Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fiifi Amoako Johnson Author-X-Name-First: Fiifi Author-X-Name-Last: Amoako Johnson Author-Name: Sabu S. Padmadas Author-X-Name-First: Sabu S. Author-X-Name-Last: Padmadas Author-Name: Hukum Chandra Author-X-Name-First: Hukum Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra Author-Name: Zoe Matthews Author-X-Name-First: Zoe Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews Author-Name: Nyovani J. Madise Author-X-Name-First: Nyovani J. Author-X-Name-Last: Madise Title: Estimating unmet need for contraception by district within Ghana: An application of small-area estimation techniques Abstract: The importance of meeting the unmet need for contraception is nowhere more urgent than in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where the fertility decline is stalling and total unmet need exceeds 30 per cent among married women. In Ghana, where fertility levels vary considerably, demographic information at sub-national level is essential for building effective family planning programmes. We used small-area estimation techniques, linking data from the 2003 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey to the 2000 Ghana Population and Housing Census, to derive district-level estimates of contraceptive use and unmet need for contraception. The results show considerable variation between districts in contraceptive use and unmet need. The prevalence of contraceptive use varies from 4.1 to 41.7 per cent, while that of the use of modern methods varies from 4.0 to 34.8 per cent. The findings identify districts where family planning programmes need to be strengthened. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 105-122 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.678585 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.678585 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:105-122 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Erzsébet Bukodi Author-X-Name-First: Erzsébet Author-X-Name-Last: Bukodi Title: The relationship between work history and partnership formation in cohorts of British men born in 1958 and 1970 Abstract: This study investigated the relationship between work history and partnership formation for British men. Two questions were asked: (i) Do instabilities in young men's careers lead to a higher probability of entering into cohabitation and, in turn, to a postponement of first marriage? (ii) Are there cohort differences in the effects of men's careers on their partnership decisions? The analyses were based on data from two birth-cohort studies for men born in 1958 and 1970. The results suggest that highly unstable occupational careers make it very likely that young men's first partnership is a cohabitation rather than a marriage. Further, having an unstable occupational career early in working life is a strong impediment to transforming cohabitation into marriage. Finally, there is no evidence of a weakening between cohorts of the effects of men's work careers on their partnership decisions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 123-145 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.656853 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.656853 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:123-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Véronique Hertrich Author-X-Name-First: Véronique Author-X-Name-Last: Hertrich Author-Name: Marie Lesclingand Author-X-Name-First: Marie Author-X-Name-Last: Lesclingand Title: Adolescent migration and the 1990s nuptiality transition in Mali Abstract: Attempts to explain the rise in women's age at marriage across Africa have focused mainly on determinants in the urban environment, notably women's education and the economic recession. In our study, we examined the migration of adolescent girls as a factor in the transition to a later age of marriage in rural Mali, using an analysis of data from a longitudinal survey conducted over 20 years. The findings show a close correlation between the rise in labour migration and the onset of this nuptiality transition. Continuing changes in marriage patterns include not only its postponement but also a breakdown in the marriage formalization process. Two main mechanisms are documented: a direct one, as migration enables young women to choose the timing of their marriage and is a source of empowerment; and an indirect one, as migration challenges family marriage conventions and contributes to elders disengaging from control over marriage and young people. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 147-166 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.669489 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.669489 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:147-166 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris Author-X-Name-First: Brienna Author-X-Name-Last: Perelli-Harris Author-Name: Michaela Kreyenfeld Author-X-Name-First: Michaela Author-X-Name-Last: Kreyenfeld Author-Name: Wendy Sigle-Rushton Author-X-Name-First: Wendy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigle-Rushton Author-Name: Renske Keizer Author-X-Name-First: Renske Author-X-Name-Last: Keizer Author-Name: Trude Lappegård Author-X-Name-First: Trude Author-X-Name-Last: Lappegård Author-Name: Aiva Jasilioniene Author-X-Name-First: Aiva Author-X-Name-Last: Jasilioniene Author-Name: Caroline Berghammer Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Berghammer Author-Name: Paola Di Giulio Author-X-Name-First: Paola Author-X-Name-Last: Di Giulio Title: Changes in union status during the transition to parenthood in eleven European countries, 1970s to early 2000s Abstract: Couples who have children are increasingly likely to have lived together without being married at some point in their relationship. Some couples begin their unions with cohabitation and marry before first conception, some marry during pregnancy or directly after the first birth, while others remain unmarried 3 years after the first birth. Using union and fertility histories since the 1970s for eleven countries, we examine whether women who have children in unions marry, and if so, at what stage in family formation. We also examine whether women who conceive when cohabiting are more likely to marry or separate. We find that patterns of union formation and childbearing develop along different trajectories across countries. In all countries, however, less than 40 per cent of women remained in cohabitation up to 3 years after the first birth, suggesting that marriage remains the predominant institution for raising children. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 167-182 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.673004 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.673004 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:167-182 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Enid Schatz Author-X-Name-First: Enid Author-X-Name-Last: Schatz Title: Rationale and procedures for nesting semi-structured interviews in surveys or censuses Abstract: Demographers who use survey data and census data from health and demographic surveillance areas can gain substantially from expanding their repertoire of methods to make use of qualitative methods. Similarly, those who conduct and analyse data primarily from semi-structured interviews or focus groups can benefit from information provided by survey research. This paper presents a systematic mixed-methods model-data-linked nested studies-for sampling respondents for semi-structured interviews from survey or census lists. The paper outlines how to conduct these types of study, and their technical and analytical advantages. It highlights the benefits of building on a strong foundation, the ability to compare samples, and the expansion of the range of evidence for, or against, the validity of the substantive findings. Case studies from two data-linked nested projects-in Malawi and South Africa-are used to describe in detail the nested-study approach. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 183-195 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.658851 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.658851 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:183-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Caroline Berghammer Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Berghammer Title: Church attendance and childbearing: Evidence from a Dutch panel study, 1987-2005 Abstract: While researchers have often found that Europeans who report faith-based beliefs or practices have larger families than those who do not, there is a lack of evidence on the reasons for these links. This study investigated whether having a first child affects parents' level of church attendance and whether the frequency of church attendance at different times in life predicts a person's (almost) completed fertility. Drawing on five waves of a large-scale Dutch panel survey, the study used data that cover a substantial part of the respondents' reproductive period (1987-2005). In contrast to findings from the USA, the results suggest a one-way influence: having a first child does not predict a change in church attendance, but church attendance is a strong predictor of future childbearing. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 197-212 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.655304 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.655304 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:197-212 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zhongwei Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Zhongwei Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Name: Allan Puur Author-X-Name-First: Allan Author-X-Name-Last: Puur Author-Name: John Landers Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Landers Author-Name: Frances Stewart Author-X-Name-First: Frances Author-X-Name-Last: Stewart Author-Name: Ruth Dixon-Mueller Author-X-Name-First: Ruth Author-X-Name-Last: Dixon-Mueller Title: Book reviews Journal: Population Studies Pages: 213-218 Issue: 2 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.683251 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.683251 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:2:p:213-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Warren B. Miller Author-X-Name-First: Warren B. Author-X-Name-Last: Miller Author-Name: Jennifer S. Barber Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer S. Author-X-Name-Last: Barber Author-Name: Heather H. Gatny Author-X-Name-First: Heather H. Author-X-Name-Last: Gatny Title: The effects of ambivalent fertility desires on pregnancy risk in young women in the USA Abstract: Many different definitions of the construct of motivational ambivalence have appeared in the literature on reproductive health. Using a theoretical framework in which motivational ambivalence is defined as an interaction between positive and negative pregnancy desires, we propose two hypotheses. The first is that positive and negative pregnancy desires independently predict the risk of an unplanned pregnancy. The second is that ambivalence and three related constructs that are also based on the interaction between positive and negative desires are each important predictors of pregnancy risk. We use weekly journal data collected from a US sample of 1,003 women aged 18-19 years and conduct hazard model analysis to test our hypotheses. Using both dummy and continuous predictors, we report results that confirm both hypotheses. The proposed interaction framework has demonstrated validity, compares favourably with previously reported alternative approaches, and incorporates a set of constructs that have potential importance for further research directed at the prevention of unplanned pregnancy. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 25-38 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.738823 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.738823 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:25-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ethan Sharygin Author-X-Name-First: Ethan Author-X-Name-Last: Sharygin Author-Name: Avraham Ebenstein Author-X-Name-First: Avraham Author-X-Name-Last: Ebenstein Author-Name: Monica Das Gupta Author-X-Name-First: Monica Author-X-Name-Last: Das Gupta Title: Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men Abstract: Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 39-59 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.723893 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.723893 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:39-59 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pavel Grigoriev Author-X-Name-First: Pavel Author-X-Name-Last: Grigoriev Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter Author-X-Name-First: Gabriele Author-X-Name-Last: Doblhammer-Reiter Author-Name: Vladimir Shkolnikov Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Shkolnikov Title: Trends, patterns, and determinants of regional mortality in Belarus, 1990-2007 Abstract: We report analyses of regional trends in overall and cause-specific mortality in Belarus for the period 1990-2007. We explore the respective spatial patterns and attempt to determine the factors responsible for the regional mortality variation. The results show that inter-regional mortality differentials tend to rise, mainly because of the growing advantage of the capital over other regions. The increasing variation is associated with diverging trends in mortality from external causes of death. Mortality tends to be higher in the eastern part of the country. Regional data show that changes in mortality are largely explained by alcohol and socio-economic conditions, as measured by unemployment and poverty rates. Cardiovascular and external-cause mortality are strongly associated with alcohol and unemployment, while poverty is an important predictor of suicide and homicide mortality. Clusters of elevated mortality from certain cancers located in the contaminated zone point to the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 61-81 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.724696 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.724696 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:61-81 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hassan Eini-Zinab Author-X-Name-First: Hassan Author-X-Name-Last: Eini-Zinab Title: Multidimensional life-table analysis of the effect of child mortality on total fertility in India, 1992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06 Abstract: This paper presents a new method for estimating the effect of child mortality on the total fertility rate (TFR). The method is based on discrete-time survival models of parity progression that allow construction of a multivariate multidimensional life table of fertility with four dimensions: woman's age, parity, duration in parity, and number of previous child deaths. Additional socio-economic variables are included in the set of predictor variables in the underlying survival models of parity progression. The life table yields a replacement rate, which measures the effect of one additional child death on the TFR. The method is illustrated by applying it to three Indian National Family Health Surveys. Major findings are that dead children are incompletely replaced, and that the replacement rate rises as the TFR falls, reflecting women's increasing ability to control their fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 7-23 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.737473 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.737473 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:7-23 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kari White Author-X-Name-First: Kari Author-X-Name-Last: White Author-Name: Joseph E. Potter Author-X-Name-First: Joseph E. Author-X-Name-Last: Potter Title: The impact of outmigration of men on fertility and marriage in the migrant-sending states of Mexico, 1995-2000 Abstract: Using the 2000 Mexican Census, we examined whether the level of migration was associated with total fertility and the proportion of women married in 314 municipalities from seven traditional sending states. Across these municipalities, we observe lower fertility in higher-migration areas. Municipalities in the quartile with the highest levels of migration have total fertility more than half a child lower than municipalities in the lowest migration quartile. However, there are no differences in marital fertility by level of migration, indicating that lower proportions of women married account for lower total fertility in high-migration municipalities. In municipal-level regression models, lower sex ratios are associated with a lower proportion of women married, while there is an inverse association between education and marriage. The level of migration also has an independent association with marriage, suggesting that there may be changing ideas surrounding family formation in high-migration areas. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 83-95 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.721518 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.721518 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:83-95 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niina Metsä-Simola Author-X-Name-First: Niina Author-X-Name-Last: Metsä-Simola Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen Author-X-Name-First: Pekka Author-X-Name-Last: Martikainen Title: The short-term and long-term effects of divorce on mortality risk in a large Finnish cohort, 1990-2003 Abstract: This study investigated time patterns of post-divorce excess mortality. Using register-based data, we followed 252,641 married Finns from 1990 until subsequent date of divorce and death until 2003. Among men, excess mortality is highest immediately after divorce, followed by a decline over 8 years. Among women, excess mortality shows little variation over time, and is lower than among men at all durations of divorce. Social and economic factors-largely adjustment for post-divorce factors-explain about half of the excess mortality. This suggests that excess mortality is partly mediated through poor social and economic resources. Mortality attributable to accidental, violent, and alcohol-related causes is pronounced shortly after divorce. It shows a strong pattern of reduction over the next 4 years among divorced men, and is high for only 6 months after divorce among divorced women. These findings emphasize the importance of short-term psychological distress, particularly among men. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 97-110 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.746386 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.746386 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:97-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jackie Li Author-X-Name-First: Jackie Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: A Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality and life expectancy jointly for females and males Abstract: We examine the application of a Poisson common factor model for the projection of mortality jointly for females and males. The model structure is an extension of the classical Lee-Carter method in which there is a common factor for the aggregate population, while a number of additional sex-specific factors can also be incorporated. The Poisson distribution is a natural choice for modelling the number of deaths, and its use provides a formal statistical framework for model selection, parameter estimation, and data analysis. Our results for Australian data show that this model leads to projected life expectancy values similar to those produced by the separate projection of mortality for females and males, but possesses the additional advantage of ensuring that the projected male-to-female ratio for death rates at each age converges to a constant. Moreover, the randomness of the corresponding residuals indicates that the model fit is satisfactory. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 111-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.689316 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.689316 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:111-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jakub Bijak Author-X-Name-First: Jakub Author-X-Name-Last: Bijak Author-Name: Eric Silverman Author-X-Name-First: Eric Author-X-Name-Last: Silverman Title: Probability and Social Science. Methodological Relationships between the Two Approaches Journal: Population Studies Pages: 127-129 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.765163 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.765163 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:127-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David I. Kertzer Author-X-Name-First: David I. Author-X-Name-Last: Kertzer Title: Understanding Family Change and Variation: Toward a Theory of Conjunctural Action Journal: Population Studies Pages: 129-131 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.765164 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.765164 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:129-131 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lesley A. Hall Author-X-Name-First: Lesley A. Author-X-Name-Last: Hall Title: Sinners? Scroungers? Saints? Unmarried Motherhood in Twentieth-Century England Journal: Population Studies Pages: 131-132 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.765215 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.765215 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:131-132 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: William Clark Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Clark Title: Neighborhood Effects Research: New Perspectives Journal: Population Studies Pages: 132-133 Issue: 1 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.765166 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.765166 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:1:p:132-133 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sandra González-Bailón Author-X-Name-First: Sandra Author-X-Name-Last: González-Bailón Author-Name: Tommy E. Murphy Author-X-Name-First: Tommy E. Author-X-Name-Last: Murphy Title: The effects of social interactions on fertility decline in nineteenth-century France: An agent-based simulation experiment Abstract: We built an agent-based simulation, incorporating geographic and demographic data from nineteenth-century France, to study the role of social interactions in fertility decisions. The simulation made experimentation possible in a context where other empirical strategies were precluded by a lack of data. We evaluated how different decision rules, with and without interdependent decision-making, caused variations in population growth and fertility levels. The analyses show that incorporating social influence into the model allows empirically observed behaviour to be mimicked, especially at a national level. These findings shed light on individual-level mechanisms through which the French demographic transition may have developed. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 135-155 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.774435 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.774435 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:135-155 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Les Mayhew Author-X-Name-First: Les Author-X-Name-Last: Mayhew Author-Name: David Smith Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Title: A new method of projecting populations based on trends in life expectancy and survival Abstract: There is increasing concern about the lack of accuracy in population projections at national levels. A common problem has been the systematic underestimation of improvements in mortality, especially at older ages, resulting in projections that are too low. In this paper, we present a method that is based on projecting survivorship rather than mortality, which uses the same data but differs technically. In particular, rather than extrapolating trends in mortality, we use trends in life expectancy to establish a robust statistical relation between changes in life expectancy and survivorship using period life tables. We test the approach on data for England and Wales for the population aged 50 and over, and show that it gives more accurate projections than official projections using the same base data. Using the model to project the population aged 50 and over to 2020, our method suggests nearly 0.6 million more people in this age group than official projections. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 157-170 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.740500 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.740500 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:157-170 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christopher Avery Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Avery Author-Name: Travis St. Clair Author-X-Name-First: Travis Author-X-Name-Last: St. Clair Author-Name: Michael Levin Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Levin Author-Name: Kenneth Hill Author-X-Name-First: Kenneth Author-X-Name-Last: Hill Title: The 'Own Children' fertility estimation procedure: A reappraisal Abstract: The Full Birth History has become the dominant source of estimates of fertility levels and trends for countries lacking complete birth registration. An alternative, the 'Own Children' method, derives fertility estimates from household age distributions, but is now rarely used, partly because of concerns about its accuracy. We compared the estimates from these two procedures by applying them to 56 recent Demographic and Health Surveys. On average, 'Own Children' estimates of recent total fertility rates are 3 per cent lower than birth-history estimates. Much of this difference stems from selection bias in the collection of birth histories: women with more children are more likely to be interviewed. We conclude that full birth histories overestimate total fertility, and that the 'Own Children' method gives estimates of total fertility that may better reflect overall national fertility. We recommend the routine application of the 'Own Children' method to census and household survey data to estimate fertility levels and trends. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 171-183 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.769616 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.769616 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:171-183 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Siddharth Chandra Author-X-Name-First: Siddharth Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra Title: Mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in Indonesia Abstract: The influenza pandemic of 1918-19 was the single most lethal short-term epidemic of the twentieth century. For Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, the most widely used estimate of mortality from that pandemic is 1.5 million. We estimated mortality from the influenza pandemic in Java and Madura, home to the majority of Indonesia's population, using panel data methods and data from multiple quinquennial population counts and two decennial censuses. The new estimates suggest that, for Java alone, population loss was in the range of 4.26-4.37 million, or more than twice the established estimate for mortality for all of Indonesia. We conclude that the standing estimates of mortality from influenza in Java and Indonesia need to be revised upward significantly. We also present new findings on geographic patterns of population loss across Java, and pre-pandemic and post-pandemic population growth rates. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 185-193 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.754486 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.754486 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:185-193 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anton Vrieling Author-X-Name-First: Anton Author-X-Name-Last: Vrieling Author-Name: Chantal Melser Author-X-Name-First: Chantal Author-X-Name-Last: Melser Title: Constructing boundary-consistent population time series for the municipalities of the Netherlands, 1988-2011 Abstract: Frequent spatial reorganization of administrative units is common in many countries. It may comprise the merging or division of spatial units, or boundary changes between units. These reorganizations prevent the effective assessment of longer-term population dynamics at a detailed spatial level. To deal with this problem in the Netherlands, we developed a new temporal correction method for the populations of municipalities. Rather than estimating the affected population, we used existing data on the number of persons affected by each spatial change. We assumed that before any boundary changes took place, population development was spatially uniform within a municipality. Systematically transferring proportions of the population from original to newly defined target municipalities back in time provided a corrected time series for 1988-2011, based on the 2011 municipal boundaries. Overall, our results correspond well with a detailed reconstruction for 1999-2009 based on data for individual households. Our procedure may be applicable in other countries with effective population registration systems. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 195-208 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.754049 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.754049 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:195-208 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zai Liang Author-X-Name-First: Zai Author-X-Name-Last: Liang Author-Name: Miao David Chunyu Author-X-Name-First: Miao David Author-X-Name-Last: Chunyu Title: Migration within China and from China to the USA: The effects of migration networks, selectivity, and the rural political economy in Fujian Province Abstract: This paper tests a new strategy for simultaneously studying internal migration within, and international migration from, China. Our theoretical discussion draws on ideas from migration-networks theory and studies of the transition to a market-oriented economy. Data collection is modelled on the Mexican Migration Project. We find that education is more important in initiating internal migration than international migration. Second, although the role of migration networks at a community level seems similar to that for Mexico-USA migration, the networks at a family level show a different pattern. Third, there is evidence that internal and international migration are competing options. Finally, we find that individuals with cadres (public officials) in the family are less likely to undertake internal migration, but more likely to participate in international migration, a finding that highlights the continuing significance of the cadres in coastal rural China. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 209-223 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.756116 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.756116 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:209-223 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hendrik P. van Dalen Author-X-Name-First: Hendrik P. Author-X-Name-Last: van Dalen Author-Name: Kène Henkens Author-X-Name-First: Kène Author-X-Name-Last: Henkens Title: Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands, 2005-10 Abstract: We examined the emigration intentions of native-born Dutch residents and their subsequent emigration behaviour from 2005 to 2010. Data were collected from two surveys on emigration intentions, one conducted locally and one nationally. A number of novel results stand out. First, intentions were good predictors of future emigration: 34 per cent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate actually emigrated within the 5-year follow-up period. Second, the personality of potential migrants and their discontent with the quality of the public domain in the Netherlands (e.g., crowded space and inadequate access to unspoilt nature, pollution, crime level, mentality of people) were the strongest contributors to the motivation to move abroad. Third, the main difference between movers and those who stated intentions to emigrate but had not (yet) followed through was their state of health: healthy people were more likely to follow through with their migration intentions than those in poorer health. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 225-241 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.725135 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.725135 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:225-241 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrzej Kulczycki Author-X-Name-First: Andrzej Author-X-Name-Last: Kulczycki Title: World Population Policies: Their Origin, Evolution, and Impact Journal: Population Studies Pages: 243-246 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.788319 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.788319 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:243-246 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pat Thane Author-X-Name-First: Pat Author-X-Name-Last: Thane Title: The Changing Legal Regulation of Cohabitation. From Fornicators to Family, 1600-2010 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 246-248 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.788320 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.788320 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:246-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maire Ni Bhrolchain Author-X-Name-First: Maire Author-X-Name-Last: Ni Bhrolchain Title: The Demography and Epidemiology of Human Health and Aging Journal: Population Studies Pages: 248-249 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.788322 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.788322 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:248-249 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tomáš Sobotka Author-X-Name-First: Tomáš Author-X-Name-Last: Sobotka Title: Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates Journal: Population Studies Pages: 249-252 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.788324 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.788324 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:249-252 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Beverley Haddad Author-X-Name-First: Beverley Author-X-Name-Last: Haddad Title: Religion & AIDS in Africa Journal: Population Studies Pages: 252-254 Issue: 2 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.790604 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.790604 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:252-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Carl P. Schmertmann Author-X-Name-First: Carl P. Author-X-Name-Last: Schmertmann Author-Name: Suzana M. Cavenaghi Author-X-Name-First: Suzana M. Author-X-Name-Last: Cavenaghi Author-Name: Renato M. Assunção Author-X-Name-First: Renato M. Author-X-Name-Last: Assunção Author-Name: Joseph E. Potter Author-X-Name-First: Joseph E. Author-X-Name-Last: Potter Title: Bayes plus Brass: Estimating total fertility for many small areas from sparse census data Abstract: Estimates of fertility in small areas are valuable for analysing demographic change, and important for local planning and population projection. In countries lacking complete vital registration, however, small-area estimates are possible only from sparse survey or census data that are potentially unreliable. In these circumstances estimation requires new methods for old problems: procedures must be automated if thousands of estimates are required; they must deal with extreme sampling variability in many areas; and they should also incorporate corrections for possible data errors. We present a two-step procedure for estimating total fertility in such circumstances and illustrate it by applying the method to data from the 2000 Brazilian Census for over 5,000 municipalities. Our proposed procedure first smoothes local age-specific rates using Empirical Bayes methods and then applies a new variant of Brass's P/F parity correction procedure that is robust to conditions of rapid fertility decline.Supplementary material at the project website http://schmert.net/BayesBrass will allow readers to replicate all the authors' results in this paper using their data and programs. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 255-273 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.795602 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.795602 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:255-273 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Frans van Poppel Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: van Poppel Author-Name: Dirk J. van de Kaa Author-X-Name-First: Dirk J. Author-X-Name-Last: van de Kaa Author-Name: Govert E. Bijwaard Author-X-Name-First: Govert E. Author-X-Name-Last: Bijwaard Title: Life expectancy of artists in the Low Countries from the fifteenth to the twentieth century Abstract: We investigated the role that urbanization and plague may have played in changes in life expectancy amongst artists in the Low Countries who were born between 1450 and 1909. Artists can be considered to be representative of a middle-class population living mostly in urban areas. The dataset was constructed using biographical information collected by the Rijksbureau voor Kunsthistorische Documentatie in The Hague, the Netherlands. As early as the beginning of the sixteenth century, life expectancy at age 20 amongst the artists had reached 40 years. After a substantial decline in the late sixteenth and the early seventeenth centuries, when plague hit the region, life expectancy at age 20 began to rise again, and this upward trend accelerated after 1850. The life expectancy of female artists commonly exceeded that of males, and sculptors had better survival prospects than painters. In comparison with elite groups in the Low Countries and elsewhere in Europe, life expectancy amongst the artists was rather high. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 275-292 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.765955 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.765955 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:275-292 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Shige Song Author-X-Name-First: Shige Author-X-Name-Last: Song Title: Assessing the impact of in utero exposure to famine on fecundity: Evidence from the 1959-61 famine in China Abstract: This study identifies a significant increase in sterility among rural, but not urban, Chinese women who were conceived and born during the 1959-61 famine that resulted from the Great Leap Forward. Applied to data from two large-scale, nationally representative, sample surveys of Chinese women of childbearing age conducted in 1997 and 2001 by the State Family Planning Commission, difference-in-differences analysis revealed that exposure to the famine while in the womb caused an increase in the risk of sterility amongst the adult women surveyed of 1.1 per cent. This is a substantial increase given that the overall prevalence of primary and permanent sterility is only slightly over 1 per cent in China. These findings support the hypothesis that a woman exposed to acute malnutrition while in the womb may experience a long-term negative impact on her reproductive system, which could result in permanently impaired fecundity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 293-308 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.774045 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.774045 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:293-308 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gabriele Doblhammer Author-X-Name-First: Gabriele Author-X-Name-Last: Doblhammer Author-Name: Gerard J. van den Berg Author-X-Name-First: Gerard J. Author-X-Name-Last: van den Berg Author-Name: L. H. Lumey Author-X-Name-First: L. H. Author-X-Name-Last: Lumey Title: A re-analysis of the long-term effects on life expectancy of the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68 Abstract: The results of studies exploring the long-term consequences of famine during foetal or infant development are inconsistent. We tested the hypothesis that selection forces occurring during a famine change the distribution of frailty in the affected cohorts, possibly hiding negative long-term effects. Using mortality data for Finland, gathered from the Human Mortality Database, we explored the effect of being born during the Great Finnish Famine of 1866-68 by comparing mortality at age 60 and over for the 1850-89 births, taking into account unobserved cohort heterogeneity. Contemporaneous Swedish cohorts, unexposed to the famine, were used as an additional control group. When cohort heterogeneity is accounted for, a lower life expectancy at age 60 for male cohorts in Finland born during the famine is observed. The results for females are less conclusive. No substantial changes are seen in the Swedish cohorts. In order to provide consistent estimates of the long-run effects of famines, selection forces need to be considered. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 309-322 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.809140 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.809140 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:309-322 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stuart Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Basten Author-Name: Georgia Verropoulou Author-X-Name-First: Georgia Author-X-Name-Last: Verropoulou Title: 'Maternity migration' and the increased sex ratio at birth in Hong Kong SAR Abstract: The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative Region) has recently increased dramatically. Using a data set (N = 850,331) of all recorded births in Hong Kong between 1995 and 2009, we calculated SRBs by parity and immigrant status. The findings indicate a strong son preference among Mainland Chinese who have travelled to Hong Kong to give birth, especially at parity two or above. Logistic regression models show that this tendency is significantly greater among more affluent couples and remains strong even among Mainland Chinese women resident in Hong Kong for any length of time. The SRB of Hong Kong-born couples, though elevated at higher parities, is less skewed. Hong Kong has been serving as an outlet for 'elite' Mainland couples to circumvent family planning restrictions. The analysis also suggests the advantages of a wider set of immigrant variables over a binary construct. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 323-334 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.826372 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.826372 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:323-334 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michel Guillot Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot Author-Name: So-jung Lim Author-X-Name-First: So-jung Author-X-Name-Last: Lim Author-Name: Liudmila Torgasheva Author-X-Name-First: Liudmila Author-X-Name-Last: Torgasheva Author-Name: Mikhail Denisenko Author-X-Name-First: Mikhail Author-X-Name-Last: Denisenko Title: Infant mortality in Kyrgyzstan before and after the break-up of the Soviet Union Abstract: There is a great deal of uncertainty over the levels of, and trends in, infant mortality in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. As a result, the impact of the break-up of the Soviet Union on infant mortality in the region is not known, and proper monitoring of mortality levels is impaired. In this paper, a variety of data sources and methods are used to assess levels of infant mortality and their trend over time in one Central Asian republic, Kyrgyzstan, between 1980 and 2010. An abrupt halt to an already established decline in infant mortality was observed to occur during the decade following the break-up of the Soviet Union, contradicting the official statistics based on vital registration. Infants of Central Asian ethnicity and those born in rural areas were also considerably more at risk of mortality than suggested by the official sources. We discuss the implications of these findings, both for health policy in this seldom studied part of the former Soviet Union and for our understanding of the health crisis which it currently faces. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 335-352 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.835859 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.835859 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:335-352 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nathalie E. Williams Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie E. Author-X-Name-Last: Williams Title: How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal Abstract: This study analyses micro-level variability in migration during armed conflict in Nepal. The analysis is based on a multi-dimensional model of individual out-migration that examines the economic, social, and political consequences of conflict and how community organizations condition the experience of these consequences and systematically alter migration patterns. Detailed data on violent events and individual behaviour during the Maoist insurrection in Nepal and multi-level event-history analysis were used to test the model. The results indicate that community organizations reduced the effect of conflict on out-migration by providing resources that helped people cope with danger, as well as with the economic, social, and political consequences of the conflict. The evidence suggests that the conflict caused the population to be systematically redistributed in a way that will probably affect its future socio-demographic composition-the extent of the redistribution depending on the resources available in each community. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 353-369 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.754927 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.754927 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:353-369 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alex Weinreb Author-X-Name-First: Alex Author-X-Name-Last: Weinreb Title: Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design Journal: Population Studies Pages: 371-372 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.807018 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.807018 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:371-372 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gigi Santow Author-X-Name-First: Gigi Author-X-Name-Last: Santow Title: Registration and Recognition. Documenting the Person in World History Journal: Population Studies Pages: 372-376 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.797675 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.797675 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:372-376 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Calvin Goldscheider Author-X-Name-First: Calvin Author-X-Name-Last: Goldscheider Title: Political Demography: How Population Changes are Reshaping International Security and National Politics Journal: Population Studies Pages: 376-377 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.788317 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.788317 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:376-377 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Chris Langford Author-X-Name-First: Chris Author-X-Name-Last: Langford Title: Famine, Fevers and Fear: The State and Disease in British Colonial Sri Lanka Journal: Population Studies Pages: 377-379 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.801697 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.801697 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:377-379 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ian Shuttleworth Author-X-Name-First: Ian Author-X-Name-Last: Shuttleworth Title: Spatial and Social Disparities: Understanding Population Trends and Processes-Volume 2 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 379-380 Issue: 3 Volume: 67 Year: 2013 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.807017 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.807017 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:3:p:379-380 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Roberta Torre Author-X-Name-First: Roberta Author-X-Name-Last: Torre Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: Income inequality and population health: An analysis of panel data for 21 developed countries, 1975-2006 Abstract: The relative income-health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is an important determinant of population health, but the age and sex patterns of this association are not well known. We tested the relative income-health hypothesis using panel data collected for 21 developed countries over 30 years. Net of trends in gross domestic product per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality measured by the Gini index is positively associated with the mortality of males and females at ages 1-14 and 15-49, and with the mortality of females at ages 65-89 albeit less strongly than for the younger age groups. These findings suggest that policies to decrease income inequality may improve health, especially that of children and young-to-middle-aged men and women. The mechanisms behind the income inequality-mortality association remain unknown and should be the focus of future research. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-13 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.856457 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.856457 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:1-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Satvika Chalasani Author-X-Name-First: Satvika Author-X-Name-Last: Chalasani Author-Name: Shea Rutstein Author-X-Name-First: Shea Author-X-Name-Last: Rutstein Title: Household wealth and child health in India Abstract: Using data from the Indian National Family Health Surveys (1992-93, 1998-99, 2005-06), this study examined how the relationship between household wealth and child health evolved during a time of significant economic change in India. The main predictor was an innovative measure of household wealth that captures changes in wealth over time. Discrete-time logistic models (with community fixed effects) were used to examine mortality and malnutrition outcomes: infant, child, and under-5 mortality; stunting, wasting, and being underweight. Analysis was conducted at the national, urban/rural, and regional levels, separately for boys and girls. The results indicate that the relationship between household wealth and under-5 mortality weakened over time but this result was dominated by infant mortality. The relationship between wealth and child mortality stayed strong for girls. The relationship between household wealth and malnutrition became stronger over time for boys and particularly for girls, in urban and (especially) rural areas. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 15-41 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.795601 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.795601 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:15-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Norman Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Norman Author-Name: Philip Rees Author-X-Name-First: Philip Author-X-Name-Last: Rees Author-Name: Pia Wohland Author-X-Name-First: Pia Author-X-Name-Last: Wohland Title: The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England Abstract: To project the ethnic-group populations of local authorities in England to 2051, estimates of ethnic-specific fertility rates were needed. In the absence of ethnic information on birth records, we developed indirect estimation methods that use a combination of vital statistics, the census (both microdata and aggregate tables), and survey data (Labour Force Survey). We estimated age-specific and total fertility rates successively for five broad ethnic groups encompassed by all data-sets, and for eight ethnic groups encompassed by the 1991 and 2001 Censuses for England. We then used census data to disaggregate the estimates to the 16 ethnic groups required for the subnational projections and the Hadwiger function to estimate single-year-of-age estimates. We estimated the uncertainty around the fertility estimates and used a logistic model to project rates to 2021, after which we assumed rates would remain constant. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 43-64 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.810300 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.810300 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:43-64 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alicia Adsera Author-X-Name-First: Alicia Author-X-Name-Last: Adsera Author-Name: Ana Ferrer Author-X-Name-First: Ana Author-X-Name-Last: Ferrer Title: Factors influencing the fertility choices of child immigrants in Canada Abstract: We analysed the fertility of women who migrated to Canada before reaching age 19, using the 20 per cent sample of the Canadian censuses from 1991 to 2006. Fertility increases with age at immigration, and is particularly high for those immigrating in late adolescence. This pattern prevails regardless of the country of origin, and of whether the mother tongue of the migrants was an official language in Canada. The fertility of those for whom it was an official language is always lower on average than of those for whom it was not, but there does not seem to be a critical age at which the fertility of the former and the latter starts to diverge. Formal education has an effect: the fertility of immigrants who arrived in Canada at any age before adulthood and who were or became college graduates is similar to that of their native peers.An appendix to this paper is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2013.802007 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 65-79 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.802007 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.802007 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:65-79 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kåre Bævre Author-X-Name-First: Kåre Author-X-Name-Last: Bævre Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal Author-X-Name-First: Øystein Author-X-Name-Last: Kravdal Title: The effects of earlier income variation on mortality: An analysis of Norwegian register data Abstract: Several studies have shown a positive relationship between mortality and episodes of income decline, unemployment, or poverty shortly before death or in the more distant past. Our objective was to analyse the mortality effects of earlier income changes more generally, net of the overall level. We used Norwegian register data that included individual histories of annual labour income and focused on mortality among men aged 50-69 in 1990-2002. Men in this age group who, during the preceding 15 years, had experienced at least two substantial falls in income as well as at least one substantial increase, or vice versa, experienced an excess mortality of 17 per cent. For men who experienced fewer changes, there were only weak indications of excess mortality. Variation dominated by falls in income did not have a more adverse effect than variation dominated by rises. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 81-94 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.824603 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.824603 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:81-94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dalkhat M. Ediev Author-X-Name-First: Dalkhat M. Author-X-Name-Last: Ediev Title: Why increasing longevity may favour a PAYG pension system over a funded system Abstract: When pension systems are contrasted it is common to use simplified demographic models, such as overlapping generation models with time-invariant mortality. Breaking with this tradition, we show that for a population with increasing longevity, the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system may be more advantageous than a funded system (FS). Increasing longevity favours the PAYG system because for the workers living longer at retirement than current retirees, it is less costly to fund others' current pensions than their own. At present, the effect amounts to around 15 per cent in terms of the dependency ratio, or six more years at work in the FS, or 1 per cent per annum in terms of the real interest rate. In most developed countries the effect substantially exceeds that of the usually studied biological interest rate. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 95-110 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.780632 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.780632 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:95-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Kolk Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Kolk Title: Multigenerational transmission of family size in contemporary Sweden Abstract: The study of the intergenerational transmission of fertility has a long history in demography, but until now research has focused primarily on parents' influence on their children's fertility patterns and has largely overlooked the possible influence of other kin. This study examines the transmission of fertility patterns from parents, grandparents, uncles, and aunts, using event history models to determine the risk of first, second, and third births. Swedish register data are used to study the 1970-82 birth cohorts. The findings indicate strong associations between the fertility of index persons and that of their parents, and also independent associations between the completed fertility of index persons and that of their grandparents and parents' siblings. The results suggest that, when examining background effects in fertility research, it is relevant to take a multigenerational perspective and to consider the characteristics of extended kin. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 111-129 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.819112 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.819112 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:111-129 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Bruce Author-X-Name-First: Steve Author-X-Name-Last: Bruce Title: Religion and the Demographic Revolution: Women and Secularization in Canada, Ireland, UK and USA since the 1960s Journal: Population Studies Pages: 131-132 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.801699 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.801699 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:131-132 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John F. May Author-X-Name-First: John F. Author-X-Name-Last: May Title: The State and the Stork: The Population Debate and Policy Making in US History Journal: Population Studies Pages: 132-133 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.844952 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.844952 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:132-133 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Knodel Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Knodel Title: Chronicles From the Field: The Townsend Thai Project Journal: Population Studies Pages: 133-134 Issue: 1 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.882605 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.882605 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:1:p:133-134 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Dribe Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Dribe Author-Name: J. David Hacker Author-X-Name-First: J. David Author-X-Name-Last: Hacker Author-Name: Francesco Scalone Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Scalone Title: The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: A comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA Abstract: We used micro-level data from the censuses of 1900 to investigate the impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the fertility transition in five Northern American and European countries (Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the USA). The study is therefore unlike most previous research on the historical fertility transition, which used aggregate data to examine economic correlates of demographic behaviour at regional or national levels. Our data included information on number of children by age, occupation of the mother and father, place of residence, and household context. The results show highly similar patterns across countries, with the elite and upper middle classes having considerably lower net fertility early in the transition. These patterns remain after controlling for a range of individual and community-level fertility determinants and geographical unobserved heterogeneity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 135-149 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.889741 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.889741 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:135-149 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan M. Hoem Author-X-Name-First: Jan M. Author-X-Name-Last: Hoem Title: The dangers of conditioning on the time of occurrence of one demographic process in the analysis of another Abstract: In studies of the fertility of migrants in which the data are confined to the migrants only, estimation bias will normally appear in comparisons of childbearing before and after migration. The same issue arises in studies of union formation before and after first birth, marriage formation before and after home purchase, and in any other comparison of behaviour before and after an index event if one confines the study only to those who have experienced the index event. It is normally better to avoid analysis of behaviour before the index event because such analysis actually conditions on the later arrival of the index event. In this paper, we provide graphical and mathematical representations of this problem and show how one can get a meaningful (unconditional) comparison of behaviour before and after the index event provided the data contain enough information for both sub-periods. Otherwise, the analyst should refrain from making a comparison of this nature. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 151-159 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.843019 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.843019 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:151-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bruno Masquelier Author-X-Name-First: Bruno Author-X-Name-Last: Masquelier Author-Name: Georges Reniers Author-X-Name-First: Georges Author-X-Name-Last: Reniers Author-Name: Gilles Pison Author-X-Name-First: Gilles Author-X-Name-Last: Pison Title: Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends in mortality in children aged under 5 and adults between the ages of 15 and 60 in sub-Saharan Africa, using data on the survival of the children and siblings collected in Demographic and Health Surveys. If conspicuous stalls in the 1990s are disregarded, child mortality levels have generally declined and converged over the last 30-40 years. In contrast, adult mortality in many East and Southern African countries has increased markedly, echoing earlier increases in the incidence of HIV. In recent years, adult mortality levels have begun to decline once again in East Africa, in some instances before the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy programmes. More surprising is the lack of sustained improvements in adult survival in some countries that have not experienced severe HIV epidemics. Because trends in child and adult mortality do not always evolve in tandem, we argue that model-based estimates, inferred by matching indices of child survival onto standard mortality schedules, can be very misleading. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 161-177 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.856458 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.856458 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:161-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aude Bernard Author-X-Name-First: Aude Author-X-Name-Last: Bernard Author-Name: Martin Bell Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Bell Author-Name: Elin Charles-Edwards Author-X-Name-First: Elin Author-X-Name-Last: Charles-Edwards Title: Improved measures for the cross-national comparison of age profiles of internal migration Abstract: We develop and demonstrate the application of a concise set of measures intended to encapsulate key features of the age profile of internal migration and highlight the significant differences that exist between nations in these profiles. Model schedules have been the most common method of comparing internal migration patterns but issues related to the estimation and interpretation of their parameters hinder their use for cross-national comparison. We demonstrate that the interpretation of exponential coefficients as rates of ascent and descent does not best reflect the slopes of migration age profiles, and we propose more consistent measures based on the rate of change in migration intensity. We demonstrate, through correlation and factor analysis, that most of the inter-country variance in migration age profiles is captured by the age at and intensity of peak migration. The application of these two indicators to 25 countries reveals significant differences between regions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-195 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.890243 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.890243 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:179-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Matysiak Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Matysiak Author-Name: Marta Styrc Author-X-Name-First: Marta Author-X-Name-Last: Styrc Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli Author-X-Name-First: Daniele Author-X-Name-Last: Vignoli Title: The educational gradient in marital disruption: A meta-analysis of European research findings Abstract: A large number of empirical studies have investigated the effects of women's education on union dissolution in Europe, but results have varied substantially. This paper seeks to assess the relationship between educational attainment and the incidence of marital disruption by systematizing the existing empirical evidence. A quantitative literature review (a meta-analysis) was conducted to investigate the temporal change in the relationship, net of inter-study differences. The results point to a weakening of the positive educational gradient in marital disruption over time and even to a reversal in the direction of this gradient in some countries. The findings also show that the change in the educational gradient can be linked to an increase in access to divorce. Finally, the results suggest that women's empowerment has played an important role in changing the educational gradient, while the liberalization of divorce laws has not. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 197-215 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.856459 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.856459 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:197-215 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Scalone Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Scalone Title: Effects of nutritional stress and socio-economic status on maternal mortality in six German villages, 1766-1863 Abstract: We examined the effects of nutritional stress on maternal mortality arising from short-term economic crises in eighteenth-century and nineteenth-century Germany, and how these effects might have been mitigated by socio-economic status. Historical data from six German villages were used to assess how socio-economic conditions and short-term economic crises following poor harvests may have affected maternal mortality. The results show that 1 year after an increase in grain prices the risk of maternal death increased significantly amongst the wives of those working outside the agricultural sector, and more so than for the wives of those working on farms. Nutritional crises seem to have had a significantly stronger impact on maternal mortality in the period 2-6 weeks after childbirth, when mothers were most prone to infections and indirect, obstetrical causes of maternal death. The findings indicate that both nutritional stress and socio-economic factors contributed to maternal mortality. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 217-236 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.821153 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.821153 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:217-236 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Smallwood Author-X-Name-First: Steve Author-X-Name-Last: Smallwood Title: Population 10 Billion: The Coming Demographic Crisis and How to Survive It; 10 Billion Journal: Population Studies Pages: 237-238 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.889483 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.889483 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:237-238 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Rotkirch Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Rotkirch Title: Whither the Child? Causes and Consequences of Low Fertility Journal: Population Studies Pages: 239-241 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.902186 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.902186 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:239-241 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alaka Malwade Basu Author-X-Name-First: Alaka Malwade Author-X-Name-Last: Basu Title: Literacy and Mothering: How Women's Schooling Changes the Lives of the World's Children Journal: Population Studies Pages: 241-244 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.889481 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.889481 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:241-244 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Karen Glaser Author-X-Name-First: Karen Author-X-Name-Last: Glaser Title: Global Ageing in the Twentieth-First Century: Challenges, Opportunities and Implications Journal: Population Studies Pages: 244-246 Issue: 2 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.890344 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.890344 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:244-246 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Unnati Rani Saha Author-X-Name-First: Unnati Rani Author-X-Name-Last: Saha Author-Name: Arthur van Soest Author-X-Name-First: Arthur Author-X-Name-Last: van Soest Author-Name: Govert E. Bijwaard Author-X-Name-First: Govert E. Author-X-Name-Last: Bijwaard Title: Cause-specific neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh, 1987-2005: Levels, trends, and determinants Abstract: This paper reports on an analysis of neonatal mortality from communicable and non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh. The competing-risks model employed incorporated both observed and unobserved heterogeneity and allowed the two heterogeneity terms to be correlated. The data used came from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab. The results confirm the conclusions of previous studies about the levels, trends, and causes of neonatal death in the Matlab area: the education of the mother helps protect her children from death from both communicable and non-communicable diseases; the children of a father in a low-status occupation are particularly vulnerable to death from communicable diseases; and children born to mothers aged less than 20 face a particularly high risk of dying from a non-communicable disease. The risks of dying from a communicable disease and from a non-communicable disease were both found to fall significantly as the distance to the nearest health centre decreased. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 247-263 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.902094 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.902094 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:247-263 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kristen Harknett Author-X-Name-First: Kristen Author-X-Name-Last: Harknett Author-Name: Caroline Sten Hartnett Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Sten Author-X-Name-Last: Hartnett Title: The gap between births intended and births achieved in 22 European countries, 2004-07 Abstract: Using data from the 2004 and 2007 waves of the European Social Survey (ESS), we find that for every 100 births intended, about 60 births occur, on average, across 22 countries. This shortfall in fertility masks substantial heterogeneity between subgroups within the populations surveyed. Motherhood status, age, partnership status, and the strength of fertility intentions moderate the relationship between women's childbearing plans and births measured at the country level. Individual-level analyses using data from three countries included in the 2005 and 2008 waves of the Generations and Gender Survey are consistent with our country-level analyses. We demonstrate that repeat cross-sectional data can be used to analyse the correspondence between childbearing plans and births when longitudinal data are lacking. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 265-282 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.899612 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.899612 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:265-282 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Katherine Keenan Author-X-Name-First: Katherine Author-X-Name-Last: Keenan Author-Name: Michael G. Kenward Author-X-Name-First: Michael G. Author-X-Name-Last: Kenward Author-Name: Emily Grundy Author-X-Name-First: Emily Author-X-Name-Last: Grundy Author-Name: David A. Leon Author-X-Name-First: David A. Author-X-Name-Last: Leon Title: The impact of alcohol consumption on patterns of union formation in Russia 1998-2010: An assessment using longitudinal data Abstract: Using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1998-2010, we investigated the extent to which patterns of alcohol consumption in Russia are associated with the subsequent likelihood of entry into cohabitation and marriage. Using discrete-time event history analysis we estimated for 16-50 year olds the extent to which the probabilities of entry into the two types of union were affected by the amount of alcohol drunk and the pattern of drinking, adjusted to allow for social and demographic factors including income, employment, and health. The results show that individuals who did not drink alcohol were less likely to embark on either cohabitation or marriage, that frequent consumption of alcohol was associated with a greater chance of entering unmarried cohabitation than of entering into a marriage, and that heavy drinkers were less likely to convert their relationship from cohabitation to marriage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 283-303 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.955045 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.955045 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:283-303 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Weixiang Luo Author-X-Name-First: Weixiang Author-X-Name-Last: Luo Author-Name: Yu Xie Author-X-Name-First: Yu Author-X-Name-Last: Xie Title: Socio-economic disparities in mortality among the elderly in China Abstract: This longitudinal study of mortality among the elderly (65 and over) in China used a large representative sample to examine the association between mortality and three different socio-economic status (SES) indicators--education, economic independence, and household income per head. The results, while varying depending on the measures used, show that there is strong evidence of a negative association between SES and overall mortality. A cause-specific analysis shows that SES is more strongly related to the reduction of mortality from more preventable causes, such as circulatory disease and respiratory disease, than from less preventable causes such as cancer. We also investigated the effects of three sets of factors that may mediate the observed SES-mortality relationship: support networks, health-related behaviours, and access to health care. The results show that for both overall and cause-specific mortality, access to health care is the most important of the three. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 305-320 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.934908 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.934908 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:305-320 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jessica Nisén Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Nisén Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Author-Name: Karri Silventoinen Author-X-Name-First: Karri Author-X-Name-Last: Silventoinen Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen Author-X-Name-First: Pekka Author-X-Name-Last: Martikainen Title: Effect of family background on the educational gradient in lifetime fertility of Finnish women born 1940-50 Abstract: An inverse association between education and fertility in women has been found in many societies but the causes of this association remain inadequately understood. We investigated whether observed and unobserved family-background characteristics explained educational differences in lifetime fertility among 35,212 Finnish women born in 1940-50. Poisson and logistic regression models, adjusted for measured socio-demographic family-background characteristics and for unobserved family characteristics shared by siblings, were used to analyse the relationship between education and the number of children, having any children, and fertility beyond the first child. The woman's education and the socio-economic position of the family were negatively associated with fertility. Observed family characteristics moderately (3-28 per cent) explained the association between education and fertility, and results from models including unobserved characteristics supported this interpretation. The remaining association may represent a causal relationship between education and fertility or joint preferences that form independently of our measures of background. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 321-337 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.913807 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.913807 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:321-337 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: D. Walter Rasugu Omariba Author-X-Name-First: D. Walter Rasugu Author-X-Name-Last: Omariba Author-Name: Edward Ng Author-X-Name-First: Edward Author-X-Name-Last: Ng Author-Name: Bilkis Vissandjée Author-X-Name-First: Bilkis Author-X-Name-Last: Vissandjée Title: Differences between immigrants at various durations of residence and host population in all-cause mortality, Canada 1991-2006 Abstract: We used data from the 1991-2006 Canadian Census Mortality and Cancer Follow-up Study to compare all-cause mortality for immigrants with that of the Canadian-born population. The study addressed two related questions. First, do immigrants have a mortality advantage over the Canadian-born? Second, if immigrants have a mortality advantage, does it persist as their duration of residence increases? The analysis fitted sex-stratified hazard regression models for the overall sample and for selected countries of birth (UK, China, India, Philippines, and the Caribbean). Predictors were assessed at baseline. Mortality was lower among immigrants than the Canadian-born even after adjusting for a selected group of socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. The mortality differences persisted even after long residence in Canada, but appeared to be dependent on the age of the individual and the country of origin. Interpreted in light of known explanations of immigrant mortality advantage, the results mostly reflect selection effects. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 339-357 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.915050 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.915050 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:339-357 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Katherine Michelmore Author-X-Name-First: Katherine Author-X-Name-Last: Michelmore Author-Name: Kelly Musick Author-X-Name-First: Kelly Author-X-Name-Last: Musick Title: Fertility patterns of college graduates by field of study, US women born 1960-79 Abstract: Building on recent European studies, we used the Survey of Income and Program Participation to provide the first analysis of fertility differences between groups of US college graduates by their undergraduate field of study. We used multilevel event-history models to investigate possible institutional and selection mechanisms linking field of study to delayed fertility and childlessness. The results are consistent with those found for Europe in showing an overall difference of 10 percentage points between levels of childlessness across fields, with the lowest levels occurring for women in health and education, intermediate levels for women in science and technology, and the highest levels for women in arts and social sciences. The mediating roles of the following field characteristics were assessed: motherhood employment penalties; percentage of men; family attitudes; and marriage patterns. Childlessness was higher among women in fields with a moderate representation of men, less traditional family attitudes, and late age at first marriage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 359-374 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.847971 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2013.847971 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:359-374 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Spoorenberg Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Spoorenberg Title: Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia Abstract: The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counting of single women is the main source of the discrepancies. After adjustment, survey-based fertility estimates are very close to the figures based on data from the vital registration system. The analysis underscores the risks of taking survey-based demographic indicators as the 'Gold Standard'. Demographers need to undertake more systematic studies on this important issue. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 375-382 Issue: 3 Volume: 68 Year: 2014 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.935461 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.935461 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:3:p:375-382 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Heidi A. Hanson Author-X-Name-First: Heidi A. Author-X-Name-Last: Hanson Author-Name: Ken R. Smith Author-X-Name-First: Ken R. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Author-Name: Antoinette M. Stroup Author-X-Name-First: Antoinette M. Author-X-Name-Last: Stroup Author-Name: C. Janna Harrell Author-X-Name-First: C. Janna Author-X-Name-Last: Harrell Title: An age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence among the oldest old, Utah 1973-2002 Abstract: We used age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65-99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85-89 age group followed by declines at ages 90-99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 7-22 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.958192 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.958192 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:7-22 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lisa D. Pearce Author-X-Name-First: Lisa D. Author-X-Name-Last: Pearce Author-Name: Sarah R. Brauner-Otto Author-X-Name-First: Sarah R. Author-X-Name-Last: Brauner-Otto Author-Name: Yingchun Ji Author-X-Name-First: Yingchun Author-X-Name-Last: Ji Title: Explaining religious differentials in family-size preference: Evidence from Nepal in 1996 Abstract: We examine how religio-ethnic identity, individual religiosity, and family members' religiosity were related to preferred family size in Nepal in 1996. Analyses of survey data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study show that socio-economic characteristics and individual experiences can suppress, as well as largely account for, religio-ethnic differences in fertility preference. These religio-ethnic differentials are associated with variance in particularized theologies or general value orientations (like son preference) across groups. In addition, individual and family religiosity are both positively associated with preferred family size, seemingly because of their association with religious beliefs-beliefs that are likely to shape fertility strategies. These findings suggest the need for improvements in how we conceptualize and measure supra-individual religious influence in a variety of settings and for a range of demographically interesting outcomes. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 23-37 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.995695 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.995695 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:23-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kimberly Singer Babiarz Author-X-Name-First: Kimberly Singer Author-X-Name-Last: Babiarz Author-Name: Karen Eggleston Author-X-Name-First: Karen Author-X-Name-Last: Eggleston Author-Name: Grant Miller Author-X-Name-First: Grant Author-X-Name-Last: Miller Author-Name: Qiong Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Qiong Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Title: An exploration of China's mortality decline under Mao: A provincial analysis, 1950-80 Abstract: Between 1950 and 1980, China experienced the most rapid sustained increase in life expectancy of any population in documented global history. We know of no study that has quantitatively assessed the relative importance of the various explanations proposed for this gain in survival. We have created and analysed a new, province-level panel data set spanning the decades between 1950 and 1980 by combining historical information from China's public health archives, official provincial yearbooks, and infant and child mortality records contained in the 1988 National Survey of Fertility and Contraception. Although exploratory, our results suggest that gains in school enrolment and public health campaigns together are associated with 55-70 per cent of China's dramatic reductions in infant and under-5 mortality during our study period. These results underscore the importance of non-medical determinants of population health, and suggest that, in some circumstances, general education of the population may amplify the effectiveness of public health interventions.

