Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hans Kammler 
Author-X-Name-First: Hans 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kammler 
Title: Not for security only: The demand for international status and defence expenditure an introduction 
Abstract:
  The analysis of military expenditure, inside alliances as well as
 outside, has gained much when the original Olson-Zeckhauser approach was
 generalized into the joint-product model of alliances as developed by Todd
 Sandier and others. This model allowed, as benefits to allies determining
 military expenditure, not only deterrence, a pure collective good, but
 partially collective goods like conventional fighting power and private
 (country-specific) benefits. The papers in this Special Issue explore the
 explanatory potential of also considering the demand for positional goods,
 in particular great-power status, as a determinant of military
 expenditure. The &#x201c;exploitation of the strong by the weak&#x201d;
 characterizing NATO until the early 1970s and during the American defence
 buildup of 1980-1985 might also be explained by an informal
 leader-follower bargain between the United States and its allies who
 traded acceptance of American hegemony for military protection and
 &#x201c;hegemonic stability&#x201d; of the world economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-16 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Positional goods, great-power status, credibility, leader-follower bargain, hegemonic stability, military expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404866 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404866 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: The cold war, great-power traditions and military posture: Determinants of British defence expenditure after 1945 
Abstract:
  Since 1945 the UK has changed from Great Power to leading nation status.
 The stylised facts are outlined and the determinants of UK defence
 spending are analysed using social welfare and public choice models. The
 military criteria for leading nation status are considered and the costs
 of such status are estimated. The conclusion suggests a possible UK
 defence budget for a medium-size economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 17-35 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: UK defence policy and budgets, leading nation, public choice, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404867 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404867 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanela 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanela 
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Hebert 
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hebert 
Title: The end of the &#x201c;French grandeur policy&#x201d; 
Abstract:
  The &#x201c;policy of grandeur&#x201d; was one of the main
 characteristics of French policy since Louis XIV. After World War II,
 France became a more modest State, but with de Gaulle and the Fifth
 Republic a new form of &#x201c;policy of grandeur&#x201d; was developed,
 based on nuclear deterrence, the importance of military expenditure, the
 independence of the national armament industry and arms exports. Since the
 mid-nineties, there has been a profound change of French defence policy,
 concerning the definition of means and the organization of armament
 production. European co-operation no longer appears as one option among
 others but as the only way out. For France, European co-operations is now
 placed at the centre of defence policy. The most important transformations
 in French arms production have yet to come. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 37-55 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Military expenditures, France, Arms production, Nuclear forces, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404868 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404868 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeffrey Salmon 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey 
Author-X-Name-Last: Salmon 
Title: The US military build-up 1980-1985: What the one trillion dollars purchased 
Abstract:
  The build-up of US military forces in the early 1980s was controversial.
 Critics charged that the expenditures were made without the benefit of a
 strategy for how best to use the increased resources and that defense
 procurements were wasteful. For a time, Secretary Weinberger's
 administration of the defense department was seriously questioned as
 lacking any strategic vision. This paper argues that these criticisms have
 merit, but fail to take into account the political context - both domestic
 and international - in which the Reagan Administration was operating. The
 defense build-up fit into a larger national strategy and as such cannot be
 understood in isolation. This national strategy is discussed and the role
 played by the Reagan military build-up in the conclusion of the Cold War
 considered. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 57-76 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Defense spending, Reagan foreign policy, military build-up, euromissile, zero option, strategic defense initiative, defense budgets, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404869 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404869 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas Wenger 
Author-X-Name-First: Andreas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wenger 
Title: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and the missile gap: Determinants of us military expenditure in the wake of the sputnik shock 
Abstract:
  The article examines the factors that influenced America's defense budget
 in the wake of Sputnik. It concludes that both Eisenhower and Kennedy for
 political purposes proposed bigger defense expenditure to Congress than
 they thought was justified from a military standpoint. Both were strongly
 influenced in their decisions by political and psychological
 considerations related to the credibility of the United States as a
 superpower and security guarantor. The importance of military expenditure
 as a signal of resolve grew parallel to the end of the age of American
 invulnerability. With the advent of mutual nuclear plenty, the impact of
 public - and in particular allied - perceptions on defense budget
 decisions multiplied. The fact that both Eisenhower and Kennedy perceived
 military expenditure as a means to reassure allies and deter adversaries
 put them into an essentially defensive position in their effort to contain
 bureaucratic and domestic political forces in favor of a larger defense
 budget. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 77-100 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: US military expenditure, missile gap, Sputnik shock, US defense budgetary process, Eisenhower defense budget, Kennedy defense budget, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404870 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404870 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jyoti Khanna 
Author-X-Name-First: Jyoti 
Author-X-Name-Last: Khanna 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Conscription, peace-keeping, and foreign assistance: NATO burden sharing in the post-cold war era 
Abstract:
  This article examines burden-sharing behavior from the mid-1970s to 1994
 using conscription-adjusted data. Except for the Reagan defense build-up
 in the early 1980s, actual defense burdens are not significantly different
 than average derived defense burdens. There is little sign of the
 exploitation hypothesis during this flexible-response era. In the 1990s,
 peace-keeping missions perform more like a pure public good and display
 some evidence of the exploitation of the large ally by the small. NATO
 foreign assistance abides by the joint product model and does not imply
 exploitation. Dramatic changes in the 1990s appear to reinforce the
 tendency towards equitable burden sharing, experienced from the start of
 the flexible-response era. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 101-121 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Post-Cold War era, joint product model, peace-keeping, exploitation hypothesis, foreign assistance, conscription, flexible response, public good, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404871 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404871 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:1:p:101-121




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Reimund Seidelmann 
Author-X-Name-First: Reimund 
Author-X-Name-Last: Seidelmann 
Title: Costs, risks, and benefits of a global military capability for the European union 
Abstract:
  This article contains estimates of the economic and political costs and
 risks for the build-up, maintenance, modernization, and operation of a
 global military power projection for the EU, which is comparable in size
 and effectiveness to that of the USA. Build-up costs for such a capacity
 are estimated as 200-400bn ECU or an increase of about 50% to the defence
 budgets of NATO Europe of 1995. In relative terms this would mean defence
 expenditures of 2.8-3.8% of GDP, which seems tolerable compared to figures
 of the 1970s and 1980s. For the EU budget this would mean, however, not
 only nearly tripling but an increase from 1.3% to 4.8% of GDP. While other
 economic costs are marginal, the political costs for such a fundamental
 change in the EU's character, for reversing political trends in defence
 spending, and for transferring sensitive national sovereignty to the EU
 and the risk for public support, party cohesion, and elections are
 considerable. These political costs and potential risks have to be
 compared with benefits of becoming a second global power, of becoming
 independent from US security, and from major positive effects for EU
 integration in general. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 123-143 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: European Union (EU), Common European Armaments market, common Foreign and Security Policy, european defence budgets, military capacity of EU, West European Union (WEU), 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404872 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404872 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Avramides 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Avramides 
Title: Alternative models of Greek defence expenditures 
Abstract:
  This paper models and estimates Greek defence spending over the 1950-1989
 period. It employs the Stone-Geary welfare function and estimates levels
 of defence expenditures by the Engle-Granger two-step procedure. The
 Dickey-Fuller test regression for cointegration is specified in terms of
 the significance of additional augmentations. The Deaton-Muellbauer
 functional form is then employed and an estimating equation for the
 expenditure share of defence is derived. This specification is compared
 with the levels equation through a number of non-nested tests involving
 model transformation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 145-187 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Greece, Defence spending, Stone-Geary utility function, Deaton-Muellbauer functional form, Cointegration, Non-nested tests, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404874 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404874 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: Defence spending and growth in turkey 1954-1993: A causal analysis 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the causality issue between military expenditure
 and growth in the case of Turkey, a strategically located developing
 country, for the period 1954-1993. Results reported herein reveal the
 absence of any causal ordering between the variables in question. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 189-204 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Granger causality, Unit roots, Structural breaks, Turkish military spending, Economic growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404875 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404875 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Murdoch 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Murdoch 
Author-Name: Chung-Ron Pi 
Author-X-Name-First: Chung-Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pi 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: The impact of defense and non-defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America 
Abstract:
  For a three-sector Feder-Ram framework, we present time-series,
 cross-sectional estimates for two cohorts, consisting of Asian and Latin
 American countries. The estimates indicate that private investment, and
 defense and non-defense public spending are growth promoting for
 alternative error components representations. For the best error
 components representation, greater growth enhancement is associated with
 the two forms of public spending in Asia than in Latin America, while the
 opposite comparison characterizes private investment. Although defense is
 growth promoting, an opportunity cost exists insofar as non-defense
 spending, financed by defense spending, appears to give a small net boost
 to growth in Latin America. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 205-224 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Feder-Ram model, Error components models, Growth and defense spending, Public spending, Peace dividend, Asia, Latin America, Panel data, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404876 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404876 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Digby Waller 
Author-X-Name-First: Digby 
Author-X-Name-Last: Waller 
Title: Estimating non-transparent military expenditures: The case of china (PRC) 
Abstract:
  Data limitations arising from non-transparency in military expenditure
 reporting impose significant constraints on economists studying country
 and comparative developments in this field. This article focuses on the
 case of China. It reviews the recent literature on China's military
 expenditure, examines the variance in published estimates, and identifies
 three factors which help explain the variance: budgetary falsification;
 non-budgeted PLA revenue; and the US dollar purchasing-power parity of the
 yuan. Conclusions emphasize important policy implications of such variance
 and suggest a more active role for defence economists in a field of
 research generating considerable attention from international relations
 scholars. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 225-241 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Chinese military expenditure, Regional security, Estimating, Purchasing-power parity, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404877 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404877 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bernard Udis 
Author-X-Name-First: Bernard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Udis 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: Book review 
Abstract:
  Todd Sandier and Keith Hartley, The Economics of Defense (Cambridge,
 England: Cambridge University Press, 1995). Suleyman Ozmucur, The
 Economics of Defense and the Peace Dividend in Turkey, Bo&#x11f;azici
 University Press, Istanbul, 1996, pp. 75, paperback, ISBN: 975-518-071-0. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 243-249 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404878 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404878 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:2:p:243-249




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Gold 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gold 
Title: Evaluating the trade-off between military spending and investment in the United States 
Abstract:
  Using tests of a single equation model and cointegration techniques, this
 paper finds no evidence of a long run trade-off, and some evidence of a
 short-run trade-off, between military spending and investment in
 post-World War II United States data. The short-run trade-off is confined
 to the 1949-1971 period, and may be the result of the sharp expansion and
 contraction of military outlays in connection with the Korean and Vietnam
 Wars. In addition, cointegration techniques are used to identify a
 possible long-run trade-off between military spending and consumption. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 251-266 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Military spending, Investment, Consumption, Trade-offs, Cointegration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404880 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404880 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:3:p:251-266




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jordi Molas-Gallart 
Author-X-Name-First: Jordi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Molas-Gallart 
Title: Country survey IX: Spain 
Abstract:
  From the early 1980s Spain embarked on a wide-ranging process of military
 reform, from organisational changes to defence industrial policies.
 Investment in military equipment was set to grow, policies were drawn up
 to foster the domestic defence industrial base, defence R&D rocketed, and
 Spain joined a myriad of international arms development programmes. Yet,
 by 1991 the process of reform had run out of steam. Expenditure planning
 proved unreliable, and firms suffered from sharp cutbacks in procurement
 expenditure. The model of defence industrial growth sketched in the
 mid-1980s had floundered. The Spanish case provides an example of how the
 quest to maximise defence procurement from domestic sources can fall
 victim to industrial and budgetary constraints. Spanish defence producers
 are now becoming increasingly intertwined with foreign defence companies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 267-306 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Spain, Defence expenditure, Arms production, Defence industry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404882 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404882 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:3:p:267-306




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gregory Hildebrandt 
Author-X-Name-First: Gregory 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hildebrandt 
Title: Book review 
Abstract:
  Handbook of Defense Economics: Volume 1, Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler,
 Editors (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1995), 606p. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 307-317 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404883 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404883 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:3:p:307-317




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: The future challenges of NATO: An economic viewpoint 
Abstract:
  This article identifies and evaluates likely challenges facing NATO today
 and into the next millennium. These contingencies include ethnic-based
 civil wars in Europe, transnational terrorism, rogue states, increased
 world income inequality, out-of-area conflicts, and environmental and
 resource security. Using concepts and tools from collective action, I
 assess these challenges and suggest effective policies for addressing
 them. NATO still has a crucial role to play in maintaining world security
 in the post-Cold War era. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 319-353 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Post-Cold War era, Collective action, NATO challenges, NATO, Terrorism, Rogue states, Civil wars, Environmental security, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404885 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404885 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:4:p:319-353




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Stelios Makrydakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Stelios 
Author-X-Name-Last: Makrydakis 
Title: Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests 
Abstract:
  Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO and are two of the principal
 players in the Balkan region. Their respective defence burdens (i.e. the
 share of military expenditure to GDP) are the highest in NATO. Their
 bilateral relations are marred by serious friction and conflict of
 interest and have on a number of occasions come close to an armed
 confrontation. Their strategic interaction and mutual weapons build-up has
 recently attracted the attention of researchers in the field testing the
 hypothesis of a Greek-Turkish arms race with conflicting results. This
 paper, using cointegration and causality tests, finds evidence of a
 systematic armaments competition between the two countries provided that a
 defence policy regime shift estimated to occur in 1985 is explicitly taken
 into consideration. This policy regime change is associated with the
 stagnation of defence spending in Greece owing to the gradual
 deterioration of Greek public finances over the last decade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 355-379 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Greece, Turkey, Military spending, Arms racing, Granger causality, Cointegration, Structural breaks, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404886 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404886 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:4:p:355-379




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: Country survey X: Defence spending in Turkey 
Abstract:
  This paper provides a country survey of the Turkish defence economy.
 Turkey is a member of NATO alliance and is strategically located between
 Europe and Middle East. Moreover, Turkey has a high defence burden and
 high economic growth. The first part of the survey presents a brief
 economic background of Turkey, its armed forces, the defence industry, its
 modernisation and trends in Turkish defence expenditure. The rest of the
 paper focuses on the relationships between defence spending and economic
 growth. The effect of defence spending on economic growth is
 econometrically estimated using a supply side model. Both externality
 effects and the size effect of defence spending are estimated for Turkey.
 The study concludes that defence expenditure stimulates economic growth
 while externalities from the defence sector to the rest of economy are
 negative for Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 381-409 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 8 
Year: 1997 
Keywords: Turkey, Defence expenditure, Economic growth, Turkish defence industry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719708404887 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719708404887 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:8:y:1997:i:4:p:381-409




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Author-Name: Douglas Thomson 
Author-X-Name-First: Douglas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Thomson 
Title: Defence procurement and domestic industry: The Australian experience 
Abstract:
  Australia has been something of a laboratory for policy experiment aimed
 at developing and maintaining defence-related industry capability at an
 acceptable social cost. The issues that successive governments have aimed
 to address under the heading of 'defence self-reliance' include: public
 vs. private ownership; competition vs. restricted or sole sourcing; local
 content requirements; efficient contracting; procurement organisation;
 market penetration by multinational arms suppliers; technology transfer
 vs. indigenous R&D; offsets and countertrade; export facilitation; and the
 market testing of logistic support services. This paper presents and
 assesses the Australian experience and provides an overview of defence
 industry and procurement issues in the broader context of the Australian
 strategic policy of military self-reliance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 137-165 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Defence procurement, Industry preparedness, Self-reliance, Industry policy, Competition, Contracting, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404898 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404898 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:137-165




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Matthew Uttley 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew 
Author-X-Name-Last: Uttley 
Title: Book review 
Abstract:
  Martin, S. (ed.), The Economics of Offsets: Defence Procurement and
 Countertrade, (Reading: Harwood Academic Publishers), 1996, pp. xi, 417. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 167-169 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404899 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404899 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:167-169




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandier 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandier 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: Editorial announcement on the death of Mancur Olson 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-1 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404890 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404890 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Author-Name: Peter Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Title: Foreword 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-2 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404891 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404891 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:1-2




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Author-Name: Peter Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Title: Challenges of defence procurement 
Abstract:
  Defence procurement deals with products that are highly differentiated
 and its regulation is extremely complex. The 'defence organisation' and
 'industry' are the two principal parties involved in procurement
 transactions. Domestic sourcing of defence materiel has long been
 encouraged in most countries in the name of 'self-reliance'. Thus, defence
 planners must determine not only their materiel requirements but also
 defence-related manufacturing and service capabilities needed in-country.
 But how much 'self-reliance' is feasible and desirable, especially in
 smaller countries? This paper provides an overview of issues and policy
 tools in defence procurement that reflect the experience of a number of
 small and medium size countries. Issues addressed include: changing user
 requirements, make-or-buy decisions, contracting, source selection,
 organisational structure, and international collaboration. These issues
 are reviewed against the background of global trends in defence spending,
 industry and trade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 3-37 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Defence procurement, Defence-related industry, Industry preparedness, Make-or-buy decisions, Through-life support, Contracting, Source selection, Competition, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404892 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404892 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:3-37




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: Defence procurement in the UK 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the demand and supply sides of the UK defence market,
 including the Ministry of Defence (MoD) role as a major buyer and the UK
 defence industrial base. It explains MoD's competitive procurement policy
 and evaluates its results, problems and future prospects. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 39-61 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Collaboration, Competitive procurement policy, Contracting, UK defence industries, Defence industrial policy, Quadrilateral Armaments Agency, Review Board, Value for money, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404893 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404893 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:39-61




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jordi Molas-Gallart 
Author-X-Name-First: Jordi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Molas-Gallart 
Title: Defence procurement as an industrial policy tool: The Spanish experience 
Abstract:
  The procurement of military systems may be used as a tool to achieve
 industrial objectives. Medium-sized industrialised countries have the
 choice of procuring foreign systems on the best economic terms available,
 or instead using defence procurement as a tool to build up domestic
 industrial and technological capabilities. The Spanish experience
 illustrates the difficulties in moving from a procurement approach that
 only occasionally considered industrial policy issues, to procedures that
 systematically attempted to use defence procurement to support domestic
 industries. The problems that emerged suggest the limits to using defence
 procurement as an industrial policy tool, and provide an indication of the
 range of feasible objectives attainable by the defence procurement
 policies of a middle-sized, industrialised country. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 63-81 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Arms procurement, Spain, Defence industry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404894 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404894 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:63-81




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erik Dirksen 
Author-X-Name-First: Erik 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dirksen 
Title: The defence-industry interface: The Dutch approach 
Abstract:
  The aim of this paper is to enhance understanding of the defence-industry
 interface in the Netherlands. It is structured as follows. First, the
 institutional context for the Netherlands' approach to industry
 involvement is described. Subsequent sections deal with key aspects of
 government strategic guidance, defence procurement practices, contracting
 issues, specific policy instruments, R&D, and international collaboration.
 The paper concludes with sections on current policy issues and future
 policy outlook. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 83-97 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Defence procurement, Procurement policy, Defence industry policy, Defence Technology policy, Defence offsets, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404895 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404895 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:1-2:p:83-97




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Title: Switzerland - The pragmatic approach to defence procurement 
Abstract:
  The Swiss approach to defence procurement has a number of distinct
 features. With modest levels of defence-related R&D, military acquisitions
 tend to be limited to proven and durable systems offering the user
 reliable performance over time as well as plenty of scope for future
 upgrades and adaptations. Long term cost-effectiveness is the key driver
 of the procurement process with the resultant high ratio of accumulated
 (military) capital per soldier but a relatively small share of defence in
 GDP. The Defence Procurement Agency acts as 'the-cradle-to-the-grave'
 system manager (i.e. it manages both the acquisition process and
 subsequent through-life support and final disposal). There is a strong
 commitment to domestic industry with high levels of local content in
 procurement (in part as a result of offsets) and support for exports.
 There is also a commitment to a mix of private and public ownership with
 the latter increasingly exposed to commercial business practices and
 standards. Most contracts are fixed price with an agreed 'fair' rate of
 return on capital invested by contractors subject to cost, performance and
 profitability audits. 'Managed competition' combines a high degree of
 openness to international trade in key sectors of the economy with
 protected market niches. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 99-118 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Procurement, Defence-related industry, Defence technology, Competition, Contracting, Offsets, Systems management, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404896 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404896 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chinniah Manohara 
Author-X-Name-First: Chinniah 
Author-X-Name-Last: Manohara 
Title: Defence procurement and industry policy - A Singapore perspective 
Abstract:
  This paper describes Singapore's defence procurement process policy and
 agencies tasked with purchasing goods and services for the Singapore's
 Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces. It also outlines
 Singapore's defence industry and technology policies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 119-136 
Issue: 1-2 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Procurement process, Procurement organisation, Competition and contracting, Industry policy, Technology policy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404897 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404897 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Beenstock 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Beenstock 
Title: Country survey XI: Defence and the Israeli economy 
Abstract:
  The literature on economic aspects of defence in Israel is critically
 reviewed by subject: measuring the defence burden, the determinants of
 defence spending, the effects of defence spending on the economy, and the
 military-industrial complex. An overview of the Israeli economy is
 provided, and some new econometric findings on the determinants of defence
 spending are presented. The paper concludes by addressing policy issues in
 the context of Israel's jubilee. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 171-222 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Defence economics, Israel, Cointegration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404901 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404901 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:171-222




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Author-Name: Fotis Mouzakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Fotis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mouzakis 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: Prices and quantities in the arms trade 
Abstract:
  There are two main sources of information about the Arms Trade, SIPRI and
 ACDA. These two sources give very different pictures of the evolution of
 the market, primarily because their measures are designed to capture
 conceptually different features. Although they are both expressed in
 constant dollars, the SIPRI series is designed to be a volume index of
 physical transfers, the ACDA series a constant price value index. Thus in
 principle, the ratio of the ACDA to SIPRI series should provide an
 implicit price index of arms; though in practice there are many
 measurement problems. In this paper, we discuss the basis of these indices
 and show that the ratio, the implicit price, not only looks plausible in
 the light of the evolution of the market, but has a significant negative
 effect on the demand for arms imports in an econometric equation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-236 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Arms trade data, Demand for arms imports, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404902 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404902 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:223-236




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jerald Schiff 
Author-X-Name-First: Jerald 
Author-X-Name-Last: Schiff 
Author-Name: Sanjeev Gupta 
Author-X-Name-First: Sanjeev 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta 
Author-Name: Benedict Clements 
Author-X-Name-First: Benedict 
Author-X-Name-Last: Clements 
Title: Worldwide military spending, 1990-95 
Abstract:
  The decline in military spending that began in the mid-1980s continued
 through 1995, and this decline was widespread both geographically and by
 level of development. Cuts in military spending appear to have potentially
 important implications for non-military spending and fiscal adjustment. In
 contrast to findings for previous periods, military spending has declined
 more than proportionately in those countries that have reduced total
 spending. Countries with Fund programs have reduced military spending more
 sharply than other developing countries, largely reflecting outcomes in
 the transition economies. Further, military spending appears to have been
 less resilient in program countries than other developing countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 237-281 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Military spending, Non-military spending, Crowding-out, Peace dividend, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404903 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404903 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:237-281




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Manuel Ennes Ferreira 
Author-X-Name-First: Manuel Ennes 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferreira 
Author-Name: Carlos Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: From war to economic recovery: Peace as a public good in Angola 
Abstract:
  After twenty years of civil war in Angola, and following the country's
 devastation, transition to a market economy and democracy has finally
 begun. The end of the war has prompted individual expectations of a real
 income rise. Within this context, the paper sets out to analyse the
 willingness of civil servants to help pay (wtp) for consolidation of a
 public good - peace - in Angola and to calculate the extent to which they
 are willing to accept (wta) government compensation should it fail to
 assure this public good. The model used is based on a subjective expected
 utility function and the sample is taken from high-ranking public
 administration staff. Results obtained permit one to determine and to
 interpret wtp and wta by age, sex, hierarchical position, income and
 number of military conscripts per family. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 283-297 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Angola, Military expenditures, Peace as a public good, CVM questionnaire, Willingness to pay, Willingness to accept, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404904 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404904 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:283-297




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Title: Adam smith: A defence economist 
Abstract:
  For Smith, &#x201c;defence&#x201d; is presented as one of the three big
 areas requiring the &#x201c;expenses of the sovereign or
 Commonwealth&#x201d;, and therefore justifying state intervention in the
 economy, beside &#x201c;justice&#x201d; and &#x201c;public works and
 public institutions&#x201d;. Against the mercantilist thought, Smith
 considers that the process of liberalization is a condition of disarmament
 and peace. It supposes mainly the decolonization, the reduction of defence
 burden, the eradication of slavery, the denunciation of the mercantilist
 policy, and the international respect of free trade. Development is both a
 consequence of liberalization and the main cause of peace. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 299-316 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Adam Smith, Defence economics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404905 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404905 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:3:p:299-316




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric Brunat 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brunat 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-320 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404907 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404907 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:317-320




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric Brunat 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brunat 
Author-Name: Serguei Malakhov 
Author-X-Name-First: Serguei 
Author-X-Name-Last: Malakhov 
Title: Production, conversion, specificity of assets, and markets: Constraints for a global restructuring in Russia 
Abstract:
  The production units of the military-industrial complex operate under the
 constraints imposed by the general context of the transformation of the
 socio-economic system in Russia. So conversion is closely linked to the
 global transformation: we are dealing with a process and an objective
 which are totally interlinked with the restructuring process of the whole
 of the industrial base. Conversion is also undertaken concomitant with the
 emergence of a decentralised but a more and more theoretical money-based
 commercial economy (step backwards of the money-based economy, high
 transaction costs, barter). There are indeed specific constraints
 associated with the defense sector but these cannot be isolated from a
 more global analysis so long as the situation in the country's
 institutions and operating systems remains precarious. The question of
 conversion in Russia cannot be dissociated from a reflection, on the one
 hand, concerning the nature and the specificity of the assets of the
 production units, and, on the other hand, concerning the very concentrated
 nature of military production activity located over such a vast territory. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 321-338 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Conversion, Defence industry, Industrial policy, Meso-economy, Regional development, Russia, Specificity of assets, Transaction costs, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404908 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404908 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:321-338




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ksenia Gonchar 
Author-X-Name-First: Ksenia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gonchar 
Author-Name: Herbert Wulf 
Author-X-Name-First: Herbert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wulf 
Title: Lessons learned from conversion in Russia and Western Europe 
Abstract:
  Conversion in Russia, after several attempts between 1988 and 1995, is
 often compared to restructuring of the defense industry in the West and
 then described as a failure. However, the methods applied for downsizing
 defense production capacities and industry restructuring (rather than
 converting to non-military production) were quite similar in Russia and
 Western Europe. Conversion at the factory level has only been modestly
 successful in Western Europe when considering some adverse circumstances
 of the early 1990s. Conversion in Russia had hardly any chance for success
 when considering the dramatic decline of the economy at large. Partial
 re-use of resources, of persons employed or of technologies available has
 been accomplished more efficiently. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 339-365 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Conversion, Defense industry downsizing and restructuring, Comparison of Russian and West European experiences, Defense industry strategies, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404909 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404909 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:339-365




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ovsey Shkaratan 
Author-X-Name-First: Ovsey 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shkaratan 
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Title: Conversion and personnel in the Russian military-industrial-complex 
Abstract:
  The experience of Russia in the field of conversion indicates that it is
 a costly process, because large expenditures are needed to compensate the
 enterprises for the losses produced by decreases in defence production and
 by the maintenance of average wages and salaries, without efficient
 production. Many large-scale military conversion projects are difficult
 without the import of equipment and the participation of foreign capital.
 Because the MIC is involved in the national industry, the general
 characteristics of Russian workers reduce or improve the competitiveness
 of the Russian economy. But the military-industrial complex, which is not
 very involved in the development of infrastructure and of service sector,
 developed its own specific demand and its own peculiar supply network.
 Therefore, the potential of Russia's human resources cannot be realised
 without active co-operation on a mutually profitable basis with firms and
 corporations of other countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 367-379 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Conversion, Employment, Russia, Military-Industrial-Complex, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404910 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404910 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:367-379




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jordin Cohen 
Author-X-Name-First: Jordin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen 
Author-Name: Michael Ward 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ward 
Title: Great expectations: Russian defence conversion 
Abstract:
  Conversion of defence industries is neither simple in concept nor
 execution. While many wish to paint a rosy future and extol the costless
 benefits, pragma-tists stress the real and nominal disincentives to
 converting. Regarding the process in Russia, we outline what is involved
 and show that long-term obstacles remain. Conversion is not a state of
 nature, nor can it be imposed by domestic or international actors. Rather,
 it is a process, evolving from the new realities of the post-Cold War
 world. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 381-394 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Defense conversion, Russia, Costs and benefits, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404911 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404911 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:381-394




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yuri Zverev 
Author-X-Name-First: Yuri 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zverev 
Title: The Kaliningrad defence industry: Problems of conversion 
Abstract:
  The paper is about the conversion problems of the Kaliningrad region's
 defence industry (Russian Federation). There is information about the
 structure and specialisation of the regional defence industry before the
 start of conversion. The main strategies of conversion in the region and
 examples of the largest companies are considered. The reasons for some
 conversion failures are analysed and some proposals for improvement of the
 conversion process are given. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 395-406 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 9 
Year: 1998 
Keywords: Conversion, Kaliningrad region, Russian Federation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719808404912 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719808404912 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:9:y:1998:i:4:p:395-406




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Patrick James 
Author-X-Name-First: Patrick 
Author-X-Name-Last: James 
Author-Name: Eric Solberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solberg 
Author-Name: Murray Wolfson 
Author-X-Name-First: Murray 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolfson 
Title: An identified systemic model of the democracy-peace nexus 
Abstract:
  In previous empirical work, the basis for the proposition that democratic
 countries do not fight each other has been a single equation regression of
 hostility on democracy and other variables. This approach is misleading
 for two reasons. First, peace and democracy are part of a simultaneous
 system of relations in which they foster each other. Before quantitative
 inferences which affect policy conclusions can be reached, a separate
 structural equation has to be estimated corresponding to each of these
 variables. The equations must be distinguishable from one another at the
 same time as they embody the interdependence between peace and democracy.
 Second, previous regression studies emphasized the statistical association
 between democracy and peace rather than focusing on the substantive
 magnitude of that effect. To demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to
 these concerns, we accepted the data and indexes of one of the most
 influential statements of the peace-democracy thesis, and studied the Cold
 War period where it is deemed strongest. We differed from the prevailing
 paradigm by estimating an identified, simultaneous two-equation
 interactive system. In this more properly specified model, the dyadic
 democracy-peace nexus generally was not statistically significant and,
 more important, was very small in its impact. The alternative, peace
 causing democracy, was much stronger. Neither equation in the simultaneous
 system explained more than six per cent of the variance, so that other
 factors are likely to be much more important. Deterrence of aggression and
 patient negotiation of differences may be a more important guide to public
 policy than attempts to export western, democratic institutions to other
 nations. The analysis of these data show that it is more likely that the
 most important differences that arise between nations are specific to
 historic epochs and their political and socio-economic conjunctures.
 Various other indices have been suggested for conflict and democracy in
 the literature, as well as numerous modifications of the additional
 variables to be included in the regression equations. The results have
 tended to be variable with respect to these modifications, but the failure
 of single equation model specifications to deal with the problem of
 simultaneous causation makes their results subject to our fundamental
 methodological criticism and unable to support the burden of policy
 recommendations. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-37 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Democracy, Peace, Empirical tests, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404914 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404914 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:1-37




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dagobert Brito 
Author-X-Name-First: Dagobert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brito 
Author-Name: Michael Intriligator 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Intriligator 
Title: Increasing returns to scale and the arms race: The end of the Richardson paradigm? 
Abstract:
  Considered here is an arms race in which weapons production exhibits
 increasing returns to scale technology that stems from the increasing
 importance of information, electronics, computers, software, etc. in
 modern weapons systems. Just as in general equilibrium theory, increasing
 returns to scale in an arms race leads to very different results than
 constant or decreasing returns to scale. As one implication, increasing
 returns can lead to multiple stable equilibria, which can be ranked such
 that both parties are better off at a lower equilibrium. In this case,
 both parties could be made better off through arms control agreements that
 lead to a lower equilibrium. Another implication is that increasing
 returns can create the possibility of specialization and trade in weapons
 between the participants in an arms race. Yet another implication is that
 a third nation may sell weapons to both sides in a conflict. Overall, both
 the behavior of the participants in an arms race and the implied research
 agenda are very different for the alternative paradigm of an increasing
 returns to scale technology in arms production, as compared to the
 dominant paradigm, the Richardson model of the arms race. The latter
 assumes a constant or diminishing returns to scale technology, but it
 cannot account for some modern arms race phenomena. The Richardson model
 should be replaced by this new paradigm that takes explicit account of the
 increasing returns technology resulting from the nature of new types of
 weapons systems. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 39-54 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Arms control, Arms races, Increasing returns to scale, Information, Richardson model of the arms race, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404915 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404915 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:39-54




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen Martin 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Martin 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Andrew Cox 
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cox 
Title: Defence procurement of dual-use goods: Is there a single market in the European union? 
Abstract:
  The Single European Market seeks to eliminate the preferential public
 purchasing of civil goods and services. Article 223 of the Treaty of Rome
 allows exemptions for specifically military equipment but not for dual-use
 goods. This paper reviews evidence on whether Defence Ministries and the
 Armed Forces are continuing to discriminate in favour of their domestic
 suppliers when purchasing dual-use goods. It concludes that there remain
 substantial opportunities for opening-up dual-use procurement markets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 55-77 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Defence procurement, Dual-use goods, Public purchasing, Single European Market, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404916 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404916 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:55-77




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Aufrant 
Author-X-Name-First: Marc 
Author-X-Name-Last: Aufrant 
Title: France and its allies: A comparative study of defence spending trends since 1985 
Abstract:
  Within the EU France devotes to defence the largest financial and human
 resources although it is not the richest country, nor has it the largest
 population or labour force. The cost of nuclear weapons accounts for only
 a small fraction of this abnormally high French defence effort. If France
 had restructured its military capabilities at the same rate as its
 principal Allies during the 1985-1994 period, then French defence outlays
 would be about 20% less than at present. The fundamental reasons for
 France's excess defence outlay comprise virtual total dependence on French
 sources for equipment, produced in very small numbers; a military presence
 outside of Europe; and too many personnel. These deficiencies, and the
 consequent absence hitherto of a &#x201c;peace dividend&#x201d;, indicate
 a failure to identify the country's real strategic requirements, and a
 lack of will to reorganise efficiently French defence. The recently
 announced reform towards an all-professional force is unlikely to achieve
 the potential and desirable improvement in cost-effectiveness. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 79-102 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Defence spending, Defence budget, Peace dividend, France, Germany, UK, US, NATO, EU, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404917 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404917 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:79-102




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Hedvall 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hedvall 
Title: The economic policy of acquiring foreign currency in wartime: The example of Croatia 
Abstract:
  This paper attempts to describe the methods employed by the Croatian
 government in order to acquire the foreign currency which was essential
 for strategic imports during the period 1991-1995. The starting point for
 this was the fact that foreign currency was in the hands of Croatian
 households, export companies, and Croatian companies abroad. The Croatian
 central bank gained access to households' foreign currency principally by
 gaining their confidence. It gained access to companies' currency by means
 of &#x201c;export rights&#x201d;, and perhaps also as a result of the
 integration of political and economic positions which was a relic of the
 former Yugoslavia. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 103-116 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Economic policy, Banking, Foreign currency, War, Croatia, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404918 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404918 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:1:p:103-116




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Toshihiro Ihori 
Author-X-Name-First: Toshihiro 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ihori 
Title: Protection against national emergency: International public goods and insurance 
Abstract:
  This paper develops a model of economic protection against random
 emergency costs. To mitigate the effects of these disruptions, each
 country creates a private mutual insurance market and provides voluntarily
 an international public good. We will explore how protection through
 voluntary provision of an international public good as well as mutual
 insurance would affect welfare. The existence of both mutual insurance and
 an international public good is crucial to obtain welfare equalization and
 the weak paradox of international transfer. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 117-137 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Risk of emergency, Insurance, Public goods, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404920 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404920 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:117-137




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Brzoska 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brzoska 
Title: Economic factors shaping arms production in less industrialized countries 
Abstract:
  The production of weapons in less industrialized countries (LIC) grew
 rapidly from the 1960s to the mid-1980s when it began to stagnate. The
 trend is not universal, however, with drastic declines in countries in
 Africa and Latin America and stagnation or even growth in countries in
 Asia. Initiation and continuation of production often was dependent on
 political support. Weapon unit costs generally were higher than those of
 comparable imported weapons. Decreases in exports of weapons from LIC,
 failures of technologically ambitious programs, increased cost
 consciousness and changed political power coalitions in a number of
 countries contributed to the change in trend. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 139-169 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Arms industry, Arms exports, Less developed countries, Production costs, Technology, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404921 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404921 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:139-169




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Philip Jones 
Author-X-Name-First: Philip 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jones 
Title: Rent seeking and defence expenditure 
Abstract:
  A plethora of arguments from the 'public choice school' suggest that
 public goods are 'under-supplied' by comparison with public sector
 provision of more private goods. The implication is that rent seeking by
 the 'military-industrial complex' serves, in some measure, to offset
 potential allocative inefficiency. In this paper a comparison of rent
 seeking by producers of public goods and producers of private goods
 identifies a bias that favours public good supply. The bias results from
 the different way in which collective demand for public goods and for
 private goods is expressed. The prospect of larger rents to the
 'military-industrial complex' implies greater rent-seeking expenditures in
 this sector. The extent to which public goods (and, in particular,
 defence) are 'under supplied' is much exaggerated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 171-190 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Public goods, Private goods, Rent seeking, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404922 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404922 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:171-190




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward Keating 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward 
Author-X-Name-Last: Keating 
Title: &#x201c;Government contracting options: A model and application&#x201c; 
Abstract:
  This paper models and simulates a government-contractor principal-agent
 weapon system repair model. Insights are derived as to how government
 repair contracts should be constructed so as to induce optimal contractor
 behavior. The paper's general conclusion is that the best contracting
 approach combines a lump-sum payment that does not vary with the number of
 units repaired, expensive item cost-sharing, and a contractor-provided
 availability guarantee. Provided there is intercontractor competition,
 this type of contract performs well even if the government is poorly
 informed about weapon system break patterns or repair costs. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 191-223 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Contracting, Cost-sharing, Lump-sum, Maintenance, Repair, United States Air Force, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404923 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404923 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:2:p:191-223




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nuno Garoupa 
Author-X-Name-First: Nuno 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garoupa 
Author-Name: Joao Gata 
Author-X-Name-First: Joao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gata 
Title: An evolutionary game theoretical approach to the theory of international regimes 
Abstract:
  By way of an evolutionary game model we show that mediation in
 international conflicts might be harmful to the conflicting parties. In
 fact, under anarchy both parties can be better off than under an
 international regime if mediation reduces the parties' reactive capacities
 (i.e. their abilites to respond to an aggression). This result is applied
 to issues currently discussed in the literature on international relations
 such as the role of the United Nations as a mediator of international
 conflicts. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 225-246 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Conflict, Anarchy, International regime, Evolutionary game theory, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404925 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404925 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:3:p:225-246




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gregory Hildebrandt 
Author-X-Name-First: Gregory 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hildebrandt 
Title: The military production function 
Abstract:
  This article analyzes three methods of estimating the military production
 function which relates military inputs to a measure of military
 effectiveness. The econometric military production function employs
 historical data to estimate the relationship between inputs and military
 effectiveness. A production function estimated during the Vietnam War is
 provided as an example. The response-surface military production
 summarizes the input and output data of a large-scale military operations
 research model. This method is illustrated using a model that links
 maintenance manpower to aircraft sorties. The technological military
 production function is derived from underlying technological
 relationships. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 247-272 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Military production function, Cost-effectiveness analysis, Interdiction, Response surface methodology, Isoquants, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404926 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404926 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:3:p:247-272




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mary Carmen Garcia-Alonso 
Author-X-Name-First: Mary Carmen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garcia-Alonso 
Title: Price competition in a model of arms trade 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a model of subsidized military production that
 examines the relationship between domestic procurement and arms exports.
 Weapon producers satisfy the defence procurement in their own country and
 compete in prices in the international market where weapons are imperfect
 substitutes for each other. Importers are involved in an arms race
 situation and do not have domestic military production. The model makes
 explicit the strategic interaction between governments and firms in the
 export market. We then analyze the effect of a change in the most
 significant parameters on the equilibrium. The paper suggests an
 explanation for the evolution of the arms market in the past few years and
 highlights the important role of the demand and cost structures. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 273-303 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Arms trade, Defence economics, Product differentiation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404927 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404927 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:3:p:273-303




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Manas Chatterji 
Author-X-Name-First: Manas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chatterji 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 305-310 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404929 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404929 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:305-310




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Claude Berthelemy 
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Claude 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berthelemy 
Author-Name: Remy Herrera 
Author-X-Name-First: Remy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Herrera 
Author-Name: Somnath Sen 
Author-X-Name-First: Somnath 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sen 
Title: Defence spending, fiscal federalism, and economic growth in India: A new approach 
Abstract:
  This paper proposes a new approach to the analysis of the military
 expenditure - growth nexus, applied to the case of India. Military
 expenditure has, first, a direct impact on the central government
 budgetary decisions, with a variety of crowding-out effects on other
 public spending. Second, there is an interaction with local government
 expenditure decisions in a federal state structure such as the Indian one,
 in particular through changes in the transfer of income from the central
 government to local governments. Third, all these fiscal decisions have an
 impact on growth through the accumulation of human capital and through
 infrastructure building. Government expenditure behaviours are estimated
 on Indian times series specifically built for this purpose, while their
 impact on growth are evaluated through simulations of a calibrated
 endogenous growth model of India. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-334 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: National Government Expenditures, Economics of Defence, Growth Models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404930 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404930 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:311-334




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sumit Ganguly 
Author-X-Name-First: Sumit 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ganguly 
Author-Name: Rahul Mukherji 
Author-X-Name-First: Rahul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mukherji 
Author-Name: Rajesh Rajagopalan 
Author-X-Name-First: Rajesh 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rajagopalan 
Title: India and South Asian security 
Abstract:
  The South Asian region has witnessed a high level of insecurity ever
 since the region became independent from colonial rule. This condition has
 persisted even after the end of the cold war. Our paper looks at the
 Indian threat perceptions, the Indian responses to such threat
 perceptions, and, the effects of the Indian response. The three principal
 sources of Indian threat perceptions have been Pakistan, China, and
 domestic insurgent groups. This paper con tends that the principle problem
 in Indo-Pakistan relations has been the problem of security dilemma, a
 condition where the increase in the security of a country, arouses fear in
 the hearts of its adversaries, thereby leading to a reduction in its
 security. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 335-345 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: South Asia, Security environment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404931 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404931 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:335-345




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ayesha Siddiqa-Agha 
Author-X-Name-First: Ayesha 
Author-X-Name-Last: Siddiqa-Agha 
Title: Pakistan's defense industry: An effort towards self-reliance? 
Abstract:
  This paper discusses the current state of Pakistan's defense industry and
 its potential. Like most of the developing Third World countries, Pakistan
 also has a number of weapons production and related R&D facilities. The
 defense industrial infrastructure was considered necessary to maintain an
 ability to fight without compromising foreign policy or other state
 objectives. However, the present state of the defense industry does not
 give one the satisfaction that Pakistani policy-makers could depend upon
 local capabilities to fight a war, A variety of reasons pertaining to lack
 of an industrial culture, technological, industrial and educational
 backwardness, poor quality of human resource, dearth of resources,
 financial mismanagement and lack of a political will to establish a sound
 defense industry are some of the factors analyzed in the paper. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 347-359 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Pakistan, Third world countries, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404932 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404932 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:347-359




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: K. M. de Silva 
Author-X-Name-First: K. M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: de Silva 
Title: Sri Lanka: The security problems of a small state 
Abstract:
  The objective of this study is to consider the security aspect of Sri
 Lanka in historical perspective and in the context of its neighbors. The
 security aspect is also discussed in the light of ethnic conflict. Small
 states like Sri Lanka need new and multi-dimensional approaches to old
 practices especially when a country's very survival is at stake. Lacking a
 militarily adequate physical size and an ability for flexible defense, a
 small state has to rely on strategic insights, skills and tactics to
 outwit the aggressor. Above all, a well-defined strategy for national
 security should receive the highest priority in the nation's political
 agenda. The choices before a small state confronted by a powerful regional
 power, seeking to fill a vacuum left by a colonial hegemon, are limited
 and intrinsically unpalatable. Small states like Sri Lanka will need to
 keep their diplomatic options open as to wide a range of influences as
 possible without committing themselves to any single course of action.
 What is required is not a systematic linkage, but a partial one. Regional
 groupings are, by and large, the least disadvantageous, if not most
 desirable, for small states. Despite the massive disorientation in India's
 foreign policy stemming from the winding down of Cold War tensions, and
 the fading away of her links with the former Soviet Union with the
 latter's dissolution, links which had been the pivot of India's foreign
 and defense policies since the late 1960s - all of India's neighbors in
 South Asia will continue to face the common problem of a relationship in
 which every possible calculation is weighted in favor of India and against
 her smaller neighbors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 361-381 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Sri Lanka, Security Problems, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404933 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404933 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:361-381




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shuji Kurokawa 
Author-X-Name-First: Shuji 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kurokawa 
Title: Missile technology export conflicts in Asia:1 China and the USA, India and Pakistan in the 1990s 
Abstract:
  The spread of missile technology combined with nuclear weapons is
 dangerous to world peace. In order to stop this transfer, the Missile
 Technology Control Regime (MTCR) was formed in 1987. The control mechanism
 of the MTCR is explained, and characteristics and limits of the regime are
 analyzed. The cases of the United States vs. China and India vs. Pakistan
 in the development and export of missiles are analyzed in detail to find
 the motivation to get this weapon. Chinese missile exports stimulated the
 United States to impose economic sanctions. The political dynamics between
 national security and trade colored this drama. To update the recent
 situation, the nuclear tests of both India and Pakistan are followed,
 together with the development and tests of the missile to carry nuclear
 weapons. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 383-400 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 10 
Year: 1999 
Keywords: Missile Technology, Export Conflicts, Asia, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404934 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430719908404934 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:10:y:1999:i:4:p:383-400




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Defence and peace economics: A ten-year retrospective 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-16 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404935 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404935 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:1-16




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andre Roux 
Author-X-Name-First: Andre 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roux 
Title: Country survey XII: South Africa 
Abstract:
  This article examines the relationship between defence expenditure and
 economic performance in South Africa, both prior to and after that
 country's first fully democratic election in 1994. Prior to 1994 defence
 expenditure decisions were largely dominated by non-economic factors;
 since then defence spending has declined in reaction to, inter alia, the
 need to address a number of socio-economic inequities. After 1975 in
 particular, military industrialisation in South Africa placed a
 disproportionately high burden on the country's industrial resources and
 natural economic and technical capabilities. However, although this
 suggests that the opportunity cost of domestic arms production has been
 fairly high, the country's poor economic and development performance since
 the mid-1970s is a function of underlying structural deficiencies and
 institutional constraints rather than the consequence of inordinately high
 defence spending levels. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 149-172 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: South African economy, Defence spending in South Africa, Conscription, South African defence industry, Military industrialisation, Arms production capacity, Disarmament and employment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404944 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404944 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:149-172




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Stelios Makrydakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Stelios 
Author-X-Name-Last: Makrydakis 
Title: A note on the causal relationship between defence spending and growth in Greece: 1955-93 
Abstract:
  The causal relationship between economic growth and defence spending has
 attracted considerable attention and has been the subject of many
 empirical studies. This paper investigates the existence of a causal link
 between military expenditure and economic growth in the case of Greece for
 the period 1955-93. By European Union standards, Greece allocates
 substantial human and material resources to defence. At the same time,
 Greece is the poorest European Union member facing chronic economic
 problems. Using the concept of Granger-causality, the findings reported
 herein suggest that neither variable Granger-causes the other disclosing
 thereof the absence of any causal ordering between them. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 173-184 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Granger causality, Unit roots, Structural breaks, Greek military spending, Economic growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404945 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404945 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andy Thorpe 
Author-X-Name-First: Andy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Thorpe 
Author-Name: Sam Cameron 
Author-X-Name-First: Sam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cameron 
Title: Your country needs you! Forced recruitment in Honduras 
Abstract:
  Conscription was an obvious topic for economists to study during the
 heyday of the Vietnam war but, as the US draft threat has receded, so has
 the literature. One area where conscription remains important however is
 in the developing world, in particular, Latin America. Here the military
 maintain a high profile, yet forced recruitment remains a seriously
 under-researched area. Our paper addresses this, assessing whether the
 armed forces in Honduras have implemented systematic recruitment patterns,
 through the examination of a rural household survey of 794 families. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 185-195 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Conscription, Draft, Honduras, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404946 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404946 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Oneal 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Oneal 
Author-Name: Bruce Russett 
Author-X-Name-First: Bruce 
Author-X-Name-Last: Russett 
Title: Comment: Why &#x201c;an identified systemic model of the democracy-peace nexus&#x201d; does not persuade 
Abstract:
  In their article in this journal, James, Solberg and Wolfson (1999)
 challenge our findings that two states are more likely to have peaceful
 relations if they are both democratic. They claim to develop a
 simultaneous system of two equations showing that peace and democracy
 foster each other, and that the effect of peace in encouraging democracy
 is stronger than that of democracy on peace. Their analysis, however, is
 flawed. Their research design employs measures of dispute and joint
 democracy that are inferior to those now common in the literature, and
 their equation for predicting peace is not properly specified. These
 problems distort their results. Even so, their results provide evidence of
 the pacific benefits of democracy. Analyses we conduct with a more
 completely specified model reveal stronger support for the democratic
 &#x201c; peace. Furthermore, a test of the effect of interstate conflict
 on democracy should be done at the national (or monadic) level of
 analysis; but James et al. perform a dyadic analysis. In a monadic test
 using vector autoregression, we find that disputes make no contribution to
 explaining the character of regimes. Even with their dyadic method, their
 finding that peace promotes democracy is not robust Including a crucial
 control variable, the ratio of militarily relevant national capabilities,
 that James et al. omitted, dramatically alters their findings. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 197-214 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Democracy, Democratic peace, War, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404947 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404947 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Patrick James 
Author-X-Name-First: Patrick 
Author-X-Name-Last: James 
Author-Name: Eric Solberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solberg 
Author-Name: Murray Wolfson 
Author-X-Name-First: Murray 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolfson 
Title: Democracy and peace: Reply to oneal and russett 
Abstract:
  The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and
 Russett (OR) is not responsive to the methodologica] issues at stake. JSW
 argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and
 economic system. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a
 structural equation in a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that
 &#x201c;democracies never fight each other,&#x201d; OR rely on a single
 equation to justify their view. JSW claim that such an equation may be an
 ad hoc reduced form with no causal implications unless the equation is
 explicitly identified as a structural equation. JSW expand the model to
 explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous variables. JSW do not
 claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by
 their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that
 unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a system, the
 results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a reliable
 guide to public policy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 215-229 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Peace-democracy, International relations, Simultaneous system, Identification problem, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404948 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404948 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:215-229




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alfonso Diaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Alfonso 
Author-X-Name-Last: Diaz 
Author-Name: Emily Goldman 
Author-X-Name-First: Emily 
Author-X-Name-Last: Goldman 
Title: Resourcing for defense: Solving the roles and missions puzzle 
Abstract:
  One of the most important issues facing the post-Cold War U.S. defense
 establishment concerns the future allocation of combat tasks and
 responsibilities among different branches of the armed forces. The
 challenge is to reduce unnecessary redundancy across roles and missions
 when resources are highly constrained, without compromising military
 effectiveness. Defining the policy problem as one of resource allocation
 rather than operational effectiveness, we develop a methodology for
 allocating roles and missions. Our methodology focuses at the highest
 level of force aggregation and uses a mathematical programming model to
 produce cross-service cross-mission trade-offs that will yield the best
 total force combat and non-combat potential within resource consumption
 constraints. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 231-269 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Roles and missions, Defense analysis, Defense planning, Force planning, Inter-service rivalry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404949 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404949 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ann Markusen 
Author-X-Name-First: Ann 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markusen 
Author-Name: Claude Serfati 
Author-X-Name-First: Claude 
Author-X-Name-Last: Serfati 
Title: Remaking the military industrial relationship: A French-American comparison 
Abstract:
  Defense industrial complexes in leading Cold War nations have downsized
 and reallocated resources to other productive activities in the 1990s. In
 this paper, we analyze the experience of two key countries - the US and
 France. Comparing the two countries, we find similar outcomes in budgetary
 retrenchment and large firm restructuring but marked differences in the
 pace of downsizing and diversification among small and medium-sized firms.
 We hypothesize that three sets of contextual differences may explain these
 differences: 1) institutional differences in the way that the State
 bureaucracies - the Pentagon and the French Delegation generale pour
 l'armement (DGA) - oversee defense industrial matters, 2) differences in
 military industry ownership and firm size patterns, and 3) differences in
 the regional distribution of defense industrial capacity and associated
 regional policies. In closing, we note that the two countries' defense
 industrial complexes are becoming more alike and speculate on the
 significance of invidious competition and interactions between them. We
 address briefly the future of French/American arms industrial competition
 and cooperation, given the trend towards transnational security
 arrangements and defense industry globalization 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 271-299 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: defense industry, civil/military integration, defense conversion, military procurement, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404950 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404950 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andy Pike 
Author-X-Name-First: Andy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pike 
Author-Name: James Cornford 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cornford 
Author-Name: John Tomaney 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tomaney 
Title: Defence closure and job loss: The case of swan hunter on tyneside 
Abstract:
  Recently in this journal Hooper and Butler (1996) drew attention to the
 scale of job loss associated with restructuring in the defence sector in
 the aftermath of the Cold War. They noted that there is comparatively
 little knowledge of the experiences of workers following the closure of
 defence plants. This research communication attempts to shed further light
 on this issue by reporting the results of a survey of the experiences of
 former Swan Hunter shipyard workers who were made redundant after the firm
 went into receivership. The results confirm the complex but generally
 negative effect of redundancy on the workers involved. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 301-312 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Redundancy, Swan Hunter, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404951 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404951 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tim Williams 
Author-X-Name-First: Tim 
Author-X-Name-Last: Williams 
Title: The defence industry supply chain: Linkage patterns in the south west of england 
Abstract:
  In this paper, new data from the south west of England are used to
 illustrate that defence dependent firms are likely to purchase more inputs
 locally than less defence-dependent firms. The results confirm that the
 defence industry's supply chain has unusual characterises and that defence
 industrial restructuring is therefore, likely to produce different
 outcomes to previous rounds of manufacturing restructuring. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 313-328 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: British defence industry, Supply chain, Agglomeration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404952 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404952 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:313-328




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen Martin 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Martin 
Title: Book Review 
Abstract:
  Neil Cooper. The Business of Death: Britain's Arms Trade at Home and
 Abroad. I. B. Tauris Publishers, London, 1997. pp. 226 + xiii. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 329-331 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404953 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404953 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:329-331




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Title: Concepts of defense economics for the 21st century 
Abstract:
  A useful anticipation of defense economics must rest upon the dramatic,
 continuing, and confusing upheaval in the functions of military forces in
 the world of the coming century. This essay tries to reflect the
 staggering array of new features which impact on the provision of national
 defense and international security; as these profoundly shape the
 discipline of &#x201c;defense economics,&#x201d; they will elevate in
 importance the social, cultural, developmental, and legal interactions
 between economics and defense so that the subject will fit far more
 comfortably into the realm of political economy than it did when it
 originated decades ago. With this perspective in mind, this introduction
 is focused on categories defining the core of &#x201c;defense
 economics&#x201d; in the coming decades. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 17-30 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: International security, Political economy, Defense and Peace economics, War and Society, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404936 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404936 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: The econometrics of arms races 
Abstract:
  There is now a large empirical literature on estimating arms races. This
 paper surveys some of the econometric issues involved in estimating
 action-reaction models of such races. Starting from the traditional
 Richardson model, it examines issues of identification, specification, and
 the role of expectations and structural stability. This is done both for
 the case where the variables are stationary and where they may be I(1) and
 cointegrated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 31-43 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms races, Econometrics, Action-reaction models, Richardson model, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404937 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404937 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Intriljgator 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Intriljgator 
Author-Name: Dagobert Brito 
Author-X-Name-First: Dagobert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brito 
Title: Arms Races 
Abstract:
  Recent developments in arms races and their theoretical analysis are
 treated, including the changing nature of arms races and their impacts on
 arms expenditure and international stability. The dominant East-West arms
 race of the Cold War has ended, but arms races still exist, and it is
 likely that even greater instabilities exist after the Cold War. Future
 analyses must take account of both increasing returns to scale in
 production and sophisticated projections of weapons levels. Recent results
 from the theory of repeated games, including rational learning, may
 provide the needed foundation for a new paradigm for the arms race. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 45-54 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms race, Arms expenditure, Increasing returns, International stability, Rational learning, Repeated games, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404938 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404938 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:45-54




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Anderton 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton 
Title: Exchange of goods or exchange of blows? New directions in conflict and exchange 
Abstract:
  Although defense and peace economics has expanded its interest toward
 post-Cold War violence, our theme is that conflict potential weaves itself
 into the decisions of consumers, producers, and traders in ways that
 economists have essentially ignored. This is the lesson of our model which
 combines Ricardian trade with the potential for appropriation under ratio
 and logistic conflict technology. The model shows that economic activities
 like production and exchange are fundamentally altered in the presence of
 conflict potential. The model also implies that arms rivalry and the
 technology of conflict exist in non-international forms within the
 production/exchange economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 55-71 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Conflict, Appropriation, Property rights, Exchange, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404939 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404939 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:55-71




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Minoru Okamura 
Author-X-Name-First: Minoru 
Author-X-Name-Last: Okamura 
Title: Simultaneous provision of defense and aid: Empirical evidence from the united states-Japan alliance 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a multiple public-good model to investigate the
 simultaneous provision of military goods and foreign aid as international
 public goods. The model enables us to probe the effect of comparative
 advantage in providing public goods. By applying the model to the United
 States-Japan alliance, we find that within the framework of the alliance
 the United States will specialize in the provision of military goods,
 while Japan will specialize in foreign aid; that is, the United States has
 a comparative advantage in the provision of military goods, and Japan in
 foreign aid. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 73-91 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Multiple public-good model, Alliance, Aid, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404940 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404940 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:73-91




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Author-Name: Beth Asch 
Author-X-Name-First: Beth 
Author-X-Name-Last: Asch 
Title: Themes in defence manpower economics and challenges for the future 
Abstract:
  Raising and maintaining military forces have posed enormous challenges
 for the United States and its allies. Economists have made significant
 contributions to understanding of how to recruit and manage such forces.
 This paper highlights key past contributions and discusses challenges for
 future research. Rapid changes in the roles and missions of military
 personnel, technology, and the civilian labor market pose serious
 challenges for future military manpower policy and will challenge
 economists to develop new approaches to military recruiting and personnel
 management. Yet the body of past research can continue to provide insight
 and guidance in making decisions about defense manpower. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 93-103 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Military, Manpower, Personnel, Compensation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404941 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404941 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:93-103




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Title: Disarmament in the next millennium 
Abstract:
  The economic analysis of disarmament in the next millennium may be
 developed from three main perspectives: At the end of the 20th century,
 the data seem to confirm, at least partially, the reality of a world
 disarmament process. There is an obsolescence of the disarmament analyses
 developed since the end of World War n, with arms race models and
 macroeconomics theories of disarmament. In the 21st century, the
 disarmament process will have to take new forms, and integrate other
 aspects than those traditionally considered, notably the economic crisis
 and the maintenance of economic wars. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-125 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Disarmament, Economic war, Conversion, Peace investment, Economic thought, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404942 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404942 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:105-125




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cassady Craft 
Author-X-Name-First: Cassady 
Author-X-Name-Last: Craft 
Title: An analysis of the Washington naval agreements and the economic provisions of arms control theory 
Abstract:
  During the Cold War, two contending hypotheses dominated theories
 concerning the economic impact of anus control. The first suggested that
 when certain prerequisites were fulfilled, arms control agreements served
 to promote lasting reduction in military spending. The second asserted
 that instead of promoting savings, arms control encouraged diversion of
 resources to more advanced and expensive weapons, thus driving defense
 spending higher. Through the examination of the impact of the Washington
 Naval Agreements on naval expenditure during the 1920s, this paper
 provides empirical evidence to support the latter of these competing
 hypotheses. The United States, Great Britain, and Japan all realized
 economic savings after signing the Washington Naval Agreements. However,
 these savings soon eroded as the powers developed more advanced
 weapons-systems. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 127-148 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms control, Defense expenditures, Arms race, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404943 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404943 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:1:p:127-148




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Kirkpatrick 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kirkpatrick 
Title: Life cycle costs for decision support - a study of the various life cycle costs used at different levels of defence policy and management 
Abstract:
  Debates on many aspects of defence economics - on the scale of defence
 expenditure, on the allocation of that expenditure to various military
 capabilities, and on the selection of equipment offering the best value
 for money - are bedevilled by misunderstandings and misconceptions about
 the costs of defence equipment. This paper seeks to improve understanding
 of defence equipment costs by defining a hierarchy of defence equipment
 within which the direct and indirect life cycle costs of defence equipment
 may be allocated at different levels. Having reviewed the direct and
 indirect components of the life cycle cost, this paper then shows how
 different costing studies for different purposes require different
 approaches to life cycle costing, and that there is no unique life cycle
 cost which can be assigned to one particular item of defence equipment.
 There is instead a range oflife cycle costs, each of which is appropriate
 for a particular study, and it is important that a quoted cost of an item
 of defence equipment should be used only in the pertinent circumstances.
 The paper is written from a UK perspective and accordingly uses British
 nomenclature, but its principles should be relevant to defence cost
 studies in other nations. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 333-368 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Life cycle costs, Defence management, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404954 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404954 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:333-368




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Chinworth 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chinworth 
Title: Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects 
Abstract:
  Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous
 inputs - including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological
 base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the
 United States and internal bureaucratic politics - but with the fall of
 the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending
 disappeared. Double-digit defense spending increases that were common in
 the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present
 inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's
 defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government
 pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total
 spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result,
 the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained
 conditions from the growth years of a decade before. Government
 policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well
 as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course
 for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty
 with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government
 positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are
 open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling
 additional pressures for defense budget cuts. The domestic defense
 industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in
 this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset
 declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by
 policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re-examination
 of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to
 respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 369-401 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Japan, Security policy, Defense industry, Kokusanka, FSX/F-2, Theater Missile Defense (TMD), Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), Defense procurement, Budgets, U.S. Security Treaty, Defense technology cooperation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404955 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404955 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:369-401




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. S. Andreoua 
Author-X-Name-First: A. S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreoua 
Author-Name: G. A. Zombanakisb 
Author-X-Name-First: G. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakisb 
Title: Financial versus human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks 
Abstract:
  This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting
 from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading
 determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of
 GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of
 the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of
 artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory
 variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that
 the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is
 determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly
 favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence
 expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation
 of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish
 side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 403-426 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Greek military debt, defence expenditure, neural networks, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404956 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404956 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:403-426




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: A note on defence spending in turkey: New findings 
Abstract:
  The relationship between defence spending and economic growth has been
 examined extensively in recent years using the Feder (1983) model. These
 studies suffer from poor statistical results. In this paper, the earlier
 findings of Sezgin (1997), which used the Feder model are re-estimated.
 Firstly, the stationarity of variables is tested. Due to the
 non-stationarity of some variables, regressions are performed using first
 differences of variables. Secondly, lags are introduced into the Feder
 model. The statistical results are highly improved. Not only is a strong
 positive association between defence spending and economic growth found
 for Turkey, but also human capital is positively correlated to Turkish
 economic growth with a lag. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 427-435 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Turkey, Defence expenditure, Economic growth, Unit root tests, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404957 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404957 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:427-435




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nick Hooper 
Author-X-Name-First: Nick 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hooper 
Author-Name: Stephen Martin 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Martin 
Title: Book Review 
Abstract:
  The politics and economics of defence industries: E. Inbar and B.
 Zilberfarb (eds), Frank Cass Publishers, London and Portland, Oregon,
 1998, pp. xviii+225. Russia and the Arms Trade: Ian Anthony (ed.), Oxford
 University Press, SIPRI, 1998, pp. xiv+304. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 437-442 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404958 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404958 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:437-442




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Author-Name: Somnath Sen 
Author-X-Name-First: Somnath 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sen 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: Editorial Introduction: Arms Exports, Controls and Production 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 443-444 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404959 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404959 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:443-444




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: The benefits and costs of the UK arms trade 
Abstract:
  A benefit-cost framework and the associated evidence is used to evaluate
 UK arms exports. Two issues are examined in detail. First, trade
 externalities; and second, a case study of the problems and costs of
 maintaining the UK submarine industrial base without exports. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 445-459 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: UK arms exports, Benefits and costs, Trade externalities, UK submarine industrial base, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404960 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404960 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:445-459




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: Potential and actual arms production: Implications for the arms trade debate 
Abstract:
  In this paper I develop indices and rankings of potential and actual arms
 production for about one hundred and fifty countries for data pertaining
 to the early to mid-1990s. The countries' ranked indices are then
 compared. I find evidence that countries that can produce arms (potential)
 do produce arms (actual). I also compare the current findings to findings
 published nine years ago, pertaining to potential and actual arms
 production in developing nations for the early 1980s. A number of
 countries then having the potential to produce arms have, in fact, become
 major arms producers ten years later. The results presented in this paper
 carry policy implications for the arms trade debate: shall policymakers
 continue to focus on arms supply restriction and continue to ignore the
 increasing capacity of developing nations to self-supply their arms
 demand? 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 461-480 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms production, Arms trade, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404961 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404961 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:461-480




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maria del Carmen Garcia-Alonso 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria del Carmen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garcia-Alonso 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: Export controls, market structure and international coordination 
Abstract:
  We look at the different ways of aggregating the exports of dual use
 products to give the security perception of exporter countries and their
 consistency with the relevant export control regimes. Also, we analyze
 different models of export controls highlighting the role of the
 perception of security, market structure and competition between exporting
 firms in determining the existence of multiple equilibria and therefore,
 the need for coordination between countries in setting export controls. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 481-503 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms control, Coordination games, International agreements, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404962 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404962 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:481-503




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Author-Name: Fotis Mouzakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Fotis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mouzakis 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: Arms export controls and emerging domestic producers 
Abstract:
  The possibility of domestic production raises a difficulty for arms
 export control measures, since embargoes, by raising the effective price
 of imports, increase the incentive for domestic production. We address
 this issue by developing a partial equilibrium model of the international
 arms market We compare three arms export regimes involving the exporters
 of high-technology arms, with a particular focus on the effect of emerging
 domestic production: laissez-faire trade, the uncoordinated regulation of
 exports and a producer cartel consisting of coordinated regulation. The
 main conclusion is that the possibility of domestic production
 significantly changes the nature of these stylized export regimes. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 505-531 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms trade, Emerging production, Regulation, Defence economics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404963 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404963 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:505-531




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Arms trade, arms control, and security: Collective action issues 
Abstract:
  This article puts forth collection action as a unifying theme for the
 conference essays on arms trade, control, and production. For each of
 these topics, collective action failures are related to group size and
 group composition considerations. Other issues are also examined including
 the manner in which individual contributions determine the overall level
 of the associated collective good - the so-called aggregation technology
 of public supply. Based on alternative aggregation technologies, the
 game-theoretic underpinnings of these arms issues are explored. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 533-548 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms trade, Arms control, Arms production, Collective action, Game theory, Exploitation hypothesis, Arms races, Offsets, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404964 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404964 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:3:p:533-548




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Andre Roux 
Author-X-Name-First: Andre 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roux 
Title: Introduction: Defence, peace and economic growth in South Africa 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 549-551 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404965 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404965 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:549-551




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Batchelor 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Batchelor 
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: David Saal 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Saal 
Title: Military spending and economic growth in South Africa 
Abstract:
  This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of
 military spending on the South African economy. It estimates a
 neo-classical model common in the literature at the level of the
 macroeconomy and at the level of the manufacturing sector. An attempt is
 made to improve upon the model by allowing the data to determine the
 dynamic structure of the model through an ARDL procedure. No significant
 impact of military spending is found in aggregate, but there is a
 significant negative impact for the manufacturing sector. This suggests
 that the cuts in domestic military procurement that have occurred since
 1989 could lead to improved economic performance in South Africa through
 their impact on the manufacturing sector. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 553-571 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Military spending, Growth, South Africa, Externalities, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404966 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404966 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:553-571




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Author-Name: Andre Roux 
Author-X-Name-First: Andre 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roux 
Title: Defence spending and economic growth in South Africa: A supply and demand model 
Abstract:
  This paper provides a contribution to the growing corpus of knowledge and
 understanding of the interaction between economic growth and defence
 spending in South Africa by specifying a Keynesian simultaneous equation
 model and estimating the system for the period 1961 to 1997. The model
 contains a growth equation, a savings equation, a trade balance equation
 and a military burden equation and when estimated by single equation and
 systems estimation methods is relatively well specified. There is evidence
 of an overall negative effect of military spending on the economy over
 this period, though the significance of individual coefficients is low.
 There is certainly no evidence of any positive impact, suggesting that
 cuts in military spending do present an opportunity for improved
 macroeconomic performance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 573-585 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: South Africa, Defence spending, Economic growth, Simultaneous equation model (SEM), Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS), 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404967 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404967 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:573-585




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Duncan Watson 
Author-X-Name-First: Duncan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Watson 
Title: Military expenditure and employment in South Africa 
Abstract:
  Previous research into the impact of military expenditure on employment
 finds considerable variation across countries. This paper adds to the
 debate by examining the long run relationship between military burden and
 manufacturing employment in South Africa. Such an analysis provides an
 opportunity to test for crowding-out effects and the impact of the marked
 decline in military spending on the South African economy. The paper finds
 evidence supporting the view that military expenditure will have a
 detrimental impact on long term manufacturing employment, adversely
 affecting industrial structure and efficiency. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 587-596 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Military burden, Employment, Manufacturing, Crowding-out, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404968 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404968 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:587-596




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alvin Birdi 
Author-X-Name-First: Alvin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Birdi 
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: David Saal 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Saal 
Title: The impact of arms production on the South African manufacturing industry 
Abstract:
  The 1977 UN arms embargo was one of the main factors which led South
 Africa to establish a largely self sufficient import-substituting arms
 industry capable of meeting the apartheid state's demand for sophisticated
 weaponry. While macroeconomic studies suggest that high military spending
 had a damaging effect on economic growth, no studies have investigated the
 disaggregated impact of military expenditure on industrial development.
 This paper applies panel data methods to the Industrial Development
 Corporation's Sectoral Database in order to analyse the level effects of
 military spending. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 597-613 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Arms production, Government spending, Manufacturing, Panel data, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404969 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404969 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:597-613




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Batchelor 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Batchelor 
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Sepideh Parsa 
Author-X-Name-First: Sepideh 
Author-X-Name-Last: Parsa 
Title: Corporate performance and military production in South Africa 
Abstract:
  With the end of the Cold War and apartheid, a process of demilitarisation
 and dramatic cuts in military spending has marked the transition to
 democracy in South Africa. Between 1989 and 1997 the South African defence
 budget was cut by more than 50% in real terms, with most of the cuts
 coming from the procurement budget, which was cut by nearly 70% in real
 terms during the same period. These cuts have had a significant impact on
 the country's defence industrial base. However, there has been
 surprisingly little research on the changes to defence companies that have
 taken place since the late 1980s. This paper makes a start at rectifying
 that deficiency by providing an analysis of the restructuring of the major
 defence-dependent companies over the period 1988-97. It uses a number of
 financial ratios and other measures of corporate performance to compare
 their experience with non-defence companies in the rest of the South
 African economy during the same period. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 615-641 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Demilitarisation, Restructuring, Downsizing, Diversification, Corporate performance, South Africa, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404970 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404970 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:615-641




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Author-Name: Andre Roux 
Author-X-Name-First: Andre 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roux 
Title: Peace as an international public good: An application to Southern Africa 
Abstract:
  This paper reviews the basic economic concepts relevant to international
 public goods production and applies them to the case of security and peace
 in southern Africa. To this end, it extracts from the literature a set of
 fundamental features that help determine the likelihood of success of any
 collective action and applies these features to the current southern
 African context. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 643-659 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 11 
Year: 2000 
Keywords: Peace, Security, Public goods, Southern Africa, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404971 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404971 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:4:p:643-659




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-3 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404973 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404973 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:1:p:1-3




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Author-Name: Dimitrios Vougas 
Author-X-Name-First: Dimitrios 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vougas 
Title: Defence spending and economic growth: A causal analysis for Greece and Turkey 
Abstract:
  There are a number of studies which consider the relation between
 military spending and economic growth using Granger causality techniques
 rather than a well-defined economic model. Some have used samples of
 groups of countries, finding no consistent results. Others have focused on
 case studies of individual countries, which has the advantage of the
 researchers bringing to bear much more data than the cross country samples
 and a greater knowledge of the structure of the economy and the budget.
 This paper adds to the literature by providing an analysis of two
 countries, Greece and Turkey, which are particularly interesting case
 studies given their high military burdens, the poor relations between the
 two and the resulting arms race in the area. In addition to analysing the
 data using standard &#x201c;pre-cointegration&#x201d; Granger causality
 techniques, this paper employs modern vector autoregressive (VAR)
 methodology that utilises cointegration via Granger's representation
 theorem. The standard Granger causality tests suggest a positive effect of
 changing military burden on growth for Greece, but this is not sustained
 when the cointegration between output and military burden is taken into
 account. The only evidence of significant Granger causality is a negative
 impact of military burden on growth in Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 5-26 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military spending, Economic growth, Granger causality, Greece, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404974 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404974 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:1:p:5-26




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gulay Gunluk-Senesen 
Author-X-Name-First: Gulay 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gunluk-Senesen 
Title: Measuring the extent of defence expenditures: The Turkish case with Turkish data 
Abstract:
  The procurement expenditures financed by the Defence Industry Fund, the
 main administering body of the Turkish modernization program since 1983,
 have been an overlooked issue. A comparative discussion is attempted on
 the extent of defence expenditures during 1980-1997 with national data,
 using various ratios of defence expenditures in the literature (e.g. wrt
 NI, GDP, total budget expenditures, health plus education expenditures)
 and accounting for the Fund expenditures. The main outcome is that
 starting in 1986, the defence allocations of Turkey are systematically
 underestimated with conventional measures based on budget data. It is also
 demonstrated that the direction of the arming trend is sensitive to
 underlying data. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 27-45 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Turkey, Defence Expenditures, Defence Industry Support Fund, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404975 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404975 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:1:p:27-45




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: Military expenditure and economic growth: A demand and supply model for Greece, 1960-96 
Abstract:
  This paper contributes to the continuing debate on the economic effects
 of military expenditure by undertaking a case study of Greece. Within
 Europe Greece provides a particularly interesting object of study. It has
 the highest military burden in Europe and NATO, is the only European Union
 country situated in the unstable environment of the Balkans, faces a
 military threat from Turkey, and has a very weak economy. After some
 background analysis of the economy and military expenditure, the paper
 investigates the determinants of Greek military expenditure as well as
 whether the high military burden has played an important role in Greece's
 poor economic performance over the period 1960-1996. It estimates a
 Keynesian simultaneous equation model with a supply side, which allows the
 indirect effects of military expenditure to be captured explicitly. It
 concludes that the major determinants of Greek defence spending are not
 economic but strategic (the threat of war) and that the direct effect of
 defence spending on economic growth as well as the indirect effects
 through savings and trade balance are all significantly negative. On the
 basis of such strong results, the paper concludes that defence spending is
 harmful for the Greek economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 47-67 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Greece, Military expenditure, Economic effects, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404976 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404976 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:1:p:47-67




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: An empirical analysis of turkey's defence-growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956-1994) 
Abstract:
  This study analyses defence-growth relationships in Turkey for the years
 1956 and 1994. After a review of the empirical studies on the
 defence-growth relationship, the relationship is investigated with a Deger
 type demand and supply side model using 2SLS and 3SLS simultaneous
 equation method. The study concludes that Turkey's economic growth is
 stimulated by its defence sector while defence spending has no significant
 effect on savings and the balance of trade. The study also concludes that
 the major determinants of Turkish defence spending are its income level,
 the conflict with PKK (Kurdish Worker's Party) and Greece's defence
 spending. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 69-86 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Turkey, Defence-Growth relationships, Defence spending, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404977 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404977 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Throsby 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Throsby 
Author-Name: Glenn Withers 
Author-X-Name-First: Glenn 
Author-X-Name-Last: Withers 
Title: Individual preferences and the demand for military expenditure 
Abstract:
  Whose preferences determine the tradeoff between security and civilian
 output in deciding upon budget allocations to defence? This paper
 considers the role that consumer preferences might play in influencing
 military spending. We propose normative criteria to judge the economic or
 political efficiency of defence provision at a given time, and test them
 using Australian survey-based micro-data. Our results suggest that the
 political system has not delivered a simple social-choice translation of
 individual preferences into collective outcomes, nor has it delivered
 results consistent with simple majority-voting median preferences. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 87-102 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military spending, Demand for defence, Social choice, Contingent valuation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404979 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404979 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:2:p:87-102




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Earle 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Earle 
Author-Name: Ivan Komarov 
Author-X-Name-First: Ivan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Komarov 
Title: Measuring defense conversion in Russian industry 
Abstract:
  This paper develops and implements a methodology for quantifying defense
 conversion in Russian manufacturing in the early 1990s. A two-sector,
 three-good model is employed to analyze the flows of resources from
 military to non-military uses and applied to firm-level survey data under
 alternative definitions of military production and the MIC. An aggregation
 framework is constructed to estimate the total quantity and change in
 Russian military production, the latter decomposed into intrafirm and
 intersectoral resource reallocation and overall industrial decline.
 Although there is evidence of substantial decline in military production,
 the data show little reallocation to productive civilian uses, neither
 within the MIC nor to other manufacturing sectors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 103-144 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Conversion, Demilitarization, Military-industrial complex, Military production, Restructuring, Defense industry, Russia, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404980 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404980 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Title: The great power dilemma: The trade-off between defense and growth in great Britain, 1830-1980 
Abstract:
  This study investigates the relationship between British economic
 performance and various macroeconomic factors during the rise and fall of
 Great Britain as a great power from 1830 to 1980. It has generated a
 number of interesting findings. First, Britain's military spending is
 found to have a direct yet negative impact on its economic output Second,
 this negative effect appears to be moderate as compared to the stronger
 positive effect of investment Third, the results reveal that the effects
 of various factors on Britain's economy underwent a structural change
 during this long period of time. The most notable one is military
 spending. It suggests that in the nineteenth century when Britain was on
 the rise and strong, its military spending did not appear to hinder its
 economic performance. However, the trade-off effects emerged in the
 twentieth century to hurt Britain's economy, contributing to Britain's
 relative decline in the post-war era. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 145-156 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military spending, Economic growth, Externality effects, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404981 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404981 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:2:p:145-156




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Guyot 
Author-X-Name-First: Marc 
Author-X-Name-Last: Guyot 
Author-Name: Radu Vranceanu 
Author-X-Name-First: Radu 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vranceanu 
Title: European defence: The cost of partial integration 
Abstract:
  In the last decade, European defence has undergone impressive changes.
 Military alliances between EU member countries have strengthened, and a
 European defence industrial base is building up. But in a paradoxical way,
 European countries look less capable of coping with important military
 crises, and their defence budgets are plunging. This paper proposes an
 explanation for this changing configuration, considering the case of the
 decentralized production of a public good with cross-border spillin
 effects. In this context, increased reliability on allies may lead one
 country to lower defence expenditures and supply. Citizens would welcome
 an increase in defence production, but this outcome might be achieved only
 by a centralized production of defence services. A temporary pragmatic
 solution would consist in assigning appropriate minimum defence spending
 targets to EU member countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 157-174 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: European Union, Defence, Public good, Spillin effect, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404982 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404982 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:2:p:157-174




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Heejoon Kang 
Author-X-Name-First: Heejoon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kang 
Author-Name: Rafael Reuveny 
Author-X-Name-First: Rafael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Reuveny 
Title: Exploring multi-country dynamic relations between trade and conflict 
Abstract:
  Most previous studies use a dyad as the unit of analysis and ignore the
 simultaneity of trade and conflict. The goal of this paper is to find out
 whether multi-country trade and conflict relations are statistically
 significant and the nature of those relations. We employ a multi-country,
 simultaneous framework, using the United States-Soviet Union-(West)
 Germany triangle as an example. The empirical analysis, from the first
 quarter of 1963 to the last quarter of 1991, demonstrates that trade and
 conflict are significantly interrelated, with positive reciprocity and
 inertia. Moreover, we find that dyadic flows strongly affect other dyads.
 The nature of these inter-dyadic effects depends on particular dyads, but
 both inter- and intra-dyad effects are statistically significant. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 175-196 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Intra-dyad effects, Inter-dyad effects, Political economy, Simultaneity, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404983 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404983 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alexei izyumov 
Author-X-Name-First: Alexei 
Author-X-Name-Last: izyumov 
Author-Name: John Vahaly 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vahaly 
Title: The investment/labor ratio in the Russian armed forces: Lessons from the us? 
Abstract:
  The main goal of this paper is to evaluate recent trends in Russian
 military reorganization. In this effort, we enlist the experience of the
 US military's transition from conscription to an all-volunteer force
 (AVF). We show how the US 1970s transition to market-based acquisition of
 labor contributed to a rising military investment-to-labor (?K/L) ratio.
 In Russia since the start of market reforms, this ratio has been falling.
 We explain this divergence by noting the increase in the relative price of
 Russian military capital resulting from the switch to
 &#x201c;quasi-market&#x201d; acquisition of capital while a draft remains
 in use for obtaining labor. Russia's transition to an AVF and the latest
 efforts to &#x201c;recapitalize&#x201d; its military are analyzed and
 evaluated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 197-214 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military manpower, Military investment, Military capital, Conscription, Volunteer force, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404984 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404984 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Scott 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Scott 
Title: Media congestion limits media terrorism 
Abstract:
  In the early 1980s scholars and laymen expected an explosion of terrorism
 fed by media attention. Instead, the quantity of terrorism settled into
 familiar patterns, rather than spiraling upward. This paper attempts to
 explain why the dire predictions did not come to pass. We develop theory
 that explains how terrorists compete for media attention. We find that in
 equilibrium terrorists congest the media, limiting the benefits of
 additional terrorist incidents. Data from 1969 to 1984 substantiate our
 theoretical result. During the period, when the media provided more
 coverage to one terrorist incident, they provided less coverage on other
 incidents. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 215-227 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Terrorism, Media, News, Conflict, Common property, Empirical model, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404985 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404985 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:3:p:215-227




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Watkins 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Watkins 
Author-Name: Maryellen Kelley 
Author-X-Name-First: Maryellen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kelley 
Title: Manufacturing scale, lot sizes and product complexity in defense and commercial manufacturing 
Abstract:
  Almost no systematic empirical analyses exist directly comparing defense
 and commercial manufacturing processes. A unique survey of nearly 1000 US
 manufacturing establishments allows a comparison of similar manufacturing
 processes in the machining intensive durable goods industries, which
 account for more than half of all defense purchases of durable goods.
 Organizations with and without defense contracts do not differ
 statistically in several measures of scale. Neither are production volumes
 or lot sizes different on average in machining operations, though defense
 production does tend more to concentrate where flexible manufacturing
 technologies are well suited. However, defense related machining products
 in this sector are more complex to manufacture. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 229-247 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Defense industry, Manufacturing scale, Product specifications, Survey data, United States, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404986 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404986 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:3:p:229-247




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kevin Siqueira 
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Siqueira 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Models of alliances: Internalizing externalities and financing 
Abstract:
  This paper extends the joint product model of military alliances to apply
 to the new strategic doctrine adopted by NATO in the 1990s. In particular,
 a choice must be made between protecting one's own territory and pooling
 forces for an alliancewide rapid reaction force. This new model accounts
 for a host of externalities and their implications for burden sharing,
 full financing, and allocative efficiency. The Pigouvian taxes that adjust
 for force thinning and attack deflection are shown to finance optimal
 border-protecting forces under a variety of circumstances. Second-best
 considerations arise owing to the pure publicness of rapid reaction
 forces. The ideal toll arrangement does not currently characterize NATO
 financing, nor is it likely to do so. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 249-270 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: NATO, Public goods, Joint products, Financing, Rapid reaction forces, Strategic doctrine, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404987 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404987 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:3:p:249-270




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow 
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow 
Author-Name: Eli Feinerman 
Author-X-Name-First: Eli 
Author-X-Name-Last: Feinerman 
Title: Better weapons or better troops? 
Abstract:
  Many observers of Israel's defense resource allocation process believe
 that insufficient resources are devoted to troop quality, while excessive
 resources are devoted to weapon quality. In this paper, we offer a
 potential explanation for this phenomenon. In our example, officers seek
 to signal their ability through their budgeting choices. Signaling
 behavior, combined with the timing and informational structure of defense
 decision-making, results in a sub-optimal allocation of resources to
 training and troop quality. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 271-284 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military budget, Officer reputation, Weapon quality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404988 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404988 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bruce Linster 
Author-X-Name-First: Bruce 
Author-X-Name-Last: Linster 
Author-Name: Richard Fullerton 
Author-X-Name-First: Richard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fullerton 
Author-Name: Michael Mckee 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mckee 
Author-Name: Stephen Slate 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Slate 
Title: Rent-seeking models of international competition: An experimental investigation 
Abstract:
  This paper experimentally tests a number of hypotheses that follow from
 models of international competition that are based on Tullock style
 rent-seeking models. Specifically, we designed and performed experiments
 to see how variations in the degree of publicness in the prize as well as
 changes in the values assigned to the prize affect alliances in terms of
 individual nation contributions, total contributions, burden sharing, and
 the likelihood of winning the prize. While there was substantial variation
 in individual behavior, the results of the experiments generally conform
 to the theoretical predictions of the rent-seeking model of international
 competition and alliances. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 285-302 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Rent seeking, Alliances, Defense spending, Military competition, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404989 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404989 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:4:p:285-302




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. S. Andreou 
Author-X-Name-First: A. S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreou 
Author-Name: G. A. Zombanakis 
Author-X-Name-First: G. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakis 
Title: A neural network measurement of relative military security - the case of Greece and Cyprus 
Abstract:
  This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to
 evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies.
 This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role
 in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece
 and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our
 relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural
 networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative
 security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of
 alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek-Turkish arms
 race on the relative security of the Greek-Cypriot alliance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 303-324 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Arms race, Neural networks, Relative military security, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404990 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404990 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:4:p:303-324




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Scott 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Scott 
Title: Does UK defence spending crowd-out UK private sector investment? 
Abstract:
  This study tests the hypothesis that defence spending
 &#x201c;crowds-out&#x201d; civil investment. It uses UK data for 1974-96.
 The results suggest that the crowding-out of investment takes place
 entirely in the private sector. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 325-336 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Crowding-out, Investment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404991 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404991 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:4:p:325-336




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Derrick Neal 
Author-X-Name-First: Derrick 
Author-X-Name-Last: Neal 
Author-Name: Trevor Taylor 
Author-X-Name-First: Trevor 
Author-X-Name-Last: Taylor 
Title: Globalisation in the defence industry: An exploration of the paradigm for us and European defence firms and the implications for being global players 
Abstract:
  This paper explores some of the key issues associated with the
 restructuring of the defence industry. A comparison is made between the US
 and the European Defence Industrial Bases in terms of the drivers for
 change and the paradigms within which change has taken place. Having shown
 that some very important differences exist, the paper then explores the
 approaches that have been adopted for industry consolidation and
 references them to the academic literature on mergers and acquisitions
 (M&As) and strategic alliances (SAs). Given that most of the key defence
 players recognise the need to be global players, the paper presents an
 argument that the European firms' experience of operating with a wide
 range of forms of corporate alliance will serve them in good stead for
 operating on a global defence scale. US firms, in contrast, have focused
 largely on M&A activity. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 337-338 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Globalisation, Defence industry restructuring, Strategic alliances, Change drivers in the defence industry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404992 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404992 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:4:p:337-338




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Lock 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lock 
Title: Book review 
Abstract:
  Ksenia Gonchar, Russia's Defense Industry at the Turn of the Century,
 Brief 17, Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), Bonn November
 2000, 60 pp. Summaries in English, German and Russian. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 361-362 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404993 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404993 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:4:p:361-362




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alain Cuenca 
Author-X-Name-First: Alain 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cuenca 
Author-Name: Aurelia Valino 
Author-X-Name-First: Aurelia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Valino 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 363-367 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404994 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404994 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:363-367




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maria-Dolores Gadea 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria-Dolores 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gadea 
Author-Name: Antonio Montanes 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Montanes 
Title: An analysis of defence spending in Spain: A long-run approach 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the behaviour of Spanish public spending on defence
 for the period 1850-1995. Through the use of recent cointegration and unit
 root techniques, we demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium
 relationship between this variable and Spanish GDP during the years in
 question. Furthermore, the income elasticity of this relationship is shown
 to be equal to one. Finally, the detection and removal of a number of
 additive outliers, all of them related to different periods of military
 conflict, appears to be vital in obtaining these results. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 369-393 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Defence spending, Unit roots, Cointegration, Additive outliers, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404995 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404995 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:369-393




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aurelia Valino Castro 
Author-X-Name-First: Aurelia Valino 
Author-X-Name-Last: Castro 
Title: Defence spending in Spain 
Abstract:
  This paper is divided into two parts. The first analyses the Spanish
 defence investment budget. This study identifies important financial
 problems. In an overall context of budget restrictions, Spanish defence
 expenditures are going to increase due to the transition to an
 all-volunteer recruitment system together with the necessity of
 modernizing an obsolete armament. In the second part, the Spanish defence
 budget is compared with other of NATO and European non-NATO countries.
 Spain is classified in the same group as Portugal, Greece and Turkey.
 Although Spain has begun its transition to an all-volunteer recruitment
 system, it still retains the characteristic of a compulsory one. After
 studying the relation between defence budget per soldier and its
 components with several variables, we can conclude that there is no
 relation between professionalizing the armed forces and the increase of
 armament expenditure per soldier. That conclusion is important for the
 Spanish budget restriction. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 395-415 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Spanish defence budget, Defence investment expenditures, Recruitment system, Ccomparative analysis, Spanish armament procurement, Spanish R&D, Defence expenditure per soldier, Professional armed forces, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404996 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404996 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:395-415




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jordi Molas-Gallart 
Author-X-Name-First: Jordi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Molas-Gallart 
Title: Government defence research establishments: The uncertain outcome of institutional change 
Abstract:
  The roles and structure of government defence research establishments are
 being redefined in several European countries. So far, large-scale
 government controlled defence research establishments have played a key
 function in the development of technological capabilities in the defence
 field. These organisations are now facing downsizing drives as well as
 attempts at injecting a commercial logic into their operations. As a
 consequence their relationships with government defence agencies and
 defence industrial suppliers are changing. This paper analyses these
 changes with special reference to the British case, and explores their
 potential implications for European research policy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 417-437 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Defence Research Establishments, European research policy, DERA, DARPA, Weapons laboratories, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404997 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404997 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:417-437




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mikel Buesa 
Author-X-Name-First: Mikel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Buesa 
Title: Controlling the international exchanges of armaments and dual-use technologies: The case of Spain 
Abstract:
  This paper deals with the economic effects of the control systems for
 armament exports and civil-military technologies. It describes the
 institutional framework, taking into account its changes in conception and
 orientation which occurred due to the dissolution in 1994 of the COCOM and
 the signing of the Wassenaar Agreement. These changes affected Spanish
 exports, which are studied on the basis of the data from the period 1991 -
 1999. The control systems affected 1 per cent of Spanish exports. This
 impact has been decreasing over time, after the institutional change.
 Computer industries, telecommunications and aerospace have been the most
 affected industries. Exports subject to authorisation were the ones to
 other members of NATO and the Asian economies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 439-464 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Armament, Civil - Military technologies, Export control, Defence industry, COCOM, Wassenaar agreement, Group of nuclear suppliers, Australian group, Control of missile technology regime, Chemical arms convention, Spain, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404998 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404998 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:439-464




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pedro Gonzalez De La Fe 
Author-X-Name-First: Pedro Gonzalez 
Author-X-Name-Last: De La Fe 
Author-Name: Daniel Montolio 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Montolio 
Title: Has Spain been free-riding in nato? An econometric approach&#x2020; 
Abstract:
  This paper examines the possible free-riding behaviour followed by Spain
 since the country joined NATO in 1982. Using a joint product model, we
 specify a reduced-form equation for the Spanish demand for military
 expenditure during the period 1977-1997. Our empirical estimates suggest
 that Spain could have been free-riding on NATO during this period. A
 possible more specific free-rider behaviour by Spain in relation to some
 of its Mediterranean military allies (France, Italy and Portugal) is
 examined as well. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 465-485 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Demand for Military Expenditure, Free-Riding, NATO, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108404999 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108404999 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Claudia Perez-Formes 
Author-X-Name-First: Claudia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perez-Formes 
Author-Name: Alain Cuenca 
Author-X-Name-First: Alain 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cuenca 
Title: Nato in the post-cold war: An empirical analysis 
Abstract:
  The aim of this paper is to empirically test whether the behaviour of the
 fifteen countries that make-up the NATO Alliance during the period
 1989-1998, effectively responded to the new challenges implied by the
 doctrine of crisis management. To that end, we use the analytical
 instrument offered by the joint production model, which still remains
 valid today. The econometric results would appear to confirm the arguments
 on the loss of significance of the free rider hypothesis and the relevance
 acquired by world stability as an explanatory factor. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 487-496 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: The economics of military alliances, NATO, Defence spending, Post-Cold War era, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108405000 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108405000 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:5:p:487-496




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anthony Lyons 
Author-X-Name-First: Anthony 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lyons 
Title: Modelling international conflict under conditions of state level economic and political uncertainty 
Abstract:
  Formal models of international conflict have tended to concentrate on
 change across the security dimension, assuming that the state level
 economic and political dimensions are constant. However, the conclusion of
 the Cold War suggests that over the long run these dimensions are not
 constant; indeed, the development of economic power, state level limits on
 defence expenditures, structural impediments to economic change, and
 several other 'constants' clearly do have an endogenous role in
 international conflict. This paper suggests one strategy for their
 inclusion as a causal factor in conflict modelling. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 497-535 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Conflict, balance of power, economic and political uncertainty, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108405001 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108405001 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:6:p:497-535




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Saal 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Saal 
Title: The impact of procurement-driven technological change on U.S. manufacturing productivity growth 
Abstract:
  As we enter the 21st Century, technologies originally developed for
 defense purposes such as computers and satellite communications appear to
 have become a driving force behind economic growth in the United States.
 Paradoxically, almost all previous econometric models suggest that the
 largely defense-oriented federal industrial R&D funding that helped create
 these technologies had no discernible effect on U.S. industrial
 productivity growth. This paper addresses this paradox by stressing that
 defense procurement as well as federal R&D expenditures were targeted to a
 few narrowly defined manufacturing sub-sectors that produced high tech
 weaponry. Analysis employing data from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity
 Database and the BEA' s Input Output tables then demonstrates that defense
 procurement policies did have significant effects on the productivity
 performance of disaggregated manufacturing industries because of a process
 of procurement-driven technological change. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 537-568 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Productivity, R&D, Procurement, Manufacturing, United States, Technological Change, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108405002 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108405002 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:6:p:537-568




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Richard Streeter 
Author-X-Name-First: Richard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Streeter 
Author-Name: Guy Hagen 
Author-X-Name-First: Guy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hagen 
Author-Name: Edward Patenaude 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward 
Author-X-Name-Last: Patenaude 
Author-Name: Dennis Killinger 
Author-X-Name-First: Dennis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Killinger 
Title: Preserving defense technologies: A strategy for economic conversion 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a model for converting legacy defense production
 facilities into private-sector economic resources. Specifically, this
 paper will examine as a case study the first successful conversion of a
 former U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons production installation,
 including reasons for its success, its costs and benefits, and lessons for
 public policy. It is envisioned that this model may be useful for
 mitigating local economic hardship resulting from defense
 &#x201c;downsizing&#x201d; and for privatizing production capacities
 critical for national defense. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 569-587 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Defense conversion, Economic development, Privatization, Technology transfer, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108405003 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108405003 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:12:y:2001:i:6:p:569-587




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: Country survey military expenditure in Cyprus 
Abstract:
  Cyprus, a small island state, gained independence from British colonial
 rule in 1960. For more that half its history as an independent state
 Cyprus has been under occupation following the 1974 Turkish invasion.
 Despite the fact that it has faced war, invasion and occupation, Cyprus
 has allocated a comparatively small proportion of its national income to
 defence. The average defence burden&#x2014;military expenditure as a share
 of GDP&#x2014;during 1964-98 was around 2.5%. However, as a result of a
 substantial shift in defence policy during the past decade or so, the
 defence burden during the 1990s has increased, averaging about 4% of GDP
 as Cyprus decided to implement an extensive military modernization program
 aiming to present a more credible military deterrence vis-a-vis Turkey.
 Empirical estimations of a demand function for Cypriot military
 expenditure suggest that it is positively affected by alliance spillins
 and external military threat. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 589-607 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 12 
Year: 2001 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Cyprus, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430710108405004 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710108405004 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Gerace 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gerace 
Title: US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectral Methods 
Abstract:
  There is not much consensus on what the relationship is between military
 expenditures and economic growth. One argument is that military
 expenditures have a positive impact on growth because they are used as a
 fiscal policy too. The other hypothesis is that military expenditures have
 a negative impact on growth. Neither argument is consistent with the
 results reported here. This paper conducts a spectral analysis on the
 growth rates of real military and non-military US government expenditures
 and GDP from 1951-1997. The results suggest that, while non-military
 spending does move counter-cyclically with real GDP growth rates, military
 spending does not. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-11 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Military Expenditures, Economic Growth, Spectral Analysis, Fiscal Policy, Keynesianism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210966 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210966 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Randa Alami 
Author-X-Name-First: Randa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Alami 
Title: Military Debt: Perspectives from the Experience of Arab Countries 
Abstract:
  This paper highlights the importance of military debts in Arab external
 debt profiles. By 1990, these debts ranged between $45-90
 billion--equivalent to 40% of their debts of that time--and were important
 in six of the nine severely indebted economies. The paper also sketches
 the broad features of the military credits market, which clearly affects
 civilian and total indebtedness. Hence, military spending and military
 debts are more intrinsic to debt formation than debt economics has
 admitted. Particularly in this region, explicit treatment of the military
 dimension is crucial for a more complete or accurate analysis of external
 indebtedness. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 13-30 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Arab Countries/Middle East, Military Spending, Military Debt, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210964 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210964 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wally Struys 
Author-X-Name-First: Wally 
Author-X-Name-Last: Struys 
Title: Country Survey XV: Defence Policy and Spending in Belgium 
Abstract:
  As far as defence in Belgium is concerned, the post-war era can be
 subdivided in two: the Cold War period, and the period from 1989, which
 also coincides with a profound political reorganisation of the country. In
 the following pages, a brief overview of the restructuring attempts of the
 armed forces since 1989, an evolution of the work force, an outline of the
 defence expenditures and a description of Belgium's defence industrial
 base (DIB) is presented. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 31-53 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Belgium, Defence, Armed Forces, Defence Spending, Defence Industry, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210962 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210962 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: H. Sonmez Atesoglu 
Author-X-Name-First: H. Sonmez 
Author-X-Name-Last: Atesoglu 
Title: Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States--Evidence from Cointegration Analysis 
Abstract:
  This paper provides new evidence on the question of the effects of
 defense spending on aggregate output in the United States. Earlier studies
 of this basic issue relied on traditional econometric techniques and the
 neoclassical production function theory. In this paper, recently developed
 cointegration methodology and modeling that is inspired by new
 macroeconomic theory is employed. The results from earlier studies
 concerning the effects of defense spending are mixed. The findings
 presented in this paper reveal that there is a quantitatively important
 and positive relation between defense spending and aggregate output in the
 United States. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 55-60 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Defense Spending, Aggregate Output, Cointegration Analysis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210963 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210963 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Stauvermann 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stauvermann 
Title: Why is there so much Peace? 
Abstract:
  In this paper we change the structure of the basic conflict model. This
 makes it possible to found an economic theory of war and peace. Apart from
 few exceptions there exist no peace equilibria in the related literature
 of conflict theory. The aim of the paper is to fill this gap, because most
 parts of the world live in peace. Further we show that negotiations are
 possible to avoid a war. The main result is that war breaks out only if
 the distribution of resources and/or the effectiveness of weapons is
 sufficiently unequal. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 61-75 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: International Conflict, Peace, Negotiations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210965 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210965 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Rider 
Author-X-Name-First: Robert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rider 
Title: Plunder or Trade? 
Abstract:
  Plunder and trade are theoretically and historically entwined in complex
 ways. This paper examines when rational players will choose one or both by
 employing a model of plunder within an evolutionary game theoretic
 framework. Evolutionary stable strategy equilibria are derived and the
 replicator dynamics are examined for simple two-by-two symmetric games.
 Not only are positive defense allocations necessary for trade, implying
 that all trade is of a contested nature, but the defense technology must
 also exhibit sufficient effectiveness relative to the plunder technology.
 A continuum of possible exchanges is proposed that is based on the
 effectiveness of enforcing property claims. For high levels of
 transactions costs, plunder dominates. As transactions costs decline,
 mutual trade emerges as one possible exchange mechanism. All market
 exchange entails some cost of enforcement; it is contested. Insufficient
 enforcement of property claims produces mutual plunder as the dominant
 exchange mechanism. Some implications are suggested for institutional
 evolution. C7 K4 N4 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 199-214 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210974 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210974 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:1:p:199-214




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 81-83 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210971 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210971 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:81-83




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: Survey and Review of the Defense Economics Literature on Greece and Turkey: What Have We Learned? 
Abstract:
  This article contains a critical review of the literature on the
 economics of military affairs in Greece and Turkey as of December 1999. In
 particular, I review (a) arms race models; (b) models of the demand for
 military expenditure; (c) models measuring the economic impact of military
 expenditure; and (d) literature and issues related to indigenous arms
 production. I conclude with a number of summary lessons and observations
 of how future research might improve upon the existing body of work. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 85-107 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Greece, Turkey, Review, Defense Economics, Peace Economics, Conflict, Country Studies, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210969 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210969 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:85-107




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emmanuel Athanassiou 
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Athanassiou 
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Stavros Zografakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Stavros 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zografakis 
Title: The Effects of Defence Spending Reductions: A CGE Estimation of the Foregone Peace Dividend in the Case of Greece 
Abstract:
  With the collapse of bipolarity and the end of the East-West armaments
 race, defence budgets have shrunk and military expenditures across many
 countries have fallen, opening-up the prospect of potential beneficial
 economic spin-offs. In the case of Greece, a country with a higher than
 average defence burden, military spending has not exhibited similar
 downward trends as it has done in other members of NATO and the European
 Union. The paper, using a Computable General Equilibrium model, estimates
 through simulations the effects on the Greek economy had reductions in
 current defence spending been equal to the NATO average. The results from
 the CGE estimations suggest that a shift of expenditure from defence into
 non-defence public spending would have an appreciable beneficial impact. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 109-119 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Greece, Defence Spending, Peace Dividend, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210972 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210972 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:109-119




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Title: The Demand for Turkish Defence Expenditure 
Abstract:
  Although a number of studies concerning Turkish defence-growth relation
 have been published in recent years, little attention is given the demand
 for Turkish defence expenditure. This is an important issue for
 understanding which variables contribute to the determination of the
 demand for military expenditure. However, it is difficult to develop a
 general theory or a standard empirical approach for the determination of
 the demand military expenditure. This study models and estimates the
 demand for Turkish defence expenditure for the period 1951-1998 using
 autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration (ARDL) following
 the methodology outlined in Pesaran and Shin (1999). This procedure can be
 applied regardless of the stationary properties of the variables in the
 sample and allows for inferences on long-run estimates, which is not
 possible under alternative cointegration procedures. The findings suggest
 that Turkish defence spending is determined by NATO's defence spending,
 Greece's defence spending and some security considerations. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 121-128 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Ardl Models, Cointegration, Model Selection, Turkey, Unit Root Tests, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210973 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210973 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:121-128




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Onur Ozsoy 
Author-X-Name-First: Onur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozsoy 
Title: Budgetary Trade-Offs Between Defense, Education and Health Expenditures: The Case of Turkey 
Abstract:
  The main objective of this paper is to evaluate empirically the existence
 of a budgetary trade-off between military, education and health
 expenditures in Turkey for the time period 1925-1998. Development
 economists, peace and defense economists and political economists have
 extensively investigated the existence of a trade-off between military,
 education and health spending since the 1970s. However, the literature
 review reveals that it is hard to establish a general theory of budgetary
 trade-off between military, education and health spending and make this
 applicable for all cases. This is mostly due to economic, social,
 political, and historical differences among the countries Moreover, it is
 likely that different research techniques, different time periods analyzed
 may produce different results. As a result of this, researchers have found
 a variety of outcomes regarding the trade-off between defense-education
 and health expenditures. This study presents a brief literature review
 within the framework of trade-offs between defense-education and health
 expenditures and also concentrates on theoretical model development. The
 discussion will center on developing a multi-variable single equation
 regression model and presenting estimable forms of equations. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 129-136 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Turkey, Defense Expenditure, Health Expenditure, Educational Expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210968 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210968 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:129-136




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Kleanthis Sirakoulis 
Author-X-Name-First: Kleanthis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sirakoulis 
Title: Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model 
Abstract:
  The paper draws on the demand for arms imports model of Levine and Smith
 (1995, 1997) using stochastic processes of the birth-death type in steady
 state. It assumes two antagonistic regional players engaged in an
 armaments race satisfying their demand for military hardware through
 imports from the international market. The paper examines the effects that
 arms imports have on the military balance between the two recipient
 countries. It constructs a state space of possible outcomes in terms of
 the military balance/imbalance between the two countries involved. A new
 variable is introduced which tries to encapsulate the absolute difference
 in their respective security functions at any moment in time. This
 variable affects the transition from one state of affairs to the other. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 137-143 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Arms Race, Arms Imports, Greece-Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210970 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210970 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:137-143




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher Davis 
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Davis 
Title: Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001 
Abstract:
  The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex
 and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its
 centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status
 and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to
 attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the
 effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions
 experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system.
 The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the
 civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the
 defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during
 perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period,
 the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its
 low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid
 politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed
 forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of
 military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless,
 the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant
 stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal.
 The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence
 sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to
 revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource
 constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade
 weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military
 power in Eurasia. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 145-177 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Soviet Union, Ussr, Russia, Defence Economics, Defence Sector, Military-industrial Complex, Defence Expenditure, Defence Budget, Defence Burden, Arms Race, Armed Forces, Logistics, Defence Industry, Military Rdt&E, Arms Trade, National Security, Conversion, Disarmament, Economic Systems, Defence Planning, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210978 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210978 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:145-177




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ching-chong Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Ching-chong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Author-Name: Jhy-yuan Shieh 
Author-X-Name-First: Jhy-yuan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shieh 
Author-Name: Wen-Ya Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Wen-Ya 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Title: Endogenous Growth and Defense Expenditures: A New Explanation of the Benoit Hypothesis 
Abstract:
  This paper develops an endogenous growth model to examine the linkage
 between military expenditures and economic growth. We adopt the modeling
 strategy where both the supply side and the demand side effects of
 national defense are taken into considerations. Our result finds that a
 rise in military spending tends to stimulate the sustained growth rate,
 confirming Benoit's famous empirical findings. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 179-186 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Benoit Hypothesis, Endogenous Growth, Defense Expenditures, Elasticity Of Intertemporal Substitution, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210975 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210975 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:179-186




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yousif Khalifa Al-Yousif 
Author-X-Name-First: Yousif Khalifa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Yousif 
Title: Defense Spending and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence from the Arab Gulf Region 
Abstract:
  The present paper investigates the causal relationship between defense
 spending and economic growth in six Gulf countries for the period
 1975-1998. I use Granger-causality test within a multivariate
 error-correction framework to explore the existence and direction of
 causality between these two variables. The empirical results indicate that
 neither growth nor defense can be considered exogenous and that the
 relationship between them cannot be generalized across countries. Two
 implications can be derived from these findings. One is the need for more
 studies, especially from developing countries, using time-series data. The
 other is that decisions on defense spending should be based on each
 country's socio-economic circumstances. Given the small sample size,
 however, caution is advised in considering the above results and their
 implications as final. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 187-197 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Defense Spending, Economic Growth, Macro-economics, Defense Economics, Granger Causality, Theoretical Models, Empirical Models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210977 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210977 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:187-197




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicholas Sambanis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sambanis 
Title: A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War 
Abstract:
  This paper reviews the booming literature on civil war. It presents the
 major theoretical perspectives and key empirical results on the
 determinants of civil war. The paper identifies controversies in the field
 and suggests ways to improve and organize our research. The conclusion
 outlines possible future directions for research on civil wars. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 215-243 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Civil War, Poverty, Democracy, Ethnicity, Insurgency, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690210976 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690210976 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:3:p:215-243




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Mcguire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mcguire 
Title: Property distribution and configurations of sovereign states: A rational economic model 
Abstract:
  A nation's wealth is both an object of conquest to covetous aggressors
 and a resource to its owners for self defense. To maintain autonomy every
 country must mount a defense which either makes its capture (1) more
 expensive than any aggressor can afford, or (2) more expensive than it is
 worth to aggressors. Whether this condition can be satisfied for all
 countries simultaneously depends as shown in this paper on relative
 efficacy of military offense versus defense, the aggregate of wealth among
 nations and its distribution, and the benefits a conqueror may obtain from
 conquest, including the duration of these benefits. The paper shows how
 these factors fit together to determine the sustainability and stability
 of the international distribution of property as embodied in the
 configuration of sovereign states. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 251-270 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Sovereignty, Property Rights, Economics Of War/peace, Foundations Of Conflict Analysis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212358 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212358 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:251-270




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Arthur Grimes 
Author-X-Name-First: Arthur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Grimes 
Author-Name: James Rolfe 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rolfe 
Title: Optimal defence structure for a small country 
Abstract:
  Small countries may not be able to afford all force elements (army, navy,
 air-force) operated by larger countries and certainly cannot afford all
 sub-elements (aircraft carriers, submarines, etc). This paper provides a
 framework for a small country to analyse its force structure, examining
 the influence of objectives, international co-operation, funding and
 technological constraints, and uncertainty. We analyse when a small
 country may choose to retain a balanced structure (with each force
 element) and when it may choose to drop one or more elements. The issues
 are illustrated with the decision by the New Zealand government over
 whether to retain a strike aircraft capacity. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 271-286 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Defence Expenditure, Defence Force Structure, Balanced Forces, New Zealand Defence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212353 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212353 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:271-286




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Alexander 
Author-X-Name-First: J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Alexander 
Author-Name: Alan King 
Author-X-Name-First: Alan 
Author-X-Name-Last: King 
Author-Name: W. Robert 
Author-X-Name-First: W. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Robert 
Title: Country survey XVII: New zealand's defence policy 
Abstract:
  New Zealand's current defence strategy, first expressed in NZ Government
 (1991), is one of "self-reliance in partnership". We outline the country's
 defence policy in historical context, examine its current defence
 expenditure and capabilities, and document the genesis of recent major
 changes in security policy. We pay particular attention to the role of
 explicit economic analysis and advice in the formation of these policy
 changes. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 287-309 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: New Zealand, Security Policy, Defence Spending, Defence Capabilities, Allies, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212355 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212355 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:287-309




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: Small countries and the consolidation of the European defence industry: Portugal as a case study 
Abstract:
  In this paper, we analyse the dilemma confronted by a small country in
 relation to the consolidation taking place in the European defence
 industry. Assuming that Portugal must maintain its armed forces, and must
 retain a minor defence industry, this industry must be competitive in
 small niches. Competitiveness must be based on, amongst other elements,
 technical efficiency and technological change. We investigate this issue,
 first characterizing the threats faced by the Portuguese defence industry,
 then investigating its present efficiency and finally, we discuss its role
 in the consolidation of the European Industry. We conclude that the
 Portuguese defence industry has no alternative but to opt for innovation
 and European partnership, which are complementary policies, but which
 require the active involvement of the stakeholder (i.e. the Government) in
 effecting these fundamental shifts in direction and emphasis. If this
 strategy does not succeed, the defence policy should be based on offsets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-319 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Small Country, Defence Industry, Efficiency, Malmquist Index, European Consolidation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212359 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212359 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:311-319




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologou 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologou 
Title: Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests 
Abstract:
  The Greek-Turkish rivalry has attracted considerable attention in the
 defence economics literature. Given the tense bilateral relations between
 the two countries, a number of studies have addressed the issue of a
 Greek-Turkish arms race. The empirical results that have been reported
 vary depending on the methodology used and time period covered.
 Unidirectional, bi-directional as well as no causality between Greek and
 Turkish military expenditures have been reported. This paper contributes
 to the Greek-Turkish arms race literature using the causality methodology
 employed by Hendry and Ericsson (1991) and Davidson et al. (1978). The
 time period covered is 1950-1999 and the results reported here appear to
 suggest the presence of bi-directional causality and therefore an
 armaments race between Greece and Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 321-328 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Greece, Turkey, Arms Race, Causality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212357 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212357 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:321-328




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. S. Andreou 
Author-X-Name-First: A. S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreou 
Author-Name: K. E. Parsopoulos 
Author-X-Name-First: K. E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Parsopoulos 
Author-Name: M. N. Vrahatis 
Author-X-Name-First: M. N. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vrahatis 
Author-Name: G. A. Zombanakis 
Author-X-Name-First: G. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakis 
Title: Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race 
Abstract:
  The aim of this paper is to indicate the extent to which the arms race
 against Turkey, in which Greece and Cyprus have been entangled, imposes a
 defence expenditure burden that is tough for the two allies to bear. To do
 so we have resorted to evaluating the optimal military expenditure for the
 two countries, allied in the context of the Integrated Defence Doctrine,
 which is compatible with the constraints imposed by the resources of their
 economies. All experiments and scenarios examined lead to the conclusion
 that the current defence burden of the two allies seems to be driving
 their economies beyond capacity limits. The fact remains, however, that
 under the circumstances, a one-sided disarmament policy like the one
 currently followed by Greece, is a risky choice given that the long-term
 armament programmes pursued by Turkey, whose role in this arms race has
 been proven as leading, leave very small room to the Greek and Cypriot
 sides to reduce their own defence expenditure. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 329-347 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Optimal Control, Defence Expenditure, Arms Race, Relative Military Security, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690212360 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690212360 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:4:p:329-347




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: Military expenditure and development: Crowding-out and the effects of military tension and conflict 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 351-352 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213508 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213508 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:351-352




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the convergence between countries in relation to the
 catch-up hypothesis concerning the level of total productivity. The
 catch-up hypothesis claims that poor countries tend to grow faster than
 rich countries through the international diffusion of knowledge and
 technology. We test this hypothesis for the Balkan countries and
 investigate the effect of military expenditure in the region on
 productivity growth. The aim is to investigate empirically whether
 productivity growth has been greater in countries with lower military
 expenditure, in line with theory. The results obtained show that, overall,
 improvements in technological change co-exist with deteriorating technical
 efficiency change and that there is a negative correlation between
 military expenditure and either total productivity growth and
 technological change, and a positive, but statistically insignificant,
 relationship with technical efficiency change. We conclude that economic
 growth is the key to regional development and that too great a diversion
 of resources to military commitments can lead to overstretch. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 353-363 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Balkan Countries, Productivity Growth, Military Expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213510 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213510 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:353-363




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eduardo Morales-Ramos 
Author-X-Name-First: Eduardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Morales-Ramos 
Title: Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis 
Abstract:
  The impact of defence expenditure on the economy has been widely studied
 through different types of models. However, the results from these studies
 have not reached definitive conclusions, and have left a gap in the
 analysis of the impact of defence R&D expenditure at the economy level.
 Defence R&D has specific characteristics, which lead to market failures:
 public good, high risk and uncertainty, national security. Also, defence
 R&D creates two types of externalities: negative (crowding-out), and
 positive (spin-off). Crowding-out is the major economic debate about
 defence R&D. This paper analyses the crowding-out hypothesis by applying
 three types of models for the UK case: supply, demand, and demand-supply
 models. From these three models the most reliable is chosen and applied to
 the individual cases of France, Germany, Japan and USA. The paper also
 reports the results for the pooled data of these five countries, and for
 four error component models. The results from estimating such models shed
 light on the defence R&D crowding-out hypothesis. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 365-383 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Crowding-out, Defence R&D Spending, Growth, Investment, Demand Models, Supply Model, Demand-supply Models, Error Component Models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213507 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213507 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:365-383




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gulay Gunluk-Senesen 
Author-X-Name-First: Gulay 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gunluk-Senesen 
Title: Budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in Turkey 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the budgetary trade-off structure of security
 (defence+internal security) expenditures in Turkey for the period
 1983-1998. A modified version of Todaro's distributive share index of
 social welfare is used to quantify the impacts on the growth of primary
 budget expenditures of Security, Education, Health, General
 Administration, Infrastructure, and Social Services. We find that defence
 expenditures dominate overall security expenditures and are less affected
 in times of bottlenecks in the economy. A systematic pattern of negative
 budgetary trade-offs of security expenditures in terms of other components
 is not identified. We also analyse the expenditures of the Defence
 Industry Support Fund in an attempt to find the cost of the modernisation
 program to the economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 385-403 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Trade-off, Turkey, Budget, Defence Expenditures, Defence Industry Support Fund, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213509 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213509 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:385-403




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadir Ocal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ocal 
Title: Asymmetric effects of military expenditure between Turkey and Greece 
Abstract:
  One of the major topics of the defense economics literature regarding
 Turkey and Greece has been the empirical modeling of various aspects of
 arms racing. However, despite a considerable amount of research, little
 evidence has been found in favor of an arms race between the two
 countries. In the literature, this failure of applied studies has been
 attributed, among other reasons, to the sensitivity of the results to the
 underlying model specification, to small sample size, and to measurement
 issues. This study uses novel, nonlinear, models to investigate the
 possible relationship between the military expenditures of the two
 countries. It is assumed that if there are two regimes characterizing the
 low (or negative) and high-growth military expenditure periods, the growth
 rates of one country's military expenditure may have distinct effects on
 the military expenditure regimes of the other country or may contribute to
 the change from one regime to another. The nonlinear models examined are
 Smooth Transition Regression models (STRs). Strong evidence of
 nonlinearity for Greece is found, with asymmetry relating to two distinct
 regimes through lagged Turkish military expenditure changes. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 405-416 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Arms Race, Smooth Transition Models, Forecasting, Turkey, Greece, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213511 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213511 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:405-416




