CEF'99 Program

Concurrent Sessions

Revised : Tue Jun 29 16:00:36 EDT 1999

Notes:
(1) Downloadable papers may be accessed by selecting their titles.
(2) There are no concurrent sessions 4.


Concurrent Sessions 1: 6/24/99 9:00-10:30

   Computational Methods in Models with Stochastic Volatility

   Games I

   Financial Econometrics I

   Stochastic Simulation in Rational Expectations

   Modeling

Concurrent Sessions 2: 6/24/99 11:00-12:30

   The Computational Complexity of Markets

   Bounded Rationality, Learning and Asset Prices

   Dynamic Optimization

   Innovation I

   Nonlinear Dynamic Models: Alternative Solution Methods and Approximation Error

Concurrent Sessions 3: 6/24/99 14:00-15:30

   Financial and Econometric Analysis of Time Series

   Environmental Economics

   Algorithms I

   Evolutionary Computing

   Heterogeneity, Private Information and Financial Intermediation

Concurrent Sessions 5: 6/25/99 8:00-9:15

   Integrated Time Series Models I

   Internet Economics I - Usage of the Internet

   Computational Econometrics and Statistics I

   Evolution of Trade and Social Networks in Agent-Based Economies

   Evolutionary Computation I - Financial Engineering

Concurrent Sessions 6: 6/25/99 9:15-10:30

   Evolutionary Computation II - Agent-Based Modelling of Financial Markets

   Models with Explicit Expectations I

   Macroeconomic Policy, Uncertainty and Rational Expectations

   Computational Econometrics and Statistics II

   Agent-Based Models of Financial Markets

Concurrent Sessions 7: 6/25/99 11:00-12:30

   Complex Dynamics, Structural Change, and Cycles

   Hysteresis in Models of Economic Analysis

   Development

   Learning, Optimizing Behavior and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Concurrent Sessions 8: 6/25/99 14:00-15:30

   Algorithms II

   Computational Econometrics and Statistics III

   Software Environments for Bayesian Econometrics

   Models with Explicit Expectations II

   Term-Structure Modeling

Concurrent Sessions 9: 6/26/99 8:00-9:30

   Option Pricing

   Models with Explicit Expectations III

   Algorithms III

   Time Series Modeling of Interest Rates

   Financial Econometrics II

Concurrent Sessions 10: 6/26/99 9:30-10:45

   Evolutionary Computation III - Agent-Based Modelling of Games

   Internet Economics II - Electronic Commerce

   Genetic Algorithms

   Neural Nets

   Models with Explicit Expectations IV

Concurrent Sessions 11: 6/26/99 11:15-12:30

   Integrated Time Series Models II

   Economics and Effective Computability

   Games II

   Computation, Dynamic Modelling and Complex Dynamics

   Optimal Monetary Policy Design

Concurrent Sessions 12: 6/26/99 14:00-15:15

   Evolutionary Computation IV - Agent-Based Modelling of Markets

   Dynamical Models of Creative Destruction

   Macro-Econometrics

   Time Series

Concurrent Sessions 13: 6/26/99 16:45-18:15

   Evaluation of Software for Economists

   Computational Econometrics and Statistics IV

   Dimensionality

   Financial Modeling

   Agent-Based Modeling

   



Concurrent Sessions, Block 1: 6/24/99 9:00-10:30


Session 1.1, 6/24/99, 9:00-10:30 Fulton 115
Computational Methods in Models with Stochastic Volatility


Chair: Antonio Mele, THEMA
Organized by: Filippo Altissimo, Bank of Italy
Fabio Fornari, Bank of Italy
 
Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous Time Interest-Rate Models
      Christopher T. Downing, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve cdowning@frb.gov
 
Stochastic Volatility: Univariate and Multivariate Extensions
      Eric Jacquier, Boston College eric.jacquier@bc.edu
      Nicholas G. Polson, University of Chicago ngp@gsbngp.uchicago.edu
      Peter Rossi, University of Chicago per@gsbper.uchicago.edu
 
ARCH Models and Option Pricing: the Continuous-Time Connection
      Antonio Mele, THEMA antonio.mele@u-paris10.fr
      Fabio Fornari, Bank of Italy alti.3441@interbusiness.it

Session 1.2, 6/24/99, 9:00-10:30 Fulton 117
Games I


Chair: Jane M. Binner, Nottingham Business School
 
Learning to Trust: Uncovering Unobserved Multi-Period Behavioral Strategies from Observed Stage Game Actions Using Finite Automata
      Jim Warnick, University of Pittsburgh jcwst22+@pitt.edu
      Robert L. Slonim, Case Western Reserve University rls18@guinness.som.cwru.edu
 
Moving-Horizon Control in Dynamic Games
      W. A. van den Broek, Tilburg University w.a.vdnbroek@kub.nl
 
Learning Schemes in Evolutionary Game Theory: Application to a Model of Entry in a Regulated Market
      Iqbal Adjali, BT Laboratories iqbal.adjali@bt.com
      A. A. Reeder, BT Laboratories tony.reeder@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
      David Collings, BT Laboratories david.collings@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
      M. H. Lyons, BT Laboratories michael.lyons@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
      A. Varley, BT Laboratories maupx@csv.warwick.ac.uk
 
The Use of Qualitative Research to Develop a Computational Model for Dynamic Entry Deterrence in an Emerging Market
      Jane M. Binner, Nottingham Business School jane.binner@ntu.ac.uk
      C. B. Lee, University of Derby c.b.lee@derby.ac.uk
      W. D. Murphy, University of Derby W.D.Murphy@derby.ac.uk
      L. R. Fletcher, University of Salford l.r.fletcher@cms.salford.ac.uk

Session 1.3, 6/24/99, 9:00-10:30 Fulton 145
Financial Econometrics I


Chair: Dietmar P. J. Leisen, Stanford University
 
Finite Element Methods in Bond and Option Pricing
      Juergen Topper, Arthur Andersen and University of Hannover juergen.topper@de.arthurandersen.com
 
Performance of a Hedged Dynamic Portfolio Model in the Presence of Extreme Events
      Rosella Giacometti, Università di Bergamo rosella@ibguniv.unibg.it
      Rosella Castellano, Università di Macerata castellano@unimc.it
 
Valuation of Barrier Options in a Black-Scholes Setup with Jump Risk
      Dietmar P. J. Leisen, Stanford University and University of Bonn leisen@hoover.stanford.edu

Session 1.4, 6/24/99, 9:00-10:30 Fulton 150
Stochastic Simulation in Rational Expectations


Chair: Michel Juillard, University Paris VIII and CEPREMAP
Organized by: Michel Juillard, University Paris VIII and CEPREMAP
Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund
 
An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Simple Models of the Output-Inflation Process
      Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund dlaxton@imf.org
 
Is It Worth Reducing Exclusion?
      Fabrice Collard, CEPREMAP fabrice.collard@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      Patrick Fève, Nantes University and CEPREMAP patrick.feve@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      François Langot, University of Le Mans and CEPREMAP francois.langot@cepremap.cnrs.fr
 