Supplementary material for this article (Babiarz et al. 2014, Suppl.) is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972432 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 39-56 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.972432 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.972432 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:39-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Glenn Sandström Author-X-Name-First: Glenn Author-X-Name-Last: Sandström Author-Name: Lotta Vikström Author-X-Name-First: Lotta Author-X-Name-Last: Vikström Title: Sex preference for children in German villages during the fertility transition Abstract: In the past, parents' sex preferences for their children have proved difficult to verify. This study used John Knodel's German village genealogies of couples married between 1815 and 1899 to investigate sex preferences for children during the fertility transition. Event history analyses of couples' propensity to progress to a fifth parity was used to test whether the probability of having additional children was influenced by the sex composition of surviving children. It appears that son preference influenced reproductive behaviour: couples having only girls experienced significantly higher transition rates than those having only boys or a mixed sibset. However, couples who married after about 1870 began to exhibit fertility behaviour consistent with the choice to have at least one surviving boy and girl. This result represents a surprisingly early move towards the symmetrical sex preference typical of modern European populations. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 57-71 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.994667 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.994667 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:57-71 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Les Mayhew Author-X-Name-First: Les Author-X-Name-Last: Mayhew Author-Name: David Smith Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Title: On the decomposition of life expectancy and limits to life Abstract: Life expectancy is a measure of how long people are expected to live and is widely used as a measure of human development. Variations in the measure reflect not only the process of ageing but also the impacts of such events as epidemics, wars, and economic recessions. Since 1950, the influence of these events in the most developed countries has waned and life expectancy continues to lengthen unabated. As a result, it has become more difficult to forecast long-run trends accurately, or identify possible upper limits. We present new methods for comparing past improvements in life expectancy and also future prospects, using data from five developed, low-mortality countries. We consider life expectancy in 10-year age intervals rather than over the remaining lifetime, and show how natural limits to life expectancy can be used to extrapolate trends. We discuss the implications and compare our approach with other commonly used methods.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.972433 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 73-89 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.972433 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.972433 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:73-89 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ting Li Author-X-Name-First: Ting Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: James J. Anderson Author-X-Name-First: James J. Author-X-Name-Last: Anderson Title: The Strehler-Mildvan correlation from the perspective of a two-process vitality model Abstract: The Strehler and Mildvan (SM) general theory of ageing and mortality provides a mechanism-based explanation of Gompertz's law and predicts a log-linear relationship between the two Gompertz coefficients, known as the SM correlation. While the SM correlation is supported by data from developed countries before the second half of the twentieth century, the recent breakdown of the correlation pattern in these countries has prompted demographers to conclude that SM theory needs to be reassessed. In this paper we use a newly developed two-process vitality model to explain the SM correlation and its breakdown in terms of asynchronous trends in acute (extrinsic) and chronic (intrinsic) mortality factors. We propose that the mortality change in the first half of the twentieth century is largely determined by the elimination of immediate hazards to death, whereas the mortality change in the second half is primarily driven by the slowdown of the deterioration rate of intrinsic survival capacity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 91-104 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.992358 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.992358 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:91-104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kazunori Murakoshi Author-X-Name-First: Kazunori Author-X-Name-Last: Murakoshi Title: Mabiki: Infanticide and Population Growth in Eastern Japan, 1660-1950 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 123-125 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.969573 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.969573 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:123-125 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Skeldon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Skeldon Title: Culling the Masses: The Democratic Origins of Racist Immigration Policy in the Americas Journal: Population Studies Pages: 125-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.975006 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.975006 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:125-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: How We Do It: The Evolution and Future of Human Reproduction Journal: Population Studies Pages: 126-127 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.969574 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.969574 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:126-127 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stuart Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Basten Title: The Family and Social Change in Chinese Societies Journal: Population Studies Pages: 127-128 Issue: 1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.969575 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.969575 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:1:p:127-128 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Coleman Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Coleman Author-Name: Stuart Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Basten Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco C. Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Title: Population--The long view Journal: Population Studies Pages: S1-S9 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1017346 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1017346 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S1-S9 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco C. Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Title: Integrating macro- and micro-level approaches in the explanation of population change Abstract: Demographers study population change across time and place, and traditionally they place a strong emphasis on a long-range view of population change. This paper builds on current reflections on how to structure the study of population change and proposes a two-stage perspective. The first stage, discovery, focuses on the production of novel evidence at the population level. The second stage, explanation, develops accounts of demographic change and tests how the action and interaction of individuals generate what is discovered in the first stage. This explanatory stage also provides the foundation for the prediction of demographic change. The transformation of micro-level actions and interactions into macro-level population outcomes is identified as a key challenge for the second stage. Specific instances of research are discussed. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S11-S20 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1009712 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1009712 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S11-S20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Massimo Livi-Bacci Author-X-Name-First: Massimo Author-X-Name-Last: Livi-Bacci Title: What we can and cannot learn from the history of world population Abstract: Mankind is passing through an exceptional phase of accelerated population growth that generates anxiety about the future. How many billion people will share the limited resources of our globe a century from now? What will be the consequences of globalization for human behaviour? How will individuals react to emerging new constraints? What will be the consequences of climate change for human society? Obviously enough, history cannot offer operational answers to these crucial questions. Nevertheless, history offers some interesting insights into demographic behaviour experienced in the past that could be replicated in the future, with the variations and adaptations dictated by the changing contexts. In other words, there are constants and structures in human behaviour, and there are robust mechanisms in the functioning of demographic systems that are of some help in preparing us to deal with the future. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S21-S28 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.975909 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.975909 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S21-S28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip Kreager Author-X-Name-First: Philip Author-X-Name-Last: Kreager Title: Population theory--A long view Abstract: Any attempt to take a long view of population research, its findings, and applications is bound to raise questions about the state of population theory. Recent research on the history of population thought enables us to include a much more complete account of classical and early modern sources, and of parallel and complementary developments in population biology. This paper considers four major shifts in the conceptual and empirical ambitions of population inquiry over the long term. In general, major conceptual developments in ideas about population reflect major shifts in political and biological theory. The nature of population in European science and society was substantially established before demography emerged as a twentieth-century academic discipline focused chiefly on fertility and mortality. A long view suggests that demography is currently in the course of a shift that constructively re-integrates it with the wider field of scientific and historical population thinking. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S29-S37 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.981095 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.981095 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S29-S37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: Evolutionary contributions to the study of human fertility Abstract: Demography, lacking an overarching theoretical framework of its own, has drawn on theories in many other social sciences to inform its analyses. The aim of this paper is to bring to the demographic community's attention research in the evolutionary sciences on fertility, and to demonstrate that evolutionary theory can be another useful tool in the demographer's toolkit. I first dispel some myths which impede the incorporation of evolutionary theory into demography: I make it clear that evolutionary explanations do not assume that all human behaviour is hardwired and functions to maximize genetic fitness; that they are able to explain variation in human behaviour; and that they are not necessarily alternatives to social science explanations. I then describe the diversity of work on fertility by evolutionary researchers, particularly human evolutionary ecologists and cultural evolutionists, and illustrate the usefulness of the evolutionary approach with examples of its application to age at first birth and the fertility transition. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S39-S55 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.982905 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.982905 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S39-S55 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David S. Reher Author-X-Name-First: David S. Author-X-Name-Last: Reher Title: Baby booms, busts, and population ageing in the developed world Abstract: The key challenge facing contemporary society is a process of population ageing rooted mainly in past fertility cycles. The goals of the study reported in this paper were (i) to analyse jointly the post-1930s baby boom and the baby bust that followed, (ii) to consider the specific ways this particular combination influenced the process of ageing in different societies, and (iii) to evaluate some possible implications for policy of different historical experiences. Demographic time series for 27 nations in the developed world were used. The main results confirm the importance of the boom and bust fertility cycle of the second half of the twentieth century for population ageing. Some countries will experience ageing processes driven mainly by the growth of elderly populations while others will age largely as a result of declines in working-age populations. These differences underscore the need to tailor policy priorities for specific patterns of ageing. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S57-S68 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.963421 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.963421 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S57-S68 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wolfgang Lutz Author-X-Name-First: Wolfgang Author-X-Name-Last: Lutz Author-Name: Erich Striessnig Author-X-Name-First: Erich Author-X-Name-Last: Striessnig Title: Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation Abstract: This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S69-S76 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.969929 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.969929 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S69-S76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Paul Demeny Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Demeny Title: Sub-replacement fertility in national populations: Can it be raised? Abstract: This paper comments on the four main functions demographers perform: fact-finding, analysis, prediction, and policymaking. Successes in the first two of these are counterbalanced by weakness in predictive ability. The focus of the comments, however, is on policy. Demographers were influential in promoting efforts to lower very high fertility but are ineffectual in proposing policies that could reverse the tendency of fertility to sink well below replacement levels. The paper argues for a break from exclusive reliance on the standard measures of modern welfare states intended to raise fertility and urges exploration of radically new approaches. Two promising innovations are briefly outlined: one would give the right to vote to all citizens regardless of age, the voting right of minors being exercised by parental proxy, and another that would reform state-administered pension schemes by arranging a direct transfer of working children's mandatory contributions to social security funds to their retired parents. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S77-S85 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.962930 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.962930 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S77-S85 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael S. Teitelbaum Author-X-Name-First: Michael S. Author-X-Name-Last: Teitelbaum Title: Political demography: Powerful trends under-attended by demographic science Abstract: The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S87-S95 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.977638 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.977638 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S87-S95 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stuart Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Basten Author-Name: Quanbao Jiang Author-X-Name-First: Quanbao Author-X-Name-Last: Jiang Title: Fertility in China: An uncertain future Abstract: As one of the world's two population 'billionaires', the future of China's population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country's famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S97-S105 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.982898 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.982898 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S97-S105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Coleman Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Coleman Author-Name: Stuart Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Basten Title: The Death of the West: An alternative view Abstract: Much has been written about the 'Death of the West', a demise threatened by the low level of reproduction in Western countries. That fate is contrasted unfavourably with the rapid growth of the populations and economies of less developed countries, and the prospect of the numerical and political marginalization of the formerly dominant developed world. We believe that trends in European fertility have been misunderstood and that, with effort and some pain, their consequences for age structure are manageable. Many European societies also enjoy the advantages of demographic and social maturity, the resilience of established consensual democratic institutions, the rule of law, and civil society. The sizes of China and India raise problems of resource sustainability and vulnerability to climate change. China risks falling into a low-fertility trap, reinforced by urban working conditions unfriendly to family formation. Traditional patriarchal and familist cultures may depress fertility rates to unhelpfully low levels in other less developed countries. Journal: Population Studies Pages: S107-S118 Issue: sup1 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 4 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2014.970401 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2014.970401 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:sup1:p:S107-S118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Felix C. Tropf Author-X-Name-First: Felix C. Author-X-Name-Last: Tropf Author-Name: Nicola Barban Author-X-Name-First: Nicola Author-X-Name-Last: Barban Author-Name: Melinda C. Mills Author-X-Name-First: Melinda C. Author-X-Name-Last: Mills Author-Name: Harold Snieder Author-X-Name-First: Harold Author-X-Name-Last: Snieder Author-Name: Jornt J. Mandemakers Author-X-Name-First: Jornt J. Author-X-Name-Last: Mandemakers Title: Genetic influence on age at first birth of female twins born in the UK, 1919-68 Abstract: Using a sample of monozygotic (945, 42 per cent) and dizygotic (1,329, 58 per cent) twin pairs born 1919�68 in the UK, we applied innovative tobit models to investigate genetic and environmental influences on age at first birth (AFB). We found that a substantial part (40 per cent) of the variation in AFB is caused by latent family characteristics. Genetic dispositions (26 per cent) play a more important role than the shared environment of siblings (14 per cent), with the non-shared environment/measurement error having the strongest influence (60 per cent). Like previous studies, this study reveals marked changes in estimates over time, and supports the idea that environmental constraints (war or economic crisis) suppress and normative freedom (sexual revolution) promotes the activation of genetic predispositions that affect fertility. We show that the exclusion of censored information (i.e., on the childless) by previous studies biased their results. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1056823 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 129-145 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1019955 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1056823 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:129-145 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Author-Name: Michel Guillot Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot Title: Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts Abstract: Period life expectancies are commonly used to compare populations, but these correspond to simple juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct life expectancies for cohorts, a complete historical series of mortality rates is needed, and these are available for only a subset of developed countries. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) is a new measure that captures historical information about all cohorts present at a given moment and is not limited to countries with complete cohort mortality data. The value of TCAL depends on the rates used to complete the cohort series, but differences between TCALs of two populations remain similar irrespective of the data used to complete the cohort series. This result is illustrated by a comparison of TCALs for the US with those for Denmark, Japan, and other high-longevity countries. Specific cohorts that account for most of the disparity in mortality between the populations are identified.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1019955 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 147-159 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1019955 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1019955 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:147-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yuyu Chen Author-X-Name-First: Yuyu Author-X-Name-Last: Chen Author-Name: Avraham Ebenstein Author-X-Name-First: Avraham Author-X-Name-Last: Ebenstein Author-Name: Lena Edlund Author-X-Name-First: Lena Author-X-Name-Last: Edlund Author-Name: Hongbin Li Author-X-Name-First: Hongbin Author-X-Name-Last: Li Title: Girl adoption in China--A less-known side of son preference Abstract: In 1987, 4 per cent of girls were adopted within China. Why? Unlike infanticide, abandonment rids parents of daughters while preserving the supply of potential brides. In fact, an erstwhile tradition common in Fujian and Jiangxi provinces had parents of sons adopting an infant girl to serve as a future daughter-in-law and household help. Analysing a nationally representative 1992 survey of children, we found that: (1) girl adoptions were concentrated in the above-mentioned provinces; (2) girls were predominantly adopted by families with sons; (3) adopted girls faced substantial disadvantage as measured by school attendance at ages 8-13. In the 1990s, as the sex ratio at birth climbed, were girls aborted rather than abandoned? Observing that in the 2000 census too many girls appear in families with older sons, we estimated that at least 1/25 girls were abandoned in the 1990s, a proportion that in Fujian and Jiangxi may have peaked at 1/10 in 1994. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 161-178 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1009253 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1009253 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:161-178 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefan Öberg Author-X-Name-First: Stefan Author-X-Name-Last: Öberg Title: The direct effect of exposure to disease in early life on the height of young adult men in southern Sweden, 1814-1948 Abstract: This paper considers whether short-term variation in exposure to disease early in life, as measured by a variety of mortality rates, has an effect on the height of young adults. Height information for men born in southern Sweden, 1814-1948, and included in the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD), was obtained from records of medical inspections carried out as part of Sweden's system of universal conscription. Community-level infant mortality rates were calculated not only by year of birth but also for time in utero and in the first year of life. Comparison between brothers was used to remove the influence of confounding factors. The results suggest that any effect that exposure to disease in early life, as measured by mortality rates, may have had on height, either through selection or scarring, is likely to have been very weak. Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045545 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-199 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1045545 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045545 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:179-199 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Patrick Heuveline Author-X-Name-First: Patrick Author-X-Name-Last: Heuveline Title: The boundaries of genocide: Quantifying the uncertainty of the death toll during the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia (1975-79) Abstract: The range of estimates of excess deaths under Pol Pot's rule of Cambodia (1975-79) is too wide to be useful: they range from under 1 to over 3 million, with the more plausible estimates still varying from 1 to 2 million. By stochastically reconstructing population dynamics in Cambodia from extant historical and demographic data, we produced interpretable distributions of the death toll and other demographic indicators. The resulting 95 per cent simulation interval (1.2-2.8 million excess deaths) demonstrates substantial uncertainty over the exact scale of mortality, yet it still excludes nearly half of the previous death-toll estimates. The 1.5-2.25 million interval contains 69 per cent of the simulations for the actual number of excess deaths, more than the wider (1-2 million) range of previous plausible estimates. The median value of 1.9 million excess deaths represents 21 per cent of the population at risk.