Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicet-Chenaf Dalila Author-X-Name-First: Nicet-Chenaf Author-X-Name-Last: Dalila Author-Name: Rougier Eric Author-X-Name-First: Rougier Author-X-Name-Last: Eric Title: Is Middle East and North Africa different? A comparative analysis of growth and structural change in and outside MENA Abstract: By using general method of moments-system estimation on a panel of developing countries over the period 1984–2011, we contrast the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ growth pattern with that of middle-income countries from other regions. Three complementary dimensions of growth driver are assessed: accumulation, structural change and institutions. Our comparative analysis shows that MENA economies sharply contrast with other middle-income emerging economies with respect to two main dimensions: (1) the sectoral structure of production and (2) the institutional environment. We show that, during the last three decades, the MENA region has exhibited a specific pattern of growth featuring a low pace of structural change and high corruption levels, which may have hindered highly productive job creation, and eventually bred massive discontent in the region. The assumption of the complementary effect of the accumulation, institutional and structural growth determinants is also supported by our empirical estimations. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 177-197 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1225453 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1225453 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:177-197 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yacine Belarbi Author-X-Name-First: Yacine Author-X-Name-Last: Belarbi Author-Name: Lylia Sami Author-X-Name-First: Lylia Author-X-Name-Last: Sami Author-Name: Saïd Souam Author-X-Name-First: Saïd Author-X-Name-Last: Souam Title: The effects of institutions and natural resources in heterogeneous growth regimes Abstract: The dependence on natural resources is the subject of a wide debate in the analysis of economic growth in rentier States. Up to now, there is no consensus about the way natural resources could impede or boost the economic development of such endowed countries. The same mitigated results are found concerning the interaction between institutions and growth. In this paper, we examine the combined interaction effects of natural resource dependence and the quality of institutions on economic growth by using a panel threshold regression methodology. We show that the effect of natural resource dependence on economic growth becomes positive when the quality of institutions improves. Moreover and contrary to many precedent results in the literature, it appears that an increase in natural resource dependence wipes out the positive effect of institutional quality on growth. Indeed, a positive variation of the quality of institutions does not necessarily lead to a positive variation in economic growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 248-265 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1225454 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1225454 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:248-265 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ahmad Reza Jalali-Naini Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad Reza Author-X-Name-Last: Jalali-Naini Author-Name: Mohammad Amin Naderain Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Amin Author-X-Name-Last: Naderain Title: Evaluations of different monetary policy regimes for a small developing open economy Abstract: Motivated by recent experiences in Iran, this paper incorporates structural characteristics that reinforce the reluctance of central banks to commit to free floating exchange rates (‘fear of floating’) into optimal policy formulation to determine the extent of exchange rate involvement in monetary policy. We utilize a small stylized model of a small developing open economy calibrated for the Iranian economy to compare the performance of alternative policy regimes, namely flexible domestic inflation targeting, flexible consumer price index inflation targeting, and real exchange targeting in handling higher openness, higher exchange rate pass through, and financial vulnerability. Evaluation of the above alternative policy regimes and relative stability of key macroeconomic variables are conducted through an optimal Ramsey policy approach. The results suggest that, in financially vulnerable small open developing economies, consumer price IT may not be the optimal policy and giving a higher positive weight to the real exchange rate in the central bank’s loss function and allowing policy reaction to this variable via the instrument rate can result in a lower social loss and more stability for the key macroeconomic variables, and hence a superior policy regime. Policy evaluation results based both on stabilization and welfare measures obtained in this paper imply that for the developing commodity (oil) exporting economies with high degrees of financial vulnerability and relatively high pass-through rates, an IT policy framework in which the real exchange rate is also targeted is a superior regime. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 266-290 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1225455 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1225455 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:266-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jeffrey B. Nugent Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey B. Author-X-Name-Last: Nugent Author-Name: Malgorzata Switek Author-X-Name-First: Malgorzata Author-X-Name-Last: Switek Author-Name: Fengyu Wu Author-X-Name-First: Fengyu Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Title: Socio-political attitudes across the world: to what extent are they affected by one’s religion, its importance, majority status and relative income? Abstract: This paper relates four aspects of an individual’s religion (the religion itself, its importance to the individual, and their interactions with each other, whether or not that religion is the dominant one in the country and with the individual’s relative income) to six important socio-political attitudes. Two of these reflect socio-economic objectives (the responsibilities that government should assume, and adherence to the norm of not cheating on taxes), and the other four different political means of achieving these objectives (willingness to engage in political activity, to defend freedom of speech, to ‘give people more say’ and to maintain order). The primary objective is to shed light on the political economy and governance issues in countries like those of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) where religious, economic and political differences are strongly interrelated, and already giving rise to social tension and in some cases political instability. It makes use of data on over 215,000 individuals in 90 countries from Waves 2–6 of the World Value Surveys (WVS). Once the various interactions between religious affiliation and related characteristics are taken into consideration, the relationships between the various different religious affiliations and each of the six attitudes under study are shown to vary in ways that cast doubt on the validity of existing stereotypes of these relations. The results also provide useful insights into the direction that socio-economic policies are likely to take in the years ahead in different MENA countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 291-328 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1225456 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1225456 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:291-328 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Title: Women, work and welfare in the Middle East and North Africa: the role of socio-demographics, entrepreneurship and public policies Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 358-361 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1226056 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1226056 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:358-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shantayanan Devarajan Author-X-Name-First: Shantayanan Author-X-Name-Last: Devarajan Title: The Middle East economies in times of transition Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 362-364 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1226059 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1226059 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:362-364 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: Editorial team update Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 365-365 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1226061 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1226061 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:365-365 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Atif Awad Author-X-Name-First: Atif Author-X-Name-Last: Awad Author-Name: Ishak Yussof Author-X-Name-First: Ishak Author-X-Name-Last: Yussof Title: International trade and unemployment: evidence from selected Arab countries Abstract: Empirical studies examining whether exposure to international trade creates or destroys jobs produce inconclusive findings. The present study seeks to examine the impact of international trade policies on unemployment for 10 Arab countries over the period of 1991–2012 using a theoretical framework incorporating trade and search-generated unemployment. In addition to the trade policy measurements, the present study controls for variables that represent macroeconomic policies; demographic change (population); governance, institutional quality and labour market regulation. Using different proxies for trade policies, the results of the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) show that trade liberalization policies have a positive impact on unemployment in the long run, but a negative impact in the short run. The finding supports contemporary calls to participate in international trade to facilitate job creation. However, further studies are required to identify the specific channels through which trade policies can affect unemployment in the Arab region. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 198-229 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1226466 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1226466 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:198-229 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdullah Almounsor Author-X-Name-First: Abdullah Author-X-Name-Last: Almounsor Author-Name: Sami Mensi Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Mensi Title: The implications of market structure and bank efficiency on social welfare: the case of the Saudi Arabian banking system Abstract: This paper estimates the social costs of market power in the Saudi Arabia banking system over the period 2001–2012. It also tests the so-called Quiet Life Hypothesis, which postulates a negative effect of market power on bank management efficiency (X-efficiency), cost-efficiency and profit-efficiency. The Lerner index for all Saudi banks averaged 0.66, indicating that the Saudi Arabian Banking sector is far from being competitive. Using the Harberger’s triangle methodology, the social welfare cost attributable to market power for the whole period is estimated at 0.82% of GDP. However, the research found that market power in the Saudi banking sector is a significant determinant of bank inefficiency, thereby supporting the Quiet Life Hypothesis. The paper suggests important policy implications to improve banking competition and reduce welfare losses associated with market power. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 329-357 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1226467 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1226467 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:329-357 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Farrukh Iqbal Author-X-Name-First: Farrukh Author-X-Name-Last: Iqbal Author-Name: Youssouf Kiendrebeogo Author-X-Name-First: Youssouf Author-X-Name-Last: Kiendrebeogo Title: The determinants of child mortality reduction in the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: Although child mortality rates have declined all across the developing world over the past 40 years, they have fallen the most in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We investigate the causes of this through an econometric model that differs from previous studies in using the change in child mortality, rather than its level, as the dependent variable. We show that the process of child mortality decline has been characterized by convergence, whereby countries with higher levels of initial child mortality have experienced faster declines than those with lower levels. In addition, we find that public spending on health, growth rates of income and levels of caloric adequacy are robust determinants of the change in child mortality over time. Neither initial mortality status nor caloric adequacy is likely to remain as important for the MENA region in the future as they have been in the past. The region has been benefitting less and less from the convergence momentum conferred by high initial child mortality as its mortality levels have declined over time and this will continue into the future. With regard to caloric adequacy, the region is unlikely to experience significant improvements in the future as it has already achieved a high level of food sufficiency. Accordingly, most countries in the region must look to achieving more rapid income growth and higher rates of appropriately targeted public spending on health in order to achieve further child mortality reductions in the future. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 230-247 Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1230831 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1230831 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:230-247 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Board Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 2 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1239803 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1239803 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yousef Daoud Author-X-Name-First: Yousef Author-X-Name-Last: Daoud Author-Name: Khalid Sekkat Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Sekkat Title: Cross-country comparative analysis of SMEs’ TFP in MENA region: A firm-level assessment Abstract: This paper examines the difference in the productivity of small and large firms in a select group of countries. The countries were chosen from a wide spectrum of development levels. Belgium and Poland are from the ‘North’ and Egypt, Morocco and occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) are developing countries from the ‘South’. The analysis of total factor productivity (TFP) shows that differences in productivity between small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large firms depend on the industry and on the country. SMEs tend to be less productive than larger firms within the same industry; it appears also that SMEs in the South tend to exhibit lower levels of productivity than in the North irrespective of the industry. Further analysis of southern countries shows that the following variables are significant in explaining the productivity differences between small and large firms: the age of the firm, the share of exports in a firm’s output, the intensity of competition within an industry and the technological intensity within an industry. The paper concludes with some recommendations for TFP improvement of Southern SMEs. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 55-83 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1288473 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1288473 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:55-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Imene Guetat Author-X-Name-First: Imene Author-X-Name-Last: Guetat Author-Name: Dorsaf Sridi Author-X-Name-First: Dorsaf Author-X-Name-Last: Sridi Title: Institutional quality effect on remittances in MENA region Abstract: International workers’ remittances have increased over the years to become a main source of income for developing countries. Workers’ remittances have surpassed foreign direct investment and foreign aid. They proved to be particularly resilient during the latest global crisis, unlike other capital flows that fell sharply or even turned negative especially for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Given the magnitude, and the stability of remittances, this article aims to test the effects of institutional characteristics via the composite risk index on remittances inflows in the MENA region via the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) for a sample of 15 MENA countries over the period 1984–2011. We highlight a negative relationship between remittances and the composite risk index implying an increase of remittances when risk increases for the specific case of MENA countries. This result indicates an altruistic motivation of the MENA migrant’s decision to remit. Altruism means that the utility of the migrant depends on the income of his family in the country of origin. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 84-100 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1288474 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1288474 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:84-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sevil Acar Author-X-Name-First: Sevil Author-X-Name-Last: Acar Author-Name: Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı Author-X-Name-First: Ahmet Atıl Author-X-Name-Last: Aşıcı Title: Nature and economic growth in Turkey: what does ecological footprint imply? Abstract: This study investigates the income–environment relationship in Turkey by examining the components of the ecological footprint indicator within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. Using co-integration techniques for the 1961–2008 period, we find an inverted U-shaped, hence EKC-type, relationship only between production footprint and income. Consumption, import and export footprints are found to be monotonically increasing with income, which suggests that Turkey tends to export the negative consequences of its consumption by importing rather than producing domestically the environmentally harmful products. We also find that imported footprint is not enough to cover the biocapacity deficit in Turkey, which results in a continuous decline in domestic biocapacity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 101-115 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1288475 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1288475 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:101-115 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mahmoud Haddad Author-X-Name-First: Mahmoud Author-X-Name-Last: Haddad Author-Name: Sam Hakim Author-X-Name-First: Sam Author-X-Name-Last: Hakim Title: Are banks effective in the economic recovery from the Arab Spring? Abstract: We analyze the role of banks in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, pre- and post-revolution, and find that the volume of credit they offered to the private sector was neutral to real economic growth. Supported by a recent IMF study which ranks banking regulation and supervision ‘poor’ or ‘below-average’ in four out of the five countries under study, we attribute the limited effectiveness of their banks to government intervention in credit allocation and pricing. Our results cast doubt on the banks’ ability to facilitate an economic recovery, and suggest that a monetary policy focused on bank credit alone may not be successful. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 116-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1288476 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1288476 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:116-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Doaa Akl Ahmed Author-X-Name-First: Doaa Akl Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Author-Name: Mamdouh A. M. Abdelsalam Author-X-Name-First: Mamdouh A. M. Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelsalam Title: Modelling and forecasting inflation in Egypt: univariate and multivariate approaches Abstract: Inflation forecasts are highly important in the actual management of monetary policy implying that central banks must acquire accurate inflation forecasts. Given the high risks involved in inflation, models that account for uncertainty are expected to do well in terms of forecasting power. The current paper focuses on estimating 12 different specifications including 10 univariate models and 2 multivariate models. The univariate models are generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) and threshold autoregressive generalized conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (TARCH-M) models assuming three different distributions for the error term as well as an extension of the GARCH-M model that allows for time-varying higher order moments. Furthermore, we employed three models that take into consideration the possibility of structural shifts, namely, Markov switch, threshold autoregressive and time-varying coefficients (TVCs) models. The multivariate models are the vector- half operator model and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - vector autoregression model (DSGE-VAR). Results indicate that TVCs model and time-varying higher moments outperform other competing models. Finally, forecasts are improved by generating combined forecasts using equal weights, Bayesian model averaging and dynamic model averaging. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 127-159 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1293361 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1293361 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:127-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ines Ayadi Author-X-Name-First: Ines Author-X-Name-Last: Ayadi Author-Name: Salma Zouari Author-X-Name-First: Salma Author-X-Name-Last: Zouari Title: Out-of-pocket health spending and equity implications in Tunisia Abstract: Using data from 2000, 2005 and 2010 national household budget and consumption surveys, this paper examines the scope of catastrophic out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures in Tunisia and their distribution. It analyses their evolution since 2000 in relation to policy reforms in Tunisia especially since a new national health insurance fund (Caisse Nationale d’Assurance Maladie (CNAM)) became effective in 2007. The paper assesses the catastrophic dimension of OOP payments by calculating their incidence and their intensity at several thresholds and by analyzing their distribution throughout concentration indices. Estimating a probit model, the paper explores the determinants of catastrophic payments and identifies the characteristics of households coping with higher risk of catastrophic health expenditures. Finally, questioning whether the catastrophic payments have impoverishing effects on households, the paper estimates the percentage of households who move below the poverty line when accounting for OOP health payments. The paper concludes that the lasting importance of health OOP expenditures in Tunisia, their catastrophic dimension and their impoverishing effect make it necessary to look for a better allocation of the existing resources through more efficient financing mechanisms and better institutional arrangements. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1293362 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1293362 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:1-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lire Ersado Author-X-Name-First: Lire Author-X-Name-Last: Ersado Author-Name: Jérémie Gignoux Author-X-Name-First: Jérémie Author-X-Name-Last: Gignoux Title: Egypt: inequality of opportunity in education Abstract: The paper examines the levels and trends in access to education and educational outcomes across generations of Egyptian youth. Examination of four cohorts of individuals aged 25–29 shows that, although basic education has democratized, some inequities in access to general secondary and college education have persisted over the past 25 years. The analysis of test scores from TIMSS and national examinations in the late 2000s shows that more than a quarter of learning outcome inequality is attributable to circumstances beyond the control of a student, such as parental education, socioeconomic background, and birthplace. The high level of overall achievement inequality observed makes inequities in learning opportunities between Egyptian youth high compared to other countries in absolute levels. Moreover, learning gaps among pupils from different backgrounds appear at early grades. High and unequal levels of household expenditures in private tutoring and tracking into vocational and general secondary schools that depend on high stakes examination substantially contribute to unequal learning outcomes. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 22-54 Issue: 1 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1294826 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1294826 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:1:p:22-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hanan Nazier Author-X-Name-First: Hanan Author-X-Name-Last: Nazier Author-Name: Racha Ramadan Author-X-Name-First: Racha Author-X-Name-Last: Ramadan Title: Ever married women’s participation in labor market in Egypt: constraints and opportunities Abstract: This research studies the individual, households and community determinants affecting Egyptian woman’s decision to enter the labor force and affecting her employment status. Using the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey ELMPS, 2012, five probit models were estimated for ever-married women. The first model is about Egyptian women’s decision to participate in the labor force. Once she is in the labor force, the second model studies the determinants of being employed. Among employed women, three employment types are tackled in the remaining three models; being employed in the public sector (model 3), being a private wage worker (model 4) and being self-employed (model 5). As found in the literature, the results show that there is a strong dependence between woman’s education and employment type. Moreover, the results confirm the role played by the mother’s employment status in her daughter’s labor force participation. Finally, the community characteristics play a significant role in affecting women’s decision in entering the labor force. Once society accepts the integration of women in the labor market and not only being responsible for care and house work, individual characteristics and households characteristics influenced her decision of which employment type to choose. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 119-151 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1443605 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1443605 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:119-151 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Melani Cammett Author-X-Name-First: Melani Author-X-Name-Last: Cammett Author-Name: Nisreen Salti Author-X-Name-First: Nisreen Author-X-Name-Last: Salti Title: Popular grievances in the Arab region: evaluating explanations for discontent in the lead-up to the uprisings Abstract: In the wake of the Arab uprisings, analysts have advanced multiple hypotheses about the grievances at the root of mass mobilization, yet little empirical research examines their validity, particularly at the micro-level. We use survey data from 2009 to 2010 from Arab countries that experienced mass protests to assess the validity of dominant approaches. Cross-national variation in patterns of grievances lends support to claims that diffusion processes rather than a common set of concerns fuelled the uprisings. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 64-96 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1443606 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1443606 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:64-96 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wael Mousa Author-X-Name-First: Wael Author-X-Name-Last: Mousa Author-Name: Jehad S. Aldehayyat Author-X-Name-First: Jehad S. Author-X-Name-Last: Aldehayyat Title: Regional efficiency of healthcare services in Saudi Arabia Abstract: This study aims to estimate the regional efficiency of healthcare services in Saudi Arabia. A non-parametric methodology, data envelopment analysis (DEA), is applied to evaluate the relative efficiency of 13 Saudi regions in 2014 by using multiple regional inputs and outputs to characterize healthcare provision. This study provides a unique measurement of Saudi regional efficiency since most of the previous studies that applied DEA in Saudi Arabia focused on public hospitals or primary medical services, which work under the supervision of the Ministry of Health. This is one of the first studies in developing and Arab countries in general, and in Saudi Arabia in particular, which focuses on an interregional level, as it divides each region into public and private sectors. The empirical results show that efficiency differs across the selected regions and between the private and public sectors. In general, less developed regions show a relatively high level of efficiency whereas others, such as Makkah and the Eastern regions, seem to be the least efficient regions in both sectors. The study revealed that the Riyadh region, which employs a disproportionately large amount of health resources in comparison with other regions, is efficient in both sectors. The empirical study also finds evidence of the potential to improve health outcomes by ensuring a sufficient level of healthcare resources in the inefficient regions that are lagging behind significantly. Finally, in some regions the public sector was efficient whereas the private sector was not, and vice versa. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 152-174 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1443607 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1443607 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:152-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Salim M. Araji Author-X-Name-First: Salim M. Author-X-Name-Last: Araji Author-Name: Hamid Mohtadi Author-X-Name-First: Hamid Author-X-Name-Last: Mohtadi Title: Natural resources, incentives and human capital: reinterpreting the curse Abstract: We show that natural resource rents when distributed as lump-sum transfers to individuals distort the incentive to invest in tertiary education. Developing an overlapping generations model for the case of natural resource rents we show that if transfers from natural resource wealth occur when a country's technology level is marginal, the chance that the country will be caught in a low-level equilibrium trap is high. Using data for 46 countries for which data are available over time, we find strong empirical support for the model in both dynamic panel estimates and cross-sectional estimates. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-30 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1443992 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1443992 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:1-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ishac Diwan Author-X-Name-First: Ishac Author-X-Name-Last: Diwan Author-Name: Zafiris Tzannatos Author-X-Name-First: Zafiris Author-X-Name-Last: Tzannatos Author-Name: Tarik Akin Author-X-Name-First: Tarik Author-X-Name-Last: Akin Title: Debunking myth: economic values in the Arab World through the prism of opinion polls Abstract: Using World Value Survey opinion poll data, we empirically characterize the economic values and norms held by individuals in the Arab world, in comparison to values held in the rest of the world. We find that, contrary to some common beliefs, there are many values that predispose citizens of Arab countries to be part of a market economy, including a high level of work ethics, comfort with competition and the work of markets, and a high level of economic motivation. Moreover, it is unlikely that the fear of income redistribution has taxed investment, as opinions among Arab citizens are similar to average global opinions. However, we also find a few values that are inimical to the workings of a market-led economy, and in particular, a low preference for thrift, low levels of acceptance of women's work outside home, and low trust in state institutions combined with a perception of high levels of corruption both in government and in business. We compare these preferences between citizens of Arab countries vs. citizens of Muslim-majority countries around the world, and of oil-exporting countries, and find that these groups exhibit related but distinct preference maps. We also ask whether these values are distributed differently among different types of individuals (with differing education, age, gender, and levels of religiosity) in the Arab world and in other countries around the world. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 31-63 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1443993 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1443993 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:31-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Belal Fallah Author-X-Name-First: Belal Author-X-Name-Last: Fallah Title: The economic response of rural areas to local supply shock: evidence from the Occupied West Bank Abstract: As the Second Intifada broke out at the end of 2000, Israel severely restricted entry for Palestinians to its labor market, forcing a great section of commuters to return to their local labor markets. This paper examines the economic effect of the return commuting on non-commuters in rural areas of the Occupied West Bank. Utilizing place-of-work, repeated cross-section data, the results show that returned commuting has negative repercussions. Specifically, wages decrease for workers with the same skill type (low skilled). The results also provide evidence that favors the crowd-out effect hypothesis. The estimated probability of unemployment increases for non-commuters with disproportionate effect for job seekers relative to those reportedly employed. Consistent with this result, increases in return commuting prolong unemployment duration for the low skilled. The outcome of this paper helps understand how rural labor markets may respond to labor supply shocks. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 97-118 Issue: 1 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1446235 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1446235 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:97-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mesbah Fathy Sharaf Author-X-Name-First: Mesbah Fathy Author-X-Name-Last: Sharaf Author-Name: Ahmed Shoukry Rashad Author-X-Name-First: Ahmed Shoukry Author-X-Name-Last: Rashad Author-Name: Elhussien Ibrahim Mansour Author-X-Name-First: Elhussien Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Mansour Title: Son Preference and Child Under nutrition in the Arab Countries: Is There a Gender Bias against Girls? Abstract: Although son preference has been demonstrated in the MENA region with different manifestations and at several phases of human development, the literature remains sparse as far as studies examining the early childhood phase are concerned. The current study aims to explore the presence of a gender bias in child nutrition status and its association with maternal son preference in three Arab countries; namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen. Child nutritional status is measured using the Height-for-Age z-score (HAZ). To examine the presence of gender bias across the entire nutritional distribution, we utilized a quantile regression framework. We use data from the most recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey on a nationally representative sample of children aged 0–4 years. Descriptive statistics show that 21.5% of the mothers demonstrate son preference in Yemen compared to 19.10% in Jordan and 13.26% in Egypt. Results of the baseline OLS model demonstrate a robust pro-girl nutrition bias in the three countries. However, results of the quantile regression model show that this pro-girl nutrition bias is only prevalent at the lower segment of the conditional HAZ distribution for Jordan and Yemen and is prevalent across the whole conditional HAZ distribution for Egypt. We also find no statistically significant association between maternal son preference and gender bias in child nutrition in the three countries. Although son preference is manifested in several phases of human development in the MENA region, the current study finds no nutritional bias against girls in the examined countries at early childhood. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 205-230 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:205-230 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilker Domac Author-X-Name-First: Ilker Author-X-Name-Last: Domac Author-Name: Gultekin Isiklar Author-X-Name-First: Gultekin Author-X-Name-Last: Isiklar Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Title: On the potential and Limitations of monetary policy in Turkey Abstract: The use of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity around the globe and in Turkey has been receiving a flurry of attention. Calls for lower interest rates have become louder as the country’s private driven growth has slowed down. However, monetary policy faces the challenges of maintaining external stability and reviving domestic conditions, which could necessitate conflicting interest rate policies. To determine which goals are most suitable for monetary policy, one must understand the effects of monetary policy and its transmission channels to the macro economy. Our empirical results suggest that monetary policy in Turkey has fairly limited power to affect output growth, even in the short-run. We find that external factors – such as shocks to risk aversion and global growth – have a much stronger impact on economic activity in Turkey. These results seem to be in line with the strand of the literature, which highlights the importance of global financial cycles and argues that exchange rate flexibility alone is not enough to guarantee monetary autonomy in a world of large capital flows. Consequently, our empirical findings corroborate the notion that monetary policy should focus on its overriding objective of price stability, given Turkey’s greater exposure to supply shocks and pro-cyclicality of international finance. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 231-249 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:231-249 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rohinton P. Medhora Author-X-Name-First: Rohinton P. Author-X-Name-Last: Medhora Title: Policy choices in the 21st century – where to start? Abstract: Based on the author’s keynote talk at the ERF’s 25th anniversary conference in Kuwait City (March 10–12, 2019), this paper outlines the research and policy dimensions of the fast-rising intangibles economy. The key features of such economic structures are – the centrality of (mostly proprietary) intellectual property; high upfront fronts for firms but near-zero marginal costs of production if successful; first-mover advantage especially if backed up by standard-setting; and handsome rewards for strategic behavior. There is no single route to success in such a world; in fact many successful countries have had ex ante daunting challenges not unknown among ERF countries. The ethos that drives the ERF has never been more essential than it is today. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 299-312 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:299-312 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Collier Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Collier Title: Ideas, networks and jobs: rebasing growth in the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: Oil rents are set to wane. In the MENA Region, the legacy of four decades of dependence on oil is an economy that is not generating enough opportunities for productive employment. This paper set out a policy agenda for gradual change that is cumulatively transformative. Directly, productivity can be increased by encouraging clusters of firms capable of innovation, linked to vocational training that equips a workforce with the skills that firms need. But the socio-political transformation from a rent-seeking economy to a skill-based economy is more complex, requiring both cultural and institutional change. This cannot be planned in detail: a transformation is a unique event subject to radical uncertainty. It calls for a process of rapid social learning based on experimentation. As the society adapts, new opportunities open, and the next steps clarify. I give examples of how an adaptable framework has been built elsewhere. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 290-298 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:290-298 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lobna M. AbdelLatif Author-X-Name-First: Lobna M. Author-X-Name-Last: AbdelLatif Author-Name: Mohamed Ramadan Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Ramadan Author-Name: Sarah A. Elbakry Author-X-Name-First: Sarah A. Author-X-Name-Last: Elbakry Title: How gender biased are female-headed household transfers in Egypt? Abstract: In this paper, we claim that the policy of targeting female-headed households’ (FHHs) may generate bias against women in male-headed households (MHHs) who may be more poverty-constrained. Targeting FHHs may have the merit of clear targeting; however, it doesn’t address the feminization phenomenon of poverty; instead, it presents unequal opportunities for women in other families by less favouring them. We argue that proper targeting could be derived based on the number of women in families. The study applied a Gender-Based Poverty Detection Model to provide a good detection of household poverty and show that the vulnerable characteristics of females could be more influenced by the general household’s poverty than females’ headed households. Model results showed that not all FHHs are poor, and that some de jure MHHs include a large number of poor females. This means that targeting only de jure FHHs might result in resource leakage to the non-poor and under-coverage of poor de facto FHHs and poor females in MHHs. The analysis asserts that female headship is not always a correlate of poverty in Egypt. An important correlate, however, is the share of female members in the household. This raises questions about the effectiveness of social assistance and poverty alleviation programmes in Egypt in targeting female poverty. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 165-183 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:165-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla Author-X-Name-First: Ebaidalla M. Author-X-Name-Last: Ebaidalla Author-Name: Mohammed Ehaj Mustafa Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Ehaj Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Title: Determinants and impact of household's out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure in Sudan: evidence from urban and rural population Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of the out-of-pocket health expenditure and catastrophic health spending incurred by Sudanese households. It also investigates the effect of out-of-pocket health expenditure on poverty incidence among households. The study uses 2009s National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) data. The results show that factors such as household’s income, educational achievement of household’s head, household size, number of household’s members over 65 years old are the most important factors influencing out-of-pocket health expenditure. The results also indicate that the presence of elderly and children among the household’s members increases the risk of incurring catastrophic health expenditure. Moreover, the empirical results document that out-of-pocket health expenditure pushes a considerable portion of Sudanese households into poverty. Finally, the paper ends with some recommendations that aim to assist policymakers in designing an appropriate health financing strategy to protect households against the risk of out-of-pocket health expenditure and to reduce its impoverishment impact. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 184-204 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:184-204 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: George Naufal Author-X-Name-First: George Author-X-Name-Last: Naufal Author-Name: Michael Malcolm Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Malcolm Author-Name: Vidya Diwakar Author-X-Name-First: Vidya Author-X-Name-Last: Diwakar Title: Armed conflict and child labor: evidence from Iraq Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between armed conflict intensity and child labor using household level data from Iraq and taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setup. Armed conflict intensity is measured by the number of deaths related to conflict, and child labor is separated by type of work: economic and household. After controlling for individual and household characteristics that determine child labor, we find that armed conflict intensity is associated with a higher likelihood of entry into economic work sufficient to qualify as child labor, but is not associated with entry into household child labor. However, conflict intensity is associated with marginal increases in hours worked for both types of activity. We also explore gender differences. These results provide further evidence of the long-term costs of war on households. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 250-267 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:250-267 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Imad A. Moosa Author-X-Name-First: Imad A. Author-X-Name-Last: Moosa Title: Growth and environmental degradation in MENA countries: methodological issues and empirical evidence Abstract: A large number of studies on the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve for MENA countries have been conducted, producing (as expected) a mixed bag of results. Several econometric issues are considered with reference to estimates of the EKC for Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. These issues include the order of the polynomial, the validity of the log–log specification, cointegration and spurious correlation, missing variables, and the sensitivity and fragility of the results. It is concluded that the most serious issue is the sensitivity of the results to model specification and other factors, which is not considered in the MENA studies of the EKC. Robust results are produced with respect to the order of polynomial, estimation method and measurement of the income variable. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 268-289 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:268-289 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Author-X-Name-First: Klaus Author-X-Name-Last: Schmidt-Hebbel Title: Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 313-314 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1675020 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1675020 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:313-314 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Author-Name: Hanan Nazier Author-X-Name-First: Hanan Author-X-Name-Last: Nazier Author-Name: Racha Ramadan Author-X-Name-First: Racha Author-X-Name-Last: Ramadan Author-Name: Atiyeh Vahidmanesh Author-X-Name-First: Atiyeh Author-X-Name-Last: Vahidmanesh Author-Name: Sami Zouari Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Zouari Title: Estimating poverty and inequality in the absence of consumption data: an application to the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: Measures of consumption and poverty are critical metrics of the wellbeing of individuals, their households, communities, and countries. Collecting data on consumption and poverty is challenging and costly, and therefore these measures are only infrequently available in survey data. In this paper, we demonstrate how information commonly available in household surveys can be used to impute consumption, even recovering the original variance, which is crucial for assessments of poverty and inequality. Our application adds consumption estimates to the publicly available Labor Market Panel Surveys for Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia, which can act as a valuable resource for researchers interested in the intersection of inequality, poverty, and a host of labor market behaviors in the Middle East and North Africa. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-29 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583493 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583493 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:1-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mehdi Ben Braham Author-X-Name-First: Mehdi Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Braham Author-Name: Mohamed Ali Marouani Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Marouani Title: Pension systems contribution determinants: a cross sectional analysis on Tunisia Abstract: This article presents an analysis of pension coverage based on contribution density. This approach is justified by the fact that coverage rates do not give a clear indication of effective contribution and particularly cannot explain the low level of pensions in the private sector observed in many developing countries. After computing the contribution density of private sector workers in Tunisia, an econometric analysis based on administrative data identifies the determinants of this ratio. Results show that contribution density of the most vulnerable groups is very low compared to other workers. Women are more likely to contribute to the pension system and contribution density decreases with firms’ size. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 30-48 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583507 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583507 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:30-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Salim Araji Author-X-Name-First: Salim Author-X-Name-Last: Araji Author-Name: Vladimir Hlasny Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Hlasny Author-Name: Layal Mansour Ichrakieh Author-X-Name-First: Layal Author-X-Name-Last: Mansour Ichrakieh Author-Name: Vito Intini Author-X-Name-First: Vito Author-X-Name-Last: Intini Title: Targeting debt in Lebanon: a structural macro-econometric model Abstract: This paper estimates a structural macro-econometric model of the Lebanese economy to simulate the implications of accumulated debt changes on GDP and other economic indicators, and to project the growth–fiscal nexus for the six years following the last year for which national statistics are systematically available, 2015–2020. To these ends, historical and up-to-date national accounts data for the years 1992–2014 were painstakingly collected from individual government agencies, and an economic framework with five macroeconomic blocks (macroeconomic; government; price; monetary and financial sector; and external accounts) was constructed. Our simulations predict that additional deficits and more debt accumulation would deter growth, while fiscal consolidation such as paying off government debt is growth promoting. We use the prospect of future natural gas revenues as a potential external source to pay off Lebanese national debt – rather than as a collateral for additional borrowing – in order to promote sustainable economic growth. These results have important implications for the fiscal position and macroeconomic policy in Lebanon as well as other transitional, potentially resource-rich, open economies, where debt servicing is crowding out other growth promoting government spending activities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 75-104 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583508 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583508 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:75-104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Burhan Can Karahasan Author-X-Name-First: Burhan Can Author-X-Name-Last: Karahasan Author-Name: Fırat Bilgel Author-X-Name-First: Fırat Author-X-Name-Last: Bilgel Title: Spatial distribution of healthcare access and utilization: do they affect health outcomes in Turkey? Abstract: This paper examines the link between healthcare access/utilization and health outcomes in Turkey within a spatial framework. Our initial set of findings highlight an overall duality in health indicators which is getting stronger once a spatial dimension is included. Specifically we find wider spatial dichotomy for health outcomes relative to access and utilization measures. Finally once we consider unobserved heterogeneity, spatial spillovers and spatial variability; our results pinpoint a non-robust link between healthcare access/utilization measures and health outcomes which works better among the already developed regions of Turkey. Overall, our combined results indicate an ongoing polarization of health-based human capital development which coincides with local variations of the relationship between healthcare access/utilization and outcomes in Turkey. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 124-163 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583509 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583509 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:124-163 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali Enami Author-X-Name-First: Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Enami Author-Name: Nora Lustig Author-X-Name-First: Nora Author-X-Name-Last: Lustig Author-Name: Alireza Taqdiri Author-X-Name-First: Alireza Author-X-Name-Last: Taqdiri Title: Fiscal policy, inequality, and poverty in Iran: assessing the impact and effectiveness of taxes and transfers Abstract: Using the Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey for 2011/12, we estimate the impact and effectiveness of various components of Iran’s fiscal system on reducing inequality and poverty. We utilize the marginal contribution analysis to determine the impact of each component, and we introduce newly developed indicators of effectiveness to calculate how well various taxes and transfers are operating to reduce inequality and poverty. We find that the fiscal system reduces the poverty-head-count-ratio by 10.5 percentage points and inequality by 0.0854 Gini points. Transfers are generally more effective in reducing inequality than taxes while taxes are especially effective in raising revenue without causing poverty to rise. Although transfers are not targeted toward the poor, they reduce poverty significantly. The main driver is the Targeted Subsidy Program (TSP), and we show through simulations that the poverty reducing impact of TSP could be enhanced if resources were more targeted to the bottom deciles. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 49-74 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583510 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583510 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:49-74 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Saqib Sharif Author-X-Name-First: Saqib Author-X-Name-Last: Sharif Title: How foreign investors influence stock markets? The Saudi Arabian experience Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of foreign institutional investors on valuation, liquidity and volatility in the Saudi stock exchange for the post-liberalization period. Saudi regulators allowed the foreign investment community to invest in the Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) in June 2015. Firstly, the paper finds a positive change in abnormal returns in the three-year post-liberalization period compared to the three-year non-liberalization period (pre-period), suggesting that the entry of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) benefited security valuation. Further, the higher valuation result is consistent with the prediction of standard international asset pricing models, that stock market liberalization may reduce the liberalizing country’s cost of equity capital by allowing for risk sharing between domestic and foreign agents. Secondly, contrary to the regulators/policymakers’ intention and empirical evidence, the liquidity proxies document mixed evidence. Lastly, this study finds mixed evidence in the price volatility measures. However, the volatility and liquidity finding suggests that the presence of foreign institutional investors is not the source of excess volatility or high turnover on local bourses. Overall, the evidence, on average, shows some signs of improvement for different market efficiency measures during the post-liberalization period compared to the pre-liberalization period. The less than expected improvement in Tadawul during the post-period implies that the Saudi financial regulator’s incentive of opening the TASI for QFIIs coincides with economic vulnerabilities for the Kingdom, stringent QFIIs regulation and weak investor protection laws. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 105-123 Issue: 1 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1583511 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1583511 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:105-123 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yasmine M. Abdelfattah Author-X-Name-First: Yasmine M. Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfattah Author-Name: Hala Abou-Ali Author-X-Name-First: Hala Author-X-Name-Last: Abou-Ali Author-Name: John Adams Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Adams Title: Population dynamics and CO2 emissions in the Arab region: an extended STIRPAT II model Abstract: Many Arab countries have been developing in a fast pace over the last two decades. This is now seen as putting considerable pressure on the natural environment through population growth, ecosystem stress and resource extraction. The potential for climate change arising from increasing carbon dioxide emissions threatens the likelihood of a more sustainable development model being achieved in many of these countries. The paper deals with Arab countries’ population-environment nexus with respect to climate change interactions. The paper adopts the STIRPAT II model, which measures the effect of population, wealth, technology and, institution quality on the environment. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is adopted to measure the environmental impact. Both the static panel models and the dynamic heterogeneous panel models were employed to test the concept of ecological elasticity in the Arab world. The results show that the most efficient way for the Arab countries to minimize carbon emissions is to reduce population, affluence, energy intensity and enhance the institution quality. However, the Arab countries are currently on a trajectory of growing population and affluence. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 248-271 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1519998 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1519998 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:248-271 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oubenal Mohamed Author-X-Name-First: Oubenal Author-X-Name-Last: Mohamed Title: Crony interlockers and the centrality of banks: the network of Moroccan listed companies Abstract: In this paper, we study crony capitalism through the lens of Moroccan listed companies and the role of the financial sector. We first highlight the role of banks in the history of Moroccan capitalism from the setting up of the French protectorate over Morocco to the dominance of some major family groups. Using a network analysis of board members of the Moroccan listed companies we confirm the centrality of finance compared to other sectors. We also measure the relational proximity to demonstrate that each cluster of the four main holding families has at least one financial company. Finally, we argue that crony interlockers, who are members of royal foundations and represent an institutional investor or a holding family that owns a bank and/or an insurance company, are the most central actors in the network of listed companies. Our contribution to crony capitalism in MENA analyses the politics of finance in a neoliberal and peripheral country such as Morocco. Boone and Henry [(2004). Neoliberalism in the Middle East and Africa: Divergent banking reform trajectories, 1980s to 2000. Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, 42(3), 356–392] had described the banking sector in Morocco as a private oligopoly. Here, we provide evidence that the monarchy and its entourage are capturing corporate governance instruments such as board membership to control economic activities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 175-194 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1519999 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1519999 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:175-194 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philipp Dees Author-X-Name-First: Philipp Author-X-Name-Last: Dees Author-Name: Georgeta Vidican Auktor Author-X-Name-First: Georgeta Author-X-Name-Last: Vidican Auktor Title: Renewable energy and economic growth in the MENA region: empirical evidence and policy implications Abstract: We estimate the impact of an increase of installed capacity for electricity generation from renewable sources and from increasing renewable electricity generation on economic growth in the MENA region, using a neoclassical growth function that includes capital, labor and energy use as additional input factors. Our working hypothesis is that there could be a negative impact from renewable electricity on growth, given the high initial investments associated with alternative energy technologies. We could not prove this hypothesis and even found some evidence for a positive relation between renewable electricity and growth, mainly for renewable electricity generation; however, causality remains unclear. The results hold for several robustness checks. We conclude that investing in renewables does not hinder growth in MENA countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 225-247 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1520000 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1520000 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:225-247 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sahar Tohamy Hassanin Author-X-Name-First: Sahar Author-X-Name-Last: Tohamy Hassanin Title: Judicial review in administrative contracts in Egypt: evidence from administrative court rulings in Government Tenders and Bids Law disputes Abstract: This paper examines the role of administrative court review in disputes related to Egypt’s Government Tenders and Bids Law. It assesses whether government authorities are more likely to receive a favorable ruling, whether they receive a larger fraction of their claims, and whether administration-initiated claims face a shorter dispute resolution time. I use rulings data from 472 cases to construct variables for dispute characteristics and outcomes. Analysis shows that, compared to contractors, government authorities have higher odds of receiving favorable awards of both the main disputed values and composite claims (including interest or compensation). Plaintiff identity, on the other hand, does not affect the odds of being awarded a compensation or interest claim. Moreover, administrative authorities, on average, receive a larger fraction of their claims and the difference increases for composite claims and when plaintiffs demand interest or compensation when filing. With respect to dispute resolution time, contractor-initiated cases are shorter on average and economy-wide variables and administrative court restructuring affect dispute resolution time in contrast to their negligible effect on expected dispute outcome. The analysis further suggests that plaintiffs are partially successful in applying law principles when claiming interest and compensation to improve dispute outcomes. However, bias in favor of administrative authorities remains, which is likely the outcome of a combination of the discretionary room that the law grants administrative authorities and the discretion that courts have in applying Civil Law principles governing compensation and interest awards. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 299-341 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1520001 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1520001 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:299-341 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali Souag Author-X-Name-First: Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Souag Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Title: The impact of the action plan for promoting employment and combating unemployment on employment informality in Algeria Abstract: This paper examines whether the Action Plan for Promoting Employment and Combating Unemployment, a labor market intermediation program adopted by the Algerian government in 2008, reduced the informality of employment in Algeria. Using repeated cross-section data from the Household Survey on Employment for the period from 1997 to 2013, and a difference-in-difference methodology, we estimate whether the Action Plan has reduced the probability that workers are employed informally in enterprises of more than 5 workers – the type of enterprise that is most likely to be directly affected by the Action Plan. Our results show that the Action Plan has in fact contributed to reducing employment informality in such enterprises, but with heterogeneous effects. More precisely, it reduced informality for employees of establishments of 10 workers or more but had no significant effects on informality for those working in enterprises of 5 to 9 workers. Furthermore, when we restrict our estimates to new entrants only, we do not find statistically significant effects. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 272-298 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1520002 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1520002 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:272-298 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Ismail Sabry Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Ismail Author-X-Name-Last: Sabry Title: State business relations and innovation in the MENA region Abstract: Understanding that Innovation is a major determinant of economic growth, this paper is investigating how to foster Innovation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region given the institutional deficiencies suffered in many of its countries. More specifically, this paper is trying to find out how State-Business Relations (SBR) have contributed to Innovation capacities of the MENA. It also investigates whether SBR have counteracted some of the region's institutional deficiencies which hinder Innovation. While doing this, this paper differentiates between formal SBR (e.g. public private dialogues) and informal SBR (relations based on family, ethnic or political connections), and puts more theoretical emphasis on the National Innovation System (NIS) approach for fostering innovation. It uses regression analysis and provides three relatively (Innovation-wise) advanced non-Gulf MENA countries as examples for the sake of enriching the discussion through a comparative analysis; these are: Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. Using various multivariate panel OLS regressions, various important findings are obtained. The results suggest that stronger Business Associations, formal SBR and comprehensive institutional reform are needed for fostering Innovation in the MENA region. Even if Cronyism and crony-based informal SBR seem to provide a functional allocative mechanism counteracting some institutional deficiencies, yet, Cronyism do more harm than good to Innovation. Hence, institutional reform in the MENA region should also place more emphasis on eradicating Cronyism. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 195-224 Issue: 2 Volume: 10 Year: 2018 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2018.1520003 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2018.1520003 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:195-224 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sami Bensassi Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Bensassi Author-Name: Anne Brockmeyer Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Brockmeyer Author-Name: Mathieu Pellerin Author-X-Name-First: Mathieu Author-X-Name-Last: Pellerin Author-Name: Gaël Raballand Author-X-Name-First: Gaël Author-X-Name-Last: Raballand Title: Algeria–Mali trade: the normality of informality Abstract: This paper estimates the volume of informal trade between Algeria and Mali and analyzes its determinants and mechanisms, using a multi-pronged methodology. In addition to mirror statistics analysis, we provide evidence of the importance of informal trade, drawing on satellite images and surveys with informal traders in Mali and Algeria. We estimate that the weekly turnover of informal trade fell from approximately US$2 million in 2011 to US$0.74 million in 2014, but that trade continues to play a crucial role in the economies of northern Mali and southern Algeria. We also show that official trade statistics are meaningless in this context because they capture less than 3% of total trade. Meanwhile, profit margins of 20–30% on informal trade help to explain the relative prosperity of northern Mali. Informal trade probably plays a strong role in poverty reduction, especially in the Kidal region. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 161-183 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1353767 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1353767 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:161-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali T. Akarca Author-X-Name-First: Ali T. Author-X-Name-Last: Akarca Title: Migrant mix and election outcomes: a district-level analysis of greater Istanbul metropolitan area Abstract: About 40% of the Turkish population resides in a province other than the one in which they or their fathers were born. Forty-three percent of such people live in the greater Istanbul metropolitan area (Istanbul, Kocaeli and Yalova provinces) and make up 82% of its population. Whether party preferences differ between migrants and natives, and between migrants from different parts of Turkey are studied with the help of robust regressions. It is shown that 2011 vote shares of the three major political parties at various districts of the metropolitan area in question can be explained by the proportions of immigrants from different regions living at these districts. This conclusion is not altered even after socioeconomic and demographic differences between the districts are controlled. Thus, a strong region-of-origin effect is found on the party choices of internal migrants. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 278-293 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1359058 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1359058 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:278-293 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Muller Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Author-X-Name-Last: Muller Author-Name: Christophe J. Nordman Author-X-Name-First: Christophe J. Author-X-Name-Last: Nordman Title: Wages and on-the-job training in Tunisia Abstract: Training costs may hamper intra-firm human capital accumulation. As a consequence, firms may be tempted to have workers pay for their on-the-job training (OJT). In this paper, we analyse the links of OJT and worker remuneration in the suburb of Tunis, using case study data for eight firms. We find that the duration of former OJT negatively influences starting wages, while there is no anticipated effect of future training on wages at the firm entry. In contrast, current wages are positively affected by former OJT but negatively affected by ongoing OJT. These results provide very rare empirical support in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) for classical human capital theories and cost sharing theories applied to OJT. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 294-318 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1366771 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1366771 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:294-318 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sidi Mohammed Chekouri Author-X-Name-First: Sidi Mohammed Author-X-Name-Last: Chekouri Author-Name: Abderrahim Chibi Author-X-Name-First: Abderrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Chibi Author-Name: Mohamed Benbouziane Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Benbouziane Title: Algeria and the natural resource curse: oil abundance and economic growth Abstract: In this paper, we examine the interaction between oil exports’ revenues and long-run economic growth in Algeria over the period 1979–2013. Advanced econometric procedures including the cointegration VARX (VAR with exogenous variables) model, over-identifying restrictions, bootstrapping, persistent profiles and Generalized Impulse Response Function are utilized in the empirical analysis. The results show a strong and positive association between oil revenue and long-run economic growth, but negative linkages between the volatility of oil revenues and growth in Algeria. Our impulse response analysis also provides evidence that a positive shock in oil revenues increases the level of real output, and appreciates the real exchange rate. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 233-255 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1366772 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1366772 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:233-255 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dina N. Elshahawany Author-X-Name-First: Dina N. Author-X-Name-Last: Elshahawany Author-Name: Eduardo A. Haddad Author-X-Name-First: Eduardo A. Author-X-Name-Last: Haddad Author-Name: Michael L. Lahr Author-X-Name-First: Michael L. Author-X-Name-Last: Lahr Title: Accessibility, transportation cost, and regional growth: a case study for Egypt Abstract: This paper focuses on a proposed development corridor in Egypt, a main component of which is a desert-based expansion of the current highway network. The main beneficial features of this proposed transport investment are travel time reductions and improved accessibility. We use a spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model to estimate the economic impacts of changes in transportation costs from this new roadway. To effect this, we integrate the model with a stylized geo-coded transportation network to estimate the spatial distribution of changes in transportation costs. Ignoring the cost of the infrastructure itself, we employ a series of simulations to estimate the likely structural economic impacts that such a large investment in transportation could enable through a series of simulations. Results show the Corridor causes the economic tide to rise for the economies of all Egyptian governorates. Gains in efficiency are particularly strong for those regions that are presently most isolated, namely those located to the southern and western extremes of the country. This suggests that the project will lessen regional disparities across Egypt’s governorates. We therefore show that integrated SCGE models can be useful in estimating the potential economic benefits of transportation projects in developing nations like Egypt. Moreover, it is clear that interregional economic models can be vital in examining the varied spatial distribution of the benefits that derive from geographically targeted government spending. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 256-277 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1366773 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1366773 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:256-277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Omneia Helmy Author-X-Name-First: Omneia Author-X-Name-Last: Helmy Author-Name: Chahir Zaki Author-X-Name-First: Chahir Author-X-Name-Last: Zaki Title: The nexus between internal and external macroeconomic imbalances: evidence from Egypt Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between internal and external imbalances of the Egyptian economy. In fact, both the twin-deficit hypothesis (TDH) and the Feldstein–Horioka (FH) paradox are examined. Using quarterly data (between 2002 and 2014) in order to capture the short-term dynamics that might affect the Egyptian economy, a Granger causality test and an error-correction model are run in order to determine both the short-term adjustment and the long-run relationship between internal and external imbalances. Our main findings show that the TDH is rejected and a reversed causality running from the current account to the budget deficit exits. Moreover, the FH puzzle is partially rejected since Egypt, while not being perfectly integrated in the world capital market, has a high degree of capital mobility. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 198-232 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1368217 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1368217 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:198-232 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: May Attallah Author-X-Name-First: May Author-X-Name-Last: Attallah Title: The determinants of voting for Islamists in Egypt’s first post-revolution elections 2011–2012 Abstract: This paper studies empirically the voting outcomes for the first post-revolution presidential elections in Egypt. In the light of strong success of the Islamist candidate, Mohamed Morsi, I identify three dimensions which can affect voting outcomes: human capital stock, wealth and employment structure. I find that less educated, poorer and more unequal districts support more Islamists. I also find an effect of the employment structure of a district on voting. I test the results by comparing the determinants of voting outcomes of the presidential elections to those of the 2011 and 2012 constitutional referendums. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 184-197 Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1369787 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1369787 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:184-197 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Board Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 2 Volume: 9 Year: 2017 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1398212 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2017.1398212 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paolo Verme Author-X-Name-First: Paolo Author-X-Name-Last: Verme Author-Name: Abdoul Gadiry Barry Author-X-Name-First: Abdoul Author-X-Name-Last: Gadiry Barry Author-Name: Jamal Guennouni Author-X-Name-First: Jamal Author-X-Name-Last: Guennouni Author-Name: Mohamed Taamouti Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Taamouti Title: Labor mobility, economic shocks and jobless growth evidence from panel data in Morocco Abstract: During the past 20 years, Morocco has implemented a wide range of macroeconomic, social and labor market reforms that have delivered in terms of GDP growth and household welfare. Yet, these positive developments are not reflected by the main labor market indicators, a phenomenon observed elsewhere in developed and developing economies alike and labeled as ‘jobless growth’. For the first time in Morocco, this paper investigates the question of labor mobility using quarterly panel data in an effort to determine whether people have moved to better sectors and jobs. Results point to significant labor mobility between labor statuses with quite distinct features across population groups. All groups experience some form of labor market mobility every quarter and women are as mobile as men. However, the transitions that women experience are very different from the transitions that men experience and women's performance is worse than men's performance in almost all aspects of labor mobility. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-31 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1100932 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1100932 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:1-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tahar Abdessalem Author-X-Name-First: Tahar Author-X-Name-Last: Abdessalem Author-Name: Houyem Chekki Cherni Author-X-Name-First: Houyem Author-X-Name-Last: Chekki Cherni Title: Macroeconomic effects of pension reforms in the context of aging populations: overlapping generations model simulations for Tunisia Abstract: We have developed a general equilibrium overlapping generations’ model to evaluate the effects of demographic transition in Tunisia and to discuss the impacts of pension reforms. Simulations consider two scenarios: a benchmark scenario (without reforms) and a policy-change scenario, including a set of pension reforms: contribution rate increase, pensions’ level reduction, rise of the retirement age and finally the introduction of a complementary fully funded system. The latter incorporates a specific hypothesis consisting in differentiated returns for free saving (private) and compulsory (pension funds). Simulation results indicate that population aging could have a major impact on the saving rate, factors prices and economic growth. However, they also indicate that policy reforms could reduce the negative effects. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 84-108 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1150007 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1150007 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:84-108 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Esra Çeviker Gürakar Author-X-Name-First: Esra Çeviker Author-X-Name-Last: Gürakar Author-Name: Emin Köksal Author-X-Name-First: Emin Author-X-Name-Last: Köksal Title: Institutional evolution and economic development in Iran and Turkey Abstract: Iran and Turkey historically had outwardly similar politoconomic experiences. Particularly after World War I there were both similar institutional reform programs on the two countries’ agendas and convergence in their economic growth and development levels. However, this convergence came to a standstill with their picking of totally diverse economic institutions in 1980s. This study attempts to provide an analysis of this diverse transformation of economic institutions in Iran and Turkey in light of the new approach proposed – The Clash of Paths (CoP). We assume that institutions are not typically chosen for the general benefit of society, but are rather imposed by groups with political power. We propose that the establishment, reformation and transformation of economic institutional structures in different countries are endogenous to two important determinants: (i) diverse political institutional structures that determine formal constraints on political power relations; (ii) diverse societal ‘mental models’ that create informal constraints on cognitive and relational patterns. The ‘formal’ and the ‘informal’ constraints evolve in interaction with external institutional paths that a country's path clashes with. In this study we also construct a simple bargaining game to integrate macro aspects of institutional evolution drawn under CoP to a micro-level explanation of the emergence and change of institutions. The micro-level analysis suggests that institutional evolution is very much connected to politically powerful groups’ decisions to reach or reject a consensus, which is something that is built or destroyed on the basis of actors’ projected utilities. Actors’ decisions in turn are dependent on their ability to solve the collective action and resource mobilization problems in order for their commitments or threats to be credible. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 32-64 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1150008 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1150008 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:32-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Burak Dogan Author-X-Name-First: Burak Author-X-Name-Last: Dogan Author-Name: Afsin Sahin Author-X-Name-First: Afsin Author-X-Name-Last: Sahin Author-Name: M. Hakan Berument Author-X-Name-First: M. Hakan Author-X-Name-Last: Berument Title: Rethinking interest rate volatility as a macroprudential policy tool Abstract: Along with most other central banks, Turkey's central bank has implemented unconventional policies since the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Financial stability has been one of the targets of these macroprudential policies. However, since Turkey is working toward this goal without increasing its inflation rate, tracking only short-term interest rates to measure this policy's effectiveness would be inefficient. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence from Turkey that interbank interest rate volatility can be an additional tool for monetary policy makers to help achieve the goal of financial stability. Impulse responses generated from the Vector Autoregressive models indicate that interest rate volatility increases interest rates, depreciates domestic currency and decreases credit growth and output. Its statistically insignificant effect on prices is open to interpretation. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 109-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1150009 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1150009 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:109-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid Rashid Alkhater Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Rashid Author-X-Name-Last: Alkhater Author-Name: Syed Abul Basher Author-X-Name-First: Syed Abul Author-X-Name-Last: Basher Title: The oil cycle, the Federal Reserve, and the monetary and exchange rate policies of Qatar Abstract: Supporters of the Arab oil-exporting countries’ decades-long fixed exchange rate regime argue that since, oil is traded in US dollars, pegging to the dollar is optimal. However, the weakening relationship between oil prices and the US economy in terms of the Federal Reserve's expansionary monetary stance amid soaring oil prices for much of the previous decade has raised questions about the viability of the peg. Using Qatar as a case study, this paper empirically analyzes whether the synchronization pattern of business cycles has recently changed between Qatar and the USA. The results of the analysis show a pronounced desynchronization or decoupling of business cycles between Qatar and the USA during 2001–2010. Moreover, the dissimilarly of demand shocks between the two countries suggests that the imported monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve has not been viable for Qatar in recent years. A natural implication of our findings is the need for a truly independent monetary policy oriented toward domestic goals. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 127-155 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1150010 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1150010 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:127-155 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaker Sarsour Author-X-Name-First: Shaker Author-X-Name-Last: Sarsour Author-Name: Michel Dombrecht Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Dombrecht Title: Competitiveness assessment of the Palestinian economy: a long-run perspective Abstract: The paper aims to determine the desired level of the current account balance (CAB) to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio that would stabilize the net foreign asset (NFA) position at a given benchmark value, as well as, to determine the required level of foreign aid and workers remittance that would improve Palestinians’ welfare, while maintaining a sustainable CAB. Two different approaches, the external sustainability and the macroeconomic balance approach, have been utilized to achieve these goals. Results indicate that stabilizing Palestinian Territory's (PT) NFAs will require a significant reduction in the share of its trade deficit in percentage of GDP, i.e. enhancing the competitiveness of Palestinian exports. This required adjustment will be even more pronounced if PT aims to reduce its dependence on foreign aid. In addition, the required adjustment cannot be managed through exchange rate and/or monetary policies, due to the absence of a national currency. The rebalance between domestic expenditures and domestic income generation can be achieved through policies aimed at increasing the potential output and/or reducing the share of domestic consumption in total GDP. Furthermore, results indicate that foreign aid and workers remittances must increase significantly in order to preserve the required consumption to GDP ratio. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 65-83 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1151323 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1151323 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:65-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mouna Gammoudi Author-X-Name-First: Mouna Author-X-Name-Last: Gammoudi Author-Name: Mondher Cherif Author-X-Name-First: Mondher Author-X-Name-Last: Cherif Title: Threshold effects in the capital account liberalization and foreign direct investment relationship Abstract: This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization (CAL) on foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the System Generalized-Method-of-Moments (GMM) estimator developed for the dynamic panel model for a sample of 14 Middle East countries from 1985 to 2009. We find new evidence that countries that are able to reap the benefits of the capital openness policy satisfy certain threshold conditions regarding the level of financial development and institutional quality. Our results are relevant for Middle East countries since many of them have engaged in a process of liberalization, have weak institutions and an inappropriate financial framework. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 156-175 Issue: 1 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2016.1151324 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2016.1151324 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:156-175 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bachir Hamdouch Author-X-Name-First: Bachir Author-X-Name-Last: Hamdouch Author-Name: Jackline Wahba Author-X-Name-First: Jackline Author-X-Name-Last: Wahba Title: Return migration and entrepreneurship in Morocco Abstract: This paper contributes to the rapidly growing literature concerned with the potentially substantial implications of international migration for economic development in developing countries. We use a survey of return Moroccan migrants in 2003–2004 to explore the pattern of return migration and entrepreneurial activities of return migrants. We examine the determinants of entrepreneurial behavior among return migrants in Morocco, controlling for the potential endogeneity of the migration duration. Our findings suggest that individual characteristics and conditions before migration matter for entrepreneurship. We also consider the potential endogenous impact of having invested overseas on the entrepreneurial behavior upon return. We find that overseas migration experience plays a significant role beyond the role played by savings and captured by migration duration. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 129-148 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072696 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072696 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:129-148 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Engy Raouf Abdel Fattah Author-X-Name-First: Engy Author-X-Name-Last: Raouf Abdel Fattah Title: Total factor productivity and technology spillovers in Egypt Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of R&D spillovers from 16 countries on Egypt’ domestic productivity at the industry level over the period from 2003 to 2008. Most of the existing literature is concerned with one or two channels of technology spillovers. This analysis will thereby contribute further understanding of the estimable impact of R&D spillovers from various channels of spillovers – namely, import, export, inward FDI and outward FDI. The results prove that foreign direct investments are more important channels of transmitting technology than trade. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 149-159 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072697 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072697 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:149-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ebru Voyvoda Author-X-Name-First: Ebru Author-X-Name-Last: Voyvoda Author-Name: Erinç Yeldan Author-X-Name-First: Erinç Author-X-Name-Last: Yeldan Title: An applied endogenous growth model with human and knowledge capital accumulation for the Turkish economy Abstract: We analytically investigate and assess the interactions between knowledge-driven growth, acquisition of human capital, and the role of strategic public policy for the Turkish economy within the context of a general equilibrium model. The model aims to investigate the public policies toward fostering the development of human capital (such as investments in education and learning) and those at enhancing total factor productivity through investments in physical capital and innovation (such as subsidies to R&D), and to study the impact of various public policies on patterns of growth, along with their likely consequences from the points of view of capital accumulation, income distribution, social welfare and economic efficiency for the Turkish economy. With the aid of the model, we seek for analytical answers to the following question: for a government constrained with its budgetary requirements, which type of public subsidiziation policies is more conducive for enhancing growth and social welfare: promotion of human capital formation through subsidies to education expenditures, or promotion of new R&D formation through subsidies to R&D investment expenditures? According to the model findings, a single-handed strategy of only subsidizing education expenditures to promote human capital formation falls short of achieving desirable growth performance in the medium to long run. Under the policy of human capital formation promotion, expected growth and welfare results are weak in the medium-to-long run unless increased human capital can upgrade the number of research personnel employed in the R&D development sector. Under these observations, it can be argued that the public policy should be directed to R&D promotion in the medium-to-long run to complement an education promotion program to sustain human capital formation. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 195-225 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072698 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072698 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:195-225 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zaki Mehchy Author-X-Name-First: Zaki Author-X-Name-Last: Mehchy Author-Name: Rabie Nasser Author-X-Name-First: Rabie Author-X-Name-Last: Nasser Author-Name: Marc Schiffbauer Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Schiffbauer Title: Trade determinants and potential of Syria: using a gravity model ‘with an estimation of the Syrian crisis’ impact on exports’ Abstract: This paper diagnoses export determinants for Syria between 1995 and 2010 using a gravity model applying Heckman's two-step approach with Least Squares Dummy Variables. The model analyzes total and manufacturing exports separately. In addition to the standard explanatory variables, the gravity model is augmented with the nominal effective exchange rate and institutional performance variables. The results show the importance of a relative improvement in Syrian institutions to increase exports. Furthermore, the paper estimates an index that identifies countries with a high potential demand for Syrian products. Finally, the gravity model is used to simulate the impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria on the potential for exports; the results show that sanctions and the deterioration in institutional factors are expected to have reduced Syria's export potential by more than 70%, which might lead to a complete collapse of the economy in the short term. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 226-251 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072699 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072699 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:226-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carlos Caceres Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Caceres Author-Name: Leandro Medina Author-X-Name-First: Leandro Author-X-Name-Last: Medina Title: Measures of fiscal risk in oil-exporting countries Abstract: The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several oil-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices – that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending – in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to oil-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is worth noting that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 160-174 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072700 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072700 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:160-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brahim Guizani Author-X-Name-First: Brahim Author-X-Name-Last: Guizani Title: Capital requirements, banking supervision and lending behavior: evidence from Tunisia Abstract: This paper represents a contribution to the very meager literature on the impact of the prudential regulations on Tunisian bank behavior. It attempts to examine the effect of the capital requirements on bank credits during the period from 1999 to 2010 and assess the effectiveness of the banking supervision policy in containing the financial system's risk. On the basis of a theoretical dynamic model, the results show that the capital requirement ratio was binding bank credits during the period of study; well-capitalized banks have been lending more than less-capitalized ones. Despite this apparent stringency of the Tunisian bank regulator, our paper reveals that the supervision policy was weakly effective in restraining systemic risk. This research recommends further reinforcement of the supervision policy and initiating the assessment of its current design in order to improve its effectiveness. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 175-194 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1072930 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1072930 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:175-194 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sara B. Alnashar Author-X-Name-First: Sara B. Author-X-Name-Last: Alnashar Title: On Egypt's de facto integration in the international financial market Abstract: This study explores whether Egypt has become de facto perfectly integrated in the international financial market following the steps taken towards the de jure liberalization of the capital and financial accounts of the balance of payments since the early 1990s. It does so by running two empirical tests, namely, the uncovered interest parity and the monetary autonomy tests using monthly data for the periods January 2000–December 2011 and July 2004–June 2008. The outcome of both tests indicates that during the periods under investigation, Egypt has maintained imperfect de facto integration in the international financial market, despite the de jure financial openness. To explore the reasons behind such imperfect de facto integration, the study estimates a vector error-correction model (VECM) using quarterly data for the period 2001/2002–2010/2011. According to the variance decompositions generated from the VECM, high inflation rate in Egypt has been a major contributor to the variability of the spread between interest rates on domestic and foreign financial assets, and thus could be deemed as a culprit behind Egypt's imperfect de facto integration. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 252-280 Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1083219 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1083219 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:252-280 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Board Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 2 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1104106 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1104106 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:2:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: James L Butkiewicz Author-X-Name-First: James L Author-X-Name-Last: Butkiewicz Author-Name: Zeliha Ozdogan Author-X-Name-First: Zeliha Author-X-Name-Last: Ozdogan Title: Financial crisis, monetary policy reform and the monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey Abstract: Turkey experienced a financial crisis in 2000–2001, which led to significant financial reforms. The reforms resulted in a switch to a floating exchange rate, granted greater central bank independence and pursuit of a more credible monetary policy. Investigation of the channels of monetary policy in both periods finds that monetary policy's output effects have been strengthened considerably by the reforms. In the pre-crisis period, monetary policy was highly inflationary, while in the post-crisis period, monetary policy targets low inflation and has become a tool for output stabilization. These results support the importance of central bank independence and a credible policy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 66-83 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.885484 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.885484 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:66-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dalia S. Hakura Author-X-Name-First: Dalia S. Author-X-Name-Last: Hakura Author-Name: Francesco Grigoli Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Grigoli Title: Recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan: have macroeconomic policies been effective? Abstract: This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries' recessions and recoveries has increased from the 1990s to the 2000s. MENAP hydrocarbon exporting countries' recessions were on average more pronounced in the 2000s, and hydrocarbon importing countries' recessions milder. Fiscal policy is found to have played a key role during the recoveries to potential output, although with weaker effects for MENAP countries that are more open to trade. Monetary policy is found to have been less effective. This is likely to be related to the fact that many of the MENAP countries have fixed exchange rate regimes and hence have limited room for active monetary policy. At the same time, however, countries that experienced a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) or had undervalued REERs tended to recover faster. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 45-65 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.885485 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.885485 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:45-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Iftekhar Hasan Author-X-Name-First: Iftekhar Author-X-Name-Last: Hasan Author-Name: Nada Kobeissi Author-X-Name-First: Nada Author-X-Name-Last: Kobeissi Author-Name: Liang Song Author-X-Name-First: Liang Author-X-Name-Last: Song Title: Corporate governance, investor protection, and firm performance in MENA countries Abstract: The literature on development finance and corporate finance in emerging markets is, to date, primarily focused on the impact of country-level investor protection and differences in legal systems on firm value across countries. This paper extends the literature by investigating the relationship between firm-level governance and performance while controlling for country-level governance and other relevant variables within the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Evidence shows a strong and significant positive relationship between good corporate governance – such as higher investor protection and lower managerial entrenchment – and firm value. We also find that the positive effects of property rights on firm performance are more pronounced for firms with higher managerial entrenchment. In addition, the positive effects of property rights on firm performance are additionally more significant for firms with higher managerial entrenchment and higher cash holding. Finally, the positive effects of property rights on firm performance are additionally more significant for firms with higher managerial entrenchment and lower dividend payout. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 84-107 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.886421 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.886421 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:84-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Amr Sadek Hosny Author-X-Name-First: Amr Sadek Author-X-Name-Last: Hosny Author-Name: Hamid Mohtadi Author-X-Name-First: Hamid Author-X-Name-Last: Mohtadi Title: Inflation, financial intermediation and growth: the case of Egypt Abstract: There is now a consensus in the theoretical and the empirical literature that a nonlinear relationship exists between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. Using a threshold regression technique, this paper re-examines this relationship and the critical role that financial intermediation plays in it. Data to examine our hypothesis are from Egypt. We find that inflation contributes positively to economic growth until it reaches a threshold rate of about 12%, after which it becomes detrimental to growth. We then show that such a nonlinear relation is connected to whether or not financial deepening has crossed a certain threshold level. Given these thresholds, a coordination of policies (especially monetary) and financial reform is needed to achieve success in economic growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-19 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.886422 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.886422 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:1-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Abdelbasset Author-X-Name-Last: Chemingui Author-Name: Chokri Thabet Author-X-Name-First: Chokri Author-X-Name-Last: Thabet Title: Taxing CO2 emissions and its ancillary health benefits: a computable general equilibrium analysis for Tunisia Abstract: Since the middle of the last century, Tunisia has embarked on an ambitious trade reform program aimed at improving its integration in the world economy, boosting growth through valorizing comparative advantages, and reducing unemployment among its population. However, and despite the positive role that trade may play in improving growth through better allocation of domestic resources and lower costs of imported equipments and raw materials, the risk is to amplify output in sectors intensive in energy in a country where energy is still subsidized. Introducing pollution abatement taxation has been suggested as a way to achieve ancillary benefits from reduced local air toxics. The highest level of local air pollution is found in heavily populated cities where labor is concentrated and where labor health is believed to have been significantly impacted. The objective of this paper is to address this important issue. It identifies the optimal and ‘no regrets’ pollution abatement tax on a net welfare function, which integrates both net health benefits and adjustment costs. The paper uses a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for the assessment that allows the health benefits to feed back into the economy. A health effects sub-model takes the local air emissions output from the CGE model and assesses the implications for ambient air concentration levels and health effects. The results suggest an ‘optimal’ abatement rate in 2020 of around 25% of CO2 reduction compared with the baseline 2020 emissions. However, the most significant impact concerns the relatively small aggregate cost of pollution abatement in terms of forgone real average growth rate of GDP between 2010 and 2020 for the trade scenario with ‘optimal’ climate policy. Finally, the major consequence of pollution abatement policies is the reduction of production generated by polluting activities against a higher production of less-polluting activities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 108-145 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.887805 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.887805 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:108-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michel Beine Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Beine Author-Name: Khalid Sekkat Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Sekkat Title: Emigration and origin country's institutions: does the destination country matter? Abstract: This paper examines the influence of international migration on the evolution of the quality of institutions in the home country. It focuses on the potential difference in the impact depending on the status of the destination country (i.e. former colonizer, economic power and political power). It also examines whether the impact depends on the quality of institutions in the host country. The results show that the status and the quality of institutions of the country of destination matter and that while emigration to former colonizers has no effect on the quality of institutions in the origin country, emigration to economically or politically powerful countries has a positive feedback on the quality of institutions in the home country. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 20-44 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.898411 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.898411 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:20-44 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Raimundo Soto Author-X-Name-First: Raimundo Author-X-Name-Last: Soto Title: The economic development process in the Middle East and North Africa Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 146-150 Issue: 1 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.920212 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.920212 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:146-150 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: William Foster Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Foster Author-Name: Alberto Valdés Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Valdés Title: A profile of trade protection in Egypt: an effective rate of protection approach adjusting for energy subsidies and non-tariff barriers Abstract: This study examines effective rates of protection (ERPs) in Egypt due to tariffs, non-tariff barriers (NTBs), and energy subsidies, and compares them with those of a decade ago. Two sources of cost-share information at different levels of aggregation are used: data on specific industries (four-digit ISIC code, 20 in the private and 17 in the public sector), and data on the inter-industry intermediate input costs from the latest available input–output matrix (2006/2007) with 23 aggregated sectors. Trade liberalization since late-1990s appears to have reduced protection, although some industries remain relatively highly protected due to tariff escalation, NTBs, and energy subsidies. Energy subsidies favor energy intensive sectors, of particular note the electricity sector. Energy subsidies also offset the dis-protection that results from intermediate input tariffs. The cement sector is notable, energy subsidies almost exactly offsetting the negative impacts of tariffs and indirect taxes. The fertilizer sector has zero nominal tariffs (benefiting agriculture) and so has a negative ERP due simply to tariffs on inputs; nevertheless, the sector has a high positive ERP due to energy subsidies. ERPs in the private sector have declined notably, and nominal rates of protection have declined generally. ERP dispersion across industries also fell over the decade, but there remains an unexpectedly high dispersion relative to that suggested by applied tariffs only due to the unequal impact of subsidies. Estimated tariff equivalents of NTBs are also highly dispersed. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 285-307 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961325 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961325 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:285-307 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Muller Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Author-X-Name-Last: Muller Author-Name: Christophe J. Nordman Author-X-Name-First: Christophe J. Author-X-Name-Last: Nordman Title: Task organization, human capital, and wages in Moroccan exporting firms Abstract: We conduct a case study of the linkages of task organization, human capital accumulation, and wages in Morocco, using matched worker–firm data for electrical–mechanical and textile-clothing industries. In order to integrate task organization into the interacting processes of workers' training and remunerations, we assume a recursive model, which is not rejected by our estimates: task organization influences on-the-job training (OJT) that affects wages. Beyond sector and gender determinants, assignment of workers to tasks and OJT is found to depend on former education and work experience in a broad sense. Meanwhile, participation in OJT is stimulated by being assigned to a team, especially of textile sector and for well-educated workers. Finally, task organization and OJT are found to effect wages. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 175-198 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961326 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961326 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:175-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Laura Márquez-Ramos Author-X-Name-First: Laura Author-X-Name-Last: Márquez-Ramos Author-Name: Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada Author-X-Name-Last: Martínez-Zarzoso Title: Trade in intermediate goods and Euro-Med production networks Abstract: This paper examines the involvement of North African (NA) countries in regional production networks using a gravity model of trade augmented with imports of intermediate goods. The model is estimated using disaggregated bilateral exports of final and intermediate goods from four NA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) to OECD countries over the period 1995–2008. A first hypothesis argues that the Euro-Mediterranean process has led to a greater integration of NA countries in regional production networks. A second hypothesis states that manufacturing companies may transfer part of their production process to countries with lower labour costs, thereby generating increasing trade links between intermediate goods. Our results indicate that NA countries have indeed become more integrated in Euro-Mediterranean production networks and that this has a positive impact on trade flows between the two sides of the Mediterranean Sea. We conclude that the increase in exports from NA countries has been mainly channelled through changes in the rules of origin and the increase in imports of intermediate goods. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 215-231 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961327 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961327 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:215-231 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammed Hassan Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Author-X-Name-Last: Hassan Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Title: Government spending decomposition: priorities toward anchoring higher growth Abstract: This paper uses vector autoregressive models to investigate which government spending category has been more beneficial for private economic growth in the short and long run. To that end, the analysis considers a longtime horizon to detect contemporaneous and lagged cyclical effects of government spending and underlying components on the economy as well as common trends over time. Moreover, the paper demonstrates how the Egyptian government managed to frequently increase the current expenditure ratios in the state budget, and the economic consequences of such increases on private activity. More specifically, the paper explores the extent to which government spending categories played a role in enhancing private investment and hence contributed indirectly to private economic growth. The paper arrives at the following conclusions. First, the effect of the various government expenditure ratios on economic growth is generally weak. In contrast, the effect of private investment on growth is dominant. Second, while the magnitude of the relationship between fiscal policy variables and private investment is generally small, the accumulated effect of higher government purchases of goods and services on private investment is relatively high. Third, the paper confirms the observation that the government frequently reduced the government investment ratio to accommodate the increases in the current expenditure ratios which negatively affected economic growth. Priorities for fiscal policies should aim at reducing the deficit and restructuring the budget to create better space for targeted spending in support of inclusive economic growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 232-254 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961328 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961328 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:232-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Atif Awad Author-X-Name-First: Atif Author-X-Name-Last: Awad Author-Name: Ishak Yussof Author-X-Name-First: Ishak Author-X-Name-Last: Yussof Author-Name: Rahmah Ismail Author-X-Name-First: Rahmah Author-X-Name-Last: Ismail Author-Name: Tamat Sarmidi Author-X-Name-First: Tamat Author-X-Name-Last: Sarmidi Title: Economic growth and human development – what do time series data say for Sudan? Abstract: This study examines United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)'s 1996 hypothesis regarding the existence of a two-way relationship between economic growth (EG) and human development (HD) using Sudanese time series data (1960–2012). The hypothesis suggests that there is a feedback effect between HD and EG. This implies that improving HD could enhance EG opportunities and vice versa. In this study, first we analyse the long-run cointegration relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Then, to identify the short-run dynamic relationship between HD and EG, we employ the error correction model derived from the ARDL. The results show that in the long run, HD is positively related to EG through education and employment performance channels. At the same time, EG could positively improve the opportunities for the education of households and involvement in economic activities. The short-run dynamic estimation confirms that there is a bidirectional relationship between EG and HD. The overall findings support UNDP's 1996 hypothesis concerning the existence of a two-way relationship between EG and HD. The results also confirm that improving humanity in Sudan promotes not only HD but also overall economic development. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 151-174 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961329 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961329 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:151-174 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Syed Abul Basher Author-X-Name-First: Syed Abul Author-X-Name-Last: Basher Author-Name: Stefano Fachin Author-X-Name-First: Stefano Author-X-Name-Last: Fachin Title: Investigating long-run demand for broad money in the Gulf Arab countries Abstract: We estimate the long-run demand for broad money for the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the 1980–2012 period. Applying time series and panel econometric tests, we first document the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship for money demand – both nationally and regionally. The estimated income elasticities are generally lower than those reported in the literature, while the interest elasticities are more in line with the standard money demand literature. We discuss how the movements in income velocity can reconcile the varying income and interest elasticities documented across the six countries. A discussion on the homogeneity (poolability) of the long-run money demand parameters and the error correction model of money demand is also provided. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 199-214 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961330 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961330 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:199-214 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Núria Rodríguez-Planas Author-X-Name-First: Núria Author-X-Name-Last: Rodríguez-Planas Author-Name: Raquel Vegas Author-X-Name-First: Raquel Author-X-Name-Last: Vegas Title: Do Moroccan migrants to Spain fare better or worse than other migrants? Abstract: Poor language skills at arrival and low educational attainment raise concerns about how well Moroccans do after arrival in Spain. Using the 2007 Encuesta Nacional de Immigración, this paper compares Moroccans' legal and labor market integration over time relative to the two other largest groups of migrants in Spain: Ecuadorians and Romanians. Modeling jointly legal and labor market integration and exploiting the richness of our data set, which includes migrants' employment history before and at arrival in the host country, we find that Moroccan male migrants assimilate themselves at least as well as the other two nationalities. Among women, Moroccans and Ecuadorians follow a similar pattern that contrasts with the one observed among Romanian women. While the former mainly arrive to Spain to work with legal status and, with time in Spain, (some of them) move out of employment; the latter are considerably (and persistently) more attached to the labor force, although they tend to lack legal status at arrival, and only gain such status over time. Controlling for observable characteristics and using Heckman-corrected estimates, our wage analysis finds that with the exception of Moroccan and Romanian males for which no wage differences are observed, Moroccans outperform the other two nationalities in terms of higher wages at arrival. Moreover, this wage differential does not decrease over time. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 308-328 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961824 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961824 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:308-328 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Amara Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Amara Author-Name: Mohamed Ayadi Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Ayadi Title: Local employment growth in the coastal area of Tunisia: spatial filtering approach Abstract: Since the mid-1980s, Tunisia has conducted a structural adjustment program characterized by more privatization and economic opening. This transition has created unequal growth in the economic performance and the employment opportunities between coastal and interior regions (inland areas). The 14 January revolution has started as social demands against unequal employment opportunities and corruption. The identification of various factors explaining the employment growth in Tunisia's coastal area is necessary to understand regional disparities. In this study, we attempt to assess the impacts of institutional factors and industrial structures on manufacturing employment growth. We seek to answer the following key question: Why does employment grow in one region and not in other? Using panel data on five manufacturing sectors associated to 138 Tunisian coastal small localities (delegations) along six years (2002–2007), we will give some empirical evidence on regional employment growth. We use a dynamic spatial panel data model in order to consider the spatial and temporal effects in the analysis of the local employment growth. Our results show that spillovers have been found to be significantly effective only within a range of 15 km for high-tech industries and 50 km for low-tech. Our econometric result stand that agglomeration and diversity have a positive effect on the local employment manufacturing growth. However, competition has a negative effect. In addition, our results show that industrial zones do not increase employment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 255-284 Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.961832 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.961832 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:255-284 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Editorial Board Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 2 Volume: 6 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2014.997508 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2014.997508 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Omneia Helmy Author-X-Name-First: Omneia Author-X-Name-Last: Helmy Title: Skill demand polarization in Egypt Abstract: By tracking changes in the employment and wage structure of nine high-, middle-, and low-skilled occupations in 18 economic activities over the period 2000–2009, this paper provides evidence that skill demand polarization is growing in Egypt and wage disparity is widening. Our analysis indicates that the demand for middle-skilled workers has declined in 2009, compared to 2000. Almost all of the polarization effect came from product demand shifts across activities that have increased the relative demand for high- and low-skilled workers at the expense of middle-skilled workers, reinforcing polarization of the employment and wage structures in Egypt. While increased competition from imports had an adverse impact for middle-skilled workers, growth of the private sector has provided room to increase demand for all skills particularly those of the middle skills, mitigating the rate of polarization over time. Demand-driven polarization in Egypt has three policy implications. First, investing in human capital by enhancing the quality of education and training systems would allow workers to acquire the sorts of skills that are in greater demand in the labor market, increase their productivity and enhance their future earnings. Second, increasing private sector participation in economic activity by availing a transparent business environment and a more flexible labor market would mobilize demand for all skills, particularly those of the middle skills. Finally, upgrading products in underdeveloped activities and investing in activities with high job content of growth would help stimulate the demand for their products and mobilize employment, thereby narrowing wage disparities across activities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 26-48 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1019291 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1019291 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:26-48 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ebaidalla Mahjoub Ebaidalla Author-X-Name-First: Ebaidalla Mahjoub Author-X-Name-Last: Ebaidalla Author-Name: Abdalla Ali Edriess Author-X-Name-First: Abdalla Ali Author-X-Name-Last: Edriess Title: Flow of migrants' remittances into Sudan: the role of macroeconomic environment Abstract: Considering the importance of migrants' remittances as a vital source of financing economic development and foreign exchange in Sudan's economy, this study investigates the role of the macroeconomic environment in attracting migrants' remittances into Sudan. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, impulse response functions (IRSs) and variance decomposition (VDC) techniques. The empirical results indicate that macroeconomic policy variables play an important role in encouraging the flow of remittances via formal channels. The inflation rate and the black market exchange rate premium have a negative effect on remittances in both short and long run. The home income variable is found to discourage the flow of remittances, supporting the altruistic behavior of emigrants in transferring money. Moreover, the study found that foreign income exerts positive and significant effects on remittances. Based on these findings, the paper concludes with some policy implications regarding the improvement of the macroeconomic environment, as a necessary condition to facilitate the flow of remittances through official channels. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 70-88 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1019292 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1019292 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:70-88 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marc Jeuland Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Jeuland Title: Challenges to wastewater reuse in the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: Faced with increasing water scarcity, policy makers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are increasingly interested in tapping non-conventional water resources, such as recycled wastewater, to meet demands for water. Yet despite its perceived advantages, few countries have succeeded in developing extensive, successful, and safe reuse, despite considerable innovation in the water sector. This paper argues that much of the relative failure to expand reuse in MENA can be linked to incentive problems in wastewater management. A simple conceptual model is applied to explore how demand among different users interacts with water supply to produce different reuse cases. The economics of these cases are discussed with reference to data on water pricing and wastewater management. The analysis shows that a variety of constraints inhibit formal reuse of wastewater in MENA, including problems related to the cost of reuse, problems associated with low demand for reclaimed wastewater, the widespread lack of effective price signals and cost recovery in the water sector, and challenges in structuring the financing of reuse. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-25 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1019293 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1019293 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:1-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Karim Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Karim Author-Name: Amal Mansouri Author-X-Name-First: Amal Author-X-Name-Last: Mansouri Title: Taxation of Moroccan agriculture: an analysis of the sensitivity of the results of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model Abstract: Agriculture has always been the subject of close attention from governments in Morocco, owing among other reasons to its relationships with other sectors, its importance in foreign trade and its role in providing foodstuffs in rural and urban areas. Indeed, agriculture accounts for 15 to 20% in GDP and employs 44% of the labor force. If we add food processing, its contribution to GDP and employment amounts to 15% and 50%, respectively. However, Moroccan agriculture suffers from low productivity, low yields and high logistics, and production costs. For these reasons, agriculture has enjoyed tax exemptions to encourage and promote private and foreign investments. Nevertheless, the tax advantages became a source of distortions and inefficient allocation of investments and resources toward this sector. To analyze the implementation impact of a new system of agricultural taxation, we built a dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is more preferable and suitable than macro-econometric or partial equilibrium economic models because of its dynamic structure, which makes it possible to catch the intertemporal effects of taxation on the well-being of farmers and on the economy as a whole. In addition, we run an unconditional sensitivity analysis to prove that the variability of the model as a whole is not too significant after simultaneous modification of all the parameters. To do this, the Gaussian Quadrature Method is implemented as developed by Arndt, De Vuyst and Preckel, and Piet. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 89-107 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1019294 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1019294 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:89-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ali T. Akarca Author-X-Name-First: Ali T. Author-X-Name-Last: Akarca Title: Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey Abstract: Turkish experience with Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties spanning nearly half a century is studied to understand the factors that caused their transformation and determined their political performance, both while in office and in opposition. A vote equation built, which takes into account all of the key factors mentioned in the economic voting literature, shows that during their rule such parties suffer much less due to strategic voting than other parties but they face a higher cost of ruling. Also, they are affected by the economy in a similar way or even more than other incumbent parties. Moderation in Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties generated through their participation in the parliament and governments, combined with center-right parties deserting their traditional anti-establishment positions, and getting tainted by corruption and incompetence led to massive vote transfers during the last decade from the latter to the former. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 49-69 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1019295 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1019295 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:49-69 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Houyem Zrelli Author-X-Name-First: Houyem Author-X-Name-Last: Zrelli Author-Name: Mounir Belloumi Author-X-Name-First: Mounir Author-X-Name-Last: Belloumi Title: Environmental stakeholders, environmental strategies, and productivity of Tunisian manufacturing industries Abstract: The main objective of this study was to analyze the impact of environmental strategies on productivity in industries that face different environmental stakeholders' pressures using the data of 26 Tunisian manufacturing industries over the period 1994–2008. We first measured the evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) as well as its components using the output-oriented Malmquist productivity index method. Our findings revealed that TFP has witnessed an average increase of 1.5% per year during the above mentioned period. This growth can be explained by technological progress (1.6%) and a loss efficiency (0.1%). Second, we assessed the effect of the environmental strategies on the TFP growth using a panel data model. Our results showed that the pollution abatement activities have two major effects. On the one hand, they negatively affected productivity. On the other hand, they could improve and develop the economic activity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 108-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1025489 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1025489 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:108-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: Editorial team change Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 127-127 Issue: 1 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2015.1047666 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2015.1047666 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:7:y:2015:i:1:p:127-127 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dani Rodrik Author-X-Name-First: Dani Author-X-Name-Last: Rodrik Title: Industrial Policy: Don’t Ask Why, Ask How Abstract: The theoretical case for industrial policy is a strong one. The market failures which industrial policies target — in markets for credit, labor, products, and knowledge — have long been at the core of what development economists study. The conventional case against industrial policy rests on practical difficulties with its implementation. Even though the issues could in principle be settled by empirical evidence, the evidence to date remains uninformative. But the traditional informational and bureaucratic constraints on the exercise of industrial policy are not givens; they can be molded and rendered less binding through appropriate institutional design. Three key design attributes that industrial policy must possess are embeddedness, carrots-and-sticks, and accountability A review of industrial policy in three non-Asian settings — El Salvador, Uruguay, and South Africa — highlights the extensive amount of industrial policy that is already being carried out and frames the need for industrial policy in the specific circumstances of individual countries. Some implications for the Middle East are discussed. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-29 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000024 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000024 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:1-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sonia Naccache Author-X-Name-First: Sonia Author-X-Name-Last: Naccache Title: The Political Economy of Trade Policy in Tunisia Abstract: This paper explores the political economy determinants of cross-industry distribution of protection in Tunisia. Instead of the contribution motive, we assume that the government was seeking legitimacy and, to that end, chose import substitution as an industrial strategy to promote industries with learning potential but still with a likely concern for tariff proceeds as well as for rent generation. Following Esfahani (2005), we include in the latter motive the need for the government to alleviate risk for groups that have imperfect access to credit and/or insurance markets. The estimation of a simple model for a cross-section of 35 Tunisian manufacturing industries in 1997 shows that the industrial distribution of nominal protection tended to obey the special-interests pressures emanating from big, capitalistic firms, supplying consumer goods in the import substitution sectors. However, the workers’ interests and the government ad hoc growth objectives seem to matter as well. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 31-58 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000048 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000048 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:31-58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hala Abou-Ali Author-X-Name-First: Hala Author-X-Name-Last: Abou-Ali Author-Name: Hanaa Kheir-El-Din Author-X-Name-First: Hanaa Author-X-Name-Last: Kheir-El-Din Title: Inflation and Growth in Egypt: is there a Threshold Effect? Abstract: This paper addresses the relationship between inflation and growth in Egypt for the last quarter century. Two distinct sub-periods are observed: somewhat higher and more volatile GDP growth rate is associated with higher inflation prior to 1990/1991; from this year onwards, lower and less volatile growth is associated with significantly lower inflation. It was found that the impact of inflation on GDP growth is not significantly different between the two periods. Testing for non-linear effects of inflation on growth in Egypt, it appears that there is no threshold of inflation, beyond which it is harmful to growth. To the contrary, the findings suggest that inflation at any level negatively impacts economic growth. It is thus beneficial to focus monetary policy towards maintaining price stability. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 59-78 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381200900005x File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381200900005x File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:59-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elena Ianchovichina Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Ianchovichina Author-Name: Maros Ivanict Author-X-Name-First: Maros Author-X-Name-Last: Ivanict Author-Name: Will Martin Author-X-Name-First: Will Author-X-Name-Last: Martin Title: Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Middle East Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to benefit more than most other regions from continued rapid growth in China and India. This paper analyzes the trade-related implications of this growth for the MENA countries using a global general equilibrium model, modified to take into account the focus of China and, increasingly, India on exports of manufactures from global production chains. To obtain a better idea of the implications for key countries in the region, we developed a database with expanded coverage of Middle-Eastern countries. We find that most of the gains to the MENA region come from improvements in the terms of trade, particularly linked to increasing demand for energy. Exports from the Middle East as a whole are expected to decline although exports from the non-oil economies will likely expand. Fuelled by higher incomes and by increases in the competitiveness of China and India, imports into MENA are expected to increase. In the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East, Dutch-disease effects increase the importance of policies to promote adjustment to the changing world environment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 79-103 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000061 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000061 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:79-103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Soiliou Namoro Author-X-Name-First: Soiliou Author-X-Name-Last: Namoro Author-Name: Rania Roushdy Author-X-Name-First: Rania Author-X-Name-Last: Roushdy Title: Intrahousehold Resource Allocation in Egypt: Women Empowerment and Investment in Children Abstract: In this paper, we use the 2006 Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey to gauge and compare the effects of parent-specific characteristics, namely the educational attainment and the contributions made by the mother and the father to marriage costs, on children’s welfare, which we measure by the cohort-mean adjusted years of education. The empirical model used for this purpose is a reduced-form regression model inspired by the collective rationality model of household decision. The analysis suggests that mothers’ and fathers’ characteristics have differential effects on children’s education. In particular, the mother’s contribution to marriage costs, unlike the father’s, positively affects child schooling. The results for parent’s educational attainment are more nuanced. We discuss the policy implications of these findings. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 105-121 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000036 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000036 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:105-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed El Arbi Chaffai Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: El Arbi Chaffai Author-Name: Patrick Plane Author-X-Name-First: Patrick Author-X-Name-Last: Plane Author-Name: Dorra Triki Guermazi Author-X-Name-First: Dorra Author-X-Name-Last: Triki Guermazi Title: TFP in Tunisian Manufacturing Sectors: Convergence or Catch-Up with OECD Members? Abstract: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is analyzed for six Tunisian manufacturing sectors: food processing, electrical and metal products, chemical activities, textiles, clothing and leather, building materials and ceramics, miscellaneous products. First, sector-based TFP are calculated over a long period (1983–2002) as well as some sub-periods reflecting changes of local economic policy. Then, using an accounting framework, we decompose the industrial productivity into a reallocation effect (i.e., variation in the relative distribution of sectoral value added), and a pure productivity effect (i.e., the sectoral value-added shares being constant). Secondly, through panel data unit root tests, TFP long-term convergence with or without catch-up is examined with respect to the productive performance of OECD members. Each of the six Tunisian manufacturing sectors is benchmarked by the productive performance of OECD members. The Dickey–Fuller type test that we use allows us to take into account the potential correlation across OECD countries. The empirical analysis highlights two main findings. TFP convergence and catch-up have generally been a joint process. Moreover, the sectors where catch-up occurred were those with the best productive performance and those that succeeded in reducing the productivity gap with regard to the best OECD performers. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 123-144 Issue: 1 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000073 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000073 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:123-144 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Author-X-Name-First: Djavad Author-X-Name-Last: Salehi-Isfahani Author-Name: Insan Tunali Author-X-Name-First: Insan Author-X-Name-Last: Tunali Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Title: A Comparative Study of Returns to Education of Urban Men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey Abstract: This paper presents a comparative study of private returns to schooling of urban men in Egypt, Iran, and Turkey using similar survey data and a uniform methodology. We employ three surveys for each country that span nearly two decades, from the 1980s to 2006, and, to increase the comparability of the estimates across surveys, we focus on urban men 20–54 years old and in full time wage and salary employment. Our aim is to learn how the monetary signals of rewards that guide individual decisions to invest in education are shaped by the institutions of education and labor markets in these countries. Our estimates generally support the stylized facts of the institutions of education and labor markets in Middle Eastern countries. Their labor markets have been described as dominated by the public sector and therefore relatively inflexible, and their education systems as more focused on secondary and tertiary degrees than teaching practical and productive skills. Returns in all countries are increasing in years of schooling, which is contrary to the Mincer assumption of linear returns but consistent with overemphasis on secondary and tertiary degrees. Low returns to vocational training relative to general upper secondary, which have been observed in many developing countries, are observed in Egypt and Iran, but not Turkey. This pattern of returns across countries seems to correspond to how students are selected into vocational and general upper secondary tracks, which is an important part of the education institutions of these countries, and the fact that Turkey’s economy is more open than the other two. Greater competitiveness in all three countries over time seems to have increased returns to university education and in few cases to vocational education, but not to general high school. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 145-187 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000085 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000085 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:145-187 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Riadh Ben Jelili Author-X-Name-First: Riadh Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Jelili Author-Name: Mohamed Goaid Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Goaid Title: Entry, Exit, Resource Reallocation and Productivity Growth in the Tunisian Private Manufacturing Industries Abstract: Firm entry and exit is a part of the market selection process by which resources are reallocated within or across industries. The process of entry and exit influences economic performance through firms’ internal restructuring, reallocation of resources among firms and changes in market shares of incumbents. This paper sheds light on the magnitude, characteristics and effectiveness of this process in Tunisian manufacturing industries. To this end we start by circumventing the shortage in firm demographics data by merging, for the first time in Tunisia, administrative files based on continuous reporting of fiscal affiliation of private firms with the register of firm affiliates at the National Social Security Fund in order to compile a series on the number of entering, exiting and total firms with 10 workers or more, by year and by industry over the 1996–2004 period. The empirical findings of the paper establish three basic stylized facts: a relatively high firm churning in all Tunisian manufacturing sectors; firm turnover is principally driven by small- and medium-sized firms; and the creative destruction process is the predominant factor driving entry and exit in many manufacturing industries. Moreover, the combination of heterogeneity in productivity and easy entry and exit of firms is found to characterize the manufacturing sector in Tunisia. Accordingly, obstacles to free entry and exit slow the reallocation process and are likely to slow productivity growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 189-208 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000097 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000097 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:189-208 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Simister Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Simister Author-Name: Hassan Zaky Author-X-Name-First: Hassan Author-X-Name-Last: Zaky Title: Wife’s Earnings, Child Nutrition, and Gender-Based Violence in Egypt Abstract: This paper investigates the “children fare better” view, that children tend to be better fed if their mother has control over household decisions, using three household surveys in Egypt. It suggests an approach which might improve current economic analysis of household spending, by incorporating “Gender-Based Violence”: there appears to be a link between undernutrition of household members, and violence against mothers (violent men often misspend a large fraction of household income on themselves). Child welfare improves dramatically if the child’s mother earns enough for food. Unfortunately, few mothers in Egypt are employed, putting many children at risk. Agencies such as the Egyptian government could protect children, by paying child benefit to mothers or encouraging female employment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 209-226 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000103 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000103 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:209-226 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mazin A. M. Al Janabi Author-X-Name-First: Mazin A. M. Author-X-Name-Last: Al Janabi Title: Market Liquidity and Strategic Asset Allocation: Applications to GCC Stock Exchanges Abstract: This paper aims at investigating issues of asset allocation and equity trading risk in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. The intent of this work is to bridge the gap in current asset market liquidity risk management methodologies and to assist GCC financial institutions in developing proactive asset market liquidity risk management techniques to assess potential market risks in light of the upshots of the current financial crisis. Using daily data of main market indicators for the period 2004–2009 and the Liquidity-Adjusted Value at Risk (L-VaR) model, the author finds that the distribution of the equity returns in the GCC stock markets is far from being normal and thus justifies using the L-VaR model, combined with other methods such as stress-testing, to incorporate the other remaining risks. Furthermore, the author shows that although there is a clear departure from normality, the asset market liquidity risk can be estimated without the need of complex mathematical and analytical procedures. To this end, several financial modeling strategies are achieved with the objective of creating a realistic framework of equity trading risk measurement in addition to the instigation of a practical iterative optimization technique for the calculation of maximum authorized L-VaR limits, subject to meaningful real-word operational constraints. Our modeling technique and empirical analysis have important implications for the GCC financial markets and can aid local financial institutions in developing advanced internal risk models and in complying with the requirements of the Basel II committee on capital adequacy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 227-254 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000115 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000115 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:227-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lahcen Achy Author-X-Name-First: Lahcen Author-X-Name-Last: Achy Title: Corporate Capital Structure Choices in Mena: Empirical Evidence from Non-Listed Firms in Morocco Abstract: Based on their perceptions, more than three quarters of Moroccan manufacturing firms have identified access to finance as one of the major constraints affecting their performance. However, compared to a number of emerging countries, Moroccan firms appear relatively undercapitalized and more reliant on external finance. These two findings seem contradictory and have very different policy implications. The purpose of this paper is to provide a rigorous understanding of the rationale behind financial choices made by Moroccan firms, and assess the severity of financial constraints they effectively face. The paper uses a panel dataset covering 550 non-listed manufacturing firms over the period 1998–2003 and investigates both long-term and short-term measures of leverage with the objective of understanding the factors that shape “debt-equity choice” as well as “debt maturity structure”.Our analysis reveals the existence of a negative relationship between asset tangibility and both aggregate leverage and short-term debt ratio. However, no clear cut relationship between asset tangibility and long-term debt is uncovered. Small firms tend to increase their debt instead of opening their capital to outside investors and larger firms seem to rely much more on their retained earnings for their long-term financial needs. For short-term debt, size does not appear to matter. The impact of growth is positive on short-term leverage and irrelevant for long-term leverage. Finally, profitability exerts a positive effect on long-term leverage and a negative one on short-term leverage. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 255-273 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000127 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000127 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:255-273 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sami Bibi Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Bibi Author-Name: Mustapha K. Nabli Author-X-Name-First: Mustapha K. Author-X-Name-Last: Nabli Title: Income Inequality in the Arab Region: Data and Measurement, Patterns and Trends Abstract: This paper provides a review of empirical knowledge about income inequality in the Arab region, focusing primarily on the issues of data and measurement, and the characterization of its patterns and trends. The review shows good progress in the availability of data and quality of measurement. However, the region remains far behind progress being achieved worldwide in terms of coverage and comparability across countries, improvements in quality and content of data, and, more importantly, accessibility of available micro-data to scholars. Within these data constraints and limitations, the available evidence shows moderately high levels of inequality in terms of household expenditure compared to other regions of the world. The patterns of inequality show quite significant variation across countries. One striking result is the weak time variability of the inequality indexes in most of the countries of the region. Alternative measures of welfare distribution such as of horizontal inequality, polarization or inequality of opportunity have been widely used worldwide to supplement the Lorentz-based inequality criteria, but such measures are very scarce in Arab countries. We finally offer suggestions for a research agenda to better our understanding about the nature and determinants of inequality in the region. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 275-314 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000139 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000139 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:275-314 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Author Index Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 315-315 Issue: 2 Volume: 1 Year: 2009 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812009000140 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812009000140 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:1:y:2009:i:2:p:315-315 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lobna M. AbdelLatif Author-X-Name-First: Lobna M. Author-X-Name-Last: AbdelLatif Author-Name: Mohamed Ramadan Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Ramadan Author-Name: Sarah A. Elbakry Author-X-Name-First: Sarah A. Author-X-Name-Last: Elbakry Title: How gender biased are female-headed household transfers in Egypt? Abstract: In this paper, we claim that the policy of targeting female-headed households’ (FHHs) may generate bias against women in male-headed households (MHHs) who may be more poverty-constrained. Targeting FHHs may have the merit of clear targeting; however, it doesn’t address the feminization phenomenon of poverty; instead, it presents unequal opportunities for women in other families by less favouring them. We argue that proper targeting could be derived based on the number of women in families. The study applied a Gender-Based Poverty Detection Model to provide a good detection of household poverty and show that the vulnerable characteristics of females could be more influenced by the general household’s poverty than females’ headed households. Model results showed that not all FHHs are poor, and that some de jure MHHs include a large number of poor females. This means that targeting only de jure FHHs might result in resource leakage to the non-poor and under-coverage of poor de facto FHHs and poor females in MHHs. The analysis asserts that female headship is not always a correlate of poverty in Egypt. An important correlate, however, is the share of female members in the household. This raises questions about the effectiveness of social assistance and poverty alleviation programmes in Egypt in targeting female poverty. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 165-180 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668162 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:165-180 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla Author-X-Name-First: Ebaidalla M. Author-X-Name-Last: Ebaidalla Author-Name: Mohammed Ehaj Mustafa Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed Ehaj Mustafa Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Title: Determinants and impact of household's out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure in Sudan: evidence from urban and rural population Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of the out-of-pocket health expenditure and catastrophic health spending incurred by Sudanese households. It also investigates the effect of out-of-pocket health expenditure on poverty incidence among households. The study uses 2009s National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) data. The results show that factors such as household’s income, educational achievement of household’s head, household size, number of household’s members over 65 years old are the most important factors influencing out-of-pocket health expenditure. The results also indicate that the presence of elderly and children among the household’s members increases the risk of incurring catastrophic health expenditure. Moreover, the empirical results document that out-of-pocket health expenditure pushes a considerable portion of Sudanese households into poverty. Finally, the paper ends with some recommendations that aim to assist policymakers in designing an appropriate health financing strategy to protect households against the risk of out-of-pocket health expenditure and to reduce its impoverishment impact. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 181-198 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1668163 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:181-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mesbah Fathy Sharaf Author-X-Name-First: Mesbah Fathy Author-X-Name-Last: Sharaf Author-Name: Ahmed Shoukry Rashad Author-X-Name-First: Ahmed Shoukry Author-X-Name-Last: Rashad Author-Name: Elhussien Ibrahim Mansour Author-X-Name-First: Elhussien Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Mansour Title: Son Preference and Child Under nutrition in the Arab Countries: Is There a Gender Bias against Girls? Abstract: Although son preference has been demonstrated in the MENA region with different manifestations and at several phases of human development, the literature remains sparse as far as studies examining the early childhood phase are concerned. The current study aims to explore the presence of a gender bias in child nutrition status and its association with maternal son preference in three Arab countries; namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Yemen. Child nutritional status is measured using the Height-for-Age z-score (HAZ). To examine the presence of gender bias across the entire nutritional distribution, we utilized a quantile regression framework. We use data from the most recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey on a nationally representative sample of children aged 0–4 years. Descriptive statistics show that 21.5% of the mothers demonstrate son preference in Yemen compared to 19.10% in Jordan and 13.26% in Egypt. Results of the baseline OLS model demonstrate a robust pro-girl nutrition bias in the three countries. However, results of the quantile regression model show that this pro-girl nutrition bias is only prevalent at the lower segment of the conditional HAZ distribution for Jordan and Yemen and is prevalent across the whole conditional HAZ distribution for Egypt. We also find no statistically significant association between maternal son preference and gender bias in child nutrition in the three countries. Although son preference is manifested in several phases of human development in the MENA region, the current study finds no nutritional bias against girls in the examined countries at early childhood. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 199-219 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664837 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:199-219 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilker Domac Author-X-Name-First: Ilker Author-X-Name-Last: Domac Author-Name: Gultekin Isiklar Author-X-Name-First: Gultekin Author-X-Name-Last: Isiklar Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Title: On the potential and Limitations of monetary policy in Turkey Abstract: The use of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity around the globe and in Turkey has been receiving a flurry of attention. Calls for lower interest rates have become louder as the country’s private driven growth has slowed down. However, monetary policy faces the challenges of maintaining external stability and reviving domestic conditions, which could necessitate conflicting interest rate policies. To determine which goals are most suitable for monetary policy, one must understand the effects of monetary policy and its transmission channels to the macro economy. Our empirical results suggest that monetary policy in Turkey has fairly limited power to affect output growth, even in the short-run. We find that external factors – such as shocks to risk aversion and global growth – have a much stronger impact on economic activity in Turkey. These results seem to be in line with the strand of the literature, which highlights the importance of global financial cycles and argues that exchange rate flexibility alone is not enough to guarantee monetary autonomy in a world of large capital flows. Consequently, our empirical findings corroborate the notion that monetary policy should focus on its overriding objective of price stability, given Turkey’s greater exposure to supply shocks and pro-cyclicality of international finance. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 220-235 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664838 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:220-235 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: George Naufal Author-X-Name-First: George Author-X-Name-Last: Naufal Author-Name: Michael Malcolm Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Malcolm Author-Name: Vidya Diwakar Author-X-Name-First: Vidya Author-X-Name-Last: Diwakar Title: Armed conflict and child labor: evidence from Iraq Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between armed conflict intensity and child labor using household level data from Iraq and taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setup. Armed conflict intensity is measured by the number of deaths related to conflict, and child labor is separated by type of work: economic and household. After controlling for individual and household characteristics that determine child labor, we find that armed conflict intensity is associated with a higher likelihood of entry into economic work sufficient to qualify as child labor, but is not associated with entry into household child labor. However, conflict intensity is associated with marginal increases in hours worked for both types of activity. We also explore gender differences. These results provide further evidence of the long-term costs of war on households. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 236-250 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1672020 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:236-250 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Imad A. Moosa Author-X-Name-First: Imad A. Author-X-Name-Last: Moosa Title: Growth and environmental degradation in MENA countries: methodological issues and empirical evidence Abstract: A large number of studies on the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve for MENA countries have been conducted, producing (as expected) a mixed bag of results. Several econometric issues are considered with reference to estimates of the EKC for Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. These issues include the order of the polynomial, the validity of the log–log specification, cointegration and spurious correlation, missing variables, and the sensitivity and fragility of the results. It is concluded that the most serious issue is the sensitivity of the results to model specification and other factors, which is not considered in the MENA studies of the EKC. Robust results are produced with respect to the order of polynomial, estimation method and measurement of the income variable. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 251-269 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1673090 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:251-269 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Collier Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Collier Title: Ideas, networks and jobs: rebasing growth in the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: Oil rents are set to wane. In the MENA Region, the legacy of four decades of dependence on oil is an economy that is not generating enough opportunities for productive employment. This paper set out a policy agenda for gradual change that is cumulatively transformative. Directly, productivity can be increased by encouraging clusters of firms capable of innovation, linked to vocational training that equips a workforce with the skills that firms need. But the socio-political transformation from a rent-seeking economy to a skill-based economy is more complex, requiring both cultural and institutional change. This cannot be planned in detail: a transformation is a unique event subject to radical uncertainty. It calls for a process of rapid social learning based on experimentation. As the society adapts, new opportunities open, and the next steps clarify. I give examples of how an adaptable framework has been built elsewhere. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 270-276 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664843 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:270-276 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rohinton P. Medhora Author-X-Name-First: Rohinton P. Author-X-Name-Last: Medhora Title: Policy choices in the 21st century – where to start? Abstract: Based on the author’s keynote talk at the ERF’s 25th anniversary conference in Kuwait City (March 10–12, 2019), this paper outlines the research and policy dimensions of the fast-rising intangibles economy. The key features of such economic structures are – the centrality of (mostly proprietary) intellectual property; high upfront fronts for firms but near-zero marginal costs of production if successful; first-mover advantage especially if backed up by standard-setting; and handsome rewards for strategic behavior. There is no single route to success in such a world; in fact many successful countries have had ex ante daunting challenges not unknown among ERF countries. The ethos that drives the ERF has never been more essential than it is today. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 277-288 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1664839 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:277-288 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Author-X-Name-First: Klaus Author-X-Name-Last: Schmidt-Hebbel Title: Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 289-290 Issue: 2 Volume: 11 Year: 2019 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2019.1675020 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2019.1675020 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:11:y:2019:i:2:p:289-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ibrahim Elbadawi Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Elbadawi Author-Name: Raimundo Soto Author-X-Name-First: Raimundo Author-X-Name-Last: Soto Author-Name: Chahir Zaki Author-X-Name-First: Chahir Author-X-Name-Last: Zaki Title: Sovereign wealth funds and cross-border investment bias: the case of Arab countries Abstract: Assets managed by sovereign wealth funds (SWF) have grown nine-fold since 2002, reaching USD 8 trillion in 2018. Around 80% of these investments correspond to cross-border investments. SWFs of Arab countries, mainly oil-rich GCC economies, hold a sizable fraction of these funds (40%). Asset allocation, nevertheless, presents a significant anomaly: despite the presence of highly endowed Arab-owned SWFs, cross-border investment in Arab economies is negligible in terms of transactions as well as of value. We study the allocation decisions of SWFs, both in terms of the probability of investing abroad (extensive margin) as well as the level of investment (intensive margin). In particular, we ask whether SWF investment decisions, at both margins, are largely determined by economic factors – e.g. profitability and risk – or are also influenced by strategic considerations, such as geopolitical interests. Our findings show that, while foreign investors have a positive bias for the Arab destination countries at the extensive margin level, there is a negative bias against them at the intensive one. At the sectoral level, results are highly heterogeneous as some sectors are sensitive to institutions (e.g. industry and consumer discretionary), while others are insensitive, such as energy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-23 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1716429 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1716429 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:1-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Burcay Erus Author-X-Name-First: Burcay Author-X-Name-Last: Erus Title: Equivalence scales and the change in poverty levels across time: Turkish case Abstract: Equivalence scales are used to adjust household income for household size and composition differences. The literature on poverty calculations have found sensitivity of poverty measurements to the choice of equivalence scales. In this study, we aim to estimate the sensitivity of the Turkish poverty rate and its change over time to the choice of equivalence scales. To that end, Household Budget Survey micro-level data are used and poverty rates are calculated for different equivalence scales. Results show that poverty rates differ sharply with the scale parameter. The change in poverty over time varies in absolute terms with most scale parameter values but only for high values of scale as a ratio of the initial period. Characteristics of poor households also change with scale alternatives. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 24-34 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1717805 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1717805 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:24-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hager Farhoud Author-X-Name-First: Hager Author-X-Name-Last: Farhoud Author-Name: Lotfi Taleb Author-X-Name-First: Lotfi Author-X-Name-Last: Taleb Title: Causal relationship between current account and financial account: the case of Tunisia Abstract: The Tunisian economy during the last thirty years suffered from a chronic current account deficit. The present paper investigates the long and short-run dynamics between the surplus of the aggregated and disaggregated financial account and the persistent pattern of current account deficit in Tunisia over the period 1977–2009. Based on bounds testing cointegration approach using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), we found evidence supportive of long-run cointegration relationships between the current account and the financial account for both aggregated and disaggregated levels. The results also highlight that there is evidence of unidirectional causality from portfolio investment to the current account over the long-run. These findings suggest that the current account should be used by the Tunisian government as a control variable for capital flows and could be considered as valuable information for the liberalization of the financial account in Tunisia. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 35-56 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1719471 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1719471 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:35-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Riadh Ben Jelili Author-X-Name-First: Riadh Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Jelili Title: Does foreign direct investment affect growth in MENA countries? A semi-parametric fixed-effects approach Abstract: It is often asserted with confidence that foreign direct investment (FDI) is beneficial for economic growth, especially in the host developing economy. Nevertheless, there is no empirical consensus on a positive effect of FDI on host-country growth, nor on the direction of causation. One of the reasons behind the lack of consensus is likely the presence of nonlinearities in the FDI and growth relationship. Most of the previous studies either used the linear empirical growth model or tried to bypass the nonlinearity issue by using ad hoc procedures. However, it is also true that growth theory provides little guidance about the exact nature of nonlinearity. Consequently, it is almost impossible to determine the exact form of nonlinear specification that would be appropriate for all data sets and data ranges. The paper investigates this challenging question in empirical growth literature that is the impact of FDI in promoting economic growth in developing economies without adopting any ad hoc procedure to capture the nonlinearity in the FDI–growth relationship. Based on a dualistic growth framework and a partial linear regression approach, it is possible to separate measures for sector externality and factor productivity effects between the two sectors (exports and non-exports sector). Sectoral externality is defined as a function of real FDI stocks per capita. Thereby, the adopted theoretical framework allows capturing both direct and indirect effects of FDI on economic growth across eight MENA countries during the period 1990–2016. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 57-72 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1719700 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1719700 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:57-72 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hany Abdel-Latif Author-X-Name-First: Hany Author-X-Name-Last: Abdel-Latif Author-Name: Mahmoud El-Gamal Author-X-Name-First: Mahmoud Author-X-Name-Last: El-Gamal Title: Rising inequality and de-democratization Abstract: The literature on economic determinants of democratization has identified most importantly the positive effect of economic development and the negative effect of income inequality. We confirm these results using more recent data and dynamic panel models. In this regard, the 2018 World Inequality Report has noted that inequality is highest in the Middle East, where it has stayed stable at that high level for the past several decades. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 73-83 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1720333 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1720333 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:73-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada Author-X-Name-Last: Martínez-Zarzoso Title: Exporting and firm productivity: evidence for Egypt and Morocco Abstract: This paper investigates the link between exporting and importing activities and firm performance using a rich dataset on Egyptian and Moroccan firms. We test the export premium, self-selection and learning-by-exporting hypotheses using a number of firm characteristics. Our analysis also includes importing activities as a source of learning and considers their effects on productivity changes. A differences-in-differences matching estimator is used to address the endogeneity bias of target variables. The main results for Egyptian firms echo those reported for other countries using firm-level data, namely exporters are larger and more productive than non-exporters. In contrast, Moroccan exporters and non-exporters are strikingly similar. More specifically, no evidence is found of pre or post-entry differences in labour productivity for Moroccan firms. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 84-100 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1723297 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1723297 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:84-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abduraawf Hadili Author-X-Name-First: Abduraawf Author-X-Name-Last: Hadili Author-Name: Roman Raab Author-X-Name-First: Roman Author-X-Name-Last: Raab Author-Name: Jan Wenzelburger Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Wenzelburger Title: Trade liberalisation, governance, and the balance of payments: evidence from the Arab Maghreb Union Abstract: This paper explores the impact of trade liberalisation on the economies of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU) as they attempt to reform their economies by liberalising trade with other nations in order to promote growth and increase welfare. We investigate the time period from 1995 to 2009 in terms of export growth, import growth, the balance of trade, and the balance of payments by using two different estimation techniques: ordinary least square, and panel-corrected standard-error models. Our empirical evidence shows that trade liberalisation did not enhance export growth in AMU countries during the given period. Trade liberalisation worsened the balance of trade and the balance of payments. Governance indicators turn out to be important factors in order to achieve the intended effects of trade liberalisation. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 101-130 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1731200 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1731200 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:101-130 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lant Pritchett Author-X-Name-First: Lant Author-X-Name-Last: Pritchett Title: The future of jobs is facing one, maybe two, of the biggest price distortions ever Abstract: Discussions of the future of jobs are concerned that technological change will displace labor and particularly jobs. In this work it is rarely remarked on the strangeness that some of the most globally scarce factors of high level technical expertise, capability to innovate, and entrepreneurial talent are devoted to economizing on – reducing the demand for – one of the most globally abundant factors: low to medium skill labor. I show that policy based barriers to the mobility of labor have created the largest single price distortion in history and that this price distortion induces biased technological change. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 131-156 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1714347 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1714347 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:131-156 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rana Hendy Author-X-Name-First: Rana Author-X-Name-Last: Hendy Author-Name: Mahmoud Mohieldin Author-X-Name-First: Mahmoud Author-X-Name-Last: Mohieldin Title: On ideas and economic policy: a survey of MENA economists Abstract: This paper examines how economic ideas have been shaped throughout history and the influence of these on the formulation of economic policy. We collect both quantitative and qualitative data from economists who are originally from the Middle East and North Africa region or working on the region. We find that economists and their ideas are more likely to be influenced by multiple schools of thought than adhere to one school. This multiplicity spills over into the type of solutions proposed to economic problems and thus policy implications. One of the main recommendations of this study is that there is a need for the development of economics and economists to recognize the impact of political and social issues that are not easy to grasp through modeling. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 157-176 Issue: 1 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1716619 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1716619 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:157-176 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Author-Name: Shaimaa Yassin Author-X-Name-First: Shaimaa Author-X-Name-Last: Yassin Title: Job creation or labor absorption? An analysis of private sector job growth in Egypt Abstract: Creating jobs, especially good jobs, is one of the greatest challenges facing Egypt. This paper investigates the nature of job growth in Egypt, including the firm, industry, and worker characteristics that are related to job growth. Using data from Egypt’s establishment censuses linked to various firm and labor surveys, we examine job growth in private sector establishments over 1996–2017. We find that job growth has primarily followed a labor absorption paradigm, with job growth unrelated to productivity and highest for firms with more informal employment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 177-207 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1753978 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1753978 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:177-207 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lucia Hanmer Author-X-Name-First: Lucia Author-X-Name-Last: Hanmer Author-Name: Eliana Rubiano Author-X-Name-First: Eliana Author-X-Name-Last: Rubiano Author-Name: Julieth Santamaria Author-X-Name-First: Julieth Author-X-Name-Last: Santamaria Author-Name: Diana J. Arango Author-X-Name-First: Diana J. Author-X-Name-Last: Arango Title: How does poverty differ among refugees? Taking a gender lens to the data on Syrian refugees in Jordan Abstract: Many reports document the hardships experienced by refugees, highlighting that women and children are a highly vulnerable group. However, empirical analysis of how gender inequality impacts poverty among refugees is limited. We combine registration data for Syrian refugees in Jordan collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees with data from its Home Visit surveys to analyze income poverty rates among refugee households. We use an approach that captures the disruption to household structures that results from displacement to evaluate the poverty impacts, comparing refugee households with male and female principal applicants (PAs). We find that distinguishing between different types of principal applicant households is important. Half of the female PAs for nonnuclear households live below the poverty line compared to only one-fifth of male PAs for nonnuclear household. PAs who are widows and widowers also face high poverty risks. Households that have formed because of the unpredictable dynamics of forced displacement, such as unaccompanied children and single caregivers, emerge as extremely vulnerable groups. We show that differences in household composition and individual attributes of male and female PAs are not the only factors driving increased poverty risk. Gender-specific barriers which prevent women accessing labor markets are also a factor. Our findings show that gender inequality amplifies the poverty experienced by a significant number of refugees. Our approach can be used to help policy-makers design more effective programs of assistance and find durable solutions for displaced populations. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 208-242 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1753995 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1753995 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:208-242 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shireen AlAzzawi Author-X-Name-First: Shireen Author-X-Name-Last: AlAzzawi Title: Regional and income disparities in cost of living changes: evidence from Egypt Abstract: Inflation has been rising in Egypt since 2007, and reached record levels in 2017. It was more pronounced in rural Egypt and likely hurt the poor proportionately more, since rising food prices were a major factor behind higher prices over this period. Moreover, rising prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), do not accurately measure changes in the cost of living. When inflation is high, people resort to substitution to hedge themselves against a declining standard of living. Regardless of price changes, habit formation and taste changes can also render the fixed basket of the CPI less representative over time. To accurately monitor changes in the cost of attaining a given utility level, I constructed True Cost of Living Indices (TCLI) and used them to examine the regional and income disparities in cost of living changes, and the extent of the bias in the CPI. Results confirmed that cost of living increases were higher in rural regions, and that there were far larger regional disparities in cost of living increases over time using the TCLI. The bias in the CPI was quite substantial, ranging from underestimating the change in cost of living by 1.86 percentage points, to overestimating it by 1.05 percentage points, depending on region. Finally, I found strong evidence that households at the bottom of the expenditure distribution fared much worse. Depending on region, cost of living increases were 2.8 to 4.1 percentage points higher per year for the poorest urban households than for the richest, during the period under study. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 243-267 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1770476 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770476 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:243-267 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic Author-X-Name-First: Casto Martín Author-X-Name-Last: Montero Kuscevic Title: Female unemployment in Lebanon: a time series analysis Abstract: This research investigates the relationship between output and unemployment for Lebanon for the post-civil war period. Surprisingly, our results show that unemployment is not contemporaneously affected by changes in gross domestic product (i.e. no Okun’s Law), but only after a lag; however, in the long-run total unemployment and male unemployment are inversely related to changes in output. A puzzling result is the unresponsiveness of female unemployment to GDP both in the short run and in the long-run. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach, we try to shed some lights to explain this irregularity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 268-283 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756097 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:268-283 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hamid Noghanibehambari Author-X-Name-First: Hamid Author-X-Name-Last: Noghanibehambari Author-Name: Masha Rahnamamoghadam Author-X-Name-First: Masha Author-X-Name-Last: Rahnamamoghadam Title: Is income inequality reflected in consumption inequality in Iran? Abstract: This paper presents a descriptive analysis of the evolution of labor supply, income, and consumption inequality in Iran using the 2005–2015 waves of the survey of Household Expenditure and Income (HIES). We document that the sharp decline in income and consumption inequality after the Subsidy Reform in 2010 was accompanied by a slight but persistent rise in respective inequality measures. We find that not only the level of income inequality is higher than consumption inequality but also that the fluctuations in income inequality are larger than those of consumption inequality. Moreover, income and consumption inequalities among rural households are higher compared to urban families. Finally, we show that within-group inequality, the inequality due to circumstances, can explain a considerable portion of the divergence observed between income and consumption inequalities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 284-303 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1770488 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770488 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:284-303 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Youssouf Kiendrebeogo Author-X-Name-First: Youssouf Author-X-Name-Last: Kiendrebeogo Title: Learning by exporting or self-selection into exporting? Abstract: This paper explores the export-productivity relationship using firm-level data from Egypt over the 2003–2008 period. Previous studies using data from developed countries suggest that self-selection is the main driver of the exporter premium. Using a propensity-score matching difference-in-difference approach, we find that both labor productivity and total factor productivity are significantly higher for exporters than for non-exporters. On average, labor productivity and total factor productivity are, respectively, 43% and 61% higher for exporting firms than for domestically-oriented firms. Accounting for the level of development of destination countries, we find that this export premium is due to a learning-by-exporting process rather than just a self-selection of more productive firms into exporting. In contrast to exporters to OECD countries, exporters to Non-OECD countries self-select into export markets, signaling the importance of the technical assistance from OECD buyers. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 304-325 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1756105 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1756105 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:304-325 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Viviane Naimy Author-X-Name-First: Viviane Author-X-Name-Last: Naimy Author-Name: Ruba Kattan Author-X-Name-First: Ruba Author-X-Name-Last: Kattan Title: The impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system Abstract: This paper applies the econometric Chow test to determine the impact of the recent oil price decline on the GCC banking system for the period 2011–2017. Structural breaks in the performance of selected sample GCC banks, Saudi, UAE, and Qatar banks, are tested upon the occurrence of the recent oil price decline in 2014 for different aspects of bank performance: profitability, liquidity, credit quality, and capitalization. While Qatar banks are found to be resilient showing continuous performance over time, the Saudi banks are found to be significantly impacted by the decline experiencing negative structural breaks at the credit quality level but positive breaks at the capitalization level. However, UAE banks are found to have experienced negative breaks at the profitability, credit quality, and capitalization levels. The paper provides GCC banks with valuable insights about what bank aspects could be negatively impacted in the event of negative oil price shocks and what aspects could help mitigate the impact. This helps banks introduce necessary changes and preventive actions to better absorb future shocks. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 326-339 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1770564 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1770564 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:326-339 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kassim M. Dakhlallah Author-X-Name-First: Kassim M. Author-X-Name-Last: Dakhlallah Title: Public debt and fiscal sustainability: the cyclically adjusted balance in the case of Lebanon Abstract: Lebanon’s high debt-to-GDP ratio and persistent overall budget deficit expose the entire financial system to vulnerability. Unless the country generates enough revenue to meet its gross financing needs, the prospect of borrowing more remains strong. Given the complexity of the Lebanese economy and debt structure, the formulation of fiscal and monetary policy is difficult and costly. Hence, policymakers are continuously confronted with difficult choices and must select the choice that is the least destructive. The choice between short-term economic stability and medium-term fiscal sustainability is a clear example of the dilemmas that confront policymakers. In addition, procyclicality and its repercussions on economic growth and the lack of responses to fiscal needs are matters of significant importance for public debt and fiscal sustainability. Hence, this study provides an in-depth analysis of the difficulties facing the Lebanese economy as it tries to sustain its public debt and the overall fiscal deficit. The study calculates the cyclically adjusted balance to analyze the appropriateness of fiscal policy and to assess the role of the automatic stabilizers. Additionally, the study employs a multivariate vector autoregression to forecast the variables in the simple debt model and to identify the impulses needed from various endogenous shocks. The derived results demonstrate that fiscal policy is predominately procyclical, that policymakers risked short-term economic stability for the sake of medium-term fiscal sustainability, and that unless the government adjusts its fiscal behavior, triggers automatic stabilizers, and negotiates a better deal with resident lenders, the economy will further deteriorate. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 340-359 Issue: 2 Volume: 12 Year: 2020 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2020.1773076 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2020.1773076 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:340-359 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Author-Name: Ida A. Mirzaie Author-X-Name-First: Ida A. Author-X-Name-Last: Mirzaie Title: Macroeconomic policies and the Iranian economy in the era of sanctions Abstract: This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policies on the Iranian economy. The study covers the time between 1978-2017. The results illustrate the role of the money supply and government spending in supporting growth, although contributing to inflationary pressures in the long run, attesting to supply-side constraints. In the short-run, policies have aimed to provide support to the economy in the face of continued fluctuations with the oil price and spillovers from the geopolitical tensions attributed to sanctions. The exchange rate has played a key role in absorbing, but at times magnifying the adverse effects of these tensions. Continued deterioration of the fundamentals of the Iranian economy forced an official devaluation as the exchange rate proved to be misaligned with the fundamentals of the economy against the backdrop of the limited capacity of the Central Bank to continue to intervene to defend stability. In the meantime, a parallel exchange rate market has been flourishing to satisfy the market’s needs as culminated in the spread between the market exchange rate and the official exchange rate. A wider spread between the parallel market rate and the official rate has signified overvaluation of the rial and proved to be a major source of inflationary expectations and pressures. Wider spread has demanded frequent interventions by the Central Bank to defend the official rate and ultimately has forced an official devaluation of the exchange rate, further increasing inflationary pressures with negative effects on the output supply given high dependency on imports for consumption and investment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 78-98 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898190 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898190 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:78-98 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dorsaf Sridi Author-X-Name-First: Dorsaf Author-X-Name-Last: Sridi Author-Name: Wafa Ghardallou Author-X-Name-First: Wafa Author-X-Name-Last: Ghardallou Title: Remittances and disaggregated country risk ratings in Tunisia: an ARDL approach Abstract: Tunisia is currently facing political, economic and financial problems which have an impact on the flow of remittances. This study is the first attempt to give a thorough analysis of a two-way relationship between workers’ remittances and ICRG disaggregated country risk ratings (such as economic, financial and political risks) in Tunisia in short and long run, spanning the period 1984–2016. In an attempt to achieve this key objective, an ARDL approach combined with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests, and Wald test are adopted to investigate this linkage. The results show the presence of a long-run relationship. In addition, it could be deduced that in the long-run, economic risks have a negative impact on remittances, whereas in the short-run, they have a positive impact. The financial risk increases remittances because it includes variables related to remittances such as exchange rate stability. A higher level of remittances carries a higher level of financial risk in the short and long-runs. These results engage policy-makers to minimize this negative effect and channel remittances towards investment purposes. Results also indicate that, in response to an increase in remittances, the political risk decreases in the short run but increases in the long run. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 191-211 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1897324 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1897324 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:191-211 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ridha Nouira Author-X-Name-First: Ridha Author-X-Name-Last: Nouira Author-Name: Mohamed Kouni Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Kouni Title: Optimal government size and economic growth in developing and MENA countries: A dynamic panel threshold analysis Abstract: The research for this paper was conducted in order to investigate the optimal size of government as well as its effect on economic growth in selected MENA and developing countries over the period from 1988 to 2016. The results reveal that there is a government expenditure threshold effect on economic growth for all panel groups. Indeed, in accordance with an important body of recent literature, the threshold is between 10% and 30% for the whole sample, between 20% and 30% for MENA countries and between 10% and 20% for developing countries. The results obtained from the CS-ARDL model, recently developed by Chudik et al. (2017. Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth? Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1), 135–150. doi:10.1162/REST_a_00593), also showed that the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth is non-linear. Hence, we have found evidence of an inverted U shaped relationship between government expenditure and economic growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 59-77 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898231 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898231 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:59-77 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Author-Name: Elizabeth E. Davis Author-X-Name-First: Elizabeth E. Author-X-Name-Last: Davis Title: The Arab inequality puzzle: the role of income sources in Egypt and Tunisia Abstract: Egypt and Tunisia are perceived to have high levels of inequality, yet based on standard measures, inequality in these two countries is not unusually high. In this study we explore a different dimension of inequality in Egypt and Tunisia by using a more complete measure of income and decomposing inequality by income sources (factor components). We find that higher-income households have more income sources than lower-income ones. Informal wage work and earnings from household enterprises are more common in Egypt than Tunisia, while formal wage work, pensions, and social assistance are more common in Tunisia. Social assistance does little to offset income inequality in either country. Enterprise earnings (in Egypt) and agricultural earnings (in Tunisia) as well as rent and other capital income in both countries play a large role in inequality. High inequality in these non-wage income sources and unequal access to income sources tied to wealth and capital may help explain why inequality is perceived to be high. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-26 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898233 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898233 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:1-26 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Reza Author-X-Name-Last: Farzanegan Author-Name: Pooya Alaedini Author-X-Name-First: Pooya Author-X-Name-Last: Alaedini Author-Name: Khayyam Azizimehr Author-X-Name-First: Khayyam Author-X-Name-Last: Azizimehr Author-Name: Mohammad M. Habibpour Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad M. Author-X-Name-Last: Habibpour Title: Effect of oil revenues on size and income of Iranian middle class Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of oil revenues on the middle-class size and income in Iran. Following Kharas (2017. The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class: An update. The Brookings Institution), it uses an absolute measure to define the middle class as those who earn between US$11 and US$110 per day (2011 PPP). The study employs annual time series data for 1965–2017 and a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model along with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses. Findings indicate that the response of the middle class to positive oil-income shocks in Iran is positive and significant. It is further shown that the channels of international non-oil trade, service sector, and overall economic development are important in understanding the relationship between the oil income and the middle class in Iran. These results are robust when controlling for other channels in the nexus of oil income and middle class as well as alternative definitions of middle-class income based on relative measures obtained from Iran’s income and expenditure household surveys. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 27-58 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898232 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898232 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:27-58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yasemin Dildar Author-X-Name-First: Yasemin Author-X-Name-Last: Dildar Title: Gendered patterns of industrialization in MENA Abstract: This paper analyzes different trajectories followed by Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries with regard to feminization of the labor force. It uses accounting decomposition analysis for the manufacturing sector employment in eight MENA countries from 1983 to 2013. Overall feminization has been weak in the region, even for the best-performing countries. The trends in feminization are driven by labor-intensive industries, particularly textile and clothing, with Jordan being an exception with feminization in capital-intensive industries. As traditionally ‘female’ jobs lose their significance with structural transformation and capital deepening, manufacturing employment opportunities for women disappear, confirming the defeminization literature. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 128-149 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898188 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898188 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:128-149 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Chauffour Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Pierre Author-X-Name-Last: Chauffour Author-Name: Jose L. Diaz-Sanchez Author-X-Name-First: Jose L. Author-X-Name-Last: Diaz-Sanchez Title: Tackling market distortions to rise productivity: a study using firm-level manufacturing sector data from Morocco Abstract: This paper studies the effect of market distortions in the manufacturing sector in Morocco. Recent microdata are used to calculate the extent of resource misallocation associated to these distortions and the potential total factor productivity (TFP) gain resulting from their removal. Market distortions in the manufacturing sector in Morocco are higher compared with developed countries and slightly more important compared with other developing countries, such as China and India. These distortions decreased between 2007 and 2013. Full liberalization would raise TFP by about 84%. If distortions are removed to the level of selected developed countries with better resource allocation, the increase in TFP would be of 56%. The paper also suggests that industries that are more opened to competition such as textiles industries present lower levels of market distortions compared with more protected industries with relatively little competition, such as the food industry. Besides, some evidence is provided showing that smaller firms face more extensive distortions compared to medium and larger firms. The main results of the paper are robust to an alternative estimation that uses a different methodological framework with a less extensive theoretical framework. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 172-190 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898230 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898230 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:172-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Karim Belcaid Author-X-Name-First: Karim Author-X-Name-Last: Belcaid Author-Name: Ahmed El Ghini Author-X-Name-First: Ahmed Author-X-Name-Last: El Ghini Title: ‘Macro-finance determinants and the stock market development: evidence from Morocco’ Abstract: This paper focuses on the role of the macroeconomic outlook in explaining the returns volatility from 1998 to 2018 in Morocco. Our findings show that the inclusion of low-frequency macroeconomic information can improve the explaining ability, particularly for the long-term variance component. Information in some indicators which represent forward-looking variables (i.e. international economic situation, interest rates, exchange rates and inflation) seem to take into account the current economic situation, and remain useful in the Moroccan stock market development. Nevertheless, the historical realized volatility exceeds all models with macro-finance data in terms of explaining the long-term volatility. Therefore, it is noteworthy that investors and decision makers are considered to be more affected by the stock results, namely the past returns performance and the historical volatility. In general, modeling the long-term volatility component has a great potential and is very useful for portfolio selection, hedging decisions and macroeconomic risk management. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 99-127 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898191 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898191 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:99-127 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: The Magda Kandil Research Prize Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 212-213 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1935423 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1935423 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:212-213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yılmaz Kılıçaslan Author-X-Name-First: Yılmaz Author-X-Name-Last: Kılıçaslan Author-Name: Uğur Aytun Author-X-Name-First: Uğur Author-X-Name-Last: Aytun Author-Name: Oytun Meçik Author-X-Name-First: Oytun Author-X-Name-Last: Meçik Title: Global value chain integration and productivity: the case of Turkish manufacturing firms Abstract: In this study, we examine how firms’ positions (supplier, final, or both) in both global and domestic value chains (GVC and DVC) affect their productivity. This is said to be the first attempt in exploring the impact of the integration of firms on the GVCs on productivity generation in the Turkish manufacturing industry at the firm-level. The analysis is based on firm-level data obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and covers the period from 2003 to 2015. The data used in the analysis includes all firms employing 20 or more employees in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Our findings based on both fixed-effects and GMM estimations show that while supplier position on the domestic chain has a negative effect on productivity, the same position in GVC vanishes this effect. The final firm position in the GVC, on the other hand, provide more benefits to SMEs than to large-scale firms. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 150-171 Issue: 1 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1898189 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1898189 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:150-171 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mehmet Serkan Tosun Author-X-Name-First: Mehmet Serkan Author-X-Name-Last: Tosun Author-Name: Serdar Yilmaz Author-X-Name-First: Serdar Author-X-Name-Last: Yilmaz Title: Centralization, Decentralization and Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the most centralized government structures in the world. In this paper, we examine the causes of decentralization in the region by conducting a cross-country regression analysis. We use panel data for a set of MENA countries to understand the factors behind heavy centralization. Our findings show that external conflicts constitute a major roadblock to decentralization in the region. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-14 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000150 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000150 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:1-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Valérie Berenger Author-X-Name-First: Valérie Author-X-Name-Last: Berenger Title: Multidimensional Fuzzy Poverty and Pro-Poor Growth Measures in Nonmonetary Dimensions in Egypt Between 1995 and 2005 Abstract: The main goal of this paper is to adopt a multidimensional approach to poverty that goes beyond focusing on a unidimensional measure of income or expenditure when attempting to ascertain the main aspects of the living conditions of households. In order to obtain multidimensional poverty measures the paper uses an approach based on fuzzy sets. This methodology is applied to data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for the years 1995 and 2005 in order to obtain an aggregated index of the Standard of Living for each household. The evolution of the Standard of Living of households between 1995 and 2005 as well as the uneven progress registered in the index of education as assessed by Egyptian HDR (2008) lead us to investigate the impact of non- income growth on poverty. Thus, following the study of Grosse et al. (2008), extended growth incidence curves (Ravallion and Chen, 2003) are applied to the index of the Standard of Living and to education in order to assess if progress has been biased in favour of the poor. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 15-38 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000204 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000204 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:15-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Author-Name: Christine Binzel Author-X-Name-First: Christine Author-X-Name-Last: Binzel Author-Name: May Gadallah Author-X-Name-First: May Author-X-Name-Last: Gadallah Title: Transitions to Employment and Marriage Among Young Men in Egypt Abstract: We examine in this paper the transition from school to work and the transition to marriage among young men with at least a secondary education in Egypt, with particular attention to how the first transition affects the second. In examining the transition from school to work, we analyze the determinants of the duration of transition to first employment after school completion, as well as the type and quality of job obtained in such employment. We then move to an examination of the determinants of further mobility to a second job. In examining the transition to marriage, we investigate the effect of time to the first job and the time to the first good job, if any, on the timing of marriage, controlling for cohort of birth, education, family background and community-level variables. We find that the duration of transition to first employment has fallen over time, primarily because of the reduced availability of formal employment, especially public employment, making it less worthwhile for young men to remain jobless searching for such employment. Having access to work in a family enterprise reduces significantly the duration of transition from school to work as does the need to be the main breadwinner of the family. While education beyond the secondary level has no significant effect on the duration of the transition, it does significantly affect the probability of getting a good job and a formal job, as a first job. The hazard of transition to a second job is negatively associated with the time it takes to get a first job, but that is primarily because it is negatively associated with the quality of the first job and the fact that it takes longer to get good first jobs. Our findings relating to the transition to marriage confirm both the importance of early entry into the job market and of obtaining good jobs for early transition into marriage. However, if delayed entry (due to search) raises the hazard of getting a good job, it may actually be a worthwhile strategy, from the point of view of curbing the delay in marriage, for an individual to spend more time in job search. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 39-88 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000162 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000162 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:39-88 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel Egel Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Egel Author-Name: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Author-X-Name-First: Djavad Author-X-Name-Last: Salehi-Isfahani Title: Youth Transitions to Employment and Marriage in Iran Abstract: Iran’s young men and women face serious challenges in their transitions to employment and marriage. We study the factors that affect these transitions using the 2005 School-to-Work Transition Survey (SWTS). As this survey contains detailed retrospective data of education, employment, and marital outcomes for youth ages 15–29, it provides a new and valuable tool for exploring the challenges facing these youth. In our analysis of the transition to employment, which employs discrete-time hazard models and probit models of women’s desire and actual labor force participation, we find that (1) the duration of unemployment increases secularly with men’s but not women’s education, (2) parental background significantly affects men but not women, and (3) labor force participation of a mother is the strongest predictor of a daughter’s labor force participation. For the transition to marriage, we find that job stability is the most important determinant of the age of marriage, as both years of employment and high quality employment contracts accelerate the marriage transition. Among women we find that the transition to marriage is delayed significantly by both work experience and increased education. We discuss the relevance of these findings in designing policies to help these youth in their transitions. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 89-120 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000198 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000198 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:89-120 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nisreen Salti Author-X-Name-First: Nisreen Author-X-Name-Last: Salti Author-Name: Jad Chaaban Author-X-Name-First: Jad Author-X-Name-Last: Chaaban Title: On the Poverty and Equity Implications of a Rise in the Value Added Tax Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a rise in the Value Added Tax (VAT) on poverty and inequality in Lebanon. The paper develops an empirical model based on consumer demand theory and uses only household survey data on expenditures and spatial price indexes. The simulation results, using own and cross price demand elasticities estimated with an Almost Ideal Demand System, show that the proposed VAT rate increases will have a non-negligible impact on poverty and inequality in Lebanon, despite current VAT exemptions. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 121-138 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000174 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000174 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:121-138 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Houssem Eddine Chebbi Author-X-Name-First: Houssem Eddine Author-X-Name-Last: Chebbi Title: Long and Short–Run Linkages Between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in Tunisia Abstract: This paper provides some insights into the linkages between energy consumption, carbon emissions and the sectoral components of output growth using Tunisian data over the period 1971 to 2005.Results of the long–run analysis do not support the neutrality hypothesis between energy consumption and sectoral output growth in Tunisia. Results from short–run dynamics indicate that linkages between energy consumption and economic growth, as well as economic growth and environmental pollution are not uniform across sectors (agriculture, industry and services). These outcomes suggest that prudent energy and environmental policies should distinguish the differences in the relationship between energy consumption and output growth by sector. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 139-158 Issue: 1 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000186 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000186 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:139-158 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Justin Yifu Lin Author-X-Name-First: Justin Yifu Author-X-Name-Last: Lin Title: Shocks, Crises, and Their Determinants Abstract: The current global financial crisis is the most serious both in terms of magnitude and in terms of scope since the Great Depression. No country has been immune to the economic slowdown. In advanced economies, the financial crisis and the global recession that followed the burst of the global financial bubble have brought severe consequences in terms of employment and output. In developing countries, output contraction, growth slowdown, and rising unemployment have come hand in hand with higher borrowing costs, sluggish export growth, and a significant reduction in international capital flows. As a result, poverty has increased. The global financial crisis has left lasting effects on the structure of financial markets, international capital flows, and the cost of capital for developing countries. The efforts of governments and international financial institutions to buffer the impact of the crisis have been quick and aimed in the right direction. However, many risks remain for the road to recovery. This paper provides a brief explanation of how the current global financial crisis originated, and the underlying factors that turned a relatively small collapse in the subprime mortgage market in the United States into a global crisis. It also explores similarities and differences between the current crisis and past experiences. This comparison can provide a better understanding of the main determinants and transmission mechanisms involved, which can help in the design of a better response to the current situation on the one hand, and in the prevention of future crises or minimizations of their impact on the other. Finally, the paper discusses lessons that can be learned for developing countries, focusing on the policies that governments can implement to mitigate the effects of crises and factors that are important for reducing the risks of experiencing a crisis. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 159-176 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000216 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000216 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:159-176 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Neaime Author-X-Name-First: Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Neaime Title: Sustainability of Mena Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Implications of the Recent Global Financial Crisis Abstract: In the wake of the recent US financial crisis and after the accumulation of sizeable public debts, especially in the emerging MENA countries of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey, the financial distress of the public sector has become a major source of concern for policymakers in the region. Using time series econometric tests, and the Present Value Constraint model, this study examines the sustainability of MENA public debt. The empirical results point to strong sustainability of fiscal policies in Tunisia, weak sustainability in Egypt, mixed results for Morocco, and unsustainable debt and fiscal policies in Jordan and Turkey. It is argued that the acceleration of fiscal reforms in the latter group of MENA countries is urgently needed; otherwise, those countries may experience further increases in an already large public debt, and more pressure on exchange and interest rates, with further macroeconomic imbalances. It is also argued that the recent global financial crisis is expected to put further strains on Jordan’s debt sustainability given its limited fiscal space and high debt to GDP ratio. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 177-201 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000228 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000228 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:177-201 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Benbouziane Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Benbouziane Author-Name: Abdelhak Benamar Author-X-Name-First: Abdelhak Author-X-Name-Last: Benamar Title: Could GCC Countries Achieve an Optimal Currency Area? Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to test for the possibility of an optimal currency area (OCA) in the six Gulf countries (namely: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)). To constitute such an OCA, however, they must satisfy certain preconditions; i.e., they must have similar economic structures with exposure to symmetric shocks, they must be open, well-diversified economies, and they must also ensure a high degree of factor mobility. The objective of this paper is to assess the degree to which the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meet the requirements of an OCA. Annual and quarterly data are used in our analysis. Using a multivariate threshold autoregression (MVTAR) model and generalized response functions, the main results are that the GCC countries should be divided, as far as the symmetry of the shocks is concerned, into two sub-groups. The first consists of UAE, Oman, and Bahrain and the second consists of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait. Thus, the main implication is that the GCC countries are still far away from an OCA. The success of such a union is conditional on a lot of measures including the removal of domestic and cross-border distortions that are regarded as a hamper to trade and foreign investments, the coordination of national policies that ensure macroeconomic stability, the deepening of regional integration, the development of the nonoil economy, and realization of a large degree of political integration. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 203-227 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201000023X File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201000023X File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:203-227 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Samy Ben Naceur Author-X-Name-First: Samy Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Naceur Author-Name: Narjess Boubakri Author-X-Name-First: Narjess Author-X-Name-Last: Boubakri Author-Name: Samir Ghazouani Author-X-Name-First: Samir Author-X-Name-Last: Ghazouani Title: Privatization and Financial Market Development in Emerging Countries Abstract: This paper examines the impact of privatization on stock market size and liquidity in a multinational sample of 31 emerging markets. We find that the intensity of privatization and the use of privatization offerings (POs) on the stock market contribute to enhance stock market development, but the documented effects vary across geographical regions, owing to the specificities of the divestiture process. We use GMM procedure in order to estimate dynamic panel specifications and find that privatization appears to be the most beneficial in the Asian sub-sample where most favorable conditions were put in place before privatization actually started. In other regions, however, similar positive outcomes are yet to materialize. We derive several policy implications from our results. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 229-250 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000241 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000241 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:229-250 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adel Boughrara Author-X-Name-First: Adel Author-X-Name-Last: Boughrara Author-Name: Samir Ghazouani Author-X-Name-First: Samir Author-X-Name-Last: Ghazouani Title: Is there a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Selected Mena Countries? Abstract: This paper investigates whether or not there are differential effects of monetary policy across bank characteristics in some selected MENA countries namely Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia, to test for the presence of the bank lending channel (BLC). It uses a panel of micro bank balance sheet data from 1989 to 2007 to estimate the response of bank lending to changes in the monetary policy stance. The assumptions that the effect of a change in the monetary policy stance on a bank’s lending activity depends on its capital, size, and on its liquidity base are tested. It has been found that the BLC is operative in almost all the countries. More specifically, the effects of bank characteristics in shaping the banks reaction to changes in the monetary policy are not uniform through the four countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 251-282 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000253 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000253 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:251-282 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sami Bibi Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Bibi Author-Name: Rim Chatti Author-X-Name-First: Rim Author-X-Name-Last: Chatti Title: Gender Poverty in Tunisia Abstract: The paper investigates the association between gender and poverty in Tunisia based upon an empirical analysis of 1990 and 2000 household surveys. It also tests whether or not there is a widespread feminization of poverty. To achieve these goals, the paper suggests a theoretically sound method to compute expenditure-based incidence of poverty and tests for differences in the headcount ratio between female- and male-headed households for a given period and whether or not this difference is increasing over time. Stochastic dominance tests are also performed to avoid arbitrary choices of poverty lines and indices. The results suggest that although female-headed households are subject to unequal treatment in the labor market, they are not poorer than their male counterparts, as they live with more active persons. However, as we increase the poverty line, the poverty difference between female- and male-headed households rises to the detriment of female-headed households and becomes statistically significant. However, what is more disquieting is that this difference increases over time due to the fall in both the level of and the returns to female labor endowment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 283-307 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000265 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000265 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:283-307 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Book Review Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 309-313 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000277 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000277 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:309-313 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Author Index Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 315-315 Issue: 2 Volume: 2 Year: 2010 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812010000289 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812010000289 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:2:y:2010:i:2:p:315-315 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: In Honor of Christopher Pissarides Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: v-v Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000363 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000363 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:v-v Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Title: The Relevance of Christopher Pissarides’ Contribution to Mena Labor Markets Abstract: High unemployment rates in MENA appear to be structural in nature and result from the significant segmentation of the region’s economies along formal-informal and public-private lines. It thus appears at first that Christopher’s Pissarides’ seminal contribution on the search theoretic underpinnings of unemployment are less relevant than a Harris-Todaro-type dual economy model. Nevertheless, I argue in this essay that Pissarides’ search theoretic framework is becoming increasingly relevant as the role of public sectors in the labor market is gradually attenuated. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-10 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000296 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000296 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:1-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gerardo Della Paolera Author-X-Name-First: Gerardo Della Author-X-Name-Last: Paolera Title: The Unending Search for a New Global Monetary and Financial Architecture Abstract: After the 2007–2009 economic deluge, the policy and theoretical case for a New Global Monetary and Financial Architecture gained momentum. This article analyzes some key features of the global crisis that severely limited the range of action of modern central banking. Earlier episodes of concerted institutional or implicit collective efforts to “anchor” a global system and the search for a stable international key currency in a cooperative atmosphere have, in general, failed. The incentives to reinvent a new Gold Standard or Bretton Woods are always inversely related to the international business cycle. Questions regarding the heterodox political open economy stance of the new emerging economies during the contemporaneous crisis are also discussed. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 11-28 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000302 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000302 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:11-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Houssem Eddine Chebbi Author-X-Name-First: Houssem Author-X-Name-Last: Eddine Chebbi Author-Name: Marcelo Olarreaga Author-X-Name-First: Marcelo Author-X-Name-Last: Olarreaga Author-Name: Habib Zitouna Author-X-Name-First: Habib Author-X-Name-Last: Zitouna Title: Trade Openness and Co2 Emissions in Tunisia Abstract: By reallocating resources among more or less polluting sectors, trade reforms affect pollution levels directly. They also affect pollution indirectly through their impact on economic activity and income levels, which then affect not only emissions, but also the demand for higher environmental standards. The sign of the direct and indirect effects is ambiguous. In other words, whether trade openness leads to more or less pollution is an empirical question. Using cointegration techniques, we disentangle the long- and short-run relationship between trade openness, income per capita and CO2 emissions in Tunisia, as well as the extent of Granger causality among these variables. Results suggest that the direct effect of trade openness on CO2 emissions is positive both in the short and the long run, but the indirect effect is negative at least in the long run. The overall effect is positive both in the short and long run, highlighting the importance for trade reforms to be accompanied by strong environmental policies. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 29-53 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000314 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000314 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:29-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khalid H. A. Siddig Author-X-Name-First: Khalid H. A. Author-X-Name-Last: Siddig Title: From Bilateral Trade to Multilateral Pressure: A Scenario of European Union Relations with Sudan Abstract: This paper investigates the economic consequences of a scenario in which the European Union (EU) imposes economic sanctions on Sudan. The idea of the paper is motivated by the deteriorating relations between Sudan and the EU arising from the devastating conflicts in Darfur region and related implications involving the International Criminal Court (ICC). Another factor supporting the idea is the U.S. encouragement of multilateral pressure on the country to change the behavior of the government. The global CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and its Africa Database is employed in this paper. The simulation bans importation into the EU from Sudan as well as exportation to Sudan from the EU. The results suggest that both income and expenditure of the Sudanese GDP will decline due to sanctions. The trade balance will witness a surplus due to the big decline in the country’s imports, as all imports will fall. However, the major impact is coming from the decreasing EU-sourced imports like light manufacturing, petroleum-coal products, and heavy manufacturing, which represent big shares in the total Sudanese import value. While Sudan is the clear loser, the results show that the East Asian countries, led by China, will gain in this situation. Most of Sudanese trade with the EU seems to be shifting to these countries. However, the ‘Rest of Africa’ region does not have any welfare losses, while it has gains in some sectors. Domestic output in MENA, Egypt, Kenya, and Ethiopia in some sectors will fall due to the EU sanctions on Sudan, reflecting the regional dimension that sanctions can have. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 55-73 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000326 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000326 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:55-73 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Adel Ben Youssef Author-X-Name-First: Adel Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Youssef Author-Name: Walid Hadhri Author-X-Name-First: Walid Author-X-Name-Last: Hadhri Author-Name: Hatem M’Henni Author-X-Name-First: Hatem Author-X-Name-Last: M’Henni Title: Intra-Firm Diffusion of Innovation: Evidence from Tunisian SMEs Regarding Information and Communication Technologies Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold: first, we want to explore the intra-firm diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) within Tunisian firms and to characterize its general trends regarding adoption and usage. Second, we want to emphasize the rank and epidemic effects highlighted by the disequilibrium models of intra-firm diffusion of innovation following the traditional view of Mansfield (1963a) and Antonelli (1985). Based on a face-to-face questionnaire of a random sample of 175 firms, our article shows that:(i) Three technological waves of ICT adoption are well characterized in the Tunisian manufacturing sector. This dynamic of adoption is linked to the age of the technologies. Time is the main explanatory variable for intra-firm diffusion of these technologies.(ii) A positive correlation between the size of the firm, seniority and the depth of adoption is found. This econometric estimation shows that the rank effect is well characterized within the Tunisian firms.(iii) A positive correlation between technological absorptive capacity building and intensity of ICT usage is found. This correlation confirms the epidemic effect.Our results show that disequilibrium model explanations of intra-firm diffusion of innovation are valid within the Tunisian manufacturing sector and seem more appropriate than the equilibrium theory for developing countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 75-97 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000338 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000338 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:75-97 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sami Bibi Author-X-Name-First: Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Bibi Author-Name: Abdelrahmen El Lahga Author-X-Name-First: Abdelrahmen El Author-X-Name-Last: Lahga Title: Decomposing Monetary Inequality in the Arab Region Abstract: The main objective of this paper is to perform a decomposition analysis of the inequality level by socioeconomic groups and geopolitical regions of each country to better our understanding of their contribution to overall inequality. This will fill an important gap in knowledge of inequality patterns in the Arab region, by drawing a rough picture of monetary inequality. Our results show that differences in mean income across groups are much larger in Tunisia, Morocco and especially Yemen and account for a much larger proportion of overall inequality. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 99-117 Issue: 1 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201100034x File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201100034x File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:99-117 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: Editorial Team Update Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: v-v Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000430 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000430 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:v-v Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Núria Rodríguez-Planas Author-X-Name-First: Núria Author-X-Name-Last: Rodríguez-Planas Author-Name: Raquel Vegas Author-X-Name-First: Raquel Author-X-Name-Last: Vegas Title: Moroccans’ Assimilation in Spain: Family-Based Versus Labor-Based Migration Abstract: An important immigration policy question is to identify the best criteria to select among potential migrants. At least two methodological problems arise: The host country’s immigration policy regime’s endogeneity and immigrants’ unobserved heterogeneity. To address the first problem, we focus on a country with an unprecedented immigration boom that lets immigrants freely into the country, for example Spain. To address the second problem, we focus on a large and homogenous group of immigrants: Moroccans. Using the 2007 Encuesta Nacional de Immigración (ENI), we find that family-based immigrants are less likely to work than their labor-based counterparts both upon their arrival and ten years later. This conclusion was made by focusing on a very homogenous group of migrants (Moroccans) who tend to be low-skilled, and after controlling for the migrants’ self-selection with employment history prior to and at arrival. Our Heckman-corrected estimates highlight that there are no monthly earnings differences by reason of arrival, and that failure to correct for labor force participation strongly biases these results. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 119-139 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000387 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000387 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:119-139 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Author-Name: Hanan Morsy Author-X-Name-First: Hanan Author-X-Name-Last: Morsy Title: Determinants of Inflation in GCC Abstract: Inflationary pressures that had heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003 have moderated in recent times. This paper studies the determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through higher growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation in the face of higher government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in public spending on capital is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation. The results highlight the need to mitigate the pro-cyclical stance of fiscal policy to avoid exacerbating cyclical swings. Moreover, prioritizing fiscal spending to address structural bottlenecks should take priority to avoid inflationary pressures and ease capacity constraints towards reducing overdependence on oil activity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 141-158 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000351 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000351 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:141-158 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Izak Atiyas Author-X-Name-First: Izak Author-X-Name-Last: Atiyas Title: Firm-Level Data in the Mena Region: Research Questions, Data Requirements and Possibilities Abstract: This paper presents an overview of research that uses firm-level data. The paper organizes the various areas of inquiry where firm-level data are used under two broad headings. The first is the analysis of productivity, its evolution and determinants, including the relation between productivity, trade, and trade policy. The second general area relates to enterprise financial behavior, patterns of external finance across firms, and the existence and severity of financial constraints faced by different types of firms, followed by their impact on investment behavior. The paper also points out that there is an emerging literature that examines the relation between financial constraints and productivity. The paper provides some thoughts on research questions that would be fruitful for researchers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to address, the sort of data that can be used to address them and to document availability of firm-level data in the MENA Region. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 159-190 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000399 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000399 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:159-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Abdelasset Chemingui Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelasset Chemingui Title: Welfare Effects from Reforming Agricultural Policies in Rich Countries in a Spatially Small Heterogeneous Agricultural Economy Abstract: Import barriers and subsidies to agriculture sectors in rich countries have favored their farmers at the cost of depressing the economies of developing countries, reducing national welfare, hampering agricultural trade and economic growth, and worsening inequality and poverty. The impact of agricultural policies in rich countries has been extensively analyzed. Less studied are their spatial implications in a small open economy. This paper analyzes the effects of reforming agricultural policies of rich countries on the welfare and income distribution in Tunisia. The analysis is based on a spatial dynamic computable general equilibrium (SD-CGE) model that captures the economies of four Tunisian sub-regions. Simulations suggest a relatively small impact at the macroeconomic level, but significant impacts are felt on the regional economies and income distributions. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 191-213 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000405 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000405 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:191-213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fadi A. Fawaz Author-X-Name-First: Fadi A. Author-X-Name-Last: Fawaz Title: Spatial Dependence of Income Inequality among Trading Partners Abstract: Questions surrounding income inequality have received great attention in the recent economic literature. Traditionally the literature does not attempt to investigate how income inequality in a country could be affected by the income inequality of countries economically related to it. Using Trade Spatial Lags, this paper shows that a country’s income inequality is affected by the inequality of its top trading partners. This investigation shows a strong positive relationship of the Gini coefficient among major trading partners. To conduct the study, we use panel data for a sample of 180 countries from 1960 to 2008. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 215-232 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000375 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000375 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:215-232 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khosrow Piraee Author-X-Name-First: Khosrow Author-X-Name-Last: Piraee Author-Name: Mohammad Reza Shahsavar Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Reza Shahsavar Title: Assessing Subsidies and Indirect Taxes in Iran: A Social Welfare Perspective Abstract: Government fiscal policy can be said to be pro-poor if it benefits the poor more than the nonpoor. This research, by using the concept of social welfare, identifies which goods and services should be subsidized or taxed to maximize social welfare. For this purpose, the concept of the elasticity of the Atkinson social welfare with respect to prices is used to derive a price reform index to assess indirect taxes and subsidies. The results of this research, conducted in Iran’s urban and rural areas during 2003–2007, indicate that increasing the price of food items hurts the poor more than the rich. Subsidizing food items (excluding beverages and tobacco) has been pro-poor while an increase in the price of items like healthcare, transportation, communication and education hurt the rich more than the poor wherein the rich benefit more from subsidies to these items than the poor. In light of these results, a review of subsidies and taxes on the above-mentioned items is warranted to reduce inequality and improve welfare. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 233-246 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000417 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000417 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:233-246 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jean-Philippe Platteau Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Philippe Author-X-Name-Last: Platteau Title: Book Review Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 247-251 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000429 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000429 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:247-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Author Index Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 253-253 Issue: 2 Volume: 3 Year: 2011 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812011000442 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812011000442 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:3:y:2011:i:2:p:253-253 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: Editorial Team Update Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1210001-1-1210001-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012100013 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012100013 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1210001-1-1210001-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesca Marchetta Author-X-Name-First: Francesca Author-X-Name-Last: Marchetta Title: The Impact of Migration on the Labor Markets in the Arab Mediterranean Countries Abstract: We provide an extensive theoretical overview of the rich array of effects that migration out of Arab Mediterranean Countries can produce on their labor markets and a review of the existing empirical evidence. Migration is found to reduce unemployment, but it exerts little to no effect on participation rates, because of the cultural resistance to a more active female engagement, and because of the positive income effect brought about by remittances. Furthermore, the brain drain is found to be a serious concern for some Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs), while other countries stand to benefit from skilled migration. While relevant knowledge gaps remain, the value-added of this paper is represented by the layout of a broad analytical framework to systematize the findings for future research. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1230001-1-1230001-47 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012300017 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012300017 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1230001-1-1230001-47 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Author-Name: Mohamed Trabelsi Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Trabelsi Title: Is the Announced Monetary Union in GCC Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach Abstract: This paper tests the desirability and feasibility of the establishment of a monetary union in GCC countries using a multivariate structural VAR during the period 1980—2006. The paper builds on the earlier work, capitalizing on a methodology that captures supply and demand disturbances impinging on individual economies. Co-movements of shocks across countries are considered a crucial condition towards integration in a common currency area. Shocks are based on the estimation of a structural VAR model that comprises world real output, domestic output, real exchange rates, and the price level. Based on correlations using supply, demand, and nominal shocks, the paper establishes the following results: (i) countries of the region are still far from the necessary conditions to ensure the success of joining a currency union. Nevertheless, for a subset of countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar), conditions suggest higher potential to take the lead in endorsing and fostering a common currency zone, (ii) a higher degree of labor mobility, openness, and intra-regional mobility are still desired to accelerate regional integration and ensure a steady path towards the establishment of a currency union. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250001-1-1250001-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500010 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500010 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1250001-1-1250001-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Constantino Hevia Author-X-Name-First: Constantino Author-X-Name-Last: Hevia Author-Name: Norman Loayza Author-X-Name-First: Norman Author-X-Name-Last: Loayza Title: Saving and Growth in Egypt Abstract: This study illustrates the mechanisms linking national saving and economic growth, with the purpose of understanding the possibilities and limits of a saving-based growth agenda in the context of the Egyptian economy. This is done through a simple theoretical model, calibrated to fit the Egyptian economy, and simulated to explore different potential scenarios. The main conclusion is that if the Egyptian economy does not experience progress in productivity — stemming from technological innovation, improved public management, and private-sector reforms — , then a high rate of economic growth is not feasible at current rates of national saving and would require a saving effort that is highly unrealistic. For instance, financing a constant 4% growth rate of GDP per capita with no TFP improvement would require a national saving rate of around 50% in the first decade and 80% in 25 years! However, if productivity rises, sustaining and improving high rates of economic growth becomes viable. Following the previous example, a 2% growth rate of TFP would allow a 4% growth rate of GDP per capita with national saving rate in the realistic range of 20—25% of GDP. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250001-1-1250001-23 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500022 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500022 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1250001-1-1250001-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Riadh Ben Jelili Author-X-Name-First: Riadh Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Jelili Title: Revisiting the Finance-Growth Nexus: Further Evidence from Tunisia Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between financial development and economic growth in terms of intersectoral spillovers. The econometric investigations are performed using a dynamic theoretical framework consistent with Feder (1983). For this purpose, yearly national accounts data for Tunisia during the period 1972—2008 are exploited. One of the principal motivations of this investigation goes back to the fact that the issue of the role of financial factor in economic development in Tunisia is not adequately researched. This paper should be viewed as an attempt to fill this gap. The empirical estimations show significant externalities from the financial services industry to the real economy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250001-1-1250001-15 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500034 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500034 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1250001-1-1250001-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rina Bhattacharya Author-X-Name-First: Rina Author-X-Name-Last: Bhattacharya Author-Name: Hirut Wolde Author-X-Name-First: Hirut Author-X-Name-Last: Wolde Title: Business Environment Constraints on Growth in the Mena Region Abstract: In this paper we contribute to the empirical literature on growth in the MENA region by attempting to quantify the impact of the various constraints faced by local businesses highlighted by the World Bank’s Business Enterprise surveys. To the best of our knowledge this dataset has not been used in any empirical analysis looking at the main constraints on growth in the MENA region. Our empirical results suggest that the key direct constraints to growth in the MENA region are dificulties in access to finance, labor skill mismatches and shortages, and electricity constraints. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250004-1-1250004-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500046 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500046 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1250004-1-1250004-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hoda Selim Author-X-Name-First: Hoda Author-X-Name-Last: Selim Title: Has Egypt’s Exchange Rate Policy Changed after the Float? Abstract: The Central Bank of Egypt announced the flotation of the Egyptian Pound in January 2003. Yet, the somewhat stable exchange rate raises questions about its actual role in monetary policy. This paper assesses whether exchange policy significantly changed after the float. It first applies cointegration methodology using monthly data from 1981 to 2008 to show that there is a long-run relationship between the LE/US$ exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. A vector error-correction model shows that the speed of exchange rate adjustment to long-run equilibrium is slow and that there has not been a significant change in exchange rate determination after the float. Finally, Egypt’s de facto exchange rate regime could be classified as “fixed” for several years after the de jure float was announced. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250005-1-1250005-27 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500058 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500058 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1250005-1-1250005-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Book Review Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1280001-1-1280001-7 Issue: 1 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012800016 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012800016 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:1280001-1-1280001-7 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lyn Squire Author-X-Name-First: Lyn Author-X-Name-Last: Squire Title: Editorial Team Update Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1210002-1-1210002-1 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012100025 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012100025 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1210002-1-1210002-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Author-Name: Nadia Belhaj Hassine Author-X-Name-First: Nadia Belhaj Author-X-Name-Last: Hassine Author-Name: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Author-X-Name-First: Djavad Author-X-Name-Last: Salehi-Isfahani Title: Inequality of Opportunity in Child Health in the Arab World and Turkey Abstract: It is by now well established in the public health literature that health and nutrition in the first years of life are critical to health and wellbeing later in life. In this paper, we examine the patterns of inequality of opportunity in health and nutrition outcomes, such as height-for-age and weight-for-height, for children under 5 years of age in selected Arab Countries and Turkey, using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data. Our objective is to decompose inequality into a portion that is due to inequality of opportunity and a portion that is due to other factors, such as random variations in health and genetics. Inequality of opportunity is defined as the inequality that is due to differences in circumstances, such as parental characteristics, household wealth, place of birth and gender. We measure inequality using decomposable general entropy measures, such as the Theil-T index, and use parametric decomposition methods to determine the share of inequality of opportunity in total inequality.Results show that different levels and trends are evident across countries in both the overall inequality of child health outcomes and in the share of inequality of opportunity in total inequality. Inequality of opportunity is shown to contribute substantially to the inequality of child health outcomes, but its share in total inequality varies significantly both across countries and within countries over time. To further highlight the relative contribution of circumstances to the inequality of child health outcomes in different countries, we simulate height and weight outcomes for a most and least advantaged child in each context. Since these simulations set observed circumstances at their best and worst levels, the larger the difference in predicted outcomes between the most and least advantaged child, the larger is the inequality of opportunity facing children in that country. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250006-1-1250006-37 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201250006X File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201250006X File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250006-1-1250006-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso Author-X-Name-First: Inmaculada Author-X-Name-Last: Martinez-Zarzoso Author-Name: Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D Author-X-Name-First: Felicitas Author-X-Name-Last: Nowak-Lehmann D Author-Name: Florian Johannsen Author-X-Name-First: Florian Author-X-Name-Last: Johannsen Title: Foreign Aid, Exports and Development in Euromed Abstract: This paper investigates the link between foreign aid and exports between the two shores of the Mediterranean. The main hypothesis is that the Euro-Mediterranean Process should promote not only trade but also stronger links between the European Union (EU) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Hence, we expect development aid to have a positive impact on exports, which could also intensify the aid-trade relationship. In particular, we expect to find higher trade volumes in both directions after the process started in 1995 and intensified in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when several bilateral free trade agreements were signed. A gravity model augmented with bilateral and multilateral aid and trade regime variables is estimated for exports and imports from recipient countries to donor countries for the period 1988 to 2007 using advanced panel data techniques. Our method addresses the endogeneity bias of the trade regime/economic integration agreement (EIA) variable, assuming that decisions to form or enlarge EIAs are slow-moving relative to trade flows. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250007-1-1250007-24 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500071 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500071 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250007-1-1250007-24 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hadi Salehi Esfahani Author-X-Name-First: Hadi Salehi Author-X-Name-Last: Esfahani Author-Name: Parastoo Shajari Author-X-Name-First: Parastoo Author-X-Name-Last: Shajari Title: Gender, Education, Family Structure, And The Allocation Of Labor In Iran Abstract: The gender gap in labor force participation (LFP) in Iran is much larger than most other countries, but it has been declining. Also, the composition of women’s employment has been shifting towards professional and entrepreneurial positions, especially in the private sector. Analyzing the forces behind these patterns is important from a policy perspective and for predicting the future trends in the Iranian labor market. Understanding the case of Iran has also implications for other economies, especially those in the Middle East and North Africa, which have similar labor market conditions. Using a large sample derived from Iran’s 2006 census and employing IV Probit and multinomial Logit models, we examine the role of education and other individual and family characteristics in LFP and employment of Iranian men and women aged 25–54. We find that about 60% of the rise in female LFP rate between 1986 and 2006 can be attributed to the decline in fertility. The expansion of education, on the other hand, accounts for about 10% of the rise. The limited role of education is partly due to the limited range ofjobs that are available for educated women, hence intensifying competition among them and reducing the returns to their education. Alleviating this jobs constraint may allow the role of education to rise two to three times. In addition, part of the fertility effect can be attributed to female education, which has played an important role in lowering the number of children ever born. Since fertility is unlikely to decline further, female education could become the main driving force in the continued rise of women’s LFP. We also find that women who join the labor market as a result of tertiary education, especially at the graduate level, have a much higher chance of joining the private sector, especially as employers and self-employed, than the average person in their cohort. Contrary to the common perception, the association between education and public employment is stronger for men than for women. These findings imply that tertiary education, especially at the graduate level, may help address the important policy challenges that Iran and other MENA countries in alleviating unemployment, diversifying the economy, and empowering women. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250008-1-1250008-40 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500083 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500083 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250008-1-1250008-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Touhami Abdelkhalek Author-X-Name-First: Touhami Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelkhalek Author-Name: Fouzia Ejjanoui Author-X-Name-First: Fouzia Author-X-Name-Last: Ejjanoui Title: A Multidimensional Approach to Poverty Abstract: The study of poverty in Morocco has always been based on the so-called monetary approach advocated by the World Bank. Indeed, the Direction de la Statistique (DS) uses consumer spending alone to characterize this phenomenon. However, due to its one-dimensional character, this approach has proven to be limited. In recent years, a universal consensus has been reached: Poverty is to be treated as a multiple deprivation. This approach stipulates the importance of taking both monetary and nonmonetary dimensions into account when measuring and analyzing poverty.This research utilizes raw data from the 2004 General Population and Housing Census (Recensement général de la population et de l’habitat, or RGPH) to approach and measure multidimensional poverty in an urban setting in one of Morocco’s largest cities, Marrakech. This article’s precise goal is to construct a composite poverty indicator (CPI) for each household. This indicator allows us to map multidimensional (nonmonetary) poverty across the six urban districts of the city of Marrakech.Our methodology relies on the complementary use of several advanced statistical methods: Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), two classification methods (ascending hierarchical classification (AHC) and a partition method) and stochastic dominance. Our results highlight the stark disparities between the different districts of the city in 2004 with regard to non-monetary poverty. Our detailed case study reveals a discrepancy of 18.4 percentage points between Guéliz, the district with the smallest poor population, and Annakhil, the district with the greatest number of poor inhabitants. These results also differ significantly, in terms of incidence, from those obtained by the Haut Commissariat au Plan (HCP) using a monetary approach and illustrated by their poverty map for the same year, 2004. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250009-1-1250009-27 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500095 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500095 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250009-1-1250009-27 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdoul’ Ganiou Mtjiyawa Author-X-Name-First: Abdoul’ Ganiou Author-X-Name-Last: Mtjiyawa Author-Name: Alexander Kremer Author-X-Name-First: Alexander Author-X-Name-Last: Kremer Author-Name: Loic Whitmore Author-X-Name-First: Loic Author-X-Name-Last: Whitmore Title: Does Mena’s Governance Lead to Spatial Agglomeration? Abstract: This paper studies the link between spatial imbalance and political governance with an emphasis on the MENA region. The agglomeration index is our indicator of spatial imbalance. We distinguish two aspects of political governance: political rights and political stability. Statistically, we find that the agglomeration rate is higher in MENA, whereas the indexes of political rights and political stability are lower in MENA compared to the rest of the world and other lower middle income countries. Using cross-sectional data for 182 countries around the world, we find that the political rights index is negatively and significantly related to the agglomeration index. Our results suggest that an improvement in MENA countries’ level of political rights to the average of the rest of the world would be associated with an agglomeration rate four percentage points lower than its average level in the region. Moreover, the data reveal an inverted-U relationship between the agglomeration rate and GDP per capita, and a negative effect of trade openness on agglomeration rate. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250010-1-1250010-23 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500101 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500101 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250010-1-1250010-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Öner Günçavdi Author-X-Name-First: Öner Author-X-Name-Last: Günçavdi Author-Name: Burg Ulengin Author-X-Name-First: Burg Author-X-Name-Last: Ulengin Title: Aggregate Imports and Expenditure Components in Turkey Abstract: Despite its recent growth performance, the Turkish economy has been experiencing current account imbalances, and has so far been able to continue these imbalances without jeopardizing economic growth. However, recent uncertainties in the world economy have urged policy makers to control these imbalances and to take actions accordingly in the short-run. The literature postulates that expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies are two conventional measures to implement in an economy suffering from current account deficits. In this regard, the aim of the paper is to examine the role of expenditure components in import demand, which is among one of the most crucial elements of current account items. The empirical results indicate that demand for imports has a very sluggish adjustment process in response to any policy shocks, and consumption and export expenditure together with the relative prices are the important factors that seem to influence this adjustment process. The high dependence of domestic production on foreign intermediate goods and the reluctance of the Turkish entrepreneurs for import substitution (mainly due to an unfavorable business climate) could be regarded as the reason for this sluggish adjustment process of import demand. This research accordingly shows that these conventional measures (such as those that are included by expenditure reduction and expenditure switching policies) might be necessary but not sufficient, and it would require more structural and long-run policy actions to deal with recent current account difficulties in the Turkish case. The empirical findings also indicate that the import requirement of exports is very high. This, together with high import dependency of domestic production, calls for structural and long-run policy actions that would help to increase the value added to Turkish exports. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250011-1-1250011-20 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500113 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500113 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250011-1-1250011-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shaker Sarsour Author-X-Name-First: Shaker Author-X-Name-Last: Sarsour Title: Analyzing the Transmission Mechanisms of Monetary Policy in the Absence of a National Currency Abstract: This paper investigates and identifies the channels through which external or internal monetary policy shocks can affect the real economy and inflation in Palestine. Two approaches are used: The vector error correction model and ordinary least square simple regression. In estimating the performance of these models, actual quarterly data is used between Q1 2002 and Q2 2009; for the period of Q1 1996 to Q2 2009, a mix of actual and predicted data is used. Empirical results in general indicate that monetary policy shocks have limited influence on economic activities and inflation in Palestine. However, results show that pass-through from domestic lending interest rates of the US dollar (or Jordanian dinar) is higher than for the new Israeli shekel. They reveal a presence of significant but relatively low pass-through for policy rates onto domestic lending interest rates, and therefore, on real economic activities. Israeli monetary policy has a significant impact on Palestinian real economic activities, mainly net exports and on the inflation rate. Furthermore, the exchange rate channel influences GDP by affecting wealth and net exports. Finally, political conditions have had a significant and important impact on the behavior of the Palestinian people by affecting consumption levels. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1250012-1-1250012-30 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500125 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012500125 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1250012-1-1250012-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Author Index Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1299001-1-1299001-1 Issue: 2 Volume: 4 Year: 2012 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012990015 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812012990015 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:1299001-1-1299001-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ishac Diwan Author-X-Name-First: Ishac Author-X-Name-Last: Diwan Title: Introduction: Political and Economic Transformations in the Arab World Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1310001-1-1310001-5 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013100019 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013100019 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1310001-1-1310001-5 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roger Owen Author-X-Name-First: Roger Author-X-Name-Last: Owen Title: The Political Economy of Arab Presidents for Life — And After Abstract: The system of personalized Arab presidential power based on a strong security state had its origins in the assertion of national sovereignty in the dangerous post-independence world of the 1950s and 1960s. and then becoming more monarchical in character over time, including the attempt to perpetuate itself by passing power on to the ruler’s son. Key to this development was the appearance around each ruler of a small group of crony-capitalists who used their privileged access to secure state monopolies which they then schemed to protect after the ruler’s death. Both developments, that of family dictatorships, as well as their associated corruption and cronyism, can then be used to account in large measure with the uprisings associated with the Arab ‘Spring’. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350001-1-1350001-13 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500016 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500016 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350001-1-1350001-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ahmed Galal Author-X-Name-First: Ahmed Author-X-Name-Last: Galal Author-Name: Hoda Selim Author-X-Name-First: Hoda Author-X-Name-Last: Selim Title: The Elusive Quest for Economic Development in the Arab Countries Abstract: This paper reviews the development experience of the Arab countries since World War II, arguing that the lack of inclusive economic and political institutions is the primary cause for the current state of underdevelopment in the region. While macroeconomic mismanagement and oil abundance are important determinants of performance, these factors are shaped primarily by the prevailing political institutions which predated the discovery of oil. In the oil-poor Arab countries, limited progress is attributed to an authoritarian bargain in which the rulers exchanged economic benefits to the poor and the middle class for political acquiesce. Finally, the paper concludes by speculating whether the recent Arab revolts will spread to the rest of the region and whether these revolts will be remembered in the future as a critical juncture towards more inclusive institutions and shared progress. It does not offer a conclusive answer, but suggests that early indications are positive. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350002-1-1350002-33 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500028 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500028 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350002-1-1350002-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fadhel Kaboub Author-X-Name-First: Fadhel Author-X-Name-Last: Kaboub Title: The Making of the Tunisian Revolution Abstract: The rapid fall of the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia on January 14, 2011 has not only sparked a wave of uprisings across the Arab region, but has also raised many questions about the rotes of socio-economic inequality, youth unemployment, corruption, and government oppression in the making of the Tunisian uprisings. This paper argues that what seemed to be an island of stability in the region was in fact a ticking time bomb that was set off by Mohamed Bouazizi in December 2010. It further argues that the overthrow of the Ben Ali regime could not have taken place had it not been a leaderless revolt. As a result, the paper provides a critical analysis of the making of the Tunisian revolution by investigating the key factors that maintained stability, and the mechanisms that set the stage for the uprisings. In doing so, the analysis reveals the radical social transformation that took place since the early 1990s leading to the breakdown of the social contract, and the gradual drift of the middle class away from its implicit support of the Ben Ali regime. The new political landscape opens up a real opportunity for democratic transformation, vibrant civic engagement, and sustainable economic revival. Therefore, our analysis would be incomplete without a careful look at the new dynamic between the forces of political Islam, secularism, and the middle class. Finally, the paper closes with a summary and some concluding remarks. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350003-1-1350003-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201350003X File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201350003X File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350003-1-1350003-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ishac Diwan Author-X-Name-First: Ishac Author-X-Name-Last: Diwan Title: Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class Abstract: The paper presents the outlines of a coherent, structural, long term account of the socio-economic and political evolution of the Arab republics that can explain both the persistence of autocracy until 2011, and the its eventual collapse, in a way that is empirically verifiable. I argue that the changing interests of the middle class would have to be a central aspect of a coherent story, on accounts of both distributional and modernization considerations, and that the ongoing transformation can be best understood in terms of their defection from the autocratic order to a new democratic order, which is still in formation. I then review what the evidence says in two central parts of the emerging narrative, for the case of Egypt: first, by looking directly at changes in opinion and asking whether these are consistent with the predictions of the theory. And second, by examining the corporate sector before and during the uprisings of 2011 in order to understand better the performance of “crony capitalism”, and to evaluate whether it may have affected the incentives of the middle class to defect. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350004-1-1350004-30 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500041 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500041 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350004-1-1350004-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Freund Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Freund Author-Name: Melise Jaud Author-X-Name-First: Melise Author-X-Name-Last: Jaud Title: On the Determinants of Democratic Transitions Abstract: 90 countries have changed regimes in the last half century. Of these, 46% experienced a successful transition to democracy, 39% failed, and 15% moved gradually to democracy. In this paper, we explore the initial conditions associated with transition and with its success. We find that gender equality, natural resources, conflict, a military government, and urbanization significantly affect the likelihood of regime change and the durability of democracy. Contagion effects from experiences in neighboring countries are also important determinants of success. The results offer insights into what we can expect from the ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350005-1-1350005-30 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500053 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500053 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350005-1-1350005-30 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jillian Schwedler Author-X-Name-First: Jillian Author-X-Name-Last: Schwedler Title: Islamists in Power? Inclusion, Moderation, and the Arab Uprisings Abstract: Political inclusion is a major concern for democratizing states. Among the many groups excluded and repressed by the former regime, which should now be included? Which should be excluded? And who decides? With the extraordinary events of the Arab uprisings that began in 2011, a wider range of political actors than ever before have become directly engaged in debates and processes of political transition. The new political institutions, however, remain unstable and the distribution of power between them unclear. This paper explores the inclusion-moderation hypothesis with special attention to Islamist groups. It examines the literature on Islamist moderation prior to the Arab uprisings and asks whether the central tenets of those arguments hold in the dynamic environments of the post-revolutionary contexts, particularly in Tunisia and Egypt, where Islamists have done well in free and fair elections. I argue that in unstable and changing institutional contexts, the logic of the inclusion-moderation hypothesis is less likely to be present, particularly when more extreme opposition groups challenge Islamists to prove their core commitment to a conservative religious political vision. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350006-1-1350006-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500065 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500065 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350006-1-1350006-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hasan Ersel Author-X-Name-First: Hasan Author-X-Name-Last: Ersel Title: Politico-Economic Developments in Turkey and the Transformation of Political Islam (1950–2010) Abstract: Between 1946 and 2010, Turkey evolved from a backward, closed agrarian economy into an open, urbanized economy with a significant industrial base capable of exporting a diverse set of products to many countries. The Turkish political system was transformed into a multi-party regime that allowed participation of the masses to political process. These developments led to a change in the political demands of the different segments of the society (including the Islamic political community) and revisions in the fundamental political concepts (such as secularism). Although Turkey has not been able to reach its long term goal of becoming a developed liberal democracy, the steps taken during this period enabled the smooth transfer of power to the Islamic-based AKP in 2003 elections. Turkey’s experience reveals that establishing a sound institutional base for multi-party democracy and market economy is a long and difficult process. It requires the resolution of a series conflicts among different interest groups and securing wide public support in an uncertain environment. Once these issues are taken into account, it is possible to detect a historical pattern in Turkey’s evolution, which can explain the 2003 election victory of the AKP and its success in the years that followed. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350007-1-1350007-25 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500077 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500077 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350007-1-1350007-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Akhmad Rizal Shidiq Author-X-Name-First: Akhmad Author-X-Name-Last: Rizal Shidiq Author-Name: Philips Jusario Vermonte Author-X-Name-First: Philips Author-X-Name-Last: Jusario Vermonte Title: What Happened in the Early Years of Democracy: Indonesia’s Experience Abstract: We discuss Indonesia’s experience in the aftermath of deep economic and political crisis in 1998 that marked an abrupt transition from authoritarian to democratic regime and provided a critical junction for political reform. Among various and oftentimes interlinked issues of reform, we focus on the impact of introduction and adoption of modern democratic elections to political Islam, especially at national level. To illustrate political development at sub-national level following decentralization, we look at the proliferation of district splits and briefly discuss how local political reform made political institutions less insular to popular voters. In doing so, we illustrate political configuration that preceded the 1998 crisis as a backdrop on the importance of political Islam and decentralization in the post-crisis era. We argue that one of the important features of the consolidation of democracy in Indonesia is that both old and political power holders have been going through continuation and moderation processes to adjust with new institutional settings brought by the crisis. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350008-1-1350008-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500089 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500089 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:1:p:1350008-1-1350008-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael L. Ross Author-X-Name-First: Michael L. Author-X-Name-Last: Ross Title: The Political Economy Of Petroleum Wealth Abstract: Mineral wealth tends to make countries less democratic and more likely to experience a civil war. Many countries also find it hard to use their natural resource revenues to make high-quality, growth-enhancing investments. I argue that these problems are caused, in part, by the unusual qualities of resource revenues their great size, their non-tax source, their lack of stability, and their secrecy. While there is no universal formula for changing these four qualities, I present a menu of policies that could make natural resource revenues smaller, smoother and more transparent, and hence easier for governments to invest productively. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350009-1-1350009-19 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500090 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500090 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350009-1-1350009-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brahim Elmorchid Author-X-Name-First: Brahim Author-X-Name-Last: Elmorchid Author-Name: Noha Samy Author-X-Name-First: Noha Author-X-Name-Last: Samy Author-Name: Khalid Sekkat Author-X-Name-First: Khalid Author-X-Name-Last: Sekkat Author-Name: Jay Squalli Author-X-Name-First: Jay Author-X-Name-Last: Squalli Title: Arab Passengers’ Airlines Framework and Performance Abstract: Since the early 1980s, the international market of airline passengers is witnessing major turbulences. While in the USA, the EU or the ASEAN different strategies have been adopted to face the new situation, Arab countries show no clear strategy. Given the importance of this market for labor and nonlabor mobility in the Region, this paper investigates the impact of further liberalization on passengers and on welfare. To this end, an Indicator of Openness was computed and incorporated into an econometric model. The results show that increased competition decreases fares as well as carriers’ revenue but increases consumer surplus. The computed net effect on society welfare is positive. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350010-1-1350010-21 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500107 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500107 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350010-1-1350010-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Öner Günçavdi Author-X-Name-First: Öner Author-X-Name-Last: Günçavdi Author-Name: Suat Küçükçifçi Author-X-Name-First: Suat Author-X-Name-Last: Küçükçifçi Author-Name: Ayşe Aylin Bayar Author-X-Name-First: Ayşe Aylin Author-X-Name-Last: Bayar Title: Economic Development and Structural Change Abstract: During the last two decades, Turkey implemented a number of structural adjustment programmes, and changed the economic structural priorities from agriculture to manufacturing sectors. However, agricultural sector has still remained as the most important sector in terms of employing almost 29.5% of total employment in the economy. Despite this situation share of agricultural production in total value added has drastically declined. This research aims to enlighten changing role of agricultural sector in Turkish economy. In doing so, we employ input—output model, in which sectoral inter-linkages can be defined. Our research uses input—output tables from 1968 to 2002 and analyzes the importance of agricultural sector basing upon the forward and backward linkages calculated under different hypothetical cases. Therefore, we can examine the changes in total production in the economy. Through such a sensitivity analyses, we are able to investigate the extent of which other sectors rely on the production of the agricultural sector. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350011-1-1350011-29 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500119 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500119 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350011-1-1350011-29 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kamiar Mohaddes Author-X-Name-First: Kamiar Author-X-Name-Last: Mohaddes Author-Name: Oral H. Wtlliams Author-X-Name-First: Oral H. Author-X-Name-Last: Wtlliams Title: Inflation Differentials in the GCC Abstract: This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that in order for the proposed monetary union to be successful, closer coordination of fiscal policies will be critical. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350012-1-1350012-23 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500120 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500120 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350012-1-1350012-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hend Al Sheikh Author-X-Name-First: Hend Al Author-X-Name-Last: Sheikh Author-Name: S. Nuri Erbas Author-X-Name-First: S. Nuri Author-X-Name-Last: Erbas Title: Labor Income and Oil Wealth Abstract: Actuarial sustainability of income from exhaustible resources requires that present and future generations get equal shares of income. Significant omission is labor market conditions. This paper proposes a broader framework for sustainability assessment that incorporates labor market conditions. Theoretical analysis indicates that current generations’ income level is not sustainable for future generations with declining wages, even if oil income is sustainable into the foreseeable future in the actuarial sense. Saudi worker income has not been sustained as private-sector wages declined sharply in recent decades, while government-sector worker income increased. The paper reviews Saudi Arabia’s labor market conditions with recent supporting data to explain the causes of persistent unemployment and declining wages. A major cause is labor market distortions resulting from government-sector wage policies. Empirical findings substantiate the theoretical arguments. Discussion of salient policy issues concludes the paper. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350013-1-1350013-31 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500132 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500132 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350013-1-1350013-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sami Ben Naceur Author-X-Name-First: Sami Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Naceur Author-Name: Magda Kandil Author-X-Name-First: Magda Author-X-Name-Last: Kandil Title: Has the Basel Capital Requirement Caused Credit Crunch in the Mena Region? Abstract: The 1988 Basel I Accord set the common requirements of bank capital to promote the soundness and stability of the international banking system. The agreement required banks to hold capital in proportion to their perceived credit risks, and this requirement may have caused a “credit crunch,” a significant reduction in the supply of credit. We investigate the direct link between the implementation of the Basel I Accord and lending activities, using a data set spanning annual observations covering 1989–2004 for banks in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia. The results provide clear support for a significant increase in credit growth following the implementation of capital regulations, in general. Despite higher capital adequacy ratios, banks expanded credit and asset growth. Credit gTowth appears to be driven by demand fluctuations attributed to real growth, cost of borrowing, and exchange rate risk. Overall, the effects of macroeconomic variables, in contrast to capital adequacy, appear to be more dominant in determining credit growth, regardless of the capital adequacy ratio, and regardless of variation across banks by nationality, ownership, and listing. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350014-1-1350014-33 Issue: 2 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500144 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500144 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:1350014-1-1350014-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Amr Hosny Author-X-Name-First: Amr Author-X-Name-Last: Hosny Title: Inflation in Egypt: Internal or External Driven? Abstract: This paper investigates whether internal or external factors explain inflation in Egypt over the period 2003M1–2012M12. Using an autoregressive distributed lag model, results indicate that money supply and global commodity prices affect inflation in the long-run, while important short-run factors are inflation persistence, exchange rate depreciation and supply side bottlenecks. It is also shown that global commodity prices, especially energy prices, pass-through into headline inflation in Egypt with a short lag. These results take into account the different stationary characteristics of different time series variables and are robust to different model specifications. Policy recommendations include the necessity of reforming the government’s energy subsidy bill, less monetization of the deficit and gradual liberalization of the currency in order to curb inflationary pressures in Egypt and put the economy on a more sustainable path. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350019-1-1350019-15 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500193 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500193 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350019-1-1350019-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Author-X-Name-First: Djavad Author-X-Name-Last: Salehi-Isfahani Title: Book Review Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1380001-1-1380001-4 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013800011 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013800011 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1380001-1-1380001-4 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ibrahim Ahmed Elbadawi Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmed Elbadawi Author-Name: Raimundo Soto Author-X-Name-First: Raimundo Author-X-Name-Last: Soto Title: Fiscal Regimes in and Outside the Mena Region Abstract: The 1990s ushered the world not only into a democracy wave, following the collapse of the former Soviet Union, but also into a wave of Fiscal Rules, where the number of countries adopting this fiscal regime steadily rose from only 10 in 1990 to 97 in 2009. Countries that depend on hydrocarbons, in general, tend to suffer from fiscal policies that are highly susceptible to energy price shocks. This provides incentives for implementing fiscal stabilization instruments in the form of fiscal rules. However, the resource-rich but largely democracy-deficient MENA region has been a fiscal rules-free region. Against this backdrop, this paper asks two fundamental questions: Why have MENA countries chosen not to adopt fiscal rules? And what role, if any, might have resource dependence and political institutions played in this outcome? We find that the lack of democracy and the weak systems of political checks and balances that characterize MENA countries appear to have outweighed the positive impacts of oil resources, such that fiscal instability persists despite ample oil revenues. The nascent Arab democracy spring might tip the scale in favor of adopting fiscal rules by emerging democratic governments in the region. However, stronger systems of political checks and balances are also needed and, unfortunately, are not necessarily a certain outcome of the current political changes. A move toward inflation targeting regimes, as proposed for Tunisia and Egypt, might also provide additional impetus for adopting fiscal rules as the evidence of Chile and other inflation-targeting countries suggests. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350015-1-1350015-25 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500156 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500156 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350015-1-1350015-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ozan Bakis Author-X-Name-First: Ozan Author-X-Name-Last: Bakis Author-Name: Nurhan Davutyan Author-X-Name-First: Nurhan Author-X-Name-Last: Davutyan Author-Name: Haluk Levent Author-X-Name-First: Haluk Author-X-Name-Last: Levent Author-Name: Sezgin Polat Author-X-Name-First: Sezgin Author-X-Name-Last: Polat Title: Quantile Estimates for Social Returns to Education in Turkey: 2006–2009 Abstract: Augmenting a Mincerian earnings function with regional data we estimate both private and external returns to education in Turkey using Instrumental Variables, Ordinary Least Squares, Quantile Regression and Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression methods. Our results indicate a median external return between 1.5% and 2.3% for 2006–2009. There is some evidence supporting the skill-biased technical change hypothesis. External returns are uniformly higher for women. We point out some policy implications. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350017-1-1350017-23 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201350017X File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201350017X File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350017-1-1350017-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Samir Ben Ali Author-X-Name-First: Samir Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Ali Title: Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Tunisia: Empirical Issues Abstract: In this paper, we present empirical estimations of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for Tunisia using the generalized method of moments. We study empirical issues related to measuring variables of the theoretical model, and the impact of choices made at this level on its empirical validation. Our results support the hybrid version of the NKPC, with higher fraction of the forward-looking component. In addition, we establish the sensitivity of the estimation results to the choice of the driving variable measure. Our finding is that the success of the output gap variable in the validation of the theoretical relationship is conditional on the implemented measure, and that the deviation of the real exchange rate as a driving variable could be a good choice, due to the openness degree of the Tunisian economy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350016-1-1350016-17 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500168 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500168 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350016-1-1350016-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Santiago Herrera Author-X-Name-First: Santiago Author-X-Name-Last: Herrera Author-Name: Karim Badr Author-X-Name-First: Karim Author-X-Name-Last: Badr Title: Heterogeneity in Returns to Investment in Education in Egypt Abstract: The paper estimates the rates of return to investment in education in Egypt, allowing for multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals. The paper finds that, in the period 1998–2006, returns to education increased for workers with higher education, but fell for workers with intermediate education levels; the relative wage of illiterate workers also fell in the period. This change can be explained by supply and demand factors. On the supply side, the number of workers with intermediate education, as well as illiterate ones, outpaced the growth of other categories joining the labor force during the decade. From the labor demand side, the Egyptian economy experienced a structural transformation by which sectors demanding higher-skilled labor expanded. In Egypt, individuals are sorted into different educational tracks, creating the first source of heterogeneity. Second, the paper finds that large-firm workers earn higher returns than small-firm workers. Third, females have larger returns to education. Formal workers earn higher rates of return to education than those in the informal sector, which did not happen a decade earlier. And finally, those individuals with access to technology (as proxied by personal computer ownership) have higher returns. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350020-1-1350020-43 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S179381201350020X File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S179381201350020X File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350020-1-1350020-43 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Serhan Cevik Author-X-Name-First: Serhan Author-X-Name-Last: Cevik Author-Name: Katerina Teksoz Author-X-Name-First: Katerina Author-X-Name-Last: Teksoz Title: Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The originality and significance of the paper are in constructing and analyzing “synthetic” aggregate variables for the GCC as a whole. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms — strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets — would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1350018-1-1350018-21 Issue: 3 Volume: 5 Year: 2013 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500181 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1142/S1793812013500181 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350018-1-1350018-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Oladapo Gbenga Awolaja Author-X-Name-First: Oladapo Gbenga Author-X-Name-Last: Awolaja Author-Name: OlaOluwa Simon Yaya Author-X-Name-First: OlaOluwa Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Yaya Author-Name: Ahamuefula Ephraim Ogbonna Author-X-Name-First: Ahamuefula Ephraim Author-X-Name-Last: Ogbonna Author-Name: Solomon Onuche Joseph Author-X-Name-First: Solomon Onuche Author-X-Name-Last: Joseph Author-Name: Xuan Vinh Vo Author-X-Name-First: Xuan Vinh Author-X-Name-Last: Vo Title: Unemployment hysteresis in Middle East and North Africa countries: panel SUR-based unit root test with a Fourier function Abstract: Unemployment hysteresis of Middle East and North African (MENA) countries is investigated under a battery of unit root testing frameworks in the extant literature, including a recently proposed Panel SUR Dickey-Fuller-like unit root test with Fourier and Exponential Smooth Transition Regression (ESTR) nonlinearities. The Fourier function allows for smooth nonlinear breaks, while the ESTR nonlinearity allows for instantaneous breaks. The two nonlinearity types make the recent approach quite appealing. It has, however, been scarcely applied to empirically test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis. Although we find conflicting stances from ADF, FADF and ADF-SB testing frameworks, evidence of unemployment hysteresis effect in Lebanon is consistent across all three tests. The ADF and FADF tests confirmed the hysteresis hypothesis in Kuwait and Lebanon, while FADF-SB rejected the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis across all the 19 MENA countries. The results from the KSS and FKSS unit root testing frameworks consistently affirmed the hysteresis effect in Oman and Turkey, while there are mixed stances for Kuwait and Lebanon. The results from SURADF and SURKSS only supported the hysteresis hypothesis in Turkey, while the same was confirmed only for Bahrain under the SURFADF and SURFKSS testing frameworks. The unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is confirmed for 12 (about 63.15% of the total number considered) MENA economies. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 318-334 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958587 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:318-334 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Khaled Jeguirim Author-X-Name-First: Khaled Author-X-Name-Last: Jeguirim Title: An inquiry into the regional unemployment disparities in Tunisia: a spatial Durbin model Abstract: This study uses a spatial Durbin model in identifying possible causes of the overdispersion into regional unemployment in Tunisia. Data properties were identified using exploratory spatial data analysis which indicates significant neighbouring effects for several variables. Differences in socio-economic structure between regions explain in part these phenomena. Education is a key factor and also some constraints prevent married women from taking up jobs, thus exacerbating regional unemployment. Regions with important tourism activity do well than others. Tourism sector exhibit important spillover effects on regional unemployment while the impact of agricultural activity is confined to local labour market. The diversification of the industrial fabric at a regional level is not a sine qua non for differences reduction in regional unemployment rates. Developing road infrastructure helps to reduce unemployment disparities. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 265-291 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958559 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958559 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:265-291 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ahmed Kchikeche Author-X-Name-First: Ahmed Author-X-Name-Last: Kchikeche Author-Name: Ouafaà Khallouk Author-X-Name-First: Ouafaà Author-X-Name-Last: Khallouk Title: On the nexus between economic growth and bank-based financial development: evidence from Morocco Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the causal link between bank-based financial development and economic growth in Morocco between 2003 and 2018 using a vector autoregression framework. We test for causality between economic growth and four different measures of bank-based financial development in both the short and the long run. Our results show that bank-based financial development causes economic growth in the short and the long run. Moreover, our results show that economic growth only causes bank-based financial development in the long run. At last, we show that the Moroccan banking sector’s integration with the international financial markets only affects the causal link between economic growth and bank-based financial development by providing short-run liquidity to Moroccan banks. Based on these results, barriers to the financial development of the Moroccan banking sector should be investigated and public policy should focus on designing appropriate policies and programs to alleviate these barriers in order to stimulate the growth of the Moroccan economy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 245-264 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1930830 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1930830 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:245-264 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sharmila Devadas Author-X-Name-First: Sharmila Author-X-Name-Last: Devadas Author-Name: Ibrahim Elbadawi Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Author-X-Name-Last: Elbadawi Author-Name: Norman V. Loayza Author-X-Name-First: Norman V. Author-X-Name-Last: Loayza Title: Growth in Syria: losses from the war and potential recovery in the aftermath Abstract: This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 215-244 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1930829 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1930829 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:215-244 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hamid Noghanibehambari Author-X-Name-First: Hamid Author-X-Name-Last: Noghanibehambari Author-Name: Nahid Tavassoli Author-X-Name-First: Nahid Author-X-Name-Last: Tavassoli Author-Name: Farzaneh Noghani Author-X-Name-First: Farzaneh Author-X-Name-Last: Noghani Title: Labor demand shocks, unemployment, and suicide: evidence from provinces across Iran Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the unemployment rate and suicide rate using data from all provinces of Iran and over the years 2009–2015. We exploit the variations in national industry-specific labor demand changes and province-level industry-composition as plausibly exogenous shocks to the province-level employment growth. Using a 2SLS-IV approach, we find that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with 0.72 and 0.68 higher incidences of suicide attempt and death per 100,000 population, respectively. Although both OLS and 2SLS-IV approach reveals consistent and statistically significant results, the marginal effects of the 2SLS-IV approach are larger, implying that Endogeneity issues underbias the OLS results of the relationship between unemployment rates and suicide rates. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 335-346 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1959830 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1959830 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:335-346 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mushtaq Ahmad Malik Author-X-Name-First: Mushtaq Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Malik Author-Name: Tariq Masood Author-X-Name-First: Tariq Author-X-Name-Last: Masood Title: A decomposition analysis of total factor productivity growth in MENA countries: stochastic frontier analysis approach Abstract: The present study aims to examine the output and total factor productivity (TFP) growth by estimating a stochastic frontier production function for a panel of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, and to decompose TFP growth into technical change, technical efficiency, and scale efficiency. The empirical findings reveal that, while factor accumulation is the main driver of output growth in the MENA region, TFP growth is increasingly accounting for a respectable proportion of output growth, with improved technical efficiency playing a crucial role in productivity growth. Specifically, the average annual TFP growth is found to be 0.846%, with positive contributions from technical efficiency and scale efficiency. However, the results show that technical progress has had a negative impact on TFP growth. The positive growth in technical efficiency suggests that the countries are catching up towards the optimal production frontier. At a disaggregated level, oil-rich countries registered negative effects of technical progress, while non-oil countries registered negative effects of scale efficiency. Technical efficiency, however, accounts for the largest positive factor in TFP growth in both oil and non-oil country groups. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 347-366 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1987147 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1987147 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:347-366 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Suzan Abdel-Rahman Author-X-Name-First: Suzan Author-X-Name-Last: Abdel-Rahman Author-Name: Mohamed R. Abonazel Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed R. Author-X-Name-Last: Abonazel Title: New measure of catastrophic health expenditures with application on rural Egypt Abstract: Reducing Out-of-pocket (OOP) health payments is an essential element to protect households from financial risks and eradicate extreme poverty. This paper aimed to provide a new approach for measuring catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) by redefining subsistence spending to comprise the minimum acceptable level of all necessities. The new approach defined OOP health expenditures as catastrophic payments if they undermine a household’s ability to maintain essential needs that are not limited to food needs as assumed by the Capacity to pay (CTP) approach. The equivalence scale is estimated to reflect the dominant consumption patterns and the Cost of Basic Need Approach (CBN) is employed to measure the subsistence spending. We estimated the burden of OOP health payment on household living standards in rural Egypt using data from Household Income, Expenditure, and Consumption Survey in 2015. Rural areas exhibited a considerable incidence of catastrophic payments. Redefining subsistence spending better detected the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure among poor households. The distribution of CHE became highly regressive and demonstrated that catastrophic payments are more concentrated among poor households. Although poor households have incurred relatively small health payments compared to wealthy ones, this has threatened their standard of living. The highest incidence rates of CHE were also observed among uneducated, unemployed, female, elderly heads, among households with chronically ill members, and those who experienced outpatient services. The poor performance of the health insurance system in protecting vulnerable groups from catastrophic payments creates a critical need to redesign its policies and improve its service quality. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 292-317 Issue: 2 Volume: 13 Year: 2021 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.1958560 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:292-317 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abdulmuttalip Pilatin Author-X-Name-First: Abdulmuttalip Author-X-Name-Last: Pilatin Author-Name: Hasan Ayaydin Author-X-Name-First: Hasan Author-X-Name-Last: Ayaydin Title: The relationship between banks’ credit quality, credit growth and social capital: evidence from Turkish banking sector Abstract: The aim of this study is to empirically examine the relationship between credit growth, credit quality and social capital of all commercial banks operating in Turkey for a period of twelve years between 2007 and 2018 on the basis of 81 provinces.In order to measure social capital on a provincial basis, the independent variable SC1 was obtained by applying principal component analysis to the variables consisting of 2 network and 2 norm variables. In addition, province-based organ donation rate was used as an alternative social capital variable. Changes in Total Loans (ΔTL), Changes in Real Estate Loans (ΔREL), Changes in Commercial and Industrial Loans (ΔCIL), Changes in Construction Loans (ΔCL), Changes in Non-Performing Loans (ΔNPL), Ratio of Non-Performing Loans to Total Loans (NPL/TL) and Ratio of Non-Performing Loans to Total Assets (NPL/TA) were determined as the dependent variable. The relationship between the level of social capital (SC1) and seven dependent variables on a provincial basis in Turkey was analyzed and measured using panel data techniques. The results of the analysis show that the relationship between the social capital level of the provinces, credit growth and non-performing loans are negative and significant. The results of the study show that the level of social capital is important and decisive in terms of credit growth and credit risk of banks. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 133-170 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074673 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074673 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:133-170 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nasser Badra Author-X-Name-First: Nasser Author-X-Name-Last: Badra Title: Fiscal policy in times of high debt: tale of Lebanon Abstract: This study empirically identifies fiscal shocks and traces their effect on GDP and its components using structural VAR framework in a highly indebted economy of Lebanon. Empirical findings of this study point to an inefficiency of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activities, stipulating that fiscal policy is conducted with non-Keynesian features. Government expenditure multiplier exhibits near zero effect with magnitude of 0.068 on impact and insignificant otherwise. Also, we document evidence in favor of crowding out effect given central government's borrowings are mainly from the local financial market. Policy implication of this paper is twofold. First, given a non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy, policy makers should refrain from using fiscal tools to counteract business-cycle fluctuations. Second, in order to break through government expenditure inefficiency, government officials must curb a rising budget deficits to harness an increasing cost of capital and, therefore, impeding potential growth of private sector. Previous fiscal policy practice has invoked concerns about sustainability of public debt time path and triggered a sovereign crisis which has been translated into a BOP crisis. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 32-42 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2011565 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.2011565 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:32-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brahim Guizani Author-X-Name-First: Brahim Author-X-Name-Last: Guizani Author-Name: Agata Wierzbowska Author-X-Name-First: Agata Author-X-Name-Last: Wierzbowska Title: Monetary policy in times of uncertainties: evidence from Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco Abstract: This study assesses the actual monetary policy stance in three countries in the MENA region, namely, Tunisia (between 2000 and 2017) and Egypt and Morocco (between 2007 and 2017), based on the Taylor rule framework. Especially, it explores the impact of transition periods and high uncertainties following the so-called Arab Spring on the central bank decision-making process. The results provide no strong evidence in favor of rule-based monetary strategies on the part of the central banks in these countries, which still largely rely on discretion when deciding their policy rates. Nevertheless, they show a remarkable presence of interest rate inertia in the policymaking of these monetary authorities. Moreover, our findings reveal a strong dependence of the policy rates in Tunisia and Egypt on the variations of exchange rates, especially during the agitated and inflationary periods of transition. However, some signs of an orientation toward rule-based policies seem to arise in case of Tunisia and Morocco in the transition period, with increased sensitivity of short-term interest rate to inflation gap in the former and to output gap in case of the latter country; yet the confirmation of this evolution requires more time. Furthermore, the estimation of a threshold model where the threshold variable is allowed to vary over time demonstrates the existence of certain opportunistic behavior on the part of the central banks of Tunisia and Egypt. The responsiveness of their monetary policies is more intense when the inflation rate exceeds a certain intermediate target. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 70-94 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074670 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:70-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kowsar Yousefi Author-X-Name-First: Kowsar Author-X-Name-Last: Yousefi Author-Name: Salman Farajnia Author-X-Name-First: Salman Author-X-Name-Last: Farajnia Title: Energy as a substitute for factors of production: case study of an oil rich economy Abstract: Academic literature and policy notes place great emphasis on the relationship between energy carriers and factors of production. We have evidence from a subsidized economy that provides nationwide energy subsidies; with inferences that partly contradict previous findings. We use a panel of Iranian plants from 2004 to 2013. In 2010, the country conducted an energy reform to increase energy productivity. We use translog functions with SUR and GMM estimators, with clustered and robust standard errors. As a result, the elasticity of energy carriers for labor wages is positive, showing that energy is a substitute for labor on average. The substitution pattern of labor is weakened in parallel with the country's 2010 reform, but not lost completely. Regarding capital, a worsening financial accessibility to the economy after UN sanctions hit the economy in 2012 seemed to have an adverse effect on capital and energy relations. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 171-198 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2079294 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2079294 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:171-198 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nora Aboushady Author-X-Name-First: Nora Author-X-Name-Last: Aboushady Author-Name: Yasmine Kamal Author-X-Name-First: Yasmine Author-X-Name-Last: Kamal Author-Name: Chahir Zaki Author-X-Name-First: Chahir Author-X-Name-Last: Zaki Title: Disentangling the impact of trade barriers on wages: evidence from the MENA region Abstract: This paper proposes a comprehensive assessment of the effect of different trade barriers (tariffs, non-tariff measures and services restrictions) on wage disparities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We look at wage disparities from three dimensions: industry premia, gender-based and skill-based disparities. We use three Labor Market Surveys for Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia to directly assess the effect of trade policy on wage disparities using the human capital model. To which different trade barriers are added. Our results suggest that, in general, the effect of services restrictions and non-tariff measures is much stronger than that of tariffs on wage premium. When we look at different segments, we found that females are more affected by non-tariff measures than their male counterparts. At the skill level, given the abundancy of blue collars in the MENA region, production workers are less affected by both non-tariff measures and by services restrictions than non-production workers but more affected by tariffs. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 43-69 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2021364 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.2021364 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:43-69 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Title: Beware of the echo: the evolution of Egypt’s population and labor force from 2000 to 2050 Abstract: I argue in this paper that although recent developments had temporarily reduced demographic pressures on the Egyptian labor market, such pressures will return with a vengeance in the next decade. The sizable echo generation born between 2005 and 2015 is the reflection of the large youth bulge generation born in the early 1980s; a reflection that was further compounded by rising fertility rates in the late 2000s and early 2010s. As the echo generation reaches working age, the net annual increase to the labor force will rise from 575 thousand per year in 2020–25 to 800 thousand per year in 2030–35, which will pose a major job creation challenge. This upcoming wave of new entrants will also be substantially more educated, with 50–60 percent having secondary or post-secondary education, and another third having university education or higher. To accommodate this upcoming growth in labor supply and absorb the stock of existing unemployed and discouraged workers, I estimate that employment growth would have to reach 2.7 percent per year, something that would require sustained GDP growth rates in excess of 6 percent per year. The quality of jobs created by the Egyptian economy would also have to improve substantially to satisfy the higher aspirations of the increasingly educated new entrants and curtail the rising rates of discouragement among female new entrants. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-31 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2021.2007649 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2021.2007649 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:1-31 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shereen Nosier Author-X-Name-First: Shereen Author-X-Name-Last: Nosier Author-Name: Aya El-Karamani Author-X-Name-First: Aya Author-X-Name-Last: El-Karamani Author-Name: Reham Salah Author-X-Name-First: Reham Author-X-Name-Last: Salah Title: Microeconomic analysis of private returns to education in Egypt: an instrumental variable quantile regression approach Abstract: This study provides updated estimates for the rate of return to an additional year of schooling in Egypt. Additionally, it addresses the major issues of heterogeneous returns and endogeneity of educational attainment. Instrumental variable quantile regression along with other models is employed for that objective. The paper uses the most recent issues of the Harmonized Labor Force Survey and Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey from 2008 to 2018. The findings can be summarized as follows: the returns increase over time up to 2015 then decreases to reach 5.67% in 2018, a number that falls below the global average. Moreover, females’ returns to education are higher than males; the returns are also higher in urban areas compared to rural ones providing an evidence that there exists developmental bias towards urban regions in Egypt. In line with preceding studies, the instrumental variable two-stage least squares estimates are higher than the ordinary least squares’ estimates. Additionally, a confirmation of heterogeneous returns across the wage distribution is presented. The instrumental variable quantile regression estimates exhibit an increasing pattern across the levels of wages. Thus, the less able individuals gain lower marginal profits of education than do the more gifted employees. Indicating complementarity between education and unobservable characteristics and that education may aggravate wage inequality in Egypt. Furthermore, it confirms the presence of the over-education crisis. Moreover, the region-based results in terms of the ability explanation provide that education complements low ability in rural areas while it compensates it in urban ones. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 95-117 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074671 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074671 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:95-117 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mohamed Sami Ben Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Sami Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Ali Author-Name: Boubacar Siddy Diallo Author-X-Name-First: Boubacar Author-X-Name-Last: Siddy Diallo Title: Credit bureaus and financial constraints do corruption matter? Abstract: This study aims to assess whether or not the presence of credit bureaus is associated with more or fewer financing constraints while considering the interfering effect of corruption in a sample of 18 countries in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the period 2011–2014. We consider various financial constraint measures and corruption indices, and assess the stability of the relationship for different levels of economic development and corruption. The estimation outcomes suggest that countries with higher levels of corruption might produce less transparent and falsified information that would make access to sources of financing more difficult for firms. Our findings suggest that curbing corruption creates more efficient credit bureaus that, in turn, decrease financial constraints for firms. The subsample estimations confirm these findings and show that the higher and longer-term corruption in MENA countries than in Eastern European countries make credit bureaus’ less effective, imposing more financial constraints. Our findings remain robust with different corruption indices and with the addition of new control variables such as firms’ sales and size, government and exporting firms, and per-capita GDP, inflation, trade, population and human capital. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 118-132 Issue: 1 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2074672 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2074672 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:118-132 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2144022_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Kamiar Mohaddes Author-X-Name-First: Kamiar Author-X-Name-Last: Mohaddes Author-Name: Mehdi Raissi Author-X-Name-First: Mehdi Author-X-Name-Last: Raissi Author-Name: Niranjan Sarangi Author-X-Name-First: Niranjan Author-X-Name-Last: Sarangi Title: Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC: evidence from Saudi Arabia Abstract: We develop a quarterly macro-econometric model for the Saudi economy over the period 1981Q2-2018Q2 and integrate it within a compact model of the world economy (including the global oil market). This framework enables us to disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of growth shocks originating from the United States, China, and the world economy to Saudi Arabia, as well as study the implications of stress in global financial markets, low oil prices, and domestic fiscal adjustment on the Saudi economy. Results show that Saudi Arabia's economy is becoming more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the United States – in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and China's growing role in the global oil market. A global growth slowdown (e.g. from trade tensions or geopolitical developments) could have significant implications for Saudi Arabia (with a growth elasticity of about 2½ after one year) and the oil market (reducing prices by about 5% for 0.5 percentage point reduction in global growth). We also illustrate that a 10% lower oil prices and stress in global financial markets could both have a negative effect on the Saudi economy, but given the prevailing social contract in Saudi Arabia, their impact is countered by fiscal easing. Finally, we observe that a domestic fiscal adjustment in Saudi Arabia does not show a negative impact on economic growth in the data. The impact on growth would depend upon the quality of fiscal adjustment and whether it is complemented with structural reforms. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 219-239 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:219-239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2143748_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Ebaidalla M. Ebaidalla Author-X-Name-First: Ebaidalla M. Author-X-Name-Last: Ebaidalla Author-Name: Mohammed E. Mustafa Ali Author-X-Name-First: Mohammed E. Author-X-Name-Last: Mustafa Ali Title: Chronic illnesses and labor market participation in the Arab countries: evidence from Egypt and Tunisia Abstract: This paper examines the impact of chronic illnesses on labor force participation using labor market surveys data for Egypt and Tunisia. The study also investigates the reverse effect of labor force participation on the incidence of chronic diseases. We adopted the simultaneous equations modeling technique to address the potential endogeneity of chronic illnesses in the labor participation equation. The results reveal that chronically ill people are less likely to participate in the labor force in both Egypt and Tunisia. However, the sub-samples analysis indicates some variations across gender and age groups. Specifically, the effect of chronic illnesses is found to be larger and significant for the male group compared to female counterparts. Likewise, the feedback effect shows that labor force participation exerts negative impact on chronic illness, particularly for the total sample. Moreover, the impact of labor force participation on chronic diseases in elder group is larger compared to its effect in the younger group. The study recommends that policymakers in the Arab countries should endeavor to reduce chronic health conditions in order to boost labor force participation and productivity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 303-322 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2143748 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2143748 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:303-322 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2086367_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Mouna Ben Othman Author-X-Name-First: Mouna Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Othman Author-Name: Mohamed Ali Marouani Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed Author-X-Name-Last: Ali Marouani Title: Pension reform and unemployment outcomes Abstract: This article discusses the interactions among pension reform, labor market and inter-generational distribution issues through an overlapping general equilibrium approach with imperfect labor markets. Workers with different ages are imperfectly substitutable and wages do not clear labor markets. Increasing contribution rates has a strong negative effect on welfare and unemployment, particularly, for the youth. Contrary to the popular wisdom, postponing the retirement age does not entail an increase in youth unemployment. The change in incentives induces a substitution of old-age workers by young workers who constitute the cheapest labor category. However, this scenario substantially increases the implicit tax for older workers as well as for the youngest. Finally, the middle-aged are those that benefit the most from welfare increasing reforms. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 264-281 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2086367 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2086367 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:264-281 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2138617_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Maye Ehab Author-X-Name-First: Maye Author-X-Name-Last: Ehab Title: Women’s employment exits in Egypt: the roles of marriage, children, job characteristics, and women’s empowerment Abstract: Transition to non-employment is prevalent for women in the Egyptian labor market, particularly those working in the private sector. This paper analyzes women’s labor market transitions, particularly to non-employment and to other labor market states in the time around marriage and childbirth. We test whether individual characteristics, work characteristics, or agency affect women’s transitions. Specifically, the paper answers three main questions: First, what are the explanatory factors for the women’s transition to non-employment? Second, what are the differences between the effect of previous job characteristics and women’s agency on the employment decision? Third, what are the determinants of the transition to other labor market states (multiple employment decisions)? Drawing on panel and retrospective data from the 2012 and 2018 waves of Egypt’s Labor Market Panel Survey, we estimate these relationships using a single risk model and a competing risk model. Results show that marriage and motherhood increase women’s transition to non-employment. The timing of the transition happens at marriage and the year before marriage (anticipation effect). This impact is more considerable for women working in the private sector than the public sector. Women working in non-wage work transition to private wage work in the years before marriage. The results show that the sector of employment plays a crucial role in women’s transition to non-employment. In addition, the availability of external help in the household is considered an important factor that can help retain women in the labor force. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 282-302 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2138617 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2138617 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:282-302 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2143103_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Karim Belcaid Author-X-Name-First: Karim Author-X-Name-Last: Belcaid Title: Economic growth and sustainability of public finances: evidence from Morocco Abstract: This study focuses on the sustainability of public finances in relation to economic growth in Morocco for the period from 1987 to 2019. We set out to explore therewith the non-linear relationship between government size, the level of fiscal discipline and economic growth. This issue at hand has attracted broad public interest and decision-makers’ attention in Morocco, especially after the financial crisis of 2008 and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to determine government optimal size, we apply the Hansen's approach which postulates the coexistence of different fiscal regimes conditioned by the public debt, government expenditures, and tax revenues in the form of a non-linear inverted-U curve. These regimes are separated by an optimal threshold maximizing economic growth below which the impact is positive and above which the impact becomes negative, as the rising side of the curve is interpreted as consequence of higher taxes providing more resources for public investment, which in turn promotes growth. Once the economy reaches the slippery side of the curve, more taxes and excessive public debt become more distortionary and negatively correlated with economic growth. Our findings indicate that Morocco is relatively in a prudential fiscal stance with recessive effects on growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 240-263 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2143103 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2143103 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:240-263 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2146347_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Fredj Fhima Author-X-Name-First: Fredj Author-X-Name-Last: Fhima Author-Name: Ridha Nouira Author-X-Name-First: Ridha Author-X-Name-Last: Nouira Author-Name: Philippe Adair Author-X-Name-First: Philippe Author-X-Name-Last: Adair Title: Lending relationship, small businesses and NPLs in Tunisia Abstract: The banking system in Tunisia suffers from non-performing loans, fuelling the aversion of banks to credit risk and hindering the financing of SMEs. The research question tackles the ‘transactional lending’ versus ‘relational lending’ relationship between a sample of 10 Tunisian banks observed over 2005–2017 and its clients, and its impact on non-performing loans. The econometric analysis first tests a linear model between non-performing loans and the determinants (Size, Ownership and Proximity) of the lending relationship, which suggests that banks are poorly committed in collecting soft information from their clients. Second, the estimation of a (conditional) threshold effect in a non-linear model between these main determinants, distinguishes two regimes, one above and one below the threshold. Three robust outcomes emerge, the (large) size of most banks in the sample constitutes a barrier to meeting loan applications from SMEs, and enhancing tighter customer relationship with a higher number of branches as well as foreign participation in the share capital of these banks would enable to meet these demands. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 337-352 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2146347 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2146347 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:337-352 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2138614_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Ruya Karci Author-X-Name-First: Ruya Author-X-Name-Last: Karci Author-Name: Nukhet Dogan Author-X-Name-First: Nukhet Author-X-Name-Last: Dogan Author-Name: M. Hakan Berument Author-X-Name-First: M. Author-X-Name-Last: Hakan Berument Title: Syrian refugees to Europe: are they different from the non-Syrians? Abstract: The conflict and violence in the Syrian Arab Republic have led to an increase in Syrians seeking asylum in European countries. In this study, asylum applications of Syrian refugees to European countries are examined, taking into account the geographical neighborhood effects, with annual data for the time period from 2009 to 2018. This paper also aims to compare asylum applications of Syrian to non-Syrian refugees. The estimation results suggest that positive previous asylum application decisions by the corresponding countries have explanatory power on asylum applications of Syrian and non-Syrian refugees. Economic conditions impact on asylum applications of non-Syrian refugees, while similar statistical evidence cannot be found for Syrian refugees. The empirical evidence from Syrian refugees also indicates a positive geographical neighborhood effect, which suggests that the relationship is stronger in countries that are closer to each other. However, the findings from non-Syrian refugees do not indicate that neighboring observations affect one another. Overall, this suggests that Syrian refugees do not move according to economic incentives but with previous asylum applications that resulted in positive and asylum applications in neighboring countries. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 199-218 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2138614 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2138614 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:199-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2143749_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Maryam Mirzaei Author-X-Name-First: Maryam Author-X-Name-Last: Mirzaei Title: Fintech market in Iran: an analysis of Fintech ecosystem and business models Abstract: The global economic is restructured by the wave of deepened technological revolutions brought by the worldwide Fintech storm. To overhaul the rapid growth and expansion of the Fintech industry requires solid data about its market structure. This conceptual study attempts to provide the first inclusive analysis of the Iranian Fintech market as a major player in Middle East. Financial services in Iran are experiencing a quick shift and the adoption of electronic payments is growing rapidly. We identified 275 active Fintech companies in Iran. Our findings show that transaction volume of Fintechs in the payment segment is the largest Fintech solution in Iran amounted to approximately 166.8 billion dollars in 2020. Almost 0.9 million Iranians are using bank-independent personal financial management for analysis of their personal finances. Moreover, crowdfunding solution as a new landscape for financing and innovation is a noble experience in Iranian Fintech market that is growing slowly. The Fintech industry in Iran has great potential and strong infrastructure; however, comparing with the major hubs in the region, such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the Iranian Fintech industry requires more immersion. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 323-336 Issue: 2 Volume: 14 Year: 2022 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2143749 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2143749 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:14:y:2022:i:2:p:323-336 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2160179_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Israa A. El Husseiny Author-X-Name-First: Israa A. Author-X-Name-Last: El Husseiny Title: Does the structure of state budget matter for Egypt’s fiscal deficit? An empirical investigation using an ARDL bounds testing approach Abstract: The current study contributes to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between structure of the State budget and fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in Egypt over the period 1981/1982–2020/2021. The dynamic relationship between the examined variables is tested using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. The study finds an empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that budget structure matters for fiscal deficit in Egypt. A higher share of investment expenditure in total government expenditure is correlated with a lower fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in the long- and short-run. The share of taxes in total government revenue is found to be negatively (positively) associated with the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio in the short-run (long-run). In addition, the current account balance is found to be negatively correlated with the fiscal deficit, in the long-run, which supports the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and the ‘current account targeting hypothesis’. Furthermore, the study finds a unidirectional Granger causality relationship that runs from fiscal deficit to government investment expenditure. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 1-25 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2160179 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2160179 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:1-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2166748_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Hayatullah Ahmadzai Author-X-Name-First: Hayatullah Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmadzai Title: The impact of sand and dust storms on agriculture in Iraq Abstract: Sand and dust storms are a common natural hazard in arid and dry areas of the Middle East and North Africa severely affecting human life and economic sectors, including agriculture production. In this paper, I explore the potential impact of sand and dust storms (SDS) on agricultural sub-sectors in Iraq by combining the household-level production and socioeconomic data with the climate dataset to allow the empirical assessment of agricultural impacts due to dust storms. I find compelling evidence that exposure of crops and livestock to dust storms significantly diminish agricultural productivity, vegetation cover and have significant bearings on the household welfare. Our analysis reveals a 1.1% reduction in the value of crop production as a result of an additional SDS event. This corresponds to about 0.045% losses in the GDP of Iraq, an amount equivalent to about $0.1 billion. Crop yields are reduced significantly ranging from 0.9% to 3% for an additional day of sand and dust storms. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 50-65 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2166748 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2166748 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:50-65 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2167482_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Obbey A. Elamin Author-X-Name-First: Obbey A. Author-X-Name-Last: Elamin Title: Overeducation wage penalty for university graduates: evidence from the MENA region using machine learning techniques Abstract: This study estimates the causal effect of overeducation on wages using cross-sectional survey data from three countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. The Labour Market Panel Survey data from Jordan in 2016, Tunisia in 2014, and Egypt in 2012 and 2018 are used. Overeducation occurs when an individual works in a job that requires someone with less education. Our analysis focuses on employees with high school or college education in paid-wage jobs. Overeducation in the data is self-reported. Between 10% and 50% of the samples in the various countries are overeducated, with overeducation being more pronounced among high school than college-educated people. The novel causal forest method as well as the nearest neighbour and propensity score matching methods are used to estimate the over-education wage penalty. The overeducation job mismatch wage penalty is significant in both total wage and basic wage. The size of the penalty, however, varies considerably between the three countries and is negatively associated with the prevalence of overeducation in the job market in each country. The penalty in total wage ranges from 17% in Egypt in 2012 to approximately 50% in Tunisia. High school graduates have smaller penalties. We recommend policies such as conducting more active labour market programmes to reduce the stock of mismatched workforce, enhancing job search services to improve the quality of matching in new vacancies, and following strategies that motivate entrepreneurship. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 151-188 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2167482 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2167482 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:151-188 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2200729_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Shireen AlAzzawi Author-X-Name-First: Shireen Author-X-Name-Last: AlAzzawi Title: Who can work from home in MENA? Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the world economy. The need for social distancing, lockdowns, or complete curfews has meant that this impact varied significantly across segments of society. Those unable to work remotely, or who work in settings necessitating close contact with others faced a trade-off between their lives and livelihoods. This trade-off was especially pronounced early on during the pandemic when vaccines had not yet been developed, hospitals were overwhelmed and governments were resorting to strict social distancing measures to mitigate the impact on their already strained healthcare systems. In this study, I examine the extent to which jobs can be successfully performed remotely in five MENA countries: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine and Tunisia. I develop a teleworkability index using micro data on occupational characteristics. I find that relatively few jobs in MENA countries are compatible with teleworking and this share varies considerably by industry, gender, age and the formality of employment. I further investigate the ability to work from home in practice by considering the digital divide (a lack of reliable access to vital tools for teleworking, such as a personal computer and reliable internet access) as well as actual work from home behavior during the pandemic using real time surveys. I find that even for those who have high telework potential only few have access to computer and internet. Surveys conducted during the pandemic suggest that our measure of teleworkability was quite close to actual work from home behavior in each country. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 101-129 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2200729 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2200729 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:101-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2160182_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Zouheir El-Sahli Author-X-Name-First: Zouheir Author-X-Name-Last: El-Sahli Title: Globalization and obesity in the GCC countries Abstract: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have some of the highest obesity rates in the world. At the same time, the GCC countries have become increasingly integrated in the global economy as they attempt to diversify their economies. This raises the question whether rapid development and globalization contribute to obesity in these countries. To deal with the existing autocorrelation in the error term and the endogeneity problem, a dynamic panel econometric model is used to estimate the effect of globalization in its various dimensions on obesity in the GCC countries. This study finds evidence for positive and significant effect of social and economic globalization on obesity rates in the GCC countries relative to the rest of the world. The results suggest that (rapid) globalization can lead to higher obesity rates in emerging economies. Hence, policy has an important role to play to cushion the impact of globalization on health and nutrition. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 26-49 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2160182 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2022.2160182 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:26-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2206759_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Wasseem Mina Author-X-Name-First: Wasseem Author-X-Name-Last: Mina Title: Do labor markets and the social contract increase female youth unemployment in the GCC countries? Abstract: In the high-income Gulf Cooperation Council countries, the female youth unemployment rate is nearly double the male youth unemployment rate. The segmented labor market with a relatively inflexible national labor market segment – coupled with a generous social contract – provide job protection to nationals and further the benefits of the social contract. These two factors may shape national youth preferences in favor of protected government jobs and raise youth reservation wages, which increase female youth unemployment. We conjecture that flexible non-segmented labor markets improve female youth unemployment rate while the social contract worsens it. Empirical evidence shows labor market flexibility and the social contract improve female youth unemployment rate, a result robust to changes in model specification and the sample. However, labor market flexibility is essential to the improvement in the female youth unemployment rate, while the social contract is not. This research has an important policy implication for selecting the appropriate tool to address youth unemployment. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 130-150 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2206759 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2206759 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:130-150 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2200727_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: City Eldeep Author-X-Name-First: City Author-X-Name-Last: Eldeep Author-Name: Chahir Zaki Author-X-Name-First: Chahir Author-X-Name-Last: Zaki Title: On the unfinished business of stabilization programs: a CGE model of Egypt Abstract: Several emerging economies have embarked on structural adjustment reform programs that focused more on short-run-oriented stabilization reforms. Yet, longer-term structural policies that can shift their potential GDP were not fully taken into consideration. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we contrast the effects of stabilization and allocation policies in order to examine to what extent they complement or substitute each other. Second, we analyze how the effects of such policies can differ in the short and long term and with different market structures (perfect vs. imperfect competition). Third, we develop a CGE model for Egypt that was subject to a recent reform program developed with the IMF. Our main findings show that stabilization reforms reduce economic growth by 2.5% in the short run. Yet, they positively affect it over time especially if they are accompanied by structural reforms. Indeed, the latter increase economic growth (of 8.6% in the long run). Furthermore, from a social perspective, stabilization reform deteriorates households’ welfare in the short run. Finally, we find that negative effects of stabilization and structural reforms are more pronounced under imperfect competition pointing out the importance of an effective competition policy. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 66-100 Issue: 1 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2200727 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2200727 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:66-100 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2254186_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ahmad Alawadhi Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad Author-X-Name-Last: Alawadhi Author-Name: Mohammad Alali Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Author-X-Name-Last: Alali Author-Name: Shaikha Al-Fulaij Author-X-Name-First: Shaikha Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Fulaij Author-Name: Weam Behbahani Author-X-Name-First: Weam Author-X-Name-Last: Behbahani Author-Name: Marwa Al-Musallam Author-X-Name-First: Marwa Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Musallam Author-Name: Sulayman Al-Qudsi Author-X-Name-First: Sulayman Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Qudsi Title: COVID-19 shock 2020: impact on foreign and Kuwaiti workers and contrasts with employment, earnings and consumption during normal times Abstract: This paper uses micro-level data from the 2013 official Kuwait Household expenditure survey covering 2961 households; and three 2020 COVID-19 shock-related CEO, labor force and household surveys to juxtapose the consumption profiles of foreign workers in Kuwait. The paper contributes to a growing literature on foreign workers by focusing on foreign workers’ employment and earnings and consumption profiles following the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper compares differential consumption responses of 250 foreign and Kuwaiti households during the COVID-19 shock with profiles that existed during 2013, which was a shock-free year. Moreover, since foreigners represent nearly 70% of the population, OLS regressions were applied to the 2013 microdata and the 2020 household survey to inquire if standard consumption functions deployed in the economic literature hold in the case of foreign households in Kuwait and vets how their consumption responded to income shocks. Our data and empirical analysis corroborate that Kuwait’s foreign community bore the brunt of COVID-19 in terms of employment, earnings and living conditions. Moreover, our results broadly indicate congruence with Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, and that for given income levels, consumption heterogeneity holds for foreign workers according to age cohorts, giving support to the life cycle hypothesis. The findings carry significant implications to Kuwait’s dichotomous labor markets, and to households’ income and consumption policies especially to Kuwait’s transformative policy to realize sustainable growth. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 222-240 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2254186 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2254186 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:222-240 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2254190_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Riadh Ben Jelili Author-X-Name-First: Riadh Author-X-Name-Last: Ben Jelili Title: How does political risk matter for foreign direct investment into Arab economies? Abstract: The present paper extends previous work by Burger et al. ([2016]. Risky business: Political instability and sectoral greenfield foreign direct investment in the Arab world. World Bank Economic Review, 30(2), 306–331. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv030) that has attempted to investigate empirically the impact of political instability on FDI flows into the Arab host region. Specifically, based on gravity model approach and annual panel dataset on bilateral FDI projects in Arab countries from 2003 to 2018 (12,240 projects), it explores the following research questions: how does a host country’s political instability and institutional fragility affect the bilateral inward FDI project? Is there any sectoral specificity to this impact if it exists? Which component of political risk poses the most threat for the foreign investor in a specific sector? The empirical investigation highlights the negative, significant and robust impact of perceived political risk in the Arab host-country. It also establishes that there is substantial heterogeneity in foreign investment reactions to political risk reflecting both differences in the component of political risk and sectoral characteristics. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 291-310 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2254190 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2254190 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:291-310 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2215158_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Roberto Zagha Author-X-Name-First: Roberto Author-X-Name-Last: Zagha Title: Tunisia’s economic development: why better than most in the Middle East but not East Asia authors: Mustapha K. Nabli and Jeffrey B. Nugent Abstract: Nabli's and Nugent's book is a multi-dimension review of Tunisia's growth and development. It follows several lines of enquiry which include a historical, political and institutional analysis, as well as an analysis of the economic policies pursued in different periods. It concludes with an assessment of Tunisia's recent descent in political turmoil and regression, and its prospects for recovery. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 329-333 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2215158 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2215158 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:329-333 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2254187_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ashraf Mishrif Author-X-Name-First: Ashraf Author-X-Name-Last: Mishrif Author-Name: Asharul Khan Author-X-Name-First: Asharul Author-X-Name-Last: Khan Title: An empirical investigation of COVID-19 impact on the finance and human resources of logistics and supply chain companies in Oman Abstract: The impact of COVID-19 has badly affected most companies across the economy, with many of them claiming losses in revenue and human resources. As such claimed losses are hard to quantify, we aim to understand the nature and scale of the shortfalls in the company’s revenues and the factors affecting changes in revenues, including demand of company’s services and change in the operational capacity. The impact of shortfalls is also examined on human resources in terms of employee’s layoffs, wages, and new recruitment during the time of COVID-19, specifically the period 2020–2021. The quantitative analysis is based on a survey questionnaire of 61 logistics and supply chain companies randomly selected from the industrial cities and free economic zones in the Sultanate of Oman. Data analysis reveals that the pandemic reduced the demand for services and lowered revenues, subsequently affecting wages and employees’ layoffs. The lack of imported spare parts and raw materials affected the firm’s operational capacity. The surveyed companies suffered from empty shipping containers and heavy traffic at various ports. While providing a more realistic and quantifiable account of the economic impact of the pandemic on firms operating in Oman, our findings have practical implications for policymakers and executives to develop a rapid response system to minimize the financial and human resources costs at the time of crises. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 241-260 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2254187 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2254187 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:241-260 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2254188_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Andrzej Cieślik Author-X-Name-First: Andrzej Author-X-Name-Last: Cieślik Author-Name: Sarhad Hamza Author-X-Name-First: Sarhad Author-X-Name-Last: Hamza Title: Institutional quality and inward FDI: empirical evidence from GCC economies Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) across the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries between 2009 and 2017 using a modified knowledge-capital model of the multinational firm. In particular, we investigate the importance of institutional quality factors. We document the significant effects of institutional characteristics such as government effectiveness, control of corruption, political stability and rule of law, while regulatory quality was found to be less important. Moreover, our study finds that the GCC countries’ FDI can be explained by horizontal market seeking rather than efficiency-seeking vertical motives. Finally, the extended specification results highlight the significant effects of colonial relationships, common language and contiguity. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 261-290 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2254188 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2254188 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:261-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2206754_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Mustapha Kamel Nabli Author-X-Name-First: Mustapha Kamel Author-X-Name-Last: Nabli Title: The tale of three public debt crises in Tunisia, Egypt, and the Ottoman Empire in the 1860s and 1870s Abstract: The paper provides a comprehensive comparison of the experiences of debt accumulation and of the debt crises which took place within less than a decade during the second half of the nineteenth century in Tunisia, Egypt and the Ottoman Empire. The comparison covers the period from the 1850s to the 1880s, as the three countries were attempting to modernize and meet the challenges posed by the industrial revolution and the European expansion globally. They quickly faced financial constraints, increased their external borrowing and ran into crisis. These crises, which were triggered from 1867 to 1876, were part of the second wave of crises during the nineteenth century. The countries differed considerably in the way the crises were managed and resolved. In this context, based on available information, the paper provides a quantitative assessment of the debt burden and the various indicators of creditworthiness using constructed series on total GDP for the three countries for the period 1860–1884. This allows for a comparison of the full processes of debt accumulation, the triggering of the crises and their resolution. In doing so it brings together a wealth of data and information about the factors which impacted creditworthiness and capacity to service debt, relating to trade and fiscal revenues, which played a major role in determining the severity of the crises and the way they were resolved. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 311-328 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2206754 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2206754 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:311-328 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RMDJ_A_2248697_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Djavad Salehi-Isfahani Author-X-Name-First: Djavad Author-X-Name-Last: Salehi-Isfahani Title: The impact of sanctions on household welfare and employment in Iran Abstract: Wide-ranging US sanctions against Iran in the past decade were in large part imposed to harm the living standards of ordinary Iranians in the hope that their leaders would submit to US demands to limit their nuclear program. In this study, I use extensive survey data to assess the impact of sanctions on household consumption and employment. Unsurprisingly, reduction in Iran's export of oil, which dealt a large negative blow to the economy, reduce household expenditures across income strata, raising poverty rates despite government attempts to assist the poor. By contrast, employment did not suffer as devaluation and falling real wages helped local production to substitute for imports that had been previously paid for by oil income. Probit analysis of panel data shows that, all else equal, living in urban areas, in households with older and female heads, and lack of health insurance increase the chance of falling into poverty after the 2018 shock of the US maximum pressure campaign. Journal: Middle East Development Journal Pages: 189-221 Issue: 2 Volume: 15 Year: 2023 Month: 07 X-DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2023.2248697 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17938120.2023.2248697 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:15:y:2023:i:2:p:189-221