Mathematical and Numerical Analysis of a Type of Monetary Model
      Jenny Li, Pennsylvania State University li@math.psu.edu
 
Stochastic Simulations of a Non-Linear Phillips Curve Model
      Michel Juillard, University Paris VIII and CEPREMAP michel.juillard@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      Fabrice Collard, CEPREMAP fabrice.collard@cepremap.cnrs.fr

Session 1.5, 6/24/99, 9:00-10:30 Fulton 235
Modeling


Chair: Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE
 
A Primal-Dual Decomposition-Based Interior-Point Approach to Two-Stage Stochastic Programming
      Arjan B. Berkelaar, Erasmus University berkelaar@few.eur.nl
      K. P. Bart Oldenkamp, Erasmus University oldenkamp@few.eur.nl
      Cees L. Dert, Free University of Amsterdam c.dert@abnamro.nl
 
Modeling the Economics of Internet Companies
      Deniz Yuret, Massachusetts Institute of Technology deniz@ai.mit.edu
      Ayla Ogus, Boston College ogus@bcaxp1.bc.edu
      Michael de la Maza, Redfire Capital Management Group redfiregrp@aol.com
 
Government-Private Ownership Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets
      Sunanda Roy, University of Southern California rsunanda@rcf.usc.edu
 
Solving Large and Small Models on Microcomputers
      Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE jean-louis.brillet@insee.fr



Concurrent Sessions, Block 2: 6/24/99 11:00-12:30


Session 2.1, 6/24/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 115
The Computational Complexity of Markets


Chair: Blake Le Baron, Brandeis University
Organized by: Nienke Oomes, University of Wisconsin
Koye Somefun, University of Notre Dame
 
The Complexity of Exchange
      Rob Axtell, Brookings Institution and Santa Fe Institute raxtell@brook.edu
 
Markets as Complex Distributed Networks: Implications for Efficiency and Inequality
      Nienke Oomes, University of Wisconsin noomes@ssc.wisc.edu
 
Towards an Automata Approach of (Institutional) Economics
      Koye Somefun, University of Notre Dame dsomefun@darwin.cc.nd.edu
      Philip Mirowski, University of Notre Dame philip.e.mirowski.1@nd.edu

Session 2.2, 6/24/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 117
Bounded Rationality, Learning and Asset Prices


Chair: James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Organized by: Emilio Barucci, University of Florence
Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
 
Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models
      Kaushik Mitra, University of Helsinki kaushik.mitra@helsinki.fi
      Seppo Honkapohja, University of Helsinki seppo.honkapohja@helsinki.fi
 
Heterogeneous Expectations, Market Dynamics, and Social Welfare
      SaangJoon Baak, International University of Japan sbaak@iuj.ac.jp
 
Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model
      Xue-Zhong He, University of Technology, Sydney tony.he1@uts.edu.au
      Carl Chiarella, University of Technology, Sydney carl.chiarella@uts.edu.au
 
Learning and Excess Volatility
      James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis bullard@stls.frb.org
      John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh jduffy+@pitt.edu

Session 2.3, 6/24/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 145
Dynamic Optimization


Chair: Jorge Soares, George Washington University
Organized by: Emilio Cerda, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Francisco Alvarez, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
 
Asymmetric Observation Errors in Optimal Control of Stochastic Quadratic Linear Systems and Application to Modelling Volatility
      Rosario Romera, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid mrromera@est-econ.uc3m.es
      Esther Ruiz, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ortega@est-econ.uc3m.es
 
Treasury Bill Auctions in Spain: an Optimal-Control Approach
      Francisco Alvarez, Universidad Complutense de Madrid eccua17@emducms1.sis.ucm.es
      Emilio Cerda, Universidad Complutense de Madrid ececo08@emducms1.sis.ucm.es
      Cristina Mazon, Universidad Complutense de Madrid cmazon@ccee.ucm.es
 
Beyond Serrano vs. Priest: National Funding of Education
      Jorge Soares, George Washington University jsoares@gwu.edu

Session 2.4, 6/24/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 150
Innovation I


Chair: G. R. Bassiry, California State University, Santa Barbara
 
The Need for a New Microeconomic Paradigm
      Alfred Norman, University of Texas, Austin norman@eco.utexas.edu
      Mridul Chowdhury, University of Texas, Austin mridul@cs.utexas.edu
      Khurram Mahmood, University of Texas, Austin kmahmood@eco.utexas.edu
 
Organizational Structure and Perpetual Innovation: A Computational Model of a Retail Chain
      Myong-Hun Chang, Cleveland State University m.chang@popmail.csuohio.edu
      Joseph Harrington, Jr., Johns Hopkins University joe.harrington@jhu.edu
 
Institutions and Innovation Diffusion
      Francesco Luna, University of Venice fluna@unive.it
      Andrea Zanatta, University of Venice zanattaandrea@iol.it
 
Evolution of Networks and the Diffusion of New Technology
      Glenn T. Mitchell, University of California, Santa Barbara mitchell@econ.ucsb.edu

Session 2.5, 6/24/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 235
Nonlinear Dynamic Models: Alternative Solution Methods and Approximation Error


Chair: Baoline Chen, University of Indiana
Organized by: Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
 
Inaccuracy of Loglinear Approximation in Welfare Calculations: the Case of International Risk Sharing
      Jinill Kim, University of Virginia jk9n@virginia.edu
      Sunghyun Henry Kim, Brandeis University hkim@brandeis.edu
 
Inaccuracy of Loglinearization in Welfare Calculations: Complete vs. Incomplete Market Economies
      Jinill Kim, University of Virginia jk9n@virginia.edu
      Sunghyun Henry Kim, Brandeis University hkim@brandeis.edu
      Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board levina@frb.gov
 
Determining Short-Run Adjustments: Sensitivity to Non-Linearities in a Representative Agent Framework
      Peter J. Stemp, University of Melbourne p.stemp@ecomfac.unimelb.edu.au
      Ric D. Herbert, University of Western Sydney r.herbert@uws.edu.au
 
Implicit Programming and the Stable Manifold for Optimal Growth Problems
      Baoline Chen, University of Indiana bchen@indiana.edu
      Robert A. Becker, Indiana University becker@indiana.edu



Concurrent Sessions, Block 3: 6/24/99 14:00-15:30


Session 3.1, 6/24/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 115
Financial and Econometric Analysis of Time Series


Chair: Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Oxford
Organized by: Jurgen A. Doornik, Nuffield College, Oxford
 
Fast Estimation of Parameters in State Space Models
      Siem Jan Koopman, CentER, Tilburg s.j.koopman@kub.nl
 
Time-Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues
      Marius Ooms, Erasmus University, Rotterdam ooms@few.eur.nl
      Björn de Groot, Erasmus University, Rotterdam 144192bg@student.eur.nl
      Siem Jan Koopman, CentER, Tilburg s.j.koopman@kub.nl
 
Forecasting Volatility under Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Model via Reprojection
      Pieter J. van der Sluis, Tilburg University sluis@kub.nl
      George J. Jiang, Groningen University g.jiang@eco.rug.nl
 
Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures
      Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Oxford hans-martin.krolzig@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
      David Hendry, Nuffield College, Oxford david.hendry@nuffield.oxford.ac.uk