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emmanuel Athanassiou 
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Athanassiou 
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: Modeling the effects of military tension on foreign trade: Some preliminary empirical findings from the Greek-Turkish rivalry 
Abstract:
  In this paper we examine the effects of irreversibility on foreign trade
 in the case where there are two sources of uncertainty. The two sources
 considered in this paper are uncertainty arising from business risk and
 uncertainty arising from military tension. The resulting insights are then
 used to model the import markets of Greece and Turkey. These models are
 then empirically estimated, in order to ascertain, on the one hand whether
 there is evidence that irreversibility is indeed a factor on the supply
 side of these markets, and on the other hand, the direction of the
 incidence of military tension on foreign trade. An index of military
 tension is used for the two countries, based on the number of airspace
 violations by Turkish military aircraft of Greek airspace. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 417-427 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Military Tension, Foreign Trade, Greece-Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690213506 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690213506 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:417-427




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Author-Name: H&#xe5;vard Hegre 
Author-X-Name-First: H&#xe5;vard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hegre 
Title: Economic analysis of civil wars 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 429-433 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690214333 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690214333 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:429-433




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Collier 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Collier 
Author-Name: Anke Hoeffler 
Author-X-Name-First: Anke 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hoeffler 
Title: AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict 
Abstract:
  We analyze theoretically and empirically the effects of economic policy
 and the receipt of foreign aid on the risk of civil war. We find that aid
 and policy do not have direct effects upon conflict risk. However, both
 directly affect the growth rate and the extent of dependence upon primary
 commodity exports, and these in turn affect the risk of conflict.
 Simulating the effect of a package of policy reform and increased aid on
 the average aid recipient country, we find that after five years the risk
 of conflict is reduced by nearly 30%. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 435-450 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Civil Wars, Foreign Aid, Economic Growth, Primary Commodity Exports, Zaire, Policy Reform, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690214335 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690214335 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:435-450




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Murdoch 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Murdoch 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison 
Abstract:
  The paper examines the impact of civil wars on income per-capita growth
 at home and in neighbors for four regional groupings of countries: Africa,
 Asia, Latin America, and a pooled Asian and Latin American sample. Both
 macroeconomic and civil-war influences on growth differ by region. With
 the use of a distance measure, we demonstrate that the spatial reach from
 the negative consequences of a civil war are region and time period
 specific. Generally, there was less dispersion in Africa than in Asia and
 Latin America. Moreover, Africa demonstrates a greater ability to recover
 from the adverse effects of civil wars than the other regions tested. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 451-464 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Civil Wars, Economic Growth, Spatial Econometrics, Africa, Asia, Latin America, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690214336 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690214336 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:451-464




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marta Reynal-Querol 
Author-X-Name-First: Marta 
Author-X-Name-Last: Reynal-Querol 
Title: Political systems, stability and civil wars 
Abstract:
  In this paper we analyze theoretically and empirically the stability of
 the different political systems; that is, their ability to prevent
 conflict. According to our model, the proportional system has a lower
 probability of group rebellion than the majoritarian system. In the
 empirical part we test the role of political systems in preventing civil
 wars. We show that democracy by itself does not play an important
 explanatory role, while the specific type of political
 system-majoritarian, presidential and proportional-does. The rationale of
 this result is that different political systems entail different
 opportunity costs of rebellion. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 465-483 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Democracy, Political Systems, Majoritarian, Proportional And Presidential, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690214332 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690214332 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:465-483




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Halvor Mehlum 
Author-X-Name-First: Halvor 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehlum 
Author-Name: Karl Moene 
Author-X-Name-First: Karl 
Author-X-Name-Last: Moene 
Title: Battlefields and marketplaces 
Abstract:
  Divided societies in the developing world experience wasteful struggles
 for power. We study the relationship between political stability and
 resources wasted in the struggle within a model of competitive power
 contests. The model of power contests is similar in structure to models
 describing oligopolistic market competition. This analogy helps us in
 deriving results that are new to the conflict literature. We show, for
 example, that the Herfindahl-Hirschman index can be interpreted as a
 measure of power concentration and that a peace treaty between fighting
 groups has a parallel in tacit collusion between firms in a market. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 485-496 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 13 
Year: 2002 
Keywords: Violent Conflicts, Rent-seeking Games, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, Oligopolistic Competition, Political Instability, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690214334 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690214334 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:6:p:485-496




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Trish Kelly 
Author-X-Name-First: Trish 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kelly 
Author-Name: Meenakshi Rishi 
Author-X-Name-First: Meenakshi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rishi 
Title: An empirical study of the spin-off effects of military spending 
Abstract:
  The article explores the spin-off effect controversy surrounding the role
 of military spending in economic development by investigating its impact
 on output in six industries linked to the military. The article's
 econometric investigation does not support the case for spin-off effects.
 The results suggest that military spending's direct impact on output in
 each industry is negative or insignificant depending on whether
 adjustments for trade in armaments are made. The results also fail to
 substantiate physical and human capital spin-off effects. Based on these
 results, the article concludes that the case for spin-off effects has been
 exaggerated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-17 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Spending, Spin-off Effects, Industry-level Impact, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302938 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302938 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:1-17




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Defence specific inflation: A Canadian perspective 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a brief description of the Canadian Department of
 National Defence (DND) price trend model and the associated chained
 Laspeyres defence specific price index. The paper also discusses the
 theoretical justification for and against defence specific inflation (DSI)
 and presents empirical evidence that explains DSI. Comparative analysis is
 also conducted with other popular price indices such as the Gross Domestic
 Product (GDP) deflator and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 19-36 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Inflation, Dnd Contracts, Laspeyres Index, Chained Index, Firm/Fixed Price Contracts, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302935 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302935 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:19-36




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cassady Craft 
Author-X-Name-First: Cassady 
Author-X-Name-Last: Craft 
Author-Name: Joseph Smaldone 
Author-X-Name-First: Joseph 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smaldone 
Title: Arms imports in sub-saharan Africa: Predicting conflict involvement 
Abstract:
  This paper explores relationships between the arms trade and conflict in
 sub-Saharan Africa from 1967 to 1997. We present a bivariate logistic
 regression model to explain the variance in domestic and international
 conflict incidence in the region. Our models indicate that the
 relationship between weapons transfers and war is stronger in sub-Saharan
 Africa than the literature on the region indicates, and should be included
 as an integral element in more comprehensive models of conflict. The
 findings have clear implications for further research and arms transfer
 policy toward regions of conflict. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 37-49 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Arms Trade, Weapons Trade, Civil War, Interstate War, Political Violence, Armed Conflict, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302933 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302933 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:37-49




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hannah Galvin 
Author-X-Name-First: Hannah 
Author-X-Name-Last: Galvin 
Title: The impact of defence spending on the economic growth of developing countries: A cross-section study 
Abstract:
  This study analyses the defence-growth relationship for 64 developing
 economies using cross-section data. It analyses the impact of military
 expenditure on economic growth with a demand and supply side model using
 simultaneous equation methodologies (2SLS and 3SLS). The empirical
 results, bearing in mind the possible inaccuracies of the data set and
 given the chosen model, suggest that defence spending has a negative
 impact on both the rate of economic growth and the savings-income ratio.
 Yet it also indicates that the effect is greater for middle-income nations
 which may have less to gain from defence sector spill-overs. The results
 also indicate that strategic factors, as much as economic constraints,
 determine defence spending in developing countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 51-59 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Defence-growth Relationship, Crowding-out, Spill-overs, Determinants Of Defence Expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302932 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302932 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:51-59




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jun Sik Bae 
Author-X-Name-First: Jun Sik 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bae 
Title: Country survey XVIII: The two Koreas' defence economy 
Abstract:
  This country survey briefly outlines the defence and economic background
 of the two Koreas and the security environment in the Korean Peninsula. It
 shows how defence spending to deter a potential North Korean attack has
 crowded-out the South Korean civilian economy and considers the
 possibility of arms control between the two adversaries. The military
 capabilities of both countries are described and empirical results are
 presented on the arms race between the two Koreas since 1963 using a
 Richardson action-reaction model. The development of South Korean defence
 industries and the problems of those industries are also examined, as well
 as the future prospects for inter-Korean relations and South Korea's
 defence policy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 61-83 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: South Korea, North Korea, Arms Race, Defence Spending, Defence Industry, Economic Growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302934 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302934 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:61-83




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Greenberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Greenberg 
Author-Name: Michael Frisch 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Frisch 
Author-Name: Tyler Miller 
Author-X-Name-First: Tyler 
Author-X-Name-Last: Miller 
Author-Name: David Lewis 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis 
Title: Facing an uncertain economic future: Environmental management spending and rural regions surrounding the U.S. DOE's nuclear weapons facilities 
Abstract:
  Using an economic simulation model, the study finds that the proposed
 expenditure by the U.S. Department of Energy of billions of dollars to
 manage the nuclear weapons environmental legacy followed by sharp
 reductions in expenditures would cause economic spikes and then
 depressions in three rural regions (Hanford in Washington, INEEL in Idaho,
 and SRS in South Carolina). The economies of larger and growing
 metropolitan regions with DOE sites will not be noticeably impacted.
 Simulations suggest pronounced impacts on income, jobs, and gross regional
 product in the three dependent rural regions. Policy options are reviewed
 to address the economic stresses of these rural dependent regions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 85-97 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: United States, Nuclear Weapon Sites, Economic Impact, Environmental Management, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302937 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302937 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:85-97




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Almquist 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Almquist 
Title: Book review 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 99-101 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302936 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302936 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:1:p:99-101




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Author-Name: Ju&#xa8;lide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Ju&#xa8;lide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Title: Introduction: Symposium on defence economics 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-106 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302918 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302918 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:2:p:105-106




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: The future of European defence policy: An economic perspective 
Abstract:
  European defence policy has been dominated by politics. This paper shows
 how economic principles can be used to derive guidelines for the
 formulation of European defence policy. The inefficiencies of the EU's
 existing defence arrangements are identified. It is shown that there is
 scope for efficiency improvements in the EU's Armed Forces and its defence
 industries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 107-115 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Eu Defence Markets, Efficiency, Armed Forces, Europe's Defence Industries, Industrial Policy Options, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302921 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302921 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:2:p:107-115




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Thanasis Maniatis 
Author-X-Name-First: Thanasis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Maniatis 
Title: Military expenditure and the profit rate in Greece 
Abstract:
  This paper examines the effect of military expenditure on the
 profitability of the Greek economy for the 1962-1994 period. In the
 theoretical debate on the role of military expenditures they have
 alternatively been viewed either as a "burden on growth" (i.e. an
 unproductive drain of resources) or as a stimulating factor for demand,
 profitability and economic performance. This distinction is reflected in
 the Marxist tradition as well where in different theories of crisis,
 military expenditures have been treated either as an unproductive burden
 or as a savior of the capitalist system, mainly through their effect on
 the rate of profit. Our empirical tests for the relationship between
 military expenditure, the general Marxian rate of profit and the net rate
 of profit indicate that those expenditures have had a contradictory effect
 on profitability, stimulating effective demand in the short run, but
 affecting negatively both rates of profit over the long run. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 117-127 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, Greece, Profit Rate, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302920 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302920 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:2:p:117-127




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: Military expenditure and employment in Turkey 
Abstract:
  Even though the military expenditure - economic growth relationship has
 been intensively investigated in the defence economics literature, few
 studies have been devoted to investigate the nature of military
 expenditure related employment in armed forces, civil service and in the
 industries that supply defence material. In the literature, there is no
 general agreement concerning the effects of military expenditure on
 employment. Military spending would increase employment, as vast numbers
 of workers are employed either directly by military-related operations or
 in a variety of service or supporting roles, or spending on the armed
 forces may generate increased demand in the economy. However, military
 expenditure devoted to high-technology labour saving weapon systems can be
 expected to increase unemployment. The purpose of this study is to assess
 the importance of military expenditure, among other things, in determining
 the level of employment in Turkey. Employment equation is specified using
 a CES production function and modelled employing ARDL technique. Our
 findings indicate that military expenditure negatively effects employment
 in Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 129-139 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, Employment, Real Wages, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302919 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302919 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:2:p:129-139




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadir Ocal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ocal 
Title: Are the military expenditures of India and Pakistan external determinants for each other: An empirical investigation 
Abstract:
  Empirical modeling of arms race between India and Pakistan has been a
 focus of interest in many studies. Nevertheless, the possibility of
 asymmetric dynamics between the variables under question seems to be
 ignored in these studies. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap of
 the earlier literature by examining possible asymmetric effects of
 military expenditures of India and Pakistan on each other. It is assumed
 that asymmetry is due to the existence of two distinct regimes
 characterizing the variable of interest, with regime shift being a
 function of either a past value of the dependent or an exogenous variable.
 Smooth transition class of nonlinear models is used in the study. The
 results for Pakistan indicate that India's military expenditure have more
 deep effects when the past military expenditure of Pakistan is high,
 implying asymmetric relationship between the two variables. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 141-149 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, Asymmetry, India And Pakistan, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302917 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302917 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:2:p:141-149




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 151-153 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000886 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000886 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:151-153




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hubert Van Tuyll 
Author-X-Name-First: Hubert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Van Tuyll 
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: Colonizing military history: A millennial view on the economics of war 
Abstract:
  We briefly illustrate the application of fundamental principles of
 economics to three episodes of military history for the second millennium
 AD. The periods, principles, and cases examined are, first, the European
 Middle Ages (1000-1300; opportunity cost; siege warfare); second, the
 Enlightenment and the Age of Battle (1618-1814; expected marginal
 costs/benefits; the decision to engage in battle); and third, the Cold War
 (1945-1989; substitution; France's nuclear force de frappe). 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 155-173 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Principles Of Economics, Military History, Siege Warfare, The Decision To Join Battle, Force De Frappe, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000877 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000877 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:155-173




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ralph Rotte 
Author-X-Name-First: Ralph 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rotte 
Author-Name: Christoph Schmidt 
Author-X-Name-First: Christoph 
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmidt 
Title: On the production of victory: Empirical determinants of battlefield success in modern war 
Abstract:
  Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper
 analyzes the empirical determinants of tactical success in modern war.
 Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military
 theory as production factors for combat success as an output of a military
 production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material and
 non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of
 superior force strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can
 be found in the recent literature, our estimation results indicate that
 numerical superiority has retained its crucial role for battlefield
 performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare,
 like leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important
 determinants of battle outcome despite technological progress in weapons. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 175-192 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Battlefield Success, Numerical Superiority, Leadership, Technical Progress, Military Technology, Military Production Function, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000868 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000868 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:175-192




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Title: Disarmament: A century of economic thought 
Abstract:
  This article delineates the history of how disarmament became a concept
 in economic thought and reviews the relevant writings of economists such
 as Veblen, Wicksell, Pareto, Schumpeter, Hilferding, Luxemburg, Lenin,
 Bukharin, Sombart, Keynes, Pigou, and Robbins, and of selected classical
 precursors (e.g., Smith, Ricardo, Malthus, List, Marx/Engels) as well as
 post-World War II writers (e.g., Richardson, Boulding, Hirshleifer).
 Particular attention is paid to how the "markets-as-peace" versus
 "capitalism-as-war" dichotomy developed, a dichotomy reflected in the
 contemporary debate on the relative merits or demerits of "globalization". 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 193-208 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: History Of Economic Thought, Armament, Disarmament, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000859 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000859 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:193-208




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Anderton 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton 
Title: Economic theorizing of conflict: Historical contributions, future possibilities 
Abstract:
  This article is organized around two major topics addressed by nineteenth
 and early twentieth century economists: (1) international economic
 relations and war and (2) economic activity in the shadow of conflict. My
 thesis is that an early and neglected reservoir of economic thought on
 peace and war exists and valuable perspectives on research in defense and
 peace economics can be gained by tapping into it. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 209-222 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Appropriation Possibilities, History Of Thought, Political Economy Of War And Peace, Preventive War, Trade And Conflict, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000840 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000840 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:209-222




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dietrich Fischer 
Author-X-Name-First: Dietrich 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fischer 
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: Twenty questions for peace economics: A research agenda 
Abstract:
  This paper constructs a matrix of the effects of the economy on military
 affairs and vice versa. Each cell of the matrix is filled with five
 research questions that either have not yet yielded conclusive answers, or
 only partial answers, or have barely been addressed at all in the
 literature. The paper thus constructs a useful research agenda for current
 and future students. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-236 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Peace Economics, Military Affairs, Research Agenda, Students, Hilbert, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269022000000831 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269022000000831 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:223-236




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Benno Torgler 
Author-X-Name-First: Benno 
Author-X-Name-Last: Torgler 
Title: Why do people go to war? 
Abstract:
  The intention of this paper is to analyse why people go to war, despite
 the, at first sight, divergence between benefits and costs. This paper
 provides a comparison of the willingness to go to war in different OECD
 countries using World Values Survey data. The empirical findings in the
 United States, Switzerland, Spain, Sweden and West Germany, using the
 willingness to fight as a dependent variable, indicate that such factors
 as pride, trust, and political ideology significantly influence
 individuals' willingness to go to war. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 261-280 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: War, Pride, Trust, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302929 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302929 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:261-280




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ian Bellany 
Author-X-Name-First: Ian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellany 
Title: Accounting for army recruitment: White and non-white soldiers and the British Army 
Abstract:
  A statistically based enquiry into recruitment into the British Army over
 the period 1987-2000 shows that two factors tend to induce young men to
 enlist: high levels of unemployment in the civilian sector and positive
 signals from the authorities that the Army is in a recruiting phase. The
 same result obtains, broadly speaking, in the context of both white and
 non-white (ethnic minority) recruitment, although the willingness of
 ethnic minority young men to contemplate an Army career is only about a
 quarter of that of white men, other things being equal. Correspondingly,
 the Army shows no signs of reaching the target agreed with the Commission
 for Racial Equality in 1997 for a 1 percentage point increase annually in
 the percentage of recruits being drawn from the ethnic minorities. This
 article has something to say about how the Army might improve its
 performance in this regard by offering more in-service training and
 education to otherwise underqualified recruits and concentrating
 recruitment effort on regions of high ethnic minority unemployment. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 281-292 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Uk, Army Recruitment, Economic Factors, Ethnic Balance, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302930 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302930 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:281-292




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. S. Andreou 
Author-X-Name-First: A. S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreou 
Author-Name: N. H. Mateou 
Author-X-Name-First: N. H. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mateou 
Author-Name: G. A. Zombanakis 
Author-X-Name-First: G. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakis 
Title: The Cyprus puzzle and the Greek - Turkish arms race: Forecasting developments using genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps 
Abstract:
  The scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement
 of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the
 Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the
 possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in
 turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses
 a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map algorithm to
 consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all
 sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the
 Turkish-Cypriot community and the international environment. All
 simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should
 not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit
 conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the
 Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and
 a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being
 justified. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 293-310 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Arms Race, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Genetic Algorithms, Hybrid Modelling, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302931 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302931 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:293-310




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Apostolos Rafailidis 
Author-X-Name-First: Apostolos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rafailidis 
Title: A survey of the Greek defence industry 
Abstract:
  Greece yearly allocates a substantial part of its national income to
 defence and its defence burden is the highest among EU and NATO members.
 To meet the demand for military hardware it relies almost exclusively on
 imports, ranking among the largest conventional arms importers in the
 world. Despite efforts to develop a domestic defence industry, indigenous
 production only covers a limited proportion of Greece's demand for
 military equipment. The majority of weapons, including sophisticated and
 technologically advanced systems, are imported from the major arms
 producers. This paper critically surveys the Greek defence industrial
 base, its structure and recent performance, and assesses its future
 options. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-324 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Defence Industry, Greece, Indigenous Arms Production, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302927 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302927 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:4:p:311-324




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Baldwin 
Author-X-Name-First: Laura 
Author-X-Name-Last: Baldwin 
Author-Name: Ellen Pint 
Author-X-Name-First: Ellen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pint 
Title: Economic analysis for defence decision-makers: Personnel, capital and alliances 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 327-328 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302925 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302925 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:327-328




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Author-Name: Curtis Simon 
Author-X-Name-First: Curtis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Simon 
Author-Name: Deborah Payne 
Author-X-Name-First: Deborah 
Author-X-Name-Last: Payne 
Title: The military recruiting productivity slowdown: The roles of resources, opportunity cost and the tastes of youth* 
Abstract:
  After a decade of successful recruiting, the US military began
 experiencing recruiting difficulties in the 1990s. Cyclical factors as
 well as trend factors may have played a role. This paper uses monthly data
 by state over the period 1989-1997 to estimate models of enlistment and
 evaluate the various explanations for the recruiting slowdown. Estimates
 of the impact of economic variables - relative military pay and
 unemployment - and recruiting resource variables - recruiters and
 advertising - are similar to those in previous studies. Two trend factors,
 rising college attendance and declining adult veteran population
 (influencers), are found to be important factors explaining the decline in
 enlistment. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 329-342 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Us Military, Recruitment, Opportunity Cost, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302923 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302923 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:329-342




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Richard Fullerton 
Author-X-Name-First: Richard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fullerton 
Title: An empirical assessment of us air force 
Abstract:
  The US Air Force is facing a record shortfall in pilots over the coming
 decade. Using personnel data on more than 10,000 Air Force pilots, this
 study examines the factors affecting the retention of pilots and assesses
 the effectiveness of the pilot bonus programme implemented by the Air
 Force to reduce attrition. Although surveys indicated sustained deployment
 rates were the leading cause of job dissatisfaction among Air Force
 pilots, the results of this study suggest economic factors had the largest
 impact on retention. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 343-355 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Pilots, Retention, Attrition, Military Personnel, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302922 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302922 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:343-355




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Victoria Greenfield 
Author-X-Name-First: Victoria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Greenfield 
Author-Name: David Persselin 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Persselin 
Title: How old is too old? An economic approach to replacing military aircraft 
Abstract:
  The US Air Force is asking when to replace its aging aircraft. We develop
 a framework to identify economically optimal replacement strategies that
 recognizes cost trade-offs and incorporates age effects. We also preview a
 stochastic methodology. We use the framework to identify an optimal
 strategy, defined by the replacement age, for a generic fleet and conduct
 a sensitivity analysis. Quantitative illustrations show that the range of
 strategies that provides close-to-optimal outcomes widens as the operating
 and support (O&S) cost growth rate decreases and the ratio of the
 acquisition price to the initial O&S cost increases. A wider range implies
 more decision-making leeway. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 357-368 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Aging Aircraft, Capital Investment, Optimal Replacement, Dynamic Programming, Military Equipment, Uncertainty, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302926 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302926 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:357-368




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: William Gates 
Author-X-Name-First: William 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gates 
Author-Name: Katsuaki Terasawa 
Author-X-Name-First: Katsuaki 
Author-X-Name-Last: Terasawa 
Title: Reconsidering publicness in alliance defence expenditures: NATO expansion and burden sharing 
Abstract:
  Over the past several decades, NATO allies have debated the relative
 burdens and benefits of NATO membership. Recently, this concern surfaced
 as members debated the magnitude and distribution of NATO expansion costs.
 This paper presents an economic model of defence alliances to identify the
 benefits and burdens of alliance membership. It suggests that defence
 expenditures provide public benefits if alliance members share common
 interests and mutual commitment; defence expenditures provide private
 benefits if countries lack common interests and mutual commitment. The
 model's results are used to discuss NATO's evolving roles and missions,
 NATO expansion and burden sharing across NATO members. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 369-383 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Burden Sharing, Defense Alliances, Nato, Public Goods, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690302924 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690302924 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:5:p:369-383




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Internal and external threats: Defence economic analysis 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 385-388 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085152 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085152 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:385-388




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kevin Siqueira 
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Siqueira 
Title: Conflict and third-party intervention 
Abstract:
  The paper looks at various scenarios of possible concern for intervening
 third parties when two factions are engaged in a conflict and act
 strategically against one another. A standard conflict model is used to
 determine appropriate intervention strategies in order to lower the
 overall level of conflict. Choosing a suitable strategy in such a setting,
 the third party must not only take into account the direct impact of its
 efforts but also the indirect impacts that result from the strategic
 interaction among the parties involved. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 389-400 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Conflict, Third-party Intervention, Strategic Interaction, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085161 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085161 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:389-400




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case 
Abstract:
  In this paper we evaluate what terrorism policies have worked best in
 handling the Spanish ETA terrorism using time series data from 1968 to
 2000. We consider the political, deterrence and economic effects, and
 conclude that their influence on terrorism incidents is mixed. A
 parsimonious model shows that the behaviour of different terrorism
 incidents is distinct and the lagged effect is a primary concern. A policy
 to manage this case is devised. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 401-412 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Eta, Terrorism, Unit Root, Structural Breaks, Var, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085170 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085170 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:401-412




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emmanuel Athanassiou 
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Athanassiou 
Title: The internal control constraint on compliance 
Abstract:
  Compliance to non-violent norms of collective behaviour may be contingent
 on the internal political stability of a state. If external developments
 give rise to economic incentives for agents to change their allegiance,
 increasing international tension may be a strategy employed in order to
 produce counter-incentives. A model based on the theory of investment
 under uncertainty is developed to examine this issue. Increases in tension
 will offset incentives created by growth opportunities to switch
 employment and hence political allegiance. The proportion of incentive
 rewards as compared to position-specific rents in an economy turns out to
 be crucial to the behaviour of the model. The model allows various policy
 options, such as embargoes to be analysed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 413-424 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Investment Uncertainty, Compliance, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085189 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085189 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vincent Medina 
Author-X-Name-First: Vincent 
Author-X-Name-Last: Medina 
Author-Name: Cyr-Denis Nidier 
Author-X-Name-First: Cyr-Denis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nidier 
Title: Pricing war within a real option framework 
Abstract:
  The aim of this paper is to provide insights on war spending using simple
 tools of financial calculus rather than developing a general theory.
 Combining Grossman and Han's theory of war finance with the empirical
 literature that displays a straightforward relationship between the real
 value of money and wartime military events, we advocate the use of the
 real option approach of war spending. Some calculations and an empirical
 example illustrate this approach. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 425-435 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: War, Options, Financial Calculus, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085198 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085198 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:425-435




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologou 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologou 
Title: Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure 
Abstract:
  By European Union and NATO standards, Greece consistently allocates
 substantial human and material resources to defence. The Greek defence
 burden (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been
 appreciably higher than the EU and NATO averages. The paper applies an
 autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to present cointegrated
 estimates of the demand function for Greek military expenditure, in which
 domestic political factors and external security determinants are
 incorporated. Our empirical findings suggest that Greek defence spending
 over the period 1960-1998 has been influenced by both external security
 concerns, namely Turkey, as well as changes in the domestic political
 scene. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 437-445 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Greece, Turkey, Demand For Military Expenditure, Political Determinants, External Security, Cointegration, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085206 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085206 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Author-Name: Nikolaos Mylonidis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mylonidis 
Title: The demand for military spending in the peripheral economies of Europe 
Abstract:
  Research on the factors that determine the level of military expenditure
 or military burden in countries, suggest that the dynamics of the
 determinants of military spending will be best understood by case studies
 of individual countries and studies of groups of relatively homogeneous
 countries. This paper provides a comparative analysis of three of the EU's
 peripheral economies - Greece, Portugal and Spain. A simple model based on
 a general theory of the demand for military spending provides the basis
 for an investigation of the relative importance of strategic and other
 social and economic factors for the three countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 447-460 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, Demand, Peripheral Economies, Time Series, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085215 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085215 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:447-460




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman 
Author-X-Name-First: Sam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman 
Title: The demand for military spending in developing countries: A dynamic panel analysis 
Abstract:
  Estimating demand functions for developing countries before and after the
 end of the Cold War, Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003) found little evidence
 of any change in the underlying relationship. One concern with their
 analysis was that the use of cross-section averages might have obscured
 important time series effects. This paper deals with this issue by
 analysing their data using static and dynamic panel data methods. This
 produces evidence of a change in relationship and suggests that the focus
 in the literature on cross-section analyses has indeed limited our
 understanding of important dynamic processes at work within countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 461-474 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 14 
Year: 2003 
Keywords: Military Spending, Developing Countries, Demand, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000085224 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000085224 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:14:y:2003:i:6:p:461-474




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin C. Mcguire * 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin C. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mcguire * 
Title: Economics of strategic defense and the global public good 
Abstract:
				 To deserve serious consideration, a
 strategic defense system must pass four tests: (1) it must be
 <italic>technically feasible</italic>. (2) It must preserve the
 <italic>war avoidance stability</italic> of mutual deterrence. (3) It
 cannot be so expensive that an adversary can cheaply overwhelm it. (4) It
 must be <italic>politically feasible</italic>. Historically, proposed
 strategic defenses have failed all four tests. But recent changes could
 make strategic defense prospectively viable if provided as a global public
 good. Rather than defense to advance individual national interests,
 universal missile defense to limit damage globally may pass all four
 tests. Historically, Mutual Assured Survival has been postulated as a
 substitute for MAD deterrence. But a global defensive system would mean we
 can have both mutual survival <italic>and</italic> mutual deterrence.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-25 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164469 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164469 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:1-25




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Toshihiro Ihori * 
Author-X-Name-First: Toshihiro 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ihori * 
Title: Arms race and economic growth 
Abstract:
				 This paper investigates the dynamic
 implications of an arms race between two rival countries. By incorporating
 defence spending into the conventional overlapping generations growth
 model, this paper explores long-run consequences for national security and
 economic growth. The security spending-GDP ratio increases with economic
 growth if defence technology has a fixed benefit. Although the
 steady-state defence spending is too much in terms of the static
 efficiency (or compared with private consumption), it may be too little if
 private saving is too little in terms of the dynamic efficiency. We also
 explore the unstable nature of an arms race when defence technology needs
 a fixed cost in the cases of "open war" and "closed war", or it is
 efficient and the initial capital stock is low in the case of "open war".
 In such cases, both countries could not grow in the long-run due to the
 arms race effect.		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 27-38 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164478 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164478 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:27-38




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: P. G. Pugh * 
Author-X-Name-First: P. G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pugh * 
Title: Concept costing for defence projects: the problem and its solution 
Abstract:
				 It is intrinsic to the nature of military
 competition that the unit acquisition costs of defence systems rise
 generation by generation. Traditional "bottom-up" methods of
 cost-estimating cannot meet the increasing demands for extensive studies
 of many options before commencing design and, while "top-down" estimating
 techniques are an improvement, in particular by reducing the time required
 for preparing estimates, they also are inadequate to meet current
 requirements. A new method has been devised, therefore, further developing
 "top-down" methods using Bayesian techniques to make best use of the
 available information, whether certain or uncertain, and its accuracy
 established by example.			
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 39-57 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164487 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164487 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:39-57




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura H. Baldwin * 
Author-X-Name-First: Laura H. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Baldwin * 
Author-Name: Glenn A. Gotz 
Author-X-Name-First: Glenn A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gotz 
Title: Transfer prices for air force component repair decisions 
Abstract:
				 In 1992, the Air Force implemented
 transfer pricing to manage repair decisions for most reparable components.
 This market-like system is intended to provide internal customers with
 incentives to make cost-effective repair decisions; namely, repair a
 broken part locally versus sending it to a repair depot. However, Air
 Force transfer prices diverge from marginal costs along a number of
 dimensions and, thereby, provide incentives to behave in ways that
 minimize private costs but increase system costs. An alternative structure
 that would cause customers to face the costs their decisions impose upon
 the support system is recommended.		      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 59-69 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164496 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164496 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:59-69




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jes&uacute;s Crespo Cuaresma 
Author-X-Name-First: Jes&uacute;s Crespo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cuaresma 
Author-Name: Gerhard Reitschuler 
Author-X-Name-First: Gerhard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Reitschuler 
Title: A non-linear defence-growth nexus? evidence from the US economy* 
Abstract:
				 The defense-growth nexus is investigated
 empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of
 defense spending on growth to be non-linear. Using recently developed
 econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a
 level-dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the
 positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively
 lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense
 spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 71-82 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164504 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164504 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:71-82




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eduardo Morales Ramos 
Author-X-Name-First: Eduardo Morales 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ramos 
Title: Country survey XIX: Mexico 
Abstract:
				 This paper presents a survey of Mexican
 military expenditure (ME), which assesses the role of ME in Mexican
 economic growth. After presenting a description of the armed forces,
 Mexican military policy and the Mexico-US military relationship, this
 paper outlines a demand-supply model to analyse the effects of ME on
 growth. The empirical results suggest interesting insights on the
 ME-growth relationship for the Mexican case. These results present
 evidence against the crowding-out hypothesis of ME on growth. For the
 Mexican case, ME produces a positive effect on growth. 		  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 83-99 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164513 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164513 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:83-99




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Hedvall * 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hedvall * 
Title: Change as a cost driver in defence procurement 
Abstract:
				 This paper discusses change transactions
 that occur in connection with the procurement of defence systems. The
 bases for the reasoning are the ideas of Miller and Vollman (1985) and
 Eppinger (2001). These researchers argue that unplanned flows of
 information lead to change transactions, causing significant overhead
 costs. According to this paper, change transactions in defence procurement
 could be caused by (a) the changes in technology taking place during the
 long lifetime of a defence system and (b) the structure and contents of
 the agreements between the defence agent (the procurer) and the defence
 industry (the supplier).			
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 101-108 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000164522 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269042000164522 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:1:p:101-108




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: G�lay G�nl�k-Senesen 						 
Author-X-Name-First: G�lay 
Author-X-Name-Last: G�nl�k-Senesen 						 
Title: Special Issue on Deficits, Debt and Defence 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 109-110 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2004.10055144 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2004.10055144 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:109-110




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Brzoska &dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brzoska &dagger; 
Title: The economics of arms imports after the end of the cold war 
Abstract:
				 Arms transfers are financed through a
 variety of means, including cash payments, barter trade, military aid and
 credit. The fiscal and economic effects of these various forms of arms
 transfer financing differ. Data on the flow of arms transfers, as provided
 by international sources on the arms transfers tell little about actual
 economic burdens. During the Cold War, military aid and credit financing
 had larger shares in overall funding of arms imports, particularly by
 developing countries. After the end of the Cold War, levels of military
 aid are sharply reduced. Little is known about credit funding. However,
 measured by an opportunity cost method, it seems that indebtedness due to
 arms imports did not increase as much during the 1990s as it had during
 the 1980s. This is another indicator that the arms trade has become more
 commercial, with customers needing to be able to pay for the imports. Less
 financially well-off customers have become less important for the
 producers of new weaponry, and instead import old weapons, or small arms.
 The differentiation according to financial criteria among customers in the
 military market increased in the 1990s.		   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 111-123 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110496 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110496 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:111-123




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne &dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne &dagger; 
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman &Dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Sam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman &Dagger; 
Author-Name: Aylin Soydan &#xA7; 
Author-X-Name-First: Aylin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Soydan &#xA7; 
Title: Military expenditure and debt in small industrialised economies: A panel analysis* 
Abstract:
				 This paper considers the impact of
 military spending on debt in a panel of 11 small industrialising economies
 using panel data methods. It provide estimates for fixed effects and
 random effects models and then moves on to consider dynamic models. The
 dynamics are found to be important and the results suggest that military
 burden does indeed have a positive impact on the share of external debt in
 GDP.			  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 125-132 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110504 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110504 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:125-132




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hasan Ersel 						 
Author-X-Name-First: Hasan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ersel 						 
Title: Optimal growth under military threat 
Abstract:
				 National Defense is a public good that
 requires resources for its production and its availability affects the
 economic behavior of private agents. A major policy problem of the
 government is to find an optimal allocation of resources between private
 use and national defense. It is shown that, in a simple optimal growth
 framework, a government's solution may not be the one that satisfies the
 military authority's objective. Attention is drawn to the need of
 cooperation between these two bodies and to the importance of the
 transparency of military expenditures in reaching a compromise that
 satisfies the public.			       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 133-143 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110513 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110513 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:133-143




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: G�lay G�nl�k-Senesen &dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: G�lay 
Author-X-Name-Last: G�nl�k-Senesen &dagger; 
Title: The role of defence on external indebtedness: An assessment of turkey 
Abstract:
				 Turkey has been undergoing a severe
 economic crisis recently. Despite its low standing in terms of basic
 economic and welfare indicators, Turkey has been leading in arms imports.
 The pressing issues of macroeconomic imbalances are budget deficits,
 current account deficits and external debt burden. Previous work on the
 trade-off between defence and growth and between defence and budget
 deficits concludes that the presence of such trade-offs is not confirmed.
 As budget deficits are financed through internal and external debt, this
 paper attempts to explore to what extent defence might be contributing to
 Turkey's current account deficits and external indebtedness since the
 1980s. Related data problems are also assessed.		  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 145-156 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110522 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110522 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:145-156




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jon Jonakin &dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Jon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jonakin &dagger; 
Author-Name: Mark Stephens &Dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stephens &Dagger; 
Title: The impact of structural adjustment on government spending and debt in Latin America 
Abstract:
				 In theory, the policies associated with
 adjustment and stabilization (AS) in Latin America were designed to
 contain wasteful government spending, enhance economic efficiency, and
 forestall recurrent debt and liquidity crises. In practice, AS succeeded
 in shrinking the size of government, but regional debt rose and debt
 servicing remained historically high. Government spending on physical
 infrastructure and subsidies fell sharply, while military spending in much
 of the region escalated. The changing magnitude and relative pattern of
 government expenditures corresponded with slower economic growth, higher
 unemployment, and continued liquidity crises.			      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 157-171 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110531 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110531 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:157-171




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne a,&dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paul Dunne a,&dagger; 
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman &Dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Sam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman &Dagger; 
Author-Name: Aylin Soydan &#xA7; 
Author-X-Name-First: Aylin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Soydan &#xA7; 
Title: Military expenditure and debt in South America* 
Abstract:
				 The debt crisis that struck South American
 countries in the 1980s led to severe recession and chronic economic
 problems. This paper considers one potentially important contributor to
 the growth of external debt, namely military spending. It considers the
 experience of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. It finds no evidence that
 military burden had any impact on the evolution of debt in Argentina and
 Brazil, but some evidence that military burden tended to increase debt in
 Chile. At the same time, Chile was the least affected of the three
 countries by acute financial crises resulting from the debt problems,
 although its relative levels of debt were as high or higher. This suggests
 that military burden may be important in determining debt in countries,
 but it is only of significance when it is not swamped by other
 macroeconomic and international factors.		       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 173-187 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110540 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110540 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:173-187




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias &dagger; 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias &dagger; 
Author-Name: George Manolas 
Author-X-Name-First: George 
Author-X-Name-Last: Manolas 
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologouc 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologouc 
Title: Military expenditure and government debt in greece: Some preliminary empirical findings* 
Abstract:
				 Greece has over the years allocated
 substantial human and material resources to defence. Its defence burden
 (i.e. military expenditure as a share of GDP) has invariably been
 substantially higher than the EU and NATO averages. Furthermore, during
 the post-bipolar period, when the defence budgets of most countries
 shrunk, Greek defence spending grew in real terms. This paper contributes
 to the existing literature on Greek defence spending and its effects by
 empirically estimating the impact of such expenditures on the country's
 fiscal situation during the period 1960-2001 something that has largely
 been ignored in the relevant literature. In particular, it focuses on the
 effects of military spending on government debt and its two components:
 internal and external debt. The empirical findings reported here suggest
 that central government debt and, in particular, external debt has been
 adversely influenced by military expenditure but also by the domestic
 political cycle.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 189-197 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110559 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110559 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:189-197




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: An empirical note on external debt and defence expenditures in Turkey 
Abstract:
				 It is often argued that defence
 expenditures, and in particular arms imports, are one of the main reasons
 for the recent increasing trend of Turkey's external debt. This paper
 empirically examines the relationships between Turkey's defence
 expenditure and external debt for the period 1979-2000 using Engle-Granger
 methodology. The findings show no clear evidence of defence-debt
 relationships for the period analysed. 		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 199-203 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110568 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1024269032000110568 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:199-203




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric Fredland 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fredland 
Title: Outsourcing Military Force: A Transactions Cost Perspective on the Role of Military Companies 
Abstract:
  Since the mid-1990s, the operations of private, for profit, military
 companies have been the subject of increased political and media scrutiny.
 Firms in this industry provide both combat and support functions to
 sovereign governments. In this paper, the current and potential future
 role of these companies is examined from the perspective of transactions
 cost economics. The transactions cost approach suggests that inevitable
 contractual hazards sharply limit the combat/combat support role of these
 companies, despite substantial potential cost savings, even for poor
 countries with weak governments. However, there is a growing market, even
 in developed countries, for private provision of training and support. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 205-219 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Private military companies, Transactions cost economics, Economics of national security, JEL Codes: H11, H56, L24, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690310001623410 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690310001623410 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:205-219




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Yetman 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yetman 
Title: SUICIDAL TERRORISM AND DISCRIMINATORY SCREENING: AN EFFICIENCY-EQUITY TRADE-OFF 
Abstract:
  Recent world events have cast a spotlight on what role, if any,
 discriminatory screening should play in aircraft security. This paper
 argues that if observable characteristics indicate differing probabilities
 of committing acts of terrorism, then following a non-discriminatory
 screening policy that fails to utilize those observable characteristics
 may be pareto-dominated by a screening policy that discriminates based on
 observable characteristics, even if agents are risk-neutral. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 221-230 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Terrorism, Discriminatory screening, Racial profiling, Pareto optimality, K43, L93, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000189264 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000189264 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:221-230




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Dolores Gadea 
Author-X-Name-First: M. Dolores 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gadea 
Author-Name: Eva Pardos 
Author-X-Name-First: Eva 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pardos 
Author-Name: Claudia Perez-Fornies 
Author-X-Name-First: Claudia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perez-Fornies 
Title: A LONG-RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960-99) 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the long-run demand for defence output through a
 homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999.
 We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either
 defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income,
 external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use
 time-series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We
 further consider individual country functions related to one another
 through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account
 explicitly the connections between members of an alliance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 231-249 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defence spending, Co-integration, Structural breaks, Common correlated effects, H56, C22, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000189273 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000189273 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:231-249




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Nato burden sharing revisited 
Abstract:
  This paper revisits the NATO burden sharing debate with particular
 emphasis on the use of non-parametric tests that measure the equality of
 relative benefits and burdens. While the joint product model makes a
 compelling case for the equality of benefits and burdens in NATO after
 1967 (as a consequence of a change in doctrine) the empirical validation
 of the model is not robust when using non-parametric methods. The lack of
 knowledge of each ally's utility function, as well as the fact that an
 ally may have different benefits other than the protection of its
 industrial base, exposed border and population to consider render the test
 less robust, as shown in this study. Sensitivity analysis such as the one
 employed in this paper should be a standard procedure when devising new
 proxy measures and tests for burden sharing in NATO. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 251-258 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Burden sharing, Joint product model, NATO, Public goods, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690320001608917 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690320001608917 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:251-258




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Kirkpatrick 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kirkpatrick 
Title: Trends in the costs of weapon systems and the consequences 
Abstract:
  This paper notes that the outcome of military operations is determined
 largely by the relative performance of the equipment deployed by rival
 forces. In this competitive situation, the performance and unit cost of
 key weapon systems tend to increase rapidly and persistently. Furthermore,
 developments in military technology are increasing the fixed/variable cost
 ratios of individual weapon projects and of national force structures.
 These two trends in weapon costs will, in coming decades, affect the
 development of national defence procurement strategies, of the globalized
 defence industry, and of geopolitical alliances. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 259-273 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Weapon cost growth, Defence procurement, Defence planning and policy, Network centric warfare, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000123203 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000123203 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:259-273




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thilo Klein 
Author-X-Name-First: Thilo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Klein 
Title: Military expenditure and economic growth: peru 1970-1996 
Abstract:
  The present study examines the effects of military expenditure on growth
 in Peru in the period from 1970 to 1996. By using a Deger-type
 Simultaneous Equations Model it is possible to break up the net effect
 into supply- and demand-side influences. The former consist of positive
 externalities of defence activities on the other sectors of the economy,
 while the latter can be described as crowding-out of civilian investment.
 Estimations find the supply-side effects to be insignificantly different
 from zero, while the crowding-out effect of defence spending is
 significant and substantial. It is thereby established that defence
 expenditure has a negative overall effect on economic growth in Peru.
 Although several caveats - including specification problems of the Deger
 model, the quality of the data used, a relatively small sample and the
 presence of autocorrelation in the estimations - must be considered, these
 results turn out to be quite robust with respect to estimation methods
 (3SLS, 2SLS, OLS) and slight modifications to the model. They are also
 consistent with previous empirical findings from other countries and cross
 sectional studies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 275-288 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, Economic Growth, Peru, Deger-type Simultaneous Equations Model, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/102426903200035101 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/102426903200035101 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:275-288




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erdal Karagol 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagol 
Author-Name: Serap Palaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Serap 
Author-X-Name-Last: Palaz 
Title: Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and
 causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth
 of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955-2000. The main
 conclusion is that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between
 GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test
 indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from
 defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a
 shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP
 decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial
 shock to defence expenditures. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 289-298 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defence, Cointegration, Turkey, JEL codes: C22; C32, H56, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690320001608908 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690320001608908 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:289-298




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Charis Naxakisb 
Author-X-Name-First: Charis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Naxakisb 
Author-Name: Leonidas Zarangasb 
Author-X-Name-First: Leonidas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zarangasb 
Title: Defence Spending and Growth in Cyprus: A Causal Analysis  
Abstract:
  The causal relationship between economic growth and defence spending has
 attracted considerable attention and has been the subject of many
 empirical studies. Hoping to contribute to the existing pool of
 literature, this paper examines the relationship between military
 expenditure and growth in the case of Cyprus, a small island economy, for
 the period 1964-99. The findings reported suggest the presence of
 bi-directional instantaneous causality between defence spending and
 economic growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 299-307 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Cyprus, Military expenditure, Causality, Cointegration, Economic growth, Structural breaks, JEL Code: H56, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000166864 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000166864 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:3:p:299-307




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Minoru Okamura 
Author-X-Name-First: Minoru 
Author-X-Name-Last: Okamura 
Title: Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States' case 
Abstract:
  Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using
 a dynamic cost-function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates
 the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget
 saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure
 without output data for non-market goods that are normally unavailable.
 Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize
 cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are
 larger in disarmament than in military build-up; (iii) due to the
 adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from
 disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence
 budget. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 309-330 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Disarmament, Defence production function, Dynamic cost-function model, Non-market goods, Technical change, Defence budget savings, JEL codes: D24, H56, H61, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110559 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000110559 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:4:p:309-330




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vasilis Zervos 
Author-X-Name-First: Vasilis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zervos 
Title: The impact of the us strategic defence initiative on the space race 
Abstract:
  This paper models the space race between the US and the Soviet Union
 during the Cold War using time series econometric modelling. The analysis
 shows that, post the Vietnam-war era, military considerations play a key
 role in explaining the behaviour of US space expenditure. In particular,
 the US Department of Defense (DoD) Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) of
 the early 1980s is shown to result in a changing structure of the space
 race. This is expected to continue in the future with the current
 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) programme and the withdrawal of the US from
 the ABM treaty of on space militarization. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 365-377 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Space expenditure, Space race, Strategic Defense Initiative, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000182928 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000182928 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:4:p:365-377




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anthony Turner 
Author-X-Name-First: Anthony 
Author-X-Name-Last: Turner 
Title: Estimated UK employment dependent on ministry of defence expenditure and defence exports 
Abstract:
  The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has published estimates of the number of
 average full-time UK industry employees dependent on MOD expenditure and
 defence exports for a number of years. This paper provides the outcome of
 a recent review of the process used. The method of deriving MOD and
 defence export final demand vectors, and calculating from these estimates
 of direct employment (i.e. that in supplying companies) and indirect
 employment (i.e. that incurred through the supply chain) are described.
 Difficulties with the data are explored. Alternative approaches, methods
 used in other countries and challenges posed by changing MOD
 administrative systems are briefly discussed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 331-342 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defence employment, Leontief Inverse, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110559 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000110559 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Azam 
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Azam 
Author-Name: Tahsin Saadi-Sedik 
Author-X-Name-First: Tahsin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Saadi-Sedik 
Title: Aid versus sanctions for taming oppressors: theory and case study of the Iraqi Kurds 
Abstract:
  We model an oppressor aiming at victimizing an excluded group in his
 country, with two main variants. A foreign power affects his behaviour
 using either conditional aid, subject to the dictator's participation
 constraint, or the threat of sanctions, broadly defined, subject to the
 credibility constraint. The choice between the two is either determined by
 the latter, or by their relative cost. Aid is preferred when the threat of
 sanctions is ineffective, and sanctions are too expensive. Sanctions might
 be imposed, if the threat is ineffective. A case study of the Iraqi Kurds
 after Iraq was subject to sanctions is presented. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 343-364 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Aid, Sanctions, Threats, Oppressors, Credibility, Iraqi Kurds JEL: N40-N45-O19-P45, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000201935 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000201935 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jun Sik Bae 
Author-X-Name-First: Jun Sik 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bae 
Title: An Empirical Analysis of the Arms Race Between South and North Korea 
Abstract:
  This study analyses an arms race between South and North Korea over the
 period 1963-2000. Despite the strategic importance of the Korean
 Peninsula, the arms race between South and North Korea has rarely been
 studied. In this study, the South-North arms race is empirically estimated
 using Richardson's action-reaction model. The pattern of South-North arms
 race between the Cold War (1963-1989) and the post-Cold War eras
 (1990-2000) as well as the existence of an arms race is examined comparing
 both countries' defence spending, number of military personnel and
 tactical aircraft. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 379-392 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Arms race, Defence spending, the Cold War, The Post-Cold War, South Korea, North Korea, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000155785 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000155785 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Benny Mantin 
Author-X-Name-First: Benny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mantin 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: The structure of the defense industry and the security needs of the country: a differentiated products model 
Abstract:
  This paper models the interactions between the defense needs of the USA
 and Western Europe, which produce several heterogeneous defense goods, and
 the defense industry market structure. The results show that net defense
 costs of the USA and Europe are lower when the number of defense firms in
 each arms-producing country is small and when the world prices of the
 defense goods are high. The model predicts that the increase in world
 prices will crowd-out countries in the developing world from the market
 for modern weapon systems and may force them to develop and use 'cheap and
 dirty' weapon systems. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 397-419 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defense industry, Security levels, Net defense cost, Industry profits, JEL codes: H56; H57; L11; L13, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000219323 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000219323 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward Keating 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward 
Author-X-Name-Last: Keating 
Author-Name: Matthew Dixon 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dixon 
Title: Investigating optimal replacement of aging air force systems 
Abstract:
  An availability-oriented approach has been developed to decide when to
 replace an aging system. For an existing system, it is optimal to operate
 another year if and only if the incremental cost per available year is
 less than the lifetime average cost per available year of a new aircraft.
 We illustrate our approach using United States Air Force KC-135 tanker
 data. In demonstrating our approach, we find it will be optimal to replace
 the KC-135 by the end of the decade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 421-431 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Repair versus replace, United States Air Force, KC-135, Aging aircraft, Reliability and Maintainability Information System (REMIS), Aircraft availability, JEL codes: H4; H56; H57, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246224 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246224 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Hosek 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hosek 
Author-Name: Mark Totten 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark 
Author-X-Name-Last: Totten 
Title: The effect of deployment on first- and second-term re-enlistment in the US active duty force  
Abstract:
  Why should deployment affect re-enlistment? In our model, members enter
 the military with naive beliefs about deployment and use actual deployment
 experience to update their beliefs and revise their expected utility of
 re-enlisting. Empirically, re-enlistment is related to the type and number
 of deployments, consistent with the learning model. Non-hostile deployment
 increases first-term re-enlistment but hostile deployment has little
 effect except for the Army, where the effect is positive. Both types
 increase second-term re-enlistment. Interestingly, first-term members with
 dependants tend to respond to deployment like second-term members. In
 addition, deployment acts directly to affect re-enlistment, not indirectly
 through time to promotion. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 433-451 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Deployment, Re-enlistment, Bayesian learning, Expected utility, JEL codes: J22, J24, J28, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690420001683337 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690420001683337 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karl Derouen 
Author-X-Name-First: Karl 
Author-X-Name-Last: Derouen 
Author-Name: Uk Heo 
Author-X-Name-First: Uk 
Author-X-Name-Last: Heo 
Title: Reward, punishment or inducement? US economic and military aid, 1946-1996 
Abstract:
  If the US has wielded power as global hegemon, then there should be
 evidence of a linkage between American resources and the ability to
 influence behavior. However, there is widespread disagreement on how this
 power is manifested (see Krause, 1991). Methodological and epistemological
 issues have hampered empirical studies of US hegemonic behavior. For
 example, does the US reward past behavior or does it offer inducements for
 future behavior? We document and discuss these issues in terms of the
 aid-foreign policy compliance nexus. The empirical portion of our paper
 tests whether US military and non-military aid are correlated with foreign
 policy similarity. The main merits of our study are that: (1) we test a
 new measure of foreign policy similarity developed by Signorino and Ritter
 (1999) and compiled by Gartzke et al. (1999); (2) we relax the causality
 issue and test using vector autoregression (VAR) for 76 developing
 countries; and (3) our time horizon is a minimum of 30 years for each
 country. Our central finding is that aid is most often used as a reward.
 More specifically, foreign policy similarity leads to greater economic aid
 for most African countries, foreign policy similarity leads to greater
 military aid for a majority of Latin American states, and there are no
 overarching patterns for Asia and the Middle East. We discuss the
 implications of our findings in the context of the bargaining and
 structural approaches to statecraft. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 453-470 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: US economic and military aid, Reward, Punishment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000222392 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000222392 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erdal Karagol 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagol 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: DO defence expenditures increase debt rescheduling in Turkey? probit model approach 
Abstract:
  This paper empirically investigates the importance of financial and
 political variables in determining debt rescheduling probabilities in
 Turkey for 1955-2000. The problem of sovereign debt default and
 rescheduling has been the subject of substantial academic research during
 the last two decades. There has been criticism of models of developing
 countries' indebtedness and rescheduling that rely solely on some economic
 or financial predictors related to country debt, the foreign exchange
 sector or the domestic economic situation. Using probit analysis, this
 paper indicates that financial variables are important determinants of
 rescheduling probabilities. However, political variables are not
 significant in our models. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 471-480 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defence expenditures, External debt, Turkey, Debt rescheduling, JEL codes: H56, C25, E65, F34, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000215921 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000215921 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. S. Andreou 
Author-X-Name-First: A. S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreou 
Author-Name: K. E. Parsopoulos 
Author-X-Name-First: K. E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Parsopoulos 
Author-Name: M. N. Vrahatis 
Author-X-Name-First: M. N. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vrahatis 
Author-Name: G. A. Zombanakis 
Author-X-Name-First: G. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakis 
Title: An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution 
Abstract:
  The issue that this paper tackles is the assessment of the relative
 security benefits that Cyprus and Greece derive in the context of their
 cooperation on defence matters. This form of cooperation, known as the
 'Integrated Defence Space Doctrine', aims at defending their interests in
 the Aegean Sea and the broader East Mediterranean theatre. The paper
 relies heavily on earlier research on this topic, which deals with the
 Greek-Cypriot alliance facing an arms race against Turkey, and uses a
 coefficient especially designed to assess the optimal levels of security
 and the associated defence expenditure of the two allies. A comparison of
 the relative security coefficient values for the two allies suggests that
 the security benefit that Greece derives thanks to its alliance with
 Cyprus exceeds the corresponding Cypriot benefit by far. Given the
 importance assigned to human resources by this index, in conjunction with
 the demographic problems of Greece, this conclusion justifies the recent
 Greek defence policy revision, emphasizing quality, capital equipment and
 flexibility of forces. This revision aims at satisfying the security
 requirements of the alliance and the increasing demands of an arms race
 against Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 481-495 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Optimal control, Defence expenditure, Arms race, Relative military security, JEL codes: C61, H56, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690420001688224 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690420001688224 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:5:p:481-495




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Derek Braddon 
Author-X-Name-First: Derek 
Author-X-Name-Last: Braddon 
Title: The matrix reloaded - what future for the defence firm? 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 499-507 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246657 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246657 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric Gates 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gates 
Title: The defence firm of the future 
Abstract:
  This paper offers the personal view of a senior executive in the Defence
 Procurement Agency about the future requirements of the defence industry's
 principal UK customer. The focus here is on trying to identify the type of
 corporate behaviour and range of skill sets that the UK Government will
 need from defence suppliers, both primes and supply chain companies in the
 future. The concluding message from this 'Customer View' is that there is
 likely to be a continuing market for the company that specializes in
 delivering defence capability. It will be a company that will be looking
 for a long-term relationship, with a specialist knowledge of its various
 national customers and a willingness to work openly and closely with them.
 It will be agile in its ability to bring together diverse technologies, to
 package them as a system and to deliver them either as hardware or as a
 service. Such suppliers will also need to innovate and to adapt at least
 as rapidly as the threats that they seek to counter. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 509-517 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Procurement, Defence industrial policy, Suppliers, COTS, NITEworks, Through life approach, Time to market, Supply chain development, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246666 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246666 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ian Jackson 
Author-X-Name-First: Ian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jackson 
Title: The future of the defence firm: the case of the UK aerospace industry 
Abstract:
  The focus of this paper is the future of the defence firm within the
 context of the UK aerospace industry and its supply chain. The analysis
 considers aerospace markets and the aerospace industry in the UK before
 assessing the future of the defence/aerospace firm as a case study. The
 paper concludes that its future in terms of the strategic and important
 aerospace industry is uncertain. The corporate governance of the defence
 firm will have to change to reflect the hollowing-out of the firm as the
 industry experiences significantly less vertical integration. The emphasis
 of the future defence/aerospace firm will be on 'buy' and not necessarily
 'make'. There will also be fewer independent defence aerospace firms as
 horizontal integration will occur across air, land and sea platforms as
 well as civil and defence aerospace firms. Indeed, conglomerate
 integration may even occur with cost pressures and market forces ensuring
 that merger activity goes beyond defence and aerospace into wider
 manufacturing industries and, in some cases, service industries in global
 markets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 519-534 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Aerospace industry, Supply chain, Defence firm, Aerospace markets, Horizontal integration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246675 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246675 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:6:p:519-534




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dowdall 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dowdall 
Title: Chains, networks and shifting paradigms: the UK defence industry supply system 
Abstract:
  Industrial supply chains have emerged as the focus of much economic and
 business research over the previous decade and defence is no exception.
 This paper reviews contributions made to the body of knowledge in this
 field with particular attention given to primary research undertaken on
 the UK defence industrial supply system. In doing so, the author assesses
 the quantity and quality of knowledge available to researchers, analysts
 and policy makers. There have been a number of valuable contributions to
 the literature and this paper reveals a subject that is extremely
 complicated, dynamic and yet under-researched. It is suggested that it may
 well be this complexity and dynamism, coupled with difficulty in accessing
 data, that has inhibited research development in this field. Defence
 industry supply systems are repeatedly referred to as 'chains'; however,
 primary research consistently suggests this is a misnomer - the author
 concludes that future analysis of the UK defence sector must embrace
 directly the economics of networks if understanding of the same is to
 progress and industrial 'invisibility' is to be avoided. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 535-550 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: UK defence industry, Supply chain, Networks, Restructuring, Primary research, Literature review, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246639 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246639 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:6:p:535-550




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wally Struys 
Author-X-Name-First: Wally 
Author-X-Name-Last: Struys 
Title: The future of the defence firm in small and medium countries 
Abstract:
  The Western European defence industry used to be characterized by
 numerous constraints, especially in the small countries, subject to
 uneconomic defence production policies. It faces, since the end of the
 Cold War, a succession of new challenges such as budget restrictions,
 armament reductions and geopolitical upheavals. The EU is pushing in the
 direction of a cohesive foreign policy, including security and defence.
 Today, the emergence of a more consolidated European defence industry and
 the presence of oligopolistic European companies imply the definition of
 new roles for the EU and for its European Security and Defence Policy
 (ESDP). The solution is not protectionism, but more co-operation to ensure
 effective defence production at a socially acceptable cost. In the
 framework of this co-operation, defence companies in small and medium
 countries have a role to play as part of the supply chain to major weapon
 system integrators. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 551-564 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Small and medium countries, Defence economics, Defence industry, ESDP, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246648 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246648 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dowdall 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dowdall 
Author-Name: Derek Braddon 
Author-X-Name-First: Derek 
Author-X-Name-Last: Braddon 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: The UK defence electronics industry: adjusting to change 
Abstract:
  The electronics industry provides components and capabilities that are
 critical to modern defence requirements. It is anticipated that the
 effectiveness of both weapons systems and the command and control network
 that supports military operations will become increasingly dependent upon
 the electronics sub-systems they employ in the future. With the ascendancy
 of 'network centric warfare', it seems certain that defence electronics
 will continue to grow in importance in the future, enabling far-reaching
 advances in military capability and efficiency. Yet little is known about
 the structure, conduct, performance and competitiveness of the UK defence
 electronics sector as it prepares to meet the challenges ahead. This paper
 reports the findings of a study commissioned in 2002 by Intellect, the UK
 defence electronics trade association, and supported by the Department of
 Trade and Industry. The UK defence electronics industry is found to be a
 high technology, R&D-intensive and decreasing cost industry, which is
 competitive in world defence markets. The UK industry faces major
 competitive threats in the future from established US and European firms
 and from potential new entrants from China, India, Israel, Singapore,
 South Korea and Turkey. The future competitiveness of the UK defence
 electronics industry will depend on maintaining both technical advantage
 and open access to the large US market. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 565-586 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 15 
Year: 2004 
Keywords: Defence electronics, Industry structure, Business conduct, Competitiveness, Network centric warfare, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269042000246684 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269042000246684 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:15:y:2004:i:6:p:565-586




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hirofumi Shimizu 
Author-X-Name-First: Hirofumi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shimizu 
Title: An economic analysis of the un peacekeeping assessment system 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes the effects on UN member states' contribution
 incentives of an assessment system employed by the United Nations for the
 financing of its peacekeeping operations. We argue that formal
 responsibilities placed on a member state by an assessment system increase
 the damage the country suffers when it under-contributes. The possibility
 of increasing each member state's contributions by redistributing its
 assessments across peacekeeping operations is also studied. It is shown
 that the possibility exists when the undercontributor-specific damage is a
 function of the arrears-to-assessment ratio, and not of simple arrears. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-18 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Public goods, Burden sharing, Joint product model, United Nations, Peacekeeping, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323515 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000323515 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dirk Rubbelke 
Author-X-Name-First: Dirk 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rubbelke 
Title: Differing motivations for terrorism 
Abstract:
  Analysis of terrorism often means an analysis of terror organizations. In
 contrast, this analysis investigates individual agents' motivations to
 support terrorism. These motivations do not only include the aim of
 terrorism, but also motivations which are exclusively inherent to the
 individual agent's sphere. The latter can, of course, not be identified in
 a framework focusing on the organizational sphere of terrorism. Therefore,
 our approach gives new hints for the combat of terrorism. We allow for
 different forms of terrorism. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 19-27 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Conjectures, Joint production, Terrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323524 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000323524 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:19-27




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Hansen 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hansen 
Author-Name: Jennie Wenger 
Author-X-Name-First: Jennie 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wenger 
Title: Is the pay responsiveness of enlisted personnel decreasing? 
Abstract:
  An examination of past analyses suggests that today's sailors may be less
 responsive to compensation changes than previous generations. Such a
 change could make recruiting and retaining high-quality sailors more
 difficult. However, variation in researchers' decisions over time may
 simply have created the appearance of such a change. Our results suggest
 there is little variation in the pay elasticity over time. In contrast,
 the different reduced-form models we use to measure this relationship can
 explain most of the variation in the literature. Therefore, the evidence
 suggests that while sailors may have changed over time, their response to
 compensation has not. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 29-43 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Pay elasticity, Reenlistment, Compensation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323533 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000323533 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chung-Nang Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Chung-Nang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Author-Name: Bwo-Nung Huang 
Author-X-Name-First: Bwo-Nung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang 
Author-Name: Chin-Wei Yang 
Author-X-Name-First: Chin-Wei 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang 
Title: Defense spending and economic growth across the Taiwan straits: a threshold regression model 
Abstract:
  This paper employs both linear and non-linear models to investigate the
 relationship between national defense spending and economic growth for
 Taiwan and China. Using data from 1953-2000 on defense spending, GDP,
 import, export and capital, we find that China's defense spending leads
 that of Taiwan. There exists the phenomenon of an arms race between both
 countries when official Chinese data are used. On the one hand, feedback
 relations prevail between economic growth and defense spending growth in
 Taiwan. On the other hand, China's national defense is found to lead
 economic growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 45-57 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Arms race, Multivariate threshold models, Defense spending, Economic growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323542 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000323542 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:45-57




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: G. Sharp 
Author-X-Name-First: G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sharp 
Title: The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports: a comment 
Abstract:
  Recent joint work by Professors Malcolm Chalmers and Keith Hartley and
 Messrs Neil V. Davies and Chris Wilkinson put the one-off cost to British
 GDP of a 50% fall in UK defence exports at up to &#xa3;2-2.5 billion plus
 small ongoing losses of net government receipts. A view of typical British
 defence firms as discriminating monopolists suggests that British GDP
 might also suffer modest losses of economic rents on defence exports.
 These losses would persist so long as UK governments continue to procure
 specialized military equipment from national suppliers, and appear as
 worse terms of trade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 59-66 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Defence exports, Economic rents, Discriminating monopolist, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000323551 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000323551 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:1:p:59-66




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tony Addison 
Author-X-Name-First: Tony 
Author-X-Name-Last: Addison 
Author-Name: Mansoob Murshed 
Author-X-Name-First: Mansoob 
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed 
Title: Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries  
Abstract:
  This paper models transnational terrorism as a three-way strategic
 interaction involving a government that faces armed opposition at home,
 which may spill over in the form of acts of terrorism by the state's
 opponents against the government's external sponsor. The external sponsor
 also utilises deterrence against potential terrorists, which only lowers
 terrorism if terrorists are not intrinsically motivated by a deep-seated
 sense of humiliation. The model highlights the importance of intrinsic
 motivation. A rise in the external power's preference for deterrence
 against terrorism may backfire in these circumstances. Increases in the
 government's military efficiency against the rebels, who are also
 terrorists against the government's sponsor, raises overall levels of
 violence. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 69-82 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Conflict, Terrorism, Intrinsic motivation, JEL code: C72, D81, H11, O19, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500070078 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500070078 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:69-82




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Author-Name: Sebastian Negrusa 
Author-X-Name-First: Sebastian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Negrusa 
Title: Evasion costs and the theory Of conscription 
Abstract:
  Many countries of Europe are moving from conscripted to volunteer
 military forces. This paper examines the current status of those
 conversions and interprets them in light of an economic model of the
 military manpower procurement system choice developed in Warner and Asch
 (1996). The theoretical model is expanded to include the social costs of
 individuals' attempts to evade conscription and the government's cost of
 preventing it. Differences in evasion costs may be a significant factor in
 some European countries' decisions to keep conscription and other
 countries' decisions to end it. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 83-100 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: JEL Codes: H21, H56, J31, J33, J38, J45, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500083626 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500083626 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:83-100




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jr-Tsung Huang 
Author-X-Name-First: Jr-Tsung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang 
Author-Name: An-Pang Kao 
Author-X-Name-First: An-Pang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kao 
Title: Does defence spending matter to employment in Taiwan?  
Abstract:
  This paper investigates an important but neglected issue regarding the
 economic role of defence spending on employment in Taiwan. The study
 herein adopts official time series data of yearly defence spending,
 employment in the private sector, GDP, average monthly salary from 1966 to
 2002, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to the
 cointegration proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Pesaran et al.
 (2001). The main finding of this study is that defence spending is able to
 benefit the employment situation in the long run, but damages employment
 in the short run, which is reasonable but different from the finding in
 Turkey provided by Yildirim and Sezgin (2003). In addition, the change in
 real GDP has a positive and significant influence on employment in both
 the short run and long run 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 101-115 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Defence spending, Employment, Real monthly salary, Taiwan, JEL code: H56, J21, O53, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500070094 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500070094 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:101-115




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erdal Karagol 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagol 
Title: Defence expenditures and external debt in Turkey 
Abstract:
  The causal relationship between defence expenditures and external debt is
 investigated by applying a multivariate model. Our estimation results
 indicate that defence expenditures and external debt for Turkey are
 cointegrated. To test for Granger causality in the presence of
 cointegration between variables, we employ a vector error correction
 model. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1955-2000 suggest a
 long run and short run unidirectional causality running from defence
 expenditures to external debt but not vice versa. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 117-125 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Debt, Defence, Turkey, Causality, JEL Codes: H63, H61, H40, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500070045 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500070045 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:117-125




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hayward 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hayward 
Title: 'I have seen the future and it works': The US defence industry transformation - lessons for the UK defence industrial base 
Abstract:
  The US has embarked upon a major transformation of its approach to
 defence industrial base planning. Although bureaucratic and industrial
 inertia, as well as budgetary constraints, may delay transformation, its
 effects will lead to radical changes in the US defence industrial base
 with new entrants and new combinations of players. The UK, with more
 modest defence ambitions, capabilities and budget, will seek to keep in
 touch with the US. However, a commercially-led drive to embed UK industry
 even more deeply in the US defence market could be the last step in
 creating a largely US-UK North Atlantic relationship, with much of Europe
 very much a subsidiary business concern. This contains a risk that the UK
 will become increasingly dependent on the US for design and integration of
 major systems and national defence industrial capability focused on a
 limited number of niche technologies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 127-141 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Transformation, UK Ministry of Defence, US Department of Defense, Defence acquisition, Defence industry base, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269032000110559 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269032000110559 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:2:p:127-141




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ugurhan Berkok 
Author-X-Name-First: Ugurhan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berkok 
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Introduction 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 143-144 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123406 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123406 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:143-144




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Craig Stone 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Craig 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stone 
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Canadian defence policy and spending 
Abstract:
  This survey article deals with defence policy, spending and the
 industrial base in Canada since the Second World War. In particular, the
 macroeconomic realities underpinning defence expenditure patterns as well
 as the unique microeconomic conditions affecting the Canadian defence
 industrial base are highlighted. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 145-169 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Canada, Defence industrial base, Defence expenditures, Peacekeeping, Middle power, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123414 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123414 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:145-169




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: The demand for Canadian defence expenditures 
Abstract:
  This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of the demand for
 Canadian military expenditures through the estimation of a demand for
 defence expenditures model for the time period 1952-2001 using, among
 others, the auto-regressive distributed lag approach to cointegration
 (ARDL) to estimate and test cointegration and long run relationships. The
 findings suggest that Canadian defence spending is determined by NATO's
 (Europe) defence spending, that of the US to a lesser extent, relative
 price effects and opportunity cost considerations. In light of the fact
 that Canada's national, foreign and defence interests are tied to
 international organizations and bilateral arrangements, the results are
 not surprising. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 171-189 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: ARDL models, Joint product model, NATO, Relative price effects, Demand models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123380 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123380 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:171-189




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ugurhan Berkok 
Author-X-Name-First: Ugurhan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berkok 
Title: Specialization in defence forces 
Abstract:
  The choice between balanced and specialized defence forces depends on the
 technology of defence output (e.g. whether a force scope multiplier is
 present), the existence of scope and scale economies, the platform
 customization costs and, of course, the level of defence budgets. Minimum
 force element levels (thresholds), and scale economies facilitate
 specialization as opposed to scope economies (e.g. platform-sharing),
 scale diseconomies and the force scope multiplier (e.g. defence
 weakest-link technology). When a balanced force is not optimal, the option
 value of a non-optimally maintained force element must also include the
 opportunity cost arising from suboptimal force elements. Shrinking defence
 budgets may produce two surprising phenomena. If some force elements are
 shut down as a result of thresholds, the surviving ones may increase in
 platform numbers as well as enjoying closer-to-most-desirable platforms.
 Furthermore, if heritage force elements are shut down within the budget
 contraction environment, overall defence capability might rise. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 191-204 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Specialized or balanced defence force, Force scope multiplier, Scope and scale economies, Platform sharing, Weakest-link technology, Platform customization, Heritage force element, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123356 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123356 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:191-204




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Philippe Lagasse 
Author-X-Name-First: Philippe 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lagasse 
Title: Specialization and the Canadian forces 
Abstract:
  Canada is facing a force structuring dilemma. In spite of Ottawa's desire
 to promote international peace and stability alongside the United States
 and the United Nations, Canada's minimalist approaches to defence spending
 and capital expenditures are undermining the long-term viability of the
 Canadian Forces' (CF) expeditionary and interoperable capabilities. Two
 solutions to this dilemma present themselves: increased defence spending
 or greater force structure specialization. Since Ottawa is unlikely to
 increase defence spending, specialization provides the only practical
 solution to the CF's capabilities predicament. Although it would limit the
 number of tasks that the CF could perform overseas, specialization would
 maximize the output of current capital expenditures and preserve the CF's
 interoperability with the US military in an age of defence transformation.
 This paper thus argues that the economics of Canadian defence necessitate
 a more specialized CF force structure. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 205-222 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Canadian defence, Force structure, Specialization, Interoperability, Capital expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123208 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123208 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:205-222




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Craig Stone 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Craig 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stone 
Title: Planning defence budget allocations for Canada's Strategy 2020 
Abstract:
  This article examines the transformation aspects of Strategy 2020 with
 particular emphasis on the budget allocation options available to move the
 Canadian Forces towards an RMA capable force structure. The results of the
 research indicate that a significant budget increase above the expected
 rate of inflation will be required. The research has shown that an
 optimistic set of assumptions would require the defence budget to almost
 double to $23.9 billion by the year 2020, while a worst case scenario
 could require a defence budget as high as $30 billion by 2020. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-246 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Canada, Budget allocation, Defence, Defence expenditures, Force structure, RMA; Transformation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123257 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123257 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:223-246




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: LAWRENCE McDONOUGH 
Author-X-Name-First: LAWRENCE 
Author-X-Name-Last: McDONOUGH 
Title: The industrial structure of National Defence and transaction costs 
Abstract:
  The relationship between National Interests, National Strategy and
 National Defence strategy is reviewed. The key elements of transaction
 cost economics are described and a model of National Defence as an
 integrated set of industries is described. Changes in the transactions
 cost environment since the collapse of the Soviet Union are analyzed with
 respect to their effects on the governance structure of National Defence.
 At each transactional location - final goods, primary inputs, and
 intermediate goods - the environmental changes are assessed with respect
 to governance costs. We find that at each location there exist relative
 reductions in the governance costs of hybrid forms of organization and
 give examples. The impetus for continued change in the governance
 structure of the defence sector is certain. These forces have not been
 appreciated in terms of their interactions with National Interests and
 National Strategy, suggesting an important feedback loop from the
 implementation of Defence Strategy to National Interests. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 247-262 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: National interests, Strategy, Transaction costs, Environmental changes, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500123448 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500123448 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:3:p:247-262




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Joao Ricardo Faria 
Author-X-Name-First: Joao Ricardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria 
Author-Name: Daniel Arce 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce 
Title: TERROR SUPPORT AND RECRUITMENT 
Abstract:
  We analyse a dynamic model linking terrorist activities to popular
 support through a recruitment mechanism. It is shown that anti-terrorism
 policies focusing on liberal ideals (reducing repression, increasing
 economic opportunity) are effective at abating recruitment, thereby
 affecting the dynamic stability of terrorist attacks. In contrast,
 deterrence's comparative advantage is in counteracting hard-core members,
 implying that terror eradication itself requires an emphasis on hard-core
 membership, rather than popular support for terror activities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 263-273 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Terrorist networks, Anti-terrorist policies, Terrorist recruitment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000344855 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000344855 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:263-273




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Anderton 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton 
Author-Name: John Carter 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Carter 
Title: ON RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY AND THE STUDY OF TERRORISM 
Abstract:
  When rational choice theory is applied to the study of terrorism, it is
 important that attention be given to the derived principles of constrained
 utility maximization. Particularly useful is the Slutsky equation, which
 rigorously analyzes the quantity response in one activity to a price
 change in another. By directing attention to assumptions and/or
 information about compensated cross price elasticities, expenditure
 shares, and income elasticities, the Slutsky equation can provide critical
 guidance in both theoretical and empirical analysis. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 275-282 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Terrorism, Rational choice, Deterrence, Income and substitution effects, Slutsky equation, Composite good, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/1024269052000344864 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1024269052000344864 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:275-282




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Author-Name: Nadir Ocal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ocal 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  Defence expenditures have both costs and benefits to the economy. The
 costs of defence expenditures are mainly emphasized as opportunity costs.
 On the other hand, defence spending may have growth-promoting potential
 benefits: a rise in defence spending may result in a higher aggregate
 demand, production and employment. This paper examines empirically the
 effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern
 countries and Turkey, for the time-period 1989-1999. The relationship
 between military expenditure and economic growth is investigated by using
 cross-section and dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical analysis
 indicates that military expenditure enhances economic growth in the Middle
 Eastern countries and Turkey as a whole. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 283-295 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Economic growth, Defence economics, Dynamic panel data analysis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500114751 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500114751 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:283-295




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Title: AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF FRENCH MILITARY EXPENDITURES 
Abstract:
  In the post-Cold War context of decreasing military expenditures and
 arms-market crisis, France has redefined its defence policy, giving up the
 model of protected arms production and exports while reasserting its
 military and strategic ambitions. But does the country still have the
 means of its ambitions? The analysis of statistical data since 1990 may
 show that the independent policy of security has been clearly replaced by
 a real dependency on armaments and strategies, in the context of higher
 budgetary constraints. Military expenditures now seem to be more an
 economic burden than a driving force. The study of the defence budget
 compared with the general state budget shows that military expenditures
 are often used as variables of economic adjustment and that inertia
 effects are important. Several aspects of the French defence policy are
 underlined, notably the weakness of French military research and
 development, the declining share of capital expenditures in the defence
 budget and the decreasing investment in the nuclear field. In addition,
 the French arms industry suffers from a too-belated restructuring and from
 the continuing compartimentalization of European markets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 297-315 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: French defence policy, Defence budget, Defence industrial base, Structure of military expenditures, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500115915 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500115915 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:297-315




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: NATO BENEFITS, BURDENS AND BORDERS: COMMENT 
Abstract:
  This note refutes criticism raised by Solomon about past tests used to
 ascertain the concordance between NATO benefits and burdens. In so doing,
 a case is made for keeping the benefit proxy based on exposed borders.
 Moreover, a truer sensitivity analysis than that offered by Solomon is
 suggested. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-321 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Burden sharing, Joint product model, NATO, Public goods, Exposed borders, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500083709 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500083709 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:317-321




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: NATO BENEFITS, BURDENS AND BORDERS: REPLY 
Abstract:
  This note implements the sensitivity analysis suggested by Sandler and
 re-examines the robustness of the concordance between NATO benefits and
 burdens. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 323-326 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Burden sharing, Joint product model, NATO; Public goods, Exposed borders, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500083675 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500083675 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:4:p:323-326




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: INTRODUCTION: SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS IN A POST-9/11 WORLD 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 327-329 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500207274 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500207274 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:327-329




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kobi Kagan 
Author-X-Name-First: Kobi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kagan 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Author-Name: Avi Weiss 
Author-X-Name-First: Avi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Weiss 
Title: ON THE USE OF TERROR WEAPONS VERSUS MODERN WEAPON SYSTEMS IN AN ARMS RACE BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
  Some of the most active arms races are taking place between developed and
 less developed countries. The inability of less developed countries to
 compete financially, as well as technologically, with developed countries
 may be forcing the former to acquire terror weapons (TWP). The Iran-Iraq
 war in the 1980s and the events of 9/11 proved that the use of TWP is no
 longer a mere threat; there are several organizations and countries that
 will not hesitate to use them. This study develops a model of resource
 allocation in an arms race between a developed country that is
 characterized by state-of-the-art technology and high GDP, and a less
 developed country whose technological capability and GDP are much lower.
 The model is used to predict the optimal mix of weapons of the two
 countries that are engaged in the arms race. Applying the model to the
 arms race between Israel and Syria demonstrates its use. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 331-346 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Arms race, Defense systems, Weapons of mass destruction, Developing countries, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500207316 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500207316 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:331-346




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rapha&#xeb;l Franck 
Author-X-Name-First: Rapha&#xeb;l 
Author-X-Name-Last: Franck 
Author-Name: Arye Hillman 
Author-X-Name-First: Arye 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hillman 
Author-Name: Miriam Krausz 
Author-X-Name-First: Miriam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Krausz 
Title: PUBLIC SAFETY AND THE MORAL DILEMMA IN THE DEFENSE AGAINST TERROR 
Abstract:
  The economic theory of defense has traditionally described public safety
 as achieved through investments that deter adversaries. Deterrence is,
 however, ineffective and pre-emptive defense is required when a population
 of intended victims confronts supreme-value suicide terror. A moral
 dilemma then arises, since pre-emption may impose collective punishment,
 while in the absence of pre-emption the population of intended victims is
 exposed to acts of terror. We consider how a population of intended terror
 victims confronts the moral dilemma, and compare the threatened
 population's response with the public-safety recommendations of external
 judges who are not personally affected by the threat of terror. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 347-364 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Defense economics, Defensive pre-emption, Counter-terrorism, Terror, International judges, Profiling, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500207399 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500207399 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:347-364




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Hilsenrath 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hilsenrath 
Title: HEALTH POLICY AS COUNTER-TERRORISM: HEALTH SERVICES AND THE PALESTINIANS 
Abstract:
  Counter-terrorism and health policies converge in the complex world of
 Middle East politics. Hamas, labeled a terrorist organization by Israel,
 the United States and Europe, is also a major participant in the health
 sector of the&#xa0;Gaza Strip and West Bank. Hamas gains important
 legitimacy and political support with its social services. Palestinian
 policies directed at these services can be part of a counter-terrorism
 strategy as long as violence is part of the Hamas agenda. This paper
 describes the Palestinian health sector using cross-sectional bivariate
 regressions. It then discusses the role of stronger public institutions to
 help thwart terrorism and promote peace and prosperity in the region. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 365-374 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Hamas, Health policy, Palestinians, Economic institutions, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500210831 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500210831 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:365-374




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tilman Bruck 
Author-X-Name-First: Tilman 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bruck 
Title: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SECURITY POLICIES 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses public policy choices in the security economy from an
 economic perspective. It discusses the role of public goods for national
 and global security and identifies the importance of the first- and
 second-order indirect effects of insecurity on economic activity, which
 include the behavioural responses of agents and the government to security
 measures, akin to such effects in insurance economics. Furthermore, key
 public policy trade-offs are outlined, in particular between security and
 efficiency, globalisation, equity and freedom. The analysis identifies
 suitable policy options for raising security in the national and
 international contexts and in view of these trade-offs. A balance between
 market and non-market instruments in achieving security should be aimed
 for in order to minimise the adverse effects of aiming for higher
 security. In addition, the public good nature of security implies that
 international coordination of security policies is important, despite this
 process being fraught with enforcement problems. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 375-389 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Collective goods, Public policy, Regulation, Risk, Security, Terrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500210864 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500210864 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:375-389




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: S. Mansoob Murshed 
Author-X-Name-First: S. Mansoob 
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed 
Title: QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS ON THE FLOW OF NARCOTICS: SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESTRAINTS IN A NORTH-SOUTH MACRO-MODEL 
Abstract:
  This paper constructs a macroeconomic model of North-South interaction
 where the flow of narcotics from the South to the North is restricted. The
 economic effects are akin to quantitative restrictions in trade policy.
 Two alternative policy scenarios will be considered. One involves reducing
 the supply of drugs at the source, accompanied by aid. Supply-side
 restrictions have negative aggregate supply-side effects in the producing
 region, because of the monopoly rents generated from that type of control.
 This makes them a second-best policy, particularly if the accompanying aid
 is not used for poverty alleviation and fails to expand domestic aggregate
 demand. Alternatively, demand side restrictions will be found to be
 superior. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 391-401 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: North-South interaction, Trade policy, Narcotics control, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500210914 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500210914 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:5:p:391-401




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Phillips 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Phillips 
Title: THE 'PRICE' OF TERRORISM 
Abstract:
  Security measures are said to increase the price of terrorism. This price
 has not been hitherto defined in an economically meaningful way. This
 paper provides a precise definition by treating the terrorists' resource
 endowment as a parcel of contingent claims to political influence with a
 price equal to the summed value of those contingent claims in potential
 states of the world. Equipped with this definition, an equilibrium model
 of the price of terrorism is deployed. Important insights are gained into
 the effect of terrorists' risk aversion at the level of the price of
 terrorism in different states of the world and the theoretical conclusion
 is reached that higher security is associated with a lower price of
 terrorism rather than a higher price. The implications for policy are
 discussed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 403-414 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Terrorism, Price of terrorism, Resource endowment, Contingent claims, Political influence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500115931 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500115931 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:403-414




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jhy-Yuan Shieh 
Author-X-Name-First: Jhy-Yuan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shieh 
Author-Name: Jhy-Hwa Chen 
Author-X-Name-First: Jhy-Hwa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen 
Author-Name: Juin-Jen Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Juin-Jen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Ching-Chong Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Ching-Chong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Title: TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL 
Abstract:
  This paper incorporates the nature of terrorist threats into the Yarri
 (1965)-Blanchard (1985) model and uses it to discuss the transitional
 dynamics of consumption in response to an anticipated terrorist attack. It
 is shown that if the terrorist attack is pre-announced (and hence
 anticipated) and the public is fully informed, short-term consumption may
 misadjust from its long-term level. Before the terrorist attacks actually
 take place, households may be motivated to increase (rather than decrease)
 their consumption as a temporary response. This result may explain the
 temporary phenomenon of the increased consumption of certain types of
 goods in the period following September 11. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 415-425 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Security spending, Terrorist threats, Overlapping generations model, Transitional dynamics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500115956 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500115956 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:415-425




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yoad Shefi 
Author-X-Name-First: Yoad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shefi 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD DEFENSE INDUSTRY AND US MILITARY AID TO ISRAEL ON THE ISRAELI DEFENSE INDUSTRY: A DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCTS MODEL 
Abstract:
  This paper models the interactions between the defense industry market
 structure and the defense needs of Israel, the USA and Western Europe,
 which produce several heterogeneous defense goods. The model specifies
 that the defense industries of the US and Europe are 'large' while that of
 Israel is 'small'. The US military aid to Israel is also an integral part
 of the model. The results show that net defense costs of Israel are
 minimal when the number of its defense firms is one. The model predicts
 that an increase in US military aid reduces Israel's government
 expenditure, its defense industry's profits and its net defense costs. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 427-448 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Defense industry, Security levels, US military aid, Net defense cost, Industry profits, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500167759 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500167759 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:427-448




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Author-Name: Dirk Willenbockel 
Author-X-Name-First: Dirk 
Author-X-Name-Last: Willenbockel 
Title: MODELS OF MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GROWTH: A CRITICAL REVIEW 
Abstract:
  This paper reviews some of the theoretical and econometric issues
 involved in estimating growth models that include military spending. While
 the mainstream growth literature has not found military expenditure to be
 a significant determinant of growth, much of the defence economics
 literature has found significant effects. The paper argues that this is
 largely the product of the particular specification, the Feder-Ram model,
 that has been used in the defence economics literature but not in the
 mainstream literature. The paper critically evaluates this model,
 detailing its problems and limitations and suggests that it should be
 avoided. It also critically evaluates two alternative theoretical
 approaches, the Augmented Solow and the Barro models, suggesting that they
 provide a more promising avenue for future research. It concludes with
 some general comments about modelling the links between military
 expenditure and growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 449-461 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Defence spending, Growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500167791 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500167791 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:449-461




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: W. J. Hurley 
Author-X-Name-First: W. J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hurley 
Title: A CLARIFICATION OF THE CONCEPTS OF FORCE MULTIPLIER AND RETURNS TO FORCE SCALE 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 463-465 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 16 
Year: 2005 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500167817 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500167817 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:16:y:2005:i:6:p:463-465




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chad Meyerhoefer 
Author-X-Name-First: Chad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Meyerhoefer 
Author-Name: Robert Trost 
Author-X-Name-First: Robert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Trost 
Title: TIRED TITANIUM: A FATIGUE-BASED APPROACH TO AIRCRAFT INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND ACQUISITION PLANNING 
Abstract:
  Airframe fatigue has emerged as a primary determinant of tactical
 aircraft service life. To investigate the impact of various operational
 scenarios on airframe fatigue and aircraft stocks, we develop an
 econometric model of fatigue and arrest landing accumulation for US Naval
 aircraft. Model forecasts suggest that fatigue-related attrition threatens
 to reduce inventories below the level needed to meet operational
 commitments before planned replacements are available. Changes to training
 regimes could mitigate the shortfall, but it is likely that acquisition
 schedules will have to be accelerated, or current service life extension
 programs expanded to maintain inventories in the future. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-21 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Airframe fatigue, Aircraft procurement, Acquisition planning, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500369298 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500369298 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:1-21




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Damien Besancenot 
Author-X-Name-First: Damien 
Author-X-Name-Last: Besancenot 
Author-Name: Radu Vranceanu 
Author-X-Name-First: Radu 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vranceanu 
Title: EUROPEAN DEFENCE FIRMS: THE INFORMATION BARRIER ON PRIVATE FINANCE 
Abstract:
  After the fall of the Berlin Wall, European governments adopted a
 hands-off policy towards the defence industrial base, in an attempt to
 increase the sector's efficiency and reactivity. In this context, one
 topical issue is how to motivate defence firms to apply for private rather
 than public finance. Since banks have no prior experience with European
 defence firms, a problem of asymmetric information may block this
 transition. The problem is analysed within the framework of a game between
 defence firms and banks. It is shown that the Bayesian Equilibrium might
 correspond to a situation where low-risk firms prefer the state-financed
 scheme; yet, in a perfect information set-up, the same firms would apply
 for bank credit. In order to facilitate the transition to private finance,
 the government might decide to subsidize investors who agree on financing
 defence firms; the state aid should be made available during a transitory
 learning period. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 23-36 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: European defence firms, Private finance, Bayesian Equilibrium, Asymmetric information, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500216580 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500216580 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:23-36




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Nadir Ocal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ocal 
Title: ARMS RACE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN 
Abstract:
  The hostility between India and Pakistan is believed to have led to an
 arms race between the two countries, which might have contributed to their
 retarded economic growth. This paper investigates this twin problem of
 arms race and economic growth for the time period 1949-2003. The empirical
 results suggest that there is a mutual causal relationship between the
 military expenditures of India and Pakistan. Even though military
 expenditure does not Granger cause economic growth in Pakistan, there is
 causality from military expenditure to economic growth in India. A VAR
 analysis revealed that military expenditure hinders economic growth in
 India in the long-run, but it has a growth promoting effect in the
 short-run. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 37-45 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Arms race, Growth, India and Pakistan, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500369231 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500369231 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:37-45




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erdal Karagol 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagol 
Title: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXTERNAL DEBT, DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GNP REVISITED: THE CASE OF TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This paper extends the Looney and Frederiksen (1986) study and
 investigates the relationship among external debt, defence expenditures
 and GNP in Turkey for 1960-2002. After applying cointegration analysis of
 a multivariate system of equations, impulse response functions and
 variance decomposition are estimated. The impulse response functions
 indicate that defence expenditures have a positive effect on external debt
 stock. Moreover, impulse response of GNP to defence expenditures tended to
 hike slightly within two years ahead, and dipped sharply by two years, and
 thereafter continued at a positive level. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 47-57 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: External debt, Defence expenditures, GNP, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500369199 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500369199 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:47-57




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kazunori Tanigaki 
Author-X-Name-First: Kazunori 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tanigaki 
Title: DEFENSE SECTOR, ARMAMENTS-LABOR RATIO AND NATIONAL SECURITY 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes a national defense economy in which the army reduces
 the risk of attack and damage. The results show that it is important how
 countries or people feel about damage to military personnel, citizens and
 wealth from attack. The feeling determines the optimal levels of arms
 procurement and army personnel. It also affects international trade. It is
 found that labor (armaments) input into the military sector is not always
 decreased following an increase of wage (armaments price). The model
 suggests that conscription affects army expenditure and international
 trade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 59-71 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Military expenditures, Armaments-labor ratio, Willingness-to-pay for safety, Arms imports, International trade, feeling about damage, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500233692 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500233692 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:59-71




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Author-Name: Andreas Gofas 
Author-X-Name-First: Andreas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gofas 
Title: IN SEARCH OF THE AVERAGE TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACK VENUE 
Abstract:
  In this paper we develop an empirical model for transnational terrorist
 activity for a panel consisting of 139 countries over the period
 1985-1998. Essentially, we attempt to sketch the profile of the average
 terrorist attack venue. Our findings suggest that the terrorist attack
 venue is, on average, characterized by low economic openness, high
 demographic stress, and a high level of international disputes.
 Furthermore, we document a strong regional component suggesting the
 presence of infectious contagion on a spatial level. Our results also
 support the presence of addictive contagion captured by a strong
 autoregressive component in each country's terrorist activity. Finally, we
 find a weak statistical link between the level of democracy and terrorist
 activity, although the level of democracy is a significant determinant of
 the potential under-reporting bias of terrorist activity. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 73-93 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Negative binomial, Terrorism, Zero-inflation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500445387 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500445387 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:73-93




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Author-Name: Luis Gil-Alana 
Author-X-Name-First: Luis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gil-Alana 
Title: ETA: A PERSISTENT PHENOMENON 
Abstract:
  Most searchers performing unit root tests on terrorism series reject the
 null hypothesis of unit roots (I(1)) and conclude that terrorism is
 stationary (I(0)). In this paper we analyze ETA activity in Spain during
 the last 30 years by means of examining its degree of dependence across
 time, using fractional integration or I(d) techniques. The results show
 that the activity of ETA is persistent to some extent, with an order of
 integration of about 0.40, implying stationarity, but also long memory
 behavior. We argue that this strong degree of dependence between the
 observations might be explained by the historical background underlying
 the political conflict in the area. In addition, the results indicate that
 the most significant factors contributing to a reduction of violence are
 those related to political pacts among the political parties in the Basque
 region. In order to put an end to ETA's violence, these accords should
 involve both nationalist and non-nationalist groups. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 95-116 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Terrorism, ETA, Fractional integration, Long memory, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500464214 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500464214 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:95-116




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrew Middleton 
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew 
Author-X-Name-Last: Middleton 
Author-Name: Steven Bowns 
Author-X-Name-First: Steven 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bowns 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: James Reid 
Author-X-Name-First: James 
Author-X-Name-Last: Reid 
Title: THE EFFECT OF DEFENCE R&D ON MILITARY EQUIPMENT QUALITY 
Abstract:
  Studies into the output of R&D generally take a qualitative view of case
 histories and do not provide a quantitative template for the analysis of
 'cause and effect' suited to investment management. This study describes
 the development of a quantitative model of the relationship between
 defence R&D and equipment capability. Using open source data, the military
 equipment quality of 10 nations has been evaluated from 1971 to 2005 and
 time-dependent correlation with R&D investment back to 1951 analysed. We
 find that the nations studied 'got what they paid for', with their R&D
 expenditure positively correlated with equipment capability. The observed
 variability in equipment quality was most highly correlated with R&D spend
 10-25 years earlier. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 117-139 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defence R&D, Military equipment quality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600636869 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600636869 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:117-139




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Macdonald 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Macdonald 
Title: CAPITAL-LABOUR SUBSTITUTION IN UK ARMED FORCES 
Abstract:
  This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution (&#x3c3;) between
 military personnel and other military inputs, building on a study by Ridge
 and Smith published in 1991. The major difference is that this paper uses
 data on the average military wage, which Ridge and Smith did not, allowing
 a much more flexible specification of both the demand and supply
 equations. Accounting for a structural break at the end of the Cold War,
 it finds &#x3c3; likely to be some small positive number, much lower than
 previous estimates suggest. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 141-153 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Elasticity of substitution, Military manpower, Military labour, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500512236 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500512236 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mark Van de Vijver 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark 
Author-X-Name-Last: Van de Vijver 
Author-Name: Bart Vos 
Author-X-Name-First: Bart 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vos 
Title: THE F-35 JOINT STRIKE FIGHTER AS A SOURCE OF INNOVATIon AND EMPLOYMENT: SOME INTERIM RESULTS 
Abstract:
  The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programme is important for innovation
 in the Dutch economy and also contributes to other programmes in the
 aerospace industry (spin-off) and other industries (spillover). On top of
 the expected value of US$9.2 billion in development and production, based
 on interviews with 10 companies and research institutes, an expected
 spin-off of US$1.1 billion and an expected spillover of US$120 million
 will result. In addition, over 23,000 man-years are associated with the
 activities in the development and production of the JSF. This study
 excludes the large and labour-intensive Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul
 (MRO) activities. Further validation of data and an update of current
 results is planned for 2006. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 155-159 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Joint Strike Fighter, Spin-off, Spillover, Innovation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600554831 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600554831 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oren Setter 
Author-X-Name-First: Oren 
Author-X-Name-Last: Setter 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: INTRODUCTION: DEFENSE RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 165-167 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600644996 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600644996 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:165-167




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: DEFENCE R&D: DATA ISSUES 
Abstract:
  What is known, what is not known, and what is it necessary to know for
 informed choices about defence R&D? The published data on
 government-funded defence R&D are reviewed and assessed. Time-series and
 cross-section data are presented for the world's leading defence R&D
 nations. World defence R&D spending is estimated at almost $68 billion in
 2001. Gaps in the data are identified and proposals are made for
 international comparisons of final outputs allowing an assessment of the
 relative efficiencies of national defence R&D programmes. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 169-175 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defence R&D, Data tables, Beneficial externalities, Relative efficiencies, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645027 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645027 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:169-175




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Manuel Trajtenberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Manuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Trajtenberg 
Title: DEFENSE R&D IN THE ANTI-TERRORIST ERA 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes the terrorist threat following 9/11, and explores its
 implications for defense R&D. First, it reviews the composition of defense
 R&D since 9/11: big weapon systems still command 30% of defense R&D
 spending (legacy of the Cold War), vis-a-vis just about 13% for
 intelligence and anti-terrorism. The second part examines the nature of
 the terrorist threat, and develops a simple model of terrorism, cast in a
 nested discrete choice framework. Two strategies are considered: fighting
 terrorism at its source, and protecting individual targets, which entails
 a negative externality. Intelligence emerges as the key aspect of the war
 against terrorism and, accordingly, R&D aimed at enhancing intelligence
 capabilities is viewed as the cornerstone of defense R&D. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 177-199 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Terrorism, Defense R&D, Public goods, Intelligence, Dual-use, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645076 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645076 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:177-199




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oren Setter 
Author-X-Name-First: Oren 
Author-X-Name-Last: Setter 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: A BRAVE LEAP OR A GRADUAL CLIMB? THE DYNAMICS OF INVESTMENT IN R&D OF INTEGRATIVE TECHNOLOGIES 
Abstract:
  Our paper explores the optimal investment in integrative technologies
 (such as command and control systems), which are a major part of defense
 R&D at the beginning of the 21st century. Employing a dynamic optimization
 framework, we find that under linear development costs, it may be optimal
 or nearly optimal to build military forces using a myopic, short-termed,
 approach. In such cases, it would be optimal to transform an armed force
 into a network-centric environment within just a few years. When
 development costs are convex however, early investment in technological
 infrastructure is required, extending the transformation period over more
 than a decade. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 201-222 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Technology, Defense R&D, Dynamic optimization, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645100 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645100 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:201-222




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrew James 
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew 
Author-X-Name-Last: James 
Title: THE TRANSATLANTIC DEFENCE R&D GAP: CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES AND CONTROVERSIES 
Abstract:
  This paper describes the huge gap in defence R&D expenditure between the
 United States and Western Europe, considers the causes and consequences of
 this transatlantic defence R&D gap and analyses some of the controversies
 that surround it. The paper notes that concerns about the R&D gap are as
 old as NATO itself and should be placed in the context of wider debates
 about transatlantic burden-sharing. Current efforts to promote European
 cooperation on defence R&D may help Europe to spend more wisely in the
 future but will do little to reduce a transatlantic gap that has at its
 heart profound differences in strategic outlook between the United States
 and Europe. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-238 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defence R&D, Transatlantic relations, NATO, Burden-sharing, European science and technology policy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645134 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645134 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:223-238




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Versailles 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Versailles 
Author-Name: Valerie Merindol 
Author-X-Name-First: Valerie 
Author-X-Name-Last: Merindol 
Title: KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS AND R&D MANAGEMENT: AN INQUIRY INTO THE PROBLEM OF TRANSATLANTIC COMPLEMENTARITIES 
Abstract:
  Innovation is not simply a body of practice but also a body of behaviors,
 a complex frameset of interactions, learning processes and co-evolution
 between actors and institutions. This paper elaborates on the opposition
 between cooperative-learning and competitive-learning situations and on
 three knowledge levels in technology diffusion: technical, systemic and
 strategic. It inquires into some aspects of transatlantic cooperation from
 the perspectives drawn by knowledge-based analyses of R&D management.
 Illustrations are drawn from defense aeronautics (the JSF F-35 fighter jet
 and the F/A 18 fighter attack jet). The paper stresses the importance of
 the emergence of a 'big picture' in S&T policies and delineates the
 strategies associated with knowledge transfers in international
 cooperation among the participants (industry and state) in the programs. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 239-256 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Knowledge, Learning processes, Technology diffusion, International cooperation, Technical change, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645183 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645183 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:239-256




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: R. Wylie 
Author-X-Name-First: R. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wylie 
Author-Name: S. Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Author-Name: P. Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: P. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Title: BIG SCIENCE, SMALL COUNTRY AND THE CHALLENGES OF DEFENCE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT: AN AUSTRALIAN CASE STUDY 
Abstract:
  This paper explores how a small economy, Australia, has sought to balance
 domestic military technologies with leveraging developments in the same
 area of research undertaken by the USA. Like many other small nations,
 Australia aspires to retain enough military sovereignty to pursue key
 national security interests independently of the superpower, if necessary.
 We have used Australia's R&D support for the Jindalee over-the-horizon
 radar network to show how one small nation has attempted to strike a
 desired balance in its technological development with a view to
 maintaining the sovereign capacity to monitor its maritime approaches. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 257-272 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defence research and development, Defence innovation systems: Technology management, Strategic sovereignty, Over-the-horizon radar, Small country defence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645233 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645233 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:257-272




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais 
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais 
Author-Name: Renelle Guichard 
Author-X-Name-First: Renelle 
Author-X-Name-Last: Guichard 
Title: DEFENSE INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS AND PUBLIC POLICY 
Abstract:
  The role of defense in national innovation systems is highly topical,
 because of the complexity of defense systems and the desire to get
 value-for-money from R&D investment, especially through the
 commercialization of defense-funded technology. In practice, external
 transfer has proved to be a difficult, labor-intensive process, which
 requires a strong commitment from both parties. Here, intellectual
 property rights (IPR) appear as a strong incentive for collaboration.
 Analyzing the lack of IPR culture in defense industries elucidates the
 difficulties and failures in spin-off attempts. We finally propose
 strategies leading to a market for defense-born technology. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 273-286 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defense technology, Dual use, Technology transfer, Intellectual property rights, Collaboration, Transaction costs, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600645274 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600645274 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:3:p:273-286




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Title: UNCERTAINTY, RISK AVERSION, AND OPTIMAL DEFENSE AGAINST INTERRUPTIONS IN SUPPLY 
Abstract:
  Recent international conflicts have resurrected concerns about how to
 manage supply disruptions or sudden escalation of need for energy, and
 other critical imports such as vaccines or military components. Prominent
 proactive measures include support of domestic production and accumulation
 of reserves or maintenance of stand-by production. This paper develops a
 clear transparent method for comparing instruments and for identifying the
 optimum policy mix. We show how a country's risk aversion influences the
 best mix of policies and interacts unexpectedly with the degree of risk
 itself. Specifically, high-risk aversion and low risk are shown to favor
 domestic production support as the better defense, and to disfavor
 stockpiling (and vice versa). In clarifying a country's best policy
 response to risks of supply interruption, this analysis predicts how
 income level and risk aversion characteristics should shape arguments for
 and against interference with free trade on grounds of 'national
 security.' 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 287-309 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Stockpiles, Risk Management, Embargo Protection, Risk Aversion, Emergency Preparations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600612688 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600612688 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karen Pittel 
Author-X-Name-First: Karen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pittel 
Author-Name: Dirk Rubbelke 
Author-X-Name-First: Dirk 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rubbelke 
Title: What Directs a Terrorist? 
Abstract:
  Terrorist models often focus on one kind of agent as well as one motive
 to pursue terrorism. Our model diverges from such standard approaches by
 taking account of the reasoning of the terrorist-organization leader as
 well as the reasoning of the individual terrorist. This allows us to
 observe the influence of the leader on the individual terrorist.
 Furthermore, we distinguish different motives that influence the
 individual agent's activities. More precisely, we consider terrorist
 support as an impure public good generating different characteristics.
 Moreover, we allow the leader to influence the individual terrorist's
 activities via different technologies; and finally, we take account of the
 fact that individual terrorists may develop a strong feeling of
 belongingness to the organization. In our framework, it is possible to
 explain why rational terrorists support terrorism and even commit suicide
 attacks. In line with empirical findings, income levels play no decisive
 factor in terrorists' readiness to commit such attacks. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-328 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Impure public goods, Terrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600554914 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600554914 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:311-328




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ana Bela Santos Bravo 
Author-X-Name-First: Ana Bela Santos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bravo 
Author-Name: Carlos Manuel Mendes Dias 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Manuel Mendes 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dias 
Title: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM: DEPRIVATION, ISLAMISM AND GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the number of terrorist attacks and their outcomes in
 the period 1997-2004. We investigate the hypotheses that deprivation is
 the underlying cause of terrorism and that geopolitical contexts cannot be
 ignored. The results from econometric OLS cross-country testing of these
 hypotheses with data for two large regions of Eurasia seem to confirm our
 hypotheses, given that the determinants of terrorism differ in the two
 geopolitical areas and the number of terrorist incidents is negatively
 associated with the level of development, the literacy level and ethnic
 fractionalization, being positively related to mineral reserves,
 non-democratic political regimes and participation in international
 organizations. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 329-341 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Terrorism, Deprivation, Geopolitics, Econometric estimation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500526509 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500526509 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:329-341




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ziv Naor 
Author-X-Name-First: Ziv 
Author-X-Name-Last: Naor 
Title: UNTIMELY DEATH, THE VALUE OF CERTAIN LIFETIME AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS 
Abstract:
  In the past few years, several studies have documented the fact that
 terrorism has a negative impact on economic activity. The present study
 attempts to provide an explanation that rests on two pillars. The first
 pillar expands on Eckstein and Tsiddon (2004) to account explicitly for a
 subjective assessment of the probability of death due to an act of terror;
 the second explicitly accounts for the dissatisfaction that derives from
 untimely death. In the first pillar, individuals estimate the risk of
 death by invoking the cumulative-prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky,
 1992). Since the probability of death in a terrorist attack is low,
 decision weights are higher than the actual probabilities. Needless to
 say, while cumulative-prospect theory governs individuals' behavior, the
 economy is governed by actual probabilities. The second pillar on which
 our explanation rests is the disutility that emerges from an individual's
 untimely and unnatural death. When calibrated, the integration of both
 explanations seems to show that terror has a rather strong impact on
 economic activity, one that may be observed in terror-affected regions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 343-359 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Terror, Growth, Cumulative-prospect-theory, Value-of-life, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600688407 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600688407 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:343-359




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chien-Chiang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Chien-Chiang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Chun-Ping Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Chun-Ping 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Title: THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GDP IN TAIWAN 
Abstract:
  Using the Solow-Swan growth model and the time-trend included in the
 aggregate production function, this study applies the multivariate
 cointegration approach to re-investigate the long-run and causal
 relationships between defence expenditures and GDP while controlling for
 capital and labour input in Taiwan during the 1955-2002 period. It
 examines the long-run causal relationship using the weak exogeneity test
 and utilizes general impulse response functions to determine whether a
 shock to defence expenditures affects economic growth or vice versa. Our
 findings provide substantive evidence in favour of the existence of a
 long-run equilibrium cointegrated relationship between defence
 expenditures, GDP, labour and capital stock. The results of the weak
 exogeneity test indicate that a bi-directional causal relationship exists
 in the long-run between defence expenditures and GDP. Thus, the main
 policy implication that emerges from the long-run results is that
 increasing defence expenditures in Taiwan is an effective means to boost
 overall economic performance and, with this improved economy, it should
 then be able to increase its defence expenditures further. Lastly, from
 our dynamic vector error correction model estimations, it is found that
 defence expenditures are a major means of adjusting for disequilibria that
 occur within the system. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 361-385 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Defence expenditures, Economic growth, Taiwan, Capital stock, Cointegration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600612738 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600612738 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:361-385




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ben Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Ben 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Author-Name: Ugurhan Berkok 
Author-X-Name-First: Ugurhan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berkok 
Title: INTRODUCTION 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 393-394 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888171 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888171 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:393-394




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ross Fetterly 
Author-X-Name-First: Ross 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fetterly 
Title: A REVIEW OF PEACEKEEPING FINANCING METHODS 
Abstract:
  This study examines various methods of financing peacekeeping missions
 and suggests mission funding appropriate to the conflict type and
 location. The financing of peacekeeping missions can take a number of
 forms, of which six mechanisms are examined in this paper. These include
 the traditional United Nations mission, alliance, coalition, independent,
 UN Trust Fund, and resource-tax funded peacekeeping missions. The paper
 also provides a peacekeeping funding table that can be used to assist in
 the determination of the appropriate peacekeeping funding mechanism. A
 case study of peacekeeping financing in Haiti is presented. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 395-411 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Peacekeeping, Finance, Burden sharing, United Nations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888189 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888189 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:395-411




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Louis Parai 
Author-X-Name-First: Louis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Parai 
Title: A NOTE ON THE ECONOMICS OF STANDBY VERSUS STANDING PEACEKEEPING FORCES 
Abstract:
  With UN peacekeeping activities in recent years having become more
 numerous, complex and costly, alternative means of responding to emerging
 crises and conflicts are being proposed and considered, along with their
 financial costs and funding. This paper analyzes the economic costs and
 benefits of recent options from a global resource point of view. It is
 concluded that standby forces provided by Member States to the UN, such as
 the multinational Stand-by Forces High Readiness Brigade for UN Operations
 (SHIRBRIG) and the more recent European Union (EU) Rapid Reaction Force
 (RRF), appear presently to be economically the most efficient means of
 providing UN peacekeeping. Standby forces, acknowledged by the UN as a
 feasible alternative to a UN standing army or police force, are
 economically the most efficient basically because they utilize more fully
 the existing military resources of Member States, rather than require
 major additional new resources for peacekeeping. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 413-419 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Peacekeeping, Standing army, Standby arrangement, United Nations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888197 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888197 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:413-419




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Rostek 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rostek 
Title: DEVELOPING A SURGE CAPACITY FOR CANADIAN FORCES 
Abstract:
  The Canadian Forces (CF) have been experiencing personnel overstretch
 problems with commitments to peace support operations, which have been
 characterized by peaks and valleys with the peaks creating unsustainable
 periods of operation. While the government will not commit to financing
 sufficient capacity to sustain these periods of high operational tempo,
 other ways and means need to be developed in order to preserve human
 capital. Through the application of peak load theory and the joint product
 model, this paper demonstrates how a surge capacity can be developed by
 way of substituting Regular Force personnel for Reserve Force personnel at
 a lower cost. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 421-434 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Overstretch, Personnel, Military, Canadian forces, Peak load theory, Joint product theory, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888205 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888205 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:421-434




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dane Rowlands 
Author-X-Name-First: Dane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rowlands 
Author-Name: David Carment 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Carment 
Title: FORCE AND BIAS: TOWARDS A PREDICTIVE MODEL OF EFFECTIVE THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTION 
Abstract:
  Throughout the 1990s multilateral interventions often deviated
 significantly from traditional peacekeeping in terms of mandate
 complexity, level of force, and the absence of consent and impartiality.
 This paper develops a formal model of biased intervention and specifies
 propositions regarding its effects on combatant behaviour. We find that
 the response to the intervener depends on the how the combatants divide
 their labour resources between production and fighting, the amount of
 resources the intervener transfers between the combatants, and the degree
 to which the intervener's military efforts affect the effectiveness of the
 combatant's military forces. NATO's intervention in Kosovo is then used as
 a case study to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of the model.
 Finally, we identify the theoretical and policy-relevant implications of
 the model and outline directions for future research. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 435-456 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Peacekeeping, Conflict intervention, Biased intervention, Third-party interveners, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888213 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888213 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:435-456




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ross Fetterly 
Author-X-Name-First: Ross 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fetterly 
Title: THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF PEACEKEEPING TROOPS 
Abstract:
  The demand for military personnel in peace support operations (PSOs) has
 been very high for over a decade, compared with demands during the Cold
 War. This increasing demand for military peace support personnel contrasts
 dramatically with the significant decrease in the number of military
 personnel since the end of the Cold War. Indeed, the primary instrument to
 execute tasks assigned to military forces is manpower. The contribution of
 this paper is a survey of different types of PSOs, with the focus on the
 skills and abilities required of military personnel in those operations.
 The key to an effective operation is to select peace support personnel
 with the skills appropriate to that particular mission. This paper is
 divided into three sections, starting with a discussion of the supply and
 demand for military personnel. The paper then reviews different types of
 PSOs and their associated personnel requirements. The final section
 considers a mechanism for matching military personnel to appropriate PSOs. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 457-471 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Peace support operations, United Nations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888221 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888221 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:5:p:457-471




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ugurhan Berkok 
Author-X-Name-First: Ugurhan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berkok 
Title: THIRD-COUNTRY DEMAND FOR PEACEKEEPING 
Abstract:
  A third country's peacekeeping demand typically arises because of a
 conflict spilling over the national boundary, economically and politically
 as well as spatially, from the country in conflict. Economic and
 geographic proximities, as well as the intensity of the original conflict,
 increase the demand for peacekeeping by third countries. Moreover,
 strategic considerations such as free-riding may significantly alter the
 level of overall demand for peacekeeping. Discreteness in military
 technology and leadership by signalling may alleviate the collective
 action problem and increase peacekeeping contributions towards the optimum
 from their simple Nash equilibrium levels. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 473-485 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Peacekeeping demand, Spatial differentiation, Conflict intensity, Peacekeeping as international public good, Contribution equilibrium, Insurance equilibrium, Leadership by signalling, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600888239 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600888239 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Title: MEMORIAL ESSAYS IN HONOR OF JACK HIRSHLEIFER 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 587-588 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025468 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025468 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:587-588




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjell Hausken 
Author-X-Name-First: Kjell 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hausken 
Title: THE STABILITY OF ANARCHY AND BREAKDOWN OF PRODUCTION 
Abstract:
  In Hirshleifer's (1995) model for unitary actors, combined
 fighting/production abruptly breaks down when inter-group decisiveness of
 fighting is above a certain value (above one) or income requirements are
 not met. Accounting for the collective action problem, this article gives
 the opposite result that fighting/production is stable also for large
 decisiveness parameters (above one) and strict income requirements for
 each agent. The stable fighting/production equilibrium gets gradually
 easier to perturb off balance for high inter-group decisiveness, high
 costs of fighting, different fighting efficiencies, and equal group sizes.
 The equilibrium number of groups that can be sustained decreases in the
 inter-group decisiveness and increases in the cost of fighting. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 589-603 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Production, Fighting, Anarchy, Peace, Collective action, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025492 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025492 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:589-603




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Author-Name: Robert Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Robert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Title: DETERRENCE IN THE COLD WAR AND THE 'WAR ON TERROR' 
Abstract:
  We examine how the theory of deterrence differs from a Cold-War type of
 setting to a War-on-Terror type of setting. Our central conclusion is that
 deterrence of terrorist states should resemble Cold War deterrence.
 Deterring terrorist groups is more difficult. In either case, failure of
 deterrence will have far less traumatic consequences than during the Cold
 War, unless we ourselves are overcome by fear. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 605-617 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Terrorism, Cold war, Game theory, Deterence, Rationality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025526 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025526 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:605-617




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Author-Name: Gary Becker 
Author-X-Name-First: Gary 
Author-X-Name-Last: Becker 
Title: REVERSAL OF MISFORTUNE WHEN PROVIDING FOR ADVERSITY 
Abstract:
  Often an economic agent dissatisfied with an endowed distribution of
 utilities desires to optimize this distribution by transferring income or
 resources across individuals or states of the world. This multi-state
 optimization theme recurs in a wide variety of economic contexts, ranging
 across taxation and income distribution, international trade and market
 disruption, labor contracts and unemployment insurance, Rawlsian design of
 social contracts, provision for retirement, and many others. Because
 analyses of such topics are frequently so context driven, the generality
 of this theme seems to have gone unnoticed and, of a particular
 paradoxical result, unappreciated. One example of this paradox is how
 lump-sum distribution in a first best environment will reverse the
 preference rankings of the endowed distribution of utilities - after
 redistribution the originally 'bad' outcomes become preferred to
 originally better ones. Or as another example, if fair insurance is
 available, the rational resource owner will buy so much insurance that the
 otherwise 'bad' contingency becomes preferred. This paper examines the
 underlying structure common to such contexts. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 619-643 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Provision for adversity, Insurance, Income redistribution, Retirement, Trade interruption, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025559 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025559 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:619-643




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: HIRSHLEIFER'S SOCIAL COMPOSITION FUNCTION IN DEFENSE ECONOMICS 
Abstract:
  This article displays the importance and richness of Hirshleifer's social
 composition function in public good applications, particularly those in
 defense economics. This function indicates how individual contributions to
 the public good combine to determine the overall level of the good that is
 available for consumption. As such, the concept indicates the aggregation
 technology of public supply. Applications of this 'aggregator' notion
 include alliance burden sharing, counter-terrorism policy, and curbing
 weapon proliferation. For these applications, the article shows how
 alternate aggregators can have profoundly different collective action and
 policy implications. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 645-655 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Public goods, Collective action, Social composition function, Alliances, Counterterrorism, Weakest link, Best shot, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025583 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025583 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:645-655




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stergios Skaperdas 
Author-X-Name-First: Stergios 
Author-X-Name-Last: Skaperdas 
Title: BARGAINING VERSUS FIGHTING 
Abstract:
  I examine the determinants of conflict and settlement by embedding
 probabilistic contests in a bargaining framework. Different costly
 enforcement efforts (e.g. arming, litigation expenditures) induce
 different disagreement points and Pareto frontiers. After examining the
 incentives for settlement, I demonstrate how different division rules and
 bargaining norms have real, economic effects. I then analyze some sources
 of conflict. I emphasize long-term, strategic considerations by examining
 an illustrative model and discussing particular historical examples. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 657-676 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Conflict, Negotiation, War, Settlement, Litigation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025617 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025617 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:657-676




