Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525417 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525417 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abraham Akkerman Author-X-Name-First: Abraham Author-X-Name-Last: Akkerman Title: A problem in household composition Abstract: Distinction made between household-persons and household-markers is formalized in the notion of nested populations. This leads to an extension of the Leslie model into a formulation of growth for both population and households. The extended model involves the matrix presentation of household composition where ratios of household-persons who are age 0, per household-marker, function as surrogate values for fertility rates. The extended model describes change over time in the distribution of population by age, and in the distribution of households by age of household-marker, or household-head. The model involves the inversion of a nonnegative matrix, and is feasible only if it yields, projected over time, nonnegative entries in vectors representing distribution of population by age, and distribution of household-heads by age. Conditions for the feasibility of the extended model are discussed, and a sufficient condition for feasibility over a single interval is identified. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 3-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Leslie model, household composition, household growth, population growth, fertility, nonnegative matrices, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525418 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525418 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:3-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Young Kim Author-X-Name-First: Young Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Name: Robert Schoen Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen Title: Populations with quadratic exponential growth Abstract: Stable population models, based on fertility and mortality rates that do not change over time, are too unrealistic and inflexible to capture the dynamics of many observed populations. Dynamic models, which allow vital rates to change over time, are needed to systematically analyze such populations. Here we examine dynamic—hyperstable—models with increasing or decreasing vital rates, providing the first detailed analysis of a closed form model of monotonic demographic change. Using two different approaches, we demonstrate how exponentiated quadratic birth trajectories are related to exponentially increasing vital rates. Focusing on the plausible assumption of a fixed proportional distribution of births by age of mother, we show how convergence to hyperstability parallels convergence to classical stability. Our analysis focuses on net maternity rates, allowing considerable flexibility in patterns of change in either fertility or mortality. Under the assumption of constant mortality over time, we specify the hyperstable population's age structure and its relationship to its associated stable population at every point in time. The hyperstable and associated stable populations are in dynamic equilibrium, as the Kullback distance, which measures the degree the two age distributions differ, remains constant over time. The exponentiated quadratic provides a straightforward model of equilibrated change. Its flexibility and relatively simple structure give it significant potential as an analytical tool. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 19-33 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Stability, hyperstability, changing rates, dynamic models, demographic equilibrium, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525419 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525419 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:19-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Schoen Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen Author-Name: Young Kim Author-X-Name-First: Young Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: Stabilization, birth waves, and the surge in the elderly Abstract: Substantial regularities characterize the transition to stability that follows a shift from one set of vital rates to another. The new vital, rates interact with the population's initial age composition and generate birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the ratio of ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable net maternity. A greater change in growth and a later stable net maternity pattern produce larger fluctuations in the number of births. Stabilization begins at the youngest ages and proceeds upward. Sixty years after the shift, the birth waves have largely disappeared and the proportion under age 15 approximates the stable level implied by the new rates. Those patterns are manifest in the stabilization of both observed and Coale-Demeny model stable populations. When fertility falls, the new stable population has a larger fraction at all ages above (approximately) 30, with greater changes characterizing the extremes of life. Fifteen years after the fall, there is a trough in the number at ages 0-14. Sixty years after the fall, when the largest pre-decline cohort is age 60-74 and the smallest post-decline cohort is age 45-59, there is a surge in the relative size of the elderly population. Thus after two generations, the birth waves produced by a rapid decline in fertility accentuate the effects of population aging. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 35-53 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Stable population, waves, transition, growth rate, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525420 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525420 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:35-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: K. N. S. Yadava Author-X-Name-First: K. N. S. Author-X-Name-Last: Yadava Author-Name: S. N. Yadava Author-X-Name-First: S. N. Author-X-Name-Last: Yadava Author-Name: D. Sarin Author-X-Name-First: D. Author-X-Name-Last: Sarin Title: Population growth under changed fertility schedule in stability conditions Abstract: Some formulae for population projection have been derived under stability conditions. The proposed formulae are also illustrated with some numerical values of the parameters involved therein. The merits and shortcomings are also discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 55-65 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Stable and stationary populations, birth trajectory, maternity function, fertility schedule, gradual change, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525421 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525421 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:55-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carl Schmertmann Author-X-Name-First: Carl Author-X-Name-Last: Schmertmann Author-Name: Diana Oya Sawyer Author-X-Name-First: Diana Oya Author-X-Name-Last: Sawyer Title: Migration bias in indirect estimates of regional childhood mortality levels Abstract: Demographers often use Brass-style indirect methods to obtain childhood mortality estimates for regions within developing countries. Regional populations are not closed to migration, however, and mortality reports of women resident in a certain region on the survey date may contain information on events and exposure that occurred elsewhere as the mother migrated. Including this “imported”; mortality information may cause significant bias in regional estimates. In this paper the authors: (1) investigate the possible magnitude of migration bias using a multiregional simulation model, (2) propose a modification to standard methods which should reduce bias in many circumstances, and (3) apply the modified technique to data from Brazil's 1980 Census. We find that migration bias can indeed be significant, and that in the specific case of Sao Paulo state, imported mortality information may result in overestimates of local mortality levels of 10-15% when using Brass-style methods. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 69-93 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Migration, mortality, indirect estimation methods, Brass methods, Brazil, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525424 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525424 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:69-93 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: R. H. Norden Author-X-Name-First: R. H. Author-X-Name-Last: Norden Title: On the distribution of completed parities when fertility is heritable Abstract: Over the last one hundred years, there has been, in many developed countries, a demographic convergence towards the two child family. The possible implications for population growth of such a tendency are considered in this paper in terms of both family limitation and also the intergenerational transmission of fertility. These two effects interact so that as the proportion of two-child families increases, the possible influence of mother-daughter fertility associations on population growth decreases, though even now it could override otherwise significant changes in either or both of the birth and death intensities. In particular, it is shown that according as to how fertility is transmitted through generations, it is still possible to have zero growth rates consistently with a widely dispersed stable distribution of family size as well as a typical mortality regime. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 95-128 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Population, family, limitation, intergenerational, fertility, fecundity, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525425 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525425 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:95-128 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adrian Raftery Author-X-Name-First: Adrian Author-X-Name-Last: Raftery Author-Name: Steven Lewis Author-X-Name-First: Steven Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis Author-Name: Akbar Aghajanian Author-X-Name-First: Akbar Author-X-Name-Last: Aghajanian Author-Name: Michael Kahn Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Kahn Title: Event history modeling of world fertility survey data Abstract: Event history analysis seems ideally suited for the analysis of World Fertility Survey, WFS, data, which consists of full birth histories and related information, but it has not been much used for this purpose. This may be because event history analysis has practical drawbacks for WFS data, namely partial dates, computational burden, the need to take account of five clocks at once and the difficulty of interpreting coefficients. We propose a modeling strategy for the event history analysis of WFS data which overcomes these problems, and we apply it to the previously unanalyzed WFS data from Iran. This yields estimates of the time of onset of fertility decline and the extent to which it was due to compositional changes in the population. It also enables us to determine whether it was a period effect, a cohort effect, or both. These results would have been hard to obtain using other approaches. In addition, the usefulness of ACE as an exploratory tool for determining the best coding of independent variables is illustrated. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 129-153 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: ACE, age-period-cohort analysis, BIC, Iran Fertility Survey, Total Fertility Rate, unobserved heterogeneity, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525426 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525426 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:129-153 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alexandra Milik Author-X-Name-First: Alexandra Author-X-Name-Last: Milik Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz Author-X-Name-First: Alexia Author-X-Name-Last: Prskawetz Title: Slow-fast dynamics in a model of population and resource growth Abstract: Models of the interaction of population, the economy, and the environment often contain nonlinear functional relationships and variables that move at different speeds. These properties foster apparent unpredictabilities in system behaviour. Using a simple deterministic model of demographic, economic and environmental interactions we illustrate the usefulness of geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental population economics. In contrast to local stability analysis, the theory of slow-fast dynamics helps to gain new insights into the global behaviour of the system. In particular, the knowledge of the basins of attraction of the stationary states enables one to determine the regions of sustainable future paths of resources and population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 155-169 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 1996 Keywords: Slow-fast dynamics, sustainability, Malthusian population growth, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525427 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489609525427 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:155-169 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 3 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525430 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525430 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Minato Nakazawa Author-X-Name-First: Minato Author-X-Name-Last: Nakazawa Author-Name: Ryutaro Ohtsuka Author-X-Name-First: Ryutaro Author-X-Name-Last: Ohtsuka Title: Analysis of completed parity using microsimulation modeling Abstract: Inter-individual relationship is essential for population reproduction in small-scale populations so that the microsimulation model was constructed using the processes of death, marriage, and birth. For examination of sensitivity of the model, 6 parameter sets, based on 3 fertility/mortality levels and 2 marriage systems, were applied to the completed parity data of the Gidra, one such a population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 173-186 Issue: 3 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Completed parity, Microsimulation analysis, Papua New Guinea, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525431 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525431 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:173-186 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeng Yi Author-X-Name-First: Zeng Author-X-Name-Last: Yi Author-Name: James Vaupel Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Vaupel Author-Name: Wang Zhenglian Author-X-Name-First: Wang Author-X-Name-Last: Zhenglian Title: A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application Abstract: This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 187-216 Issue: 3 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Household, Projection, Consistency, Scenarios, Policy, Ageing, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525432 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525432 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:187-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zhongdong Ma Author-X-Name-First: Zhongdong Author-X-Name-Last: Ma Author-Name: Kao-Lee Liaw Author-X-Name-First: Kao-Lee Author-X-Name-Last: Liaw Title: Explaining hierarchical and interprovincial migrations of Chinese young adults by personal factors and place attributes: A nested logit analysis Abstract: This paper uses a two-level nested logit model to explain the inter-stratum (city, town and rural county) and interprovincial migration behaviors of the young adults (aged 17-29) in China during a three-year period (1985-87), based on the micro data of the 1987 National Population Survey. The migration propensity of each person is represented by a departure probability and a destination choice probability. These probabilities are then expressed as functions of personal factors and place attributes. The main findings are that personal factors are of paramount importance in explaining the departure behaviors, and that both departure and destination behaviors responded to market forces in a sensible way, despite government control on territorial movements. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 217-239 Issue: 3 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Nested logit model, Inter-stratum, Interprovincial migrations, China Communicated by Hisashi Inaba, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525433 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525433 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:217-239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jianfa Shen Author-X-Name-First: Jianfa Author-X-Name-Last: Shen Author-Name: Nigel Spence Author-X-Name-First: Nigel Author-X-Name-Last: Spence Title: Modelling regional population growth in China Abstract: This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level. The model is calibrated using the 1982 census data and 1987 one-percent population survey data. Other data sources have also been used to estimate and prepare necessary input data for the multiregional population model. Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national population trend is a combination of various regional population trends. Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the next century. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 241-274 Issue: 3 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Multiregional modelling, Forward demographic rates, Population accounts, Population projection, Population model, China, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525434 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525434 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:241-274 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Schoen Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen Author-Name: Young Kim Author-X-Name-First: Young Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: Exploring cyclic net reproduction Abstract: This paper advances a new approach that provides closed form expressions for the birth trajectory produced by a regime of changing vital rates. An exponentiated sinusoidal net maternity function is considered in detail, as populations with cyclically varying net maternity are of particular interest because of their connection to the Easterlin hypothesis. The dynamics of the model are largely determined by the ratio of the population's generation length (A) to the period of cyclicity (T), and relatively simple expressions are found for the phase difference and relative amplification of the birth and net reproduction functions. More generally, an analytical expression for a population's birth trajectory is derived that applies whenever net reproductivity can be written as an exponentiated Fourier series. In the cyclic model, Easterlin's inverse relationship between cohort size and cohort fertility holds whenever the phase difference is zero. At other phase differences, the birth-reproduction equations have the form of predator-prey equations. The present analytical approach may thus be relevant to analyses of interacting populations. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 277-290 Issue: 4 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Net maternity, Cyclic populations, Fourier series, Easterlin hypothesis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525437 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525437 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:277-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: J. H. Pollard Author-X-Name-First: J. H. Author-X-Name-Last: Pollard Author-Name: E. J. Valkovics Author-X-Name-First: E. J. Author-X-Name-Last: Valkovics Title: On the use of the truncated Gompertz distribution and other models to represent the parity progression functions of high fertility populations Abstract: The Gompertz distribution, developed from the mortality “law”; long used by actuaries and demographers promises to be a useful distribution for many other demographic purposes as well. The continuous distribution can also be adapted to represent discrete data commonly encountered in demographic work, and maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters are easily calculated using formulae developed in this paper, whether those data be continuous or discrete, truncated below or provided with observations in a final open-ended interval. The distribution is unimodel. The use of the truncated form of the distribution, however, allows the researcher to fit it to a wider range of observed distributions, including many for which the density function is monotonic decreasing. Empirical studies using parity progression data of two high fertility populations indicate that the truncated Gompertz distribution in its discrete form provides a good overall picture of the parity distribution. Interestingly, the simple method of partial sums, commonly employed to fit the Gompertz function, appears to provide parameter estimates which are close to those estimated by maximum likelihood. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 291-305 Issue: 4 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Gompertz, Partial sum, Parity progression table, Truncated Gompertz distribution, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525438 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525438 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:291-305 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: German Rodriguez Author-X-Name-First: German Author-X-Name-Last: Rodriguez Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov Author-X-Name-First: Dimiter Author-X-Name-Last: Philipov Title: Fitting the Coale-Trussell model by maximum quasi-likelihood Abstract: We describe a method for fitting the Coale-Trussell model to fertility rates or to counts of births and exposure by single years of age. The procedure maximizes a quasi-likelihood function and can easily be implemented using standard software. An extension to handle covariates is discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 307-317 Issue: 4 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Coale-Trussell model, Quasi-likelihood, Fertility, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525439 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525439 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:307-317 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Juha Alho Author-X-Name-First: Juha Author-X-Name-Last: Alho Author-Name: Jukka Nyblom Author-X-Name-First: Jukka Author-X-Name-Last: Nyblom Title: Mixed estimation of old-age mortality Abstract: The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is subject to considerable random error, but important prior information exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the statistical estimation of linear models. We extend the method to cover general maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the mixed estimator can be represented approximately as a weighted average of the purely data based estimator and the auxiliary estimator. The methods can be applied to the analysis of the old-age mortality via logistic and Poisson regression. A major advantage of the mixed estimator is the simplicity with which it can incorporate partial prior information. Moreover, no special software is needed in the fitting. We show how the targeting methods of Coale and Kisker can be represented as mixed estimation in a natural way that is more flexible than the original proposal. We also derive empirical estimates of the target information based on pooled data from several countries with high quality data. We consider the mortality of Finland at ages 80 +, study the reliability of the evidence of mortality crossover, and derive estimates of life expectancy at age 100. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 319-330 Issue: 4 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 Keywords: Bayesian estimation, Expert judgment, Generalized linear models, Life tables, Logistic regression, Mortality crossover, Poisson regression, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525440 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525440 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:319-330 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni Title: Book review Abstract: Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions. by Andrei Rogers. John Wiley & Sons. 1994. 236 pp. Incl. IBM PC Disk with SPACE Computer Program. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 331-333 Issue: 4 Volume: 6 Year: 1997 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525441 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525441 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:331-333 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arvind Pandey Author-X-Name-First: Arvind Author-X-Name-Last: Pandey Author-Name: S. N. Dwivedi Author-X-Name-First: S. N. Author-X-Name-Last: Dwivedi Author-Name: R. N. Mishra Author-X-Name-First: R. N. Author-X-Name-Last: Mishra Title: A stochastic model for the study of last closed birth interval with some biosocial components Abstract: We present a stochastic model to describe variation in last closed birth interval for women of a given marriage duration by parity as well as regardless of parity. The model is derived under some simplified assumptions relating to human reproduction process accounting for the non-exposure period in the beginning of the reproductive life caused by such biosocial components as adolescent sterility and temporary separation between the partners called as an inoperative period. We illustrate the model regardless of parity on an observed set of data taken from a rural area of northern India and estimate the risk of conception before and after the first birth. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-27 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 1998 Keywords: Parity, Adolescent sterility, Risk of conception, Truncation bias, Marriage duration, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525444 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525444 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:1-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Barendregt Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Barendregt Author-Name: Gerrit Van Oortmarssen Author-X-Name-First: Gerrit Author-X-Name-Last: Van Oortmarssen Author-Name: Ben Van Hout Author-X-Name-First: Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Van Hout Author-Name: Jacqueline M. Van Den Bosch Author-X-Name-First: Jacqueline M. Van Den Author-X-Name-Last: Bosch Author-Name: Luc Bonneux Author-X-Name-First: Luc Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneux Title: Coping with multiple morbidity in a life table Abstract: One of the applications of the multi-state life table is in the field of Public Health, with states defining various levels of health or functional ability. Another approach is to model Public Health by looking at the impact of individual diseases, but, unfortunately, then two practical problems arise: there are many diseases, and due to comorbidity people may be in several diseases states simultaneously. Both problems tend to make the number of states in the life table unpractically large. In this paper we introduce the proportional multi-state life table. It is especially designed to cope relatively easily with a large number of diseases simultaneously, while allowing for comorbidity. We provide proof of validity and an example implementation for cardiovascular disease. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 29-49 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 1998 Keywords: Multi-state life table, Illness-death processes, Comorbidity Submitted by C. M. Suchindran, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525445 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525445 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:29-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anatoli Yashin Author-X-Name-First: Anatoli Author-X-Name-Last: Yashin Author-Name: Ivan Iachine Author-X-Name-First: Ivan Author-X-Name-Last: Iachine Author-Name: Kirill Andreev Author-X-Name-First: Kirill Author-X-Name-Last: Andreev Author-Name: Ulla Larsen Author-X-Name-First: Ulla Author-X-Name-Last: Larsen Title: Multistate models of postpartum infecundity, fecundability and sterility by age and parity: Methodological issues Abstract: How do hidden physiological processes influence estimates of fecundability and sterility? Does unobserved heterogeneity play a role in these estimates? To address these questions mathematical models of the reproductive process are needed. It is not well known how to evaluate characteristics of reproductive models based on observed reproductive history data, and such models may not be identifiable without ancillary information. However, little is known about how to introduce ancillary information into reproductive models. Furthermore, even if such information was involved, the use of standard software packages for maximization of the likelihood function is often not feasible, because the function cannot be represented in an explicit parametric form. In this paper we propose an approach which represents the likelihood function in a form useful for further analysis. This approach is based on multistate models of the basic physiological processes that influence reproductive outcomes, and it is suitable in applications where ancillary information is given in the form of hazard rates. As an alternative, a competing risks model with incomplete information is discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 51-78 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 1998 Keywords: Reproductive history models, Unobserved heterogeneity, Fertility Submitted by C.M. Suchindran, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525446 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525446 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:51-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicholas Barkalov Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas Author-X-Name-Last: Barkalov Title: On solutions of the cohort parity analysis model Abstract: The cohort parity analysis (CPA) model of David et al. (1988) is studied formally as a three-state parity-progression table. The general solution is found in a form of convex combination of a finite set of solutions which are described explicitly. A parameterization is suggested for a broad subset of solutions which includes two extreme solutions studied in the original publication and maintains the dimension of the entire set. The CPA solution is also treated as a random variate distributed uniformly on the set of all possible solutions. An algorithm is given for computing the marginal distributions without Monte Carlo simulation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 79-107 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 1998 Keywords: Cohort parity analysis, Parity-progression table, Stochastic inequality, Uniform distribution on a polytope, Uniform order statistics, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525447 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525447 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:79-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maia Martcheva Author-X-Name-First: Maia Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva Author-Name: Fabio Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: A two-sex age-structured population model: Well posedness Abstract: In this paper we consider a two-sex population model proposed by Hoppenstead. We do not assume any special form of the mating function. We address the problem of existence and uniqueness of continuous and classical solutions. We give sufficient conditions for continuous solutions to exist globally and we show that they have in fact a directional derivative in the direction of the characteristic lines and satisfy the equations of the model with the directional derivative replacing the partial derivatives. The existence of classical solutions is established with mild assumptions on the vital rates. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 111-129 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Two-sex population model, classical solutions, continuous solutions, directional derivative, sexually transmitted diseases, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525450 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525450 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:111-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ursula Henz Author-X-Name-First: Ursula Author-X-Name-Last: Henz Author-Name: Johannes Huinink Author-X-Name-First: Johannes Author-X-Name-Last: Huinink Title: Problems concerning the parametric analysis of the age at first birth Abstract: The application of parametric split models to analyse the birth of the first child is discussed by applying the model of Coale and McNeil and the log-logistic model. We show that serious problems of estimating the final survival probability may occur when the empirical age distribution of the analysed event is not fully known and the model deviates considerably from the empirical distribution. We suggest strategies to handle these problems in a pragmatic way. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 131-145 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Parametric split models, Coale-McNeil, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525451 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525451 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:131-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Frank Denton Author-X-Name-First: Frank Author-X-Name-Last: Denton Author-Name: Byron Spencer Author-X-Name-First: Byron Author-X-Name-Last: Spencer Title: How old is old? Revising the definition based on life table criteria Abstract: Sixty-five has long been thought of as the point of entry into “old age.”; We propose a number of life table criteria for answering the following questions: If 65 was considered appropriate four decades ago, what is the corresponding age today? If 65 was (implicitly) a male-oriented definition four decades ago, as we believe it was, what would have been the appropriate definition for women at that time, and what is it today? We address these questions by applying our criteria to Canada, using 1951 and 1991 life tables, but the criteria could be applied equally well to other countries. For other developed countries we would expect broadly similar results. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 147-159 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Definition of old, life table criteria, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525452 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525452 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:147-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Shavelle Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Shavelle Author-Name: David Strauss Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Strauss Title: A long period multistate life table using micro data Abstract: The multistate life table (MLT) has been widely used by demographers for the past twenty years. However, the pivotal Markov condition upon which the entire methodology rests is rarely satisfied in practice. We lessen reliance upon the assumption by computing transition probabilities for longer periods of time than was previously practical. An extended Kaplan-Meier estimator accomplishes this task, simultaneously addressing the issue of censoring. This allows for the construction of a long period MLT. We provide an illustrative example of a 10-year period MLT, with comparison to a 1-year period MLT. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 161-177 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Kaplan-Meier estimator, longitudinal data, micro data, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525453 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525453 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:161-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrei Rogers Author-X-Name-First: Andrei Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers Title: Preface Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 3 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525456 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525456 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrei Rogers Author-X-Name-First: Andrei Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers Author-Name: James Raymer Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer Title: Estimating the regional migration patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States: 1950-1990 Abstract: The regional distribution of the foreign-born population is determined by two principal migration processes: internal and external migration, modified, of course, by the impacts of mortality. (Since the fertility of the U.S. foreign-borns increases only the population of native-borns, it only needs to be included in studies of the regional distribution of the U.S. native-born population.) In this paper, we apply model schedules to graduate data on the internal and external regional migration patterns of the foreign-born population for the 1950-1990 period. Prior to the graduation we “cleanse”; the observed foreign-born data of obvious inconsistencies and errors arising from a small sample size. No observed data are available for emigration, forcing us to draw on methods of indirect estimation to obtain it. To find estimates of the unrecorded migration flows in-between the four census-defined periods in our study (that is, for 1950-1955, 1960-1965, 1970-1975, and 1980-1985) we interpolate between the data of adjacent census time periods. Finally, we combine the estimated migration data with the corresponding mortality data to calculate and analyze the multiregional life tables and projections associated with each five-year time interval. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-216 Issue: 3 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525457 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525457 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:181-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ge Lin Author-X-Name-First: Ge Author-X-Name-Last: Lin Title: Assessing structural change in U.S. migration patterns: A log-rate modeling approach Abstract: A set of log-rate models is proposed to transform Rogers and Wilson's accounting-based migration models into statistics-oriented migration models. This study demonstrates not only how log-rate models can be used to replicate results generated from Rogers-Wilson's cohort and multi-region mobility models, but also how log-rate models can be used to make statistical inferences and to derive more parsimonious models. Estimation issues and model fit are discussed, and case studies with U.S. mobility and interregional migration data are provided. The flexibility of log-rate models is emphasized, and possible uses for such models, such as the testing of various hypotheses and migration projection, are explored. Potential applications and limitations of log-rate models are also discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 217-237 Issue: 3 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Log-rate model, Mobility, Multi-region migration, Cohort-change, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525458 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525458 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:217-237 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Title: Modeling approaches to the indirect estimation of migration flows: From entropy to EM Abstract: The paper presents probability models to recover information on migration flows from incomplete data. Models are used to predict migration and to combine data from different sources. The parameters of the model are estimated from the data by the maximum likelihood method. If data are incomplete, an extension of the maximum likelihood method, the EM algorithm, may be applied. Two models are considered: the binomial (multinomial) model, which underlies the logit model and the logistic regression, and the Poisson model, which underlies the loglinear model, the log-rate model and the Poisson regression. The binomial model is viewed in relation to the Poisson model. By way of illustration, the probabilistic approach and the EM algorithm are applied to two different missing data problems. The first problem is the prediction of migration flows using spatial interaction models. The probabilistic approach is compared to conventional methods, such as the gravity model and entropy maximization. In fact, spatial interaction models are particular variants of log-linear models. The second problem is one of unobserved heterogeneity. A mixture model is applied to determine the relative sizes of different migrant categories. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 239-278 Issue: 3 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Migration, Missing data, Probability models, Entropy, Maximum likelihood, EM, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525459 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525459 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:239-278 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stuart Sweeney Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Sweeney Title: Model-based incomplete data analysis with an application to occupational mobility and migration accounts Abstract: In many planning and policy research settings available secondary data sources may be incapable of answering pertinent research questions because certain variable combinations are unavailable. One solution to this constraint is to try to construct the desired data using information from multiple data sources and prior information. Current methods for accomplishing this task tend to focus predominantly on updating transaction matrices (input-output tables, transportation flows, or interregional migration accounts) and emphasize an algorithmic approach to the problem. This paper attempts to broaden the applications and generalize the solution by extending the model-based approach to incomplete data analysis advocated by Willekens (1982). The log-linear model is presented here as a flexible platform for incomplete data analysis and a path diagram describes several alternative modeling approaches; different paths are determined by the level of available information. The paper concludes with an application to incomplete occupational migration and mobility tables. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 279-305 Issue: 3 Volume: 7 Year: 1999 Keywords: Incomplete Data, Log-linear models, Generalized linear models, Occupational Migration and Mobility, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525460 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489909525460 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:279-305 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 4 Volume: 7 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525463 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525463 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nan Li Author-X-Name-First: Nan Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar Author-X-Name-First: Shripad Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar Title: The solution of time-dependent population models Abstract: We analyze the dynamics of age-structured population renewal when vital rates make a transition in a finite time interval from arbitrary initial values to any specified final values. The general solution to the renewal equation in such cases is obtained. This solution describes the birth sequence explicitly, and also leads to a general formula for population momentum. We show that the duration of the transition determines the complexity of the solution for the birth sequence. For transitions that are completed in a time smaller than the maximum age of reproduction, we show that the classical Lotka solution found in every textbook also applies, with a small modification, to the time-dependent case. Our results substantially extend previous work that has often focused on instantaneous transitions or on slow and infinitely persistent change in vital rates. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 311-329 Issue: 4 Volume: 7 Year: 2000 Keywords: Population model, Time-dependent, General solution, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525464 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525464 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:311-329 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anastasia Kostaki Author-X-Name-First: Anastasia Author-X-Name-Last: Kostaki Author-Name: Jan Lanke Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Lanke Title: Degrouping mortality data for the elderly Abstract: Proposed in this paper is a technique for estimating, from coarsly grouped empirical death data, the age-specific numbers of deaths for the elderly population. This question is primarily of interest in countries where the empirical data are available only in a grouped form, given usually in quinquennial age groups and in a large open-ended interval for the ages 85 and over. The main reason that the official data are given in such a form in some countries of Southern Europe and in the Third World is the existence of heaping in the empirical data, i.e. misstatements in age recording, usually rounding to the nearest integer divisible with five. Our evaluation of the method on Swedish mortality data shows that the technique proposed can be efficiently applied to period mortality data. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 331-341 Issue: 4 Volume: 7 Year: 2000 Keywords: Heaping, expansion techniques, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525465 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525465 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:331-341 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: A. Prskawetz Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Prskawetz Author-Name: G. Steinmann Author-X-Name-First: G. Author-X-Name-Last: Steinmann Author-Name: G. Feichtinger Author-X-Name-First: G. Author-X-Name-Last: Feichtinger Title: Human capital, technological progress and the demographic transition Abstract: We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality - separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium - as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively - we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 343-363 Issue: 4 Volume: 7 Year: 2000 Keywords: population growth, economic growth, non-linear model, capital, equilibrium, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525466 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525466 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:343-363 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hisashi Inaba Author-X-Name-First: Hisashi Author-X-Name-Last: Inaba Title: Persistent age distributions for an age-structured two-sex population model Abstract: In this paper we formulate an age-structured two-sex population model which takes into account a monogamous marriage rule and the duration of marriage. We are mainly concerned with the existence of exponential solutions with a persistent age distribution. First we provide a semigroup method to deal with the time-evolution problem of our two-sex population model. Next, by constructing a fixed point mapping, we prove the existence of exponential solutions under homogeneity conditions. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 365-398 Issue: 4 Volume: 7 Year: 2000 Keywords: Two-Sex Population Dynamics, Marriage Model, Exponential Solutions, Persistent Age Distributions, Fixed Point Theorem, Semigroups, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525467 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525467 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:365-398 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar Author-X-Name-First: Shripad Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar Title: Preface: New directions in demographic theory Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525470 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525470 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Georgiy Bobashev Author-X-Name-First: Georgiy Author-X-Name-Last: Bobashev Author-Name: Stephen Ellner Author-X-Name-First: Stephen Author-X-Name-Last: Ellner Author-Name: Douglas Nychka Author-X-Name-First: Douglas Author-X-Name-Last: Nychka Author-Name: Bryan Grenfell Author-X-Name-First: Bryan Author-X-Name-Last: Grenfell Title: Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data Abstract: Dynamical epidemic studies are often based on the reported number of cases. For various purposes it would be helpful to have information about the numbers of susceptibles, but these data are rarely available. We show that under general theoretical assumptions it is possible to reconstruct, up to linear scaling parameters, the dynamics of the susceptible class, as well as the rate of recruitment to the susceptible class, based only on case report data. We demonstrate that susceptible data reconstructed by our method improve the performance of forecasting models. Our estimate of susceptible class dynamics also can be used to estimate the age distribution of recruitment into the susceptible class, if the birth rate is known from independent data. Simulation experiments show that the reconstruction is robust to errors in the reporting scheme. This work was motivated by measles in large developed-world cities prior to immunization programs; our theoretical assumptions are empirically justified for measles but should also be applicable to some other diseases with permanent immunity. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-29 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Mathematical epidemiology, measles, susceptibility, forecasting, modeling, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525471 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525471 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:1-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence Carter Author-X-Name-First: Lawrence Author-X-Name-Last: Carter Title: Imparting structural instability to mortality forecasts: Testing for sensitive dependence on initial conditions with innovations Abstract: This article explores a nontraditional approach to examining the problem of forecast uncertainty in extrapolative demographic models. It builds on prior research on stochastic time series forecast models, but diverges to examine their deterministic counterparts. The focus here is an examination of the structural integrity of the Lee-Carter (1992) method applied to mortality forecasts. I investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the Lee-Carter method, particularly its sensitive dependence of the forecasts on the initial conditions of the model. I examine the Lee-Carter nonlinear demographic model, mx,t — exp (ax+ bxkt + ex,t), which is decomposed using SVD to derive a single time-varying linear index of mortality, kt. From a 90 year time series of kt, forty nine 40 year realizations are sampled. These realizations are modeled and estimated using Box-Jenkins techniques. The estimated parameters of these realizations and the first case of each of the samples are the initial conditions for the iterations of nonlinearized transformation of k, to exp (kt). The terminal year for each of the 49 iterated series is 2065. The deterministic nonlinear dynamics of this system of 49 iterated series is investigated by testing its Lyapunov exponents as a nonparametric diagnostic of a one dimensional dynamical system. The exponents are all negative, indicating that chaos is not prevalent in this system. The nonexistence of chaos suggests stability in the model and reaffirms the predictability of this one dimensional map. Augmenting the iterations of the initial conditions with additive stochastic innovations, {et, t ≥ 1}, creates a stochastic dynamical system of the form, kt = kt,-1 — c + ϕ flu +et. Here, et is treated as a surrogate for some unanticipated time series event (e.g. an epidemic) that impacts the deterministic map. Gaussian white noise innovations do not move the iterations far from equilibrium and only for short time intervals. So, stepping the mean of the innovations by .01 produces stable Lyapunov exponents until the mean equals .35 where some of the exponents are positive. At this point, deterministic chaos is evident, implying instability in the forecasts. The substantive implications of this instability are discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 31-54 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525472 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525472 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:31-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: C.Y. Cyrus Chu Author-X-Name-First: C.Y. Cyrus Author-X-Name-Last: Chu Author-Name: Huei-Chung Lu Author-X-Name-First: Huei-Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Lu Title: Predator-prey models with endogenous decisions Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 55-71 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525473 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525473 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:55-71 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Juha Alho Author-X-Name-First: Juha Author-X-Name-Last: Alho Author-Name: Matti Saari Author-X-Name-First: Matti Author-X-Name-Last: Saari Author-Name: Anne Juolevi Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Juolevi Title: A competing risks approach to the two-sex problem Abstract: The measurement of nuptiality rates is complicated by the fact that a marriage can be attributed both to the woman and the man involved. This is an example of the so called two-sex problem of mathematical demography. Several theoretical solutions have been proposed, but none has found universal acceptance. We introduce an individual level stochastic model based on competing risks ideas. The model shows explicitly how behavioral factors influence the accuracy of the various models. Although the product model is shown to be the only one that is invariant with respect to the units in which time and age are measured, different behavioral considerations may lead to different definitions of the population at risk. We show that the marriage models are only expected to differ empirically, if the numbers of marriageables vary abruptly in close ages. In an attempt to use data analysis to determine the best fitting risk population, we apply moving averages, approximately polynomial models, and subspace fitting models to Finnish age-specific marriage data, mostly from 1989. The results are conflicting. Depending on the criterium used, different models provide the best fit. We also study the role of the models in the forecasting of marriages. In some circumstances, an erroneous choice of the population at risk model can be compensated by a particular forecasting method. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-90 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525474 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525474 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:73-90 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nan Li Author-X-Name-First: Nan Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Marcus Feldman Author-X-Name-First: Marcus Author-X-Name-Last: Feldman Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar Author-X-Name-First: Shripad Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar Title: Sex ratio at birth and son preference Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 91-107 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525475 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525475 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:91-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martina Morris Author-X-Name-First: Martina Author-X-Name-Last: Morris Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525477 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525477 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martina Morris Author-X-Name-First: Martina Author-X-Name-Last: Morris Author-Name: Mirjam Kretzschmar Author-X-Name-First: Mirjam Author-X-Name-Last: Kretzschmar Title: A microsimulation study of the effect of concurrent partnerships on the spread of HIV in Uganda Abstract: This paper examines the potential impact of concurrent partnerships on HIV spread in Uganda using microsimulation. We represent a population of individuals, the sexual partnerships that they form and dissolve over time, and the spread of an infectious disease as a stochastic process. Data from the 1994 Ugandan sexual network survey are used to establish baseline outcomes, and the baseline is compared to sequential monogamy, increased concurrency and increased number of partnerships. The observed level of concurrency raises the number of infected cases by about 26% at the end of 5 years compared to sequential monogamy. Increasing both the number of partnerships and the rate of concurrency together has a stronger impact than increasing either alone. If risk behaviors were slightly higher at the start of the Ugandan epidemic, concurrency may have amplified the prevalence of HIV by a factor of 2 or 3. The public health implications are that data must be collected properly to measure the levels of concurrency in a population, and that messages promoting “one partner at a time”; are as important as messages promoting fewer partners. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 109-133 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: HIV, transmission, behavior, microsimulation, Africa, networks, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525478 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525478 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:109-133 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eline Korenromp Author-X-Name-First: Eline Author-X-Name-Last: Korenromp Author-Name: Carina van Vliet Author-X-Name-First: Carina Author-X-Name-Last: van Vliet Author-Name: Roel Bakker Author-X-Name-First: Roel Author-X-Name-Last: Bakker Author-Name: Sake de Vlas Author-X-Name-First: Sake Author-X-Name-Last: de Vlas Author-Name: J. Dik Author-X-Name-First: J. Author-X-Name-Last: Dik Author-Name: F. Habbema Author-X-Name-First: F. Author-X-Name-Last: Habbema Title: HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM Abstract: We studied how sexual behaviour affects population HIV spread simulating stylized risk profiles: (1) prostitution, no short relationships (resembling settings in South-East Asia); (2) prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling South-America and urban sub-Saharan Africa); (3) no prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling rural sub-Saharan Africa); (4) prostitution, serial short relationships (a generic low-risk setting). We explored the impact on HIV prevalence of prevention programs accomplishing postponement of sexual debut, reduction in partner change rate and in prostitution. We described the representation of sexual behaviour in the microsimulation model STDSIM, comparing it to non-individual-based models. The profiles generate markedly different time courses of HIV spread. Concentration of risk causes a rapid initial spread (Profiles 1 and 2), whereas the final prevalence depends more on the overall extent of risk behaviour in the general population (highest for Profiles 2 and 3). Effects of partnership reduction are strongly context dependent. Small decreases in numbers of partners reduce HIV spread considerably if they reflect decreases in the contacts of highest risk in that setting. In settings with risk behaviour dispersed over a large part of the population (Profiles 2 and 3), indirect effects can cause the impact on HIV to be disproportionately large compared to the magnitude of behaviour change. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 135-173 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Models, HIV/AIDS, prevention, sex partners, behaviour change, developing countries, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525479 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525479 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:135-173 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hans Hansen Author-X-Name-First: Hans Author-X-Name-Last: Hansen Title: An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda Abstract: Many AIDS related population processes are unobservable or very difficult to record, not least in developing countries. Population processes with AIDS tend to be highly complex, moreover. In this paper we present a stochastic one-parent model in continuous time that incorporates heterogeneity and duration dependence in the hazards, the probabilities of transition being established by stochastic microsimulation with time and subsequent life state as the random elements. The model allows for transition between three stages of infection and disease development (HIV negative, HIV positive, and full-blown AIDS). The presentation includes the renewal theory required for obtaining coherent estimates of the stable growth rate and the age structure of multistate populations with AIDS. The basic simulation results in terms of a relational database (two tables) allows of consistent prediction by a wide range of complex demographic processes at the level of individuals and one-parent families. In an example based on recent population data from Uganda HIV positive women are assumed to have fertility rates 20% lower than HIV negative women, while HIV positive women with AIDS in the terminal state have 60% lower fertility. Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to be the same for HIV negative and HIV positive persons until they develop AIDS. The model is then used to study the demographic changes induced by the epidemic, in three scenarios differentiated solely by the level of age-specific risk of infection. Interestingly, the gloomy model-based predictions are not contradicted by the currently available data fragments on population development and AIDS in Uganda. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 175-203 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525480 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525480 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:175-203 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Travis Porco Author-X-Name-First: Travis Author-X-Name-Last: Porco Author-Name: Sally Blower Author-X-Name-First: Sally Author-X-Name-Last: Blower Title: HIV vaccines: The effect of the mode of action on the coexistence of HIV subtypes Abstract: We analyze a mathematical model of the simultaneous transmission of two HIV subtypes and their control by vaccines. Two vaccines are analyzed which utilize different mechanisms, one in which the vaccine take differs for each subtype, and the other in which a different level of reduced infectivity results after infection by each subtype. The equilibrium outcome is different for each case; equilibrium coexistence of the two subtypes is possible in the differential take model, but not in the differential reduced infectivity model. This is a first step in understanding the interaction of HIV subtypes and differentially effective vaccines with different modes of action. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 205-229 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: HIV vaccine, mathematical model, HIV-1 subtype, HIV-1 clade, competitive exclusion, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525481 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525481 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:205-229 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martina Morris Author-X-Name-First: Martina Author-X-Name-Last: Morris Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 3 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525483 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525483 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martina Morris Author-X-Name-First: Martina Author-X-Name-Last: Morris Author-Name: John O'Gorman Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: O'Gorman Title: The impact of measurement error on survey estimates of concurrent partnerships Abstract: This paper uses simulation to examine the role that measurement error may play in survey estimates of concurrent partnerships. Concurrent partnerships accelerate the spread of a sexually transmitted infection, making data on concurrency important for modeling and public health purposes. Methods for collecting data on concurrency typically rely on the reporting of dates. Little is known about the accuracy or reliability of estimates from such data. We examine the possible impact of two types of date reporting error here: unit heaping, which is often imposed by the survey instrument, and recall error. The impact of these errors depends on the underlying behavior pattern. When the interval that persons spend single between partners is small compared to the interval when partnerships overlap, it is easier for errors to create a concurrent partnership where none exists than to eliminate one that does. Under these conditions, measurement errors introduce a slight positive bias in estimates of the prevalence of concurrent partnerships, and a slight negative bias in the length of the overlap. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 231-249 Issue: 3 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: HIV, transmission, behavior, microsimulation, Africa, networks, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525484 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525484 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:231-249 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Geoff Garnett Author-X-Name-First: Geoff Author-X-Name-Last: Garnett Author-Name: Simon Gregson Author-X-Name-First: Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Gregson Title: Monitoring the course of the HIV-1 epidemic: The influence of patterns of fertility on HIV-1 prevalence estimates Abstract: An age structured model of heterosexual HIV-1 transmission is used to explore the impact of observed patterns of fertility on measures of HIV prevalence derived from child bearing women. Observed reductions in fertility caused by women being outside sexual unions before the age of 20 years, the influence of bacterial sexually transmitted infections and the influence of HIV associated morbidity are all included in the model. We illustrate how the biases in prevalence estimates for a localised epidemic can change with time since the start of the epidemic. As the average age of HIV infected women increases, the over-estimate of prevalence from antenatal clinic samples first increases and then declines. This works in opposition to the influence of HIV-1 on fertility, which causes HIV-1 prevalence to be under-estimated initially. Additionally a reduction in fertility associated with bacterial infection in the highest sexual activity classes causes a substantial under-estimate of HIV prevalence initially, but with the greater HIV associated mortality in this population the bias reduces rapidly. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 251-277 Issue: 3 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Human immunodeficiency virus, HIV-1 surveillance, fertility, transmission dynamics, antenatal clinic, sentinel sites, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525485 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525485 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:251-277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Masayuki Kakehashi Author-X-Name-First: Masayuki Author-X-Name-Last: Kakehashi Title: Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting Abstract: Realistic models have a larger number of parameters than simple models do. In such realistic models some of the parameter values will be less realistic because of the availability and the difficulty in estimation. On the contrary, a simple model with a smaller number of parameters of which reliable values are available can make reliable prediction if the simple model has involved the essential structure of phenomena. In this paper we propose a simple pair formation model for HIV spread by heterosexual transmission. By setting the parameters involved in the model as close as the actual situation in Japan, we examined whether the outcome is consistent with the observation. The outcome suggested plausible range for some unknown parameters. How to deal with inevitably ambiguous parameters is discussed. The model is ready to be used for other countries than Japan and the validity of such an analysis is also discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 279-292 Issue: 3 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: HIV, mathematical model, pair formation, prediction, Japan, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525486 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525486 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:279-292 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Schoen Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen Author-Name: Young Kim Author-X-Name-First: Young Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: A dynamic multistate model of robustness and frailty Abstract: Dynamic multistate models can show realistic population dynamics over time, model complex cycles, and encompass the life history of a cohort. This paper uses a recently developed approach to obtain the analytic solution of a time-dependent multidimensional differential equation. The illustrative robust/frail model presented shows that the assumption of fixed individual frailty can be abandoned in a two living state model that allows transitions between health statuses and nonproportional hazards of death. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 293-304 Issue: 4 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Dynamic, multistate, frailty, Markov, heterogeneity, closed form, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525488 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525488 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:293-304 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anatoli Yashin Author-X-Name-First: Anatoli Author-X-Name-Last: Yashin Author-Name: Ivan Iachine Author-X-Name-First: Ivan Author-X-Name-Last: Iachine Author-Name: Alexander Begun Author-X-Name-First: Alexander Author-X-Name-Last: Begun Title: Mortality modeling: A review Abstract: Looking at survival in terms of biological indicators of aging has given rise to various models of mortality, some of which we review here. The most notable models are that of Strehler and Mildvan, which relates the force of mortality to the ability of organisms to compensate for stress, and that of Sacher and Trucco, which describes the role played by homeostatic forces in shaping the age-specific pattern of mortality. The analysis of longitudinal data in aging studies now incorporates the notions of heterogeneity and frailty, as well as that of changes in the “repair capacity”; of organisms. Furthermore, attention is now being paid to evolutionary theory and to models of senescence. These models and directions for further research are discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 305-332 Issue: 4 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Heterogeneity, Frailty, Homeostasis, Repair capacity, Antagonistic pleiotropy, Evolution, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525489 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525489 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:305-332 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Holger Strulik Author-X-Name-First: Holger Author-X-Name-Last: Strulik Title: On demographic transition, structural change, and economic growth and stagnation Abstract: The paper analyzes an economy with an agrarian and an industrial sector. Demand is determined by Engel's Law. Population growth follows a non-linear income dependent path according to the theory of demographic transition. In case of decreasing returns to scale in the agrarian sector the existence of a stable low-income equilibrium with high population growth can be shown. If this equilibrium is globally unstable, the system evolves towards a steady-state of perpetual economic growth and low population growth. The path of demographic transition coincides with a path of structural change from an economy specialized in agriculture to a fully industrialized economy. The introduction of an income dependent savings rate allows the interpretation of the low-income equilibrium as a limit cycle and, therefore, the explanation of high fluctuations in population growth and per capita income in least developed economies. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 333-356 Issue: 4 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Demographic transition, Economic growth, Structural change, Limit cycles, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525490 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525490 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:333-356 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shang-Gong Sun Author-X-Name-First: Shang-Gong Author-X-Name-Last: Sun Title: Estimation of life expectancy — cohort life table Abstract: Life tables are traditionally built with linear assumptions for the survival curve. Here, considering that survivors can remain at the end of the observation period, the author shows that non linear modeling is more appropriate. With data on cervix uteri cancer, e0 ≈ 12.5 years with standard error ≈ 2.8 years with infinite time horizon, but e0 ≈ 6.0 years with standard error ≈ 0.1 year in interval with finite time horizon [0, 12 years]. The average hazard function is introduced to estimate the life expectancy, and the actuarial estimate of the hazard function is showed to under-estimate the true hazard values under the exponential distribution. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the probabilities of death on the estimation of life expectancy completes the study. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 357-376 Issue: 4 Volume: 8 Year: 2000 Keywords: Life expectancy, Taylor expansion, Hazard function, Actuarial estimate, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525491 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525491 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:357-376 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Aubin Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Pierre Author-X-Name-Last: Aubin Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Author-Name: Franck Maurin Author-X-Name-First: Franck Author-X-Name-Last: Maurin Title: Non-linear structured population dynamics with co-variates Abstract: Co-variates are incorporated into a general model of non-linear structured population dynamics. The proof of the existence and uniqueness of the solutions results from those of a special set, the invariance envelope. It is also valid in presence of state constraints, and solutions need only to have a closed graph (instead of being weakly differentiable as requested in semi-group theory). Moreover, this invariance envelope provides a simple way to build the solutions, either explicitly in the linear exogenous case, or algo-rithmically in the non-linear case, both with co-variates. The case of age-structured systems and a model of demographic transition are discussed for illustration. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-31 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2000 Keywords: Lotka-McKendrick, Viability theory Communicated by S. Tuljapurkar, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525493 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525493 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:1-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Author-Name: Piero Manfredi Author-X-Name-First: Piero Author-X-Name-Last: Manfredi Author-Name: Alessandro Valentini Author-X-Name-First: Alessandro Author-X-Name-Last: Valentini Title: Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: Multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy Abstract: We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one-sex, stable population model to evaluate structural and long-term effects of changes in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba (1995) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on reproduction and on the age structure of the population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 33-63 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2000 Keywords: Stable population theory, multistate demography, transition to adulthood, population ageing, macrosimulation, Italy, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525494 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525494 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:33-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gunter Steinmann Author-X-Name-First: Gunter Author-X-Name-Last: Steinmann Author-Name: Manfred Jager Author-X-Name-First: Manfred Author-X-Name-Last: Jager Title: Immigration and integration nonlinear dynamics of minorities Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 65-82 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2000 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525495 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525495 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:65-82 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anastasia Kostaki Author-X-Name-First: Anastasia Author-X-Name-Last: Kostaki Title: A relational technique for estimating the age-specific mortality pattern from grouped data Abstract: This paper presents a new technique of expanding an abridged life table. This technique is a non-parametric one, which relates the probabilities of dying of the abridged table to those of a standard complete table. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the new technique we use it, as well as two other techniques, for expanding empirical abridged data sets. According to the results of our calculations the new method proves very efficient in producing complete life tables from grouped data, in many cases producing more accurate results than the other two methods in spite of its simplicity. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 83-95 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2000 Keywords: Expansion techniques, probabilities of dying, age pattern of mortality, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525496 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525496 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:83-95 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Dagsvik Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Dagsvik Author-Name: Helge Brunborg Author-X-Name-First: Helge Author-X-Name-Last: Brunborg Author-Name: Ane Flaatten Author-X-Name-First: Ane Author-X-Name-Last: Flaatten Title: A behavioral two-sex marriage model Abstract: In this paper we propose a particular marriage model, i.e., a model for the number of marriages for each age combination as a function of the vectors of the number of single men and women in each age group. The model is based on Dagsvik (2000) where it is demonstrated that a general type of matching behavior imply, under specific assumptions about the distribution of the preferences of the women and men, a convenient expression for the corresponding marriage model. Data from the Norwegian Population Register for nine years are applied to estimate the model. We subsequently test the hypothesis that, apart from a random “noise”; component, the age-specific parameters of the model change over time according to a common trend. We find that the hypothesis is not rejected by our data. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 97-121 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 Keywords: Two-sex demographic models, Marriage models, Two-sided matching, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525498 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525498 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:97-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maia Martcheva Author-X-Name-First: Maia Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva Author-Name: Fabio Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: The mathematics of sex and marriage, revisited Abstract: We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two-sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten-year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-141 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 Keywords: Two-sex population, Marriage, Modeling, Simulation, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525499 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525499 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:123-141 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sharon Yan Author-X-Name-First: Sharon Author-X-Name-Last: Yan Author-Name: Ulla Larsen Author-X-Name-First: Ulla Author-X-Name-Last: Larsen Title: A non-linear model of fecundability, postpartum amenorrhea, and sterility Abstract: This paper proposes a convolution model of fecundability, controling for the effects of postpartum amenorrhea and unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability. Simulation analysis was used to assess the validity and reliability of estimates derived from the model. Analysis showed that the model captured the mean and standard deviation of age at the onset of sterility in simulated populations where sterility followed either a Gompertz, a gamma, or a lognormal distribution. The model performed well when sterility was specified by either a lognormal or a gamma distribution. The model also accurately estimated fecundability and postpartum amenorrhea. Next, the model was found to fit data from 17th and 18th century French Canadian birth histories. In this French Canadian sample the mean age at sterility was found to be 46.3 years using a gamma model. The decline in fecundability was almost linear after age 30. Thus, fecundability at age 40 had declined to about one-third of that observed at age 30. Variability in individual fecundability was quite high. For example, women with fecundability one standard deviation above the mean had about 2.3 times as high fecundability as women one standard deviation below the mean. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 143-164 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 Keywords: Convolution model, Gompertz, gamma, and lognormal distributions, Unobserved heterogeneity, Microsimulation, French Canadian birth histories, Reproductive process, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525500 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525500 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:143-164 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: D. A. Freedman Author-X-Name-First: D. A. Author-X-Name-Last: Freedman Author-Name: P. B. Stark Author-X-Name-First: P. B. Author-X-Name-Last: Stark Author-Name: K. W. Wachter Author-X-Name-First: K. W. Author-X-Name-Last: Wachter Title: A probability model for census adjustment Abstract: The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 165-180 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525501 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525501 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:165-180 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tim Futing Liao Author-X-Name-First: Tim Futing Author-X-Name-Last: Liao Title: How responsive is U.S. population growth to immigration? A situational sensitivity analysis Abstract: There has been public concern about the effect of immigration on population growth in the U.S. But how responsive is population growth to immigration? This paper examines the sensitivity of intrinsic population growth to immigration and situates such sensitivity in fertility and survival changes. The application of second derivatives on a modified Leslie matrix facilitates the analysis of situational sensitivity of U.S. population growth to immigration. The results show that the sensitivity to immigration is not as influential as the sensitivity to fertility, and that the sensitivity to immigration further depends on changes in fertility and survival. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 217-229 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 Keywords: Leslie matrix, Sensitivity analysis, Population growth, Immigration, U.S, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525505 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525505 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:217-229 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicolas Bacaër Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas Author-X-Name-Last: Bacaër Title: The asymptotic behavior of the McKendrick equation with immigration Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the influence of immigration in a mathematical model for the evolution of the age structure of a population. Under a subcritical hypothesis, the age structure converges to a steady state. A small program simulating the model is presented and used for some projections concerning the population of France. The link with a more complex model is also emphasized. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-20 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306716 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306716 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:1-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zheng Wu Author-X-Name-First: Zheng Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Nan Li Author-X-Name-First: Nan Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: Immigration and the dependency ratio of a host population Abstract: This paper examines the long-term impact of constant immigration on the dependency ratio in an SI population (a stationary population through constant immigration) in the context of the stable population model. Our analysis has three main findings. First, in SI populations, a younger population (a lower aging ratio) does not necessarily have a lower dependency ratio. An SI population has a lower dependency ratio than a closed stationary population, provided immigration is concentrated around the youngest working age in the host population. Second, under the same condition, selecting high-fertility immigrants increases the dependency ratio. Third, also under the same condition, substituting working-age immigrants with young (dependent) immigrants increases the dependency ratio. Using the United Nations model age structures of immigrants, our empirical illustration confirms these analytical results. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 21-39 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306715 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306715 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:21-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Salvatore Bertino Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore Author-X-Name-Last: Bertino Author-Name: Eugenio Sonnino Author-X-Name-First: Eugenio Author-X-Name-Last: Sonnino Title: The stochastic inverse projection and the population of Velletri (1590-1870) Abstract: A new stochastic method of inverse projection based on the simulation of age and sex of deaths is proposed. The method is implemented in two procedures, i.e., SIPAV (forward inverse projection) and SIPIN (backward inverse projection). The two procedures are used to study the history of the population of Velletri from 1590 to 1870. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 41-73 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306717 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306717 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:41-73 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kao-Lee Liaw Author-X-Name-First: Kao-Lee Author-X-Name-Last: Liaw Author-Name: William Frey Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Frey Title: Location of adult children as an attraction for black and white elderly return and onward migrants in the United States: Application of a three-level nested logit model with census data Abstract: This article assesses the influence of the location of adult children on the 1985-90 interstate migration of black and white elderly "nonnatives" (i.e., those whose state of residence in 1985 was different from their state of birth) in the United States, based on the application of a three-level nested logit model with 1990 census data. The model accounts for (1) the choice between departing and staying put, (2) the choice between return and onward migration, and (3) the choice of a specific destination. The main findings are as follows. First, elderly nonnatives were strongly attracted by the location of their adult children when they made their migration decisions at all levels of the choice framework, and this attraction was stronger for the widowed than for those of other marital statuses. This finding can be taken as empirical support for Eugene Litwak's theory of the modified extended family. Second, in the return/onward and destination choice processes, the attraction of the location of adult children was found to be stronger for whites than for blacks. This finding is consistent with the finding of Hogan et al. (1993) that whites had stronger inter-generational connections than did blacks. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 75-98 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306713 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306713 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:75-98 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert McNown Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: McNown Title: Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States Abstract: This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series models of fertility. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 99-126 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306712 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306712 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:99-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Dunson Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Dunson Title: Incorporating heterogeneous intercourse records into time to pregnancy models Abstract: Information on the timing of intercourse relative to ovulation can be incorporated into time to pregnancy models to improve the power to detect covariate effects, to estimate the day-specific conception probabilities, and to distinguish between biological and behavioral effects on fecundability, and therefore the probability of conception in a menstrual cycle. In this paper, Bayesian methods are proposed for joint modeling of intercourse behavior and biologic fecundability. The model accommodates a sterile subpopulation of couples, general covariate effects, and heterogeneity among fecund couples in menstrual cycle viability and in frequency of unprotected intercourse. Methods are described for incorporating cycles with varying amounts of intercourse information into a single analysis. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is outlined for estimation of the posterior distributions of the unknowns. Themethods are applied to data from a North Carolina study of couples attempting pregnancy. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 127-143 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306714 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306714 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:127-143 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Grimm Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Grimm Title: Family and economic growth: A review Abstract: The interplay between fertility decisions and per capita growth of income by investment decisions in human capital constitutes the key element of growth models based on the microeconomic theory of family behavior. A strategy that raises the fixed cost per child, reduces the cost of education, stimulates the accumulation of human capital, diminishes the opportunity cost of parents to send their children to school, encourages female activity, accelerates economic development and contributes to a reduction of inequality. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 145-173 Issue: 3 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306719 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306719 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:145-173 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Julien Arino Author-X-Name-First: Julien Author-X-Name-Last: Arino Author-Name: P. van den Driessche Author-X-Name-First: P. van den Author-X-Name-Last: Driessche Title: A multi-city epidemic model Abstract: Some analytical results are given for a model that describes the propagation of a disease in a population of individuals who travel between n cities. The model is formulated as a system of 2n 2 ordinary differential equations, with terms accounting for disease transmission, recovery, birth, death, and travel between cities. The mobility component is represented as a directed graph with cities as vertices and arcs determined by outgoing (or return) travel. An explicit formula that can be used to compute the basic reproduction number, {\cal R}_0 , is obtained, and explicit bounds on {\cal R}_0 are determined in the case of homogeneous contacts between individuals within each city. Numerical simulations indicate that {\cal R}_0 is a sharp threshold, with the disease dying out if {\cal R}_0 1 . Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 175-193 Issue: 3 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306720 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306720 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:175-193 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Schoen Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen Title: Dynamic populations with uniform natural increase across states Abstract: Multistate populations with changing rates of interstate transfer are an example of compartment models and depict the experience of persons in distinct but intercommunicating states. Such models can be used in analyses of many demographic phenomena, including migration, labor force participation, and health status. This paper extends present knowledge of the relationships prevailing in such dynamic models by developing procedures that yield closed form expressions relating transfer rates to the state-specific population trajectories that they generate. The focus is on a subset of multistate models that do not recognize age and that have restricted variability in rates of transfer and natural increase. Dynamics in the two state, no-growth case, where the two time-varying transfer rates always sum to a constant value, are analyzed in depth. In specified models with any number of intercommunicating states, sine and cosine fluctuations in the transfer rates are shown to yield sine and cosine fluctuations in the numbers of persons in each state. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 195-210 Issue: 3 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306718 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306718 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:195-210 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Agnes Lievre Author-X-Name-First: Agnes Author-X-Name-Last: Lievre Author-Name: Nicolas Brouard Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas Author-X-Name-Last: Brouard Author-Name: Christopher Heathcote Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Heathcote Title: THE ESTIMATION OF HEALTH EXPECTANCIES FROM CROSS-LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS Abstract: The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate parameterized transition probabilities of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model of movements between the health states disability-free, disabled, and death. A complication is that individuals are observed at irregular intervals, implying that particular attention must be paid to computational issues. Numerical results including estimated health expectancies and their standard errors are given for data from the Longitudinal Study on Aging (LSOA) of 1984-86-88-90 (Kovar et al. 1992). The weak ergodicity of prevalence on the non-absorbing states is established and supports the hypothesis of the compression of morbidity. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 211-248 Issue: 4 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 X-DOI: 10.1080/713644739 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713644739 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:211-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Harry Haupt Author-X-Name-First: Harry Author-X-Name-Last: Haupt Author-Name: Walter Oberhofer Author-X-Name-First: Walter Author-X-Name-Last: Oberhofer Author-Name: Thomas Reichsthaler Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Reichsthaler Title: A VARYING-COEFFICIENT APPROACH TO ESTIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE Abstract: Household formation analysis is both a multidimensional economical and statistical problem of great complexity. Since most of the literature tries to incorporate multiple economic aspects, there is, considering the extraordinary practical relevance of the problem, a remarkable gap between theory and application in this field. This paper tries to diminish this gap by a comprehensive treatise on the statistical site of the problem. Thus, we develop a model of household composition, where the evolution of the household membership rates is captured by a logit link-function and a multinomial distribution, which automatically fulfills the non-negativity and adding-up restrictions of the underlying probabilities. We use a varying-coefficients procedure by polynomially smoothing the household membership rates over age for every household size class and assuming a linear predictor in other variables. As an application we estimated and extrapolated the distribution of household sizes of an autonomous region using population register data. Our sample consisted of approximately 450,000 people living in about 170,000 households, grouped into nine different household size classes and classified into age classes from 0 to 90. The data covers a time span of 12 years, from 1986 to 1997. Empirical results show the robustness of the procedure even in case of low cell frequencies. Thus, there is no need for regional or age-group aggregations. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 249-273 Issue: 4 Volume: 10 Year: 2003 Keywords: Generalised linear model, multinomial logit model, nonparametric estimation, varying-coefficient model, local likelihood, household membership rate, X-DOI: 10.1080/713644740 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713644740 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:249-273 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gustav Feichtinger Author-X-Name-First: Gustav Author-X-Name-Last: Feichtinger Author-Name: Vladimir Veliov Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Veliov Author-Name: Tsvetomir Tsachev Author-X-Name-First: Tsvetomir Author-X-Name-Last: Tsachev Title: MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR AGE AND DURATION STRUCTURED SYSTEMS: A TOOL FOR OPTIMAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF HIV Abstract: Age and duration since infection are considered in a model of optimal control of the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in countries with high prevalence. Prevention and medical treatment are selected so as to maximize an economic objective function.The model extends the classical McKendrick equation. Necessary optimality conditions in the form of Pontryagin's global maximum principle and numerical solution based on them are presented. “Critical” initial prevalence is established numerically for which there are two optimal medical treatments: one intense and another less demanding. It is shown that treatment alone can be counterproductive: increase in treatment must be accompanied by increase in prevention. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 3-28 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 Keywords: age-structured systems, population dynamics, McKendrick equation, Pontryagin's maximum principle, infectious diseases, HIV, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422301 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490422301 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:1:p:3-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Robert Koyak Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Koyak Title: AN INVESTIGATION OF GENERALIZED RAKINGIN THE SYNTHETIC ESTIMATION OFPOPULATION SIZE Abstract: The problem of counting a population that is cross-classified with respect to demographic and geographic attributes is considered. A census is conducted in which individuals are “captured” with probabilities that are believed to be relatively constant within demographic categories. The census is followed by a random sample in which individuals are “recaptured” independently of the census. Using the two counts, capture-recapture estimates of the demographic category populations are obtained. A synthetic estimate of population size for a geographic entity is obtained by summing the corresponding adjustment factors (capture-recapture estimates divided by census counts) across all individuals captured by the census in the entity. The use of generalized raking is considered as a method for smoothing adjustment factors. It is found that generalized raking differs little from a class of weighted least squares regression models. This suggests that generalized raking does not offer an improvement over regression for smoothing adjustment factors. The efficiency loss of generalized raking relative to the best regression-based procedures can be substantial. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 29-49 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 Keywords: raking, smoothing, regression, census adjustment, synthetic estimation, post-stratification, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422310 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490422310 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:1:p:29-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Quincy Thomas Stewart Author-X-Name-First: Quincy Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Stewart Title: BRASS' RELATIONAL MODEL: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Abstract: Brass' relational model is based on a linear relationship between the logits of the cumulative probability of dying before age x in a standard mortality distribution and those observed in any population. In this study the appropriate way to estimate the linear parameters associated with Brass' model is clarified. Five methods are presented to estimate the coefficients associated with Brass' relational model. Each method is applied to simulated data to examine the efficiencies of each model in mortality estimation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 51-72 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422329 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490422329 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:1:p:51-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christopher Heathcote Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Heathcote Author-Name: Tim Higgins Author-X-Name-First: Tim Author-X-Name-Last: Higgins Title: REGRESSION MODELLING OF MORTALITY SURFACES AND THE DECELERATION OF MORTALITY Abstract: A mortality surface is a measure of mortality indexed by year and age. A central limit theorem for aggregate data is established for the mortality surface defined by the logistic transform of the year and age-specific probability of death and this is used to postulate and estimate a regression model. Extra variance may be the result of heterogeneity within cohorts, and it is shown how the model based on aggregate data could be decomposed to accommodate sub-cohorts by using proportional odds. In the absence of disaggregated data, excess variance is modelled as a function of age and year and estimation is done by maximum likelihood. The parametric surface so estimated is used to examine deceleration of mortality at old ages and trends in deceleration are discussed with reference to selection and heterogeneity. The results are applied to mortality data from the Netherlands for 1890-1991, ages 50-90. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-91 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 Keywords: aging, deceleration, heterogeneity, mortality, mortality surface, regression, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490478229 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490478229 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:73-91 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paola Profeta Author-X-Name-First: Paola Author-X-Name-Last: Profeta Title: AGING, RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY IN A MODEL OF INTEREST GROUPS Abstract: What is the influence of aging on the duration of retirement and on social security transfers? A model of political economy permits to investigate the duration of retirement and the social security transfer at equilibrium with the total number of elderly. In an overlapping generation model with interest groups, an increase in the proportion of elderly tends to increase the total social security transfers. However, if the pressure exerted by a group is described by a function with decreasing marginal returns to size, an increase in the number of elderly decreases the duration of retirement and may decrease the per head social security transfer. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 93-120 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 Keywords: pressure groups, political economy, duration of retirement, social security transfer, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490479002 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490479002 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:93-120 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Giorgio Fagiolo Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio Author-X-Name-Last: Fagiolo Author-Name: Luigi Marengo Author-X-Name-First: Luigi Author-X-Name-Last: Marengo Author-Name: Marco Valente Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Valente Title: ENDOGENOUS NETWORKS IN RANDOM POPULATION GAMES Abstract: Population learning in dynamic economies traditionally has been studied in contexts where payoff landscapes are smooth. Here, dynamic population games take place over “rugged” landscapes, where agents are uncertain about payoffs from bilateral interactions. Notably, individual payoffs from playing a binary action against everyone else are uniformly distributed over [0, 1]. This random population game leads the population to adapt over time, with agents updating both actions and partners. Agents evaluate payoffs associated to networks thanks to simple statistics of the distributions of payoffs associated to all combinations of actions performed by agents out of the interaction set. Simulations show that: (1) allowing for endogenous networks implies higher average payoff compared to static networks; (2) the statistics used to evaluate payoffs affect convergence to steady-state; and (3) for statistics MIN or MAX, the likelihood of efficient population learning strongly depends on whether agents are change-averse or not in discriminating between options delivering the same expected payoff. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 121-147 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 Keywords: dynamic population games, bounded rationality, endogenous networks, fitness landscapes, evolutionary environments, adaptive expectations, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490480622 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490480622 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:121-147 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Laura Temime Author-X-Name-First: Laura Author-X-Name-Last: Temime Author-Name: Pierre-Yves Boëlle Author-X-Name-First: Pierre-Yves Author-X-Name-Last: Boëlle Author-Name: Guy Thomas Author-X-Name-First: Guy Author-X-Name-Last: Thomas Title: Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling of Pneumococcal Resistance to Penicillin Abstract: A stochastic compartmental model of the progression of pneumococcal resistance to penicillin G in a human community is built, through intra-individual selection and inter-individual transmission. It is structured by the resistance level of colonizing bacteria and driven by jump intensity functions. The Markov process associated with the model tends to the solution of a deterministic system when the size of the population tends to infinity. The behavior of the stochastic mean sample path is simulated for small population sizes and compared to the solution of the limit deterministic system. For populations over 5,000 individuals, the deterministic solution is a good approximation of the mean stochastic sample path. Both stochastic and deterministic predictions have proved useful to understand resistance selection mechanisms and to evaluate strategies for resistance prevention, such as a reduction in antibiotic consumption or vaccination. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-16 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: antibiotic resistance, S. pneumoniae, deterministic models, stochastic models, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902154 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590902154 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:1:p:1-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrei Rogers Author-X-Name-First: Andrei Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers Author-Name: Luis Castro Author-X-Name-First: Luis Author-X-Name-Last: Castro Author-Name: Megan Lea Author-X-Name-First: Megan Author-X-Name-Last: Lea Title: Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods Abstract: Observed schedules of migration rates exhibit strong regularities in age patterns. These regularities may be captured and represented by a mathematical expression known as the multiexponential model migration schedule. Fitting this function to empirical data requires non-linear regression methods and often some experimentation with alternative initial estimates of the parameters. Simpler, linear methods of estimation are adequate for most applications. These may be carried out with hand calculators or simple spreadsheet-based calculations on the computer. Such methods are studied and appear to perform satisfactorily. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 17-38 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: migration, model schedules, linear estimation, age patterns, parameter transformations, typology of schedules, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902145 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590902145 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:1:p:17-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Basel Al-Eideh Author-X-Name-First: Basel Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Eideh Title: Estimation of the Parameters of a Survival Process with Downward Jumps in Life Table Abstract: Parameters for the birth and death diffusion life table model subject to downward jumps randomly occurring at a constant rate are estimated. The jump magnitudes have a beta distribution with support [0, lx], where lx is the total number of survivors prior to the jump. The estimation method is maximum likelihood. The Cramer-Rao Lower bound and the asymptotic distribution for the MLE are derived. The model is applied to the U.S. men's population from 1900 to 1999. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 39-50 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: birth and death diffusion process, maximum likelihood estimation, jump process, Cramer Rao lower bound, life table, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902163 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590902163 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:1:p:39-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: I. Akushevich Author-X-Name-First: I. Author-X-Name-Last: Akushevich Author-Name: A. Kulminski Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Kulminski Author-Name: K. G. Manton Author-X-Name-First: K. G. Author-X-Name-Last: Manton Title: Life Tables with Covariates: Dynamic Model for Nonlinear Analysis of Longitudinal Data Abstract: Life table models based on nonlinear dynamics of risk factors are developed using stochastic differential Equations for individual changes and on the resulting Fokker-Planck equation to describe population changes. Central to the model is a microsimulation strategy developed as a numerical procedure to represent a mortality effect when analytic approaches are not applicable. The model is applied to the Framingham Heart Study 46-year follow-up data. Life table functions and projections of risk factors are calculated to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on observable quantities over time. A set of statistically significant nonlinear contributions to covariate dynamics is identified. Their synergistic effect on dynamics and use of them as “new” risk factors are discussed. An important advantage of this approach is the ability to study the effects of health interventions at the individual level. This is illustrated in several examples. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 51-80 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: stochastic differential Equations, quadratic hazard, life table, risk factors, Fokker-Planck equation, longitudinal data, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590932296 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590932296 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:51-80 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Author-Name: Raffaella Piccarreta Author-X-Name-First: Raffaella Author-X-Name-Last: Piccarreta Title: Analyzing Demographic Life Courses through Sequence Analysis Abstract: Considering demographic life courses as sequences, non recurrent and recurrent sequences are distinguished from each other. The description of life courses in terms of sequences leads to distinguish atomistic from holistic and static from dynamic approaches. Optimal matching and a monothetic divisive algorithm for the clustering of sequences of life courses are shown to be useful tools. The methods are applied to the sequence analysis of the transition to adulthood from the Italian Fertility and Family Survey. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 81-106 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: life course, sequence analysis, monothetic divisive algorithms, optimal matching, multi-state demography, event history analysis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590932287 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590932287 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:81-106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Camille Roth Author-X-Name-First: Camille Author-X-Name-Last: Roth Author-Name: Paul Bourgine Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Bourgine Title: Epistemic Communities: Description and Hierarchic Categorization Abstract: Understanding the structure of knowledge communities, and particularly the organization of “epistemic communities”, or groups of agents sharing common knowledge concerns, is usually based on either social relationships or semantic similarity. To link social and semantic aspects, a formal framework based on Galois lattices (or concept lattices) categorizes epistemic communities in an automated and hierarchically structured way. The process rebuilds a whole community structure and taxonomy, and notably fields and subfields gathering a certain proportion of agents. It is applied to empirical data to exhibit these alleged structural properties, successfully compared with categories given by domain experts. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 107-130 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: social complex systems, community representation and categorization, scientometrics, applied epistemology, knowledge discovery in databases, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590931404 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590931404 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:107-130 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Dias Author-X-Name-First: Jose Author-X-Name-Last: Dias Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Title: Model-based Clustering of Sequential Data with an Application to Contraceptive Use Dynamics Abstract: Multi-state models describe the transitions people experience as life unfolds. The transition probabilities depend on sex, age, and attributes of the person and the context. Empirical evidence suggests that attributes that cannot be measured directly may at most be inferred from a long list of observable characteristics. A cluster-based, discrete-time multi-state model is presented, where transition probabilities are estimated simultaneously for several subpopulations of a heterogeneous population. The subpopulations are not defined a priori but are determined on the basis of similarities in behavior in order to determine which women exhibit similar characteristics with respect to method choice, method switch, discontinuation and subsequent resumption of contraceptive use. The data are from the life history calendar based on the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey 1996. The parameters of the model are estimated using the EM algorithm. Seven subpopulations with heterogeneous transition probabilities are identified. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 135-157 Issue: 3 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: finite mixture models, Markov models, unobserved heterogeneity, contraceptive use dynamics, life history calendar, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005168 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480591005168 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:135-157 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arnaud Valence Author-X-Name-First: Arnaud Author-X-Name-Last: Valence Title: Demand Dynamics in a Psycho-Socio-Economic Evolving Network of Consumers Abstract: In a model of demand dynamics, consumers are linked to each other both in the agent space and in the commodity space and are subject to viability constraints stipulating that only specific configurations of demand are possible. The viability of demand is re-established through both centralized and decentralized, social and learning coordination mechanisms. The framework leads to different results depending on the field of application. In market dynamics theory, the framework characterizes an a posteriori supply and demand law, where social mechanisms are market prices and learning mechanisms the endogenous adaptation of supply. In monetary regulation theory, coordination mechanisms are interest rates and agents' solvability is allowed through both micro and macro-monetary regulation. In a demand model with frustration, agents control their frustration using the representative frustration of society, and the decentralized learning mechanism leads to a selection of neighbors. In a model with consumer sub-groups, the demand regulation adds an identity-building process to lifestyles and mimetic behaviors to lifestyles. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 159-179 Issue: 3 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: consumers, endogenous preferences, reaction functions, evolutionary economics, dynamical networks, connectionist operators, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005177 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480591005177 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:159-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Title: A Review of: “Forecasting Product Liability Claims” Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-182 Issue: 3 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005186 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480591005186 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:181-182 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: P. Baili Author-X-Name-First: P. Author-X-Name-Last: Baili Author-Name: A. Micheli Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Micheli Author-Name: A. Montanari Author-X-Name-First: A. Author-X-Name-Last: Montanari Author-Name: R. Capocaccia Author-X-Name-First: R. Author-X-Name-Last: Capocaccia Title: Comparison of Four Methods for Estimating Complete Life Tables from Abridged Life Tables Using Mortality Data Supplied to EUROCARE-3 Abstract: To estimate mortality due to cancer, it is necessary to have mortality data by year of age in the population of cancer patients. When such data are not available, estimating one-year (complete) life tables from five-year (abridged) life tables is necessary. Four such methods—Elandt-Johnson, Kostaki, Brass logit, and Akima spline methods—are compared with respect to 782 empirical complete life tables pertaining to 19 European regions or countries, from 1954 to 2000. Abridged life tables are first derived from the empirical ones, then used to produce one-year-life tables by each of the four methods. These reconstituted complete life tables are then compared with the empirical complete life tables. Among the four methods, the Elandt-Johnson demographic method produces the best reconstitutions at adult ages, specifically those ages at which observed cancer survival needs to be corrected. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 183-198 Issue: 4 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: abridged life tables, complete life tables, EUROCARE-3, general mortality, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301751 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500301751 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:183-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jacques Demongeot Author-X-Name-First: Jacques Author-X-Name-Last: Demongeot Author-Name: Jules Waku Author-X-Name-First: Jules Author-X-Name-Last: Waku Title: Counter-Examples about Lower- and Upper-Bounded Population Growth Abstract: For a unimodal growth function f having its maximum at a critical state xc, the interval bounding the population size asymptotically is usually presented as being equal to [f○2(xc), f(xc)]. This interval however does not represent the maximum range within which the population size can vary, even asymptotically. The actual invariant interval containing the population size is equal to: [min(x*, f○2(xc)), f(xc)], where x* denotes the non-zero fixed point, assumed to be unique, of the iteration of f. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 199-209 Issue: 4 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: interval iteration, invariant domain, population dynamics, growth model, Verhulst model, Ricker model, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301785 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500301785 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:199-209 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Kassara Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Kassara Title: Feedback Spreading Control Applied to Immunotherapy Abstract: How should immunotherapy be controlled so as to eliminate cancer cells from a tissue? The populations of immune cells, tumor cells, chemokine and complexes are governed by four semilinear partial differential equations controlled by both the dosage of effector cells and the therapy zone. The corresponding control problems are formulated in the framework of feedback spreading control (FSC) seeking to expand the zones without tumor cells to the entire tissue. Algorithms for computing FSC laws are used to demonstrate how the dosage of effector cells and the therapy zones are determined in order to provide feedback therapy protocols which keep the patient healthy. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 211-221 Issue: 4 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Keywords: Immunotherapy, mathematical modelling, cell population dynamics, spreading control, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301819 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500301819 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:211-221 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Piet De Jong Author-X-Name-First: Piet Author-X-Name-Last: De Jong Author-Name: Leonie Tickle Author-X-Name-First: Leonie Author-X-Name-Last: Tickle Title: Extending Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Abstract: The Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting is outlined, discussed and improved utilizing standard time series approaches. The new framework, which integrates estimation and forecasting, delivers more robust results and permits more detailed insight into underlying mortality dynamics. An application to women's mortality data illustrates the methods. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: Lee-Carter method, forecasting, Kalman filtering, mortality, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452109 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500452109 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:1-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Steinsaltz Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Steinsaltz Author-Name: Kenneth Wachter Author-X-Name-First: Kenneth Author-X-Name-Last: Wachter Title: Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity Abstract: Generic relationships between heterogeneity in population frailty and flattening of aggregate population hazard functions at extreme ages are drawn from classical mathematical results on the limiting behavior of Laplace transforms. In particular, it shows that the population hazard function converges to a constant precisely when the distribution of unobserved heterogeneity in initial mortalities behaves asymptotically as a polynomial near zero. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 19-37 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: frailty, heterogeneity, biodemography, hazard functions, Laplace transforms, mortality plateaus, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452117 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500452117 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:19-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Giuseppe De Marco Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe Author-X-Name-Last: De Marco Author-Name: Maria Romaniello Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Romaniello Title: Dynamics of Mixed Coalitions Under Social Cohesion Constraints Abstract: The performance to a collective task may require a certain degree of cooperation among agents. Is cooperation viable in the sense that individual needs are fulfilled, compromises are possible and the task is performed? A model of cooperation is presented in which compromises are also ruled by cohesion among agents. Viability conditions are found associated with regulation law. They say that cooperation increases with cohesion. Moreover, reducing the rapidity of change of cooperation and lowering dissident behavior correct the dynamics so as to turn non viable states into viable ones. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 39-62 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: dynamic cooperative game, majority game, mixed coalition, cohesion constraint, viability theory, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452133 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500452133 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:39-62 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ahmad Hleihel Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Hleihel Title: Differences in Population Estimates Between an Administrative System and Census: The Case of Israel Abstract: The component method of population estimation relies on census counts, vital statistics, and internal and international migration. In Israel, all individuals' events are registered. To apply the component method, individuals' records from the census and the administrative data are aggregated to give population estimates. However, this method disconnects individual from aggregated characteristics, and differences appear in individual characteristics between census and administrative data. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics conducted individual follow-ups. The pros and cons of each method are presented. On average, individual estimates on statistical areas are larger than aggregate estimates, and the differences are stable after several years. The individual estimates are preferable under at least four situations: in conducting a registry of emigrants; in conducting a census of institutions; where administrative files are available; and where census method is suitable to this method. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 63-82 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: statistical areas, population estimates, census, component method, population registry, administrative files, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600619995 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600619995 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:63-82 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Prakash Gorroochurn Author-X-Name-First: Prakash Author-X-Name-Last: Gorroochurn Author-Name: Susan Hodge Author-X-Name-First: Susan Author-X-Name-Last: Hodge Title: Estimating Allele Frequencies and Inbreeding Coefficients in K-Allele Models Abstract: Some of the methods of estimation of allele frequencies and inbreeding coefficients in a K-allele model are examined. A result that has long been assumed to be true is proved. That is, in the presence of inbreeding, the maximum likelihood estimators of the allele frequencies and of the inbreeding coefficient f do not in general equal their observed (or sample) values (except when K = 2). A least-squares way of looking at the estimation problem is presented, and simulations are used to compare the three types of estimators (sample, maximum likelihood, and least-squares) in a 3-allele model. Probability generating functions are used to derive exact expressions for the bias of the sample estimator of f in a 2-allele model for any sample size, and those biases are calculated for a number of situations. Finally, an approximately unbiased estimator of the inbreeding coefficient when an allele is rare or common is proposed, and its bias is compared with that of the sample estimator and with that of an estimator proposed by Weir (1996). Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 83-103 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, maximum likelihood, least-squares, probability generating function, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620027 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600620027 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:83-103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nan Li Author-X-Name-First: Nan Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition Abstract: Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For stable population and instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Keyfitz found a simple formula for the momentum. Although Keyfitz's formula has been extended to cover gradual demographic transitions, the stable initial population, however, is still an obstacle to approaching reality. Using the solution of the Lotka equation with time-varying vital rates and extending it to negative values of time, exact and accurate formulae for the momentum of any initial population that undergoes a linear fertility transition are expressed. Examples using the data from the United Nations indicate that the accurate formula works well for the age structures that are far from stable such as the more and less developed regions, as well as that close to stable such as the least developed region. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 105-116 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: momentum, real population, linear fertility transition, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620035 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600620035 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:105-116 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli Author-Name: Tanya Kostova Author-X-Name-First: Tanya Author-X-Name-Last: Kostova Author-Name: Fabio Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: Epidemics in Wildlife Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 117-118 Issue: 3 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600878500 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600878500 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:117-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Frank Hilker Author-X-Name-First: Frank Author-X-Name-Last: Hilker Author-Name: Horst Malchow Author-X-Name-First: Horst Author-X-Name-Last: Malchow Title: Strange Periodic Attractors in a Prey-Predator System with Infected Prey Abstract: Strange periodic attractors with complicated, long-lasting transient dynamics are found in a prey-predator model with disease transmission in the prey. The model describes viral infection of a phytoplankton population and grazing by zooplankton. The analysis of the three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations yields several semi-trivial stationary states, among them two saddle-foci, and the sudden (dis-)appearance of a continuum of degenerated nontrivial equilibria. Along this continuum line, the equilibria undergo a fold-Hopf (zero-pair) bifurcation (also called zip bifurcation). The continuum only exists in the bifurcation point of the saddle-foci. Especially interesting is the emergence of strange periodic attractors, stabilizing themselves after a repeated torus-like oscillation. This form of coexistence is related to persistent and permanent ecological communities and to bursting phenomena. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 119-134 Issue: 3 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: Fold-Hopf (zero-pair) bifurcation, permanence, predation, strange periodic attractor, viral plankton infection, zip bifurcation, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788568 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600788568 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:119-134 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christopher Kribs-Zaleta Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Kribs-Zaleta Title: Vector Consumption and Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of T. cruzi Abstract: Recent research in the transmission of the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, some strains of which cause Chagas' disease, suggests that consumption of vectors by sylvatic hosts such as raccoons may play a role in maintaining the transmission cycle in the wild. As both hosts and vectors have been observed to invade new ecological niches, it is important to consider the effect vector consumption may have on vector density. For this reason a per individual contact rate is employed which rises roughly linearly for low vector densities and saturates for high densities. The model under study thus superimposes a predator-prey structure on a host-vector infection cycle (with first one, and then multiple, hosts). Outbreak behavior follows classical threshold behavior through the reproductive number R0, which allows evaluation of the importance of this transmission avenue relative to the traditional route. For sufficiently sharp contact rate saturation, two locally stable vector densities may exist. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 135-152 Issue: 3 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: Chagas' disease, contact rate saturation, predator-prey, vector consumption, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788576 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600788576 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:135-152 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Cedric Wolf Author-X-Name-First: Cedric Author-X-Name-Last: Wolf Author-Name: Michel Langlais Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Langlais Author-Name: Frank Sauvage Author-X-Name-First: Frank Author-X-Name-Last: Sauvage Author-Name: Dominique Pontier Author-X-Name-First: Dominique Author-X-Name-Last: Pontier Title: A Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Periodic Demography, Direct and Indirect Transmission and Variable Maturation Rate Abstract: A deterministic epidemic model describes the propagation of Puumala hantavirus within the bank vole population of Clethrionomys glareolus. The host population is split into juvenile and adult individuals. Demographic parameters are time periodic. A further spatial structure is considered using a multi-patch model. Indirect transmission through environment is considered. Maturation and dispersion rates for juvenile individuals are adult density-dependent. Using bifurcation techniques, small periodic perturbations of constant coefficients are shown to lead to the emergence of periodic endemic states from locally asymptotically stable stationary states. Numerical simulations show that in some circumstances the virus is favored by periodical dynamics compared with constant dynamics. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 153-177 Issue: 3 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: host-parasite system, spatial structure, periodical dynamics, density dependent maturation and dispersal rates, contaminated environment, endemic states, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788584 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600788584 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:153-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli Author-Name: Marek Kimmel Author-X-Name-First: Marek Author-X-Name-Last: Kimmel Title: Facing Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 179-179 Issue: 4 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950432 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950432 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:179-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Silvia Martorano Raimundo† Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Martorano Author-X-Name-Last: Raimundo† Author-Name: Hyun Mo Yang† Author-X-Name-First: Hyun Mo Author-X-Name-Last: Yang† Title: Transmission of Tuberculosis with Exogenous Re-infection and Endogenous Reactivation Abstract: A theoretical framework to assess the transmission dynamics of Tuberculosis (TB) is developed. Once infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, individuals can either develop active TB or remain infected for the rest of their life unless endogenous reactivation or exogenous re-infection occurs. The effects of vaccination and treatment of active TB cases suggest that even if these control strategies could have a significant effect on reducing TB incidence, the exogenous re-infection and the endogenous reactivation, mainly due to HIV infection, will still increase the incidence of TB. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-203 Issue: 4 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: endogenous reactivation, exogenous re-infection, mathematical modeling, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950457 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950457 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:181-203 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Roberts Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Roberts Title: Modeling Strategies for Containing an Invading Infection Abstract: An integral equation model of Kermack-McKendrick type is proposed for describing the dynamics of an infectious disease invading a susceptible population. Modifications of the model, including control strategies based on the isolation of infectious individuals and targeted vaccination, are described. In the model the incidence of infection is structured according to the location of exposure, and parameterization requires some knowledge of the infectivity kernel and the initial rate of exponential increase of cases. The model was motivated by the risk to a community from the global epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and the prospect of future epidemics of emerging infections. It is also applicable where terrorists may use an infectious agent such as smallpox as a weapon. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 205-214 Issue: 4 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950473 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950473 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:205-214 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Claudia Pio Ferreira† Author-X-Name-First: Claudia Pio Author-X-Name-Last: Ferreira† Author-Name: Petronio Pulino Author-X-Name-First: Petronio Author-X-Name-Last: Pulino Author-Name: Hyun Mo Yang† Author-X-Name-First: Hyun Mo Author-X-Name-Last: Yang† Author-Name: Lucy Tiemi Takahashi Author-X-Name-First: Lucy Tiemi Author-X-Name-Last: Takahashi Title: Controlling Dispersal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti Abstract: The dengue virus is transmitted in regions previously infested with the mosquito Aedes aegypti. To assess the spreading and establishment of the dengue disease vector, a mathematical model is developed that takes into account the diffusion and advection phenomena. A discrete model based on the cellular automata approach, which is a good framework to deal with small populations, is also developed to be compared with the continuous modeling. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 215-236 Issue: 4 Volume: 13 Year: 2006 Keywords: Aedes aegypti, biological invasion, cellular automata, control, dengue disease, diffusion equation, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950515 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950515 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:215-236 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tanya Kostova Author-X-Name-First: Tanya Author-X-Name-Last: Kostova Author-Name: Fabio Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090618 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480601090618 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nikolaos Sfikas Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos Author-X-Name-Last: Sfikas Author-Name: David Greenhalgh Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Greenhalgh Author-Name: Fraser Lewis Author-X-Name-First: Fraser Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis Title: The Basic Reproduction Number and the Vaccination Coverage Required to Eliminate Rubella from England and Wales Abstract: Bootstrapping is used to estimate the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies for rubella in England and Wales. It is assumed that rubella infection follows the deterministic age-structured model discussed by Dietz and Schenzle (1985). The bootstrap is used to estimate percentile confidence intervals for the basic reproductive number and the minimum elimination proportions under one and two stage vaccination campaigns for rubella. The results of differing mixing assumptions and the effects of kernel smoothing are also considered. Previous estimates of the basic reproduction number and minimum elimination vaccination proportions for rubella and similar diseases are discussed and the results compared with those of the article. For homogeneous mixing only, the estimates are much lower than previous estimates. For more realistic symmetric mixing a worse 'reasonable' vaccination coverage estimate of around 87% of children as young as possible is needed to eliminate rubella in England and Wales. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 3-29 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: basic reproduction number, bootstrap, immunization, minimum elimination vaccination strategy, mixing, rubella, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090634 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480601090634 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:3-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: R. Norman Author-X-Name-First: R. Author-X-Name-Last: Norman Author-Name: R. G. Bowers Author-X-Name-First: R. G. Author-X-Name-Last: Bowers Title: A Host-Host-Pathogen Model with Vaccination and its Application to Target and Reservoir Hosts Abstract: A simple theoretical framework is presented that addresses the question of how different vaccination strategies work against a pathogen which infects two species. This is first studied in purely theoretical terms to determine which equilibria will be stable for which parameter combinations. Two special cases are then presented, and the asymptotic population dynamical consequences of differing vaccination strategies are determined. In particular systems are described for which there is a wildlife host reservoir and a domestic (target) host. It is found that when the target host cannot maintain the disease alone, and the presence of the reservoir causes the target host to be eradicated by the disease, vaccinating the target species allows coexistence of the two species with the pathogen, but will not allow disease eradication. It is then shown that this result also holds when a proportion of the population is vaccinated at birth. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 31-56 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: disease, mathematical model, reservoir, target, vaccination, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090667 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480601090667 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:31-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz Author-X-Name-First: Shu-Fang Hsu Author-X-Name-Last: Schmitz Title: The Influence of Treatment- and Vaccination-induced Changes in the Risky Contact Rate on HIV Transmission Abstract: The influence of treatment- or vaccination-induced changes in the risky contact rate (RCR) on HIV transmission in the homosexual population of San Francisco is investigated, given the heterogeneous susceptibility and progression rates of the mutant allele CCR5 Δ32. Susceptible individuals have no, partial, or complete immunity against HIV. Some susceptible newcomers are vaccinated. Infected individuals have a slow, a normal, or a rapid progression rate. Some newly infected individuals are treated. Vaccinated and treated individuals may change the RCR, the influence of which is quantified by the change in the basic reproductive numbers obtained from differential equations. If vaccination increases (decreases) the RCR, the epidemic will decrease (increase). If the treatment increases (decreases) the RCR, the epidemic will increase (decrease). The influence of treated individuals is much higher than the influence of vaccinated individuals. Prophylactic effort should be devoted more to preventing an increase of the RCR in treated individuals than to preventing a decrease of the RCR in vaccinated individuals. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 57-76 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: basic reproductive number, contact rate, HIV transmission, homosexual, treatment, vaccination, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090683 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480601090683 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:57-76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicolas Brouard Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas Author-X-Name-Last: Brouard Author-Name: Silvia Pontone Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Author-X-Name-Last: Pontone Author-Name: Philippe Scherpereel Author-X-Name-First: Philippe Author-X-Name-Last: Scherpereel Title: Modeling Multisite Activity from Occupational Surveys: Deducing the Number of Anesthesiologists from a Count of Anesthesiology Posts in France Abstract: Reliable data on the total number of physicians practicing in France cannot be obtained from national professional or administrative files which are not kept to date. From a public health standpoint, the total number of physicians' posts in establishments matters more than the actual total number of physicians, although the latter is necessary for demographic projections and to determine training needs. Shared work in the same post is sometimes encouraged to avoid closure of the post or even of the establishment. The relationship between the total number of posts in an occupation and the total number of individuals working in those posts depend on the duration of a reference period for the enumeration. An original model of this relationship is developed and applied to a count of anesthesiology posts in France with different values of the reference period. Instead of the usual question “How many anesthesiologists are currently working in your hospital?” the model suggests that the right question is “How many anesthesiologists have been working in your institute since the last 2.5 weeks?”. The total number of anesthesia and intensive care practitioners estimated by the model is 8,992 which is lower than the direct count of 9,741 posts. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 77-92 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: anesthesiology, health manpower, mathematical modeling, professional practice, survey analysis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298335 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701298335 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:77-92 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Warren J. Ewens Author-X-Name-First: Warren J. Author-X-Name-Last: Ewens Author-Name: Arindam Roy Choudhury Author-X-Name-First: Arindam Roy Author-X-Name-Last: Choudhury Author-Name: Richard C. Lewontin Author-X-Name-First: Richard C. Author-X-Name-Last: Lewontin Author-Name: Carsten Wiuf Author-X-Name-First: Carsten Author-X-Name-Last: Wiuf Title: Two Variance Results in Population Genetics Theory Abstract: The assessment of the degree of genetic variation in a natural population, and the nature of that variation, is of central importance in both theoretical and applied population studies. Two “variance” results in population genetics theory are presented. For the first, expressions are found for the expected difference in the estimates of genetic variation in a population obtained by two investigators sampling from the same population in the same generation. The second result concerns the question of whether the degree of genetic variation in a population is best estimated by using the number of alleles observed in a sample of genes or by the number of polymorphic sites observed in the sample. For some combinations of the actual degree of variation and the sample size the former is preferred while for other combinations the latter is preferred. The reason for this is discussed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 93-110 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: alleles, estimation, genetics, optimality, sites, variance, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298376 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701298376 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:93-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nadia Lalam Author-X-Name-First: Nadia Author-X-Name-Last: Lalam Author-Name: Christine Jacob Author-X-Name-First: Christine Author-X-Name-Last: Jacob Title: Bayesian Estimation for Quantification by Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction Under a Branching Process Model of the DNA Molecules Amplification Process Abstract: The aim of Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction is to determine the initial amount X0 of specific nucleic acids from an observed trajectory of the amplification process, the amplification being achieved through successive replication cycles. This process depends on the efficiency {pn}n of replication of the DNA molecules, pn being the probability that a molecule will duplicate at replication cycle n. Assuming pn = p for all n, Bayesian estimators of the unknown parameter θ = (p, X0) are constructed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods under a Bienayme-Galton-Watson branching model of the amplification process. The Bayesian approach takes into account some prior information on the parameter. Relying on simulated data, the proposed Bayesian estimators and their credibility sets are shown to be quite accurate. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 111-129 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: 2000 mathematics subject classification: 60J85, 62F10, 92B15, 92D25, bayesian inference, branching processes, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298418 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701298418 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:111-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hisashi Inaba Author-X-Name-First: Hisashi Author-X-Name-Last: Inaba Title: Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events Abstract: Effects of age shift on the tempo and quantum of non-repeatable demographic events are examined. The purpose is to develop a period index theory based on the survival model and to provide a mathematically consistent interpretation of Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments. The survival model for non-repeatable events is introduced. In the time-inhomogeneous case, three types of period survival models are considered. McKendrick equation is used to formulate the risk population dynamics. The tempo and quantum indices for three period survival models are computed when the period age shift occurs for the hazard, the incidence, and the survival rates. Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment arguments are consistently based on the scenario of the period age shift on the survival rate, and they give translation formulae between period indices without referring to cohort. Traditional demographic translation formulae between cohort and period indices are reviewed to clarify differences between cohort- and period-oriented translation procedures. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 131-168 Issue: 3 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: age shift, non-repeatable event, quantum, survival model, tempo, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426225 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426225 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:131-168 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli Author-Name: Piero Manfredi Author-X-Name-First: Piero Author-X-Name-Last: Manfredi Title: Demographic Change and Immigration in Age-structured Epidemic Models Abstract: Immigration might be a remedy against the stress that low fertility causes to demographic and welfare systems. Sustained immigration, however, can alter both the demographic and epidemiological profiles of the receiving population. An age-structured SIR (susceptible-infective-recovered) model with realistic immigration under conditions of below replacement fertility is studied. Equilibria and threshold phenomena are characterized. The immigration profile and the epidemiological features of immigrants affect the reproduction number and the force of infection in the receiving population. Finally, an illustration is given, showing the potential effects of immigration for rubella control in Italy, by considering how the age profile of immigration influences the reproduction number of the disease. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 169-191 Issue: 3 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: age-structure, epidemic models, immigration, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426241 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426241 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:169-191 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Li Xu Author-X-Name-First: Li Author-X-Name-Last: Xu Author-Name: Qingguo Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Qingguo Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Author-Name: Xiangming Xiao Author-X-Name-First: Xiangming Author-X-Name-Last: Xiao Title: Convergence of a Discrete-Time Age-Structured Population Toward a Given Steady State Through Controlled Immigration Abstract: To explore the concept of stability in an age-structured population with migration, a Markov transition matrix model is built, where age classes can be of different length, and the time step is not necessarily equal to the length of the age class. The conditions under which a vector of the model has a steady population structure are identified, as well as those under which the age structure converges to a given steady state, through a series of decisions or controls of letting immigrants in or forbidding them entry into the country. The decisions are expressed as vectors of proportions of immigrants. In the steady state, when the increment of population is proportional to its size, the age- or stage-structure remains unchanged between transitions. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 193-201 Issue: 3 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Keywords: age-structured population, matrix model, stability, target-control, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426258 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426258 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:193-201 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MIRJAM KRETZSCHMAR Author-X-Name-First: MIRJAM Author-X-Name-Last: KRETZSCHMAR Author-Name: JACCO WALLINGA Author-X-Name-First: JACCO Author-X-Name-Last: WALLINGA Title: Editorial Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 203-209 Issue: 4 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612840 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612840 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:203-209 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JOHANNES MÜLER Author-X-Name-First: JOHANNES Author-X-Name-Last: MÜLLER Author-Name: VOLKER HÖSEL Author-X-Name-First: VOLKER Author-X-Name-Last: HÖSEL Title: Estimating the Tracing Probability from Contact History at the Onset of an Epidemic Abstract: Contact tracing is believed to be an effective method to control infectious diseases. If an infected person is noticed (the index case), one tries to find other infected persons through the contact history of the index case. The distribution of the total number of additionally detected persons per index case is derived, partially by heuristic arguments. The reproduction number influences this distribution only weakly, and the detection rate of index cases even less. This distribution depends mainly on the tracing probability. An estimator for the tracing probability is derived. This estimator is applied to data for tuberculosis and chlamydia. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 211-236 Issue: 4 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612857 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612857 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:211-236 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: M. C. BOILY Author-X-Name-First: M. C. Author-X-Name-Last: BOILY Author-Name: Z. ASGHAR Author-X-Name-First: Z. Author-X-Name-Last: ASGHAR Author-Name: T. GARSKE Author-X-Name-First: T. Author-X-Name-Last: GARSKE Author-Name: A. C. GHANI Author-X-Name-First: A. C. Author-X-Name-Last: GHANI Author-Name: R. POULIN Author-X-Name-First: R. Author-X-Name-Last: POULIN Title: Influence of Selected Formation Rules for Finite Population Networks with Fixed Macrostructures: Implications for Individual-Based Model of Infectious Diseases Abstract: Individual-based network models are increasingly being applied to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. Research in this area has mostly focused on networks defined under a limited set of rules (e.g., preferential attachment, sexual partner formation and dissolution) that are supposed to mimic the real world but are often defined heuristically due to lack of empirical knowledge. Here, two different mechanisms (M- and λ2-rules) were used to generate a wide range of networks and to show the extent to which microstructures such as the mean component size, the size of the giant component and the cumulative nomination centrality index may vary between networks with fixed predetermined macrostructure characteristics (size, node degree distribution and mixing pattern) and influence disease transmission. It is important to carefully consider the limitations of network models and to appreciate the extent to which a given degree distribution and mixing pattern will be consistent with a wide range of underlying network microstructures. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 237-267 Issue: 4 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612873 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612873 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:237-267 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: FREDRIK LILJEROS Author-X-Name-First: FREDRIK Author-X-Name-Last: LILJEROS Author-Name: JOHAN GIESECKE Author-X-Name-First: JOHAN Author-X-Name-Last: GIESECKE Author-Name: PETTER HOLME Author-X-Name-First: PETTER Author-X-Name-Last: HOLME Title: The Contact Network of Inpatients in a Regional Healthcare System. A Longitudinal Case Study Abstract: Contact networks are extracted for 295,108 inpatients over a two-year period from a database used for administering a local public healthcare system that serves 1.8 million individuals in Stockholm county. Structural and dynamic properties of the network that are important for the transmission of contagious diseases are analyzed by methods derived from network epidemiology. The contact networks are found to be very much determined by an extreme (age-independent) variation in the duration of hospital stays and the hospital structure. The structure of contacts between inpatients are found to exhibit structural properties such as a high level of transitivity, assortativity, and variation by number of contacts, which are likely to be of importance for the transmission of less contagious diseases. If these properties are considered when designing prevention programs, the risk and effect of epidemic outbreaks may be decreased. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 269-284 Issue: 4 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612899 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612899 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:269-284 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: Book Review of: "Indirect Sampling" by Pierre Lavallée Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 285-285 Issue: 4 Volume: 14 Year: 2007 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612907 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612907 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:285-285 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Raouf Boucekkine Author-X-Name-First: Raouf Author-X-Name-Last: Boucekkine Author-Name: Bity Diene Author-X-Name-First: Bity Author-X-Name-Last: Diene Author-Name: Theophile Azomahou Author-X-Name-First: Theophile Author-X-Name-Last: Azomahou Title: Growth Economics of Epidemics: A Review of the Theory Abstract: This survey of economic growth theory applied to epidemiology highlights that Blanchard-Yaari structures involving a Lucas human capital accumulation are appropriate to study an AIDS-like crisis. Physical capital accumulation, schooling, health expenditures and supply effects are put together within a Blanchard two-sector economy to capture life-cycle effects of AIDS-like epidemics. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: AIDS, epidemics, growth theory, health, human capital, life expectancy, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792410 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792410 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:1-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Giorgio Fabbri Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio Author-X-Name-Last: Fabbri Title: Viscosity Solutions to Delay Differential Equations in Demo-Economy Abstract: Economic and demographic models governed by linear delay differential equations are expressed as optimal control problems in infinite dimensions. A general objective function is considered and the concavity of the Hamiltonian is not required. The value function is a viscosity solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and a verification theorem is proved. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 27-54 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: delay differential equation, vintage models, viscosity solutions, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792444 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792444 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:27-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fima Klebaner Author-X-Name-First: Fima Author-X-Name-Last: Klebaner Author-Name: Robert Liptser Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Liptser Title: Large Deviations Analysis of Extinction in Branching Models Abstract: Cramer's classical theorem is applied to obtain large deviations in branching processes. This is a new avenue for analysis of models in discrete and continuous time. For the Galton-Watson process a new formula for the rate function in terms of the Legendre transform of its offspring distribution is derived. Further analysis of the approximate path to extinction produces a new interesting formula. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 55-69 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: Cramer's theorem, extinction, Galton-Watson process, large deviations, Legendre transform, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792477 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792477 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:55-69 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO Author-X-Name-First: NATALI Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO Author-X-Name-First: YURI Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 71-72 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010134 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010134 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:71-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JANET DYSON Author-X-Name-First: JANET Author-X-Name-Last: DYSON Author-Name: ROSANNA VILLELLA-BRESSAN Author-X-Name-First: ROSANNA Author-X-Name-Last: VILLELLA-BRESSAN Author-Name: GLENN WEBB Author-X-Name-First: GLENN Author-X-Name-Last: WEBB Title: An Age and Spatially Structured Model of Tumor Invasion with Haptotaxis II Abstract: An analysis of a model of tumor growth into surrounding tissue is continued from an earlier treatment, in which the global existence of unique solutions to the model was established. The model consists of a system of nonlinear partial differential equations for the population densities of tumor cells, extracellular matrix macromolecules, oxygen concentration, and extracellular matrix degradative enzyme concentration. The spatial growth of the tumor involves the directed movement of tumor cells toward the extracellular matrix through haptotaxis. Cell age is used to track progression of cells through the cell cycle. Regularity, positivity, and global bounds of the solutions of the model are proved. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-95 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: analytic semigroup, cell proliferation, degradation enzyme, diffusion, extracellular matrix, fractional power, haptotaxis, tumor cells, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010159 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010159 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:73-95 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO Author-X-Name-First: NATALI Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO Author-X-Name-First: YURI Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO Title: Can Technological Change Sustain Retirement in an Aging Population? Abstract: A model of the governmental control of age at retirement uses population age structures, productivity, employment, and money income. The sustainability criterion is a sufficient level of individual money income for all ages. The decision variables are the variable age at retirement and the intensity of technological change. The model is calibrated on real data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1950 and 2005 and uses official U.S. population projections for 2006-2050. The main result is that the extrapolation of current U.S. technological trends can compensate negative demographic trends in the United States without increasing the age at retirement. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 96-113 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: age at retirement, age-structured population, demographic trends, sustainable development, technological change, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010167 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010167 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:96-113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: LAURA-IULIA ANITA Author-X-Name-First: LAURA-IULIA Author-X-Name-Last: ANITA Author-Name: SEBASTIAN ANITA Author-X-Name-First: SEBASTIAN Author-X-Name-Last: ANITA Title: Asymptotic Behavior of the Solutions to Semi-linear Age-dependent Population Dynamics with Diffusion and Periodic Vital Rates Abstract: Ergodicity for a nonlinear age-dependent population model with diffusion and T-periodic vital rates is investigated. The existence of at most one non trivial T-periodic and nonnegative separable solution is proved. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 114-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: age-structured population dynamics with diffusion, asymptotic behavior, ergodicity, logistic term, periodic vital rates, separable models, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010175 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010175 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:114-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOBUYUKI KATO Author-X-Name-First: NOBUYUKI Author-X-Name-Last: KATO Title: Maximum Principle for Optimal Harvesting in Linear Size-Structured Population Abstract: An optimal harvesting problem for linear size-structured population dynamics is considered. A maximum principle is shown and sufficient conditions for the optimal control to be bang-bang are given. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-136 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: bang-bang control, maximum principle, optimal harvesting, size-structured population, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010241 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010241 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:123-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: KENNETH MANTON Author-X-Name-First: KENNETH Author-X-Name-Last: MANTON Author-Name: IGOR AKUSHEVICH Author-X-Name-First: IGOR Author-X-Name-Last: AKUSHEVICH Author-Name: ALEXANDER KULMINSKI Author-X-Name-First: ALEXANDER Author-X-Name-Last: KULMINSKI Title: Human Mortality at Extreme Ages: Data from the NLTCS and Linked Medicare Records Abstract: An analysis using the 1982-1999 National Long-term Care Survey (NLTCS) linked to Medicare vital statistics data 1982-2003 focused on deaths at ages 85 + where deviations from the Gompertz mortality function are often observed. To model the complex mortality patterns observed at late age, standard mortality functions were generalized with i) a location parameter, ii) a fixed heterogeneity distribution, and iii) parameters expressing heterogeneity in the individuals' rate of aging. The data are consistent with not only an upper bound to mortality rates but also declines in the yearly hazard rates at ages 100 + . To determine if these patterns could be due to errors in age reporting, effects of plausible age misreporting patterns were simulated. Biases due to age misreporting at ages 95 to 115 did not materially change this pattern. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 137-159 Issue: 3 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: demographic heterogeneity, dynamic frailty, Medicare Part B data, mortality plateau, National Long-term Care Survey, senescence, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802221665 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802221665 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:137-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: FABIO MILNER Author-X-Name-First: FABIO Author-X-Name-Last: MILNER Author-Name: RUIJUN ZHAO Author-X-Name-First: RUIJUN Author-X-Name-Last: ZHAO Title: S-I-R Model with Directed Spatial Diffusion Abstract: A S-I-R epidemic model is described in which susceptible individuals move away from foci of infection, and all individuals move away from overcrowded regions. It consists of hyperbolic partial differential equations, the sum of these equations being parabolic. Positivity and regularity of solutions are discussed and finite time blow-up of some solutions is illustrated through numerical simulations. A numerical test of the finite time blow-up of solutions is proposed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 160-181 Issue: 3 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: directed spatial diffusion, finite time blow-up, S-I-R, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802221889 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802221889 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:160-181 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANDREI ROGERS Author-X-Name-First: ANDREI Author-X-Name-Last: ROGERS Author-Name: BRYAN JONES Author-X-Name-First: BRYAN Author-X-Name-Last: JONES Title: Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States Abstract: Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau plans to drop its long-form questionnaire and to replace it with the American Community Survey (ACS). The resulting absence of the larger sample provided by the census count will complicate the measurement and analysis of internal migration flows. In addition, the strategy of averaging accumulated samples over time will mix changing migration patterns. The migration question will refer to a one-year time interval instead of the five-year interval used in the censuses between 1960 and 2000, complicating historical comparisons and the production of multiregional projections based on five-year age groups. Consequently, students of territorial mobility increasingly will find it necessary to complement or augment possibly inadequate data collected on migration with estimates obtained by means of “indirect estimation.” A method is presented that allows one to infer age-specific directional migration propensities at the regional level from birthplace-specific infant population data, which approximates infant migration propensities, and from these infers the migration propensities of all other ages. The method is applied to at the nine-division spatial scale. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 182-211 Issue: 3 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: indirect estimation, migration, United States, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802222283 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802222283 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:182-211 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE Title: Editorial Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 213-213 Issue: 4 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440778 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440778 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:213-213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: HIPPOLYTE D'ALBIS Author-X-Name-First: HIPPOLYTE Author-X-Name-Last: D'ALBIS Author-Name: EMMANUELLE AUGERAUD-VERON Author-X-Name-First: EMMANUELLE Author-X-Name-Last: AUGERAUD-VERON Title: Endogenous Retirement and Monetary Cycles Abstract: In a model of overlapping generations with a continuum of finitely lived individuals, the aggregate price dynamics is characterized by a functional differential equation of mixed type. Delays and advances are exogenous when age at retirement is mandatory; they become state-dependent when individuals are allowed to choose their age at retirement. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, periodic solutions in the neighborhood of the monetary steady state appearing with a mandatory retirement age vanish with a chosen age. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 214-229 Issue: 4 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: differential equations with state-dependent delays and advances, endogenous fluctuations, Hopf bifurcation, overlapping generations models, retirement, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440786 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440786 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:214-229 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO Author-X-Name-First: NATALI Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO Author-X-Name-First: YURI Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO Title: From Linear to Nonlinear Utility in Vintage Capital Models Abstract: Optimization problems with nonlinear utility and endogenous capital lifetime are investigated in one- and two-sector modifications of the Solow vintage capital model. Both models have the same balanced growth path in the case of exponential technological change and labour. Turnpike theorems in normal form are proved for the optimal capital lifetime in both models. The differences between the cases of the linear and nonlinear utility are highlighted. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 230-248 Issue: 4 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: balanced growth path, capital lifetime, nonlinear utility, optimization, turnpike theorems, vintage capital models, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440794 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440794 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:230-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: OMAR LICANDRO Author-X-Name-First: OMAR Author-X-Name-Last: LICANDRO Author-Name: LUIS PUCH Author-X-Name-First: LUIS Author-X-Name-Last: PUCH Author-Name: ANTONIO SAMPAYO Author-X-Name-First: ANTONIO Author-X-Name-Last: SAMPAYO Title: A Vintage Model of Trade in Secondhand Markets and the Lifetime of Durable Goods Abstract: How is the replacement of durable goods affected by the existence of a secondhand market? To answer this question, a vintage model of durable goods replacement is specified where efficient trade in used goods arises by assuming the existence of two types of consumers differentiated by income. The resulting steady state optimal replacement decision and secondhand market price are characterized, stressing the influence of economic depreciation. Compared to autarky, the consideration of an efficient secondhand market between high and low income people modifies the age profile of prices, increasing and decreasing for durable goods owned by high and low income people, respectively. Moreover, at the age at which used durable goods are traded, not only ask and bid prices are equal but also their age derivatives. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 249-266 Issue: 4 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: economic obsolescence, heterogeneous consumers, optimal consumption, replacement, secondhand markets, vintage capital, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440828 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440828 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:249-266 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: GIORGIO FABBRI Author-X-Name-First: GIORGIO Author-X-Name-Last: FABBRI Author-Name: SILVIA FAGGIAN Author-X-Name-First: SILVIA Author-X-Name-Last: FAGGIAN Author-Name: FAUSTO GOZZI Author-X-Name-First: FAUSTO Author-X-Name-Last: GOZZI Title: On Dynamic Programming in Economic Models Governed by DDEs Abstract: A family of optimal control problems for economic models, where state variables are driven by delay differential equations (DDEs) and subject to constraints, is treated by Bellman's dynamic programming in infinite dimensional spaces. An existence theorem is provided for the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation: the value function of the control problem solves the HJB equation in a suitable sense (although such value function cannot be computed explicitly). An AK model with vintage capital and an advertising model with delay effect are taken as examples. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 267-290 Issue: 4 Volume: 15 Year: 2008 Keywords: delay differential equations, dynamic programming, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440836 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440836 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:267-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE Title: Overlapping-Generations Models Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619462 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619462 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: DAVID CROIX Author-X-Name-First: DAVID Author-X-Name-Last: CROIX Author-Name: ALESSANDRO SOMMACAL Author-X-Name-First: ALESSANDRO Author-X-Name-Last: SOMMACAL Title: A Theory of Medical Effectiveness, Differential Mortality, Income Inequality and Growth for Pre-Industrial England Abstract: The interactions between mortality reductions and income growth are studied, with a special attention at their relationship prior to the Industrial Revolution, when income per head was stagnant. The choice of individual medical spending is modelled, giving a rationale for individual health expenditures even when medicine is not effective in postponing death. The rise of effective medicine is then explained by a learning process function of expenditure on health. The rise in effective medicine is linked to the economic growth of the eighteenth century through life expectancy increases which foster capital accumulation. The rise of effective medicine has also had an effect on the relationship between growth and inequality and on the intergenerational persistence of differences in income. These channels are operative through differential mortality induced by medical effectiveness that turns out to determine a differential in the propensity to save among income groups. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 2-35 Issue: 1 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: differential mortality, health expenditure, life expectancy, propensity to save, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619538 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619538 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:2-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: PHILIPPE MICHEL Author-X-Name-First: PHILIPPE Author-X-Name-Last: MICHEL Author-Name: BERTRAND WIGNIOLLE Author-X-Name-First: BERTRAND Author-X-Name-Last: WIGNIOLLE Title: Pareto-Efficiency and Endogenous Fertility: A Simple Model Abstract: Pareto-efficiency of the competitive equilibrium is studied for a simple economy with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility. For CES utility and production functions, the properties of the economy are closely related to the two elasticities of substitution. The competitive equilibrium exists and is unique if the sum of the two elasticities is not less than one. For certain parameters, the equilibrium is both in under-accumulation and inefficient. When the sum of the two elasticities is greater than two, an equilibrium converging in under-accumulation is Pareto-efficient. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 36-59 Issue: 1 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: endogenous fertility, Pareto-efficiency, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619587 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619587 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:36-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: THIERRY BRECHET Author-X-Name-First: THIERRY Author-X-Name-Last: BRECHET Author-Name: STEPHANE LAMBRECHT Author-X-Name-First: STEPHANE Author-X-Name-Last: LAMBRECHT Title: Family Altruism with Renewable Resource and Population Growth Abstract: In an overlapping-generations model with non-constant population growth, households own a natural renewable resource and have a family-altruism resource bequest motive. The natural resource can be either extracted and sold to firms, or bequeathed to children to increase their adult disposable income. Numerical applications show how family altruism interplays with population growth to shape the whole economy. The role of altruism in the case of two negative demographic shocks shows that the pressure on the natural resource is not necessarily reduced when population size is lower. Transmission mechanisms between generations and general equilibrium effects can yield unexpected outcomes. In particular, family altruism can lead either to preserve or to waste the resource. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 60-78 Issue: 1 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: overlapping generations, population growth, renewable resource, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619645 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619645 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:60-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JEAN-PIERRE LAFFARGUE Author-X-Name-First: JEAN-PIERRE Author-X-Name-Last: LAFFARGUE Title: Intergenerational Transfers and the Stability of Public Debt with Short-Lived Governments Abstract: Time consistent policies and reforms of intergenerational transfers are analyzed in an overlapping generation model. Governments have preferences, which give much weight to the living generations, and they cannot commit themselves to future taxes and transfers, which will be decided by future governments with different objectives. The economy follows one of two equilibrium paths with perfect foresight. On one path, governments finance the costs of their transfers to the living by increasing public debt recklessly. Consumers pay more and more taxes to finance the cost of this debt, and the successive generations will enter a process of impoverishment. On the other path, in spite of their preference bias, governments borrow less and put the economy on a path of egalitarian consumption flows for the successive generations, with a constant ratio of public debt to national income. The mechanisms, which put an economy on one or the other equilibrium paths, are unconnected to the fundamentals of the model. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 79-104 Issue: 1 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: intergenerational transfers, Markov perfect equilibrium, overlapping-generations model, time consistent policies, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619686 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619686 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:79-104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: GEBRENEGUS GHILAGABER Author-X-Name-First: GEBRENEGUS Author-X-Name-Last: GHILAGABER Author-Name: JOHAN KOSKINEN Author-X-Name-First: JOHAN Author-X-Name-Last: KOSKINEN Title: Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Analyzing Retrospective Data Abstract: In retrospective surveys, records on important variables such as the respondent's educational level and social class refer to what is achieved by the date of the survey. Such variables are then used as covariates in investigations of behavior such as marriage and divorce in life segments that have occurred before the survey. To what extent can any change in the behavior be attributed to the misclassification of respondents across the various levels of the anticipatory variable? To what extent do they reflect real differences in the behavior across the levels? The connection is obtained by a Bayesian adjustment, by specifying a continuous-time Markov model for the incompletely observed time-varying anticipatory covariates, and by implementing standard Bayesian data augmentation techniques. The issues are illustrated by estimating effects of educational level on risks of divorce in a multiplicative piecewise-constant hazard model. Results show that ignoring the time-inconsistency of anticipatory variables may seriously plague the analyses because the relative risks across the anticipatory educational level are overestimated. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 105-130 Issue: 2 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: anticipatory analysis, Bayesian analysis, divorce, education, event-history analysis, MCMC, retrospective surveys, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790171 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790171 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:105-130 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARIANNE JONKER Author-X-Name-First: MARIANNE Author-X-Name-Last: JONKER Title: Estimation of the Life Expectancy of Tenants in the Middle Ages Abstract: In England in the Middle Ages, inheritance data were recorded of tenants who owned land from the Crown. Male adult mortality is estimated from these data. A tenant was allowed to sell his land. Only if he still owned land at death, his age at death was observed; so death was right censored by sell of all the land. The censoring times are not observed because sell of land was never recorded. This makes the estimation problem nonstandard. The age at death is left truncated, because a future tenant had to survive his testator to inherit the title “tenant” and the land and to appear in the dataset. Life span distribution and life expectancy are estimated before and during the outbreak of the Black Death, which started in 1348. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 131-152 Issue: 2 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: adult mortality, left-truncation, maximum likelihood estimators, Middle Ages, right-censoring, survival analysis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790387 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790387 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:131-152 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANNA ZAJACOVA Author-X-Name-First: ANNA Author-X-Name-Last: ZAJACOVA Author-Name: NOREEN GOLDMAN Author-X-Name-First: NOREEN Author-X-Name-Last: GOLDMAN Author-Name: GERMAN RODRIGUEZ Author-X-Name-First: GERMAN Author-X-Name-Last: RODRIGUEZ Title: Unobserved Heterogeneity Can Confound the Effect of Education on Mortality Abstract: Two opposing hypotheses were proposed to explain the life course pattern in the effect of education on mortality: “cumulative advantage,” where the education effect becomes stronger with age, and “age-as-leveler,” where the effect becomes weaker in old age. Most empirical studies bring evidence for the latter hypothesis, but the observed convergence of mortality patterns could be an artifact of selective mortality due to unobserved heterogeneity. A simulation shows that unobserved heterogeneity can bias the estimated effect of education downward so that the cohort-average effect of education decreases in old age regardless of the shape of the underlying subject-specific trajectory. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 153-173 Issue: 2 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: age-as-leveler, cumulative advantage, education, heterogeneity, life course, mortality, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790528 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790528 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:153-173 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: PETER JAGERS Author-X-Name-First: PETER Author-X-Name-Last: JAGERS Title: Extinction Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 175-176 Issue: 3 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034595 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034595 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:175-176 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: PETER JAGERS Author-X-Name-First: PETER Author-X-Name-Last: JAGERS Author-Name: KARIN HARDING Author-X-Name-First: KARIN Author-X-Name-Last: HARDING Title: Viability of Small Populations Experiencing Recurring Catastrophes Abstract: Some small populations are characterized by periods of exponential growth interrupted by sudden drops. These drops can be linked to the population size itself, for example, through overexploitation of local resources. The long-term population extinction risk and the time to extinction for such a repeatedly collapsing population are estimated from general branching processes. The latter allows realistic modeling of lifespan distributions and reproduction patterns, litter (or brood or clutch) sizes as long as individuals reproduce freely and density effects are absent. As the population grows, the carrying capacity of the habitat increasingly matters. This is modeled as a drop after reaching a ceiling. The probability of recovery is then determined by the population size after the drop and by the risk of extinction of branching processes. The reproductive behavior of individuals during the periods free of density effects determines the intrinsic rate of increase of populations close to the carrying capacity. The details of life history which produce demographic stochasticity remain important in systems with density effects. Finally, the time to extinction of a single system with a high carrying capacity is compared to that of a population distributed over several small patches. For systems not allowing migration, survival is favored by a single large habitat rather than by several small habitats. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 177-198 Issue: 3 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: branching processes, carrying capacity, density dependent catastrophes, survival time, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034694 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034694 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:177-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: BENJAMIN CAIRNS Author-X-Name-First: BENJAMIN Author-X-Name-Last: CAIRNS Title: Evaluating the Expected Time to Population Extinction with Semi-Stochastic Models Abstract: “Semi-stochastic” or “piecewise-deterministic” Markov processes generalize continuous-time Markov chains, allowing for deterministic flow between Markovian jumps. They have been employed as models for the effect of environmental catastrophes on biological populations, for the progress of infectious diseases within and between hosts, and for the management of fisheries. One application is to solve first-exit time problems, which include calculations of the expected time or of the expected value from the present to extinction of processes with state-dependent rewards or costs. A simple and robust numerical method gives the solution of first-exit time problems for a wide range of semi-stochastic processes. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 199-220 Issue: 3 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: extinction, first-exit time, piecewise-deterministic, population process, semi-stochastic, state-dependent, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034843 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034843 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:199-220 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SERGEY KLOKOV Author-X-Name-First: SERGEY Author-X-Name-Last: KLOKOV Title: Upper Estimates of the Mean Extinction Time of a Population with a Constant Carrying Capacity Abstract: In a population of individuals with an identical type and nonoverlapping generations, the number of offspring has a Poisson distribution depending on the carrying capacity K and the total population size. Upper estimates of the mean extinction time Eτ are established and essentially have the form Eτ ≤CecK with some constants C > 0 and c ≈ 0.707. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 221-230 Issue: 3 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: carrying capacity, extinction, Poisson distribution, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903035071 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903035071 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:221-230 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ROBERT SCHOEN Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT Author-X-Name-Last: SCHOEN Author-Name: CLAUDIA NAU Author-X-Name-First: CLAUDIA Author-X-Name-Last: NAU Title: Intrinsically Dynamic Multistate Models Abstract: Multistate life table models, which follow persons through more than one living state, have found increasing use in demographic analyses. Multistate stable populations, however, are infrequently used because the constant rate assumption is quite strong and such populations can take centuries to approach stability. Dynamic models, that is models where the rates can change over time, are examined to derive a new solution for the size and composition of a multistate population in terms of the sequence of underlying population projection matrices (PPMs). Constraints on the subordinate eigenvalues and the subordinate eigenvectors of the time-varying PPMs produce a model population that grows according to the dominant eigenvalues of each time-specific PPM and has a state composition that depends only on the most recent PPM. The two living state model is examined in detail, relationships between the PPM elements and the size and composition of the model are explored, and two illustrative applications of the model are presented. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 231-247 Issue: 4 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: atomic matrices, dynamic models, eigenstructure, intrinsic growth, multistate population models, population projection matrices, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251496 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251496 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:231-247 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: R. B. CAMPBELL Author-X-Name-First: R. B. Author-X-Name-Last: CAMPBELL Title: Time Since Common Pedigree Ancestors with Two Progeny per Individual Abstract: Constraining individuals to two progeny (versus Poisson distribution) increases the time since a pedigree (nongenetic) common ancestor, but the time still increases logarithmically in the population size. This is confirmed by simulations for discrete generations and rigorously for expected time with a modification of the Moran model. Selfing increases the expected time since a common ancestor with both the Poisson progeny distribution and two progeny per individual. As selfing approaches one, the time since a common ancestor asymptotically approaches infinity with two progeny per individual, but only twice the population size with the Poisson progeny distribution. Regular systems of inbreeding with two progeny per individual can either increase or decrease the time since a common ancestor as contrasted with random mating with two progeny per individual. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 248-265 Issue: 4 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: coalescent, fixation time, pedigree, population genetics, progeny distribution, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251520 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251520 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:248-265 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARC ARTZROUNI Author-X-Name-First: MARC Author-X-Name-Last: ARTZROUNI Title: Transmission Probabilities and Reproduction Numbers for Sexually Transmitted Infections with Variable Infectivity: Application to the Spread of HIV Between Low- and High-Activity Populations Abstract: Probabilities of transmission and numbers of secondary cases are given for an infection which is transmitted sexually by individuals engaged in multiple partnerships with specified durations and timings. The results applied to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) hinge on a function which captures the dependence of the per coital act probability of transmission on the time since disease onset and on the duration of infection at death. Reproduction numbers are derived in a heterogeneous population consisting of low- and high-activity men and women. An expression for the basic reproduction number R0 of this system sheds light on the role of concurrency, on the timing of the partnerships, and on bridging effects. A high-activity group can cause a significant epidemic outbreak no matter how small the bridging effect, as long as it is not 0. Only if the bridging effect is eliminated altogether can the growth factor in the low-activity group be reduced independently of what happens in the high-activity group. The role of the relationship between client and sex worker and the role of bridging populations in sub-Saharan Africa are assessed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 266-287 Issue: 4 Volume: 16 Year: 2009 Keywords: basic reproduction number, heterogeneous populations, HIV, transmission probability, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251538 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251538 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:266-287 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: GILBERTO GONZALEZ-PARRA Author-X-Name-First: GILBERTO Author-X-Name-Last: GONZALEZ-PARRA Author-Name: LUCAS JODAR Author-X-Name-First: LUCAS Author-X-Name-Last: JODAR Author-Name: FRANCISCO SANTONJA Author-X-Name-First: FRANCISCO Author-X-Name-Last: SANTONJA Author-Name: RAFAEL VILLANUEVA Author-X-Name-First: RAFAEL Author-X-Name-Last: VILLANUEVA Title: An Age-Structured Model for Childhood Obesity Abstract: An age-structured model for childhood obesity at population level is fitted to empirical data in order to predict the proportion of overweighted and obese children in the 6-8 and 9-12 year old classes in the region of Valencia, Spain. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-11 Issue: 1 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: age-structured population, childhood disease, obesity epidemic, X-DOI: 10.1080/07481180903467218 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07481180903467218 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:1-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: GESHAM MAGOMBEDZE Author-X-Name-First: GESHAM Author-X-Name-Last: MAGOMBEDZE Author-Name: WINSTON GARIRA Author-X-Name-First: WINSTON Author-X-Name-Last: GARIRA Author-Name: EDDIE MWENJE Author-X-Name-First: EDDIE Author-X-Name-Last: MWENJE Title: Modeling the TB/HIV-1 Co-Infection and the Effects of Its Treatment Abstract: Modeling the interaction of Tuberculosis (TB) and AIDS (HIV) drugs in the treatment of the TB/HIV co-infection shows that the treatment of Mtb (Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and AIDS improves. The administration of HIV drugs without TB drugs during co-infection favors the treatment of HIV, but the patient will eventually die of the Mtb opportunistic infection. Reducing the interaction of TB and HIV drugs and increasing the performance (efficiency of inhibition) of Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (RTIs) in CD4+ T cells improves the treatment of HIV and leads to the preferential replication of HIV particles in macrophages. The simultaneous administration of TB and HIV drugs is to be recommended for it prevents patients from dying of the Mtb opportunistic infection. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 12-64 Issue: 1 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: AIDS, co-infection, highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART), Mycobacterium tuberculosis, TB chemotherapy, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903467241 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903467241 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:12-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOEL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: Book Review of Cancer Mortality and Morbidity Patterns in the U.S. Population by Kenneth G. Manton, Igor Akushevich, and Julia Kravchenko Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 65-66 Issue: 1 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903467258 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903467258 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:65-66 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: FABIO MILNER Author-X-Name-First: FABIO Author-X-Name-Last: MILNER Title: Disease Control Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 67-68 Issue: 2 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689403 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689403 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:67-68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARCOS AMAKU Author-X-Name-First: MARCOS Author-X-Name-Last: AMAKU Author-Name: RICARDO DIAS Author-X-Name-First: RICARDO Author-X-Name-Last: DIAS Author-Name: FERNANDO FERREIRA Author-X-Name-First: FERNANDO Author-X-Name-Last: FERREIRA Title: Dynamics and Control of Stray Dog Populations Abstract: The population dynamics of stray dogs is simulated to assess the effects of sterilization and euthanasia. From simulations representing less than 5 years, sterilization is less efficient than euthanasia to reduce the stray dog population, considering similar rates, but the total number of sterilized dogs is less than the total number of euthanized dogs per km2 per year. Over 20 years, both strategies have similar efficiency. Beyond a certain rate of dog abandonment, both strategies are inefficient. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 69-78 Issue: 2 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: control, dynamics, euthanasia, sterilization, stray dog population, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689452 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689452 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:69-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: HENRIQUE GAGLIARDI Author-X-Name-First: HENRIQUE Author-X-Name-Last: GAGLIARDI Author-Name: DOMINGOS ALVES Author-X-Name-First: DOMINGOS Author-X-Name-Last: ALVES Title: Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata Abstract: The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short- and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 79-90 Issue: 2 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: automata cellular, epidemic spreading, SIR, SIRS, small-world, transmission rules, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689486 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689486 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:79-90 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARCOS AMAKU Author-X-Name-First: MARCOS Author-X-Name-Last: AMAKU Author-Name: RAYMUNDO AZEVEDO Author-X-Name-First: RAYMUNDO Author-X-Name-Last: AZEVEDO Title: Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella Abstract: The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 91-100 Issue: 2 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: incidence, rubella, seroprevalence, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689502 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689502 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:91-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: LUIZ HOTTA Author-X-Name-First: LUIZ Author-X-Name-Last: HOTTA Title: Bayesian Melding Estimation of a Stochastic SEIR Model Abstract: One of the main problems in estimating stochastic SEIR models is that the data are not completely observed. In this case, the estimation is usually done by least squares or by MCMC. The Bayesian melding method is proposed to estimate SEIR models and to evaluate the likelihood in the presence of incomplete data. The method is illustrated by estimating a model for HIV/TB interaction in the population of a prison. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 101-111 Issue: 2 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: Bayesian inference, Bayesian melding, HIV/TB interaction, SEIR model estimation, stochastic epidemic models, stochastic SEIR model, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689528 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689528 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:101-111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANNICK LESNE Author-X-Name-First: ANNICK Author-X-Name-Last: LESNE Title: Cell Population Dynamics in Cancer Progression Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 113-114 Issue: 3 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490993 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490993 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:113-114 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MORITZ GERSTUNG Author-X-Name-First: MORITZ Author-X-Name-Last: GERSTUNG Author-Name: NIKO BEERENWINKEL Author-X-Name-First: NIKO Author-X-Name-Last: BEERENWINKEL Title: Waiting Time Models of Cancer Progression Abstract: Cancer progression is an evolutionary process driven by mutation and selection in a population of tumor cells. In multistage models of cancer progression, each stage is associated with the occurrence of genetic alterations and their fixation in the population. The accumulation of mutations is described using conjunctive Bayesian networks, an exponential family of waiting time models in which the occurrence of mutations is constrained by a partial temporal order. Two opposing limit cases arise if mutations either follow a linear order or occur independently. Exact analytical expressions for the waiting time until a specific number of mutations have accumulated are derived in these limit cases as well as for the general conjunctive Bayesian network. In a stochastic population genetics model that accounts for mutation and selection, waves of clonal expansions sweep through the population at equidistant intervals. An approximate analytical expression for the waiting time is compared to the results obtained with conjunctive Bayesian networks. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 115-135 Issue: 3 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: Bayesian network, cancer, genetic progression, multistage theory, Wright-Fisher process, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490994 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490994 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:115-135 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MICHEL MALO Author-X-Name-First: MICHEL Author-X-Name-Last: MALO Author-Name: AMANDINE CARTIER-MICHAUD Author-X-Name-First: AMANDINE Author-X-Name-Last: CARTIER-MICHAUD Author-Name: ELISABETH FABRE-GUILLEVIN Author-X-Name-First: ELISABETH Author-X-Name-Last: FABRE-GUILLEVIN Author-Name: GUILLAUME HUTZLER Author-X-Name-First: GUILLAUME Author-X-Name-Last: HUTZLER Author-Name: FRANCK DELAPLACE Author-X-Name-First: FRANCK Author-X-Name-Last: DELAPLACE Author-Name: GEORGIA BARLOVATZ-MEIMON Author-X-Name-First: GEORGIA Author-X-Name-Last: BARLOVATZ-MEIMON Author-Name: ANNICK LESNE Author-X-Name-First: ANNICK Author-X-Name-Last: LESNE Title: When a Collective Outcome Triggers a Rare Individual Event: A Mode of Metastatic Process in a Cell Population Abstract: A model of early metastatic process is based on the role of the protein PAI-1, which at high enough extracellular concentration promotes the transition of cancer cells to a state prone to migration. This transition is described at the single cell level as a bi-stable switch associated with a subcritical bifurcation. In a multilevel reaction-diffusion scenario, the micro-environment of the tumor is modified by the proliferating cell population so as to push the concentration of PAI-1 above the bifurcation threshold. The formulation in terms of partial differential equations fails to capture spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Cellular-automata and agent-based simulations of cell populations support the hypothesis that a randomly localized accumulation of PAI-1 can arise and trigger the escape of a few isolated cells. Far away from the primary tumor, these cells experience a reverse transition back to a proliferative state and could generate a secondary tumor. The suggested role of PAI-1 in controlling this metastatic cycle is candidate to explain its role in the progression of cancer. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 136-165 Issue: 3 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: agent-based simulation, cell population, metastastic escape, multilevel model, multistability, reaction-diffusion, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490996 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490996 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:136-165 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: STEFAN HOEHME Author-X-Name-First: STEFAN Author-X-Name-Last: HOEHME Author-Name: DIRK DRASDO Author-X-Name-First: DIRK Author-X-Name-Last: DRASDO Title: Biomechanical and Nutrient Controls in the Growth of Mammalian Cell Populations Abstract: Growth kinetics and morphologies of growing mammalian cell populations are part of the growth dynamics of tumors. A biophysical agent-based simulation model describes a biological cell by a homogeneous elastic adhesive object able to migrate, grow and divide, and die. A comparison of simulation results with experimental data shows that the growth kinetics of growing multicellular spheroids (MCS) over a wide range of nutrient concentrations is explained by a bio-mechanical form of contact inhibition between cells. This inhibition mechanism explains the growth kinetics of the tumor diameter and the cell population size, the size of the necrotic core, the median cell volume, which decreases when the tumor diameter increases, and the spatial distribution of cell volumes in the tumor. The same model is used to predict how cell populations survive in low nutrient concentrations. Spatial patterns are different for changes of the cell phenotype by regulation or mutation. The cells appearing in the simulations decrease cell-cell adhesion, display chemotaxis movement, increase micro-motility and decrease cell cycle time. Each of these have been observed in invasive cancers. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 166-187 Issue: 3 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: agent-based simulation, biochemical constraints, growth dynamics, johnson-kendall-roberts theory, nutrient control, tumor, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.491032 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.491032 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:166-187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: PHU NGUYEN-VAN Author-X-Name-First: PHU Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN-VAN Title: Nonlinearity and Heterogeneity in Sustainable Populations Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 189-190 Issue: 4 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514850 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514850 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:189-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO Author-X-Name-First: NATALI Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO Author-X-Name-First: YURI Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO Title: Age-Structured PDEs in Economics, Ecology, and Demography: Optimal Control and Sustainability Abstract: Optimal control of partial differential equations arises in population ecology, economics, and demography. The consistency of mathematical treatment is demonstrated for the Lotka-McKendrick model and its nonlinear modifications of increasing complexity. The obtained qualitative optimal dynamics show that the models have either the bang-bang structure of optimal controls or follow balanced growth dynamics. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 191-214 Issue: 4 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: age-structured populations, harvesting, medical capital investment, partial differential equations, size-structured populations, vintage capital models, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514851 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514851 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:191-214 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: CUONG LE VAN Author-X-Name-First: CUONG Author-X-Name-Last: LE VAN Author-Name: TU-ANH NGUYEN Author-X-Name-First: TU-ANH Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN Author-Name: MANH-HUNG NGUYEN Author-X-Name-First: MANH-HUNG Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN Author-Name: THAI LUONG Author-X-Name-First: THAI Author-X-Name-Last: LUONG Title: New Technology, Human Capital, and Growth in a Developing Country Abstract: In a developing country with three sectors—consumption goods, new technology, and education—the productivity of the consumption goods depends on new technology and skilled labor used to produce this new technology. In the first stage of economic growth, the country concentrates on the production of consumption goods; in the second, the country must import both physical capital and new technology capital to produce consumption goods and new technology; in the third, the country must import capital and invest in the training and education of highly skilled labor. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 215-241 Issue: 4 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: developing country, human capital, new technology capital, optimal growth model, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514852 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514852 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:215-241 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARC ARTZROUNI Author-X-Name-First: MARC Author-X-Name-Last: ARTZROUNI Author-Name: EVA DEUCHERT Author-X-Name-First: EVA Author-X-Name-Last: DEUCHERT Title: Do Men and Women Have the Same Average Number of Lifetime Partners? Abstract: It is generally thought that for sake of consistency men and women must have the same average number of lifetime partners. However, this is not the case in general. When men have younger partners, women enter sexual relationships more quickly than men and have a higher number of lifetime partners. A male dominant model applied to UK data on the male rate of entry into a sexual relationship and the male partnership formation function shows that in a stationary population (zero growth rate) women have 9.1% more partners than men. In a stable population with an intrinsic growth rate of -2% and a larger but still plausible difference between the ages of partners, women have 24.6% more partners than men. Given that in sex surveys men report more partners than women, the resulting bias in estimated numbers of partners may therefore be larger than previously thought. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 242-256 Issue: 4 Volume: 17 Year: 2010 Keywords: lifetime partners, male dominant model, stable population, stationary population, United Kingdom, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514853 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514853 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:242-256 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SCOTT CARSON Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON Title: Demographic, Residential, and Socioeconomic Effects on the Distribution of the Statures of Whites in the Nineteenth-Century U.S. Abstract: Nineteenth-century U.S. state prison records contain information on European-American stature. The most commonly mentioned reasons for stature variation were diets, disease, and work effort. The statures of whites were positively associated with direct sunlight. Stature and insolation were associated with occupations, and white workers who spent more time outdoors produced more vitamin D and grew taller. The statures of whites also decreased throughout the nineteenth century, and this decrease is observed across the whole stature distribution. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-17 Issue: 1 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: nineteenth-century U.S. statures of whites, quantile regression, solar radiation, vitamin D, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540147 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540147 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:1-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MARK BEBBINGTON Author-X-Name-First: MARK Author-X-Name-Last: BEBBINGTON Author-Name: CHIN-DIEW LAI Author-X-Name-First: CHIN-DIEW Author-X-Name-Last: LAI Author-Name: RIcARDAS ZITIKIS Author-X-Name-First: RIcARDAS Author-X-Name-Last: ZITIKIS Title: Modelling Deceleration in Senescent Mortality Abstract: Mortality deceleration is the observed but yet to be understood phenomenon that the increase in the late-life death rate slows down after a certain species-related advanced age. Various definitions of onsets of mortality deceleration are examined. A new distribution based on the Strehler-Mildvan theory of aging takes on the required shapes. The application is done on mortality data from the 1892 cohort of Swedish women and on Mediterranean fruit flies. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 18-37 Issue: 1 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: biodemography, Gompertz law, mortality deceleration, mortality rate, onset of late-life mortality, senescent mortality, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540173 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540173 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:18-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOEL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: A Review of: “Optimal Control of Age-Structured Populations in Economy, Demography, and the Environment edited by R. Boucekkine, N. Hritonenko, and Y. Yatsenko.” Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 38-42 Issue: 1 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540176 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540176 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:38-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOEL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: A Review of: “Les Chemins de la mobilite: Migrants de Tunisie et marche du travail parisien depuis 1956. [Paths of Mobility: Migrants out of Tunisia and the Parisian Labor Market Since 1956] by A.-S. Bruno.” Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 43-46 Issue: 1 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.553175 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.553175 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:43-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JANE HEFFERNAN Author-X-Name-First: JANE Author-X-Name-Last: HEFFERNAN Title: Mathematical Immunology of Infectious Diseases Abstract: Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 47-54 Issue: 2 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564559 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564559 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:47-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ASHRAFI NIGER Author-X-Name-First: ASHRAFI Author-X-Name-Last: NIGER Author-Name: ABBA GUMEL Author-X-Name-First: ABBA Author-X-Name-Last: GUMEL Title: Immune Response and Imperfect Vaccine in Malaria Dynamics Abstract: The immune response to malaria and the effects of an imperfect vaccine for this disease are modelled incorporating an n stage parasite life cycle, immune cells, and antibodies. A globally asymptotically stable parasite-free equilibrium occurs when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. An imperfect malaria vaccine that reduces the number of merozoites released per bursting infected red blood cell (IRBC) and that boosts immune response can reduce the concentration of IRBCs in vivo. Numerical simulations show that a vaccine efficacy of at least 87% is necessary to eliminate IRBC in vivo. The concentration of IRBCs varies with the capacity of the vaccine to modify the total number of merozoites released per bursting IRBC. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 55-86 Issue: 2 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: immune response, malaria, ordinary differential equations, vaccine, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564560 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564560 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:55-86 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: STANCA CIUPE Author-X-Name-First: STANCA Author-X-Name-Last: CIUPE Author-Name: ANNE CATLLA Author-X-Name-First: ANNE Author-X-Name-Last: CATLLA Author-Name: JONATHAN FORDE Author-X-Name-First: JONATHAN Author-X-Name-Last: FORDE Author-Name: DAVID SCHAEFFER Author-X-Name-First: DAVID Author-X-Name-Last: SCHAEFFER Title: Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Infection: What Causes Viral Clearance? Abstract: The virus Hepatitis B infects liver cells, leading to either acute or chronic liver disease. Immune responses involve both curing and killing of cells. Stability analyses show that viral clearance depends only on the strength of the combined killing and curing, independent of the characteristics of the cured cells. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 87-105 Issue: 2 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: Hepatitis B virus, immune response, stability analysis, viral dynamics, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564563 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564563 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:87-105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SEYED MOGHADAS Author-X-Name-First: SEYED Author-X-Name-Last: MOGHADAS Title: Emergence of Resistance in Influenza With Compensatory Mutations Abstract: Compensatory mutations are evolutionary responses of influenza viruses resulting in the generation of escape mutants from immune recognition or in the emergence of highly transmissible drug resistant viruses. Model simulations show that: (i) resistance is unlikely to develop without compensation for the large fitness cost associated with the initial rise of resistant mutants; and (ii) in the absence of virus-specific immune memory, the beginning of the treatment and the efficacy of drugs in suppressing viral replication are critical measures in the invasion of compensated mutants. However, pre-existing immune responses can prevent the outgrowth of resistance, regardless of treatment regimes. The presence of immune memory may be a key factor in preventing lethal consequences of infection. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 106-121 Issue: 2 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: adaptive immunity, compensatory mutations, drug resistance, influenza, viral dynamics, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564565 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564565 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:106-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: BERNHARD KONRAD Author-X-Name-First: BERNHARD Author-X-Name-Last: KONRAD Author-Name: NAVEEN VAIDYA Author-X-Name-First: NAVEEN Author-X-Name-Last: VAIDYA Author-Name: ROBERT SMITH? Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT Author-X-Name-Last: SMITH? Title: Modelling Mutation to a Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte HIV Vaccine Abstract: Resistance to a postinfection HIV vaccine that stimulates cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) depends on the relationship between the vaccine strength, the fitness cost of the mutant strain, and the rate of mutant escape. If the vaccine is strong enough, both strains of the virus should be controlled by administering the vaccine sufficiently often. However, if escape mutation to the vaccine occurs, then either the wild type or the mutant can outcompete the other strain. Imperfect adherence may result in the persistence of the mutant, while fluctuations in the vaccination time—even if no vaccines are missed—may result in the mutant outcompeting the wild type. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 122-149 Issue: 2 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: adherence, cytotoxic T-lymphocytes, escape mutation, fitness cost, impulsive differential equations, vaccination, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564566 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564566 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:122-149 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: RENAN GOETZ Author-X-Name-First: RENAN Author-X-Name-Last: GOETZ Author-Name: ANGELS XABADIA Author-X-Name-First: ANGELS Author-X-Name-Last: XABADIA Author-Name: ELENA CALVO Author-X-Name-First: ELENA Author-X-Name-Last: CALVO Title: Optimal Forest Management in the Presence of Intraspecific Competition Abstract: The Escalator Boxcar Train method is used to solve the distributed optimal control problems of forest management numerically. It takes into account intraspecific competition for scarce resources such as light, space, and nutrients during reproduction, growth, and mortality. It provides an alternative to gradient projection methods and Markov processes. It is implemented with standard software. The application is on the optimal forest management regime in the presence of intraspecific competition. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 151-171 Issue: 3 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: distributed optimal control, Escalator Boxcar Train, forest management, intraspecific competition, numerical methods, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589761 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.589761 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:151-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ORLA DEMPSEY Author-X-Name-First: ORLA Author-X-Name-Last: DEMPSEY Author-Name: CATHERINE COMISKEY Author-X-Name-First: CATHERINE Author-X-Name-Last: COMISKEY Title: Estimating the Incidence of Hidden, Untreated Opiate Use Abstract: Illegal drug use is a hidden phenomenon, making it extremely difficult to obtain accurate estimates of untreated use. Yet it is this very estimate of incidence that is required by policy makers and service providers who are responsible for allocating increasingly scarce resources in times of worldwide recession. Using Irish data on more than 6,000 cases of clients presenting for first treatment, a Gamma incubation period distribution describing progression to first opiate treatment is fitted. An analytical solution of the back calculation method and a linear Volterra integral equation are used to project back and estimate the hidden, untreated population of opiate users. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 172-188 Issue: 3 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: back calculation, gamma, HIV, incidence, opiates, substance misuse, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589764 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.589764 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:172-188 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JEAN TEWA Author-X-Name-First: JEAN Author-X-Name-Last: TEWA Author-Name: SAMUEL BOWONG Author-X-Name-First: SAMUEL Author-X-Name-Last: BOWONG Author-Name: BOULCHARD MEWOLI Author-X-Name-First: BOULCHARD Author-X-Name-Last: MEWOLI Author-Name: JURGEN KURTHS Author-X-Name-First: JURGEN Author-X-Name-Last: KURTHS Title: Two-Patch Transmission of Tuberculosis Abstract: For a two-patch transmission of tuberculosis (TB), the disease-free equilibrium and the basic reproduction rate R0 are computed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction rate is less than one. The model can have one or more endemic equilibria. The increased progression rate from latent to active TB in one population may play a significant role in the rising prevalence of TB in the other population. The increased migration from the first to the second population increases the prevalence level of TB in the second population and decreases the TB prevalence in the first population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 189-205 Issue: 3 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Keywords: epidemiology, Lyapunov functions, patches, stability, tuberculosis, X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.596757 File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.596757 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:189-205 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANATOLY I. YASHIN Author-X-Name-First: ANATOLY I. Author-X-Name-Last: YASHIN Author-Name: IGOR AKUSHEVICH Author-X-Name-First: IGOR Author-X-Name-Last: AKUSHEVICH Author-Name: KONSTANTIN G. ARBEEV Author-X-Name-First: KONSTANTIN G. Author-X-Name-Last: ARBEEV Author-Name: ALEXANDER KULMINSKI Author-X-Name-First: ALEXANDER Author-X-Name-Last: KULMINSKI Author-Name: SVETLANA UKRAINTSEVA Author-X-Name-First: SVETLANA Author-X-Name-Last: UKRAINTSEVA Title: Joint Analysis of Health Histories, Physiological State, and Survival Abstract: Data on individual health histories, age trajectories of physiological or biological variables, and mortality allow for the study of the joint evolution of health and physiological states and their effects on mortality. Individual health and physiological trajectories are described using a stochastic process with two mutually-dependent continuous and jumping components. The parameters of this process and mortality rate are identified from the data in which the continuous component is measured in discrete times, and transitions of jumping process are observed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 207-233 Issue: 4 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614486 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614486 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:207-233 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: QUINCY THOMAS STEWART Author-X-Name-First: QUINCY THOMAS Author-X-Name-Last: STEWART Title: The Cause-Deleted Index: Estimating Cause of Death Contributions to Mortality Abstract: Causes underlying mortality disparities are often determined by causal decomposition. This method is based on the decomposition of differences in mortality or life expectancy into parameters representing the contribution of underlying causes. It quantifies disparities as differences in mortality rates and does not account for the fact that many underprivileged groups are more likely to die from nearly all causes. Results are driven by the frequency of cause of death. Alternatively, the cause deleted index quantifies the role of underlying causes in mortality disparities as the change in the relative risk of dying that is related to deleting a specific cause. The consistency between the methods in estimating cause of death contributions is analyzed using 2000 U.S. mortality data and simulated mortality profiles. The two methods often produce divergent results because causal decomposition relies on the prevalence of causes of death. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 234-257 Issue: 4 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614496 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614496 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:234-257 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: A Review of Biology's First Law. The Tendency for Diversity and Complexity to Increase in Evolutionary Systems by Daniel W. McShea and Robert N. Brandon Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 258-260 Issue: 4 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614501 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614501 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:258-260 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: VLADIMIR KOSTOV Author-X-Name-First: VLADIMIR Author-X-Name-Last: KOSTOV Title: Book Review Essay: A Remarkable Contribution to the History of the Don Cossacks Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 261-263 Issue: 4 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589765 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.589765 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:261-263 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: VLADIMIR KOSTOV Author-X-Name-First: VLADIMIR Author-X-Name-Last: KOSTOV Title: Book Review Essay: The Fabulous Fate of the Don Cossacks Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 264-265 Issue: 4 Volume: 18 Year: 2011 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589768 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.589768 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:264-265 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE Title: Epidemics From the Economic Theory Viewpoint Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-3 Issue: 1 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640857 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640857 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:1-3 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: STEFANO BOSI Author-X-Name-First: STEFANO Author-X-Name-Last: BOSI Author-Name: THOMAS SEEGMULLER Author-X-Name-First: THOMAS Author-X-Name-Last: SEEGMULLER Title: Mortality Differential and Growth: What do we Learn From the Barro-Becker Model? Abstract: The model of endogenous fertility by Barro and Becker (1989) is augmented by taking into account the heterogeneity of households in terms of capital endowments, mortality, and costs per surviving child. There exists a unique balanced growth path where the population growth rates of all dynasties are equal. An increase in mortality raises the time cost per surviving child, and enhances economic growth, while reducing parity and demographic growth. The mechanism rests on the quantity-quality trade-off of having children, summarized by the adjustment of the average rearing cost of a surviving child. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 27-50 Issue: 1 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640866 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640866 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:27-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JEAN-PIERRE LAFFARGUE Author-X-Name-First: JEAN-PIERRE Author-X-Name-Last: LAFFARGUE Title: Epidemics and Fertility in a Malthusian Economy Abstract: A Malthusian model clarifies the effects of an epidemic on fertility and on the age structure. An HIV/AIDS epidemic leads to a decrease in fertility, a result consistent with the case of sub-Saharan Africa but sensitive to national conditions. The fall of fertility might be limited to one generation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 4-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640863 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640863 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:4-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: DOUGLAS GOLLIN Author-X-Name-First: DOUGLAS Author-X-Name-Last: GOLLIN Author-Name: CHRISTIAN ZIMMERMANN Author-X-Name-First: CHRISTIAN Author-X-Name-Last: ZIMMERMANN Title: Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease Abstract: How will global climate change affect the prevalence of tropical diseases? In general, warmer temperatures will expand the areas in which these diseases are endemic. However, if households can take actions to protect themselves from disease—such as purchasing bednets or insecticidal sprays—then economic factors may greatly mitigate the effects of climate change. These actions are costly, however, and particularly in poor countries, many households face borrowing constraints. A model of disease transmission combining the household's objectives and constraints shows that a temperature increase of 3°C will induce modest changes in disease prevalence and output. These effects can be mitigated by improvements in the efficacy of disease prevention. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 51-62 Issue: 1 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640868 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640868 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:51-62 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MICHAEL NEUGART Author-X-Name-First: MICHAEL Author-X-Name-Last: NEUGART Title: Female Employment and Divorce: Taking Into Account a Social Multiplier Abstract: A model of interactions of marriage and labor markets, taking into account a feedback process from aggregate divorce rates on individuals' decisions, explains why small changes in men's attitudes towards sharing the breadwinner role with their wives may change female labor force participation rates and divorce rates considerably. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 63-72 Issue: 2 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666941 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666941 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:63-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MATTEO CERVELLATI Author-X-Name-First: MATTEO Author-X-Name-Last: CERVELLATI Author-Name: UWE SUNDE Author-X-Name-First: UWE Author-X-Name-Last: SUNDE Author-Name: SIMONA VALMORI Author-X-Name-First: SIMONA Author-X-Name-Last: VALMORI Title: The Distribution of Infectious Diseases and Extrinsic Mortality Across Countries Abstract: Analysis of the spatial distribution and geographical determinants of human infectious agents across countries suggests that the total number of multi-host vector-transmitted diseases provides a useful measure of the mortality environment. Pathogens of this type are difficult to eradicate because they multiply in both humans and non-human hosts and are bound to specific climatological conditions. The count index of multi-host vector-transmitted diseases that are endemic in a country is a good proxy of life expectancy and of the likelihood of epidemics. This count is useful for cross-country empirical comparisons because it is not driven by demographic and economic conditions. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-93 Issue: 2 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666942 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666942 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:73-93 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: THOMAS BAUDIN Author-X-Name-First: THOMAS Author-X-Name-Last: BAUDIN Title: The Optimal Trade-Off Between Quality and Quantity with Unknown Number of Survivors Abstract: In a model of endogenous fertility where individuals know the probability of child survival but not the final number of survivors, parents do not always formulate a precautionary demand for children. For some utility functions, parents have fewer children than what they would have in a situation in which the number of survivors is known earlier. The properties of the optimal economic policy depend on the degree to which the social welfare function takes ignorance into account. If social welfare is evaluated after parents know how many children survived, the parental response to uncertainty is socially inefficient. Individual decisions then should be corrected through tax or transfer on both births and education. This property helps determine the optimal public response to mortality crisis in the presence of educational externalities. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 94-113 Issue: 2 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666943 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666943 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:94-113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ABDERRAHMAN IGGIDR Author-X-Name-First: ABDERRAHMAN Author-X-Name-Last: IGGIDR Author-Name: GAUTHIER SALLET Author-X-Name-First: GAUTHIER Author-X-Name-Last: SALLET Author-Name: BERGE TSANOU Author-X-Name-First: BERGE Author-X-Name-Last: TSANOU Title: Global Stability Analysis of a Metapopulation SIS Epidemic Model Abstract: The conjecture of Arino and van den Driessche (2003) that a SIS type model in a mover-stayer epidemic model is globally asymptotically stable is confirmed analytically. If the basic reproduction number , then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If , then there exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable on the nonnegative orthant minus the stable manifold of the disease-free equilibrium. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 115-129 Issue: 3 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693844 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693844 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:115-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SHANKAR DIHIDAR Author-X-Name-First: SHANKAR Author-X-Name-Last: DIHIDAR Title: Distribution of Closed Birth Intervals in a Heterogeneous Population Abstract: The probability distribution of parity-specific closed birth intervals in a heterogeneous population of women is obtained from Biswas' (1980) concept of gradually decreasing fecundabilities. The distribution of parity-specific last closed birth intervals and its moments of various orders are derived for a heterogeneous female population. Simulations are used to compare with models for a homogeneous female population with constant fecundability. The consideration of heterogeneity allows a better fit for empirical closed birth intervals. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 130-146 Issue: 3 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693847 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693847 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:130-146 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SCOTT ALAN CARSON Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT ALAN Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON Title: Demographic, Residential, and Socioeconomic Effects on the Distribution of Nineteenth-Century White Body Mass Index Values Abstract: Little research exists on the body mass index (BMI) values of nineteenth-century Americans of European descent. Examination of a new body mass index data set and robust statistical analysis yields the following conclusion: between 1860 and 1880, BMIs decreased across the distribution; however, after 1880, BMIs in the highest quantiles increased, while those in lower BMI quantiles continued to decrease. Late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century white BMIs increased at older ages in higher quantiles and decreased in lower quantiles, indicating significant net biological disparity by age. During industrialization, white BMIs were lower in Kentucky, Missouri, and urban Philadelphia. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 147-157 Issue: 3 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693849 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693849 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:147-157 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ALAN P. MATTHEWS Author-X-Name-First: ALAN P. Author-X-Name-Last: MATTHEWS Title: A Comment on Schoen's (1981) Harmonic Mean Marriage Model Abstract: Schoen (1981) proposes a two-sex marriage function based on the harmonic mean of the numbers of men and women at given ages. This is a comment on the argument provided by Schoen, which shows that it does not in fact lead to a marriage function based on the harmonic mean but on the product of the numbers of men and women at given ages. This does not mean that the harmonic mean is not a valid basis for a marriage function, but only that the argument used by Schoen is not a demonstration of its validity. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 158-162 Issue: 3 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.708310 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.708310 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:158-162 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: Editorial Note Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 163-163 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718930 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718930 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:163-163 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: OLLIVIER HYRIEN Author-X-Name-First: OLLIVIER Author-X-Name-Last: HYRIEN Author-Name: NIKOLAY M. YANEV Author-X-Name-First: NIKOLAY M. Author-X-Name-Last: YANEV Title: Asymptotic Behavior of Cell Populations Described by Two-Type Reducible Age-Dependent Branching Processes With Non-Homogeneous Immigration Abstract: Stem and precursor cells play a critical role in tissue development, maintenance, and repair throughout the life. Often, experimental limitations prevent direct observation of the stem cell compartment, thereby posing substantial challenges to the analysis of such cellular systems. Two-type age-dependent branching processes with immigration are proposed to model populations of progenitor cells and their differentiated progenies. Immigration of cells into the pool of progenitor cells is formulated as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The asymptotic behavior of the process is governed by the largest of two Malthusian parameters associated with embedded Bellman-Harris processes. Asymptotic approximations to the expectations of the total cell counts are improved by Markov compensators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 164-176 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718934 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718934 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:164-176 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SHIXIA MA Author-X-Name-First: SHIXIA Author-X-Name-Last: MA Author-Name: MANUEL MOLINA Author-X-Name-First: MANUEL Author-X-Name-Last: MOLINA Author-Name: YONGSHENG XING Author-X-Name-First: YONGSHENG Author-X-Name-Last: XING Title: Two-Sex Branching Populations With Progenitor Couples in a Random Environment Abstract: In a two-sex branching model, progenitor couples are affected by random factors. The probability and the time to extinction are expressed and simulated. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 177-187 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718937 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718937 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:177-187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: IBRAHIM RAHIMOV Author-X-Name-First: IBRAHIM Author-X-Name-Last: RAHIMOV Author-Name: GEORGE P. YANEV Author-X-Name-First: GEORGE P. Author-X-Name-Last: YANEV Title: Variance Estimators in Critical Branching Processes With Non-Homogeneous Immigration Abstract: The asymptotic normality of conditional least squares estimators for the offspring variance in critical branching processes with nonhomogeneous immigration is established, under moment assumptions on both reproduction and immigration. The proofs use martingale techniques and weak convergence results in Skorokhod spaces. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 188-199 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718941 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718941 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:188-199 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: CRISTIAN TOMASETTI Author-X-Name-First: CRISTIAN Author-X-Name-Last: TOMASETTI Title: Stochastic Modelling of Multiple Random Genetic Mutations Under the Cancer Stem Cell Hypothesis Abstract: The probability distribution for the size of each of the various cancer cell subpopulations created by random genetic mutations is expressed in the case of non-exponential growth of cancer and in the case of a heterogeneous tumor cell population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 200-213 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.725379 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.725379 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:200-213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Title: Book Review of The Children of Eve: Population and Well-being in History by L. P. Cain and D. G. Paterson Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 214-216 Issue: 4 Volume: 19 Year: 2012 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718942 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718942 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:214-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SUZANNE S. SINDI Author-X-Name-First: SUZANNE S. Author-X-Name-Last: SINDI Author-Name: PETER OLOFSSON Author-X-Name-First: PETER Author-X-Name-Last: OLOFSSON Title: A Discrete-Time Branching Process Model of Yeast Prion Curing Curves* Abstract: The infectious agent of many neurodegenerative disorders is thought to be aggregates of prion protein, which are transmitted between cells. Recent work in yeast supports this hypothesis but also suggests that only aggregates below a critical size are transmitted efficiently. The total number of transmissible aggregates in a typical cell is a key determinant of strain infectivity. In a discrete-time branching process model of a yeast colony with prions, prion aggregates increase in size according to a Poisson process and only aggregates below a threshold size are transmitted during cell division. The total number of cells with aggregates in a growing population of yeast is expressed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-13 Issue: 1 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748566 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748566 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:1-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ELENA B. YAROVAYA Author-X-Name-First: ELENA B. Author-X-Name-Last: YAROVAYA Title: Branching Random Walks With Several Sources-super-* Abstract: A continuous-time branching random walk on multidimensional lattices with a finite number of branching sources of three types leads to explicit conditions for the exponential growth of the total number of particles. These conditions are expressed in terms of the spectral characteristics of the operator describing the mean number of particles both at an arbitrary point and on the entire lattice. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 14-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748571 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748571 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:14-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANUJ MUBAYI Author-X-Name-First: ANUJ Author-X-Name-Last: MUBAYI Author-Name: PRISCILLA E. GREENWOOD Author-X-Name-First: PRISCILLA E. Author-X-Name-Last: GREENWOOD Title: Contextual Interventions for Controlling Alcohol Drinking Abstract: The dynamics of an alcohol drinking population are subject to environment-specific control programs. The stochastic model is developed that includes populations of light, moderate, and heavy drinkers, interacting in two contrasting risk-level drinking environments. For colleges with serious drinking problems, the times to disappearance of serious drinkers show that environment-dependent control programs have lasting efficacy when they are implemented according to the risk level of the environments and not by simply focusing on heavy drinking. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 27-53 Issue: 1 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748588 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748588 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:27-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MIRANDA I. TEBOH-EWUNGKEM Author-X-Name-First: MIRANDA I. Author-X-Name-Last: TEBOH-EWUNGKEM Title: Special Issue: Malaria Models Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 55-56 Issue: 2 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777234 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777234 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:55-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MIRANDA I. TEBOH-EWUNGKEM Author-X-Name-First: MIRANDA I. Author-X-Name-Last: TEBOH-EWUNGKEM Author-Name: GIDEON A. NGWA Author-X-Name-First: GIDEON A. Author-X-Name-Last: NGWA Author-Name: CALISTUS N. NGONGHALA Author-X-Name-First: CALISTUS N. Author-X-Name-Last: NGONGHALA Title: Models and Proposals for Malaria: A Review Abstract: Mathematical models to study the dynamics of malaria continue to be developed and upgraded on the parasite component, which is the causative agent for malaria; on the human component that serves as a reservoir of infection for the blood feeding female mosquitoes; on the disease transmitting vector, the component mostly responsible for the movement of the parasite agent from one human to another; or on the life cycle of the malaria parasite as a pathogen both within the human and vector populations. The consideration of so-far neglected features can be beneficial for the control of malaria. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 57-81 Issue: 2 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777237 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777237 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:57-81 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: FOLASHADE B. AGUSTO Author-X-Name-First: FOLASHADE B. Author-X-Name-Last: AGUSTO Author-Name: JEAN M. TCHUENCHE Author-X-Name-First: JEAN M. Author-X-Name-Last: TCHUENCHE Title: Control Strategies for the Spread of Malaria in Humans With Variable Attractiveness Abstract: The transmission dynamics of malaria in humans with variable attractiveness is modeled with the possibility of prophylactic measures such as personal protection and treatment. At the disease-free equilibria, the basic reproduction number and a measure for effective disease control are computed. Simulations show that a 10% increase in personal protection leads to a decrease in secondary transmission, and that a 10% increase in the treatment rate leads to a 7% reduction in secondary transmission. Personal protection and effective treatment should be applied together. Personal protection fails with increasing degree of attractiveness. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 82-100 Issue: 2 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777239 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777239 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:82-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ROUMEN ANGUELOV Author-X-Name-First: ROUMEN Author-X-Name-Last: ANGUELOV Author-Name: YVES DUMONT Author-X-Name-First: YVES Author-X-Name-Last: DUMONT Author-Name: JEAN LUBUMA Author-X-Name-First: JEAN Author-X-Name-Last: LUBUMA Author-Name: EUNICE MUREITHI Author-X-Name-First: EUNICE Author-X-Name-Last: MUREITHI Title: Stability Analysis and Dynamics Preserving Nonstandard Finite Difference Schemes for a Malaria Model Abstract: When both human and mosquito populations vary, forward bifurcation occurs if the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than one in the absence of disease-induced death. When the disease-induced death rate is large enough, R 0 = 1 is a subcritical backward bifurcation point. The domain for the study of the dynamics is reduced to a compact and feasible region, where the system admits a specific algebraic decomposition into infective and non-infected humans and mosquitoes. Stability results are extended and the possibility of backward bifurcation is clarified. A dynamically consistent nonstandard finite difference scheme is designed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 101-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777240 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777240 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:101-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: KAJAL DIHIDAR Author-X-Name-First: KAJAL Author-X-Name-Last: DIHIDAR Author-Name: JOYDEEP CHOWDHURY Author-X-Name-First: JOYDEEP Author-X-Name-Last: CHOWDHURY Title: Enhancing a Randomized Response Model to Estimate Population Means to Sensitive Questions Abstract: The population means of variables such as expenditure on alcohol, abortion, amount of dowry are estimated on modifying Gjestvang and Singh (2009) randomized response model. Instead of simple random sampling with replacement scheme, the respondents are allowed to be chosen by any varying probability sampling scheme, which in particular, also includes simple random sampling with replacement scheme. Whatever the sampling design, the modified estimators perform better than the usual estimator. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-136 Issue: 3 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816216 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816216 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:123-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: DALKHAT M. EDIEV Author-X-Name-First: DALKHAT M. Author-X-Name-Last: EDIEV Title: Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias, the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression Abstract: Formal derivations and empirical evidence, in the framework of Fries-Kannisto's hypothesis, show that the indicators of mortality compression based on age-at-death distribution, left-censored at a fixed old age, may be subject to a bias toward showing mortality decompression in the case of a mortality decline. The previously reported increasing variance in ages at death above fixed old ages in developed countries was mainly the effect of a mortality shift, not decompression. When adjusted for this bias, the indicators of variance in ages at death show a compression of period mortality. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 137-154 Issue: 3 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816218 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816218 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:137-154 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MATTHIJS KOOT Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIJS Author-X-Name-Last: KOOT Author-Name: MICHEL MANDJES Author-X-Name-First: MICHEL Author-X-Name-Last: MANDJES Author-Name: GUIDO VAN 'T NOORDENDE Author-X-Name-First: GUIDO Author-X-Name-Last: VAN 'T NOORDENDE Author-Name: CEES DE LAAT Author-X-Name-First: CEES Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAAT Title: A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability Abstract: A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly available demographic data sets. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 155-171 Issue: 3 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816222 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816222 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:155-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: EZIO VENTURINO Author-X-Name-First: EZIO Author-X-Name-Last: VENTURINO Title: Special Issue: Advances in Population Ecology Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 173-174 Issue: 4 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831696 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831696 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:173-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: JOSEP L. GARCIA-DOMINGO Author-X-Name-First: JOSEP L. Author-X-Name-Last: GARCIA-DOMINGO Author-Name: JOAN SALDAÑA Author-X-Name-First: JOAN Author-X-Name-Last: SALDAÑA Title: A Pair-Approximation Model for Spatial Patterns in Tree Populations with Asymmetrical Resource Competition Abstract: A pair-approximation model for the spatial dynamics of a height-structured tree population is defined on a regular lattice where each site can be in 1 of 3 states: empty (gap site), occupied by an immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree. The nonlinearities are associated with resource competition effects of mature trees on immature ones (asymmetric competition) affecting the mortality of the latter but not their growth. The survival--extinction transition of the forest is expressed; the early dynamics of colonization are described in terms of local densities. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared with results from numerical simulations of cellular automata. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 175-191 Issue: 4 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831698 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831698 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:175-191 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NORBERTO ANÍBAL MAIDANA Author-X-Name-First: NORBERTO ANÍBAL Author-X-Name-Last: MAIDANA Author-Name: HYUN MO YANG Author-X-Name-First: HYUN MO Author-X-Name-Last: YANG Title: How Do Bird Migrations Propagate the West Nile virus Abstract: The rapid spread of the West Nile virus from New York City (USA) in 1999 to the West Coast of North America by 2003 is related to several avian species. The propagation of this virus follows the migratory routes of these birds. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 192-207 Issue: 4 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831709 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831709 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:192-207 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: HELENA SOFIA RODRIGUES Author-X-Name-First: HELENA SOFIA Author-X-Name-Last: RODRIGUES Author-Name: M. TERESA T. MONTEIRO Author-X-Name-First: M. TERESA T. Author-X-Name-Last: MONTEIRO Author-Name: DELFIM F. M. TORRES Author-X-Name-First: DELFIM F. M. Author-X-Name-Last: TORRES Title: Dengue in Cape Verde: Vector Control and Vaccination Abstract: In 2009, for the first time in Cape Verde, an outbreak of dengue was reported and more than 20,000 people were infected. Only a few prophylactic measures were taken. The effects of vector control on disease spreading, such as insecticide (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical control, as well as an hypothetical vaccine, are estimated through simulations with the Cape Verde data. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 208-223 Issue: 4 Volume: 20 Year: 2013 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831711 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831711 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:208-223 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malay Ghosh Author-X-Name-First: Malay Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh Author-Name: Tomasz Żądło Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz Author-X-Name-Last: Żądło Title: Special Issue: Survey Sampling Methods Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836334 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836334 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lorenzo Fattorini Author-X-Name-First: Lorenzo Author-X-Name-Last: Fattorini Author-Name: Giulio Ghellini Author-X-Name-First: Giulio Author-X-Name-Last: Ghellini Title: Estimating the Size of Street-Dwelling Populations Using Mark-Resighting Counts Abstract: Mark-resighting constitutes an advanced technology for estimating animal abundance. Joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood, Minta-Mangel and Bowden estimators are usually adopted with mark-resighting data. In presence of any tendency of animals to aggregate into groups, the Bowden estimator is the sole reliable method, providing that marks are quite evenly distributed among groups. In some cetacean surveys, marking disturbances are avoided through natural marking. Natural marking with Bowden criterion is used to estimate the abundance of street-dwelling populations. The marked individuals are persons identified and recorded in the initial part of the survey and recognizable in subsequent occasions. A simulation helps determine the performance of the Bowden estimator under a wide set of situations, taking into account key features of street-dwelling populations. When marked individuals are evenly distributed among groups, the strategy is efficient. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 2-11 Issue: 1 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836336 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836336 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:2-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wojciech Gamrot Author-X-Name-First: Wojciech Author-X-Name-Last: Gamrot Title: Estimators for the Horvitz-Thompson Statistic Based on Some Posterior Distributions Abstract: The knowledge of first-order inclusion probabilities characterizing a sampling scheme is essential in design-based estimation of finite population totals. Sometimes the scheme is so complex that these probabilities cannot be computed exactly. Instead, both inclusion probabilities and corresponding sampling weights are simulated. One empirical Horvitz-Thompson estimator for a population total using simulation-based range-preserving estimates of sampling weights is obtained by applying the restricted maximum likelihood principle directly to each inclusion probability. The assumption of a prior distribution and the assessment of resulting posterior for a weight lead to two other estimators. One of them is the posterior mean estimator of the Horvitz-Thompson statistic. In a simulation involving Polish agricultural census data and a sequential fixed-cost sampling scheme, this estimator has attractive properties also from a frequentist point of view. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 12-29 Issue: 1 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836365 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836365 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:12-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomasz Żądło Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz Author-X-Name-Last: Żądło Title: On the Prediction of the Subpopulation Total Based on Spatially Correlated Longitudinal Data Abstract: In a special case of the general linear mixed model, one random component obeys a spatial autoregressive process and another a temporal autoregressive process. The population and any affiliations to subpopulations may change in time. The empirical best linear unbiased predictor is derived and may be used even if the sample size in the subpopulation is null in the period of interest. The mean squared error and its estimator are expressed. The accuracy of the predictor and the bias of the mean squared error estimator are addressed through simulations. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 30-44 Issue: 1 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836387 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836387 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:30-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Santanu Pramanik Author-X-Name-First: Santanu Author-X-Name-Last: Pramanik Title: Selection of Prior for the Variance Component and Approximations for Posterior Moments in the Fay-Herriot Model Abstract: In the Fay-Herriot model, a prior distribution for the variance component allows posterior moments to be approximated with the Laplace method, avoiding computer intensive Monte Carlo Markov chains. The extremely skewed posterior distribution of the variance component results from the asymmetry of the parameter space with variance parameters constrained to be positive. The prior avoids the extreme skewness of the posterior in contrast to the commonly used uniform prior. With this prior, the mean squared error and coverage in the approximate hierarchical Bayes method are satisfactory when used to estimate small area means. Computation time is shorter than with Monte Carlo Markov chains. The approximations give easy interpretations of Bayesian methods and highlight frequentist properties of the parameters. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 45-64 Issue: 1 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.883879 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.883879 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:45-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ORLA DEMPSEY Author-X-Name-First: ORLA Author-X-Name-Last: DEMPSEY Author-Name: CATHERINE M. COMISKEY Author-X-Name-First: CATHERINE M. Author-X-Name-Last: COMISKEY Title: Estimating the Prevalence of Illegal Drug Use Abstract: A generic globally applicable integral equation allows the estimation of hidden drug use. Formulas for estimating the prevalence of drug use are provided for both the assumed and known latency period. Estimates of prevalence of opiate use in Ireland ranging from 7,955 [5,789, 10,122] to 11,986 [8,792, 15,181] with prevalence rates ranging from 2.7 [2.0, 3.5] per 1,000 to 4.1 [3.0, 5.2] were obtained. The model can be implemented by service providers and planners if numbers of first treatments for drug use and the latency period are known or assumed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 65-77 Issue: 2 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836329 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836329 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:65-77 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SCOTT ALAN CARSON Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT ALAN Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON Author-Name: PAUL E. HODGES Author-X-Name-First: PAUL E. Author-X-Name-Last: HODGES Title: The Relationship Among Body Mass, Wealth, and Inequality Across the BMI Distribution: Evidence From Nineteenth-Century Prison Records Abstract: Nineteenth-century U.S. Black and White body mass indexes (BMIs) were distributed symmetrically; neither wasting nor obesity was common. BMI values were also greater for Blacks than for Whites. During industrialization in the nineteenth century in the United States, there was a negative relationship between BMIs and average state-level wealth and an inverse relationship between BMI and wealth inequality. After controlling for wealth and inequality, rural agricultural farmers had greater BMI values than their urban counterparts in other occupations. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 78-94 Issue: 2 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836328 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836328 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:78-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: HISASHI INABA Author-X-Name-First: HISASHI Author-X-Name-Last: INABA Title: On a Pandemic Threshold Theorem of the Early Kermack-McKendrick Model with Individual Heterogeneity Abstract: A pandemic threshold theorem of the Kermack-McKendrick epidemic system with individual heterogeneity is proved from the definition of R 0 by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz. The early Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model is extended to recognize individual heterogeneity, where the state variable indicates an epidemiological state or genetic, physiological, or behavioral characteristics such as risk of infection. With the basic reproduction number R 0 for the heterogeneous population, the final size equation of the limit epidemic starting from a completely susceptible steady state at t = &minus∞ has a unique positive solution if and only if R 0 > 1. The main result is that the positive solution of the final size equation gives the lower bound of the intensity of any epidemic starting from a host population composed of susceptible and a few infected individuals who spread on a noncompact domain of the trait variable. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 95-111 Issue: 2 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.891905 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.891905 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:95-111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: EZRA GAYAWAN Author-X-Name-First: EZRA Author-X-Name-Last: GAYAWAN Author-Name: SAMSON B. ADEBAYO Author-X-Name-First: SAMSON B. Author-X-Name-Last: ADEBAYO Title: Spatial Pattern and Determinants of Age at Marriage in Nigeria Using a Geo-Additive Survival Model Abstract: Age at first marriage, after controlling for socio-economic and demographic variables, varies across regions and districts. A geo-additive hazard model allows for measuring spatial effects. The nonlinear and baseline effects are modeled by Bayesian penalized splines; spatial components are treated as correlated random effects following a Markov random field. Application is based on data from 1999, 2003, and 2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. Age at first marriage is positively associated with education and urbanization and depends on religion. It presents a north-south divide. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 112-124 Issue: 2 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.892336 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.892336 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:112-124 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ Title: Delay Differential Equations in Bio-Populations Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 125-126 Issue: 3 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804684 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804684 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:125-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA Author-Name: MAREK BODNAR Author-X-Name-First: MAREK Author-X-Name-Last: BODNAR Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ Title: Tractable Model of Malignant Gliomas Immunotherapy with Discrete Time Delays Abstract: The model of an immune system reaction against malignant gliomas proposed by Kronik and co-workers is simplified to the main components of the immune reaction, which are tumor cells and cytotoxic T-lymphocytes. The system has nonlinear terms with three delays, but remains tractable. For realistic parameters, time delays have little influence on the dynamics. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 127-145 Issue: 3 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804690 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804690 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:127-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ Author-Name: JAN POLESZCZUK Author-X-Name-First: JAN Author-X-Name-Last: POLESZCZUK Author-Name: TING LIU Author-X-Name-First: TING Author-X-Name-Last: LIU Title: Logistic Tumor Growth with Delay and Impulsive Treatment Abstract: A logistic equation with delay introduced into net growth describes an initial stage of solid tumor growth. Impulses describe external interference, such as radiotherapy. Examination of different treatment protocols showed that the one with constant dosage is better than with increasing or decreasing dose. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 146-158 Issue: 3 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804688 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804688 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:146-158 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANTONI LEON DAWIDOWICZ Author-X-Name-First: ANTONI LEON Author-X-Name-Last: DAWIDOWICZ Author-Name: ANNA POSKROBKO Author-X-Name-First: ANNA Author-X-Name-Last: POSKROBKO Author-Name: JERZY LESZEK ZALASIŃSKI Author-X-Name-First: JERZY LESZEK Author-X-Name-Last: ZALASIŃSKI Title: A Mathematical Model of the Bioenergetic Processes in Green Plants Abstract: The bioenergetic phenomena occurring in green plants are described by three equations for biomass, ATP level, and the level of inorganic phosphorus. The well-posedness of the problem is proved. Simulations show that the bioenergetic processes are oscillatory with sunlight. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 159-165 Issue: 3 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804686 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804686 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:159-165 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA Author-Name: MAREK BODNAR Author-X-Name-First: MAREK Author-X-Name-Last: BODNAR Title: Logistic Equation with Treatment Function and Discrete Delays Abstract: The logistic equation with a periodic or asymptotically periodic treatment has a delay either in the per head growth rate or in the net growth rate. When the treatment is constant over time, there exists at most one supercritical Hopf bifurcation for some critical value of the delay. We provide conditions that guarantee the global stability of the trivial steady state when the treatment is an asymptotically periodic function. For the single delayed model and asymptotically periodic drug administration, these are necessary and sufficient conditions. For the double delayed model, given conditions are only sufficient. Simulations for a pharmacokinetic treatment with various periods of drug administration show that the double delayed model is more sensitive than the single delayed model on drug dosage and on the starting time of treatment. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 166-183 Issue: 3 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.921492 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.921492 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:166-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: ANDRÉ DE PALMA Author-X-Name-First: ANDRÉ Author-X-Name-Last: DE PALMA Author-Name: NATHALIE PICARD Author-X-Name-First: NATHALIE Author-X-Name-Last: PICARD Author-Name: MATTHIEU DE LAPPARENT Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIEU Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAPPARENT Title: Risky Time Prospects and Travel Demand Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 185-188 Issue: 4 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836413 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836413 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:185-188 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: MATTHIEU DE LAPPARENT Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIEU Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAPPARENT Author-Name: MOSHE BEN-AKIVA Author-X-Name-First: MOSHE Author-X-Name-Last: BEN-AKIVA Title: Risk Aversion in Travel Mode Choice with Rank-Dependent Utility Abstract: Using 2004 stated preference data on travel mode collected in the Z�rich area, different parametric specifications of the rank-dependent utility function in a logit mixture model show that commuters are weakly averse to small-time losses. The results also justify Yaari's dual theory of choice under risk, that the utility function is linear on outcomes but that the perception of corresponding probabilities is biased. For leisure travel, the travelers are risk neutral to small losses of time. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 189-204 Issue: 4 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836415 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836415 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:189-204 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: XUAN LU Author-X-Name-First: XUAN Author-X-Name-Last: LU Author-Name: SONG GAO Author-X-Name-First: SONG Author-X-Name-Last: GAO Author-Name: ERAN BEN-ELIA Author-X-Name-First: ERAN Author-X-Name-Last: BEN-ELIA Author-Name: RYAN POTHERING Author-X-Name-First: RYAN Author-X-Name-Last: POTHERING Title: Travelers' Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior with Real-Time Information in a Congested Risky Network Abstract: Nonrecurring disruptions to traffic systems caused by incidents or adverse conditions can result in uncertain travel times. Real-time information allows travelers to adapt to actual traffic conditions. In a behavior experiment, subjects completed 120 "days" of repeated route choices in a hypothetical, competitive network submitted to random capacity reductions. One scenario provided subjects with real-time information regarding a probable incident and the other did not. A reinforcement learning model with two scale factors, a discounting rate of previous experience and a constant term, is estimated by minimizing the deviation between predicted and observed daily flows. The estimation combines brute force enumeration and a subsequent stochastic approximation method. The prediction over 120 runs has a root mean square error of 1.05 per day per route and a bias of 0.14 per route. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 205-219 Issue: 4 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836418 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836418 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:205-219 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NICOLAS COULOMBEL Author-X-Name-First: NICOLAS Author-X-Name-Last: COULOMBEL Author-Name: ANDRÉ DE PALMA Author-X-Name-First: ANDRÉ Author-X-Name-Last: DE PALMA Title: Variability of Travel Time, Congestion, and the Cost of Travel Abstract: The variability of travel time modifies the rush hour traffic and the cost of commuting. The bottleneck model of road congestion with fixed peak-load demand is augmented of an additive random delay. When individuals have (α-β-Gamma) preferences, there exists a unique Nash equilibrium. The variability of travel time leads to departure rates that are spread more evenly over the rush hour than when travel times are deterministic. This equilibrium mechanism mitigates both congestion and the cost of unreliability. This implies that "single-traveler models," which treat congestion as an exogenous phenomenon, overestimate the value of reliability for the rush hour. The application with the uniform or with the exponential distribution helps appraise the overestimation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 220-242 Issue: 4 Volume: 21 Year: 2014 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836420 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836420 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:220-242 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andr� de Palma Author-X-Name-First: Andr� Author-X-Name-Last: de Palma Author-Name: Nathalie Picard Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie Author-X-Name-Last: Picard Author-Name: Matthieu de Lapparent Author-X-Name-First: Matthieu Author-X-Name-Last: de Lapparent Title: Risk and Uncertainty in Urban and Transport Economics Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-3 Issue: 1 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836424 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836424 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:1-3 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ignacio A. Inoa Author-X-Name-First: Ignacio A. Author-X-Name-Last: Inoa Author-Name: Nathalie Picard Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie Author-X-Name-Last: Picard Author-Name: Andr� de Palma Author-X-Name-First: Andr� Author-X-Name-Last: de Palma Title: Effect of an Accessibility Measure in a Model for Choice of Residential Location, Workplace, and Type of Employment Abstract: A three-level nested logit model for the choice of residential location, workplace, and type of employment is used to assess the effect of an individual-specific measure of accessibility to employments that takes into account the attractiveness of different occupations when the choice of workplace is anticipated in the decision of residential location. The model allows for variation in the preferences for types of employment across individuals and accounts for individual heterogeneity of preferences at each choice level in education, age, gender, and children. Using data from the Île-de-France region, the model shows that the individual-specific accessibility measure is an important determinant of the choice of residential location and its effect differs along the life cycle. The attractiveness of the types of employment is a better predictor of the workplace location than the usual total number of employments. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 4-36 Issue: 1 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925318 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925318 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:4-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wuping Xin Author-X-Name-First: Wuping Author-X-Name-Last: Xin Author-Name: David Levinson Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Levinson Title: Stochastic Congestion and Pricing Model with Endogenous Departure Time Selection and Heterogeneous Travelers Abstract: In a stochastic roadway congestion and pricing model, one scheme (omniscient pricing) relies on the full knowledge of each individual journey cost and of early and late penalties of the traveler. A second scheme (observable pricing) is based on observed queuing delays only. Travelers are characterized by late-acceptance levels. The effects of various late-acceptance levels on congestion patterns with and without pricing are compared through simulations. The omniscient pricing scheme is most effective in suppressing the congestion at peak hours and in distributing travel demands over a longer time horizon. Heterogeneity of travelers reduces congestion when pricing is imposed, and congestion pricing becomes more effective when cost structures are diversified rather than identical. Omniscient pricing better reduces the expected total social cost; however, more travelers improve welfare individually with observable pricing. The benefits of a pricing scheme depend on travelers' cost structures and on the proportion of late-tolerant, late-averse, and late-neutral travelers in the population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 37-52 Issue: 1 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836423 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836423 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:37-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mich�le Cohen Author-X-Name-First: Mich�le Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen Title: Risk Perception, Risk Attitude, and Decision: A Rank-Dependent Analysis Abstract: The classical expected utility model of decision under risk has been criticized from an experimental point of view (Allais' paradox) as well as for its restrictive lack of explanatory power. The Rank-Dependent Expected Utility model answers some of these criticisms. The decision maker is characterized by two functions: a utility function on consequences measuring preferences over sure outcomes and a probability weighting function measuring the subjective weighting of probabilities. The model allows for more diversified types of behavior: it is consistent with the behavior revealed by the Allais paradox; the decision maker could dislike risk (prefer its expectation to any lottery) without necessarily avoiding any increase in risk; diminishing marginal utility may coexist with "weak" risk-seeking attitudes; decision makers with the same utility function may differ in their choices between lotteries when they have different probability weighting functions; furthermore, the same decision maker may have different, context-dependent, subjective beliefs on events. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 53-70 Issue: 1 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836425 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836425 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:53-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Morten Brøns Author-X-Name-First: Morten Author-X-Name-Last: Brøns Author-Name: Mathieu Desroches Author-X-Name-First: Mathieu Author-X-Name-Last: Desroches Author-Name: Martin Krupa Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Krupa Title: Mixed-Mode Oscillations Due to a Singular Hopf Bifurcation in a Forest Pest Model Abstract: In a forest pest model, young trees are distinguished from old trees. The pest feeds on old trees. The pest grows on a fast scale, the young trees on an intermediate scale, and the old trees on a slow scale. A combination of a singular Hopf bifurcation and a "weak return" mechanism, characterized by a small change in one of the variables, determines the features of the mixed-mode oscillations. Period-doubling and saddle-node bifurcations lead to closed families (called isolas) of periodic solutions in a bifurcation corresponding to a singular Hopf bifurcation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 71-79 Issue: 2 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925344 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925344 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:71-79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Olivia Ekert-Jaffé Author-X-Name-First: Olivia Author-X-Name-Last: Ekert-Jaffé Author-Name: Shoshana Grossbard Author-X-Name-First: Shoshana Author-X-Name-Last: Grossbard Title: Time Cost of Children as Parents' Foregone Leisure Abstract: From the 1998-99 French Insee time use survey, the time cost of children is estimated in terms of hours of foregone leisure. The focus on couples with two spouses working full time implies no need to be concerned about substitution between home production and labor supply. The model accounts for selection into full-time employment, endogenous wages, and controls for outside help with home production and child care. The foregone leisure cost per child under the age of 3 is 1.6 hours for each parent. It is about half that size for children aged 3 to 14. Children over age 14 involve no leisure cost to parents. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 80-100 Issue: 2 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836332 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836332 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:80-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Younga Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younga Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: Changes in Precarious Employment Among South Korean Women Abstract: How does continuity of employment affect precariousness of South Korean women over their life cycle? A multilevel discrete-time logit model shows that marriage and the presence of young children do not worsen precariousness, but poor quality of employment and low occupational status confine women to precarious statuses. Escaping from precarious employment comes from higher educational attainment and longer periods of paid employment. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 101-123 Issue: 2 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925354 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925354 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:101-123 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: Editorial: Insights into Two-Sex Population Models Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 125-126 Issue: 3 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049106 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049106 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:125-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zi Sang Author-X-Name-First: Zi Author-X-Name-Last: Sang Author-Name: Zhipeng Qiu Author-X-Name-First: Zhipeng Author-X-Name-Last: Qiu Author-Name: Zhilan Feng Author-X-Name-First: Zhilan Author-X-Name-Last: Feng Author-Name: Yun Zou Author-X-Name-First: Yun Author-X-Name-Last: Zou Title: Sex-Structured Dynamic of Multi-Group Herpes Simplex Virus 2 Abstract: A 3(n + l)-dimensional ordinary differential equation for HSV-2 includes l groups of men and n groups of women with different risks of infection. Global Lyapunov functions based on graph theory and on LaSalle invariance principle show that the model dynamics are completely determined by the basic reproduction number ℛ0. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when ℛ0 ≤ 1; a unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region when ℛ0 > 1. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 127-144 Issue: 3 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925335 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925335 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:127-144 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Xue-Zhi Li Author-X-Name-First: Xue-Zhi Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Sha-Sha Gao Author-X-Name-First: Sha-Sha Author-X-Name-Last: Gao Author-Name: Maia Martcheva Author-X-Name-First: Maia Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva Title: Modeling and Control of Malaria When Mosquitoes Are Used as Vaccinators Abstract: From the idea of turning mosquitoes into vaccinators, a first model of the transmission of malaria based on standard incidence leads to express the basic reproduction number R0(ψ) and the effective reproduction number ℛ(ψ) as a function of the vaccination rate ψ. The disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0(ψ) > 1. A necessary and sufficient condition for backward bifurcation is derived. A unique endemic equilibrium exists if R0(ψ) > 1. A second model, based on mass action incidence, leads to express the basic reproduction number . The disease-free equilibrium is both locally asymptotically stable and globally stable if . A unique endemic equilibrium exists if and is locally asymptotically stable. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 145-171 Issue: 3 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925322 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925322 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:145-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Delphine Picart Author-X-Name-First: Delphine Author-X-Name-Last: Picart Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Author-Name: Denis Thiéry Author-X-Name-First: Denis Author-X-Name-Last: Thiéry Title: Optimal Treatment Schedule in Insect Pest Control in Viticulture Abstract: A model for the control of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana includes two control methods: insecticides and mating disruption. It yields the combination and schedule of application that minimize cost and losses due to the pest. A simulation is presented for an experimental situation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 172-181 Issue: 3 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049107 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049107 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:172-181 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Title: Book Review of Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies in Ethnic Conflict by Paul Morland Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 182-185 Issue: 3 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049109 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049109 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:182-185 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark McGuinness Author-X-Name-First: Mark Author-X-Name-Last: McGuinness Author-Name: Nokuthaba Sibanda Author-X-Name-First: Nokuthaba Author-X-Name-Last: Sibanda Author-Name: Melissa Welsh Author-X-Name-First: Melissa Author-X-Name-Last: Welsh Title: Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever Abstract: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF history. The critical parameter R0 determines whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 187-208 Issue: 4 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925352 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925352 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:187-208 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zhang Zhonghua Author-X-Name-First: Zhang Author-X-Name-Last: Zhonghua Author-Name: Suo Yaohong Author-X-Name-First: Suo Author-X-Name-Last: Yaohong Author-Name: Zhang Juan Author-X-Name-First: Zhang Author-X-Name-Last: Juan Author-Name: Song Xinyu Author-X-Name-First: Song Author-X-Name-Last: Xinyu Title: Stability and Bifurcations in a Model of Bacteria Immunity with Quorum Sensing Abstract: Quorum sensing, a widespread phenomenon in bacteria that is used to coordinate gene expression among local populations, intervenes in the competition between bacteria and the immune system. The domain of attraction of the bacteria-free equilibrium results from a linear matrix inequality optimization with a multivariate polynomial objective under constraints. The Bogdanov-Takens singularity and bifurcation, including a saddle-node bifurcation, a Hopf bifurcation, and a homoclinic bifurcation, are obtained from normal form theory. The normal form of a bifurcation is a simple dynamical system which is equivalent to all systems exhibiting this bifurcation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 209-233 Issue: 4 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.999498 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.999498 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:209-233 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sally Abdelfatah Author-X-Name-First: Sally Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfatah Author-Name: Reda Mazloum Author-X-Name-First: Reda Author-X-Name-Last: Mazloum Title: Efficient Estimation in a Two-Stage Randomized Response Model Abstract: A two-stage randomized response model is devised to circumvent the lack of answers to a sensitive question. Respondents who have not answered the sensitive question in the first stage are requested in the second stage to either answer the sensitive question (second attempt then) or to draw a card indicating "yes" or "no". In the latter case, they are required to report the outcome. This apparently innocent device helps to build a more efficient estimator of the proportion of the population having a given sensitive attribute. The procedure also increases the respondents' cooperation. As other estimators of the proportion of the population having a given sensitive attribute using randomized response models, this estimator can formally take values outside the unit interval, a possibility which should not be allowed. The minimum sample size for which the frequency of estimates outside [0,1] is small enough is obtained by simulation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 234-251 Issue: 4 Volume: 22 Year: 2015 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.953897 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.953897 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:234-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Title: Insights into two-sex population models 2 Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1116309 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1116309 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Piermarco Cannarsa Author-X-Name-First: Piermarco Author-X-Name-Last: Cannarsa Author-Name: Giuseppe Da Prato Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe Author-X-Name-Last: Da Prato Title: Positivity of solutions in a perturbed age-structured model Abstract: For certain age-structured population models, the cone of positive functions is preserved when the dynamics is perturbed by white noise. Solutions can be forced to assume negative values, even when initial conditions are strictly positive. Necessary and sufficient conditions are expressed under which the solutions are nonnegative. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 3-16 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925340 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925340 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:3-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mi-Young Kim Author-X-Name-First: Mi-Young Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Name: Tsendayush Selenge Author-X-Name-First: Tsendayush Author-X-Name-Last: Selenge Title: Discontinuous-continuous Galerkin methods for population diffusion with finite life span Abstract: Discontinuous-continuous Galerkin methods approximate the solution to a population diffusion model with finite life span. The regularity of the solution depends on mortality; it decreases when mortality is high enough. The numerical solution has strong stability and a priori error estimates are obtained away from the region where the solution is not smooth. The error estimates are optimal in order and in regularity. The matrix Eq. (20) from the discretization satisfies the nonstagnation condition for generalized minimal residual method. Several numerical examples are presented. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 17-36 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836428 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836428 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:17-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel Maxin Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Maxin Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Author-Name: Laurentiu Sega Author-X-Name-First: Laurentiu Author-X-Name-Last: Sega Title: Reduced fertility and asymptotics of the logistic model Abstract: This logistic model includes three age groups. Juveniles do not reproduce, and old individuals reproduce at a lower rate. Pairings between individuals of different fertility rates may lead to multiple equilibria and bi-stability: the total population converges to different limits depending on its initial size. The behavior is correlated with transition rates from high to low fertility groups and with the frequency of pairing among the various groups of reproduction level. The proportions of adults at equilibrium are roots of a quartic polynomial, alternating sinks and saddles. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bi-stability are provided for a simplified model. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 37-49 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1117270 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1117270 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:37-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Author-Name: Kai Yang Author-X-Name-First: Kai Author-X-Name-Last: Yang Title: The logistic, age-structured, two-sex population model applied to U.S. demography Abstract: The existence and uniqueness of continuous and classical solutions are established for the logistic, two-sex, age-structured population model, using a fixed point argument for an equivalent system of integral equations. Application to the population of the United States from 1980 to 1990, for which marriage functions are tested. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 50-67 Issue: 1 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.953898 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.953898 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:50-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdessamad Tridane Author-X-Name-First: Abdessamad Author-X-Name-Last: Tridane Title: Population dynamics of Rift Valley fever, sleeping sickness, and vector-borne diseases brought by human migrations Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 69-70 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1154780 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1154780 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:69-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rachelle E. Miron Author-X-Name-First: Rachelle E. Author-X-Name-Last: Miron Author-Name: Gaël A. Giordano Author-X-Name-First: Gaël A. Author-X-Name-Last: Giordano Author-Name: Alison D. Kealey Author-X-Name-First: Alison D. Author-X-Name-Last: Kealey Author-Name: Robert J. Smith? Author-X-Name-First: Robert J. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith? Title: Multiseason transmission for Rift Valley fever in North America Abstract: Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne disease, primarly found in West Africa, that is transmitted to humans and domestic livestock. Its similarities to the West Nile virus suggest that establishment in the developed world may be possible. Rift Valley fever has the potential to invade North America, where seasons play a role in disease persistence. The values for the basic reproductive number show that, in order to eradicate the disease, the survival time of mosquitoes must decrease below 8.67 days. Mechanisms such as aggressive spraying that decreases the mosquito population can contain an outbreak. Otherwise, Rift Valley fever is likely to establish itself as a recurring seasonal outbreak. Rift Valley fever poses a potential threat to North America that would require aggressive interventions in order to prevent a recurring seasonal outbreak. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 71-94 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836426 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836426 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:71-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yasmine Samia Author-X-Name-First: Yasmine Author-X-Name-Last: Samia Author-Name: Alison Kealey Author-X-Name-First: Alison Author-X-Name-Last: Kealey Author-Name: Robert J. Smith? Author-X-Name-First: Robert J. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith? Title: A mathematical model of a theoretical sleeping sickness vaccine Abstract: Human African sleeping sickness is found throughout sub-Saharan Africa. It affects up to 70,000 individuals per year, primarily the poor. Existing treatments are limited, costly, and often toxic. Recent evidence suggests that a vaccine may be viable. Potential vaccines against Rhodesian sleeping sickness may be imperfect, may only be delivered to some proportion of the population, may wane over time, and may not always mount an immunogenic response in the individual receiving it. The potential effects of such a vaccine are addressed and compared to vector control. The basic reproductive ratio for both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals is derived. The fitness ratio is used to show that vaccines that grant longer life must be accompanied by a corresponding reduction in transmissibility. A sensitivity analysis shows that control of tsetse flies through insecticide is superior to an idealized vaccine. Such a vaccine is unlikely to eradicate the disease, even if delivered to 100% of the population. Consequently, efforts to control sleeping sickness that do not incorporate vector control may be flawed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 95-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836427 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836427 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:95-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sehjeong Kim Author-X-Name-First: Sehjeong Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Name: Abdessamad Tridane Author-X-Name-First: Abdessamad Author-X-Name-Last: Tridane Author-Name: Dong Eui Chang Author-X-Name-First: Dong Eui Author-X-Name-Last: Chang Title: Human migrations and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa Abstract: The efficacy of border screening as a prophylactic measure against mosquito-borne diseases in Africa depends on the value of the lower bound of the basic reproduction number. If this lower bound is greater than one, then border screening may be ineffective. In this case, the best prophylaxis is to isolate and treat patients in their region of residence. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-146 Issue: 2 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054221 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054221 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:123-146 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zofia Mielecka-Kubien Author-X-Name-First: Zofia Author-X-Name-Last: Mielecka-Kubien Title: On the estimation of the distribution of alcohol consumption Abstract: The parameters of the distribution of alcohol consumption are estimated from the population mean and the mode of the log-normal distribution, separately for each sex. The lack of representativeness of the sample due to the failure to reach heavy drinkers is overcome. The distributions of alcohol consumption show a tight relationship between mean and standard deviation. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-19 Issue: 1 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348749 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348749 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:1-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Luca Bartoli Author-X-Name-First: Luca Author-X-Name-Last: Bartoli Author-Name: Maria Chiara Pagliarella Author-X-Name-First: Maria Chiara Author-X-Name-Last: Pagliarella Author-Name: Carlo Russo Author-X-Name-First: Carlo Author-X-Name-Last: Russo Author-Name: Renato Salvatore Author-X-Name-First: Renato Author-X-Name-Last: Salvatore Title: Small-area estimation in the presence of area-level correlated responses Abstract: The Fay-Herriot area-level model for correlated response data is augmented with a between-groups-of-domains effect. Correlated-response parameters of small-area estimates no longer need the assumption of spatial contiguity. A simulation shows that area-level correlated-response observations increase the efficiency of the estimates, but do not reduce the biases. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 20-40 Issue: 1 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1408354 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1408354 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:20-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Younga Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younga Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: Precarious employment among South Korean women: Insights from a comparison to France Abstract: Family responsibilities for women are often associated with precarious employment. This relation varies depending on whether women can reconcile family life and work or not. Based on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study from 1998 to 2008 and on the French part of the European Community Household Panel between 1998 and 2001, a multiple correspondence analysis shows that precariousness in employment is correlated with family life and levels of education. The better conditions of work-family balance in France enable young mothers to combine family life with stable employment of good quality, which is not the case for South Korean women. The comparison of the two countries highlights the necessary reforms in favor of women’s better being. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 41-61 Issue: 1 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1408356 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1408356 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:41-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vera Toepoel Author-X-Name-First: Vera Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel Author-Name: Matthias Schonlau Author-X-Name-First: Matthias Author-X-Name-Last: Schonlau Title: Dealing with nonresponse: Strategies to increase participation and methods for postsurvey adjustments Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 79-83 Issue: 2 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1299988 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1299988 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:79-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Angelo Mazza Author-X-Name-First: Angelo Author-X-Name-Last: Mazza Author-Name: Antonio Punzo Author-X-Name-First: Antonio Author-X-Name-Last: Punzo Title: Dealing with omitted answers in a survey on social integration of immigrants in Italy Abstract: Surveys are used to infer the level of social integration of immigrants. Item response theory helps to describe the relationship among responses to test items and latent traits of interest. However, in the presence of nonignorable missing data, which are omitted responses depending on the latent traits to be measured, estimates of the model parameters are biased. To account for nonignorable missing data, the quantity and quality of contacts between immigrants and natives (so called “social integration”) are taken into account through a linear function of the response propensity. Higher education, no intention to migrate again, young age, Albanian nationality, and declaring a non-Muslim religion or none, comparatively favor social integration. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 84-102 Issue: 2 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271648 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271648 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:84-102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Vandenplas Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Vandenplas Author-Name: Michèle Ernst Stähli Author-X-Name-First: Michèle Ernst Author-X-Name-Last: Stähli Author-Name: Dominique Joye Author-X-Name-First: Dominique Author-X-Name-Last: Joye Author-Name: Alexandre Pollien Author-X-Name-First: Alexandre Author-X-Name-Last: Pollien Title: Adjustment for nonresponse with variables from different sources: Bias correction and precision loss, with application to the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 Abstract: Adjustment for nonresponse should reduce the nonresponse bias without decreasing the precision of the estimates. Adjustment for nonresponses are commonly based on socio-demographic variables, although these variables may be poorly correlated with response propensities and with variables of interest. Such variables nevertheless have the advantage of being available for all sample units, whether or not they are participating in the survey. Alternatively, adjustment for nonresponse can be obtained from a follow-up survey aimed at sample units which did not participate in the survey and from which the variables are designed to be correlated with response propensities. However, information collected through these follow-up surveys is not available for people in the sample who participated neither in the survey nor in its nonresponse follow-up. These two sets of variables when used in a nonresponse model for the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 differ only slightly with regard to their effect on bias correction and on the precision of estimates. The variables from the follow-up are performing slightly better. In both cases, the adjustment for nonresponse performs poorly. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 103-125 Issue: 2 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271656 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271656 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:103-125 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Annamaria Bianchi Author-X-Name-First: Annamaria Author-X-Name-Last: Bianchi Author-Name: Silvia Biffignandi Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Author-X-Name-Last: Biffignandi Title: Representativeness in panel surveys Abstract: A panel is a set of units recruited and used in successive surveys. When the sample unit is the household, so-called R-indicators together with the comparison of distributions of certain variables to those known in the total population help to measure the representativeness of the panel. The method is applied to Understanding Society, a U.K. household longitudinal study. At each wave, under- and over-represented groups of individuals are identified. This allows the implementation of better survey designs and procedures to reduce the bias of nonresponse. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 126-143 Issue: 2 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271650 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271650 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:126-143 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Kostov Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Kostov Title: , by Anatoli I. Agafonov Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 144-145 Issue: 2 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1299989 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1299989 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:144-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 149-150 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513571 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513571 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:149-150 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE Author-Name: DAVID CROIX Author-X-Name-First: DAVID Author-X-Name-Last: CROIX Author-Name: OMAR LICANDRO Author-X-Name-First: OMAR Author-X-Name-Last: LICANDRO Title: MODELLING VINTAGE STRUCTURES WITH DDEs: PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS Abstract: A comprehensive study of the linkages between demographic and economic variables should not only account for vintage specificity but also incorporate the relevant economic and demographic decisions in a complete optimal control set-up. A methodological set-up allowing to reach these objectives is described. In this framework, time is continuous but agents take discrete timing decisions. The mixture of continuous and discrete time yields differential-difference equations (DDEs). It is clearly shown that the approach allows for a relatively complete and rigorous analytical exploration in some special cases (mainly linear or quasi linear models), and for an easy computational appraisal in the general case. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 151-179 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480890513580 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480890513580 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:151-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL* Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL* Author-Name: ROMINA BOARINI Author-X-Name-First: ROMINA Author-X-Name-Last: BOARINI Title: PRESERVING TRANSFER BENEFIT FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE GENERATIONS Abstract: How should governmental policy be adjusted to guarantee a positive account for each generation, taking into account welfare and equity across age classes? Such a contract depends on the dynamic maintenance of a positive account for every present and future generation and can be achieved by manipulating both pension and education spending. The ensuing dynamic tradeoff between generational benefit and equity implies an optimal interest rate in human capital and attenuates the link that long-term pension sustainability necessarily depends on positive population growth. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-203 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513599 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513599 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:181-203 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: OLLI TAHVONEN Author-X-Name-First: OLLI Author-X-Name-Last: TAHVONEN Title: OPTIMAL HARVESTING OF FOREST AGE CLASSES: A SURVEY OF SOME RECENT RESULTS Abstract: Dynamic optimization problems with vintage or age class structures involve complexities that are not encountered in economic models with fewer state variables. These problems have been faced for centuries in forest harvesting decisions, and the earliest ideas for tackling them date from the early 15th century. However, only recently has the harvesting problem with multiple age classes been specified in a form that is fruitful for economic analysis. This survey discusses some of the main properties of the nonlinear discrete time forestry model, which has proven to be tractable in analytical studies and has been used in empirical policy-oriented research. It is shown that the model's stationary state is represented by a set of cyclic solutions and that the maximum radius of the cycle depends on the period length applied in the model specification. The result suggests that it is essential to note that implications of using continuous or discrete variables in specifying time and age structure in age class models with economic optimization. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 205-232 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513616 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513616 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:205-232 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: SILVIA FAGGIAN* Author-X-Name-First: SILVIA Author-X-Name-Last: FAGGIAN* Author-Name: FAUSTO GOZZI Author-X-Name-First: FAUSTO Author-X-Name-Last: GOZZI Title: ON THE DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS OF PDE'S WITH AGE STRUCTURE Abstract: A survey and some new results are presented concerning the dynamic programming for a class of optimal control problems of partial differential equations with age-structure and of delay systems that include some applied examples from economic theory and from population dynamics. A general optimal control problem in Hilbert spaces applying to all examples is investigated, with particular stress on one family of applications: optimal investment models with vintage capital. Some new results are given for the case of constrained investments, including a study of the properties of the optimal trajectories. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 233-270 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 11 Year: 2004 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513625 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513625 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:233-270 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov Author-Name: Joseph Whitmeyer Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Whitmeyer Title: Stationary distributions in Kolmogorov-Petrovski- Piskunov-type models with an infinite number of particles Abstract: A model of population dynamics in continuous time on the lattice contains the Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov equation as a special case. A limit distribution exists. The first three moments and the correlation function are expressed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 147-160 Issue: 3 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330010 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330010 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:147-160 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vera Toepoel Author-X-Name-First: Vera Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel Author-Name: Hannah Emerson Author-X-Name-First: Hannah Author-X-Name-Last: Emerson Title: Using experts’ consensus (the Delphi method) to evaluate weighting techniques in web surveys not based on probability schemes Abstract: Weighting techniques in web surveys based on no probability schemes are devised to correct biases due to self-selection, undercoverage, and nonresponse. In an interactive panel, 38 survey experts addressed weighting techniques and auxiliary variables in web surveys. Most of them corrected all biases jointly and applied calibration and propensity score adjustments. Although they claimed that sociodemographic and web-related variables are the most useful auxiliary variables to employ in adjustments, they considered only sociodemographic variables to correct biases because of their availability. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 161-171 Issue: 3 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330012 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330012 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:161-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavel Zimmermann Author-X-Name-First: Pavel Author-X-Name-Last: Zimmermann Title: Modeling mortality at old age with time-varying parameters Abstract: Several models of old age mortality with time-varying parameters are expressed in a single formula. In these models, the existence of an age threshold above which mortality increases over time and below which mortality decreases over time is problematic. The conditions of appearance of this threshold are expressed and shown on logistic and exponential models with empirical data. The conditions of appearance of the threshold reflect actual situations in developed countries. Richards’ curve avoids the appearance of the threshold with empirical data. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 172-180 Issue: 3 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330013 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330013 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:172-180 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Title: Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization: Sensitivity analysis Abstract: The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length of the reconstruction period, and to variations in the actual demographic flows. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-189 Issue: 3 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330014 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330014 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:181-189 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Title: Sensible Moyen Âge, une histoire des émotions dans l’Occident médiéval [Sensitive Middle Ages, a History of Emotions in the Medieval West], by Damien Bocquet and Piroska Nagy Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 190-195 Issue: 3 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330017 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330017 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:190-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A. Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews Title: Methods and applications in spatial demography Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 183-184 Issue: 4 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1653058 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1653058 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:183-184 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A. Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews Title: In memoriam: Jennifer Buher Kane (1979–2019) Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 185-185 Issue: 4 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1669363 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1669363 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:185-185 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jennifer B. Kane Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer B. Author-X-Name-Last: Kane Author-Name: Ehsan Farshchi Author-X-Name-First: Ehsan Author-X-Name-Last: Farshchi Title: Neighborhood affluence protects against antenatal smoking: Evidence from a spatial multiple membership model Abstract: A spatial multiple membership model formalizes the effect of neighborhood affluence on antenatal smoking. The data are geocoded New Jersey birth certificate records linked to United States census tract-level data from 1999 to 2007. Neighborhood affluence shows significant spatial autocorrelation and local clustering. Better model fit is observed when incorporating the spatial clustering of neighborhood affluence into multivariate analyses. Relative to the spatial multiple membership model, the multilevel model that ignores spatial clustering produced downwardly biased standard errors; the effective sample size of the key parameter of interest (neighborhood affluence) is also lower. Residents of communities located in high-high affluence clusters likely have better access to health-promoting institutions that regulate antenatal smoking behaviors. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 186-207 Issue: 4 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553399 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553399 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:186-207 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jonathan Daw Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan Author-X-Name-Last: Daw Author-Name: Ashton M. Verdery Author-X-Name-First: Ashton M. Author-X-Name-Last: Verdery Author-Name: Sarah E. Patterson Author-X-Name-First: Sarah E. Author-X-Name-Last: Patterson Title: Beyond household walls: the spatial structure of American extended kinship networks Abstract: How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same census tract. Multivariate regression tests show that family structure, educational attainment, and age are closely associated with kin proximity. Fixed-effects models demonstrate that family formation shapes spatial relations between kin. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 208-237 Issue: 4 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1592637 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1592637 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:208-237 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zawar Hussain Author-X-Name-First: Zawar Author-X-Name-Last: Hussain Author-Name: Mashail M. Al-Sobhi Author-X-Name-First: Mashail M. Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Sobhi Author-Name: Bander Al-Zahrani Author-X-Name-First: Bander Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Zahrani Author-Name: Housila P. Singh Author-X-Name-First: Housila P. Author-X-Name-Last: Singh Author-Name: Tanveer A. Tarray Author-X-Name-First: Tanveer A. Author-X-Name-Last: Tarray Title: Improved randomized response in additive scrambling models Abstract: Randomized response models deal with stigmatizing variables appearing in health surveys. Additive and subtractive scrambling in split sample and double response yield unbiased mean and sensitivity estimators of high precision. The split sample method is protective of privacy. The double response method is as protective only conditionally. To achieve the maximum efficiency, the scrambling variables must be similar to each other and the probability of obtaining a true response must be as large as possible. The randomized response procedures yield more efficient estimates of the average total number of classes missed by university students. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 205-221 Issue: 4 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1087773 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1087773 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:205-221 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sally Abdelfatah Author-X-Name-First: Sally Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfatah Author-Name: Reda Mazloum Author-X-Name-First: Reda Author-X-Name-Last: Mazloum Title: An efficient two-stage randomized response model under stratified random sampling Abstract: A two-stage randomized response model is extended to stratified random sampling in order to find out more efficient estimators of proportions built from sensitive questions, which respondents may not answer truthfully, in a population divided into homogeneous subgroups. In each subgroup, the respondents who have not answered the sensitive question in the first stage are requested in the second stage to either answer the sensitive question (second attempt then) or to draw a card indicating “yes” or “no”. In the latter case, they are required to report the outcome. Such extension provides a more efficient estimator of the proportion of the population having a given sensitive attribute than its counterpart in simple random sampling. The extended two-stage randomized response model is more efficient than the stratified randomized response model, where respondents must answer the sensitive question either in the first or in the second stage. Moreover, it increases the respondents’ cooperation. When strata weights are unknown, they are estimated by the double sampling method. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 222-238 Issue: 4 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1222222 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1222222 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:222-238 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tao Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Tao Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Title: Socioeconomic determinants of obesity and hypertension at the county level in China Abstract: In a nationally representative database, the risk of obesity and hypertension in China is significantly associated with age and the socioeconomic environment. Women in China are more likely obese and less likely to have hypertension than men. Education mitigates the risks of obesity and hypertension. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 239-252 Issue: 4 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1222223 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1222223 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:239-252 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: EOV Editorial Board Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 4 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1253953 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1253953 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Seyed M. Moghadas Author-X-Name-First: Seyed M. Author-X-Name-Last: Moghadas Title: Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 1 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054222 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054222 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yali Yang Author-X-Name-First: Yali Author-X-Name-Last: Yang Author-Name: Jianhong Wu Author-X-Name-First: Jianhong Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Jianquan Li Author-X-Name-First: Jianquan Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Xiaxia Xu Author-X-Name-First: Xiaxia Author-X-Name-Last: Xu Title: Tuberculosis with relapse: A model Abstract: In a model of tuberculosis with relapse, the basic reproduction number R0 includes new and relapse infections. Lyapunov functions help to prove that the global dynamic is completely determined by R0. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling shows that early diagnosis and treatment are more efficient when relapse cases are considered. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 3-20 Issue: 1 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.998550 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.998550 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:3-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marie Varughese Author-X-Name-First: Marie Author-X-Name-Last: Varughese Author-Name: Richard Long Author-X-Name-First: Richard Author-X-Name-Last: Long Author-Name: Michael Y. Li Author-X-Name-First: Michael Y. Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: Efficacy of screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection Abstract: Sixty-three percent of the total active tuberculosis cases in Canada were diagnosed among foreign-born individuals, representing 20% of the total population. The majority of these cases occur from the reactivation of tuberculosis infections acquired prior to immigration. A preventive policy consisting of screening and treating new immigrants for latent tuberculosis infection is evaluated on its efficacy for reducing the total number of tuberculosis cases, using tuberculosis incidence data between 1986 and 1995 from the Canadian tuberculosis reporting system. The most effective intervention is to screen for and treat latent tuberculosis infection among arriving immigrants from countries of birth with a tuberculosis incidence rate greater than 15 cases per 100,000. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 21-36 Issue: 1 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.998546 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.998546 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:21-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yimin Du Author-X-Name-First: Yimin Author-X-Name-Last: Du Author-Name: Jianhong Wu Author-X-Name-First: Jianhong Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Jane M. Heffernan Author-X-Name-First: Jane M. Author-X-Name-Last: Heffernan Title: A simple in-host model for Mycobacterium tuberculosis that captures all infection outcomes Abstract: Tuberculosis infection can result in clearance, latent infection, or active disease, with slow or fast progression. A four-dimensional model of in-host tuberculosis infection includes macrophages, T lymphocytes, tuberculosis bacteria, and their interactions. Changes in the infection rate, cell-mediated immunity rate, macrophage loss rate, and bacteria killing rate most affect disease outcomes. Simulations show that a periodic solution can occur. When the infected macrophage killing rate is constant, a backward bifurcation exists and the system is globally stable. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 37-63 Issue: 1 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054220 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054220 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:37-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fred Brauer Author-X-Name-First: Fred Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer Author-Name: Yanyu Xiao Author-X-Name-First: Yanyu Author-X-Name-Last: Xiao Author-Name: Seyed M. Moghadas Author-X-Name-First: Seyed M. Author-X-Name-Last: Moghadas Title: Drug resistance in an age-of-infection model Abstract: In the case of a disease spreading over a time-scale comparable to the average lifetime in a host population, when the infectiousness of individuals depends on the tine since the onset of infection and when infections involve both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of a pathogen, resistance may develop during the treatment of drug-sensitive strains. If increasing the treatment rate reduces the reproduction number of the drug-sensitive strain to a value below the reproduction number of the drug-resistant strain, then the disease may persist at a boundary equilibrium where only drug-resistant infection is present. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 64-78 Issue: 1 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054216 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054216 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:64-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Natalja Menold Author-X-Name-First: Natalja Author-X-Name-Last: Menold Author-Name: Christof Wolf Author-X-Name-First: Christof Author-X-Name-Last: Wolf Author-Name: Kathrin Bogner Author-X-Name-First: Kathrin Author-X-Name-Last: Bogner Title: Design aspects of rating scales in questionnaires Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 63-65 Issue: 2 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439240 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439240 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:63-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Diana Zavala-Rojas Author-X-Name-First: Diana Author-X-Name-Last: Zavala-Rojas Author-Name: Raül Tormos Author-X-Name-First: Raül Author-X-Name-Last: Tormos Author-Name: Wiebke Weber Author-X-Name-First: Wiebke Author-X-Name-Last: Weber Author-Name: Melanie Revilla Author-X-Name-First: Melanie Author-X-Name-Last: Revilla Title: Designing response scales with multi-trait-multi-method experiments Abstract: Split-ballot multi-trait-multi-method experiments are used to evaluate the quality of measurement of different response scales of survey items gauging “evaluation of government services” and “political trust.” The response scales differ by agree/disagree scales, item-specific scales, total number of categories, and the presence of fixed reference points on their constructing extreme items. The Center for Opinion Studies of the Catalan government in Spain conducted the survey in 2011. The best response scale depends on the complexity of the topic and of the formulation of the question. For simple topics and formulations, the format of the response scale has no effect on the quality of measurement. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 66-81 Issue: 2 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439241 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439241 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:66-81 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefanie Eifler Author-X-Name-First: Stefanie Author-X-Name-Last: Eifler Author-Name: Natalja Menold Author-X-Name-First: Natalja Author-X-Name-Last: Menold Title: Linearity, symmetry, and equidistance in semantic differential scales for measuring images of self and images of others Abstract: Violations of linearity, symmetry, and equidistance of scale points in semantic differential scales may be due to respondents failing to figure out antonyms, to a positivity bias, or to respondents curtailing their reading the options. Multiple correspondence analysis on data provided by a randomized between-subjects experiment (split-ballot), using a web survey of 537 German residents, shows that bipolar semantic differential scales allow for linear measurement and conceal no positivity bias, and that using not suitable adjective pairs in semantic differential scales destroys symmetry. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 82-98 Issue: 2 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439242 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439242 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:82-98 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kathrin Bogner Author-X-Name-First: Kathrin Author-X-Name-Last: Bogner Author-Name: Klaus Pforr Author-X-Name-First: Klaus Author-X-Name-Last: Pforr Author-Name: Natalja Menold Author-X-Name-First: Natalja Author-X-Name-Last: Menold Title: Attitude strength moderates adverse effects to questionnaire design Abstract: The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation of a “don’t know” category and its visual design. A multinomial logistic regression shows that presenting a “don’t know” category drives respondents toward extreme categories. The visual design of the “don’t know” category influences the distribution of responses, all the more that the respondents’ attitudes toward the item topic are weak. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 99-111 Issue: 2 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439244 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439244 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:99-111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vera Toepoel Author-X-Name-First: Vera Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel Author-Name: Frederik Funke Author-X-Name-First: Frederik Author-X-Name-Last: Funke Title: Sliders, visual analogue scales, or buttons: Influence of formats and scales in mobile and desktop surveys Abstract: In an experiment dealing with the use of personal computer, tablet, or mobile, scale points (up to 5, 7, or 11) and response formats (bars or buttons) are varied to examine differences in mean scores and nonresponse. The total number of “not applicable” answers does not vary significantly. Personal computer has the lowest item nonresponse, followed by mobile and tablet, and a lower mean score than for mobile. Slider bars showed lower mean scores and more nonresponses than buttons, indicating that they are more prone to bias and difficult in use. Sider bars, which work with a drag-and-drop principle, perform worse than visual analogue scales working with a point-and-click principle and buttons. Five-point scales have more nonresponses than eleven-point scales. Respondents evaluate 11-point scales more positively than shorter scales. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 112-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439245 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439245 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:112-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guillaume Chauvet Author-X-Name-First: Guillaume Author-X-Name-Last: Chauvet Title: Variance estimation for the 2006 French housing survey Abstract: In the 2006 French housing survey, information is collected on many aspects of housing to describe the housing stock in France and the housing conditions of French households. The basic national sample results from a multistage sampling design. Complementary samples were selected to perform accurate estimations for socio-demographic domains. Some French regions proceeded to a regional and local extension of the national sample. The variance is estimated for a region with a regional and local extension of the basic national sample. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 147-163 Issue: 3 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836401 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836401 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:147-163 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thierry E. Huillet Author-X-Name-First: Thierry E. Author-X-Name-Last: Huillet Title: Random walk Green kernels in the neutral Moran model conditioned on survivors at a random time to origin Abstract: In the theory of finite discrete-time birth and death chains with absorbing endpoint boundaries, the evaluation of both additive and multiplicative path functionals is made possible by their Green and λ–potential kernels. These computations are addressed in the context of such Markov chains. The application to the neutral Moran model of population genetics yields first hitting and return times. A neutral Moran bridge model, forward and backward in time, for a given total number x of survivors of a single common ancestor at some random time T to the origin of times, yields the age of a mutant allele currently observed to have x copies of itself. This forward theory of age, made possible by Green kernels, is comparable to Watterson’s backward theory of age, which makes use of the reversibility of the Moran chain. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 164-200 Issue: 3 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1087775 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1087775 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:164-200 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Title: , by Andreas Wagner Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 201-203 Issue: 3 Volume: 23 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1080053 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1080053 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:201-203 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Biagio Aragona Author-X-Name-First: Biagio Author-X-Name-Last: Aragona Author-Name: Rosanna De Rosa Author-X-Name-First: Rosanna Author-X-Name-Last: De Rosa Title: Big data in policy making Abstract: A review of studies based on big data shows that big data advantageously complete surveys and censuses, nurture policy making, and highlight effects of a given policy in real time. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 107-113 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418113 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418113 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:107-113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Angela Chieppa Author-X-Name-First: Angela Author-X-Name-Last: Chieppa Author-Name: Gerardo Gallo Author-X-Name-First: Gerardo Author-X-Name-Last: Gallo Author-Name: Valeria Tomeo Author-X-Name-First: Valeria Author-X-Name-Last: Tomeo Author-Name: Francesco Borrelli Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Borrelli Author-Name: Stefania Di Domenico Author-X-Name-First: Stefania Author-X-Name-Last: Di Domenico Title: Knowledge discovery for inferring the usually resident population from administrative registers Abstract: From 2018 onward, the population census in Italy will leave the traditional “door-to-door” enumeration for a “register-based” system combining administrative data and surveys. An integrated system of registers makes it possible to identify patterns and groups among huge amounts of administrative data. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) carried out a trial to compute the usually resident population by using administrative data and identify patterns, leading to classify individuals and constitute groups, in order to prepare the register-based census. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 92-106 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418114 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418114 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:92-106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Luis Martinez-Uribe Author-X-Name-First: Luis Author-X-Name-Last: Martinez-Uribe Title: Digital archives as Big data Abstract: Digital archives contribute to Big data. Combining social network analysis, coincidence analysis, data reduction, and visual analytics leads to better characterize topics over time, publishers’ main themes and best authors of all times, according to the British newspaper The Guardian and from the 3 million records of the British National Bibliography. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 69-79 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418116 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418116 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:69-79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maria Michela Dickson Author-X-Name-First: Maria Michela Author-X-Name-Last: Dickson Author-Name: Anton Grafström Author-X-Name-First: Anton Author-X-Name-Last: Grafström Author-Name: Diego Giuliani Author-X-Name-First: Diego Author-X-Name-Last: Giuliani Author-Name: Giuseppe Espa Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe Author-X-Name-Last: Espa Title: Efficiency and feasibility of sampling schemes in establishment surveys Abstract: When conducting firm-level surveys, a relevant aspect in sampling design is to guarantee that the selected sample of business units is representative of the population. Stratified sampling design is used to obtain a representative sample. However, stratification of the main characteristics of establishments may not always be computationally feasible, due to the high number of small and empty strata occurring when the population is highly stratified. A simulation with common sampling designs allows the comparison of the local pivotal method and spatially correlated Poisson sampling in terms of spatial balance and efficiency in estimation. These spatial designs are efficient, whereas stratification is no longer feasible. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 114-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553411 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553411 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:114-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alessandra Righi Author-X-Name-First: Alessandra Author-X-Name-Last: Righi Title: Assessing migration through social media: a review Abstract: Social media can be used not only for evaluating migration flows almost in real time and the degree of integration in the destination countries but also for the understanding of public opinion sentiment about immigration. Experiences based on scraping social media are reviewed, and the use of geo-located data and advertising platforms turns out to be the most promising opportunities supplied by these sources. The current challenge is to measure the sentiment of Italian-speaking twitterers toward migration. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 80-91 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1565271 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1565271 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:80-91 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Enrica Amaturo Author-X-Name-First: Enrica Author-X-Name-Last: Amaturo Author-Name: Biagio Aragona Author-X-Name-First: Biagio Author-X-Name-Last: Aragona Title: Methods for big data in social sciences Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 65-68 Issue: 2 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1597577 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1597577 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:65-68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Enrico Fabrizi Author-X-Name-First: Enrico Author-X-Name-Last: Fabrizi Author-Name: Tomasz Ża̧dło Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz Author-X-Name-Last: Ża̧dło Title: Survey sampling and small-area estimation Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-183 Issue: 4 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1507580 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1507580 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:181-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mauno Keto Author-X-Name-First: Mauno Author-X-Name-Last: Keto Author-Name: Jussi Hakanen Author-X-Name-First: Jussi Author-X-Name-Last: Hakanen Author-Name: Erkki Pahkinen Author-X-Name-First: Erkki Author-X-Name-Last: Pahkinen Title: Register data in sample allocations for small-area estimation Abstract: The inadequate control of sample sizes in surveys using stratified sampling and area estimation may occur when the overall sample size is small or auxiliary information is insufficiently used. Very small sample sizes are possible for some areas. The proposed allocation based on multi-objective optimization uses a small-area model and estimation method and semi-collected empirical data annually collected empirical data. The assessment of its performance at the area and at the population levels is based on design-based sample simulations. Five previously developed allocations serve as references. The model-based estimator is more accurate than the design-based Horvitz–Thompson estimator and the model-assisted regression estimator. Two trade-off issues are between accuracy and bias and between the area- and the population-level qualities of estimates. If the survey uses model-based estimation, the sampling design should incorporate the underlying model and the estimation method. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 184-214 Issue: 4 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1437318 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1437318 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:184-214 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomasz Bąk Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz Author-X-Name-Last: Bąk Title: Drawn-by-drawn sampling based on neighborhood matrix Abstract: In drawn-by-drawn sampling, elements are drawn one after another and drawing can be stopped at any time. It leads to ordered samples. This method is convenient to obtain spatially balanced samples. However, sampling may not need to be unordered. This is the case of Wywiał sampling designs, which are based on a neighborhood matrix. Their adaptation to drawn-by-drawn sampling has the merit to be of simple use. It requires defining the sampling plan, the sampling scheme, and the first-order probabilities of inclusion. Application to a sampling from a grid of squares. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 215-226 Issue: 4 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1508189 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1508189 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:215-226 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Barbara Kowalczyk Author-X-Name-First: Barbara Author-X-Name-Last: Kowalczyk Author-Name: Dorota Juszczak Author-X-Name-First: Dorota Author-X-Name-Last: Juszczak Title: Composite estimator based on the recursive ratio for an arbitrary rotation scheme Abstract: Partial replacement of units in repeated surveys increases the efficiency of the estimation of the population mean. The composite estimator with constant coefficients, based on the recursive ratio, is useful in surveys with many variables. The mean square error of this estimator is obtained for an arbitrary rotation scheme. Comparisons indicate that it is more efficient than the sample mean for various rotation schemes. Simulations show that it performs better than other composite estimators in surveys with many variables changing differently over time. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 227-247 Issue: 4 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477385 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477385 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:227-247 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Correction Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 248-248 Issue: 4 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1511136 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1511136 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:248-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Xiaojie Mu Author-X-Name-First: Xiaojie Author-X-Name-Last: Mu Author-Name: Qimin Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Qimin Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Author-Name: Han Wu Author-X-Name-First: Han Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Xining Li Author-X-Name-First: Xining Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: Ergodicity and extinction in a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with influence of information Abstract: An epidemic model with stochastic contact transmission coefficient takes into account white noise and the influence of information. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease are expressed. The existence of a stationary distribution and the ergodic property are proved. The peak of infected population can be decreased by information. The analytical results are showed by simulations and the influence of white noise and information on the dynamics of epidemics are evaluated. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493869 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493869 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:1-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Akbar Abravesh Author-X-Name-First: Akbar Author-X-Name-Last: Abravesh Author-Name: Masoud Ganji Author-X-Name-First: Masoud Author-X-Name-Last: Ganji Author-Name: Behdad Mostafaiy Author-X-Name-First: Behdad Author-X-Name-Last: Mostafaiy Title: Estimation of reliability P(X > Y) for distributions with power hazard function based on upper record values Abstract: For $$X$$X and $$Y$$Y two independent random variables, upper values from the family of distributions with power hazard function are used to obtain the maximum likelihood and the Bayes estimators of $$P(X \gt Y)$$P(X>Y). The Bayes estimator relies on the squared-error loss function given informative and non-informative prior distributions. It is obtained by either Lindley’s approximation, Tierney and Kadane’s method, or Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation and Tierney and Kadane’s method have smaller mean squared errors than both Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimator. The application for lung cancer data shows that the mortality risk by lung cancer is 40% lower for men than for women. The application for lifetimes of steels shows that steel specimen are 40% more likely to break up under 35.0 stress amplitude than under 35.5. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 27-46 Issue: 1 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493867 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493867 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:27-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elena Chernousova Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov Title: Steady state and intermittency in the critical branching random walk with arbitrary total number of offspring Abstract: For the critical branching random walk on the lattice $${{\mathbb Z}^d}$$Zd, in the case of an arbitrary total number of produced offspring spreading on the lattice from the parental particle, the existence of a limit distribution (which corresponds to a steady state (or statistical equilibrium)) of the population is proved. If the second factorial moment of the total number of offspring is much larger than the square of the first factorial moment, then the limit particle field displays strong deviations from the uniformity: this is intermittency. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 47-63 Issue: 1 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493868 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493868 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:47-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pierre Bernhard Author-X-Name-First: Pierre Author-X-Name-Last: Bernhard Author-Name: Marc Deschamps Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Deschamps Title: Kalman 1960: The birth of modern system theory Abstract: Rudolph E. Kalman is mainly known for the Kalman filter, first published in 1960. In this year, he published two equally important contributions, one about linear state space system theory and the other about linear quadratic optimal control theory. These three domains are intertwined in the later theory of linear quadratic Gaussian control. An extended version of linear quadratic optimal control is put into practice in an example of cooperation in population ecology. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-145 Issue: 3 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553393 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553393 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:123-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Natali Hritonenko Author-X-Name-First: Natali Author-X-Name-Last: Hritonenko Author-Name: Yuri Yatsenko Author-X-Name-First: Yuri Author-X-Name-Last: Yatsenko Author-Name: Askar Boranbayev Author-X-Name-First: Askar Author-X-Name-Last: Boranbayev Title: Generalized functions in the qualitative study of heterogeneous populations Abstract: Solutions from non-smooth functional spaces, including generalized functions and measures, often appear in optimal control theory but are avoided in applications. They are however useful in finding the optimal distribution of investments into new and old capital equipment under improving technology. The corresponding economic problem involves optimal control in a linear Lotka-McKendrik model of age-structured population. Optimal solutions do not exist in normal functional classes and, so, generalized functions are used to construct the solutions. The optimal age-distributions of capital and investment include the Dirac function and are interpreted as instantaneous investment in equipment of certain age. A numerical simulation completes the presentation of the dynamics. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 146-162 Issue: 3 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553395 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553395 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:146-162 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Iram Saleem Author-X-Name-First: Iram Author-X-Name-Last: Saleem Author-Name: Aamir Sanaullah Author-X-Name-First: Aamir Author-X-Name-Last: Sanaullah Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif Title: Double-sampling regression-cum-exponential estimator of the mean of a sensitive variable Abstract: A flexible scrambled response model using a randomization device for quantitative sensitive data is used to evaluate the protection of respondents’ privacy. A double-sampling regression-cum-exponential estimator is used to estimate the mean of a sensitive variable using the mean of a nonsensitive auxiliary variable under scrambled response. The expected bias, the expected mean square error, and the minimum mean square error of this exponential-type estimator are expressed. Simulations and empirical results show that the proposed estimator under scrambled response model has a lower mean square error and a lower bias than the ratio and the exponential estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 163-182 Issue: 3 Volume: 26 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1565273 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1565273 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:163-182 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joel E. Cohen Author-X-Name-First: Joel E. Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen Author-Name: Daniel Courgeau Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Courgeau Title: Modeling distances between humans using Taylor’s law and geometric probability Abstract: Taylor’s law states that the variance of the distribution of distance between two randomly chosen individuals is a power function of the mean distance. It applies to the distances between two randomly chosen points in various geometric shapes, subject to a few conditions. In Réunion Island and metropolitan France, at some spatial scales, the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances are predicted accurately by the theoretical frequency distributions of inter-point distances in models of geometric probability under a uniform distribution of points. When these models fail to predict the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances, they provide baselines against which to highlight the spatial distribution of population concentrations. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 197-218 Issue: 4 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1289049 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1289049 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:197-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jacques Demongeot Author-X-Name-First: Jacques Author-X-Name-Last: Demongeot Author-Name: Mariem Jelassi Author-X-Name-First: Mariem Author-X-Name-Last: Jelassi Author-Name: Carla Taramasco Author-X-Name-First: Carla Author-X-Name-Last: Taramasco Title: From susceptibility to frailty in social networks: The case of obesity Abstract: The obesity pandemic is represented by a discrete-time Hopfield Boolean network embedded in continuous-time population dynamics. The influence of the social environment passes through a system of differential equations, whereby obesity spreads by imitation of the most influential neighbors, those who have the highest centrality indices in the network. This property is called “homophily.” Susceptibility and frailty are redefined using network properties. Projections of the spread of obesity are validated on data collected in a French high school. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 219-245 Issue: 4 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348718 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348718 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:219-245 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nina Daskalova Author-X-Name-First: Nina Author-X-Name-Last: Daskalova Title: Expectation maximization estimates of the offspring probabilities in a class of multitype branching processes with binary family trees Abstract: When proliferating cells are counted in several independent colonies at some time points, the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the multitype branching process are obtained trough an expectation maximization algorithm. In the case of an offspring distribution governed by a Markov branching process with binary family trees, this method, relying then on a partial knowledge of the tree, yields the same estimates as those computed with the complete knowledge of the tree. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 246-256 Issue: 4 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348723 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348723 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:246-256 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Board EOV Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 4 Volume: 24 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1411084 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1411084 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial board Journal: Pages: ebi-ebii Issue: 3-4 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525502 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525502 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:ebi-ebii Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marcia de Castro Author-X-Name-First: Marcia Author-X-Name-Last: de Castro Title: Changes in mortality and life expectancy: Some methodological issues Abstract: Measuring and explaining the effects of mortality changes on life expectancy has been discussed for the past three decades. Different approaches have been proposed using discrete or continuous methods. Two basic ideas underlie these approaches. The first compares two different mortality schedules and quantifies the contribution of each age group to the increase in life expectancy. The second analyzes how the progress in the mortality schedule translates into progress in life expectancy. This paper discusses and compares the approaches proposed by the United Nations (1982), Arriaga (1984), Pollard (1982, 1988), and Vaupel (1986), identifying their problems, advantages, and the types of situations where each one can best be applied. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 181-208 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525503 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525503 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:181-208 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: T. P. Hutchinson Author-X-Name-First: T. P. Author-X-Name-Last: Hutchinson Title: Calculation of the expected lifetime lost due to an extra risk Abstract: Methods are given for estimating the average years of life lost when a person is discovered to be at risk from an extra hazard. The methods use the probability per year of the extra risk striking, and the mean and standard deviation of lifetime in the absence of the risk. The formulae are simple enough that only a hand‐held calculator is needed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 209-216 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525504 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525504 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:209-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrei Rogers Author-X-Name-First: Andrei Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Author-Name: And Raymer Author-X-Name-First: And Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer Title: Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change Abstract: This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 231-263 Issue: 3-4 Volume: 9 Year: 2001 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525506 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525506 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:231-263 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A. Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews Title: Methods and applications in spatial demography: 2 Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-7 Issue: 1 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1715123 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1715123 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:1-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gillian Dunn Author-X-Name-First: Gillian Author-X-Name-Last: Dunn Author-Name: Glen D. Johnson Author-X-Name-First: Glen D. Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson Author-Name: Deborah L. Balk Author-X-Name-First: Deborah L. Author-X-Name-Last: Balk Author-Name: Grace Sembajwe Author-X-Name-First: Grace Author-X-Name-Last: Sembajwe Title: Spatially varying relationships between risk factors and child diarrhea in West Africa, 2008-2013 Abstract: Diarrhea is a major contributor to child morbidity and mortality in West Africa. Non-spatial regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression applied to data from 10 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in West Africa from 2008 to 2013 show that water source, toilet type, mother’s education, latitude, temperature, rainfall, altitude, and population density influence the risk of diarrhea. The risk associated with these factors is dependent on location and may be higher or lower than the rest of the study area. Areas with increased relative risk for diarrhea include several urban centers, low-elevation areas (coastal and along rivers), remote areas such as western Mali, and conflict zones (northeast Nigeria). Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 8-33 Issue: 1 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1592638 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1592638 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:8-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hongwei Xu Author-X-Name-First: Hongwei Author-X-Name-Last: Xu Title: Prevalence of left-handedness in China 2011: small-area estimates Abstract: Nationally representative survey data and small-area estimation techniques are used to assess the geographic prevalence of left-handedness in China 2011. Measures of individuals’ handedness are their self-reported dominant hand and their hand grip strength, which yield four estimates of left-handed prevalence, and these statistics are recorded at the provincial level. These estimates concord with one another. There are several geographic clusters of high-prevalence rates of left-handers located in ethnic minority-designated autonomous areas or historically revolutionary base areas, which may reflect a deep-rooted sense of defiance to authorities and promote such cultural values as individual autonomy and equality among local people. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 34-45 Issue: 1 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553412 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553412 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:34-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zack W. Almquist Author-X-Name-First: Zack W. Author-X-Name-Last: Almquist Author-Name: Nathaniel E. Helwig Author-X-Name-First: Nathaniel E. Author-X-Name-Last: Helwig Author-Name: Yun You Author-X-Name-First: Yun Author-X-Name-Last: You Title: Connecting Continuum of Care point-in-time homeless counts to United States Census areal units Abstract: In 2007, the Department of Housing and Urban Development initiated a point-in-time count of the homeless across the United States. The counts are administered by the Continuum of Care Program, which provides spatial and temporal data for the homeless population over the last decade. Unfortunately, this administrative spatial unit does not align with the more common areal units defined by the United States Census Bureau, which limits usability of these data. To unify these two areal units, spatial disaggregation, matching, and imputation allow for aligning Continuum of Care data with county data. The resulting county-level homeless counts for the years 2005 to 2017 are provided as an R package. The county-level data display more spatial precision and more temporal variation than the Continuum of Care-level data. Nonparametric regression analyses reveal that the spatiotemporal variation in the data can be well approximated by additive spatial and temporal effects at both the county and Continuum of Care level. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 46-58 Issue: 1 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1636574 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1636574 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:46-58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrius Čiginas Author-X-Name-First: Andrius Author-X-Name-Last: Čiginas Author-Name: Dalius Pumputis Author-X-Name-First: Dalius Author-X-Name-Last: Pumputis Title: Calibrated Edgeworth expansions of finite population L-statistics Abstract: A short Edgeworth expansion is approximated for the distribution function of a Studentized linear combination of order statistics computed on a random sample drawn without replacement from a finite population, and using auxiliary data available for the population units. Simulations show an improvement over the usual Gaussian approximation and previous empirical Edgeworth expansions. Naive synthetic estimates of the distribution function, based on the auxiliary data only, yield accurate results when the auxiliary variable is well correlated with the study variable. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 59-80 Issue: 2 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553408 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553408 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:59-80 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Garib N. Singh Author-X-Name-First: Garib N. Author-X-Name-Last: Singh Author-Name: Surbhi Suman Author-X-Name-First: Surbhi Author-X-Name-Last: Suman Author-Name: Chandraketu Singh Author-X-Name-First: Chandraketu Author-X-Name-Last: Singh Title: Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in two-stage sampling using a randomized response model under Poisson distribution Abstract: Unbiased estimation procedures of the mean total number of persons with a rare sensitive attribute apply for a clustered population under two-stage and stratified two-stage sampling schemes. Randomized response model is used to obtain the estimators, when the parameter of an unrelated rare non-sensitive attribute is either known or unknown. The variances of the resultant estimators are derived and their unbiased estimates are expressed. Numerical comparisons show that dispersions in the estimates are lower than other contemporary estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 81-114 Issue: 2 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553404 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553404 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:81-114 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeanne Prades Author-X-Name-First: Jeanne Author-X-Name-Last: Prades Title: Constructions and uses of laïcité (French secularism) in French public discourses Abstract: Discourse analysis of six actors’ political lines, their conceptions, and their uses of French secularism (laïcité) between 2013 and 2018 shows that mobilization of laïcité as a value is correlated to the construction of Islam and Muslims as objects of security in France. Perception of military and identity insecurities goes along with mobilization of laïcité as a shield-value of the French Republic that manifests into the desire to reinterpret the French 1905 law on separation of the Churches and the State, in reaction to Muslim practices or religious symbols. Since 1989, laïcité as a value has emerged both as the socially accepted representation of French secularism and the privileged discursive response to contemporary identity and security challenges posed by Islam, while laïcité as a principle has appeared as a counter-discourse defending the liberal spirit of the 1905 law. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 115-137 Issue: 2 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553410 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553410 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:115-137 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Malay Ghosh Author-X-Name-First: Malay Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh Author-Name: Jiyoun Myung Author-X-Name-First: Jiyoun Author-X-Name-Last: Myung Author-Name: Paduthol Godan Sankaran Author-X-Name-First: Paduthol Godan Author-X-Name-Last: Sankaran Title: Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation of the population median, with application in finite-population sampling Abstract: Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of the population median are provided under Dirichlet process priors. The finite-population sampling is used to estimate the finite-population median under Dirichlet process priors. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained from a frequentist perspective. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 159-167 Issue: 3 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1428469 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1428469 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:159-167 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: María Luz Gámiz Author-X-Name-First: María Luz Author-X-Name-Last: Gámiz Author-Name: María Dolores Martinez-Miranda Author-X-Name-First: María Dolores Author-X-Name-Last: Martinez-Miranda Author-Name: Rocío Raya-Miranda Author-X-Name-First: Rocío Author-X-Name-Last: Raya-Miranda Title: Graphical goodness-of-fit test for mortality models Abstract: Candidate parametric mortality models are tested graphically. If the model is correct, the transformed data are distributed exponentially. The graphical test is based on scale and space inference. It involves smoothing of the hazard rate and simultaneous confidence intervals. It is applied to a frailty model used to set annuity reserves. Simulation and the comparison with other non-graphical tests shows that the graphical test helps localize discrepancies of empirical data with respect to the tested model. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-142 Issue: 3 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477381 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477381 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:123-142 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavel Polyakov Author-X-Name-First: Pavel Author-X-Name-Last: Polyakov Title: Termination of the ice bucket challenge Abstract: The ice bucket challenge is a social game aimed at encouraging donations to the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis association. The rules imply that each participant challenges each recruited follower to dump a bucket of ice water on his or her head. The network of who has nominated whom has a tree structure. The short duration of the ice bucket challenge is explained by using the reproduction number $${R_0}$$R0 , under the assumption that the capacity to recruit followers varies with the participant. The epidemic lasts until the interruption of the transmission tree occurring well before the depletion of susceptible followers. Such a tree is reconstructed from publicly available contact data and the interest in this game. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 143-158 Issue: 3 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477384 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477384 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:143-158 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Morgan M. Millar Author-X-Name-First: Morgan M. Author-X-Name-Last: Millar Author-Name: Patricia Schmuhl Author-X-Name-First: Patricia Author-X-Name-Last: Schmuhl Author-Name: Kent Page Author-X-Name-First: Kent Author-X-Name-Last: Page Author-Name: Andrea L. Genovesi Author-X-Name-First: Andrea L. Author-X-Name-Last: Genovesi Author-Name: Michael Ely Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Ely Author-Name: Craig Hemingway Author-X-Name-First: Craig Author-X-Name-Last: Hemingway Author-Name: Lenora M. Olson Author-X-Name-First: Lenora M. Author-X-Name-Last: Olson Title: Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods Abstract: The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 168-179 Issue: 3 Volume: 25 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477386 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477386 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:168-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Xavier Bry Author-X-Name-First: Xavier Author-X-Name-Last: Bry Author-Name: Théo Simac Author-X-Name-First: Théo Author-X-Name-Last: Simac Author-Name: Salah Eddine El Ghachi Author-X-Name-First: Salah Eddine Author-X-Name-Last: El Ghachi Author-Name: Philippe Antoine Author-X-Name-First: Philippe Author-X-Name-Last: Antoine Title: Bridging data exploration and modeling in event-history analysis: the supervised-component Cox regression Abstract: In event-history analysis with many possibly collinear regressors, Cox’s proportional hazard model, like all generalized linear models, can fail to be identified. Dimension-reduction and regularization are therefore needed. Penalty-based methods such as the ridge and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) provide a regularized linear predictor, but fail to highlight the predictive structures. This is the gap filled by the supervised-component Cox regression (SCCoxR). Its principle is to compute a sequence of orthogonal explanatory components, which both rely on the strong correlation structures of regressors and optimize the goodness-of-fit of the model. One of its parameters tunes the balance between component strength and goodness of fit, thus bridging the gap between classical Cox regression with Cox regression on principal components. A second parameter allows the focus on subsets of highly correlated explanatory variables. A third parameter tunes the regularization of the model coefficients, leading to more robust estimates. Simulations show how to tune the parameters. The method is applied to the case study of polygamy in Dakar, Senegal. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 139-174 Issue: 3 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553413 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553413 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:139-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ayman Baklizi Author-X-Name-First: Ayman Author-X-Name-Last: Baklizi Title: Interval estimation of quantiles and reliability in the two – parameter exponential distribution based on records Abstract: In the estimation, using confidence intervals, of quantiles and reliability of the two – parameter exponential distribution based on record data, a pivot is defined and its exact cumulative distribution function and probability density function are computed. Confidence intervals using critical values from the cumulative distribution function of the pivot are obtained. Applications to crushed rock sizes and concentration of Sulfur dioxide from Long Beach, California. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 175-183 Issue: 3 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553429 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553429 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:175-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guihua Hu Author-X-Name-First: Guihua Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Li Qi Author-X-Name-First: Li Author-X-Name-Last: Qi Author-Name: Min Hu Author-X-Name-First: Min Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Yingan Wang Author-X-Name-First: Yingan Author-X-Name-Last: Wang Title: Triple-source estimator for estimating the net error in census coverage Abstract: The triple-source estimator avoids the correlation bias inherent in the double-source estimator, which has been a popular estimator of population size for assessing the quality of a census. The triple-source estimator relies on the census list, the quality-assessment survey list, and the administrative record list. It also provides an estimate of the net census coverage error. It is established in population strata of equal probability of being drawn and based on a sample. The triple-source estimator provides an unbiased estimate of the net error. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 184-198 Issue: 3 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553415 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553415 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:184-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elena Chernousova Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv Author-X-Name-First: Ostap Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov Title: Population model with immigration in continuous space Abstract: In a population model in continuous space, individuals evolve independently as branching random walks subject to immigration. If the underlying branching mechanism is subcritical, the model has a unique steady state for each value of the immigration intensity. Convergence to the equilibrium is exponentially fast. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior does not change under suitable perturbations of the main parameters of the model. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 199-215 Issue: 4 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626189 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626189 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:199-215 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Saurav Guha Author-X-Name-First: Saurav Author-X-Name-Last: Guha Author-Name: Hukum Chandra Author-X-Name-First: Hukum Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra Title: Improved chain-ratio type estimator for population total in double sampling Abstract: Chain-ratio estimators are often used to improve the efficiency of the estimation of the population total or the mean using two auxiliary variables, available in two different phases. An improved chain-ratio estimator for the population total based on double sampling is proposed when auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. The bias and the mean square error of this estimator are obtained for a large sample. Empirical evaluations using both model-based and design-based simulations show that the proposed estimator performs better than the ratio, the regression, and the difference estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 216-231 Issue: 4 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626635 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626635 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:216-231 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chouaib Beldjoudi Author-X-Name-First: Chouaib Author-X-Name-Last: Beldjoudi Author-Name: Tewfik Kernane Author-X-Name-First: Tewfik Author-X-Name-Last: Kernane Author-Name: Hamid El Maroufy Author-X-Name-First: Hamid Author-X-Name-Last: El Maroufy Title: Bayesian inference for a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic model with data augmentation Abstract: A Bayesian data-augmentation method allows estimating the parameters in a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model, which is formulated as a continuous-time Markov process and approximated by a diffusion process using the convergence of the master equation. The estimation was carried out with latent data points between every pair of observations simulated through the Euler-Maruyama scheme, which involves imputing the missing data in addition to the model parameters. The missing data and parameters are treated as random variables, and a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo algorithm updates the missing data and the parameter values. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed Markov-chain Monte-Carlo algorithm. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 232-258 Issue: 4 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1656491 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1656491 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:232-258 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Xiaoni Li Author-X-Name-First: Xiaoni Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Xining Li Author-X-Name-First: Xining Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Qimin Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Qimin Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Title: Time to extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with vaccination under Markov switching Abstract: A stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with vaccination includes stochastic variation in its parameters. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and the existence of the stationary distribution of the population are proved. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 259-274 Issue: 4 Volume: 27 Year: 2020 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626633 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626633 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:259-274 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Magdy E. El-Adll Author-X-Name-First: Magdy E. Author-X-Name-Last: El-Adll Title: Inference for the two-parameter exponential distribution with generalized order statistics Abstract: Inferences about estimation and prediction of the two-parameter exponential distribution are based on generalized order statistics. Point and interval estimates are used for scale and location parameters. Unbiased point predictors and reconstructors are based upon pivotal quantities. The mean square error and Pitman’s measure help assess the closeness of estimators and predictors. Point estimators of scale and location parameters and point predictors of future observations are computed in the application of durations until remission of 20 leukemia patients and in the application until failure of air-conditioning systems. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-23 Issue: 1 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1681187 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1681187 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:1-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Saurav Guha Author-X-Name-First: Saurav Author-X-Name-Last: Guha Author-Name: Hukum Chandra Author-X-Name-First: Hukum Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra Title: Improved estimation of finite population mean in two-phase sampling with subsampling of the nonrespondents Abstract: Improved chain-ratio estimators for the population mean based on two-phase sampling are proposed when the study variable and two auxiliary variables comprise non-response. Auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. Their biases and mean square errors are estimated under large sample approximation. Their efficiencies are compared with Hansen and Hurwitz’s estimator, the ratio and regression estimators for a single auxiliary variable, and Singh and Kumar’s estimators for two auxiliary variables. Empirical evaluations using both model-based and design-based simulations show that these estimators perform better than Hansen and Hurwitz’s estimator, the ratio and the regression estimators, and Singh and Kumar’s estimator. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 24-44 Issue: 1 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1694325 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1694325 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:24-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guihua Hu Author-X-Name-First: Guihua Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Jinpen Liao Author-X-Name-First: Jinpen Author-X-Name-Last: Liao Author-Name: Jianfan Peng Author-X-Name-First: Jianfan Author-X-Name-Last: Peng Author-Name: Ting Wu Author-X-Name-First: Ting Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Shushan Fan Author-X-Name-First: Shushan Author-X-Name-Last: Fan Author-Name: Baohong Ye Author-X-Name-First: Baohong Author-X-Name-Last: Ye Title: Estimation of census content error Abstract: The ratio content error estimators recommended by the United Nations Statistics Division for censuses do not cover content errors resulting from erroneous enumerations and omissions; thus they underestimate content errors. The “complete content error estimator” covers all content errors and is unbiased. It applies to any category of population. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 45-60 Issue: 1 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1738802 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1738802 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:45-60 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Younga Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younga Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Title: 아픔이 길이 되려면: 정의로운 건강을 찾아 질병의 사회적 책임을 묻다 [When Pain Should be the Way: Social Responsibility Committed to the Pursuit of Righteous Health] Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 61-62 Issue: 1 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1872944 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1872944 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:61-62 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elena Chernousova Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova Author-Name: Yaqin Feng Author-X-Name-First: Yaqin Author-X-Name-Last: Feng Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv Author-X-Name-First: Ostap Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov Author-Name: Joseph Whitmeyer Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Whitmeyer Title: Steady states of lattice population models with immigration Abstract: In a lattice population model where individuals evolve as subcritical branching random walks subject to external immigration, the cumulants are estimated and the existence of the steady state is proved. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior does not change under suitable perturbations of the main parameters of the model. An explicit formula of the limit distribution is derived in the solvable case of no birth. Monte Carlo simulation shows the limit distribution in the solvable case. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 63-80 Issue: 2 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767411 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767411 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:63-80 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yibeltal Adane Terefe Author-X-Name-First: Yibeltal Adane Author-X-Name-Last: Terefe Title: A sex-structured model for the transmission of trichomoniasis with possible reinfection Abstract: Trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted disease caused by an infection from the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis. A model of its transmission shows a backward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number $${{\mathcal R}_0}$$R0 is less than one. A stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium with the consequence that the disease may invade the population even when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \lt 1$$R0<1. The backward bifurcation is due to reinfection among the people who have recovered. In the absence of a backward bifurcation and when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \lt 1$$R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium has global asymptotic stability. In the absence of reinfection, the model has a unique global asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \gt 1$$R0>1. Contact rates are the major parameters in the persistence of the disease, compared to rates of recovery after treatment, infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals, and rates of reinfection. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 81-103 Issue: 2 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767416 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767416 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:81-103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tolga Zaman Author-X-Name-First: Tolga Author-X-Name-Last: Zaman Title: An efficient exponential estimator of the mean under stratified random sampling Abstract: Stratification of population is a probability sampling design used to increase the precision of estimation. An efficient exponential ratio estimator allows estimating the population mean in stratified random sampling using an auxiliary variable. Its expected bias, expected mean square error, and minimum mean square error are expressed. The conditions for which the estimator is more efficient are obtained. The proposed estimators under stratified random sampling have a lower mean square error than the ratio and the exponential estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 104-121 Issue: 2 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767420 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767420 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:104-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ekaterina Vl. Bulinskaya Author-X-Name-First: Ekaterina Vl. Author-X-Name-Last: Bulinskaya Title: Catalytic branching random walk with semi-exponential increments Abstract: In a catalytic branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice, with arbitrary finite total number of catalysts, in supercritical regime, when the vector coordinates of the random walk jump are assumed independent (or close to independent) to one another and have semi-exponential distributions, a limit theorem provides the almost sure normalized locations of the particles at the boundary between populated and empty areas. Contrary to the case of random walk increments with light distribution tails, the normalizing factor grows faster than linearly over time. The limit shape of the front in the case of semi-exponential tails is no longer convex, as it is in the case of light tails. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 123-153 Issue: 3 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767424 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767424 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:123-153 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Usman Shahzad Author-X-Name-First: Usman Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Name: Evrim Oral Author-X-Name-First: Evrim Author-X-Name-Last: Oral Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie Title: Estimation of the population mean by successive use of an auxiliary variable in median ranked set sampling Abstract: Median ranked set sampling is a sampling procedure used to estimate the population mean when the variable of interest is difficult or costly to measure. Two estimators for the population mean based on the minimum and maximum values of the auxiliary variable are built upon a successive use of ranks, second raw moments, and the linearly transformed auxiliary variable. The biases and the mean square errors of the estimators are derived. The proposed estimators under median ranked set sampling have higher efficiencies than the ratio, regression, difference-cum-ratio, and exponential estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 176-199 Issue: 3 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1816703 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1816703 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:176-199 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Haroon M. Barakat Author-X-Name-First: Haroon M. Author-X-Name-Last: Barakat Author-Name: El-Sayed M. Nigm Author-X-Name-First: El-Sayed M. Author-X-Name-Last: Nigm Author-Name: Islam A. Husseiny Author-X-Name-First: Islam A. Author-X-Name-Last: Husseiny Title: Measures of information in order statistics and their concomitants for the single iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution Abstract: The Fisher information matrix related to an order statistic and its concomitant used to order a bivariate random sample are obtained in the case of the shape-parameter vector of an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. They contain information conveyed by singly or multiply censored bivariate samples drawn from an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. Fisher information is computed for the mean of the exponential distribution in the concomitant of an order statistic. Shannon entropy in the order statistics and their concomitants based on the iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution are derived. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 154-175 Issue: 3 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767926 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767926 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:154-175 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guihua Hu Author-X-Name-First: Guihua Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Shushan Fan Author-X-Name-First: Shushan Author-X-Name-Last: Fan Author-Name: Jiwei Su Author-X-Name-First: Jiwei Author-X-Name-Last: Su Author-Name: Lujie Chi Author-X-Name-First: Lujie Author-X-Name-Last: Chi Author-Name: Jing Zhou Author-X-Name-First: Jing Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou Title: Estimation of erroneous enumerations in the census Abstract: Erroneous enumerations in the census include multiple enumerations and other errors. The linear estimator for estimating these errors currently used in several countries leads to underestimation when the sample used for the estimation comprises few of these errors. The “ratio estimator” of the total number of erroneous enumerations overcomes this difficulty. This is the one used by China for the 2020 census. Empirical analysis shows that the ratio estimator provides a smaller sampling error than the linear estimator. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 243-258 Issue: 4 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1855021 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1855021 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:243-258 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali Akbar Jafari Author-X-Name-First: Ali Akbar Author-X-Name-Last: Jafari Author-Name: Saeede Bafekri Author-X-Name-First: Saeede Author-X-Name-Last: Bafekri Title: Inference on stress-strength reliability for the two-parameter exponential distribution based on generalized order statistics Abstract: Stress-strength reliability is a measure to compare the lifetimes of two systems. It is inferred for the two-parameter exponential distribution using generalized order statistics first without constraint on the location and scale parameters, second when the scale parameters are equal. A generalized confidence interval, bootstrap confidence intervals, a Bayesian interval, and a highest posterior density interval are computed for the stress-strength parameter. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that generalized confidence intervals provide more accurate average lengths of confidence intervals and higher probabilities to contain the true value of the parameter. Application: Confidence intervals for the time to remission of 20 leukemic patients treated with one of two drugs are approximately the same in most generalized statistical models. In addition, the time to remission for patients with the first drug is tested to be shorter than for patients with the second drug. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 201-227 Issue: 4 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1872230 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1872230 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:201-227 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed El Fatini Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: El Fatini Author-Name: Mohamed El Khalifi Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: El Khalifi Author-Name: Richard Gerlach Author-X-Name-First: Richard Author-X-Name-Last: Gerlach Author-Name: Roger Pettersson Author-X-Name-First: Roger Author-X-Name-Last: Pettersson Title: Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy Abstract: In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes’ theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 228-242 Issue: 4 Volume: 28 Year: 2021 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:228-242 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato Author-X-Name-First: Alessia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato Author-Name: Federico Benassi Author-X-Name-First: Federico Author-X-Name-Last: Benassi Title: World population densities: convergence, stability, or divergence? Abstract: Taylor’s law states that the variance of population density in a given set of areas is a power function of its mean. When the exponent is equal to 2, the distribution of population densities between areas remains unchanged; when it is less than 2, the distribution converges toward the uniform distribution; when it is greater than 2, the densities become increasingly different from each other over time. The exponent takes the value 2 for East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia. It takes a value greater than 2 for sub-Saharan Africa because the ongoing demographic transition and intense urbanization are redistributing the population over the territories. The exponent is lower than 2 for the other regions of the world, which have completed their demographic transition and where the rural exodus has been completed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 17-30 Issue: 1 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1827854 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1827854 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:17-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Li Qi Author-X-Name-First: Li Author-X-Name-Last: Qi Author-Name: Min Hu Author-X-Name-First: Min Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Lujie Chi Author-X-Name-First: Lujie Author-X-Name-Last: Chi Author-Name: Jinpen Liao Author-X-Name-First: Jinpen Author-X-Name-Last: Liao Title: Estimated total number of second children based on three sources: the case of the city of Chengdu, Sichuan, China, for the year 2018 Abstract: The total number of registered second children may be underestimated due to repetitions, omissions, and counting errors. The three-source estimator provides a more accurate value. It is based on the household registration list, a sample survey list, and the hospital birth list. It avoids the correlation bias inherent in the estimator based on a sample survey and household registration or hospital births. Its expression is adapted to the estimation of the total number of second children. In the case of Chengdu, it allows for estimating the total number of second children at 99,633, which is substantially higher than the reported number of 96,105 obtained by counting registrations alone. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-16 Issue: 1 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1915638 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1915638 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:1-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Usman Shahzad Author-X-Name-First: Usman Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie Author-Name: Nursel Koyuncu Author-X-Name-First: Nursel Author-X-Name-Last: Koyuncu Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif Title: Variance estimation based on L-moments and auxiliary information Abstract: The presence of extreme values in a data set reduces the efficiency of variance estimators. L-moments are based on the ordered form of a random variable to estimate the variance of the population. The two variance estimators are used for calibration to a stratified random sampling design and relying on an auxiliary variable. The proposed estimators use the properties of L-moments, such as the L-mean, also called L-location, the L-standard deviation, also called L-scaling, and the L-coefficient of variation, which is a measure of variation. The use of these properties allows for providing better estimators. A simulation proves the better efficiency of these estimators. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 31-46 Issue: 1 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1949923 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1949923 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:31-46 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ezra Gayawan Author-X-Name-First: Ezra Author-X-Name-Last: Gayawan Author-Name: Olamide Seyi Orunmoluyi Author-X-Name-First: Olamide Seyi Author-X-Name-Last: Orunmoluyi Author-Name: Oyelola A. Adegboye Author-X-Name-First: Oyelola A. Author-X-Name-Last: Adegboye Title: Geostatistical patterns of comorbidity of diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and stunting among under-five children in Nigeria Abstract: Among children under five in Nigeria, in the year 2018, the prevalence of diarrhea was 13%, that of acute respiratory infections 3%, and that of stunting 37%. A shared-component model highlights geographic variations in the comorbidities of these diseases. The data are from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The majority of states in northern Nigeria presented clusters of higher risk for comorbidities of any pair of the three diseases. Compared with mothers with primary education or less, mothers with secondary education were 1.4 times less likely to have two or three of these diseases at the same time, and women with tertiary education 2.0 times less. Compared to childless women of the same age, mothers were 1.6 times less when aged 20–29, 1.9 times less when aged 30–39, and 2.0 times less when aged 40–49. Access to a protected water source reduced the risk by a factor of 1.3. Girls under age five were 1.2 times less likely than boys of that age to have two or three of these diseases at the same time. This factor was the same for breastfed children compared to those who were not breastfed. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 58-72 Issue: 2 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1942654 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1942654 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:58-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Igor Lazov Author-X-Name-First: Igor Author-X-Name-Last: Lazov Author-Name: Petar Lazov Author-X-Name-First: Petar Author-X-Name-Last: Lazov Title: Entropy-based estimation of the birth-death ratio Abstract: A population is modeled by a birth-death process in a finite state space. Its stationary distribution is indexed by its birth-death ratio. A sample of values taken by the population size has an elastic sample mean (mean of the observations), an additional sample mean (mean of the logarithms of the observations transformed by a given function), and a synchronizing sample mean (combination of the previous means). When the last two means are zero, then, by definition, information is linear in population size. This is only the case when the population size is geometrically distributed. Equalizing the entropy of a distribution to the entropy calculated on any sample involves the three sample means and allows for estimating the birth-death ratio. Only in the case of information linear in population size, this procedure reduces to maximum likelihood estimation, which involves only the elastic sample mean. The procedure is demonstrated on information that is no longer linear in population size, such as a binomial distribution of population size, where the last two means are not zero, but just equal, and a Pascal distribution and a Poisson distribution, where the last two means are neither zero nor equal. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-94 Issue: 2 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1988351 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1988351 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:73-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zofia Mielecka-Kubień Author-X-Name-First: Zofia Author-X-Name-Last: Mielecka-Kubień Author-Name: Mariusz Toniszewski Author-X-Name-First: Mariusz Author-X-Name-Last: Toniszewski Title: Estimation of illicit drug use among high school students in the Silesian voivodship (Poland) with the use of the randomized response technique Abstract: The prevalence of illicit drug use among high school students living in the Silesian voivodship (Poland) is estimated using either the random response techniques of forced response design or the Liu-Chow method. Respondents answer a sensitive question only with a certain probability, thus ensuring anonymity. These methods provide correct estimates of prevalence, unlike interviews based on anonymous questionnaires, which can lead to underestimate the prevalence. Compared with those obtained with anonymous questionnaires, the results obtained with the forced response method are that 10.7 times more high school students used the new psychoactive substances, 6.0 times more amphetamines, methamphetamines, and others, 3.1 times more heroin or morphine, and 1.6 times more marijuana or hashish. The Liu-Chow method provides an estimate of 10.7% of respondents who reported using new psychoactive substances, while the estimate by the anonymous questionnaire is only 1.5%. In the case of marijuana or hashish, the Liu-Chow method gives an estimate of 37.0% of users, while the estimate with anonymous questionnaires is only 22.0%. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 47-57 Issue: 2 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1893009 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1893009 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:47-57 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: catalog-resolver1775570553311997666.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004 Author-Name: Islam M. Elbaz Author-X-Name-First: Islam M. Author-X-Name-Last: Elbaz Title: Reduced oviposition period promotes blowfly population extinction in Nicholson’s model Abstract: Blowflies use open wounds or the accumulation of feces or urine in wool to lay their eggs. The larvae that emerge cause lesions in the host sheep, which can lead to death. They are found in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Nicholson’s model describes the population dynamics of the Australian blowfly (Lucilia Cuprina). It incorporates environmental variation. The extinction of these flies depends on the time to oviposition and the time between generations. The Lyapunov function, which is positive with a negative derivative, provides the condition for the stability of the equilibrium point: the oviposition period must be sufficiently short, because the shorter it is, the more it favors the extinction of the species. The zero solution is the only equilibrium point, synonymous with the extinction of the population. Another species of blowfly, Lucilia Sericata, also attacks sheep in Australia. Both blowflies are ectoparasites of warm-blooded vertebrates, particularly domestic sheep. These two blowflies are related to share same mitochondrial DNA sequences, although the two species are distinct. Presumably to avoid competition between them. the egg-laying time of each species does not occur at the same time of year: L. Sericata prefers warmer months, thus in summer, while L. Cuprina is mainly active in autumn. Laying of eggs in different months allows avoiding competition between these species. This also binds them together. A sufficiently small egg-laying delay then leads to the rapid extinction of both blowfly populations, provided they do not adapt. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 158-171 Issue: 3 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2051367 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2051367 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:158-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: catalog-resolver7911635046989533208.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004 Author-Name: Hanis Nasir Author-X-Name-First: Hanis Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir Author-Name: Auni Aslah Mat Daud Author-X-Name-First: Auni Aslah Author-X-Name-Last: Mat Daud Title: Population models of diabetes mellitus by ordinary differential equations: a review Abstract: Population models of diabetes using ordinary differential equations are reviewed. They are refined by incorporating non-diabetics, prediabetics, low awareness prediabetics, awareness prediabetics, and awareness programs. However, they may involve products and fractions that do not reflect what is known about reality or ignore the presence of time lags in the development of diabetes. No model takes into account the limited medical treatments considered. This review shows the need to consider finer specifications of interactions, time delays, and budget constraints in epidemiological modeling of diabetes. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 95-127 Issue: 3 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1959817 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1959817 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:95-127 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: catalog-resolver1704847622881012368.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004 Author-Name: Branda Goncalves Author-X-Name-First: Branda Author-X-Name-Last: Goncalves Author-Name: Thiery E. Huillet Author-X-Name-First: Thiery E. Author-X-Name-Last: Huillet Title: Keeping random walks safe from extinction and overpopulation in the presence of life-taking disasters Abstract: Recurrence and transience conditions are made explicit in discrete-time Markov chain population models for which random stationary growth alternates with disastrous random life-taking events. These events either have moderate stationary magnitudes or lead to an abrupt population decline. The probability of their occurrence may or may not depend on the population size. These conditions are based on the existence or not of a “weak” carrying capacity, where “weak” means that the carrying capacity can be exceeded, temporarily. In this framework, the population is threatened with extinction, an event whose probability is expressed, as well as the law of the time remaining until this deadline. On the other hand, the population is also threatened by overpopulation, an event whose time to reach a given threshold is expressed, as well as the difference between the population size and the carrying capacity. The theory is that of extreme values for Markov chains and is based on the control of the spectral properties of the northwest truncation of the transition matrix of the original Markov chain with life-taking disasters. The article presents an extension to the case where the process of life-taking disasters is no longer geometric and to the case where the probability of occurrence of a disaster depends on the population size. Both the time to extinction and the time to a given threshold have geometrically decaying distribution tails. The use of the extremal Markov chain in the calculation of the time to overpopulation is innovative. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 128-157 Issue: 3 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1976476 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1976476 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:128-157 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_1997466_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Kanisa Chodjuntug Author-X-Name-First: Kanisa Author-X-Name-Last: Chodjuntug Author-Name: Nuanpan Lawson Author-X-Name-First: Nuanpan Author-X-Name-Last: Lawson Title: Imputation for estimating the population mean in the presence of nonresponse, with application to fine particle density in Bangkok Abstract: Air pollution in Bangkok, Thailand, is mainly due to fine particles emitted in exhaust gases. However, many data on fine particle concentrations are missing, a fact which may bias the statistics. Exponential-type imputation minimizing the mean square error allows for estimating the missing values of these concentrations and provides an estimate with smaller mean square error of the mean concentration levels. The bias and mean square error of the proposed estimator are calculated. Simulation shows that the relative efficiency is 5% higher up to 50 observations, 12% higher for 100 observations, and 25% higher for 200 observations. Application to the measurement of fine particle concentration in Bangkok yields a mean square error of 0.73 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 47.40 micrograms per cubic meter, while the mean square error by the best alternative estimator selected is 0.90 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 48.20 micrograms per cubic meter. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 204-225 Issue: 4 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1997466 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1997466 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:204-225 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_1983323_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Christine Brasic Author-X-Name-First: Christine Author-X-Name-Last: Brasic Author-Name: Latimer Harris-Ward Author-X-Name-First: Latimer Author-X-Name-Last: Harris-Ward Author-Name: Fabio A. Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio A. Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Author-Name: Carlos Bustamante-Orellana Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Bustamante-Orellana Author-Name: Jordy Cevallos-Chavez Author-X-Name-First: Jordy Author-X-Name-Last: Cevallos-Chavez Author-Name: Leon Arriola Author-X-Name-First: Leon Author-X-Name-Last: Arriola Title: Lead toxicity in the bald eagle population of the Great Lakes region Abstract: Ingestion of lead-based ammunition is one of the leading causes of the mortality of bald eagles. Their primary source is unretrieved carrion contaminated with lead from hunters’ ammunition. Lead toxicity can have serious clinical consequences, including reduced fertility and consumption. A model with ordinary differential equations describes the dynamics of available contaminated carrion and the progression of eagles through stages of lead poisoning. Nonnegative solutions exist and equilibrium points are stable for certain parameter ranges. Sensitivity analysis shows that the bald eagle population in the Great Lakes region is primarily dependent on the rate of entry of contaminated carrion in the environment, more so than on retrieval or on the rate of treatment of eagles. Estimates of financial costs of each of these three measures show that the most effective measure is to find a substitute for lead cartridges. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 173-203 Issue: 4 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1983323 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1983323 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:173-203 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2051988_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Haydar Koç Author-X-Name-First: Haydar Author-X-Name-Last: Koç Author-Name: Caner Tanış Author-X-Name-First: Caner Author-X-Name-Last: Tanış Author-Name: Tolga Zaman Author-X-Name-First: Tolga Author-X-Name-Last: Zaman Title: Poisson regression-ratio estimators of the population mean under double sampling, with application to Covid-19 Abstract: Poisson regression is used to deal with count data. The Poisson regression ratio estimator of the population mean is extended from single to double sampling. This is made possible by the provision of the population mean of an auxiliary variable. The mean square errors of the proposed estimators are expressed up to the first order. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the proposed double-sampling Poisson-regression ratio estimator has a lower mean square error than the double-ratio and the single-sampling estimator. For Covid-19, the minimum mean square errors yielded by the proposed estimator of the total number of cases are 0.095 cases per day and 67.8 cases, compared with 0.112 cases per day and 84.8 cases with the double-ratio estimator. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 226-240 Issue: 4 Volume: 29 Year: 2022 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2051988 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2051988 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:226-240 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_139117_J.xml processed with: repec_from_tfjats.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL Author-X-Name-First: NOËL Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL Author-Name: ROBERT CHUNG Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT Author-X-Name-Last: CHUNG Title: Applied Mathematical Demography Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 223-228 Issue: 4 Volume: 12 Year: 2005 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500391349 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480500391349 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:223-228 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_1996822_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Shuo Wang Author-X-Name-First: Shuo Author-X-Name-Last: Wang Author-Name: Wangxue Chen Author-X-Name-First: Wangxue Author-X-Name-Last: Chen Author-Name: Meng Chen Author-X-Name-First: Meng Author-X-Name-Last: Chen Author-Name: Yawen Zhou Author-X-Name-First: Yawen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou Title: Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution using maximum rank set sampling with unequal samples Abstract: Maximum ranked set sampling with unequal samples is a sampling procedure used to reduce the error of ranking of observations and increase the efficiency of statistical inference. It is used for maximum likelihood estimation of the location and shape parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution. Its asymptotic efficiency is at least 1.4 times higher than those of estimators based on simple random sampling. It is useful in reliability studies and in Bayesian statistics involving the inverse Gaussian distribution. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1996822 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1996822 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:1-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2075166_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Guihua Hu Author-X-Name-First: Guihua Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Ting Wen Author-X-Name-First: Ting Author-X-Name-Last: Wen Author-Name: Yuhuan Liu Author-X-Name-First: Yuhuan Author-X-Name-Last: Liu Title: Determining the sample size of a post-enumeration survey: The case of China, 2020 Abstract: Post-enumeration surveys are used to assess the quality of censuses. To set up such a survey, the size of the sample to be surveyed must be determined. If the sample design requires several strata, the design effect, which is the ratio of the variance of the two-source estimator to the variance of the single-source estimator for a given sample size, allows an indirect calculation. Another method is to use the sampling variance formula for a given sample size. The sample must have a sufficient total number of geographic subdivisions that are too small. A complete calculation of the sample size is implemented on an example from the 2020 Chinese post-enumeration survey. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 22-52 Issue: 1 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2075166 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2075166 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:22-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2029074_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil Author-X-Name-First: Noël Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil Author-Name: Elena Fursa Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Fursa Title: Seasonal fluctuations of age classes, with application to South Russia, 1896-1897 Abstract: Seasonal variations in age class sizes involve those of births and those of mortality across ages. They affect censuses and, consequently, rates involving numbers by age. As their analytical expression becomes inextricable, a simulation of aging cohorts by months of age shows that mortality oscillations for human populations are not sufficient to prevent age classes from oscillating approximately like associated births, contrary to what previous literature suggests. The amplification converges after damping, and the level reached depends on the amplification of mortality oscillations relative to births between 0 and 6 months of age. The damping rate depends mainly on the amplification of the mortality of 0–5 months compared to births. The application to 1896 South Russian data shows that age class sizes vary during the year like the births of the associated cohorts and that the numbers counted at the census vary strongly according to the month of the census. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 53-72 Issue: 1 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2029074 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2029074 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:53-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2055870_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Siraj Muneer Author-X-Name-First: Siraj Author-X-Name-Last: Muneer Author-Name: Alamgir Khalil Author-X-Name-First: Alamgir Author-X-Name-Last: Khalil Author-Name: Javid Shabbir Author-X-Name-First: Javid Author-X-Name-Last: Shabbir Title: Multivariate ratio exponential estimators of the population mean under stratified double sampling Abstract: To estimate the population mean when sampling a heterogeneous population and in the absence of a priori information on auxiliary variables, exponential-ratio multivariate estimators are associated under double stratified sampling with two auxiliary variables. Their biases and mean square errors are expressed and simulated. These mean square errors are smaller (the efficiencies are higher) than those of the sample mean estimator and those of other ratio estimators when the correlation between the study and the auxiliary variables exceeds 0.1 in absolute value. In particular, the proposed estimators are more efficient for low correlations between the study and the auxiliary variables. The gain in efficiency reaches a factor of 230.4% on an empirical dataset where the study variable is weakly correlated with each of the two auxiliary variables, and 182.1% on another empirical dataset where it is strongly correlated. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 122-141 Issue: 2 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2055870 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2055870 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:122-141 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2043067_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Liangping Qi Author-X-Name-First: Liangping Author-X-Name-Last: Qi Author-Name: Guowei Zong Author-X-Name-First: Guowei Author-X-Name-Last: Zong Title: Positive piecewise continuous quasi-periodic solutions to logistic impulsive differential equations Abstract: To prove the existence of piecewise continuous solutions to a logistic quasi-periodic differential system with impulses (whose coefficients have rationally independent periods), this system is divided into a differential equation and a difference equation. The quasi-periodicity of a function is proved by showing that this function is the uniform limit of a series of trigonometric polynomials with a finite total number of frequencies. The asymptotically stable quasi-periodic positive and piecewise continuous solution is proved to exist and to be unique. Quasi-periodic variation of the environment leads to a quasi-periodic growth of the population size in the sense that the rationally independent frequencies of the system are also frequencies of the quasi-periodic solution. The positive solutions have a repeated behavior similar to that of the quasi-periodic solution for a sufficiently long time due to asymptotical stability. The separation of the continuous-discrete system into a differential equation and a difference equation is a method of proving the existence of a quasi-periodic solution with perturbed coefficients of the impulsive system. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 95-121 Issue: 2 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2043067 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2043067 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:95-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2140561_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Elena Chernousova Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv Author-X-Name-First: Ostap Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov Title: Branching random walk in a random time-independent environment Abstract: In a lattice population model, particles move randomly from one site to another as independent random walks, split into two offspring, or die. If duplication and mortality rates are equal and take the same value over all lattice sites, the resulting model is a critical branching random walk (characterized by a mean total number of offspring equal to $$1$$1). There exists an asymptotical statistical equilibrium, also called steady state. In contrast, when duplication and mortality rates take independent random values drawn from a common nondegenerate distribution (so that the difference between duplication and mortality rates has nonzero variance), then the steady state no longer exists. Simultaneously, at all lattice sites, if the difference between duplication and mortality rates takes strictly positive values with strictly positive probability, the total number of particles grows exponentially. The lattice $${{\mathbb Z}^d}$$Zd includes large connected sets where the duplication rate exceeds the mortality rate by a positive constant amount, and these connected sets provide the growth of the total population. This is the supercritical regime of branching processes. On the other hand, if the difference between duplication and mortality rates is almost surely negative or null except when it is almost surely zero, then the total number of particles vanishes asymptotically. The steady state can be reached only if the difference between duplication and mortality rates is almost surely zero. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 73-94 Issue: 2 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2140561 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2140561 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:73-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2133850_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Mehdi Bazyar Author-X-Name-First: Mehdi Author-X-Name-Last: Bazyar Author-Name: Einolah Deiri Author-X-Name-First: Einolah Author-X-Name-Last: Deiri Author-Name: Ezzatallah Baloui Jamkhaneh Author-X-Name-First: Ezzatallah Baloui Author-X-Name-Last: Jamkhaneh Title: Parameter estimation for the Moore-Bilikam distribution under progressive type-II censoring, with application to failure times Abstract: The Moore-Bilikam distribution is convenient for survival analysis. The estimation of its parameters and its reliability function is performed by maximum likelihood, expectation-maximization, stochastic expectation-maximization, and the Bayesian method. The data are progressively censored of type II (samples are removed randomly from the experiment). Simulation shows that the expectation-maximization estimator of the parameter and the Bayesian-shrinkage estimator of the reliability function are the most efficient (with the minimum mean square error) when they are based on the Weibull and the Pareto distributions, which are specific cases of the Moore-Bilikam distribution. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimations using the Moore-Bilikam distribution under type-II progressive censoring allow for fitting empirical failure times of an insulating fluid between two electrodes and the resistance of single carbon fibers. The associated reliability functions are estimated by each method. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 143-179 Issue: 3 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2133850 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2133850 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:143-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2139072_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Usman Shahzad Author-X-Name-First: Usman Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad Author-Name: Nadia H. Al-Noor Author-X-Name-First: Nadia H. Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Noor Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie Title: Robust estimation of the population mean using quantile regression under systematic sampling Abstract: Regression ratio mean estimators of a study variable $$Y$$Y are defined as the coefficients provided by the ordinary least-squares regression of $$Y$$Y on a given auxiliary variable $$X$$X. They can be improved by using the coefficient of variation and the coefficient of kurtosis of $$X$$X. The influence of outliers on the estimates of the population mean of $$Y$$Y is neutralized by calculating robust regression coefficients, obtained by the method of either least absolute deviations, Huber-M, Huber-MM, Hampel-M, Tukey-M, or adjusted least squares. These robust coefficients are used to estimate the population mean of $$Y$$Y under simple random sampling. Extension to systematic sampling—which is a probability sampling in which every element of the population has equal probability of inclusion to be drawn—using the coefficients provided by quantile regression—whose coefficients result from the minimization of the sum of absolute deviations rather than from the square deviations from the regression line—requires ratio estimators of the population mean of $$Y$$Y. The mean square errors of these estimators are expressed analytically. If the quantile regression coefficient is greater than the ratio of the covariance between the study and the auxiliary variables to the variance of the auxiliary variable minus a function of the mean or the coefficient of variation, skewness, or kurtosis of $$X$$X and $$Y$$Y, then the proposed robust quantile regression mean estimator of $$Y$$Y is more efficient than the ratio estimators in the presence of outliers under systematic sampling. The reason is that these estimators only use regression coefficients and not the ratio between the population mean and sample means of the auxiliary variable $$X$$X. The aforementioned condition occurs with the values of the case study. For empirical data of 176 forest strips, the proposed estimate of the volume of timber is over 30% more efficient than the ratio estimates based on quantile regression coefficients. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 195-207 Issue: 3 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2139072 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2139072 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:195-207 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2145790_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Natthapat Thongsak Author-X-Name-First: Natthapat Author-X-Name-Last: Thongsak Author-Name: Nuanpan Lawson Author-X-Name-First: Nuanpan Author-X-Name-Last: Lawson Title: Bias and mean square error reduction by changing the shape of the distribution of an auxiliary variable: application to air pollution data in Nan, Thailand Abstract: The proposed estimator of the population mean is based on a modification of the shape of the distribution of an auxiliary variable. If the theoretical correlation between the study and the auxiliary variables is less than a term that is proportional to the coefficient of variation of the auxiliary variable divided by the coefficient of variation of the study variable, then the modification of the distribution of the auxiliary variable reduces the bias and the mean square error of the estimator. A simulation confirms the analytical results. Application to air pollution data in Nan, Thailand, shows that on average, the biases of the estimators based on the modified auxiliary variable are reduced by 70% to 98% and the mean square errors by 91% to 100% compared to the estimators based on the unmodified auxiliary variable. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 180-194 Issue: 3 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2145790 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2145790 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:180-194 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2165338_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Layla Basri Author-X-Name-First: Layla Author-X-Name-Last: Basri Author-Name: Driss Bouggar Author-X-Name-First: Driss Author-X-Name-Last: Bouggar Author-Name: Mohamed El Fatini Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: El Fatini Author-Name: Mohamed El Khalifi Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: El Khalifi Author-Name: Aziz Laaribi Author-X-Name-First: Aziz Author-X-Name-Last: Laaribi Title: Extinction and persistence in a stochastic Nicholson’s model of blowfly population with delay and Lévy noise Abstract: Existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution are proved for a stochastic Nicholson’s equation of a blowfly population with delay and Lévy noise. The first-order moment of the solution is bounded and the mean of its second moment is finite. A threshold quantity $${{\cal T}\!_j}$$Tj depending on the parameters is involved in the drift, the diffusion parameter, and the magnitude and distribution of jumps. The blowfly population goes extinct exponentially fast when $${{\cal T}\!_j} \lt 1$$Tj<1. It persists when $${{\cal T}\!_j} \gt 1.$$Tj>1. The case $${{\cal T}\!_s} = 1$$Ts=1 does not allow for knowing whether the population goes extinct or not. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 209-228 Issue: 4 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2165338 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2165338 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:209-228 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2191562_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Héctor Saib Maravillo Gomez Author-X-Name-First: Héctor Saib Author-X-Name-Last: Maravillo Gomez Author-Name: Gilberto Calvillo Vives Author-X-Name-First: Gilberto Author-X-Name-Last: Calvillo Vives Author-Name: Erick Treviño Aguilar Author-X-Name-First: Erick Author-X-Name-Last: Treviño Aguilar Title: The population sizes of Mexican cities follow a power-law distribution Abstract: Geography, for example because of the presence of rivers, ravines, or peaks, can subdivide a city. These subdivisions raise the question of identifying the area occupied by the city, of deciding whether or not they are aggregates of distinct built-up areas, and whether or not geographical separations are merely asperities in a certain continuum of built-up areas. The city as a union of administrative units allows for jurisdictional practices, but for public policy in health for example, identification by built-up areas is more operational. The study of urban populations thus requires that cities be circumscribed on objective criteria. Circumscribing a city requires knowledge of commuting flows, but in the absence of this piece of information, circumscribing it relies on the fact that it is made up of close built-up areas. This is reflected in the intersection of the convex envelopes of the spatial extent of these built-up areas. The algorithm treats coordinates of the vertices of polygons encompassing built-up areas provided by the Census Bureau for the United States or the National Institute of Statistics and Geography for Mexico. It allows for computing whether convex hulls of polygons intersect or not. If they do, then the built-up areas circumscribed by these polygons are part of the same city. The result is that cities now reflect the geographic extent of urban areas rather than their administrative areas. With this delineation method applied to Mexico’s 2020 census data, the population sizes of urban areas with at least 2,126 inhabitants follow a power law, with exponent 0.954 (standard deviation = 0.016), whereas this is no longer the case when considering only the administrative extents of cities with more than 15,000 inhabitants. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 249-268 Issue: 4 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2191562 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2191562 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:249-268 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2155415_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Federico Benassi Author-X-Name-First: Federico Author-X-Name-Last: Benassi Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato Author-X-Name-First: Alessia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato Author-Name: Meng Xu Author-X-Name-First: Meng Author-X-Name-Last: Xu Title: Daily Covid-19 infected population densities in Italian provinces follow Taylor’s law Abstract: Taylor’s law states that the spatial variance of the population density varies as the power function of the mean population density. This law is tested on daily Covid-19 infection density for five periods between February 25, 2020 and March 15, 2021. The Italian provinces are grouped by geography into three ensembles. A simultaneous-equation model accounts for correlations between the ensembles, between Italian provinces within each ensemble, and for temporal autocorrelations. The selected periods show ensembles with all Taylor’s law slopes below 2 (reflecting State interventions at the national level), or all above 2 (reflecting interventions at the local level), or some ensembles above while others were below. Slope of Taylor’s law and average density trend indicate whether the infection density is highly concentrated in a few provinces (when the slope is greater than 2 with increasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with decreasing density) or spread evenly among all provinces in an ensemble (when the slope is greater than 2 with decreasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with increasing density), which allows the government and epidemiologists to design disease control policies for targeted provinces and ensembles in Italy. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 229-248 Issue: 4 Volume: 30 Year: 2023 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2155415 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2155415 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:229-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2251852_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857 Author-Name: Mohammad Hossein Zarinkolah Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Hossein Author-X-Name-Last: Zarinkolah Author-Name: Hadi Jabbari Author-X-Name-First: Hadi Author-X-Name-Last: Jabbari Author-Name: Mohammad Mehdi Saber Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Mehdi Author-X-Name-Last: Saber Title: Optimal estimators of the population mean of a skewed distribution using auxiliary variables in median ranked-set sampling Abstract: In an asymmetric population, individuals are concentrated toward one tail of the distribution. An estimator of the population mean in this asymmetric case is constructed on the basis of median ranked-set sampling, that is, the population is divided into subsets of equal size and the intersections of these sets depend on the chosen order of ranking according to a known auxiliary variable. Ranking individuals according to this auxiliary variable should approximate their ranking with respect to the unknown variable of interest. This procedure is a cost-effective way of selecting the sample when the variable of interest is unknown. To do this, the auxiliary variable must be at least weakly correlated with the variable of interest. The proposed estimator extends that constructed with extreme ranked-set sampling, whose principle is to divide the population into subsets whose intersections depend on the extreme values of the auxiliary variable. The mean square error of the estimator is expressed analytically. A simulation allows for comparing the proposed estimator with estimators based on simple random sampling and with those based on sampling sets of extreme values. A simulation shows that when the response variable is correlated with both auxiliary variables, even if these correlations are weak, around 0.5 in absolute value, then the mean square error of the proposed estimator is at least 175% lower than the mean square error of estimators based either on simple random or on extreme ranked-set samplings. A first application focuses on household incomes in the Iranian provinces of Fars and Khuzestan in 2022, first with the single gross income, which is the total income that an individual or household earns before tax as auxiliary variable and then with the two auxiliary variables of total gross household income and wages paid year-round to heads of households through the banking network. In this application, the mean square error of the proposed estimator with median ranked-set sampling is at least 60% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings. In the application of the physical preparation score with runners’ track records as an auxiliary variable concerning 160 Iranian athletes in 2022 with sample sizes of 6, 8, 10, 25, and 30, the mean square error of the proposed estimator with median ranked-set sampling is at least 50% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings. In the third application of the COVID-19 mean mortality rate in 2022 in the USA, Iran, Turkey, and Germany, with sample sizes of 6, 8, 10, 25, and 30, estimations of the mean mortality rate are based on new cases. In each of the four countries, the mean square error of the proposed estimator under median ranked-set sampling is at least 60% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 62-85 Issue: 1 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2251852 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2251852 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:1:p:62-85 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2244358_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857 Author-Name: Yanhua Huang Author-X-Name-First: Yanhua Author-X-Name-Last: Huang Author-Name: Guihua Hu Author-X-Name-First: Guihua Author-X-Name-Last: Hu Author-Name: Di Wu Author-X-Name-First: Di Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Renjing Zheng Author-X-Name-First: Renjing Author-X-Name-Last: Zheng Title: Estimation of the net error rate of population size in China’s household registration Abstract: A combined three-source estimator is used to estimate the net error rate of population size in household registration. It avoids the bias in the two-source estimator due to the fact that the registration of an individual on one list affects his or her registration on another list. It makes better use of frequencies than the ordinary three-source estimator. It yields an estimated net error rate that is closest to 1% of error. The combined three-source estimator combines missing-cell estimators of ordinary three-source estimators working on the contingency table of presence or absence in the census population list, the post-enumeration survey population list, and the household population list. Matching of these three registration lists is filled into the seven non-missing cells of the contingency table. The missing-cell estimator involved in the combined three-source estimator is based on the missing-cell estimators of the ordinary three-source estimators. It requires that the three population lists fully register the post-strata population. In the case of sample registration, it is based on the sampling weights and population sizes of the sampled small census areas. It provides a lower mean square error than the ordinary three-source estimator, which itself provides a lower mean square error than the two-source estimator. The estimated 0.96% net under-registration rate of population size for the country as a whole in household registration is close to the 1.00% rate found in the rectification of household registration carried out by China’s Ministry of Public Security between May 15, 2010, and September 30, 2010. Despite the bias coming from the residual heterogeneity of individuals in each post-stratum, as the sample can only accommodate a limited total number of post-strata, the combined three-source estimator should yield a smaller mean square error than the ordinary three-source estimator of the net error rate of population size in household registration. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 40-61 Issue: 1 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2244358 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2244358 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:1:p:40-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2225349_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857 Author-Name: Yajie Tian Author-X-Name-First: Yajie Author-X-Name-Last: Tian Author-Name: Yingna Liang Author-X-Name-First: Yingna Author-X-Name-Last: Liang Author-Name: Wenhao Gui Author-X-Name-First: Wenhao Author-X-Name-Last: Gui Title: Inference and optimal censoring scheme for a competing-risks model with type-II progressive censoring Abstract: For statistical inference of competing risks under type-II progressive censoring, lifetimes are modeled by an inverted exponential Rayleigh distribution, which allows the use of a non-monotonic hazard function. Maximum-likelihood estimators for all parameters exist and are unique. The Newton-Raphson algorithm and maximum stochastic expectation each provide estimates. Confidence intervals result from the Fisher matrix and the asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimators. For small samples, the Bootstrap estimators of the parameters do not need to be asymptotically normal. In addition, the Monte Carlo method with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and importance sampling allow for Bayesian estimation, with the associated highest posterior-density intervals. The Bayesian method takes account of prior information, contrary to the frequentist method. The Bootstrap method improves the precision of the estimation, especially in the case of small sample sizes. The estimated range obtained by Bootstrap is between 20% and 60% smaller than that obtained by maximum likelihood. Frequentist and Bayesian estimations using the inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution under type-II progressive censoring allow for fitting empirical mouse mortality data and obtaining parameter estimates of this distribution. A quantile-dependent criterion and a quantile-independent criterion are used to determine the optimal censoring and to design the experiment. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 1-39 Issue: 1 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2225349 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2225349 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:1:p:1-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2301868_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Carlos Bustamante Orellana Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Bustamante Orellana Author-Name: Jordan Lyerla Author-X-Name-First: Jordan Author-X-Name-Last: Lyerla Author-Name: Aaron Martin Author-X-Name-First: Aaron Author-X-Name-Last: Martin Author-Name: Fabio Milner Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Author-X-Name-Last: Milner Author-Name: Elisha Smith Author-X-Name-First: Elisha Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Title: Estimating the structure by age and sex of the US sexually active population Abstract: A model combines demographic data provided by the United States Census Bureau for 2021 with survey data on sexual activity from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the structure by age and sex of the sexually active population in the United States. It also provides the proportions of newly sexually active people by age and sex. The model is based on percentages of sexually active people by age and sex, and on an ordinary differential equation formalizing a “learning process” for the years 2009 to 2019. The data produced fit well with the empirical data for each age and sex. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 105-115 Issue: 2 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2024.2301868 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2024.2301868 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:2:p:105-115 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2301865_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Hassan S. Bakouch Author-X-Name-First: Hassan S. Author-X-Name-Last: Bakouch Author-Name: Fatemeh Gharari Author-X-Name-First: Fatemeh Author-X-Name-Last: Gharari Author-Name: Kadir Karakaya Author-X-Name-First: Kadir Author-X-Name-Last: Karakaya Author-Name: Yunus Akdoğan Author-X-Name-First: Yunus Author-X-Name-Last: Akdoğan Title: Fractional Lindley distribution generated by time scale theory, with application to discrete-time lifetime data Abstract: The fractional Lindley distribution is used to model the distribution of perturbations in count data regressions, which allow for dealing with widely dispersed data. It is obtained from the non-fractional Lindley distribution by replacing the support $\mathbb{T} = {\mathbb{R}^ + }$T=R+ by ${\mathbb{T}} = {\mathbb{N}}\backslash \{ 0\} $T=N∖{0} and applying time scale theory, whose ambition is to unify the theories of difference equations and differential equations, integral and differential calculus, and the calculus of finite differences. It thus provides a framework for the study of dynamical systems in discrete-continuous time. Delta moments are discrete-time Laplace transforms of the frequency function of the fractional Lindley distribution. The parameter of the fractional Lindley distribution is estimated by least squares, weighted least squares, maximum likelihood, moments, and proportions. The moment estimator always exists, so that delta moments result from the nabla Laplace transform of the frequency function of the fractional Lindley distribution. The maximum likelihood estimates have the least mean-square errors. The proportion method works satisfactorily only when the mode of the distribution is null and the proportion of zeros is high. A simulation allows for quantifying the mean-square errors associated with the estimators. A count regression based on the fractional Lindley distribution with data on the total number of stays after hospital admission among U.S. residents aged 65 and over shows that the Akaike information criteria is significantly lower than with the uniform Poisson and Poisson regressions. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 116-146 Issue: 2 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2024.2301865 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2024.2301865 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:2:p:116-146 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: GMPS_A_2264662_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Islam M. Elbaz Author-X-Name-First: Islam M. Author-X-Name-Last: Elbaz Author-Name: Mohamed A. Sohaly Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed A. Author-X-Name-Last: Sohaly Author-Name: Hamdy A. El-Metwally Author-X-Name-First: Hamdy A. Author-X-Name-Last: El-Metwally Title: Optimizing criterion for the upper limit of the signal response of brain neurons Abstract: In a model of signal transmission between brain neurons, the Lyapunov functions associated with the “no signal” solution are positive and have a negative derivative with respect to the response. The solution is stable for a response range. Noise added to signal transmission and response enhances stability by allowing the system to escape tricky equilibria. It amplifies weak signals, improves detection and distinction of significant signals from background noise, and generates appropriate and adaptive responses to detected signals. It causes random fluctuations, allowing more parameter values to be tried out and thus optimizing the behavior of the system, enabling it to transmit and respond effectively to signals in the presence of the variability inherent in biological networks. The deterministic model is thus enhanced by its stochastic extension. Journal: Mathematical Population Studies Pages: 87-104 Issue: 2 Volume: 31 Year: 2024 Month: 04 X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2264662 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2264662 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:2:p:87-104