Session 3.2, 6/24/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 117
Environmental Economics


Chair: Christophe Deissenberg, University of Aix-Marseille II
Organized by: Christophe Deissenberg, University of Aix-Marseille II
 
Achieving Desired Performance through Constraint: Application to Pollution-Production Cycles
      Christopher Pawlowski, University of California, Berkeley chrisp@newton.berkeley.edu
 
Knowledge Spillover, Transboundary Pollution, and Growth
      Süheyla Özyildirim, Bilkent University suheyla@bilkent.edu.tr
      Nedim M. Alemdar, Bilkent University alemdar@bilkent.edu.tr
 
The Influence of Clean Up Capital Subsidies in Environmental Optimal Control Models with Complex Dynamics
      Christophe Deissenberg, University of Aix-Marseille II deissenb@romarin.univ-aix.fr
      Laurent Cellarier, University of Nantes and USC cellarie@almaak.usc.edu

Session 3.3, 6/24/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 145
Algorithms I


Chair: Peter A. Zadrozny, Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
Extending the High-Level Architecture Paradigm to Economic Simulation
      James A. Calpin, MITRE Corporation calpinj@ajax.mitre.org
      Marnie R. Salisbury, MITRE Corporation marnie@mitre.org
      John A. Vitkevich, Jr., MITRE Corporation jvitkev@mitre.org
      David Woodward, MITRE Corporation woodward@mitre.org
 
Swapping the Nested Fixed-Point Algorithm: a Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models
      Victor Aguirregabiria, University of Chicago vaguirre@midway.uchicago.edu
      Pedro Mira, CEMFI mira@cemfi.es
 
A Technique for Solving Rational-Expectations Models
      Jean-Louis Brillet, INSEE jean-louis.brillet@insee.fr
 
Perturbation Solution of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models
      Peter A. Zadrozny, Bureau of Labor Statistics zadrozny_p@bls.gov
      Baoline Chen, Rutgers University baoline@crab.rutgers.edu

Session 3.4, 6/24/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 150
Evolutionary Computing


Chair: Han La Poutre, CWI Amsterdam
Organized by: Han La Poutre, CWI Amsterdam
 
Governance and Matching
      Tomas Klos, University of Groningen t.b.klos@bdk.rug.nl
 
A Prisoner's Dilemma Game Causes Technical Trading
      Shareen Joshi, Santa Fe Institute and Reed College shareen@santafe.edu
      Jeffrey Parker, Reed College jeffrey.parker@directory.reed.edu
      Mark Bedau, Reed College mab@reed.edu
 
Competing R&D Strategies in an Evolutionary Industry Model
      Murat Yildizoglu, Louis Pasteur University yildi@cournot.u-strasbg.fr
 
The Influence of Evolutionary Selection Schemes on the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma
      David van Bragt, CWI Amsterdam bragt@cwi.nl
      Cees van Kemenade, CWI Amsterdam kemenade@cwi.nl
      Han La Poutre, CWI Amsterdam han.la.poutre@cwi.nl

Session 3.5, 6/24/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 235
Heterogeneity, Private Information and Financial Intermediation


Chair: Marcelo Bianconi, Tufts University
Organized by: Marcelo Bianconi, Tufts University
 
On Government Credit Programs
      Marco Espinosa-Vega, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta marco.espinosa@atl.frb.org
      Bruce D. Smith, University of Texas, Austin bsmith@mundo.eco.utexas.edu
      Chong K. Yip, Chinese University of Hong Kong chongkeeyip@cuhk.edu.hk
 
Divorce and Savings
      Carol Scotese Lehr, Virginia Commonwealth University cslehr@vcu.edu
 
Optimal Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Is There a Case for Inflation?
      Theodore Palivos, Louisiana State University eopali@unix1.sncc.lsu.edu
 
Heterogeneity, Efficiency, and Asset Allocation with Endogenous Labor Supply: The Static Case
      Marcelo Bianconi, Tufts University mbiancon@emerald.tufts.edu



Concurrent Sessions, Block 5: 6/25/99 8:00-9:15


Session 5.1, 6/25/99, 8:00-9:15 Fulton 115
Integrated Time Series Models I


Chair: Uwe Hassler, Free University Berlin
Organized by: Uwe Hassler, Free University Berlin
 
Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work
      Mehmet Caner, Bilkent University mcaner@bilkent.edu.tr
      Lutz Kilian, University of Michigan lkilian@umich.edu
 
S-Estimation in the Linear Regression Model with Long-Memory Error Terms
      Philipp Sibbertsen, University of Dortmund sibberts@amadeus.statistik.uni-dortmund.de
 
Asymptotic Inference for Nonstationary Fractionally Integrated Processes
      Francesc Marmol, Universidad Carlos III fmarmol@est-econ.uc3m.es
      Juan J. Dolado, Universidad Carlos III dolado@eco.uc3m.es

Session 5.2, 6/25/99, 8:00-9:15 Fulton 117
Internet Economics I - Usage of the Internet


Chair: Mingzhi Li, University of Texas at Austin
Organized by: Thorsten Wichmann, Berlecon Research
 
The Nature of Markets in the World Wide Web
      Bernardo A. Huberman, Xerox PARC huberman@parc.xerox.com
      Lada A. Adamic, Xerox PARC ladamic@parc.xerox.com
 
Restart Strategies and Internet Congestion
      Bernardo A. Huberman, Xerox PARC huberman@parc.xerox.com
      Sebastian M. Maurer, Xerox PARC semaurer@parc.xerox.com
 
Estimating Internet Users' Demand Characteristics
      Mingzhi Li, University of Texas at Austin ming@eco.utexas.edu
      Alok Gupta, University of Connecticut alok@sba.uconn.edu
      Boris Jukic, George Mason University bjukic@som.gmu.edu
      Dale O. Stahl, University of Texas at Austin stahl@eco.utexas.edu
      Andrew B. Whinston, University of Texas at Austin abw@uts.cc.utexas.edu

Session 5.3, 6/25/99, 8:00-9:15 Fulton 145
Computational Econometrics and Statistics I


Chair: David A. Belsley, Boston College
Organized by: David A. Belsley, Boston College
 
Efficient Monte Carlo Likelihood Analysis of Panel Data Models with Unobserved Heterogeneity in Time and across Individual Units
      Jean-François Richard, University of Pittsburgh fantin+@pitt.edu
 
Calculating the Density and Distribution Function of a Singly and Doubly Noncentral F Random Variable
      Marc Paolella, Christian Albrechts University paolella@stat-econ.uni-kiel.de
      Ronald W. Butler, Colorado State University walrus@statsun.stat.colostate.edu
 
Median Unbiased Forecasts for Highly Persistent Autoregressive Processes
      Nikolay Gospodinov, Boston College gospodin@bc.edu

Session 5.4, 6/25/99, 8:00-9:15 Fulton 150
Evolution of Trade and Social Networks in Agent-Based Economies


Chair: Leigh Tesfatsion, Iowa State University
Organized by: Leigh Tesfatsion, Iowa State University
 
