{smcl}
{* *! version 1.0 31ene2017}{...}
{findalias asfradohelp}{...}
{vieweralsosee "" "--"}{...}
{vieweralsosee "[R] help" "help help"}{...}
{viewerjumpto "Syntax" "pobrezaECU##syntax"}{...}
{viewerjumpto "Description" "pobrezaECU##description"}{...}
{viewerjumpto "Options" "pobrezaECU##options"}{...}
{viewerjumpto "Remarks" "pobrezaECU##remarks"}{...}
{viewerjumpto "Examples" "pobrezaECU##examples"}{...}
{title:Title}

{phang}
{bf:pobrezaECU} {hline 2} Predict poverty and extreme poverty for Ecuador.


{marker syntax}{...}
{title:Syntax}

{p 8 17 2}
{cmdab:pobrezaECU} year quarter

{synoptset 20 tabbed}{...}
{synoptline}
{syntab:Arguments*}
{synopt:{opt year}}represent the year of the survey (only integers greater or equal to 2007){p_end}
{synopt:{opt quarter}}represent the quarter of the survey (only integers between 1 and 4) {p_end}
{synoptline}
{pstd}
*These arguments are {hi:strictly required}.

{marker description}{...}
{title:Description}

{pstd}
{cmd:pobrezaECU} predicts the income poverty and extreme income poverty, a year 
ahead, for the Ecuadorean economy, based on the quaterly household survey "ENEMDU".


{marker options}{...}
{title:Options}

{pstd}
Options not allowed.


{marker remarks}{...}
{title:Remarks}

{pstd}
Due to the difficulties of forecasting and/or predicting the evolution of any 
variable, {cmd:pobrezaECU} shows four estimates for the poverty and extreme 
poverty. Each estimate is related which an specific phase of the 
real bussiness cicle of the Ecuadorean economy.

    The program has an in-sample average error of 0.67 percent points.


{marker examples}{...}
{title:Examples}

Example - Predicting poverty for the fourth quarter of 2016

{pstd} For this example you should use the ENEMDU of december 2015. It can be 
downloaded from www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec

{phang}{cmd:. pobrezaECU 2015 4}{p_end}

{pstd} This command will show the following information:

{pstd} {hi: Pobreza 2015-4T: 23.28}

{pstd} {hi: Pobreza 2016-4T:}

         Recuperacion	         23.06	
         Crecimiento             22.06
         Dec. Sobre tendencia    21.52
         Dec. bajo tendencia     24.82
				
{pstd} This values represent the poverty prediction for 2016-4T


{marker author}{...}
{title:Authors}

      Daniel Jaramillo Calderonn, jaramillocalderondc@gmail.com
      Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

      Sergio Guerra Reyes, sergio_guerra@hks13.harvard.edu
      Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Ecuador