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gordon Tullock 
Author-X-Name-First: Gordon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tullock 
Title: THE BALANCE OF POWER: ESSENTIAL OR INESSENTIAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER? 
Abstract:
  On the basis of the historical record of power relationships among
 countries, reaching back to antiquity, as surveyed in this paper record,
 it rather looks as if the balance of power among states is basically an
 exceptional phenomenon, although sometimes it lasted a long time. The
 present situation in which the world is dominated by one non-aggressive
 power certainly looks at least as exceptional. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 677-680 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
Keywords: Conflict, Alliances, Balance of power, Political economy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025666 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025666 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:677-680




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Wolf 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolf 
Title: KOREAN REUNIFICATION: HOW IT MIGHT COME ABOUT AND AT WHAT COST 
Abstract:
  This paper considers three broad scenarios for Korean reunification.
 These are reunification through system evolution and adaptation, through
 collapse and absorption and through conflict. A simulation model is used
 to estimate the costs of Korean reunification, which span a range between
 $50 billion and $700 billion, and a median estimate between $330 billion
 and $350 billion, about $60-70 billion per annum over five years. Various
 ways of distributing these investment costs are outlined and the likely
 benefits of reunification are also assessed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 681-690 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 17 
Year: 2006 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601025690 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601025690 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:6:p:681-690




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Nikolaos Mylonidis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mylonidis 
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologou 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologou 
Title: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 
Abstract:
  The nexus between economic growth and military expenditure has attracted
 considerable attention and has been the subject of extensive theoretical
 and empirical work. Given the move towards the development of a Common
 European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP), this paper, using panel data
 analysis, addresses the causal ordering issue between growth and defence
 spending in the case of the European Union (EU15). Results reported herein
 suggest the presence of a positive feedback between growth and military
 expenditure in the long run and a positive impact of the latter on growth
 in the short run. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 75-85 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Growth, Panel data, Causality, European Union, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600722636 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600722636 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:75-85




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Linda Andersson 
Author-X-Name-First: Linda 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andersson 
Author-Name: Johan Lundberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Johan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lundberg 
Author-Name: Magnus Sjostrom 
Author-X-Name-First: Magnus 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sjostrom 
Title: REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MILITARY BASE CLOSURES: THE CASE OF SWEDEN 
Abstract:
  The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional effects of military
 base closures in Sweden during the last decades. Our analysis is based on
 a regional growth model, where two equations are estimated; one equation
 describing the average income growth rate and one equation describing the
 net migration rate. The data set is a panel of 31 Swedish municipalities
 covering the period 1983-1998. Our main finding is that a closure of a
 military base has not had any significant impact on the subsequent average
 income growth rate nor the net migration rate in the affected
 municipalities. One potential explanation for these results relates to the
 labour market and the composition of the labour force. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 87-97 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Military base closures, Regional income growth, Migration, Panel data, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924638 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924638 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:87-97




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: BOOK REVIEW 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 99-100 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924182 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924182 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:99-100




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Malcolm Chalmers 
Author-X-Name-First: Malcolm 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chalmers 
Title: SPENDING TO SAVE? THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CONFLICT PREVENTION 
Abstract:
  While the general argument that it is easier and more cost-effective to
 prevent conflicts before the outbreak of violence has considerable
 attraction, a rigorous approach to estimating the cost and benefits of
 this policy is still lacking. The objective of this study is to contribute
 to the development of such an approach. The project involves six case
 studies, three retrospective (the Western Balkans, Afghanistan, and
 Rwanda) and three prospective (Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and southern
 Sudan). Its main conclusion is that targeted programmes of conflict
 prevention are (or would have been) significantly cheaper than cure. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-23 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Conflict, conflict prevention, costs of conflict, fragile states, civil war, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600821693 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600821693 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:1-23




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Philip Pugh 
Author-X-Name-First: Philip 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pugh 
Title: RETROSPECT AND PROSPECT: TRENDS IN COST AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR UK AEROSPACE 
Abstract:
  This paper, intended to stimulate debate, suggests that we are at a
 turning point in the history of the UK military aerospace industry. It
 argues that there is urgent need for a fresh vision as to how the UK
 military aerospace industry can both prosper and make its maximum
 contribution to the defence of Britain. Further, the resulting plans and
 policies must emphasise the robustness of defence capabilities in a future
 in which the only thing we can be certain is that it will be very
 different from the present - especially whenever defence most matters. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 25-37 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Cost escalation, Cost growth, UK defence policy, Aerospace industry, Combat aircraft, Helicopters, Demonstrator programmes, Cost forecasting, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600900505 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600900505 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:25-37




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rabia Aslam 
Author-X-Name-First: Rabia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam 
Title: MEASURING THE PEACE DIVIDEND: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING ECONOMIES 
Abstract:
  The paper attempts to trace the nexus between defense spending and
 economic growth in developing countries, using data for 59 developing
 countries from 1972-2000. The purpose is to measure the opportunity costs
 of defense spending mainly in terms of alternative public programs. The
 correlation of social sector expenditures with growth rate as well as the
 extent of correlation between social and defense sector spending is not
 clear in the majority of developing countries. It follows that even if
 defense spending is reduced, the prospects for a peace dividend in the
 aftermath of the Cold War might be inhibited by political interests that
 oppose increases in social sector expenditures. If so, defense cutbacks
 might not lead to a welfare windfall as is generally presumed.
 Accordingly, this paper tests whether a defense spending cutback will
 enhance funding for other public programs and whether such a reallocation
 of resources will prove to be beneficial for the long-term growth rate of
 the economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 39-52 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Peace dividend, Military Expenditures, Growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924620 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924620 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:39-52




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Asteris 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Asteris 
Author-Name: Jeffery Grainger 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffery 
Author-X-Name-Last: Grainger 
Author-Name: David Clark 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Clark 
Author-Name: Shabbar Jaffry 
Author-X-Name-First: Shabbar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffry 
Title: ANALYSING DEFENCE DEPENDENCY: THE IMPACT OF THE ROYAL NAVY ON A SUB-REGIONAL ECONOMY 
Abstract:
  This paper provides a methodology for estimating the economic impact of
 defence spending at a sub-regional level. It does so by calculating the
 income and employment generated by Britain's Royal Navy and associated
 defence activities in the City of Portsmouth and its surrounding area,
 during the financial year 2003-2004. In an era of military consolidation,
 the paper offers an insight into the multifaceted impact of
 defence-related expenditure. Hence, it presents a generic framework that
 could prove useful to other researchers when seeking to measure the
 sub-regional impact of naval, airforce and army facilities in other
 national contexts. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 53-73 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Sub-regional defence dependency, Defence economics, Input-output analysis, Maritime defence expenditure, Royal Navy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600688563 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600688563 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:1:p:53-73




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yang-Ming Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Yang-Ming 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Joel Potter 
Author-X-Name-First: Joel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Potter 
Author-Name: Shane Sanders 
Author-X-Name-First: Shane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanders 
Title: THE FATE OF DISPUTED TERRITORIES: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a simple model to characterize the outcome of a land
 dispute between two rival parties using a Stackelberg game. Unlike
 Gershenson and Grossman (2000), we assume that the opposing parties have
 access to different technologies for challenging and defending in
 conflict. We derive the conditions under which territorial conflict
 between the two parties is less likely to persist indefinitely. Allowing
 for an exogenous destruction term as in Garfinkel and Skaperdas (2000), we
 show that, when the nature of conflict becomes more destructive, the
 likelihood of a peaceful outcome, in which the territory's initial
 possessor deters the challenging party, increases if the initial possessor
 holds more intrinsic value for the disputed land. Following Siqueira
 (2003), our model has policy implications for peace through third-party
 intervention. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 183-200 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Disputed territories, Conflict, Arming, Deterrence, War, Peace, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600853373 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600853373 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:183-200




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ian Bellany 
Author-X-Name-First: Ian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellany 
Title: TERRORISM: FACTS FROM FIGURES 
Abstract:
  If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of
 confirmation or refutation of this is time-series data on terrorist
 activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show
 using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968-2005 the yearly
 number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time,
 but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some
 indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise
 in the number of incidents that are death-dealing in nature. A further
 conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents
 leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 101-112 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Terrorism, data, trends, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601143436 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601143436 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:101-112




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Claude Berrebi 
Author-X-Name-First: Claude 
Author-X-Name-Last: Berrebi 
Author-Name: Darius Lakdawalla 
Author-X-Name-First: Darius 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lakdawalla 
Title: HOW DOES TERRORISM RISK VARY ACROSS SPACE AND TIME? AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ISRAELI EXPERIENCE 
Abstract:
  We study the spatial and temporal determinants of terrorism risk in
 Israel, using a geocoded database of Israeli terrorist attacks from 1949
 to 2004. In selecting targets, terrorists seem to respond rationally to
 costs and benefits: they are more likely to hit targets more accessible
 from their own homebases and international borders, closer to symbolic
 centers of government administration, and in more heavily Jewish areas. We
 also examine the waiting time between attacks experienced by localities.
 Long periods without an attack signal lower risk for most localities, but
 higher risk for important areas such as regional or national capitals. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 113-131 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Terrorism risk, Spatial, Temporal, Israel, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600863935 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600863935 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:113-131




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oren Setter 
Author-X-Name-First: Oren 
Author-X-Name-Last: Setter 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: THEORY AND APPLICATION TO THE US MILITARY 
Abstract:
  An ever-growing share of defence R&D expenditures is being dedicated to
 the development and fielding of integrative technologies that enable
 separate individual systems to work in a coordinated and synergistic
 fashion as a single system. This study explores the optimal defence budget
 allocation to the development and acquisition of weapon systems and to the
 development of integrative technologies. We develop a suitable
 optimization framework, and then use it to derive the optimal budget
 allocation and analyse its properties. Finally, we use US defence budget
 data to calibrate the parameters of the model and provide a quantitative
 measure for the apparent US military supremacy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 133-155 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Research and Development, Integrative technologies, Budget allocation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600797273 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600797273 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:133-155




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jomana Amara 
Author-X-Name-First: Jomana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Amara 
Title: EVALUATING NATO LONG RUN DEFENSE BURDENS USING UNIT ROOT TESTS 
Abstract:
  This study evaluates NATO long run defense burdens by analyzing the
 time-series properties of burden measures, namely growth of defense
 spending, defense share in national output, defense share in government
 spending, defense spending per capita, and defense share in total NATO
 spending for the time period 1949-2002. The study also compares the effect
 of using government Purchasing Power Parity conversion factors and Market
 Exchange Rates for defense share in total NATO expenditure conversions and
 the implications of NATO expansion in light of the defense burden measures
 of the newer NATO members. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 157-181 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: DF-GLS, NATO, Defense Burden, Time Series, Purchasing Power Parity, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600789254 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600789254 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:2:p:157-181




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amilcar Andres Pelaez 
Author-X-Name-First: Amilcar Andres 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pelaez 
Title: COUNTRY SURVEY XX: DEFENCE SPENDING AND PEACEKEEPING IN URUGUAY 
Abstract:
  Uruguay is a country with a very unusual profile, since it has just 3.4
 million inhabitants but is among the top ten troop contributors to the UN
 PKO (Peace Keeping Operations) and is the first contributor per capita. In
 2002 and 2003 it was the seventh troop contributor to the UN, and by the
 end of 2005 it was eighth in the UN ranking. Uruguay has never had any
 imminent external threat to its security after its independence in 1828,
 and it has had no internal threat since the end of the urban guerrillas'
 actions in the 1970s. The country has no defence industry, and has always
 had an all-volunteer military service, which presently involves almost 1%
 of the total population, and about 2% of the labour force. The empirical
 evidence presented in this paper shows that, in the past decades,
 Uruguayan defence spending has been influenced mainly by internal factors,
 most of them of an economic nature. The high participation in PKO has not
 increased military expenditure and it has produced a positive impact on
 the country's economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 281-302 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Uruguay, Mercosur, South America, Defence Spending, Peacekeeping, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924679 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924679 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:281-302




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Maria del Carmen Garcia-Alonso 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria del Carmen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garcia-Alonso 
Author-Name: Paul Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: DETERMINING THE DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL BASE 
Abstract:
  This paper models the determination of the defence industrial base - the
 number of different military systems a country decides to maintain. High
 R&D costs means that few countries can afford to produce major weapons
 systems and the producers also import systems. Non-producers rely on
 imports and we assume their demand is driven by regional arms races.
 Military capability is determined by the number of systems and the
 quantity and quality of each. We examine how the defence industrial base
 is influenced by military expenditures, R&D costs, export controls, the
 nature of regional arms races and a variety of other factors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 199-221 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Defence industrial base, Military procurement, Market structure, Arms trade, Arms races, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924273 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924273 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:199-221




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeffrey S. Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Author-Name: Michael McKee 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: McKee 
Title: 'PEOPLE OR PRAIRIE CHICKENS' REVISITED: STATED PREFERENCES WITH EXPLICIT NON-MARKET TRADE-OFFS 
Abstract:
  Urban sprawl has led to increasing prevalence of endangered species on
 military training facilities throughout the United States. Provisions of
 the Endangered Species Act imply encroachment interrupts military training
 activities and may affect military readiness. Endangered species
 protection and military training are competing non-market goods. This
 paper reports the estimates of public valuation of military training
 activities incorporating explicit trade-offs associated with endangered
 species protection. Our results suggest the public is willing to pay to
 alleviate conflicts between endangered species and the military. The
 public values for continued survival of endangered species approximately
 equal those for military readiness. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-244 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Encroachment, Choice modeling, Mixed logit, Military readiness, Endangered species, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600924661 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600924661 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:223-244




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bruno S. Frey 
Author-X-Name-First: Bruno S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Frey 
Author-Name: Dominic Rohner 
Author-X-Name-First: Dominic 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rohner 
Title: PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM 
Abstract:
  Famous cultural monuments are often regarded as unique icons, making them
 an attractive target for terrorists. Despite huge military and police
 outlays, terrorist attacks on important monuments can hardly be avoided.
 We argue that an effective strategy to discourage terrorist attacks on
 iconic monuments is for a government to show a firm commitment to swift
 reconstruction. Using a simple game-theoretic model, we demonstrate how a
 credible claim to rebuild any destroyed cultural monument discourages
 terrorist attacks by altering the terrorists' expectations and by
 increasing the government's reputation costs if they fail to rebuild. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 245-252 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Terrorism, Culture, Monuments, Counter-terrorism, Deterrence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600951664 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600951664 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:245-252




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Prabal Roy Chowdhury 
Author-X-Name-First: Prabal Roy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chowdhury 
Title: ALLIANCES AMONG ASYMMETRIC COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
  We examine alliances between asymmetric countries. We find that the
 results depend on the nature of the equilibrium. If the equilibrium is an
 interior one then, with an increase in asymmetry, the level of the
 alliance-wide defense good decreases and the divergence between the first
 best and the equilibrium level of the defense good increases. In the case
 where the equilibrium involves a corner solution, these results are
 reversed. It may be argued, however, that the interior equilibrium case is
 the more relevant one. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 253-263 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Alliance, Asymmetry, Public good, Defence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600925213 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600925213 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:253-263




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chien-Chiang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Chien-Chiang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Sheng-Tung Chen 
Author-X-Name-First: Sheng-Tung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen 
Title: DO DEFENCE EXPENDITURES SPUR GDP? A PANEL ANALYSIS FROM OECD AND NON-OECD COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
  This paper empirically re-examines the long-run co-movements and the
 causal relationships between GDP and defence expenditures in a
 multivariate model with real defence expenditure per capita (ME), real GDP
 per capita (GDP), and real capital stock per capita (K). We apply the view
 of the aggregate production function to construct the empirical model.
 Using up-to-date data for 27 OECD countries and 62 non-OECD countries for
 the 1988-2003 period, we combine cross-sectional and time series data to
 re-investigate the relationship between GDP and ME. Previous studies using
 time series data may have yielded misleading results on account of the
 short time span of typical datasets. By contrast, we use recently
 developed panel unit root tests and heterogeneous panel cointegration
 tests, and conclude that there is fairly strong evidence in favour of the
 hypothesis of a long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and ME. The
 long-run panel regression parameter results, such as the fully modified
 OLS, indicate that a positive relationship between GDP and ME only holds
 for OECD countries, whereas a negative relationship from ME to GDP only
 exists in non-OECD countries under examination and in the panel as a
 whole. Furthermore, by implementing the dynamic panel-based error
 correction model, we determine that GDP and ME lack short-run causalities,
 but do show long-run bidirectional causalities in both OECD and non-OECD
 countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 265-280 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Defence expenditure, GDP, Panel cointegration, Causality relationship, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690500452706 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690500452706 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:3:p:265-280




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paresh Kumar Narayan 
Author-X-Name-First: Paresh Kumar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Narayan 
Author-Name: Baljeet Singh 
Author-X-Name-First: Baljeet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Singh 
Title: MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENSE SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR THE FIJI ISLANDS 
Abstract:
  The goal of this paper is to examine the nexus between GDP and military
 expenditure. We model this relationship within a multivariate framework by
 including exports in the model. We use the recently developed bounds
 testing approach to cointegration and find that there is a long run
 relationship among the variables when GDP is the endogenous variable.
 Normalizing on GDP and using four different estimators, we find that in
 the long run both military expenditure and exports have a positive impact
 on GDP. Finally, using the Granger causality test, we find that there is
 evidence for military expenditure Granger causing exports and exports
 Granger causing GDP, implying that military expenditure indirectly Granger
 causes GDP in the short run. In the long run, we find that both military
 expenditure and exports Granger cause GDP for Fiji. Our findings are
 consistent with the Keynesian school of thought, leading us to derive some
 policy implications. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 391-401 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Fiji, Bounds test for cointegration, Granger causality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600807924 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600807924 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:391-401




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Joanne Evans 
Author-X-Name-First: Joanne 
Author-X-Name-Last: Evans 
Author-Name: Eleftherios Goulas 
Author-X-Name-First: Eleftherios 
Author-X-Name-Last: Goulas 
Author-Name: Paul Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND MIGRATION IN EUROPE 
Abstract:
  The enlargement of the EU has implications for the national defence
 requirements and therefore national defence policy of European nations. In
 light of the freedom of movement of citizens between member states it is
 appropriate to consider the implications of a country's military
 expenditure for its macroeconomy and specifically on the flows of
 migration between member states. Traditionally, income differentials,
 employment levels and relative standards of living are all factors that
 influence an individual's decision to migrate. To this list we add the
 level of military expenditure. Migration from a panel of 16 Central and
 Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to Germany between 1995 and 2002 is
 found to be the result of the level of military expenditure of the source
 country and the host country in conjunction with factors consistent with
 standard theoretical predictions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 305-316 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: European enlargement, Migration, Military expenditure, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601070514 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601070514 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:305-316




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel Yakovlev 
Author-X-Name-First: Pavel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yakovlev 
Title: ARMS TRADE, MILITARY SPENDING, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 
Abstract:
  There is a large literature on the relationship between economic growth
 and defense spending, but its findings are often contradictory and
 inconclusive. These results may be partly due to non-linear growth effects
 of military expenditure and incorrect model specifications. The literature
 also appears lacking an empirical analysis of interaction between military
 spending and the arms trade and the impact of these two on growth. This
 paper investigates this non-linear interaction in the context of the Solow
 and Barro growth models recommended by Dunne et al.1 (2005). Using fixed
 effects, random effects, and Arellano-Bond GMM estimators, I examine the
 growth effects of military expenditure, arms trade, and their interaction
 in a balanced panel of 28 countries during 1965-2000. The augmented Solow
 growth model specified in Dunne et al. (2005) yields more robust estimates
 than the reformulated Barro model. I find that higher military spending
 and net arms exports separately lead to lower economic growth, but higher
 military spending is less detrimental to growth when a country is a net
 arms exporter. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-338 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Arms trade, Defense spending, Military expenditure, Economic growth, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601099679 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601099679 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:317-338




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amnon Levy 
Author-X-Name-First: Amnon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levy 
Author-Name: Joao Ricardo Faria 
Author-X-Name-First: Joao Ricardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria 
Title: RAMSEY IN DUAL-POPULATION LANDS: INTERNAL CONFLICT AND UTILITY-MAXIMIZING CONSUMPTION 
Abstract:
  Ramsey's model is extended to three possible scenarios of conflicts in
 dual-population lands: partition, federation and civil war. The federally
 utility-maximizing consumption-growth rate in a strictly political
 federation might be lower than that under partition for the wealthier and
 more slowly multiplying group. This group may benefit from joining a
 federation that facilitates technological transfer and from obeying the
 federal no-arbitrage rule as long as its own technology is inferior to the
 hybrid. The utility-maximizing consumption growth rate for a group engaged
 in a civil war is larger than those under partition and a strictly
 political federation if its rival's warfare is mainly aimed at inflicting
 casualties and is likely to be smaller when its rival's warfare is mainly
 sabotage. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 339-352 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Internal conflict, Partition, Federation, Civil war, Utility-maximizing consumption, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600951698 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600951698 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:339-352




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd A. Watkins 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Watkins 
Title: DO WORKFORCE AND ORGANIZATIONAL PRACTICES EXPLAIN THE MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY IMPLEMENTATION ADVANTAGE OF SMALL DEFENSE CONTRACTORS OVER NON-DEFENSE ESTABLISHMENTS? 
Abstract:
  This paper explores whether defense contractors' manufacturing technology
 advantages over purely commercial firms might be associated with
 differences in their workforce and organizational practices. It uses
 unique original data collected specifically to test workforce and
 organizational complementarities in implementation of advanced
 manufacturing technology in small manufacturers. Findings are that defense
 contractors: (1) have higher and deeper rates of advanced manufacturing
 technology use; (2) have greater perceived success in achieving
 manufacturing goals; (3) are more likely practitioners across a diverse
 spectrum of advanced workforce and organizational practices. Then, (4)
 econometrically, the defense contractors' higher reported levels of
 achievement in implementing advanced manufacturing technologies are
 positively associated with those organizational and workforce practice
 differences. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 353-375 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Defense industry, Manufacturing technology, Technology adoption, Workforce organization, Labor management, Survey data, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600969146 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600969146 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:353-375




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Bulent Erdinc 
Author-X-Name-First: Bulent 
Author-X-Name-Last: Erdinc 
Title: THE RE-ENLISTMENT DECISION IN TURKEY: A MILITARY PERSONNEL SUPPLY MODEL 
Abstract:
  The new strategic environment that was created with the end of the Cold
 War, led many European countries to abolish conscription and adopt an all
 volunteer force (AVF). Even though it is not likely for the Turkish Armed
 Forces to adopt an AVF in the near future, the issue has been in the
 official documents of the Turkish Armed Forces since the 1990s. Thus,
 efforts have been made by all services to increase the ratio of
 professional officers. One possible way of achieving this is the
 re-enlistment of present recruits. This paper examines the possible
 economic and socio-economic determinants of the re-enlistment decision of
 recruits for Turkey's Armed Forces. The empirical findings indicate that
 the geographical background as well as economic welfare is influential in
 the re-enlistment decision. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 377-389 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Conscription: All volunteer force, Multinomial logistic analysis, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690600951649 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690600951649 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:4:p:377-389




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: INTRODUCTION: THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS OF STATE TERRORISM, DEFENCE SPENDING, WARS AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 403-404 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701455409 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701455409 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:5:p:403-404




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emizet Kisangani 
Author-X-Name-First: Emizet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kisangani 
Author-Name: E. Wayne Nafziger 
Author-X-Name-First: E. Wayne 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nafziger 
Title: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF STATE TERROR 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes factors contributing to terrorism, using its initial
 meaning from the French Revolution in which the state is the terrorist.
 The independent economic variables are mineral exports/GDP, military
 expenditures/GDP, real GDP growth, real per capita GDP, and population
 density, and the dependent variable is democide, the murder of people by
 government. Analysis of the data indicates that mineral exports and poor
 economic performance (both level and growth of income) increase the
 probability of democides. However, once regime type (democracy) is
 controlled for, only mineral exports remain statistically robust.
 Therefore, the control of rents seems to be a major factor contributing to
 democides. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 405-414 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Democide, Terror, Rent seeking, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701455433 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701455433 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:5:p:405-414




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Solomon Polachek 
Author-X-Name-First: Solomon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Polachek 
Author-Name: Carlos Seiglie 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Seiglie 
Author-Name: Jun Xiang 
Author-X-Name-First: Jun 
Author-X-Name-Last: Xiang 
Title: THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper extends the analysis of the conflict-trade relationship by
 introducing foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a formal model
 that shows why FDI can improve international relations. We then proceed to
 test the model empirically. Our empirical results show that foreign direct
 investment plays a similar role to trade in affecting international
 interactions. More specifically, we find that the flow of FDI has reduced
 the degree of international conflict and encouraged co-operation between
 dyads during the period of the late 1980s and the decade of the 1990s.
 This is an especially important result since one of the main
 characteristics of globalization has been the reduction of barriers to
 international capital flows and, as a consequence, the amounts of capital
 flows have expanded enormously dwarfing those of trade flows. The policy
 implication of our finding is that further international co-operation in
 reducing barriers to capital flows can promote a more peaceful world. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 415-429 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701455474 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701455474 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:18:y:2007:i:5:p:415-429




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James K. Galbraith 
Author-X-Name-First: James K. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Galbraith 
Author-Name: Corwin Priest 
Author-X-Name-First: Corwin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Priest 
Author-Name: George Purcell 
Author-X-Name-First: George 
Author-X-Name-Last: Purcell 
Title: ECONOMIC EQUALITY AND VICTORY IN WAR: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION 
Abstract:
  This paper tests a simple hypothesis: that given the occurrence of war
 between two countries, the country that is more egalitarian at the moment
 of military decision is likely to emerge the victor. First, we examine
 cases where comparative economic inequality can be measured directly,
 using the nearly comprehensive global datasets of the University of Texas
 Inequality Project for the years 1963-1999. Second, we examine cases where
 reasonable inferences about comparative economic inequality may be drawn
 by analogy to UTIP measurements or from other political and economic
 evidence, including both bi-national wars and larger wars where there
 existed clear pair-wise fronts. Third, we discuss selected cases where
 inferences may be drawn from literary or historical sources. We find, all
 in all, that the evidence for an egalitarian victory proposition is
 remarkably strong. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 431-449 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701455482 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701455482 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Neal Wagner 
Author-X-Name-First: Neal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wagner 
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: USING DYNAMIC FORECASTING GENETIC PROGRAMMING (DFGP) TO FORECAST UNITED STATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (US GDP) WITH MILITARY EXPENDITURE AS AN EXPLANATORY VARIABLE 
Abstract:
  Classic time-series forecasting models can be divided into exponential
 smoothing, regression, ARIMA, threshold, and GARCH models. Functional form
 is investigator-specified, and all methods assume that the data generation
 process across all segments of the examined time-series is constant. In
 contrast, the aim of heuristic methods is to automate the discovery of
 functional form and permit different segments of a time-series to stem
 from different underlying data generation processes. These methods are
 categorized into those based on neural networks (NN) and those based on
 evolutionary computation, the latter further divided into genetic
 algorithms (GA), evolutionary programming (EP), and genetic programming
 (GP). However, the duration of the time-series itself is still
 investigator determined. This paper uses a dynamic forecasting version of
 GP (DFGP), where even the length of the time-series is automatically
 discovered. The method is applied to an examination of US GDP that
 includes military expenditure among its determinants and is compared to a
 regression-based forecast. We find that DFGP and a regression-based
 forecast yield comparable results but with the significant proviso that
 DFGP does not make any prior assumption about functional form or the
 time-span from which forecasts are produced. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 451-466 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701455508 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701455508 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND INEQUALITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM GLOBAL DATA 
Abstract:
  A substantial body of literature has uncovered a robust relationship
 between institutions including unionization and political democracy and
 economic inequality. This paper examines the effect of military spending
 on inequality, controlling for the size of the armed forces, GDP growth,
 per capita income, and other possible determinants. Using a panel
 regression with country level observations from 1987-1997, we obtained
 consistent estimates that there is a positive effect of military
 expenditure on pay inequality. This relationship is robust across variable
 definitions and model specifications. Given the close relationship between
 pay and income, this result suggests that a country's increases in
 military spending could increase income inequality. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 519-535 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Military spending, Inequality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701331501 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701331501 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chien-Chiang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Chien-Chiang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Sheng-Tung Chen 
Author-X-Name-First: Sheng-Tung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen 
Title: NON-LINEARITY IN THE DEFENCE EXPENDITURE - ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN TAIWAN 
Abstract:
  To gain better insight into the debate concerning the relationship
 between defence expenditure and economic growth, this paper empirically
 applies Hansen's (1996) threshold regression model to examine the
 threshold effect between the two variables. Allowing defence expenditure
 to have a non-linear effect sheds considerable new light on the
 characteristics of the defence-growth link. The single subject, Taiwan, is
 tested using both a neoclassical one-sector aggregate production function
 model and Feder's (1982) two-sector production function model over the
 1960 to 2002 period. The empirical analysis indicates that the threshold
 effect strongly exists in 1973 and 1982 coinciding with the occurrence of
 two energy crises, and the non-linear relationship is solidly supported
 with both models. While positive externalities seem to prevail for
 moderate levels of defence spending, the positive effect of defence
 expenditure on economic growth disappears when the level is relatively
 large. Thus, only when defence expenditure is small, does the Benoit
 hypothesis hold. It is demonstrated that a threshold regression provides a
 far superior empirical model than the standard linear model. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 537-555 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Defence expenditure, Economic growth, Non-linearity, Threshold regression model, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690601055762 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690601055762 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jhy-Yuan Shieh 
Author-X-Name-First: Jhy-Yuan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shieh 
Author-Name: Wen-Ya Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Wen-Ya 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Ching-Chong Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Ching-Chong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Title: AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL OF CAPITAL AND ARMS ACCUMULATION 
Abstract:
  This paper attempts to examine the effect of an anticipated foreign
 military threat on the steady-state growth rate and the transitional
 behavior of the economy. The modeling strategy follows the Sandler and
 Hartley (1995) and Dunne et al. (2005) viewpoints to emphasize the role of
 national defense in affecting growth from the perspective of both the
 demand and the supply sides. We thus combine the public capital version of
 endogenous growth with a framework of competitive arms accumulation. It is
 found that the key factor determining the steady state and the
 transitional effects of a rise in the foreign military threat on the home
 weapon-capital ratio, the consumption-capital ratio, and the rate of
 economic growth, is the degree of relative risk aversion. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 557-575 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Anticipated foreign military threat, Endogenous growth, Capital and arms accumulation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701261658 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701261658 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dimitris Hatzinikolaou 
Author-X-Name-First: Dimitris 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hatzinikolaou 
Title: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A COMMENT 
Abstract:
  In a recent paper of this journal (Vol. 18(1), 2007, pp. 75-85)],
 Kollias, Mylonidis, and Paleologou (henceforth KMP) examined the
 relationship between the GDP growth rate (denoted as gdp) and military
 expenditure as a share of GDP (denoted as milex) using panel data from the
 15 countries of the European Union (EU15), 1961-2000 (T=40 annual
 observations from each country). Given that a Common European Security and
 Defence Policy (CESDP) is under consideration in the EU15 group, this is
 an interesting paper. My comments relate to its econometrics and are
 organized according to the standard three stages of econometric analysis:
 specification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 577-579 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701516804 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701516804 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Nikolaos Mylonidis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mylonidis 
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologou 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologou 
Title: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF THE NEXUS BETWEEN DEFENCE SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A REPLY 
Abstract:
  Hatzinikolaou raises a number of issues related mainly to the
 econometrics of our paper. These issues are categorized according to the
 three stages of econometric analysis: specification, estimation, and
 diagnostic checking. We categorize our reply to his comments accordingly. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 581-583 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701516853 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701516853 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gil Epstein 
Author-X-Name-First: Gil 
Author-X-Name-Last: Epstein 
Author-Name: Ira Gang 
Author-X-Name-First: Ira 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gang 
Title: WHO IS THE ENEMY? 
Abstract:
  We examine who benefits when there is a strong leader in place, and who
 benefits when a situation lacks a proper leader. There are fractious
 terrorist groups who seek to serve the same people in common cause against
 a common enemy. The groups compete for rents obtained from the public by
 engaging in actions against the common enemy. We determine the leadership
 structure under which each group is better off, as well as the
 circumstance that the common enemy prefers. We are able to state simple
 and general conditions for each group and the common enemy to benefit. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 469-484 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Terrorism, Rent-seeking, All-pay auction, Lottery, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701331485 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701331485 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shirley Ho 
Author-X-Name-First: Shirley 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ho 
Title: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MILITARY INTELLIGENCE 
Abstract:
  The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of military
 intelligence by using the approach in contract theory to understand when a
 spy will be hired by a country, why a spy will defect, and how the enemy
 can use a double agent to fight back. Most importantly, we will provide
 four solutions to this defection problem in a spy contract using related
 discussions in the economic literature. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 485-493 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Spies, Double agents, Defection, Military intelligence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701197571 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701197571 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Author-Name: Isabel Proenca 
Author-X-Name-First: Isabel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Proenca 
Author-Name: Joao Ricardo Faria 
Author-X-Name-First: Joao Ricardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria 
Author-Name: Luis Gil-Alana 
Author-X-Name-First: Luis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gil-Alana 
Title: ARE USA CITIZENS AT RISK OF TERRORISM IN EUROPE? 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes the determinants of the probability of US citizens
 being victims of terrorist attacks in European countries, taking into
 account uncontrolled heterogeneity of the data. The analysis employs
 ITERATE data from February 1968 to December 2002 to ascertain significant
 characteristics that influence the probability (e.g. location, type of
 casualties, type of attack, and type of terrorists). To deal with the
 unobserved heterogeneity a random-parameter logit model (mixed logit) is
 used. Some policy implications are presented. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 495-507 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Terrorism, Mixed Logit model, Public policy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701197605 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701197605 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mark van de Vijver 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark 
Author-X-Name-Last: van de Vijver 
Author-Name: Bart Vos 
Author-X-Name-First: Bart 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vos 
Title: IMPROVING COMPETITIVE POSITIONING IN THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY: A CASE STUDY OF DUTCH PARTICIPATION IN THE F-35 LIGHTNING II (JSF) PROGRAMME 
Abstract:
  In Defence and Peace Economics, Volume 17 (2006), we reported the interim
 results of our study on the economic effects for the Dutch aerospace
 industry of participation in the development and production phases of the
 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programme (recently been renamed as the
 F-35 Lightning II). This article is based on recent data from interviews
 with Dutch industry, conducted in 2006. The main contributions, compared
 with our interim results, are: (1) a more reliable estimation of expected
 turnover and employment effects; (2) numerous examples of knowledge
 development by participation in the F-35 programme; and (3) the
 perspectives of the main contractors - Lockheed Martin, Pratt & Whitney
 and Rolls-Royce - on knowledge development by Dutch companies. Our results
 indicate that Dutch participation in the F-35 programme contributes to a
 substantial increase in turnover, knowledge-intensive employment, powerful
 technological development and an improved long-term positioning in the
 global aerospace industry. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 509-517 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 18 
Year: 2007 
Keywords: Aerospace, F-35 Joint Strike Fighter/Lightning II, Innovation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701243532 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701243532 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paresh Kumar Narayan 
Author-X-Name-First: Paresh Kumar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Narayan 
Author-Name: Seema Narayan 
Author-X-Name-First: Seema 
Author-X-Name-Last: Narayan 
Title: DOES MILITARY EXPENDITURE DETERMINE FIJI'S EXPLODING DEBT LEVELS? 
Abstract:
  Fiji's total debt stands at 65% of GDP. Domestic debt constitutes 55% of
 GDP. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether military expenditure
 has contributed to Fiji's exploding debt levels over the period 1970 to
 2005. Our empirical analysis, conducted within a cointegration and vector
 error-correction framework, suggests that, in the long-run, military
 expenditure has had a statistically significant positive impact on both
 external debt and domestic debt, while income has had a statistically
 significant positive impact on domestic debt and a statistically
 significant negative impact on external debt. We explain the reasons
 behind this finding and draw some policy implications. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 77-87 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Military Expenditure, GDP, Debt, Cointegration, Fiji, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453784 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701453784 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anton Lowenberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Anton 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lowenberg 
Author-Name: Timothy Mathews 
Author-X-Name-First: Timothy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mathews 
Title: WHY IRAQ? 
Abstract:
  The US claim that the invasion and occupation of Iraq was a necessary
 component of the war on terror has been roundly criticized in both popular
 and scholarly discourse, while many major US allies were unsupportive.
 However, the present article argues that the US strategy can be viewed as
 a rational approach to combating transnational terrorist attacks on the
 American homeland. By deploying a large, activist contingent of troops in
 a geographical location relatively close to the terrorists' base of
 operations, a target country can, under certain specified circumstances,
 successfully deflect terrorist attacks away from domestic civilians, even
 if the effect of such deployment is not directly to diminish the
 terrorists' capacity to launch attacks. The interaction between the target
 government and a terrorist organization is characterized as a sequential
 move game, the solution to which identifies the conditions under which a
 deflection strategy maximizes the expected payoff to the target
 government. It is shown that the deflection strategy makes most sense when
 the perceived cost of a terrorist attack on the homeland is high and when
 the target nation is militarily strong and confident of success, has a
 relatively small proportion of its domestic population that is sympathetic
 to the terrorists' cause, and is geographically distant from the main base
 of terrorist operations. Target countries for which one or more of these
 conditions are absent might be expected to rationally reject such a
 strategy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-20 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Terrorism, Deterrence, Iraq, Game Theory, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453685 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701453685 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow 
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow 
Author-Name: Yakir Plessner 
Author-X-Name-First: Yakir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Plessner 
Title: TAX EFFICIENCY AND QUALITY/QUANTITY TRADE-OFFS IN DEFENSE PROCUREMENT 
Abstract:
  In the defense policy literature, it is widely believed that there is a
 pronounced bias towards the procurement of a less than optimal number of
 excessively sophisticated weapons. In this paper, we consider the
 possibility that this perceived bias is the result of the timing and
 informational structure of defense procurement decisions, and the
 interrelationship of this structure with overall fiscal policy.
 Specifically, this paper presents a model that suggests that tax smoothing
 considerations of the type first articulated in Barro (1979) could lead
 social welfare maximizing decision makers to choose a higher level of
 weapon quality than would be optimal if government revenue could be raised
 without resort to distortionary taxation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 21-26 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defense procurement, Weapon quality, Tax smoothing, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701348984 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701348984 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oya Erdogdu 
Author-X-Name-First: Oya 
Author-X-Name-Last: Erdogdu 
Title: POLITICAL DECISIONS, DEFENSE AND GROWTH 
Abstract:
  Considering the importance of military expenditures on political and
 economical success of a government, this empirical study analyzes the
 relations between political stability, economic growth and military
 expenditures. Based on the theoretical model developed by Blomberg (1996),
 the vector autoregression analyzes results for a democratic country and
 indicates the significance of military expenditures on political stability
 and private sector investment decisions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 27-35 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defense, Political Stability, Growth, VAR, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453701 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701453701 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ibrahim Elbadawi 
Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elbadawi 
Author-Name: H&#xe5;vard Hegre 
Author-X-Name-First: H&#xe5;vard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hegre 
Title: GLOBALIZATION, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, AND INTERNAL ARMED CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  Critics of trade liberalization argue that globalization increases
 countries' vulnerability to economic shocks and hence may exacerbate
 domestic social conflict. Such social conflict may also be transformed
 into armed conflict. Others argue that globalization promotes economic
 growth and reduces poverty, which leads to a reduction in the risk of
 internal conflict. Several studies find trade to reduce the risk of
 interstate conflict. This article investigates the impact of trade and
 trade shocks on the risk of intrastate conflict. A set of
 operationalizations of economic shock is developed and used to analyze the
 risk of conflicts that involve at least 25 battle deaths per year. The
 analysis finds no robust evidence for a direct relationship between trade
 openness, trade shocks, and the risk of armed conflict. There is somewhat
 more basis for concluding that globalization affects the risk indirectly
 through its effect on long- and short-term growth. In the long run,
 trade-induced growth reduces the risk of domestic conflict. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 37-60 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Globalization, Economic Shocks, Armed Conflict, Civil War, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701365160 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701365160 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Onur Ozsoy 
Author-X-Name-First: Onur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozsoy 
Title: GOVERNMENT BUDGET DEFICITS, DEFENCE EXPENDITURE AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This paper analyzes the relationship between government budget deficits,
 defence expenditure and income redistribution among different
 social-income groups in Turkey for the period 1965-2003. The analysis was
 based on a five-equation vector auto regressive (VAR) model and impulse
 response functions (IRFs) derived from the VAR model. The study finds that
 the deficit as a percentage of GNP has a negative and significant impact
 on transfer payments as a percentage of GNP. The IRFs indicate that shocks
 to deficit expenditures as a percentage of GNP (DEFGNP) have statistically
 significant impacts on defence spending as a percentage of GNP (DSGNP),
 educational expenditures as a percentage of GNP (EDGNP), health
 expenditures as a percentage of GNP (HEGNP), and transfer payments as a
 percentage of GNP (TPGNP). The results derived from this study also
 indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between
 defence spending as a percentage of GNP and deficits as a percentage of
 GNP. Therefore, defence spending is viewed as a tool for transferring
 income among different social-income groups and across generations in
 Turkey for the period 1965-2004. As a result of this, the government can
 use deficit and defence spending as one of the major instruments to
 transfer income among different social-income groups and across
 generations in Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 61-75 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Budget deficits, Defence expenditure, Income transfers, VAR models, Impulse response functions, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701347689 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701347689 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rafael Llorca-Vivero 
Author-X-Name-First: Rafael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Llorca-Vivero 
Title: TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: NEW EVIDENCE 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the impact of terrorist activity on international
 tourist flows. To this end, we have estimated a cross-sectional gravity
 equation for tourism from the G-7 countries to a sample of 134
 destinations over the period 2001-2003. Within this framework, we evaluate
 the deviation from 'normal' tourist flows due to terrorist activity, which
 is considered as negative advertising for the affected country. The
 analysis suggests that both domestic victims and international attacks are
 relevant factors when foreign tourists make their choice. This result is
 robust under alternative specifications. Moreover, the impact of terrorism
 is more severe in developing countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 169-188 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Domestic terrorism, International terrorism, Gravity model, Negative advertising, Tourist flows, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453917 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701453917 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: Book Review 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 189-190 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701833233 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701833233 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:189-190




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjell Hausken 
Author-X-Name-First: Kjell 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hausken 
Title: EXCHANGE, RAIDING, AND THE SHADOW OF THE FUTURE 
Abstract:
  A two-period exchange model is developed where production decisions in
 the first period determine the amount of resources available in the second
 period. Each agent allocates resources to defend its production and attack
 the production of the other agent. Production, conflict and exchange occur
 simultaneously in a dynamic model. This extends earlier exchange models,
 which are static and preclude defense and appropriation. The agents
 jointly determine price through their export decisions. Upon introducing
 exchange endogenously, raiding in the first relative to the second period
 decreases with growth, appropriation cost, and when the future becomes
 more important, and increases with defense cost, production cost, and
 usability of appropriation. Increasing the usability of appropriation and
 defense cost causes a transition from pure exchange via joint exchange and
 raiding to pure raiding. This implies that agents gradually substitute
 from defense to appropriation, they exchange less, and utility decreases.
 Utility isoquants in a usability of appropriation versus discount factor
 diagram are concavely increasing for joint exchange and raiding, and can
 be convexly decreasing for pure raiding. Cobb-Douglas utilities are
 assumed. The results are confirmed with CES utilities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 89-106 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Production, Exchange, Trade, Appropriation, Defense, Mutual raiding, Dynamics, Growth, Discounting, Predation, Attack, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701574480 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701574480 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sang Hoo Bae 
Author-X-Name-First: Sang Hoo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bae 
Author-Name: Attiat Ott 
Author-X-Name-First: Attiat 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ott 
Title: PREDATORY BEHAVIOR OF GOVERNMENTS: THE CASE OF MASS KILLING 
Abstract:
  In this paper we seek to answer the question: why do governments engage
 in mass killing? Tullock (1974) gives gain or avoidance of loss as the
 motive. We construct a three-stage theoretic framework to explain the
 choice of a ruler of a country. The conditions that must be met for a mass
 killing regime to win over alternative regimes are derived. Using the COW
 project data over the period 1816-1997, we estimate two models: negative
 binomial regression of number of battle-related deaths and a probit model
 for the choice of mass killing. The paper concludes with suggestions for
 data collections and further research. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 107-125 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Mass killing, Vertical differentiation, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701516846 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701516846 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:107-125




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Steve Garrison 
Author-X-Name-First: Steve 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garrison 
Title: THE ROAD TO CIVIL WAR: AN INTERACTIVE THEORY OF INTERNAL POLITICAL VIOLENCE 
Abstract:
  Opportunity structure theories of civil war onset argue that certain
 societal preconditions lower the costs of rebel mobilization. This
 approach, however, has not provided an account of how these structures
 transform lower level political violence into civil war because civil war
 is treated as a conceptually distinct category of violence. This paper
 proposes an internal theory of political violence based on the
 interactions of regimes and challengers. The escalation and de-escalation
 of political violence is viewed as the product of comparative rates of
 adaptation. Equal rates of adaptation produce civil war, while unequal
 rates, termination. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 127-151 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Civil war, Internal conflict, Conflict escalation, Conflict resolution, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701601895 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701601895 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:2:p:127-151




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Grace Sanico 
Author-X-Name-First: Grace 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanico 
Author-Name: Makoto Kakinaka 
Author-X-Name-First: Makoto 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kakinaka 
Title: TERRORISM AND DETERRENCE POLICY WITH TRANSNATIONAL SUPPORT 
Abstract:
  This study provides an explanation of terrorism by examining interactions
 between the terrorist group with a minority as a potential pool of
 recruits and the government supported by a majority. A hawkish deterrence
 policy makes it more risky for terrorists to launch attacks, but heightens
 the anti-government feeling of the terrorist group. In addition, the
 payoff for the government depends not only on the payoff loss associated
 with the level of terrorism, but also on the political payoff from the
 action itself of adopting a hawk policy due to its politicians' vested
 interests. We first show that whether the deterrence policy should be
 'hawk to 'dove is closely dependent on the relationships among the risk
 associated with terrorism, the anti-government feeling of the terrorist
 group, and the political payoff for the government. This study then
 introduces transnational support enhancing the capability of a terrorist
 group to intensify its activity and shows that the emergence of
 transnational support may cause the government to reform its deterrence
 policy from 'dove' toward 'hawk,' with terrorism intensified in the
 society. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 153-167 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Terrorism, Deterrence policy, Transnational support, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701505419 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701505419 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sacit Hadi Akdede 
Author-X-Name-First: Sacit Hadi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Akdede 
Author-Name: Jinyoung Hwang 
Author-X-Name-First: Jinyoung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hwang 
Author-Name: Emre Can 
Author-X-Name-First: Emre 
Author-X-Name-Last: Can 
Title: CULTURAL DIVERSITY, DOMESTIC POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND PUBLIC EXPENDITURES 
Abstract:
  This study investigates the relationship between cultural diversity,
 political violence and public expenditures. Using a cross-section of
 cultural diversity indices, it is empirically examined whether cultural
 diversity caused or intensified political violence in the 1980s and 1990s.
 It is found that economic factors were statistically significant in the
 intensity of the violence in the 1980s, whereas political and cultural
 factors were significant in the 1990s. In addition, ethnic diversity took
 a significant role in both starting the violence and the intensity of it
 in the 1990s. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 235-247 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Cultural diversity, Ethno-linguistic fractionalization, Modern political economy, Political violence, Public expenditures, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972204 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972204 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:235-247




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Onur Ozsoy 
Author-X-Name-First: Onur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozsoy 
Title: DEFENCE ECONOMICS: PERSPECTIVES FROM TURKEY. INTRODUCTION 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 191-193 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972121 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972121 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:191-193




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Onur Ozsoy 
Author-X-Name-First: Onur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozsoy 
Title: DEFENCE SPENDING AND THE MACROECONOMY: THE CASE OF TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This study uses a six-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and
 analyses the relationship between defence spending as a percentage of GNP,
 government budget as a percentage of GNP, total deficit as a percentage of
 GNP, the GNP growth rates, inflation rates, and government budget deficit
 as a percentage of GNP for the case of Turkey from 1933 to 2004. The
 impulse response functions (IRFs) are also derived and Granger causalities
 among the variables estimated. The results support the short-run causality
 between defence spending and economic growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 195-208 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defence expenditure, Macroeconomics, Government budget, VAR, Granger Causality, Impulse Response Functions, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972139 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972139 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:195-208




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hasan Sahin 
Author-X-Name-First: Hasan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sahin 
Author-Name: Onur Ozsoy 
Author-X-Name-First: Onur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozsoy 
Title: ARMS RACE BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY: A MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH 
Abstract:
  Two NATO allies, Greece and Turkey, have also been considered potential
 threats to each other. Thus, these countries' military spending has been
 subject to many academic studies to observe if these potential threats
 trigger the military spending of both countries. Nonetheless, most
 regression results of those studies did not find a significant result
 supporting the arms race between the two countries. The current study
 provides an additional empirical evaluation of military spending of both
 countries by using an annual data set running from 1958 to 2004. The study
 is in spirit of Smith et al. (2000) employing a Markov switching approach,
 but utilizing a longer period. A Markov switching approach allows
 estimation of military spending of each country if both sides compete with
 each other to have higher spending or if they behave independently of each
 other. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 209-216 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Arms race, Markov switching, Turkey, Greece, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972154 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972154 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:209-216




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erdal Karagol 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagol 
Author-Name: Aziz Turhan 
Author-X-Name-First: Aziz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Turhan 
Title: EXTERNAL DEBT, DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES IN TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the relationship between external debt, defence
 expenditures and political business cycles in Turkey for 1960-2002. Here,
 two important aspects of the political business cycle, the electoral
 effects and the partisan effects, were investigated. The empirical finding
 of impulse response functions of defence expenditures to a shock in the
 partisan effect is positive. The results reported here indicate that
 political colours of parties appear to be important. This suggests that
 defence expenditure is influenced by political ideology and the fiscal
 policy of governments after elections. Moreover, the impulse response
 functions of external debt stock to shocks to the electoral effects and
 the response of external debt stock shocks to the partisan effects
 increased over the whole period. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 217-224 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: External debt, Defence expenditures, Business cycles, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972170 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972170 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:217-224




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mete Feridun 
Author-X-Name-First: Mete 
Author-X-Name-Last: Feridun 
Author-Name: Selami Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Selami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: REGIONAL UNDERDEVELOPMENT AND TERRORISM: THE CASE OF SOUTH EASTERN TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This article investigates the possible role of the regional
 underdevelopment of South Eastern Turkey in the ensuing terrorism in the
 country. The article also aims at making a contribution towards a better
 understanding of some economic conditions that are related to terrorism.
 For this purpose, a novel approach to the examination of the roots of
 terrorism has been followed. First, we run Principal Components Analysis
 on total GDP and its components in South Eastern Turkey in order to reduce
 the number of potential explanatory variables. Second, we use the first
 three components in a logit regression where the dependent variable
 consists of an index of terrorist attacks. The results of the analysis
 have revealed that total GDP is helpful in explaining terrorism in Turkey.
 Furthermore, we find evidence that agriculture and government services are
 more important components of GDP in explaining terrorism than factors such
 as trade, construction, manufacturing and transportation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 225-233 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Terrorism, Defence expenditure, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972196 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972196 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:225-233




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: COLLABORATION AND EUROPEAN DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL POLICY 
Abstract:
  Traditionally, the EU has protected its national defence industries
 (through Article 296). There are now policy initiatives to create a
 European defence equipment market (EDEM) and a European defence technology
 and industrial base (EDTIB). This article assesses these policy
 initiatives. It considers the EU as an inefficient defence market and also
 considers the opportunities for creating an efficient defence industrial
 policy. Collaboration has been a distinctive feature of European defence
 industrial policy and a case study of the Typhoon is presented and
 assessed. Finally, criteria for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of
 the EDTIB are presented. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 303-315 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: EDEM, EDTIB, collaboration, defence industrial policy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802221585 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802221585 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:303-315




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: INTRODUCTION: DEFENCE SPENDING: DETERMINANTS, ECONOMIC IMPACT AND BURDEN SHARING ISSUES 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 249-251 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802164769 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802164769 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:249-251




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF THE BURDEN SHARING ASPECTS OF A EUROPEAN UNION COMMON DEFENCE POLICY 
Abstract:
  The move towards a common European defence policy raises a multitude of
 multidimensional and complex issues. As pointed out in a recent paper
 (Hartley, 2003), these issues include economic aspects ranging from the
 role of the European defence industrial base to the costs of a common
 defence policy, and therefore the issue of burden sharing. This paper,
 assuming that the provision of common European defence to the
 participating members has the characteristics of a pure public good,
 approaches the burden sharing issue raised by Hartley (2003) by
 calculating a simple benefit share index that is then compared with the
 contribution made by each country to the costs of the common defence.
 Assuming the existence of a European Defence Union, the results indicate
 that some members are under-contributing while others are
 over-contributing in relation to the benefits derived. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 253-263 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: European defence, burden sharing, CESDP, CFSP, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802164777 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802164777 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:253-263




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nikolaos Mylonidis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mylonidis 
Title: REVISITING THE NEXUS BETWEEN MILITARY SPENDING AND GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 
Abstract:
  This paper focuses on the influence of military spending on European
 economic growth. The estimated regressions are based on Barro's (1991)
 growth model, which controls for economic institutional variation across
 countries. The cross-section and panel data analyses cover the period
 1960-2000. The empirical findings indicate that military spending has an
 overall net negative influence on economic growth. Furthermore, the
 magnitude of this negative impact tends to increase over time, as
 cross-section regression results indicate. Given the development of a
 Common European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP), these findings
 suggest that enhanced defence spending may hinder European economic
 growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 265-272 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Economic growth, Military expenditure, European Union, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802164801 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802164801 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:265-272




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: THE DEMAND FOR MILITARY EXPENDITURE: EVIDENCE FROM THE EU15 (1961-2005) 
Abstract:
  In recent years, there has been a growing number of studies that
 investigate the economic effects of military spending using a variety of
 estimation methods and focusing either on individual countries or on
 groups of relatively homogeneous countries. The situation is not the same
 as far as the demand for military expenditure is concerned, where less
 attention has been given and the majority of empirical studies have
 focused on individual countries, with only a few focusing on groups of
 countries and employing cross-sectional or panel data approaches. A region
 that has not attracted any research interest regarding the determinants of
 military expenditure is the European Union (EU) with the exception of
 individual country studies (mainly for the UK, Greece, France, Spain,
 Portugal). This paper argues that understanding the determinants of
 military spending in these countries is very important, especially given
 the discussions in recent years towards the development of a Common
 European Security and Defence Policy (CESDP). It then follows Dunne et al.
 (2003) and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to
 cointegration to estimate a general model of aggregate defence spending
 for each of the 15 core EU countries over the period 1961-2005. The
 findings indicate that there is very little uniformity in the factors that
 determine each country's demand for military expenditure, something that
 needs to be borne in mind by policy makers when burden-sharing issues are
 considered in the development of the CESDP. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 273-292 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Military expenditure, Demand, European Union, Autoregressive Distributed, Lag (ARDL), 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802166533 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802166533 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:273-292




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman 
Author-X-Name-First: Sam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: THE DEMAND FOR MILITARY EXPENDITURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: HOSTILITY VERSUS CAPABILITY 
Abstract:
  This paper considers the interpretation of the empirical results of the
 developing literature on the demand for military spending that specifies a
 general model with arms race and spill-over effects and estimates it on
 cross-section and panel data. It questions whether it is meaningful to
 talk of an 'arms race' in panel data or cross-section data, and suggests
 that it may be more appropriate to talk about the relevant variables -
 aggregate military spending of the 'Security Web' (i.e. all neighbours and
 other security-influencing powers) and the aggregate military spending of
 'Potential Enemies' - as acting as proxies for threat perceptions, which
 will reflect both hostility and capability. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 293-302 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Military spending, Developing countries, Demand, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802166566 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802166566 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:4:p:293-302




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais 
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais 
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Title: THE FIGHT OF A 'CITIZEN ECONOMIST' FOR PEACE AND PROSPERITY: KEYNES AND THE ISSUES OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 
Abstract:
  John Maynard Keynes was a citizen economist, anxious to defend a
 capitalist system threatened by the rise of totalitarianism during the
 inter-war period. His criticism of the Versailles treaty in 1919 was
 supported by the idea of a link between economic prosperity and
 international peace. During the crisis of the 1930s, he advocated using
 the League of Nations for a peaceful settlement of international
 conflicts; while being in favour of economic interventionism, he
 criticised mercantilist policies. He recognised that military expenditure
 may be used as a reflationary policy, but after 1945 his theory was
 misused to promote the development of a 'defence-based' economic policy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 361-371 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Keynes, Citizen economist, League of Nations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354352 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354352 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:361-371




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Michael Intriligator 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Intriligator 
Title: PACIFISM IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 
Abstract:
  This article presents some pacifist ideas developed in various
 economists' works since the origins of economic thought. The Classicals
 considered international peace to be a normal result (as well as a
 necessary condition) of economic development and human progress. Such a
 conception is also shared by other schools of thought, such as Utopian
 socialism or institutionalism. Some economists were active in the
 development of the pacifist movement before the First World War, which led
 to the organization of several international Peace Congresses. During the
 Cold War, certain economic studies on military expenditure and the arms
 race contributed to the denunciation of an excessive militarism. However,
 the post-Cold War disarmament highlighted the costs of the necessary peace
 investment. There is a substantial research agenda and a need for more
 academic economists to undertake analytical and empirical work in this
 important field. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 373-386 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Pacifism, Liberalism, Veblen, Militarism, Peace movements, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354378 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354378 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:373-386




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais 
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais 
Title: WAR AND PEACE ISSUES IN THE HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT: INTRODUCTION 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-319 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354246 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354246 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:317-319




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Title: THE GENESIS OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT CONCERNING WAR AND PEACE 
Abstract:
  This article links the development of political and philosophical thought
 with that of economic thought concerning war and peace issues. The
 economic orthodoxy that emerged during the 17th century presented human
 relations as peaceful, society being governed by a 'natural order', the
 Smithian 'invisible hand'. On the other hand, political theory saw
 emerging a realistic view with human relations characterized by violence,
 with conflict being society's normal state. This dichotomy explains the
 relative scarcity of economic studies on war and peace issues and the fact
 that these have been more often studied by heterodox authors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 321-330 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: War, Peace, Philosophy, Political scientists, English classicists, Mercantilism, List, Marxism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354261 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354261 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:321-330




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Hebert 
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hebert 
Author-Name: Ivan Samson 
Author-X-Name-First: Ivan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Samson 
Title: THE BIRTH OF THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OR THE ECONOMY IN THE HEART OF POLITICS: MERCANTILISM 
Abstract:
  Mercantilism (16th-18th centuries) is a set of precepts concerning
 economic policy. It places the State at the heart of national economic
 development. Wealth is conceived as serving power. Mercantilists share a
 static conception of international economic relations, considering that
 one country can only enrich itself to the detriment of another. It is a
 true theory of economic war. However, the development of mercantilism
 shows a progressive transition of economic thought towards a lower
 consideration of political aspects. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 331-338 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Mercantilism, Power of the Prince, War, International trade, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354279 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354279 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:331-338




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel 
Author-Name: Liliane Bensahel 
Author-X-Name-First: Liliane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bensahel 
Author-Name: Steven Coissard 
Author-X-Name-First: Steven 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coissard 
Author-Name: Yann Echinard 
Author-X-Name-First: Yann 
Author-X-Name-Last: Echinard 
Title: FRENCH UTOPIAN ECONOMISTS OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY 
Abstract:
  During the 19th century, the Utopian economists (as Karl Marx ironically
 nicknamed them) developed some revolutionary projects of social
 organisation, breaking away from capitalism. Opposed to political
 violence, their writings anticipated a peaceful evolution towards a social
 model similar to socialism. Some of their thoughts still seem relevant
 today: creation of a federation of States and of an international
 Parliament; political domination of industrialists and bankers; productive
 use of the army. This paper presents the thoughts of five French utopian
 economists who are representative of the school's diversity: Saint-Simon,
 Fourier, Pecqueur, Chevalier and Proudhon. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 339-350 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: French utopian economists, Saint-Simon, Fourier, Pecqueur, Chevalier, Proudhon, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354311 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354311 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:339-350




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fanny Coulomb 
Author-X-Name-First: Fanny 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coulomb 
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais 
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais 
Title: THE MARXIST ANALYSIS OF WAR AND MILITARY EXPENDITURES, BETWEEN CERTAINTY AND UNCERTAINTY 
Abstract:
  In analysing capitalism, Karl Marx dealt little with issues of
 international relations and militarism - Friedrich Engels was in charge of
 these questions. But war has never been integrated in the Marxist diagram.
 However, Marx and Engels' writings contain essential remarks on
 international conflicts conceived as a consequence of the class war, on
 militarism's role in industrial development and on trade wars replacing
 armed conflicts. These ideas have later been developed by Marxist
 theorists, notably in pre-revolutionary Russia, with an insistence on the
 warlike character of capitalism at the stage of imperialism. The Marxist
 analysis of militarism was continued after the Second World War,
 accompanied by a controversy on the impact of military expenditure on the
 profit rate. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 351-359 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: War, Capitalism, Marx, Engels, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802354345 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802354345 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:5:p:351-359




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jomana Amara 
Author-X-Name-First: Jomana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Amara 
Title: NATO DEFENSE EXPENDITURES: COMMON GOALS OR DIVERGING INTERESTS? A STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  By testing for structural breaks in defense expenditures, the dates of
 change in the pattern of defense expenditures for the NATO allies are
 determined. If NATO members are responding to a common threat, the breaks
 should be similar, in both direction and dates, for defense expenditures.
 The breaks should occur during major NATO strategy shifts. The results of
 the structural analysis tests suggest that NATO allies do not have an
 integrated response to NATO-specific defense issues. It appears that NATO
 members, in general, adjusted their defense spending according to economic
 imperatives, political issues, and ally-specific defense agendas. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 449-469 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defense expenditures, NATO, Multiple structural changes, Defense burden, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701823259 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701823259 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:449-469




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shin-Jen Tzeng 
Author-X-Name-First: Shin-Jen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tzeng 
Author-Name: Ching-Chong Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Ching-Chong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Author-Name: Chun-Chieh Huang 
Author-X-Name-First: Chun-Chieh 
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang 
Title: DOES MILITARY EXPENDITURE MATTER FOR INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH? 
Abstract:
  This paper sets up a monetary endogenous growth model, and uses it to
 explain the ambiguous linkage between the military burden and the
 inflation rate observed in existing empirical studies. It is found that an
 expansion in the military burden has an ambiguous effect on the inflation
 rate depending upon the relative extent of two conflicting forces. More
 specifically, if the increase in the marginal benefit from holding money
 exceeds (falls short of) the increase in the marginal product of private
 capital, the inflation rate will rise (fall) in response. Moreover, it is
 found that an increase in the military burden will stimulate the balanced
 growth rate, confirming Benoit's famous empirical findings. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 471-478 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Endogenous growth, Military expenditure, Inflation, Benoit hypothesis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/14775080701606184 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14775080701606184 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:471-478




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Kirkpatrick 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kirkpatrick 
Title: THE FUTURE OF UK DEFENCE RESEARCH 
Abstract:
  Developments within the UK in the Ministry of Defence's policy on defence
 equipment acquisition demand changes in the scale and allocation of the
 Ministry's budget for defence research. To facilitate the national debate
 on those changes, this paper reviews the key questions about UK defence
 research which the Ministry must resolve in order to implement its new
 Defence Technology Strategy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 479-491 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defence research, Defence equipment acquisition, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701750668 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701750668 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:479-491




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gulay Gunluk-Senesen 
Author-X-Name-First: Gulay 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gunluk-Senesen 
Title: Book Review 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 493-496 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802490081 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802490081 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:493-496




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Hudson 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hudson 
Author-Name: Philip Jones 
Author-X-Name-First: Philip 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jones 
Title: CORRUPTION AND MILITARY EXPENDITURE: AT 'NO COST TO THE KING' 
Abstract:
  We analyse the determinants of the number of military personnel, military
 expenditure and arms imports using a panel data of all available countries
 with data from 1984-2006. The number of military personnel increases with
 the extent of external threat and with conscription. There is evidence for
 both economies of scale and the existence of 'ghost soldiers'.
 Expenditure, given the number of military personnel, increases with the
 extent of internal threat and the area of the country. Arms imports
 increase with the extent of external threat, GDP per capita and
 corruption. Finally, both arms imports and military expenditure impact
 upon corruption. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 387-403 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Defence, Corruption, Bureaucrats, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801962270 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801962270 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:387-403




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kevin Siqueira 
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Siqueira 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: DEFENSIVE COUNTERTERRORISM MEASURES AND DOMESTIC POLITICS 
Abstract:
  Unlike most of the literature, this paper includes domestic political
 considerations in which two countries must decide defensive
 countermeasures against a common terrorist threat. A delegation problem
 arises as voters strategically choose a policymaker whose preferences
 differ from their own. As a consequence, countries limit the presumed
 oversupply of defensive countermeasures. Thus, the inclusion of domestic
 politics gives a new perspective on counterterrorism. The timing of
 elections is also shown to make a difference. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 405-413 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Terrorism, Externalities, Counterterrorism, Delegation problem, Domestic politics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701775483 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701775483 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:405-413




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Patrick Brandt 
Author-X-Name-First: Patrick 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brandt 
Author-Name: T. David Mason 
Author-X-Name-First: T. David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mason 
Author-Name: Mehmet Gurses 
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gurses 
Author-Name: Nicolai Petrovsky 
Author-X-Name-First: Nicolai 
Author-X-Name-Last: Petrovsky 
Author-Name: Dagmar Radin 
Author-X-Name-First: Dagmar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Radin 
Title: WHEN AND HOW THE FIGHTING STOPS: EXPLAINING THE DURATION AND OUTCOME OF CIVIL WARS 
Abstract:
  Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a
 function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or
 negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil
 war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate
 the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of
 the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk
 model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to
 whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or
 negotiated settlement. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 415-434 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Civil war, Conflict resolution, Duration, Competing risks, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701823267 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701823267 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:415-434




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeffrey Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Author-Name: M. H. Tuttle 
Author-X-Name-First: M. H. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tuttle 
Title: DOES DEFENSE SPENDING REALLY PROMOTE AGGREGATE OUTPUT IN THE UNITED STATES? 
Abstract:
  Many studies have examined the relationship between defense spending and
 growth in real aggregate output with mixed results. Most recently,
 Atesoglu (2002) finds a positive relationship between defense spending and
 output. Capturing the error correction term as the long run adjustment
 parameter and including the long run adjustment in the relationship, we do
 not find evidence that defense spending promotes growth in real output.
 Instead, defense spending responds to aggregate income shocks. We
 re-estimated the relationship and dummied all US military conflicts with
 similar results concerning military spending's effect on output.
 Interestingly, we find trade-offs between defense and non-defense
 government spending during war time. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 435-447 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 19 
Year: 2008 
Keywords: Aggregate output, Defense spending, Cointegration, Vector error correction model, Military conflicts, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701701950 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701701950 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:435-447




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Durmus Ozdemir 
Author-X-Name-First: Durmus 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ozdemir 
Author-Name: Ali Bayar 
Author-X-Name-First: Ali 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bayar 
Title: THE PEACE DIVIDEND EFFECT OF TURKISH CONVERGENCE TO THE EU: A MULTI-REGION DYNAMIC CGE MODEL ANALYSIS FOR GREECE AND TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This paper examines the peace dividend effect of Turkish convergence to
 EU membership. By employing a multi-region dynamic CGE model, we examine
 the prospect for conflict resolution if Turkey becomes an EU member. The
 model allows us to analyse several scenarios that imply varying amounts of
 reduction of the military expenditure/GDP ratios. On the one hand, this
 change will cause a decrease in sectoral demand for military expenditures,
 while on the other hand, reallocation of the reduced expenditure on (i)
 education, (ii) tax decrease, and (iii) infrastructure, should have a huge
 growth impact. Our dynamic CGE simulation experiments emphasize the
 economic gain for all parties involved. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 69-78 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Peace dividend, Military expenditure demand, Greece, Turkey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701833217 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701833217 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:69-78




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bahar Araz-Takay 
Author-X-Name-First: Bahar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Araz-Takay 
Author-Name: K. Peren Arin 
Author-X-Name-First: K. Peren 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arin 
Author-Name: Tolga Omay 
Author-X-Name-First: Tolga 
Author-X-Name-Last: Omay 
Title: THE ENDOGENOUS AND NON-LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TERRORISM AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: TURKISH EVIDENCE 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a
 novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This
 research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible
 non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and
 economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear
 models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on
 economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show
 that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe
 during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on
 terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-10 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Terror, VAR, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701775509 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701775509 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:1-10




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow 
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow 
Author-Name: Yosef Mealem 
Author-X-Name-First: Yosef 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mealem 
Author-Name: Yossef Tobol 
Author-X-Name-First: Yossef 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tobol 
Title: SHOULD MILITARY UNIFORMS CARRY THE UNION LABEL? 
Abstract:
  It is widely believed that the unionization of military labor leads to
 reduced discipline and lower combat capability. Case studies of the
 performance of existing military unions, however, generally suggest that
 unionization has a benign impact on the performance of the armed forces.
 In this paper, we offer a theoretical economic analysis of the likely
 impact of military unionization on volunteer militaries. Our analysis
 suggests that military unionization will unambiguously lead to larger, but
 less disciplined, armed forces, leaving the overall impact of unionization
 on defense capability ambiguous. Military unionization, however, will
 clearly enhance social welfare. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 11-19 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Unionization, Military manpower, Efficient bargaining, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801962262 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801962262 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:11-19




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: H. Sonmez Atesoglu 
Author-X-Name-First: H. Sonmez 
Author-X-Name-Last: Atesoglu 
Title: DEFENSE SPENDING AND AGGREGATE OUTPUT IN THE UNITED STATES 
Abstract:
  In this article the effect of defense spending on aggregate output is
 discussed. Recent publications in this area are reviewed and new
 additional evidence is provided. The findings presented in this paper are
 supportive of the positive effect of defense spending. However, in light
 of the contrary evidence presented in other papers, empirical evidence
 taken as a whole, suggests that a definitive conclusion about the effect
 of defense spending at this time should be avoided. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 21-26 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Defense spending, Aggregate output, Interest-rate augmented keynesian cross-model, Cointegration, New evidence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701775533 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701775533 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:21-26




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vasilis Zervos 
Author-X-Name-First: Vasilis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zervos 
Author-Name: G.M. Peter Swann 
Author-X-Name-First: G.M. Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Swann 
Title: THE IMPACT OF DEFENCE INTEGRATORS AND STANDARDS ON VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INNOVATION IN THE DEFENCE INDUSTRY 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the extent and character of product innovation in
 defence technologies where there are strong network effects, but where
 there is not a generally accepted system of open standards. Specifically,
 we examine the implications for innovation from the development of
 network-centric defence agencies accompanied by the creation of system
 integrators in the defence industry. The results show that although these
 developments are expected to have a number of positive impacts, such as
 enhanced security and gate-keeping of the relevant technologies, they are
 also likely to have an adverse effect on the available variety of new
 defence products. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 27-42 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Defence industry, Innovation, Integrators, Network, Standards, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701833183 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701833183 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:27-42




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Loek Groot 
Author-X-Name-First: Loek 
Author-X-Name-Last: Groot 
Author-Name: Vincent van den Berg 
Author-X-Name-First: Vincent 
Author-X-Name-Last: van den Berg 
Title: INEQUALITY IN MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND THE SAMUELSON RULE 
Abstract:
  In this paper, we show that standard measures used in the income
 inequality literature, the Lorenz curve and the associated Gini-index, can
 successfully be applied to the distribution of defence spending across
 countries. Secondly, we use the Samuelson rule to explain the distribution
 of military expenditures across countries over time. According to the
 constant defence burden interpretation of the Samuelson rule,
 corresponding to the diagonal in the Lorenz diagram, the defence burdens
 should be equal across countries. It is shown that about three quarters of
 the variation in military expenditures can be explained by the Samuelson
 rule. We then go beyond the Samuelson rule to see which countries spend
 much more or less than predicted and investigate which other factors may
 influence the defence burden. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 43-67 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Public goods, Samuelson rule, Lorenz curve, Defence burden, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801972089 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801972089 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:43-67




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stella Karagianni 
Author-X-Name-First: Stella 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karagianni 
Author-Name: Maria Pempetzoglu 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pempetzoglu 
Title: DEFENSE SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A LINEAR AND NON-LINEAR GRANGER CAUSALITY APPROACH 
Abstract:
  This paper uses linear and non-linear Granger causality methods to
 determine the causal relationship between defense spending and economic
 growth in Turkey for the period 1949-2004. The innovative feature of this
 paper is that it provides evidence regarding the nonlinear causal
 dependence between military spending and economic growth in Turkey. The
 empirical results contribute to the empirical literature by indicating
 support for both linear and non-linear causality between military
 expenditures and economic development and they may prove useful in
 theoretical and empirical research by regulators and policy makers. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 139-148 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Defense spending, Economic growth, Turkey, Non-linear Granger Causality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801923173 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801923173 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:139-148




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Beom Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Beom 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Walter Enders 
Author-X-Name-First: Walter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Enders 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: 9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT? 
Abstract:
  In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling
 for a fatwa against the United States for its having 'declared war against
 God'. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of
 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable
 culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA
 Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether
 there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or
 after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the
 possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the
 standard Bai-Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS)
 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number
 of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical
 time-series analysis would not have predicted 9/11. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 79-93 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Terrorism, Structural breaks, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, 9/11, Osama Bin Laden, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701701968 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701701968 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:79-93




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kobi Kagan 
Author-X-Name-First: Kobi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kagan 
Author-Name: Alon Levkowitz 
Author-X-Name-First: Alon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levkowitz 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Author-Name: Avi Weiss 
Author-X-Name-First: Avi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Weiss 
Title: EVALUATING STRATEGIC ARMS LIMITATION AGREEMENTS, WITH APPLICATIONS TO THE ISRAELI-SYRIAN AND THE NORTH VERSUS SOUTH KOREAN CONFLICTS 
Abstract:
  This study evaluates the order of magnitude of the monetary cost of
 achieving an international strategic limitation agreement on weapons of
 mass destruction (WMD) in an asymmetric arms race, with applications to
 the Israeli-Syrian and the North versus South Korean conflicts. It extends
 the Kagan et al. (2005) framework and develops a model of resource
 allocation between expenditure on civilian government consumption and on
 security in a non-cooperative (Cournot) arms race between a developed
 country and a less-developed country. The model is used to predict the
 optimal mix of weapons of the two countries engaged in the arms race, and
 to evaluate the applicability of international strategic WMD limitation
 agreements. Applying the model to the arms race between Israel and Syria
 shows that if considered from a purely monetary perspective, such an
 agreement, in which the monetary transfer to Syria is made by either
 Israel or a third party, is within reach. A strategic agreement to limit
 North Korea's WMD is also economically feasible, but only when the
 monetary transfer to North Korea is shouldered by a third party such as
 the USA or a coalition of neighboring countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 95-121 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Asymmetric arms race, Weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Arms limitation agreements, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801923132 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801923132 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:95-121




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadir Ocal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ocal 
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Title: ARMS RACE BETWEEN TURKEY AND GREECE: A THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  The ongoing Turkish-Greek antagonism has triggered the interest of
 defense economists to investigate the various aspects of the arms race
 between Turkey and Greece. However, empirical studies examining the
 long-run relationship between the military expenditures of the two
 countries offer little evidence in favor of such an interaction. This
 paper attributes the poor results of the previous literature to the
 adherence to linear cointegration techniques and argues that if the
 adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is asymmetric, nonlinear
 co-integration models should be employed. Accordingly, this paper
 considers threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold
 autoregressive (M-TAR) models as alternative adjustment processes for the
 cointegration relationship, following Enders and Siklos (2001). The
 results indicate that the relationship between the variables can be
 characterized by a threshold cointegration specification following an
 M-TAR type adjustment process. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 123-129 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Arms race, Threshold cointegration, TAR and M-TAR models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801962254 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801962254 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:123-129




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amnon Levy 
Author-X-Name-First: Amnon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levy 
Title: MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERNAL CONFLICTS: A CONCEPTUALISATION 
Abstract:
  This exploratory paper outlines the special macroeconomic features of
 countries populated by two groups of people engaged in internal conflict
 yet forming a central government for generating benefits that cannot be
 privately attained. Each group exerts an influence on the central
 government in accordance with its relative military strength. The central
 government collects taxes, exports the country's natural resources and
 tourist attractions, attracts external grants and loans, and distributes
 the net revenues between the rival groups. The paper highlights the
 implications of the groups' investment in military strength for the
 state's net revenues and their distribution, for the state's external
 debt, and for the groups' ability to maintain and increase their ranks,
 production capital and per capita income. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 131-138 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Internal Conflict, Militarisation, Macroeconomics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701833191 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701833191 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:131-138




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shabbar Jaffry 
Author-X-Name-First: Shabbar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffry 
Author-Name: Yaseen Ghulam 
Author-X-Name-First: Yaseen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghulam 
Author-Name: Alexandros Apostolakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Alexandros 
Author-X-Name-Last: Apostolakis 
Title: JOB TRANSITIONS IN THE BRITISH ROYAL NAVY 
Abstract:
  Retention is a crucial issue in the Armed Forces, especially in the
 all-volunteer Royal Navy. This is mainly due to a number of organisational
 challenges and changes in operational requirements and priorities. Naval
 manpower planners need to consider appropriate measures to improve
 retention in the service. The evidence gathered from the empirical
 investigation shows that external (pull) factors exert a significant
 effect on the early exit/quit rates from the RN. Key economic factors such
 as pay and employment opportunities in the civilian employment markets
 play an important role in the decisions that individual ratings make with
 regard to remaining in naval employment or leaving altogether. In
 particular, it was found that quit rates from the Navy are negatively
 associated with the claimant count (unemployment) rate (i.e. as the
 unemployment rate in the civilian economy increases, the early exit rate
 from the Navy decreases), whilst the overall increase in civilian wages
 bears a positive relationship on quitting behaviour. The analysis provides
 further evidence to support the need for policies that are tailor-made to
 cater for different ratings' specialisations within the Royal Navy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 233-251 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Retention, Early exits, Hazard function, Royal Navy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802001904 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802001904 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:233-251




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yang-Ming Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Yang-Ming 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Shane Sanders 
Author-X-Name-First: Shane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanders 
Title: RAISING THE COST OF REBELLION: THE ROLE OF THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTION IN INTRASTATE CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role
 that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in
 an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson-Grossman (2000) framework
 of conflict in a two-stage game to the case involving outside intervention
 in a three-stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b), we examine the
 conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i)
 the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is
 deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party
 optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such
 behavior, which improves the incumbent government's potential to succeed
 in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the
 effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that
 an increase in the strength of inter-governmental trade partnerships
 increases the likelihood that third-party intervention deters rebellion. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 149-169 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Intrastate conflict, Third-party intervention, War, Peace, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802221742 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802221742 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:149-169




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski 
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski 
Author-Name: Stephanie Koorey 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephanie 
Author-X-Name-Last: Koorey 
Author-Name: Peter Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Title: MULTI-CHANNEL SUPPLY CHAIN FOR ILLICIT SMALL ARMS 
Abstract:
  To generate effective policy to reduce the proliferation of illicit small
 arms in developing countries, governments must understand how the weapons
 are distributed and illegal stockpiles formed. This paper describes the
 structural characteristics of small arms supply chains and models
 mechanisms delivering the weapons to illicit users. The paper draws on the
 experience of countries in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Melanesian
 states. By pointing to the structural complexity of small arms supply
 chains, it highlights challenges that multiple channels of supply pose for
 governments seeking to curb the flow of small arms into illicit stocks. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 171-191 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Small arms, Supply chain, Weapons stockpiles, Illicit arms, Black markets, SALW, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802030903 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802030903 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:171-191




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Phillips 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Phillips 
Title: APPLYING MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY TO THE ANALYSIS OF TERRORISM. COMPUTING THE SET OF ATTACK METHOD COMBINATIONS FROM WHICH THE RATIONAL TERRORIST GROUP WILL CHOOSE IN ORDER TO MAXIMISE INJURIES AND FATALITIES 
Abstract:
  In this paper, terrorism is analysed using the tools of modern portfolio
 theory. This approach permits the analysis of the returns that a terrorist
 group can expect from their activities as well as the risk they face. The
 analysis sheds new light on the nature of the terrorist group's (attack
 method) choice set and the efficiency properties of that set. If terrorist
 groups are, on average, more risk averse, the economist can expect the
 terrorist group to exhibit a bias towards bombing and armed attack. In
 addition, even the riskiest (from the terrorist group's point of view)
 combinations of attack methods have maximum expected returns of less than
 70 injuries and fatalities per attack per year. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 193-213 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Terrorism, Modern portfolio theory, Mean-variance analysis, Efficient choice set, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690801923124 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690801923124 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:193-213




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mark Pyman 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pyman 
Author-Name: Regina Wilson 
Author-X-Name-First: Regina 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wilson 
Author-Name: Dominic Scott 
Author-X-Name-First: Dominic 
Author-X-Name-Last: Scott 
Title: THE EXTENT OF SINGLE SOURCING IN DEFENCE PROCUREMENT AND ITS RELEVANCE AS A CORRUPTION RISK: A FIRST LOOK 
Abstract:
  Single-source, or non-competitive, defence procurement is a widespread
 phenomenon that is prevalent both in developing countries and in advanced
 arms exporting countries. The usual competitive bidding process - which
 assists in both value-for-money evaluation and in lowering corruption risk
 - is used much less often than expected in defence procurement. Whilst
 there can be good reasons for single sourcing, the opportunities and
 inducements for corruption are significantly escalated. Further, some
 countries that claim to employ single-source only in rare instances are
 found to have high percentages of non-competitive defence procurement.
 This is of particular concern as defence is perceived to be one of the
 more corruption-prone international business sectors, as identified in the
 2002 Bribe Payers Index (Transparency International, 2002), with
 procurement presenting a significant source of corruption risk. The work
 presented here gives data on the percentage of defence single source
 procurement in a number of countries. Some countries were transparent and
 open about this data, even where it showed them in an unfavourable light.
 Most were not, citing sensitivity reasons or even that the data did not
 exist as reasons for refusal. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 215-232 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802016506 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802016506 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:3:p:215-232




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kogi Balakrishnan 
Author-X-Name-First: Kogi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Balakrishnan 
Author-Name: Ron Matthews 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews 
Title: THE ROLE OF OFFSETS IN MALAYSIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRIALISATION 
Abstract:
  Defence offsets rank as one of the most important and controversial
 topics within the broad field of defence economics. Arms vendors are
 likely to view offsetting investment as a distraction, fearful of its
 potential to hurt the bottom line. By contrast, policymakers in the arms
 purchasing countries see offsets as an opportunity to extract technology
 transfer, as well as employment, investment and export sales
 opportunities. Establishing the actual impact of offsets, however, is not
 easy. The subject is shrouded in secrecy and myth, with anecdote and
 generalisation pervading even the intellectual press. This paper seeks to
 break the mould by offering an empirical case study of the role of offsets
 in Malaysian defence industrialisation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 341-358 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Defence offsets, Technology transfer, Defence industry, Malaysia, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802333117 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802333117 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:341-358




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jenn-Hong Tang 
Author-X-Name-First: Jenn-Hong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tang 
Author-Name: Cheng-Chung Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Cheng-Chung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Author-Name: Eric Lin 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS USING GLOBAL PANEL DATA 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the empirical relationships between military
 expenditure and unemployment rates. A set of global panel data on 46
 countries is utilized, and a panel data version of the Granger causality
 test is applied. The results indicate that there is little evidence of the
 causality running from unemployment to military expenditure regardless of
 how we measure military spending and determine group countries. In
 contrast, the causality running from military expenditure to unemployment
 receives empirical support if military expenditure is measured in terms of
 its share of GDP and if data are taken from middle- and low-income
 countries or non-OECD countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 253-267 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Military spending, Unemployment, Panel Granger causality, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105257 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105257 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:253-267




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Curtis Simon 
Author-X-Name-First: Curtis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Simon 
Author-Name: John Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Title: THE SUPPLY PRICE OF COMMITMENT: EVIDENCE FROM THE AIR FORCE ENLISTMENT BONUS PROGRAM 
Abstract:
  In fiscal year 1999, the US Air Force introduced a bonus program designed
 to encourage longer enlistment terms. This regime shift provides a unique
 opportunity to estimate the elasticity of labor supply at a new margin:
 the length of the employment contract. A $5000 bonus differential is
 estimated to increase the probability that a recruit will choose a 6-year
 enlistment over a 4-year enlistment by 30 percentage points. The program
 is found to be cost-effective relative to other policies to increase
 man-years. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 269-286 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Enlistment bonus, Term of enlistment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802221866 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802221866 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:269-286




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Author-Name: Guglielmo Maria Caporale 
Author-X-Name-First: Guglielmo Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Caporale 
Author-Name: Luis Gil-Alana 
Author-X-Name-First: Luis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gil-Alana 
Title: BASQUE TERRORISM: POLICE ACTION, POLITICAL MEASURES AND THE INFLUENCE OF VIOLENCE ON THE STOCK MARKET IN THE BASQUE COUNTRY 
Abstract:
  In the last 15 years, terrorist activity in the Basque Country has
 substantially decreased and strategies have changed. Whilst the type of
 killings has become more specialised (politicians, reporters, etc.), a new
 phenomenon based on urban guerrilla tactics, and called in Basque 'kale
 borroka' (street fighting), has emerged, creating an atmosphere of
 violence in the streets. The contribution of this paper is threefold.
 First, we create a daily measure of the level of violence in the area.
 Second, we examine if police action and the repressive policy measures
 adopted by the government since 2001 have been effective in reducing the
 intensity of violence. Third, we investigate whether the level of violence
 has had an effect on the stock market index in the Basque Country. The
 results, based on daily data from 1 July 2001 to 15 November 2005, suggest
 that the only effective measure to reduce violence was the banning of
 Herri Batasuna (HB), the radical party close to ETA supporters. Moreover,
 there was a decrease in the stock market index as a consequence of the
 violence in the area during the period under analysis. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 287-301 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: ETA, Terrorism, Economic impact, Stock exchange, Fractional integration, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701750676 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701750676 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:287-301




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cedric Laguerre 
Author-X-Name-First: Cedric 
Author-X-Name-Last: Laguerre 
Title: IS THE DEFENCE MARKET CONTESTABLE? THE CASE OF MILITARY AEROSPACE 
Abstract:
  I demonstrate the existence of two sources of contestability in the
 military aerospace market, within producing and export countries, through
 the State's triple role as unique buyer, regulator and seller. For the
 producing countries, I introduce the new concept, 'sovereignty price';
 that is, the profit a State agrees to grant to its defence firms to
 perpetuate their domestic activities. This subjective, evolutionary
 concept provides a dynamic character to the theory of contestable markets.
 Moreover, I show that contestability is more effective than antitrust
 policies and a solution of the cost disease. Empirical cases are shown to
 confirm the theoretical analysis. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 303-326 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Common Operating System, Contestable markets, Cost disease, Aerospace, Regulation, Sovereignty price, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802365044 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802365044 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:303-326




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni 
Author-X-Name-First: Luca 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 
Abstract:
  This paper tests the relationship between military expenditure and
 economic growth by including the impact of the share of military and
 civilian components of government expenditure in an economic growth model
 with endogenous technology. In this framework, we empirically consider the
 hypothesis of a non-linear effect of military expenditure on economic
 growth. Differences between the costs and benefits of the defence sector
 has traditionally explained the non-linear relationship suggesting that
 shocks to insecurity may also be a source of non-linearity as they
 determine a re-allocative effect within government expenditure. While
 parametric partial correlations are in line with empirical findings, the
 robustness of estimations is tested by using a non-parametric approach.
 The negative relationship between military expenditure and growth in
 countries with high levels of military burden predicted by theory becomes
 significant only after including a proxy for re-allocative effects in the
 growth equation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 327-339 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Economic growth, Military burden, Cross-section estimations, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690701589876 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701589876 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:327-339




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Sandholt Jensen 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandholt Jensen 
Author-Name: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch 
Author-X-Name-First: Kristian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Skrede Gleditsch 
Title: RAIN, GROWTH, AND CIVIL WAR: THE IMPORTANCE OF LOCATION 
Abstract:
	      We re-examine the Miguel <italic>et al.</italic> (2004) study
 of the impact of growth on civil war, using growth in rainfall as an
 instrument. Miguel <italic>et al</italic>. (2004) - in our view,
 erroneously - include countries participating in civil wars in other
 states. Restricting the conflict data to states with conflict on their own
 territory reduces the estimated impact of economic growth on civil war. We
 show how spatial correlations in rainfall growth and participation in
 civil conflicts induce a stronger apparent relationship in the
 mis-classified data.	       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 359-372 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690902868277 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242690902868277 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:359-372




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Katarina Keller 
Author-X-Name-First: Katarina 
Author-X-Name-Last: Keller 
Author-Name: Panu Poutvaara 
Author-X-Name-First: Panu 
Author-X-Name-Last: Poutvaara 
Author-Name: Andreas Wagener 
Author-X-Name-First: Andreas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wagener 
Title: MILITARY DRAFT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN OECD COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
	      Economic theory predicts that military conscription is
 associated with static inefficiencies as well as with dynamic distortions
 of the accumulation of human and physical capital. Relative to an economy
 with an all-volunteer force, output levels and growth rates should be
 lower in countries that rely on a military draft to recruit their army
 personnel. For OECD countries, we show that military conscription indeed
 has a statistically significantly negative impact on economic performance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 373-393 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802332994 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242690802332994 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrew M. Francis 
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Francis 
Title: THE HUMAN CAPITAL PEACE: DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT 
Abstract:
	      This paper explores the relationship between human capital
 and international conflict. In theory, human capital may increase the
 opportunity cost of military service and the economic cost of injury and
 loss of life in combat; it may decrease the benefits of conflict as human
 capital cannot be easily appropriated or transferred; it may affect
 societal norms toward peace and war; and it may alter military
 productivity through new technology and complementarities between military
 technology and personnel. Using a panel of politically relevant dyads, I
 find robust empirical evidence that human capital may significantly
 decrease the likelihood of militarized conflict between nations. In short,
 the findings suggest that promoting human capital-oriented development may
 help to increase peace in the world.	       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 395-411 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802682109 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242690802682109 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Bernauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bernauer 
Author-Name: Vally Koubi 
Author-X-Name-First: Vally 
Author-X-Name-Last: Koubi 
Author-Name: Fabio Ernst 
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ernst 
Title: DOES NEUTRALITY MAKE A DIFFERENCE? EXPLAINING PATTERNS OF SWISS DEFENSE SPENDING IN 1975-2001 
Abstract:
	      We study the behavior of defense spending in Switzerland over
 1975-2001. Our main interest is in determining how neutrality in
 international affairs (non-membership in military alliances) affects
 defense spending. We find that neutrality is associated with a perception
 of lower levels of external threat; hence it confers economic benefits in
 the form of a smaller defense burden. However, neutrality does not fully
 insulate a country from variations in the level of external threat in the
 global system as perceived by members of military alliances. Swiss defense
 spending has tracked very closely the spending trends - but at a lower
 average level - of the United States and other NATO countries. To the
 extent that post-Cold War threats, such as international terrorism,
 materialize primarily in the context of existing security alliances, Swiss
 military spending patterns observed in 1975-2001 are likely to remain the
 same in the future.	      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 413-422 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802051537 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242690802051537 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yemane Wolde-Rufael 
Author-X-Name-First: Yemane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde-Rufael 
Title: THE DEFENCE SPENDING-EXTERNAL DEBT NEXUS IN ETHIOPIA 
Abstract:
	      The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of defence
 spending and income on the evolution of Ethiopia's external debt over the
 period 1970-2005. Using the bounds test approach to cointegration and
 Granger causality tests, we find a long run and a causal relationship
 between external debt, defence spending and income. Defence spending had a
 positive and a significant impact on the stock of external debt while
 income had a negative and a statistically significant impact on external
 debt. Our findings suggest that an increase in defence spending
 contributes to the accumulation of Ethiopia's external debt, while an
 increase in economic growth helps Ethiopia to reduce its external debt.    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 423-436 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/03066150902868171 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03066150902868171 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:423-436




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow 
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow 
Title: Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 437-439 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802452313 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242690802452313 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:5:p:437-439




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Walter Enders 
Author-X-Name-First: Walter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Enders 
Author-Name: Yu Liu 
Author-X-Name-First: Yu 
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu 
Author-Name: Ruxandra Prodan 
Author-X-Name-First: Ruxandra 
Author-X-Name-Last: Prodan 
Title: FORECASTING SERIES CONTAINING OFFSETTING BREAKS: OLD SCHOOL AND NEW SCHOOL METHODS OF FORECASTING TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM 
Abstract:
  Transnational terrorism data are difficult to forecast because they
 contain an unknown number of structural breaks of unknown functional form.
 The rise of religious fundamentalism, the demise of the Soviet Union, and
 the rise of al Qaeda have changed the nature of transnational terrorism.
 'Old School' forecasting methods simply smooth or difference the data.
 'New School' methods use estimated break dates to control for regime
 shifts when forecasting. We compare the various forecasting methods using
 a Monte Carlo study with data containing different types of breaks. The
 study's results are used to forecast various types of transnational
 terrorist incidents. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 441-463 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Bai-Perron test, Nonlinear forecasting, Out-of-sample forecasts, Terrorism, Threshold models, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802425772 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802425772 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sacit Hadi Akdede 
Author-X-Name-First: Sacit Hadi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Akdede 
Author-Name: Ayla O&#x11f;us 
Author-X-Name-First: Ayla 
Author-X-Name-Last: O&#x11f;us 
Title: DEATH AS A MEASURE OF DURATION OF CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper introduces a new measure of conflict duration and argues that
 the number of deaths in a conflict can serve as such a measure. The paper
 demonstrates that there are information gains to this approach. The
 well-known conflict database of the International Peace Research Institute
 is compared with the database of the Center for Systemic Peace, which
 includes data on the number of deaths in addition to length of conflict.
 The number and distribution of conflicts vary; however, duration analysis
 based on the conventional measure of duration yields results that are
 robust over the above-mentioned datasets. We also show that the number of
 deaths, as a measure of duration, challenges some of the results based on
 the number of years as a measure of duration. In the 1990s, the duration
 of conflicts is significantly different from before when the duration
 measure is the number of years - we do not find a statistically
 significant distinction when the number of deaths is used. Ethnic
 conflicts have a longer survival time in terms of time but not in terms of
 number of fatalities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 465-476 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Duration models, Conflict duration, Ethnic conflicts, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105356 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105356 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:6:p:465-476




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mehmet Yaya 
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yaya 
Title: TERRORISM AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF TURKEY 
Abstract:
  Using a time series method called 'transfer function', this paper
 examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results
 indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which
 is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in
 Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over
 the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the
 tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist
 attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a
 neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 477-497 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Transfer function, Turkey, Terrorism, Tourism, Economic impact, 9/11, Second Persian Gulf War, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105414 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105414 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Albert Wijeweera 
Author-X-Name-First: Albert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijeweera 
Author-Name: Matthew Webb 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew 
Author-X-Name-Last: Webb 
Title: MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SRI LANKA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  In this paper, we employ a VAR analysis to examine the nexus between
 military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka which, due to the civil
 war there, has witnessed a significant increase in military spending over
 the last three decades while also recording healthy economic growth. The
 study finds that, compared with non-military spending, military spending
 exerts only a minimal positive impact on real GDP. Over a 10-year period,
 a 1% increase in non-military spending increases GDP by 1.6%. In contrast,
 military spending only increases GDP by 0.05%, suggesting that the
 economic benefits for Sri Lanka from a sustained peace may be
 considerable. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 499-508 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Military spending, Sri Lanka, Economic growth, VAR analysis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690902868301 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690902868301 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jason Briggeman 
Author-X-Name-First: Jason 
Author-X-Name-Last: Briggeman 
Author-Name: Jeremy Horpedahl 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Horpedahl 
Title: PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM: A COMMENT 
Abstract:
  Frey and Rohner (2007) propose that governments credibly commit to
 reconstruction of cultural monuments, as this would deter terrorist
 attacks on monuments. We contend that precommitment will serve primarily
 to redirect terrorist attacks toward non-replicable targets, possibly
 leading to loss of human life and physical capital at the expense of
 protecting monuments. The cost savings from lowering onsite security are
 minimal, thus funds would need to be redirected from other governmental
 activities to protect monuments. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 509-512 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
Keywords: Terrorism, Culture, Monuments, Counter-terrorism, Deterrence, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802682307 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802682307 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bruno Frey 
Author-X-Name-First: Bruno 
Author-X-Name-Last: Frey 
Author-Name: Dominic Rohner 
Author-X-Name-First: Dominic 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rohner 
Title: PROTECTING CULTURAL MONUMENTS AGAINST TERRORISM: A REPLY 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 513-514 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802682364 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802682364 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Atin Basuchoudhary 
Author-X-Name-First: Atin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Basuchoudhary 
Title: The Economics of War 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 515-516 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 20 
Year: 2009 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690902908370 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690902908370 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephanie Neuman 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephanie 
Author-X-Name-Last: Neuman 
Title: POWER, INFLUENCE, AND HIERARCHY: DEFENSE INDUSTRIES IN A UNIPOLAR WORLD 
Abstract:
  The global defense-industrial sector reflects the hierarchy of power in
 the post-Cold War world. As in the larger international system, the United
 States plays the dominant role in the defense sector as well. It is a
 comparative advantage often used by US policymakers to influence the
 foreign policy behavior of other states. Curiously, the radical
 concentration of the world's defense industrial sector, as described here,
 has received relatively little scrutiny from either academia or the media,
 even though it not only reflects the international order but provides the
 United States with considerable leverage in it. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-134 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: International Relations, Defense industries, Arms industries, Power, Influence, Unipolar, Globalization, Arms transfers, Arms exports, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105398 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105398 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Spagat 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Spagat 
Title: ETHICAL AND DATA-INTEGRITY PROBLEMS IN THE SECOND LANCET SURVEY OF MORTALITY IN IRAQ 
Abstract:
  This paper considers the second Lancet survey of mortality in Iraq
 published in October 2006. It presents some evidence suggesting ethical
 violations to the survey's respondents including endangerment, privacy
 breaches and violations in obtaining informed consent. Breaches of minimal
 disclosure standards examined include non-disclosure of the survey's
 questionnaire, data-entry form, data matching anonymised interviewer
 identifications with households and sample design. The paper also presents
 some evidence relating to data fabrication and falsification, which falls
 into nine broad categories. This evidence suggests that this survey cannot
 be considered a reliable or valid contribution towards knowledge about the
 extent of mortality in Iraq since 2003. Editor's Note: The authors of the
 Lancet II Study were given the opportunity to reply to this article. No
 reply has been forthcoming. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-41 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Iraq mortality, Lancet survey, Conflict, Ethics, Fabrication, Falsification, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690802496898 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690802496898 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Peter MacDonald 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: MacDonald 
Title: COUNTRY SURVEY XXI: THE UNITED KINGDOM 
Abstract:
  The UK defence economy has some distinctive features. Its Armed Forces
 have a worldwide capability reflected in modern air, land and sea forces
 with an expeditionary role. Its world role is further reflected in a
 nuclear capability and a high technology defence industrial base,
 substantial defence R&D with the UK as a major arms exporter. This survey
 focuses on the period 1970 to 2008. It explains the military-industrial
 complex and estimates a demand for military expenditure function. There
 follows an analysis of procurement and defence industrial policy. Future
 policy issues are outlined, namely, the costs of the UK's world role and
 its relations with European defence policy. It is concluded that the UK
 faces some difficult defence choices. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 43-63 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: UK defence economy, Resource accounting, Demand for military expenditure, Costs of conflict, Personnel, Outsourcing, Equipment, Defence output, Procurement policy, UK defence industrial base, Defence exports, Future problems and prospects, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105323 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105323 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Atin Basuchoudhary 
Author-X-Name-First: Atin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Basuchoudhary 
Author-Name: William Shughart 
Author-X-Name-First: William 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shughart 
Title: ON ETHNIC CONFLICT AND THE ORIGINS OF TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM 
Abstract:
  Using the ITERATE dataset, we explore the origins of transnational
 terrorist activity, from 1982 through 1997, in 118 countries. We model
 terrorism, not as a function of a nation's ethnic, religious or linguistic
 fractionalization, but as an independent measure of perceived ethnic
 tensions. When we control for institutional quality, evidence that
 political rights and civil liberties mitigate the terrorism-producing
 effects of ethnic tensions exists only since 1990. Economic freedoms, on
 the other hand, robustly reduce the number of terrorist attacks
 originating in ethnically tense societies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 65-87 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Ethnic tensions, Transnational terrorism, Political rights, Economic rights, Cold War, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690902868343 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690902868343 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:65-87




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: Julide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Nebile Korucu 
Author-X-Name-First: Nebile 
Author-X-Name-Last: Korucu 
Author-Name: Semsettin Karasu 
Author-X-Name-First: Semsettin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karasu 
Title: FURTHER EDUCATION OR RE-ENLISTMENT DECISION IN TURKISH ARMED FORCES: A SEEMINGLY UNRELATED PROBIT ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  Previous empirical studies examining the determinants of re-enlistment
 probabilities have generally employed a univariate approach and have
 suggested that expected further education increases the likelihood of
 joining the army. However, the re-enlistment and further education
 decisions can be interdependent. Accordingly, this study employs a
 seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model to jointly estimate the factors
 that influence both further education and re-enlistment decisions.
 Empirical analysis indicates that there is a correlation between the
 re-enlistment and further education decisions, revealing that previous
 single equation models might be misspecified. Moreover the geographical
 background, education level of the conscript, intention of further
 education and previous unemployment duration are influential in the
 re-enlistment decision. Additionally, the further education decision
 appears to be determined by family and sibship characteristics, education
 level and age. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 89-103 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Re-enlistment, Further education, Turkish Armed Forces, Seemingly unrelated probit, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105513 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105513 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:89-103




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta 
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta 
Author-Name: Alain Kabundi 
Author-X-Name-First: Alain 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kabundi 
Author-Name: Emmanuel Ziramba 
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ziramba 
Title: THE EFFECT OF DEFENSE SPENDING ON US OUTPUT: A FACTOR AUGMENTED VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (FAVAR) APPROACH 
Abstract:
  Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at
 best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a
 positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a
 Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model estimated with 116
 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01 to 2005:02. Overall,
 the results show that a positive shock to the growth rate of the real
 defense spending translates to a positive short-run effect on the growth
 rate of real GNP lasting up to ten quarters, but the effect is significant
 only for two quarters. Beyond the tenth quarter, the effect becomes
 negative and shows signs of slow reversal at around the 17th quarter. Our
 results tend to indicate that the mixed empirical evidence, based on
 small-scale Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC)
 models, could be a result of a small information set not capturing the
 true theoretical relationships between the two variables of interest. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 135-147 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Defense spending, Output, FAVAR, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903569056 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903569056 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:135-147




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Olaf De Groot 
Author-X-Name-First: Olaf 
Author-X-Name-Last: De Groot 
Title: THE SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF CONFLICT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES IN AFRICA 
Abstract:
  In this article, the influence of conflict on the economies of
 neighbouring countries is discussed. The results from previous papers show
 a strong negative effect for an entire area around a country suffering
 from conflict, but this paper reaches a different conclusion, by using
 more recent data and adjusting the methodology previously employed.
 Additionally, a new type of contiguity matrix is constructed and used in
 the actual analysis. The final analysis consists of a large number of
 regressions and concludes that conflict actually has two opposing effects.
 First, like conflict countries themselves, directly contiguous countries
 actually suffer from the negative effects of proximate conflict. Secondly,
 however, there is also a positive spillover of conflict, which affects
 non-contiguous countries and this effect is larger for countries that are
 closer to the conflict country. The results from the paper predominantly
 hold for the most violent kind of conflict. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 149-164 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Conflict, Economic growth, Spatial econometrics, Africa, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903570575 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903570575 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:149-164




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Bozzoli 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bozzoli 
Author-Name: Tilman Bruck 
Author-X-Name-First: Tilman 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bruck 
Author-Name: Simon Sottsas 
Author-X-Name-First: Simon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sottsas 
Title: A SURVEY OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC COSTS OF CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper defines the global economic costs of conflict and suggests two
 key criteria, namely comprehensiveness and consistency, which are
 necessary for a valid calculation of such costs. A critical review of the
 literature reveals that most studies focus on national income losses,
 using counterfactual regression models, finding a negative impact on
 growth both for conflict countries themselves and for their neighbors.
 However, the debate is quite fragmented and the literature fails to
 combine these insights in a comprehensive and consistent manner.
 Furthermore, there is little work thus far on integrating aggregate and
 micro-level estimates of the costs of conflict. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 165-176 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: War, Conflict, Costs, Growth, Methodology, Survey, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903568934 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903568934 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:165-176




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfria 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfria 
Author-Name: Paulina Correa-Burrows 
Author-X-Name-First: Paulina 
Author-X-Name-Last: Correa-Burrows 
Title: EFFECTS OF MILITARY SPENDING ON THE PROFITABILITY OF SPANISH DEFENCE CONTRACTORS 
Abstract:
  The traditional view of the defence industry obtaining large profits from
 contracts with the Ministry of Defence relies on several assumptions.
 Among these are the use of such arrangements as an instrument of
 industrial policy, the strong market power enjoyed by prime contractors,
 and the inefficiency encouraged by the sector. The findings show that
 defence contracts have a positive effect on profits, as well as the prizes
 for innovation and the market power enjoyed by some defence subsectors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 177-192 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Defence industry, Defence procurement, Profits, Spain, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903569007 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903569007 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:177-192




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mete Feridun 
Author-X-Name-First: Mete 
Author-X-Name-Last: Feridun 
Author-Name: Muhammad Shahbaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahbaz 
Title: FIGHTING TERRORISM: ARE MILITARY MEASURES EFFECTIVE? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY 
Abstract:
  The present article aims at investigating the causal relationship between
 defense spending and terrorism in Turkey using the Autoregressive
 Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure and Granger-causality
 analysis. The findings reveal that there exists a unidirectional causality
 running form terrorist attacks to defense spending as expected, but not
 vice versa. In the light of this finding it can be inferred that military
 anti-terrorism measures alone are not sufficient to prevent terrorism. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 193-205 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Defense spending, Terrorism, Anti-terrorism, Causality testing, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903568884 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903568884 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:193-205




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shabbar Jaffry 
Author-X-Name-First: Shabbar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffry 
Author-Name: Yaseen Ghulam 
Author-X-Name-First: Yaseen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghulam 
Author-Name: Alexandros Apostolakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Alexandros 
Author-X-Name-Last: Apostolakis 
Title: ANALYSING QUITS AND SEPARATIONS FROM THE ROYAL NAVY 
Abstract:
  Manning difficulties and retention of skilled personnel is a timely issue
 in the British armed forces, and especially in the all-volunteer Royal
 Navy. Allied with difficulties of matching personnel numbers and posts,
 significant skill mismatches can take a long time to eradicate, with
 obvious financial and operational penalties. In the light of these
 factors, a holistic understanding of the exit behaviour of naval personnel
 is vital for naval manpower planners. This paper analyses ratings'
 voluntary (quits) and involuntary (separation) exit patterns from the
 Royal Navy using an independent competing risks hazard regression analysis
 framework. The results show that both voluntary and involuntary exits are
 pro cyclical with respect to macroeconomic and labour market conditions
 for both male and female ratings. Male ratings are more likely to quit or
 separate due to a lack of promotion to higher ranks as compared with
 females. Male ratings are also more likely to quit as a result of a hectic
 operational tempo when compared with their female counterparts. Frequency
 of sea/shore deployments also seems to exert a significant effect with
 respect to quits and separation outcomes of both genders. In terms of
 marital status married males are less likely to quit compared with their
 unmarried male counterparts, whereas the opposite is the case for female
 ratings. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 207-228 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Retention, Early exits, Competing risks framework, Duration analysis, Royal Navy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903568959 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903568959 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:207-228




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elda Pema 
Author-X-Name-First: Elda 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pema 
Author-Name: Stephen Mehay 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehay 
Title: THE IMPACT OF THE HIGH SCHOOL JUNIOR ROTC PROGRAM: DOES TREATMENT TIMING AND INTENSITY MATTER? 
Abstract:
  The Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps is a high school program that
 combines classroom teaching with extracurricular activities. The program
 is located primarily in inner city schools and serves at-risk students.
 Its goals are multidimensional and include military preparation and
 improving academic achievement. Using High School and Beyond data we find
 that the program's effects depend on the timing and intensity of
 involvement. Test scores, graduation rates, and enlistments are higher for
 students who participate early in high school and for those who persist in
 the program. Conversely, we find few effects for students participating in
 the last two years of high school. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 229-247 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: JROTC, High school achievement, At-risk youth, Enlistments, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903105554 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903105554 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:229-247




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Boehmer 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Boehmer 
Title: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND VIOLENT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT: 1875-1999 
Abstract:
  Are states with growing economies more likely to become involved in
 violent interstate conflicts? This project examines whether economic
 growth increases international conflict using a global sample of states
 from 1875-1999. The theory argues that multi-year economic growth
 increases the resolve of state leaders to reciprocate and escalate
 militarized interstate conflicts, thus increasing the occurrence of
 fatalities or war. The results show that economic growth, but not growth
 of military expenditures, raises the risk of violent interstate conflicts.
 The results do not support the proposition that economic slowdowns result
 in violent interstate conflicts. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 249-268 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: War, Economic growth, Military expenditures, GDP growth, Long-term growth, Military crises, Diversionary conflict, Internal conflict, Civil conflict, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903568801 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903568801 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:249-268




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raul Caruso 
Author-X-Name-First: Raul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso 
Title: BUTTER, GUNS AND ICE-CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 
Abstract:
  This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil
 wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that
 defines a two-sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle
 to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In
 an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the
 production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between
 'butter', 'guns' and 'ice-cream'. Following the theoretical insights the
 empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and
 different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit
 specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the
 size of manufacturing sector. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 269-283 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Civil war, Resource curse, Butter, guns and ice-cream, Structure of the economy, Panel probit analysis, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242690903568975 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690903568975 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:269-283




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Author-Name: Stephanos Papadamou 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephanos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Papadamou 
Author-Name: Apostolos Stagiannis 
Author-X-Name-First: Apostolos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stagiannis 
Title: ARMED CONFLICTS AND CAPITAL MARKETS: THE CASE OF THE ISRAELI MILITARY OFFENSIVE IN THE GAZA STRIP 
Abstract:
  This paper addresses the issue of the impact that armed conflicts have on
 capital markets. It focuses on the recent Israeli military offensive in
 the Gaza Strip launched in late 2008 and concluded in early 2009. The
 paper examines the effects of this armed conflict on the return and
 volatility of the general index of the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), as
 well as on the government bond index. Furthermore, event study methodology
 is applied to identify markets' reactions to the Israeli military
 operations in the Gaza Strip. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 357-365 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Arab-Israeli conflict, Stock-markets volatility, War and financial markets, Monetary policy, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491712 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491712 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:357-365




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Asali 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Asali 
Title: JEWISH-ARAB WAGE GAP: WHAT ARE THE CAUSES? 
Abstract:
  Using a panel of cross sections, this study measures wage differentials
 between Israeli-Arab and Jewish workers between 1991 and 2003. The wage
 gap is then decomposed into components corresponding to human capital,
 occupational segregation, selectivity, and a residual (unexplained gap).
 The study shows large fluctuations in the wage gap, almost doubling in the
 last decade, reaching 75% in 1999. Because sudden changes in the
 underlying characteristics of the populations are not likely, a large part
 of the level and changes in the wage gap were captured by the residual -
 possibly one of the implications of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian
 conflict. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 367-380 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Wage gap, Labor-market discrimination, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491716 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491716 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:367-380




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ayal Kimhi 
Author-X-Name-First: Ayal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kimhi 
Title: JEWISH HOUSEHOLDS, ARAB HOUSEHOLDS, AND INCOME INEQUALITY IN RURAL ISRAEL: RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE ISRAELI-ARAB CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper quantifies the roles of ethnicity, gender and location in
 rural income inequality in Israel. Between 10 and 16% of rural income
 inequality is explained by the Jewish-Arab divide. Schooling and household
 size, which are respectively much lower and higher among the rural Arab
 population, also explain significant fractions of income inequality.
 Location and gender of the household head explain much smaller fractions.
 Education-enhancing policies directed at the lower end of the schooling
 distribution, and at Arab municipalities in particular, are recommended to
 reduce per capita income inequality in rural Israel and narrow the
 Jewish-Arab gap. This could contribute to reducing the tension between the
 Jewish majority and the Arab minority in Israel, and to creating a better
 atmosphere for their neighborly coexistence. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 381-394 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Inequality, Conflict, Rural, Schooling, Gender, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491717 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491717 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:381-394




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aamer Abu-qarn 
Author-X-Name-First: Aamer 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abu-qarn 
Title: ECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE ISRAELI-ARAB CONFLICT: INTRODUCTION 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 285-289 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491720 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491720 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:285-289




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aamer Abu-qarn 
Author-X-Name-First: Aamer 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abu-qarn 
Title: THE DEFENCE-GROWTH NEXUS REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM THE ISRAELI-ARAB CONFLICT 
Abstract:
  This paper revisits the defence-growth nexus for the rivals of the
 Israeli-Arab conflict over the last four decades. To this end, we utilize
 the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test and the generalized variance
 decomposition. Contrary to the conventional wisdom and many earlier
 studies, we fail to detect any persistent adverse impact of military
 expenditures on economic growth. Our conclusions are kept intact even when
 we account for the possibility of endogenous structural breaks and during
 the post-1979 peace treaty period. Our findings imply insignificant peace
 dividends once the conflict is resolved and the military spending is cut
 to internationally acceptable standards. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 291-300 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Growth, Middle East, Israeli-Arab conflict, Causality, Generalized forecast error variance decomposition, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491699 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491699 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:291-300




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elisa Cavatorta 
Author-X-Name-First: Elisa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cavatorta 
Title: UNOBSERVED COMMON FACTORS IN MILITARY EXPENDITURE INTERACTIONS ACROSS MENA COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
  In this paper we explore the patterns of interactions between military
 expenditure shares in the MENA region over the period 1979-2007. We
 explore whether there are latent common factors that impact on the
 military expenditures of 15 countries in the MENA region and whether these
 factors can be interpreted. Unobserved common factors induce
 cross-sectional dependence and may lead to traditional panel-time series
 estimators being inconsistent. To identify these latent factors we apply
 principal component analysis. We evaluate the interpretation of the
 estimated factors using the multiple-indicator multiple-cause model. We
 find that there is a substantial evidence of cross-sectional dependence in
 the MENA region, induced mainly by two unobserved factors, but these
 factors are difficult to interpret. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 301-316 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Cross-sectional dependence, Unobserved common factors, MIMIC, Military expenditures, MENA, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491703 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491703 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:301-316




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Denis Larocque 
Author-X-Name-First: Denis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Larocque 
Author-Name: Genevieve Lincourt 
Author-X-Name-First: Genevieve 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lincourt 
Author-Name: Michel Normandin 
Author-X-Name-First: Michel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Normandin 
Title: MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TERRORIST SHOCKS IN ISRAEL 
Abstract:
  This paper estimates a structural vector autoregression to assess the
 empirical effects of terrorism on output and prices in Israel. Long-run
 restrictions are used to interpret the effects in terms of aggregate
 demand and supply curves. The responses indicate that the immediate
 effects of terrorism are similar to those associated with a negative
 demand shock. Such a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve is
 consistent with the existence of adverse effects on most components of
 aggregate expenditure documented in previous empirical studies. The
 long-term consequences of terrorism are similar to those related to a
 negative supply shock. Such a leftward shift of the long-run aggregate
 supply curve agrees with adverse effects on the determinants of the
 potential output, such as contractions of physical capital highlighted in
 earlier work, as well as reductions of technological innovations and
 slowdowns of net immigrations, which have not been fully analyzed in the
 existing empirical literature. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-336 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Output, Price, and Terrorist Indices, Structural Vector Autoregressions, Long-run Identifying Restrictions, Dynamic Responses and Variance Decompositions, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491705 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491705 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:317-336




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward Sayre 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sayre 
Title: POLITICAL INSTABILITY, CLOSURES AND LABOR REALLOCATION IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the labor market responses to conflict and labor
 market disruptions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. From 1987 to 1995 the
 West Bank and Gaza Strip witnessed an increase in instability as political
 conflict disrupted the economy. This paper finds that disruptions later in
 the period are associated with increased reallocation between sectors and
 lower unemployment, compared to equivalent shocks earlier in the period.
 Additionally, the effects of these shocks are primarily felt by younger
 workers. The findings are consistent with a decrease in human capital
 investment during this time, but several alternative explanations are also
 explored. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 337-355 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Unemployment, Closures, West Bank, Gaza, Political instability, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491710 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491710 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:337-355




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Anderton 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton 
Title: CHOOSING GENOCIDE: ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES ON THE DISTURBING RATIONALITY OF RACE MURDER 
Abstract:
  An economic theory of genocide is presented with application to
 Rwanda-1994. The theory considers 'macro' conditions under which an
 authority group chooses genocide and 'micro' conditions that facilitate
 the spread of genocide. From the macro perspective, a bargaining model
 highlights four rational explanations for an authority's choice of
 genocide: prevention of loss of power, indivisibility, elimination of a
 persistent rival, and political bias. From the micro perspective, an
 evolutionary game model shows how supporters of genocide gain the upper
 hand in group dynamics over resisters and bystanders. The theory and
 application suggest that the conditions for genocide are not exceptional. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 459-486 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Genocide, Conflict, Bargaining, Game Theory, Rwanda, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.513478 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.513478 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:459-486




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kwang-Jin Kim 
Author-X-Name-First: Kwang-Jin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim 
Author-Name: Patrick James 
Author-X-Name-First: Patrick 
Author-X-Name-Last: James 
Title: LEARNING FROM THE GREAT WAR? THE ORIGIN OF DEMOCRATIC PEACE 
Abstract:
  This paper explores the effects of dyadic democracy on both the
 occurrence and level of militarized disputes, with an emphasis on
 longitudinal tendencies and degrees of violence. We argue that experience
 with total war, namely, the First World War, induced democratic
 constraints on conflictual foreign policies via significant change in
 military manpower systems. Experience with total war led democratic
 governments to recognize each other's sensitivity to public concerns about
 the burdens imposed by conscription. Thus, democratic peace in the modern
 era can be traced to (1) total war experience for 'old' democracies; and
 (2) the level of violence in foreign policies exceeding a threshold that
 induces public concerns about the burden of conscription. Empirical
 testing based on the Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) data set shows
 a significantly different effect for democratic dyads on the onset of
 militarized disputes before and after the First World War. Democratic
 dyads, however, do not reduce the likelihood of disputes in cases with a
 low level of violence regardless of the era in question. This implies that
 conflict-averse behavior between democracies is a product of learning from
 the experience of total war that leads to greater government awareness of
 public concern about more intense foreign policy actions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 487-505 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.513493 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.513493 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:487-505