Sector-Driven Co-Evolution of Regional Networks and Agent Locations
      Catherine Dibble, University of California, Santa Barbara cath@econ.ucsb.edu
 
Backwash and Spread: Effects of Trade Networks in a Space of Agents who Learn by Doing
      Roger A. McCain, Drexel University mccainra@drexel.edu
 
Market Power Effects on Worker-Employer Network Formation in Evolutionary Labor Markets with Adaptive Search
      Leigh Tesfatsion, Iowa State University tesfatsi@iastate.edu

Session 5.5, 6/25/99, 8:00-9:15 Fulton 235
Evolutionary Computation I - Financial Engineering


Chair: Chun-Feng Lu, Masterlink Securities Corporation
Organized by: Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University
Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University
 
The Role of Automated Semiotic Classifications in Economic Domains
      Ana Marostica, University of Buenos Aires amarost@econ.uba.ar
      Fernando Tohme, Universidad Nacional del Sur ftohme@criba.edu.ar
 
Genetic Algorithms and Trading Strategies: New Evidences from Financially Interesting Time Series
      Chueh-Inong Taso, National Chengchi University g5751002@grad.cc.nccu.edu.tw
 
Would Evolutionary Computation Help for Designs of Artificial Neural Nets in Financial Applications?
      Chun-Feng Lu, Masterlink Securities Corporation nancylu@email.masterlink.com.tw



Concurrent Sessions, Block 6: 6/25/99 9:15-10:30


Session 6.1, 6/25/99, 9:15-10:30 Fulton 115
Evolutionary Computation II - Agent-Based Modelling of Financial Markets


Chair: Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University
Organized by: Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University
Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University
 
Evolutionary Model of the Exchange Rate Behavior
      Jasmina Arifovic, Simon Fraser University arifovic@sfu.ca
 
Heterogeneous Beliefs, Intelligent Agents, and Allocative Efficiency in an Artificial Stock Market
      Jing Yang, Concordia University jingy@vax2.concordia.ca
 
Evolving Traders and the Faculty of the Business School: A New Architecture of the Artificial Stock Market
      Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University chchen@cc.nccu.edu.tw
      Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University g3258501@grad.cc.nccu.edu.tw

Session 6.2, 6/25/99, 9:15-10:30 Fulton 117
Models with Explicit Expectations I


Chair: Sean Holly, University of Cambridge
Organized by: Michael Binder, University of Maryland
Peter Tinsley, University of Cambridge
 
Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis
      Jeff Fuhrer, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston jeff.fuhrer@bos.frb.org
      Arturo Estrella, Federal Reserve Bank of New York arturo.estrella@ny.frb.org
 
An Examination of How Monetary Policy Influences Fiscal Policy in the Presence of Uncertainty
      Doug Hostland, Department of Finance, Canada hostland.douglas@fin.gc.ca
      Chris Matier, Department of Finance, Canada matier.chris@fin.gc.ca
 
Linear Feedback Rules in Non-Linear Models with Rational Expectations
      Sean Holly, University of Cambridge sean.holly@econ.cam.ac.uk
      Paul Turner, University of Sheffield p.turner@sheffield.ac.uk
      Luisa Corrado, University of Cambridge lc242@econ.cam.ac.uk

Session 6.3, 6/25/99, 9:15-10:30 Fulton 145
Macroeconomic Policy, Uncertainty and Rational Expectations


Chair: Hans Amman, University of Amsterdam
Organized by: Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
 
Why is the Fed So Reluctant to React?
      Robert Tetlow, Federal Reserve Board rtetlow@frb.gov
      Peter von zur Muehlen, Federal Reserve Board pmuehlen@frb.gov
 
Could the Fed Have Improved Price Stability?
      Walter K. Waymeyer, waltkw@aol.com
      Donald S. Allen, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis allen@stls.frb.org
 
Stochastic Policy Design for Models with Rational Expectations and Time-Varying Parameters
      Hans Amman, University of Amsterdam amman@fee.uva.nl
      David Kendrick, University of Texas kendrick@eco.utexas.edu

Session 6.4, 6/25/99, 9:15-10:30 Fulton 150
Computational Econometrics and Statistics II


Chair: Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College Management School
Organized by: David A. Belsley, Boston College
 
Regional Variations in Median Household Income: a Neural Network Approach
      J. H. Chesnut, United States Naval Academy m991050@nadn.navy.mil
 
Specification Search and Stability Analysis
      J. Guillermo Llorente, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid guiller@uam.es
      J. del Hoyo, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid juan.hoyo@uam.es
 
On the Identification of Cointegrated Systems in Small Samples: Practical Procedures with an Application to UK Wages and Prices
      Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College Management School s.g.hall@ic.ac.uk
      Jennifer V. Greenslade, Bank of England
      S. G. Brian Henry, London Business School bhenry@lbs.ac.uk

Session 6.5, 6/25/99, 9:15-10:30 Fulton 235
Agent-Based Models of Financial Markets


Chair: Blake LeBaron, Brandeis University
Organized by: Andrew W. Lo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
 
Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution
      J. Doyne Farmer, Prediction Company jdf@predict.com
 
Just Another Day in the Inter-bank Foreign Exchange Market
      Rajesh Chakrabarti, The Anderson School at UCLA rchakrab@anderson.ucla.edu
 
Information Dissemination and Aggregation in Asset Markets with Simple Intelligent Traders
      Andrew Lo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology alo@life.ai.mit.edu
      Nicholas Chan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology nicholas@ai.mit.edu
      Blake LeBaron, Brandeis University blebaron@brandeis.edu
      Tomaso Poggio, Massachusetts Institute of Technology tp-temp@ai.mit.edu



Concurrent Sessions, Block 7: 6/25/99 11:00-12:30


Session 7.1, 6/25/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 115
Complex Dynamics, Structural Change, and Cycles


Chair: Carl Chiarella, University of Technology, Sydney
Organized by: Emilio Barucci, University of Florence
Theo Eicher, University of Washington in Seattle
 
Network Externalities and the Path Dependence of Markets: Will Bill Gates Make It?
      Max Keilbach, ZEW and Technical University of Berlin keilbach@zew.de
 
The Evolution of Trading Rules in an Artificial Stock Market
      Mark Howard, University of Massachusetts mmh@econs.umass.edu
 
Population Dynamics and Labour Force Participation within Goodwin Type Growth-Cycle Models
      Piero Manfredi, University of Pisa manfredi@ec.unipi.it
      Luciano Fanti, University of Pisa lfanti@ec.unipi.it
 
Applying Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Debt Effects and Debt Deflation
      Carl Chiarella, University of Technology, Sydney carl.chiarella@uts.edu.au
      Peter Flaschel, University of Bielefeld pflaschel@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de

Session 7.2, 6/25/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 117
Hysteresis in Models of Economic Analysis


Chair: A. J. Hughes Hallett, University of Strathclyde
Organized by: Laura Piscitelli, University of Strathclyde
A. J. Hughes Hallett, University of Strathclyde
 
Hysteresis and Unemployment: a Preliminary Investigation
      Rod Cross, University of Strathclyde economics@strath.ac.uk
      Julia Darby, University of Glasgow j.darby@socsci.gla.ac.uk
      Jonathan Ireland, University of Strathclyde j.m.ireland@strath.ac.uk
      Laura Piscitelli, University of Strathclyde laura.piscitelli@strath.ac.uk
 
Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty
      Matthias Göcke, University of Munster 09mago@wiwi.uni-muenster.de
      Ansgar Belke, University of Bochum ansbel@aol.com
 
Hysteresis in Economic Systems
      Rod Cross, University of Strathclyde economics@strath.ac.uk
      Michael Grinfeld, University of Strathclyde michael@conley.maths.strath.ac.uk
      Laura Piscitelli, University of Strathclyde hbp95187@strath.ac.uk

Session 7.3, 6/25/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 145
Development


Chair: Meral Karasulu, International Monetary Fund and Bogaziçi University
 
A Dynamic Structural Analysis of Consumer Demand for Automobiles in Sydney, Australia, 1981-1985
      Michael Sandfort, Southern Methodist University sandfort@post.cis.smu.edu
 
Economic Repercussions of Environmental Regulations in Poland: the Case of the Second Sulfur Protocol
      Olga Kiuila, Warsaw University kiuila@wne.uw.edu.pl
 
Inequality and the Growth Process: An Essay on Development Dynamics
      Aminur Rahman, University of Oxford aminur.rahman@spc.oxford.ac.uk
 
Asymmetric Shocks and Long-Run Economic Performances across Italian Regions
      Rosella Giacometti, Università di Bergamo rosella@ibguniv.unibg.it
      Dino Pinelli, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei pinelli.dino@feem.it

Session 7.4, 6/25/99, 11:00-12:30 Fulton 235
Learning, Optimizing Behavior and Macroeconomic Dynamics


Chair: Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
Organized by: Emilio Barucci, University of Florence
Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
 
Learning and the Law of Iterated Projections
      Bartholomew Moore, Fordham University baya315@aol.com
      Huntley Schaller, Carleton University schaller@ccs.carleton.ca
 
The Dynamics of Rational Learning Processes with Asymmetric Information
      Maik Heinemann, Universität Hannover maik@vwl.uni-hannover.de
 
Learning and Control: Optimal Decision-Making in a Changing Economic Environment
      Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board vwieland@frb.gov



Concurrent Sessions, Block 8: 6/25/99 14:00-15:30


Session 8.1, 6/25/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 115
Algorithms II


Chair: Gary Anderson, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve
 
Dynamic Programming over a Continuous and Disjoint Multidimensional Search Space with an Infinite Time Horizon
      Richard E. Hawkins, Iowa State University hawk@eyry.econ.iastate.edu
      Jack Dekkers, Iowa State University jdekkers@iastate.edu
      James B. Kleibenstein, Iowa State University cpease@iastate.edu
 
The El Farol Problem and the Internet: Congestion and Coordination Failure
      Ann M. Bell, Caelum Research abell@mail.arc.nasa.gov
      William A. Sethares, University of Wisconsin, Madison sethares@ece.wisc.edu
 
Gains from Combining the Anderson-Moore Algorithm and Julliard's Stack Algorithm
      Gary Anderson, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve m1gsa00@frb.gov

Session 8.2, 6/25/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 117
Computational Econometrics and Statistics III


Chair: Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval
Organized by: David A. Belsley, Boston College
 
Change of Measure in Monte Carlo Integration via Gibbs Sampling with an application to Stochastic Volatility Models
      Filippo Altissimo, Bank of Italy alti.3441@interbusiness.it
 
Bayesian Analysis of the Stochastic Switching Regression Model Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
      Maria Odejar, Kansas State University mariaana@ksu.edu
 
Parameter Sensistivity and Its Cyclical Consequences in Macroeconometric Models
      Ullrich Heilemann, Universität Duisburg and RWI heil@rwi-essen.de
      Heinz Josef Münsch, RWI muench@rwi-essen.de
      Michael B. E. Ackermann, Universität Duisburg and RWI ackerman@rwi-essen.de
 
Simulation Based Finite- and Large-Sample Inference Methods in Simultaneous Equations
      Jean-Marie Dufour, Université de Montréal dufour@CRDE.umontreal.ca
      Lynda Khalaf, Université Laval lynda.khalaf@ecn.ulaval.ca

Session 8.3, 6/25/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 145
Software Environments for Bayesian Econometrics


Chair: John Geweke, University of Minnesota and FRB
Organized by: John Geweke, University of Minnesota and FRB
 
Windows Software for Bayesian MCMC Computations
      Siddhartha Chib, Washington University chib@simon.wustl.edu
 
Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models
      John Geweke, University of Minnesota and FRB geweke@atlas.socsci.umn.edu
 
Using the BACC Software for Bayesian Inference
      William McCausland, University of Minnesota mccaus@atlas.socsci.umn.edu
 
Bayesian Analysis of Econometrics Systems with Discrete Variables and Inequality Constraints
      Asli Ogunc, Louisiana State University aogunc@lsu.edu
      Dek Terrell, Louisiana State University mdterre@unix1.sncc.lsu.edu
      R. Carter Hill, Louisiana State University eohill@unix1.sncc.lsu.edu

Session 8.4, 6/25/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 150
Models with Explicit Expectations II


Chair: Sharon Kozicki, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Organized by: Michael Binder, University of Maryland
Peter Tinsley, University of Cambridge
 
Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
      Peter Isard, International Monetary Fund pisard@imf.org
      Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund dlaxton@imf.org
      Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte.Eliasson@hhs.se
 
Inflation Targeting: The Delegation and Co-Ordination of Monetary Policy
      S. G. Brian Henry, London Business School bhenry@lbs.ac.uk
      Stephen G. Hall, Imperial College s.g.hall@ic.ac.uk
      James Nixon, London Business School jnixon@lbs.ac.uk
 
Implications of the Zero Bound on Interest Rates for the Design of Monetary Policy Rules
      David Reifschneider, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System dreifschneider@frb.gov
      John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System jwilliams@frb.gov
 
Permanent and Transitory Policy Shocks in a VAR with Asymmetric Information
      Sharon Kozicki, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City skozicki@frbkc.org
      Peter Tinsley, University of Cambridge peter.tinsley@econ.cam.ac.uk

Session 8.5, 6/25/99, 14:00-15:30 Fulton 235
Term-Structure Modeling


Chair: Doug Rolph, University of Washington
 
Robust Estimation of GARMA Model Parameters and Application to Cointegration among Interest Rates of Industrialized Countries
      Raji Ramachandran, Florida State University bhethana@worldnet.att.net
      Paul Beaumont, Florida State University beaumont@scri.fsu.edu
 
Term Structure Estimation: an Implied Norm Approach Negative Option Prices -- A Puzzle or Just Noise?
      Ioulia Ioffe, York University iioulia@pascal.math.yorku.ca
      Alexandra E. MacKay, University of Toronto amackay@mgmt.utoronto.ca
      Eliezer Z. Prisman, York University eprisman@yorku.ca
 
Federal Funds Futures, Spot Rates, and Expected Changes in Monetary Policy
      Doug Rolph, University of Washington rolph@u.washington.edu



