*! version 1.0 31ene2017

Title

pobrezaECU -- Nonparametric forecast of the Ecuadorian poverty rate.

Syntax

pobrezaECU year quarter

Arguments*
year represent the year of the survey (only integers greater or equal to 2007)

quarter represent the quarter of the survey (only integers between 1 and 4)

*These arguments are strictly required.

Description

pobrezaECU predicts Ecuador's poverty rate from simulation of households' income conditional on the business cycle phase.
For a detailed description of the methodology and results visit: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1PZD4_QaljbuZWUqdnEG56vGeBdGRWTFn.

Options

Options not allowed.

Examples

Example - Predicting poverty for the fourth quarter of 2016

For this example you should use the ENEMDU of December 2015. It can be
downloaded from www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec

. pobrezaECU 2015 4

This command will show the following information:

Pobreza 2015-4T: 23.28

Pobreza 2016-4T:

Recuperacion 23.06
Crecimiento 22.06
Dec. Sobre tendencia 21.52
Dec. bajo tendencia 24.82

This values represent the poverty prediction for 2016-4T

Authors

Daniel Jaramillo Calderon, jaramillocalderondc@gmail.com - daniel.jaramillo@ubc.ca

Sergio Guerra Reyes, sergio_guerra@hks13.harvard.edu