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Curtis Simon 
Author-X-Name-First: Curtis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Simon 
Author-Name: John Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Title: ARMY RE-ENLISTMENT DURING OIF/OEF: BONUSES, DEPLOYMENT, AND STOP-LOSS 
Abstract:
  In 2004, stretched by wartime deployments, the US Army countered
 declining retention by increasing re-enlistment bonuses and implementing
 stop-loss to prevent soldiers from separating at the end of their
 enlistment. We estimate the effects of bonuses, deployment, and stop-loss
 on re-enlistment between FY 2002 and 2006. We estimate that the baseline
 propensity to re-enlist fell by 20%. However, we find that deployed
 soldiers are more likely to re-enlist and that the estimated effects of
 re-enlistment bonuses are similar to those estimated in peacetime. We
 evaluate the reasons for our findings, and calculate the cost
 effectiveness of re-enlistment bonuses. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 507-527 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Re-enlistment, Deployment, Bonuses, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.513488 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.513488 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:507-527




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Title: AGENDA FOR DEFENSE AND PEACE ECONOMICS 
Abstract:
  This brief introduction celebrates the 20th Anniversary of the Journal,
 Defence and Peace Economics. Suggesting elements of an agenda for the
 future of this branch of economics, I raise several topics that are new
 and that seem to indicate that the field will expand and shift focus
 substantially in future years. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 529-534 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Financial warfare, Non-sustainability of US dominance, Emergence of China and India, Evolution of new patterns in defense, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.522050 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.522050 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:529-534




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alan King 
Author-X-Name-First: Alan 
Author-X-Name-Last: King 
Title: THE EFFECT OF 9/11 ON US EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF TOURISM 
Abstract:
  Several studies have investigated whether the terrorist attacks of
 September 11, 2001, have had an ongoing or merely transitory effect on US
 trade in tourism. All conclude in favor of the latter. However,
 limitations in either the data and/or methodology employed by these
 studies give cause to query their findings. The present study avoids these
 limitations and finds strong evidence that, once other factors are held
 constant, real US exports and imports of tourism have both remained
 significantly below their pre-2001 level. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 535-546 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Cointegration, Exports, Imports, Terrorism, Tourism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.528253 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.528253 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:535-546




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Niklas Hanes 
Author-X-Name-First: Niklas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanes 
Author-Name: Erik Norlin 
Author-X-Name-First: Erik 
Author-X-Name-Last: Norlin 
Author-Name: Magnus Sjostrom 
Author-X-Name-First: Magnus 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sjostrom 
Title: THE CIVIL RETURNS OF MILITARY TRAINING: A STUDY OF YOUNG MEN IN SWEDEN 
Abstract:
  The purpose of our study was to examine the effect of military training
 on the earnings of young men in Sweden. The analysis is based on the
 cohort of males born in 1973. This cohort was conscripted during a time of
 rapid change in Swedish security policy and substantial cutbacks in the
 armed forces. As a consequence, a relatively large proportion of the
 cohort was assigned a service category after the enlistment test but one
 third of these individuals were never conscripted. We argue that these
 organizational changes, along with data on important background variables,
 make it possible to rely on selection on observables. A clear finding is
 that military training has a positive effect on annual earnings at the age
 of 30 for those men in the category 'private soldier' who do not
 subsequently obtain a high level of educational. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 547-565 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Earnings, Conscription, Enlistment test, Military training, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.528245 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.528245 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alfredo Paloyo 
Author-X-Name-First: Alfredo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paloyo 
Author-Name: Colin Vance 
Author-X-Name-First: Colin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vance 
Author-Name: Matthias Vorell 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthias 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vorell 
Title: THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS AND CLOSURES IN GERMANY 
Abstract:
  We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a
 number of socioeconomic indicators within the peripheries of military
 bases. The base realignments and closures in Germany are used as an
 exogenous source of variation that allows us to identify the effect of a
 demand shock on household income, output, unemployment, and tax revenue
 within a specified buffer zone around each base. The analysis covers 298
 communities for the period 2003-2007. Consistent with evidence found
 elsewhere, we find that these base adjustments have only a marginal impact
 on the local community in which the bases are located. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 567-579 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Armed forces, Base closure, Defense drawdown, Demand shock, Geographic information system, Regional adjustment, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.524778 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.524778 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Arce 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce 
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: DEFENCE AND PEACE ECONOMICS: THE SECOND DECADE IN RETROSPECT 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 395-407 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.512195 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.512195 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:395-407




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: THE CASE FOR DEFENCE 
Abstract:
  What is the case for defence and is it a worthwhile investment? This
 question is addressed for two contrasting nations, namely, the UK and New
 Zealand. Economists have a set of standard analytical tools for addressing
 the question but they are difficult to operationalise. This paper provides
 policy-relevant answers. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 409-426 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Defence, UK, New Zealand, economics problem, investment, security, public goods, public choice, international trade, benefits, free riding, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.511024 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.511024 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Ron Smith 
Author-X-Name-First: Ron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GRANGER CAUSALITY: A CRITICAL REVIEW 
Abstract:
  A large literature has used tests for Granger (1969) non-causality, GNC,
 to examine the interaction of military spending with the economy. Such
 tests answer a specific although quite limited question: can one reject
 the null hypothesis that one variable does not help predict another? If
 one can reject, there is said to be Granger causality, GC. Although the
 limitations of GNC tests are well known, they are often not emphasised in
 the applied literature and so may be forgotten. This paper considers the
 econometric and methodological issues involved and illustrates them with
 data for the US and other countries. There are three main issues. First,
 the tests may not be informative about the substantive issue, the
 interaction of military expenditure and the economy, since Granger
 causality does not correspond to the usual notion of economic causality.
 To determine the relationship of the two notions of causality requires an
 identified structural model. Second, the tests are very sensitive to
 specification. GNC testing is usually done in the context of a vector
 autoregression, VAR, and the test results are sensitive to the variables
 and deterministic terms included in the VAR, lag length, sample or
 observation window used, treatment of integration and cointegration and
 level of significance. Statistical criteria may not be very informative
 about these choices. Third, since the parameters are not structural, the
 test results may not be stable over different time periods or different
 countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 427-441 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Military spending, Economic growth, Causality, VAR, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.501185 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.501185 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: B. Peter Rosendorff 
Author-X-Name-First: B. Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rosendorff 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: SUICIDE TERRORISM AND THE BACKLASH EFFECT 
Abstract:
  This paper presents a game-theoretic model of suicide terrorism
 containing three agents: the terrorist leader; a targeted government; and
 potential terrorist supporters. Supporters join the terrorist group if
 they gain more from their participation than from their economic
 opportunities. Preemptive measures by the government can result in a
 backlash that encourages recruitment through new grievances. Suicide
 attacks can also lead to recruitment. Increases in preemption costs and/or
 economic opportunities can reduce the overall level of terrorism, while
 increasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks. An increase in the
 effect of preemption on recruitment, or the propaganda effect of suicide
 bombings has the opposite effect of increasing normal and suicide attacks,
 but decreasing the proportion of suicide to normal attacks in the
 terrorist organization's strategy profile. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 443-457 
Issue: 5-6 
Volume: 21 
Year: 2010 
Keywords: Backlash, Suicide terrorism, Game theory, Preemption, Terrorism, Recruitment, Mobilization, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491679 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491679 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:21:y:2010:i:5-6:p:443-457




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: P. B. Dixon 
Author-X-Name-First: P. B. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dixon 
Author-Name: J. A. Giesecke 
Author-X-Name-First: J. A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Giesecke 
Author-Name: M. T. Rimmer 
Author-X-Name-First: M. T. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rimmer 
Author-Name: A. Rose 
Author-X-Name-First: A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rose 
Title: THE ECONOMIC COSTS TO THE U.S. OF CLOSING ITS BORDERS: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  We use a CGE model to simulate the effects of a one-year US border
 closure. Relative to previously used input-output modeling, CGE modeling
 offers a flexible framework for capturing bottleneck and labor-market
 effects. Our analysis suggests that the costs of a prolonged closure could
 be much greater than indicated by input-output studies. We find that
 cutting all imports by 95% in an environment of sticky real wages would
 reduce GDP by 48%. However, if bottleneck imports (mainly oil) were exempt
 and workers accepted real wage cuts then the GDP reduction would be only
 11%. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 85-97 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Border closure, Strategic reserves, Bottleneck imports, Dynamic CGE, Terrorism, Pandemics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491658 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491658 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacob Alex Klerman 
Author-X-Name-First: Jacob Alex 
Author-X-Name-Last: Klerman 
Author-Name: David Loughran 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Loughran 
Title: WHAT HAPPENS TO THE EARNINGS OF MILITARY RESERVISTS WHEN THEY ARE ACTIVATED? EVIDENCE FROM ADMINISTRATIVE DATA 
Abstract:
  From 2001 through 2008, the US Department of Defense (DoD) has activated
 more than 700,000 military reservists. Activation imposes a variety of
 costs on reservists. Among those costs is potentially a decline in total
 earnings during the period of activation. In this paper, we use
 administrative data on military and civilian earnings to estimate how
 earnings change when reservists are activated and the causal effect of
 activation. Contrary to press accounts and DoD survey evidence, our
 estimates indicate that, on average, the earnings of activated reservists
 increase substantially when they are activated and that earnings losses
 are not common. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-19 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Reserves, Civilian earnings, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491685 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491685 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles Anderton 
Author-X-Name-First: Charles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton 
Author-Name: John Carter 
Author-X-Name-First: John 
Author-X-Name-Last: Carter 
Title: CONFLICT DATASETS: A PRIMER FOR ACADEMICS, POLICYMAKERS, AND PRACTITIONERS 
Abstract:
  Prominent conflict datasets used in the social scientific study of war
 and peace are summarized. These include datasets for armed conflicts
 (e.g., COW and UCDP/PRIO wars and sub-war conflicts), terrorism (e.g., GTD
 and ITERATE terrorist incidents), and events (e.g., WEIS, KEDS, and VRA
 cooperative and conflict actions). Topics explored include the diversity
 of conflict types, alternative definitions of war and sub-war conflict,
 historical patterns of violence in the international system, and degree of
 overlap across datasets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 21-42 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Conflict, Datasets, War, Terrorism, Genocide, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491677 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491677 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jun Zhuang 
Author-X-Name-First: Jun 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhuang 
Author-Name: Vicki Bier 
Author-X-Name-First: Vicki 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bier 
Title: SECRECY AND DECEPTION AT EQUILIBRIUM, WITH APPLICATIONS TO ANTI-TERRORISM RESOURCE ALLOCATION 
Abstract:
  In this work, we develop a game-theoretic model for whether and how a
 first mover should disclose her resource allocation. Our model allows us
 to explore whether the first mover should disclose correct information
 about her resource allocation, incorrect information, or no information.
 Although we study secrecy and deception specifically in the
 homeland-security context where the first mover is assumed to be the
 defender, our work can also provide insights in other contexts, such as
 business competition. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 43-61 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Secrecy and deception, Truthful disclosure, Homeland security, Resource allocation, Game theory, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491668 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491668 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Colin Jennings 
Author-X-Name-First: Colin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jennings 
Title: INTRA-GROUP COMPETITION AND INTER-GROUP CONFLICT: AN APPLICATION TO NORTHERN IRELAND 
Abstract:
  This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in
 conflict settings. The 'credibility rationale', argues that hawks may
 actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The 'bargaining
 rationale' predicts that while doves are more likely to secure peace,
 post-conflict hawks may be rationally selected. The 'social psychological
 rationale' captures the idea of a competition over which group can form
 the strongest identity. Dove selection can be predicted during conflict,
 but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the 'expressive rationale'
 predicts that regardless of the underlying nature of the game the large
 group nature of decision-making in rendering individual decision makers
 non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to
 make choices based primarily on emotions. Finally, the paper analyses the
 extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral
 history over the last 25 years. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 63-83 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Conflict, Leadership, Strategic delegation, Consociation, Northern Ireland, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491672 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491672 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric van Um 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric 
Author-X-Name-Last: van Um 
Title: DISCUSSING CONCEPTS OF TERRORIST RATIONALITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR COUNTERTERRORISM POLICY 
Abstract:
  Many researchers on terrorism tend to characterize terrorists as
 instrumentally rational and politically motivated. Empirically, however,
 terrorists often seem to deviate from instrumentally rational behavior and
 to be motivated by other than political reasons. This paper details the
 explanatory power of various concepts of terrorist rationality
 incorporating motivations beyond political ones. Results show that none of
 the concepts discussed accounts for all terrorist actions but all of the
 concepts are capable of explaining certain aspects of the phenomenon of
 terrorism. A discussion follows on the appropriateness of specific
 counterterrorism measures for the concepts of rationality and motivations
 identified. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 161-179 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Terrorism, Rational choice, Concepts of rationality, Motivation, Counterterrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542337 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542337 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Syed Mansoob Murshed 
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mansoob 
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed 
Title: THREAT PERCEPTIONS IN EUROPE: DOMESTIC TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL CRIME 
Abstract:
  This paper focuses on two aspects of insecurity for the European Union:
 domestic terrorism and international crime. In the former case, such as
 with radicalized Islam in the West, identity is crucial to the putative
 terrorist, solving the group's collective action problem. This paper
 models the strategic interaction between the government and a potential
 terrorist group. Space needs to be created so that Muslim migrants are
 able to merge their personal identities within their adopted European
 homelands and the socio-economic disadvantage faced by Muslims in Europe
 needs redressing. In addition, a macro-model is sketched of drugs
 production in a conflict-ridden developing country, where it is argued
 that demand-side policies of regulation may be superior to policies aimed
 at eradicating supply. Aid to fragile drug producing states should be
 broad-based and poverty reducing, not just benefiting warlords. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 181-192 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: European security, Conflict, Terrorism, Identity, Narcotics trade, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542338 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542338 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:181-192




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Regina Heller 
Author-X-Name-First: Regina 
Author-X-Name-Last: Heller 
Title: NOTIONS OF (IN)SECURITY WITHIN THE EU. HOW EUROPEAN POLICY-MAKERS VIEW THE SOURCES AND COSTS OF TERRORISM AND ORGANISED CRIME 
Abstract:
  This article maps notions of (in)security and security policy within the
 European Union (EU) since the 1990s using the cases of terrorism and
 organised crime. It traces interpretations of European policy-makers about
 the sources and costs that these two human-induced insecurities incur on
 Europe's societies and identifies the rationalities underlying the
 respective perceptions and policy actions. The analysis reveals that there
 are different logics at work that guide the economics of security: path
 dependency, reactive logics, emotions, integration dynamics and
 institutional interests, external pressures and more recently also
 considerations about the potential effects on the European economy.
 However, the EU's attempts to model cost scenarios still remain
 underdeveloped. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 193-216 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Costs of (in)security, European Union, Notions of insecurity, Organised crime, Security policy, Terrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542339 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542339 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Fielding 
Author-X-Name-First: David 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fielding 
Author-Name: Anja Shortland 
Author-X-Name-First: Anja 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shortland 
Title: HOW DO TOURISTS REACT TO POLITICAL VIOLENCE? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TOURISM IN EGYPT 
Abstract:
  This paper uses a detailed database of political violence in Egypt to
 study European and US tourists' attitudes towards a conflict region. We
 study the heterogeneous impacts of different dimensions of political
 violence and counter-violence on tourist flows to Egypt in the 1990s. Both
 US and EU tourists respond negatively to attacks on tourists, but are not
 influenced by casualties arising in confrontations between domestic
 groups. However, European tourists are sensitive to the counter-violence
 measures implemented by the Egyptian government. There is also evidence of
 arrivals of tourists into Egypt rising when fatalities in the
 Israeli/Palestinian conflict increase. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 217-243 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Tourism, Political violence, Egypt, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542340 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542340 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Marti Sempere 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Marti 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sempere 
Title: THE EUROPEAN SECURITY INDUSTRY. A RESEARCH AGENDA 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the industry that produces the goods and services
 required to protect citizens from insecurity. It presents a definition of
 this economic sector useful in setting its boundaries, and it briefly
 describes the main types of industries operating within the sector. The
 paper introduces some ideas for a research agenda that could assist in
 unveiling the main features of this industry, as well as its strengths and
 weaknesses, to solve the security needs of society in an efficient and
 effective manner. It analyses methods for gathering information regarding
 suppliers, customers, and other market agents. Finally, it outlines ways
 for assessing market performance. The rational behind the agenda, the
 various approaches and the potential difficulties to be faced, should the
 agenda be implemented, are shortly outlined. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 245-264 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Security industry, Security market, Terrorism and organised crime countermeasures, Competition, Market performance, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542342 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542342 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tilman Bruck 
Author-X-Name-First: Tilman 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bruck 
Author-Name: Michael Brzoska 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brzoska 
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Title: THE ECONOMICS OF SECURITY: A EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE 
Abstract:
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 99-104 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.562003 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.562003 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:99-104




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fernanda Llussa 
Author-X-Name-First: Fernanda 
Author-X-Name-Last: Llussa 
Author-Name: Jose Tavares 
Author-X-Name-First: Jose 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tavares 
Title: THE ECONOMICS OF TERRORISM: A (SIMPLE) TAXONOMY OF THE LITERATURE 
Abstract:
  We draw on existing surveys on the economics of terrorism, classifying
 the contributions to the field by theme, main approach and methodology.
 Research articles are divided into the themes: Definition and measurement
 of terrorist activities; Nature of terrorists; Utility cost of terrorism;
 Impact of terrorism on aggregate output; Terrorism and specific sectors of
 activity; Terrorism and economic policy; and Counter-terrorist policies.
 For the set of papers examined, as well as for each theme, we divide the
 papers by main approach - macroeconomic/microeconomic - and methodology -
 theoretical/empirical. We find wide variation in approach/methodology
 across research themes, suggesting extensive research opportunities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-123 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Terrorism, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, Theory, Empirics, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542331 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542331 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:105-123




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Catherine Muller 
Author-X-Name-First: Catherine 
Author-X-Name-Last: Muller 
Title: THE ECONOMICS OF TERRORISM FROM A POLICY-MAKER'S PERSPECTIVE 
Abstract:
  This paper introduces a brief framework on the political decision-making
 process in the context of terrorism. I relate the trade-offs policy-makers
 are faced with to the economic terrorism literature. Past years have shown
 a steady increase in theoretical and empirical contributions. However, the
 major part of the empirical advances is on the economic effects of
 terrorism, its origins, and drivers. More analysis is needed on public
 perceptions, responses to both the threat of terrorism and policy
 measures, as well as the costs of anti-terrorism measures. This would
 improve our understanding of the impact of terrorism on political and
 economic development. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 125-134 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Terrorism, Risk, Decision-making, Perceptions, Anti-terrorism measures, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542332 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542332 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:125-134




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hella Engerer 
Author-X-Name-First: Hella 
Author-X-Name-Last: Engerer 
Title: SECURITY AS A PUBLIC, PRIVATE OR CLUB GOOD: SOME FUNDAMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS 
Abstract:
  Security is often defined as the absence of threats. However, security
 has far more aspects, reaching from security of nation states to health
 security. Baldwin (1997) formulated seven questions to narrow the (broad)
 concept of security. Along with Baldwin's questions, this paper analyses
 'security' in the context of private, public, and club goods and their
 changing mixture. On the individual level, a shift from public provision
 to private protection can be observed, whereas the international challenge
 is to provide 'security' as a global public good with a fair and efficient
 financing for both rich and low-income countries. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 135-145 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Public goods, Private goods, Club goods, Property rights, Security, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542333 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542333 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:135-145




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Title: SECURITY ECONOMICS: A GUIDE FOR DATA AVAILABILITY AND NEEDS 
Abstract:
  The rapid and accelerating development of security economics has
 generated great demand for more and better data, to accommodate the
 empirical research agenda. The present paper serves as a guide to policy
 makers and researchers for security-related databases. The paper focuses
 on two main issues. First, it takes stock of the existing databases and
 highlights their main components. Second, it discusses data shortages and
 needs that are considered essential for enhancing our understanding of the
 complex phenomenon of terrorism, as well as designing and evaluating
 policy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 147-159 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Security economics, Datasets, Terrorism, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.542336 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2011.542336 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:2:p:147-159




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shu-Yi Liao 
Author-X-Name-First: Shu-Yi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Liao 
Author-Name: Yu-Ying Lin 
Author-X-Name-First: Yu-Ying 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin 
Author-Name: Wei-Chun Tseng 
Author-X-Name-First: Wei-Chun 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tseng 
Title: A RANDOM RATIONING MECHANISM WHICH REDUCES THE RISKS OF NO SON LEFT AT HOME 
Abstract:
  Lotteries can be used to meet shortages in military-manpower-demanding
 situations before and during a large-scale war. By developing a new
 lottery mechanism that is fair in that everyone has the same success rate,
 the approach adopted in this paper is able to outperform the traditional
 lottery by generating extra rents in such a way that brothers or similar
 close family members can choose to maximize the chance that at least one
 person stays home, thereby reducing social cost. We use 2010 data for
 three war hot zones - namely, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan - as
 examples. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 265-277 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Nonmarket rationing mechanisms, Military manpower, The Vietnam lotteries, Large-scale war, Rationing lottery, Interdependent preferences, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491686 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491686 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:265-277




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Inna Melnykovska 
Author-X-Name-First: Inna 
Author-X-Name-Last: Melnykovska 
Author-Name: Rainer Schweickert 
Author-X-Name-First: Rainer 
Author-X-Name-Last: Schweickert 
Title: NATO AS AN EXTERNAL DRIVER OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES 
Abstract:
  So far, economic analyses of NATO enlargement have been restricted to
 aspects of regional security while political analyses focused on indirect
 peace-building effects on democracy in the first place. Our panel
 regressions for 25 post-communist countries for the period from 1996 to
 2008 reveal that direct incentives provided by NATO pre-accession are
 important for broad-based institutional development. Results are even more
 robust than for variables measuring EU pre-accession or NATO membership
 effects. This supports the argument that NATO can act as a transformative
 power and should strengthen its political agenda. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 279-297 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: NATO, Transition economies, Institutional change, Governance, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.532941 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.532941 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:279-297




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Spagat 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Spagat 
Title: MAINSTREAMING AN OUTLIER: THE QUEST TO CORROBORATE THE SECOND LANCET SURVEY OF MORTALITY IN IRAQ 
Abstract:
  I survey much evidence on mortality in Iraq, including data from the
 first and second Lancet surveys. The second Lancet survey is inconsistent
 with all credible and relevant information on levels and trends in violent
 deaths and on the geographical distribution of violence. I discuss
 weaknesses in attempts made by The Bloomberg School of Public Health and
 authors of the second Lancet survey to claim corroboration for the second
 Lancet survey from other sources. These attempts notwithstanding, the
 second Lancet survey is a clear outlier within a wide body of evidence on
 mortality in Iraq. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 299-316 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Iraq mortality, Lancet, Johns Hopkins, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491678 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491678 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:299-316




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Leo Blanken 
Author-X-Name-First: Leo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Blanken 
Author-Name: Jason Lepore 
Author-X-Name-First: Jason 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lepore 
Title: SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY 
Abstract:
  We develop a model of military technology competition among states.
 States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals'
 level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to
 implement any level of technology within their current feasible
 technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads
 should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing
 them to trump rivals' efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral
 Jackie Fisher's roughly articulated concept of 'plunging'. We then use
 this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among
 European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally,
 we conclude by discussing the model's implications for current US military
 force structure planning. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-334 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: technology diffusion, quolitative arms races, conventional force structure planning, weapons development, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491675 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491675 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:317-334




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Manuel Acosta 
Author-X-Name-First: Manuel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Acosta 
Author-Name: Daniel Coronado 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coronado 
Author-Name: Rosario Marin 
Author-X-Name-First: Rosario 
Author-X-Name-Last: Marin 
Title: POTENTIAL DUAL-USE OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGY: DOES CITING PATENTS SHED LIGHT ON THIS PROCESS? 
Abstract:
  This paper explores the potential civil use from the knowledge embedded
 in military technology. Using forward patent citation as indicator and
 from a comprehensive sample of 582 military patents with both US and
 European protection, we analysed the citations received for a military
 patents in subsequent patents. The technological origin of the citing
 patents will determine the use of a military technology. The methodology
 involves a descriptive analysis and the estimation of a multilevel logit
 model to determine the factors explaining the civilian use of military
 technology. The results show a differential behaviour among countries and
 types of military technology. Characteristics of firms, such as the
 technological experience of the company or institution in using military
 technology, are critical for a civilian use of the military knowledge. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 335-349 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Keywords: Military technology, Patent citations, Dual-use, Technology flows, 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491681 
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242694.2010.491681 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:335-349




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Danny M. Davis 
Author-X-Name-First: Danny M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Davis 
Title: DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES 
Abstract:
  This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that
 successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and
 to provide insights for defense executive decision&#x2010;making. Already
 used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast
 outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual
 money, prediction markets allow traders to &#x2018;bet&#x2019; on some
 future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple
 and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense
 executive the collective market&#x2019;s beliefs about the likelihood of
 an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 351-366 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491680 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.491680 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:351-366




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tal Sadeh 
Author-X-Name-First: Tal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sadeh 
Title: HARD CURRENCIES FOR HARD TIMES. TERROR ATTACKS AND THE CHOICE OF MONETARY ANCHORS 
Abstract:
  As terror&#x2019;s victims increase, hard currency commitments gain
 effectiveness in reducing inflation, and central bank independence loses
 its effectiveness, because terror reduces transparency and the number of
 veto players in domestic politics. PCSE (Panel&#x2010;Corrected Standard
 Error) estimations of inflation are run on pooled cross&#x2010;section
 time&#x2010;series sample of 87 countries from 1975--2005. When the trend
 level rises to 100 victims annually a currency board reduces inflation by
 up to 7.5%, and an independent bank raises inflation by up to 8%. When
 victims exceptionally exceed the trend by 100, a currency board reduces
 inflation by 2.5%, and an independent bank raises it by 2%. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 367-392 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.500817 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.500817 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:367-392




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pinar Derin&#x2010;G&#xFC;re 
Author-X-Name-First: Pinar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Derin&#x2010;G&#xFC;re 
Title: SEPARATIST TERRORISM AND THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN SOUTH&#x2010;EASTERN TURKEY 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the economic roots of separatist terrorism in
 Turkey. The political conventional wisdom is that poverty in highly
 Kurdish&#x2010;populated, south&#x2010;eastern Turkey is one of the most
 important causes of separatist terrorism and Turkish--Kurdish conflict in
 Turkey. Therefore, many economic policies have been implemented to improve
 the economic conditions in the south&#x2010;eastern part of the country.
 Using the Global Terrorism Database and Vector Autoregression (VAR)
 methodology, I find that there is no causal relationship between economic
 conditions in south&#x2010;eastern Turkey and separatist terrorism.
 Therefore policy&#x2010;makers should be cautious in using economic
 measures to prevent separatist terrorism in Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 393-407 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.491727 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.491727 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:393-407




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juan Prieto&#x2010;Rodr�guez 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Prieto&#x2010;Rodr�guez 
Author-Name: Juan G. Rodr�guez 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rodr�guez 
Title: SOCIAL PREFERENCES FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND POLICE ENFORCEMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE 
Abstract:
  We study the determinants of social preferences for national defence and
 for police and law enforcement. For this task, we estimate a bivariate
 ordered probit model for a set of European countries (France, Finland,
 Norway, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) in 2006. Determinants of spending
 decisions for defence and police are found to be linked but are of
 significantly different magnitudes. Besides, measures against terrorist
 threats are positively linked to police and defence spending increases,
 while the subjective perception of fiscal pressure has no influence.
 Finally, no significant differences are found between Northern and
 Southern Europe. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 409-421 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 7 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.533907 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.533907 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:409-421




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Donna Driscoll 
Author-X-Name-First: Donna 
Author-X-Name-Last: Driscoll 
Author-Name: Dennis Halcoussis 
Author-X-Name-First: Dennis 
Author-X-Name-Last: Halcoussis 
Author-Name: Anton D. Lowenberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Anton D. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lowenberg 
Title: ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND CULTURE 
Abstract:
  We address empirically the question of why international economic
 sanctions are, or are not, chosen as instruments of foreign policy and the
 question of what determines their success. We hypothesize that cultural
 linkages between nations are an important factor in explaining both
 instrument choice and conflict outcomes. Countries that share significant
 cultural attributes are found to be less likely to apply economic
 sanctions against one another than countries lacking such cultural ties.
 However, it is precisely in the case of culturally similar sender and
 target nations that sanctions are most likely to succeed. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 423-448 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.500826 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.500826 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:423-448




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Albert J.F. Yang 
Author-X-Name-First: Albert J.F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang 
Author-Name: William N. Trumbull 
Author-X-Name-First: William N. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Trumbull 
Author-Name: Chin   Wei Yang 
Author-X-Name-First: Chin   Wei 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang 
Author-Name: Bwo&#x2010;Nung Huang 
Author-X-Name-First: Bwo&#x2010;Nung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang 
Title: ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE, THREAT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NONLINEAR APPROACH 
Abstract:
  The main objective of the paper is to decipher the military
 expenditure--economic growth relationship, taking the level of economic
 development (income) into consideration. Our findings suggest the
 following: (i) military expenditure has a significantly negative
 relationship to economic growth for the 23 countries with initial incomes
 (threshold variable) less than or equal to $475.93; (ii) when the threat
 level is heightened, economic growth (23 countries) is expected to
 decrease. However, military expenditure in the presence of sufficiently
 large threats increases growth; (iii) for the remaining 69 countries whose
 initial incomes (real GDP per capita in 1992 price) exceed $475.93, no
 significant relationship exists whether the threat variable is taken into
 consideration or not. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 449-457 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.497723 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.497723 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:449-457




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andreas S. Andreou 
Author-X-Name-First: Andreas S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreou 
Author-Name: George A. Zombanakis 
Author-X-Name-First: George A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zombanakis 
Title: FINANCIAL VERSUS HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE GREEK--TURKISH ARMS RACE 10 YEARS ON: A FORECASTING INVESTIGATION USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS 
Abstract:
  This paper looks into the Greek--Turkish arms race a decade after an
 earlier contribution to the issue that relied heavily on artificial neural
 networks. The time period between the two papers contributes to the
 reliability of the results derived, not just by increasing the number of
 observations, but also mainly by incorporating the progress made in the
 realm of artificial intelligence. The focus on the case of both countries
 unlike the paper mentioned above that dealt with just the Greek side
 provides ample room for comparative purposes regarding the determinants of
 defense expenditure on both sides. The results derived in terms of input
 significance estimation support the findings of the earlier research as
 indicated above, pointing to the leading role of the demographic
 preponderance of Turkey over Greece. The paper also points to the fact
 that 10 years later, Turkey continues to set the arms race rules against
 its rival by determining the defense expenditure of Greece, whereas the
 role of the latter in affecting the military spending of Turkey is
 non&#x2010;existent. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 459-469 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 11 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.539858 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.539858 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:4:p:459-469




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rafael Reuveny 
Author-X-Name-First: Rafael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Reuveny 
Author-Name: John   W. Maxwell 
Author-X-Name-First: John   W. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Maxwell 
Author-Name: Jefferson Davis 
Author-X-Name-First: Jefferson 
Author-X-Name-Last: Davis 
Title: Dynamic Winner-Take-All Conflict 
Abstract:
  We develop a model of repeated conflict that features probabilistic
 winner-take-all outcomes and compare its dynamics to the dynamics
 generated by a similar deterministic model in which combatants divide the
 conflict spoils. While these models generate the same behavior in a
 one-shot game, in a repeated setting the winner-take-all model generates
 richer dynamics than the dynamics generated by the deterministic model,
 which are new to the economics literature on conflict. As in real-world
 conflicts, the winner-take-all model generates changes in the relative
 dominance of combatants, full mobilization of fighting resources, and
 endogenous surrender. We evaluate the implications for the literature. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 471-492 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.566254 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.566254 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:471-492




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Gries 
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gries 
Author-Name: Tim Krieger 
Author-X-Name-First: Tim 
Author-X-Name-Last: Krieger 
Author-Name: Daniel Meierrieks 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Meierrieks 
Title: Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth 
Abstract:
  We use the Hsiao--Granger method to test for terrorism--growth causality
 for seven Western European countries. In bivariate settings, the impact of
 economic performance on domestic terrorism is very strong. In trivariate
 settings, the impact of performance on terrorism diminishes. In general,
 we find that economic performance leads terrorist violence in robust ways
 only for three out of seven countries. Terrorism is almost never found to
 causally influence growth in bivariate and trivariate specifications. Our
 findings indicate that the role of economic performance in determining
 terrorist violence appears to have been important for some countries,
 whereas all attacked economies have been successful in adjusting to the
 threat of terrorism. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 493-508 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.532943 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.532943 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:493-508




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andr�s Navarro-Galera 
Author-X-Name-First: Andr�s 
Author-X-Name-Last: Navarro-Galera 
Author-Name: Rodrigo   I. Ort&#xFA;zar-Maturana 
Author-X-Name-First: Rodrigo   I. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ort&#xFA;zar-Maturana 
Author-Name: Francisco Mu&#xF1;oz-Leiva 
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mu&#xF1;oz-Leiva 
Title: The Application of Life Cycle Costing in Evaluating Military Investments: An Empirical Study at an International Scale 
Abstract:
  Although life cycle costing (LCC) is internationally considered the best
 instrument for evaluating investments in military equipment, its practical
 application remains insufficiently studied. This paper presents an
 international panorama of systems used for evaluating military
 investments, identifying the procedures and instruments most commonly
 employed, and identifying their strengths and weaknesses. The LCC
 methodology is then systematically applied, revealing opportunities for
 improvements. The research methodology is based on a questionnaire sent to
 64 countries, inquiring into their standard practice regarding decision
 taking, cost estimation, risk management and performance indicators. The
 results obtained show that the main limitations facing these countries in
 employing LCC methodology concern weaknesses in their organizational
 structures and in their technical regulations, with particular respect to
 cost breakdown structures. Also significant are the scant number of cost
 estimation models available, the absence of up-to-date, reliable databases
 and the limited use made of appropriate techniques for risk and
 uncertainty estimation. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 509-543 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.508573 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.508573 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:509-543




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Albert Wijeweera 
Author-X-Name-First: Albert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijeweera 
Author-Name: Matthew   J. Webb 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Webb 
Title: Military Spending and Economic Growth in South Asia: A Panel Data Analysis 
Abstract:
  Despite the large number and variety of studies addressing the
 relationship between military spending and economic growth, a consensus
 regarding the exact nature of any relationship between the two has proven
 elusive. This study uses a panel co-integration approach to examine the
 relationship between military spending and economic growth in the five
 South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh
 over the period of 1988--2007. It finds that a 1% increase in military
 spending increases real GDP by only 0.04%, suggesting that the substantial
 amount of public expenditure that is currently directed towards military
 purposes in these countries has a negligible impact upon economic growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 545-554 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.533905 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.533905 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:5:p:545-554




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mete Feridun 
Author-X-Name-First: Mete 
Author-X-Name-Last: Feridun 
Author-Name: Bansi Sawhney 
Author-X-Name-First: Bansi 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sawhney 
Author-Name: Muhammad Shahbaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahbaz 
Title: The Impact of Military Spending on Economic Growth: The Case of North Cyprus 
Abstract:
  The present study aims at investigating the causal relationship between
 defence expenditures and economic growth in the case of North Cyprus using
 the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to
 cointegration and Granger causality tests for the period from 1977 to
 2007. The results suggest that the variables in question are in a long-run
 equilibrium relationship and that there exists a strong, positive
 unidirectional causality running from defence expenditures to economic
 growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 555-562 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 1 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.562370 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.562370 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juan   F. Vargas 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan   F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vargas 
Title: Rebellion, Repression and Welfare 
Abstract:
  I develop a dynamic model of social conflict whereby manifest grievances
 of the poor generate the incentive of taking over political power
 violently. Rebellion can be an equilibrium outcome depending on the level
 of preexisting inequality between the poor and the ruling elite, the
 relative military capabilities of the two groups and the destructiveness
 of conflict. Once a technology of repression is introduced, widespread
 fear reduces the parameter space for which rebellion is an equilibrium
 outcome. However, I show that repression-driven peace comes at a cost as
 it produces a welfare loss to society. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 563-579 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.594598 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.594598 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Arce 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce 
Author-Name: Christos Kollias 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias 
Title: Introduction to the Symposium: Ten Years after 9/11 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 581-582 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.641767 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.641767 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Max Abrahms 
Author-X-Name-First: Max 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abrahms 
Title: Does Terrorism Really Work? Evolution in the Conventional Wisdom since 9/11 
Abstract:
  The basic narrative of bargaining theory predicts that, all else equal,
 anarchy favors concessions to challengers who demonstrate the will and
 ability to escalate against defenders. For this reason, post-9/11
 political science research explained terrorism as rational strategic
 behavior for non-state challengers to induce government compliance given
 their constraints. Over the past decade, however, empirical research has
 consistently found that neither escalating to terrorism nor with terrorism
 helps non-state actors to achieve their demands. In fact, escalating to
 terrorism or with terrorism increases the odds that target countries will
 dig in their political heels, depriving the non-state challengers of their
 given preferences. These empirical findings across disciplines,
 methodologies, as well as salient global events raise important research
 questions, with implications for counterterrorism strategy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 583-594 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.635954 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.635954 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:6:p:583-594




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jo&#xE3;o   Ricardo Faria 
Author-X-Name-First: Jo&#xE3;o   Ricardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria 
Title: An Integro-Differential Approach To Terrorism Dynamics 
Abstract:
  This article introduces integro-differential equations as a new technique
 to study terrorism dynamics. An integro-differential equation is a
 mathematical expression that contains derivatives of the required function
 and its integral transforms. The technique is applied to two different
 dynamic models in terrorism: terrorism and tourism, and terrorist
 innovations. In the first model the number of tourists that appears in an
 integral term and also in a derivative term is impacted by the number of
 terrorists. In the second model the integro-differential equation for
 terrorist innovations relates them to terrorist attacks. The article shows
 how to solve, analyze, interpret, and deal with integro-differential
 equations. Integro-differential equations shed light on aspects of the
 models ignored when other techniques are used. This is particularly
 important for the evaluation of current counterterrorist policies, as well
 as to the formulation of new ones. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 595-605 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 9 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.627768 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.627768 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: S.   Brock Blomberg 
Author-X-Name-First: S.   Brock 
Author-X-Name-Last: Blomberg 
Author-Name: Ashvin Gandhi 
Author-X-Name-First: Ashvin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gandhi 
Author-Name: Gregory   D. Hess 
Author-X-Name-First: Gregory   D. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hess 
Title: The Political Economy of Legislation on Terrorism 
Abstract:
   -super-1This paper presents an empirical analysis of what drives
 congressional legislation on terrorism during the period 1995 to 2010. We
 utilize and augment current methodology to compile and analyze data on
 sponsorship and cosponsorship of terrorism related data. Our results on
 the sources of legislation on terrorism are largely in line with past
 examinations of the importance of committee membership and leadership,
 party majority-ship, and other political factors. Further, we find that
 the most significant and robust drive for legislation on terrorism is the
 September 11-super-th attacks. And while the impact of 9/11 affected
 legislative productivity everywhere, we find that it most significantly
 affected states surrounding New York and Washington D.C. Our results
 indicate that the economy may be one factor motivating politicians to
 legislate on terrorism; however, these results are not robust.<fn
 id="FN0001">  -super-1This research was funded in part by a grant from the
 Lowe Institute of Political Economy. The corresponding author is S. Brock
 Blomerg. We thank Chris Blomberg and Brianna Loyosa for their excellent
 research assistance on the project. </fn>  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 607-626 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.635953 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.635953 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher   J. Coyne 
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coyne 
Author-Name: Adam Pellillo 
Author-X-Name-First: Adam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pellillo 
Title: Economic reconstruction amidst conflict: Insights from Afghanistan and Iraq 
Abstract:
  Economic reconstruction typically takes place after the end of war. Yet
 recently, economic reconstruction has been viewed as a means to
 &#x2018;win hearts and minds&#x2019; during ongoing conflict. Drawing on a
 variety of reconstruction experiences from Afghanistan and Iraq, we
 identify four &#x2018;reconstruction traps&#x2019; that result from the
 incentives and constraints faced by actors involved in economic
 reconstruction during ongoing conflict. These traps include: 1. the
 credible commitment trap, 2. the knowledge trap, 3. the political economy
 trap, and 4. the bureaucracy trap. Avoiding these traps is critical for
 successful economic reconstruction; and we discuss potential strategies
 for doing so. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 627-643 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.535392 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.535392 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:6:p:627-643




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. Sokri 
Author-X-Name-First: A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sokri 
Title: Optimal replacement of military aircraft: an economic approach 
Abstract:
  A nonlinear optimization model is developed in this paper to identify the
 optimal replacement strategy for military aircraft. In the model, the
 aircraft operating and maintenance (O&M) costs per available year are
 estimated as a function of age during the aircraft life cycle. After
 determining the optimal replacement policy, the model is applied to the CF
 Long-Range Patrol CP-140A Arcturus fleet. A sensitivity analysis is also
 carried out to assess the impact of some key model parameters on the
 result. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 645-653 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 22 
Year: 2011 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.577958 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.577958 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Beeres 
Author-X-Name-First: Robert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Beeres 
Author-Name: Marion Bogers 
Author-X-Name-First: Marion 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bogers 
Title: Ranking the Performance of European Armed Forces 
Abstract:
  The degree of collectiveness aimed for in European defence policy raises
 issues such as burden sharing and relative performance measurement of the
 European Armed Forces (EAF). This paper compares EAF performance rates on
 three dimensions: input, throughput and output. In order to express
 performance, over the period of 1995--2008, differing measures are
 formulated for each of these dimensions. It appears that, in ranking the
 burden-sharing behaviour, it is the selection of a specific measure that
 defines the position of each European country. The implication of our
 study is that in meaningfully ranking the performance of EAF in the
 context of burden sharing, various indicators should be combined. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-16 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 3 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.578401 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.578401 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rupayan Gupta 
Author-X-Name-First: Rupayan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta 
Title: THE EFFECT OF OPPORTUNITY COST AND HAWKISHNESS ON PROTESTS IN OCCUPIED REGIONS 
Abstract:
  This paper examines how the opportunity costs of the leader of a national
 protest movement and the intrinsic hawkishness or pacifism of the occupier
 affect the nature of the movement against occupation. The characteristics
 of the population residing in the occupied region, the nature of
 punishment that is being meted out to the protestors, and the structure of
 enforcement costs that lead to these outcomes are discussed in the paper. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 17-49 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 9 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2010.540820 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2010.540820 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bradley M. Gray 
Author-X-Name-First: Bradley M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gray 
Author-Name: James E. Grefer 
Author-X-Name-First: James E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Grefer 
Title: CAREER EARNINGS AND RETENTION OF U.S. MILITARY PHYSICIANS 
Abstract:
  Military physicians consider potential career earnings when making their
 stay/leave decisions. Moreover, they consider the effects of differences
 between military and civilian compensation at three distinct decision
 periods in the military career: the first year of unobligated service, the
 years after that point but before military retirement eligibility, and the
 year of retirement eligibility. We find that military retention is highly
 sensitive to compensation differences at the first decision and
 substantially less sensitive after that. We also account for endogeneity
 of military physician pay and retention with an instrumental variable
 technique, without which, estimates substantially underestimate the wage
 effect. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 51-76 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.562371 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.562371 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Sandholt Jensen 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter Sandholt 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jensen 
Author-Name: Tony Vittrup S&#xF8;rensen 
Author-X-Name-First: Tony Vittrup 
Author-X-Name-Last: S&#xF8;rensen 
Title: LAND INEQUALITY AND CONFLICT IN LATIN AMERICA IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY 
Abstract:
  In this paper, we study the association between land inequality and civil
 conflict using a panel of 18 Latin American countries spanning the
 twentieth century. We find a statistically significant relationship
 between land inequality and civil conflict onset. This finding is
 consistent with the &#x2018;land maldistribution hypothesis&#x2019; and
 the view that inequality is important for understanding conflict in Latin
 America. It is also consistent with recent theories of conflict and the
 model of revolution applied by Acemoglu and Robinson in their work on
 political transitions. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 77-94 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 1 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.558726 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.558726 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:77-94




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Young&#x2010;Wan Goo 
Author-X-Name-First: Young&#x2010;Wan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Goo 
Author-Name: Seung&#x2010;Nyeon Kim 
Author-X-Name-First: Seung&#x2010;Nyeon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim 
Title: TIME-VARYING CHARACTERISTICS OF SOUTH KOREA-UNITED STATES AND JAPAN-UNITED STATES MILITARY ALLIANCES UNDER CHINESE THREAT: A PUBLIC GOOD APPROACH 
Abstract:
  This paper investigates the nature of two military alliances under
 Chinese threat. The findings are as follows: First, South Korea does not
 consider China a significant threat while Japan and the United States have
 recognized China as a serious threat since the 1990s and the 2000s,
 respectively. Second, the relationship between South Korea and the United
 States is a true military alliance for all time periods, but the nature of
 the alliance has changed since the 1970s. Third, although Japan began to
 form an alliance relationship with the United States in the 1990s, Japan
 is considered a more significant ally by the United States. This paper
 implies that, should China provoke a military confrontation, it might be
 difficult to deduce a common solution among the three countries because of
 the different response to military threats from China. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 95-106 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.553381 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.553381 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer 
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer 
Author-Name: Juan   F. Vargas 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan   F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vargas 
Title: Colombia: Introduction To A Special Issue Of Defence And Peace Economics 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 107-108 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597242 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597242 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:107-108




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mauricio   A. Rodr�guez 
Author-X-Name-First: Mauricio   A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rodr�guez 
Author-Name: Nancy   A. Daza 
Author-X-Name-First: Nancy   A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Daza 
Title: Determinants of Civil Conflict in Colombia: How Robust are they? 
Abstract:
  We analyze how the determinants of the civil conflict in Colombia at the
 municipal level respond to changes in the empirical strategy. We estimate
 several econometric models that vary in three dimensions: 1) the data set,
 2) the measure of conflict, and 3) the estimation method. We find
 substantial differences in the signs and statistical significance of the
 marginal effects in response to using a different data set, changing the
 definition of conflict, and employing different empirical methodologies. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 109-131 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597237 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597237 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:109-131




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paola Palacios 
Author-X-Name-First: Paola 
Author-X-Name-Last: Palacios 
Title: Forced Displacement: Legal Versus Illegal Crops 
Abstract:
  Anecdotal evidence suggests that, in stateless regions in Colombia, the
 establishment of oil palm-super-1 plantations generates more forced
 migration than the introduction of coca crops. We provide a theoretical
 model to study this phenomenon where an agent, allied with the illegal
 armed group that controls a region, chooses between buying an agricultural
 good from peasants or producing it himself by evicting farmers from their
 lands. We compare two crops that differ in their labor intensity. Results
 indicate that it is more likely that the agent finds it optimal to
 displace peasants in the case of the less labor intensive crop.<fn
 id="FN0001">  -super-1The oil palm is the tree from whose fruit one
 derives palm oil, the commercial crop. For convenience, we employ the
 terms interchangeably. </fn>  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 133-160 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597238 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597238 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:133-160




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Catherine rodr�guez 
Author-X-Name-First: Catherine 
Author-X-Name-Last: rodr�guez 
Author-Name: fabio s&#xE1;nchez 
Author-X-Name-First: fabio 
Author-X-Name-Last: s&#xE1;nchez 
Title: Armed Conflict Exposure, Human Capital Investments, And Child Labor: Evidence From Colombia 
Abstract:
  This article estimates the effect of armed conflict exposure on school
 drop-out and labor decisions of Colombian children between the ages of 6
 and 17. The empirical strategy is based on two-stage duration analysis and
 biprobit estimations that take into account the endogeneity of conflict.
 We find that conflict affects children older than 11, inducing them to
 drop out of school and enter the labor market too early. We find that
 short-term exposure to violence is the most relevant for these decisions
 and probable channels of transmission include higher mortality risks,
 negative economic shocks, and lesser school quality. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 161-184 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597239 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597239 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:161-184




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andr�s Casta&#xF1;eda 
Author-X-Name-First: Andr�s 
Author-X-Name-Last: Casta&#xF1;eda 
Author-Name: Juan   F. Vargas 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan   F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vargas 
Title: Sovereign risk and armed conflict: an event-study for colombia 
Abstract:
  We study the causal effect of recent landmark events of the Colombian
 armed conflict on the foreign perception of sovereign risk, as measured by
 the price of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) of Colombian bonds. We
 construct a Synthetic Control Group to use as the non-conflict
 counterfactual of the Colombian CDS price and compare its behavior around
 relevant conflict-event dates with that of the actual (conflict-affected)
 Colombian CDS. Results suggest that the impact of conflict on the foreign
 perception of sovereign risk is sizable but rather idiosyncratic, and
 depends on the political context surrounding each event. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 185-201 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597233 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597233 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:185-201




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juan   F. Vargas 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan   F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Vargas 
Title: The persistent Colombian conflict: subnational analysis of the duration of violence 
Abstract:
  Focusing on the Colombian armed conflict, this paper develops for the
 first time a within-country analysis of violence duration. It examines a
 wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the
 municipal level for the period 1988--2004, including geographic factors,
 economic and social variables, institutional characteristics,
 victimization variables and government intervention. It individuates the
 most robust correlates of the persistence of localized conflict, both
 across specifications and using different econometric models of duration
 analysis. Results suggest that violence in Colombia is more persistent in
 places where illegal rents are available. Better quality institutions and
 a more active military are in turn associated with shorter conflict
 episodes. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 203-223 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.597234 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.597234 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:203-223




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: G. Jones 
Author-X-Name-First: G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jones 
Author-Name: T. Kane 
Author-X-Name-First: T. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kane 
Title: U.S. Troops and Foreign Economic Growth 
Abstract:
  Do American troops help or hinder economic growth in other countries? We
 consider a newly constructed dataset of the deployment of U.S. troops over
 the years 1950--2000 and discover a positive relationship between deployed
 troops and host country economic growth, which is robust to multiple
 control variables. Each tenfold increase in U.S. troops is associated with
 a one--third percentage point increase in average host country annual
 growth. We explore three possible causal explanations: a Keynesian
 aggregate demand boost; the diffusion of institutions; and security.
 Extensive econometric testing, including the use of panel data, confirms
 the core relationship. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 225-249 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.585043 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.585043 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:225-249




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karen Pittel 
Author-X-Name-First: Karen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pittel 
Author-Name: Dirk   T.G. R&#xFC;bbelke 
Author-X-Name-First: Dirk   T.G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: R&#xFC;bbelke 
Title: Decision processes of a suicide bomber&#x2014;the economics and psychology of attacking and defecting 
Abstract:
  This paper provides a theoretical analysis of suicide attacks and
 defection. First, decision processes of potential attackers are examined
 from an economist&#x2019;s perspective. The results are then applied to
 insights from behavioural economics and psychology. We derive conditions
 under which agents decide to become suicide bombers&#x2014;or to announce
 an attack and defect later. Taking account of hyperbolic discounting we
 show why the decision to commit a suicide attack can be time-inconsistent
 and what internal manipulation mechanisms (arising from cognitive
 dissonance and terror management) and external manipulation mechanisms
 (employed by terrorist organizations and governments) might prevent or
 foster time-inconsistency. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 251-272 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.585817 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.585817 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:251-272




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vincenzo Bove 
Author-X-Name-First: Vincenzo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bove 
Author-Name: Elisa Cavatorta 
Author-X-Name-First: Elisa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cavatorta 
Title: FROM CONSCRIPTION TO VOLUNTEERS: BUDGET SHARES IN NATO DEFENCE SPENDING 
Abstract:
  A growing number of NATO countries suspended compulsory military service
 during the past decade or are now phasing it out, moving to an All
 Volunteer Force (AVF). An AVF can free resources available for investment
 in up&#x2010;to&#x2010;date equipments, thus improving operational
 capabilities. Our paper investigates shifts in NATO military expenditure
 shares on personnel, equipment, infrastructure and other costs over the
 period 1970--2008 and explores the impact of the transition to AVFs on
 these shares of the defence budget. Results suggest that while the end of
 conscription did not reduce the share of spending on personnel, NATO
 forces are increasingly less reliant on soldiers and more on capital. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 273-288 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.563973 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.563973 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:273-288




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adem   Y. Elveren 
Author-X-Name-First: Adem   Y. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elveren 
Title: Military Spending and Income Inequality:Evidence on Cointegration and Causality for Turkey,1963--2007 
Abstract:
  This paper examines the relationship between defence spending and income
 inequality in Turkey for the period of 1963--2007. Using the Theil Index
 of pay inequality as a proxy of overall income distribution, this study
 overcomes the problem of lack of time series data. Utilizing basic
 cointegration and causality tests, the paper aims to add to the literature
 by providing evidence that defence spending has an impact on income
 inequality for the case of Turkey. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 289-301 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.578414 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.578414 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:289-301




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Albert Wijeweera 
Author-X-Name-First: Albert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijeweera 
Author-Name: Matthew   J. Webb 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Webb 
Title: Using the Feder-Ram and Military Keynesian Models to Examine the Link Between Defence Spending and Economic Growth in Sri Lanka 
Abstract:
  This study uses the Feder-Ram model in conjunction with the military
 Keynesian model to examine the nexus between defence spending and economic
 growth in Sri Lanka. We find that the Keynesian aggregate demand model is
 better suited to analyse the link than the Feder-Ram model for the case of
 Sri Lanka. Based upon our results we expect a higher economic growth rate
 in Sri Lanka if more public resources are diverted from the defence to
 civilian sectors of the economy, now that the war between the government
 and separatist guerrillas has come to an end. However, recent post war
 events cast doubt upon whether a diversion of sources from military to
 non-military spending will actually occur. We conclude that the sanguine
 predictions of our economic analysis are entirely dependent upon the
 political decisions of the Sri Lankan government for their realization. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 303-311 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 5 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.593352 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.593352 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:303-311




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: &#x160;tefan Bojnec 
Author-X-Name-First: &#x160;tefan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bojnec 
Title: Defence Enterprise Surveys On Market Outlets: The Case Of Slovenia 
Abstract:
  This article presents the results of an empirical survey of Slovenian
 defence enterprises focusing on three segmented geographic market outlets:
 the domestic market, the other European Union (EU-26) markets and the
 global markets. In the enterprise surveys are included around two-thirds
 of the domestic defence enterprises of different sizes and activities. The
 Slovenian defence enterprises by production, supply-in-return,
 subcontracting, middleman and trader activities in the defence marketing
 chains are mostly specializing towards the businesses on the domestic
 market. Rare enterprises are specialized exclusively for activities on the
 EU-26 markets and the global markets. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 313-320 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.604945 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.604945 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:3:p:313-320




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David   S. Siroky 
Author-X-Name-First: David   S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Siroky 
Title: Each Man For Himself? Rival Theories of Alliance Economics in The Early State System 
Abstract:
  When military alliances are expensive, they naturally raise
 distributional issues. This article considers two theories to explain how
 much a state will voluntarily contribute to the economic burdens of
 defense. Empirical work has relied largely on data from the twentieth
 century. This article provides an out-of-sample test to evaluate the
 models. Using data on the Quintuple Alliance, the results are more
 consistent with the predictions of the joint products model than the pure
 public goods model. Due to credible commitment problems, and
 intra-alliance cleavages, I argue that we should not expect substantial
 free riding in most conventional military alliances. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 321-330 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 5 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.596654 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.596654 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:idefpeap:321-330




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: COMPANY SURVEY SERIES: I: BAE SYSTEMS PLC 
Abstract:
  BAE Systems is the UK&#x2019;s largest defence and security firm and one
 of the world&#x2019;s major arms companies. It has changed from a
 state-owned aerospace firm to a privatised specialist defence company
 involved in a range of air, land, sea and cyber systems with a major
 presence in the US defence market. This article describes and assesses the
 history of the company, its organization, conduct and performance. 
 <bold>Editor&#x2019;s Note</bold>: This is the first of a new series of
 company surveys which describe the evolution and performance of the
 world&#x2019;s major defence companies and other important defence
 companies which might be less well-known. Authors are invited to submit
 outline proposals (one page) for company surveys to the Editors. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 331-342 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 5 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.593353 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.593353 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:331-342




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric   S. Lin 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric   S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin 
Author-Name: Yi-Hua Wu 
Author-X-Name-First: Yi-Hua 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu 
Author-Name: Ta-Sheng Chou 
Author-X-Name-First: Ta-Sheng 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chou 
Title: Country Survey: Defense Policy and Military Spending in Taiwan, 1952--2009 
Abstract:
  In this article we survey military spending, the evolution of national
 defense policy, and the role that defense spending played in economic
 activities in Taiwan from 1952 to 2009. With the ongoing cross-Strait
 dialogue and closer commercial ties between Taiwan and China, the share of
 military spending in government expenditures (or GDP) has tended to
 gradually decline, which is in accordance with the change in defense
 policy from an offensive posture to a defensive-oriented attitude. In
 addition, we investigate the defense spending--inflation nexus in Taiwan.
 The multivariate structural change test identifies two break points and
 three regimes are categorized accordingly. The Granger causality test
 based on the VAR model reveals that the heavy defense burden in Taiwan
 during 1952--71 (the first regime) is essentially an important factor
 causing the higher price levels. However, when the tension across the
 Taiwan Strait is alleviated as well as the defense-oriented policy
 adopted, the military spending no longer plays a crucial role in
 determining inflation in the recent two regimes. Sensitivity analysis
 confirms that our results are robust to different model specifications. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 343-364 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 9 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.626974 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.626974 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:343-364




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Beeres 
Author-X-Name-First: Robert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Beeres 
Author-Name: Eric   Jan De Bakker 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric   Jan De 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakker 
Author-Name: Myriame Bollen 
Author-X-Name-First: Myriame 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bollen 
Author-Name: Eibert Westerink 
Author-X-Name-First: Eibert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Westerink 
Title: Country Survey: An Economic Analysis Of Military Expenditures In The Netherlands, 1990--2009 
Abstract:
  This article examines the pattern of expenditures for national security
 of the Netherlands from 1990 until 2009. In 1990, military spending
 amounted to 2.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 2009, almost two
 decades later, this ratio dropped by more than a full percent. During this
 period, the reduction of funds available for national security was in
 concurrence with the Dutch government&#x2019;s spending policies. The
 Netherlands Armed Forces (NAF) changed dramatically in terms of
 capabilities, size, equipment and personnel in this two-decade time span.
 Our investigative results indicate that in spite of this transition, no
 significant changes have been implemented since 1990 in how the Dutch
 defence budget is allocated for the Navy, Army and Air Force. Furthermore,
 the mix of expenditures for salaries, operations and maintenance, as well
 as those for capital investment, stayed roughly the same for the duration
 of the period studied. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 365-387 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 7 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.607283 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.607283 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:365-387




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jos� Jurado-S&#xE1;nchez 
Author-X-Name-First: Jos� 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jurado-S&#xE1;nchez 
Author-Name: Miguel Jerez-M�ndez 
Author-X-Name-First: Miguel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jerez-M�ndez 
Title: Warfare, Economic Performance And The Struggle For World Hegemony In The Early Modern Period: Guns Versus Butter In Eighteenth-Century Britain And Spain 
Abstract:
  Testing the existence of budgetary trade-offs in eighteenth-century
 Britain and Spain can contribute to resolve the debate on the economic
 impact of warfare and its relationships with the military potential of
 nations and the struggle for world supremacy during the early modern
 period. We have constructed several empirical models to search for
 trade-offs in order to show which country had the whip hand in achieving
 its military and economic objectives. Britain was ahead of Spain for
 several reasons. Britain was more efficient in deploying the available
 resources because it built an effective national bureaucracy. Furthermore,
 the institutional reforms made from the seventeenth century onwards
 increased the level of resources through enhancement of the British
 economy. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 389-412 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.626964 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.626964 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:4:p:389-412




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael McBride 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: McBride 
Author-Name: Gary Richardson 
Author-X-Name-First: Gary 
Author-X-Name-Last: Richardson 
Title: Stopping Suicide Attacks: Optimal Strategies and Unintended Consequences 
Abstract:
  Governments fighting terrorists have many tactical options, yet these
 options often yield unintended and counterproductive consequences. This
 paper models a terrorist organization, a religious group from which the
 terrorists recruit suicide bombers, and the society in which the
 terrotists are imbedded. The model illuminates how the choice of
 counterterrorist tactics influences the incidence of attacks, paying
 particular attention to the direct and indirect (unintended) consequences
 of the government's actions. The ultimate goal of this work is to identify
 the best way to stop terrorist attacks. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 413-429 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.627758 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.627758 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:413-429




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jo&#xE3;o   Ricardo Faria 
Author-X-Name-First: Jo&#xE3;o   Ricardo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria 
Author-Name: Daniel Arce 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce 
Title: Counterterrorism And Its Impact On Terror Support And Recruitment: Accounting For Backlash 
Abstract:
  This article presents a dynamic model in which counterterrorism policies
 have the potential to generate positive public support for terrorism via a
 backlash that may fuel terror recruitment. For an optimizing government
 aiming at maximizing security, this phenomenon produces a natural bound on
 proactive counterterror policy that is related to the dynamic path of
 conflict. Moreover, terror is a persistent phenomenon that requires
 patience on the part of the target government for optimal counterterror
 policies to be realized. Finally, the potential for backlash yields
 insights into the need for target governments to fight an information war
 to change public opinion regarding its own policies and the ultimate
 effect of terror attacks. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 431-445 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.604930 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.604930 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:431-445




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Meierrieks 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Meierrieks 
Author-Name: Thomas Gries 
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gries 
Title: Economic Performance And Terrorist Activity In Latin America 
Abstract:
  We investigate the link between economic performance and terrorism for 18
 Latin American countries from 1970 to 2007, taking into account the
 potentially complex nature of this link. Panel causality analysis findings
 indicate that during this period, terrorism had no causal effect on
 economic growth. By contrast, we find that growth reduced terrorism in the
 less developed but not in the higher developed Latin American economies.
 We argue that group-specific differences (linked to patterns of economic
 development) govern this causal heterogeneity. From a series of negative
 binomial regressions we gain additional support for our findings, while
 also identifying further determinants of terrorism. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 447-470 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.656945 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.656945 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:447-470




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raul Caruso 
Author-X-Name-First: Raul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso 
Author-Name: Addesa Francesco 
Author-X-Name-First: Addesa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Francesco 
Title: Country Survey: Military Expenditure And Its Impact On Productivity In Italy, 1988--2008 
Abstract:
  This paper analyses the military expenditures in Italy over the period
 1988--2008. The estimation of a conventional model of military expenditure
 shows that the choices of military expenditure by Italian governments are
 influenced by US and, to a lesser extent, the other NATO countries'
 defence spending. In particular, the negative association between the US
 and NATO average military expenditure on the Italian one suggests a
 free-rider behaviour of Italy. Eventually, we focus on the relationship
 between productivity and military expenditure. The results suggest that
 there is a negative association between productivity and military
 expenditures in the long run. Namely, if military expenditures were
 substituted by civilian expenditures, the Italian overall productivity
 would be expected to improve. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 471-484 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.608964 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.608964 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:471-484




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abdullahi   D. Ahmed 
Author-X-Name-First: Abdullahi   D. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed 
Title: Debt Burden, Military Spending And Growth In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis 
Abstract:
  This article empirically explores the relationship between military
 expenditure, external debts and economic performance in the economies of
 sub-Saharan Africa using a sample of 25 countries from 1988--2007. In
 investigating the defence--external debt nexus, we employ three advanced
 panel techniques of fully modified OLS (FMOLS), Dynamic OLS (DOLS) and
 dynamic fixed effect (DFE) to estimate our model. We observe that military
 expenditure has a positive and significant impact on external debt in
 African countries. Real GDP affects the total debt stock of African
 countries with a negative relationship. Our empirical results based on
 long-run elasticities show that a 1% rise in national output leads to a
 decline in external debt by 1.52%, on average. Policy-wise, the study
 suggests that African countries need to strengthen areas of fiscal
 responsibility and pursue models that encourage rational spending,
 particularly reductions in military expenditure. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 485-506 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.627163 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.627163 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:485-506




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dan Kovenock 
Author-X-Name-First: Dan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kovenock 
Author-Name: Brian Roberson 
Author-X-Name-First: Brian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roberson 
Title: STRATEGIC DEFENSE AND ATTACK FOR SERIES AND PARALLEL RELIABILITY SYSTEMS: COMMENT 
Abstract:
  The contest-theoretic literature on the attack and defense of networks of
 targets focuses primarily on pure-strategy Nash equilibria. Hausken's 2008
 European Journal of Operational Research article typifies this approach,
 and many of the models in this literature either build upon this model or
 utilize similar techniques. We show that Hausken's characterization of
 Nash equilibrium is invalid for much of the parameter space examined and
 provides necessary conditions for his solution to hold. The complete
 characterization of mixed-strategy equilibria remains an open problem,
 although there exist solutions in the literature for special prominent
 cases. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 507-515 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.660606 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.660606 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:507-515




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjell Hausken 
Author-X-Name-First: Kjell 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hausken 
Title: Strategic Defense and Attack for Series and Parallel Reliability Systems: Reply to Rejoinder 
Abstract:
  Kovenock and Roberson's (2012a, b) replication of Hausken&#x2019;s
 (2008a) equations and parameter restrictions do not enhance our insight
 into the defense and attack of reliability systems. This reply intends to
 fill the remaining understanding gaps. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 517-519 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.660608 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.660608 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:517-519




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dan Kovenock 
Author-X-Name-First: Dan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kovenock 
Author-Name: Brian Roberson 
Author-X-Name-First: Brian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Roberson 
Title: Strategic Defense And Attack For Series And Parallel Reliability Systems: Rejoinder 
Abstract:
  In our original comment, we showed that Hausken's characterization of
 Nash equilibrium is invalid for much of the parameter space examined and
 provided necessary conditions for his solution to hold. Most of the
 comments in his reply are either tangential or irrelevant. However,
 several of the claims made in the reply reveal continuing
 misunderstandings and gaps in his understanding. In this rejoinder, we
 briefly clarify the fundamental issues. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 521-524 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.660607 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.660607 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:521-524




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjell Hausken 
Author-X-Name-First: Kjell 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hausken 
Title: Strategic defense and attack for series and parallel reliability systems: reply 1 to comment 1 
Abstract:
  Kovenock and Roberson's [2011] comment provides initial work which has
 the potential, when suitably extended, to advance the research frontier.
 Kovenock and Roberson's paper consists of three sections. The first
 section is an interesting introduction. The second section, titled
 &#x2018;Model and Main Result,&#x2019; provides no contribution beyond
 Hausken [2008a]. It consists of Equations (1)--(10) which are equivalent
 to equations developed by Hausken, and Equation (11) which is equivalent
 to the utility requirements <italic>u</italic>&#x2009;&#x2A7E;&#x2009;0
 and <italic>U</italic>&#x2009;&#x2A7E;&#x2009;0 provided after Equation
 (17) in Hausken. The third section provides interesting ideas about
 mixed-strategy equilibria that can be extended in future research. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 525-531 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.660609 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.660609 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:5:p:525-531




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: DEFENCE SPENDING, ECONOMIC GROWTH, CORRUPTION AND INEQUALITY 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 533-535 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663574 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663574 
File-Format: text/html
File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. 
Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:533-535




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: John Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou 
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou 
Title: DEFENCE SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU15 
Abstract:
  Over the last 30&#x2009;years, there has been an impressive amount of
 empirical work on the defence--growth nexus, using different
 methodologies, models and econometric techniques and focusing on
 individual case studies, cross-country studies or panel data studies.
 Despite the number and the variety of studies, the evidence on the
 defence--growth relationship is still far from conclusive. Rather
 surprisingly, very limited work has been published in the relevant
 literature for the European Union despite the continuous discussions for a
 Common European Defence Policy that would require an assessment of the
 economic effects of defence in this region. To fill in the gap in the
 literature, this paper employs an augmented Solow--Swan model and
 estimates it both with panel and time series methods to provide empirical
 evidence on the economic effects of defence spending in the EU15 over the
 period 1961--2007. Overall, evidence derived from both panel and time
 series methods is consistent and suggests that military burden does not
 promote economic growth in this region. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 537-548 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663575 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663575 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John   Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: John   Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Title: Military Spending, Growth, Development And Conflict 
Abstract:
  This paper makes a contribution to the debate on the economic effects of
 military spending using a large cross-country panel data-set for
 1988--2006. As well as providing a relatively up to date analysis,
 sub-groups are created that allow the analysis to focus on groups of
 countries at different income levels and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), an area
 which has seen a large number of damaging conflicts. Estimating the
 empirical growth model gives results that show variation across the
 sub-groups, with the general picture of significant negative short-run
 effect and insignificant long-run effect of military burden on per capita
 GDP growth, not consistent across the different income groups. In
 addition, breaking down the SSA group into those involved in conflict and
 those that are not, provides some further intriguing findings that suggest
 the value of further work on the impact of conflict on growth. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 549-557 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663576 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663576 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:549-557




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sibel   Bali Eryigit 
Author-X-Name-First: Sibel   Bali 
Author-X-Name-Last: Eryigit 
Author-Name: Kadir   Yasin Eryigit 
Author-X-Name-First: Kadir   Yasin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Eryigit 
Author-Name: Ufuk Selen 
Author-X-Name-First: Ufuk 
Author-X-Name-Last: Selen 
Title: THE LONG-RUN LINKAGES BETWEEN EDUCATION, HEALTH AND DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY 
Abstract:
  In this study, we empirically investigate the long-run relationships
 between education--health expenditures, defence expenditures and economic
 growth in Turkey by using annual time-series data for the time period
 1950--2005. To estimate these relationships, we use the cointegration
 method, which allows for the existence of structural breaks. The results
 show that there are two cointegrating vectors in the system with
 statistically significant structural breaks. According to the identified
 long-run equations, education and health expenditures affect economic
 growth positively, while defence expenditures have negative effects. In
 addition, the results show that there is a budgetary trade-off between
 education--health and defence expenditures. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 559-574 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663577 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663577 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid   E. Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid   E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND INEQUALITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA: A PANEL ANALYSIS 
Abstract:
  Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries have been characterized
 by the preponderant role of their military forces in economic matters, as
 demonstrated by the high levels of military spending and the growing
 industrial complex. While extensive research examines the relationship
 between military expenditure and economic growth, little attention has
 been paid to the effect of military expenditure on economic inequality.
 Studying inequality in MENA countries provides an opportunity to assess
 factors that shape the countries&#x2019; level of economic well-being,
 which has greater public policy implications in terms of how society
 allocates its scarce resources among competing needs. This paper examines
 two important issues. In the first part of the paper, we examine the
 relationship between military spending and inequality in MENA countries
 using a panel regression for country-level observations over the period
 1987--2005. The empirical results indicate that military spending has a
 strong and negative effect on inequality. Contrary to the conventional
 wisdom, in MENA countries a systematic increase in military spending could
 reduce the level of inequality. In the second part of this paper, we
 examine the demand for military expenditure; we find that factors such as
 inequality level and per capita income negatively affect military
 expenditure. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 575-589 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663578 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663578 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:575-589




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio d&#x2019;Agostino 
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio 
Author-X-Name-Last: d&#x2019;Agostino 
Author-Name: John   Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: John   Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni 
Author-X-Name-First: Luca 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni 
Title: CORRUPTION, MILITARY SPENDING AND GROWTH 
Abstract:
  This paper considers the effect of corruption and military spending on
 economic growth, analysing both the direct impact of public spending and
 the effect of allocating resources between categories of public spending
 within the framework of an endogenous growth model. The model exhibits
 non-linearities as a result of the links between the components of public
 spending, corruption and economic growth. The main findings of the
 empirical analysis confirm the expectation that corruption and military
 burden lower the growth rate of gross domestic product per capita. They
 also suggest that when the effect of the complementarity between military
 spending and corruption is omitted, as in most studies, the impact of
 military burden on economic performance is underestimated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 591-604 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 23 
Year: 2012 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663579 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663579 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:591-604




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alois Stutzer 
Author-X-Name-First: Alois 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stutzer 
Author-Name: Michael Zehnder 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zehnder 
Title: Is camera surveillance an effective measure of counterterrorism? 
Abstract:
  Camera surveillance has recently gained prominence in policy proposals on
 combating terrorism. We evaluate the instrument based on a comparative
 perspective and previous evidence on crime. We expect camera surveillance
 to have a relatively smaller deterrent effect on terrorism than on other
 forms of crime. In particular, we emphasize that: (i) terrorists have more
 opportunities for substitution; (ii) targets under camera surveillance
 might become more and not less attractive if terrorists aspire media
 attention; (iii) real-time interventions are limited as behaviour is only
 understood as suspicious in the light of hindsight; and (iv)
 closed-circuit television might crowd out social surveillance. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-14 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.650481 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.650481 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: LUCA LAMBERTINI 
Author-X-Name-First: LUCA 
Author-X-Name-Last: LAMBERTINI 
Title: JOINING THE NUKE CLUB: A FORWARD INDUCTION APPROACH 
Abstract:
  I investigate a two-country non-cooperative game where the status quo
 ante is asymmetric as one country is endowed with nuclear weapons while
 the other is not and is evaluating the opportunity of building up a
 nuclear arsenal. After identifying the conditions on pay-offs such that
 the resulting reduced form is a coordination game with two symmetric
 equilibria, I resort to forward induction to show that the implicit
 signalling mechanism in it may lead countries to select the peaceful
 equilibrium in a symmetric environment where both are endowed with
 analogous arsenals. Then I discuss the possibility for the nuclear power
 to give in to the rival so as to make the latter indifferent between
 entering the nuke club or not. This, however, turns out not to be a
 suitable route in absence of a commitment device or credible enforcement. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 15-21 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.650480 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.650480 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yang-Ming Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Yang-Ming 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Zijun Luo 
Author-X-Name-First: Zijun 
Author-X-Name-Last: Luo 
Title: WAR OR SETTLEMENT: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CONFLCIT WITH ENDOGENOUS AND INCREASING DESTRUCTION 
Abstract:
  This paper presents an economic analysis of the optimal choice between
 war and settlement when armed conflicts involve weapon costs and
 endogenously increasing destruction to consumable resources. In contrast
 to some earlier findings in the conflict literature, we derive conditions
 under which war dominates settlement as the Nash equilibrium choice in a
 one-period game without incomplete information or misconceptions. These
 conditions are shown to depend not only on resources allocated to the
 production of military weapons, but also on the endogenous destructiveness
 of weapons used in warfare. We show that contending parties always
 allocate more resources to arms productions under settlement (in the
 shadow of conflict) than under war. When total destruction is less than
 the difference in arms productions between settlement and war, each
 party&#x2019;s expected payoff is relatively higher under war. As a
 result, war dominates settlement. But, when total destruction is greater
 than the difference in arms productions between settlement and war, each
 party&#x2019;s expected payoff is relatively higher under settlement. In
 this case, settlement dominates war and the larger scale of
 destructiveness associated with higher arms levels generates an effective
 deterrence for &#x2018;armed peace&#x2019;. One implication of the
 positive analysis is that, under the threat of conflict, arms reductions
 for promoting peace can never be voluntary. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 23-46 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.659862 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.659862 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hyung   Min Kim 
Author-X-Name-First: Hyung   Min 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim 
Author-Name: David   L. Rousseau 
Author-X-Name-First: David   L. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rousseau 
Title: THE RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY CONFLICT AND DEMOCRACY 
Abstract:
  Does democracy cause peace, or is democracy a consequence of peace? The
 burgeoning democratic peace literature has provided strong empirical
 evidence for the claim that democracies are a cause of peace. However,
 several skeptics of the democratic peace have suggested that the
 statistical findings are spurious. We test these competing claims using a
 simultaneous equation model. Using a unique data-set of all international
 disputes from 1960 to 1988, we find strong support for reciprocal
 causation. As the democratic peace theorists claim, democracy causes peace
 even after controlling for military conflict in the system and region.
 Conversely, peace in the region appears to encourage the development of
 democratic polities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 47-72 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663580 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663580 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:1:p:47-72




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: YU WANG 
Author-X-Name-First: YU 
Author-X-Name-Last: WANG 
Title: Determinants of southeast asian military spending in the post-cold war era: a dynamic panel analysis 
Abstract:
  This study examines the demand of military expenditure among Southeast
 Asian countries since the end of the Cold War. By using a dynamic panel
 approach, I find that military spending in the region has been jointly
 determined by economic, strategic and socio-political factors. In
 particular, surging foreign debt burdens and the rise of China -- two
 regional issues that gained prominence in the post-Cold War period -- show
 their significance as determinants along with other generalist variables.
 The results therefore ask for the development of even-handed and
 region-sensitive approaches to studying military build-up in the region of
 Southeast Asia. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 73-87 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.656944 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.656944 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raul Caruso 
Author-X-Name-First: Raul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso 
Author-Name: Andrea Locatelli 
Author-X-Name-First: Andrea 
Author-X-Name-Last: Locatelli 
Title: COMPANY SURVEY SERIES II: FINMECCANICA AMID INTERNATIONAL MARKET AND STATE CONTROL: A SURVEY OF ITALIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY 
Abstract:
  Finmeccanica is the eighth largest arms manufacturer on a world scale.
 The article explains and discusses its recent evolution. In particular, we
 discuss the broader privatisation programme implemented by the government
 as a response to the 1992 financial crisis. Finally, we will present our
 conclusions on how the interplay of domestic factors and external
 pressures accounts for Finmeccanica&#x2019;s peculiar trends. This result,
 especially Finmeccanica&#x2019;s performance, is the consequence of a deep
 transformation occurred in the past 10--15&#x2009;years in both the
 industrial base and national defence policy. The two processes appear to
 be somehow interrelated. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 89-104 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2011.635952 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2011.635952 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:1:p:89-104




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Shahbaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahbaz 
Author-Name: Talat Afza 
Author-X-Name-First: Talat 
Author-X-Name-Last: Afza 
Author-Name: Muhammad   Shahbaz Shabbir 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad   Shahbaz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shabbir 
Title: DOES DEFENCE SPENDING IMPEDE ECONOMIC GROWTH? COINTEGRATION AND CAUSALITY ANALYSIS FOR PAKISTAN 
Abstract:
  This study revisits the relationship between defence spending and
 economic growth via a Keynesian model in Pakistan using the autoregressive
 distributive lag bounds testing approach to cointegration. Empirical
 evidence suggests a stable cointegration relationship between defence
 spending and economic growth. An increase in defence spending reduces the
 pace of economic growth confirming the validity of Keynesian hypothesis in
 this case. Current economic growth is positively linked with economic
 growth of previous periods while a rise in non-military expenditures
 boosts economic growth. Interest rate is inversely associated with
 economic growth. Finally, unidirectional causality running from military
 spending to economic growth is found. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-120 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723159 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723159 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:105-120




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR: SUPPLY-SIDE PERSPECTIVE 
Abstract:
  This article introduces a supply-side perspective to the study of
 counterterrorism, where terrorists are viewed as combining terrorist
 attacks to achieve an aggregate output (e.g. social anxiety). With this
 novel approach, the elasticity of substitution, associated with the
 terrorists' production function, becomes a key determinant of the
 effectiveness of deterrence. If this elasticity is large, then
 countermeasures have very limited effectiveness when directed at a single
 mode of attack. If, in contrast, attack modes are complements, focused
 countermeasures can completely eliminate terrorists' gains.
 Counterterrorism measures are more effective when terrorist campaigns
 display little diversity of attacks. The article also identifies when
 proactive policies are more effective than defensive policies. The
 supply-side perspective gives a new pessimistic view to benevolence, which
 reduces the cost of nonterrorist activities. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 121-132 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.691228 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.691228 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:121-132




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: W. Robert   J. Alexander 
Author-X-Name-First: W. Robert   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Alexander 
Title: THE DEFENCE-DEBT NEXUS: EVIDENCE FROM THE HIGH-INCOME MEMBERS OF NATO 
Abstract:
  The literature in defence economics has tended to focus on the
 relationship between defence spending and economic growth. Studies
 examining the linkage between defence spending and government debt have
 been relatively rare. Given the recent Global Financial Crisis,
 originating in the developed economies, and the changed international
 security picture since 9/11, it is timely to reconsider the defence-debt
 nexus in the rich economies. This study pays particular attention to
 developing an empirical strategy which is both soundly based on economic
 theory concerning the evolution of public debt and which uses econometric
 methods that are welladapted to the dynamic aspects of the relationship.
 From the standpoint of economic theory, if a government seeks to minimize
 the distortionary costs of taxation, then taxation will follow a random
 walk. Unexpected shocks (war and recession) will cause debt. Other
 idiosyncratic national-level political considerations that affect the
 evolution of debt can be factored out by the use of a dynamic panel
 estimation method. Employing the Arellano--Bond dynamic panel model to the
 data available from members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation
 and Development and North Atlantic Treaty Organization over the periods
 1988--2009 and 1999--2009, this study finds that the defence burden is a
 statistically significant and economically important determinant of public
 debt. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 133-145 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.673839 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.673839 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:133-145




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonio Mart&#xED;nez Gonz&#xE1;lez 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mart&#xED;nez Gonz&#xE1;lez 
Author-Name: Nuria Rueda L&#xF3;pez 
Author-X-Name-First: Nuria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rueda L&#xF3;pez 
Title: A PRODUCTIVITY AND EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE SECURITY AND DEFENCE TECHNOLOGICAL AND INDUSTRIAL BASE IN SPAIN 
Abstract:
  This study analyses the performance of the productivity of the main
 industrial subsectors composing the security and defence technological and
 industrial base (SDTIB) in Spain from 1996 to 2009. Accordingly, we have
 used the non-parametric data envelopment analysis and bootstrapping
 techniques to compute Malmquist productivity indexes that allow us to
 split productivity growth into efficiency change and technical progress.
 The results obtained show productivity improvement in the SDTIB as a whole
 due mainly to advances in technology and to a lesser extent to the
 contribution of technical efficiency. The bootstrap approach yields
 further evidence, as for many cases, productivity growth or decline, is
 not statistically significant. This is the first time a study of this kind
 has been carried out on the production process of this sector in Spain. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 147-171 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.663581 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.663581 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:147-171




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: W. Robert   J. Alexander 
Author-X-Name-First: W. Robert   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Alexander 
Title: MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION 
Abstract:
  In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the
 connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a
 group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically
 significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This
 paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to
 deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It
 finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is
 associated with lower growth of GDP per capita. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 173-178 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.679832 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.679832 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:173-178




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Albert Wijeweera 
Author-X-Name-First: Albert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijeweera 
Author-Name: Matthew   J. Webb 
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew   J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Webb 
Title: MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: A REPLY 
Abstract:
  We review some critical comments upon our earlier paper in this journal
 and respond to these. We also critically evaluate a proposed alternative
 methodology giving reasons why our own provides a more robust approach for
 examining the nexus between military spending and economic growth in South
 Asia. 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 179-181 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.679833 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.679833 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:179-181




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Na Hou 
Author-X-Name-First: Na 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou 
Author-Name: Bo Chen 
Author-X-Name-First: Bo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen 
Title: MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EVIDENCE FROM SYSTEM GMM ESTIMATES 
Abstract:
	      The effect of military expenditure on economic growth in
 developing countries has been investigated by many empirical literatures.
 However, there is little consensus of that effect and the diversity seems
 to come from the use of different models and different estimators. This
 article applies the Augmented Solow Growth Model to examine the influence
 of military expenditure on economic growth for 35 developing countries
 over the period of 1975--2009. By using the system Generalized Method of
 Moments (GMM) estimators, empirical results indicate that defence has a
 negative and significant effect on economic growth in the sample
 countries.	     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 183-193 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.710813 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.710813 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:183-193




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J&#xFC;lide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: J&#xFC;lide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Nadir &#xD6;cal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: &#xD6;cal 
Title: ANALYSING THE DETERMINANTS OF TERRORISM IN TURKEY USING GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION 
Abstract:
	      This paper investigates the determinants of provincial
 terrorism in Turkey taking spatial dimension into account for the time
 period 1990--2006. Following a traditional global regression analysis,
 spatial variations in the relationships are examined with geographically
 weighted regression (GWR) to obtain locally different parameter estimates.
 Empirical results indicate that increases in income and schooling ratio
 tend to reduce the provincial average level of terrorism, whereas an
 increase in unemployment enhances it. Moreover, GWR results indicate that
 the provincial effects of per capita income and education are more
 pronounced for the Eastern and South Eastern provinces compared to the
 Western provinces.	     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 195-209 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.695034 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.695034 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:195-209




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Author-Name: Craig Stone 
Author-X-Name-First: Craig 
Author-X-Name-Last: Stone 
Title: ACCRUAL BUDGETING AND DEFENCE FUNDING: THEORY AND SIMULATIONS 
Abstract:
	      This paper explores the impact of moving to accrual budgeting
 on resources allocation in defence. Standard defence budgeting and
 investment models are used to assess the theoretical implications of
 accrual budgeting. In addition, a number of simulations are conducted to
 assess the long-term implications of moving to accrual accounting and
 budgeting. The result of the simulations shows that changes to deployed
 operations and other operational shocks will have manageable impacts on
 readiness but systematic shocks associated with defence unit prices,
 procurement policies and defence specific inflation will put considerable
 strain on the defence department's flexibility.	  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 211-227 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.691200 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.691200 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:211-227




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alberto Colino 
Author-X-Name-First: Alberto 
Author-X-Name-Last: Colino 
Title: CONFLICT RESOLUTION PROCESSES, UNCERTAINTY AND INVESTMENT DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FOR THE BASQUE COUNTRY 
Abstract:
	      In this article, the economic impact of diminishing levels of
 uncertainty on investment, as a result of conflict resolution processes,
 is tested by means of a case study on a European region largely affected
 by political violence. For this purpose, the response of Basque investment
 during conflict resolution attempts is used as a natural experiment with
 which to evaluate the effect of reduced uncertainty on productive
 investment. Thus, it is found that productive investment in the Basque
 Country increased considerably when credible peace talks directed towards
 the end of the conflict were undertaken. Accordingly, when compared with
 other subsets of comparable Spanish provinces, the truces declared in 1988
 and 1998 propelled the growth rate of investment in this region by 21.2
 and 25.8 percentage points, respectively. This finding gives an idea on
 the magnitude of the potential peace dividend to be reaped in the event of
 an eventual conflict resolution and a complete cessation of political
 violence in the region.	  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 229-245 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.673840 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.673840 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:229-245




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julien Malizard 
Author-X-Name-First: Julien 
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard 
Title: OPPORTUNITY COST OF DEFENSE: AN EVALUATION IN THE CASE OF FRANCE 
Abstract:
	      The aim of this article is to explore the defense--growth
 relationship in France. In particular, in the context of the crisis, we
 would like to compare the effects of military and nonmilitary spending on
 growth. Our results reveal that this is a complex relationship with a
 bidirectional causality. In the long run, defense expenditure exerts a
 positive influence and outperforms the impact of nondefense expenditure.
 However, an opportunity cost arises in the short run.		
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 247-259 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.692056 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.692056 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:247-259




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Soumyanetra Munshi 
Author-X-Name-First: Soumyanetra 
Author-X-Name-Last: Munshi 
Title: ANALYSIS OF CONFLICT WITHIN A CONTESTED LAND: THE CASE OF KASHMIR 
Abstract:
	      This paper considers the case of Kashmir to examine the
 relation between the people of the contested land (Indian-occupied
 Kashmir) and one of the nation states claiming it (India, in this case) in
 a game-theoretic framework. The motivation for this paper was whether it
 was possible to rationalize the lack of democratic space in Kashmir,
 relative to other states in India (especially since the founding fathers
 of the country had announced such democratic practices to be the guiding
 principles of the new nation) and at the same time, a highly rigid stance
 of the Indian Government on the Kashmir issue. An otherwise standard
 political economic model is used to capture how the way in which citizens
 determine their allegiance to one or the other nation state (India or
 Pakistan) can, in turn, affect the nation state's (India's) policies
 towards the contested land. I conclude that if the Indian Government
 perceives allegiance of the citizens to be determined primarily by
 partisan preferences of the citizens, not so much by their preferences for
 policies, then the government rationally concentrates on minimizing its
 disutility due to deviations from its &#x2018;most-favorite' policy. This
 understanding rationalizes the policies of the Indian Government towards
 Kashmir. More importantly, it points towards areas that need consideration
 for any peace-making process to take-off.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 261-292 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.692889 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.692889 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:3:p:261-292




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: CHRIS ROHLFS 
Author-X-Name-First: CHRIS 
Author-X-Name-Last: ROHLFS 
Author-Name: RYAN SULLIVAN 
Author-X-Name-First: RYAN 
Author-X-Name-Last: SULLIVAN 
Title: THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ARMORED TACTICAL WHEELED VEHICLES FOR OVERSEAS US ARMY OPERATIONS 
Abstract:
	      This study uses for official use only data on US military
 operations to evaluate the large-scale Army policies to replace relatively
 light Type 1 tactical wheeled vehicles (TWVs) with more heavily protected
 Type 2 variants and later to replace Type 2s with more heavily protected
 Type 3s. We find that Type 2 TWVs reduced fatalities at $1.1
 million--$24.6 million per life saved for infantry units, with our
 preferred cost estimates falling below the $7.5&thinsp;million
 cost-effectiveness threshold, and did not reduce fatalities for
 administrative and support units. We find that replacing Type 2 with Type
 3 TWVs did not appreciably reduce fatalities and was not cost-effective.   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 293-316 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723158 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723158 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:293-316




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MIKEL BUESA 
Author-X-Name-First: MIKEL 
Author-X-Name-Last: BUESA 
Author-Name: THOMAS BAUMERT 
Author-X-Name-First: THOMAS 
Author-X-Name-Last: BAUMERT 
Title: UNTANGLING ETA'S FINANCE: AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE BASQUE TERRORIST'S ECONOMIC NETWORK AND THE MONEY IT HANDLES 
Abstract:
	      This article aims to analyse the sources of terrorist
 financing of the Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA). It takes into account the
 network of entities that, under the leadership and oversight of ETA, have
 developed the political, economic, cultural, support and propaganda agenda
 of their terrorist project. This study focuses, in particular, on the
 periods 1993--2002 and 2003--2010, to observe the changes in the financing
 of terrorism after the outlawing of <italic>Batasuna</italic>, ETA's
 political wing. The results show the significant role of public subsidies
 in finance the terrorist network. It also proves that the outlawing of
 <italic>Batasuna</italic> caused a major change in that funding.	   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 317-338 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.710812 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.710812 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:317-338




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shabbar Jaffry 
Author-X-Name-First: Shabbar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffry 
Author-Name: Yaseen Ghulam 
Author-X-Name-First: Yaseen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghulam 
Author-Name: Alexandros Apostolakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Alexandros 
Author-X-Name-Last: Apostolakis 
Title: EXPLAINING EARLY EXIT RATES FROM THE ROYAL NAVY 
Abstract:
	      The Royal Navy (RN) is striving to achieve the right manpower
 mix through improved retention levels. This paper analyses the ratings'
 exit patterns from the RN using a hazard regression framework. We
 hypothesise that similar to civilian workers, job transition decisions of
 the RN ratings are dependent upon alternative job availability and
 macroeconomic conditions. In addition, working conditions, gender and
 skill mix, family commitments and promotion prospects in the Navy
 influence their decisions to leave early. We estimate the unemployment
 elasticity for males to be  - 0.65 (female  - 0.51), which is high,
 compared to the elasticity reported for the US Navy. The civilian wage is
 positively related to exit probability from the RN. Overall, married
 ratings are less likely to exit as compared to their unmarried
 counterparts, but married female ratings are 88% more likely to leave
 early as compared to unmarried females in the Navy. Promotion to higher
 ranks reduces the probability of early exists. 	 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 339-369 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.695035 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.695035 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:339-369




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aviral Kumar Tiwari 
Author-X-Name-First: Aviral Kumar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tiwari 
Author-Name: Muhammad Shahbaz 
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahbaz 
Title: DOES DEFENCE SPENDING STIMULATE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA? A REVISIT 
Abstract:
	      This study reinvestigates the effect of defence spending on
 economic growth using Zivot and Andrews and Lee and Strazicich, structural
 unit root tests and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing
 approach to cointegration in augmented version of Keynesian model for
 India. Study confirmed long run relationship among variables studied show
 that economic growth is positively affected by defence spending (also
 negative impact after a threshold point), investment and trade openness
 while negatively by interest rate. Granger causality analysis revealed
 bidirectional causal relationship between defence spending and economic
 growth as probed by variance decomposition approach.	       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 371-395 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.710814 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.710814 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:371-395




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Inmaculada Mart�nez-Zarzoso 
Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mart�nez-Zarzoso 
Author-Name: Sami Bensassi 
Author-X-Name-First: Sami 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bensassi 
Title: THE PRICE OF MODERN MARITIME PIRACY 
Abstract:
	      A growing body of literature has recently focused on the
 economic origins and consequences of modern maritime piracy and on the
 perception that the international community has failed to control it. This
 paper aims to investigate maritime transport costs as one of the channels
 through which modern maritime piracy could have a major impact on the
 global economy. A transport-cost equation is estimated using a newly
 released data-set on maritime transport costs from the Organization for
 Economic Cooperation and Development together with data on maritime piracy
 from the International Maritime Bureau. Our results show that maritime
 piracy significantly increases trade costs between Europe and Asia.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 397-418 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723156 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723156 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:397-418




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SUZANNA-MARIA PALEOLOGOU 
Author-X-Name-First: SUZANNA-MARIA 
Author-X-Name-Last: PALEOLOGOU 
Title: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN THE EU 
Abstract:
	      This paper examines the impact of military spending on
 general government debt in the enlarged European Union (EU) countries. For
 this purpose, we use panel data analysis and provide estimates from a
 dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) panel model. The dynamics are
 found to be important and the results suggest that military expenditures
 do have a large positive impact on the share of general government debt in
 the EU.	  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 419-428 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.717204 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.717204 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:419-428




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eyal Pecht 
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pecht 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Author-Name: Nir Weingold 
Author-X-Name-First: Nir 
Author-X-Name-Last: Weingold 
Title: ON THE CHOICE OF MULTI-TASK R&D DEFENSE PROJECTS: A CASE STUDY OF The ISRAELI MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM 
Abstract:
	      Investments in R&D constitute a major share of the
 expenditures of the hi-tech industry since, generally, they enable firms
 to successfully compete in the rapidly and constantly changing markets for
 hi-tech products and services. The role of R&D projects is particularly
 important in the areas of defense and homeland security due to the nature
 of warfare and the continuous threats posed by arms races and by terror
 organizations. This study analyzes the choice of the R&D projects designed
 to counter multiple related military threats. It develops the methodology
 required to assess whether it is preferable to develop one project to
 thwart several related threats, or several distinct projects, each of
 which provides an answer to one specific threat or a partial set of the
 threats. An analytic solution is provided and assessed for two simple
 models with two related threats. A solution of the model is then provided
 for any number of related threats, using a dynamic programming
 methodology. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our model and
 methodology to Israel's missile defense problem; that is, we show how to
 optimally develop systems aimed at thwarting the multiple threats of
 short-, medium-, and long-range missiles.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 429-448 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.717205 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.717205 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:429-448




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: PAUL HALLWOOD 
Author-X-Name-First: PAUL 
Author-X-Name-Last: HALLWOOD 
Title: QUANTIFYING GREED AND GRIEVANCE IN CIVIL WAR: THE AMERICAN WAR OF INDEPENDENCE 
Abstract:
	      'Greed' vs. 'grievance' is weighed using a generally
 applicable methodology as motivations in the American War of Independence.
 Greed is quantified as the expected economic benefit of Independence --
 escaping colonial trade burdens and expected increased economic growth
 rates. Grievance is measured as willingness to pay to escape perceived
 political burdens. Quantification of the relative contributions is made
 possible by using estimates of expected war-costs. To the extent that the
 economic burden was insufficient to explain the War, the residual is
 ascribed to the grievance motivation. Both motives are shown to have
 contributed to the War, but grievance dominates.	   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 449-463 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.744203 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.744203 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:449-463




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Franz J. Gayl 
Author-X-Name-First: Franz J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gayl 
Title: INCOMPLETE ROHLFS--SULLIVAN ANALYSIS OF THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ARMORED TACTICAL WHEELED VEHICLES FOR OVERSEAS US ARMY OPERATIONS 
Abstract:
	      This comment addresses the Rohlfs--Sullivan analysis titled:
 'The Cost-Effectiveness of Armored Tactical Wheeled Vehicles [TWVs] for
 Overseas US Army Operations.' The analysis evaluated policies to replace
 Type 1 and 2 TWVs with Type 3s. There is no evidence the analysis factored
 in fatality causes, fatality relationships to vehicles, or compared
 survivability of vehicles. Furthermore, it did not note when Type 3 TWVs
 were requested, when they impacted fatalities, or TWV use policies. It
 also assumed Type 3 TWVs prompted negative unit behaviors while
 discounting evidence of positive behaviors. In summary, the analysis is
 incomplete and should be revised.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 465-484 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.795334 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.795334 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:465-484




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chris Rohlfs 
Author-X-Name-First: Chris 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rohlfs 
Author-Name: Ryan Sullivan 
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sullivan 
Title: A comment on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of armored tactical wheeled vehicles 
Abstract:
	      This comment discusses the pros and cons of the methodology
 and data used in our previous study on the cost-effectiveness of armor on
 Tactical Wheeled Vehicles (TWVs), and responds to recent critiques by
 Franz Gayl. In our previous article, we evaluated the large-scale Army
 policies to replace relatively light Type 1 Tactical Wheeled Vehicles
 (TWVs) with moderately protected Type 2 variants, and later to replace
 Type 2s with heavily protected Type 3s. We find that the switch from Type
 2 to Type 3 TWVs did not appreciably reduce fatalities and were not
 cost-effective. Mr. Gayl contends that the data and choice of control
 variables used in our original study negatively bias our findings for Type
 3 TWVs. We defend our previous conclusions and argue that Gayl's suggested
 approach of focusing on <italic>deaths per insurgent attack</italic> fails
 to account for effects of the vehicles on when, where, and how attacks
 occurred. Our methodology does not suffer from this bias and measures
 effects on total unit casualties rather those incurred <italic>per
 attack</italic>. We explain that our estimates are stable across many
 specifications and are not sensitive to the choice of controls as Gayl
 suggests.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 485-494 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.816093 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.816093 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:5:p:485-494




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tilman Br�ck 
Author-X-Name-First: Tilman 
Author-X-Name-Last: Br�ck 
Author-Name: Olaf J. De Groot 
Author-X-Name-First: Olaf J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: De Groot 
Title: The Economic Impact of Violent Conflict 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 497-501 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723153 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723153 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:6:p:497-501




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid E. Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Title: Estimate of The Economic Cost of Armed Conflict: A Case Study From Darfur 
Abstract:
				 There has been much debate in many forums
 to seek a settlement of the Darfur conflict (DC), but no study has
 addressed its economic cost. This study is the first attempt to quantify
 the economic cost of the DC. The war's costs include the destruction of
 infrastructure, direct military spending attributable to the war effort,
 and the impact of the latter on capital formation. In addition, the human
 destruction -- loss of life and income -- must be taken into account. Our
 calculations show that the government of Sudan has incurred costs totaling
 US$30.5 billion, equivalent to 171% of 2003 Gross Domestic Product GDP, on
 the war in Darfur. This includes $10.1 billion in direct military
 expenses; $7.2 billion in the lost productivity of internally displaces
 persons; $2.6 billion in foregone lifetime earnings of the dead; $4.1
 billion in infrastructure damage; and $6.5 billion in war impacts on GDP.
 The total costs of the war are $41.5 billion if we added military
 spillover and African Union/UN hybrid operation in Darfur peace-keeping
 operations of $10.9 billion. While the country has spent only 1.3% of its
 budget on public health and less than 1% on education over the past two
 decades. The war consumes 13% of GDP in a society that lacks the means to
 provide the basic entitlements of education, food, health care, and
 shelter to its people. 		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 503-519 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723154 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723154 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:6:p:503-519




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adama Bah 
Author-X-Name-First: Adama 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bah 
Title: Civil Conflicts as a Constraint to Regional Economic Integration in Africa 
Abstract:
				 Regional economic integration is crucial
 for African countries, notably since they are characterized by small
 domestic markets. In this paper, we analyze how civil conflicts affect the
 economic fate of regional economic communities through its effect on the
 synchronicity of regional partners' economies. We find that conflict
 decreases business cycle synchronicity when it occurs within a regional
 economic community, both for the directly affected countries and for their
 more peaceful regional peers. We therefore find an additional reason to
 recommend putting prevention and resolution of civil conflicts on the top
 of the political agenda of African RECs.		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 521-534 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723155 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723155 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:6:p:521-534




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vincenzo Bove 
Author-X-Name-First: Vincenzo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bove 
Author-Name: Leandro Elia 
Author-X-Name-First: Leandro 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elia 
Title: Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis 
Abstract:
				 This paper addresses the relationship
 between the level of violence and the opium market in Afghanistan's
 provinces. We first provide an overview of the nature and extent of the
 Afghan drug trafficking. This is followed by a vector autoregressive
 analysis of the nexus opium-insurgency activities using monthly
 time-series data on opium prices and the number of security incidents for
 15 Afghan provinces over the period 2004--2009. We use a multifactor error
 structure, the common correlated effect, to include unobservable common
 factors; Impulse Response functions to describe the time path of the
 dependent variables in response to shocks; and the mean group estimator to
 summarize our results across the provinces. Results suggest a
 conflict-induced reduction in opium prices, while the reverse
 opium-violence mechanism is mostly negligible. Moreover, unobservable
 common factors are the main drivers of opium prices and violence.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 535-554 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723157 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723157 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:24:y:2013:i:6:p:535-554




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Benjamin E. Goldsmith 
Author-X-Name-First: Benjamin E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Goldsmith 
Title: International Trade and The Onset and Escalation of Interstate Conflict: More to Fight About, or More Reasons Not to Fight? 
Abstract:
				 Although study of the relationship between
 international trade and militarized conflict has become more
 sophisticated, whether trade reduces the chance of conflict, exacerbates
 it, or has no effect, remains contested. Integrating expectations from
 schools of thought often portrayed as incompatible, I consider two aspects
 of trade -- volume and interdependence -- and model conflict as a
 two-stage process involving onset and escalation. This perspective leads
 to robust statistical findings that trade is Janus-faced, both
 facilitating and inhibiting conflict at different stages, supporting the
 conclusion that a focus on international conflict as a communication
 process promises better theory in international relations.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 555-578 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 24 
Year: 2013 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763637 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763637 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: N�stor Duch-Brown 
Author-X-Name-First: N�stor 
Author-X-Name-Last: Duch-Brown 
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfr�a 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfr�a 
Title: The Spanish defence industry: an introduction to the special issue 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-6 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857462 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857462 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Claudia P�rez-Forni�s 
Author-X-Name-First: Claudia 
Author-X-Name-Last: P�rez-Forni�s 
Author-Name: Noelia C�mara 
Author-X-Name-First: Noelia 
Author-X-Name-Last: C�mara 
Author-Name: Maria Dolores Gadea 
Author-X-Name-First: Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dolores Gadea 
Title: Cyclical Properties of Spanish Defence Expenditure 
Abstract:
				 The propensity of cutting some government
 spending during the crisis time generates the incentive for some
 policy-makers and governments to modify certain expenses irrespective to
 output variations. The goal of this paper is to analyse the cyclical
 properties of defence expenditure in Spain (1978--2009) and to
 characterize the consequences of economic and political cycles on this
 public spending.			  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 7-22 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857459 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857459 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:1:p:7-22




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: N�stor Duch-Brown 
Author-X-Name-First: N�stor 
Author-X-Name-Last: Duch-Brown 
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfr�a 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfr�a 
Author-Name: Elisa Trujillo-Baute 
Author-X-Name-First: Elisa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Trujillo-Baute 
Title: Market Structure and Technical Efficiency of Spanish Defense Contractors 
Abstract:
				 This paper uses an output-oriented
 stochastic distance function to compute defense contractors' technical
 efficiency as a measure of performance. Then, nesting a market structure
 and conduct equation into the frontier, we identify firm and industry
 factors that affect the observed inefficiency levels. The empirical
 results confirm that there exist multi-directional causal correlations
 among market structure, conduct, and performance of defense contractors.
 In addition, the paper shows that there exists a great variability among
 the different sectors that compose the defense industrial base. Therefore,
 policies oriented to influence the industry must take into account the
 multi-directional causal relation among its components.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 23-38 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857461 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857461 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:1:p:23-38




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Javier Garc�a-Est�vez 
Author-X-Name-First: Javier 
Author-X-Name-Last: Garc�a-Est�vez 
Author-Name: Elisa Trujillo-Baute 
Author-X-Name-First: Elisa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Trujillo-Baute 
Title: Drivers of R&D investment in the defence industry: evidence from Spain 
Abstract:
				 This paper analyses the main drivers of
 R&D investment in the Spanish defence sector at the firm level. In
 particular, we analyse the factors influencing the decision to innovate or
 not, and those that affect the relative amount of resources devoted to the
 innovative process. Using data from the Ministry of Defence and the
 balance sheets from over 650 companies from 2003 to 2008, a Heckman
 selection model is applied to account for the firm's decision to perform
 R&D investment (or not). Our estimation results show that for firms
 holding operations within the Spanish defence industry, both the long-term
 strategic decision on R&D engagement and the short-term decision of R&D
 investment were driven by the intensity of their participation in
 contracting with the Ministry of Defence; hence, the demand pull
 hypothesis is confirmed.		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 39-49 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857464 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857464 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:1:p:39-49




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfr�a 
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfr�a 
Author-Name: N�stor Duch-Brown 
Author-X-Name-First: N�stor 
Author-X-Name-Last: Duch-Brown 
Title: Explaining Export Performance in the Spanish Defense Industry 
Abstract:
				 This paper presents empirical results on
 the export performance of Spanish defense contractors. The objective is
 threefold. First, we briefly describe the export profile of the Spanish
 defense industry at the firm level. Second, in light of some results on
 the determinants of firm-level export intensity, we empirically test some
 of these variables for the case of defense-related exports. We find that
 exporters tend to be capital intensive, diversified, and showing high R&D
 effort. In the analysis by sectors, learning by exporting is the most
 frequent result. Third, we assess the exporter productivity premium,
 regressing productivity on exporter status and firm size. Our results
 indicate that when controlling for firm heterogeneity, no such premium
 exists.		   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 51-67 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857460 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857460 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: F�lix Arteaga 
Author-X-Name-First: F�lix 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arteaga 
Title: A Proposal for restructuring the security and defense industrial sector in Spain 
Abstract:
				 This article describes the state of the
 Security and Defense Industrial Sector in Spain, its main characteristics
 and challenges at the turn of an industrial-military cycle. First, it
 briefly analyzes the potentialities of the sector and its contribution to
 the national economy. Second, a detailed analysis of the general
 tendencies of the markets and the new models of collaboration or
 innovation among stakeholders, as well as the best practices of third
 actors in adjusting their industrial bases to the changing trends, is
 carried out. Based on the findings from the previous sections, recommended
 action lines for government intervention and industry strategies to
 accomplish a broad restructuring are delineated.			  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 69-83 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857463 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857463 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:1:p:69-83




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ghislain Dutheil de la Roch�re 
Author-X-Name-First: Ghislain 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dutheil de la Roch�re 
Author-Name: Jean-Michel Josselin 
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Michel 
Author-X-Name-Last: Josselin 
Author-Name: Yvon Rocaboy 
Author-X-Name-First: Yvon 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rocaboy 
Title: SDI, NATO, and the Social Composition Function 
Abstract:
				 The strategic defense initiative (SDI)
 intends to renew the leadership of the USA on the western alliance. The
 initiative takes place in a period when a summation technology prevails
 for the aggregation of contributions of NATO allies. We investigate if SDI
 induces a shift in Hirshleifer's social composition function. Panel data
 tests over the period 1970-1990 do not confirm any break toward a
 best-shot aggregator. SDI does not alter the core of deterrence. It is
 indeed a public good at the US level but not at the NATO level, where, it
 is one of the joint products of the alliance. We also investigate the
 lessons to be drawn for the current debates on ballistic defense.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 85-95 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.774772 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.774772 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:85-95




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bernhard Rauch 
Author-X-Name-First: Bernhard 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rauch 
Author-Name: Max G�ttsche 
Author-X-Name-First: Max 
Author-X-Name-Last: G�ttsche 
Author-Name: Stephan Langenegger 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Langenegger 
Title: Detecting Problems in Military Expenditure Data Using Digital Analysis 
Abstract:
				 The UN asks governments to report key
 figures of their annual military budgets with the aim of creating trust
 among member states. This goal can only be achieved if the data reported
 is accurate. However, although there are many reasons for governments to
 falsify data, the UN does not check for manipulation. In this paper, we
 apply Benford's law to the military expenditure data of 27 states taken
 from the UN register. Our analysis of the first digits shows that the
 states with the greatest deviations from the expected Benford distribution
 and therefore the lowest data quality are the USA and the UK.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 97-111 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763438 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763438 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:97-111




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow 
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow 
Author-Name: Jay Simon 
Author-X-Name-First: Jay 
Author-X-Name-Last: Simon 
Title: Attitude, Aptitude, and Testing in the Efficient Mobilization of Military Manpower 
Abstract:
				 Militaries commonly require recruits to
 pass a test that measures aptitude for military service. In this paper, we
 show that such tests may also act as a device for screening out
 low-motivation recruits, even if it is assumed that motivation is not
 measured by such tests and is not correlated with aptitude.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 113-124 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.802100 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.802100 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:113-124




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeremy Arkes 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arkes 
Author-Name: Stephen Mehay 
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehay 
Title: The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Attrition of First-Term Enlistees 
Abstract:
				 This study examines the effects of
 home-state unemployment rates on attrition behavior of Navy enlistees for
 successive career windows during the first term of service: the first 6
 months, the second 6 months, the second year, and the third year of
 service. The results indicate that attrition is negatively associated with
 changes in the local unemployment rate during the first three career
 windows covering two years of service. However, after two years of
 service, the estimated effect of the unemployment rate becomes
 insignificant for most groups of sailors. This is likely because sailors
 with the poorest job matches are sorted out early in the first term of
 service.		      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 125-138 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.752244 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.752244 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:125-138




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ian Levely 
Author-X-Name-First: Ian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levely 
Title: Measuring Intermediate Outcomes of Liberia's Disarmament, Demobilization, Rehabilitation and Reintegration Program 
Abstract:
				 This paper re-analyzes data from a survey
 of ex-combatants in Liberia conducted in, to estimate the effect of
 Liberia's Demobilization, Disarmament, Rehabilitation and Reintegration
 program on participants' income and employment status. As program
 completion was not random, these estimates are biased. I use propensity
 score matching to obtain a more precise estimate. The results indicate a
 higher employment rate for those who complete the program, although there
 is consistently no effect on income. These results have implications for
 both evaluating the outcomes in Liberia and the integrated approach to
 ex-combatant reintegration that the program embodied.			    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 139-162 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.727065 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.727065 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:139-162




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jimmy Teng 
Author-X-Name-First: Jimmy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Teng 
Title: Political Military Competition and Size and Composition of Government 
Abstract:
				 This paper uses a formal model to analyze
 the effects of political military competition among states on the size and
 composition of state. Great economies of scale in warfare, even
 distribution of military capability among contestants and greater value of
 contested resources generate higher level of military capacity and growth
 of government. If there is decreasing return to scale in state revenue
 generating function and provision of public intermediate inputs, then
 there will be an increasing size of civilian public sector relative to
 that of military. The paper finally studies how waves of military
 revolutions affected international political military competition and the
 size and composition of government in history. 		       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 163-175 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.774770 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.774770 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:163-175




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tsangyao Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Tsangyao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Chien-Chiang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Chien-Chiang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Ken Hung 
Author-X-Name-First: Ken 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hung 
Author-Name: Kuo-Hao Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Kuo-Hao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Title: Does Military Spending Really Matter for Economic Growth in China and G7 Countries: The Roles of Dependency and Heterogeneity 
Abstract:
				 This study revisits the causal linkages
 between military spending and economic growth in China and G7 countries
 (i.e. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the USA) by
 focusing country-specific analysis for the period 1988-2010. The panel
 causality analysis, which accounts for both cross-country dependency and
 heterogeneity across countries, is employed in this study. Our results
 find evidence of the neutrality hypothesis for Italy, France, and Germany,
 the military spending-growth detriment hypothesis for both Canada and the
 UK, and one-way Granger causality running from economic growth to military
 spending for China. Furthermore, we find a feedback between military
 spending and economic growth in both Japan and the USA. Thus, our results
 do not support that one size fits all. 		      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 177-191 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763460 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763460 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:177-191




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Metehan Yilg�r 
Author-X-Name-First: Metehan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yilg�r 
Author-Name: Erdal Tanas Karag�l 
Author-X-Name-First: Erdal Tanas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karag�l 
Author-Name: &Ccedil;i&#x11f;dem Ates Saygili 
Author-X-Name-First: &Ccedil;i&#x11f;dem Ates 
Author-X-Name-Last: Saygili 
Title: Panel Causality Analysis Between Defence Expenditure and Economic Growth in Developed Countries 
Abstract:
				 There is much controversy in the
 literature over whether military expenditures have a positive, negative or
 no relation impact on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to
 determine the relationship between GDP and defence expenditure. The study
 analyses GDP and defence expenditures of the developed countries with
 cross-sectional ADF and SURADF unit root tests using annual data for the
 years 1980-2007. We conclude that in the long term, according to the
 Pedroni cointegration test, there exists a relationship between defence
 expenditure and economic growth. Furthermore, by utilizing the Granger
 causality test, we find that defence expenditure is a factor in economic
 growth. In other words, our study validates the hypothesis that defence
 spending by economically developed countries positively contributes to
 their economics.		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 193-203 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.724879 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.724879 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:193-203




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Filiz Yesilyurt 
Author-X-Name-First: Filiz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yesilyurt 
Author-Name: B�lent G�lo&#x11f;lu 
Author-X-Name-First: B�lent 
Author-X-Name-Last: G�lo&#x11f;lu 
Author-Name: Ensar Yesilyurt 
Author-X-Name-First: Ensar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yesilyurt 
Author-Name: &#x15e;ennur Sezgin 
Author-X-Name-First: &#x15e;ennur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sezgin 
Title: The Determinants of Arms Production 
Abstract:
				 This study analyzes the determinants of
 arms production in 15 countries using annual panel data from 1997 to 2002.
 The results suggest that real GDP per capita, military expenditures, arms
 exports, and arms imports are positively related to arms production.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 205-211 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.804670 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.804670 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:205-211




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Toshihiro Ihori 
Author-X-Name-First: Toshihiro 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ihori 
Author-Name: Martin McGuire 
Author-X-Name-First: Martin 
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuire 
Author-Name: Shintaro Nakagawa 
Author-X-Name-First: Shintaro 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nakagawa 
Title: International Security, Multiple Public Good Provisions, and The Exploitation Hypothesis 
Abstract:
				 Since the 1960s Olson-Zeckhauser's (1966)
 analysis, its 'exploitation of the great by the small' has provided
 economists' core model of alliance's provision of security/defense. But
 with the end of the Cold War, countries' allocative behavior has diverged
 markedly from OZ's predictions for defense as a homogeneous pure public
 good voluntarily provided. This paper suggests a replacement for OZ, with
 the essential difference that 'defense' rather than being aggregated into
 their single public good is disaggregated into more realistic categories
 of self-insurance and self-protection. Because allocative behavior in
 public good groups is essentially driven by income effects, we concentrate
 on these, which become complex and conflicted, giving much greater scope
 for goods-inferiority. The analysis is followed by numerical simulations,
 which conform to actual experienced allocations in NATO much better than
 the conventional 'exploitation' model. 		       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 213-229 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.752229 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.752229 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:213-229




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yasmine M. Abdelfattah 
Author-X-Name-First: Yasmine M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfattah 
Author-Name: Aamer S. Abu-Qarn 
Author-X-Name-First: Aamer S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abu-Qarn 
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Shadwa Zaher 
Author-X-Name-First: Shadwa 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zaher 
Title: The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt 
Abstract:
				 Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security
 of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure
 reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region,
 showing considerable variation over the last 40 years. These
 characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the
 determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an
 econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking
 into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and
 strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military
 burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden,
 suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and
 net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of
 Israel's military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its
 impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken
 into account. The military spending of Egypt's allies Jordan and Syria
 generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt's spending. These results
 are consistent over a range of econometric techniques. 		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 231-245 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763454 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763454 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:231-245




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan 
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza 
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan 
Title: Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran 
Abstract:
				 Over the last decade, the Iranian
 Government budget on military has been higher than the average of the
 world. The current increasing international sanctions aim to reduce the
 military capabilities and capacities of the Iranian Government. We analyze
 the response of the Iranian economy to shocks in its military budget from
 1959 to 2007, using impulse response functions and variance decomposition
 analysis. The Granger causality results show that there is unidirectional
 causality from the military spending growth rate to the economic growth
 rate. The response of income growth to increasing shocks in the military
 budget is positive and statistically significant.		       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 247-269 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.723160 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.723160 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:247-269




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward G. Keating 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Keating 
Author-Name: Irv Blickstein 
Author-X-Name-First: Irv 
Author-X-Name-Last: Blickstein 
Author-Name: Michael Boito 
Author-X-Name-First: Michael 
Author-X-Name-Last: Boito 
Author-Name: Jess Chandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Jess 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chandler 
Author-Name: Deborah Peetz 
Author-X-Name-First: Deborah 
Author-X-Name-Last: Peetz 
Title: Investigating the Desirability of Navy Aircraft Service Life Extension Programs 
Abstract:
				 Building on prior work on optimal
 replacement of aging aircraft, this paper presents three methodologies to
 evaluate prospective aviation Service Life Extension Programs (SLEPs) and
 applies these methodologies to US Navy F/A-18E/F data. While considerable
 uncertainty remains as to the values of key parameters (e.g. the cost of
 F/A-18E/F SLEPs), the preponderance of the evidence available at this
 juncture favors undertaking SLEPs on F/A-18E/Fs rather than replacing them
 with new Joint Strike Fighters.		       
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 271-280 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.821234 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.821234 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:271-280