Concurrent Sessions, Block 9: 6/26/99 8:00-9:30


Session 9.1, 6/26/99, 8:00-9:30 Fulton 115
Option Pricing


Chair: Manfred Gilli, University of Geneva
 
Hedging Options under Transaction Costs and Stochastic Volatility
      Roy Kouwenberg, Erasmus University Rotterdam kouwenberg@few.eur.nl
      Jacek Gondzio, University of Edinburgh gondzio@maths.ed.ac.uk
      Ton Vorst, Erasmus University Rotterdam vorst@few.eur.nl
 
Stochastic Volatility and the Informational Content of Option Prices: Empirical Analysis
      Antonio Mele, THEMA Antonio.Mele@u-paris10.fr
      Fabio Fornari, Bank of Italy alti.3441@interbusiness.it
 
Discrete-Time Continuous-State Interest Rate Models
      Michael Sullivan, Florida International University sullivan@fiu.edu
 
Numerical Methods in Multivariate Option Pricing
      Manfred Gilli, University of Geneva manfred.gilli@metri.unige.ch
      Kai Hencken, University of Basel
      Philippe Huber and Evis Kellezi, University of Geneva
      Matthias Kroedel, University of Geneva matthias.kroedel@metri.unige.ch
      Giorgio Pauletto, Yale University and University of Geneva giorgio.pauletto@metri.unige.ch

Session 9.2, 6/26/99, 8:00-9:30 Fulton 117
Models with Explicit Expectations III


Chair: Jang-Ting Guo, University of California, Riverside
Organized by: Michael Binder, University of Maryland
Sharon Kozicki, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
 
Investment Under Uncertainty and Economic Growth: A Quantitative Investigation
      Michael Binder, University of Maryland binder@glue.umd.edu
 
Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of a Development Trap?
      Sergey Slobodyan, Washington University sergey@wueconc.wustl.edu
 
Business Cycles and Interdependent Expectations
      Burkhard Flieth, Max Planck Institute flieth@commerce.uq.edu.au
      John Foster, University of Queensland foster@commerce.uq.edu.au
 
Consumers' Sunspots, Animal Spirits, and Economic Fluctuations
      Marcelle Chauvet, University of California, Riverside chauvet@mail.ucr.edu
      Jang-Ting Guo, University of California, Riverside guojt@mail.ucr.edu

Session 9.3, 6/26/99, 8:00-9:30 Fulton 145
Algorithms III


Chair: Mark Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
 
Computational Algorithms for Vertical Complementarity Arising in Finance
      Berç Rustem, Imperial College br@doc.ic.ac.uk
      Tetsuya Noguchi, Imperial College tn4@doc.ic.ac.uk
      Michael Selby, Imperial College mjpselby@viningsparks.com
 
A Numerical Optimization Algorithm for Identification of Policy Options to Rehabilitate a Publicly Managed, Pay-As-You-Go Based Pension System
      Serdar Sayan, Bilkent University sayan@bilkent.edu.tr
      Arzdar Kiraci, Bilkent University arzdar@bilkent.edu.tr
 
Extending the Computational Horizon: Effective Distributed Resource-Bounded Computation for Intractable Problems
      Harry J. Paarsch, University of Iowa hjp@paarsch.biz.uiowa.edu
      Alberto M. Segre, University of Iowa segre@dollar.biz.uiowa.edu
 
Consumption and Asset Prices with Recursive Preferences: Continuous-Time Approximations to Discrete-Time Models
      Mark Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta me.fisher@atl.frb.org

Session 9.4, 6/26/99, 8:00-9:30 Fulton 150
Time Series Modeling of Interest Rates


Chair: Meral Karasulu, International Monetary Fund and Bogaziçi University
Organized by: Basma Bekdache, Wayne State University
 
The Application of the Kalman Filter to the Fisher Equation: Italian and German Term Structure of Interest Rates
      Claudia Panseri, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei panseri.claudia@feem.it
      Giovanni Urga, University of Bergamo gurga@lbs.ac.uk
      Annalisa Cristini, University of Bergamo annalisa@unibg.it
 
Real Interest Rates and Real Exchange Rates : Evidence from Indexed Bonds
      Douglas Laxton, International Monetary Fund dlaxton@imf.org
      Michael Bleany, University of Nottingham lezmb@len1.econ.nottingham.ac.uk
 
Long Memory Characteristics of the Distribution of Treasury Security Yields, Returns, and Volatility
      Robert A. Connolly, University of North Carolina connollr@icarus.bschool.unc.edu
      Nuray Güner, Middle East Technical University nguner@man.metu.edu.tr
 
The Fisher Equation in the Context of Fractional Cointegration
      Basma Bekdache, Wayne State University bbekdac@econ.wayne.edu
      Christopher F. Baum, Boston College baum@bc.edu

Session 9.5, 6/26/99, 8:00-9:30 Fulton 235
Financial Econometrics II


Chair: Mark Kamstra, Simon Fraser University
 
Nonparametric Modeling of Stock Returns Constrained by a Model of the Financial-Real Interaction
      Peter Woehrmann, University of Bielefeld pwoehrmann@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de
      Willi Semmler, University of Bielefeld wsemmler@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de
 
Modeling a Time-Varying Order Statistic
      Simone Manganelli, University of California, San Diego smangane@ucsd.edu
      Robert F. Engle, University of California, San Diego rengle@weber.ucsd.edu
 
Minimum-Variance Kernels and Economic Risk Premia
      Cesare Robotti, Boston College robotti@bc.edu
      Pierluigi Balduzzi, Boston College balduzzp@mail1.bc.edu
 
The Accuracy of Fundamental Stock Market Price Estimates and a Refinement to the Donaldson-Kamstra Fundamental Estimate
      Mark Kamstra, Simon Fraser University kamstra@sfu.ca
      R. Glen Donaldson, University of British Columbia glen@donaldson.commerce.ubc.ca



Concurrent Sessions, Block 10: 6/26/99 9:30-10:45


Session 10.1, 6/26/99, 9:30-10:45 Fulton 115
Evolutionary Computation III - Agent-Based Modelling of Games


Chair: Tzai-Der Wang, University of Paisley
Organized by: Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University
Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University
 
Genetic Algorithms and Economic Evolution
      Thomas Riechmann, University of Hannover riechmann@vwl.uni-hannover.de
 
Simulating the Ecology of Oligopoly Games with Genetic Algorithms
      Chih-Chi Ni, National Chengchi University g2258503@grad.cc.nccu.edu.tw
      Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University chchen@cc.nccu.edu.tw
 
A Comparison of an Oligopoly Game and the N-Person Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma
      Tzai-Der Wang, University of Paisley wang-ci0@wpmail.paisley.ac.uk
      Colin Fyfe, University of Paisley fyfe-ci0@wpmail.paisley.ac.uk
      John Paul Marney, University of Paisley marn-em0@wpmail.paisley.ac.uk

Session 10.2, 6/26/99, 9:30-10:45 Fulton 117
Internet Economics II - Electronic Commerce


Chair: Michael Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Organized by: Thorsten Wichmann, Berlecon Research
 
Bidding Strategies in Internet Yankee Auctions: Theory and Evidence
      Rafael Tenorio, University of Notre Dame tenorio.1@nd.edu
      Robert F. Easley, University of Notre Dame easley.2@nd.edu
 
Frictionless Commerce? A Comparison of Internet and Conventional Retailers
      Michael Smith, Massachusetts Institute of Technology mds@mit.edu
      Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology erikb@mit.edu

Session 10.3, 6/26/99, 9:30-10:45 Fulton 145
Genetic Algorithms


Chair: John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh
 
Statistical Evaluation of Genetic Programming
      M. A. Kaboudan, Penn State Lehigh Valley mak7@psu.edu
 
Modelling Rule- and Experience-Based Expectations Using Neuro-Fuzzy-Systems
      Stefan Kooths, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität kooths@uni-muenster.de
 
Using Symbolic Regression to Infer Strategies from Experimental Data
      John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh jduffy+@pitt.edu
      Jim Warnick, University of Pittsburgh jcwst22+@pitt.edu

Session 10.4, 6/26/99, 9:30-10:45 Fulton 150
Neural Nets


Chair: Thomas G. Wier, Northeastern State University
 
Alpha-Stable Consistent Model Specification Tests for Heavy-Tailed Neural Networks Environments
      Jonathan Hill, University of Colorado jonathan.hill@colorado.edu
 
The Nonlinear Intraday Pattern of Futures Market Exchange Rates: An Application of Neural Network Models
      Tung Liu, Ball State University tliu@bsu-cs.bsu.edu
      Chung-Ming Kuan, National Taiwan University ckuan@ccms.ntu.edu.tw
 
Neural-Network Modeling for Labor-Force Migration: a Competitive-Learning Approach
      Thomas G. Wier, Northeastern State University wier@cherokee.nsuok.edu
      Vir V. Phoha, Northeastern State University phoha@cherokee.nsuok.edu

Session 10.5, 6/26/99, 9:30-10:45 Fulton 235
Models with Explicit Expectations IV


Chair: John Landon-Lane, The University of New South Wales
Organized by: Michael Binder, University of Maryland
Sharon Kozicki, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
 
Gains From Employing Sparse Matrix Techniques in the Anderson-Moore Algorithm
      Gary Anderson, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System m1gsa00@frb.gov
 
Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting
      Nicoletta Batini, Bank of England nicoletta.batini@bankofengland.co.uk
      Edward Nelson, Bank of England edward.nelson@btinternet.com
 
Evaluating Real Business Cycle Models: the Data Transformation Problem
      John Landon-Lane, The University of New South Wales j.landon-lane@unsw.edu.au



Concurrent Sessions, Block 11: 6/26/99 11:15-12:30


Session 11.1, 6/26/99, 11:15-12:30 Fulton 115
Integrated Time Series Models II


Chair: Uwe Hassler, Free University Berlin
Organized by: Uwe Hassler, Free University Berlin
 
The Effect of Linear Time Trends on Single Equation Cointegration Testing
      Uwe Hassler, Free University Berlin uwe@wiwiss.fu-berlin.de
 
Cointegration Modeling of Expected Exchange Rates
      Robert A. Connolly, University of North Carolina connollr@icarus.bschool.unc.edu
      Paisan Limratanamongkol, University of North Carolina paisan@email.unc.edu
 
Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts
      Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Oxford hans-martin.krolzig@nuffield.oxford.ac.uk

Session 11.2, 6/26/99, 11:15-12:30 Fulton 117
Economics and Effective Computability


Chair: Francesco Luna, University of Venice
Organized by: Francesco Luna, University of Venice
 
What Can Economists Compute?
      Marcel K. Richter, University of Minnesota richter@mec.econ.umn.edu
      Kam-Chau Wong, Chinese University of Hong Kong b707721@mailserv.cuhk.edu.hk
 
Computability and Robustness of Equilibrium in Finite Games
      Kislaya Prasad, Florida State University kprasad@coss.fsu.edu
 
Production Functions with Engineering Constraints
      Francesco Luna, University of Venice fluna@unive.it

Session 11.3, 6/26/99, 11:15-12:30 Fulton 145
Games II


Chair: M. Utku Ünver, University of Pittsburgh
 
Designing a Decision Making System for a Market-Selection Game
      Hisao Ishibuchi, Osaka Prefecture University hisaoi@ie.osakafu-u.ac.jp
      Chi-Hyon Oh, Osaka Prefecture University oh@ie.osakafu-u.ac.jp
      Tomoharu Nakashima, Osaka Prefecture University nakashi@ie.osakafu-u.ac.jp
 
Backward Unraveling over Time: The Evolution of Strategic Behavior in the Entry-Level British Medical Labor Markets
      M. Utku Ünver, University of Pittsburgh umust+@pitt.edu

Session 11.4, 6/26/99, 11:15-12:30 Fulton 150
Computation, Dynamic Modelling and Complex Dynamics


Chair: Emilio Barucci, University of Florence
Organized by: Emilio Barucci, University of Florence
 
Economic Evolutionary Self-Organizing Systems: an Effective Characterization of Economic Evolution
      Fernando Tohme, Universidad Nacional del Sur ftohme@criba.edu.ar
      Silvia London, Universidad Nacional del Sur slondon@criba.edu.ar
 
Limited Computational Ability and Approximation of Dynamical Systems
      Domenico Colucci, University of Florence colucci@facec.cce.unifi.it
 
Estimating the Complexity Function of Financial Time Series: An Estimation Based on Predictive Stochastic Complexity
      Ching-Wei Tan, National Chengchi University g4258506@grad.cc.nccu.edu.tw

Session 11.5, 6/26/99, 11:15-12:30 Fulton 235
Optimal Monetary Policy Design


Chair: Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board
Organized by: Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board
 
Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts
      Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board levina@frb.gov
      Christopher J. Erceg, Federal Reserve Board ercegc@frb.gov
      Dale W. Henderson, Federal Reserve Board hendersd@frb.gov
 
Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
      Alexander L. Wolman, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond e1alw02@rich.frb.org
 
The Performance of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
      Volker Wieland, Federal Reserve Board vwieland@frb.gov
      Andrew Levin, Federal Reserve Board levina@frb.gov
      John C. Williams, Federal Reserve Board m1jcw99@frb.gov



Concurrent Sessions, Block 12: 6/26/99 14:00-15:15


Session 12.1, 6/26/99, 14:00-15:15 Fulton 115
Evolutionary Computation IV - Agent-Based Modelling of Markets


Chair: Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University
Organized by: Shu-Heng Chen, National Chengchi University
Chia-Hsuan Yeh, National Chengchi University
 
Evolving Strategic Behaviors through Competitive Interaction in the Large
      Kimitaka Uno, National Defense Academy kimi@cc.nda.ac.jp
      Akira Namatame, National Defense Academy nama@cmr4w1.cc.nda.ac.jp
 
Co-Evolution in a Competitive Market
      Masayuki Ishinishi, National Defense Academy mishi@cs.nda.ac.jp
      Akira Namatame, National Defense Academy nama@cmr4w1.cc.nda.ac.jp

Session 12.2, 6/26/99, 14:00-15:15 Fulton 117
Dynamical Models of Creative Destruction