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Masanori Kuroki 
Author-X-Name-First: Masanori 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kuroki 
Title: The Deployment of the Japan Self-Defense Forces in Iraq and Public Trust Among Different Ideological Groups 
Abstract:
				 This paper investigates how public trust
 in the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) changed after 2004 when it was
 sent to Iraq in support of the USA. Because Japan's Constitution clearly
 prohibits the use of military forces unless for self-defense purposes,
 public opinion was divided. I find that liberals' distrust in the JSDF
 grew after the deployment in Iraq relative to moderates. Somewhat
 surprisingly, the trust among conservatives also declined relative to
 moderates after the deployment in Iraq.		  
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 281-289 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.795357 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.795357 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:281-289




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Author-Name: Catherine Mueller 
Author-X-Name-First: Catherine 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mueller 
Title: On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe 
Abstract:
				 We investigate whether differences in
 terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European
 countries for the period 2003-2007. We find that the average propensity
 for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and
 individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of
 observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs
 are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues
 their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes
 it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks
 are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned,
 decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher.
 Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation
 of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level
 time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component.
 We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained
 by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 291-310 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763472 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763472 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:291-310




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pinar Derin-G�re 
Author-X-Name-First: Pinar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Derin-G�re 
Author-Name: Adem Yavuz Elveren 
Author-X-Name-First: Adem Yavuz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elveren 
Title: Does Income Inequality Derive the Separatist Terrorism in Turkey? 
Abstract:
				 Separatist terrorism has been a severe
 problem for Turkey since the mid-1980s. The conventional wisdom contends
 that economic deprivation in southeastern Turkey is the fundamental reason
 for the long-running battle against the Kurdish rebels. Considering that
 there is limited empirical literature on the roots of terrorism in Turkey,
 yielding conflicting results about the claim that the main cause of
 terrorism is deprived economic conditions, this study aims to answer
 whether there is a causal relationship between income inequality and
 separatist terrorism in Turkey. To this end, the Global Terrorism Data
 Base for the period of 1973-2006, two Theil indices of pay inequality as
 proxy for income inequality, and the vector autoregression and
 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) methods are utilized. The results
 support the early findings that income inequality, a particular focus in
 this paper and an essential indicator of economic deprivation, is not a
 main cause of escalation of separatist terrorism in Turkey.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-327 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763627 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763627 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:311-327




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Ensar Yesilyurt 
Author-X-Name-First: M. Ensar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yesilyurt 
Author-Name: Filiz Yesilyurt 
Author-X-Name-First: Filiz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yesilyurt 
Title: Introducing the Literaturematic.Com: Survey of Defence Economics 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 329-330 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.752243 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.752243 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:3:p:329-330




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raechelle Mascarenhas 
Author-X-Name-First: Raechelle 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mascarenhas 
Author-Name: Todd Sandler 
Author-X-Name-First: Todd 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler 
Title: Remittances and terrorism: A global analysis 
Abstract:
				 This paper is the first global
 investigation of the relationship between remittances and terrorism. To
 discern this relationship, we draw terrorism event data from the Global
 Terrorism Database and International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorism
 Events. When a host of standard terrorism controls is employed, lagged
 remittances as a share of gross domestic product have a positive and
 significant impact on both domestic and transnational terrorist attacks.
 For the venue country's viewpoint, lagged remittances have a greater
 marginal impact on domestic than on transnational terrorism. However, when
 we investigate remittances to the home country of the perpetrator, lagged
 remittances have the greatest marginal impact on transnational terrorism.
 Throughout our investigation, standard terrorism controls perform
 according to our priors and those of the literature, lending credence to
 the isolation of the impact of remittances. We also account for
 endogeneity concerns.			      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 331-347 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.824676 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.824676 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:331-347




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Author-Name: Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou 
Author-X-Name-First: Panagiotis Th. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Konstantinou 
Title: Terrorism, crime and public spending: Panel VAR evidence from europe 
Abstract:
				 Within a panel VAR framework and utilizing
 generalized impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition
 analysis, we explore the dynamic effects of terrorism and crime on public
 order and safety spending across European countries during the period
 1994-2006. Our findings show that a 'shock' in terrorism and/or in crime,
 significantly increases the subsequent trajectory of public order and
 safety spending. As a by-product, we find that public spending is
 ineffective in reducing observed crime or terrorism.			    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 349-361 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.804668 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.804668 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:349-361




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Scott Helfstein 
Author-X-Name-First: Scott 
Author-X-Name-Last: Helfstein 
Title: Social capital and terrorism 
Abstract:
				 Many studies of terrorism explain the use
 of violence against civilians with political or economic forces, often
 relegating social variables to the margins. Social factors, specifically
 societal-level social capital, play a far more important role in
 explaining patterns of terrorist activity than previously recognized.
 Social capital can exert pressures that act as both restraint and catalyst
 for terrorism, making explicit exposition of these differential effects
 critical. Analysis shows that higher stocks of social capital positively
 correlate with the number of terrorist groups, but the average attack
 activity of those groups increase as measures of social capital decline.
 The complex relationship makes it difficult to draw simple policy
 implications, but it does offer insight into the role that social dynamics
 play in terrorist activity.			
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 363-380 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763505 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763505 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:363-380




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Atsu Amegashie 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Atsu 
Author-X-Name-Last: Amegashie 
Title: Asymmetric information and third-party intervention in civil wars 
Abstract:
				 I study a two-period model of conflict
 with two combatants and a third party who is an ally of one of the
 combatants. The third party is fully informed about the type of her ally
 but not about the type of her ally's enemy. In a signaling game, I find
 that if the third party is unable to give a sufficiently high assistance
 to her ally, then there exists a unique separating equilibrium in which
 the third party's <italic>expected</italic> intervention causes her ally's
 enemy to exert more effort than in the absence of third-party
 intervention; this worsens the conflict.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 381-400 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.799935 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.799935 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:381-400




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: W.J. Hurley 
Author-X-Name-First: W.J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hurley 
Author-Name: Jack Brimberg 
Author-X-Name-First: Jack 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brimberg 
Author-Name: Brent Fisher 
Author-X-Name-First: Brent 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fisher 
Title: Use it or lose it: On the incentives to spend annual defence operating budgets 
Abstract:
				 In most western countries, there is a
 strong incentive for defence department budget-holders to expend all of
 the funds they are authorized to spend in a fiscal year. In this paper, we
 question whether this emphasis makes sense. We develop a model of a
 defence department's operating expenditure assuming a fixed level of
 funding for a year and uncertain costs. The results of the model suggest
 that the incentive for departmental managers to expend all authorized
 funds is inefficient. We explore the implications of the model for the
 Department of National Defence (DND) in Canada in light of the recent
 criticism of DND lapsed funding by the Auditor-General of Canada.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 401-413 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.780758 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.780758 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:401-413




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc R. DeVore 
Author-X-Name-First: Marc R. 
Author-X-Name-Last: DeVore 
Title: International armaments collaboration and the limits of reform 
Abstract:
				 Budgetary pressures have driven a steady
 expansion of armaments collaboration projects internationally. This has
 also been the case in Europe where it is estimated that currently
 one-fifth of European procurement budgets are spent on collaborative
 weapons systems and the European Defence Agency has the long-term
 objective of increasing this figure by over 50%. The purpose of this
 article is to assess whether collaborative armaments projects
 <italic>can</italic> offer the benefits frequently attributed to them. To
 this end, the study examines the five combat aircraft projects that
 European states have collaboratively undertaken since the 1950s.	    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 415-443 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.793530 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.793530 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:4:p:415-443




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abigail R. Hall 
Author-X-Name-First: Abigail R. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hall 
Author-Name: Christopher J. Coyne 
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Coyne 
Title: The political economy of drones 
Abstract:
				 This paper provides a political economy
 analysis of the evolution of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or 'drones'
 in the USA. Focus is placed on the interplay between the polity and
 private economic influences, and their impact on the trajectory of
 political, economic, and military outcomes. We identify the initial
 formation of the drone industry, trace how the initial relationships
 between the military and the private sector expanded over time, and
 discuss present relationships. Understanding the historical evolution of
 UAV technology, as well as the major players in the industry today, is
 important for ongoing policy debates regarding the use of drones both
 domestically and internationally.		      
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 445-460 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.833369 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.833369 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:445-460




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hadas Shabtay 
Author-X-Name-First: Hadas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Shabtay 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: Budget allocation under uncertainty and the costs of war and insecurity 
Abstract:
				 This study presents a framework and models
 for the analysis of government budget allocation into defense and civilian
 expenditures in situations of uncertainty about the incidence of war. The
 models display the intricate relationships between security levels,
 subjective probabilities of the occurrence of war, and potential war
 damages. We show that poor countries tend to perceive greater
 probabilities of war than their richer rivals, and that the psychological
 burden of insecurity is larger when the country's wealth is larger and
 when its preference for security is higher. We apply our models to the
 Israeli-Syrian arms race and show that the higher rate of growth of
 Israel's gross domestic product relative to that of Syria is expected to
 lead to an increase in Syria's perception of the likelihood of war and to
 a decrease in Israel's perception of such a likelihood. We also show that
 if Syria's regime becomes ideologically more extreme, the monetary cost of
 maintaining Israel's security at the level that it enjoyed prior to the
 change will be very high, whereas the monetary cost of maintaining
 Israel's welfare will be moderate.			   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 461-480 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.810025 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.810025 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:461-480




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christian Schubert 
Author-X-Name-First: Christian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Schubert 
Author-Name: Leonhard K. Lades 
Author-X-Name-First: Leonhard K. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lades 
Title: Fighting maritime piracy: three lessons from <italic>pompeius magnus</italic> 				 
Abstract:
				 Piracy in international waters is on the
 rise again, in particular off the coast of Somalia. While the dynamic game
 between pirates, ship-owners, insurance firms and the military seems to
 have reached some kind of equilibrium, piracy risks generating significant
 negative externalities to third parties (e.g. in terms of environmental
 hazards and terrorism), justifying attempts to contain it. We argue that
 these attempts may benefit from a look back - through the analytical lens
 of rational choice theory - to the most successful counterpiracy campaign
 ever undertaken, namely, the one led by the Roman general Gnaeus Pompeius
 Magnus (Pompey the Great) in 67 BC.			   
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 481-497 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.804669 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.804669 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:481-497




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mete Feridun 
Author-X-Name-First: Mete 
Author-X-Name-Last: Feridun 
Title: Foreign aid fungibility and military spending: The case of North Cyprus 
Abstract:
				 The present article examines if the
 foreign aid to North Cyprus is fungible and if it is in a long-run
 equilibrium relationship with military spending using the Autoregressive
 Distributed Lag bounds testing procedure from 1977 to 2007. The results
 suggest that neither tax revenues nor public expenditures are in a
 long-run equilibrium relationship with foreign aid. However, strong
 evidence emerges that defence expenditures are in a long-run equilibrium
 relationship with foreign aid, and that the latter seem to cause the
 former.		    
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 499-508 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763628 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763628 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:499-508




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sultan Mehmood 
Author-X-Name-First: Sultan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehmood 
Title: Terrorism and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Pakistan 
Abstract:
				 Pakistan with highest number of terrorism
 related deaths of any country over the past decade, the number exceeding
 the total terrorism related deaths for both the European and North
 American continents, provides an ideal laboratory to study impact of
 terrorism on the macroeconomy. Quasi-Structural VAR, Vector Error
 Correction Model, Impulse Response Functions and Granger-Causality tests
 on a sample that covers over 4500 terrorist incidents and consequent 10,
 200 deaths [from 1973 to 2010] are employed to study the relationship
 between terrorism and the macroeconomy. One of the major advantages of the
 current methodology is that it not only enables one to circumvent the
 heterogeneity biases inherent in cross-country studies but it also allows
 distinguishing between short and long-run effects. It is documented that
 cumulatively terrorism has cost Pakistan around 33.02% of its real
 national income i.e. terrorism costs Pakistan around 1% of real GDP per
 capita growth every year.		     
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 509-534 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.793529 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.793529 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:5:p:509-534




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Derek Braddon 
Author-X-Name-First: Derek 
Author-X-Name-Last: Braddon 
Title: Collaborative projects and the number of partner nations 
Abstract:
 Collaborative defence projects have been a distinctive feature of European
 defence industrial policy. This article focuses on whether the number of
 partner nations in international collaborative defence and aerospace
 programmes is a source of inefficiency. It appears that there is not a
 simple linear relationship. Two nation collaborations can be efficient,
 but conventional wisdom assumes that inefficiencies emerge with more than
 two partner nations. Inevitably, data problems made what appears to be a
 simple hypothesis difficult to test. The major result is that there is no
 evidence that efficiency as measured by development times is adversely
 affected by the number of partner nations. A limited sample regression and
 a comparison of Airbus vs. Boeing shows a similar conclusion.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 535-548 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886434 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.886434 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:6:p:535-548




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fulvio Castellacci 
Author-X-Name-First: Fulvio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Castellacci 
Author-Name: Arne Fevolden 
Author-X-Name-First: Arne 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fevolden 
Title: Capable Companies or Changing Markets? Explaining the Export Performance of Firms in the Defence Industry 
Abstract:
 The paper presents an analysis of the factors explaining the export
 performance of firms in the defence sector. We focus on the case of
 Norway, and make use of two complementary methodologies: the first is
 based on econometric firm-level data analysis for the whole population of
 defence companies, and the second is based on qualitative case study
 research on the three most important defence export products (weapon
 stations, ammunition and electronics). Our empirical results highlight the
 importance of four major success factors for exporting firms: (1) the
 participation in offset agreements; (2) the ability to focus on their set
 of core competencies; (3) their R&D activities and interactions with the
 public S&T system; and (4) demand opportunities and, relatedly,
 user-producer interactions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 549-575 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12  
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857451 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857451 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:25:y:2014:i:6:p:549-575




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andr�s Navarro-Galera 
Author-X-Name-First: Andr�s 
Author-X-Name-Last: Navarro-Galera 
Author-Name: Francisco Mu�oz-Leyva 
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mu�oz-Leyva 
Author-Name: Rodrigo Iv�n Ort&uacute;zar Maturana 
Author-X-Name-First: Rodrigo Iv�n Ort&uacute;zar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Maturana 
Author-Name: Juan Lara Rubio 
Author-X-Name-First: Juan Lara 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rubio 
Title: Factors influencing the modernization of military-investment economic appraisal systems 
Abstract:
 Budgetary restrictions resulting from the present international economic
 crisis have tightened the need to improve efficiency in defense spending,
 leading to the armed forces having to undertake their duties with fewer
 resources. Previous reports on the subject have looked into the
 determining factors and effects of military spending but very few studies
 have analyzed the determinants for the modernization of the methodology
 for assessing efficiency. Thus, using a multiple regression statistical
 model, we have analyzed the appraisal systems in place in 28 countries to
 identify factors that influence the development of economic assessment of
 military expenditure. Our findings have revealed three factors that may
 favor the improvement of appraisal systems with regard to military
 expenditure: the quality of governance, size of the armed forces, and
 unemployment levels.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 577-604 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.804671 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.804671 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohamed Douch 
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed 
Author-X-Name-Last: Douch 
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Middle Powers And The Demand For Military Expenditures 
Abstract:
 This paper identifies and classifies middle power nations through the use
 of broad political science definitions, the demand for military
 expenditures models and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The
 latter is used as a simple quantifiable measure of relative and potential
 military power. The paper also develops and utilizes a threat variable
 that is applicable to middle power nations. The panel data analysis shows
 that the middle power nations react to threat variables that proxy global
 instability utilize foreign aid as a complementary policy tool along with
 military expenditures, and face significant trade-offs between military
 and non-military government spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 605-618 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.861652 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.861652 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Goodness C. Aye 
Author-X-Name-First: Goodness C. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Aye 
Author-Name: Mehmet Balcilar 
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet 
Author-X-Name-Last: Balcilar 
Author-Name: John P. Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: John P. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta 
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta 
Author-Name: Rene� van Eyden 
Author-X-Name-First: Rene� 
Author-X-Name-Last: van Eyden 
Title: Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa 
Abstract:
 This paper contributes to the growing literature on the milex-growth
 nexus, by providing a case study of South Africa and considering the
 possibility of structural breaks by applying newly developed econometric
 methods. Using full sample bootstrap Granger non-causality tests, no
 Granger causal link is found between military expenditure and GDP for
 1951-2010, but parameter instability tests show the estimated VARs to be
 unstable. Using a bootstrap rolling window estimation procedure, however,
 finds evidence of bidirectional Granger causality in various subsamples.
 This implies standard Granger non-causality tests, which neither account
 for structural breaks nor time variation may be invalid.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 619-633 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886432 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.886432 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julien Malizard 
Author-X-Name-First: Julien 
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard 
Title: Defense Spending and Unemployment in France 
Abstract:
 France has received little attention in the literature of defense
 economics, despite some outstanding features of the country's situation.
 This study attempts to partially fill this gap with new empirical evidence
 which evaluates the influence of military expenditure on the unemployment
 rate between 1975 and 2008. Our estimation is based on the ARDL approach
 to cointegration. The results reveal that both defense and non-defense
 spending exert a negative influence on unemployment but that defense
 spending has a higher negative impact.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 635-642 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 25 
Year: 2014 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857450 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857450 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid E. Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Title: Defense Spending, Natural Resources, and Conflict 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-3 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848581 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848581 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid E. Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Author-Name: Omnia A. Abdellatif 
Author-X-Name-First: Omnia A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Abdellatif 
Title: Military Expenditures and Natural Resources: Evidence from Rentier States in the Middle East and North Africa 
Abstract:
 It has been argued that the discovery of a new natural resource greatly
 increases the risk of conflict. This research aims to study the effect of
 natural resources on military spending, using the data from rentier states
 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from 1987 to 2012. In
 considering the 'resource curse,' the types of natural resources matter.
 Our empirical results demonstrate that the 'resource curse' arising from
 the abundance of certain natural resources, particularly oil and forest
 resources, leads to increases in military spending. In contrast, the rent
 from coal and natural gas has a negative impact on military spending,
 while the rent from minerals has no impact on military spending,
 controlling for GDP growth and per capita income.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 5-13 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848574 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848574 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne 
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne 
Author-Name: Nan Tian 
Author-X-Name-First: Nan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tian 
Title: Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity 
Abstract:
 This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on economic growth
 on a large balanced panel, using an exogenous growth model and dynamic
 panel data methods for 106 countries over the period 1988-2010. A major
 focus of the paper is to consider the possibility group heterogeneity and
 non-linearity. Having estimated the model for all of the countries in the
 panel and finding that military burden has a negative effect on growth in
 the short and long run, the panel is broken down into various groupings
 based upon a range of potentially relevant factors, and the robustness of
 the results is evaluated. The factors considered are different levels of
 income, conflict experience, natural resources abundance, openness and
 aid. The estimates for the different groups are remarkably consistent with
 those for the whole panel, providing strong support for the argument that
 military spending has adverse effects on growth. There are, however, some
 intriguing results that suggest that for certain types of countries
 military spending has no significant effect on growth.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 15-31 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848575 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848575 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric S. Lin 
Author-X-Name-First: Eric S. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin 
Author-Name: Hamid E. Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid E. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali 
Author-Name: Yu-Lung Lu 
Author-X-Name-First: Yu-Lung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lu 
Title: Does Military Spending Crowd Out Social Welfare Expenditures? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries 
Abstract:
 This article examines the relationship between defense and social welfare
 expenditures using a panel of 29 OECD countries from 1988 to 2005. It is
 quite difficult to take into account the simultaneous channels empirically
 through which the eventual allocation of defense and welfare spending is
 determined for the guns-and-butter argument. Taking advantage of our
 collected panel data-set, the panel generalized method of moments method
 is adopted to control the country-specific heterogeneity and to mitigate
 the potential simultaneity problem. The main finding of this article
 suggests a positive trade-off between military spending and two types of
 social welfare expenditures (i.e. education and health spending). One of
 the reasons may be that the OECD countries are more supportive of the
 social welfare programs; therefore, when the military spending is
 increased (e.g. military personnel and conscripts), the government may
 raise the health and education spending as well.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 33-48 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848576 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848576 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: �nal T�ng�r 
Author-X-Name-First: �nal 
Author-X-Name-Last: T�ng�r 
Author-Name: Adem Y. Elveren 
Author-X-Name-First: Adem Y. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elveren 
Title: Military Expenditures, Income Inequality, Welfare and Political Regimes: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis 
Abstract:
 The goal of this paper is to investigate the relationship between type of
 welfare regimes and military expenditures. There is a sizeable empirical
 literature on the development of the welfare state and on the typology of
 the welfare regimes. There appear to be, however, no empirical studies
 that examine welfare regimes with special attention to military spending.
 This study aims at providing a comprehensive analysis on the topic by
 considering several different welfare regime typologies. To do so, we use
 dynamic panel data analysis for 37 countries for the period of 1988-2003
 by considering a wide range of control variables such as inequality
 measures, number of terrorist events, and size of the armed forces. We
 also replicate the same analyses for the political regimes. Our findings,
 in line with the literature, show that there is a positive relationship
 between income inequality and share of military expenditures in the
 central government budget, and that the number of terrorist events is a
 significant factor that affects both the level of military expenditure and
 inequality. Also, the paper reveals a significant negative relationship
 between social democratic welfare regimes and military expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 49-74 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848577 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848577 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sencer Ecer 
Author-X-Name-First: Sencer 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ecer 
Author-Name: Nicholas J. Veasey 
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Veasey 
Title: The Shifting Determinants of Defense Spending Preferences Between 1980 and 2008 
Abstract:
 This paper analyzes defense spending preferences using ordered logit
 regression analysis of American National Election Survey data from 1980
 through 2008. Our results indicate that as opposed to having the ideology
 of isolationism, political party identification towards the Republican
 Party or having economic stakes in defense spending always play a
 significant role in increased preference towards defense spending.
 Demographic groups such as Native Americans, Hispanics, and retired women,
 a demographic subgroup, display generally positive preferences towards
 defense spending. Somewhat surprisingly, another demographic subgroup,
 'security moms,' do not show a preference. Our analysis also displays
 lower (higher) preference in the early 1990s (2000s) for defense spending
 compared to the year 2008.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 75-88 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848578 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848578 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi 
Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Ahmed 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elbadawi 
Author-Name: Raimundo Soto 
Author-X-Name-First: Raimundo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Soto 
Title: Resource rents, institutions, and violent civil conflicts 
Abstract:
 Natural resources have been blamed for inducing slow growth and sparking
 civil conflicts and violence. This paper first develops a model to account
 for the hazard of armed civil conflicts as a manifestation of the natural
 resource curse, which is mediated by the quality of both economic and
 political institutions. We then use recently published data on
 institutional quality and natural resource rents to measure the potential
 impact of the resource curse on violent civil conflicts using a panel of
 data for over 100 countries in the period 1970-2010. Our model explicitly
 accounts for the role of good economic and political institutions in
 deterring the recourse to violence as well as the extent to which they
 might weaken the resource rents effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 89-113 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848579 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848579 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gilles Carbonnier 
Author-X-Name-First: Gilles 
Author-X-Name-Last: Carbonnier 
Author-Name: Natascha Wagner 
Author-X-Name-First: Natascha 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wagner 
Title: Resource Dependence and Armed Violence: Impact on Sustainability in Developing Countries 
Abstract:
 The dependence on oil, gas, and mineral exports arguably has a negative
 impact on economic growth in resource-rich, developing countries. This
 article looks at the impact of resource dependence on adjusted net savings
 (ANS) as an indicator of weak sustainability. Our results, based on a
 panel of 104 developing countries during the recent commodity price boom,
 confirm a negative relationship between resource extraction and
 sustainable development as measured by ANS. We further look at the
 specific role of armed conflict and armed violence as captured by the
 homicide rate. Armed conflict, which is positively associated with
 resource dependence, negatively affects ANS per capita according to both
 our OLS and instrumental variables (IV) estimates. Similarly, armed
 violence has a detrimental effect on sustainable development. Our IV
 estimate suggests that a one-point increase in the homicide rate decreases
 ANS per capita by $60. Since education expenditures are a critical ANS
 component, we further examine the impact of resource dependence and
 violence on human capital. Consistent with previous findings,
 resource-dependent countries underinvest in education but armed conflict
 and violence do not affect the instantaneous share of education
 expenditures, hinting at a detrimental effect working through physical and
 social capital rather than education.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 115-132 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.848580 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.848580 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cameron Napps 
Author-X-Name-First: Cameron 
Author-X-Name-Last: Napps 
Author-Name: Walter Enders 
Author-X-Name-First: Walter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Enders 
Title: A regional investigation of the interrelationships between domestic and transnational terrorism: a time series analysis 
Abstract:
 It is generally deemed that domestic and transnational terrorism respond
 to different types of events. This study updates Enders, Sandler, and
 Gaibulloev's previous analysis to include data through the fourth quarter
 of 2010 and provides analysis of terrorism at the regional level. Vector
 autoregressions are used to show that previous findings are accurate on
 the whole, but that there are important differences between regions.
 Notably, the Granger-causality for the world depends on whether Iraq and
 Afghanistan are included in the sample, and impulse response functions
 highlight the persistent effect a shock to transnational terrorism can
 have on domestic terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 133-151 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.893705 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.893705 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stijn van Weezel 
Author-X-Name-First: Stijn 
Author-X-Name-Last: van Weezel 
Title: Economic shocks & civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1981-2010 
Abstract:
 A number of studies have examined the link between rainfall and conflict
 but results so far have been inconclusive. This study examines the effect
 of rainfall on economic performance in different sectors and conflict
 onset. The empirical analysis finds no support for a strong relation
 between rainfall and conflict as most results are not robust to different
 model specifications. The results also do not provide conclusive evidence
 for a link between growth in specific economic sectors and civil conflict
 onset.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 153-177 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.887489 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.887489 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eyal Pecht 
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pecht 
Author-Name: Asher Tishler 
Author-X-Name-First: Asher 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler 
Title: The value of military intelligence 
Abstract:
 This study evaluates the role of military intelligence in an arms race
 between two countries. The intelligence apparatus of each country
 evaluates the rival's capabilities and intentions, and enhances its
 military capability by increasing the effectiveness of its own weapon
 systems and reducing the effectiveness of the rival's weapon systems.
 Intelligence superiority also yields an advantage in deterrence and
 preemption. This study shows the following. (a) Investment in intelligence
 is much less beneficial for small government budgets, low intelligence
 efficiency, and a low degree of conservatism on the part of the
 policy-maker. (b) The expenditure on intelligence increases when
 intelligence efficiency is low and rising, and decreases when intelligence
 efficiency is high and rising. (c) Being very conservative may be costly
 to the country. (d) High-quality human capital substantially improves the
 country's security and welfare, particularly when the rivals are engaged
 in a knowledge race in addition to the usual arms race. An application of
 the model to the Israeli-Syrian arms race demonstrates its validity and
 usefulness.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 179-211 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886435 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.886435 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: W. Robert J. Alexander 
Author-X-Name-First: W. Robert J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Alexander 
Title: The Keynesian IS-MR Model and Military Spending 
Abstract:
 The issue of guns or butter is one of the most fundamental economic
 questions, yet there is no consensus on a theoretical framework for
 examining it. Over the last decade, a version of a simple Keynesian
 macroeconomic model has been applied a number of times to examining the
 link between defence spending and economic growth in a range of countries.
 There are reasons for doubting the soundness of this model as a basis for
 empirical work.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 213-221 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4  
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.857449 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.857449 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:2:p:213-221




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shio Ando 
Author-X-Name-First: Shio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ando 
Title: Empirical analysis of the defense interdependence between Japan and the United States 
Abstract:
 The purpose of this paper is to analyze the defense interdependence
 between Japan and the United States (US) in the short and long run and to
 investigate whether Japan is a follower or a free rider of the "US" over
 the 1975-2009 period. Given that mutual aid between Japan and the US has
 been maintained, the empirical results suggest that Japanese defense has a
 stable relationship with US defense. Furthermore, the results reveal that
 Japan is not a free rider but rather a follower in the period under
 consideration.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 223-231 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.793531 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.793531 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mert Topcu 
Author-X-Name-First: Mert 
Author-X-Name-Last: Topcu 
Author-Name: Ilhan Aras 
Author-X-Name-First: Ilhan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Aras 
Title: Defense spending and economic growth: Extended empirical analysis for the European Union 
Abstract:
 Previous empirical studies on the defense spending-economic growth nexus
 such as Kollias <italic>et al</italic>. (2007), Mylonidis (2008), Dunne
 and Nikolaidou (2012) analyzed this relationship in the case of the EU15.
 This study extends the analysis with the inclusion of more EU members and
 investigates the long run causal ordering between the two variables.
 Findings reported herein are not uniformed across all EU members. It is
 also found that end of Cold War has significant negative impact on defense
 expenditures of former east-European countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 233-246 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.774771 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.774771 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thorvaldur Gylfason 
Author-X-Name-First: Thorvaldur 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gylfason 
Author-Name: Inmaculada Mart�nez-Zarzoso 
Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mart�nez-Zarzoso 
Author-Name: Per Magnus Wijkman 
Author-X-Name-First: Per Magnus 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wijkman 
Title: Can free trade help convert the 'Arab Spring' into permanent peace and democracy? 
Abstract:
 Using a panel gravity model of trade for the period 1995-2010, this paper
 estimates the potential for increased intra-regional trade among 10
 countries of the southern and eastern Mediterranean coast. It examines how
 closer integration through the EU's revised neighborhood policy can
 encourage democratisation and conflict resolution. The main results
 indicate that while the gains realized to date from regional integration
 have been small, significant potential gains from deep integration exist.
 The paper proposes that the EU starts by negotiating deep and
 comprehensive free trade agreements with Egypt, Israel and Jordan provided
 these countries also negotiate them with each other.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 247-270 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886433 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.886433 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sakiru Adebola Solarin 
Author-X-Name-First: Sakiru Adebola 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solarin 
Author-Name: Pritish Kumar Sahu 
Author-X-Name-First: Pritish Kumar 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sahu 
Title: The effect of military expenditure on stock market development: panel evidence from system GMM estimates 
Abstract:
 This paper examines the impact of military expenditure on stock market
 development in 36 countries over the period 1989-2010. Within a panel
 framework, the system GMM estimates is utilised to test the relationship
 with an array of control variables. We augment the traditional measure of
 military expenditure-military burden, with a newly constructed
 comprehensive index - Global Militarisation Index. Overall, the results
 show that military spending has a negative and significant effect on stock
 market performance in the selected countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 271-287 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.898384 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.898384 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:271-287




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Taoxiong Liu 
Author-X-Name-First: Taoxiong 
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu 
Author-Name: Bihua Zhou 
Author-X-Name-First: Bihua 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou 
Title: Defense Strategy Transition and Economic Growth Under External Predation 
Abstract:
 This paper develops a growth model for a country under a Hobbesian
 environment with international conflicts where national defense is the
 only way to prevent external predation. Different defense strategies
 result in different growth paths. The long-run growth path is determined
 by the equilibrium of a dynamic game with three players: the external
 predator, the government, and the family. The equilibrium growth path can
 have different phases: submissive equilibrium, tolerant equilibrium, and
 complete protection equilibrium. Sustainable growth will endogenously
 induce an adjustment of the defense strategies. As the economy keeps
 growing, complete protection will eventually be preferred. The optimal
 growth path prefers to compress the length of the transitional period
 between incomplete protection and complete protection. Some interesting
 features of the transitional dynamics are exhibited by a control model
 with discontinuity.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 289-309 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.763636 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.763636 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ourania Dimitraki 
Author-X-Name-First: Ourania 
Author-X-Name-Last: Dimitraki 
Author-Name: Faek Menla Ali 
Author-X-Name-First: Faek 
Author-X-Name-Last: Menla Ali 
Title: The Long-run Causal Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Revisited 
Abstract:
 This paper re-examines the long-run causal relationship between military
 expenditure and economic growth in China over the period 1952-2010. An
 empirical econometric analysis based on a Barro-style growth model is
 conducted. By employing the Bartlett corrected trace test, which provides
 better approximations of the finite sample distribution to determine the
 rank of cointegration, the results support the existence of a single
 long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Furthermore, it
 is confirmed that the cumulated shocks of military expenditure primarily
 originate from different components of shocks that relate to economic
 development rather than the other way round.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 311-326 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.810024 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.810024 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:311-326




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binbin Meng 
Author-X-Name-First: Binbin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Meng 
Author-Name: William Lucyshyn 
Author-X-Name-First: William 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lucyshyn 
Author-Name: Xiangqian Li 
Author-X-Name-First: Xiangqian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Li 
Title: Defense Expenditure and Income Inequality: Evidence on Co-integration and Causality for China 
Abstract:
 There are conflicting views as to the relationship between a nation's
 defense expenditure (DE) and its population's income inequality (INEQ).
 DE, always an important part of government budget, can easily crowd out
 transfer payments, necessary to improve INEQ; however, these payments may
 also create a demand that may raise the income levels of the lower income
 earners. Consequently, the relationship between DE and INEQ is an
 important question. This paper examines the relationship between DE and
 INEQ in China for the period of 1989-2012. Utilizing basic cointegration
 and causality tests, our objective is to add to the literature by
 providing evidence that China's DE, in fact, do have an impact on INEQ.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 327-339 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.810026 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.810026 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:327-339




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tsangyao Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Tsangyao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Chien-Chiang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Chien-Chiang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Hsiao-Ping Chu 
Author-X-Name-First: Hsiao-Ping 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chu 
Title: Revisiting the Defense-Growth nexus in European countries 
Abstract:
 This study revisits the long run and dynamic causal linkages between
 defense spending and economic growth in 15 selected European countries for
 the period 1988-2010 by utilizing recent developments in non-stationary
 panel data analysis. To this end, the series properties of per capita
 defense spending, per capita real capita stocks, and per capita real GDP
 are investigated by the panel unit root tests with and without breaks that
 support evidence on unit root. The panel cointegration tests with and
 without breaks are also subsequently employed to investigate whether there
 exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these three variables.
 Finally, our causality analysis from panel vector error-correction model
 suggests that there is a feedback relation between real capital stock and
 real GDP in both short and long run, a one-way Granger causality running
 from real GDP to defense spending in both short and long run, and defense
 spending only Granger causes real capital stock in the long run.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 341-356 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.832556 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.832556 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:341-356




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binbin Meng 
Author-X-Name-First: Binbin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Meng 
Title: Why nations fail: defense spending, fighting commitment and, inter-nations-prosperity-poverty-gap 
Abstract:
 Both the increasing defense spending and the widening divergence between
 rich and poor countries are of great concerns. This paper attempts to
 explain the two concepts in a unify theory framework. In the view of
 conflict economics, a nation's defense spending can be seen as the
 fighting commitment of distributive effort in the global economy while
 other is the productive effort. The development of global economy needs
 the productive efforts from almost every nation, and the distribution of
 the aggregate output is determined in large degree by the fighting
 commitment of each nation. The numerical simulation of the model gives a
 reasonable explanation of the patterns of the divergence/convergence of
 prosperity-poverty gap between nations, the fact which is evidenced by
 many empirical analyses. (1) Given the initial wealth ratio between
 nations fixed, there is a critical value of fighting decisiveness, when
 the actual value is larger than the critical value, it is more likely to
 result in Matthew effect; otherwise the gap would gradually be shortened.
 (2) Given the fighting decisiveness fixed, there is a critical value of
 initial wealth ratio, when the actual value is larger than the critical
 value, it is more likely to result in Matthew effect; otherwise, the gap
 would gradually be shortened. The study gives a new perspective to explain
 and handle the increasingly defense spending and the prosperity-poverty
 gap between nations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 357-382 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.925323 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.925323 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicos Christodoulakis 
Author-X-Name-First: Nicos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Christodoulakis 
Title: Country failure and social grievances in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949: An economic approach 
Abstract:
 The Civil War that took place in Greece between the Communist Party and
 the Centre-Right Government during 1946-1949 is examined from a political
 economy perspective. The cost of the conflict is measured as output
 forgone relative to what it would have prevailed had Greece followed a
 post-war recovery similar to that of other nations in Western Europe. A
 two-stage approach compares Nazi-occupied countries with neutral ones to
 assess the cost inflicted by Second World War, and then compares Greece
 with the former to estimate the impact of the civil conflict. A regional
 analysis finds that the political discontent was mainly shaped by pre-war
 socio-economic grievances, rather than being affected by contemporaneous
 deprivation or driven by class structure as hardliners of both sides
 preferred to present in pushing for an all-out confrontation. The failure
 to settle political rivalries and thus prevent the conflict is also
 discussed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 383-407 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1016297 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1016297 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:4:p:383-407




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jennifer Brauner 
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer 
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauner 
Title: Military spending and democracy 
Abstract:
 This paper examines empirically whether democracies allocate fewer
 resources to the military than dictatorships. It employs a panel of up to
 112 countries over the period 1960-2000 to estimate a standard demand for
 military spending model. While papers on the determinants of military
 spending generally include democracy as a control variable, with a few
 exceptions, it is not the focus of their enquiry. This paper addresses
 resulting problems in the existing literature concerning data quality and
 the appropriate measurement of key variables, as well as the question of
 causality between military spending and democracy. It finds that
 democracies spend less on the military as a percentage of GDP than
 autocracies do and that causality runs from regime type to military
 spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 409-423 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.960245 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.960245 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:4:p:409-423




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: William Hutchins Seitz 
Author-X-Name-First: William Hutchins 
Author-X-Name-Last: Seitz 
Title: Market reactions to regulations on minerals from the democratic republic of the Congo 
Abstract:
 Using an event study approach to analyze stock market data from the United
 States, I investigate how regulations on conflict minerals sourced in the
 Democratic Republic of the Congo were perceived by investors. I find that
 for a subset of mining companies, stock returns were abnormally high when
 regulations in the US became more likely. I also find that returns were
 higher for communications equipment manufacturing companies when strong
 regulations in the DRC were announced. I argue that these responses were
 due to the competitive environments faced by each of these company types.
 These findings relate to debates surrounding the effects of the conflict
 mineral regulations. While some critics argue that reporting requirements
 were tantamount to a ban on minerals from the DRC, I find that stock
 returns for a subset of companies were sensitive to legislation in the DRC
 after legislation became law in the US, suggesting that market
 participants did not expect a complete trade ban on regulated mining and
 trading activities.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 425-441 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.972088 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.972088 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:4:p:425-441




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chia-I Pan 
Author-X-Name-First: Chia-I 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pan 
Author-Name: Tsangyao Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Tsangyao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: Yemane Wolde-Rufael 
Author-X-Name-First: Yemane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde-Rufael 
Title: Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test 
Abstract:
 This study revisits the causal relationship between military spending and
 economic growth in 10 Middle East countries via a panel causality analysis
 that accounts for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across
 countries. Our results indicate unidirectional causality from military
 spending to growth for Turkey; one-way causality from economic growth to
 military spending for Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria; bidirectional
 causality for Israel; and no causality in either direction for Jordan,
 Oman, and Saudi Arabia. The empirical evidence does not provide consistent
 results regarding the causal relationship between defense expenditure and
 economic growth in these countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 443-456 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.891356 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.891356 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Suzanna-Maria Paleologou 
Author-X-Name-First: Suzanna-Maria 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paleologou 
Title: Modelling the demand for national security expenditure: a note 
Abstract:
 In the past, national security for the majority of countries was almost
 exclusively associated with an external military threat emanating from a
 rival state(s). This was reflected in the standard models for the demand
 for military expenditure. The emergence of new security challenges such as
 terrorism, transnational crime networks, failed and rogue states, has
 profoundly affected the international security environment and the concept
 of national security. This note develops a model for the demand for
 national security expenditure adopting a broader, more inclusive
 definition of national security and includes concomitant budgetary outlets
 to meet the new security challenges.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 457-464 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1025482 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1025482 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chris Rohlfs 
Author-X-Name-First: Chris 
Author-X-Name-Last: Rohlfs 
Author-Name: Ryan Sullivan 
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Sullivan 
Author-Name: Jeffrey Treistman 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey 
Author-X-Name-Last: Treistman 
Author-Name: Ying Deng 
Author-X-Name-First: Ying 
Author-X-Name-Last: Deng 
Title: Using Combat Losses of Medical Personnel to Estimate the Impact of Trauma Care in Battle: Evidence from World War II, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan 
Abstract:
 This study investigates the effect that US medical personnel deaths in
 combat have on other unit deaths and 'military success,' which we measure
 using commendation medals as a proxy. We use a difference-in-differences
 identification strategy, measuring the changes over time in these outcomes
 following the combat loss of a medic or doctor and comparing it to the
 changes following the combat loss of a soldier who is not a medic or
 doctor. We find that overall unit deaths decrease in the five or ten days
 following the deaths of medical personnel in Vietnam, Korea, and the
 Pacific theater in World War II (WWII). In contrast, the WWII European and
 North African results indicate that overall unit deaths rise following
 medical personnel deaths. We find no relationship between medical
 personnel deaths and other unit deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan. For Korea
 and the Pacific theater of WWII, our estimates suggest unit commendation
 medals decrease following the deaths of medical personnel. This pattern of
 evidence is consistent with a model in which units often halted aggressive
 tactical maneuvers and reduced pursuit of their military objectives until
 deceased medical personnel were replaced. The results for the other
 conflicts are mixed and show little connection between medical personnel
 deaths and commendation medals.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 465-490 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1005897 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1005897 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeremy Arkes 
Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arkes 
Author-Name: Jesse M. Cunha 
Author-X-Name-First: Jesse M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cunha 
Title: Workplace goals and output quality: evidence from time-constrained recruiting goals in the US navy 
Abstract:
 This paper examines how workplace goals affect the quality of worker
 output, using data from the recruiting command of the US Navy. Recruiting
 stations and recruiters are assigned monthly goals for the quantity of new
 recruits that may create an unintended incentive to sacrifice quality,
 especially towards the end of the month. Using data on the universe of
 Navy recruits from FY1998 to 2010, we find significant reductions in the
 quality of recruits towards the end of the contracting month, both in
 terms of pre-existing quality of recruits and in medium-term outcomes that
 reflect the quality of the job match.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 491-515 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.891352 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.891352 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:5:p:491-515




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Leo J. Blanken 
Author-X-Name-First: Leo J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Blanken 
Author-Name: Jason J. Lepore 
Author-X-Name-First: Jason J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lepore 
Title: Performance measurement in military operations: information versus incentives 
Abstract:
 We explore the impact of strategic assessment efforts on military
 organizations at war. To do so, we construct a model to explore the impact
 of a principal's choice among imperfect performance metrics for a military
 operation. In doing so, the principal must consider both the incentivizing
 and informational properties of the metric. We show the conditions under
 which uncertainty regarding the nature of the agent, as well as
 uncertainty regarding the operational environment, drives a metric choice
 that induces pathological behavior from the agent. More specifically, a
 poor metric choice can create an overly optimistic assessment and end up
 prolonging the conflict. We illustrate the model's insights in the cases
 of World War II and the Vietnam War.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 516-535 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.949548 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.949548 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:5:p:516-535




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. M. Quinn 
Author-X-Name-First: J. M. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Quinn 
Title: Territorial contestation and repressive violence in civil war 
Abstract:
 This study models the structural sources of variation in the use of
 selective (discriminate) repression within 89 civil wars fought between
 1981 and 2005. The severity of repressive violence is modeled as a
 function of the amount of territory being contested by the insurgents.
 This idea is operationalized using measures of the location, size, and
 density of insurgency violence. The analysis finds evidence that the
 repressive behavior of both governments and rebel groups is linked to
 conflict geography. Governments violate physical integrity rights more
 frequently and kill more civilians the greater the overall amount of
 territory under contestation. Rebels kill more civilians in highly
 dispersed insurgencies that lack a clear epicenter.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 536-554 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.925677 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.925677 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antti-Ville Suni 
Author-X-Name-First: Antti-Ville 
Author-X-Name-Last: Suni 
Title: When are nuclear weapons worth having? 
Abstract:
 This paper introduces a cost-benefit analysis for future nuclear weapon
 possession using natural numbers in a simple discrete time model. In
 essence, I focus on the expected values (probability multiplied by
 magnitude of detonations) of deliberate and accidental nuclear wars among
 unitary states. I take the United Kingdom's current Trident renewal
 program as my case study. I seek to establish the expected value of a
 nuclear attack on the UK in the absence of nuclear weapons necessary to
 make the possession of nuclear weapons worthwhile. I find the net-value of
 nuclear weapons to be negative even under generous parametric values in
 their favor. I also discuss how our cognitive biases may affect the
 interpretation of the results. The analysis and discussion are limited to
 the UK, but the implications are likely to apply to other small nuclear
 weapon states, as well.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 555-565 
Issue: 5 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 10 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.948701 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.948701 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mazhar Yasin Mughal 
Author-X-Name-First: Mazhar Yasin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Mughal 
Author-Name: Amar Iqbal Anwar 
Author-X-Name-First: Amar Iqbal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anwar 
Title: Do migrant remittances react to bouts of terrorism? 
Abstract:
 This paper examines the short-run behaviour of migrant remittances in the
 face of terrorism. Using monthly data for post 9/11 terrorist attacks in
 Pakistan, the study finds evidence of increase in the volume of
 remittances sent from abroad. This increase is evident in the aggregate,
 as well as for the three main source regions of North America, the Persian
 Gulf and Europe. The positive association holds for all the top five
 migrant-hosting countries of Pakistan. The findings point in favour of an
 altruistic behaviour of migrant remittances at the macroeconomic level.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 567-582 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.921359 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.921359 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ziv Naor 
Author-X-Name-First: Ziv 
Author-X-Name-Last: Naor 
Title: Why a small probability of terror generates a large macroeconomic impact 
Abstract:
 It has been shown that terror activities have had a substantial
 macroeconomic impact. This work presents a macroeconomic model showing
 quantitatively that an increase in the probability of terror-induced death
 such as that observed in Israel in 2001-2004 is consistent with the
 documented contraction of economic activity associated with the impact of
 terror. The model includes fear of terrorism, represented as a higher
 level of probability perception than the cumulative-prospect theory
 expects, and a local government that can supply the public with a security
 good. The effectiveness of the production of the security good plays an
 important role in determining the terror-induced loss of production to the
 economy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 583-599 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.921358 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.921358 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:6:p:583-599




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konstantinos Drakos 
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Drakos 
Author-Name: Christos Kallandranis 
Author-X-Name-First: Christos 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kallandranis 
Title: A Note on the Effect of Terrorism on Economic Sentiment 
Abstract:
 This study documents that unforeseen events like terrorist attacks can be
 linked to the formation of Economic Sentiment after controlling for
 sentiment's economic drivers. By utilizing dynamic panel techniques, the
 Economic Sentiment Indicator, as well as one of its constituents Consumer
 Sentiment, for a pan-European panel of 27 countries appear to be
 negatively influenced by terrorism activity. Moreover, these negative
 effects are significant only in the post-9/11 era.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 600-608 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1016295 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1016295 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:6:p:600-608




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ming Zhong 
Author-X-Name-First: Ming 
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhong 
Author-Name: Tsangyao Chang 
Author-X-Name-First: Tsangyao 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang 
Author-Name: D. P. Tang 
Author-X-Name-First: D. P. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Tang 
Author-Name: Yemane Wolde-Rufael 
Author-X-Name-First: Yemane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde-Rufael 
Title: The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: a bootstrap panel causality test 
Abstract:
 We revisit the causal relationship between military spending and
 unemployment in the G7 countries applying a bootstrap panel causality
 analysis that accounts for both cross-sectional dependence and for
 heterogeneity across countries. Using per capita real GDP as a controlled
 variable, we found a unidirectional causality running from military
 spending to unemployment for Canada, Japan, and the US, one-way causality
 running from unemployment to military spending for France and Germany, and
 bidirectional causality for Italy and the UK. The empirical evidence does
 not seem to provide consistent results regarding the causal relationship
 between military spending and unemployment in G7 countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 609-622 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.994835 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.994835 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:6:p:609-622




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sheng-Tung Chen 
Author-X-Name-First: Sheng-Tung 
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen 
Author-Name: Jyun-Wei Lai 
Author-X-Name-First: Jyun-Wei 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lai 
Author-Name: Arwin Pang 
Author-X-Name-First: Arwin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Pang 
Title: The effect of military service system change on the demand for military expenditure 
Abstract:
 There has been a distinct trend of military service system change from
 conscription to enlistment around the world. This study aims to
 investigate how this change affects the demand for military expenditure.
 Our model is based on neoclassical model. Empirically, a two-break unit
 root test is applied to test the endogeneity of structural changes along
 with the system change. Then, an autoregressive distributed lag model is
 used to examine the effects on military expenditure. The empirical results
 show that the demand for military expenditure partly coincides with the
 system change. The effect of GDP on military expenditure is larger in
 countries with conscription than in those with enlistment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 623-633 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.901643 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.901643 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Faheem Aslam 
Author-X-Name-First: Faheem 
Author-X-Name-Last: Aslam 
Author-Name: Hyoung-Goo Kang 
Author-X-Name-First: Hyoung-Goo 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kang 
Title: How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets 
Abstract:
 Terrorist attacks adversely affect the Pakistani stock market. However,
 such effect is short-lived: the market recovers from terrorist shocks in
 one day. The impact of attack depends on the locations and types of
 attack. The more severe the attack (i.e. more people killed), the more
 negative is the KSE-100 index return. Most interestingly, stock market
 contains information about future attacks. In sum, different tactics of
 terrorists have varied effects on financial markets, which in turn can
 predict terrorist attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 634-648 
Issue: 6 
Volume: 26 
Year: 2015 
Month: 12 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2013.832555 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2013.832555 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:26:y:2015:i:6:p:634-648




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bryan J. Arva 
Author-X-Name-First: Bryan J. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arva 
Author-Name: James A. Piazza 
Author-X-Name-First: James A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Piazza 
Title: Spatial Distribution of Minority Communities and Terrorism: Domestic Concentration versus Transnational Dispersion 
Abstract:
 Qualitative studies of terrorist movements frequently highlight the
 importance of diaspora communities as important factors in producing and
 sustaining terrorist activity in countries. The underlying theoretical
 argument is that bifurcation of tight-knit minority communities between
 countries nurtures separatist or irredentist sentiments among affected
 community members, thus prompting terrorist activity, while minority
 community members in other countries might mobilize financial and
 political resources to support terrorist activity among their compatriots.
 In this study, we empirically test whether transnational dispersion,
 versus domestic concentration, of minority communities in countries
 produces higher incidents of terrorism. Conducting a series of negative
 binomial estimations on a reshaped database of around 170 countries from
 1981 to 2006, derived from the Minorities at Risk database and the Global
 Terrorism Database, we determine that both transnational dispersion of kin
 minority communities and domestic concentration of minorities within
 countries increase terrorism and that transnational dispersion is a
 particularly robust predictor of terrorist attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 1-36 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1055091 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1055091 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Seung-Whan Choi 
Author-X-Name-First: Seung-Whan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Choi 
Author-Name: James A. Piazza 
Author-X-Name-First: James A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Piazza 
Title: Ethnic groups, political exclusion and domestic terrorism 
Abstract:
 This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political
 power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To
 empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression
 estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find
 that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from
 political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic
 terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore,
 ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive
 predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression
 or economic discrimination.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 37-63 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.987579 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.987579 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ali Fakih 
Author-X-Name-First: Ali 
Author-X-Name-Last: Fakih 
Author-Name: May Ibrahim 
Author-X-Name-First: May 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ibrahim 
Title: The impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market in neighboring countries: empirical evidence from Jordan 
Abstract:
 This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the
 Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian
 refugees into Jordan on the country&#x2019;s labor market since the onset
 of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly
 three&#xa0;million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring
 countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United
 Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the
 majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates,
 employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and
 economic activity at the level of governorates. The vector autoregressive
 methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected
 governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests
 and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between
 the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results
 are verified through a set of robustness checks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 64-86 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1055936 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1055936 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J&#xfc;lide Yildirim 
Author-X-Name-First: J&#xfc;lide 
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim 
Author-Name: Nadir &#xd6;cal 
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir 
Author-X-Name-Last: &#xd6;cal 
Title: Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers 
Abstract:
 The relationship between economic growth and military expenditure has been
 the subject of a large literature in defence economics. This study
 analyses the influence of military expenditures on economic growth in a
 global perspective for the time period 2000--2010 taking spatial dimension
 into account. The augmented Solow model is employed to investigate the
 defence-growth nexus using the cross-sectional data relating to 128
 countries. Following a traditional regression analysis, spatial variations
 in the relationships are examined utilizing different spatial econometric
 specifications estimated by maximum likelihood. The regressions are
 compared with each other via likelihood ratio tests, and the spatial
 Durbin model is found to be the most appropriate one suggesting that the
 typical least-squares model is misspecified. Empirical evidence indicates
 that military expenditure has a positive effect on economic growth with a
 significant spatial dependence for the time period under consideration.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 87-104 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.960246 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.960246 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shin-Chyang Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Shin-Chyang 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Cheng-Te Lee 
Author-X-Name-First: Cheng-Te 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee 
Author-Name: Shang-Fen Wu 
Author-X-Name-First: Shang-Fen 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu 
Title: Military spending and growth: a small open economy stochastic growth model 
Abstract:
 The paper analyzes the effects of military spending on economic growth in
 a small open stochastic endogenous growth model involving the supply-side
 and demand-side effects produced by military spending. We show that a rise
 in the military spending affects economic growth through four channels,
 including the crowding-out effect, the spin-off effect, the resource
 mobilization effect, and the portfolio effect. The net effect which
 depends on these four channels is ambiguous. Hence, we demonstrate that
 there exists an optimal defense burden that maximizes the economic growth
 rate.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 105-116 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1094881 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1094881 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aysegul Kayaoglu 
Author-X-Name-First: Aysegul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kayaoglu 
Title: Socioeconomic impact of conflict: state of emergency ruling in Turkey 
Abstract:
 Uprising tensions during 2010 in eastern and southeastern regions of
 Turkey provoked arguments about the necessity for a State of Emergency
 (SOE; &#x2018;Ola&#x11f;an&#xfc;st&#xfc; Hal&#x2019; in Turkish)
 declaration in those regions, with a belief of enduring political
 sustainability. The discussion is inflamed by a speech of the Nationalist
 Movement Party&#x2019;s leader about the suggestion to announce a SOE
 ruling after the death of 24 Turkish soldiers in Hakkari (a city in the
 southeast of Turkey) in an attack of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers&#x2019;
 Party) on the 19 October 2011. Although a new announcement of SOE did not
 take place, the discussion itself induced the idea behind this paper which
 is to provide a quantitative analysis of the SOE in Turkey. In fact, the
 SOE ruling is not a new concept for Turkey and it has been implemented in
 13 cities in the eastern and southeastern regions from 1987 to 2002.
 Although there have been many discussions about the costs of these 15
 years of the SOE ruling in terms of military expenditure and, thus, on the
 national budget, there is a lack of quantitative analytical examination of
 the economic and social costs of it. Difference-in-differences analysis
 reveals negative spillover impacts of the SOE, especially on the forced
 migration, unemployment, and educational investments. The results also
 show that SOE ruling is an important factor for the underdevelopment of
 the eastern and southeastern regions in Turkey and, thus, a new SOE will
 bring enormous inequalities, both economically and socially, and an
 intensification of the ethnic tensions in Turkey.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 117-136 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.891354 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.891354 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fumitaka Furuoka 
Author-X-Name-First: Fumitaka 
Author-X-Name-Last: Furuoka 
Author-Name: Mikio Oishi 
Author-X-Name-First: Mikio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Oishi 
Author-Name: Mohd Aminul Karim 
Author-X-Name-First: Mohd Aminul 
Author-X-Name-Last: Karim 
Title: Military expenditure and economic development in China: an empirical inquiry 
Abstract:
 Increases in military spending have a big impact on the socioeconomic
 conditions in any country. However, there is no consensus as to whether
 the rising military expenditure is beneficial or detrimental to economic
 growth. The present study chose China as a case study to empirically
 examine a complex relationship between military expenditure and economic
 development. The findings from the Johansen cointegration test indicated
 that there existed a long-run relationship between China&#x2019;s military
 spending and economic growth. Furthermore, the Granger causality test
 detected a unidirectional causality from economic development to military
 expenditure. These results were further confirmed by the findings from the
 impulse response function. This means that China represents an example of
 a developing economy where the size of military expenditure expands in the
 process of economic transformation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 137-160 
Issue: 1 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 2 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.898383 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.898383 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John T. Warner 
Author-X-Name-First: John T. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner 
Author-Name: Paul F. Hogan 
Author-X-Name-First: Paul F. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hogan 
Title: Walter Oi and his contributions to the All-Volunteer Force -- theory, evidence, persuasion 
Abstract:
 Walter Y. Oi died in late 2013 at the age of 84. Despite the fact that he
 was effectively blind since the 4th grade, he became a major contributor
 to the discipline of Economics and to public policy. An important public
 policy issue in the late 1960s and early 1970s was the military draft.
 Legislation to create a volunteer force was signed on 28 September 1971,
 and conscription was terminated on 30 June 1973. We discuss the key roles
 that Oi played in the termination of conscription and the subsequent
 implementation of a volunteer force, and we highlight his contributions to
 the discipline of Economics.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 161-171 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1111602 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1111602 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon 
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam 
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon 
Title: Special issue: defence inflation 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 172-175 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1123464 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1123464 
File-Format: text/html
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward G. Keating 
Author-X-Name-First: Edward G. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Keating 
Author-Name: Mark V. Arena 
Author-X-Name-First: Mark V. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Arena 
Title: Defense inflation: what has happened, why has it happened, and what can be done about it? 
Abstract:
 US Department of Defense (DoD) procurement and maintenance costs have
 risen considerably faster than economy-wide inflation over the last
 several decades. This outcome has occurred in large part because DoD
 decision-makers have demanded more complex, better maintained systems over
 time. Defense inflation is likely to abate when resourcing levels no
 longer accommodate these demands. Defense inflation should be viewed
 partially as a symptom, not just as a cause, of increased defense
 spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 176-183 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1093760 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1093760 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:2:p:176-183




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley 
Author-X-Name-First: Keith 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley 
Title: UK defence inflation and cost escalation 
Abstract:
 The UK experience with defence inflation and cost escalation is described
 and analysed. Evidence is presented and policy solutions are reviewed.
 Optimism bias is a source of cost escalation and this bias is analysed
 with game theory and public choice models. The key facts remain, namely,
 that defence inflation exceeds the GDP deflator, and despite various
 reforms, cost escalation continues.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 184-207 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1093757 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1093757 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:2:p:184-207




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjetil Hove 
Author-X-Name-First: Kjetil 
Author-X-Name-Last: Hove 
Author-Name: Tobias Lillekvelland 
Author-X-Name-First: Tobias 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lillekvelland 
Title: Investment cost escalation -- an overview of the literature and revised estimates 
Abstract:
 This article presents an overview of literature and previous estimates of
 defence specific investment cost escalation (ICE). ICE, the cost increase
 between two generations of a weapon system, can place a heavy strain on
 defence budgets if not properly accounted for. Previous literature
 specifically pinpoints the competition element as the main driver behind
 ICE. This article also discusses the role of technology and of supply and
 demand. Finally, we provide more recent estimates of ICE, using more
 sophisticated methods than those previously used. Results indicate that
 ICE estimates are reduced when changes in weapon system characteristics
 are accounted for.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 208-230 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1093754 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1093754 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stanley A. Horowitz 
Author-X-Name-First: Stanley A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Horowitz 
Author-Name: Bruce R. Harmon 
Author-X-Name-First: Bruce R. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Harmon 
Author-Name: Daniel B. Levine 
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel B. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Levine 
Title: Inflation adjustments for defense acquisition 
Abstract:
 This paper describes recent research on cost indexes by the Institute for
 Defense Analyses. It was performed at the request of the Cost Assessment
 and Program Evaluation directorate in the Office of the Secretary of
 Defense to assist in meeting the requirement in the 2009 Weapon Systems
 Acquisition Reform Act to assess and update the cost deflators the Defense
 Department uses to adjust for price growth in costing and budgeting major
 systems. The paper&#x2019;s focus is on aircraft procurement. The research
 analyzes deflator algorithms and data to determine the source of the wide
 differences in aircraft cost growth rates calculated by (a) the Gross
 Domestic Product deflator for the entire US market basket of goods and
 services, (b) the national defense index for military aircraft published
 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and (c) the Producer Price Index for
 civilian aircraft published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The study
 demonstrates an alternative hedonic approach for calculating price indexes
 by using regression analysis to relate aircraft investment cost to the
 aircraft&#x2019;s specific physical and operational design features such
 as weight and speed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 231-257 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1093758 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1093758 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Nordlund 
Author-X-Name-First: Peter 
Author-X-Name-Last: Nordlund 
Title: Defence-specific inflation -- the Swedish perspective 
Abstract:
 This article uses a Swedish perspective and context to illustrate general,
 theoretical and applied, discussions on defense-specific inflation,
 productivity in defense, cost escalation of defense equipment, absolute
 and relative defense capability plus the construction and use of defense
 price indices. Sweden uses a Defense Price Index (FPI) which is a
 composite index of different civilan, non-defense, indices to
 &#x201c;automatically&#x201d; adjust the defense budget for price changes.
 This should ideally allow decision makers to concentrate on incremental
 decisions and their economic consequences when deciding on a new defense
 budget. This approach requires a high precision from FPI in targeting
 defense inflation. The problems with achieving such a precise index are
 illustrated in the article. Critical points, in particular, are defining
 and measuring productivity in defense and price and/or cost escalation of
 defense equipment. Another complication is that defense, and not only
 defense equipment, is a &#x201c;tournament good&#x201d; where the most
 important capability is the relative capability compared mainly with
 potential opponents in military conflicts and not the absolute capability.
 Since Sweden recently abolished conscription there are reflections on
 opportunity costs of conscription in the article as well as results from
 Swedish and other studies on cost escalation of defense equipment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 258-279 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1096571 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1096571 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:2:p:258-279




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juha-Matti Lehtonen 
Author-X-Name-First: Juha-Matti 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lehtonen 
Author-Name: Jukka Anteroinen 
Author-X-Name-First: Jukka 
Author-X-Name-Last: Anteroinen 
Title: The Capability Factors as Explanatory Variables of Equipment Unit Cost Growth: A Methodological Proposal 
Abstract:
 In clarifying the conceptual and terminological issues of the unit cost
 growth of military equipment, six recent empirical studies on unit cost
 growth are reviewed and evaluated in this article. Even though the
 reported unit cost growth rates differ between equipment type and the
 individual studies, all of the studies find the unit cost growth rates of
 each military equipment type exceeding inflation. Various explanations
 proposed by different authors are reviewed. Unit cost growth studies omit
 corrections for quality changes of equipment, unlike the standard practice
 in inflation calculation. By bringing the military capability perspective
 into the discussion of unit cost growth, this article proposes a new
 approach to equipment unit cost growth, thereby enabling the collective
 evaluation of quality change with price change. This approach is
 demonstrated through a case study involving an armoured personnel carrier
 (APC). Although the price of the APC had increased sixfold with only a
 minor improvement in transportation capability, the proposed approach
 shows that the purchasing decisions of its successive generations may have
 still been cost-effective. The APC case demonstrated that the proposed
 approach can be successfully applied and yield meaningful results.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 280-298 
Issue: 2 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 4 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033886 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033886 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:2:p:280-298




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ryan A. Compton 
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Compton 
Author-Name: Bryan Paterson 
Author-X-Name-First: Bryan 
Author-X-Name-Last: Paterson 
Title: Military Spending and Growth: The Role of Institutions 
Abstract:
 Recent literature on whether military spending affects economic growth
 argues that the relationship may be a conditional one. We add to this
 literature by considering the role that &#x2018;good institutions&#x2019;
 play in the effect of military spending on growth. Using data from a
 sample of over 100 countries from 1988 to 2010, our analysis suggests that
 the effect of military spending on growth is generally negative or zero at
 best, and this effect is mitigated in the presence of good economic and
 political institutions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 301-322 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1060022 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1060022 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:301-322




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karl Skogstad 
Author-X-Name-First: Karl 
Author-X-Name-Last: Skogstad 
Title: Defence budgets in the post-Cold War era: a spatial econometrics approach 
Abstract:
 This paper examines the determinants of national defence budgets in the
 post-Cold War era employing a spatial econometric framework. Using data
 for 124 countries over a 16-year time period, I examine spatial
 relationships in defence spending to investigate how countries account for
 the military spending of other countries when setting their budgets. Using
 specially developed weighting matrices, the regression results indicate
 that defence budgets are positively spatially correlated. These results
 provide support for the use of &#x2018;external&#x2019; factors when
 examining defence budgets over this time period. The importance of a
 country&#x2019;s spatial location when setting its budget is further
 examined through the identification of regions of high and low defence
 spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 323-352 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1034911 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1034911 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mauricio Cardenas 
Author-X-Name-First: Mauricio 
Author-X-Name-Last: Cardenas 
Author-Name: Marcela Eslava 
Author-X-Name-First: Marcela 
Author-X-Name-Last: Eslava 
Author-Name: Santiago Ramirez 
Author-X-Name-First: Santiago 
Author-X-Name-Last: Ramirez 
Title: Why internal conflict deteriorates state capacity? Evidence from Colombian municipalities 
Abstract:
 Previous work has documented a negative correlation between internal
 conflict and state capacity. We attempt to shed light on mechanisms that
 underlie this relationship, using data for Colombian municipalities. We
 rely on identifying heterogeneous effects of different types of violent
 events on state capacity, taking advantage of variability across
 municipalities in the prevalence of specific manifestations of conflict
 and their intensity. Our findings suggest that events making civilians
 feel targeted affect the state&#x2019;s capacity to collect taxes, while
 those reflecting a stronger military capacity of illegal armies, in
 particular their large-scale attacks, affect the state&#x2019;s capacity
 to provide public goods.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 353-377 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.955668 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.955668 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:353-377




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vusal Musayev 
Author-X-Name-First: Vusal 
Author-X-Name-Last: Musayev 
Title: Externalities in Military Spending and Growth: The Role of Natural Resources as a Channel through Conflict 
Abstract:
 This investigation re-examines the potential sources of positive
 externalities for the relationship between military spending and economic
 growth using recent advances in panel estimation methods and a large
 data-set on military expenditure. The investigation provides a new
 analysis on the relationship between conflict, corruption, natural
 resources and military expenditure and their direct and indirect effects
 on economic growth. The analysis finds that the impact of military
 expenditure on growth is generally negative as in the literature, but that
 it is not significantly detrimental for countries facing higher internal
 threats and for countries with large natural resource wealth once
 corruption levels are accounted for.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 378-391 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.994833 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.994833 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:378-391




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chi Keung Marco Lau 
Author-X-Name-First: Chi Keung Marco 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lau 
Author-Name: Ender Demir 
Author-X-Name-First: Ender 
Author-X-Name-Last: Demir 
Author-Name: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin 
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet Huseyin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Bilgin 
Title: A Nonlinear Model of Military Expenditure Convergence: Evidence From Estar Nonlinear Unit Root Test 
Abstract:
 The paper builds a model to empirically test military expenditure
 convergence in a nonlinear set up. We assert that country A chooses a
 military strategy of catching up with the military expenditure of its
 rivals, subject to public spending constraints on public investments,
 including health and education, leading to decrease in long-term economic
 welfare. This implies nonlinear convergence path: only when the military
 expenditure gap between countries reaches the threshold level, will it
 provide incentives to catch up with rival&#x2019;s military expenditures.
 We test this nonlinear catching up hypothesis for 37 countries spanning
 from 1988 to 2012. Results from individual nonlinear cross-sectionally
 augmented Dickey--Fuller (NCADF) regression indicate that 53% of countries
 converge to world&#x2019;s average military expenditure: where 39% of
 countries converge to Germany; 33% of countries converge to China; 22% of
 countries converge to the USA, and 11% of countries converge to Russia.
 Interestingly, USA does not exhibit nonlinear military expenditure
 convergence toward world&#x2019;s average level. For panel NCADF
 regression, the result suggests that on average, there is evidence for
 countries converging to USA&#x2019;s military expenditure at 10%
 significance level. For the convergence to the world&#x2019;s average, the
 statistical significance is at the 1% significance level.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 392-403 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1016296 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1016296 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:392-403




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Colin Jennings 
Author-X-Name-First: Colin 
Author-X-Name-Last: Jennings 
Title: Group support for political violence: The role of emotions and expressive choice in creating conflict or providing peace 
Abstract:
 This paper provides a rationale for group support for political violence
 which does not provide a material benefit. Rabin&#x2019;s (1993) theory of
 fairness is adopted to demonstrate that although group violence may not be
 a Nash equilibrium it may be a fairness equilibrium in a game containing
 psychological payoffs. For this to happen the material stakes must be
 perceived as low and psychological payoffs are expressive. Although the
 material stakes are actually high, members of each group may choose
 expressively to support the use of violence because the probability of
 being decisive is low. The paper also considers the possibility of peace
 emerging as a fairness equilibrium. This can only happen if each group
 perceives the other as making some sacrifice in choosing peace.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 404-422 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.996005 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.996005 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:404-422




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Pestana Barros 
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Pestana 
Author-X-Name-Last: Barros 
Title: Country survey: Angola 
Abstract:
 This paper is a survey of Angola&#x2019;s defence sector and policy from
 1992, the year the civil war ended, to 2012. Angola achieved its
 independence upon the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA)
 defeating National Union for the Total Independence of Angola. Since then,
 fuelled by its rich natural resources, the country has grown steadily. The
 MPLA military forces were a central factor behind independence and
 maintain their central role to this day. Moreover, Angola&#x2019;s support
 for African peace with monitoring military missions is a clear indication
 that the country aims to intervene in African security and military
 issues, with its military capabilities funded by oil revenues.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 423-432 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.976388 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.976388 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:423-432




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: &#xdc;nal T&#xf6;ng&#xfc;r 
Author-X-Name-First: &#xdc;nal 
Author-X-Name-Last: T&#xf6;ng&#xfc;r 
Author-Name: Adem Yavuz Elveren 
Author-X-Name-First: Adem Yavuz 
Author-X-Name-Last: Elveren 
Title: The impact of military spending and income inequality on economic growth in Turkey 
Abstract:
 An extensive literature on the effect of military expenditures on economic
 growth yields conflicting results. However, a crucial issue that has not
 been investigated in this context is the possible effect of inequality.
 The impact of military expenditures on economic growth in Turkey has also
 received substantial attention. Yet, the majority of these studies are not
 constructed based on a structural model, but rather examine the causality
 between the variables in question. Considering these two shortcomings in
 the literature and the lack of consistent results, this study attempts to
 provide further evidence for the relationship between military
 expenditures and economic growth for the case of Turkey by considering
 income inequality within an augmented Solow growth model. Our findings for
 the 1963--2008 period show that while income inequality has a positive
 impact on economic growth, military expenditures have no significant
 effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 433-452 
Issue: 3 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 6 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.925324 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.925324 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:3:p:433-452




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luis A. Gil-Alana 
Author-X-Name-First: Luis A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Gil-Alana 
Author-Name: Prakarsh Singh 
Author-X-Name-First: Prakarsh 
Author-X-Name-Last: Singh 
Title: Growth recovery after civil conflict: a fractional integration approach 
Abstract:
 Using recent econometric techniques based on fractional integration, we
 find that developing countries recover their economic growth faster than
 developed countries in response to a shock. Following this methodology, we
 find that longer civil conflicts are associated with a faster recovery
 process. We further investigate this issue by exploring correlations with
 components of GDP, military spending, institutions and aid and find
 heterogeneous effects of these channels by duration of conflict. Higher
 government spending is correlated with faster recoveries post longer
 conflicts, and higher consumption spending is linked to faster recoveries
 following shorter conflicts. Military spending appears to be driving the
 government expenditure that makes countries recover from longer conflicts.
 More democratic institutions are associated with faster recoveries post
 short wars but slower recoveries following long wars.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 453-479 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1072375 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1072375 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:4:p:453-479




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dursun Peksen 
Author-X-Name-First: Dursun 
Author-X-Name-Last: Peksen 
Title: Economic sanctions and official ethnic discrimination in target countries, 1950--2003 
Abstract:
 Conventional studies on the consequences of sanctions tend to focus on the
 target society as a whole without specifying how foreign economic
 pressures might affect the well-being of vulnerable groups within target
 countries -- the same groups who often disproportionately bear the burden
 of sanctions. This study explores the extent to which sanctions increase
 the likelihood of discriminatory government practices against one of the
 globally most vulnerable groups, ethnic groups. It is argued that
 sanctions contribute to the rise of official ethnic-based economic and
 political discrimination through contracting the economy and creating
 incentives for the target government to employ ethnic-based discriminatory
 policies. Using data on over 900 ethnic groups from 1950 to 2003, the
 results lend support for the theoretical claim that sanctions prompt the
 government to pursue ethnic-based discriminatory economic and political
 practices in multiethnic countries. The findings also indicate that
 multilateral sanctions are likely to be more harmful to the well-being of
 ethnic groups than sanctions levied by individual countries. Further, the
 negative effect of comprehensive sanctions appears to be greater than that
 of sanctions with moderate and limited impact on the target economy. The
 regime type of the target state, on the other hand, appears to have a
 significant role only in conditioning the hypothesized effect of sanctions
 on economic discrimination. Overall, this study&#x2019;s focus on a
 vulnerable segment of the target society -- ethnic groups -- offers a
 greater understanding of the consequences of sanctions. It also provides
 additional insight as to how, in multiethnic countries, political elites
 might domestically respond to external pressures to retain power.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 480-502 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.920219 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.920219 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bj&#xf6;rn Kauder 
Author-X-Name-First: Bj&#xf6;rn 
Author-X-Name-Last: Kauder 
Author-Name: Niklas Potrafke 
Author-X-Name-First: Niklas 
Author-X-Name-Last: Potrafke 
Title: The growth in military expenditure in Germany 1951--2011: did parties matter? 
Abstract:
 We examine whether government ideology was correlated with the growth in
 military expenditure in Germany over the period 1951--2011. Using various
 measures of government ideology, the results do not show any effect. The
 exception is an ideology measure based on the Comparative Manifesto
 Project (left-right scale): using this measure, the results show that the
 growth in military expenditure increased by about 2.4 percentage points,
 when the ideology variable (right-wing) increased by one standard
 deviation. This effect, however, is based on observations until the early
 1960s and cannot be generalized. The major political parties agreed on how
 to evaluate international risks and threats. Government ideology retired
 to the background. We conjecture that the consensus among the major
 parties will persist -- even if military spending needs to be increased in
 response to new international risks and threats.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 503-519 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1050276 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1050276 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kai A. Konrad 
Author-X-Name-First: Kai A. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Konrad 
Author-Name: Florian Morath 
Author-X-Name-First: Florian 
Author-X-Name-Last: Morath 
Title: Evolutionary determinants of war 
Abstract:
 This paper considers evolutionarily stable decisions about whether to
 initiate violent conflict rather than accepting a peaceful sharing
 outcome. Focusing on small sets of players such as countries in a
 geographically confined area, we use the concept of evolutionary stability
 in finite populations. We find that players&#x2019; evolutionarily stable
 preferences widen the range of peaceful resource allocations that are
 rejected in favor of violent conflict, compared to the Nash equilibrium
 outcomes. Relative advantages in fighting strength are reflected in the
 equilibrium set of peaceful resource allocations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 520-534 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.995890 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.995890 
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giampiero Giacomello 
Author-X-Name-First: Giampiero 
Author-X-Name-Last: Giacomello 
Author-Name: Luca Lambertini 
Author-X-Name-First: Luca 
Author-X-Name-Last: Lambertini 
Title: Defensive weapons and star wars: a supergame with optimal punishments 
Abstract:
 We model the perspective faced by nuclear powers involved in a supergame
 where nuclear deterrence is used to stabilise peace. This setting allows
 us to investigate the bearings of defensive weapons on the effectiveness
 of deterrence and peace stability, relying on one-shot optimal
 punishments. We find that the sustainability of peace is unaffected by
 defensive shields if the latter are symmetric across countries, while
 asymmetric endowments of such weapons have clear-cut destabilising
 consequences.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 535-548 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1055937 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1055937 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:4:p:535-548




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gonzalo F-de-C&#xf3;rdoba 
Author-X-Name-First: Gonzalo 
Author-X-Name-Last: F-de-C&#xf3;rdoba 
Author-Name: Jos&#xe9; L. Torres 
Author-X-Name-First: Jos&#xe9; L. 
Author-X-Name-Last: Torres 
Title: National security, military spending and the business cycle 
Abstract:
 This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model where
 national security is an argument in the agent&#x2019;s utility function
 and the government chooses optimally the level of military spending to
 maximize social welfare. National defense depends on military expenditure
 and on the strategic environment reflecting a potential hostile external
 threat. We use aggregate data on consumption, investment, and military
 spending for the US economy to estimate the parameters of the model.
 Estimation results suggest that consumption and national defense are
 complements and that military spending variability is mainly explained by
 external threat shocks although it also depends on the macroeconomic
 conditions. We compute impulse response functions of the main
 macroeconomic variables to several shocks: a total factor productivity
 shock, a defense technology shock, and a strategic environment shock.
 Surprisingly, we find that the optimal response to an increase in the
 external threat (a worsening in the strategic environment) will rise
 output by reducing consumption and increasing investment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 549-570 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.891353 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.891353 
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:4:p:549-570




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yemane Wolde-Rufael 
Author-X-Name-First: Yemane 
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde-Rufael 
Title: Military expenditure and income distribution in South Korea 
Abstract:
 This paper attempts to investigate the long-run and the causal
 relationship between military expenditure and income distribution in South
 Korea for the period 1965--2011. Applying the bounds test approach to
 cointegration, we found a long-run relationship between military
 expenditure and the Gini coefficient with military expenditure having a
 positive and a statistically significant impact on income inequality. A 1%
 rise in military expenditure increased the Gini coefficient by 0.38%.
 Application of the lag-augmented causality test also reveals a
 unidirectional causality running from military expenditure to income
 inequality. The evidence seems to suggest that devoting more resources to
 the military sector may further worsen income inequality in South Korea.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics 
Pages: 571-581 
Issue: 4 
Volume: 27 
Year: 2016 
Month: 8 
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.960247 
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.960247 
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:4:p:571-581




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: José M. Fernández
Author-X-Name-First: José M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Fernández
Author-Name: Matteo Pazzona
Author-X-Name-First: Matteo
Author-X-Name-Last: Pazzona
Title: Evaluating the Spillover Effects of the Colombian Conflict in Ecuador
Abstract: 
 The Colombian civil war lasted for nearly six decades with approximately 10 percent of its population being displaced over the same period. The implications of this conflict have transgressed international boundaries. Countries such as Ecuador experienced an exodus of victims as well as an increase in the presence of armed groups, along with the proliferation of illegal businesses. Even though the internal social and economic consequences of the Colombian conflict have been documented in the literature, there is yet to be a study addressing these issues from the perspective of impacted neighboring countries. In this work, we contribute to the literature by evaluating whether the influx of asylum seekers and the increasing presence of armed groups in the bordering provinces of Ecuador have lead to an increase in violence among these provinces. We do not find any link between the arrival of asylum seekers and the incidence of violent crimes in the Ecuadorean bordering provinces. Similarly, our results indicate that despite an increase in the presence of armed groups, these regions did not experience an increase in the homicide rates significantly different from the other provinces. The results are robust to various specifications and econometric techniques.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 324-348
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1328562
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1328562
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:324-348




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keisuke Nakao
Author-X-Name-First: Keisuke
Author-X-Name-Last: Nakao
Title: Transnational policing: preemption and deterrence against elusive perpetrators
Abstract: 
 Why does a state directly police certain kinds of transnational perpetrators by itself while indirectly policing other kinds through their host government? To address this question, we develop a formal model, where Defender chooses either to police Perpetrators or to make Proxy do so. According to our theory, the delegation of policing can enhance its effectiveness in light of Proxy’s three advantages: (a) Proxy can convince Perpetrators of punishments more credibly than Defender (communicative advantage); (b) Proxy is more likely to identify Perpetrators and detect what they hold dear (informational advantage); (c) Proxy can cripple and punish Perpetrators more effectively (offensive advantage). On the other hand, the delegation may cause inefficiency if Defender has limited information about Proxy’s choice or cost of policing. Depending on the relative size between these advantages and disadvantages, one of the following four forms of policing may emerge: (i) Defender polices Perpetrators on her own (e.g. Somali counter-piracy operations); (ii) Defender induces Proxy to police Perpetrators (U.S. War on Drugs in Colombia and Mexico); (iii) Defender and Proxy together police Perpetrators (Operation Inherent Resolve); (iv) two or more Defender-Proxy states police Perpetrators in each’s own domain (Interpol, Budapest Convention).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 349-366
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1331081
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1331081
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:349-366




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: T. Gries
Author-X-Name-First: T.
Author-X-Name-Last: Gries
Author-Name: M. Redlin
Author-X-Name-First: M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Redlin
Title: Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy
Abstract: 
 This article examines the impact of youth bulges and the lack of perspective of this cohort associated with the insufficient absorption of the labor market on the emergence of piracy acts. For a large panel data-set on maritime piracy and armed robbery against ships for the period 1990–2015 negative binomial regression results indicate that a large fraction of young people in a country increases the likelihood of piracy attacks originating from that country. Further, the piracy-driving effect is conditional on constrains in the labor market. It increases when the young population is insufficiently integrated into the labor market and becomes insignificant for high levels of labor force participation. The dearth of prospects seems to lower the inhibition to make a living from criminal activity.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 309-323
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1333797
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1333797
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:309-323




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Soumyanetra Munshi
Author-X-Name-First: Soumyanetra
Author-X-Name-Last: Munshi
Title: On Government-industry Nexus and Indigenous Armed Resistance
Abstract: 
 This paper proposes a simple game-theoretic framework for analyzing the relationship between the government, industry and indigenous community, especially in the context of mounting violence surrounding displacement of indigenous communities by governments for the purposes of commercial use of their habitat. It specifically takes into account the possibility of alleged ‘nexus’ between the government and the industry and explores its implications on the level of allocation and utilities of the players. We find that the bias in allocation that occurs when the government and the industry enter a ‘nexus’ can be rectified when there is resistance from the indigenous groups. Moreover, rebellion is a dominant strategy of the indigenous community, irrespective of whether there is ‘nexus’ or not, and being in ‘nexus’ with the government is a best response for the industry. The unique SPNE occurs when there is ‘nexus’ between the industry and the government and resistance by the indigenous groups, corroborating the widespread allegations of ‘nexus’ and evidence of resistance worldwide. We also explore a few extensions of the basic model and present some narrative evidence in support of the theoretical model.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 278-308
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1354172
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1354172
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:278-308




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dursun Peksen
Author-X-Name-First: Dursun
Author-X-Name-Last: Peksen
Title: Autocracies and Economic Sanctions: The Divergent Impact of Authoritarian Regime Type on Sanctions Success
Abstract: 
 There is some consensus in the literature that economic sanctions targeting authoritarian regimes are less effective than those against democratic regimes. This line of research, however, assumes that autocratic regimes are monolithic and that they have similar capacities to resist foreign pressure. This study argues that the success rate of sanctions against dictatorships is contingent on institutional differences across different types of autocracies. I develop a theoretical model indicating that single-party and military regimes are less likely to concede to foreign pressure compared to democracies. This is because they effectively use various repressive tactics and positive inducements to endure the costs of the coercion. Sanctions against personalist regimes, on the other hand, are likely to be as effective as sanctions directed at democracies. Personalist regimes might be inclined to acquiesce to foreign pressure due to their lack of strong institutional capacity to weather the costs of the sanctions. Results from the selection-corrected models show that sanctions against military or single-party regimes are less likely to induce concessions relative to democratic target regimes. The findings also indicate that there is no significant difference in the success rate of sanctions against personalist regimes and democratic governments.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 253-268
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1368258
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1368258
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elie Bouri
Author-X-Name-First: Elie
Author-X-Name-Last: Bouri
Author-Name: Riza Demirer
Author-X-Name-First: Riza
Author-X-Name-Last: Demirer
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta
Author-Name: Hardik A. Marfatia
Author-X-Name-First: Hardik A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Marfatia
Title: Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note
Abstract: 
 This study applies a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test to examine the causal effect of geopolitical risks on return and volatility dynamics of Islamic equity and bond markets. Geopolitical risks are generally found to impact Islamic equity market volatility measures, rather than returns. However, geopolitical risks tend to predict both returns and volatility measures of Islamic bonds. Interestingly, causality, when it exists for returns and/or volatility of Islamic equities and bonds, is found to hold over entire conditional distributions of returns and volatilities, barring the extreme ends of the same.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 367-379
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1424613
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1424613
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:367-379




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Konrad Grabiszewski
Author-X-Name-First: Konrad
Author-X-Name-Last: Grabiszewski
Author-Name: Dylan Minor
Author-X-Name-First: Dylan
Author-X-Name-Last: Minor
Title: Economic Espionage
Abstract: 
 We explore the efficacy of counterespionage measures in the realm of Economic Espionage. Although it is possible that increasing counterespionage measures has the desired effect of increasing domestic research and development (R&D) and reducing espionage by foreign entities, it is also possible that these increased measures actually do just the opposite: domestic R&D suffers and foreign stealing increases. We identify the appropriate settings for increased counterespionage measures and provide some policy advice.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 269-277
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1477400
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1477400
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:3:p:269-277




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Catherine C. Langlois
Author-X-Name-First: Catherine C.
Author-X-Name-Last: Langlois
Author-Name: Jean-Pierre P. Langlois
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Pierre P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Langlois
Title: Rational deterrence by proxy: designing cooperative security agreements
Abstract: 
 President Obama’s call for change in the conduct of US foreign policy shifts emphasis from direct interventions to cooperative partnerships. With a $5$ \$5 $ billion pledge as support for their development, the issue of effectiveness and design is brought to the fore. If terror organizations cannot be eradicated, can a donor state successfully delegate the deterrence or at least the containment of a violent non-state actor to the host country from which it operates? We identify, assess for impact, and value rational delegated deterrence arrangements, in which the US subsidizes a host, and the host, with agreed upon vigor, inhibits the activity of the violent non-state actor operating within its borders. We account for the US’ imperfect monitoring of host and non-state actor activity and identify agreements that can successfully deter the targeted organizations. We also find that mutually agreeable weak cooperation between donor and host can endure despite the survival of the violent non-state actor on host territory.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-33
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1118943
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1118943
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Travers B. Child
Author-X-Name-First: Travers B.
Author-X-Name-Last: Child
Author-Name: David Scoones
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Scoones
Title: Community preferences, insurgency, and the success of reconstruction spending
Abstract: 
 Existing theory on counterinsurgency does not adequately explain persistent insurrection in face of the reconstruction work currently underway in Afghanistan and Iraq. We starkly depart from the literature by developing a simple model of reconstruction allowing misalignment of occupier spending with community preferences. Insurgency arises endogenously as a result of the mix of spending rather than its level. Occupier insistence on its preferred path of reconstruction may lead to fewer projects of any kind being completed. In equilibrium, the occupier may accept an endogenous insurgency to achieve a preferred project mix, or be constrained in its choice even when no insurgency occurs.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 34-52
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1050802
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1050802
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mario Ferrero
Author-X-Name-First: Mario
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferrero
Title: The Rationality of Serb Leaders in the Bosnian War
Abstract: 
 This paper asks whether Bosnian Serb leaders’ choice to carry out a secession war in 1992–1995 was rational from the point of view of their stated goal of ethnic cleansing. We construct two indexes, one of ethnic purity and another of ethnic Serb concentration, and apply them to a counterfactual estimate of the outcome of ‘peaceful’ ethnic cleansing – what could have been achieved by population exchange based on pre-war territorial Serb power without war – in comparison to the actual outcome of the war. We find that the gross benefits of the chosen strategy of secession and war far exceed anything that could be achieved by the peaceful alternative. A conjectural assessment of perceived costs suggests that also net benefits were maximized by the war strategy. The implication for international deterrence policy is that credible judicial prosecution and punishment is the best way to alter the prospective perpetrators’ calculus.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 53-64
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1016294
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1016294
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mie Augier
Author-X-Name-First: Mie
Author-X-Name-Last: Augier
Author-Name: Robert McNab
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: McNab
Author-Name: Jerry Guo
Author-X-Name-First: Jerry
Author-X-Name-Last: Guo
Author-Name: Phillip Karber
Author-X-Name-First: Phillip
Author-X-Name-Last: Karber
Title: Defense spending and economic growth: evidence from China, 1952–2012
Abstract: 
 This paper examines whether defense expenditures contributed to economic growth in China for the 1952–2012 period. We examine the contribution of defense to economic growth using recently published official data on economic activity, defense, and government expenditures. We employ the Feder-Ram and augmented Solow models of economic growth to explore the defense-growth relationship. The Feder-Ram model appears to poorly explain economic growth in China. The augmented Solow model suggests, however, that a 1% increase in defense expenditures raises the economic growth rate by approximately 0.15–0.19%.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 65-90
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1099204
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1099204
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter E. Robertson
Author-X-Name-First: Peter E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Robertson
Author-Name: Adrian Sin
Author-X-Name-First: Adrian
Author-X-Name-Last: Sin
Title: Measuring hard power: China’s economic growth and military capacity
Abstract: 
 China’s rapid economic growth is facilitating massive increases in its military spending and causing increased security concerns in Asia and the Western Pacific. But there is uncertainty over how large China’s military spending is relative to other countries, or how fast it is growing in real terms. We address this issue by deriving a relative military cost price index based on the relative unit costs of inputs. We find that China’s real military spending is much larger than suggested by exchange rate comparisons, and even larger than standard purchasing power parity comparisons. We also find, however, that the real growth of China’s military spending has been smaller than conventionally thought. This is due to rapidly growing wages in China and the large share of personnel in China’s military budget.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 91-111
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033895
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033895
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadia Tahir
Author-X-Name-First: Nadia
Author-X-Name-Last: Tahir
Title: Does aid cause conflict in Pakistan?
Abstract: 
 This study provides evidence from Pakistan on how the delegated task of achieving strategic objectives of the donor can lead to incompatibility of aid objectives which then generates perpetual and multidimensional domestic conflict in the recipient society. We use count data method to estimate the relationship between aid and conflict. At the aggregate level, social sector spending, regime change and youth bulge are positively and significantly related with conflict. However, aid per capita gives ambiguous results. It is significant with conflict count in the terrorism data-set and insignificant for data on armed conflict. Inclusion of youth bulge and unemployment rate confirms the marginalization hypothesis of conflict. Inflation rate and the tax variables are insignificant. This confirms that aid erodes fiscal capacity. At project-level data, conflict is strongly related with aid commitment and purpose. Discrepancy in aid allocation and commitment may accentuate conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 112-135
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.1000007
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.1000007
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:1:p:112-135




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Corrigendum
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: x-x
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1168983
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1168983
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dripto Bakshi
Author-X-Name-First: Dripto
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakshi
Author-Name: Indraneel Dasgupta
Author-X-Name-First: Indraneel
Author-X-Name-Last: Dasgupta
Title: A model of dynamic conflict in ethnocracies
Abstract: 
 We model an infinitely repeated Tullock contest, over the sharing of some given resource, between two ethnic groups. The resource is allocated by a composite state institution according to relative ethnic control; hence the ethnic groups contest the extent of institutional ethnic bias. The contest yields the per-period relative influence over institutions, which partly spills over into the next period, by affecting relative conflict efficiency. Our model generates non-monotone evolution of both conflict and distribution. Results suggest that external interventions, when effective in reducing current conflict and protecting weaker groups, may end up sowing the seeds of greater future conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 147-170
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1092204
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1092204
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Asha Abdel-Rahim
Author-X-Name-First: Asha
Author-X-Name-Last: Abdel-Rahim
Author-Name: Dany Jaimovich
Author-X-Name-First: Dany
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaimovich
Author-Name: Aleksi Ylönen
Author-X-Name-First: Aleksi
Author-X-Name-Last: Ylönen
Title: Forced displacement and behavioral change: an empirical study of returnee households in the Nuba Mountains
Abstract: 
 We use a unique data-set gathered during a short-lived interwar period in the Nuba Mountains of Sudan to compare characteristics of the households returning after the conflict with those that stayed in their communities of origin. We found that returning households seemed to face worse economic conditions, particularly in the case of female-headed returnee households. Nevertheless, our results show that returnees tend to perform better on different health indicators. Using a detailed set of variables about hygiene and sanitary habits, we explore the hypothesis that the latter result may be related to changes in attitudes given the distinct experiences during displacement. We show that returnees are indeed more likely to adopt these measures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 190-220
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1095515
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1095515
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:190-220




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yang-Ming Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Yang-Ming
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Author-Name: Zijun Luo
Author-X-Name-First: Zijun
Author-X-Name-Last: Luo
Author-Name: Yongjing Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Yongjing
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Title: The timing of third-party intervention in social conflict
Abstract: 
 This paper analyzes how the equilibrium outcome of social conflict between factions is strategically altered by third-party intervention. We consider an intervening third party that commits financial support to one of two contending factions for reducing its cost in conflict. Within the framework of three-player sequential-move games, we investigate the questions as follows. What is the optimal intervention intensity in terms of the third party’s financial support? Is there a first-mover advantage in conflict when there is third-party intervention? Fighting against all odds, will the unsupported faction have a chance to prevail when its opponent receives third-party support? What is the optimal timing of third-party intervention? The analysis in the paper has implications for the conditions under which the strategic intervention of a third party may or may not break a conflict between factions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 91-110
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1126918
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1126918
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:91-110




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjell Hausken
Author-X-Name-First: Kjell
Author-X-Name-Last: Hausken
Title: A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks
Abstract: 
 A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 111-129
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1158440
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1158440
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:111-129




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karl DeRouen
Author-X-Name-First: Karl
Author-X-Name-Last: DeRouen
Author-Name: Ishita Chowdhury
Author-X-Name-First: Ishita
Author-X-Name-Last: Chowdhury
Title: Mediation, Peacekeeping And Civil War Peace Agreements
Abstract: 
 The post-civil war agreement phase is vulnerable to credible commitment problems, a lack of government capacity to implement, and/or mutual vulnerability to retribution from violating the agreement. This study’s main contribution is to demonstrate the combined utility of mediation and UN peacekeeping. Mediation builds trust and confidence and works with the parties to design an efficacious agreement conducive to, among other features, tamping down post-agreement violence. Peacekeeping stems violence and facilitates the implementation of the agreement. Agreements that are mediated and followed by UN peacekeeping are expected to be more robust in terms of staving off violence. We report the effects of the mediation–peacekeeping interaction using a method correcting for a common misinterpretation of interaction terms. We test logit and hazard models using a sample of full and partial civil war peace agreements signed between 1975 and 2011. Controlling for agreement design, democracy, and income per capita, the results indicate mediation and its interaction with peacekeeping reduce the probability of renewed/continuing violence and have a positive impact on agreement duration. We also report brief case study evidence from the 1990s peace process in Guatemala.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 130-146
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1173439
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1173439
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:130-146




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emre Hatipoglu
Author-X-Name-First: Emre
Author-X-Name-Last: Hatipoglu
Author-Name: Dursun Peksen
Author-X-Name-First: Dursun
Author-X-Name-Last: Peksen
Title: Economic Sanctions and Banking Crises in Target Economies
Abstract: 
 What effect do economic sanctions have on the stability of banking systems in targeted economies? This manuscript advances the hypothesis that economic sanctions increase the likelihood of systematic banking crises by deteriorating the target economy’s macroeconomic conditions and limiting its access to international capital. To test the argument, we gathered data for over 125 emerging economies for the years from 1970 to 2005. The findings indicate that sanctions are likely to raise the probability of banking crises. The results also show that financial sanctions are more detrimental to the stability of banking systems than trade sanctions. Further, we find that the hypothesized effect of sanctions is conditioned by the extent of economic cost inflicted on targeted economies. One major implication of the findings is that sanctions, as external shocks, can potentially destabilize the financial stability of target countries in addition to the well-documented adverse effects on economic growth, political stability, and humanitarian conditions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 171-189
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1245811
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245811
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:171-189




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais
Title: The Political Economy of Predation, Manhunting and the Economics of Escape
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 221-223
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1345826
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1345826
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:2:p:221-223




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Theodore F. Figinski
Author-X-Name-First: Theodore F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Figinski
Title: Do Employers Favor those with Military Experience in the U.S. Reserve Forces? Evidence from a Field Experiment
Abstract: 
 This study examines whether completed service in the military reserves results in a civilian labor market benefit. Reservists are not completely absent from the civilian labor market during their military service, possibly allowing them to receive the benefits associated with military experience without forgoing valuable civilian labor market experience. Using a resume study, the results suggest that completed service in the military reserves, relative to no military experience, increases the probability of receiving a request for an interview by 19%.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 213-226
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1357521
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1357521
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:213-226




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nusrate Aziz
Author-X-Name-First: Nusrate
Author-X-Name-Last: Aziz
Author-Name: Usman Khalid
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Khalid
Title: Armed Conflict, Military Expenses and FDI Inflow to Developing Countries
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the relationship between military expenditure and FDI inflow conditioning on the exposure of a country to armed conflict in the long run. We apply the band spectrum regression estimator, and the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform, to a panel of 60 developing countries, for the years 1990 to 2013. The estimated results indicate that military expenditure, in the absence of armed conflict, reduces FDI inflow. However, the negative effect is mitigated by increased military expenditure, in the presence of armed conflict. We also show that the effect of military expenditure on FDI is time sensitive, in that it takes time for military expenditure to affect FDI inflow. FDI inflow in response to higher military expenditure is higher for the country that faces higher armed conflict than the country that faces lower armed conflict. The findings are robust in the case of overall as well as internal conflict. These results are also robust to the alternative specification, subsample analysis with different armed conflict thresholds, and the estimation using the time variant long-run models.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 238-251
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1388066
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1388066
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:238-251




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Aben
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques
Author-X-Name-Last: Aben
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel
Title: Military Expenditure as a Proxy for State Power. The Case of France
Abstract: 
 This paper attempts to build a simple indicator of state power. Military expenditure is the paper’s point of departure, with the definitions given by NATO, SIPRI and others. This definition is discussed and a power version is build, using French budgetary data. Then a defence of the result against traditional or non-traditional critics is presented under an imperative of action. Finally, this concept is enlarged and a new concept of power expenditures is given, one more time using French budgetary data. The conclusion is that this large expenditure concept is an unbiased but imperfect indicator of the will to act, and has to be completed by GDP to indicate the capability to act in the long-run.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 133-141
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1460714
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1460714
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:133-141




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Pascal Guironnet
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Pascal
Author-X-Name-Last: Guironnet
Author-Name: Antoine Parent
Author-X-Name-First: Antoine
Author-X-Name-Last: Parent
Title: Morts pour la France: Demographic or Economic Factors?
Abstract: 
 This article offers a comprehensive analysis of the database ‘Mémoire des hommes’, which is a record of more than 1 million French soldiers officially recognized as dead during the World War I (WWI). Integrating this source with the 1911 census, we evaluate the potential numbers of recruits by French regional department. From this, a model identifies the factors affecting the number of deaths. While demographic factors are the principal determinants, adding significant economic, political and spatial factors reduces the unexplained variance between regions and significantly improves the explanation of the disparity in the number of deaths by region.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 197-212
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1460715
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1460715
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:197-212




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean Belin
Author-X-Name-First: Jean
Author-X-Name-Last: Belin
Author-Name: Marianne Guille
Author-X-Name-First: Marianne
Author-X-Name-Last: Guille
Author-Name: Nathalie Lazaric
Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie
Author-X-Name-Last: Lazaric
Author-Name: Valérie Mérindol
Author-X-Name-First: Valérie
Author-X-Name-Last: Mérindol
Title: Defense Firms Adapting to Major Changes in the French R&D Funding System
Abstract: 
 The structural changes inside the French innovation system have impacted the role of defense firms since the late 1980s. Major changes have affected the defense budget and public R&D funding system in particular. The aim of this article is to understand French defense firms’ repositioning within the National Innovation System (NIS) based on an analysis of their R&D behavior over a long period of time (1987–2010). We show that French defense firms remain major players in the NIS and faced up to these major changes by adapting the funding of their R&D and their research priorities and rolling out new innovation capabilities. Additionally, they developed new innovation models to take advantage of new collaborative partnerships developed for civil and military markets.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 142-158
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1461790
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1461790
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Josselin Droff
Author-X-Name-First: Josselin
Author-X-Name-Last: Droff
Author-Name: Catherine Baumont
Author-X-Name-First: Catherine
Author-X-Name-Last: Baumont
Author-Name: Amaury Barra
Author-X-Name-First: Amaury
Author-X-Name-Last: Barra
Title: The Organization of the Defense Support System: An Economic Geography Perspective
Abstract: 
 In the context of restricted budgetary resources and the growing cost of maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities, a major issue for modern armed forces is to sustain defense platforms. A possible method consists of realizing economies of scale through the concentration of maintenance activities, which involves the spatial reorganization of existing industrial sites dedicated to MRO. This article provides a formalized framework to discuss the optimal organization for the MRO of defense platforms in space. The public planner organizes the maintenance of defense platforms with only two possible spatial configurations. In the dispersed configuration, two industrial production units in charge of the maintenance optimally cover space, whereas in the concentrated configuration, a unique industrial unit covers space. Focusing on the tipping point between the two configurations, the balance of forces between agglomeration and dispersion in defense support activities is described and discussed. On the one hand, economies of scale provide an opportunity to optimize defense support costs, favoring concentration in a unique industrial unit. On the other hand, space causes dispersion to reduce both transport costs and operational social costs. This trade-off illustrates a general principle in spatial economics with an application to MRO production in the French case.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 159-175
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1461791
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1461791
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:159-175




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cécile Fauconnet
Author-X-Name-First: Cécile
Author-X-Name-Last: Fauconnet
Author-Name: Julien Malizard
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard
Author-Name: Antoine Pietri
Author-X-Name-First: Antoine
Author-X-Name-Last: Pietri
Title: French Arms Exports and Intrastate Conflicts: An Empirical Investigation
Abstract: 
 The aim of this article is to evaluate how French Major Conventional Weapons (MCW) exports impact on the conflict intensity of recipient countries. The recent increase in French arms exports seems to contradict the French political discourse on the promotion of regional stability. We run zero-inflated ordered probit model in order to analyze the role of the arms trade on the intensity of civil conflicts in 144 countries from 1992 to 2014, using SIPRI and UCDP/PRIO data. Our results suggest that French MCW exports tended not to exacerbate intrastate conflicts during this period. This finding is robust to changes in the empirical framework. We propose two lines of explanations: France seems to be prone to choosing partners that respect human rights and selling more ‘defense-oriented’ MCW than the rest of the world.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 176-196
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1488371
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1488371
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:176-196




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adam Coutts
Author-X-Name-First: Adam
Author-X-Name-Last: Coutts
Author-Name: Adel Daoud
Author-X-Name-First: Adel
Author-X-Name-Last: Daoud
Author-Name: Ali Fakih
Author-X-Name-First: Ali
Author-X-Name-Last: Fakih
Author-Name: Walid Marrouch
Author-X-Name-First: Walid
Author-X-Name-Last: Marrouch
Author-Name: Bernhard Reinsberg
Author-X-Name-First: Bernhard
Author-X-Name-Last: Reinsberg
Title: Guns and butter? Military expenditure and health spending on the eve of the Arab Spring
Abstract: 
 We examine the validity of the guns-versus-butter hypothesis in the pre-Arab Spring era. Using panel data from 1995 to 2011 – the eve of the Arab uprisings – we find no evidence that increased security needs as measured by the number of domestic terrorist attacks are complemented by increased military spending or more importantly ‘crowd out’ government expenditure on key public goods such as health care. This suggests that both expenditure decisions were determined by other considerations at the government level.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 227-237
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1497372
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1497372
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:227-237




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julien Malizard
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard
Title: Introduction
Abstract: 
 The French defense policy has been considered unique among western countries. This policy relies on the concept of ‘strategic autonomy’, which is based on nuclear deterrence, autonomy of action, independence of defense industry, and arms exports. From an economic perspective, it implies major consequences both at the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels. Given its importance, it is crucial to use economic expertise to provide insights on defense policy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 129-132
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1521224
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1521224
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:2:p:129-132




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicholas Kyriazis
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas
Author-X-Name-Last: Kyriazis
Author-Name: Theodore Metaxas
Author-X-Name-First: Theodore
Author-X-Name-Last: Metaxas
Author-Name: Emmanouil M. L. Economou
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanouil M. L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Economou
Title: War for profit: English corsairs, institutions and decentralised strategy
Abstract: 
 In this study, we propose that in states with relatively weak central authorities, decision-makers had to develop market-oriented organisation solutions to successfully face a grave external threat, and these solutions proved to be efficient. Using an interdisciplinary approach that combines institutional theory, history and strategy, we analyse a case study, the use of corsairs (privateers) by England in the late sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries. We have found that the development of partnership companies went hand in hand for commercial and military purposes. English privateers proved to be economically efficient and superior to the centrally planned war operations of the Spanish empire.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 335-351
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1111601
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1111601
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:335-351




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Asteris
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Asteris
Author-Name: David Clark
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Clark
Author-Name: Shabbar Jaffry
Author-X-Name-First: Shabbar
Author-X-Name-Last: Jaffry
Title: The Economic Effect of Military Facility Contraction: A Naval Case Study
Abstract: 
 The global financial turmoil of 2008 has resulted in the curtailment of military expenditure in most western countries. At a sub-regional-level reductions in the level of activity at a major military facility can have significant economic impact. In the light of this, the paper has two objectives: to analyse the impact of the decision to terminate naval shipbuilding at the United Kingdom’s Portsmouth Naval Base; and, for illustrative purposes, to examine the possible economic consequences of further contraction at the facility. In pursuit of these aims, it is necessary to establish the output, income and employment generated by the base using a bespoke input–output model. The methodology employed can, with appropriate adjustments, be utilised in other military or civilian contexts.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 268-293
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1122281
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1122281
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:268-293




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vesa Kanniainen
Author-X-Name-First: Vesa
Author-X-Name-Last: Kanniainen
Author-Name: Staffan Ringbom
Author-X-Name-First: Staffan
Author-X-Name-Last: Ringbom
Title: Security gradient and national defense – the optimal choice between a draft army and a professional army
Abstract: 
 The earlier work on the optimal design of the national security has focused on the opportunity cost of the draft in terms of foregone human capital formation. The current paper introduces the national security into the welfare analysis missing from the earlier work. This creates a trade-off between the private goods and the security as a public good in the social cost–benefit analysis. There are three major results. First, and arising from the intergenerational interaction, it is optimal to introduce a pay to the young generation when in duty even by resorting to a distortive tax. Second, when optimizing the size of the army, the optimal choice between the draft army and the professional army depends on the risk class of the country. A security gradient arises. Third, the choice is linked to the size and the quality of the reserve generated by the two approaches.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 247-267
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1144898
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1144898
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:247-267




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jim Lee
Author-X-Name-First: Jim
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee
Title: The Regional Economic Effects of Military Base Realignments and Closures
Abstract: 
 This paper empirically investigates the impact of military base realignments and closures on regional economic activity in light of the 2005 round of Base Realignment and Closure actions. Baseline regressions with county-level data show employment multipliers comparable to those generated from conventional input–output models. However, controlling for possible endogeneity and other regional-specific factors, regressions indicate more tenuous results for spillover effects from the military to the private sector. Only the contractor type of base employment generated economically and statistically meaningful impacts on local employment. In addition, there is strong evidence of asymmetric effects between military buildups and drawdowns.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 294-311
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1170335
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1170335
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:294-311




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen
Author-X-Name-First: Stéphanie Vincent
Author-X-Name-Last: Lyk-Jensen
Author-Name: Ane Glad
Author-X-Name-First: Ane
Author-X-Name-Last: Glad
Title: Why do they serve? Changes and differences in motives of Danish soldiers deployed to peace-keeping and peace-enforcing missions
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates what motivates young people to volunteer for peace-keeping or peace-enforcing missions and how their motives change between pre- and post-deployment. Data include information about social and military background, and motives for more than 600 soldiers, 444 of whom answered the survey both before and after deployment. Soldiers are deployed to different missions under the same circumstances. To conceptualize motives among soldiers, we use factor analysis and find three factors: challenge, self-benefit, and fidelity. Challenge represents an occupational orientation; fidelity, an institutional orientation; and self-benefit, a desire for adventure. Exploiting the within-subject design of our data, we find that pre- and post-deployment motives vary significantly according to the type of mission and soldiers’ previous experiences (first-timers or experienced soldiers). Our results suggest that after the mission, peace-keepers are generally more disappointed than peace-enforcers. Our results also show that self-benefit motives are important for younger soldiers with only a high school education, and that this group usually serves as peace-enforcers during their gap year.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 312-334
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1200220
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1200220
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:312-334




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Martí Sempere
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Martí Sempere
Title: What Is Known About Defence Research And Development Spill-Overs?
Abstract: 
 This article surveys the body of available evidence regarding the spill-over effects of defence R&amp;D. It reviews the routes through which defence R&amp;D spills over to the economy with positive externalities – in terms of new products, technologies or processes; the barriers that impede or block such a process; potential negative repercussions, and the measure of such effects. The main conclusion is that the uncertainty of these effects, and the inaccurate appraisal of their value, hardly supports informed decisions concerning defence R&amp;D policies.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 225-246
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1239364
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1239364
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:225-246




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michel S. Zouboulakis
Author-X-Name-First: Michel S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Zouboulakis
Title: An Economic Analysis of Conflicts. With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946–1949 
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 352-354
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1422473
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1422473
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:3:p:352-354




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abdur R. Chowdhury
Author-X-Name-First: Abdur R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Chowdhury
Author-Name: Syed Mansoob Murshed
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mansoob
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed
Title: Conflict and fiscal capacity
Abstract: 
 We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with violent contestation over a rent or prize. Our dynamic panel empirical analysis applied to 79 developing countries, during 1980–2010, indicates that war, especially civil war, retards fiscal capacity, along with imperfect democracy, political repression, poor governance, and dependence on oil and macroeconomic mismanagement. High intensity conflict is particularly destructive of state capacity. In countries experiencing low intensity wars, other institutional factors may matter more than war. The diminution of fiscal capacity due to war appears less pronounced after the end of the cold war.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 583-608
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.948700
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.948700
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:583-608




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vincenzo Bove
Author-X-Name-First: Vincenzo
Author-X-Name-Last: Bove
Author-Name: Jennifer Brauner
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauner
Title: The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes
Abstract: 
 This paper examines whether there are systematic differences in military spending between different types of autocratic regimes. We view military expenditure as an instrument a dictator can exploit in order to stay in power. How he utilises this instrument depends on the institutional set-up of his regime. We distinguish between military regimes, single party states and personalist regimes, and predict that military regimes should have the highest, whereas personalist dictatorships should have the lowest level of military spending. Using panel data on 64 dictatorships from 1960 to 2000, we find empirical evidence that our hypotheses are not rejected.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 609-625
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.925325
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.925325
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:609-625




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind
Author-X-Name-Last: Du Bois
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Title: Military support and transnational terrorism
Abstract: 
 Analysing the relationship between the provision of military support and the probability of becoming the target of a terrorist attack, this paper contributes to the literature on the causes of transnational terrorism. We find that deployment of military troops of country X in country Y increases the probability of a terrorist attack on citizens of country X by a terrorist group located in country Y. Exporting weapons to country Y seems to increase the probability of being attacked by the terrorists of this country Y as well. Deploying materials, however, does not seem to significantly influence the probability of attack. Including lagged values for our military support variables ensures that the causality direction is from military support to terrorist attacks. Moreover, these results indicate that while the effect of military deployment on the probability of attack lasts for more than 1 year, the effect is rather short-lived.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 626-643
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.972087
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.972087
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:626-643




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kris De Jaegher
Author-X-Name-First: Kris
Author-X-Name-Last: De Jaegher
Author-Name: Britta Hoyer
Author-X-Name-First: Britta
Author-X-Name-Last: Hoyer
Title: Collective action and the common enemy effect
Abstract: 
 How is collective defence by players affected when they face a threat from an intelligent attacker rather than a natural threat? This paper analyses this question using a game-theoretic model. Facing an intelligent attacker has an effect if players move first and visibly set their defence strategies, thereby exposing any players who do not defend, and if the attacker is, moreover, not able to commit to a random attack. Depending on the parameters of the game, the presence of an intelligent attacker either increases the probability that players jointly defend (where such joint defence either does or does not constitute a utilitarian optimum), or decreases the probability that players jointly defend (even though joint defence is a utilitarian optimum).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 644-664
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.925676
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.925676
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:644-664




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ulrich Hendel
Author-X-Name-First: Ulrich
Author-X-Name-Last: Hendel
Title: ‘Look like the innocent flower, but be the serpent under’t’: mimicking behaviour of growth-oriented terrorist organizations
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 665-687
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.996006
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.996006
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:665-687




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicos Christodoulakis
Author-X-Name-First: Nicos
Author-X-Name-Last: Christodoulakis
Title: Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949
Abstract: 
 Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 688-717
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.1000010
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.1000010
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:688-717




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Shahbaz
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahbaz
Author-Name: Muhammad shahbaz Shabbir
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad shahbaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Shabbir
Author-Name: Muhammad sabihuddin Butt
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad sabihuddin
Author-X-Name-Last: Butt
Title: Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the effect of military spending on external debt in case of Pakistan for the period of 1973–2009. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration is used to examine cointegration among the variables. The ADF, P-P, and ADF-GLS unit root tests are applied to test the integrating order of the variables. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and error correction method regressions are used to investigate the marginal impact of military spending on external debt in the long and short run. Our findings indicate the existence of cointegration that confirms the presence of a long-run relationship among military spending, external debt, economic growth, and investment. Further, our results reveal that a rise in military spending increases the stock of external debt; an increase in investment also increases external debt; however, there is an inverse effect of economic growth on external debt. An implication of the findings reported herein is that there is a need to formulate a comprehensive economic policy for curtailing external debt in case of Pakistan.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 718-741
Issue: 5
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2012.724878
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2012.724878
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:718-741




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christos Kollias
Author-X-Name-First: Christos
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias
Title: Editorial Announcement
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1564971
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1564971
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Inmaculada Mart&#xED;nez-Zarzoso
Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada
Author-X-Name-Last: Mart&#xED;nez-Zarzoso
Author-Name: Florian Johannsen
Author-X-Name-First: Florian
Author-X-Name-Last: Johannsen
Title: The Gravity of Arms
Abstract: 
 The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 2-26
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1324722
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1324722
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:1:p:2-26




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eric Keels
Author-X-Name-First: Eric
Author-X-Name-Last: Keels
Title: Praying for Rain? Water Scarcity and the Duration and Outcomes of Civil Wars
Abstract: 
 Recent anecdotal evidence from the civil wars in Somalia and Yemen suggest that water scarcity may shape the dynamics of civil wars. While a considerable body of research has examined the connection between water scarcity (such as low rainfall) and the onset of civil war, very little research has examined how water scarcity may shape the duration and outcomes of civil wars. Looking specifically at rainfall, this paper argues that changes in access to water play a key role in the duration of civil wars. As rainfall declines, there is a reduction in resources available to both the government and the rebel group, leading to a stalemate in fighting. Furthermore, this paper argues that declines in rainfall are felt more acutely by rebel groups who seek to challenge the government through conventional warfare. This paper tests these propositions using hazard models. The results provide robust support for the propositions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 27-45
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1320184
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Roberto Ezcurra
Author-X-Name-First: Roberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Ezcurra
Title: Group Concentration and Violence: Does Ethnic Segregation Affect Domestic Terrorism?
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the link between ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism. The results show that ethnic segregation has a positive and significant effect on the incidence of domestic terrorism, which indicates that countries where ethnic groups are spatially concentrated face a higher risk of suffering this type of violence. This finding is not affected by the inclusion in the analysis of different covariates that may affect both ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism. The observed relationship between the degree of spatial concentration of ethnic groups and domestic terrorism is confirmed by various robustness tests. The results also suggest that the threat of secession is an important transmission channel linking ethnic segregation and domestic terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 46-71
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1315710
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1315710
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:1:p:46-71




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward Hunter Christie
Author-X-Name-First: Edward Hunter
Author-X-Name-Last: Christie
Title: The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia
Abstract: 
 A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007&#x2013;2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO&#x2019;s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 72-84
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1373542
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1373542
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vesa Kanniainen
Author-X-Name-First: Vesa
Author-X-Name-Last: Kanniainen
Author-Name: Juha-Matti Lehtonen
Author-X-Name-First: Juha-Matti
Author-X-Name-Last: Lehtonen
Title: Offset Contracts as an Insurance Device in Building the National Security
Abstract: 
 A dynamic multi-stage decision-theoretic approach is introduced to establish the optimal offset and its incidence, the contract price arising from bargaining, and the scale of the acquisition. A new rationale is suggested for offsets in terms of their role as an insurance devise. Results are derived for the pricing of delivery contracts subject to offset claims and their national security implications. It is shown that the national security is strictly convex in the offset transaction. As to the incidence of the offset, the offset claim is shown to be capitalised in the delivery price. The bargaining price is shown to depend on the value of the product to be delivered for the national security, the relative negotiation power of the contracting partners and the social cost of public funds. The analysis highlights the expectation effects of offsets on the bargaining price and the scale of delivery. The results aid in explaining why offsets are widely used in procurement contracts for defence materiel. As they contribute to the national security, they should be allowed to survive and not be denied under competition laws.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 85-97
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1335366
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1335366
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Helene Berg
Author-X-Name-First: Helene
Author-X-Name-Last: Berg
Author-Name: Ane Ofstad Presterud
Author-X-Name-First: Ane
Author-X-Name-Last: Ofstad Presterud
Author-Name: Morten &#xD8;hrn
Author-X-Name-First: Morten
Author-X-Name-Last: &#xD8;hrn
Title: Military Off the Shelf Procurements: A Norwegian Case Study
Abstract: 
 Buying off the shelf procurements (OTS) has become an important part of the national acquisition strategy in several countries, and this paper seeks to bring empirical evidence on OTS as the preferred acquisition strategy by use of data from 2015 to 2022 investment portfolio of the Norwegian Armed Forces. We develop definitions for three categories of procurement &#x2013; OTS, modified OTS and development projects &#x2013; as well as a method to classify projects into these categories. Our first finding is that the characteristics of OTS projects correspond to modified OTS and development projects. Our second finding indicates that OTS projects perform better when it comes to the completion of projects according to the initial schedule, compared to development projects.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 98-110
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1342182
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1342182
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dimitri Percia David
Author-X-Name-First: Dimitri
Author-X-Name-Last: Percia David
Author-Name: Marcus Matthias Keupp
Author-X-Name-First: Marcus Matthias
Author-X-Name-Last: Keupp
Author-Name: Ricardo Marino
Author-X-Name-First: Ricardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Marino
Author-Name: Patrick Hofstetter
Author-X-Name-First: Patrick
Author-X-Name-Last: Hofstetter
Title: The Persistent Deficit of Militia Officers in the Swiss Armed Forces: An Opportunity Cost Explanation
Abstract: 
 The Swiss Armed Forces are suffering from a structural deficit of militia officers despite good pay and a general supportive attitude in the population. Whereas, prior studies have focused on motivation to explain understaffing in armed forces, we offer an alternative approach based on opportunity cost. We model decision alternatives both within and outside a military organization, taking private sector employment as the reference point. We then monetize opportunity costs of leisure, fringe benefits, and private sector income not compensated. Our results suggest that in terms of opportunity cost, service as a militia officer is the least attractive option, an effect that we believe explains the persistent staff deficit. Implications of these findings for the literature and recruitment policy are discussed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 111-127
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1354171
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1354171
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana
Author-X-Name-First: Luis Alberiko
Author-X-Name-Last: Gil-Alana
Author-Name: Joao Ricardo Faria
Author-X-Name-First: Joao Ricardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Faria
Title: Carlos Pestana Barros
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 271-271
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1303897
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1303897
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Richard A.I. Johnson
Author-X-Name-First: Richard A.I.
Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson
Title: The role and capabilities of major weapon systems transferred between 1950 and 2010: Empirical examinations of an arms transfer data set
Abstract: 
 Arms transfers provide exporters an avenue to provide security to other states while gaining economic benefits. Arms transfers provide importers an avenue to gain security without having to rely on alliances. Past research uses aggregate measures of the monetary or security value of major weapon system transfers without accounting for strategic differences in possible use in interstate and civil conflict. This article presents a data set on interstate transfers of major weapon systems between 1950 and 2010 building upon Stockholm Peach Research Institute’s Arms Trade Register with several improvements. First, it disaggregates land weapons and air weapons into categories reflecting their strategic capabilities. Second, model level characteristics (e.g. age, speed, and range) are drawn from Jane’s Defence sources. Additionally, the data set covers a larger range of time and states than previous data sets categorizing arms. To demonstrate the usefulness, this article first presents summary statistics of the data set and then replicates an earlier test to show that the effect of human rights and regime types on United States transfers differs across the categories of arms compared to alternative measures of arms transfers.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 272-297
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033894
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033894
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Liuchun Deng
Author-X-Name-First: Liuchun
Author-X-Name-Last: Deng
Author-Name: Yufeng Sun
Author-X-Name-First: Yufeng
Author-X-Name-Last: Sun
Title: The effects of local elections on national military spending: A cross-country study
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we study the domestic political determinants of military spending. Our conceptual framework suggests that power distribution over local and central governments influences the government provision of national public goods, in our context, military expenditure. Drawing on a large cross-country panel, we demonstrate that having local elections will decrease a country’s military expenditure markedly, controlling for other political and economic variables. According to our preferred estimates, a country’s military expenditure is on average 20% lower if its state government officials are locally elected, which is consistent with our theoretical prediction.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 298-318
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1061154
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1061154
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:3:p:298-318




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Martí Sempere
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Martí Sempere
Title: A survey of performance issues in defence innovation
Abstract: 
 This article reviews innovation processes in defence. It analyses the way and the context under which these processes are carried out. The article covers the features of defence goods with impact on innovation, the development of a new good, the institutional arrangements that support these processes and the effect of innovation on industrial market. The analysis helps to identify the causes of facts observed in practice, such as poor performance in terms of product quality, cost or delivery time, as well as to assess potential remedies. Some policy implications, which can be derived from this analysis, are finally outlined.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 319-343
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1072377
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1072377
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:3:p:319-343




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raymond Franck
Author-X-Name-First: Raymond
Author-X-Name-Last: Franck
Author-Name: Bernard Udis
Author-X-Name-First: Bernard
Author-X-Name-Last: Udis
Title: Quarrelsome committees in US defense acquisition: the KC-X case
Abstract: 
 When the US Air Force set out to acquire a new aerial tanker (the KC-X), two highly suitable alternatives were offered. What could have been a short and simple source selection turned into a prolonged embarrassment. The original selection of 100 leased KC-767s was made in May 2003. But the KC-46 is expected to be operational in 2017 – more than a decade later. Our primary purpose here is to narrate and explain key events in the KC-X program. We search for useful paradigms, based in part on the US Government being better viewed as a quarrelsome committee than a monopsonist. In addition, we consider what this case might tell us about the US defense acquisition system.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 344-366
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1073488
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1073488
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:3:p:344-366




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eyal Pecht
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal
Author-X-Name-Last: Pecht
Author-Name: Asher Tishler
Author-X-Name-First: Asher
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler
Title: Budget allocation, national security, military intelligence, and human capital: a dynamic model
Abstract: 
 This study develops a dynamic model that integrates military intelligence into the defense capability of the country and the optimal allocation of its government budget. We assert that the effectiveness of the country’s military intelligence is contingent on the quality of its human capital, which, in turn, implies a long-term positive relationship between the government’s various civilian expenditures and its capacity to achieve a cost-effective intelligence and, hence, military capability. This relationship is developed within a multiple-period arms race model between two rivals. Using this model and stylized data for the Israeli–Syrian arms race, we show that an appropriate budget shift from defense to civilian expenditures during the initial periods of the planning horizon will gradually (over a decade, say) increase the quality of human capital in the country and, thus, the effectiveness of its intelligence, which, in turn, will increase the country’s future security and welfare.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 367-399
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 5
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1101885
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1101885
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:3:p:367-399




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen Ciccone
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen
Author-X-Name-Last: Ciccone
Author-Name: Fred R. Kaen
Author-X-Name-First: Fred R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kaen
Title: The financial performance of aircraft manufacturers during world war II: the vicissitudes of war
Abstract: 
 Controversy has long surrounded the role and profitability of US defense contractors. From a financial perspective the question becomes whether defense contractors earn greater profits and investor returns than other companies during military conflicts. We explore this question by examining the accounting profitability and investor returns of US aircraft manufacturers before, during, and after World War II and compare them to a sample of non-defense firms. We also examine the reactions of aircraft stock prices to important political and military events of the time. We find that (1) aircraft stocks exhibited positive abnormal returns around events associated with defense buildups and outbreaks of hostile action and negative returns around events signaling an end to hostilities, (2) the company’s accounting returns improved during the war but these higher accounting returns did not translate into higher stock returns for the shareholders, and (3) investors could have earned higher stock returns had they switched out of aircraft stocks after Pearl Harbor and reinvested the proceeds in the overall market.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 743-773
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.922784
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.922784
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fernando M. M. Ruiz
Author-X-Name-First: Fernando M. M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ruiz
Author-Name: Florent Hainaut
Author-X-Name-First: Florent
Author-X-Name-Last: Hainaut
Author-Name: Nathalie Schiffino
Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie
Author-X-Name-Last: Schiffino
Title: The lobbies’ network at the EU policy level: the case of security and defense
Abstract: 
 Lobbyists may not share the same interests, but they usually agree to form a link in a network which could eventually be used to spread information, to search for potential partners, to speak with one voice to decision makers. In other words, social links represent value for lobbyists because they may ultimately facilitate access. In this article, we explore the network of the Security and Defense lobbies in the EU and we describe its structure.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 774-793
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1072376
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1072376
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:774-793




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrew P. Billyard
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Billyard
Author-Name: John J. Donohue
Author-X-Name-First: John J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Donohue
Title: A practical organizational efficiency measure
Abstract: 
 There is often a call in any organization to make the system ‘more efficient’. This document describes a novel framework for measuring organizational efficiency at the microeconomic level. We show how this framework can be used to monitor an organization using data typically available in extant performance management frameworks. This is most useful in large organizations with eclectic outputs where resources may be too constrained to perform industry-level analyses, such as data envelope analysis, to infer efficiency. This method helps illuminate how the factors of an organization’s internal practices can affect its efficient use of resources.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 794-819
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.987902
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.987902
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:794-819




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chaoqing Yuan
Author-X-Name-First: Chaoqing
Author-X-Name-Last: Yuan
Author-Name: Sifeng Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Sifeng
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Author-Name: Yingjie Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Yingjie
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Author-Name: Yu Shen
Author-X-Name-First: Yu
Author-X-Name-Last: Shen
Title: On the contribution of defense innovation to China’s economic growth
Abstract: 
 As the most knowledge-intensive industrial sectors, China’s defense industries are developing very fast. The present paper will explore the contribution of China’s defense innovation to its economic growth. Cobb–Douglas production function, integrating defense and non-defense stock in knowledge, is applied during the course. In addition, an input–output analysis of defense equipment procurement was done. Positive effect of China’s defense innovation on economic growth has been revealed by comparing the results from the two methods. And some suggestions are made to strengthen the effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 820-837
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.901644
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.901644
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rafael González-Val
Author-X-Name-First: Rafael
Author-X-Name-Last: González-Val
Title: War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts
Abstract: 
 This paper analyses the statistical distribution of war sizes. Using a new methodology we find moderate support for a Pareto-type distribution (power law), considering data from different sources (COW and UCDP) and periods. A power law is a plausible model for the size distribution of a pool of all wars and a sample of wars in many years, although the log-normal distribution is a plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. The random growth of conflicts could generate both types of distribution. We study the growth rates of battle deaths and random growth cannot be rejected for most of the distribution, although the results also reveal a clear decreasing pattern; the growth of deaths declines faster if the number of initial deaths is greater.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 838-853
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1025486
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1025486
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:838-853




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Augusto Voltes-Dorta
Author-X-Name-First: Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Voltes-Dorta
Author-Name: Juan Luis Jiménez
Author-X-Name-First: Juan Luis
Author-X-Name-Last: Jiménez
Author-Name: Ancor Suárez-Alemán
Author-X-Name-First: Ancor
Author-X-Name-Last: Suárez-Alemán
Title: The Impact of ETA’s Dissolution on Domestic Tourism in Spain
Abstract: 
 In late 2011, the Spanish terrorist organization ETA announced the end of armed violence after more than forty years of illegal activity. While the existing literature has already established the negative impact of terrorist actions on international tourism in a particular region, this paper aims to determine whether ETA’s final ceasefire and definitive dissolution had a positive impact on domestic tourism in Basque Country. To that end, a directed gravity model is estimated over a panel data-set of 699 domestic tourist flows between the Spanish regions from 2008 to 2013. Results suggest that the negative impact on visitor flows was localized in the Basque Country. Also, regardless of a permanent ceasefire announced in 2010, only the 2011 ‘definitive cessation of violence’ had an immediate significant impact on the number of visitors to the Basque Country. These results complement the scarce literature on post-conflict tourism analysis and may have implications for regional authorities in affected regions in their efforts to rebuild their destination brands.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 854-870
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1025485
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1025485
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:854-870




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yemane Wolde-Rufael
Author-X-Name-First: Yemane
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde-Rufael
Title: Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan
Abstract: 
 The rising trend in income inequality has recently attracted a renewed interest in the determinants of this growing trend across many countries. This article adds to the debate by investigating the impact of defence expenditure as a possible determinant of inequality in Taiwan, a country once was considered to be a poster child of an equitable growth, but now income inequality has become one of the Taiwan’s growing challenges. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration and four long-run estimators for the period from 1976–2011, we found a long-run relationship between the various measures of inequality and defence expenditure where defence expenditure exerts a positive and a statistically significant impact on the worse income inequality in Taiwan. Further application of the lag-augmented causality test procedure also reveals a unidirectional causality running from defence expenditure to income inequality with defence expenditure causing income inequality to rise.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 871-884
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.886436
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2014.886436
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:871-884




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Erratum
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: (i)-(i)
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1005984
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1005984
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:(i)-(i)




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial Board
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: (ii)-(ii)
Issue: 6
Volume: 27
Year: 2016
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1234841
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1234841
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:6:p:(ii)-(ii)




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jomana H. Amara
Author-X-Name-First: Jomana H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Amara
Title: Military and Veterans’ Health, Health Care, and Wellbeing
Abstract: 
 The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) need to bridge a gap in their understanding of service members’ health outcomes and the issues involved in treatment, such as cost. In addition, clinicians and policy analysts must overcome existing knowledge barriers. Clinicians need to be aware of policy changes that will affect their patient load in numbers and in treatment needs. Policy analysts need to be aware of issues relevant to clinical treatment, such as quality and timeliness of care. Given the need for services and support to military personnel and families, and the fact that the fastest growing expenses in defense are health care costs, a multi-disciplinary line of research will help lawmakers understand the most efficient and effective resource use across the health care services.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-5
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1403739
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1403739
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sarah K. Burns
Author-X-Name-First: Sarah K.
Author-X-Name-Last: Burns
Author-Name: Philip M. Lurie
Author-X-Name-First: Philip M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lurie
Author-Name: John E. Whitley
Author-X-Name-First: John E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Whitley
Title: Analysis of an Alternative Military Healthcare Benefit Design
Abstract: 
 The Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission was established by the Congress in 2013 to perform a systematic review of military compensation to address rising costs and other trends. Their recommendation for reforming the TRICARE health care program was sweeping, and differed greatly from earlier proposals that focused on increasing beneficiary cost shares. Specifically, the commission proposed overhauling the current benefit delivery model and replacing it with a premium-based insurance model offering a menu of DoD-sponsored private health plans. The analysis presented here is based on work that supported the commission by estimating the budgetary impact of its proposed reforms. Results indicate that movement towards the premium-based model would produce an annual budgetary cost savings in the $2 billion to $4 billion range, with a best savings estimate of $3.2 billion.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 6-23
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1349302
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1349302
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Projesh P. Ghosh
Author-X-Name-First: Projesh P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh
Author-Name: Sebastian Negrusa
Author-X-Name-First: Sebastian
Author-X-Name-Last: Negrusa
Author-Name: John T. Warner
Author-X-Name-First: John T.
Author-X-Name-Last: Warner
Title: Health Insurance, Health Conditions, and Veteran Health Care Utilization
Abstract: 
 The utilization of health care services by veterans has received much attention in recent years. However, the impact of the large array of factors affecting the veterans’ demand for health care services remains understudied. These factors include individual socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the availability of various sources of health insurance, and the prevalence of medical conditions. We use public data to analyze how veterans’ utilization of health care services varies with these factors. We also analyze how the reliance on VA services varies when alternative sources of health insurance are available to veterans. Based on the estimated relationships, we use a micro-simulation model to forecast future health care utilization, both inside and outside of VA.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 24-43
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1349311
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1349311
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Matthew S. Goldberg
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Goldberg
Title: Casualty Rates of US Military Personnel During the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
Abstract: 
 In Operation Iraqi Freedom, which ended in August 2010, nearly 3500 hostile deaths occurred among US military personnel and 32,000 more were wounded in action (WIA). More than 1800 hostile deaths occurred during Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan) through 2014 and about 20,000 were WIA. A larger proportion of wounded personnel survived in Iraq and Afghanistan than during the Vietnam War, but the increased survival rates were not as high as some studies have asserted. The survival rates were 90.2% in Iraq and 91.6% in Afghanistan, compared with 86.5% in Vietnam. The casualty rates varied between the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and before, during, and after the respective surges. Amputation rates are difficult to measure consistently, but I estimate that 2.6% of all WIA and 9.0% of medically evacuated WIA from the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters combined resulted in the major loss of a limb. Elevated non-hostile death rates (including deaths due to accidents, illnesses, homicides, or suicides) resulted in about 220 more deaths in Iraq and about 200 more deaths in Afghanistan than would have been expected in peacetime among populations of the size deployed to those two conflicts.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 44-61
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1129816
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1129816
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jesse M. Cunha
Author-X-Name-First: Jesse M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Cunha
Author-Name: Yu-Chu Shen
Author-X-Name-First: Yu-Chu
Author-X-Name-Last: Shen
Author-Name: Zachary R. Burke
Author-X-Name-First: Zachary R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Burke
Title: Contrasting the Impacts of Combat and Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief Missions on the Mental Health of Military Service Members
Abstract: 
 We study the differential impacts of combat and humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) missions on the mental health of U.S. Marine Corps members. The deployment experiences of any individual Marine are plausibly random conditional on the observable characteristics which are used to assign Marines into units. Leveraging this exogenous variation, we compare the incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and suicide deaths among Marines who deployed to either Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OEF/OIF) or HA/DR missions between 2001 and 2011. We find that the hazard of PTSD is close to eight times higher among Marines returning from OEF/OIF compared to those never deployed, and just 1.33 times higher among those returning from HA/DR (and never participated in OEF/OIF). Those returning from OEF/OIF missions are 1.81 times more likely than those never deployed to die by suicide when they were still active duty, and the hazard increases to almost 3 after they have left the military. In contrast, we find no difference in the hazards of suicide death between those that deployed to only HA/DR missions and non-deployed Marines.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 62-77
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1349365
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1349365
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adam D. Bramoweth
Author-X-Name-First: Adam D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Bramoweth
Author-Name: James Luther
Author-X-Name-First: James
Author-X-Name-Last: Luther
Author-Name: Barbara H. Hanusa
Author-X-Name-First: Barbara H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanusa
Author-Name: Jon D. Walker
Author-X-Name-First: Jon D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Walker
Author-Name: Charles W. Atwood
Author-X-Name-First: Charles W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Atwood
Author-Name: Anne Germain
Author-X-Name-First: Anne
Author-X-Name-Last: Germain
Title: Clinical Characterization of Insomnia among Veterans with PTSD: Identifying Risk Factors for Diagnosis and Treatment with Sedative-Hypnotics
Abstract: 
 Insomnia is prevalent among Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), it exacerbates PTSD symptoms, and it contributes to impaired functioning and quality of life. To improve treatment outcomes, it is important to identify risk factors for insomnia and sedative-hypnotic use. Classification and regression trees and logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with insomnia or sedative-hypnotic use. Key findings include low insomnia diagnosis rates (3.5–5.6%) and high rates of sedative-hypnotics (44.2–49.0%). Younger Veterans and those without a breathing-related sleep disorder (BRSD) were more likely to receive an insomnia diagnosis. Veterans with greater service connection and those with an alcohol/substance use disorder were more likely to be prescribed sedative-hypnotics. Interaction terms may have identified potential groups at risk of being under-diagnosed with insomnia (i.e. non-black Veterans with psychiatric co-morbidity, black Veterans without psychiatric co-morbidity) as well as groups at risk for sedative-hypnotic use (i.e. younger Veterans without BRSD). In sum, Veterans with PTSD have high rates of sedative-hypnotic use despite minimal evidence they are effective. This is counter to recommendations indicating behavioral interventions are the first-line treatment. Policy changes are needed to reduce use of sedative-hypnotics and increase access to behavioral insomnia interventions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 78-90
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1349633
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1349633
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gilles Grandjean
Author-X-Name-First: Gilles
Author-X-Name-Last: Grandjean
Author-Name: Petros G. Sekeris
Author-X-Name-First: Petros G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sekeris
Title: The timing of contests
Abstract: 
 We develop a simple model to analyze the timing of contests. When the odds of winning a contest are exogenously given – we show that if either the players discount the future or if the total cost of contest is smaller in the future – there exist subgame perfect equilibria where both players settle, anticipating a contest in the future. With endogenous efforts, the aggregate efforts expanded in a contest are smaller if the contest occurs in the future when the relative effort productivities remain constant or diverge over time, thus creating scope for delay in contests. When the effort productivities converge over time, the total efforts may be greater under a future contest. As a consequence, players either settle over the two periods, or else they initiate a contest immediately.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 137-149
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1025498
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1025498
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter J. Phillips
Author-X-Name-First: Peter J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Phillips
Author-Name: Gabriela Pohl
Author-X-Name-First: Gabriela
Author-X-Name-Last: Pohl
Title: Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis
Abstract: 
 The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory (PT). We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database. Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. PT orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of ‘trigger points’ and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 150-164
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1033888
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James T. Bang
Author-X-Name-First: James T.
Author-X-Name-Last: Bang
Author-Name: Aniruddha Mitra
Author-X-Name-First: Aniruddha
Author-X-Name-Last: Mitra
Title: Institutions, information, and commitment: the role of democracy in conflict
Abstract: 
 This paper explores the hypothesis that both the preexisting quality of democracy in a polity at the onset of conflict and the quality of democracy expected to emerge in the aftermath influence the likelihood of civil war. An empirical investigation of the hypothesis presents a challenge due to concerns of endogeneity and selection: the post-conflict level of democracy is endogenous to the pre-conflict level. Further, for a given time period, either a number of countries have not experienced civil war; or if they did, did not resolve the conflict. We overcome this selection bias by implementing a three-step extension to the Heckman procedure using an unbalanced cross-country panel of 77 countries over the period 1971–2005. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that a standard deviation improvement in the existing level of democracy reduces the probability of civil war by approximately 9 percentage points and a corresponding improvement in expected post-conflict democratization increases the probability of conflict by approximately 48 percentage points.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 165-187
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1142745
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1142745
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Rashel  Hasan
Author-X-Name-First: M. Rashel
Author-X-Name-Last:  Hasan
Author-Name: Syed Mansoob Murshed
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mansoob
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed
Title: Does civil war hamper financial development?
Abstract: 
 We examine how armed conflict effects financial development in a cross-country setting using dynamic panel data analysis in a panel of 66 developing countries for the period 1985–2010. Financial development is measured by M2 as a share of GDP, and credit allocated to private sector by banks as a share of GDP. Our findings suggest that armed conflict has a significant adverse effect on financial development. Simultaneously, the quality of governance is always highly significant and conducive to the financial development. The quality of governance is more salient in determining financial development compared to low- and medium-intensity armed conflict; however, the quality of governance cannot entirely offset the adverse impact of high-intensity armed conflict on financial development.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 188-207
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1092205
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1092205
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Godwin Okafor
Author-X-Name-First: Godwin
Author-X-Name-Last: Okafor
Title: The impact of political instability on the economic growth of ECOWAS member countries
Abstract: 
 This study contributes to the literature on political instability and economic growth by specifically investigating the impact of political instability on the economic growth of member countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). West Africa is regarded as the riskiest sub-region within the African continent. To achieve this objective, this study employed panel data techniques (fixed effects and generalised method of moments) on a sample of 15 ECOWAS member countries for the period 2005–2012. The findings from the analyses showed that terrorism, poor governance, social unrest, youth unemployment, death rate and natural resource rent have negative relationships with economic growth. The findings and policy implications deduced from this study could not have been any timelier considering the recent escalation of instability in West African countries and their fragile growth prospects.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 208-229
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1092206
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1092206
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emizet F. Kisangani
Author-X-Name-First: Emizet F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kisangani
Author-Name: Jeffrey Pickering
Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey
Author-X-Name-Last: Pickering
Title: The human consequences of foreign military intervention
Abstract: 
 The empirical international conflict literature has given much recent attention to interstate armed force’s impact on human well-being. While empirical research has advanced our understanding of the phenomenon considerably, we argue that one conclusion that many studies have reached is preliminary. Some recent research contends that only full-scale war, and not force short of war, has a discernable impact on human welfare or physical quality of life (PQOL). We develop theory on one type of force short of war, large-scale foreign military intervention (FMI), and its potential effects on PQOL. Using interrupted time series and panel corrected standard error methodologies, we find that from 1960 to 2005 large-scale FMI had a statistically and substantively significant impact on the PQOL of populations in 106 developing countries. The specific effect that this type of armed force has depended in large part on the regime type of the target country.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 230-249
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1096532
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1096532
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raul Caruso
Author-X-Name-First: Raul
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso
Author-Name: Prabin Khadka
Author-X-Name-First: Prabin
Author-X-Name-Last: Khadka
Author-Name: Ilaria Petrarca
Author-X-Name-First: Ilaria
Author-X-Name-Last: Petrarca
Author-Name: Roberto Ricciuti
Author-X-Name-First: Roberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Ricciuti
Title: The economic impact of peacekeeping. Evidence from South Sudan
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the effect of the deployment of United Nations Blue Helmets on economic activity in South Sudan with a special focus on agricultural production. Since UN troops are predicted to improve security, in particular, we expect a positive relationship between deployment of UN blue Helmets and cereal production. We test our hypothesis using an original data-set including all the 78 South Sudanese counties over the period 2009–2011. We control for the non-random assignment of UN troops through an Instrumental Variables approach. Our empirical results show that a 10% increase in the size of the troop allows the production of additional 600 tonnes.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 250-270
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1122282
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1122282
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:2:p:250-270




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bilin Neyapti
Author-X-Name-First: Bilin
Author-X-Name-Last: Neyapti
Title: Educate or Adjudicate? Socioeconomic Heterogeneity and Welfare
Abstract: 
 I present a formal framework to explore the welfare and distributional effects of a government’s optimal choice over two types of public spending in a closed economy: domestic security (DS) and investment in social capital (SC). Production is characterized as a function of social and physical capital stocks that both vary across the regions. DS stands for total factor productivity, while SC stands for human capital and civic cooperativeness combined. SC accumulates via public spending on universal primary education, cultural, and civic events and such, and is exposed to regional spillover effects. Numerical simulations of the static solution of the government’s welfare maximization problem reveal that the optimal rate of spending on SC (m*) is negatively related with the income share of physical capital, SC spillovers and fiscal decentralization. Simulations also show that SC homogeneity is positively associated with both the level and equitability of aggregate income. The maximum attainable levels of income, welfare and social cohesion and the most equitable incomes are all observed to realize at some intermediate range of m* values. In case DS augments SC, however, social cohesion improves and welfare declines monotonously in m*.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 491-510
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1247775
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1247775
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elda Pema
Author-X-Name-First: Elda
Author-X-Name-Last: Pema
Author-Name: Stephen Mehay
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehay
Author-Name: Simona Tick
Author-X-Name-First: Simona
Author-X-Name-Last: Tick
Title: Noncognitive skills and job match: evidence from military applicants
Abstract: 
 The study examines the effect of noncognitive skills on early career choices among young job seekers. Specifically, we analyze the influence of personality traits on the decision by military applicants either to choose the military or a civilian career option. We use a unique micro-level data-set of applicants to the US Navy and exploit the fact that many individuals who initially apply for military jobs eventually choose civilian careers instead. In this institutional setting, job candidates use new information to update their beliefs about the military job match. Personality traits are viewed as productive abilities that influence applicants’ expectations about the economic return to the job and occupational training offered by the Navy. The study finds that many of the 15 lower order personality facets associated with the Big Five traits are predictive of applicants’ job choices and provides suggestive evidence of a link between personality traits, job match expectations, and career choice.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 511-533
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1234203
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1234203
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raul Caruso
Author-X-Name-First: Raul
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso
Author-Name: Marco Di Domizio
Author-X-Name-First: Marco
Author-X-Name-Last: Di Domizio
Title: Military spending and budget deficits: the impact of US military spending on public debt in Europe (1988–2013)
Abstract: 
 The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between military spending and sovereign debt in a panel of 13 European countries. In particular, under the assumption of the interdependence of military spending between US and European countries, we analyse whether US military spending affected European sovereign debt in the period 1988–2013. The empirical estimation is based on different steps: (i) a unit root test; (ii) an Arellano–Bond panel estimation and a linear fixed effect model; and (iii) a FMOLS estimation to highlight the long run relationship between debt and relevant variables. General results highlight that debt burden of European countries is: (1) positively associated with US military burden and (2) negatively associated with average military burden of other European countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 534-549
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1228259
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1228259
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:5:p:534-549




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Azam
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Azam
Author-Name: Yi Feng
Author-X-Name-First: Yi
Author-X-Name-Last: Feng
Title: Does military expenditure increase external debt? Evidence from Asia
Abstract: 
 This article empirically explores the effect of military spending on external debt, using a sample of ten Asian countries over the years from 1990 to 2011. The Hausman’s test suggests that the random-effects model is preferable; however, both random-effects and fixed-effects models are used in this research. The empirical results show that the effect of military spending on external debt is positive, while the effects of foreign exchange reserves and of economic growth on external debt are negative. For developing countries caught in security dilemma, military expenditure often requires an increase in external debt, which may affect economic development negatively.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 550-567
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1072371
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1072371
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tsai-Yuan Huang
Author-X-Name-First: Tsai-Yuan
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang
Author-Name: Po-Chin Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Po-Chin
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Shiao-Yen Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Shiao-Yen
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Title: Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects
Abstract: 
 This paper develops a panel smooth transition vector autoregressive model to investigate the economic growth–defense causality. This model simultaneously resolves the estimation problems of endogeneity, heterogeneity, and nonlinearity. Empirical results support that the causality is bidirectional, nonlinear, time- and country-varying. Economic growth has a negative impact on military spending and vice versa. The larger the HDI, the smaller the negative causality. Evidently, the increase in the level of country development can reduce the negative impact of military outlays on economic growth. Reducing the ratio of military spending to GDP is beneficial for countries with low HDI scores; however, moderately increasing the share of military expenditure is favorable for countries with extremely high HDI scores. Policy authority needs to set optimal education, health, and economic development shares of GDP for purchasing a maximum economic growth rate.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 568-584
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1202002
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1202002
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yi-Hua Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Yi-Hua
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Chih-Chin Ho
Author-X-Name-First: Chih-Chin
Author-X-Name-Last: Ho
Author-Name: Eric S. Lin
Author-X-Name-First: Eric S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin
Title: Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?
Abstract: 
 Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 585-608
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1228260
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1228260
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:5:p:585-608




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ming Zhong
Author-X-Name-First: Ming
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhong
Author-Name: Tsangyao Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Tsangyao
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Author-Name: Samrat Goswami
Author-X-Name-First: Samrat
Author-X-Name-Last: Goswami
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta
Author-Name: Tien-Wei Lou
Author-X-Name-First: Tien-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Lou
Title: The nexus between military expenditures and economic growth in the BRICS and the US: an empirical note
Abstract: 
 This empirical note re-examines the causal linkages between military expenditures and economic growth for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and that for the USA during the period 1988–2012. Results of Granger causality tests show that military expenditures influence economic growth in the USA, economic growth influences military expenditures in both Brazil and India, a feedback between military expenditures and economic growth in Russia, and no causal relation exists between military expenditures and economic growth in China and South Africa. The findings of this study can provide important policy implications for the BRICS countries and also for the USA.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 609-620
Issue: 5
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1144897
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1144897
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:5:p:609-620




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Roberto Ezcurra
Author-X-Name-First: Roberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Ezcurra
Title: Interregional Inequality and Civil Conflict: Are Spatial Disparities a Threat to Stability and Peace?
Abstract: 
 This article examines the link between interregional inequality and civil conflict in a panel of 125 countries over the period 1993–2013. The results show that the level of interregional inequality has a positive and statistically significant effect on the incidence of civil conflict, which implies that countries with higher regional income disparities are more likely to experience internal violence. This result is not driven by a specific group of influential countries and is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of a substantial set of covariates that may affect both interregional inequality and civil conflict. Likewise, the observed link between regional income disparities and internal violence does not depend either on the estimation strategy or the measures used to quantify the degree of interregional inequality and the incidence of civil conflict within the various countries. These results suggest that policies designed to decrease the magnitude of regional income disparities may contribute to reducing the incidence of civil conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 759-782
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1446621
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1446621
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:759-782




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tomoya Suzuki
Author-X-Name-First: Tomoya
Author-X-Name-Last: Suzuki
Title: Civil War, Migration and the Effect on Business Cycles: The Case of Sri Lanka
Abstract: 
 We estimated a stochastic growth model for Sri Lanka over the 1962–2015 period and found that permanent productivity shocks constituted the largest proportion of the variance in output growth. We computed correlation coefficients between permanent productivity shocks and some variables and found a negative correlation between the shocks and the growth in migration outflows. The findings are consistent with the negative effect of civil war on economic growth from an exodus of skilled workers. We further investigated the factors that drive migration from Sri Lanka to a major migration destination, namely Australia, for educated and skilled Sri Lankans. We regressed the growth rate of the Sri Lankan-born population in Australia on a civil war dummy variable, per worker Australian gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for the restrictiveness of Australian immigration policy and an estimated labour wedge that represents labour market inefficiency in Sri Lanka. We found that Sri Lankan immigrants in Australia increased with per worker GDP in Australia, civil war and labour market inefficiency in Sri Lanka. The finding suggests that excessive protection of insiders in the Sri Lankan labour market should be abolished to mitigate migration outflows that have continued since the end of the civil war.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 783-798
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1428786
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1428786
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:783-798




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Topher L. McDougal
Author-X-Name-First: Topher L.
Author-X-Name-Last: McDougal
Author-Name: Athena Kolbe
Author-X-Name-First: Athena
Author-X-Name-Last: Kolbe
Author-Name: Robert Muggah
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Muggah
Author-Name: Nicholas Marsh
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas
Author-X-Name-Last: Marsh
Title: Ammunition leakage from military to civilian markets: market price evidence from Haiti, 2004–2012
Abstract: 
 The increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor of destabilization in many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally transferred via diversion from existing stores. In this article, we consider the leakage from military to civilian markets as an important source of ammunition available to civilians in Haiti. We employ a unique section-quarterly panel of ammunition prices on the Haitian civilian market over the period July 2004–July 2012. These data are combined with publicly available monthly data on authorized ammunition shipments to the country registered by the United Nations (UN) and Haitian National Police (HNP). We use a standard time-series Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model to show that the exogenous shocks of UN- and HNP-ordered ammunition exert measurable downward pressure on civilian ammunition markets, which we calculate in terms of adjusted predictions and partial elasticities of demand. These effects constitute econometric evidence that the firewall that should in theory have separated military and civilian markets in Haiti partially broke down. We conclude with a suggestion for using this model to help estimate the specific size of the leakage.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 799-812
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1492226
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1492226
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:799-812




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Bäckström
Author-X-Name-First: Peter
Author-X-Name-Last: Bäckström
Title: Are Economic Upturns Bad for Military Recruitment? A Study on Swedish Regional Data 2011–2015
Abstract: 
 This paper represents the first effort to explore the relationship between civilian labour market conditions and the supply of labour to the military in the all-volunteer environment that Sweden entered after the abolishment of the peacetime draft in 2010. The paper investigates the effect of civilian unemployment on the rate of applications from individuals aged 18–25 to initiate basic military training, using panel data on Swedish counties for the period 2011–2015. A linear fixed-effects model is estimated to investigate the relationship, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic covariates, unobserved heterogeneity on the regional level, as well as aggregate trends on the national level. The results of the panel-data analysis indicate that the unemployment rate has a positive and statistically significant effect on the application rate. These results are robust to non-linear form specifications, as well as allowing the civilian unemployment rate to be endogenous. As such, the results suggest that the civilian labour market environment in Sweden can give rise to non-trivial fluctuations in the supply of applications to initiate basic military training within the Swedish Armed Forces.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 813-829
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1522572
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1522572
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:813-829




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yi Pan
Author-X-Name-First: Yi
Author-X-Name-Last: Pan
Author-Name: Yonghong Zhou
Author-X-Name-First: Yonghong
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou
Title: War Memory: Evidence from Assistance during Great East Japan Earthquake
Abstract: 
 On the basis of a natural experiment related to the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the present work empirically analyzes the relationship between historical events and current attitude and determines whether regions that suffered severely during the Japanese invasion in World War II expressed small concern during the earthquake. After controlling for geographical distance, bilateral trade, and political characteristics, a negative relationship is found between the duration of invasion and number of related deaths in the invaded regions and their governments’ efforts in assisting Japan after the earthquake. Further analysis shows that political similarity to Japan helped in assisting them after the earthquake, but this effect was reduced for regions that sustained many deaths during the Japanese invasion. In addition, a mediation effect test shows that the help extended by Japan to several countries after the war through the Japanese official development assistance did not positively influence the amount of aid provided by such regions to Japan after the earthquake. These studies provide new evidence of the long-lasting influence of war. However, no robust evidence is found about the relationship between death rate and war memory. Therefore, even large countries cannot tolerate serious suffering during painful historical events.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 830-845
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1443644
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1443644
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:830-845




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raaj Kishore Biswas
Author-X-Name-First: Raaj Kishore
Author-X-Name-Last: Biswas
Author-Name: Enamul Kabir
Author-X-Name-First: Enamul
Author-X-Name-Last: Kabir
Author-Name: Refat Bin Reza Rafi
Author-X-Name-First: Refat Bin Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Rafi
Title: Investment in Research and Development Compared to Military Expenditure: Is Research Worthwhile?
Abstract: 
 Both research and development (R&D) and military expenditure are pivotal areas for any country’s economy. However, most countries tend to spend more on military because of global insecurity and power politics. Nevertheless, this study shows the merit of R&D investment and how it contributes to the national human capital. An analysis was undertaken on the gap between R&D and military expenditure considering the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 76 countries for a period of 15 years (2000–2014). Mixed effect models were applied to adjust the effect of six different continents. The results showed that HDI has a positive bi-directional significant relationship with higher R&D investment. National spending on R&D builds human capital, which in turn contributes to public development over the years, unlike military expenditure that only marginally contributes towards GDP and makes no contribution to HDI.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 846-857
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1477235
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1477235
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:846-857




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jianhao Guo
Author-X-Name-First: Jianhao
Author-X-Name-Last: Guo
Author-Name: Chunkai Zhao
Author-X-Name-First: Chunkai
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao
Title: Impacting Factors of the Chinese Military Enterprises’ Capital Structure and Approaches of Importing Private Capital
Abstract: 
 This paper analyzes the impacting factors of the capital structure of military listed companies in China, based on the 2001–2015 panel data of 104 Chinese listed companies, and we explore practical approaches for Chinese private capital entering the military enterprises, given the strategy of the civil–military integration. We show that: (1) state-owned shares and domestic legal person shares negatively impact the capital structure of military enterprises and mainly show in non-current liability. While the foreign legal person shares and the shareholding ratio of executives and managers have no significant impact. (2) As for the financial indicators, coefficients of firm size, asset tangibility, and growth are positive, while those of profitability, non-debt tax shield, and growth opportunity are negative. (3) Given the civil–military integration strategy, equity financing imposes a negative impact on the capital structure of military enterprises. The negative impact increases, with the increase in military enterprises’ profitability, business risk, and growth opportunities, and with the decrease in military enterprises’ growth and firm size. (4) The negative impacts of equity financing are significant, if debt ratios of the military enterprises are too small or too large. While the state-owned shares only have significant negative impact on military enterprises whose debt ratios are too small. As a conclusion, we suggest private capital to prioritize the corporate bonds or short-term borrowing to enter the military industry, and choose smaller or medium-sized military enterprises with more growth opportunities and lower business risks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 858-876
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1402245
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1402245
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:858-876




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kai-Hua Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Kai-Hua
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name: Chi-Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Author-Name: Hsu-Ling Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Hsu-Ling
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Title: Does the Efficient Market Hypothesis Fit Military Enterprises in China?
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) fits the Chinese military market using the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM) and the Panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function. We obtain evidence for structural shifts and non-linearity in the stock prices of the military industry in the Chinese stock market. Because sharp shifts and structural breaks are taken into account, the unit root hypothesis for most listed companies is rejected. Our result suggests that the Chinese military market is inefficient because of such factors as defense reforms, friction in the stock market, and irrational investors. We provide investment implications to enable future stock price movements to be predicted based on past behavior and enable trading strategies to be developed to earn abnormal returns. Meanwhile, Chinese defense enterprises should continue to implement industrial reforms, change their bureaucratic culture, and develop a market-oriented workforce.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 877-889
Issue: 7
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1425118
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1425118
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:7:p:877-889




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman
Author-X-Name-First: Sam
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman
Title: Introduction
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 401-403
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1333235
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1333235
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:401-403




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sam Perlo-Freeman
Author-X-Name-First: Sam
Author-X-Name-Last: Perlo-Freeman
Title: SIPRI’s New Long Data-set on Military Expenditure: The Successes and Methodological Pitfalls
Abstract: 
 SIPRI has collected data on military expenditure almost since its foundation in the 1960s, but various historical difficulties led to breaks in the consistency of the data series, so that until recently SIPRI’s consistent military expenditure database has only provided data from 1988 onwards. This paper describes recent efforts at SIPRI that have succeeded in extending these consistent series for most countries back to at least the 1960s, and in some cases to 1949. It describes the underlying difficulties involved in collecting military expenditure data and ensuring consistent series, the sources used in the reconstruction of the long data-set, the methodological choices made, and the results of the exercise. Overall, consistent constant price data series have been extended back as far as 1957 for half of the countries covered by the SIPRI database that existed at the time. Europe and the Americas generally have the best data coverage. One of the biggest problems with the extended data-set is the extensive use of estimates to splice together overlapping, but disagreeing series for the same country, adjusting the older series upwards or downwards by an appropriate ratio to give greater consistency with the later series. A number of case studies are investigated where parallel series exist for countries, suggesting that this approach may in some cases involve significant margins for error.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 404-421
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1279782
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1279782
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:404-421




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ron P. Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Ron P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Military Expenditure Data: Theoretical and Empirical Considerations
Abstract: 
 This paper discusses some of the methodological issues involved in analysing military expenditure data, with particular reference to the extended SIPRI data-set. The discussion is organised under the headings of validity, what is the appropriate concept to measure? reliability, how well is it being measured? and comparability, is the same thing being measured over time and space? The paper then considers some of the econometric issues involved in the use of such data.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 422-428
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1245823
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245823
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:422-428




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio d’Agostino
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: d’Agostino
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni
Author-X-Name-First: Luca
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni
Title: Does Military Spending Matter for Long-run Growth?
Abstract: 
 The effects of military spending has on the economy continues to be a subject of considerable debate, with a lack of consensus in the literature. This paper takes advantage of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute extended data-set to contribute to the debate using empirical methods made available, or more applicable, by the extra observations. It constructs a large panel of countries for the period 1970–2014 to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between military spending and economic growth, applies the more flexible pooled mean group estimator, and compares the results with the more restrictive dynamic fixed effect method used in earlier influential studies. It also compares results from different time and country samples. Across the specifications it finds a significant and persistent negative effect of military burden on economic growth that is robust across different country groups, with the largest impact being for OECD countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 429-436
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1324723
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1324723
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:429-436




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elisa Cavatorta
Author-X-Name-First: Elisa
Author-X-Name-Last: Cavatorta
Author-Name: Ron P. Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Ron P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Factor Models in Panels with Cross-sectional Dependence: An Application to the Extended SIPRI Military Expenditure Data
Abstract: 
 Strategic interactions between countries, such as arms races, alliances and wider economic and political shocks, can induce strong cross-sectional dependence in panel data models of military expenditure. If the assumption of cross-sectional independence fails, standard panel estimators such as fixed or random effects can lead to misleading inference. This paper shows how to improve estimation of dynamic, heterogenous, panel models of the demand for military expenditure allowing for cross-sectional dependence in errors using two approaches: Principal Components and Common Correlated Effect estimators. Our results show that it is crucial to allow for cross-sectional dependence, that the bulk of the effect is regional and there are large gains in fit by allowing for both dynamics and between country heterogeneity in models of the demand for military expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 437-456
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1261428
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1261428
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:437-456




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oliver Pamp
Author-X-Name-First: Oliver
Author-X-Name-Last: Pamp
Author-Name: Paul W. Thurner
Author-X-Name-First: Paul W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Thurner
Title: Trading Arms and the Demand for Military Expenditures: Empirical Explorations Using New SIPRI-Data
Abstract: 
 This paper analyzes the impact of arms imports and exports on national military expenditures. The recent literature on the determinants of military expenditures has mainly focused on countries’ external security environments and their regime type. Based on existing theoretical work, we argue that, in addition to these factors, arms trade flows may have an important role to play. First, we show that rising imports of major conventional weapons do not necessarily translate into higher defense spending. Rather, this relationship depends on political, economic, and contract conditions that influence different choices of financing imports. Therefore, the effect should be very heterogenous. Second, exports may have both a negative or a positive impact depending on regime type and the perceived impact of exports on national security. We empirically test these expectations for 156 countries from 1949 to 2013 using arms trade and new military expenditure data provided by SIPRI. Employing static and dynamic panel data models, we find that the effect of arms imports on defense budgets does indeed differ between regions and time periods. With respect to exports, there is evidence of a strategic substitution effect between military expenditures and arms exports in democratic countries: increases in arms exports are followed by a reduction in military expenditures. For non-democratic societies on the other hand, arms exports do not tend to be associated with lower military spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 457-472
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1277452
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1277452
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:457-472




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski
Author-Name: Satish Chand
Author-X-Name-First: Satish
Author-X-Name-Last: Chand
Author-Name: Robert Wylie
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Wylie
Title: Economic Growth and Demand for Military Expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Asia Region
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we use new data on military expenditure (milex) compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to investigate the relationship between military spending and economic growth. We focus on selected countries in Indo-Pacific Asia – an economically diverse but increasingly prosperous region with pockets of strategic competition and growing milex. We confirm the robustness of SIPRI’s milex data by corroborating it with defence budget data published by Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation (ADIO). We find no conclusive evidence of an arms race in the region. It is the growing economic prosperity that accounts for most of the growth in Indo-Pacific Asia’s milex. But we also find wide variations in the economic burden imposed by milex at the national level and that milex’ high level of aggregation masks important changes in national military capabilities. We argue that such capabilities can increase despite a constant or even declining milex burden and, hence, prejudice the peaceful resolution of international conflicts and, thus, undermine the fragile regional stability. We propose limited disaggregation of milex to highlight national spending on military force structure and preparedness so as to facilitate better understanding of military capability formation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 473-490
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1274059
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1274059
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:4:p:473-490




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ethan Spangler
Author-X-Name-First: Ethan
Author-X-Name-Last: Spangler
Title: Allies with Benefits: US Effect on European Demand for Military Expenditures
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the security relationship between the US and Europe, focusing on potential spillin effects of US military expenditures on European demand for military expenditures during the early twenty-first century. The goal is to test whether or not European states view US expenditures as a complement or as a substitute to their own military expenditures. Past work in this area has found mixed results concerning the effect of US military expenditures, but focus strictly on the spillins within a formal alliance, specifically NATO, and use a time series dominated by Cold War dynamics. This study differentiates itself by accounting for both US total military expenditures and its regional expenditures through incorporation of US military base and personnel deployments across Europe. Additionally, this paper uses government revenue in its estimation to mitigate potential endogeneity. Findings using Arellano&#x2013;Bond dynamic panel analysis suggest that there is a strong probability of substitution among European states.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 731-747
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1310365
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1310365
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:731-747




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tim Haesebrouck
Author-X-Name-First: Tim
Author-X-Name-Last: Haesebrouck
Author-Name: Alrik Thiem
Author-X-Name-First: Alrik
Author-X-Name-Last: Thiem
Title: Burden Sharing in CSDP Military Operations
Abstract: 
 Military burden sharing has been a subject of repeated debates in NATO and the UN. Despite more modest goals, the European Union&#x2019;s (EU) Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) has experienced no fewer difficulties in garnering men, money, and materiel. While this may not come as a surprise, the fact that some EU member states have carried disproportionate shares of the burden of CSDP operations is a puzzle that remains unaccounted for. We address this gap by analyzing determinants of contribution levels to CSDP operations. In employing an innovative multi-method design that combines insights from collection action theory with those from integrated theories of military burden sharing, our results indicate that EU countries tend to contribute in positive disproportion with their capabilities when they have a strong peacekeeping tradition and elections are distant. In contrast, they undercontribute when small trade volumes with the area of operations combine with a weak peacekeeping tradition.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 748-765
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1320183
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1320183
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:748-765




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: HongLi Fan
Author-X-Name-First: HongLi
Author-X-Name-Last: Fan
Author-Name: Wei Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Author-Name: Peter C. Coyte
Author-X-Name-First: Peter C.
Author-X-Name-Last: Coyte
Title: Do Military Expenditures Crowd-out Health Expenditures? Evidence from around the World, 2000&#x2013;2013
Abstract: 
 The paper examines the relationship between health and military expenditures using pooled cross-sectional (197 countries) and time series (2000&#x2013;2013) data. Simultaneous equation models were employed to estimate the relationship between an array of public sector expenditures in order to address potential endogeneity. Our empirical findings strongly support the crowding-out hypothesis whereby increased military expenditures reduce the capacity of government to direct expenditures to health expenditures. These findings were robust to alternative specifications explored in the sensitivity analyses. Compared with upper-middle-income countries, the crowding-out effect became more pronounced among lower-middle-income countries. Consequently, this study shows that increased military expenditures negatively impacts health expenditures, and therefore poses as an important risk factor for population health and individual well-being. Moreover, it is the poorest of nations that are most sensitive to the negative effects of increased military expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 766-779
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1303303
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1303303
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wen-Yi Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Wen-Yi
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Author-Name: Yai-Wun Liang
Author-X-Name-First: Yai-Wun
Author-X-Name-Last: Liang
Author-Name: Yu-Hui Lin
Author-X-Name-First: Yu-Hui
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin
Title: Does Health Spending Crowd out Defense in the United States? Evidence from Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis
Abstract: 
 This study investigates the association between defense and health spending using multi-resolution analysis incorporating the structural change model. Our empirical results suggested that a negative correlation between defense and health spending persists over the entire period of 1941&#x2013;2013 in the very long-run (over 16&#xA0;years cycle), but there is a change in correlation between defense and health spending in the short-run (2&#x2013;4&#xA0;years cycle), medium-run (4&#x2013;8&#xA0;years cycle), and long-run (8&#x2013;16&#xA0;years cycle) during the same period. In particular, there appears to have been a trade-off relationship between defense and health spending during the ex-Korean War period, but there was a complementary relationship between defense and health spending during the post-Korean War period. The crowding-out effect of health spending on defense spending during the period when the Affordable Care Act was put into effect relies on the strength of the positive correlation in the long-run (8&#x2013;16&#xA0;years cycle) and negative correlation in the short-run (2&#x2013;4&#xA0;years cycle) and very long-run (over 16&#xA0;years cycle).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 780-793
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1302772
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1302772
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:780-793




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jun Ando
Author-X-Name-First: Jun
Author-X-Name-Last: Ando
Title: Externality of Defense Expenditure in the United States: A New Analytical Technique to Overcome Multicollinearity
Abstract: 
 This study estimates a three-sector Feder&#x2013;Ram model using US annual data for 1965&#x2013;2014 to confirm the externality of defense expenditure in the United States. Although the model is often used in the literature to scrutinize whether this effect exists, a flaw intrinsic to this model is the appearance of multicollinearity. In this study, I introduced novel techniques, namely: the standardization and estimation of a simple slope, to estimate the model. The results are as follows. First, I prove that the multicollinearity problem can be resolved by standardization. Second, externality, which is judged to conventionally exist, is not found. Third, increases in defense expenditure bring about positive but limited economic growth when the ratio of private to defense expenditure in the previous year ranges from 5.09 to 6.82%. By re-estimating the model, this study contributes to developing the Feder&#x2013;Ram model within the related literature.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 794-808
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1293775
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1293775
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:794-808




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yingying Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Yingying
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Hsu Ling Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Hsu Ling
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Author-Name: Chi Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Adelina Dumitrescu
Author-X-Name-First: Adelina
Author-X-Name-Last: Dumitrescu
Title: Guns for Butter? Empirical Evidence from China
Abstract: 
 This study examines the causal nexus between defence spending and education expenditure in China using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The full-sample result indicates that there is no causality between defence spending and education expenditure. By adopting a time-varying rolling window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies a negative unidirectional causality running from education expenditure to defence spending. The finding suggests that it is the education expenditure crowds out defence spending in China rather than reverse. No causality is demonstrated from defence spending to education expenditure, indicating that an increase in military spending will not crowd out expenditure on education. The results could be partly explained by that the education expenditure in China is below the requirement of corresponding economic growth, urging for more financial budget. Whereas the findings support a negative trade-off between defence and education expenditures, they refute the theory of &#x2018;guns for butter&#x2019;.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 809-820
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1293791
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1293791
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:809-820




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Manuel Acosta
Author-X-Name-First: Manuel
Author-X-Name-Last: Acosta
Author-Name: Daniel Coronado
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Coronado
Author-Name: Esther Ferrandiz
Author-X-Name-First: Esther
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferrandiz
Author-Name: M. Rosario  Marin
Author-X-Name-First: M. Rosario
Author-X-Name-Last:  Marin
Author-Name: Pedro J. Moreno
Author-X-Name-First: Pedro J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Moreno
Title: Patents and Dual-use Technology: An Empirical Study of the World's Largest Defence Companies
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the generation of technological knowledge by leading companies in the defence industry. In particular, we test whether the characteristics of large defence companies are related to both the production of different types of patents (civilian, military and mixed), and the generation of dual-use technologies. To explore these links, we rely on economic data for the top 100 defence companies from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database, and patent information from the Worldwide Patent Statistical Database. Our results show that the relationship between the production of civilian patents and the size of the company is positive and significant. However, this relationship does not hold for the production of military patents. Furthermore, the military commercial profile is unrelated to the generation of military patents. Regarding the involvement in dual-use technologies, firms engaged in dual-use are those with higher military sales, a greater number of employees and a larger number of patents (civilian, military and mixed) than those not engaged in dual-use. Furthermore, we found a skill effect (more involvement in dual-use per employee) in European firms compared to US firms. These findings help to identify which firms should be targeted by government policies if increasing dual-use technologies becomes a political objective.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 821-839
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1303239
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1303239
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: L. Armey
Author-X-Name-First: L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Armey
Author-Name: F. Melese
Author-X-Name-First: F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Melese
Title: Minimizing Public Sector Corruption: The Economics of Crime, Identity Economics, and Money Laundering
Abstract: 
 This paper offers a simple strategic framework to help governments identify various policy mechanisms to minimize public sector corruption. The paper offers a formal model that blends the economics of crime with identity economics and money laundering. It presents a partial equilibrium framework that focuses on a representative public official engaged in a mix of legal and illegal effort. The model introduces various levers a government might use to impact the costs and benefits of illegal effort. The ultimate goal is to help turn volatile vicious cycles of political instability, into steady virtuous cycles of stability, growth, and sustainable development.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 840-852
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1318013
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1318013
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:840-852




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sakiru Adebola Solarin
Author-X-Name-First: Sakiru Adebola
Author-X-Name-Last: Solarin
Title: Determinants of military expenditure and the role of globalisation in a cross-country analysis
Abstract: 
 Anecdotal evidence offers conflicting views on the impact of globalisation on military expenditure. We contribute to the existing literature by investigating the effect of globalisation on military expenditure in 82 countries for the period, 1989&#x2013;2012. After introducing economic and strategic variables into the model, we utilise the dynamic panel generalised method of moments system to estimate the relationship in the variables. The empirical findings reveal that globalisation reduces both military burden and real military expenditure. The findings are consistent, irrespective of the globalisation indicator adopted. The policy implications of the results are explained.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 853-870
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1309259
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1309259
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:853-870




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ioannis-Dionysios Salavrakos
Author-X-Name-First: Ioannis-Dionysios
Author-X-Name-Last: Salavrakos
Title: A Re-assessment of the Japanese Armaments Production During World War II*
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the nexus between the Japanese strategy and economic&#x2013;industrial mobilization during the period 1937&#x2013;1945. From 1937 to December 1941, the country was engaged in a land war of attrition in China. This war requested an immense amount of resources and was associated with armaments procurement strategy with emphasis in the army. However, the Japanese strategic vision assumed that the state was strong enough to engage in one land war against China and in a naval war in the Pacific simultaneously. The basis of Japanese strategy was a utopia. Making things worse, the naval war in the Pacific was conducted against the most industrialized powers in the world [the US and the British Empire (Britain, Australia, India, etc.)]. Finally, the internal Japanese industrial mobilization was associated with immense errors in armaments production (absence of economies of scale and scope, limited raw materials, etc.). Under these circumstances, the defeat was an expected outcome.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 871-885
Issue: 7
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1293776
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1293776
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:7:p:871-885




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dursun Peksen
Author-X-Name-First: Dursun
Author-X-Name-Last: Peksen
Title: When Do Imposed Economic Sanctions Work? A Critical Review of the Sanctions Effectiveness Literature
Abstract: 
 There is growing policy consensus in Washington and other Western capitals that economic sanctions are powerful tools to cope with major foreign policy crises. Are sanctions, particularly targeted sanctions, really the potent instruments optimists suggest? Under what circumstances do punitive economic measures induce policy change in sanctioned countries? To probe these queries, in this article I outline the conditions that have been identified as more likely to lead to successful sanctions outcomes in the literature. I also discuss four major shortcomings of existing scholarship. First, the sender-biased interpretation of sanctions effectiveness renders the treatment of the ‘ineffective’ cases with negative outcomes the same as those cases that induce no discernable change in target behavior. Second, the prevalent use of static data from existing sanctions databases reduces the ability of researchers to study various time-specific factors affecting the probability of sanctions success. Third, the dominant state-centric bargaining model in the literature offers limited insight into contemporary coercive measures directed at non-state actors. Fourth, the study of sanctions in isolation of other instruments that frequently accompany them, such as incentives and diplomatic pressure, leads to a partial understanding of the specific role sanctions play in shaping the outcome of key foreign policy initiatives.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 635-647
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1625250
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1625250
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:635-647




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wondeuk Cho
Author-X-Name-First: Wondeuk
Author-X-Name-Last: Cho
Title: Making Dictators’ Pockets Empty: How Do U.S. Sanctions Influence Social Policies in Autocratic Countries?
Abstract: 
 This work examines how U.S. economic sanctions affect social welfare spending in authoritarian countries. U.S. economic sanctions play a role of leading autocratic targets to change social policy through two theoretical channels. First, U.S. economic sanctions may reduce autocrats’ resources to buy off supports from ruling elite groups and so force autocrats to reallocate government expenditure in favor of their supporting groups. Consequently, autocrats facing longer U.S. sanctions are likely to cut spending on public goods and services, especially on education and health care spending. Second, the impacts of U.S. sanction duration on social spending vary according to political variables such as autocrats’ pseudo-democratic institutions. The empirical findings show that, even when U.S. sanctions last a long time, autocrats under nominal democratic institutions cut spending on education and health to a lesser degree than do autocrats with no such institutions. In contrast, autocrats relying on pseudo-democratic institutions reduce social security spending a little more than did non-institutionalized autocrats.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 648-665
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1392832
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1392832
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:648-665




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eyal Lahav
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal
Author-X-Name-Last: Lahav
Author-Name: Shosh Shahrabani
Author-X-Name-First: Shosh
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahrabani
Author-Name: Uri Benzion
Author-X-Name-First: Uri
Author-X-Name-Last: Benzion
Title: Emotions, Risk Perceptions and Precautionary Actions of Citizens During a Military Operation Using a New Defence Technology: The Israeli Case of the Iron Dome
Abstract: 
 The current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 666-686
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1455132
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1455132
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Paul Azam
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Azam
Author-Name: Mario Ferrero
Author-X-Name-First: Mario
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferrero
Title: Jihad Against Palestinians? The Herostratos Syndrome and the Paradox of Targeting European Jews
Abstract: 
 This paper addresses the waves of mass killings recently perpetrated by individuals with a weak or nonexistent ideological motivation, whose acts either appear to contradict their purported political cause or are admittedly driven by a quest for notoriety. Examples range from killers who have been waging jihad against European Jews to unattached mass killers such as the Germanwings pilot to the perpetrators of mass school shootings in America and worldwide. We argue that these phenomena can be understood as instances of the Herostratos syndrome, which has been known for thousands of years as characterizing the behavior of people who seek to survive in the collective memory by excelling in their infamous acts. We provide a model of hybrid killers which accommodates the Herostratic motive alongside a political motive and characterize a well-behaved Nash equilibrium where Herostratic killers are competing with one another with a view to make a name for themselves in infamy. The policy implications point towards reducing the publicity the killers enjoy, thus frustrating their quest for notoriety.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 687-705
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1420331
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1420331
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:687-705




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tie-Ying Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Tie-Ying
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Author-Name: Chi-Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Author-Name: Han Cong
Author-X-Name-First: Han
Author-X-Name-Last: Cong
Title: Better is the Neighbor?
Abstract: 
 This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 706-718
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1422321
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1422321
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:706-718




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hiroyuki Seki
Author-X-Name-First: Hiroyuki
Author-X-Name-Last: Seki
Title: Allocating the U.S. Department of Defense Budget: Revisiting the ‘Incremental/Fair Share Model’
Abstract: 
 This article examines the ‘incremental/fair share model’ that was proposed by Alex Mintz in 1988 concerning the budget allocation of the U.S. Department of Defense. Although Mintz was unable to confirm the correctness of his model, this study demonstrated it to be statistically significant. In the statistical analyses, I used the two-stage least squares method and Durbin’s h-test to better scrutinize the model’s adequacy. Few previous studies have addressed the allocation of the U.S. defence budget; consequently, the incremental/fair-share model should constitute a starting point for further research on the U.S. defence budget allocation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 719-732
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1419402
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1419402
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:719-732




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mine Aksoy
Author-X-Name-First: Mine
Author-X-Name-Last: Aksoy
Author-Name: Sercan Demiralay
Author-X-Name-First: Sercan
Author-X-Name-Last: Demiralay
Title: The Effects of Terrorism on Turkish Financial Markets
Abstract: 
 In this research, we analyzed how Turkish financial markets and foreign investors in the stock market reacted to the terror attacks in Turkey. Our analysis, which was performed using the terror index for the stock market and the foreign exchange market, revealed that returns, abnormal returns, and cumulative abnormal returns were not affected by the terror attacks; however, foreign investors in the stock market were affected. When the geographic regions of the terror attacks were analyzed, the findings showed that foreign investors were negatively affected mainly by the terror attacks that occurred in southeast Anatolia. Attack type and target type were important only for foreign investors. An evaluation of the interaction between the terror attacks and the markets with the involvement of the terrorist organizations indicated that only the foreign investors in the stock market were affected by Al-Qaeda and PKK-linked terror attacks. An evaluation of the effect of terror attacks in foreign countries on Turkish financial markets revealed no effect on the domestic stock market and foreign exchange markets. We also examined the volatility spillovers from the terror index to the stock market and found that terrorist attacks increased the volatility of the stock market.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 733-755
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1408737
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1408737
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:733-755




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais
Title: Economie Militaire/Militärökonomie
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 756-757
Issue: 6
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1665782
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1665782
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:6:p:756-757




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pierluigi Daddi
Author-X-Name-First: Pierluigi
Author-X-Name-Last: Daddi
Author-Name: Giorgio d’Agostino
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: d’Agostino
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni
Author-X-Name-First: Luca
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni
Title: Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 440-458
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1158438
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1158438
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:4:p:440-458




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: José R. García
Author-X-Name-First: José R.
Author-X-Name-Last: García
Author-Name: Joaquín Murillo
Author-X-Name-First: Joaquín
Author-X-Name-Last: Murillo
Author-Name: Jordi Suriñach
Author-X-Name-First: Jordi
Author-X-Name-Last: Suriñach
Author-Name: Esther Vayá
Author-X-Name-First: Esther
Author-X-Name-Last: Vayá
Title: Economic impact of the ministry of defence’s budget: methodological design and results for the Spanish economy
Abstract: 
 This article analyses the economic impact of the expenditure budget of the Spanish Ministry of Defence (MoD) and its Autonomous Agencies (AA), distinguishing direct, indirect and induced effects. The input–output methodology is used to find intersectoral effects on the rest of the economy. The article quantifies the economic impact in terms of production, gross value added (GVA), employed population, tax revenue, and also in terms of its contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Spain in 2010. The results show that the activity of the MoD and AA generates 1.2% of the country’s GDP and 1.7% of total employment in that year.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 459-473
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1158439
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1158439
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:4:p:459-473




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lauren R. Heller
Author-X-Name-First: Lauren R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Heller
Author-Name: Robert A. Lawson
Author-X-Name-First: Robert A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lawson
Author-Name: Ryan H. Murphy
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Murphy
Author-Name: Claudia R. Williamson
Author-X-Name-First: Claudia R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Williamson
Title: Is human trafficking the dark side of economic freedom?
Abstract: 
 Economic freedom has increased living standards worldwide. Concurrent with such gains are rising concerns about potential human costs associated with free markets. This paper uses data on human trafficking and anti-trafficking policies, in conjunction with a measure of economic freedom, to examine whether free markets exacerbate or attenuate the incidence of human trafficking and policies designed to combat it. We do not find evidence suggesting that economic freedom is associated with human trafficking. In addition, our results suggest that economically free countries are more likely to enact and enforce policies to fight human trafficking.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 355-382
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1160604
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1160604
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yasutaka Tominaga
Author-X-Name-First: Yasutaka
Author-X-Name-Last: Tominaga
Title: Exploring the economic motivation of maritime piracy
Abstract: 
 This paper presents two hypotheses regarding the relationship between marine fisheries and maritime piracy. These hypotheses are based on the opportunity and willingness framework and describe how fish values and production can drive fishermen to engage in illegal activities, and the mechanisms that their capabilities and choices make available to them stipulate the forms that piracy takes when facing a declining fishing economy. The hypotheses are tested with the Maritime Piracy Data (MPD) using the negative binomial regression and the bivariate Poisson model. This study uses the instrumental variable approach to deal with endogeneity through two instruments: chlorophyll concentrations and temperature. The statistical analysis shows that unsophisticated piracy attacks are sensitive to fish production, but sophisticated attacks can be affected by both fish production and fish values and depend on the opportunity cost of existing fisheries and finding work in other industries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 383-406
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1195575
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195575
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:4:p:383-406




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jomon Aliyas Paul
Author-X-Name-First: Jomon Aliyas
Author-X-Name-Last: Paul
Author-Name: Aniruddha Bagchi
Author-X-Name-First: Aniruddha
Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi
Title: Does Terrorism Increase after a Natural Disaster? An Analysis based upon Property Damage
Abstract: 
 Does an emergency such as a natural disaster lead to a surge of terrorism? This paper contributes to the emerging literature on this issue. We consider the experience of 129 countries during the period 1998–2012 to determine the effect of a natural disaster on both domestic as well as transnational terrorism. We also control for endogeneity using expenditure on health care and land area in a country as instruments. In contrast to the existing literature, we measure the extent of terrorism by the value of property damage. The results indicate that after natural disasters, (a) transnational terrorism increases with a lag, and (b) a statistically significant impact on domestic terrorism is not observed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 407-439
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1204169
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1204169
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio d’Agostino
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: d’Agostino
Author-Name: John Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: John Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni
Author-X-Name-First: Luca
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni
Title: Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth
Abstract: 
 While not always a concern for the general economic growth literature, the debate over the effects of military spending on growth continues to develop, with no consensus, but a deepening understanding of the limitations of previous work. One important issue that has not been adequately dealt with is the endogeneity of military spending in the growth equation, mainly because of the difficulty of finding any variables that would make adequate instruments. This paper considers this issue, using an endogenous growth model estimated on a large sample of 109 non-high-income countries for the period 1998–2012. The empirical analysis is framed within an instrumental variable setting that exploits the increase in military spending that occurs when unrest in a country escalates to turmoil. The estimation results show that endogeneity arising from reverse causality is a crucial issue, with the instrumental variable estimates providing a larger significant negative effect of military spending on growth than OLS would. This result is found to be robust to different sources of heterogeneity and different time periods.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 509-524
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1422314
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1422314
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:509-524




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Natalia Utrero-González
Author-X-Name-First: Natalia
Author-X-Name-Last: Utrero-González
Author-Name: Jana Hromcová
Author-X-Name-First: Jana
Author-X-Name-Last: Hromcová
Author-Name: Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Callado-Muñoz
Title: Defence Spending, Institutional Environment and Economic Growth: Case of NATO
Abstract: 
 This paper analyses the impact of participating in a military alliance on the nexus between defence spending and economic growth. In particular, we study how the process of gradual association to a military organization influences the defence spending of newcomers, and consequently their economic growth. Conclusions from the theoretical model are tested empirically for countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Results show that the prospect of intensified military alliance partnership and membership has a positive effect on economic growth. In addition, increased security and stability gained by closer military cooperation reinforces the positive link with economic growth. Empirical evidence supports theoretical priors.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 525-548
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1400292
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1400292
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:525-548




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chuku Chuku
Author-X-Name-First: Chuku
Author-X-Name-Last: Chuku
Author-Name: Dominic Abang
Author-X-Name-First: Dominic
Author-X-Name-Last: Abang
Author-Name: Ima-Abasi Isip
Author-X-Name-First: Ima-Abasi
Author-X-Name-Last: Isip
Title: Growth and Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism in Nigeria
Abstract: 
 In spite of government counter-terrorism expenditure and efforts, the incidence of terrorism in Nigeria appears to be rising. This paper examines the growth and fiscal consequences of terrorism in Nigeria by estimating the terrorism–macroeconomy relation using different measures of terror incidence. The results show that terrorism has an economically and statistically significant negative impact on growth; although this impact is considerably small and short-lived, manifesting only after a lag of about three years. Specifically, the cost of terrorism to Nigeria, in terms of lost GDP per annum, is estimated at 0.82%. Moreover, there is evidence that terrorism leads to the reallocation of economic activity away from private investment spending to government spending; that is, terrorism crowds out investment at a higher rate than its potential to crowd in government spending. Lastly, terrorism alters the composition of government expenditure – with the defence component of government expenditure rising vis-a-vis other expenditure items. The results are robust to allowing for dynamic interactions between terrorism and macroeconomic aggregates.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 549-569
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1389583
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1389583
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura E. Armey
Author-X-Name-First: Laura E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Armey
Author-Name: Robert M. McNab
Author-X-Name-First: Robert M.
Author-X-Name-Last: McNab
Title: What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 570-591
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1405235
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1405235
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:570-591




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cruz A. Echevarría
Author-X-Name-First: Cruz A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Echevarría
Author-Name: Javier García-Enríquez
Author-X-Name-First: Javier
Author-X-Name-Last: García-Enríquez
Title: The Economic Consequences of the Libyan Spring: A Synthetic Control Analysis
Abstract: 
 In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi’s dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method. Our estimates for the 2011–2014 period show (i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; (ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and (iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 592-608
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1446241
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1446241
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:592-608




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Firat Bilgel
Author-X-Name-First: Firat
Author-X-Name-Last: Bilgel
Author-Name: Burhan Can Karahasan
Author-X-Name-First: Burhan Can
Author-X-Name-Last: Karahasan
Title: Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach
Abstract: 
 This study seeks to estimate the causal effects of PKK separatist terrorism on economic development in Turkey using the synthetic control method. By creating a synthetic control group that reproduces the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before PKK terrorism emerged in the late 1980s, we compare the GDP of the synthetic Turkey and the actual for the period 1955–2008. Our study finds that the Turkish per capita GDP would have been higher by about $2600 had it not been exposed to terrorism. This translates into an average of 21.4% higher per capita GDP over a period of 21 years.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 609-631
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1389582
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1389582
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:609-631




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James A. Piazza
Author-X-Name-First: James A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Piazza
Title: Book review of "Terrorism: What everyone needs to know" by Todd Sandler
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 632-633
Issue: 5
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1617620
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1617620
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:632-633




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind
Author-X-Name-Last: Du Bois
Title: Military deployment and international terrorism: do location and mission type matter?
Abstract: 
 Extant literature documents a relationship between military deployment and the risk of an international terrorist attack against citizens of the deploying country. It appears that deployment significantly increases the possibility of terrorist actions in the home country. In particular, if country A decides to send troops to nation B, then citizens of the former country are more likely to fall victim of an attack carried out by a terrorist organisation originating from the latter country. Contributing to this line of literature, we further refine this relationship by distinguishing between regions where the troops are sent as well as by introducing differences between types of deployment. Our results indicate that missions to Asia and the Middle East are more dangerous than missions to other regions as reflected by the terrorist threat in the home country. Robustness tests do however show that the significance of the location variable Asia is predominantly attributed to the mission to Afghanistan. As for types of deployment, only ad hoc missions seem to increase the risk of an attack, whereas no significant results are found for other missions such as operations under UN and NATO flag. Leaving out the missions to Iraq and Afghanistan however also increases the danger resulting from missions by fixed coalitions. Our results find however no evidence that ‘wearing a blue helmet’ increases the probability of a terrorist attack at home.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 621-633
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1186406
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1186406
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher W. Lavin
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lavin
Author-Name: Robert M. McNab
Author-X-Name-First: Robert M.
Author-X-Name-Last: McNab
Author-Name: Ryan S. Sullivan
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sullivan
Title: The long term effects of an aging fleet on operational availability and cost: evidence from the U.S. coast guard
Abstract: 
 This paper empirically examines whether the aging of a fleet affects operational availability and operating cost using a unique data-set on the 117 47-foot Motor Lifeboats (MLBs) of the United States Coast Guard (USCG). Procured from 1997 to 2003, the 47-foot MLB is the standard lifeboat of the USCG and all 117 MLBs remain in service. The aging of the MLB fleet has resulted in higher annual operating costs and lower operational availability, although the nature of this relationship remains unclear. Our estimation strategy utilizes an error components estimator to examine these issues. We employ three variants of the dependent variables (i.e. the standard logarithmic transformation as is most commonly seen in the literature, inverse hyperbolic sine [IHS], and level outcomes). The point estimates from the standard logarithmic model finds operational availability for the MLBs decreases at a rate between 0.83 and 1.8% per year and cost increases at a rate between 0.33 and 7.81% per year. Similar effects are shown with the IHS and level outcome specifications. In terms of nonlinearity effects, we find the most pronounced changes in operational availability and cost occur for MLBs aged 15 years or more (in comparison to younger MLBs).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 634-651
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1192833
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1192833
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:634-651




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sylvain Moura
Author-X-Name-First: Sylvain
Author-X-Name-Last: Moura
Author-Name: Jean-Michel Oudot
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Michel
Author-X-Name-Last: Oudot
Title: Performances of the defense industrial base in France: the role of small and medium enterprises
Abstract: 
 This paper employs an economic and statistical approach to get an overview of the defense industrial base (DIB) in France. It allows us to identify its main characteristics and to measure the role of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). An original data-set was built, thanks to the information from the Ministry of Defense (MOD), the French Customs Central and National Administration, the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and all the most relevant organizations specialized in the development, production or maintenance, repair, and overhaul of military goods in France. Overall, the DIB turns out as being composed of about 1800 enterprises in France (subcontractors included), of which three-third are SMEs. Along with high market concentration ratios, these enterprises are characterized by a significant military/civil duality, high labor productivity rates, and intensity in Research and Development.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 652-668
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1195574
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195574
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:652-668




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alexander Urnes Johnson
Author-X-Name-First: Alexander Urnes
Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson
Author-Name: Kjetil Hove
Author-X-Name-First: Kjetil
Author-X-Name-Last: Hove
Author-Name: Tobias Lillekvelland
Author-X-Name-First: Tobias
Author-X-Name-Last: Lillekvelland
Title: Country survey: military expenditure and defence policy in Norway 1970–2013
Abstract: 
 This article examines military expenditure and defence policy in Norway from 1970 to 2013. Until 1990 Norwegian military expenditure remained between 2.5 and 3.0 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite constant GDP shares, the military expenditure could not sustain a large and properly armed mobilization army. The constant nominal defence budgets of the 1990s accentuated the Norwegian Armed Forces' underlying imbalance between tasks, structure and budget. Around year 2000, large organizational reforms were effectuated, in which costs, the number of man-years, and underlying imbalances between tasks, structure and budget were reduced. Military expenditure increased in nominal terms between 2003 and 2013, while real military expenditure remained practically constant.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 669-685
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1101896
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1101896
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ying Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Ying
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Name: Xiaoxing Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaoxing
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Author-Name: Jiaxin Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Jiaxin
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Rui Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Rui
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Title: Does military spending promote social welfare? A comparative analysis of the BRICS and G7 countries
Abstract: 
 Whether military spending is capable of promoting social welfare is currently a controversial issue. The aim of this paper is to investigate how military spending affects the input and output of social welfare (i.e. social welfare expenditures and social welfare index). A panel cointegration analysis and an impulse response function are conducted with multi-country panel data, over two time periods, 1998–2011 and 1993–2007. In addition, to extend a comparative analysis over different economies, BRICS (i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and G7 (i.e. the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Canada) countries are selected as representatives of emerging economies and developed countries, respectively. The empirical results show that military spending enhances social welfare expenditures in developed countries, while the effect is ambiguous in emerging economies. Also, military spending is capable of promoting the social welfare index based on the FMOLS estimation. The comparative analyses indicate that unlike in the G7, the effect of the growth of military spending on the growth of social welfare expenditures is negative and shorter in the BRICS.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 686-702
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1144899
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1144899
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:686-702




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Liming Zhao
Author-X-Name-First: Liming
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao
Author-Name: Liang Zhao
Author-X-Name-First: Liang
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao
Author-Name: Bing-Fu Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Bing-Fu
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Title: The interrelationship between defence spending, public expenditures and economic growth: evidence from China
Abstract: 
 This study examines the relationship between defence spending, other components of public spending and economic growth for the 1952–2012 period in China using Granger causality tests and generalised impulse response functions based on vector error correction models. The empirical results reveal two long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables and also show that defence spending inversely and unidirectionally Granger impacts economic growth. Furthermore, empirical findings point to a trade-off relationship between defence spending and public expenditures in China. From a policy maker’s perspective, the findings reported herein imply that a decrease in defence spending may stimulate economic growth.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 703-718
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2015.1111603
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2015.1111603
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:703-718




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Duygu Yolcu Karadam
Author-X-Name-First: Duygu
Author-X-Name-Last: Yolcu Karadam
Author-Name: Jülide Yildirim
Author-X-Name-First: Jülide
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim
Author-Name: Nadir Öcal
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir
Author-X-Name-Last: Öcal
Title: Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach
Abstract: 
 The economic growth effects of military expenditure have been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. Theories on the economic impacts of military expenditure greatly differ and include arguments that they either enhance economic growth or crowd out productive investments. Empirical literature on defence expenditure and economic growth nexus generally employs linear specifications to investigate the impact of defence expenditures on economic growth. Although it is now well established that many economic variables may have a non-linear data-generating mechanism, it seems that this reality has long been neglected in empirical work on defence–growth nexus. This paper attempts to fill this gap by employing non-linear panel data models to examine the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time period 1988–2012. Results show that the effect of military expenditure on economic growth is nonlinear such that the state of the economy actually determines the effect of the former on the latter. This is important not only in showing asymmetric relationship between these variables but also in revealing the reasons of mixed results of earlier literature.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 719-730
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1195573
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:719-730




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ying Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Ying
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Name: Rui Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Rui
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name: Dongqi Yao
Author-X-Name-First: Dongqi
Author-X-Name-Last: Yao
Title: Does defence expenditure have a spillover effect on income inequality? A cross-regional analysis in China
Abstract: 
 China’s defence expenditure has been growing rapidly along with GDP growth during the past two decades. Meanwhile, the income gap has continued to increase. There are conflicting views regarding whether the defence expenditure is capable of reducing income inequality. Therefore, this paper investigates the existence of any spillover effect of defence expenditure on income inequality, with a special focus on the regional differences among 31 provinces and 7 military regions in China. We extend panel cointegration and the impulse response function by using panel data during the period of 1997–2012. The empirical results show that the defence expenditure has an impact on income inequality, and the effect varies over different regions in China. The defence expenditure has a spillover effect on income inequality in the full sample panel and the southeastern panel. An increase in the defence expenditure does not crowd out social welfare spending due to the high level of economic development and government expenditure. On the contrary, in the northern panel, the effect is opposite because of the unbalanced economic development levels within the panel. Beijing as the capital of China, benefits more from the expansion of defence expenditure thus widening the income gap. In addition, the impulse response analyses further confirm a stronger effect of the defence expenditure on income inequality in the northern and the southeastern panels over a short period.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 731-749
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1245812
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1245812
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial Board
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: (ebi)-(ebi)
Issue: 6
Volume: 28
Year: 2017
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1396671
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1396671
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:28:y:2017:i:6:p:(ebi)-(ebi)




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ugur Berk
Author-X-Name-First: Ugur
Author-X-Name-Last: Berk
Title: Meaning of working and expectations: a research on professional soldier candidates in Turkey
Abstract: 
 Previous studies on the relationship between individual’s enlistment decisions and their personal characteristics examined a number of variables such as age, marital status, gender, family background, geographical background, employment situation and education level. However, attitudes towards working, expectations from a good job and centrality of working are also important determinants in this process. This paper examines the profile of juveniles who seek a career as gendarmerie non-commissioned officers (NCO) in the Turkish Armed Forces and their attitudes and expectations towards working in general within the framework of Meaning of Working (MOW) researches. According to the results of the survey conducted with 500 NCO candidates in Turkey, learning something new, good relations with colleagues and employment guarantee are detected as the main expectations of juveniles who seek a career in military. Results also show that having a job is so important for these young people that they consider having a job even prior to their families.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 525-540
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1186405
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1186405
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:525-540




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aviad Tur-Sinai
Author-X-Name-First: Aviad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tur-Sinai
Author-Name: Dmitri Romanov
Author-X-Name-First: Dmitri
Author-X-Name-Last: Romanov
Title: The effect of terror on job stability among security guards
Abstract: 
 Palestinian uprising, ‘intifada’, aggravated the recession of 2001–2004 in Israel which dampened demand for labor in all industries except security services. We use this exogenous shock to study whether a cohort of young men who were attached to temporary jobs as security guards for unusually long periods of time during the intifada landed on an inferior career path, as compared to security guards from a pre-intifada cohort. We find that the intifada cohort had less employment mobility, were ultimately less connected with the labor market, and earned less on jobs after the security services, relatively to the pre-intifada cohort.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 503-524
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1186407
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1186407
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:503-524




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mario Arturo  Ruiz Estrada
Author-X-Name-First: Mario Arturo
Author-X-Name-Last:  Ruiz Estrada
Author-Name: Donghyun Park
Author-X-Name-First: Donghyun
Author-X-Name-Last: Park
Author-Name: Jung Suk Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Jung Suk
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model
Abstract: 
 There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 541-556
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1200219
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1200219
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:541-556




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Avni Önder Hanedar
Author-X-Name-First: Avni Önder
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanedar
Author-Name: Elmas Yaldız Hanedar
Author-X-Name-First: Elmas Yaldız
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanedar
Author-Name: Erdost Torun
Author-X-Name-First: Erdost
Author-X-Name-Last: Torun
Author-Name: Hasan Murat Ertuğrul
Author-X-Name-First: Hasan Murat
Author-X-Name-Last: Ertuğrul
Title: Dissolution of an Empire: Insights from the İstanbul Bourse and the Ottoman War Bond
Abstract: 
 During the transformation period of the Ottoman Empire leading to the Republic of Turkey, many conflicts took place between 1918 and 1923. These conflicts interrupted the servicing of the Ottoman war bond. The reimbursement likelihood of this bond was related to the outcomes of First World War and the hostilities. This paper analyses the impacts of First World War and hostilities on the risk assessments regarding the Ottoman war debt, using manually collected data on the price of the Ottoman war bond traded at the İstanbul bourse between 1918 and 1925. The empirical results imply that the defeat of the Bulgarian army and the peace offer of Austria-Hungary were associated with the increasing premium demanded by investors of the bond. The victories of the Turkish National Movement and the peace offer of the Allies to end the hostilities by 1922 positively affected the likelihood of the servicing of the debt.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 557-575
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1239319
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1239319
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:557-575




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeremy Arkes
Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy
Author-X-Name-Last: Arkes
Title: Empirical Biases and Some Remedies in Estimating the Effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses on Reenlistment Rates
Abstract: 
 Researchers have, for decades, been attempting to estimate the effects of Selective Reenlistment Bonuses (SRBs) on the probability of reenlistment for the military services. SRBs are targeted to specific military occupations for which reenlistment rates are lower (or expected to be lower) than what is needed. This article first identifies four primary sources of biases affecting these models: reverse causality from supply shifts (a negative bias), the endogeneity of the decision point causing coded SRBs to be higher for reenlisters than leavers (a positive bias), measurement error (a likely negative bias), and excess supply preventing the full effect of an SRB change to materialize (a positive or negative bias). The report proceeds to develop a model that attempts to address the first two biases. With U.S. Navy data from FY2001-FY2008, I examine the extent to which these two biases are affecting the estimated SRB effects. Despite these corrections, the difficulty of addressing the other biases calls into doubt studies that examine the effects of retention bonuses or even the effects of the structure of military pay in general.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 475-502
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2016.1246635
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2016.1246635
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:475-502




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sami Miaari
Author-X-Name-First: Sami
Author-X-Name-Last: Miaari
Author-Name: Massimiliano Cali
Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano
Author-X-Name-Last: Cali
Title: Political economic perspectives of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 576-576
Issue: 5
Volume: 29
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1483725
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1483725
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:29:y:2018:i:5:p:576-576




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Asali
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Asali
Title: Compulsory Military Service and Future Earnings: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Abstract: 
 Using Israeli census data, and the random assignment of Arab males to military service, this study provides new evidence on the long-term effects of military service on the earnings of veterans. Among Druze men, we find an economically and statistically significant positive effect of 23% on their wages. The unskilled experience a slightly higher premium. The positive effects are large and intensify over time. Skill enhancement and usual human capital accumulation do not explain the positive effect of military service. Networking during service is proposed as a likely explanation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 402-420
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1327294
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1327294
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:402-420




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrew Phiri
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew
Author-X-Name-Last: Phiri
Title: Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?
Abstract: 
 Using annual data collected from 1988 to 2015, this study provides evidence of a non-linear relationship between military spending, economic growth and other growth determinants for the South African economy. The empirical study is based on estimates of a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) model and our empirical results point to an inverted U-shaped relationship between military spending and economic growth for the data. Furthermore, our empirical results suggest that the current levels of military spending, as a component of total government expenditure, are too high in the South African economy and need to be transferred towards more productive non-military expenditure in order to improve the performance of economic growth and other growth determinants.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 474-487
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1361272
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1361272
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:474-487




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Johanna von Borstel
Author-X-Name-First: Johanna
Author-X-Name-Last: von Borstel
Author-Name: Tom Gobien
Author-X-Name-First: Tom
Author-X-Name-Last: Gobien
Author-Name: Duncan Roth
Author-X-Name-First: Duncan
Author-X-Name-Last: Roth
Title: Terror and Internal Migration in Israel
Abstract: 
 This paper empirically analyses the effect of terror on internal migration between Israeli subdistricts. Using a unique data-set comprising migration flows for the period 1999–2012 and the number of rocket and non-rocket attacks, we test the hypotheses that terror reduces migration into an affected subdistrict and increases migration out of it. According to our results, the effect of terror on migration is asymmetric as we only find evidence for the first hypothesis. This result remains when we use an instrumental variables strategy that corrects for underreporting of the number of rocket attacks. The largest effects of rocket attacks are found for migration into the Southern subdistrict of Ashqelon as well as into other border regions in Northern Israel, while non-rocket attacks also have substantial effects in the more populous centres of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 421-437
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1361723
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1361723
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:421-437




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Nasir
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir
Author-Name: Faiz Ur Rehman
Author-X-Name-First: Faiz Ur
Author-X-Name-Last: Rehman
Title: Correlates of Perceived Insecurity: Evidence from Pakistan
Abstract: 
 This study explores the correlates of perceived insecurity among the households in Pakistan. For this purpose, data from the third round of Pakistan Panel Household Survey are merged with terrorist incidents taken from Global Terrorism Database. The results illustrate that objective risk, signified by violence in the district of residence, and victimization play an important role in the formation of perceived insecurity. Moreover, males and residents of rural areas feel more insecure than females and urban residents, respectively. Furthermore, spatial variation in violence indicates that terrorist attacks in the first-order contiguous districts (i.e. the immediate neighbors) are also associated with subjective insecurity. These are crucial findings because behavioral changes, such as perceived insecurity, could force the households to make suboptimal investment decisions. More importantly, since changes in behavioral parameters may be highly persistent, this study cautions that violence in Pakistan may have potentially long-term impacts on social welfare.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 488-504
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1362628
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1362628
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:488-504




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kjetil Hatlebakk Hove
Author-X-Name-First: Kjetil Hatlebakk
Author-X-Name-Last: Hove
Author-Name: Tobias Lillekvelland
Author-X-Name-First: Tobias
Author-X-Name-Last: Lillekvelland
Title: On Growing Operating Costs in the Armed Forces
Abstract: 
 Operating costs per unit of input or output are often claimed to grow faster in defence than elsewhere in the economy. In this paper, we outline several possible reasons as to why operating costs increase at higher rates in defence, including differences in the input factor mix and productivity growth, the technological complexity required to maintain the relative effect of weapon systems and a gradual reduction in the number of units and activity. We investigate whether operating costs grow at a faster rate than elsewhere in the economy, by estimating growth in real output unit costs in the Norwegian Armed Forces for the period 1994–2013, using activity as a measure of output. We find no increase beyond general inflation in structural (fixed) costs, whereas activity-based (variable) costs per unit of activity increase significantly.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 438-453
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1413621
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2017.1413621
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:438-453




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Justin George
Author-X-Name-First: Justin
Author-X-Name-Last: George
Author-Name: Dongfang Hou
Author-X-Name-First: Dongfang
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: Asia-Pacific Demand for Military Expenditure: Spatial Panel and SUR Estimates
Abstract: 
 This article investigates the demand for military expenditure for a sample of key Asia-Pacific countries. Spatial panel demand estimates are presented for three joined spatial units using a fixed-coefficient spatial lag model based on a two-step efficient GMM estimator. Spatial autoregression estimates are next presented for 1991–2015, founded on alternative kinds of country connectivities, such as contiguity, inverse distance, discrete distance, and power-projection considerations. Finally, 11 select countries’ demands for defense equations are estimated using seemingly unrelated regressions. From alternative perspectives, these estimated models indicate how Asia-Pacific countries respond to the defense spending of other countries. In the spatial runs, free riding is prevalent despite the growing military might of China, which apparently is not generally viewed as a threat. For the sample period, the projection of Chinese or American power is a relevant spatial factor. The main threat is reflected in non-U.S. allies’ reaction to U.S. allies’ defense spending during 1991–2015 and to Chinese defense spending after 2002.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 381-401
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1434375
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1434375
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:381-401




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: R. Derek Trunkey
Author-X-Name-First: R. Derek
Author-X-Name-Last: Trunkey
Title: Operating Costs of Aging Air Force Aircraft: Adjusting for Aggregate Budget Effects
Abstract: 
 The rate at which operating costs grow as aircraft age is important for setting operating budgets and for deciding when to replace aging systems. While studies using data from the 1990's typically found 1–3 percent real rates of growth in operating costs as aircraft age, studies using data from the 2000's found greater rates, for example in the 4–6 percent range. Growth in the total U.S. Air Force budget during the 2000s appears to explain much of the higher estimated annual growth rates in operating costs per flying hour beyond the growth rate intrinsic to the aging of the fleet.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 454-461
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1547953
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1547953
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:454-461




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou
Author-Name: Adonia Chiminya
Author-X-Name-First: Adonia
Author-X-Name-Last: Chiminya
Title: Military Spending, Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract: 
 The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 462-473
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1556996
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1556996
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:462-473




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Matthew Uttley
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew
Author-X-Name-Last: Uttley
Title: Review of ‘The Emergence of EU Defense Research Policy: From Innovation to Militarization’
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 505-507
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2019
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1571826
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1571826
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:4:p:505-507




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jomana Amara
Author-X-Name-First: Jomana
Author-X-Name-Last: Amara
Title: Military Women and the Force of the Future
Abstract: 
 Women are one of the fastest growing segments of the U.S .military population. Since the U.S. Department of Defense rescinded ‘Direct Ground Combat Definition and Assignment Rule,’ and implemented the 2016 policy to allow women into combat arms, the next time the United States goes to war, women will be at the battle forefront. This special issue of Defence and Peace Economics (DPE) explores the implication of the directive on the demand and supply of military labor and possible substitution and complementarity within military occupational classifications in response to the directive. The three papers highlighted in this special issue approach the status of women in the forces from three different aspects, integration, health, and education.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-3
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1697500
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1697500
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:1-3




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jennifer Kavanagh
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer
Author-X-Name-Last: Kavanagh
Author-Name: Jennie W. Wenger
Author-X-Name-First: Jennie W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Wenger
Title: Integrating Women Into the Marine Corps Infantry: Costs, Representation, and Lessons from Earlier Integration Efforts
Abstract: 
 While women have been present on battlefields through history, their roles have expanded considerably in recent decades. The lifting of remaining restrictions fits into the pattern of expansion over time. Here, we focus on the Marine Corps infantry. We model the entry of women into infantry positions over time, but we also provide context for the current changes based on previous U.S. experience, and the experiences of other countries. Previous experiences opening closed occupations to women suggest that a variety of specific strategies are likely to be helpful to the Marines’ integration efforts. Both our cost model and previous experiences suggest that the proportion of women in the Marine Corps infantry is likely to grow very slowly; rates at which women complete training and remain in the Marine Corps will have a substantial impact on this growth. Mostly because growth is expected to be slow, the personnel-related costs of integration are predicted to be modest.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 4-23
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1465675
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1465675
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:4-23




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Bella Etingen
Author-X-Name-First: Bella
Author-X-Name-Last: Etingen
Author-Name: Scott Miskevics
Author-X-Name-First: Scott
Author-X-Name-Last: Miskevics
Author-Name: Alex Malhiot
Author-X-Name-First: Alex
Author-X-Name-Last: Malhiot
Author-Name: Sherri L. LaVela
Author-X-Name-First: Sherri L.
Author-X-Name-Last: LaVela
Title: Patient Engagement in VA Health Care: Does Gender Play a Role?
Abstract: 
 The objectives of this study were to compare gender differences in patient activation (i.e. engagement) among Veteran VA health care users, and determine if high engagement is associated with gender. A mailed national survey with Veterans provided demographics and the main outcome, patient engagement (e.g. Patient Activation Measure (PAM) scores). Administrative databases identified: history of military sexual trauma, illness severity (e.g. Charlson Comorbidity Index scores). Bivariate comparisons were conducted by gender, and multivariate logistic regression examined whether patient engagement was independently associated with being a woman Veteran, when controlling for confounders. Bivariate analyses revealed that women Veterans (vs. male Veterans) Veterans reported higher average levels of engagement (59.72 vs. 56.00, p = 0.0008). Multivariate analyses revealed that women Veterans were 1.5 times more likely than male Veterans to report being most highly engaged in their health/health care (e.g. activation scores classified as PAM level 4) [OR = 1.52, CI95 1.06–2.18, p = 0.0079]. Collectively, results indicate that women Veterans are more engaged in their health/health care than male Veterans are. Improvement efforts should focus on narrowing gender differences in patient engagement in health/health care among Veterans receiving care from the VA.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 24-33
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1465676
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1465676
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:24-33




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Armey
Author-X-Name-First: Laura
Author-X-Name-Last: Armey
Title: Women at War: Understanding the Impacts of Combat on Women’s Educational Attainment
Abstract: 
 This paper offers a first view on the potential economic outcomes for American women serving along-side men in combat roles. Specifically, this paper examines the impact of deployment and exposure to intense combat for women who served in the most high-risk occupations open to them in Iraq and Afghanistan on their subsequent use of GI bill benefits for higher education. It also compares these women to men who served in the same capacities and women who served in lower risk occupations. Women in general, and in these occupations in particular, were more likely than their male counterparts to use the GI bill. Following deployment, this paper presents robust evidence that women in all capacities, and men, were more likely to use their GI bill benefits. Moreover, exposure to intense combat, which was far more likely to impact these women than other women, detracted from their propensity to use the GI bill. This negative impact on pursuit of higher education was similar for both men and women. Taken together, this paper provides evidence that deployment may benefit the young men and women alike who serve in the U.S. military, and that both suffer together when faced with exposure to intense fighting.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 34-47
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1467104
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1467104
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:34-47




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xiaoxue Li
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaoxue
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Title: Improving the Labor Market Outcomes of US Veterans: The Long-Run Effect of the Transition Assistance Program
Abstract: 
 The success of military recruiting depends largely on the potential consequences of military services. This study examines how military service affects labor market outcomes of veterans. Specifically, I focus on how the Transition Assistance Program (TAP), a career assistance program, help military personnel transition to the civilian labor market. To identify the effects of TAP, I exploit variation in program accessibility generated by its initial rollout process. Using data from the Current Population Survey, I find that TAP improves the labor market outcomes of veterans, measured approximately ten years after separation. Specifically, it leads a significant increase in labor force participation. One possible mechanism is that TAP encourages the use of the GI Bill, a program that provides financial assistance to attend institutions of higher education.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 48-69
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1532229
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1532229
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:48-69




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mie Augier
Author-X-Name-First: Mie
Author-X-Name-Last: Augier
Author-Name: Andrew W. Marshall
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Marshall
Title: A Re-appreciation of Charlie Hitch and his Contributions to Economics, Security, and the Management of Organizations
Abstract: 
 This paper discusses central ideas in the work of Charles Hitch. He is known for his pioneering contributions to defense economics and ‘systems analysis’ and for his introducing program budgeting in McNamara’s Pentagon. We discuss the evolution of his work and ideas, and how his views on systems analysis were influenced by his broader interest in human and organizational behavior. The paper also emphasizes Hitch’s skills as leader and manager of organizations (in particular as the head of the economics department at RAND).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 70-85
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1441011
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1441011
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
Author-X-Name-First: Kyriakos
Author-X-Name-Last: Emmanouilidis
Author-Name: Christos Karpetis
Author-X-Name-First: Christos
Author-X-Name-Last: Karpetis
Title: The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results
Abstract: 
 A great part of the defense literature is focused on the interaction between military spending and economic activity. To investigate this interrelationship, researchers have applied a wide variety of methodologies with totally different assumptions and statistical properties. Until today, however, no detailed examination of the sensitivity of empirical results to the various statistical methods has been provided in the literature. The present paper attempts to fill this gap by providing, firstly, a review of the majority of the time series methodologies used in the defense–growth literature and, secondly, an econometric application using data of the U.S. economy over the period 1961–2015 in order to establish empirically the association between econometric procedures and empirical results. The empirical findings of the conducted analysis suggest that statistical methods can indeed become a significant source of variation in the investigation of the defense–growth nexus.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 86-104
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1428261
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1428261
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:1:p:86-104




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ying Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Ying
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Name: Jiaxin Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Jiaxin
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Ling Zhai
Author-X-Name-First: Ling
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhai
Title: Are there Bubbles in the Defence Sector of China’s Stock Market (2005–2016)? New Evidence from Sequential ADF Tests
Abstract: 
 During the past decade, China’s defence industry has experienced significant reforms, with increasing numbers of defence companies being listed on the stock market. Meanwhile, China’s stock market has suffered from dramatic fluctuations. This article, therefore, attempts to break new ground on an empirical research agenda to detect bubbles in the defence sector of China’s stock market and how these bubbles can be impacted by the entire stock market and defence industry. To explain this issue, sequential unit root tests are introduced to investigate the existence of bubbles in the defence sector using monthly frequency data from China’s stock market from January 2005 to June 2016. The empirical results show strong evidence of explosive behaviours in the defence sector during the past decade. Moreover, the number of bubbles has changed greatly when accounting for the entire stock market. The empirical results indicate that bubbles in the middle of 2006 and at the end of 2014 were driven by the defence industry because of the sharp increase of military expenditure and the release of innovative defence reforms. Finally, we suggest that the government could control the annual budget increase at a steady pace and implement defence reforms by carrying out experimental units gradually.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 105-119
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1428857
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1428857
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ronen Bar-El
Author-X-Name-First: Ronen
Author-X-Name-Last: Bar-El
Author-Name: Eyal Pecht
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal
Author-X-Name-Last: Pecht
Author-Name: Asher Tishler
Author-X-Name-First: Asher
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler
Title: Human Capital and National Security
Abstract: 
 This study evaluates the relationship between a country’s human capital and its capacity to achieve, over time, effective national security. We show that an increase in the importance that a country attributes to its future, and/or in the effectiveness of its education system, leads to a decline in its current civilian services but to increases in its future human capital, civilian services, national security, and social welfare. Data for the Israeli-Iranian arms race confirm our predictions and show that a predilection for short-term political or personal gains impedes investment in human capital and inhibits future economic growth, national security and social welfare.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 121-141
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1485088
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1485088
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James A. Piazza
Author-X-Name-First: James A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Piazza
Title: Suicide Attacks and Hard Targets: An Empirical Examination
Abstract: 
 Suicide terrorist attacks are theorized to provide militants with various strategic advantages. Among these is the ability to successfully strike against well-defended or ‘hard’ targets. Scholars argue that because suicide attacks produce higher levels of damage and do not require an escape route for the perpetrator, they are particularly effective against hard targets. Consequently, militants should be expected to use such attacks more frequently, and successfully, against hard targets. This study empirically tests this contention using incident-level data on between 22,000 and 170,000 terrorist attacks in between 154 and 175 countries for the period 1970–2016. It makes two key findings. First, suicide attacks are both more frequently deployed against hard targets, and are more often successfully executed against hard targets. Second, this finding is not a product of foreign military interventions, as previous literature might suggest. Suicide attacks are found to be more likely to be launched against, with success, both domestic and foreign military targets. This underscores the importance of qualities of the target itself when explaining the strategic decision to use suicide attacks by militant groups.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 142-159
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1509257
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1509257
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Meierrieks
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Meierrieks
Author-Name: Thomas Gries
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas
Author-X-Name-Last: Gries
Title: ‘Pay for It Heavily’: Does U.S. Support for Israel Lead to Anti-American Terrorism?
Abstract: 
 After the 9/11 attacks in particular, there has been a controversial discussion in the academic and public arena on whether the United States’ close relationship with Israel has made it a likelier target of transnational terrorism. Indeed, foreign terrorist organizations with various ideological profiles have repeatedly justified attacks against U.S. interests as punishment for the (purported) special relationship between the United States and Israel. We analyze the effect of various measures of U.S. support for Israel (e.g. U.S. military assistance to Israel) on anti-American terrorism for the period 1970–2014. Using both time-series and panel approaches, we do not find that more U.S. support for Israel systematically translates into more anti-American terrorism. Rather, other systemic (e.g. U.S. dominance in the international system) and local conditions (e.g. local state failure) are found to predict the patterns of anti-American terrorism. However, as a qualification to these general findings, we also provide some (preliminary) evidence that for terrorism originating from the Middle East and Northern Africa a favorable U.S. policy stance towards Israel may indeed contribute to more anti-American terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 160-176
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1560558
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1560558
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Patricia L. Sullivan
Author-X-Name-First: Patricia L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sullivan
Author-Name: Leo J. Blanken
Author-X-Name-First: Leo J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Blanken
Author-Name: Ian C. Rice
Author-X-Name-First: Ian C.
Author-X-Name-Last: Rice
Title: Arming the Peace: Foreign Security Assistance and Human Rights Conditions in Post-Conflict Countries
Abstract: 
 What are the effects of foreign security assistance on the quality of the peace in post-conflict countries? Despite the stakes, and the tremendous amount of weaponry and other forms of foreign military aid flowing to governments of post-conflict countries, the academic literature provides little guidance as to what effects policymakers and practitioners should expect from this type of aid. Military assistance provided to the government of a country emerging from the turmoil of civil war could enable the state to establish a monopoly on the legitimate use of force, leading to a more durable peace and greater human security. However, we contend that significant flows of military aid and weapons from foreign governments may encourage regimes to adopt more repressive approaches to governance. We investigate the impact of security assistance on human rights conditions after 171 internal armed conflicts that ended between 1956 and 2012 using a novel measure of military aid and an instrumented measure of weapons transfers. We find strong evidence that both military aid and arms transfers to post-conflict governments increase state repression.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 177-200
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1558388
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1558388
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vesa Kanniainen
Author-X-Name-First: Vesa
Author-X-Name-Last: Kanniainen
Author-Name: Juha-Matti Lehtonen
Author-X-Name-First: Juha-Matti
Author-X-Name-Last: Lehtonen
Title: Cooperative Procurement in Building National Defence: Why Are There So Few?
Abstract: 
 The economic benefits of cooperative procurement derive from, at minimum, increased bargaining power relative to contractors and from economies of scale in production. There is, however, a puzzle: why is this kind of procurement so rare? This paper introduces a bargaining model with forward-looking expectations about the scale of procurement. It is shown that the price sensitivity of the scale of acquisition is favourable for the buying partnership, as it tends to push down the bargaining price. We propose several explanations for why it is hard to align buyers’ incentives: First, preferences for the properties of the products are country-specific, with divergent implications for national security. Second, countries that place a low value on the product have more bargaining power than those that value it highly, and may require a side payment in order to enter a partnership, while the partner may not have sufficient incentives to make such a payment. Third, the gains from cooperative procurement for the producer may not be sufficient to compensate for conflicting preferences among contractors. Fourth, while the future unpredictability of technologies or the future risks of deteriorating national security might support longer-term cooperative procurement, short-term opportunism tends to prevent long-term commitments.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 201-219
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1471320
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1471320
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Martí Sempere
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Martí Sempere
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfria Mesa
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfria Mesa
Title: An Analysis of the Defence Industrial Market Based on Agents
Abstract: 
 This article analyses the defence industrial market using an agent-based model. The model draws a simplified version of the sector regarding the market agents and their conduct based on empirical data and commonly observed micro-regularities. Its computer implementation is initially tested on a simple scenario to verify its realism. Afterwards, some specific scenarios, caused by government industrial policies, are assessed. The main finding is the capability of the model to reproduce the behaviour of market agents and to replicate the evolution of the macroeconomic indicators and patterns normally seen under different, but common conditions and policies (e.g. free market, discriminatory procurement, licensed production or multilateral development and production). This suggests a powerful tool for gaining further insight and exploring government policies in this important economic sector.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 220-244
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 2
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1500675
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1500675
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonis L. Theocharous
Author-X-Name-First: Antonis L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Theocharous
Author-Name: Anastasios Zopiatis
Author-X-Name-First: Anastasios
Author-X-Name-Last: Zopiatis
Author-Name: Neophytos Lambertides
Author-X-Name-First: Neophytos
Author-X-Name-Last: Lambertides
Author-Name: Christos S. Savva
Author-X-Name-First: Christos S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Savva
Author-Name: Yoel Mansfeld
Author-X-Name-First: Yoel
Author-X-Name-Last: Mansfeld
Title: Tourism, Instability and Regional Interdependency: Evidence from the Eastern-Mediterranean
Abstract: 
 Over the last three decades, we have widely witnessed the peculiar relationship between tourism and incidents of political instability. Responding to the urgent call for additional empirical inquiries, we conducted an econometric study, using the VAR-EGARCH-DCC model, on the regional tourism interdependency (volatility) between four Eastern Mediterranean countries, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus and Israel. Monthly arrival data from 1987 to 2012, along with a series of political instability variables collected from machine-coded databases, were utilized to model effects and to add empirical substance to contemporary and emerging theories. Our findings are relevant to industry stakeholders in that they explore tourism demand and volatilities. The findings indicate a positive effect on tourism demand in the presence of verbal or material cooperation between a destination country and others. In contrast, when investigating verbal conflict between a destination country and others, our findings reveal a negative impact on tourist arrivals and an increase in volatility in the destination country. Finally, in our investigation of incidents of material conflict, we saw a strong negative impact on tourist arrivals in all four destinations, accompanied by a significant increase in volatility.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 245-268
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1501531
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1501531
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marcos Sanso-Navarro
Author-X-Name-First: Marcos
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanso-Navarro
Author-Name: María Vera-Cabello
Author-X-Name-First: María
Author-X-Name-Last: Vera-Cabello
Title: The Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
Abstract: 
 This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided.Abbreviation: BMA- Bayesian Model Averaging; GLM- Generalized Linear Models
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 269-288
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1525935
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1525935
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sami H. Miaari
Author-X-Name-First: Sami H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Miaari
Title: An analysis of the public–private wage differential in the Palestinian labour market
Abstract: 
 This paper measures and analyzes the dynamics of the public–private wage differential in the West Bank and Gaza for the period before and during the ‘second Intifada’ using data from the Palestinian Labour Force Survey (PLFS) of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS). Because the distribution of workers’ individual characteristics, such as skills, and the ‘returns’ to these characteristics may differ across workers, the wage differential is decomposed into two components: an ‘endowment’ effect and a ‘returns’ effect. The results show that in the pre-Intifada period, the wage gap between the public and private sectors narrowed in both the West Bank and Gaza. However, a sharp increase is seen after the outbreak of the Intifada. Moreover, most of this increase comes from an increase in ‘returns’ to skills composition in the public sector, (unexplained effect), rather than a change in the skills composition of public sector workers, (explained effect). Using recent econometric quantile regression techniques, the analysis of the public–private sector wage gap from 1998 to 2006, at various points along the wage distribution, shows that the wage premium, (penalty), for the public sector varies across the distribution, being higher, (lower), at the lowest end of the wage distribution and decreasing (increasing) along the wage distribution; it becomes negative in the top percentiles.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 289-314
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1473137
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1473137
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Feifei Sun
Author-X-Name-First: Feifei
Author-X-Name-Last: Sun
Author-Name: Xiaohua Yu
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaohua
Author-X-Name-Last: Yu
Title: The Cost of Separatism: Economic Consequences of the 1987-1989 Tibetan Unrests
Abstract: 
 The separatism and its related activities bring enormous economic costs to a society, which is however difficult to be estimated, because it involves both observable ethnic conflicts and unobservable psychological resistance. This paper investigates the economic consequences of the 1987–89 Tibetan Unrests with the synthetic control method and finds that per capita GDP in Tibet might be 27% higher for the period from 1988 to 2007 if the unrests had not happened. In addition, we implement several ‘placebo studies’ and assess the threats to the validity of causal inference to confirm the robustness of this study.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 315-340
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1556866
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1556866
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sanna Nurmikko-Metsola
Author-X-Name-First: Sanna
Author-X-Name-Last: Nurmikko-Metsola
Title: Repression and Long-term Political Leadership
Abstract: 
 This paper develops a model where an incumbent may try to bribe the security forces to repress the political opposition in order to improve his/her chances of winning the elections. Such situations can be demonstrated by the cases of Cambodia, Uganda and Zimbabwe where the political leadership has used repression in and around the election times. In a collusive equilibrium, the security forces produce violence and the leader responds by giving a bribe to the former, this pair of actions taking place in each period. A collusive equilibrium exists when the bribe that a leader is prepared to pay is at least as large as the bribe that the security forces are willing to accept. We find that a harsher expected punishment (e.g. a longer prison sentence) will improve an incumbent’s incentives to collude. In contrast, security forces expecting a harsher punishment will be less likely to repress. Furthermore, we discuss the circumstances under which windfall revenue (e.g. foreign aid, resource rents) may contribute to violence and when it may prevent it.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 341-360
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1472999
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1472999
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:3:p:341-360




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yingying Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Yingying
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Chi Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Title: Is Defense Spending Inflationary? Time–frequency Evidence from China
Abstract: 
 This study examines the nexus between the defense spending growth rate and inflation to test whether defense spending is inflationary in China, particularly in times of peace. Using wavelet analysis, we find that the linkage between the defense spending growth rate and inflation changes over time and across frequencies. We provide evidence supporting negative leading effects of inflation on the defense spending growth rate in certain periods across various frequencies. The results illustrate that the relationship is stronger at the short- to medium-term horizon of less than eight years than it is in the long term. No positive leading effect of defense spending on inflation is demonstrated, showing that defense spending is not inflationary in China. The results indicate that inflation lowers the defense spending growth rate at short and medium scales, particularly in peace time. This study provides new insights into the nexus between defense spending and inflation and emphasizes that such a correlation has time and frequency features. Meanwhile, given that there is little evidence supporting the idea that defense spending is inflationary, a moderate increase in defense spending will not damage price stability in China.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 361-375
Issue: 3
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1457197
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1457197
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:3:p:361-375




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khusrav Gaibulloev
Author-X-Name-First: Khusrav
Author-X-Name-Last: Gaibulloev
Author-Name: Christos Kollias
Author-X-Name-First: Christos
Author-X-Name-Last: Kollias
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon
Title: Defence and Peace Economics: The Third Decade in Retrospect
Abstract: 
 Keeping with the established tradition in our journal, this paper reviews and surveys the last decade, that is volumes 21–30. It offers an overview of the thematic coverage of the papers published in Defence and Peace Economics and the changes that have occurred, points to existing gaps in the defence economics literature and possible future directions in the research agenda of this growing and vibrant field.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 377-386
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1761221
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1761221
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:377-386




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel G. Arce
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce
Title: On the Calculus of Counterterror Policy
Abstract: 
 In democratic societies, elections can act as a referendum on politicians’ counterterror policy. At the same time, counterterror policy is conducted under conditions of asymmetric information because the government is better informed about the nature of the threat than is the public. Using a hybrid signaling model, this paper characterizes counterterror policy in terms of its instrumental efficacy against terrorists, and also non-instrumental considerations such as the electoral consequences of policy failures. In addition, the equilibria capture the difficulties that voters have in assessing the appropriateness of policy in the absence of terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 387-399
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1649522
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1649522
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:387-399




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wukki Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Wukki
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: NATO at 70: Pledges, Free Riding, and Benefit-Burden Concordance
Abstract: 
 For 2011–2017, this paper revisits NATO burden sharing in light of recent developments and pledges to bolster members’ defense shares of GDP to 2%. Russian nationalism, enhanced transnational terrorism, and intrastate conflicts are apt to increase the publicness of NATO defense spending over the last eight years. When NATO allies’ defense shares of GDP are correlated with their GDP ranks, there is clear evidence of the exploitation of the large, rich allies by the small, poor allies, indicative of allies sharing purely public defense spending since 2011. Such exploitation and free riding has rarely been seen after 1967. In addition, there is an absence of concordance between NATO allies’ defense burdens and their derived benefit shares, consistent with greater defense publicness. Finally, we find further proof of exploitation and free riding for a broad-based measure of security spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 400-413
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1640937
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1640937
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:400-413




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ron P. Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Ron P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Debt, Deficits and Defence: The UK Experience 1700-2016
Abstract: 
 Military spending associated with wars has been a major cause of government deficits and debt financing. This paper looks at the association between debt and defence spending in the UK over the last three centuries. The paper reviews the history, discusses the theory and provides some estimates of the effect of variations in military expenditure on debt. The association tends to be quite close and the effect of the change in the share of military spending in GDP on the debt–GDP ratio is quite stable.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 414-422
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1710996
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1710996
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio d’Agostino
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: d’Agostino
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Author-Name: Marco Lorusso
Author-X-Name-First: Marco
Author-X-Name-Last: Lorusso
Author-Name: Luca Pieroni
Author-X-Name-First: Luca
Author-X-Name-Last: Pieroni
Title: Military Spending, Corruption, Persistence and Long Run Growth
Abstract: 
 This paper contributes to the analysis of the impact of military spending and corruption on economic growth, by considering not only the political dimension of corruption, distorting the allocation of resources to sectors, but also the impact on the efficiency of the bureaucratic environment. It does this by developing the model of Mauro (2004) in the context of an endogenous growth model to deal with corruption in the defence sector. It then uses data from the International Country Risk Guide to produce a novel measure of corruption that combines corruption within the political system, institutional strength, quality of bureaucracy and the degree of military participation in the country and estimates the model for a large panel of countries. The results suggest that both military spending (as a share of total government spending) and corruption have significant negative long run effects on output. As the model also suggests that multiple equilibria can exist, a comparison is made between high and low corruption groups of countries and clear differences are indeed found. This suggests that effort is needed to encourage and coerce high corruption and military spending countries, but low corruption and military spending countries are likely to need little attention.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 423-433
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1751503
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1751503
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:423-433




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Keith Hartley
Author-X-Name-First: Keith
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley
Title: Rising Costs: Augustine Revisited
Abstract: 
 Rising military equipment costs were famously identified by Norman Augustine with forecasts of a single aircraft air force by 2054. This paper presents and analyses an original data set for UK military aircraft. It provides evidence on cost escalation for various UK aircraft types comprising fighter/strike, bombers, military transports, maritime patrol aircraft, helicopters, trainers and civil aircraft. Continued cost escalation is identified for almost all types but with different cost escalation factors. It is concluded that the specific Augustine hypothesis of costs rising by a factor of four every 10 years might be an under-estimate.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 434-442
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1725849
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1725849
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:434-442




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer
Author-Name: Charles H. Anderton
Author-X-Name-First: Charles H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Anderton
Title: Conflict and Peace Economics: Retrospective and Prospective Reflections on Concepts, Theories, and Data
Abstract: 
 In reviewing the sweep of the extant literature over the past century or so, we first define and present an overview and conceptual synthesis of the field of conflict economics with a special view toward the subfield of peace economics. We explain that standard textbook economics is a special case of conflict economics and discuss assumptions, subject matter, and interrelations between economics and conflict. We also briefly discuss the nature of the peace and security good, including transboundary and transgenerational aspects. Second, focusing on new research opportunities arising from behavioral, identity, and social network economics we identify entire branches of economic theory that have been little harvested as yet to help address important aspects of conflict and peace. We provide illustrative models, each tied to economics’ standard rational choice setup. Third, we reflect on the use of conflict-related datasets in empirical research, illustrated with examples pertaining to data validity, missing data, data merging, and data mining.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 443-465
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1739824
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1739824
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vasilis Zervos
Author-X-Name-First: Vasilis
Author-X-Name-Last: Zervos
Title: “The Economics of the Global Defence Industry”
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 466-467
Issue: 4
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1735695
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1735695
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:4:p:466-467