Chair: Pierre Malgrange, CEPREMAP
Organized by: Pierre Malgrange, CEPREMAP
Raouf Boucekkine, Universidad Carlos III
 
Evidence and Theory on Asymmetries in US Aggregate Job Flows
      Fabrice Collard, CEPREMAP fabrice.collard@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      Patrick Fève, Nantes University and CEPREMAP patrick.feve@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      François Langot, University of Le Mans and CEPREMAP francois.langot@cepremap.cnrs.fr
      Corrine Perraudin, CEPREMAP perraudi@ensae.fr
 
Numerical Analysis of Some Innovation-Adoption Models with State-Dependent Lags
      E. Bengoechea, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ebb@eco.uc3m.es
      R. Boucekkine, Universite Catholique de Louvain boucekkine@ires.ucl.ac.be

Session 12.3, 6/26/99, 14:00-15:15 Fulton 145
Macro-Econometrics


Chair: Peter Ireland, Boston College
 
Dynamics of Open Economy Models: What Is the Role of the Discount Factor?
      Sunghyun Henry Kim, Brandeis University hkim@brandeis.edu
      M. Ayhan Kose, Brandeis University akose@lemberg.brandeis.edu
 
World Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Open Economies: a Multiple Shock Approach
      M. Ayhan Kose, Brandeis University akose@lemberg.brandeis.edu
      Bill Blankenau, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater blankenw@uwwvax.uww.edu
      Kei-Mu Yi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York kei-mu.yi@ny.frb.org
 
A Method for Taking Models to the Data
      Peter Ireland, Boston College peter.ireland@bc.edu

Session 12.4, 6/26/99, 14:00-15:15 Fulton 235
Time Series


Chair: Mark J. Jensen, University of Missouri
 
Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models
      Todd E. Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City tclark@frbkc.org
      Michael McCracken, Louisiana State University mmccrac@unix1.sncc.lsu.edu
 
Estimation and Computation of Long-Memory Continuous-Time Models
      Esben P. Hoeg, Aarhus School of Business eh@hha.dk
 
An Approximate Wavelet MLE of Short- and Long-Memory Parameters
      Mark J. Jensen, University of Missouri jensen@haar.econ.missouri.edu



Concurrent Sessions, Block 13: 6/26/99 16:45-18:15


Session 13.1, 6/26/99, 16:45-18:15 Fulton 115
Evaluation of Software for Economists


Chair: Charles G. Renfro, Alphametrics Corporation
Organized by: Charles G. Renfro, Alphametrics Corporation
 
Modelling Programming Languages -- Appropriate Tools?
      Ric D. Herbert, University of Western Sydney r.herbert@uws.edu.au
 
Wilkinson's Tests and Econometric Software
      B. D. McCullough, Federal Communications Commission bmccullo@fcc.gov
 
The Evaluation of Econometric Modeling Languages: Syntax and Content
      Charles G. Renfro, Alphametrics Corporation 74242.2260@compuserve.com

Session 13.2, 6/26/99, 16:45-18:15 Fulton 117
Computational Econometrics and Statistics IV


Chair: Erricos Kontoghiorghes, University of Neuchatel
Organized by: David A. Belsley, Boston College
 
Environments for Global Optimization Using Interval Arithmetic and Computational (Automatic) Differentiation
      Max E. Jerrell, Northern Arizona University max.jerrell@nau.edu
 
Estimation of Spatial Panel-Data Models Using a Minimum-Distance Estimator
      Theophile Azomahou, University Louis Pasteur azomahou@cournot.u-strasbg.fr
 
Two-Step Estimation of Discrete/Continuous Econometric Models with Interdependent Multinomial Choices
      Denis Bolduc, Université Laval denis@ecn.ulaval.ca
      Dimitri Sanga, Université Laval
 
Updating SURE Models
      Erricos Kontoghiorghes, University of Neuchatel erricos.kontoghiorghes@info.unine.ch

Session 13.3, 6/26/99, 16:45-18:15 Fulton 145
Dimensionality


Chair: Bill Goffe, University of Southern Mississippi
 
A Formalism for the Dimensional Analysis of Time Series
      Jose-Manuel Rey, Universidad Complutense de Madrid j-man@ccee.ucm.es
      Manuel Morán, Universidad Complutense de Madrid
 
Hybrid Methods for Continuous Space Dynamic Programming
      Mario J. Miranda, The Ohio State University miranda.4@osu.edu
      Paul L. Fackler, North Carolina State University fackler-pl@are1.cals.ncsu.edu
 
Estimating Stationary ARMA Models Efficiently
      Romulo A. Chumacero, University of Chile rchumace@decon.facea.uchile.cl
 
Visualizing Multi-Dimensional Functions in Economics
      Bill Goffe, University of Southern Mississippi bill.goffe@usm.edu

Session 13.4, 6/26/99, 16:45-18:15 Fulton 150
Financial Modeling


Chair: Luis M. Viceira, Harvard Business School
 
Borrowing Constraints, Portfolio Choice and Precautionary Motives: Theoretical Predictions and Empirical Complications
      Michael Haliassos, University of Cyprus haliassos@aya.yale.edu
      Christis Hassapis, University of Cyprus christis@ucy.ac.cy
 
Evolution and Time Horizons in an Agent-Based Stock Market
      Blake LeBaron, Brandeis University blebaron@brandeis.edu
 
Caution in Macroeconomic Policy: Uncertainty and the Relative Intensity of Policy
      P. Ruben Mercado, Bryn Mawr College pmercado@brynmawr.edu
      David Kendrick, University of Texas kendrick@eco.utexas.edu
 
Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor
      John Y. Campbell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology jyc@mit.edu
      Joao Cocco, Harvard University cocco@fas.harvard.edu
      Francisco Gomes, Harvard University fgomes@nber.org
      Pascal Maenhout, Harvard University pmaenhou@kuznets.fas.harvard.edu
      Luis M. Viceira, Harvard Business School lviceira@hbs.edu

Session 13.5, 6/26/99, 16:45-18:15 Fulton 235
Agent-Based Modeling


Chair: Charlotte Bruun, Aalborg University
 
Beyond Experimental Economics: Trading Institutions and Multiagent Systems
      Adolfo López Paredes, ETS Ingenieros Industriales adlo@dali.eis.uva.es
      Cesáreo Hernández Iglesias, ETS Ingenieros Industriales cesareo@dali.eis.uva.es
 
Agent Based Customer Modelling
      David Collings, BT Laboratories david.collings@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
      A. A. Reeder, BT Laboratories tony.reeder@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
      Iqbal Adjali, BT Laboratories iqbal.adjali@bt.com
      P. Crocker, BT Laboratories
      M. H. Lyons, BT Laboratories michael.lyons@bt-sys.bt.co.uk
 
Seller Automata in a Model of Exchange
      Richard Stahnke, Columbia University rws6@columbia.edu
 
Endogenous Growth in a Swarm Economy: Fighting Time, Space, and Complexity
      Charlotte Bruun, Aalborg University cbruun@socsci.auc.dk
      Francesco Luna, University of Venice fluna@unive.it

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