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thomas Apolte
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas
Author-X-Name-Last: Apolte
Title: I Hope I Die before I Get Old
Abstract: 
 We explore the supply side of the market for suicide attackers. While the strategic edge of suicide attacks for certain terrorist organizations has been thoroughly explored, the motivation of the suppliers remains quite mysterious. We develop a model of the supply of suicide attacks, the motivation of which is expressive but time inconsistent. The model implies terrorist organizations to provide a commitment device in exchange for the ‘services’ of those suicide attackers that do not suffer from any mental or physical burden of life. By contrast, suicide attackers that do suffer from some sufficiently severe burden of life are not reliant on any commitment device and should therefore be expected to more frequently act as lonesome-wolf attackers.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 469-484
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1582167
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1582167
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Niklas Potrafke
Author-X-Name-First: Niklas
Author-X-Name-Last: Potrafke
Title: Dragnet-Controls and Government Ideology
Abstract: 
 In many European countries established leftwing and rightwing parties have been threatened by policy convergence and, in turn, new populist parties that offer more polarized platforms. I investigate whether government ideology influences dragnet-controls – controls of persons conducted by the police without having any suspicion that the controlled person committed a crime. They took effect after the Schengen Agreement in 1995. I propose dragnet-controls to be a prime example of ideology-induced policies implemented by established parties. Dragnet-controls confine citizens’ liberties, but may help to detect criminals. Using data from the 16 German states over the period 1995–2017, I show that rightwing governments have been active in implementing dragnet-controls and leftwing governments have denied dragnet-controls since the mid 1990s. When evaluating how government/party ideology influences individual policies, previous econometric studies ignored initiatives in parliament. My study also considers initiatives in parliament. I conjecture that, since 2015, the rightwing CDU has used initiatives to introduce/extend dragnet-controls to also deal with the upcoming threat of rightwing populism. Future research should examine policy-differences between the established parties regarding more fine-grained policy measures also in other European countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 485-501
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1568147
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1568147
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francois Melese
Author-X-Name-First: Francois
Author-X-Name-Last: Melese
Title: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Bid Protests: A Representative Bidder Model
Abstract: 
 The goal of any procurement process is to obtain ‘value for money.’ Bid protest systems are intended to help. The U.S. Department of Defense, NATO, the EU, UN, OECD, and WTO, all authorize losing bidders to protest public procurements. The threat of a protest is meant to increase government accountability, and encourage vendor participation. An extensive legal and regulatory literature discusses intended benefits of protests, but is surprisingly silent about the costs. The goal of this study is to examine both costs and benefits. Military acquisition offers an illustration. The dual objective is to minimize corruption, and maximize competition. Sadly, protest systems can inadvertently discourage both. Moreover, past protests by defense companies have generated significant costs, and triggered dangerous delays of critical defense equipment, materiel, services, and supplies required for national security. The static, probabilistic, micro-economic, partial equilibrium, representative bidder model presented in this paper offers a cautionary tale for defense organizations, government agencies, countries, and international institutions that authorize bid protests. The model reveals multiple potential deficiencies of protest systems, and recommends analysis of portfolios of alternatives to eliminate fraud and favoritism, and increase competition, to improve procurement outcomes.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 502-516
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1557974
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1557974
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jakub Odehnal
Author-X-Name-First: Jakub
Author-X-Name-Last: Odehnal
Author-Name: Jiří Neubauer
Author-X-Name-First: Jiří
Author-X-Name-Last: Neubauer
Title: Economic, Security, and Political Determinants of Military Spending in NATO Countries
Abstract: 
 The article deals with an empirical investigation of the determinants of military expenditures of selected NATO countries. Economic, security, and political determinants were analysed by means of panel models. In order to analyse the economic environment as a determinant of military expenditure, the following variables were applied: Risk of Budget Balance, Risk of Foreign Debt, Risk of Inflation, Risk of GDP per Capita, Risk of GDP Growth, and a control variable, Risk of Current Account as a percentage of GDP. The following variables were employed for the security risk analysis: Terrorism, Cross Border Conflict, Ethnic Tension, and Foreign Pressures. A variable evaluating the Democratic Accountability and a control variable Government Stability were selected to analyse political risks. The results show serious inconsistencies in factors affecting the military expenditures of traditional and new NATO member countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 517-531
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1544440
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1544440
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hyung Min Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Hyung Min
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: Relationship between Economic Sanctions and Militarized Conflict Focusing on Reciprocal Causation
Abstract: 
 This research empirically examines the relationship between economic sanctions and militarized conflicts for the period 1945–2001. The collective security principles of the League of Nations (after WWI) and the United Nations (after WWII) are based on the sequential imposition of economic and militarized sanctions against states that violate international rules and regulations. A recent example is the international sanctions imposed on North Korea in response to its nuclear weapons testing and ballistic missile development. Theoretical arguments in the field of international relations suggest that economic sanctions lead to militarized tensions and conflicts among states. In this research, we argue that the relationship between economic sanctions and military conflict is two-way (i.e. sanctions cause conflict, and conflict causes sanctions) rather than one-way. Using sanctions data (Threat and Imposition of Sanctions v4.0) and conflict data (Correlates of War Militarized Interstate Disputes v4.2; International Crisis Behavior v12), we find that the relationship is mutually causative. The involvement of economic sanctions causes the onset of militarized conflict, and vice versa.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 532-549
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1537387
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1537387
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet Huseyin
Author-X-Name-Last: Bilgin
Author-Name: Giray Gozgor
Author-X-Name-First: Giray
Author-X-Name-Last: Gozgor
Author-Name: Gokhan Karabulut
Author-X-Name-First: Gokhan
Author-X-Name-Last: Karabulut
Title: How Do Geopolitical Risks Affect Government Investment? An Empirical Investigation
Abstract: 
 The paper examines the effects of geopolitical risks, measured by a new index for geopolitical risk, on general government investment (gross fixed capital formation). It uses panel data for 18 countries for the period from 1985 to 2015. Using panel fixed-effects and the corrected least squares dummy variable estimators, results indicate that geopolitical risks seem to exert a positive effect on government investment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 550-564
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1513620
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1513620
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chiwei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chiwei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Yingying Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Yingying
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Hsu Ling Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Hsu Ling
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Author-Name: Oana-Ramona Lobont
Author-X-Name-First: Oana-Ramona
Author-X-Name-Last: Lobont
Author-Name: Zhixin Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Zhixin
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Title: Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test
Abstract: 
 This study examines the causal nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in China using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and rolling-window estimation. The full-sample result indicates a positive bidirectional causality between economic growth and defense expenditure, suggesting that more defense spending increases economic growth, and vice versa. By adopting a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies that the causality changes over time. We find significant positive short-run causality running from economic growth to defense expenditure in most of the time investigated, thus implying that economic growth stimulates defense expenditure. However, large-scale disarmaments break such positive linkage. Conversely, both positive and negative effects of defense expenditure on economic growth are demonstrated, showing that more defense spending has ambiguous effect on economy. Consequently, economic growth mainly drives defense expenditure rather than the other way around. The impact of defense expenditure in China on national economy is affected by multiplier effect and crowding-out effect as well as institutional factors.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 565-582
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1505583
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1505583
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dejan Stojković
Author-X-Name-First: Dejan
Author-X-Name-Last: Stojković
Author-Name: Miroslav Glišić
Author-X-Name-First: Miroslav
Author-X-Name-Last: Glišić
Title: Serbia’s Military Neutrality: Is It Economically Beneficial?
Abstract: 
 This paper discusses neutrality as a changing concept in international relations; the origin and characteristics of Serbia’s military neutrality; as well as the country’s general economic background and its defence spending. The paper also compares Serbian defence expenditure with the defence expenditure of the European members of the North American Treaty Organisation (NATO), members of the Eurasian and Russia-based Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and traditionally neutral countries in Europe. The paper explores how Serbia’s current policy of military neutrality, while maintaining operational links with other military organisations in Europe, has had a positive impact on the Serbian economy in general.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 583-599
Issue: 5
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1547952
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1547952
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:5:p:583-599




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: J. Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Author-Name: Ron P. Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Ron P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth
Abstract: 
 This paper considers the issues involved in estimating the effect of military expenditure on growth and the reasons for the lack of consensus in the literature. It briefly reviews the economic theory, emphasising the difficult identification issues involved in determining the interaction between military expenditure and output and discusses econometric methods for panels. It then takes advantage of the extended SIPRI military spending to construct a relatively large balanced panel of countries for the period 1960–2014. Rather than the usual focus on the direct relation between military spending on growth, it focusses upon the investment channel. It provides estimates of various models examining the interaction between the three variables and finds that the data do not suggest any strong relations between military expenditure and either investment or growth. This is not unexpected given the theoretical and econometric problems identified.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 601-614
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1636182
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1636182
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:601-614




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shakoor Ahmed
Author-X-Name-First: Shakoor
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed
Author-Name: Khorshed Alam
Author-X-Name-First: Khorshed
Author-X-Name-Last: Alam
Author-Name: Afzalur Rashid
Author-X-Name-First: Afzalur
Author-X-Name-Last: Rashid
Author-Name: Jeff Gow
Author-X-Name-First: Jeff
Author-X-Name-Last: Gow
Title: Militarisation, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in Myanmar
Abstract: 
 The cointegration and causal relationships amongst militarisation, energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and economic growth in Myanmar are investigated for the period of 1975–2014. Myanmar was governed by a military regime until 2011 with high levels of military expenditure. This study adopted an extended neoclassical production function framework utilising the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the causal relationships. Estimation showed that a 1% increase in military expenditure led to a 0.63% decrease in GDP, whereas a 1% increase in energy consumption increased GDP by 4% in the long run. The bootstrap-corrected causality test located bidirectional causality between energy consumption and CO2 emissions and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption. Policy recommendations promoting Myanmar’s economic growth include reducing military spending which would contribute to a reduction in CO2 emissions and encourage efficient energy consumption.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 615-641
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1560566
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1560566
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Martí Sempere
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Martí Sempere
Title: A Review of Market Failures in the Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 The First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics states that, under certain conditions, markets are able to supply goods and services in a way that is Pareto efficient. However, these stringent conditions are not satisfied in practice, giving way to the inefficient allocation of resources by market agents for such supply and a welfare loss. This article describes the reasons that impede the fulfilment of such conditions in the defence industrial market and the impact of such fact in the allocation process. It also discusses interventions and arrangements for palliating these market failures and for increasing the overall allocational efficiency.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 642-658
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1581981
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1581981
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:642-658




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marco Pelliccia
Author-X-Name-First: Marco
Author-X-Name-Last: Pelliccia
Title: Decentralized Defence of a (Directed) Network Structure
Abstract: 
 We model the decentralized defence choice of agents connected in a directed graph and exposed to an external threat. The network allows players to receive goods from one or more producers through directed paths. Each agent is endowed with a finite and divisible defence resource that can be allocated to their own security or to that of their peers. The external threat is represented by either a random attack on one of the nodes or by an intelligent attacker who aims to maximize the flow-disruption by seeking to destroy one node. We show that under certain conditions a decentralized defence allocation is efficient when we assume the attacker to be strategic: a centralized allocation of defence resources which minimizes the flow-disruption coincides with a decentralized equilibrium allocation. On the other hand, when we assume a random attack, the decentralized allocation is likely to diverge from the central planner’s allocation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 659-676
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1587679
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1587679
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:659-676




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hamid E. Ali
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ali
Author-Name: Sakiru Adebola Solarin
Author-X-Name-First: Sakiru Adebola
Author-X-Name-Last: Solarin
Title: Military Spending, Corruption, and the Welfare Consequences
Abstract: 
 In pursuit of good governance and better allocation of resources, corruption is of interest to policymakers and citizens alike. Using panel data from 1996 to 2016 for 59 countries, the aim of this paper is to examine the relation between military spending and corruption. Taking the advantage of GMM method, we have shown across different measures of military spending, countries with higher levels of corruption tend to exhibit higher levels of military expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 677-691
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1567181
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1567181
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:677-691




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juncal Cunado
Author-X-Name-First: Juncal
Author-X-Name-Last: Cunado
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta
Author-Name: Chi Keung Marco Lau
Author-X-Name-First: Chi Keung Marco
Author-X-Name-Last: Lau
Author-Name: Xin Sheng
Author-X-Name-First: Xin
Author-X-Name-Last: Sheng
Title: Time-Varying Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Oil Prices
Abstract: 
 This paper analyses the dynamic impact of geopolitical risks (GPRs) on real oil returns for the period February 1974 to August 2017, using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive (TVP-SVAR) model. Besides the two variables of concern, the model also includes growth in world oil production, global economic activity (to capture oil-demand), and world stock returns. We show that GPRs (based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions), in general, has a significant negative impact on oil returns, primarily due to the decline in oil demand captured by the global economic activity. Our results, thus, highlight the risk of associating all GPRs with oil supply shocks driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and hence, ending up suggesting that higher GPRs drive up oil prices.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 692-706
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2018.1563854
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:692-706




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jong-Eun Lee
Author-X-Name-First: Jong-Eun
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee
Title: Geopolitical Risks in the Post-Cold War Era: Make America Great Again Can Be Make the World Great Again
Abstract: 
 This study explores the post-Cold War era by investigating geopolitical risks (GPRs) from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula. Geopolitics is a fleeting reality and is a matter of a few top decision makers while ordinary people catch a glimpse of it by the press. Due to the relative inaccessibility of key information, geopolitics is hard to study even if it is a crucial element to shape our era. To fill the gap, we adopt a copula approach to surmise a joint probability distribution between the GPR in the world and several countries. This method could capture tail dependence. The highest upper tail dependence with the world’s GPR has been that of Israel; as one moves from the Cold War to the post-Cold War period, the increasing cases of upper tail dependence are China, Korea, Russia, and Ukraine while decreasing cases are Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. It implies that the world’s flashpoints might have been shifting from the Middle East to Asia as our eras have gone through the Cold War and the post-Cold War periods. Seemingly self-centered Make America Great Again could be Make the World Great Again. The best is yet to come.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 707-720
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1571825
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1571825
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:6:p:707-720




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rafi Amir-ud-Din
Author-X-Name-First: Rafi
Author-X-Name-Last: Amir-ud-Din
Author-Name: Fatima Waqi Sajjad
Author-X-Name-First: Fatima
Author-X-Name-Last: Waqi Sajjad
Author-Name: Shazia Aziz
Author-X-Name-First: Shazia
Author-X-Name-Last: Aziz
Title: Revisiting Arms Race between India and Pakistan: A Case of Asymmetric Causal Relationship of Military Expenditures
Abstract: 
 Pakistan and India have been arch-enemies since their independence from the British Rule. There have been over four full-fledged armed conflicts, countless border skirmishes and cross-border ceasefire violations between these neighbouring countries. Their mutual relationships have often nosedived to a point where the nuclear conflagration seemed real possibility. While India is among the five largest military spenders in the world, Pakistan spends a disproportionately larger share of its GDP on defence to neutralize the Indian military advantage. While Pakistan's military expenditure is largely India-specific, it is not clear if the reverse is also true. Therefore, this study explores if the military expenditure of India and Pakistan are causally associated with each other or the arms race is asymmetric. Using the maximum entropy bootstrapping method and a series of robustness checks, we find that while military expenditure of Pakistan is shaped by the Indian military expenditure, the military expenditure in India is not Pakistan-specific. This study has important policy implications for the region because Pakistan may explore alternative strategic relationships with India. A revision of strategic relationship between the two South Asian neighbours may help in the resolution of the long-standing political, social and economic problems of both the countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 721-741
Issue: 6
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1624334
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1624334
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sami H. Miaari
Author-X-Name-First: Sami H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Miaari
Author-Name: Massimiliano Calì
Author-X-Name-First: Massimiliano
Author-X-Name-Last: Calì
Title: Introduction to the Special Issue “Political Economic Perspectives of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Abstract: 
 The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the worldâ€™s most protracted contemporary conflict and one which has gained international prominence throughout the years. As a result of the Six Days War in 1967, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip fell under Israeli control. The conflict has evolved through ebbs and flows of violence including two Palestinian uprising against Israeli control (the First and Second Intifada). These have led to tens of thousands of Palestinian and thousands of Israeli victims.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 887-891
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1827359
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1827359
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:887-891




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alexei Abrahams
Author-X-Name-First: Alexei
Author-X-Name-Last: Abrahams
Title: Monopolization of Violence in the Palestinian Struggle
Abstract: 
 Palestinians currently find themselves involved in two conflicts: an external one with the state of Israel, and an internal one with the leadership of the Palestinian national movement itself. In this essay, we argue that violence is overly monopolized in both conflicts. Firstly, Israel can safely ignore the peace process and renege on political concessions as long as Palestinians lack a credible militant threat. This threat, in turn, has been neutralized in large part by the Palestinian Authority (PA) itself, which has offered Israel increasingly effective security cooperation over the past decade. We argue that the PA’s decision to deepen security cooperation with Israel – in spite of its unpopularity among Palestinians – results from its own territorial monopolies on violence, which render it unaccountable to its constituents. Only by reintroducing a credible, latent threat of political-militant competitors to the PA will Palestinians be able to regain bargaining leverage over their own leadership, restore conditionality to their security cooperation with Israel, and put the peace process back on course.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 892-903
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1724398
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1724398
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:892-903




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel V. Konyukhovskiy
Author-X-Name-First: Pavel V.
Author-X-Name-Last: Konyukhovskiy
Author-Name: Theocharis Grigoriadis
Author-X-Name-First: Theocharis
Author-X-Name-Last: Grigoriadis
Title: Proxy Wars & the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we analyze the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by proposing a proxy war model, where conflict lasts longer, but it is less costly than direct military confrontation. In proxy wars, Nash equilibria are realizable, but not always sustainable in the long-run. The consolidation level of the double principal–agent relationship predicts the continuation of conflict and thus the emergence of peace. As our model suggests, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is likely to remain irresolvable, as long as the Palestinians do not have a principal that is willing to provide continuous and positive levels of conflict involvement.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 904-926
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1690942
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1690942
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yoav Kapshuk
Author-X-Name-First: Yoav
Author-X-Name-Last: Kapshuk
Title: Ashkenazim and Mizrahim in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: The Role of Israel’s Economic Liberalization and Globalization
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the mechanisms which drive the different political attitudes of Israel’s two major Jewish groups – the Ashkenazim and the Mizrahim – vis-à-vis the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in the 1990s. The study argues that the economic liberalization reforms of the 1980s along with the subsequent Israel’s integration with the global economy are key drivers of the two groups’ opposing attitudes vis-à-vis the peace process. These processes benefited mainly the business classes, who are dominated by the Ashkenazim (originating from Europe). It was such benefit that drove Ashkenazim’s support for the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, which was seen as instrumental to the process of Israel’s integration with the global economy. Conversely, the same economic processes likely hurt lower-class members of Israeli Jewish society, most of whom are Mizrahim (originating from Muslim countries). In this context the settlements in the West Bank and Gaza provided them with an alternative source of welfare to buffer the negative impacts of the integration process. As a result most of the Mizrahim population opposed any peace deal that included the evacuation of settlements. Moreover, Mizrahim’s opposition to Oslo was strengthened by the association of Oslo with Israel’s global integration, which some evidence suggests mainly benefited the business classes.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 927-938
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1801159
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1801159
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amit Loewenthal
Author-X-Name-First: Amit
Author-X-Name-Last: Loewenthal
Author-Name: Sami H. Miaari
Author-X-Name-First: Sami H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Miaari
Title: Male-Female Wage Differential in the West Bank: A Gender-Based Analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Abstract: 
 This paper studies the gender wage differential in the Palestinian labor market of the West Bank before, during, and in the aftermath of the second Intifada. We combine data on the Palestinian labor force, politically motivated fatalities of Palestinians, and movement restrictions in the West Bank, in order to quantify the effect of political violence on the gender wage gap. We find that political violence during the second Intifada decreased the gender wage gap. We also observe a long-term trend of more women entering the labor force, especially in middle-income occupations where there is an existing large share of female employees. Political violence did not seem to reverse or hurt that trend. We provide suggestive evidence that the reduction in the wage gap is due to the increased supply of low-skilled men, who previously worked in Israel and entered the local labor market due to the Intifada.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 939-956
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1768340
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1768340
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marie-Claire Robitaille
Author-X-Name-First: Marie-Claire
Author-X-Name-Last: Robitaille
Title: Maritime Piracy and International Trade
Abstract: 
 Maritime piracy is a serious threat to international trade. Indeed, using Instrumental Variable Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (IV-PPML) and PPML gravity models and using data on maritime distance and on piracy attacks over the period 2000–2016, it is estimated that an increase by 10 piracy attacks on the shortest maritime trade route between a country-pair results in a decrease in bilateral trade’s value by 2.8%. The impact, at 1.5%, is much smaller if the endogeneity of piracy attacks is not controlled for. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that successful attacks, attacks that involve violence, or attacks that target cargo are particularly detrimental to trade. This paper contributes to the literature by being the first to look at: non-Somali piracy attacks, different commodity groups, and various forms of attacks. This paper also proposes the use of maritime distance, instead of the commonly used great-circle distance. Finally, it offers a new instrumental variable for piracy attacks, namely, the sum of the square of the highest security apparatus index among countries in the vicinity of each vital chokepoint crossed by a ship travelling on the shortest maritime trade route between a country-pair, in a given year.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 957-974
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1627511
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1627511
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:957-974




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: As’Ad Ghanem
Author-X-Name-First: As’Ad
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghanem
Title: The Impact of Incentives for Reconciliation in the Holy City – How International Aid for the Palestinians Contributed to the Expanding of Israeli Control over East Jerusalem
Abstract: 
 This article analyses the implications of international aid for the failure of Palestinian-Israeli reconciliation in Jerusalem. Donors were motivated to contribute to efforts to reach a sustainable Palestinian-Israeli peace to be based on Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. In this article the main argument is that in practice, due to political considerations, international aid at least partially harmed the peace process and helped Israel enhance its control over East Jerusalem and harmed the efforts to reach a reconciliation in the holy city.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 975-989
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1762315
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1762315
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:975-989




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jerry Nickelsburg
Author-X-Name-First: Jerry
Author-X-Name-Last: Nickelsburg
Title: Employment Dynamics in Local Labor Markets: Evidence from U.S. Post Cold War Base Closures
Abstract: 
 Local labor market adjustment to exogenous demand changes is studied in the context of the closure of U.S. military bases between 1991 and 1999. This post Cold War episode provides for a natural experiment with evidence to inform policy on the labor market impact of defense spending cycles. The results are consistent with both search and declining sector wage rigidity increasing adjustment costs and are generally not consistent with market intervention theories of long duration unemployment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 990-1005
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1600785
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1600785
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:990-1005




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carren Pindiriri
Author-X-Name-First: Carren
Author-X-Name-Last: Pindiriri
Title: Taking Stock of the Impact of Sanctions on Livelihoods and Poverty in Zimbabwe
Abstract: 
 This article draws on the established empirical literature to assess the impact of United States sanctions on livelihoods and poverty in Zimbabwe. Using time-series data spanning from 1980 to 2015, the findings from a linear specification in sanctions duration show no evidence to support the negative impact of sanctions on formal employment and poverty. The results, however, portray a quadratic relationship between sanctions duration and livelihoods. Sanctions reduced formal employment during the initial stages but the negative relationship changed over time. Subsequently, informality increased during the sanctions period. Similarly, the relationship between sanctions duration and poverty is also non-linear. The turning point of the poverty quadratic curve coincides with the implementation of indigenization policy. Indigenization policy magnified sanctions’ negative impact instead of offsetting the impact. In this view, the government should consider addressing the indigenization policy which it has control over while at the same time continue re-engaging USA for the removal of sanctions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1006-1020
Issue: 8
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1661177
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1661177
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:8:p:1006-1020




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Johannes Blum
Author-X-Name-First: Johannes
Author-X-Name-Last: Blum
Author-Name: Niklas Potrafke
Author-X-Name-First: Niklas
Author-X-Name-Last: Potrafke
Title: Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Target
Abstract: 
 We examine whether changes of government influence compliance with international agreements. We investigate compliance with the NATO two percent target to which all NATO countries committed themselves during the NATO summit in Wales in 2014. The dataset includes the military expenditure by NATO countries over the period 2010–2018. The results suggest that countries that do not (yet) comply with the two percent target have smaller growth rates in military expenditure relative to GDP when they experienced a large change of government, e.g. a change from a rightwing to a leftwing government, than countries that did not experience such a large change of government since the NATO summit in 2014. Countries that experienced a large change of government are, thus, less likely to comply with the two percent target. Future research should examine the credibility problem of national governments in other international agreements too.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 743-761
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1575141
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1575141
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Erik M. Fay
Author-X-Name-First: Erik M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Fay
Title: Individual and Contextual Influences on Public Support for Military Spending in NATO
Abstract: 
 What factors at the individual and country levels influence public support for increased levels of military spending and related foreign policy preferences in NATO countries? Specifically, what individual-level characteristics (e.g., view of NATO) are associated with support for increasing military spending within the NATO alliance, and what country characteristics are associated with shifts in public opinion due to changes in the contextual environment within each country (e.g., military spending/economic growth)? Answers to these questions fill an important gap in the literature by investigating the domestic constraints that influence a country’s response to questions of ‘burden-sharing’ and free riding within NATO. This study examines how citizens’ preferences respond to their domestic political environment, and whether this behavior aligns with the ‘guns versus butter’ trade-off. Findings from a multilevel model combining country-level data with survey data from 13 NATO member countries between 2004–2012 suggest that individuals who view NATO as essential are consistently more likely to support increases in military spending, but changes in the contextual environment, such as high levels of military spending or high levels of economic growth, alter the preferences of individuals in a manner that follows what is known about the trade-offs citizens make between ‘guns versus butter.’
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 762-785
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1668236
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1668236
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:7:p:762-785




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dripto Bakshi
Author-X-Name-First: Dripto
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakshi
Author-Name: Indraneel Dasgupta
Author-X-Name-First: Indraneel
Author-X-Name-Last: Dasgupta
Title: Identity Conflict with Cross-Border Spillovers
Abstract: 
 We model simultaneous inter and within identity-group conflict in two territories connected by cross-territorial spillovers. Within each territory, two groups contest the division of a group-specific public good, and all members contest the division of group income. Each group has a cross-border affiliate. Greater success (share) of its affiliate ‘spills over’ into higher efficiency of a group in inter-group conflict. We find that inter-group and total conflict move together within a territory, while within-group conflict and output move in the opposite direction. A unilateral increase in cross-border spillover reduces inter-group conflict in the source territory but increases it in the destination; an equi-proportionate bilateral increase affects conflict in a non-monotone manner. Population increase in a territory, a larger minority, weaker property rights, higher relative labour productivity of the majority, may all increase inter-group conflict in the other territory. Community-neutral growth in labour productivity within a territory reduces inter-group conflict therein.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 786-809
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1614279
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1614279
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:7:p:786-809




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Joseph J. Capuno
Author-X-Name-First: Joseph J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Capuno
Title: Probing Conflict Contagion and Casualties in Mindanao, Philippines
Abstract: 
 Subnational and local hostilities are regarded as a distinguishing feature of Asian conflicts. Like the violent conflicts in Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, those in Mindanao, Philippines are noted for their persistence and enormous welfare and economic costs. Extending recent empirical studies on Asian conflicts, here we examine the importance of spatial contagion as a factor behind the local incidence of conflicts and the associated casualties in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. Estimating negative binomial regression models on a panel of cities and municipalities for period 2011–2016, we find strong evidence of contagion: both the frequency of violent hostilities and their related casualties in a locality are affected by past conflicts, especially those related to crime, in its contiguous neighbors. No such effect is found in the placebo tests involving random neighbors in the same province, thus ruling out that the estimated contagion effects is just a correlated reaction to a common environment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 810-829
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1608742
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1608742
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Ben-Gad
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Ben-Gad
Author-Name: Yakov Ben-Haim
Author-X-Name-First: Yakov
Author-X-Name-Last: Ben-Haim
Author-Name: Dan Peled
Author-X-Name-First: Dan
Author-X-Name-Last: Peled
Title: Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach
Abstract: 
 We apply the information gap approach to resource allocation under Knightian (non-probabilistic) uncertainty in order to study how best to allocate public resources between competing defence measures. We demonstrate that when determining the level and composition of defence spending in an environment of extreme uncertainty vis-a-vis the likelihood of armed conflict and its outcomes, robust-satisficing-expected utility will usually be preferable to expected utility maximisation. Moreover, our analysis suggests that in environments with unreliable information about threats to national security and their consequences, a desire for robustness to model misspecification in the decision-making process will imply greater expenditure on certain types of defence measures at the expense of others. Our results also provide a positivist explanation of how governments seem to allocate security expenditures in practice.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 830-850
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1625518
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1625518
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:7:p:830-850




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Richard A. I. Johnson
Author-X-Name-First: Richard A. I.
Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson
Title: Decision-Making in the Arms of a Dependent Relationship: Explaining Shifts in Importer Acquisition Patterns of Major Weapon Systems, 1955–2007
Abstract: 
 Arms dependency is typically framed as a security issue that states seek to avoid. Dependency creates an opportunity for an exporter to attempt to exert influence over the importer’s foreign and domestic policy. However, the arms trade is a trade and influence attempts to create economic costs for exporters by damaging relationships with current and potential customers. Thus, heavily dependent states do not necessarily need to change suppliers to avoid the threat. Additionally, as arms transfers are a signal of political support, dependency may be a sign of a mutually beneficial relationship rather than one that is potentially dangerous. This article evaluates these arguments using logistic regression models to evaluate changes in suppliers of major weapons systems. It finds that the relationship between dependence and arms transfers is more complex than previously argued where the nature of the relationship depends both on the type of exporter and the type of arm being exported.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 851-868
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1618651
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1618651
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Leandro Bolzan De Rezende
Author-X-Name-First: Leandro Bolzan
Author-X-Name-Last: De Rezende
Author-Name: Paul Blackwell
Author-X-Name-First: Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Blackwell
Title: The Brazilian National Defence Strategy: Defence Expenditure Choices and Military Power
Abstract: 
 In the last decades, Brazil has become a regional military and economic power in South America, accounting in 2017 for the largest defence budget in the region, the eleventh defence expenditure in the world, and almost 60% of South American GDP. The enactment of the National Defence Policy resulted in an increase in defence expenditure in Brazil that was primarily focused on developing and buying modern equipment and paying better salaries. The policy was implemented during three investment cycles that began with off-the-shelf acquisitions and moved to the execution of defence programmes aiming to develop indigenous technologies, substituting imports on the way. Despite the effort, we argue that the most likely scenario is that the achievement of the vision established in the National Defence Policy will be compromised, and that constant delays caused by the expenditure constraints might result in the delivery of outdated technologies and weapon systems, keeping a never-ending technological gap.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 869-884
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1588030
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1588030
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. Craig Stone
Author-X-Name-First: J. Craig
Author-X-Name-Last: Stone
Title: ‘The Political Economy of Defence’
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 885-886
Issue: 7
Volume: 31
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1815146
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1815146
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:7:p:885-886




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wukki Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Wukki
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Dong Li
Author-X-Name-First: Dong
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: Resident Terrorist Groups, Military Aid, and Moral Hazard: Further Empirical Analysis
Abstract: 
 This paper revisits moral hazard associated with military aid given to host countries to eliminate their resident terrorist groups. This conflict aid presents recipient countries with perverse incentives because the aid ends once resident groups are removed. In the case of US aid recipients, the longevity of resident terrorist groups rose dramatically. The current article improves on the empirics of the pioneering article by showing that the moral-hazard concerns extend to other major donors – the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Additionally, military assistance given by a collective of countries to host countries greatly reduces the moral hazard but does not eliminate it. Moreover, policy alignment or affinity between a major donor and the host aid-recipient country does not generally augment resident terrorist groups’ survival, except marginally for the United States, when other sources of military aid are allowed. We introduce other empirical and conceptual innovations for analyzing military-aid-induced moral hazard.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-17
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1709783
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1709783
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:1:p:1-17




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amitai Gilad
Author-X-Name-First: Amitai
Author-X-Name-Last: Gilad
Author-Name: Eyal Pecht
Author-X-Name-First: Eyal
Author-X-Name-Last: Pecht
Author-Name: Asher Tishler
Author-X-Name-First: Asher
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler
Title: Intelligence, Cyberspace, and National Security
Abstract: 
 This study evaluates military intelligence as the process of data collection and knowledge development and assessment for decision-making by the military and other governmental agencies. We argue that dominance in modern warfare is enabled by human and technological intelligence that uncovers the rivals’ capabilities and intentions, increases the effectiveness of the country’s own weapon systems, and facilitates the development of high-quality defense systems. Hence, gathering and evaluating intelligence is essential for countries involved in conflict or exposed to terror threats. We focus here on the strategic and tactical implications of intelligence in the context of an arms and intelligence race between two rivals. We present and assess models that show how security agencies in countries in a state of conflict (with other countries and/or non-country entities) should invest in developing their own intelligence capabilities to ensure adequate military (security) capabilities, national security, and welfare. Since advanced cyber attackers can infiltrate almost all complex computer networks to gather intelligence (and/or cause other harms), we show how countries can establish procedures and determine the budgets to optimally allocate cyber-defense resources to prevent harmful cyber-attacks on the complex computer networks that manage their infrastructure, business, security, and government operations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 18-45
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1778966
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1778966
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonella Biscione
Author-X-Name-First: Antonella
Author-X-Name-Last: Biscione
Author-Name: Raul Caruso
Author-X-Name-First: Raul
Author-X-Name-Last: Caruso
Title: Military Expenditures and Income Inequality Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries (1990-2015)
Abstract: 
 This paper contributes to the literature on military spending by analyzing the relationship between military spending and income inequality in a panel of transition economies over the period 1990–2015. In particular, we exploit three different measures of military expenditures: (i) military spending in absolute terms; (ii) military expenditures per capita; (iii) military burden, namely the ratio between military expenditure and GDP. Findings highlight a positive relationship between military expenditures and income inequality captured by means of three different measures of inequality. Results are also confirmed after we performed a variety of robustness tests. Other results are worth noting and somehow puzzling. For example, military conscription appears to have a redistributional effect and when considering a non-linearity the results show that there could be a concave relationship between military spending and income inequality. In addition, when testing for the ‘crowding-out argument’ results show that expenditures for subsidies are negatively influenced by military spending so confirming the crowding-out argument but there is no significant evidence when considering education and health expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 46-67
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1661218
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1661218
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ricardo Laborda
Author-X-Name-First: Ricardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Laborda
Author-Name: Jose Olmo
Author-X-Name-First: Jose
Author-X-Name-Last: Olmo
Title: An Empirical Analysis of Terrorism and Stock Market Spillovers: The Case of Spain
Abstract: 
 This article assesses the spillover effects between terrorist activity and Spanish stock market returns for the period 1993–2017 . We construct a daily terror index that reflects the terrorist activity of different types of perpetrators: domestic terrorism (ETA) and international terrorism linked to Islamic extremism. Our static analysis shows that connectedness is important, as it explains about half of the forecast error variance; most of it is attributed to shocks from terrorist events on stock market return forecasts. Our dynamic analysis also uncovers an increase in spillover effects between the early period characterised by ETA terrorist attacks and the recent past characterised by Islamic terrorist attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 68-86
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1617601
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1617601
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dong-Jin Pyo
Author-X-Name-First: Dong-Jin
Author-X-Name-Last: Pyo
Title: Does Geopolitical Risk Matter? Evidence from South Korea
Abstract: 
 This study explores the impact of geopolitical events on the stock return behavior of inter-Korean economic cooperation-related firms depending on the North Korean regime. We document empirical evidence showing that cross-sectional stock return tends to react positively to positive geopolitical events under the current regime in North Korea (Kim Jong-un), whereas negative geopolitical events have limited impact. Conversely, we find that negative geopolitical events yielded more pronounced effects on the stock returns of related firms under the former regime (Kim Jong-il). In addition, this study investigates the role of geopolitical shock in the evolution of aggregate economic variables of South Korea using Caldara and Iacoviello’s (2018) geopolitical risk index. Geopolitical shock is found to yield no statistically meaningful impact on stock price index, industrial output, employment, or gross trade volume. Furthermore, aggregate stock market variables are found to be immune to geopolitical shock in South Korea. These results indicate that market participants estimate the escalation of geopolitical risk into full-scale war as unlikely.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 87-106
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1829937
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1829937
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chi-Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Kai-Hua Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Kai-Hua
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Author-Name: Oana-Ramona Lobonţ
Author-X-Name-First: Oana-Ramona
Author-X-Name-Last: Lobonţ
Author-Name: Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan
Author-X-Name-First: Nicoleta-Claudia
Author-X-Name-Last: Moldovan
Title: Does Optimal R&D Intensity Level Exist in Chinese Defense Enterprises?
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates whether there exists an optimal level of research and development (R&D) intensity, at which defense enterprises are able to maximize their market performance. The Panel Threshold Regression Model was applied to probe the link between R&D intensity and sales growth for defense listed enterprises, in China. The empirical results indicate that the Law of Gibrat does not hold and, unlimited input in R&D, does not guarantee positive paybacks. This may lead to the assumption that there is an optimal R&D intensity level in Chinese defense enterprises. Due to the fact that the defense industry has broken entrance barriers and considering the introduction of social capital into R&D activities, managers and top management should set more specific guidelines and provisional benchmarks to ensure effective R&D resource allocation in order to achieve maximum performance.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 107-124
Issue: 1
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1597464
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1597464
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sajjad F. Dizaji
Author-X-Name-First: Sajjad F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Dizaji
Author-Name: Mohammad R. Farzanegan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan
Title: Do Sanctions Constrain Military Spending of Iran?
Abstract: 
 Do sanctions reduce military spending in Iran? To answer this question, we use annual data from 1960 to 2017 and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. We show that an increase in the intensity of sanctions is associated with a larger decrease in military spending in both the short and the long run. Each level of increase in the intensity of sanctions with respect to our coding approach decreases military spending in the long run by approximately 33%, ceteris paribus. We also find that only the multilateral sanctions, in which the United States acts in conjunction with other countries to sanction Iran, have a statistically significant and negative impact on military spending of Iran in both the short and the long run. Multilateral sanctions reduce Iran’s military spending by approximately 77% in the long run, ceteris paribus. The results remain robust when controlling for other determinants of military spending such as gross domestic product (GDP), oil rents, trade openness, population, quality of political institutions, military expenditure of the Middle East region, non-military spending of government and the war period with Iraq.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 125-150
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1622059
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1622059
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lucie Béraud-Sudreau
Author-X-Name-First: Lucie
Author-X-Name-Last: Béraud-Sudreau
Author-Name: Meia Nouwens
Author-X-Name-First: Meia
Author-X-Name-Last: Nouwens
Title: Weighing Giants: Taking Stock of the Expansion of China’s Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 Despite China’s rise on the world stage and rapid improvements in the quality and quantity of its arms production, little is truly known about Chinese defence groups’ performance. The existing literature suffers from a significant gap: there has been no measure of how much the Chinese defence industry is worth financially, in comparison to other leading defence firms. There is also a dearth in detailed assessments of China’s defence-industrial and defence-innovation capacities. Therefore, this article seeks to provide reliable estimates of Chinese defence enterprises’ revenue derived from their military-related activities. In discussing our results, we also show that the current Chinese leadership’s defence-industry reforms specifically target self-identified shortcomings and in doing so, strives to bring Chinese defence companies to the top of the world’s defence-technological innovation standards. This will contribute to the debate on China’s defence-innovation capabilities and on the Chinese defence industry’s remaining weaknesses in that regard.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 151-177
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1632536
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1632536
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Armey
Author-X-Name-First: Laura
Author-X-Name-Last: Armey
Author-Name: Peter Berck
Author-X-Name-First: Peter
Author-X-Name-Last: Berck
Author-Name: Jonathan Lipow
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lipow
Title: Racial Selection in Deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan
Abstract: 
 The US Armed Forces officially desegregated in 1948. Over the following 70 years, the military has made great strides in promoting racial integration. We find evidence, however, that Black soldiers’ experience of military service still differs significantly from that of other racial and ethnic groups. Exploiting a database of administrative records for 100,000 Army personnel serving during the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, we find that Blacks were less likely than other service members to have deployed, or to face intense combat if deployed, during the early phases of the campaigns.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 178-192
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1685341
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1685341
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jennifer S. Holmes
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Holmes
Author-Name: Agustin Palao Mendizabal
Author-X-Name-First: Agustin Palao
Author-X-Name-Last: Mendizabal
Author-Name: David Saucedo De La Fuente
Author-X-Name-First: David Saucedo
Author-X-Name-Last: De La Fuente
Author-Name: Mercedez Callenes
Author-X-Name-First: Mercedez
Author-X-Name-Last: Callenes
Author-Name: Álvaro Cárdenas
Author-X-Name-First: Álvaro
Author-X-Name-Last: Cárdenas
Title: Paramilitary Violence in Colombia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Analysis
Abstract: 
 Although Colombia is well known for its persistent leftist guerrilla conflict, the country also suffers from paramilitary violence. This study examines the potential factors related to persistent paramilitary violence in the form of human rights violations. How has paramilitary activity, and its causes, changed over time? Why does it persist in some areas after Uribe’s demobilization process but not in others? We use multilevel modeling to explore the determinants of paramilitary human rights violations. A varied range of aspects potentially associated with the paramilitary presence at the municipal level for the period 2002–2015, such as state presence, resources, greed, grievances and conflict are analyzed. The study uses information about paramilitary human rights violations from the Centro de Investigación y Educación Popular (CINEP). Results suggest that the demobilization process reduced the initial paramilitary motivation to fight against leftist guerrilla. However, other factors such as coca cultivation or ranching remained significantly related to the paramilitary activity. The analysis at the municipal level provides clear warnings for continued violence cycles threatening any undergoing or future peace processes or demobilizations and calls for a more nuanced concept of state capacity to understand paramilitary violence.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 193-219
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1624067
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1624067
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Steven T. Zech
Author-X-Name-First: Steven T.
Author-X-Name-Last: Zech
Author-Name: Joshua Eastin
Author-X-Name-First: Joshua
Author-X-Name-Last: Eastin
Title: The Household Economics of Counterinsurgency
Abstract: 
 State security forces have been locked in an ongoing struggle with the Communist Party of the Philippines – New People’s Army (NPA) for nearly fifty years. Over the course of the conflict, thousands of civilians across generations have taken up arms and participated in the counterinsurgency campaign. Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units (CAFGU) and other pro-government militias have played a key auxiliary role in combatting the insurgency and providing community security. This article draws on survey and interview data collected from CAFGU participants to examine the factors that influence decisions to join, as well as their implications for sustained participation and counterinsurgency strategy. Existing research on joining armed groups recognizes how environmental conditions, group processes, and individual motives interact to help explain participation. We shift our focus to the realm of the household and highlight how considerations related to that site affect participation. Our findings suggest that the need to avoid economic disaster and ensure a secure subsistence can have a notable influence on decisions to enlist and individual experiences as CAFGU. These effects, in turn, have implications for how the Philippine government carries out its counterinsurgency.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 220-239
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1688591
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1688591
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ioannis Choulis
Author-X-Name-First: Ioannis
Author-X-Name-Last: Choulis
Author-Name: Zorzeta Bakaki
Author-X-Name-First: Zorzeta
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakaki
Author-Name: Tobias Böhmelt
Author-X-Name-First: Tobias
Author-X-Name-Last: Böhmelt
Title: Public Support for the Armed Forces: The Role of Conscription
Abstract: 
 How does conscription influence citizens’ support for the armed forces? We argue that conscription, more so than voluntary-recruitment systems, can reach out to and socialize larger segments of the society in line with the military’s values. This, in turn, induces more positive views of the armed forces. Using a unique data set comprising information for 34 European states in 1997–2017, we find robust evidence that countries with conscription-based recruitment tend to be characterized by higher levels of support for the military. This result greatly adds to the debate about the type of military-recruitment system countries should implement: abolishing compulsory military service is usually seen as increasing efficiency and performance; yet, a positive – and previously unknown – externality of conscription that we identify is a higher degree of support by the public, which is pivotal for, inter alia, defense-policy implementation, military interventions abroad, budget considerations, or the participation in military alliances.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 240-251
Issue: 2
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1709031
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1709031
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tommy Andersson
Author-X-Name-First: Tommy
Author-X-Name-Last: Andersson
Author-Name: Conan Mukherjee
Author-X-Name-First: Conan
Author-X-Name-Last: Mukherjee
Title: Seeking No War, Achieving No Peace: The Conflict over the Siachen Glacier
Abstract: 
 This paper models ‘no war, no peace’ situations in a game theoretical framework where two countries are engaged in a standoff over a military sector. The first main objective is to identify rational grounds for such situations and, more precisely, for the explicit equilibria that lead to such situations. It is demonstrated that both countries gain the same payoff from being in this continuous state of perpetual hostility and, moreover, that ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be explained only if the countries perceive an equal measure of military advantage from controlling the area. Given this insight, the second objective of the paper is to provide insights about how ‘no war, no peace’ situations can be resolved. Two different pathways are suggested. The first is idealistic and based on mutual trust, whereas the second is based on deterrence, involving both countries imposing a threat of using armed force against the other country in their respective military doctrines.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 253-270
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1660839
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1660839
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Seung-Whan Choi
Author-X-Name-First: Seung-Whan
Author-X-Name-Last: Choi
Title: Immigration Policy and Terrorism: An Empirical Analysis
Abstract: 
 Though populist politicians deem the terrorist threat as a reason for restrictive immigration policies, existing studies neglect to explore the systematic connection between immigration and security. This study offers a novel theoretical argument about the effect of terrorism on immigration policy and then conducts a first-cut empirical analysis. Based on a battery of statistical tests performed against pooled panel data on immigrant-receiving countries that are attractive to low-skilled workers due to high wages, this study shows evidence that terrorist threats are actually unrelated to restrictive immigration policies.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 271-295
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1659577
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1659577
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:271-295




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Aditya Bhan
Author-X-Name-First: Aditya
Author-X-Name-Last: Bhan
Author-Name: Tarun Kabiraj
Author-X-Name-First: Tarun
Author-X-Name-Last: Kabiraj
Title: Countering Terror Cells: Offence Versus Defence
Abstract: 
 The analysis provides insights regarding the suitability of offensive versus defensive measures in countering a terror cell. It is shown that the optimal resource allocation is more offensive when the cell is aware of which targets have been protected, but does not distinguish between the values of different targets; than the case where it neither distinguishes between target values nor is the protection conspicuous. Also, the ability of the terror cell to inflict damage is least when it neither distinguishes between target values nor is the target protection conspicuous, and most when it shares the counter-terrorists’ target valuations and observes target protection. Hence, from the counter-terrorism (CT) point of view, there seems to be a rationale in making CT target valuations and target protection inconspicuous to the extent possible. The paper finally deals with the possibility of diverging target valuations from the CT standpoint and that of the terror cell and shows that if target protection is conspicuous to the cell and these are common knowledge, then the optimal CT allocation is at least as offensive as the case with identical valuation rankings.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 296-311
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1690183
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1690183
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:296-311




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khalid Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Khalid
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Name: Chi-Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Title: Does Oil Prices Cause Financial Liquidity Crunch? Perspective from Geopolitical Risk
Abstract: 
 This study measures whether oil prices affect financial liquidity (FL) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabi (KSA). The results indicate a positive association between oil prices (OP) and FL in the medium run. FL led OP in the short run during the global financial recession, when the KSA used foreign reserves to stabilize the impact of low OP. Similarly, geopolitical risk (GR) led OP in the medium term and had a positive influence on FL in the short term, especially during periods of higher uncertainty. The correlation between OP and FL becomes more noticeable in the medium term in the presence of GR. Short-run volatility can exert pressure on foreign reserves, which can be effectively managed by keeping reserves in the national currency. Similarly, economic growth sources other than oil income and a peaceful solution to regional differences can reduce defense spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 312-324
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1712640
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1712640
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:312-324




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Charles W. Mahoney
Author-X-Name-First: Charles W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Mahoney
Title: Acquire or Expire: Publicly Traded Defense Contractors, Financial Markets, and Consolidation in the U.S. Defense Industry
Abstract: 
 The U.S. government increasingly outsources important national security responsibilities to defense contractors. In addition to manufacturing hardware and weapons, corporations now supply much of the specialized labor used by American defense and intelligence agencies to execute cyber operations, train foreign militaries, analyze top-secret information, and pilot unmanned aerial vehicles. This study examines the current state of affairs in the U.S. defense industry and demonstrates that publicly traded corporations are awarded the lion’s share of U.S. contracting dollars spent on national defense. Subsequently, the inquiry argues that publicly traded corporations possess a competitive advantage over privately held companies in the U.S. defense industry because of their superior ability to raise capital through initial public offerings, follow-on share sales, and access to debt supplied by financial institutions. In recent years, publicly traded defense contractors have used these financial strategies to make major acquisitions, increase their competitiveness, and consolidate market share in the American defense industry.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 325-342
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1667216
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1667216
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:325-342




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Oishee Kundu
Author-X-Name-First: Oishee
Author-X-Name-Last: Kundu
Title: Risks in Defence Procurement: India in the 21st Century
Abstract: 
 Although there exist several remarkable theories that facilitate the understanding of procurement risks in imperfect market conditions, methods to quantify the impact and identify the most severe risks are less well known. This paper uses the method of risk analysis to discuss defence procurement challenges in India. An original dataset of 88 contracts has been created to identify the most probable and the most severe causes for poor procurement performance. A schedule performance parameter has been constructed to quantify the impact of different adverse events. The findings display a high probability of technological risks followed by contractual risks as the cause for delays in Indian defence procurement. Technological risks are concentrated in cases of indigenous procurement due to a lack of infrastructure and resources while contractual risks mostly occur in contracts where the Ministry of Defence deals with external agents like foreign suppliers. This indicates frictions and transaction costs. These and other findings from the quantitative data on procurement performance are supplemented by insights from an extensive fieldwork in India which included 53 interviews.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 343-361
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1646443
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1646443
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:343-361




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Usman Khalid
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Khalid
Author-Name: Olivier Habimana
Author-X-Name-First: Olivier
Author-X-Name-Last: Habimana
Title: Military Spending and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Wavelet Approach
Abstract: 
 This paper employs a wavelet approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and military spending in a time-frequency domain for the case of Turkey. Turkey presents an interesting case for analysis of military spending and economic growth, as its geopolitical position and history of insurgencies and separatist violence oblige the country to devote an unusually large share of the central government budget to national defence. Timescale regression analysis reveals that military expenditures have significant negative effects on growth in per capita GDP at business cycles of 16 years and longer. Timescale Granger causality analysis indicates that per capita GDP growth responds to movements in military expenditures at business cycles of eight years and above and that this result is very significant. Wavelet coherency analysis corroborates these findings, indicating a significant negative long-run co-movement at business cycles of 16 years and longer. Thus, the neoclassical prediction that military spending may promote growth does not hold in the case of Turkey, at least in the long run. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that, in the long run, military spending has been leading rather than lagging economic growth.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 362-376
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1664865
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1664865
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:362-376




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Derek Braddon
Author-X-Name-First: Derek
Author-X-Name-Last: Braddon
Title: REVIEW OF SELECTED TOPICS ON DEFENCE ECONOMICS AND TERRORISM
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 377-380
Issue: 3
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1864704
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1864704
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:3:p:377-380




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chaker Aloui
Author-X-Name-First: Chaker
Author-X-Name-Last: Aloui
Author-Name: Hela Ben Hamida
Author-X-Name-First: Hela Ben
Author-X-Name-Last: Hamida
Title: Oil-stock Nexus in an Oil-rich Country: Does Geopolitical Risk Matter in Terms of Investment Horizons?
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we attempt to delineate the relevance of geopolitical risk in the oil-stock nexus in a time-frequency domain. We resort to various wavelet coherence methods to capture the influence of geopolitical risk on the dynamic association between oil and stock prices in Saudi Arabia as a rich oil-exporting country in a region with high geopolitical risk. We primarily show that the role of geopolitical risk in the oil-stock interplay varies through timescales and investment horizons. News regarding geopolitical tensions affects the stock market in high frequency bands, while oil impacts are manifested more on longer time-horizons. Geopolitical risk weakens oil-stock connectedness in the short term. Interestingly, geopolitical incidents significantly lower the oil-stock magnitude and volatility correlation. These results offer prominent insights for investors and policy makers, which may be beneficial when responding to future geopolitical tensions in terms of risk management and the identification of investment opportunities.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 468-488
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1696094
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1696094
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jorge González Chapela
Author-X-Name-First: Jorge
Author-X-Name-Last: González Chapela
Title: Evaluating the Internal Labor Migration Effects of Compulsory Peacetime Conscription
Abstract: 
 Conscription typically involves migration to the duty base location. According to DaVanzo’s theory of repeat migration, this military-motivated migration might foster post-military migration. This paper investigates this issue empirically using individual-level data drawn from the 1992, 1998, and 2001 editions of the French survey of labor market entrants ‘Génération.’ The methods used to identify the causal effect of compulsory peacetime conscription on the post-military propensity to migrate exploit the abolition of conscription in France in October 1997 plus information on the timing of service among those who served. Conscription stimulated the post-military propensity to migrate for work of French male labor-market entrants with upper-class origins. Furthermore, there is evidence of a previously overlooked anticipatory effect of conscription: French males who were waiting to be called up for military service were approximately 25% less likely to migrate for work than comparable non-conscripts. Some implications of these findings and a consideration of their external validity are also provided.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 489-506
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1660475
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1660475
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sara Balestri
Author-X-Name-First: Sara
Author-X-Name-Last: Balestri
Author-Name: Mario A. Maggioni
Author-X-Name-First: Mario A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Maggioni
Title: This Land Is My Land! Large-Scale Land Acquisitions and Conflict Events in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract: 
 The paper provides evidence that large-scale land acquisitions in Sub-Saharan Africa raise the likelihood of experiencing outbursts of organized violence. This evidence is achieved through a spatially disaggregated approach, to account for local characteristics, and a quasi-experimental research design, implemented to overcome limitations due to missing geo-referenced information about land deals. Domestic acquisitions are particularly significant in explaining organized violence outbreak, suggesting that the national concentration of power among economic elites hinder social stability. Further, the institutional framework, which forms the background for LSLAs, is a prominent determinant of organized violence occurrence. In particular, more egalitarian and inclusive societies are less prone to conflicts, even in the presence of LSLAs. When land deals are finalized to the cultivation of agricultural commodities for biofuels, the effect is less evident and violence partially depends on climate conditions. On the other hand, land deals still in implementation stage seem to narrow organized violence, possibly due to both local control of areas under investments and socio-economic effects of the deals. Results also show the existence of significant spatio-temporal dependence path, since events of organized violence tend to be recurrent and to persist in space, feeding ‘neighbouring’ effects of proximity and local patterns of violence concentration.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 427-450
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1647727
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1647727
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chi -Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi -Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Meng Qin
Author-X-Name-First: Meng
Author-X-Name-Last: Qin
Author-Name: Ran Tao
Author-X-Name-First: Ran
Author-X-Name-Last: Tao
Author-Name: Nicoleta -Claudia Moldovan
Author-X-Name-First: Nicoleta -Claudia
Author-X-Name-Last: Moldovan
Title: Is Oil Political? From the Perspective of Geopolitical Risk
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the political property of oil from the perspective of geopolitical risk (GPR). We explore the relationship between GPR and oil price (OP) by performing the full-sample and subsample rolling-window bootstrap Granger causality tests. We find that wars will lead to an increase in OP but that low GPR cannot lead to an immediate decline in price. This finding can also be explained by economic crises, which can make OP soar while GPR is low. In turn, the rise in OP has a positive impact on GPR. The oil market has a significant interaction with geopolitical events, which reflects the pattern of global politics, so we can conclude that oil has a political property. In the context of a tense and complex global relationship, the world can benefit from the political property of oil to prevent GPR, which can in turn facilitate an accurate prediction of OP to reduce the adverse effects of large fluctuations in the oil market.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 451-467
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1708562
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1708562
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicholas J. Marsh
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Marsh
Author-Name: Topher L. McDougal
Author-X-Name-First: Topher L.
Author-X-Name-Last: McDougal
Title: Illicit Small Arms Prices: Introducing Two New Datasets
Abstract: 
 Despite calls to reduce illicit arms flows, it remains difficult to detect and quantify them. One proposed method for detecting and quantifying illicit trade volumes is to test econometrically for price changes. This paper documents an effort of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and the Small Arms Data Observatory (SADO) to make such inferential econometric analyses possible by assembling two new datasets on illicit small arms prices. The first, called the ‘Illicit Small Arms Prices – Transactions’ dataset (iSAP-T), has an observational unit of arm(s) sold in a single transaction. The second, called the ‘Illicit Small Arms Prices – Countries’ dataset (or iSAP-C), derives from the iSAP-T and has the more standard country-year observational unit. This paper describes the methods for data collection, organization, and generation for these datasets, presents some descriptive statistics and graphics, and concludes with a discussion of possible future uses and limitations of the datasets.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 381-402
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1757348
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1757348
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Binyam Solomon
Author-X-Name-First: Binyam
Author-X-Name-Last: Solomon
Title: ‘NATO at 70: A Political Economy Perspective’
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 507-508
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1906099
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1906099
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohib Iqbal
Author-X-Name-First: Mohib
Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal
Author-Name: Harrison Bardwell
Author-X-Name-First: Harrison
Author-X-Name-Last: Bardwell
Author-Name: David Hammond
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Hammond
Title: Estimating the Global Economic Cost of Violence: Methodology Improvement and Estimate Updates
Abstract: 
 This paper presents significant methodological improvements on Estimating the Global Costs of Violence. It also presents updated estimates of the global economic impact of violence at $14.8 trillion in 2017. This is equivalent to 12.4 per cent of global GDP or $1,988 per person. In the analysis, 163 countries are examined accounting for 99.5 per cent of the global population. The estimate is comprised of three domains which aggregate to yield a global estimate of the economic impact of violence. These three domains are the costs of interpersonal violence, the costs of collective violence and the expenditures on violence containment. A model of the economic cost of violence is established using a bottom-up accounting approach. This model follows the methodology of the 2018 Global Peace Index (GPI).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 403-426
Issue: 4
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1689485
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1689485
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial Board
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: ebi-ebii
Issue: 4
Volume: 10
Year: 1999
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/10430719908404928
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10430719908404928
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kazeem Bello Ajide
Author-X-Name-First: Kazeem Bello
Author-X-Name-Last: Ajide
Title: Democracy, Regime Durability and Terrorism in Africa
Abstract: 
 This study investigated the causal linkages among democracy, regime durability and terrorism for a panel of 53 African countries over the period 1980-2012. Due to the count nature of terrorism data, the study employs a negative binomial regression estimator. The empirical analysis is based on four terrorism types namely: domestic, transnational, uncertain and total terrorism respectively. The following are the key findings: First, with the exception of the specification relating to uncertain terrorism, the unconditional effect of democracy was found to be negative on the other three dimensions of terrorism. Second, the unconditional impact of regime durability was also positive on terrorism with the exception of uncertain terrorism but in a rather inconsistent manner. Third, the interactions between democracy and regime durability are found to have positive marginal effects on all the terrorism types except uncertain terrorism. Fourth, the net effects of interaction between democracy and regime durability are positive across various models of these terrorism measures. Lastly, the theoretical priors of other covariates are equally validated across different measures of terrorism. On the policy arena, mitigating terrorism would require embracing democratic regime and mainstreaming the concomitant doctrines into the politico-institutional architecture but not without moderation in regime elongation..
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 550-571
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1671090
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1671090
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Muhammad Nasir
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir
Title: Prenatal Exposure to Shocks and Early-life Health: Impact of Terrorism and Flood on Birth Outcomes in Pakistan
Abstract: 
 Simultaneous exposure to natural calamities and conflict shocks is a phenomenon that has been largely understudied. The interplay between natural disasters and conflict shocks can have adverse effects extending beyond the current family members to children in utero. The current paper tries to fill this gap by investigating the impact of floods on pregnancy and birth outcomes across conflict-affected and unaffected districts in Pakistan. Using mother fixed effects strategy, the results suggest that in-utero exposure to violence during flood increases the probability of small birth size by 4.7 percentage points. Moreover, simultaneous exposure to flood and violence increases the probability of miscarriages and stillbirths by 6 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively. Significant heterogeneities are found across income groups and education levels.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 572-587
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1662574
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1662574
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lubna Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Lubna
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Name: Imtiaz Arif
Author-X-Name-First: Imtiaz
Author-X-Name-Last: Arif
Author-Name: Sundus Waqar
Author-X-Name-First: Sundus
Author-X-Name-Last: Waqar
Title: The Impact of Military Expenditure on External Debt: The Case of 35 Arms Importing Countries
Abstract: 
 This study aims to empirically test the effects of military expenditure on external debt of 35 arms importing countries by using the annual panel data from the year 1995 to 2016. The panel was divided into two income classes (upper-middle and lower-middle), and the basic sample was also divided into five different regions (Middle-East and North Africa, South and East Asia, Latin America, Europe and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa) to achieve further robustness in the study. The empirical results of pooled mean group estimators suggest that military expenditure generally increases the external debt burden in the studied countries. More specifically, it was noted that military expenditure decreases external debt in Europe and Central Asia. Moreover, it was found that the interaction term of military expenditure and growth rate is positive and significant in all of the sub-samples, except upper-middle class, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin American regions. Thus, it may be concluded that military expenditure often increases external debt burden in countries where the debt management system is weak. Countries with weaker debt management systems need to devise economic policies that curtail their military expenditure, reduce their external debt and improve their economic condition.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 588-599
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1723239
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1723239
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pascal L. Ghazalian
Author-X-Name-First: Pascal L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghazalian
Author-Name: Mohammad Hammoud
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hammoud
Title: The Peace Level of Nations: An Empirical Investigation into the Determining Factors
Abstract: 
 The escalated violent conflicts and political upheavals in many developing countries have emphasized the pertinence of examining the multifaceted nature of conflict, and the various strategies that bring about reasonable degrees of peace. This paper examines the effects of national economic and socio-economic factors on national peace level, and on the corresponding elementary indicators. The empirical analysis is implemented through a panel dataset, using different econometric methodologies. The basic results underline that countries characterized by higher economic development levels, open trade systems, more educated population, and democratic systems rest on higher national peace levels. Meanwhile, countries that experience higher levels of income inequality and that are endowed with natural resources tend to be less peaceful. Also, the positive impacts of international alliances/regional blocs on national peace are mainly expressed through their promoting economic effects rather than through their aggression-deterrence properties. The empirical analysis shows that the effects of national economic and socio-economic factors on the elementary indicators exhibit considerable variations in magnitude and significance. Hence, an exclusive examination of the effects of these variables on the overall peace index would conceal significant differences across the elementary indicators, which should be accounted for when analyzing national peace and developing peace-promoting strategies.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 509-532
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1743957
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1743957
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pinuccia P. Calia
Author-X-Name-First: Pinuccia P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Calia
Author-Name: Giovanni Sistu
Author-X-Name-First: Giovanni
Author-X-Name-Last: Sistu
Author-Name: Elisabetta Strazzera
Author-X-Name-First: Elisabetta
Author-X-Name-Last: Strazzera
Title: The Impact of Military Downsizing on Two Italian Communities: A Counterfactual Approach Using the Synthetic Control Method
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we propose a quasi-experimental approach to assess the effect that downsizing of the largest experimental military base in Europe, located in Sardinia, Italy, had on local economies. The study shows the fruitfulness of the Synthetic Control method for assessment of socioeconomic impacts on a single treated unit when other standard methods for impact evaluation are not feasible. It is shown that the local communities analysed have been characterised by different levels of frailty, which should be attentively considered if further downsizing of the base will be placed on the political agenda.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 600-620
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1725354
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1725354
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vasilis Zervos
Author-X-Name-First: Vasilis
Author-X-Name-Last: Zervos
Title: Strategic Microeconomic Considerations of Macroeconomic Analysis: Fiscal, Trade and Security Impacts of Aerospace and Defence
Abstract: 
 The usage of foreign direct investment (FDI) is a crucial element in the economic growth literature focusing on sustainable development. In the case of the aerospace sector, security considerations restrict FDI flows and the market-based creation of multi-national enterprises (MNEs), even more than they restrict trade. The role of the government is instrumental as such industries as they exercise significant control over structure and performance through procurement and regulatory aspects. Moreover, there are countries like the US whose aerospace is a leading exporting sector, while significant government expenditure flows impact through fiscal policy the economy at large. The analysis in this paper applies a sectoral analysis of economic development based on the ownership-location-internalization (OLI) theoretic framework for MNE activity for the case of the aerospace industry combined with the strategic trade and macroeconomic implications. The behavior of the government is examined within the macroeconomic, strategic economic and security framework towardidentifying a comprehensive framework of analysis.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 621-634
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1641933
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1641933
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Can Kakışım
Author-X-Name-First: Can
Author-X-Name-Last: Kakışım
Title: Review of “The Economics of Military Spending: A Marxist Perspective“
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 635-636
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1901455
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1901455
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:5:p:635-636




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Phillip Nelson
Author-X-Name-First: Phillip
Author-X-Name-Last: Nelson
Title: The Indivisible Hand of Peace? Consumption Opportunities and Civil War
Abstract: 
 GDP is one of the most robust indicators of civil war onset. As debate continues over the mechanisms underlying the relationship between economic development and civil war, this paper scrutinizes the indicator of GDP directly, disaggregating it into its constituent components to examine whether their distinct associations with conflict onset can shed some light into the black box. Analysis of the individual correlations allows for identification of the driving force behind the aggregate statistical relationship. With this information to hand, consistency checks can be made with existing theories and a new theory presented in this paper, which draws attention to a critical structural factor that drives the supply of civil war labor, namely the lack of consumption opportunities. This factor increases the likelihood of civil war in less economically developed countries as individuals with low consumption opportunities have little to lose from reordering the economic and political system. Analysis of the correlations between components of GDP and the onset of civil war shows that this new theory is most consistent with the key drivers of the aggregate relationship. The examination also highlights a new indicator, which is arguably preferable to GDP as a measure of this relationship.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 533-549
Issue: 5
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1703441
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2019.1703441
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Victor Asal
Author-X-Name-First: Victor
Author-X-Name-Last: Asal
Author-Name: Christopher Linebarger
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher
Author-X-Name-Last: Linebarger
Author-Name: Amira Jadoon
Author-X-Name-First: Amira
Author-X-Name-Last: Jadoon
Author-Name: J. Michael Greig
Author-X-Name-First: J. Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Greig
Title: Why Some Rebel Organizations Attack Americans
Abstract: 
 Hating America – and attacking Americans – can seem like a mandatory activity for rebels; yet, only a minority of rebel groups actually harm Americans. Under what circumstances do rebel groups target Americans? To answer these questions, we leverage the Big Allied And Dangerous 2 data – Insurgency subsample (BAAD2-I). Our model focuses on two classes of rebel motives: direct and indirect. Direct motives are those in which Americans play a central role in rebel group grievances. They include ideology, deployment of American troops, and American support for rebels’ government-based opponents. Indirect motives are those that encourage anti-American attacks because of their powerful symbolic value. This distinction speaks to ongoing policy debates within the United States about the most effective policy instruments to defeat extremism abroad. Contrary to common perceptions, we find that attacks on Americans are unrelated to group ideology. Instead, deployment of American troops and military assistance is positively associated with attacks on Americans, as is economic penetration. Conversely, rebel groups in countries with substantial exports to the US or featuring a long-term presence of American cultural artifacts are less likely to attack Americans. Our findings highlight the value of a ‘soft power’ orientation in American foreign policy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 708-725
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1878320
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1878320
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Dongfang Hou
Author-X-Name-First: Dongfang
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou
Title: The Formation of Terrorist Groups: An Empirical Analysis
Abstract: 
 This article investigates the determinants of terrorist group formation. Using a series of negative binomial regressions with both time and country fixed effects, this paper finds that population, state failure, and civil wars are positive determinants of terrorist group formation. Per capita income has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the incubation of terrorist groups, while regime type is not a significant indicator of the establishment of new terrorist groups. This paper contributes to the existing literature by taking the annual number of newly formed terrorist groups as the dependent variable and extending the time frame of previous research with the help of a recently published dataset.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 698-707
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1950951
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1950951
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:6:p:698-707




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James A. Piazza
Author-X-Name-First: James A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Piazza
Title: The Impact of Rural-Urban Economic Disparities on Terrorist Organizations’ Survival and Attacks
Abstract: 
 This study investigates the influence of rural-urban economic disparities on the survival and tactical choices of resident terrorist groups. These disparities inflame social and ethnic group grievances and erode the state’s capacity to police its rural hinterlands, thereby motivating support for terrorists and providing resident terrorist groups with the ability to attack with impunity. Based on the Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), survival analysis shows that rural-urban disparities foster terrorist group survival. Other empirical methods – negative binomial regressions and competing risk analysis – indicate how rural-urban disparities and other controls affect resident terrorist groups’ campaigns and prospects. With mediation tests, rural-urban inequalities are shown to benefit terrorist groups by increasing social group grievances and by limiting host state’s control over territory.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 726-741
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1916684
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1916684
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khusrav Gaibulloev
Author-X-Name-First: Khusrav
Author-X-Name-Last: Gaibulloev
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: Determinants of Home-Base Attacks by Terrorist Groups
Abstract: 
 Are terrorist groups with multiple home bases more or less predisposed to direct their violence at home or abroad? Moreover, what are the determinants of home-base terrorist attacks? We address those and related questions using the Extended Data on Terrorist Groups for 1970–2016. In so doing, we find that religious terrorist groups are less inclined than groups with other ideologies to conduct home-base attacks. In addition, multi-base terrorist groups are more apt to attack within their base country or countries after, but not before, 1990. In addition, our empirics indicate that terrorist groups with an empire goal are more inclined to attack outside their home base than groups possessing other goals (e.g., policy change or territorial ambitions). Democracy encourages home-base terrorist attacks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 644-663
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1916208
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1916208
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:6:p:644-663




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khusrav Gaibulloev
Author-X-Name-First: Khusrav
Author-X-Name-Last: Gaibulloev
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: On Terrorist Groups: An Introduction
Abstract: 
 This article introduces the contents of this special issue on terrorist groups. After some general remarks, we review essential concepts germane to the issue’s eight articles. Those concepts include the notion of terrorist groups and their alternative ideologies and goals. Differences between domestic and transnational terrorist attacks are briefly reviewed along with time-series plots of such attacks during 1970–2019. Other plots compare and contrast leftist and religious fundamentalist terrorist groups based on their number of attacks and active groups during 1970–2016. The introduction is devoted mainly to highlighting the individual articles and their contributions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 637-643
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1951638
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1951638
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Meierrieks
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Meierrieks
Author-Name: Tim Krieger
Author-X-Name-First: Tim
Author-X-Name-Last: Krieger
Author-Name: Valentin Klotzbücher
Author-X-Name-First: Valentin
Author-X-Name-Last: Klotzbücher
Title: Class Warfare: Political Exclusion of the Poor and the Roots of Social-Revolutionary Terrorism, 1860-1950
Abstract: 
 We examine the effect of class cleavages on terrorist activity by anarchist and leftist terrorist groups in 99 countries over the 1860–1950 period. We find that higher levels of political exclusion of the poor, our main measure of class conflict, were associated with higher levels of social-revolutionary terrorist activity during this time period. This finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach and further robustness checks. We argue that class cleavages – in the form of the monopolization of political power by the rich – perpetuated and exacerbated the socio-economic ordeal of the poor, while simultaneously curtailing their means to effect relief in the ordinary political process. Consistent with our expectations, this provoked terrorist violence by groups whose ideological orientation highlighted concerns over class conflict, economic equality and the political participation of the poor. Indeed, our empirical analysis also shows that terrorist groups motivated by other ideologies (e.g. extreme nationalism) did not respond to political exclusion of the poor in the same manner, which further emphasizes the role of ideological inclinations in the terrorist response to class antagonisms.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 681-697
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1940456
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1940456
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:6:p:681-697




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Joshua Tschantret
Author-X-Name-First: Joshua
Author-X-Name-Last: Tschantret
Author-Name: Yufan Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Yufan
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Author-Name: Hoshik Nam
Author-X-Name-First: Hoshik
Author-X-Name-Last: Nam
Title: An Analysis of Terrorist Group Formation, 1860—1969
Abstract: 
 A number of new and exciting datasets on terrorist groups have been created in recent years. However, most data have limited temporal coverage. In this article, we explore a dataset of historical terrorist groups formed between 1860 and 1969 to determine which insights from the terrorism literature are generalizable over time. A cursory look into the dataset reveals several trends that have been overlooked by both the qualitative historical terrorism literature and the quantitative contemporary terrorism literature. We also perform an econometric analysis of terrorist group formation to test hypotheses derived from the extant research. Our results show limited support for existing hypotheses, although civil society participation appears consistently associated with terrorist group formation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 664-680
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1941549
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1941549
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Efe Tokdemir
Author-X-Name-First: Efe
Author-X-Name-Last: Tokdemir
Author-Name: Graig R. Klein
Author-X-Name-First: Graig R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Klein
Title: Strategic Interaction of Governments and Terrorist Groups in Times of Economic Hardship
Abstract: 
 When governments’ ability to maintain power is threatened, they use any tool at their disposal to re-establish or boost their survival. In this paper, we theorize dyadic strategic choices and interactions between governments and domestic terrorist groups in times of economic turmoil. We contend that governments are more likely to increase their targeting of domestic terrorist groups, which provides legitimate opportunities to divert public attention from economic concerns and rally individuals around the flag. Meanwhile, observing such incentives, domestic terrorist groups make strategic decisions similar to those of interstate actors by either decreasing their attacks (strategic conflict avoidance) or increasing them (strategic conflict seeking) to add an inability to provide safety and security to the government’s existing struggles. We test these competing hypotheses by leveraging two recently released event datasets focusing on the Turkey-PKK conflict. Our findings contribute to the terrorism studies literature on decision-making and strategic choices, and broader scholarship about conflict processes by testing conflict dynamics at the domestic level.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 742-756
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1940457
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1940457
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Justin Conrad
Author-X-Name-First: Justin
Author-X-Name-Last: Conrad
Author-Name: Kevin T. Greene
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin T.
Author-X-Name-Last: Greene
Author-Name: Brian J. Phillips
Author-X-Name-First: Brian J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Phillips
Author-Name: Samantha Daly
Author-X-Name-First: Samantha
Author-X-Name-Last: Daly
Title: Competition from Within: Ethnicity, Power, and Militant Group Rivalry
Abstract: 
 Why do militant groups turn on each other? This behavior is somewhat puzzling, since such groups are often on the same side of a conflict. A growing body of literature seeks to understand political violence by looking at cooperative and competitive relationships among non-state actors. Debates continue about the sources of militant group rivalry. We argue that shared motivations, especially ethnic motivations, along with power differences among groups should help explain inter-group fighting. Our analysis uses new dyadic data on rivalry among the militant groups of Africa and Asia since 1990. Unlike some previous studies, we analyze both terrorist and insurgent organizations. Results suggest that pairs of groups with a shared ethnic identity are more likely than others to have rivalrous relationships. Power asymmetry is also somewhat associated with rivalry, but interaction models indicate that the association is only statistically significant in the presence of shared ethnic motivations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 757-772
Issue: 6
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1951595
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1951595
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Olcay Çolak
Author-X-Name-First: Olcay
Author-X-Name-Last: Çolak
Author-Name: M. Hilmi Özkaya
Author-X-Name-First: M. Hilmi
Author-X-Name-Last: Özkaya
Title: The Nexus between External Debts and Military Expenditures for the Selected Transition Economies: A Panel Threshold Regression Approach
Abstract: 
 The dissolution of the Eastern Bloc at the end of the Cold War compelled most of the centrally-planned economies to adjust their economic order to become free market economies. During the transition process, most of those countries experienced severe external debt overhang problems, due to excessive budget deficits and rapid liberalization of foreign trade and capital account regimes. In addition, most of those countries were facing political unrest due to internal and external conflicts by the end of the Cold War, with rampant weapons proliferation and the arms race. By employing the fixed effect panel threshold regression approach, we unveil the non-linear relationship between military spending and external indebtedness, which has not been examined for the selected twelve transition economies over the period from 1997 to 2016. Our findings reveal the presence of double threshold effects that are embedded in military expenditure, and the debt-accelerating effect of military spending emerges after the first regime. In the early stages, countries tend to finance military expenditure with the help of domestic savings, whereas the requirement for external borrowing emerges later as domestic savings become inadequate. We have also produced some crucial policy recommendations to reflect our findings.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 882-898
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1736779
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1736779
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:7:p:882-898




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thea Riebe
Author-X-Name-First: Thea
Author-X-Name-Last: Riebe
Author-Name: Stefka Schmid
Author-X-Name-First: Stefka
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmid
Author-Name: Christian Reuter
Author-X-Name-First: Christian
Author-X-Name-Last: Reuter
Title: Measuring Spillover Effects from Defense to Civilian Sectors –A Quantitative Approach Using LinkedIn
Abstract: 
 Spillover effects describe the process of a company benefiting from the R&D activities of another one and thereby gaining an economic advantage. One prominent approach for measuring spillover effects is based on the analysis of patent citation networks. Taking social media analytics and knowledge economics into account, this paper presents a complementary approach to quantify spillover effects from defense to civilian research and development, analyzing 513 employment biographies from the social network LinkedIn. Using descriptive network analysis, we investigate the emigration of personnel of the German defense industry to other civilian producers. Thereby, our study reveals that in the last decade, employees of defense suppliers have changed positions significantly less often, with 3.24 changes on average than professionals who have worked more than 50% of their jobs in the civilian sector, having changed 4.61 times on average. Our work illustrates the churn behavior and how spillover effects between defense and civilian sectors can be measured using social career networks such as LinkedIn.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 773-785
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1755787
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1755787
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:7:p:773-785




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. Talha Yalta
Author-X-Name-First: A. Talha
Author-X-Name-Last: Yalta
Author-Name: Furkan Tüzün
Author-X-Name-First: Furkan
Author-X-Name-Last: Tüzün
Title: Time Varying Determinants of US Demand for Defense Spending in the post-Cold War Era
Abstract: 
 We adopt the maximum entropy bootstrap methodology in a rolling window framework in order to investigate the time varying determinants of the US demand for defense spending. Our results based on annual data between 1967 and 2018 show that the US defense demand is mainly driven by lagged military burden, economic growth, GDP share of non-military government spending, election cycle, relative costliness of defense as well as the Russian and the Chinese military burdens. Moreover, the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients show significant variations throughout the sample period. The results also provide a strong evidence of the rising rivalry between the US and China, reflecting the developments in the world economy and the global military arena in the last two decades.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 829-846
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1725856
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1725856
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ourania Dimitraki
Author-X-Name-First: Ourania
Author-X-Name-Last: Dimitraki
Author-Name: Sandar Win
Author-X-Name-First: Sandar
Author-X-Name-Last: Win
Title: Military Expenditure Economic Growth Nexus in Jordan: An Application of ARDL Bound Test Analysis in the Presence of Breaks
Abstract: 
 The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a nation that has persisted through turbulent times. The country’s leaders have long attempted to balance the allocation of resources between a strong military and a developing economy in their quest for stability, peace and prosperity. This paper examines and sheds further light on the relationship between Jordan’s military expenditure and its economic growth during the period 1970–2015. Using the Gregory -Hansen cointegration technique allowing for structural breaks, and the ARDL methodology this paper tests the short – and long–run equilibrium relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in Jordan. Furthermore, with the error correction model (ECM) and the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, we examine the stability of the above relationship. The results reveal positive short – and long–run relationships between military expenditure and economic growth in Jordan, during the period under study. This finding has important policy implications for the Jordanian state, as it justifies the transfer of resources to the military, showing that it has not had a negative impact on economic growth.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 864-881
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1730113
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1730113
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:7:p:864-881




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mitja Kleczka
Author-X-Name-First: Mitja
Author-X-Name-Last: Kleczka
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Author-Name: Marc Jegers
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Jegers
Title: Towards an ‘Airbus of the Land Systems Sector’? Recent Developments and Market Concentration in the European Armoured Vehicle Industry
Abstract: 
 Despite considerable restructuring since the end of the Cold War, the European armoured vehicle industry remains largely fragmented along national lines. As stagnating domestic budgets, rising R&D and production costs and the limits of export-focused industrial strategies provide an economic imperative for further consolidation, the merger of Nexter and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann in 2015 has often been regarded as a mere starting point for a wider trans-European reorganisation process which could even result in a land-based equivalent to Airbus. This article proposes a new classification system to identify the ‘prime competitors’ of the European armoured vehicle industry and debates prospects for further consolidation among them. By means of a volume-based variant of the HHI, concentration in European procurement of armoured vehicles is estimated and various merger simulations are conducted. The results suggest that, while the European armoured vehicle industry will likely experience further consolidation, this process will probably be too small in scope to create an ‘Airbus of the land systems sector’. In the medium to long term, however, market pressures and collaborative programmes such as the Main Ground Combat System might have the potential to create a ‘European champion’ in selected subsectors of the armoured vehicle industry.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 800-828
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1751502
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1751502
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Amann
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Amann
Author-Name: Ingrid Kihlander
Author-X-Name-First: Ingrid
Author-X-Name-Last: Kihlander
Author-Name: Mats Magnusson
Author-X-Name-First: Mats
Author-X-Name-Last: Magnusson
Title: Affordability Aspects in the Development of Defence Equipment: Case Studies of Concept Generation in the Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 Cost escalation for many complex defence equipment is arguably not sustainable. Customer driven requirements have led to an exponential increase in costs by pushing frontiers of technology to support primarily incremental improvements of traditional equipment concepts. Accordingly, affordability has become a more discussed subject in defence acquisition. This paper addresses the process of generating complex defence equipment concepts. The purpose is to explore how affordability is managed in that process and to identify possible leads to how an unsustainable cost escalation for this type of equipment can be curbed. This is done by studying two cases of concept generation of future combat air equipment systems from a company process perspective. This applied micro perspective on cost escalation showed that none of the concepts generated in these two cases were assessed to curb the cost escalation. Further, the innovation model for the generated concepts, with only one notable exception, was incremental. Nevertheless, the empirical observations from these two cases offer leads on how to potentially foster a more innovative and affordability-oriented concept generation process for future defence equipment, as well as indicating avenues for future research.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 847-863
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1733896
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1733896
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sabine Baër
Author-X-Name-First: Sabine
Author-X-Name-Last: Baër
Author-Name: Robert Beeres
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Beeres
Author-Name: Myriame Bollen
Author-X-Name-First: Myriame
Author-X-Name-Last: Bollen
Title: Border Sharing – a Quantitative Analysis of Contributions to FRONTEX 2012–2018
Abstract: 
 From 2011, due to war, conflict, and ensuing unrest, both in the Middle East and Africa, the European Union’s southern external borders were confronted with an influx of migrants and refugees. At its height, the influx became known as a migration (or refugee) crisis and the European Border and Coast Guard Agency (FRONTEX) was perceived as a pivotal partner in crisis management at the borders. FRONTEX does not avail of its own operators nor materiel, and, consequently, Schengen member states and Schengen Associated Countries were requested to contribute personnel and equipment for operations. From 2012 to 2018, this article analyzes the member states’ burden-sharing behavior regarding their contributions to European Border Guard Teams and Technical Equipment Pool. Our findings include both over- and under-contributors. As the sum total of contributions over all member states is high, it could be concluded, member states derive common benefits from border management. However, results also show that, as compared to others, member states situated at the European Union’s Southern and Eastern borders, on average, are over-contributing. Moreover, contributions from individual member states fluctuate over time. Apparently, the acquired benefits are not always perceived in the same way.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 786-799
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1777501
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1777501
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David R. Davis
Author-X-Name-First: David R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Davis
Author-Name: Jacques Fontanel
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques
Author-X-Name-Last: Fontanel
Author-Name: Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Author-X-Name-First: Kristian Skrede
Author-X-Name-Last: Gleditsch
Title: In Memoriam: Michael D. Ward (1948–2021)
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 899-901
Issue: 7
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1971910
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1971910
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:7:p:899-901




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shlomo Weber
Author-X-Name-First: Shlomo
Author-X-Name-Last: Weber
Author-Name: Y. Weber
Author-X-Name-First: Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Weber
Author-Name: H. Wiesmeth
Author-X-Name-First: H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Wiesmeth
Title: Hierarchy of Membership and Burden Sharing in a Military Alliance
Abstract: 
 We examine a military alliance with heterogeneous members that finances the production of the ‘alliance good’ (defense, deterrence, and peacekeeping) through its members’ voluntary contributions. To examine the patterns of those contributions, we introduce a decision-making model with three layers of hierarchy: one ‘super-leader’, a group of ‘leaders’, and several ‘followers’, which takes into account different economic and historical backgrounds of member states. The asymmetric interaction between the members is reflected by the choice of Stackelberg paradigm where the sequence of countries’ moves is determined by their alliance status. We then apply Penrose’s Law to incorporate countries’ heterogeneous population sizes in our model and show the existence of a unique Penrose-Stackelberg equilibrium. We apply our results to NATO and offer an empirical evaluation of burden sharing across the alliance by showing how economic characteristics, alliance ‘awareness’, and the alliance status explain the patterns of members’ contributions. We also evaluate the optimal fit between the data and an appropriate choice of the alliance’s hierarchical structure.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 903-926
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1782584
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1782584
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jin Mun Jeong
Author-X-Name-First: Jin Mun
Author-X-Name-Last: Jeong
Title: Coercive Diplomacy and Foreign Supply of Essential Goods: Effects of Trade Restrictions and Foreign Aid Suspension on Food Imports
Abstract: 
 Economic sanctions constrain targets’ capacity to maintain essential goods imports from foreign suppliers. This research points out that target states may respond to this adverse effect of sanctions by redirecting the resources invested to secondary goods imports to essential goods imports. In addition, I suggest that the availability of this strategy significantly varies across sanctions instruments. When facing foreign aid sanctions, targets may be able to effectively reallocate their import funding to sustain foreign supply of essential items. However, when they are subject to trade sanctions, such a response is not readily available. In the data analysis with 150 countries from 1974 to 2006, I utilize foodstuffs as a proxy of essential goods and provide evidence that targets under foreign aid sanctions transfer their import funding to maintain adequate amount of food aid. Yet, I find no evidence that targets subject to trade sanctions also respond with the same manner.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 989-1005
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1780015
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1780015
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:8:p:989-1005




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter J Phillips
Author-X-Name-First: Peter J
Author-X-Name-Last: Phillips
Author-Name: Gabriela Pohl
Author-X-Name-First: Gabriela
Author-X-Name-Last: Pohl
Title: Space Junk: Behavioural Economics and the Prioritisation of Solutions
Abstract: 
 The use and exploration of outer space is, according to the Outer Space Treaty (OST), to be carried out for the benefit and interest of all parties. Outer space is critically important to the defence and national security interests of many nations, none more so than the United States. Over time, a significant space junk problem has emerged. There is growing recognition of this problem and reason to believe that it will only get worse if current activities continue. Space junk presents a threat to the national security interests and economic interests of spacefaring nations. Various solutions are being proposed and developed. This paper presents an economic perspective and, in a particular, a behavioural economics perspective, on the space junk and national security problem. As various potential technological solutions emerge, we are interested in the obstacles that may stand in the way of an optimal prioritisation of the alternatives.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 956-971
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1772552
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1772552
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yang Xiaoxin
Author-X-Name-First: Yang
Author-X-Name-Last: Xiaoxin
Author-Name: Chen Bo
Author-X-Name-First: Chen
Author-X-Name-Last: Bo
Title: Defense Burden and the Effect of Others: From Neighbors to Allies
Abstract: 
 This paper presents new evidence on the effects of neighbors and allies on defense burdens using a spatial econometrics model with panel data on 36 countries in Europe collected over 19 years. Apart from the conventional spatial matrices of geographical neighbors, we develop special political vicinity matrices based on arms transfers, which reveal political closeness among countries, and solve the problems associated with endogenous weight matrices by using a QMLE approach. The regression results demonstrate that the defense burden is positively and spatially correlated among geographical neighbors. The use of political vicinity matrices reveals a negative eﬀect of allied relations on defense burdens, which supports the free-riding theory in alliances for setting a defense budget. With composite matrices, the intimidation effect induced by geographical approaches is dominated by the free-riding actions of allies, and the effect becomes more pronounced over time.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 927-940
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1789334
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1789334
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. Christian Lehmann
Author-X-Name-First: M. Christian
Author-X-Name-Last: Lehmann
Title: U.S. Refugee Aid and Civil Conflict
Abstract: 
 I present evidence that U.S. aid for refugees mitigates civil conflict in their origin country. My main result is that a 10 percent increase in U.S. humanitarian aid for refugees reduces conflict deaths in their origin country by 1.5 percent. Presumably, aid for refugees entices civilians to flee from the location of conflict, thus depriving armed groups of resources and targets.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 972-988
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1773602
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1773602
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:32:y:2021:i:8:p:972-988




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: William C. Grant
Author-X-Name-First: William C.
Author-X-Name-Last: Grant
Title: Trusting a Double Agent
Abstract: 
 We analyze trust in a game with a double agent and two adversarial intelligence organizations. Greater trust by one organization makes the agent more inclined to align against that organization because the intelligence advantage sought by the agent must come at the expense of a trustor. Conversely, trusting less than the rival organization makes the agent more tempted to double-cross the rival. We identify conditions for a sequential equilibrium where one organization mixes between trust and distrust and the profit-seeking double agent mixes her alignment between the two organizations. When the game includes both profit-seeking and organization-loyal types of agents, semi-separating equilibria are possible, depending on the distribution of agent types and the quality of information about agents’ trustworthiness. Pure-strategy trust by both organizations can be sequentially rational only with the existence of loyal types.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 941-955
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1800896
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1800896
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Torbjørn Hanson
Author-X-Name-First: Torbjørn
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanson
Author-Name: Petter Y. Lindgren
Author-X-Name-First: Petter Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lindgren
Title: No Country for Old Men? Increasing the Retirement Age in the Norwegian Armed Forces
Abstract: 
 Ageing workforces due to low fertility rates and higher life expectancies challenge modern industrialized economies. In order to secure economic welfare and to balance public budgets, governments worldwide implement reforms to increase the retirement age. The trend towards a higher retirement age confronts defense sectors that for centuries have been in search of an age structure characterized by ‘youth and vigor’. In this article, we study the economic gains to society when the special retirement age for military personnel in the Norwegian Armed Forces is increased. Combining the literatures on pension, personnel, and military economics, we identify mechanisms crucial to the outcome of a special retirement age reform. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to illustrate the potential impact on the economic net gains of uncertain variables. We find that an increase in the retirement age provides substantial net benefits to society, even under fairly negative assumptions about the consequences for retention, motivation and efforts, and the value of elderly personnel in the Norwegian Armed Forces.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1006-1031
Issue: 8
Volume: 32
Year: 2021
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1764704
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1764704
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Per Olsson
Author-X-Name-First: Per
Author-X-Name-Last: Olsson
Title: Measuring Quality of Military Equipment
Abstract: 
 This article aims to present and discuss a method for estimating military equipment quality, while also comparing this approach to previous methods developed with the same purpose. Using main battle tanks as an example, the suggested method’s structure and preliminary results are presented while its potential merits and limitations are also discussed. Preliminary results of the method show that US and western European tanks have traditionally had an qualitative edge. However, they also suggest that modern Russian and Chinese tanks have narrowed this gap. Equipment performance models, such as the one presented in this article, could provide additional insights when assessing the global and regional power balances as well as when estimating purchasing power parities and equipment cost escalation. This article will hopefully encourage further discussion on how to measure and compare military equipment quality.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 93-107
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1851474
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1851474
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jamie Fraser
Author-X-Name-First: Jamie
Author-X-Name-Last: Fraser
Author-Name: Gilles Carbonnier
Author-X-Name-First: Gilles
Author-X-Name-Last: Carbonnier
Title: Valuation Responses to Random Changes in Perceived Risk: The Impact of Terrorism on the Defence Sector
Abstract: 
 This study explores the impact of random changes in risk perceptions that occur as a result of terrorist attacks by examining abnormal variations in defence sector valuations. Using a market model event study methodology, the market impacts of three different sets of terror events are measured: Mass casualty events, events that occur in OECD countries, and events that occur in BRICS countries. The findings are tested against a series of explanatory variables that capture characteristics of the domestic defence sector for 21 country-level sector indices and characteristics of the event itself. Results demonstrate that the response of the defence sector to terror events depends more on event characteristics than economic characteristics, contrary to much of the prevalent literature. We also find that speculation in the defence sector persists for several days following an attack indicating that investors broadly expect a military response, particularly in the case of mass casualty events.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 77-92
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1794530
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1794530
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pieter Balcaen
Author-X-Name-First: Pieter
Author-X-Name-Last: Balcaen
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind Du
Author-X-Name-Last: Bois
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Title: A Game-theoretic Analysis of Hybrid Threats
Abstract: 
 For decades, the concept of deterrence and the fear for nuclear confrontation withheld large powers from waging aggression against each other. Recent technological developments and the growing interconnectedness however allowed some states to find ways to challenge the West by using so called ‘hybrid threats’. This way of waging war entails the synchronized use of a broad spectrum of instruments that are well-designed to stay below the thresholds of detection, attribution and retaliation. Combining these (relatively cheap) threats with conventional military hard power confronts the liberal democracies with a difficult choice in terms of defence budget allocation. Whereas arms race stability in the conventional and nuclear domain leads to a peaceful stalemate, this article demonstrates that adding hybrid threats to the spectrum of state power projection leads to a gradual shift of the power balance. While hybrid threats have been extensively studied within the international relations literature, we are (to the best of our knowledge) the first to study these changing security paradigms from a defence economic point of view. Moreover, this article is the first to represent this increasingly complicated state power competition in a game theoretic framework.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 26-41
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1875289
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1875289
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khalid Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Khalid
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Name: Chi-Wei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Chi-Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Kumail Abbas
Author-X-Name-Last: Rizvi
Title: Guns and Blood: A Review of Geopolitical Risk and Defence Expenditures
Abstract: 
 This study evaluates the possibility of having a causal link between geopolitical risk (GPR) and defence expenditure (DE) by employing panel bootstrap Granger causality method. The results highlight the causality running from GPR to DE in China, India, and Saudi Arabia. In other words, the GPR in the form of border disputes, wars and terrorism threats can pursuade countries to increase their defence expenditure. The results we obtain for these three countries are also supported by the neoclassical model, which asserts that GPR is a significant contributor to DE. Contrary to above, there are evidences for reverse causality as well where DE is causing GPR in South Korea and Turkey. The most probable reasons for reverse causality could be the various alliances for regional security by the countries and their dependency on the import of military equipment. The results indicate an insignificant relationship between GPR and DE in Brazil, Israel, and Russia; where the DE is mainly determined by the internal political system and its contribution towards employment generation. On the basis of our results, it can be inferred that the convergence of regional interests in the form of a peaceful solution of disputes may guarantee security. Also, the formulation of the policies that are independent and isolated from the influence of external powers, can help in controlling the ever-increasing DE and GPR in these countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 42-58
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1802836
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1802836
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adem Y. Elveren
Author-X-Name-First: Adem Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Elveren
Title: Military Spending and Profit Rate: A Circuit of Capital Model with a Military Sector
Abstract: 
 This paper aims to contribute to the theoretical discussions on the effect of military spending on the economy. To this end, it first modifies the circuit of capital model proposed by Duncan Foley in 1982, which represents money value stock-flow relations for capital in Capital Volume II. Foley’s model is extremely useful for examining the relationship between military spending and the rates of profit as it allows one to specify the parameters in both the military and civilian sectors. By incorporating the military sector, the adapted model shows that a larger military sector is associated with a higher rate of profit. Second, the paper provides some empirical evidence on the US for 1968–2008 for the main proposition of the theoretical model.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 59-76
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1832394
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1832394
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cem Birol
Author-X-Name-First: Cem
Author-X-Name-Last: Birol
Title: Introducing Missile Tests Dataset
Abstract: 
 This paper introduces the Missile Tests Dataset which consists of the publicized and undisclosed missile tests conducted by 15 countries that initiated their missile development programs sometime between 1946 and 2015. Then it statistically explores factors that affect how frequently these countries test-launch their missiles. In that regard, three broad possibilities are investigated: (i) increases in missile tests following decisions to upgrade the missile arsenal or missile-dependent technologies, (ii) increases in missile tests as a retaliation to foreign military threats, and (iii) decreases in missile tests due to economic costs introduced by sanctions. Negative Binomial regression analyses suggest that decisions to upgrade missile and missile-dependent technologies increase all missile tests but have no consistent effect on publicized missile tests. Threats of military nature have surprisingly no consistent effect on all or publicized missile tests. However, receiving economic sanctions increase publicized missile tests. The paper concludes with a discussion of future research possibilities, and policy recommendations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 108-128
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1990516
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1990516
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julia Bluszcz
Author-X-Name-First: Julia
Author-X-Name-Last: Bluszcz
Author-Name: Marica Valente
Author-X-Name-First: Marica
Author-X-Name-Last: Valente
Title: The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine
Abstract: 
 With more than ten thousand casualties, the ongoing hybrid Ukrainian war between pro-Russian separatists and the government in the Donbass region, Ukraine’s productive core, has taken a severe toll on the country. Using cross-country panel data over the period 1995–2017, this paper estimates the causal effects of the Donbass war on Ukraine’s GDP. Our counterfactual estimation by the synthetic control method shows that Ukraine’s per capita GDP foregone due to the war amounts to 15.1% on average for 2013–2017. Separate analysis for the affected regions of Donetsk and Luhansk indicates an average causal effect of 47% for 2013–2016. Results are robust to pre-war confounds, namely, the Orange Revolution and Ukrainian-Russian gas disputes. As such, we discuss mechanisms underlying the war’s causal effects on economic performance, which is of broader relevance for debates on the role of government in hybrid conflict management.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-25
Issue: 1
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1791616
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1791616
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Callado-Muñoz
Author-Name: Marta Fernández-Olmos
Author-X-Name-First: Marta
Author-X-Name-Last: Fernández-Olmos
Author-Name: Marisa. Ramírez-Alesón
Author-X-Name-First: Marisa.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ramírez-Alesón
Author-Name: Natalia. Utrero-González
Author-X-Name-First: Natalia.
Author-X-Name-Last: Utrero-González
Title: Characterisation of Technological Collaborations and Evolution in the Spanish Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 Collaboration with technological partners as an innovation strategy has become widespread in recent years, and all sectors are immersed in this process. In particular, the defence industry is characterised by the technological complexity of the products and services offered, together with a constant innovation process. However, data that allow us to identify characteristics that are found in collaboration contracts are not usually available in this sector. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by studying the different characteristics of both the technological partners and the development agreements for the 1999-2017 period. This is possible thanks to a database of more than 300 collaboration technology agreements between public and private organisations and the Spanish Ministry of Defence. The results provide the Ministry of Defence with a clear picture of the type of collaborations in the Defence industry, their partners and their behaviour under different economic conditions, which will help it identify the type of collaborations that can contribute to improving the design of its innovation strategy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 219-238
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1799168
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1799168
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeroen Klomp
Author-X-Name-First: Jeroen
Author-X-Name-Last: Klomp
Title: Taxing Butter while Buying Guns
Abstract: 
 This study examines whether governments use the revenues accruing from agricultural taxes to finance their arms imports. This policy issue is especially of importance for developing countries as the decision to finance the acquisition of arms using agricultural taxes will create a trade-off between two important policy objectives in these countries: on the one hand, ensuring food security for the population at large and, on the other hand, improving national security. Our empirical findings generally suggest that governments in developing countries partly finance their arms imports by increasing the agricultural tax rate. It turns out that the magnitude of this effect relies to a certain extent on country-specific factors such as whether a country has to deal with a security threat, strength of the democratic institutions in place, and the regular occurrence of major shocks to the domestic food provision. Also, taxes on cash crops intended for export are more likely to be used for financing the arms imports compared to taxes on import-competing or subsistence crops.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 177-200
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1844401
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1844401
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gulay Gunluk-Senesen
Author-X-Name-First: Gulay
Author-X-Name-Last: Gunluk-Senesen
Author-Name: Mustafa Kahveci
Author-X-Name-First: Mustafa
Author-X-Name-Last: Kahveci
Title: Odds for Arms? State Chance Game Participation in Turkey
Abstract: 
 Net profits of state-run chance games are either earmarked for non-defence ‘good causes’ or added to the public purse in international practice. The Turkish case is unique as 95% of profits were earmarked for the extrabudgetary Defence Industry Support Fund (DISF) by legislation during 1986–2007. The DISF administers security equipment procurement and domestic arms production in Turkey. The earmarking practice was dissolved in 2007 and chance game profits are transferred to the general budget. The incomings of the DISF are from the budget and from earmarked taxes from 2007 onwards. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of these practices on chance game sales for the period 1986–2017. Noting that a chance game is a joint public-private good, participation is motivated by expectations for private gain but at the same time loss is legitimised by expectations for provision of public services with the takeout part. In order to gain insight into the societal motives in chance game participation in Turkey our model is defined in the context of private (consumerism) cum public (security, warfare) interest. The VECM estimates support a long-run relationship between chance game sales and security variables.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 162-176
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1832395
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1832395
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan
Title: The Economic Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran: Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence
Abstract: 
 This study estimates the joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq, on Iran’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP,’ constant 2010 US$) for the period 1978–1988, during the revolution/war. I use a synthetic control approach, whereby a synthetic Iran is constructed as a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’)/Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries to match the average level of some key per capita GDP correlates over the period 1970–1977 as well as the evolution of the actual Iranian per capita GDP during that period. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The average Iranian lost an accumulated sum of approximately US$ 34,660 during 1978–1988 (i.e. the average annual real per capita income loss of US$ 3,150). This loss equals 40% of the real income per capita, which an Iranian could earn in the absence of revolution and war. The confidence sets based on constant, linear, and uniform assumptions of treatment effect show that estimated income loss for Iran is sizeable and statistically significant. The results remain robust to a set of placebo tests.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 129-149
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1825314
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1825314
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Callado-Muñoz
Author-Name: Jana Hromcová
Author-X-Name-First: Jana
Author-X-Name-Last: Hromcová
Author-Name: Marcos Sanso-Navarro
Author-X-Name-First: Marcos
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanso-Navarro
Author-Name: Natalia Utrero-González
Author-X-Name-First: Natalia
Author-X-Name-Last: Utrero-González
Author-Name: María Vera-Cabello
Author-X-Name-First: María
Author-X-Name-Last: Vera-Cabello
Title: Firm Performance in Regulated Markets: The Case of Spanish Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 This paper studies the effects of legal reforms associated with defence and public procurement on firm performance. With this aim, a theoretical framework for the reaction of defence firms to regulatory changes is developed. Its predictions have been empirically assessed using the last reforms implemented in Spain. Our results suggest that these new regulations have allowed the main defence contractors to outperform the other defence contractors in terms of productivity, having no effect on profitability. These findings are in line with theoretical priors. Therefore, it can be claimed that governmental interventions have had an effect on firm performance. We also provide evidence that, while the procurement procedures and the contract law put into place in 2011 have principally affected the productivity of large firms, the centralization process established in 2014 has exerted a higher influence on SMEs.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 201-218
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1783622
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1783622
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francois Melese
Author-X-Name-First: Francois
Author-X-Name-Last: Melese
Author-Name: James Fan
Author-X-Name-First: James
Author-X-Name-Last: Fan
Title: Rethinking Government Supplier Decisions: The Economic Evaluation of Alternatives (EEoA)
Abstract: 
 This paper offers an economic model to assist public procurement officials to rank competing vendors when benefits cannot be monetized. An important defense application is ‘source selection’ – choosing the most cost-effective vendor to supply military equipment, facilities, services or supplies. The problem of ranking public investment alternatives when benefits cannot be monetized has spawned an extensive literature that underpins widely applied decision tools. The bulk of the literature, and most government-mandated decision tools, focus on the demand side of a public procurement. The ‘Economic Evaluation of Alternatives’ (EEoA) extends the analysis to the supply side. A unique feature of EEoA is to model vendor decisions in response to government funding projections. Given a parsimonious set of continuously differentiable evaluation criteria, EEoA provides a new tool to rank vendors. In other cases, it offers a valuable consistency check to guide government supplier decisions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 239-257
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1808939
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1808939
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:2:p:239-257




Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elie Bouri
Author-X-Name-First: Elie
Author-X-Name-Last: Bouri
Author-Name: Rangan Gupta
Author-X-Name-First: Rangan
Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta
Author-Name: Xuan Vinh Vo
Author-X-Name-First: Xuan Vinh
Author-X-Name-Last: Vo
Title: Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin
Abstract: 
 Are price discontinuities in cryptocurrencies jointly related to large swings in geopolitical risk? This is a relevant question to answer given recent news from the press that Bitcoin’s price jumps are driven by jumps in the level of geopolitical risk index. To answer this question, we examine first the jump incidence of daily returns for Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies and then study the co-jumps between cryptocurrencies and the geopolitical risk index using logistic regressions. Our dataset is at the daily frequency and covers the period 30 April 2013 to 31 October 2019. The results show that the price behaviour of all cryptocurrencies under study is jumpy but only Bitcoin jumps are dependent on jumps in the geopolitical risk index. This revealed evidence of significant co-jumps for the case of Bitcoin only nicely complements previous studies arguing that Bitcoin is a hedge against geopolitical risk.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 150-161
Issue: 2
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1848285
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1848285
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Evi Sachini
Author-X-Name-First: Evi
Author-X-Name-Last: Sachini
Author-Name: Konstantinos Sioumalas-Christodoulou
Author-X-Name-First: Konstantinos
Author-X-Name-Last: Sioumalas-Christodoulou
Author-Name: Charalampos Chrysomallidis
Author-X-Name-First: Charalampos
Author-X-Name-Last: Chrysomallidis
Author-Name: Galatios Siganos
Author-X-Name-First: Galatios
Author-X-Name-Last: Siganos
Author-Name: Nikolaos Karampekios
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos
Author-X-Name-Last: Karampekios
Title: Identifying the Intellectual Capital of Greek Defence Firms. Science Outputs and Industrial Considerations
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the performance of the Greek defence industry in terms of their (co)authoring of scientific publications. In the context of knowledge-intensive technological and industrial policy, science outputs are important indicators of the respective intellectual capital of those firms. This is done through bibliometric analysis. Findings indicate that there is an increase in the number of publications over time. This is attributed to a small number of over performing firms – among which a super performer is identified. In terms of industrial classification, the NACE codes of these over performing firms overlap the respective bibliometric Subject Area Classifications. This is a clear indication of a match between scientific and industrial priorities. On the author level, findings indicate that a small number of authors (one per the top 10 firms) are responsible for a large (and in many cases, disproportionate) percentile of total publications per firm. Fourth, using keyword network analysis, most frequent keywords are detected pointing to specific topological clusters of research hotspots.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 366-385
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1849972
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1849972
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:3:p:366-385



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nimonka Bayale
Author-X-Name-First: Nimonka
Author-X-Name-Last: Bayale
Title: Empirical Investigation into the Determinants of Foreign Aid in Sahel Countries: A Panel Bayesian Model Averaging Approach
Abstract: 
 This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on the determinants of foreign aid at the regional level. This is done by adopting a panel Bayesian model averaging approach applied on the data of 10 Sahel countries spanning from 1985 to 2017. Our results suggest that, among the regressors considered, those reflecting trade stakes including arm imports, institutional conditions and socioeconomic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the linear panel data model applied. The results highlight three concerns that justify aid flows towards Sahel countries: (i) interest of donors (self-interest), (ii) recipient economic needs and (iii) security purposes. The paper recommends Sahel countries to strengthen international cooperation for security and peace in compliance with the 13th goal of the Agenda 2063 of the African Union.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 306-326
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1827184
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1827184
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ricardo Ferraz
Author-X-Name-First: Ricardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferraz
Title: The Portuguese Military Expenditure from a Historical Perspective
Abstract: 
 Over a period of more than a century and a half (1852–2019), military expenditure in Portugal reached its highest values in the contexts of the Great War (1914–1918) and the Colonial War (1961–1974). In almost every year between these two conflicts, military expenditure was the most important sector within the structure of the Portuguese State. However, with the end of the Colonial War and Portugal’s entry into Democracy, there was a clear shift in this pattern. Since 1975, military expenditure has ceased to be the most important sector of the Portuguese State, and currently plays only a very reduced role, while social spending has today supplanted it as the most significant sector. Through the estimation of a dynamic model, it proved possible to identify some of the positive and negative effects of military spending on the Portuguese economy during the period 1874–2018. These results are a possibility that is supported by the theoretical framework.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 347-365
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1818424
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1818424
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xun Cao
Author-X-Name-First: Xun
Author-X-Name-Last: Cao
Author-Name: Gizelis Theodora-Ismene
Author-X-Name-First: Gizelis
Author-X-Name-Last: Theodora-Ismene
Author-Name: Anja Shortland
Author-X-Name-First: Anja
Author-X-Name-Last: Shortland
Author-Name: Henrik Urdal
Author-X-Name-First: Henrik
Author-X-Name-Last: Urdal
Title: Drought, Local Public Goods, and Inter-communal Conflicts: Testing the Mediating Effects of Public Service Provisions
Abstract: 
 Water charities and the UN development goals consider access to clean water and sanitation as transformative: improving personal dignity, quality of life and economic opportunities for individuals and the economic resilience of communities to climate stress. Can the provision of services also mitigate the conflict potential arising from climate change? If so, how broad must access be to become effective? We test how household access to improved water, sanitation, and electricity affects the probability of local conflict in nine drought-prone African countries. We use annual PRIO-GRID cells as the unit of analysis and model the probability of a grid-cell experiencing fatal armed conflict during local or proximate drought conditions. DHS data are used to calculate the percentage of households with access to specific services. We show that even relatively modest investments in reliable sanitation and water infrastructures enhance communities’ ability to avoid getting drawn into violent conflict in response to rainfall shocks.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 259-279
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1855560
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ethan Spangler
Author-X-Name-First: Ethan
Author-X-Name-Last: Spangler
Author-Name: Ben Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Ben
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Let Them Tweet Cake: Estimating Public Dissent Using Twitter
Abstract: 
 This paper establishes a new method of estimating public dissent that is both cost-effective and adaptable. Twitter allows users to post short messages that can be viewed and shared by other users, creating a network of freely and easily observable information. Drawing data directly from Twitter, we collect tweets containing specified words and phrases from citizens voicing dissatisfaction with their government. The collected tweets are processed using a regular expression based algorithm to estimate individual dissent; which is aggregated to an overall measure of public dissent. A comparative case study of Canada and Kenya during the summer of 2016 provides proof of concept. Controlling for user base differences, we find there is more public dissent in Kenya than Canada. This obvious, but necessary, result suggests that our measure of public dissent is a better representation of each country’s internal dynamics than other more sporadic measures. As a robustness check, we test our estimates against real-world civil unrest events. Results show our estimates of public dissent are significantly predictive of civil unrest events days before they occur in both countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 327-346
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1865042
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1865042
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Syed Mansoob Murshed
Author-X-Name-First: Syed Mansoob
Author-X-Name-Last: Murshed
Author-Name: Brahim Bergougui
Author-X-Name-First: Brahim
Author-X-Name-Last: Bergougui
Author-Name: Muhammad Badiuzzaman
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Badiuzzaman
Author-Name: Mohammad Habibullah Pulok
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Habibullah
Author-X-Name-Last: Pulok
Title: Fiscal Capacity, Democratic Institutions and Social Welfare Outcomes in Developing Countries
Abstract: 
 The purpose of this paper is to gauge the various determinants of social sector spending captured by social protection and education spending in a cross section of developing countries, a subject on which there is scant empirical evidence. We hypothesize that fiscal capacity is necessary but not sufficient for resource allocation in this area, because the political will to do so must also be present. Using a panel data instrumental variable approach, we find that greater fiscal capacity robustly raises social spending in developing countries in the period 1990 to 2010. It is also strongly evident that rising democratisation enhances social sector spending; the presence of greater democracy and higher fiscal capacity could reinforce this effect. Our work also innovatively incorporates inequality into the analysis, finding that social expenditure is greater in more egalitarian societies. Military expenditure also appears to crowd out social protection expenditure, but not robustly.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 280-305
Issue: 3
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1817259
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1817259
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carlos Seiglie
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Seiglie
Author-Name: Jun Xiang
Author-X-Name-First: Jun
Author-X-Name-Last: Xiang
Title: Explanations of Military Spending: The Evidence from Legislators
Abstract: 
 While a great deal of research has examined determinants of military spending, few studies have systematically investigated how legislators vote on defense expenditures. This study fills this important gap. Based on a sample of roll-call data on defense spending from the 112th U.S. House, we estimate legislators’ ideal points through an item response model. Several interesting findings emerge. First, Republicans are more likely to favor military spending, a finding that is both statistically and substantively significant throughout our analysis. In addition, interest group campaign contributions play an important role by increasing the probability a legislator supports defense spending. Third, when a congressional district has a larger number of veterans or a lower rate of unemployment, its elected legislator is likely to favor military spending. Finally, the effect of public opinion disappears after the district demographics are controlled for.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 489-495
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1939933
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1939933
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cheng-Te Lee
Author-X-Name-First: Cheng-Te
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee
Title: Military Spending and Employment
Abstract: 
 This paper constructs a theoretical model involving supply-side effect, demand-side effect, and security effect produced by military spending to explore the effects of military spending and foreign military threat on employment. This paper proves that the relationship between defense burden and employment is nonlinear (i.e., reverse U shape.). Hence, we find the defense burden of maximizing employment. In addition, we argue that a rise in foreign military threat will be detrimental to the level of output and in turn lead to a reduction in employment. Finally, we show that an increase in the variance of the foreign military spending shocks will raise the level of output and then lead to an increase in employment.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 501-510
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1873660
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1873660
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Edward G. Keating
Author-X-Name-First: Edward G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Keating
Author-Name: John Kerman
Author-X-Name-First: John
Author-X-Name-Last: Kerman
Author-Name: David Arthur
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Arthur
Title: A Note on Estimating the Relative Costs of Unmanned Aerial Systems
Abstract: 
 It is widely believed that Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) are less costly than comparable manned aircraft. However, the costs per flying hour frequently used to compare unmanned and manned aircraft only cover variable costs of aircraft operation. Variable costs per flying hour may overstate UASs’ cost advantage because they do not account for UASs having shorter life spans and being destroyed at higher rates than manned aircraft. In this note, we develop a lifecycle cost per flying hour that considers both acquisition and recurring costs while also accounting for UASs having shorter life spans and greater accidental destruction rates than manned aircraft. We compare unmanned United States Air Force RQ-4 to manned United States Navy P-8 costs using our methodology. While the RQ-4 has a variable cost per flying hour about 38% less than the P-8’s, we find that the RQ-4’s lifecycle cost per flying hour is about 17% less than the P-8’s.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 496-500
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1969187
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1969187
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:4:p:496-500



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Nordlund
Author-X-Name-First: Peter
Author-X-Name-Last: Nordlund
Title: Sweden and Swedish Defence – Introduction to the Special Issue
Abstract: 
 This article provides the context for the articles in this Special Issue on Sweden and its defence. The article starts with Sweden before presenting Swedish defence, its economy, the military threats, the defence industry, the personnel and the guiding principles of defence. Swedish principles for governance of the public agencies in general and within the defence sector in particular are described. A presentation of the Swedish Defence Research Institute (FOI) and its defence economic activities is also provided.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 387-398
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2003529
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2003529
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:4:p:387-398



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin Lundmark
Author-X-Name-First: Martin
Author-X-Name-Last: Lundmark
Title: The Evolution Towards the Partial Strategic Autonomy of Sweden’s Essential Security Interests
Abstract: 
 This article describes how Sweden developed a hybrid defence-industrial infrastructure with three prioritized ‘essential strategic interests’ pointing to parts of the domestic defence industry: ‘a partial strategic autonomy’. The article focuses on Sweden’s declared three essential security interests – combat aircraft capability; underwater capabilities; and integrity-critical parts of the command, control, communication and intelligence domain (C3I). The article finds that the possibilities and ways forward for the essential security interests vary, with a general trend towards more shared and increasingly partial autonomy. Six change factors are formulated as drivers towards Sweden’s partial strategic autonomy of today: Autonomy as a result of failed internationalization; Techno-nationalist perception of Sweden leading to industrial protectionism; Strategic choice; Corporate lobbying; Export incentives leading to political support of technologies; and Europeanization of the EU defence industry. Techno-nationalism and strategic choice are the factors with the most evident impact. The overall governance of the defence industry is clear on the priority of ensuring security of supply and a high degree of autonomy regarding the three essential security interests. Other parts of the defence industry operate under globalized and more competitive conditions. In order to apply increased economic rationality and strive for shared autonomy, Sweden must increase its engagement in multilateral arms collaboration.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 399-420
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1992713
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1992713
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Amann
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Amann
Title: Changing Path and Curbing Cost Escalation: Lessons Learnt from the Gripen Case
Abstract: 
 Extant theory suggests that paths of development, although identified as being unsustainable, might be difficult to depart from. The aim of this study has therefore been to explore and understand how a path change can be facilitated in a setting of complex product systems. A unique single case of product development that managed to curb an unsustainable intergenerational cost escalation for complex defence equipment has been studied. The study shows a relation between a path change and a challenging opportunity, and also indicates how this relation can be moderated by the company management and the customers. The study provides both theoretical and practical implications, supporting understanding and facilitation of path changes.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 421-437
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1870310
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1870310
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Peter Bäckström
Author-X-Name-First: Peter
Author-X-Name-Last: Bäckström
Title: Self-Selection and Recruit Quality in Sweden’s All Volunteer Force: Do Civilian Opportunities Matter?
Abstract: 
 This paper studies how local labour market conditions influence the quality composition of those who volunteer for military service in Sweden. A fixed-effects regression model is estimated on a panel data set containing IQ scores for those who applied for military basic training across Swedish municipalities during the period 2010 to 2016. The main finding is that low civilian employment rates at the local level tend to increase the mean IQ score of those who volunteer for military service, whereas the opposite is true if employment rates in the civilian labour market move in a more favourable direction. As such, the results suggest that the negative impact of a strong civilian economy on recruitment volumes is reinforced by a deterioration in recruit quality.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 438-453
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1903284
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1903284
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ann Lundberg
Author-X-Name-First: Ann
Author-X-Name-Last: Lundberg
Author-Name: Ellen Rova
Author-X-Name-First: Ellen
Author-X-Name-Last: Rova
Title: Management Reforms in the Defence Sector
Abstract: 
 The Swedish defence sector has for the last 30 years been subject to expenditure reductions and changed policy as well as management reforms inspired by the ideas of New Public Management (NPM). The purpose of this article is to provide insights into the major management reforms in the defence sector. We describe and discuss the reforms and the implications for the defence sector in the context of expenditure reductions and changed defence policy. We conclude that the earlier management reforms served as instruments to reduce defence expenditure and that the reforms have affected how agencies and the Government interact and how politicians are able to influence the sector. Furthermore, there are indications that these reforms have contributed to the management challenges we can observe in the defence sector today. These challenges correspond to important features of an efficient network. This implies that there might be a need of a different perspective to improve public management of the defence sector.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 454-474
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1888014
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1888014
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juuko Alozious
Author-X-Name-First: Juuko
Author-X-Name-Last: Alozious
Title: NATO’s Two Percent Guideline: A Demand for Military Expenditure Perspective
Abstract: 
 One of the outcomes of the 2014 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit held in Wales was the recommendation that allies should strive towards spending at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on military expenditure by 2024. This has in recent years put the debate on burden sharing within the Alliance in the limelight. Within the Alliance, the interpretation of the guidelines is different. This is partly because the U.S.A, especially under President Trump, has consistently viewed the 2-% guideline as a binding agreement. Some allies have, however, indicated that their military expenditure will not increase to the recommended threshold by the set deadline. Critics of the guideline have also identified several shortfalls associated with it and consequently dismissed it. Those who support it emphasize for instance that it contributes to addressing grievances about free riding within the Alliance. This paper contributes to this discussion and literature on demand for military expenditure by assessing how NATO’s two percent guideline can be viewed from a demand for military expenditure perspective. It also proposes and estimates a dynamic panel model for this purpose. Empirical evidence presented suggests that fiscal conditions require attention in the debate on the two percent guideline.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 475-488
Issue: 4
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1940649
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1940649
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:4:p:475-488

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Matthew Brummer
Author-X-Name-First: Matthew
Author-X-Name-Last: Brummer
Title: Innovation and Threats
Abstract: 
 All major research programs that study technological change find common ground in emphasizing the explanatory significance of domestic institutions in determining national innovation rates. And yet, after decades of research, this domestic-centered approach has yet to identify any particular set of institutions or policies that explain variation in innovative performance over time and across cases. Recently, a new research program has emerged which argues that this bottleneck to theory development is due to a critical omitted variable bias: international security. This article probes one facet of this argument by examining the relationship between international threat environments and national innovation rates. The regression results show a positive effect of threats on national innovation, a finding that is robust across different specifications and periods of analysis. Additionally, unlike previous studies that find no significant relationship between security alliances and military innovation, the opposite is true of threat: states faced with high external threat environments tend to innovate at the defense technology frontier.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 563-584
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1853984
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1853984
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wukki Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Wukki
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: Non-UN Peacekeeping Effectiveness: Further Analysis
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the effectiveness of non-UN-led peacekeeping operations (PKOs) from two alternative perspectives. First, the four kinds of regional and international (out of region) PKOs are investigated based on their ability to curtail one-sided violence (OSV) against civilians by host governments or rebels. That analysis is further bolstered by propensity-score matching to ameliorate potential selection bias stemming from non-UN PKOs. For the matched sample, we find that non-UN peacebuilding and peace enforcement missions limit rebel caused OSV, which is a novel result. Second, the ability of non-UN PKOs’ troops and police to end conflict or to maintain peace are ascertained based on survival analysis. Non-UN troops, but not police, curtail the transition from peace, regardless of matching. Generally, non-UN PKOs display effectiveness in limiting OSV or maintaining peace, but not in ending conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 511-533
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1882280
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1882280
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jussi Heikkilä
Author-X-Name-First: Jussi
Author-X-Name-Last: Heikkilä
Author-Name: Ina Laukkanen
Author-X-Name-First: Ina
Author-X-Name-Last: Laukkanen
Title: Gender-specific Call of Duty: A Note on the Neglect of Conscription in Gender Equality Indices
Abstract: 
 We document that existing gender equality indices do not account for gender-specific mandatory peace-time conscription (compulsory military service). This suggests that gender-specific conscription is not considered to be an important gender issue. If an indicator measuring the gender equality of mandatory conscription was to be included in gender equality indices with appropriate weight, then the relative rankings of countries in terms of measured gender equality could be affected. In the context of the Nordic countries, this would mean that Finland and Denmark – the countries with mandatory conscription for men only – would have worse scores with respect to gender equality compared to Sweden and Norway, countries with conscription for both men and women – and Iceland, which has no mandatory conscription, regardless of gender.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 603-615
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1844400
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1844400
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:5:p:603-615



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeroen Klomp
Author-X-Name-First: Jeroen
Author-X-Name-Last: Klomp
Title: Killing the Deal
Abstract: 
 On October 2nd, 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist and critic of the Saudi Arabian regime, disappeared after a visit to the Saudi Arabian consulate in Turkey nd was most likely murdered shortly afterwards. After this incident, a period of uncertainty started about whether or not a major arms deal that was signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia would still going to be approved by Congress or in turn will be rejected. The main findings presented in this study clearly demonstrate that the uncertainty surrounding the deal caused a significant drop in the daily return on the equity prices of US defense firms. This result suggests that investors believe that it is very likely that the major arms deal will be blocked by Congress in the short-run thereby reducing the business perspectives of the US defense-related industry. Besides these findings also imply that investors expect that the US president will not use its veto power or make permanently use of the exemption clause provided in the US arms trade legislation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 548-562
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1824363
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1824363
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:5:p:548-562



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Antonis Adam
Author-X-Name-First: Antonis
Author-X-Name-Last: Adam
Author-Name: Evi Tsavou
Author-X-Name-First: Evi
Author-X-Name-Last: Tsavou
Title: One Strike and You’re out…Dictators’ Fate in the Aftermath of Terrorism
Abstract: 
 We use a cross-country dataset on terrorism and leadership survival from 1970 through 2015 to shed light on a leader’s fate after terrorists’ strike. We provide robust evidence that incumbents in electoral authoritarian regimes face an increased hazard of exit from political power. This is contrasted with the closed authoritarian dictators that remain intact. Moreover, we fail to find a robust effect of terrorism on a leader’s survival probability in democracies. We conceive this effect to be due to the collapse of the elite coalition in autocracies after an attack, suggesting that the dictator’s ‘loyal friends’ betray him in the aftermath of terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 585-602
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1863139
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1863139
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:5:p:585-602



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Karl Skogstad
Author-X-Name-First: Karl
Author-X-Name-Last: Skogstad
Author-Name: Ryan A. Compton
Author-X-Name-First: Ryan A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Compton
Title: Country Survey: Canadian Military Expenditure and Defence Policy
Abstract: 
 This paper provides an overview of the Canadian defence sector following the Cold War. A review of Canadian defence policy in this period indicates that, though the mission of the Canadian military did not change, fiscal realities forced severe restrictions on the size and capabilities of the organization. Comparisons between Canada and other G7 NATO nations indicate that throughout this period, Canada has consistently devoted fewer resources to the military than its allies. A review of Canada’s defence industrial base and defence policy indicates that this limited funding has led to a small and uncompetitive defence sector in the Canadian economy. Lastly, a regression analysis of Canada’s defence spending is undertaken which reveals that domestic economic variables are the primary determinant of Canadian defence spending during this period.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 616-636
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1963525
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1963525
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:5:p:616-636



Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marion Bogers
Author-X-Name-First: Marion
Author-X-Name-Last: Bogers
Author-Name: Robert Beeres
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Beeres
Author-Name: Myriame Bollen
Author-X-Name-First: Myriame
Author-X-Name-Last: Bollen
Title: NATO Burden Sharing Research along Three Paradigms
Abstract: 
 This paper provides both a quantitative and a qualitative review and interpretation of 153 journal papers on NATO burden sharing behaviour published over the period 1966–2020. Based on our findings, we distinguish three paradigms, reflecting the main questions and views within their particular realm of burden sharing research. Subsequently, these three paradigms study (1) the distribution of defence burdens amongst NATO member states; (2) the determinants of NATO burden sharing behaviour; and (3) how contributions to the public good of individual member states merge to determine the overall level of the good available for consumption. For each paradigm, a qualitative insight in evolving bodies of literature is offered. As it turns out, most burden sharing studies are limited to one paradigm and its ensuing main question. Future research may benefit from cross-fertilization across paradigms, longitudinal approaches and a widening of empirical foci to encompass novel threats.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 534-547
Issue: 5
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1819135
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2020.1819135
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# input file: GDPE_A_1873084_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Alejandro Esteller-Moré
Author-X-Name-First: Alejandro
Author-X-Name-Last: Esteller-Moré
Author-Name: Leonzio Rizzo
Author-X-Name-First: Leonzio
Author-X-Name-Last: Rizzo
Title: The Economic Costs of a Secessionist Conflict: The Case of Catalonia
Abstract: 
 Due to the pro-independence demands of part of its electorate, the political fit of Catalonia within Spain has given rise to notable political tensions over the last few years. This conflict has progressively affected several dimensions of Catalan society, including, potentially, the economy. The illegal referendum on independence, held in October 2017, marked the climax of political and social tensions, leading to a Constitutional crisis and further stoking the conflict as opposed to offering any hope of an early resolution. We analyze a complete set of margins potentially affected by the referendum, including real (aggregate demand and supply) and financial responses. Using a synthetic control method, we find strong evidence of the outflow of short-term bank deposits after the referendum; while, on the real side, we find evidence of responses in aggregate supply (number of capital increases and number of new firms registered).
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 655-688
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1873084
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1873084
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# input file: GDPE_A_1904358_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Na Hou
Author-X-Name-First: Na
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou
Author-Name: Zhipei Chi
Author-X-Name-First: Zhipei
Author-X-Name-Last: Chi
Title: Sino-U.S. Relations and the Demand for Military Expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Region
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the demand for military expenditure in eighteen selected Indo-Pacific countries for the years 1993–2018. As the dominant powers, the U.S. and China characterize the geopolitical structure of the Indo-Pacific region. Sino-U.S. relations are newly quantified by measuring the number of cooperative and conflict events between China and the United States based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). After incorporating Sino-U.S. relation variables into neoclassical demand models, the panel data estimating results reveal that the increasing number of confrontations from the United States toward China has lead to increases in non-U.S. allies’ military expenditure while the rise in China confronting the United States has not. U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region have tended to increase military expenditure when the United States increases its pressure on China. The empirical results provide evidence that Sino-U.S. relations affect the level of military expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Region.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 751-766
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1904358
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1904358
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# input file: GDPE_A_1928435_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Tim Haesebrouck
Author-X-Name-First: Tim
Author-X-Name-Last: Haesebrouck
Title: NATO Burden Sharing after the Wales Summit: A Generalized Set Qualitative Analysis
Abstract: 
 At the 2014 Wales Summit, the NATO allies pledged to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence by 2024. While some allies are on track to meet the 2% target, others only modestly augmented their military expenditures and still others have even reduced their defence budgets. This article aims to explain the diverging trajectories of the allies’ military expenditures during the first five years after the Wales Summit. More specifically, it introduces an integrated burden sharing model, which is tested with generalized set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that the threat posed by Russia provided the most important incentive for increasing defence budgets. However, general budget constraints kept some allies from increasing their defence budget in proportion to the threat posed by Russia. Conversely, in the absence of budget constraints, allies governed by a right-leaning executive made intermediate budget efforts even if they only faced a low level of threat. Strikingly, budget inertia only had a modest impact on the allies’ defence budgets, only resulting in a low level of spending in allies that were not threatened by Russia and either faced considerable budget constraints or were governed by a left-wing government.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 637-654
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1928435
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1928435
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# input file: GDPE_A_1904200_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Nikolaos A. Kyriazis
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kyriazis
Author-Name: Emmanouil-M. L. Economou
Author-X-Name-First: Emmanouil-M. L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Economou
Title: The Impacts of Geopolitical Uncertainty on Turkish Lira during the Erdoğan Administration
Abstract: 
 This paper sets out to explore whether the Turkish geopolitical uncertainty exhibits significant linkages with fluctuations in the Turkish lira (TRY) values against other currencies. The period examined covers the Erdoğan administration (March 2003 up to the present). The innovative geopolitical uncertainty index by Caldara and Iacoviello and modern GARCH methodologies are adopted in order to explore how geopolitical risk influences currency values and the overall economy during this turbulent period. Econometric outcomes reveal that geopolitical uncertainty leads to devaluation of TRY against the US dollar, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona but in a non-significant manner whereas mixed results emerge concerning the impacts of macroeconomic or financial variables.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 731-750
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1904200
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1904200
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# input file: GDPE_A_1896961_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Melissa R. Trussell
Author-X-Name-First: Melissa R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Trussell
Title: The Cyclical Relationship of Peace and Trust
Abstract: 
 This paper examines many instances of the same investment game to explore the questions of how violence affects trusting and trustworthy behaviors and how those behaviors affect a country’s level of violence or peacefulness. Average responses of players in the investment game are compared across countries experiencing varying degrees of peacefulness or conflict. The primary finding is that a macroeconomic peace index can predict trusting behavior but has no effect on trustworthy behavior. Trustworthiness, on the other hand, affects peacefulness. It is necessary, then for policymakers to foster trust and trustworthiness among individuals in order to maintain peace, and they must work to rebuild macroeconomic institutions to restore trust, to repair communities, and to revitalize economies after conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 689-711
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1896961
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1896961
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# input file: GDPE_A_1879412_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220823T191300 git hash: 39867e6e2f
Author-Name: Kazeem Bello Ajide
Author-X-Name-First: Kazeem Bello
Author-X-Name-Last: Ajide
Author-Name: Olorunfemi Yasiru Alimi
Author-X-Name-First: Olorunfemi Yasiru
Author-X-Name-Last: Alimi
Title: Natural Resource Rents, Inequality, and Terrorism in Africa
Abstract: 
 This study examines the impact of natural resource rents on terrorism via inequality channel in 34 African economies, straddling the period 1980–2012. This study employs a negative binomial regression, in which the following findings are established: first, the unconditional impact of natural resource rents on terrorism is found to be positive across the model specifications, particularly when Gini and Theil indices are controlled for. Second, inequality has no discernable first-order impact on terrorism across the board. Third, the marginal impacts of interactions between inequality measures, specifically Gini and Theil coefficients and total natural resource rents on terrorism are significantly negative. Four, the corresponding net effects of interactions between natural resource rents and inequality (Gini and Theil coefficients) on terrorism are positive, thus lending support to earlier submission of involving all constitutive variables in the specifications for the parameters to make economic sense. The results are robust to accounting for fixed and country effects using the Poisson Pseudo maximum likelihood high-dimension fixed effects estimator. On the policy front, maintaining fairness and equity in the distribution of rents from the ‘free gifts of nature’ remains a veritable policy menu, especially for the resource-rich economies, to counteracting terrorist activities.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 712-730
Issue: 6
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1879412
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1879412
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# input file: GDPE_A_1873085_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Jingxian Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Jingxian
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Author-Name: Kevin Siqueira
Author-X-Name-First: Kevin
Author-X-Name-Last: Siqueira
Title: The Presence of Revenge in Conflict and the Possibility of Complete Deterrence
Abstract: 
 We allow for the possibility of revenge in attacker-defender conflicts under a variety of settings including, for example, when one of the players faces a no-win situation. In a two-player two-period conflict where revenge stems from the grievances of one of the parties to the original conflict, we show that the presence of revenge can influence the amount of effort devoted to the conflict and may in certain circumstances, exacerbate it. We also give conditions when the presence of revenge can deter an attack altogether.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 805-817
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1873085
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1873085
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# input file: GDPE_A_1933312_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Ioannis Choulis
Author-X-Name-First: Ioannis
Author-X-Name-Last: Choulis
Author-Name: Marius Mehrl
Author-X-Name-First: Marius
Author-X-Name-Last: Mehrl
Author-Name: Kostas Ifantis
Author-X-Name-First: Kostas
Author-X-Name-Last: Ifantis
Title: Arms Racing, Military Build-Ups and Dispute Intensity: Evidence from the Greek-Turkish Rivalry, 1985-2020
Abstract: 
 Arms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 779-804
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1933312
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1933312
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# input file: GDPE_A_1926176_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais
Title: MBDA’s Industrial Model and European Defence
Abstract: 
 Among European arms producers, MBDA represents the most advanced example of industrial integration and cross-border specialisation, thanks to a unique model of French–British centres of competence. However, it constitutes an exception inside the European defence technological and industrial base. It is therefore relevant to analyse why MBDA was able to achieve such consolidation process from fragmented competences of the European missile industry and to merge once competing companies despite the lack of a unique regulatory framework at the European level. This article presents the main features of MBDA today. It analyses the consolidation process in the European missile industry that created MBDA. It underlines how cooperative programmes provided a critical impulse in favour of industrial consolidation and the specialisation of MBDA sites across Europe. It explains how technological and industrial assets were reshuffled across European borders. It focuses on exports as a key dimension for MBDA’s model. Finally, it concludes by exploring the limits that result from the lack of a unified regulatory framework in Europe.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 876-893
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1926176
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1926176
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# input file: GDPE_A_1941548_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan
Title: The Effects of International Sanctions on Iran’s military spending: A Synthetic Control Analysis
Abstract: 
 I use the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of international banking and energy sanctions from 2012 to 2015 on Iran’s military spending. I created a counterfactual Iran, a synthetic control group, that mimics the socioeconomic characteristics of Iran before the international sanctions of 2012. Then I compare the military spending of the counterfactual Iran without sanctions to the factual Iran with sanctions for the period of 2003–2015. Over the entire 2013–2015 period, per capita military spending was reduced by approximately 117 US$ per year on average. The main findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests. Estimated confidence sets show that the decrease in Iran’s military spending after the 2012 sanctions is also statistically significant.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 767-778
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1941548
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1941548
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# input file: GDPE_A_1921463_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Mário J. A. Fortuna
Author-X-Name-First: Mário J. A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Fortuna
Author-Name: João C. A. Teixeira
Author-X-Name-First: João C. A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Teixeira
Author-Name: Francisco J. F. Silva
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco J. F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Silva
Title: Gone with the Winds of Peace: The Regional Economic Effects of Military Base Downsizings and Closures
Abstract: 
 This paper analyzes the economic effects of military base downsizing and closures at the regional level, considering the case of the US military Air Base located at Lajes, in Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal. A Computable General Equilibrium Model is used as a tool to examine these effects, allowing potential sector details and the identification of distributional implications. The results suggest that when no mitigation policies are undertaken, the downsizing process has a small regional effect on GDP but a greater local effect on the island. Imports, as expected, tend to decrease in the cutback scenarios and to increase when specific mitigation policies are considered. The main export gainers are the primary sectors that become more competitive due to factor price decreases. The main export losers are some industrialized products and services. The results provide support for the implementation of mitigation policies, which should be reasonable in both their intensity and focus, since there is a risk associated with these policies. Replenishing the public budget and allowing expenditures according to the current government expenditure structure tends to crowd-out private initiatives, leading to an overall long-term negative effect on the economy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 818-841
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1921463
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1921463
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# input file: GDPE_A_1893454_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
Author-X-Name-First: Kyriakos
Author-X-Name-Last: Emmanouilidis
Author-Name: Christos Karpetis
Author-X-Name-First: Christos
Author-X-Name-Last: Karpetis
Title: Cross–Country Dependence, Heterogeneity and the Growth Effects of Military Spending
Abstract: 
 Until today, the great majority of the relevant literature is dominated by growth models that assume common structural parameters and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) evolution across countries. In the context of the modified Solow convergence equation, the role of the present paper is to highlight the importance of incorporating cross–country differences, both in observables and unobservables, in the investigation of the defense–growth nexus. Special attention is paid to the heterogeneity in TFP growth and the cross–country dependence induced by global shocks. Furthermore, it analyzes the econometric issues involved by providing a brief review of various heterogeneous dynamic panel estimators. The presented estimators are then applied to two alternative panel specifications of the Solow model. Overall, the empirical application revealed that the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) estimator seems to be the most reliable option among the various dynamic panel estimators employed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 842-856
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1893454
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1893454
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# input file: GDPE_A_1874640_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Dongfang Hou
Author-X-Name-First: Dongfang
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou
Title: The Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism in Asia: A Control Function Approach
Abstract: 
 This paper studies the impact of education on domestic terrorism in Asian countries from 1970 to 2018. A control function approach is utilized to address the endogeneity of education on terrorism. Generally speaking, results show that education promotes domestic terrorism in Asia. Negative binomial regressions with and without control function are run for other parts of world to examine whether the patterns in Asia hold worldwide. Other important determinants of domestic terrorism in Asia include regime type, ethnic fractionalization, linguistic fractionalization, religious fractionalization, GDP per capita, and trade openness. This paper contributes to the literature by 1) applying a control function approach to control for possible endogeneity of education on terrorism, 2) analyzing exclusively Asia, a region where terrorism has been increasing rapidly over the last decade, (3) and focusing on domestic terrorism.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 857-875
Issue: 7
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1874640
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1874640
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# input file: GDPE_A_1974793_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Christian Bjørnskov
Author-X-Name-First: Christian
Author-X-Name-Last: Bjørnskov
Author-Name: Bodo Knoll
Author-X-Name-First: Bodo
Author-X-Name-Last: Knoll
Author-Name: Martin Rode
Author-X-Name-First: Martin
Author-X-Name-Last: Rode
Title: A Time to Plot, A Time to Reap: Coups, Regime Changes, and Inequality
Abstract: 
 A vast economic literature examines the welfare gains and distributional consequences of economic reforms, while much less is generally known on the relationship of inequality and forced regime changes. Some studies analyze how economic inequality impacts the likelihood of coups, but the distributional outcomes of such events have been largely ignored to date. Employing novel data, we find that successful coups have a significant positive impact on the consumption shares of the lowest quintile and a strong negative impact on the highest quintile, as compared to the inexistent redistribution that results from failed coups. In addition, the redistributive effect is stronger for military coups, as compared to civilian coups, and effects seem to be substantially driven by coups against democratic regimes. Despite their negative impact on overall growth and per capita income, our results show that forced regime changes, as compared to non-successful attempts, reduce inequality at a short notice. This may partially explain their continued popularity in highly unequal developing countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 912-937
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1974793
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1974793
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# input file: GDPE_A_1919831_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Dursun Peksen
Author-X-Name-First: Dursun
Author-X-Name-Last: Peksen
Author-Name: Jin Mun Jeong
Author-X-Name-First: Jin Mun
Author-X-Name-Last: Jeong
Title: Coercive Diplomacy and Economic Sanctions Reciprocity: Explaining Targets’ Counter-Sanctions
Abstract: 
 Though reciprocity is an important aspect of coercive diplomacy, little is known about whether and when sanctioned countries (i.e., targets) respond to foreign pressure with their own counter-sanctions. The purpose of this article is to offer a comprehensive analysis of the conditions under which targets are more likely to employ economic counter-measures against their senders. Analyzing data for sanctions reciprocity episodes in the Threats and Imposition of Economic Sanctions (TIES) dataset, we find that targets with wealthier economies, less democratic regimes, or higher trade dependence on their senders are more likely to initiate reciprocal sanctions. Our findings also denote that sanctions reciprocity is more likely when targets are subject to sanctions by senders with poor economies or when the issue that instigates the initial sanctions is less salient. As the first cross-national, quantitative analysis of sanctions reciprocity, our analysis provides a more complete picture of how strategic ties between senders and targets unfold, and why some sanctions are more likely to fail or result in stalemate due to counter-sanctions employed by targets.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 895-911
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1919831
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1919831
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# input file: GDPE_A_1910164_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Noman Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Noman
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Name: Faiz Ur Rehman
Author-X-Name-First: Faiz Ur
Author-X-Name-Last: Rehman
Title: Does Terrorism Reduce Trust?: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan
Abstract: 
 The literature on social capital and its economic implications shows that trust plays a significant role in the transaction of goods and services. However, few studies empirically investigate the evolution of trust over time. In this paper, we show how individuals’ trust in Pakistan is affected by the persistent shock of terrorism. By matching the country representative survey data with district-level terrorist attacks, we observe that exposure to terrorism is associated with lower levels of interpersonal trust. This finding is robust to various robustness checks including different indicators of terrorism risk and trust. Furthermore, our results are also consistent with the IV identification strategy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 993-1009
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1910164
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1910164
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# input file: GDPE_A_1918857_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: A. Talha Yalta
Author-X-Name-First: A. Talha
Author-X-Name-Last: Yalta
Author-Name: A. Yasemin Yalta
Author-X-Name-First: A. Yasemin
Author-X-Name-Last: Yalta
Title: The Determinants of Defense Spending in the Gulf Region
Abstract: 
 We examine the determinants of military spending of the six countries in the Gulf Region by using a partial adjustment model in a system setting estimated with the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. Our model takes into consideration the institutional inertia as well as intercountry correlations, both observed and unobserved. In addition to economic variables, we also consider a series of strategic variables to shed light on various issues such as free riding and spill-in effects. Our findings based on annual data between 1980 and 2016 indicate that the military expenditures are influenced by both economic and strategic factors with a high degree of heterogeneity across different countries. Our results also show that the GCC member countries do not free ride on each others’ military expenditures. In addition, the US military presence is an important determinant of defense spending in the region.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 980-992
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1918857
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1918857
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# input file: GDPE_A_1943625_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Mohamed Maher
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed
Author-X-Name-Last: Maher
Author-Name: Yanzhi Zhao
Author-X-Name-First: Yanzhi
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao
Title: Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach
Abstract: 
 Previous studies have investigated the relationship between political instability and economic growth separately from the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth. Besides, they did not cover the period after 2011 (i.e. the Arab Spring and its consequences). Therefore, this paper attempts to empirically analyze the long-run and short-run impacts of both political instability and military expenditure on economic growth in Egypt. We estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using data on the Egyptian economy over the period 1982–2018. For the robustness of our results, we use the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimator. Results of the ARDL approach indicate a significant negative relationship between political instability and economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. Contrarily, military expenditure has an insignificant impact on economic growth, especially in the long-run. These results are confirmed by the FMOLS estimator. Moreover, the estimated coefficient on the one-period lagged error correction term (ECTt-1) indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship are corrected within a year.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 956-979
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1943625
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1943625
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# input file: GDPE_A_1907985_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Droff Josselin
Author-X-Name-First: Droff
Author-X-Name-Last: Josselin
Author-Name: Julien Malizard
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard
Title: Determinants of Defense Spending: The Role of Strategic Factors in France
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the main determinants of French defense spending over the period 1958–2017. To estimate the determinants of defense spending, the demand defense literature considers both economic and strategic factors such as conflicts, threats, and alliances. Our approach is original because we focus on strategic factors, including proxies for an alliance’s membership and external threats. In addition, we include transnational terrorism as a proxy for internal threats. We find that defense spending is positively related to the gross domestic product, North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership, military operations abroad, and external threats and negatively linked to the population as a proxy to public service needs. These results are robust to changes in specifications and shifts in defense policy observed after 1991. This contribution underlines that the fundamental determinants of defense policy in France are economic conditions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 938-955
Issue: 8
Volume: 33
Year: 2022
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1907985
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1907985
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# input file: GDPE_A_1945427_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Sebastian Negrusa
Author-X-Name-First: Sebastian
Author-X-Name-Last: Negrusa
Author-Name: Projesh P. Ghosh
Author-X-Name-First: Projesh P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh
Author-Name: Sarmistha Pal
Author-X-Name-First: Sarmistha
Author-X-Name-Last: Pal
Title: Do Veterans with Disabilities Respond Differently to the Post-9/11 GI Bill?
Abstract: 
 Veterans exit military service with varying degrees of service-connected disabilities (SCD). The GI Bill provides educational benefits, which increased substantially in 2009 (‘Post-9/11 GI Bill’). Exploiting the exogeneity of SCD and using a difference-in-difference approach, we find that SCD veterans are 16.2 percent more likely to attend college than non-SCD veterans due to the Post-9/11 GI Bill, an effect driven by lower-level SCD veterans attending public colleges. After the benefit increase many lower-level SCD veterans switch from being employed to attending college. We provide insights into the disabled veterans’ college-employment tradeoffs and find that the benefit likely helps disabled veterans improve their labor market outcomes. Future changes in the distribution of SCD levels among veterans will translate into changes in the demand for higher education. Also, the high responsiveness to a more generous financial aid for higher education among disabled veterans may provide useful insights into the effective design of similar subsidies for civilian disabled populations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 59-91
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1945427
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1945427
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# input file: GDPE_A_1928850_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Jaime Millán-Quijano
Author-X-Name-First: Jaime
Author-X-Name-Last: Millán-Quijano
Title: Notes on Optimal Reintegration Contracts
Abstract: 
 Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) programs are known to be a necessary component to achieve sustainable peace after an armed conflict. The main goal of this type of program is to help the transition for former soldiers from war to a sustainable legal economic activity. However, due to weak institutions and poor design and implementation, such programs often result in many former soldiers ending up unemployed, in criminal activities, or returning to armed rebel groups. In this paper, I propose an optimal reintegration contract using tools from unemployment insurance literature. In this model, a principal (government) collects taxes from the community to fund a reintegration program that gives incentives to agents (insurgent soldiers) to leave war and search for a job. I describe how information asymmetries and the conditions of labor and crime markets shape the benefits scheme offered by the principal and the selection of insurgents who join the reintegration program.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 36-58
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1928850
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1928850
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# input file: GDPE_A_1952503_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Hasan Isomitdinov
Author-X-Name-First: Hasan
Author-X-Name-Last: Isomitdinov
Author-Name: Junsoo Lee
Author-X-Name-First: Junsoo
Author-X-Name-Last: Lee
Author-Name: James E. Payne
Author-X-Name-First: James E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Payne
Title: Comovements in Military Spending: Evidence from a Dynamic Factor Model with Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility
Abstract: 
 This study examines the trend and comovements of military expenditures across 70 countries from 1967 to 2018. While previous research recognizes the degree of cross-correlations using principal components analysis, we adopt a dynamic factor model with time-varying stochastic volatility to examine the trend and comovements in military spending. Specifically, the dynamic factor model allows us to partition the trend of military spending into global, regional, and country-specific components. We find significant evidence of the global factor that explains a considerable portion of the variation in military spending across countries. Moreover, our findings reveal a significant time variation in the importance of the global factor. We also show the presence of regional and country-specific factors in the military spending of countries, but the importance of the regional factor is less than that of the global and country-specific factors. Additionally, we find that countries under consideration are becoming less exposed to global influences with respect to their decisions in military spending over time.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 13-35
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1952503
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1952503
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# input file: GDPE_A_1946894_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Brian Urlacher
Author-X-Name-First: Brian
Author-X-Name-Last: Urlacher
Title: State Building and Peace Agreement Implementation
Abstract: 
 It is often argued that rebuilding state capacity following intrastate conflict will serve to stabilize the post-conflict environment. Past scholarship has sought to formally model the effect of rising state capacity.  Yet, two models of post-conflict environments produce conflicting expectations for the effect of state capacity on the commitment problem and the prospect for peace agreement implementation. This project summarizes the core logic of the two models, compares and contrasts their assumptions, and derives a set of hypotheses about the implementation of peace agreements. These hypotheses are tested using data from the Peace Accords Matrix. The empirical findings indicate that increases in military capacity are associated with lower levels of peace agreement implementation. However, increases in state capacity related to the rule of law are associated with higher levels of implementation. The starting level of coercive and administrative capacity appears to be uncorrelated with the degree to which peace agreements are implemented. This finding points to a possible early warning for peace agreement breakdown. Likewise, it suggests that state building may be less a driver of post-conflict success than it is a manifestation of the preferences of key actors.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 112-127
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1946894
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1946894
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# input file: GDPE_A_2001620_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Nicholas Creel
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas
Author-X-Name-Last: Creel
Title: An Unchained Dog of War: An Examination of the Lack of Constraint on Presidential Uses of Force in the Modern Era
Abstract: 
 Research on the constraint President’s face in matters of foreign policy is generally of the view that they are largely free to do as they please. Some research however posits that Congressional constrain on the executive is in fact much larger than it is given credit for. Using their research as a jumping off point, I re-examine this matter by asking when the President will seek ex ante Congressional authorization for the use of force. I estimate this potential effect of Congressional constraint on the President by looking at US initiated militarized interstate disputes with at least one fatality. In so doing, it is demonstrated that no Congressional constrain exists in this regard; the President rarely seeks ex ante authorization for the use of force and is therefore not truly constrained in its use. In fact, evidence is brought to bear that if anything the diversionary theory of war initiation may hold water; inflation is shown herein to be negatively linked to ex ante Congressional authorization for the use of force. It seems as though the President is less likely to ask Congress for permission to conduct deadly military operations when inflation is high.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-12
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2001620
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2001620
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# input file: GDPE_A_1880721_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Marcos Sanso-Navarro
Author-X-Name-First: Marcos
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanso-Navarro
Author-Name: Fernando Sanz Gracia
Author-X-Name-First: Fernando
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanz Gracia
Author-Name: María Vera-Cabello
Author-X-Name-First: María
Author-X-Name-Last: Vera-Cabello
Title: Terrorism Determinants, Model Uncertainty and Space in Colombia
Abstract: 
 This paper studies the determinants of terrorism at the sub-national level in Colombia during 2001–2014. In order to establish robust relationships, a Bayesian model averaging framework has been implemented using departmental data. We find that the violence suffered by this country is linked to economic factors, especially labor market outcomes. The results obtained are not significantly altered by the use of relative measures of terror, the specification of alternative parameters and model priors or the presence of spatial dependence. The main conclusion drawn from our analysis is that an appropriate strategy to fight against terrorism in similar contexts is to increase its opportunity cost. This might be achieved through the promotion of inclusive socioeconomic development, primarily in rural areas.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 92-111
Issue: 1
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1880721
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1880721
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# input file: GDPE_A_2023845_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Andrew Greenland
Author-X-Name-First: Andrew
Author-X-Name-Last: Greenland
Author-Name: David A. Savage
Author-X-Name-First: David A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Savage
Title: Shooting the Economy in the Foot: The Economic Effects of School Shootings in America
Abstract: 
 The legacy of the 1999 Columbine School shooting has resulted in increased political elements in subsequent shootings and the line between these school shooters and terrorists has blurred. Current research comparing terrorists and school shooters has largely focused on the similarities between the perpetrators using largely qualitative methods. With the behavioural and subsequent economic impacts of terrorism having been previously identified, this paper investigates if these behavioural changes and impacts are present following school shootings. Through the use of a logit regression of historical school shooting data, we find evidence that support our theories that school shootings cause fear and change consumer behaviours.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 129-141
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2023845
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2023845
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# input file: GDPE_A_1969112_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Deniz Güvercin
Author-X-Name-First: Deniz
Author-X-Name-Last: Güvercin
Title: Armed Conflict and Its Repercussions on Population Growth: The Turkish Case
Abstract: 
 The study empirically examines the impact of armed conflict on population growth in Eastern Turkey. The empirical findings confirm the implications of the theoretical model in the body of the paper. The results indicate that PKK recruitment leads to depopulation at the district level while increases rural population growth. Moreover, the results indicate that the number of killed PKK militants in the province to which a district belongs negatively affects population growth at the district level. On the other hand, the results also indicate that number of killed PKK militants does not significantly affect the population growth at the district level while decreases rural population growth. The results show that the percentage of valid votes to registered voters increases the population growth at the district level.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 244-257
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1969112
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1969112
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# input file: GDPE_A_1949830_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Yang-Ming Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Yang-Ming
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Author-Name: Manaf Sellak
Author-X-Name-First: Manaf
Author-X-Name-Last: Sellak
Title: Endogenous Security, Third-Party Trade, and Interstate Disputes: A Conflict-Theoretic Analysis
Abstract: 
 This paper examines third-party trade and its implications for conflicts between hostile countries not engaging in trade. We present a conflict-theoretic model to analyze two adversaries’ endogenous arming decisions when they separately establish a free trade agreement (FTA) with a neutral third-party state. We contrast this multiple FTAs regime with a single FTA regime between one adversary and the third-party state, which excludes the other adversary as a non-member. In our analysis, the benchmark case is a protectionist regime when the bilateral trade between the third-party state and each of the adversaries is a tariff war. Among the three trade regimes, we show that the two adversaries’ aggregate arming is the lowest under multiple FTAs but is the highest under a single FTA. These results suggest that, despite no trade between two adversary countries, multiple FTAs through third-party trade have the pacifying or appeasing effect of lowering overall military buildups in interstate conflicts.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 160-182
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1949830
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1949830
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# input file: GDPE_A_2007638_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Shikha Basnet Silwal
Author-X-Name-First: Shikha
Author-X-Name-Last: Basnet Silwal
Title: The Economics of Looting and Destruction of Cultural Heritage Sites and Objects
Abstract: 
 This study discusses a topic that is relatively understudied in economics: looting and destruction of cultural heritage sites and objects during epochs of violence. While economic literature on culture, cultural practices, and cultural institutions is long-standing, overlooked are the economic motivations for heritage (a material expression of culture) destruction, the economic consequences of the destruction, and potential policies for prevention from future destruction. Heritage objects during peace times turn into blood antiquities during violent conflicts. Illicit excavations in one country garnish museums in another. Covering a bird’s-eye view of these topics, the study also highlights prospects for future economic research and reiterates a unique opportunity cultural heritage reconstruction may provide for reconciliation in post-conflict countries.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 214-227
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2007638
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2007638
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# input file: GDPE_A_1987022_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Ron Matthews
Author-X-Name-First: Ron
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews
Author-Name: Rashid Al-Saadi
Author-X-Name-First: Rashid
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Saadi
Title: Organisational Complexity of the Eurofighter Typhoon Collaborative Supply Chain
Abstract: 
 The European Union (EU) promotes arms collaboration as a stepping-stone towards the evolution of an integrated European defence technology and industrial base. It will necessarily comprise prime contractors and their attendant supply chains, with the latter particularly important because they represent a refined regional division of labour, promoting efficiencies through skill-based specialisation. Paradoxically, however, Europe’s largest military aerospace collaborative venture, the Eurofighter Typhoon, possesses a complex supply chain subject to political and institutional strictures, as well as potential inefficiencies. Partner nations prioritise national sovereignty objectives through duplicated assembly lines and work allocation arrangements based on juste retour (fair share) rather than market-driven competitiveness criteria. The purpose of this paper, then, is to explore Typhoon’s supply chain complexity, especially the impact of juste retour policy. The findings from this analysis will highlight important policy issues influencing the future supply chain model of Europe’s successor 6th-Generation fighter programme.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 228-243
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1987022
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1987022
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# input file: GDPE_A_1954743_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Michael Becker
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Becker
Title: Futile or Farsighted? Domestic Politics, Leader Replacement, and the Nature of Lopsided Conflicts
Abstract: 
 In an important subset of armed conflicts, there is a large disparity between the belligerents’ capabilities. Although the outcomes of such wars cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, the chances that a weak state will triumph are often so low that private information is not a satisfying explanation for conflict. Under which circumstances, then, does the disadvantaged side give in rather than attempting to fight? And what explains variation in effort levels by strong states? I present a model of an environment in which a strong state faces political pressure to replace the losing government following a costly war. I show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the effort the winning state devotes to the war and the probability that the losing state surrenders – when war effort is low, the weaker state fights because it has a decent chance of winning; when it is high, the weak state fights because it recognizes that it will be replaced upon surrender. Further results are derived to explain the domestic political foundations of variation in strong states’ investments in lopsided conflicts. The results help rationalize a number of historical instances of lopsided conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 183-198
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1954743
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1954743
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# input file: GDPE_A_2027183_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Md. Nasir Uddin
Author-X-Name-First: Md. Nasir
Author-X-Name-Last: Uddin
Author-Name: Saran Sarntisart
Author-X-Name-First: Saran
Author-X-Name-Last: Sarntisart
Title: The Schooling Gap between the Deep South and the Rest of the South in Thailand
Abstract: 
 This paper aims to compare the educational attainment of a conflict region (the Deep South) and a non-conflict region (the rest of the South) of Thailand using the Socio-Economic Survey, 2015. This paper employs the Instrumental Variable approach and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition in an intergenerational regression model. When controlling parental schooling, household income and size, religion, and gender, the results show that children from the Deep South obtain almost one year less schooling than children from the rest of the Southern region. Interestingly, Muslims are ahead in terms of educational attainment when compared to non-Muslims in the non-conflict region, but not in the conflict region. Females outperform males in both regions, but the coefficient of female dummy is higher in the non-conflict region. Moreover, the rate of intergenerational transmission of educational attainment is higher in the Deep South compared to that in the rest of the southern region, which may lead to long-term educational inequality in the Deep South region. The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition confirms that the 40% schooling gap between these two regions is unexplained but might be due to the chronic social unrest. The findings of this paper show that customized educational reforms and policies to resolve the conflict in the Deep South of Thailand should be employed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 199-213
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2027183
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2027183
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# input file: GDPE_A_1991128_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Pieter Balcaen
Author-X-Name-First: Pieter
Author-X-Name-Last: Balcaen
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind
Author-X-Name-Last: Du Bois
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Title: Sharing the Burden of Hybrid Threats: Lessons from the Economics of Alliances
Abstract: 
 This article discusses the effects of the changing (hybrid) conflict environment on the burden sharing debate. We discuss the actions taken by both the alliance as the member states in repelling these threats, arguing that this mainly produces security outputs that are private or impure public. As the burden sharing literature currently lacks notions of hybrid threats, we believe the current modelling to be ill-suited to provide reliable assessments of member states’ burden sharing behaviour. We address this void by adjusting the Joint Product Model, extending a country’s security activities to a more inclusive ‘whole of government (WoG) approach’. We depart from this WoG model to stress the challenges associated with comparing the contributions of member states in countering these threats. This leads us to dispute the use of aggregate military expenditures as a main variable to measure a country’s degree of free riding. More and other types of (non-military) variables and proxy-indexes should be taken into account. The same remark goes for estimating the benefit-burden concordance within this framework of permanent non-linear state competition.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 142-159
Issue: 2
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1991128
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1991128
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# input file: GDPE_A_2007338_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Wafa Souffargi
Author-X-Name-First: Wafa
Author-X-Name-Last: Souffargi
Author-Name: Adel Boubaker
Author-X-Name-First: Adel
Author-X-Name-Last: Boubaker
Title: The Effects of Rising Terrorism on a Small Capital Market: Evidence from Tunisia
Abstract: 
 The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the impact of the rising terrorist threat on the performance of a small capitalization market – the Tunisian stock market-. Using an event study methodology as well as conditional volatility, we investigate the impact of recent terrorist attacks in Tunisia on the general index TUNINDEX and sector indices. Our main findings are as follows. First, we find that terrorist attacks negatively affect the Tunisian stock market. However, the decline – considerable in certain cases- is short-lived: the market recovers from terrorist shocks in one day. Second, Oil and Gas, Insurance and Telecommunications, are the most affected sectors. Third, different terrorist tactics have varied effects on the stock market that leads us to conclude that attack type, weapon type, target type, and severity of the attack may determine the market’s reactions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 323-342
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2007338
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2007338
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# input file: GDPE_A_2008190_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Petter Y. Lindgren
Author-X-Name-First: Petter Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lindgren
Author-Name: Ane Ofstad Presterud
Author-X-Name-First: Ane
Author-X-Name-Last: Ofstad Presterud
Title: High Unemployment and the Armed Forces: The Costs and Benefits of Recruiting Military Personnel in Norway
Abstract: 
 The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions by governments to reduce the transmission of the coronavirus, and adjusted consumer behaviors have resulted in high unemployment rates worldwide. In this paper, we explore whether the Norwegian Armed Forces can exploit this period of high unemployment to strengthen security and defense in Norway while increasing the job opportunities for young individuals in a difficult labor market. Before the pandemic, the Norwegian government had planned to gradually increase the number of personnel in the armed forces. Hence, an expedited recruitment strategy may improve welfare. We calculate the costs and benefits to Norwegian society of a strategy that exploits the hike in unemployment rates to recruit new personnel to the armed forces at a faster rate. We find that the expedited recruitment strategy will likely provide net benefits to society if the unemployed have a fair chance of being employed. However, we stress that there must be a real need for higher defense spending, it is difficult to estimate the economic value of defense production, and there may be a trade-off between the goals of labor market policies and those of defense policies.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 360-384
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2008190
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2008190
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# input file: GDPE_A_2031691_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Stefan Markowski
Author-X-Name-First: Stefan
Author-X-Name-Last: Markowski
Author-Name: Jurgen Brauer
Author-X-Name-First: Jurgen
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer
Author-Name: Keith Hartley
Author-X-Name-First: Keith
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley
Title: Augustine Investments and Weapons Systems
Abstract: 
 Augustine weapons systems are proposed as a new class of investment good. They have distinctive economic characteristics (technology intensive, high and rising unit costs, and declining volumes) leading to extensive changes in armed forces’ arsenals including the progressive replacement of military bulk with ever-smaller volumes of increasingly complex, capable, but also expensive weapons systems. While much has been written about their costs, there remain gaps in our understanding of their investment rationale and the modus operandi of their procurement. We distinguish between incremental and transformative Augustine weapons systems and discuss their investment rationale. We show that further understanding of Augustine weapons systems is obtained by using Lancaster’s model of product characteristics and the real investment options framework. Some civilian parallels are also discussed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 293-307
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2031691
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2031691
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# input file: GDPE_A_1994114_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Sunhee Park
Author-X-Name-First: Sunhee
Author-X-Name-Last: Park
Title: Understanding Bargaining Behavior during Civil War: How Third-party Enforcement Affects Groups’ Bargaining Offers
Abstract: 
 This paper provides a new approach to studying the behavior of groups engaged in civil war termination bargaining by focusing on the commitment problem. Extending the basic Rubinstein bargaining model, the model presented here has the added feature of a reneging option for the stronger group after an agreement is reached. This leads to the prediction that when groups expect the absence of an enforcement mechanism, the stronger group makes a larger concession, while the weaker group makes a more demanding offer, than would be expected according to the relative power dynamic between groups. On the other hand, when groups expect that a third-party peace operator will enforce an agreement, groups’ offers more closely reflect their relative power situation. To illustrate the causal process of groups’ bargaining behavior, five bargaining attempts during Sierra Leone’s civil wars from 1991 to 2002 are examined.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 343-359
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1994114
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1994114
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# input file: GDPE_A_1957191_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Sajjad F. Dizaji
Author-X-Name-First: Sajjad F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Dizaji
Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan
Title: Democracy and Militarization in Developing Countries: A Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis
Abstract: 
 This study examines the dynamic relationship between democracy and the military in more than 40 developing countries from 1990 to 2017. We investigate the dynamic interaction between democracy and military institutions using a panel vector autoregressive model and impulse response functions as well as variance decomposition analyses. We show that democracy plays a significant role in the substitution of nonmilitary expenditures for defense expenditures. We also investigate the response of democracy to positive shocks in military and nonmilitary expenditures. We find that the responses of political systems and different indexes of democracy including electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian democracy to positive shocks in military expenditures are negative and significant, whereas their responses to the shocks in nonmilitary expenditures are not significant. This result suggests that the political behavior of governments in developing countries is influenced more heavily by their spending on the military sector than by their spending on the nonmilitary sector.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 272-292
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1957191
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1957191
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# input file: GDPE_A_2003530_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Jordan Becker
Author-X-Name-First: Jordan
Author-X-Name-Last: Becker
Author-Name: J Paul Dunne
Author-X-Name-First: J Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunne
Title: Military Spending Composition and Economic Growth
Abstract: 
 In the large literature on military spending and growth, the heterogeneity of the categories of expenditure is seldom considered. Military spending is used to pay for a variety of things, including salaries, large weapon systems, and physical infrastructure, along with ongoing operations, training, and readiness - each of which might be expected to have different implications for economic growth. One reason for the focus on aggregate spending is the lack of disaggregated cross-country data, but there are some data available from NATO and the EU that break military spending into personnel, equipment, infrastructure and other expenditures (primarily operations and maintenance). This paper uses these data, available for 34 countries, for as many as 49 years, to investigate whether the composition of military budgets affects economic growth. Estimating standard growth models with this data it finds that as expected there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of the different components. Specifically, the negative correlation between military spending and growth found in recent studies is primarily driven by personnel expenditures, and - slightly less clearly - by operating expenditures.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 259-271
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2003530
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2003530
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# input file: GDPE_A_2007333_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Jianbai Huang
Author-X-Name-First: Jianbai
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang
Author-Name: Yingli Li
Author-X-Name-First: Yingli
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Muhammad Tahir Suleman
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Tahir
Author-X-Name-Last: Suleman
Author-Name: Hongwei Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Hongwei
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Title: Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Gold Market Return Dynamics: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-quantiles Approach
Abstract: 
 This study uses a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to investigate the causal relationship between the gold market and geopolitical risks from 4 January 2000, to 17 November 2017, using high-frequency data. The results indicated that geopolitical risks affect volatility rather than returns in the gold market. We also decompose intraday volatility into continuous and discontinuous jump components and find that geopolitical risks have stronger causality with the jump component under bear and normal market conditions. The results show, moreover, that the effects of geopolitical risks on realized volatility are asymmetric. Lastly, we divide the entire sample into four major geopolitical events (i.e. the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Irap invasion, the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and Paris attacks) and find that the effect of these events on the gold market varied by type and scope.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 308-322
Issue: 3
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2007333
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2007333
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# input file: GDPE_A_2038435_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Josselin Droff
Author-X-Name-First: Josselin
Author-X-Name-Last: Droff
Author-Name: Julien Malizard
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard
Author-Name: Maxime Menuet
Author-X-Name-First: Maxime
Author-X-Name-Last: Menuet
Title: Military Operations Abroad in the Long Run: An Economic Approach
Abstract: 
 In recent decades, many western countries engaged in Military Operations Abroad (MOA), sometimes with over-stretching military engagements such as antiterrorism, peacekeeping, or humanitarian interventions. These aggressive postures pose a heightened risk to future deployment capacities and the ability to ensure a deterrence strategy in the long run. This study investigates a theoretical model to analyze the sustainability of military operations over time. In our setup, we define military capacity as a stock variable that can regenerate itself and deplete when a country engages in MOA. We present a sustainability theorem with the identification of tipping points in the conduct of MOA. Especially, engaging in excessive military operations leads to a relative ‘demilitarization syndrome.’ This underlines a fundamental trade-off between economic conditions and strategic ambitions. The model sheds some light on the dynamics of the military capabilities of a group of major western military powers.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 456-476
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2038435
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2038435
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# input file: GDPE_A_2051953_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Keith Hartley
Author-X-Name-First: Keith
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley
Title: Costs and Prices of UK Military Aircraft in War and Peace
Abstract: 
 Much of the literature on military aircraft unit costs is based on US data. This article adds to our knowledge by using an original data set for UK military aircraft costs, profits and prices. A distinction is made between unit costs within a generation of aircraft and between generations. Four research questions are addressed. First, is the UK aircraft industry a decreasing cost industry; second, are new entrants higher cost suppliers; third, what is the evidence on profitability in war and peace and between new entrants and original developers; fourth, what is the UK evidence on Augustine-type cost escalation and on the efficiency of aircraft procurement in war and peace? The UK aircraft industry was found to be a decreasing cost industry reflecting both scale and learning economies. Typically, new entrants were higher cost suppliers and profit rates were higher in peace-time. There was substantial Augustine cost escalation for UK combat aircraft and doubts are raised about the efficiency of military aircraft procurement.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 512-526
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2051953
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2051953
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# input file: GDPE_A_2007334_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Aleksandar Kešeljević
Author-X-Name-First: Aleksandar
Author-X-Name-Last: Kešeljević
Author-Name: Rok Spruk
Author-X-Name-First: Rok
Author-X-Name-Last: Spruk
Title: Long-Term Effects of Yugoslav War
Abstract: 
 We examine the long-term effects of civil war in former Yugoslavia on economic growth and development. To this end, we employ the synthetic control methodology, and estimate the missing counterfactual scenario for the long-run growth and development of former Yugoslav republics, in the absence of the civil war by matching their growth and development characteristics with non-Yugoslav countries at the similar stages of development. The results suggest that the civil war led to unprecedented long-run growth and development losses. In the absence of the war, per capita income levels of former Yugoslav republics would improve markedly with notable differences in the magnitude of the growth and development gains across the affected countries. The estimated effects of the civil war are robust to a large number of placebo checks, and falsification-based random permutation tests. The results show that not a single former Yugoslav republic down to the present day has achieved the level of per capita income predicted by their synthetic control groups in the years preceding the civil war. Our results show that the Yugoslav civil war appears to be a permanent institutional shock with long-lasting implications for economic growth and development.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 410-436
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.2007334
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.2007334
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# input file: GDPE_A_2034103_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Osama D. Sweidan
Author-X-Name-First: Osama D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sweidan
Title: The Effect of the US Macroeconomic Indicators on the International Geopolitical Risk
Abstract: 
 The recent economic literature concludes that geopolitical risk has significantly impacted various economic variables over the past years. This paper focuses on a new dimension and seeks to answer if the US major macroeconomic indicators affect the international geopolitical risk (GPR). Based on our knowledge, there is no such study conducted so far, and thus, we propose to fill this gap. We constructed a theoretical framework and estimated an econometric model using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology and quarterly data (1973–2020). The results show a statistically significant effect of the US macroeconomic variables on the GPR. The long-run results are decisive and unique, while the short-run influences are mixed in significance levels and signs. Hence, the short-run impact may differ over time and its final impact depends on the outweighing effect between the harmful and beneficial outcomes. The findings prove that a dominant country with economic and political powers can influence the GPR. From a policy implication side, we affirm that globalization should proceed side by side with cooperation and coordination among nations to solve economic glitches. Otherwise, geopolitical risk will make the economic performance worse.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 495-511
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2034103
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2034103
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# input file: GDPE_A_2031445_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Amal Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Amal
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Title: Land for Peace? Game Theory and the Strategic Impediments to a Resolution in Israel-Palestine
Abstract: 
 Why have Israel and the Palestinians failed to implement a ‘land for peace’ solution, along the lines of the Oslo Accords? This paper studies the application of strategic behavior models, in the form of games, to this question. I show that existing models of the conflict largely rely on unrealistic assumptions about what the main actors are trying to achieve. Specifically, they assume that Israel is strategically interested in withdrawing from the occupied territories pending resolvable security concerns but that it is obstructed from doing so by violent Palestinians with other objectives. I use historical analysis along with bargaining theory to shed doubt on this assumption and to argue that the persistence of conflict has been aligned with, not contrary to, the interests of the militarily powerful party, Israel. The analysis helps explain, from a strategic behavior perspective, why resolutions like the Oslo Accords, which rely on the land for peace paradigm and on self-enforcement, have failed to create peace.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 385-409
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2031445
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2031445
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# input file: GDPE_A_2053369_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Mónica Domínguez Sánchez
Author-X-Name-First: Mónica
Author-X-Name-Last: Domínguez Sánchez
Author-Name: Antonio Fonfría
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio
Author-X-Name-Last: Fonfría
Title: Measuring Productivity of the Spanish Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 This paper analyses the determinants of productivity and its evolution over time, of the main sectors that conform the Spanish defence industry. The analysis is based on the selection of factors that describe the situation of the industrial sectors. As inputs, the following are used: direct sales to the Spanish Ministry of Defence and international defence sales. From the output side the number of employees. The data is a panel for the period over 2010-2017. According to the results obtained, the sectors show a variation in productivity with a tight increasing trend of 0.4%.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 527-545
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2053369
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2053369
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# input file: GDPE_A_1984030_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Duygu Yolcu Karadam
Author-X-Name-First: Duygu
Author-X-Name-Last: Yolcu Karadam
Author-Name: Nadir Öcal
Author-X-Name-First: Nadir
Author-X-Name-Last: Öcal
Author-Name: Jülide Yildirim
Author-X-Name-First: Jülide
Author-X-Name-Last: Yildirim
Title: Distinct Asymmetric Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth for Different Income Groups of Countries
Abstract: 
 Although possible asymmetries for univariate and multivariate dynamics have been the focus of interest in many areas of economic explorations, it seems that most of the research on military expenditure - economic growth nexus has tended to assume linear relationships. This paper aims to examine possible nonlinearities in military expenditure-economic growth nexus employing data for a sample of 103 countries covering the 1988-2019 period. For this purpose, Panel Smooth Transition Regression, PSTR, models are estimated not only for all countries’ sample but also for low income, middle income, and high-income countries’ subsamples to reveal possible distinct asymmetric relationships for country groups with different income levels. Empirical results for the whole sample, low income and middle income groups indicate that military expenditure not only governs the regime change, but also low and high levels of military expenditure have distinctive and rising negative effects on economic growth with dissimilar threshold effects. Moreover, empirical findings also indicate that net arms exports govern regime change for high income countries, and as net arms exports rise, the negative impacts of military expenditure on economic growth become deeper.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 477-494
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1984030
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2021.1984030
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# input file: GDPE_A_2050022_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Mehmet Gurses
Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet
Author-X-Name-Last: Gurses
Author-Name: T. David Mason
Author-X-Name-First: T. David
Author-X-Name-Last: Mason
Title: Civil War Outcomes and Egalitarian Democracy in Post-Civil War States: A Cross-National Analysis, 1946-2018
Abstract: 
 While a growing body of research has highlighted a significant and positive relationship between negotiated peace agreements and postwar democratization, they have focused almost exclusively on a minimalist form of electoral democracy. We extend this analysis to consideration of how civil war outcomes affect egalitarian democracy, which measures the extent to which the regime incorporates (1) equal protection of rights and freedoms, (2) equal distribution of resources, and (3) equal access to power. We add V-Dem egalitarian democracy measures to the UCDP Conflict Termination dataset to determine whether civil war outcomes account for just the emergence of electoral democracy or whether they also affect the prospects for a more just and equitable society for citizens at the grassroots level. Our findings highlight the need to qualify the effect of modes of war termination on postwar democratization. Peace agreements are followed by higher levels of democratization than is the case with other civil war outcomes, but the effect on egalitarian democracy is more durable than the effect on electoral democracy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 437-455
Issue: 4
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2050022
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2050022
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# input file: GDPE_A_2073430_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Edward Hunter Christie
Author-X-Name-First: Edward Hunter
Author-X-Name-Last: Christie
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind
Author-X-Name-Last: Du Bois
Title: Demand for Military Expenditures and Security Alignment Choices in the Indo-Pacific
Abstract: 
 We explore the possibilities and limitations of models of the demand for military expenditures, as against additional kinds of cross-country analyses, with an empirical focus on the Indo-Pacific region. Our research bridges a gap between the Defence Economics and International Relations literatures by developing testable security alignment hypotheses and by testing these hypotheses in three ways: with demand modelling on total expenditures, with analyses on estimated stocks of imported armaments, and with qualitative analyses of trends in defence cooperation between states. We find consistent evidence across research methods of an increase in threat perceptions towards China since around 2012 and of balancing behaviour by US allies and by two non-allies. As compared to standard demand modelling, our hypothesis-based mixed methods approach allows for a clearer treatment of samples with mixed and shifting security alignments and of states that stabilise or reduce expenditures in the face of rising threat perceptions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 581-602
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2073430
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2073430
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# input file: GDPE_A_2074714_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Lasme Mathieu N’dri
Author-X-Name-First: Lasme Mathieu
Author-X-Name-Last: N’dri
Author-Name: Makoto Kakinaka
Author-X-Name-First: Makoto
Author-X-Name-Last: Kakinaka
Title: Corruption, ICT and Military Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract: 
 It has been argued that large military spending is often a crucial constraint in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, and high corruption has enabled these countries to keep such large military spending. One possible remedy is to promote information and communication technology (ICT), which may cause the anti-corruption policies to become more effective in increasing transparency for the public and reducing unnecessary and abusive military spending. This study discusses the nexus among corruption, military spending, and ICT with a panel data of 48 SSA countries from 2003 to 2015. Our analysis reveals that when ICT prevails, military spending is negatively associated with the control of corruption, so that anti-corruption policies with the usage of ICT could reduce the extravagant budget allocation to military spending. Policymakers should associate sound ICT policy with traditional anti-corruption factors to bring more transparency and less corrupt behaviors in the military department. The reduction in the misuse of military allocation enables the country to increase nonmilitary public spending to face sustainable development challenges for the sake of the population.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 603-617
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2074714
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2074714
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# input file: GDPE_A_2041845_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Jonas Send
Author-X-Name-First: Jonas
Author-X-Name-Last: Send
Title: Contest Copycats: Adversarial Duplication of Effort in Contests
Abstract: 
 Participants in an innovation contest may steal their opponents’ ideas to enhance their chance of winning. To model this, I introduce the ability to copy another player’s effort in a Tullock contest between two players. I characterise the unique equilibrium in this game dependent on the cost of copying and one of the players’ productivity advantage. If the cost of copying is low, the less productive player is more likely to win the contest. The model’s comparative statics have important implications for governments who subsidise firms in contests and for contest designers.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 684-703
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2041845
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2041845
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# input file: GDPE_A_2061837_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Marc Helbling
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Helbling
Author-Name: Daniel Meierrieks
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Meierrieks
Author-Name: Sergi Pardos-Prado
Author-X-Name-First: Sergi
Author-X-Name-Last: Pardos-Prado
Title: Terrorism and Immigration Policy Preferences
Abstract: 
 What is the causal impact of terrorism on immigration policy preferences? Under what circumstances and due to which psychological micro-mechanisms does this impact materialize? To answer these questions, we provide evidence from pre-registered and well-powered experiments for Germany and the United Kingdom. We find that anti-immigration responses to terrorism follow an emotional proximity rationale: terrorism leads to more restrictive migration policy preferences only among individuals with high levels of perceived insecurity, especially when terrorism occurs in their own country. Policy preferences are not affected by terrorism abroad or by information cues on the objectively low probability of being victimized.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 646-659
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2061837
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2061837
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# input file: GDPE_A_2066420_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Jan Nyssen
Author-X-Name-First: Jan
Author-X-Name-Last: Nyssen
Author-Name: Emnet Negash
Author-X-Name-First: Emnet
Author-X-Name-Last: Negash
Author-Name: Bert Van Schaeybroeck
Author-X-Name-First: Bert
Author-X-Name-Last: Van Schaeybroeck
Author-Name: Kiara Haegeman
Author-X-Name-First: Kiara
Author-X-Name-Last: Haegeman
Author-Name: Sofie Annys
Author-X-Name-First: Sofie
Author-X-Name-Last: Annys
Title: Crop Cultivation at Wartime – Plight and Resilience of Tigray’s Agrarian Society (North Ethiopia)
Abstract: 
 During the 2021 conflict in Tigray (north Ethiopia), crop cultivation has been hampered by warfare. Oxen have been looted and killed, farm inputs and tools destroyed by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers. Farmers felt vulnerable out in the open with their oxen. To produce, farmers evaluated risks involved with ploughing and organised lookouts. Overall, a large part of the land had been tilled in difficult conditions, and crops sown that require minimal management, without fertiliser, what led to low yields. True Colour Composite images, produced from Sentinel satellite imagery show that smallholder irrigation schemes were operational. There was a shift from commercial crops to cereals. The situation in western Tigray was particular, as there has been ethnic cleansing of the population and often the 2020 rainfed crops had even not been harvested. Overall, our findings show that the Tigrayan smallholder farming system is resilient, thanks to community self-organisation, combining common strategies of agrarian societies in wartime: spatio-temporal shift in agricultural activities to avoid the proximity with soldiers and shifts in crop types. Rather unique is the relying on communal aid, while the blockade of the Tigray region made that outmigration and off-farm income were no options for the farmers.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 618-645
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2066420
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2066420
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# input file: GDPE_A_2037829_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Olivier Chanel
Author-X-Name-First: Olivier
Author-X-Name-Last: Chanel
Author-Name: Stéphanie Vincent Lyk-Jensen
Author-X-Name-First: Stéphanie Vincent
Author-X-Name-Last: Lyk-Jensen
Author-Name: Jean-Christophe Vergnaud
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Christophe
Author-X-Name-Last: Vergnaud
Title: Does Affective Forecasting Error Induce Changes in Preferences? Lessons from Danish Soldiers Anticipating Combat in Afghanistan
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates how affective forecasting errors (A.F.E.s), the difference between anticipated emotion and the emotion actually experienced, may induce changes in preferences on time, risk and occupation after combat. Building on psychological theories incorporating the role of emotion in decision-making, we designed a before-and-after-mission survey for Danish soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2011. Our hypothesis of an effect from A.F.E.s is tested by controlling for other mechanisms that may also change preferences: immediate emotion, trauma effect – proxied by post-traumatic stress disorder (P.T.S.D.) – and changes in wealth and risk perception. At the aggregate level, results show stable preferences before and after mission. We find positive A.F.E.s for all three emotions studied (fear, anxiety and excitement), with anticipated emotions stronger than those actually experienced. We provide evidence that positive A.F.E.s regarding fear significantly increase risk tolerance and impatience, while positive A.F.E.s regarding excitement strengthen the will to stay in the military. Trauma has no impact on these preferences.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 660-683
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2037829
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2037829
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# input file: GDPE_A_2129128_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Diego Lopes da Silva
Author-X-Name-First: Diego
Author-X-Name-Last: Lopes da Silva
Title: Political Accountability and Military Spending
Abstract: 
 Over the past two decades, evidence on the relationship between democratization and reductions in military spending has accumulated. This association has proven to be robust to a wide variety of specifications and samples. Nevertheless, there remain two important gaps in our understanding of this relationship. Firstly, while most studies argue that democratic political institutions constrain the incumbents’ power to allocate resources to the military, there is still disagreement about which institution. Second, empirical evidence on causality is very scarce. Endogeneity remains a difficult problem to grapple with. To address these issues, I specify a clear set of channels of interaction linking democratic political institutions to military spending. Following previous work, I also argue that political accountability constrains allocations to the military. However, I distinguish three types of accountability: horizontal, vertical and diagonal. I find that diagonal accountability is the strongest mechanism. Furthermore, I use a country’s accumulated experience with political accountability as an instrumental variable to tackle the endogeneity between political accountability and military spending. I find evidence suggesting that political accountability causes military spending as a share of GDP to fall.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 563-580
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2129128
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2129128
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# input file: GDPE_A_2221877_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Nan Tian
Author-X-Name-First: Nan
Author-X-Name-Last: Tian
Author-Name: Diego Lopes da Silva
Author-X-Name-First: Diego
Author-X-Name-Last: Lopes da Silva
Author-Name: Lucie Béraud-Sudreau
Author-X-Name-First: Lucie
Author-X-Name-Last: Béraud-Sudreau
Author-Name: Xiao Liang
Author-X-Name-First: Xiao
Author-X-Name-Last: Liang
Author-Name: Lorenzo Scarazzato
Author-X-Name-First: Lorenzo
Author-X-Name-Last: Scarazzato
Author-Name: Ana Assis
Author-X-Name-First: Ana
Author-X-Name-Last: Assis
Title: Developments in Military Expenditure and the Effects of the War in Ukraine
Abstract: 
 This article presents on trends in military spending, building on the most recent military expenditure data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). World military spending grew for the eighth consecutive year in 2022, up 3.7 per cent to an all-time high of $2240 billion. The increase in world spending in 2022 was largely due to three factors: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; the increase in military spending by Central and Western Europe countries as a reaction to the invasion and expenditure rises in major powers in Asia, namely China, India and Japan. There were two major military expenditure related developments in 2022 linked to the war in Ukraine. Firstly, Central and Western European responded to the deteriorating security situation by announcing plans to substantially increases their military spending. Some of the acutest increases in military spending took place in countries with close geographical proximity to Russia and Ukraine. Secondly were the immediate and record levels of military aid sent to Ukraine. Based on official figures for the largest donors and other assistance funds, at least $30 billion worth of military aid was given to Ukraine in 2022, with the US as the largest provider accounting for around two-thirds of all military aid
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 547-562
Issue: 5
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2221877
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2221877
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# input file: GDPE_A_2065186_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Anthony A. Mayberry
Author-X-Name-First: Anthony A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Mayberry
Title: The Economic Cost of A Nuclear Weapon: A Synthetic Control Approach
Abstract: 
 This study estimates the economic effects of nuclear weapons development efforts in Pakistan using synthetic control group methods. Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program in 1972 and conducted its first test in 1998. This paper focuses on the growth impacts during the 1973 to 1997 period, before Pakistan established itself as a nuclear power. I create a synthetic control group for Pakistan using Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 1950 to 1972. The impact of the nuclear weapons development program is measured as a treatment dummy for the years 1973–1997 in a Difference-in-Difference model. I find that Pakistan’s per capita GDP would have been an average of about $718 per year higher had the country not undertaken the effort to produce a nuclear weapon. This equates to per capita GDP being 27.8% lower on average over the 25-year weapons-development period. Results are robust to several alternative specifications, including country exclusion, sparse synthetic controls, non-outcome characteristics as predictors of GDP, and in-space placebo experiments of differing specifications.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 747-766
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2065186
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2065186
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# input file: GDPE_A_2161739_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Amitai Gilad
Author-X-Name-First: Amitai
Author-X-Name-Last: Gilad
Author-Name: Asher Tishler
Author-X-Name-First: Asher
Author-X-Name-Last: Tishler
Title: Mitigating the Risk of Advanced Cyber Attacks: The Role of Quality, Covertness and Intensity of Use of Cyber Weapons
Abstract: 
 Modern countries employ computer networks that manage organizations in the private and public sectors. Cyber-attacks aim to disrupt, block, delete, manipulate or steal the data held in these networks, which challenge these countries’ national security. Consequently, cybersecurity programs must be developed to protect these networks from cyber-attacks in a manner that is similar to operations against terrorism. This study presents several models that analyze a contest between a network operator (defender) that deploys costly detectors to protect the network and a capable cyber attacker. Generally, when the deployed detectors become more potent or the defender exhibits higher vigilance, the attacker allocates more resources to R&D to ensure that the attack remains covert. We show that detectors may be substitutes, complements, or even degrade each other, implying that defenders must account for the cyber weapons’ characteristics and the attacker’s profile and strategic behavior. We derive the optimal number of detectors when the attacker’s R&D process features R&D spillovers and show that targeted detectors act as deterrents against high-quality weapons only if the attacker’s budget is not substantial. Finally, we demonstrate that common cybersecurity practices may be detrimental from a social-welfare perspective by enhancing an arms race with the attacker.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 726-746
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2161739
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2161739
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# input file: GDPE_A_2065187_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Puja Mukherjee
Author-X-Name-First: Puja
Author-X-Name-Last: Mukherjee
Author-Name: Soumyanetra Munshi
Author-X-Name-First: Soumyanetra
Author-X-Name-Last: Munshi
Title: Conflict with Third-Party Intervention and Revenge: A Game-Theoretic Exploration
Abstract: 
 Most real-world conflicts are characterised by the presence of third-party interventions as well as prolonged and revengeful violent interactions between the conflicting parties. However, most of the conflict literature studies the impact of each of these forces – third-party intervention and revenge motivations – on the conflict, in isolation from each other. This paper attempts to fill in this gap and aims to explore the impact of these two forces acting in conjunction with each other on a conflict situation. In fact, we also endogenise the intervention decision of the third party and explore parametric restrictions under which a third party decides to intervene (either as an ally of one of the conflicting parties or as an ‘idealist’ aiming to reduce overall conflict levels) and its repercussions on associated conflict levels. We also present narrative evidences of some real-life conflicts that amply exhibit the two forces of third-party intervention and revenge.Peace is the only battle worth waging. – Albert Camus
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 767-790
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2065187
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2065187
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# input file: GDPE_A_2067812_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Federico Carril-Caccia
Author-X-Name-First: Federico
Author-X-Name-Last: Carril-Caccia
Author-Name: Juliette Milgram-Baleix
Author-X-Name-First: Juliette
Author-X-Name-Last: Milgram-Baleix
Author-Name: Jordi Paniagua
Author-X-Name-First: Jordi
Author-X-Name-Last: Paniagua
Title: Does Terrorism Affect Foreign Greenfield Investments?
Abstract: 
 This work assesses the impact of terrorism suffered by a country on the capacity to attract foreign greenfield investments. To this end, we estimate a theoretically consistent structural gravity equation which accounts for several well-known estimation biases such as ‘home bias’, endogeneity and multilateral resistance. This specification makes it possible to identify the effect of a country-specific time-varying characteristic such as terrorism on bilateral foreign direct investment. We exploit a dataset that covers domestic and foreign investment of 182 countries in the period 2006-2016 on both the extensive and intensive margins. Our study finds that foreign investors are reluctant to invest in countries affected by terrorism and also reduce the amount of their investments in such cases. Sensitivity to terrorism is higher for foreign than for domestic investors. Terrorist attacks have a more intense impact on foreign investors’ decision-making when they are international or when these violent acts hurt governments. However, our results also evidence that good governance appears to be an effective tool for counterbalancing these damages in the eyes of foreign investors.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 827-844
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2067812
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2067812
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# input file: GDPE_A_2050040_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Stelios N. Markoulis
Author-X-Name-First: Stelios N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Markoulis
Title: 21st Century Evidence on the Effect of Terror Attacks on Eurozone Stock Markets
Abstract: 
 This paper uses the event study methodology to examine whether ‘significant’ terror attacks that occurred in the Eurozone in the 21st century affect stock markets. We find that such events do have a negative effect both on the market of the country suffering the attack, and on the general Eurozone market index. Depending on the method and the market index used, this effect ranges between −0.3% and −0.62% and is concentrated entirely on the day of the attack. We moreover find that this effect is more pronounced and of significance during the first decade of the 21st century. Regression analysis revealed that the most important factor affecting the magnitude of the effect is economic damage resulting from the attack.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 845-862
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2050040
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2050040
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# input file: GDPE_A_2039525_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Huiqiang Xie
Author-X-Name-First: Huiqiang
Author-X-Name-Last: Xie
Author-Name: Adnan Khurshid
Author-X-Name-First: Adnan
Author-X-Name-Last: Khurshid
Author-Name: Abdur Rauf
Author-X-Name-First: Abdur
Author-X-Name-Last: Rauf
Author-Name: Khalid Khan
Author-X-Name-First: Khalid
Author-X-Name-Last: Khan
Author-Name: Adrian Cantemir Calin
Author-X-Name-First: Adrian Cantemir
Author-X-Name-Last: Calin
Title: Is Geopolitical Turmoil Driving Petroleum Prices and Financial Liquidity Relationship? Wavelet-Based Evidence from Middle-East
Abstract: 
 The Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict is an ongoing struggle for influence in the region that has created uncertainty, affected oil prices and regional economics. This paper uses wavelet analysis to examine the frequency and time-varying co-movement and casual nexus between petroleum prices (OP) and financial liquidness (MS) with and without geopolitical risk (GPR). The aim is to test the validity of the monetary equilibrium model from 1988 to 2019. The model is supported by the findings, as both short and medium-term association is found between OP and MS at high frequencies in the presence of GPR. We find a medium-term association between OP and MS in the absence of GPR. The paper’s overall conclusion suggests that GPR affects OP and OP, in turn, impact MS. Diversifying economic activities to minimize oil dependency, which is sensitive to external shocks, is suggested as a mitigation solution.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 810-826
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2039525
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2039525
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# input file: GDPE_A_2138122_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Daniel Arce
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Arce
Title: Cybersecurity For Defense Economists
Abstract: 
 Cybersecurity plays a role in national security. This study introduces cybersecurity concepts in ways familiar to defense economists and identifies parallel methods of analysis in the fields. The theoretical tools of both fields include microeconomics and game theory. These tools enable analyses of phenomena present in both milieus: public goods, externalities, commons, incentives, interdependent security, platform economics, and inefficiency of decentralized decision making. Additional topics include cyber war, cyberterrorism, deterrence and disinformation in cyberspace, price of anarchy, and economics of cryptography.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 705-725
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2138122
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2138122
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# input file: GDPE_A_2062981_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Ahmet Faruk Aysan
Author-X-Name-First: Ahmet Faruk
Author-X-Name-Last: Aysan
Author-Name: Ali Yavuz Polat
Author-X-Name-First: Ali Yavuz
Author-X-Name-Last: Polat
Author-Name: Hasan Tekin
Author-X-Name-First: Hasan
Author-X-Name-Last: Tekin
Author-Name: Ahmet Semih Tunalı
Author-X-Name-First: Ahmet Semih
Author-X-Name-Last: Tunalı
Title: The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk
Abstract: 
 In recent years, geopolitical risk (GPR) has been a crucial factor in investment decisions and stock markets. Therefore, we explore the research on the GPR by employing bibliometric and scientometric analytical techniques. We find 366 scientific contributions in December 2021 from the Scopus database by searching ‘Geopolitical risk’ in abstracts, keywords, and titles. Our findings show that GPR research has gained momentum in the last three years. Specifically, the journal Defence and Peace Economics has one of the highest numbers of research and citation on GPR. Authors in Asia also dominate the GPR literature. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by presenting the existing research that may give new insights for prospective studies in GPR.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 791-809
Issue: 6
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 08
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2062981
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2062981
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# input file: GDPE_A_2065423_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Curie Maharani
Author-X-Name-First: Curie
Author-X-Name-Last: Maharani
Author-Name: Ron Matthews
Author-X-Name-First: Ron
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews
Title: The Role of Offset in the Enduring Gestation of Indonesia’s Strategic Industries
Abstract: 
 The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of Indonesia’s informal offset policy over the period 1976-2014. The paper offers four original academic perspectives: firstly, it is framed by reference to what Indonesia’s former Minister of Technology, Dr Habibie, described as the Progressive Manufacturing Plan, a novel approach in which offset was intended to play a critical supportive role in the systematic development of strategic civil-military industries; secondly, the analysis is structured into three distinctive ‘development-survival-revival’ industrialisation stages that impacted on the performance of both offset and the broader defence economy; thirdly, the study is uniquely different in the sense that the offset case studies all occurred in an era absent of a formal offset policy regime; and lastly, the study provides a wealth of rich data in a subject field well-known for its sensitivity, if not secrecy, and thus is characterised by a paucity of empirical evaluation.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 981-1002
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2065423
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2065423
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# input file: GDPE_A_2087324_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Francisco José Callado Muñoz
Author-X-Name-First: Francisco José
Author-X-Name-Last: Callado Muñoz
Author-Name: Jana Hromcová
Author-X-Name-First: Jana
Author-X-Name-Last: Hromcová
Author-Name: Ricardo Laborda Herrero
Author-X-Name-First: Ricardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Laborda Herrero
Author-Name: Natalia Utrero González
Author-X-Name-First: Natalia
Author-X-Name-Last: Utrero González
Title: An Empirical Analysis of Arms Exports and Economic Growth Spillovers: The Case of the United States
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we study closely the relationship between arms exports, labor productivity and economic growth. Using a connectedness-measurement technology fundamentally grounded in modern network theory, we determine the size and direction of the spillover effects between these three variables. Our findings indicate that shocks from arms exports have direct spillovers over the labor productivity and GDP growth, whereas the reverse is not captured by our data. We also provide a dynamic analysis of the spillovers that confirm the direction of spillovers from arms exports to the other variables. The recent evolution of arms exports from the United States together with the changes in arms exports policy show the timeliness of studying the effects of this particular trade to the rest of the economy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 893-913
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2087324
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2087324
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# input file: GDPE_A_2091610_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Yeongkyun Jang
Author-X-Name-First: Yeongkyun
Author-X-Name-Last: Jang
Author-Name: Jae-Suk Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Jae-Suk
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Title: The Dynamics of the Global Arms Trade Network: States’ Stability and Instability
Abstract: 
 This study identifies security-related factors affecting the formation of the global arms trade network. This empirical analysis using a quantitative approach includes data from multiple sources (the Global Peace Index, Political Stability Index, Democracy Index, Global Terrorism Index, Fragile State Index, and military expenditure as a percentage of GDP) and multiple states analyzed using the ERGM. Arms trade data related to six attributes of states representing their (in)stability is collected and analyzed for 2012-2018. Our findings are as follows: (1) states with greater internal stability import more arms, which affects the formation of the global arms trade network; (2) states with greater external instability import more arms, which also affects the formation of the global arms trade network. This study makes two academic contributions, as follows. First, we analyze factors that form the global arms trade network from a holistic or systemic perspective. Second, we analyze those factors empirically and statistically from a security perspective.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 914-930
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2091610
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2091610
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# input file: GDPE_A_2073428_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Charles Boehmer
Author-X-Name-First: Charles
Author-X-Name-Last: Boehmer
Author-Name: David Sacko
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Sacko
Title: Economic Growth’s Catalyzing Effect on War
Abstract: 
 This paper explains the circumstances where economic growth increases the likelihood of interstate war. Optimism created by high and sustained economic expansion permeates a state, increasing elite and mass optimism for the use of deadly force. Without relief, such unbridled sanguinity can lead states to war. However, other forces reduce the probability of war. Regional democracy, bilateral trade, and trade openness slow down the process where states go to war. This paper hypothesizes that key factors raise the temperature of disputes, increasing the likelihood of a political dispute combusting to war, while other attributes inhibit the process to war. Economic growth catalyzes such reactions, while regional and joint democracy impede the probability that a war sparks. This paper produces monadic and dyadic results demonstrating that economic growth increases the likelihood of war, while other factors such as interstate trade openness, bilateral trade, dyadic democracy, and regional democracy slow down the process of war, making war less likely.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 931-962
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2073428
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2073428
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# input file: GDPE_A_2074629_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Wei Qian
Author-X-Name-First: Wei
Author-X-Name-Last: Qian
Title: The Economic Consequences of National Security Threats: The Case of the Korean Peninsula
Abstract: 
 This paper examines the impact of national security threats on a nation’s economic growth and fiscal policy based on a case study of the Korean peninsula. I construct four measures of provocations using a newly-assembled list of North Korean provocative events going back to 1960. The results show that the overall impact of North Korean provocations on South Korea’s short-run economic growth is negligible. Since inter-Korean relations have gone through four phases, this paper also estimates the impact of provocations over each subperiod. Provocations had a significant impact on South Korea’s economic growth during 1960-1970 and 1992-1997 when inter-Korean tensions were high, but the effects took on different signs. While provocations decreased South Korea’s economic growth during 1992-1997, it had a positive impact on South Korea’s macroeconomy before 1970. This paper provides evidence that the effect of national security threats may vary with the responses from the government and political factors such as the relation between the targeted country and the country that inflicts the threat.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 963-980
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2074629
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2074629
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# input file: GDPE_A_2158288_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Tiziana Corda
Author-X-Name-First: Tiziana
Author-X-Name-Last: Corda
Title: Constraining Compliance? Reconsidering the Effect of Veto Players on Sanctions Success
Abstract: 
 
What effect do domestic political and institutional constraints such as veto players have on the success of international sanctions which their countries have been subjected to? Do they facilitate or constrain compliance with them? Although in the literature on sanctions success the role of domestic factors has received extensive attention, a typically public-policy concept such as veto players has remained largely underexplored. The potential of its application to the literature on sanctions was only recently uncovered by sanction scholars who found empirical support for the hypothesis that the larger the size of veto players in a country under sanctions, the higher the probability of compliance. Contrary to their findings, this article theorises a negative causal mechanism whereby a growing divergence in the relevant policy-area preferences of veto players prevents the targeted country from complying with sanctions-related demands. An empirical reassessment of this relationship with George Tsebelis’ original policy-area-specific veto player data confirms this negative effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 880-892
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2158288
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2158288
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# input file: GDPE_A_2073429_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Emre Hatipoglu
Author-X-Name-First: Emre
Author-X-Name-Last: Hatipoglu
Author-Name: Jennifer Considine
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer
Author-X-Name-Last: Considine
Author-Name: Abdullah AlDayel
Author-X-Name-First: Abdullah
Author-X-Name-Last: AlDayel
Title: Unintended Transnational Effects of Sanctions: A Global Vector Autoregression Simulation
Abstract: 
 The debate on unintended consequences of sanctions, such as their adverse effects on human rights, public health, or the economy beyond intended sectors in the target state, has become increasingly popular over the last couple of decades. Interestingly, however, this debate has mostly overlooked the transnational aspects of these unintended consequences. This study examines one such aspect, namely the economic spillover of sanctions to neighboring countries. Our global vector autoregression oil and inventory model (GOVAR) simulations on Indonesia, a medium-level oil producer, indicate sanctions may spill over to its neighbors’ domestic economy. The risk and nature of spillover varies with respect to the type of sanctions employed, timing of sanctions, and the macroeconomic indicator in the neighboring state in question. Equity markets appear especially susceptible to a contagion effect. Understanding how a sanction spills over to neighboring states can help sender states design sanctions that minimize regional disruptions.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 863-879
Issue: 7
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2073429
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2073429
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# input file: GDPE_A_2068298_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Sameh Hallaq
Author-X-Name-First: Sameh
Author-X-Name-Last: Hallaq
Author-Name: Belal Fallah
Author-X-Name-First: Belal
Author-X-Name-Last: Fallah
Title: Effect of Witnessing House Raids and Arrests on Child Behavior: Evidence from Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Abstract: 
 This study utilizes self-reported data on exposure to conflict, collected in the West Bank, to examine the exposure effect of house raids or arrest of household members on child behavior. We show that exposed children are more likely to engage in violent behavior. We also show that the exposure effect is independent of gender and that its magnitude is greater for older children. We propose that altering personality traits, mainly exacerbating neuroticism is a channel through which exposure to conflict affects children’s behavior.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1018-1038
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2068298
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2068298
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# input file: GDPE_A_2091191_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Paula Gómez-Trueba Santamaría
Author-X-Name-First: Paula
Author-X-Name-Last: Gómez-Trueba Santamaría
Author-Name: Alfredo Arahuetes García
Author-X-Name-First: Alfredo
Author-X-Name-Last: Arahuetes García
Author-Name: Aurora García Domonte
Author-X-Name-First: Aurora
Author-X-Name-Last: García Domonte
Title: Scientometric Analysis of the Relationship between Expenditure on Defence and Economic Growth: Current Situation and Future Perspectives
Abstract: 
 This article aims to identify the main studies that research the relationship between defence spending and economic growth in a region, carried out on a large sample of 162 articles obtained from the Web of Science database, published between 1995 and 2019. By carrying out three analyses, descriptive, scientometric and content, the results have made it possible to identify the most outstanding characteristics of this relationship along with the main schools of thought. Furthermore, these can be grouped into one of the four proposed categories: positive relationship, negative, bidirectional or no relation at all. The state of the art has been evaluated and synthesized, establishing trends and areas for future research in this broad field.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1071-1090
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2091191
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2091191
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# input file: GDPE_A_2076339_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Jon Schmid
Author-X-Name-First: Jon
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmid
Title: Technological Emergence and Military Technology Innovation
Abstract: 
 To what extent is military technology innovation emergent? This study answers this question by applying an emergence detection algorithm to roughly 300,000 technical terms extracted from military technology patents granted from 1980 to 2019. Emergence – instances of sudden and rapid growth of a technical term within the military patent corpus – is found to vary greatly over time. Military technology innovation during the period of 1996-2008 is found to be highly emergent. This period was found to be characterized by high organization-type diversity; non-traditional vendors, traditional defense contractors, large civilian-facing firms, and individuals generated military patents containing many novel emergent technical terms. However, in recent years, military technology innovation has exhibited markedly less emergence. The period of low emergence is characterized by reduced contributions by non-traditional vendors, defense prime contractors, and individual inventors to military patents containing emergent terms. These observations suggest that policies attempting to ensure a healthy defense innovation ecosystem should seek organization-type diversity and may benefit from employing promotion strategies targeted at distinct organization types.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1091-1109
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2076339
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2076339
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# input file: GDPE_A_2100588_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Kogila Balakrishnan
Author-X-Name-First: Kogila
Author-X-Name-Last: Balakrishnan
Author-Name: Treesna Nadira Johar
Author-X-Name-First: Treesna Nadira
Author-X-Name-Last: Johar
Title: The Role of Stakeholders in Managing Government Research and Development Funding for Defence Industrial Innovation: The Case of Malaysia
Abstract: 
 The level of defence industrial innovation success has been modest in Malaysia, despite continuous investment into research and development (R&D). The authors use the Defence Research and Development Stakeholder Engagement Framework (DRDSEF) to argue that strategic collaborative engagement between stakeholders is critical for successful industrial and technological innovation. This paper has two aims: to describe the role of the stakeholders in managing defence R&D funding and to evaluate the challenges faced by these stakeholders in managing government defence R&D allocation for industrial and technological innovation. This is an exploratory case study using a combination of interpretivist and pragmatist philosophical approaches. Analysed data consists of secondary resources and primary resources included surveys in the form of open-ended semi-structured interviews and participatory observation. This paper concludes that successful defence R&D stakeholder engagement requires an open and independent platform, enhanced industry-academia cross-sector fertilisation and collaborative data analytics management tools to share information.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1110-1129
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2100588
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2100588
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# input file: GDPE_A_2100572_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Adnan Efendic
Author-X-Name-First: Adnan
Author-X-Name-Last: Efendic
Author-Name: Dejan Kovac
Author-X-Name-First: Dejan
Author-X-Name-Last: Kovac
Author-Name: Jacob N. Shapiro
Author-X-Name-First: Jacob N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Shapiro
Title: Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract: 
 We investigate the long-term relationship between conflict-related migration and individual socioeconomic inequality. Looking at the post-conflict environment of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a former Yugoslav state most heavily impacted by the wars of the early 1990s, the paper focuses on differences in educational performance and income between four groups: migrants, internally displaced persons, former external migrants, and those who did not move. The analysis leverages a municipality-representative survey (n ≈ 6,000) that captured self-reported education and income outcomes as well as migration histories. We find that individuals with greater exposure to conflict had systematically worse educational performance and lower earnings two decades after the war. Former external migrants now living in BiH have better educational and economic outcomes than those who did not migrate, but these advantages are smaller for external migrants who were forced to move. We recommend that policies intended to address migration-related discrepancies should be targeted on the basis of individual and family experiences caused by conflict.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1003-1017
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2100572
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2100572
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# input file: GDPE_A_2079282_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Andreas G. Koutoupis
Author-X-Name-First: Andreas G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Koutoupis
Author-Name: Leonidas G. Davidopoulos
Author-X-Name-First: Leonidas G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Davidopoulos
Title: Dividend Policy and Earnings Management: Evidence from the U.S. Aerospace and Defence Industry
Abstract: 
 This study provides evidence on how dividend policy affects earnings management. Our goal is to contribute to the literature by employing data from a sector (aerospace and defence) that to the best of our knowledge has never been studied before in terms of the relationship between earnings management and dividend policy. Our sample consists of 17 listed companies in the U.S. Stock Exchanges, examined for the 2012-2019 period. We employ panel data linear regression to conclude that the dividend policy positively affects the management’s practice of discretionary accruals manipulation. Consequently, our results support the signalling hypothesis that points to the importance of a stable dividend policy. Specifically, we provide relevant and robust information on management decision making regarding value return to the shareholders of U.S. aerospace and defence companies. Finally, we provide future research proposals that may shed more light on this obscure relationship.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1130-1142
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2079282
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2079282
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# input file: GDPE_A_2126955_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Xinyi Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Xinyi
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name: Na Hou
Author-X-Name-First: Na
Author-X-Name-Last: Hou
Author-Name: Bo Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Bo
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Title: Democracy, military expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous perspective
Abstract: 
 Countries with different democratic levels tend to show various degrees of emphasis on military expenditure and a consensus can hardly be reached on the economic effect of democracy and military expenditure. By applying a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach, this article examines the potential dynamic and endogenous relationships among democracy, military expenditure and economic growth of 126 countries from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the k-means clustering algorithm is employed to account for the heterogeneous interaction between democracy and military expenditure in different countries. The empirical results reveal that the strong positive impact of democracy and the negative effect of military spending on economic growth exists in the full sample and the cluster of countries with low democratic levels and a high military burden. For democratic countries with low military expenditure, there is a more significant and negative impact both of military expenditure on democracy and vice versa.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1039-1070
Issue: 8
Volume: 34
Year: 2023
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2126955
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2126955
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# input file: GDPE_A_2120234_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Olivier Guillot
Author-X-Name-First: Olivier
Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot
Author-Name: Antoine Parent
Author-X-Name-First: Antoine
Author-X-Name-Last: Parent
Title: ‘On Vient de Fusiller un des Nôtres’: A Quantitative Study of Military Executions in the French Army during WW1
Abstract: 
 This paper explores the issue of French executions during the Great War in a quantitative perspective. Based on the ‘Shot in the First World War’ database of the Ministry of Defense, we first provide a statistical portrait of the French soldiers who were sentenced to death by courts-martial or summarily executed. Then, we analyze the temporal distribution of executions using a regression approach. More specifically, we investigate whether the variations in the number of executions over time were related to the intensity of engagements. Finally, focusing on the soldiers’ place of birth, we examine the differences across counties (départements) in the execution rate. Our results suggest that the vast majority of the executed soldiers were ‘poilus’ like the others who found themselves before a firing squad for having committed a fault in a moment of weakness, often after being involved in particularly bloody fighting, and sometimes under the influence of alcohol. Their acts were probably, in most cases, much more driven by survival instinct than by pacifist motives or other political considerations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 128-144
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2120234
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2120234
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# input file: GDPE_A_2101199_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Samuel Redman
Author-X-Name-First: Samuel
Author-X-Name-Last: Redman
Author-Name: Kyle Greenberg
Author-X-Name-First: Kyle
Author-X-Name-Last: Greenberg
Title: The Effect of Service-Length Obligations on Occupational Selection: Evidence from West Point Graduates
Abstract: 
 This paper estimates the effect of the U.S. Army’s June 2020 decision to increase the service obligation for Army aviators from six to ten years on West Point cadets’ preferences for aviation. We use a difference-in-differences identification strategy, exploiting how the policy took effect after the Class of 2021 submitted four sets of interim preferences but before cadets submitted two final sets of preferences, using preferences from cadets in the Classes of 2015 to 2020 to form counterfactual outcomes. The increased service obligation made aviation less popular, reducing the percentage of cadets who ranked aviation as their first choice by 4.1 percentage points (baseline of 18.5%) and increasing the percentage of cadets who ranked aviation as among their three lowest choices by 6.9 percentage points (baseline of 8.9%). The reduction in aviation’s popularity is most pronounced among cadets with above-median grade-point-averages, above-median aviation talent scores, and above-median SAT scores.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 109-127
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2101199
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# input file: GDPE_A_2114058_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Marie Olson Lounsbery
Author-X-Name-First: Marie
Author-X-Name-Last: Olson Lounsbery
Author-Name: Nicole Gerring
Author-X-Name-First: Nicole
Author-X-Name-Last: Gerring
Author-Name: Kaitlyn Rose
Author-X-Name-First: Kaitlyn
Author-X-Name-Last: Rose
Title: Civil War Peace Agreements and Gender Inclusion
Abstract: 
 In 2000, The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 actively promoted the inclusion of women and their perspectives in peace processes, as well as promoted a gender perspective in post-conflict recovery and institution building. The number of gender provisions in civil war peace agreements has increased since 2001 as a result, but not all such provisions serve the same purpose. In this study, we present a provision typology that divides gender provisions into those that seek to empower women and compare them to those that address conflict victimization. We suggest that the context under which the peace agreement takes place, and conditions of the conflict itself, should influence where empowerment and victimization provisions are employed if they are to have the type of impact sought by the UNSC and improve post-conflict outcomes. We test our propositions on all civil war peace agreements occurring between 1990-2018. Findings indicate that gender provisions designed to empower women are unlikely to emerge in societies where they are perhaps most needed. Comparatively, it appears there is less resistance to gender provisions aimed at addressing conflict-related victimization.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 86-108
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2114058
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2114058
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:35:y:2024:i:1:p:86-108



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# input file: GDPE_A_2141946_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Satoshi Shimizutani
Author-X-Name-First: Satoshi
Author-X-Name-Last: Shimizutani
Author-Name: Eiji Yamada
Author-X-Name-First: Eiji
Author-X-Name-Last: Yamada
Title: Long-term Consequences of Civil War in Tajikistan: The Gendered Impact on Education and Labor Market Outcomes
Abstract: 
 Tajikistan experienced a violent internal conflict between 1992 and 1997. This study examines the long-term consequences of civil war in Tajikistan on education and labor market outcomes twenty years after the end of the civil war. We compare individuals who should have completed their mandatory schooling before the war and individuals who were of school age during the war with a wide variety of geographical exposures to the war. We confirm a negative and significant effect on completing basic education for females exposed to the war during their school ages. Moreover, we see significant adverse effects on work status for receiving cash wages for females exposed to armed conflicts in their basic education ages.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 72-85
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2141946
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2141946
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# input file: GDPE_A_2108571_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan
Author-Name: Reza Zamani
Author-X-Name-First: Reza
Author-X-Name-Last: Zamani
Title: The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage
Abstract: 
 We study the effect of a corruption reflection index on internal conflict in Iran using a novel measure of corruption based on newspaper coverage. We use the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and its applied tools of impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to track the response of protests to shocks in corruption levels. Using annual data from 1962 to 2019, we find a positive and significant response of protests to a positive shock in the news-based corruption reflection index. We also show that economic growth and military spending are the main channels where higher corruption may lead to higher internal protests.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 24-43
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2108571
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2108571
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# input file: GDPE_A_2129350_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Mahdi Fawaz
Author-X-Name-First: Mahdi
Author-X-Name-Last: Fawaz
Author-Name: Erwan Le Quellec
Author-X-Name-First: Erwan
Author-X-Name-Last: Le Quellec
Title: Indirect Rivalries and Civil Wars: Empirical Evidence
Abstract: 
 In this paper, we develop a new dataset on indirect state rivalry relations based on different matrix calculations for 154 countries, over the period 1970-2015, and demonstrate their importance in explaining civil wars. After controlling for spatial distances between rival countries, we demonstrate that 1) the presence of direct and indirect rivals exerts a positive and significant effect on the risk of civil war; 2) decreasing levels of military capacity of one state relative to its rivals (direct and indirect) also influence the probability of internal conflict. Finally, we confirm the significance of our indicators by using on the one hand the random forest algorithm, a machine learning method using decision trees and on the other hand, the Kaplan-Meier estimate for the duration of the civil wars.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 44-71
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2129350
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# input file: GDPE_A_2151083_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Kai A. Konrad
Author-X-Name-First: Kai A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Konrad
Author-Name: Florian Morath
Author-X-Name-First: Florian
Author-X-Name-Last: Morath
Title: Collective Action and Intra-group Conflict with Fixed Budgets
Abstract: 
 We study collective action under adverse incentives: each member of the group has a given budget (‘use-it-or-lose-it’) that is private information and can be used for contributions to make the group win a prize and for internal fights over this very prize. Even in the face of such rivalry in resource use, the group often succeeds in overcoming the collective action problem in the non-cooperative equilibrium. In one type of equilibrium, all group members jointly contribute; in the other type of equilibrium, volunteers make full standalone contributions. Both types of equilibrium exist for larger and partially overlapping parameter ranges.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 1-23
Issue: 1
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2151083
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2151083
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# input file: GDPE_A_2152956_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Karl Sörenson
Author-X-Name-First: Karl
Author-X-Name-Last: Sörenson
Title: Prospects of Deterrence: Deterrence Theory, Representation and Evidence
Abstract: 
 Game theoretic analysis of deterrence has been criticized for not capturing how actors realistically behave. It is alleged that prospect theoretical re-modeling provides a better foundation for a deterrence theory. The article analyzes how the strategies change when a prospect theoretical function is applied to a central deterrence game. While the probability distributions changes, it cannot alter the general dynamics. When considered together with previous research, it shows that prospect theory neither can or should replace standard assumptions when constructing a deterrence theory. However, viewed as a compliment, prospect theory expands the modeling possibilities and opens up for important new aspects.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 145-159
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2152956
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2152956
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# input file: GDPE_A_2145645_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Leo J. Blanken
Author-X-Name-First: Leo
Author-X-Name-Last: J. Blanken
Author-Name: Jason J. Lepore
Author-X-Name-First: Jason
Author-X-Name-Last: J. Lepore
Title: Trade Policy for Dual-Use Technology
Abstract: 
 We consider trade policy for a private market good that is also valuable for the production of military force. In a two-country model with both contested and uncontested resources, we show necessary and sufficient conditions for the importing country to restrict trade with quota and subsidy combination in equilibrium. Equilibrium can involve subsidization by the exporting country with equilibrium total of the importing country increasing in this subsidy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 192-205
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2145645
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2145645
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:35:y:2024:i:2:p:192-205



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# input file: GDPE_A_2145717_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Kyriakos Emmanouilidis
Author-X-Name-First: Kyriakos
Author-X-Name-Last: Emmanouilidis
Title: Military Spending and Economic Output: A Decomposition Analysis of the US Military Budget
Abstract: 
 Although the economic effects of defense expenditures have become an issue of intense interest over the recent decades, little is known about how the individual components of military spending affect the economy. Nevertheless, military spending is highly heterogeneous in its nature consisting of assorted categories that broadly encompass salaries’ payment, operations, training, research and development, and maintenance of equipment, arms and facilities. Naturally, this implies that military spending can affect the economy in various and probably contradictory ways. Hence, by considering this distinctive element of military spending, the present paper aims to uncover the economic effects of the most important components of the US defense budget focusing on a period from 1949 to 2021. Applying linear and non–linear methods on a Barro–style regression, the statistical evidence reported herein suggests that heavy reliance on the military sector entails potentially high opportunity costs.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 243-263
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2145717
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2145717
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:35:y:2024:i:2:p:243-263



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# input file: GDPE_A_2126213_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Frank Daumann
Author-X-Name-First: Frank
Author-X-Name-Last: Daumann
Title: Potential Negative Externalities of Private Military Entrepreneurs from an Economic Perspective
Abstract: 
 Private military companies (PMC) can have considerable advantages for the customer on the one hand, but on the other hand can come with great dangers. Based on the theory of externalities, an attempt is made to illuminate this situation and to analyze the negative externalities associated with it. By using an instrumental case study method we can identify two potential negative technological externalities of hiring PMCs which should be internalized. These two are the violation of national law and international humanitarian law in the theater of operation, and the lack of control of the executive by the legislative branch in the exporting state. Based on this, we present and discuss options to eliminate these negative technological externalities. It can be shown that the preferable set of measures includes instruments to create transparency, and command-and-control regulations on the individual state’s level. While the second effect can easily be solved with domestic instruments, a supranational organization is needed to solve the first effect.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 206-226
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2126213
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2126213
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# input file: GDPE_A_2155903_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Daniel Aum
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Aum
Author-Name: Fei-Ling Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Fei-Ling
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Title: Insecurity and Ambition: Dual Drivers of Chinese Innovation?
Abstract: 
 This article seeks to explain why some nations make greater efforts than others do to innovate. We examine for our case study the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China), which has emerged over the past several decades as a global technology leader and remains committed to bolstering its science and technology (S&T) capabilities. Applying a modified theory of ‘creative insecurity,’ we examine whether the balance between external and internal threats explains the variation in China’s innovation efforts. The hypothesis: when faced with greater threats from abroad than at home, China will have increased its innovation endeavors, measured by its innovation-related policies and research and development (R&D) intensity. Our mixed methods approach finds some support for this hypothesis. Our initial theory, however, seems unable to account for the observation that China also increased its R&D intensity even when external threats decreased and its internal security remained stable. Thus, we introduce a complementary theory of ‘creative ambition,’ which proposes that China’s efforts to innovate may not be merely defensive in nature but also offensive in intent to expand the PRC’s power and influence abroad. We conclude with potential theoretical and policy implications of this study.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 174-191
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2155903
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2155903
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# input file: GDPE_A_2145709_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Princewill Okwoche
Author-X-Name-First: Princewill
Author-X-Name-Last: Okwoche
Author-Name: Eftychia Nikolaidou
Author-X-Name-First: Eftychia
Author-X-Name-Last: Nikolaidou
Title: Determinants of External, Domestic, and Total Public Debt in Nigeria: The Role of Conflict, Arms Imports, and Military Expenditure
Abstract: 
 Nigeria’s external and domestic debt have been rising very rapidly in recent years despite the crushing weight of debt burden that almost crippled its economy in previous decades. This study examines the likely determinants of public debt in Nigeria over the period 1970–2020 with a focus on the effects of armed conflict, arms imports, and military spending. Unlike most previous studies that focus only on external debt, this study employs the three separate measures of public debt, namely, government gross debt, external debt, and domestic debt. In addition to being more applicable to the case of Nigeria, this also allows us to investigate whether the drivers of public debt vary with the measure of debt used. Employing the ARDL approach to cointegration and a number of robustness checks, findings suggest that whereas conflict, arms imports, and military spending have statistically positive effects on external debt, they do not have a significant effect on domestic debt. Conflict and arms import have positive effects on gross government debt which is unsurprising given that gross debt includes foreign currency denominated debt. Policy recommendations based upon these findings are discussed.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 227-242
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2145709
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2145709
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# input file: GDPE_A_2145537_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Garrett R. Wood
Author-X-Name-First: Garrett R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Wood
Title: The Political Economy of Wargaming
Abstract: 
 Modeling conflict through wargaming is the only option outside of high-cost real conflict for militaries to train their forces and attempt to reveal information about their own strengths and weaknesses as well as those of their foes. This is the function wargaming serves in theory, but in reality, the process of wargaming is undermined by information and incentive problems that cause the real-world performance of wargames to deviate sharply from their performance in theory. These problems resolve the conflicting professional views on wargaming between those who want to use them for predictive purposes and those who want to use them for training purposes in favor of the latter.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 160-173
Issue: 2
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 02
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2145537
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2145537
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# input file: GDPE_A_2158648_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Wakako Maekawa
Author-X-Name-First: Wakako
Author-X-Name-Last: Maekawa
Title: Verification of Peace Accords and Military Expenditures in Post-Conflict Societies
Abstract: 
 Why is it that some governments ending a civil war in a negotiated settlement succeed in reducing military spending while others fail? Civil wars ending in peace agreements result in relatively low military expenditures; however, not all governments succeed in the reduction. I argue that implementing a third-party verification mechanism of peace accords helps reduce military spending in post-conflict societies because the verification mechanism facilitates the peace accord implementation by enabling reciprocal implementation and by increasing the cost of noncompliance through active information flow. Implementation of peace agreements reduces threats posed by both former and outside rebel groups. This makes the government decrease the military expenditure allocated to appease internal security threats. I tested this argument using 32 civil wars with a comprehensive peace agreement between 1992 and 2011. The results indicate that initiating a verification mechanism leads to lower military spending.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 295-319
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2158648
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2158648
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# input file: GDPE_A_2150808_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Naji Jalkh
Author-X-Name-First: Naji
Author-X-Name-Last: Jalkh
Author-Name: Elie Bouri
Author-X-Name-First: Elie
Author-X-Name-Last: Bouri
Title: Global Geopolitical Risk and the Long- and Short-Run Impacts on the Returns and Volatilities of US Treasuries
Abstract: 
 We examine the impact of global geopolitical risk (GPR) measures on US Treasuries’ returns and volatilities, differentiating between long- and short-run investment behaviours among an array of time-to-maturities ranging from 1 month to 30 years, taking into account various economic and financial factors. Using monthly data and a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the results indicate a negative long-run relationship between US Treasuries’ returns and the global GPR index. These results generally hold when we consider geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts, although they exhibit some discrepancies between these two components and across the yield curve. Further results show a positive and strong long-run relationship between the US Treasuries’ realized volatilities and the various geopolitical risk measures. The evidence holds true when we disentangle ‘bad’ from ‘good’ realized volatilities, although the impact of bad volatility is stronger than that of good volatility, which points to an asymmetric effect of realized volatility in US Treasuries. A sub-sample analysis suggests the robustness of the main results. Our analyses provide the first empirical evidence of the information content of GPR for US Treasury securities’ returns and volatilities, which matters to fixed-income investors and decision-makers at the Federal Reserve.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 339-366
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2150808
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2150808
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# input file: GDPE_A_2154926_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Zeng Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Zeng
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Author-Name: Changyuan Xia
Author-X-Name-First: Changyuan
Author-X-Name-Last: Xia
Author-Name: Shuai Zhao
Author-X-Name-First: Shuai
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao
Author-Name: Daiguo Fu
Author-X-Name-First: Daiguo
Author-X-Name-Last: Fu
Title: Chinese Defense Industry Reforms and Military Firm Performance: Evidence from the Civil—Military Integration Strategy
Abstract: 
 In March 2015, the Chinese government initiated an important reform program targeting the defense industry, namely civil–military integration (CMI), with the objectives of introducing military technologies to the civilian market and infusing private capital into military enterprises. On examining this unique exogenous shock in a 2007-2017 sample of Chinese A-share listed firms, we identify the following effects of CMI on military firms’ performance. (1) The market value of military firms significantly increases after the establishment of the CMI policy in 2015 and the market value of military firms is on average 6.682% higher after 2015. (2) This effect is robust to propensity score matching, instrumental regression, alternative measures of corporate market value. (3) The positive impact of CMI on military listed firms’ market value is stronger for firms with lower innovation ability and weaker corporate governance, suggesting that the CMI policy can improve the research and development abilities and ease the agency conflicts of military firms. (4) After 2015, military firms with weaker financial constraints and those located in provinces with lower marketization levels perform better. Overall, offering a micro-perspective on military firms, this paper complements the growing literature on defense economics and clarifies how CMI improves military firms’ performance.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 367-382
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2154926
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2154926
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# input file: GDPE_A_2230408_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Wukki Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Wukki
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Todd Sandler
Author-X-Name-First: Todd
Author-X-Name-Last: Sandler
Title: NATO Security Burden Sharing, 1991–2020
Abstract: 
 In contrast to much of the extant literature, the paper devises a composite security burden measure for the NATO alliance that accounts for three different contributions by allies to their collective security: namely, military expenditure (ME), foreign assistance, and UN peacekeeping spending. Generally, NATO defense burden sharing and free riding are judged solely based on ME even though foreign assistance and peacekeeping promote world prosperity, stabilize regimes, and quell conflicts that affect NATO’s collective security. Our parametric tests for free riding apply a spatial-lag panel model, which addresses the interdependency issues, to a broader security-spending measure that accounts for allies’ membership, contiguity, and inverse distance. In all spatial models, we uncover robust evidence of free riding where allies decrease their aggregate security spending in response to increases in the collective security spending of other allies. We apply a panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to adjust for endogeneity concerns.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 265-280
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2230408
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2230408
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# input file: GDPE_A_2160140_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Bing Lu
Author-X-Name-First: Bing
Author-X-Name-Last: Lu
Author-Name: Wenge Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Wenge
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Title: Does Comprehensive Geopolitical Risk Deter FDI Outflows: Evidence from China
Abstract: 
 What is geopolitical risk to multinational enterprises in a world flooded with geopolitical changes? Does such risk impact foreign direct investment flows? To answer these questions, we attempt to develop the concept of comprehensive geopolitical risk by expanding the border of geopolitical risk in the literature to include both implicit and explicit risks that overseas investors face in host countries. We further construct an index by mining big data from a news report database, which we use to examine how comprehensive geopolitical risk impacts FDI outflows from China to 154 host countries between 2003 and 2020. Our findings indicate that comprehensive geopolitical risk does negatively impact FDI outflows, especially in the energy sector. Implicit geopolitical risk also significantly deters FDI outflows.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 383-399
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2022.2160140
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2022.2160140
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# input file: GDPE_A_2235502_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Futoshi Takabatake
Author-X-Name-First: Futoshi
Author-X-Name-Last: Takabatake
Title: NATO’s Approach to Multi-Domain Operations: From the Perspective of the Economics of Alliances
Abstract: 
 This study presents a model that incorporates the characteristics of multi-domain operations (MDO) and analyzes the impact of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) approach to MDO on the behavior of its member countries from the perspective of the economics of alliances. NATO is wary of authoritarian states and prepared for the great power competition with them, as shown in its current strategic concept. To prepare for a possible future war against peer competitors, NATO is strengthening its capabilities to conduct MDO, in which cross-domain synergy is a key factor. The model presented in this study relates the cross-domain synergy in MDO and the complementarity between the defense activities in multiple domains using organizational and public economics methods. The implication of this model is that if the defense activities in different domains are complementary, one member country’s increasing defense activities in one domain can increase another’s defense activity in another domain that is complementary to that domain. It is particularly crucial for NATO’s future military buildup: NATO’s approach to MDO will make defense burden-sharing fairer because one member’s military buildup will motivate other members to build up theirs.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 281-294
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2235502
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2235502
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# input file: GDPE_A_2164913_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Vidya Diwakar
Author-X-Name-First: Vidya
Author-X-Name-Last: Diwakar
Title: Conflict Trajectories and Education: Gender-Disaggregated Evidence from India
Abstract: 
 This paper investigates the relationship between conflict trajectories and years of schooling in India for girls and boys. It adopts propensity score matching methods on panel data from the India Human Development Survey (2004/05-2011/12) merged with conflict data from the South Asia Terrorism Portal. Conflict is measured according to the dynamic trajectory of Naxal violence-related fatalities at the district level, distinguishing areas of chronic conflict with those experiencing dynamism in conflict intensity over time. ATT estimates indicate that conflict is associated with a reduction in years of schooling for both genders, though relatively high for girls (by a quarter of a year for girls and by 0.16 of a year for boys), driven by large reductions in school accumulation for girls living in areas of chronic conflict. Results are consistent when adopting different methods, alternative measures of conflict fatalities, and accounting for other conflicts and selective migration. Examining transmission mechanisms suggest that household spending on girls’ education may be de-prioritised amidst conflict, while conflict may also weaken or destroy school infrastructure. Results suggest that policy responses should prioritise girls’ education in areas of chronic conflict, not only in ‘fragile states’ but in countries where conflict remains a subnational concern.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 320-338
Issue: 3
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2164913
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2164913
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# input file: GDPE_A_2185425_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Keith Hartley
Author-X-Name-First: Keith
Author-X-Name-Last: Hartley
Title: European Defence Policy: Prospects and Challenges
Abstract: 
 European defence policy offers opportunities for spending more and better where better achieves more from existing resources. Increased defence spending needs to be justified by the threats to Europe which have to be identified and defined. Higher defence expenditure usually focuses on inputs rather than final outputs in the form of greater peace, protection, security and the safety of a nation’s citizens. The task is to show the opportunities for applying economic analysis to the complexities of European defence policy and collaborative defence projects. Economic efficiency criteria identify the contribution of final outputs, substitution and competition to the formulation of European defence policy, but the final outcomes are likely to be determined by military-political factors rather than economic efficiency criteria. The paper provides a critique of European defence policy.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 504-515
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2185425
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2185425
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# input file: GDPE_A_2201739_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Sven Biscop
Author-X-Name-First: Sven
Author-X-Name-Last: Biscop
Title: European Defence: No Zeitenwende Yet
Abstract: 
 The EU and its Member States have taken unprecedented collective steps to support Ukraine militarily. That has not yet translated into a stronger momentum to further cooperation between their own defence forces, however. Ideally, Member States would integrate national capabilities into large multinational formations. NATO’s New Force Model could provide an extra stimulus to that end.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 516-520
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2201739
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2201739
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# input file: GDPE_A_2329865_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Jean Belin
Author-X-Name-First: Jean
Author-X-Name-Last: Belin
Author-Name: Mahdi Fawaz
Author-X-Name-First: Mahdi
Author-X-Name-Last: Fawaz
Title: Profitability of Defense Companies in the US and Europe
Abstract: 
 The profitability (ROA) of US and European defense companies are influenced by past profitability, debt policy, company size, and defense specialization. Taking into account the effect of these variables, individual company characteristics and time specificities, the profitability of US defense companies remains higher than that of European companies. Moreover, US defense firms are more profitable when specialized in defense, while European companies are more dependent on the civilian market and its evolution. The position of a company in the SIPRI ranking has a negative impact on American companies’ profitability, while it positively influences European companies’ profitability. These results could be due to excessive fragmentation (of orders and industries) on the European market and high concentration on the US market.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 415-426
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2024.2329865
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2024.2329865
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# input file: GDPE_A_2182869_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Renaud Bellais
Author-X-Name-First: Renaud
Author-X-Name-Last: Bellais
Title: Market Structures, Competition and Innovation: Grounds for an Alternative Defence Industrial Policy
Abstract: 
 Since the 1980s, most reforms in major arms-producing countries focus on keeping costs under control by either promoting competition between suppliers or by reducing information asymmetry through audits and controls. Indeed, cost escalation represents a challenge but, in fact, these reforms try to adjust the functioning of defence market rather than questioning the institutional features of this latter. The success of defence acquisition structures also explains their limits. The current organisation of defence market was perfectly adapted to the geostrategic context of Cold War and a technological momentum that favours symmetrical arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union. Even if these structures still help deliver advanced capabilities, they can be considered as not sufficient to cover all the operational needs of armed forces. The conception of capabilities needs to go beyond a long-term planning while industrial approaches open the way to more agile development and manufacturing. An alternative defence industrial policy is necessary to complement the existing one. More modular architectures for complex systems provide the opportunity to increase the reactiveness of capability deliveries and to foster both innovation and competition.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 448-463
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2182869
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2182869
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# input file: GDPE_A_2180588_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Mitja Kleczka
Author-X-Name-First: Mitja
Author-X-Name-Last: Kleczka
Author-Name: Laurens Vandercruysse
Author-X-Name-First: Laurens
Author-X-Name-Last: Vandercruysse
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind
Author-X-Name-Last: Du Bois
Title: The Spectrum of Strategic Autonomy in EU Defence Supply Chains
Abstract: 
 The Strategic Compass aims to strengthen the resilience of defence-industrial supply chains and complements the long-term strategic ambition of enhancing the EDTIB. Impetus for restructuring the EU’s supply chains may be provided by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the associated increase in defence budgets, and the promotion of joint projects and cross-border M&A. Since the prospect of achieving strategic autonomy also depends on how ‘local’ current supply chains are, we offer an in-depth investigation of three dimensions related to foreign dependency (company ownership, tender success, supply chain participation). Despite mean scores of non-EU ownership in the range of 25-30% for the EU’s largest defence firms, foreign ownership does not necessarily threaten the EU’s security of supply. Nevertheless, the participation of non-EU firms concerning M&A with high relevance for the EU defence industry increases, as does the share of defence-related EU tenders that are won by non-EU firms. An assessment of four multinational military aircraft programmes further exemplifies that the EU’s defence R&D and production capabilities may critically depend on outside suppliers. We thus find that the importance of non-EU actors for the EU’s defence industry is large and may not easily be mitigated, particularly if commodity imports are considered.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 427-447
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2180588
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2180588
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# input file: GDPE_A_2271816_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Josselin Droff
Author-X-Name-First: Josselin
Author-X-Name-Last: Droff
Author-Name: Jade Guiberteau
Author-X-Name-First: Jade
Author-X-Name-Last: Guiberteau
Author-Name: Camille Laville
Author-X-Name-First: Camille
Author-X-Name-Last: Laville
Author-Name: Julien Malizard
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Malizard
Author-Name: Laure Noël
Author-X-Name-First: Laure
Author-X-Name-Last: Noël
Title: The Political Economy of Military Aircraft, the Case of Europe
Abstract: 
 This article measures and discusses the continuities and changes in the procurement process in Europe by examining the influence of national preferences in terms of sovereignty, industrial issues, and strategic needs on procurement strategies. We focus on the aerospace defense industry and study four aircraft markets (fighter aircraft, transport aircraft, helicopters, and UAVs) in 30 European countries during the post-Cold War era. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in terms of strategies. They suggest that European countries lack coordination in their aircraft procurement strategies; if a country has sufficient industrial capacity, it will seek to maximize national industrial benefits in its procurement choices, to the detriment of its European partners; conversely, if a country has no industrial capacity, transatlantic suppliers would be preferable to European ones. Members of the former USSR and Warsaw Pact have phased out old Soviet-era aircraft at different rates, depending on the market, with European suppliers benefiting more from this process than American ones. Overall, our study provides a comprehensive and nuanced perspective on the defense aircraft industry in Europe that can inform policymakers and stakeholders in this sector.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 464-503
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2271816
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2271816
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# input file: GDPE_A_2349887_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Cind Du Bois
Author-X-Name-First: Cind Du
Author-X-Name-Last: Bois
Author-Name: Caroline Buts
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Buts
Title: Introduction to the Special Issue ‘Spend More and Better’
Abstract: 
 While the publication of the European Union’s Strategic Compass was planned before the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the war clearly impacted its interpretation and roll-out. The strategic document requires not only that the member states increase their defence spending but that they also increase the efficiency of their spending. This special issue addresses this call for more and better defence spending in the EU from different perspectives.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 401-403
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2024.2349887
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2024.2349887
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# input file: GDPE_A_2223017_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Panayiotis Tzeremes
Author-X-Name-First: Panayiotis
Author-X-Name-Last: Tzeremes
Title: European Defence Industries’ Sales Performance: A Benefit-Of-The-Doubt Based Comparative Analysis
Abstract: 
 The Russian invasion of Ukraine has generated a new impetus towards an enhanced European defence pillar, while many EU members have announced significant increases in their respective defence budgets over the coming years. Expectedly, a large percentage of the capital and technological inputs required to support the efforts towards a common European defence and the increased defence needs of many EU members will be procured from the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB). The European defence companies are among the major suppliers of conventional arms in the world. Their cumulative share of world arms exports is the second largest globally. This paper uses a Benefit-of-the-Doubt (BoD) model via Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to comparatively evaluate the sales performance of major European defence industries vis-à-vis other major international arms producers. The sample used in the analysis contains 72 firms and spans the period 2016–2020. The findings indicate that on the whole US defence manufacturers have a dominant presence among the biggest global producers and outrank many major European companies. These findings offer valuable policy recommendations.
Journal: Defence and Peace Economics
Pages: 404-414
Issue: 4
Volume: 35
Year: 2024
Month: 05
X-DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2023.2223017
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10242694.2023.2223017
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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:35:y:2024:i:4:p:404-414