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 201-218 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1045546 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:201-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter Glick Author-X-Name-First: Peter Author-X-Name-Last: Glick Author-Name: Christopher Handy Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Handy Author-Name: David E. Sahn Author-X-Name-First: David E. Author-X-Name-Last: Sahn Title: Schooling, marriage, and age at first birth in Madagascar Abstract: The low school attainment, early marriage, and low age at first birth of females are major policy concerns in less developed countries. This study jointly estimated the determinants of educational attainment, marriage age, and age at first birth among females aged 12-25 in Madagascar, explicitly accounting for the endogeneities that arose from modelling these related outcomes simultaneously. An additional year of schooling results in a delay to marriage of 1.5 years and marrying 1 year later delays age at first birth by 0.5 years. Parents' education and wealth also have important effects on schooling, marriage, and age at first birth, with a woman's first birth being delayed by 0.75 years if her mother had 4 additional years of schooling. Overall, our results provide rigorous evidence for the critical role of education--both individual women's own and that of their parents--in delaying the marriage and fertility of young women. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 219-236 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1053513 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1053513 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:219-236 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nicole Hiekel Author-X-Name-First: Nicole Author-X-Name-Last: Hiekel Author-Name: Aart C. Liefbroer Author-X-Name-First: Aart C. Author-X-Name-Last: Liefbroer Author-Name: Anne-Rigt Poortman Author-X-Name-First: Anne-Rigt Author-X-Name-Last: Poortman Title: Marriage and separation risks among German cohabiters: Differences between types of cohabiter Abstract: We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters' intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971-73 and 1981-83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 237-251 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1037334 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1037334 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:237-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Connell Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Connell Title: Sustainable Futures: Linking Population, Resources and the Environment Journal: Population Studies Pages: 253-254 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1052238 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1052238 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:253-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kevin McQuillan Author-X-Name-First: Kevin Author-X-Name-Last: McQuillan Title: Yearbook of International Religious Demography 2014 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 254-255 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1052240 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1052240 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:254-255 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Title: World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century Journal: Population Studies Pages: 255-257 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1057371 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1057371 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:255-257 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sergio Cremaschi Author-X-Name-First: Sergio Author-X-Name-Last: Cremaschi Title: Malthus: The Life and Legacies of an Untimely Prophet Journal: Population Studies Pages: 257-259 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1028796 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1028796 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:257-259 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michel Guillot Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot Title: Tools for Demographic Estimation Journal: Population Studies Pages: 259-260 Issue: 2 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 7 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1052239 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1052239 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:2:p:259-260 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel Goodkind Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Goodkind Title: The claim that China's fertility restrictions contributed to the use of prenatal sex selection: A sceptical reappraisal Abstract: Most observers assume that China's fertility restrictions contribute to the use of prenatal sex selection. I question the logic and evidence underlying that assumption. Experts often stress that China's low fertility is largely voluntary, and that fertility restrictions are an unneeded safety valve. Others claim that China's '1.5-child' loophole, common throughout rural areas, reinforces son preference or intensifies prenatal sex discrimination by hardening fertility constraints. These claims defy logic upon closer examination. Moreover, almost two-thirds of the exceptional distortion of the sex ratio in 1.5-child areas results from excess underreporting of daughters and enforced sex-specific stopping. Prenatal sex selection may explain the remaining third but probably reflects the stronger rural son preference that led to the 1.5-child loophole itself. The recent surge in sex selection of first births that has perpetuated the distortions also seems unrelated to policy. Some son-preferring parents who formerly wanted two children may now genuinely want only one. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 263-279 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1103565 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1103565 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:263-279 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lawrence L. Wu Author-X-Name-First: Lawrence L. Author-X-Name-Last: Wu Author-Name: Steven P. Martin Author-X-Name-First: Steven P. Author-X-Name-Last: Martin Title: Premarital first births: The influence of the timing of sexual onset versus post-onset risks in the United States Abstract: Motivated by long-standing debates between abstinence proponents and sceptics, we examine how socio-economic factors influence premarital first births via: (i) age at first sexual intercourse and (ii) the risk of a premarital first birth following the onset of sexual activity. Factors associated with an earlier age at first intercourse will imply more premarital first births owing to increased exposure to risk, but many of these same factors will also be associated with higher risks of a premarital first birth following onset. Our analyses confirm previous findings that women from disadvantaged backgrounds are younger at first intercourse and have higher premarital first-birth risks than women from more advantaged backgrounds. However, differences in onset timing have a strikingly smaller influence on premarital first-birth probabilities than do differences in post-onset risks. Our findings thus suggest that premarital first births result primarily from differences in post-onset risk behaviours as opposed to differences in onset timing. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 281-297 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1100318 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1100318 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:281-297 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Z. Guilmoto Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Z. Author-X-Name-Last: Guilmoto Title: Mapping the diversity of gender preferences and sex imbalances in Indonesia in 2010 Abstract: Indonesia is usually viewed as a country free of the acute forms of gender discrimination observed elsewhere in East or South Asia, a situation often ascribed to Indonesia's bilateral kinship system. I re-examine this hypothesis by focusing on ethnic and regional variations in sex differentials. New indicators of marriage practices and gender bias derived from 2010 census microdata highlight the presence of patrilocal patterns as well as a distinct presence of son preference in fertility behaviour in many parts of the archipelago. I also present evidence for excessive child sex ratios and excess mortality of females in some areas that appear to be related to son preference and patrilocal residence systems. The findings confirm the association between son preference, sex differentials in mortality, prenatal sex selection, and kinship systems. I conclude with a more regional perspective on demographic vulnerability of females, distinguishing bilateral South East Asia from more patrilineal Melanesia. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 299-315 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1091603 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1091603 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:299-315 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Han Lin Shang Author-X-Name-First: Han Lin Author-X-Name-Last: Shang Title: Statistically tested comparisons of the accuracy of forecasting methods for age-specific and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy Abstract: Although there are continuing developments in the methods for forecasting mortality, there are few comparisons of the accuracy of the forecasts. The subject of the statistical validity of these comparisons, which is essential to demographic forecasting, has all but been ignored. We introduce Friedman's test statistics to examine whether the differences in point and interval forecast accuracies are statistically significant between methods. We introduce the Nemenyi test statistic to identify which methods give results that are statistically significantly different from others. Using sex-specific and age-specific data from 20 countries, we apply these two test statistics to examine the forecast accuracy obtained from several principal component methods, which can be categorized into coherent and non-coherent forecasting methods. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 317-335 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1074268 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1074268 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:317-335 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Avraham Ebenstein Author-X-Name-First: Avraham Author-X-Name-Last: Ebenstein Author-Name: Yaohui Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yaohui Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Title: Tracking rural-to-urban migration in China: Lessons from the 2005 inter-census population survey Abstract: We examined migration in China using the 2005 inter-census population survey, in which migrants were registered at both their place of original (hukou) residence and at their destination. We find evidence that the estimated number of internal migrants in China is extremely sensitive to the enumeration method. We estimate that the traditional destination-based survey method fails to account for more than a third of migrants found using comparable origin-based methods. The 'missing' migrants are disproportionately young, male, and holders of rural hukou. We find that origin-based methods are more effective at capturing migrants who travel short distances for short periods, whereas destination-based methods are more effective when entire households have migrated and no remaining family members are located at the hukou location. We conclude with a set of policy recommendations for the design of population surveys in countries with large migrant populations. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 337-353 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1065342 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1065342 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:337-353 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tak Wing Chan Author-X-Name-First: Tak Wing Author-X-Name-Last: Chan Author-Name: John Ermisch Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Ermisch Title: Residential proximity of parents and their adult offspring in the United Kingdom, 2009-10 Abstract: Using data from a large household survey representative of the UK population, we studied how closely parents and adult children live to each other. We show that residential mobility over the life course tends to increase with the physical distance between the homes of parent and child. There are large differences in intergenerational proximity between the foreign-born and UK-born, and between ethnic groups. The determinants of intergenerational proximity from the parent's viewpoint are not identical to those from the child's viewpoint. Contrary to the findings of some earlier studies, intergenerational proximity, from the child's viewpoint, does not vary with the number of siblings. But from the parent's viewpoint, having more children is unambiguously associated with a higher probability of living close to at least one child. We end with a brief discussion of some possible implications of several long-term demographic trends in the UK for intergenerational proximity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 355-372 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1107126 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1107126 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:355-372 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Heini Väisänen Author-X-Name-First: Heini Author-X-Name-Last: Väisänen Title: The association between education and induced abortion for three cohorts of adults in Finland Abstract: This paper explores whether the likelihood of abortion by education changed over time in Finland, where comprehensive family planning services and sexuality education have been available since the early 1970s. This subject has not previously been studied longitudinally with comprehensive and reliable data. A unique longitudinal set of register data of more than 250,000 women aged 20-49 born in 1955-59, 1965-69, and 1975-79 was analysed, using descriptive statistics, concentration curves, and discrete-time event-history models. Women with basic education had a higher likelihood of abortion than others and the association grew stronger for later cohorts. Selection into education may explain this phenomenon: although it was fairly common to have only basic education in the 1955-59 cohort, it became increasingly unusual over time. Thus, even though family planning services were easily available, socio-economic differences in the likelihood of abortion remained. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 373-388 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1083608 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1083608 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:373-388 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip Kreager Author-X-Name-First: Philip Author-X-Name-Last: Kreager Title: Les theories de la fécondité Journal: Population Studies Pages: 389-390 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1086085 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1086085 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:389-390 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Skeldon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Skeldon Title: Globalising Migration History: The Eurasian Experience (16th-21st Centuries) Journal: Population Studies Pages: 391-392 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1073461 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1073461 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:391-392 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John F. May Author-X-Name-First: John F. Author-X-Name-Last: May Title: Continuity and Change in Sub-Saharan African Demography Journal: Population Studies Pages: 392-393 Issue: 3 Volume: 69 Year: 2015 Month: 11 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1064605 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1064605 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:69:y:2015:i:3:p:392-393 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jakub Bijak Author-X-Name-First: Jakub Author-X-Name-Last: Bijak Author-Name: John Bryant Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Bryant Title: Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes Abstract: Bayesian statistics offers an alternative to classical (frequentist) statistics. It is distinguished by its use of probability distributions to describe uncertain quantities, which leads to elegant solutions to many difficult statistical problems. Although Bayesian demography, like Bayesian statistics more generally, is around 250 years old, only recently has it begun to flourish. The aim of this paper is to review the achievements of Bayesian demography, address some misconceptions, and make the case for wider use of Bayesian methods in population studies. We focus on three applications: demographic forecasts, limited data, and highly structured or complex models. The key advantages of Bayesian methods are the ability to integrate information from multiple sources and to describe uncertainty coherently. Bayesian methods also allow for including additional (prior) information next to the data sample. As such, Bayesian approaches are complementary to many traditional methods, which can be productively re-expressed in Bayesian terms. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-19 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1122826 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1122826 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:1-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark C. Wheldon Author-X-Name-First: Mark C. Author-X-Name-Last: Wheldon Author-Name: Adrian E. Raftery Author-X-Name-First: Adrian E. Author-X-Name-Last: Raftery Author-Name: Samuel J. Clark Author-X-Name-First: Samuel J. Author-X-Name-Last: Clark Author-Name: Patrick Gerland Author-X-Name-First: Patrick Author-X-Name-Last: Gerland Title: Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries Abstract: We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 21-37 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1139164 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1139164 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:21-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mieke C. W. Eeckhaut Author-X-Name-First: Mieke C. W. Author-X-Name-Last: Eeckhaut Author-Name: Megan M. Sweeney Author-X-Name-First: Megan M. Author-X-Name-Last: Sweeney Title: The perplexing links between contraceptive sterilization and (dis)advantage in ten low-fertility countries Abstract: This study investigated the association between contraceptive sterilization and socio-economic status (measured by educational attainment) in ten countries, using data from the 2006--10 National Survey of Family Growth and the 2004--10 Generations and Gender Surveys. The findings confirm that a long-standing association between socio-economic status and sterilization persists in the contemporary United States: female sterilization is associated with economic disadvantage, whereas male sterilization is associated with economic advantage. The latter association is found to be unique to the United States, but female sterilization is associated with disadvantage in most of the other countries studied. While basic demographic background factors such as early childbearing and parity can explain the observed associations in most of the countries, a strong gendered association between sterilization and socio-economic status remains in the United States and Belgium even after adjusting for these factors. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 39-58 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1122209 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1122209 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:39-58 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Laura A. Kelly Author-X-Name-First: Laura A. Author-X-Name-Last: Kelly Author-Name: Samuel H. Preston Author-X-Name-First: Samuel H. Author-X-Name-Last: Preston Title: The contribution of a history of heavy smoking to Scotland's mortality disadvantage Abstract: Scotland has a lower life expectancy than any country in Western Europe or North America, and this disadvantage is concentrated above age 50. According to the Human Mortality Database, life expectancy at age 50 has been lower in Scotland than in any other developed country since 1980. Relative to 15 developed countries that we have chosen for comparison, Scotland's life expectancy in 2009 at age 50 was lower by an average of 2.5 years for women and 1.6 years for men. We estimate that Scottish women lost 3.6 years of life expectancy at age 50 as a result of smoking, compared to 1.4 years for the comparison countries. The equivalent figures among men are 3.1 and 2.1 years. These differences are large enough for the history of heavy smoking in Scotland to account both for most of the shortfall in life expectancy for both sexes and for the country's unusually narrow sex differences in life expectancy. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 59-71 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1145727 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1145727 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:59-71 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mariano Sana Author-X-Name-First: Mariano Author-X-Name-Last: Sana Author-Name: Guy Stecklov Author-X-Name-First: Guy Author-X-Name-Last: Stecklov Author-Name: Alexander A. Weinreb Author-X-Name-First: Alexander A. Author-X-Name-Last: Weinreb Title: A test of the stranger-interviewer norm in the Dominican Republic Abstract: We offer the first empirical test of the ‘stranger-interviewer norm’, according to which interviewers in social, demographic, and health surveys should be strangers—not personally familiar with respondents. We use data from an experimental survey in the Dominican Republic that featured three types of interviewer: from out of town (outsiders); local but unknown to the respondent (local-strangers); and local with a previous relationship to the respondent (insiders). We were able to validate answers to up to 18 questions per respondent, mainly by checking official documents in their possession. Contrary to expectations derived from the stranger-interviewer norm, respondents were more reluctant to show the documents needed for validation when the interviewer was an outsider. Furthermore, and again at odds with the stranger-interviewer norm, we found no difference in accuracy by type of interviewer. Our results have important implications for the selection of survey interviewers in less developed and non-Western settings. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 73-92 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1139740 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1139740 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:73-92 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fabian F. Drixler Author-X-Name-First: Fabian F. Author-X-Name-Last: Drixler Author-Name: Jan Kok Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Kok Title: A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon Abstract: Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756--68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27 per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57 per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 93-114 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1133842 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1133842 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:93-114 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elyse A. Jennings Author-X-Name-First: Elyse A. Author-X-Name-Last: Jennings Author-Name: Rachael S. Pierotti Author-X-Name-First: Rachael S. Author-X-Name-Last: Pierotti Title: The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997--2009 Abstract: As couples across the globe increasingly exercise conscious control over their reproduction, both spouses’ family-size preferences have the opportunity to influence their fertility. Using couple-level measures of rural Nepalese spouses’ family-size preferences and more than a decade of monthly panel data collected subsequently on fertility outcomes, we investigate how both spouses’ preferences influence progression to a third birth in a country where the widely professed ideal family size is two children. Contrary to expectations based on women's relative disadvantage, we find that it is wives’ preferences that drive couples’ progression to a third birth. We find also that the influence of wives’ preferences is not explained by contraceptive use but that this influence is moderated by couple communication about family planning. Wives’ preferences drive progression to a third birth among couples who had discussed how many children to have. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 115-133 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1140806 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1140806 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:115-133 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Phillipp R. Schofield Author-X-Name-First: Phillipp R. Author-X-Name-Last: Schofield Title: Population, Welfare and Economic Change in Britain, 1290--1834 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 135-136 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1125611 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1125611 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:135-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Allan Findlay Author-X-Name-First: Allan Author-X-Name-Last: Findlay Title: The Mobility of Students and the Highly Skilled Journal: Population Studies Pages: 137-138 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1143264 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1143264 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:137-138 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Helge Brunborg Author-X-Name-First: Helge Author-X-Name-Last: Brunborg Title: Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies in Ethnic Conflict Journal: Population Studies Pages: 138-139 Issue: 1 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 3 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2015.1125609 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2015.1125609 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:1:p:138-139 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity Abstract: As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30–74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938–60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 157-173 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1411969 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1411969 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:157-173 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mathias Lerch Author-X-Name-First: Mathias Author-X-Name-Last: Lerch Title: Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans Abstract: Fertility decline in central and eastern Europe (CEE) since the fall of the communist regimes has been driven by both stopping and postponement of childbearing: two processes that have been related to crisis and economic development, respectively. In the Western Balkans these economic and political contexts followed each other in the form of a biphasic transition. I examine whether this sequence triggered fertility responses like those observed elsewhere. Relying on three independent data sources, I cross-validate the levels of, and describe the trends in, union formation and fertility (by birth order) between 1980 and 2010. Results do not reveal widespread declines in fertility to lowest-low levels during the most acute period of crisis. The subsequent postponement of marriage and first birth was also limited, and the two-child family remains the norm. This relative resilience of childbearing patterns compared with other CEE countries is discussed with reference to the institutional context. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 217-234 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1412492 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1412492 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:217-234 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jorge Rodríguez-Vignoli Author-X-Name-First: Jorge Author-X-Name-Last: Rodríguez-Vignoli Author-Name: Francisco Rowe Author-X-Name-First: Francisco Author-X-Name-Last: Rowe Title: How is internal migration reshaping metropolitan populations in Latin America? A new method and new evidence Abstract: Internal migration is a key driver of patterns of human settlement and socio-economic development, but little is known about its compositional impacts. Exploiting the wide availability of census data, we propose a method to quantify the internal migration impacts on local population structures, and estimate these impacts for eight large Latin American cities. We show that internal migration generally had small feminizing, downgrading educational, and demographic window effects: reducing the local sex ratio, lowering the average years of schooling, and raising the share of working-age population due to an increased young adult population. Over time, a rise in the proportion of males and a drop in the share of the young adult population moving into cities reduced the feminizing and demographic window effects. Concurrently, a rise in the average years of schooling associated with people moving into cities attenuated the downgrading impact of internal migration on local education levels. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 253-273 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1416155 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1416155 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:253-273 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jakub Bijak Author-X-Name-First: Jakub Author-X-Name-Last: Bijak Title: Model-Based Demography: Essays on Integrating Data, Technique and Theory Journal: Population Studies Pages: 275-277 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1436026 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1436026 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:275-277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal Author-X-Name-First: Øystein Author-X-Name-Last: Kravdal Title: New evidence about effects of reproductive variables on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa Abstract: There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel–multiprocess model. Most importantly, there are smaller advantages associated with longer birth intervals and being older at first birth. The implications of alternative reproductive ‘strategies’ are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 139-156 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1439180 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1439180 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:139-156 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joanna Marczak Author-X-Name-First: Joanna Author-X-Name-Last: Marczak Author-Name: Wendy Sigle Author-X-Name-First: Wendy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigle Author-Name: Ernestina Coast Author-X-Name-First: Ernestina Author-X-Name-Last: Coast Title: When the grass is greener: Fertility decisions in a cross-national context Abstract: In research and policy discourse, conceptualizations of fertility decision-making often assume that people only consider circumstances within national borders. In an integrated Europe, citizens may know about and compare conditions across countries. Such comparisons may influence the way people think about and respond to childrearing costs. To explore this possibility and its implications, we present evidence from 44 in-depth interviews with Polish parents in the United Kingdom and Poland. Explanations of childbearing decisions involved comparisons of policy packages and living standards across countries. Individuals in Poland used richer European countries as an important reference point, rather than recent conditions in Poland. In contrast, migrants often positively assessed their relatively disadvantaged circumstances by using the Polish setting as a reference. The findings could help explain why, despite substantial policy efforts, fertility has remained at very low levels in poorer European countries, while migrants from those countries often have higher fertility abroad. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 201-216 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1439181 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1439181 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:201-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefano Mazzuco Author-X-Name-First: Stefano Author-X-Name-Last: Mazzuco Author-Name: Bruno Scarpa Author-X-Name-First: Bruno Author-X-Name-Last: Scarpa Author-Name: Lucia Zanotto Author-X-Name-First: Lucia Author-X-Name-Last: Zanotto Title: A mortality model based on a mixture distribution function Abstract: A new mortality model based on a mixture distribution function is proposed. We mix a half-normal distribution with a generalization of the skew-normal distribution. As a result, we get a six-parameter distribution function that has a good fit with a wide variety of mortality patterns. This mixture model is fitted to several mortality data schedules and compared with the Siler (five-parameter) and Heligman–Pollard (eight-parameter) models. Our proposal serves as a convenient compromise between the Heligman–Pollard model (which ensures a good fit with data but is often overparameterized) and the Siler model (which is more compact but fails to capture ‘accident humps’). Journal: Population Studies Pages: 191-200 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1439519 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1439519 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:191-200 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elena Shadrina Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Shadrina Title: Demography of Russia: From the Past to the Present Journal: Population Studies Pages: 279-282 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1441218 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1441218 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:279-282 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Skeldon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Skeldon Title: Internal Migration in the Developed World: Are We Becoming Less Mobile? Journal: Population Studies Pages: 277-279 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1456090 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1456090 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:277-279 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Cecilia Potente Author-X-Name-First: Cecilia Author-X-Name-Last: Potente Author-Name: Christiaan Monden Author-X-Name-First: Christiaan Author-X-Name-Last: Monden Title: Disability pathways preceding death in England by socio-economic status Abstract: The role of socio-economic status (SES) in the last years of life is an under-researched aspect of health inequalities. This study examines disability patterns preceding death using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We use repeated measures latent class analysis to identify the most common pathways preceding death in terms of walking ability and limitations in activities of daily living. Three pathways emerge: one characterized by consistently low disability; a second by a constant high level of functional limitations; and a third by medium impairment. We examine how different SES indicators predict belonging to each disability pathway. Conditional on income, higher wealth is associated with a lower likelihood of belonging to the high disability pathway. Contrary to our expectations, we find no educational gradient in the pathways preceding death. Health inequalities in the last years of life seem to exist especially between individuals with different levels of wealth. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 175-190 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1458993 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1458993 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:175-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christina J. Cross Author-X-Name-First: Christina J. Author-X-Name-Last: Cross Title: Extended family households among children in the United States: Differences by race/ethnicity and socio-economic status Abstract: This study uses nationally representative longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to examine the prevalence and predictors of extended family households among children in the United States and to explore variation by race/ethnicity and socio-economic status (SES). Findings suggest that extended family households are a common living arrangement for children, with 35 per cent of youth experiencing this family structure before age 18. Racial/ethnic and SES differences are substantial: 57 per cent of Black and 35 per cent of Hispanic children ever live in an extended family, compared with 20 per cent of White children. Further, 47 per cent of children whose parents did not finish high school spend time in an extended family, relative to 17 per cent of children whose parents earned a bachelor's degree or higher. Models of predictors show that transitions into extended families are largely a response to social and economic needs. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 235-251 Issue: 2 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1468476 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1468476 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:235-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel J. Hruschka Author-X-Name-First: Daniel J. Author-X-Name-Last: Hruschka Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Author-Name: Joseph Hackman Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Hackman Author-Name: Alexandria Drake Author-X-Name-First: Alexandria Author-X-Name-Last: Drake Title: Worldwide fertility declines do not rely on stopping at ideal parities Abstract: A key demographic hypothesis has been that fertility declines rely on stopping at target parities, but emerging evidence suggests that women frequently reduce fertility without specific numeric targets. To assess the relative importance of these two paths to fertility decline, we develop a novel mixture model to estimate: (1) the proportion of women who stop at a target parity; and (2) mean completed fertility among those who do not. Applied to Demographic and Health Survey data from women aged 45–49 in 84 low- and middle-income countries, and to United States Census cohorts, the model shows considerable variation in the proportion stopping at specific parities (1–84 per cent). The estimates also show that declines in completed fertility are largely attributable to women who do not stop at target parities, suggesting that stopping at ideal parities may be less important than parity-independent decisions for a wide range of fertility transitions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-17 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1513164 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1513164 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:1-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ameed Saabneh Author-X-Name-First: Ameed Author-X-Name-Last: Saabneh Title: Displaced and segregated: The socio-economic status of the second generation of internally displaced Palestinians in Israel Abstract: This study investigates the effects of displacement on the socio-economic status of second-generation Palestinian internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Israel. The results show that members of this group do not differ from non-displaced Palestinians in their educational or occupational attainment, but that displaced households experience higher rates of poverty and poorer housing conditions than non-displaced households. I find that the relationship between displacement and the prime indicators of social mobility—education and jobs—was weakened by three factors: extreme spatial segregation between Palestinians and Jews, the concentration of disadvantage among Palestinian IDPs within the host communities, which were Palestinian spaces, and a high level of dependence on resources concentrated in Jewish spaces among all Palestinians, not just IDPs. These three conditions, however, do not eliminate gaps in assets and land ownership between IDPs and non-displaced Palestinians, which, I argue, contribute to higher poverty rates among displaced households. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 19-35 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1544658 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1544658 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:19-35 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal Author-X-Name-First: Øystein Author-X-Name-Last: Kravdal Author-Name: Emily Grundy Author-X-Name-First: Emily Author-X-Name-Last: Grundy Title: Children’s age at parental divorce and depression in early and mid-adulthood Abstract: This study aimed to assess whether children’s age at their parents’ divorce is associated with depression in early and mid-adulthood, as indicated by medication purchase. A sibling comparison method was used to control for unobserved factors shared between siblings. The data were extracted from the Norwegian Population Register and Norwegian Prescription Database and included about 181,000 individuals aged 20–44 who had experienced parental divorce and 636,000 who had not. Controlling for age in 2004, sex, and birth order, children who were aged 15–19 when their parents divorced were 12 per cent less likely to purchase antidepressants as adults in 2004–08 than those experiencing the divorce aged 0–4. The corresponding reduction for those aged 20+ at the time of divorce was 19 per cent. However, the association between age at parental divorce and antidepressant purchases was only evident among women and those whose mothers had low education. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 37-56 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1549747 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1549747 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:37-56 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ridhi Kashyap Author-X-Name-First: Ridhi Author-X-Name-Last: Kashyap Title: Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality? Abstract: I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others. In South Korea, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, mortality reductions favouring girls accompanied increases in prenatal sex selection. In India, excess female mortality was much higher and largely stable as prenatal sex selection emerged, but slight reductions were seen in the 2000s. In China, although absolute measures showed reductions, relative excess female mortality persisted as prenatal sex selection increased. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 57-78 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1442583 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1442583 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:57-78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ingrid K. van Dijk Author-X-Name-First: Ingrid K. Author-X-Name-Last: van Dijk Title: Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review Abstract: Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as ‘mortality clustering’. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 79-99 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1448434 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1448434 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:79-99 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guido Alfani Author-X-Name-First: Guido Author-X-Name-Last: Alfani Author-Name: Marco Bonetti Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Bonetti Title: A survival analysis of the last great European plagues: The case of Nonantola (Northern Italy) in 1630 Abstract: This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40–60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical–demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 101-118 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1457794 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1457794 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:101-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini Author-X-Name-First: Ugofilippo Author-X-Name-Last: Basellini Author-Name: Carlo Giovanni Camarda Author-X-Name-First: Carlo Giovanni Author-X-Name-Last: Camarda Title: Modelling and forecasting adult age-at-death distributions Abstract: Age-at-death distributions provide an informative description of the mortality pattern of a population but have generally been neglected for modelling and forecasting mortality. In this paper, we use the distribution of deaths to model and forecast adult mortality. Specifically, we introduce a relational model that relates a fixed ‘standard’ to a series of observed distributions by a transformation of the age axis. The proposed Segmented Transformation Age-at-death Distributions (STAD) model is parsimonious and efficient: using only three parameters, it captures and disentangles mortality developments in terms of shifting and compression dynamics. Additionally, mortality forecasts can be derived from parameter extrapolation using time-series models. We illustrate our method and compare it with the Lee–Carter model and variants for females in four high-longevity countries. We show that the STAD fits the observed mortality pattern very well, and that its forecasts are more accurate and optimistic than the Lee–Carter variants. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 119-138 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1545918 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1545918 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:119-138 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jason M. Fletcher Author-X-Name-First: Jason M. Author-X-Name-Last: Fletcher Title: Environmental bottlenecks in children’s genetic potential for adult socio-economic attainments: Evidence from a health shock Abstract: This paper explores gene–environment interactions—interactions between family environments and children’s genetic predispositions—in determining educational attainment. The central question is whether poor childhood family environments reduce children’s ability to leverage their genetic gifts to achieve high levels of educational attainment—are there important ‘bottlenecks’ for poor children? The multigenerational information and genetic data contained in the United States’ Health and Retirement Study are used to separate two mechanisms for intergenerational transmission of socio-economic status: genetic endowments and family environments. Using parental in utero exposure to the 1918–19 influenza pandemic as a source of quasi-experimental variation in family environments (that did not affect children’s genetic endowments), I estimate interactions between parental investments and children’s genetic potential. The main finding suggests that girls with high genetic potential whose fathers were exposed to influenza face reduced educational attainments—a gene–environment interaction—but there is no similar effect for boys. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 139-148 Issue: 1 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1498533 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1498533 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:1:p:139-148 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Wilmoth Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Wilmoth Author-Name: Sarah Zureick Author-X-Name-First: Sarah Author-X-Name-Last: Zureick Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Author-Name: Mie Inoue Author-X-Name-First: Mie Author-X-Name-Last: Inoue Author-Name: Cheryl Sawyer Author-X-Name-First: Cheryl Author-X-Name-Last: Sawyer Title: A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation Abstract: Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale–Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-28 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.611411 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.611411 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:1-28 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eric Kaufmann Author-X-Name-First: Eric Author-X-Name-Last: Kaufmann Author-Name: Anne Goujon Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Goujon Author-Name: Vegard Skirbekk Author-X-Name-First: Vegard Author-X-Name-Last: Skirbekk Title: American political affiliation, 2003–43: A cohort component projection Abstract: The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2–3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 53-67 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.628047 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.628047 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:53-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joshua Goldstein Author-X-Name-First: Joshua Author-X-Name-Last: Goldstein Author-Name: Thomas Cassidy Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Cassidy Title: How slowing senescence translates into longer life expectancy Abstract: Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result is analogous to Keyfitz's ‘entropy’ relationship for changing the level of mortality. Interestingly, the influence of the shape of the baseline schedule on the effect of senescence changes is the complement of that found for level changes. We also provide a generalized formulation that mixes level and slope effects. We illustrate the applicability of these models using recent mortality decline in Japan and the problem of period to cohort translation. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 29-37 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.635215 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.635215 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:29-37 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bojuan Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Bojuan Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Title: A modified Lee–Carter model for analysing short-base-period data Abstract: This paper introduces a new modified Lee–Carter model for analysing short-base-period mortality data, for which the original Lee–Carter model produces severely fluctuating predicted age-specific mortality. Approximating the unknown parameters in the modified model by linearized cubic splines and other additive functions, the model can be simplified into a logistic regression when fitted to binomial data. The expected death rate estimated from the modified model is smooth, not only over ages but also over years. The analysis of mortality data in China (2000–08) demonstrates the advantages of the new model over existing models. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 39-52 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.636839 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.636839 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:39-52 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marika Jalovaara Author-X-Name-First: Marika Author-X-Name-Last: Jalovaara Title: Socio-economic resources and first-union formation in Finland, cohorts born 1969–81 Abstract: Social scientists generally agree that better individual economic prospects enhance the probability of marriage for men, whereas there are conflicting views with regard to women. Moreover, it is argued that cohabitation does not require as strong an economic foundation as marriage. The aim of this study, which was based on Finnish register data, was to find out how the socio-economic resources of young adults affect first-union formation, and whether the effects vary by sex or union type. The results show that high education, labour-force participation, and high income seem to promote union formation. The findings are similar for women and men, which is plausible given the comparatively gender-egalitarian societal context. Similar factors encourage entry into both union types, although the union-promoting effects of university-level education and stable employment are stronger in the marriage models, suggesting that long-term prospects are more important when marriage is contemplated. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 69-85 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.641720 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.641720 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:69-85 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Rindfuss Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Rindfuss Author-Name: Martin Piotrowski Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Piotrowski Author-Name: Barbara Entwisle Author-X-Name-First: Barbara Author-X-Name-Last: Entwisle Author-Name: Jeffrey Edmeades Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey Author-X-Name-Last: Edmeades Author-Name: Katherine Faust Author-X-Name-First: Katherine Author-X-Name-Last: Faust Title: Migrant remittances and the web of family obligations: Ongoing support among spatially extended kin in North-east Thailand, 1984–94 Abstract: Exchanges of money, goods, and assistance among family/kin members are influenced by the intertwined lives of individuals and their family/kin. As people pass through the young adulthood years, acquiring obligations as spouses and parents, and migrating in search of economic opportunities, tensions can arise over existing obligations. Using rich longitudinal data from Northeast Thailand, we examined the role of family networks (origin and destination) on migrants’ exchanges with family/kin. Our approach overcame many shortcomings of earlier studies, allowing us to ‘see’ the family social network arrayed in a broader network. We show that intra-family exchanges are influenced by marital status, the presence of children, having parents in the origin household, and having siblings depart from it. The results are stable across sensitivity tests that systematically include or exclude various familial links. In addition, reports provided by origin households on migrant remittances are consistent with reports from migrants themselves. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 87-104 Issue: 1 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2011.644429 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2011.644429 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:1:p:87-104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco C. Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Author-Name: Osea Giuntella Author-X-Name-First: Osea Author-X-Name-Last: Giuntella Author-Name: Luca Stella Author-X-Name-First: Luca Author-X-Name-Last: Stella Title: Does broadband Internet affect fertility? Abstract: The spread of high-speed (broadband) Internet epitomizes the digital revolution. Using German panel data, we test whether the availability of broadband influences fertility choices in a low-fertility setting well known for the difficulty in combining work and family life. We exploit a strategy devised by Falck and colleagues to obtain causal estimates of the impact of broadband on fertility. We find positive effects of broadband availability on the fertility of highly educated women aged 25–45. We further confirm this result using county-level data on total fertility. We show that broadband access significantly increases the share of women reporting home- or part-time working. Furthermore, we find positive effects on time spent with children and overall life satisfaction. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that access to broadband allows highly educated women, but not the less educated, to reconcile career and motherhood, which may promote a ‘digital divide’ in fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 297-316 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1584327 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1584327 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:297-316 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: L. Daniel Staetsky Author-X-Name-First: L. Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Staetsky Title: Stalling fertility decline of Israeli Muslims and the demographic transition theory Abstract: The total fertility of Muslims in Israel declined from a level of nearly ten children per woman in the mid-1960s to about 4.5 children per woman in the mid-1980s. It then remained close to 4.5 children per woman for nearly 20 years. The reasons for this long stall in the fertility decline are not understood. This paper explores the roles of marriage patterns and marital fertility in the development of the stall in Muslim fertility decline in Israel from 1986 to 2003. The results show that the fertility decline among Muslims in Israel stalled owing to abrupt discontinuations of declines in both the proportion married and marital fertility. The former is explained by the relaxation of a marriage squeeze that had resulted from past fluctuations in fertility. These findings have implications for debates on the determinants of fertility stalls and for demographic transition theory. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 317-333 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1622765 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1622765 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:317-333 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Emma Zang Author-X-Name-First: Emma Author-X-Name-Last: Zang Title: Women’s educational attainment and fertility among Generation X in the United States Abstract: This study examines whether the fertility of college-educated women is increasing more quickly across cohorts in Generation X than the fertility of their less educated counterparts. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth in the United States, this study examines the educational differentials in fertility levels and timing across four five-year cohorts of ‘Generation Xers’. Results reveal that total fertility rates (TFRs) are increasing across cohorts for all educational groups and the increase is greatest for college-educated women. The increase in cohort TFR among college-educated women is being primarily driven by an increasing proportion of those with two children transitioning to a third birth. The findings in this paper contribute to the current debate on whether there has been a shift in fertility behaviours among college-educated Generation Xers compared with their Baby Boomer counterparts. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 335-351 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1658799 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1658799 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:335-351 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jessica Polos Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Polos Author-Name: Jason Fletcher Author-X-Name-First: Jason Author-X-Name-Last: Fletcher Title: Caesarean section and children’s health: A quasi-experimental design Abstract: The prevalence of inflammatory child health conditions—such as asthma, eczema, and food allergy—and their associated costs have increased rapidly over the last 30 years. While environmental factors likely underpin these increases, recent studies explain only a fraction of the trend and rely on associational methods. Caesarean (or C-) section rates increased dramatically in the period of interest, and this method of delivery is an understudied environmental factor linked to child health outcomes via the gut microbiome. We fuse 22 years of birth cohort data from the United States National Surveys of Children’s Health with C-section rates from the National Vital Statistics System generated for subgroups based on state, sex, race, Hispanic origin, and birth year. Then, we model the effects of C-section on rates of asthma, eczema, and food allergy using a quasi-experimental fixed effects design. We find that C-section significantly predicts food allergy, with qualitatively significant implications. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 353-368 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1624810 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1624810 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:353-368 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wendy Sigle Author-X-Name-First: Wendy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigle Author-Name: Alice Goisis Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Goisis Title: Mind the gap: The health advantages that accompany parental marriage vary by maternal nativity Abstract: Using data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), we examine whether and how the health benefits of having two biological parents in a continuous marital relationship vary by maternal nativity and ethnicity, comparing UK-born White mothers with: (1) White mothers born in wealthy countries; (2) ethnic minority mothers from South Asia; and (3) ethnic minority mothers born in Africa. Making novel use of classification and regression tree (CART) methods, we examine whether marital status is a uniform marker of economic advantage or better health-related behaviours across the four maternal nativity and ethnic groups. The findings, which indicate that the health-related advantages associated with parental marriage are not uniform across the four nativity and ethnic groups, have implications for future research on family gaps in well-being and the socio-economic determinants of health. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 369-386 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1654613 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1654613 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:369-386 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Catalina Torres Author-X-Name-First: Catalina Author-X-Name-Last: Torres Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Author-Name: Jim Oeppen Author-X-Name-First: Jim Author-X-Name-Last: Oeppen Title: The contribution of urbanization to changes in life expectancy in Scotland, 1861–1910 Abstract: During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, urban populations in Europe and North America continued to be afflicted by very high mortality as rapid urbanization and industrialization processes got underway. Here we measure the effect of population redistribution from (low-mortality) rural to (high-mortality) urban areas on changes in Scottish life expectancy at birth from 1861 to 1910. Using vital registration data for that period, we apply a new decomposition method that decomposes changes in life expectancy into the contributions of two main components: (1) changes in mortality; and (2) compositional changes in the population. We find that, besides an urban penalty (higher mortality in urban areas), an urbanization penalty (negative effect of population redistribution to urban areas on survival) existed in Scotland during the study period. In the absence of the urbanization penalty, Scottish life expectancy at birth could have attained higher values by the beginning of the twentieth century. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 387-404 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1549746 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1549746 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:387-404 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michel Guillot Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot Author-Name: Collin F. Payne Author-X-Name-First: Collin F. Author-X-Name-Last: Payne Title: Tracking progress in mean longevity: The Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE) approach Abstract: Cohort life expectancy is an important but rarely used indicator of mean longevity. In this paper, we show that there are specific advantages in lagging this indicator in time by its own value, an approach termed Lagged Cohort Life Expectancy (LCLE). We discuss the usefulness of LCLE as an indicator for tracking progress in mean longevity and introduce a new interpretation of LCLE as a reference age separating ‘early’ deaths from ‘late’ deaths, or, equivalently, as the age above which individuals in a population can be considered ‘above-average’ survivors. Using data from 15 countries in the Human Mortality Database, we show that current LCLE can be estimated with a relatively high degree of certainty, at least in these low-mortality populations. Results shed new light on levels and trends in mean longevity in these populations. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 405-421 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1618480 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1618480 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:405-421 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stuart Gietel-Basten Author-X-Name-First: Stuart Author-X-Name-Last: Gietel-Basten Author-Name: Georgia Verropoulou Author-X-Name-First: Georgia Author-X-Name-Last: Verropoulou Title: Maternity migration and the recent normalization of the sex ratio at birth in Hong Kong Abstract: Hong Kong is characterized by very low fertility. However, over a period from 2000 to 2015, both the total number of births and the sex ratio at birth (SRB) increased and then declined dramatically. We analysed the increases in a 2013 paper in this journal, where we largely ascribed them to a rapid growth in the number of ‘transient’ mothers from Mainland China disproportionately giving birth to boys in the territory. In 2012, policies were implemented to halt this ‘maternity migration’. Here, we explore the impact of these policies, both on births and the SRB in Hong Kong. We conclude that the rises and falls in births and SRBs in Hong Kong can, indeed, be broadly ascribed to the reproductive behaviour of transient Mainland mothers. However, the role of the Hong Kong government’s policy interventions is much less clearly defined. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 423-438 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1559944 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1559944 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:423-438 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christian Dudel Author-X-Name-First: Christian Author-X-Name-Last: Dudel Author-Name: Sebastian Klüsener Author-X-Name-First: Sebastian Author-X-Name-Last: Klüsener Title: Estimating men’s fertility from vital registration data with missing values Abstract: Comparative perspectives on men’s fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men’s age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age. To assess the performance of these two methods, we conduct simulations that mimic vital registration data for Sweden, the United States, Spain, and Estonia. In these simulations, we vary the overall proportion and the age selectivity of missing values. We find that the conditional approach outperforms the unconditional approach in the majority of simulations and therefore should be generally preferred. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 439-449 Issue: 3 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1481992 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1481992 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:3:p:439-449 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Fjalar Finnäs Author-X-Name-First: Fjalar Author-X-Name-Last: Finnäs Author-Name: Mikael Rostila Author-X-Name-First: Mikael Author-X-Name-Last: Rostila Author-Name: Jan Saarela Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Saarela Title: Divorce and parity progression following the death of a child: A register-based study from Finland Abstract: Most studies that have examined whether a child’s death influences parental relationship stability have used small-scale data sets and their results are inconclusive. A likely reason is that child loss affects not only the risk of parental separation, but also the risk of having another child. Hence parity progression and separation must be treated as two competing events in relation to child loss. The analysis in this paper used Finnish register data from 1971 to 2003, covering over 100,000 married couples whose durations of both first marriage and parenthood could be observed. We ran parity-specific Cox regressions in which process time started from the birth of each additional child. All marriages included women of childbearing age, none of whom had experienced any child death on entering the analysis. We find that child loss only modestly influences the divorce risk, whereas its effect on the risk of parity progression is considerable. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 41-51 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1337918 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1337918 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:41-51 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Irma T. Elo Author-X-Name-First: Irma T. Author-X-Name-Last: Elo Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen Author-X-Name-First: Pekka Author-X-Name-Last: Martikainen Author-Name: Mikko Aaltonen Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Aaltonen Title: Children’s educational attainment, occupation, and income and their parents’ mortality Abstract: Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970–2007. Higher levels of children's education are associated with 30–36 per cent lower parental mortality at ages 50–75, controlling for parents' education, occupation, and income. This association is fully mediated by children's occupation and income, except for cancer mortality. Having at least one child educated in healthcare is associated with 11–16 per cent lower all-cause mortality at ages 50–75, an association that is largely driven by mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Children's higher white-collar occupation and higher income is associated with 39–46 per cent lower mortality in the fully adjusted models. At ages 75+, these associations are much smaller overall and children's schooling remains more strongly associated with mortality than children's occupation or income. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 53-73 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1367413 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1367413 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:53-73 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Catriona A. Towriss Author-X-Name-First: Catriona A. Author-X-Name-Last: Towriss Author-Name: Ian M. Timæus Author-X-Name-First: Ian M. Author-X-Name-Last: Timæus Title: Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa Abstract: We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 75-90 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1370121 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1370121 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:75-90 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Júlia Mikolai Author-X-Name-First: Júlia Author-X-Name-Last: Mikolai Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Title: Short- and long-term effects of divorce and separation on housing tenure in England and Wales Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of marital and non-marital separation on individuals’ housing tenure in England and Wales. We apply competing risks event history models to data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to analyse the risk of a residential move to different tenure types, for single, married, cohabiting, and separated men and women. Separated individuals are more likely to move and experience a tenure change than those who are single or in a relationship. Among separated people, private renting is the most common outcome of a move; however, women are also likely to move to social renting, whereas men tend to move to homeownership. This pattern persists when we account for time since separation and order of move, indicating a potential long-term effect of separation on housing tenure. This long-term effect is especially pertinent to separated women who cannot afford homeownership. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 17-39 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1391955 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1391955 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:17-39 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David J. Sharrow Author-X-Name-First: David J. Author-X-Name-Last: Sharrow Author-Name: Jessica Godwin Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Godwin Author-Name: Yanjun He Author-X-Name-First: Yanjun Author-X-Name-Last: He Author-Name: Samuel J. Clark Author-X-Name-First: Samuel J. Author-X-Name-Last: Clark Author-Name: Adrian E. Raftery Author-X-Name-First: Adrian E. Author-X-Name-Last: Raftery Title: Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics Abstract: In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-15 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1401654 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1401654 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:1-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Deniz D. Karaman Örsal Author-X-Name-First: Deniz D. Author-X-Name-Last: Karaman Örsal Author-Name: Joshua R. Goldstein Author-X-Name-First: Joshua R. Author-X-Name-Last: Goldstein Title: The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 109-121 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1404624 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1404624 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:109-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anne Løkke Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Løkke Title: Mrs Stone and Dr Smellie: British eighteenth-century birth attendance and long-run levels and trends in maternal mortality discussed in a north European context Abstract: This is a book review turned research paper. The aim is to estimate the differences in the maternal mortality rate (MMR) between untrained midwives, expert midwives, and the famous obstetrician Dr Smellie in eighteenth-century Britain. The paper shows that the birth attendance practices of the expert midwife Mrs Stone and of Dr Smellie were very similar, though Stone used her hands whereas Smellie used forceps. Both applied the same invasive techniques to successfully deliver women with similar fatal complications, techniques that untrained midwives and most surgeons of the time could not perform. However, the same procedures, if used for normal births, would have increased the MMR. So, the key to the low MMR of both was that they kept interventions away from the majority of births that were normal. The paper quantifies the likely MMR for a ‘Stone and Smellie style’ birth attendance and concludes that the wider dissemination of their techniques can explain the decline in the British MMR. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 123-136 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1415036 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1415036 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:123-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mats Lillehagen Author-X-Name-First: Mats Author-X-Name-Last: Lillehagen Author-Name: Torkild Hovde Lyngstad Author-X-Name-First: Torkild Hovde Author-X-Name-Last: Lyngstad Title: Immigrant mothers’ preferences for children’s sexes: A register-based study of fertility behaviour in Norway Abstract: Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants’ preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitudinal register data from Norway, a country with a recent immigration history, we estimate hazards regression models of third birth risks by the sex composition of the first two children. A central question in the extant literature is whether the sex preferences of immigrant mothers match those observed in their country of origin, or if cultural adaption to local conditions is more important. Our analyses indicate that the sex preferences of immigrants generally match those previously documented for their native population, especially in the case of son preferences. The pattern of sex preferences is unmodified by the mother’s exposure to the host society. In sum, our evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 91-107 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1421254 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1421254 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:91-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Doreen Castle: 6 September 1924–3 January 2018 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 137-137 Issue: 1 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1436914 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1436914 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:1:p:137-137 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Govert E. Bijwaard Author-X-Name-First: Govert E. Author-X-Name-Last: Bijwaard Author-Name: Per Tynelius Author-X-Name-First: Per Author-X-Name-Last: Tynelius Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: Education, cognitive ability, and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach Abstract: Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 217-232 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1493135 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1493135 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:217-232 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Author-Name: Tina Hannemann Author-X-Name-First: Tina Author-X-Name-Last: Hannemann Title: Mixed marriage among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: Analysis of longitudinal data with missing information Abstract: This study investigates the formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. We apply event history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbean people hold an intermediate position. Second, the descendants of immigrants have lower endogamous and higher exogamous marriage rates than their parents; however, for some ethnic groups, particularly South Asians, the differences across generations are small, suggesting that changes in marriage patterns have been slower than expected. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-196 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1493136 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1493136 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:179-196 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Spoorenberg Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Spoorenberg Title: Sixty years of change in Tibetan fertility: An assessment Abstract: Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on ‘best-guess’ estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s. As noted in several existing studies, Tibetan fertility in China then declined swiftly from the early 1980s onwards and has now reached values close to replacement level. Focusing on the 1950–70 period, I examine factors that contributed to shaping the Tibetan fertility increase in more detail. This confirms that changes in nuptiality and disease-related infertility both played a role in pushing up fertility rates among Tibetan women in China. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 277-285 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1499953 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1499953 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:277-285 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Monica J. Grant Author-X-Name-First: Monica J. Author-X-Name-Last: Grant Author-Name: Isabel Pike Author-X-Name-First: Isabel Author-X-Name-Last: Pike Title: Divorce, living arrangements, and material well-being during the transition to adulthood in rural Malawi Abstract: In this paper, we use longitudinal data to investigate how parental death and divorce influence young women’s own experience of divorce in Malawi, a setting where women marry relatively early and unions are fragile. We find that maternal death and parental divorce are positively associated with divorce for young women but, after controlling for socio-demographic and marital characteristics, only the association with maternal death remains statistically significant. Maternal and paternal death are both strongly associated with women’s post-divorce living arrangements, which in turn affects their material well-being. This finding suggests that divorcing at a young age shapes the subsequent life chances of women; although some women return to their parental home and may have the opportunity to reset the transition to adulthood, other women begin their 20s as head of their own household and with considerable material disadvantage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 261-275 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1545919 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1545919 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:261-275 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Szreter Author-X-Name-First: Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Szreter Title: Scotland’s Populations from the 1850s to Today Journal: Population Studies Pages: 287-290 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1549377 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1549377 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:287-290 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Susannah E. Gibbs Author-X-Name-First: Susannah E. Author-X-Name-Last: Gibbs Author-Name: Yasamin Kusunoki Author-X-Name-First: Yasamin Author-X-Name-Last: Kusunoki Author-Name: Elizabeth Colantuoni Author-X-Name-First: Elizabeth Author-X-Name-Last: Colantuoni Author-Name: Caroline Moreau Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Moreau Title: Sexual activity and weekly contraceptive use among young adult women in Michigan Abstract: Past studies on the influence of sexual activity on contraceptive behaviours are inconclusive, relying heavily on cross-sectional data. We used a population-based longitudinal sample of young women in Michigan to evaluate weekly associations between sexual activity and contraceptive use at three levels of measurement: comparing between women, among individual women’s partnerships, and from week to week within partnerships. We used multinomial logistic regression accounting for correlations within partnerships and women. Relative to use of least effective methods, weekly sexual activity was significantly associated with increased use of condoms, pills, and highly effective methods. For pills and highly effective methods, partnership-, woman-, and week-level effects were similar. For condoms, there was no significant woman-level effect. Evidence of immediate effects of sexual activity on contraceptive use highlights the importance of longitudinal data. These dynamics may be diluted or missed altogether when relying on cross-sectional data approaches that compare groups of individuals. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 233-245 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1552985 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1552985 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:233-245 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Philip Kreager Author-X-Name-First: Philip Author-X-Name-Last: Kreager Title: Demographic Change and Long-Run Development Journal: Population Studies Pages: 290-291 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1568700 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1568700 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:290-291 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tak Wing Chan Author-X-Name-First: Tak Wing Author-X-Name-Last: Chan Author-Name: Morag Henderson Author-X-Name-First: Morag Author-X-Name-Last: Henderson Author-Name: Rachel Stuchbury Author-X-Name-First: Rachel Author-X-Name-Last: Stuchbury Title: Family size and educational attainment in England and Wales Abstract: In this paper, we use linked census data from England and Wales to investigate whether having a large number of siblings leads to lower educational attainment. There is a large literature suggesting that with large sibship size, parental resources will be diluted and this, in turn, will lead to lower educational attainment. Using twin births and the sex composition of the sibling group as instrumental variables, we find that the evidence of a family size effect on educational attainment is rather uncertain. Similar results are obtained when we use occupational attainment as the dependent variable. We also demonstrate the confounding of birth order and family size effects, and show that an adjusted birth order index proposed by Booth and Kee provides an effective solution to this estimation problem. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 165-178 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1577479 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1577479 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:165-178 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Bongaarts Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Bongaarts Author-Name: Ann K. Blanc Author-X-Name-First: Ann K. Author-X-Name-Last: Blanc Author-Name: Katharine J. McCarthy Author-X-Name-First: Katharine J. Author-X-Name-Last: McCarthy Title: The links between women’s employment and children at home: Variations in low- and middle-income countries by world region Abstract: As fertility declines in low- and middle-income countries, the time women devote to childbearing and rearing may also be reduced. This shift has been described as one of the positive consequences of the demographic transition, as it opens opportunities for women to pursue educational and employment opportunities that were previously constrained by the demands of bearing and raising children. We estimate the numbers of children residing at home (with their mother) for women in 58 countries in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. We then examine the association between women’s employment and having children at home. Finally, we assess trends over recent decades in the relationship between employment and childbearing, and differences in this relationship by mother’s occupation. We find a negative association between women’s employment and having children at home; this association varies substantially by world region, age of child, and mother’s occupation. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 149-163 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1581896 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1581896 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:149-163 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Giulia Ferrari Author-X-Name-First: Giulia Author-X-Name-Last: Ferrari Author-Name: Ross Macmillan Author-X-Name-First: Ross Author-X-Name-Last: Macmillan Title: Until work do us part: Labour migration and occupational stratification in non-cohabiting marriage Abstract: While recent decades have seen considerable research on cohabitation without marriage, the study of marriage without cohabitation has not fared as well. Prior work on the latter has emphasized the importance of occupational stratification, but ignored the social context around occupation, particularly regarding labour mobility and economic development. In this paper, we outline the significance of contemporary labour mobility and concomitant occupational stratification for the risk of non-cohabiting marriage, and use data from the IPUMS–International project to provide a cross-national accounting of non-cohabiting marriage. We focus on two issues: first, how does prevalence vary across countries, across time, and with respect to economic development? Second, how do the core dynamics of labour mobility—including migration, occupational status, and economic development—influence the probability of non-cohabiting marriage? Results indicate broad cross-national differences in prevalence, increasing risk over time, and a pattern of accumulating risk associated with multifaceted social disadvantage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 197-216 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1583359 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1583359 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:197-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Smallwood Author-X-Name-First: Steve Author-X-Name-Last: Smallwood Title: Why Demography Matters; Demography: A Very Short Introduction Journal: Population Studies Pages: 291-294 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1601360 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1601360 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:291-294 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Xiana Bueno Author-X-Name-First: Xiana Author-X-Name-Last: Bueno Author-Name: Mary C. Brinton Author-X-Name-First: Mary C. Author-X-Name-Last: Brinton Title: Gender egalitarianism, perceived economic insecurity, and fertility intentions in Spain: A qualitative analysis Abstract: Economic uncertainty contributes to low fertility in many European countries. On the other hand, greater gender equality may positively influence fertility. This paper examines how these two forces interact in Spain. We use in-depth interviews to analyse fertility decision-making among young and highly educated partnered adults living in urban areas. Highly gender-egalitarian interviewees are less likely to perceive economic insecurity as an obstacle to proceeding to a next birth than less egalitarian interviewees. But there is not necessarily a difference in these two groups’ overall fertility intentions, as highly egalitarian interviewees’ greater valuation of stable employment for both partners requires institutional and policy support for dual-earner couples’ childrearing. When we look only at interviewees who express economic insecurity, somewhat higher fertility intentions are expressed by those holding less gender-egalitarian attitudes. Our results underline the complexity of the interrelationships between economic insecurity, gender egalitarianism, and fertility intentions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 247-260 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1604979 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1604979 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:247-260 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Thanks to reviewers of papers submitted 2017-2018 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 295-296 Issue: 2 Volume: 73 Year: 2019 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1609758 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1609758 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:73:y:2019:i:2:p:295-296 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Murphy Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Murphy Author-Name: Mariachiara Di Cesare Author-X-Name-First: Mariachiara Author-X-Name-Last: Di Cesare Title: Use of an age-period-cohort model to reveal the impact of cigarette smoking on trends in Twentieth-century adult cohort mortality in England and Wales Abstract: We use an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the contribution of smoking-related mortality to cohort changes in adult mortality in Britain since 1950. We show that lung cancer and overall mortality can be satisfactorily modelled using cohort relative risk and a fixed age pattern. The results of the model suggest that smoking by itself can account for a substantial fraction of change in cohort mortality for those born around the first half of the twentieth century. In particular, smoking provides an explanation for the higher-than-average improvement in the mortality of both males and females born around 1930. Our confidence in the correctness of the results of the models is strengthened by the fact that they are very similar to those of the Peto–Lopez and Preston–Glei–Wilmoth models that estimate the contribution of smoking-related to overall mortality. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 259-277 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.678881 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.678881 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:259-277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Monica Grant Author-X-Name-First: Monica Author-X-Name-Last: Grant Author-Name: Sara Yeatman Author-X-Name-First: Sara Author-X-Name-Last: Yeatman Title: The relationship between orphanhood and child fostering in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990s–2000s Abstract: In countries most afflicted by HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, orphanhood has increased dramatically, but the potential consequences of the increase have been mitigated by the ability of households to absorb orphans. This paper examines what the rising levels of orphanhood mean for the common practice of non-orphan child fostering in regions of high and low HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa, which has a long history of child fostering. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 135 regions within 14 sub-Saharan countries that undertake HIV testing and have had at least two surveys, we examine changes in fostering patterns. In most regions, we find a more accommodating relationship between orphan and non-orphan fostering: communities are able to absorb the demand for both orphans and non-orphans. Where HIV prevalence exceeds 10 per cent there is some evidence that the need to care for orphans is beginning to reduce opportunities for non-orphan fostering. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 279-295 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.681682 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.681682 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:279-295 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: S. Bermúdez Author-X-Name-First: S. Author-X-Name-Last: Bermúdez Author-Name: R. Blanquero Author-X-Name-First: R. Author-X-Name-Last: Blanquero Author-Name: J. A. Hernández Author-X-Name-First: J. A. Author-X-Name-Last: Hernández Author-Name: J. Planelles Author-X-Name-First: J. Author-X-Name-Last: Planelles Title: A new parametric model for fitting fertility curves Abstract: What is the optimum way of describing the age-specific fertility pattern by mathematical functions? We propose a parametric fitting model, based on a mixture of Weibull functions, which performs well for countries where the fertility curve shows a non-traditional pattern. We also consider a simplified version of this model with a reduced number of parameters that can be applied to fit fertility curves in countries where the fertility pattern exhibits a classical shape. To test the new model, fertility curves for a range of countries and years are fitted empirically. The results show that both versions of the new model outperform existing procedures in most cases. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 297-310 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.695802 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.695802 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:297-310 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Abhishek Singh Author-X-Name-First: Abhishek Author-X-Name-Last: Singh Author-Name: Satvika Chalasani Author-X-Name-First: Satvika Author-X-Name-Last: Chalasani Author-Name: Michael Koenig Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Koenig Author-Name: Bidhubhusan Mahapatra Author-X-Name-First: Bidhubhusan Author-X-Name-Last: Mahapatra Title: The consequences of unintended births for maternal and child health in India Abstract: Data from the Indian National Family Health Survey, 2005–06 were used to explore how pregnancy intention at the time of conception influences a variety of maternal and child health and health care outcomes. Results indicate that mistimed children are more likely than wanted children to be delivered without a skilled attendant present (OR = 1.3), to not receive all recommended vaccinations (OR = 1.4), and to die during the neonatal and postneonatal periods (OR = 1.8 and 2.6, respectively). Unwanted children are more likely than wanted children to not receive all recommended vaccinations (OR = 2.2), to be stunted (OR = 1.3), and to die during the neonatal, postneonatal, and early childhood periods (OR = 2.2, 3.6, and 5.9, respectively). Given the high levels of unintended fertility in India (21 per cent of all births), these are striking findings that underscore the importance of investments in family planning. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 223-239 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.697568 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.697568 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:223-239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Máire Ní Bhrolcháin Author-X-Name-First: Máire Author-X-Name-Last: Ní Bhrolcháin Author-Name: Éva Beaujouan Author-X-Name-First: Éva Author-X-Name-Last: Beaujouan Title: Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment Abstract: The rise in educational enrolment is often cited as a possible cause of the trend to later childbearing in developed societies but direct evidence of its contribution to the aggregate change in fertility tempo is scarce. We show that rising enrolment, resulting in later ages at the end of education, accounts for a substantial part of the upward shift in the mean age at first birth in the 1980s and 1990s in Britain and in France. The postponement of first birth over that period has two components: a longer average period of enrolment and a post-enrolment component that is also related to educational level. The relationship between rising educational participation and the move to later fertility timing is almost certainly causal. Our findings therefore suggest that fertility tempo change is rooted in macro-economic and structural forces rather than in the cultural domain. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 311-327 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.697569 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.697569 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:311-327 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Moultrie Author-X-Name-First: Tom Author-X-Name-Last: Moultrie Author-Name: Takudzwa Sayi Author-X-Name-First: Takudzwa Author-X-Name-Last: Sayi Author-Name: Ian Timæus Author-X-Name-First: Ian Author-X-Name-Last: Timæus Title: Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition? Abstract: We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass–Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. After allowing for time trends in birth-interval length, the lengthening of birth intervals in almost every country varies little by women's age or parity. Moreover, in several countries, birth intervals are now too long to be explicable by birth spacing contingent on the age of women's youngest child. Rather, women are postponing births for other reasons. These findings offer empirical support for the idea that the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa is following a different pattern from that observed elsewhere. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 241-258 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.701660 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.701660 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:241-258 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arland Thornton Author-X-Name-First: Arland Author-X-Name-Last: Thornton Author-Name: Dirgha Ghimire Author-X-Name-First: Dirgha Author-X-Name-Last: Ghimire Author-Name: Colter Mitchell Author-X-Name-First: Colter Author-X-Name-Last: Mitchell Title: The measurement and prevalence of an ideational model of family and economic development in Nepal Abstract: Developmental idealism (DI) is a system of beliefs and values that endorses modern societies and families and sees them as occurring together, with modern families as causes and consequences of societal development. This study was motivated by the belief that the population of Nepal has absorbed these ideas and that the ideas affect their family behaviour. We use data collected in Nepal in 2003 to show that Nepalis discuss ideas about development and its relationship to family life and that DI has been widely accepted. It is related in predictable ways to education, paid employment, rural–urban residence, and mass media exposure. Although it would be useful to know its influence on demographic decision-making and behaviour, we cannot evaluate this with our one-time cross-sectional survey. Our data and theory suggest that this influence may be substantial. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 329-345 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.714795 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.714795 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:329-345 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Neville Morley Author-X-Name-First: Neville Author-X-Name-Last: Morley Title: The Classical Foundations of Population Thought Journal: Population Studies Pages: 347-348 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719716 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719716 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:347-348 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Van Bavel Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Van Bavel Title: Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century. The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx Journal: Population Studies Pages: 348-351 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719718 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719718 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:348-351 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alice Reid Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Reid Title: The Changing Body: Health, Nutrition and Human Development in the Western World since 1700 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 351-353 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719719 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719719 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:351-353 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel Goodkind Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Goodkind Title: Cultivating Global Citizens: Population in the Rise of China Journal: Population Studies Pages: 353-355 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719720 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719720 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:353-355 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aderanti Adepoju Author-X-Name-First: Aderanti Author-X-Name-Last: Adepoju Title: Child Migration in Africa Journal: Population Studies Pages: 355-356 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719722 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719722 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:355-356 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sangeetha Madhavan Author-X-Name-First: Sangeetha Author-X-Name-Last: Madhavan Title: Young People's Lives and Sexual Relationships in Rural Africa Journal: Population Studies Pages: 356-358 Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.719724 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.719724 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:356-358 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Online Editorial Board Journal: Population Studies Pages: ebi-ebi Issue: 3 Volume: 66 Year: 2012 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2012.737188 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2012.737188 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:66:y:2012:i:3:p:ebi-ebi Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jennifer A. Holland Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer A. Author-X-Name-Last: Holland Author-Name: Helga A. G. de Valk Author-X-Name-First: Helga A. G. Author-X-Name-Last: de Valk Title: Differences in labour force participation by motherhood status among second-generation Turkish and majority women across Europe Abstract: Second-generation Turkish immigrants make up an increasingly important segment of European labour markets. These young adults are entering the prime working ages and forming families. However, we have only a limited understanding of the relationship between labour force participation and parenthood among second-generation Turkish women. Using unique data from the Integration of the European Second Generation survey (2007/08), we compared the labour force participation of second-generation Turkish women with their majority-group counterparts by motherhood status in four countries. We found evidence that motherhood gaps, with respect to labour force participation, were similar for majority and second-generation Turkish women in Germany and in Sweden; however, there may be larger gaps for second-generation mothers than for majority women in the Netherlands and France. Cross-national findings were consistent with the view that national normative and social policy contexts are relevant for the labour force participation of all women, regardless of migrant background. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 363-378 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1319495 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1319495 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:363-378 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dan A. Black Author-X-Name-First: Dan A. Author-X-Name-Last: Black Author-Name: Yu-Chieh Hsu Author-X-Name-First: Yu-Chieh Author-X-Name-Last: Hsu Author-Name: Seth G. Sanders Author-X-Name-First: Seth G. Author-X-Name-Last: Sanders Author-Name: Lowell J. Taylor Author-X-Name-First: Lowell J. Author-X-Name-Last: Taylor Title: Combining forward and backward mortality estimation Abstract: Demographers often form estimates by combining information from two data sources—a challenging problem when one or both data sources are incomplete. A classic example entails the construction of death probabilities, which requires death counts for the subpopulations under study and corresponding base population estimates. Approaches typically entail ‘back projection', as in Wrigley and Schofield's seminal analysis of historical English data, or ‘inverse’ or ‘forward projection’ as used by Lee in his important reanalysis of that work, both published in the 1980s. Our paper shows how forward and backward approaches can be optimally combined, using a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework. We apply the method to the estimation of death probabilities for relatively small subpopulations within the United States (men born 1930–39 by state of birth by birth cohort by race), combining data from vital statistics records and census samples. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 281-292 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1319496 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1319496 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:281-292 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Z. Guilmoto Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Z. Author-X-Name-Last: Guilmoto Title: Gender bias in reproductive behaviour in Georgia, Indonesia, and Vietnam: An application of the own-children method Abstract: I present a method for estimating indicators of gender bias in reproductive behaviour, using microdata based on the own-children method. The method is first tested on a large sample from India with both birth history and household records. I then apply the method to Georgia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. My estimates demonstrate that the proportion of Georgian couples expressing a preference for sons in their fertility behaviour closely corresponds to the proportion resorting to sex selection at high parities. I show how individual Indonesian provinces provide examples of both son and daughter preference. The method also allows me to date the onset of sex imbalances at birth in Vietnam. The approach based on the own-children method therefore provides a unique tool for estimating the diversity and intensity of gender bias in reproductive behaviour. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 265-279 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1330489 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1330489 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:265-279 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sarah R. Hayford Author-X-Name-First: Sarah R. Author-X-Name-Last: Hayford Author-Name: Victor Agadjanian Author-X-Name-First: Victor Author-X-Name-Last: Agadjanian Title: Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique Abstract: Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women’s desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 329-344 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1334957 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1334957 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:329-344 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Julia A. Jennings Author-X-Name-First: Julia A. Author-X-Name-Last: Jennings Author-Name: Luciana Quaranta Author-X-Name-First: Luciana Author-X-Name-Last: Quaranta Author-Name: Tommy Bengtsson Author-X-Name-First: Tommy Author-X-Name-Last: Bengtsson Title: Inequality and demographic response to short-term economic stress in North Orkney, Scotland, 1855–1910: Sector differences Abstract: We examine economic inequality and social differences in infant and child mortality, and fertility responses to food price changes in North Orkney, 1855–1910, using linked vital records. This small population featured a diverse occupational structure, limited land resources, and geographic isolation from mainland Scotland. Segments of Orkney’s non-agricultural working population were living so close to the margin of subsistence in normal years that an increase in food prices in bad years cost the lives of their children. Delayed childbearing, in addition to increased labour intensity, occupational diversification, and poor relief, failed to mitigate the negative effects of unfavourable prices in this group. While previous studies for Western Europe show a strong social gradient in mortality responses to food prices, and for Eastern Asia a strong household gradient, this study shows a strong sectoral gradient, indicating low standards of living for the non-agricultural working population well into the twentieth century. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 313-328 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1346196 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1346196 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:313-328 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Susan B. Schaffnit Author-X-Name-First: Susan B. Author-X-Name-Last: Schaffnit Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: Support for new mothers and fertility in the United Kingdom: Not all support is equal in the decision to have a second child Abstract: Low fertility across Europe highlights the need to understand reproductive decisions in high-income countries better. Availability of support may be one factor influencing reproductive decisions, though within high-income countries availability varies between environments, including socio-economic environments. We test whether receiving higher levels of support, from different sources (informal and formal) and of different types (practical and emotional), is positively correlated with second births in the United Kingdom (UK) Millennium Cohort Study, and whether these relationships differ by socio-economic position (SEP). Our hypothesis is only partially supported: receiving emotional support correlates with higher likelihood of second birth, but the opposite is true for practical support. Availability of different types of support varies across SEP, but relationships between support and fertility are similar, with one exception: kin-provided childcare increases the likelihood of birth only among lower-SEP women. Our results highlight that not all support is equal in the decision to have a second child. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 345-361 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1349924 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1349924 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:345-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aude Bernard Author-X-Name-First: Aude Author-X-Name-Last: Bernard Title: Levels and patterns of internal migration in Europe: A cohort perspective Abstract: Europe displays important variations in the level of internal migration, with a clear spatial gradient of high mobility in northern and western Europe but lower mobility in the south and east. However, cross-national variation in levels of internal migration remains poorly understood, because it is analysed almost exclusively using cross-sectional data and period measures. This paper seeks to advance understanding of cross-national variation in migration levels in 14 European countries by drawing on a recently proposed suite of migration cohort measures, coupled with internationally comparable retrospective residential histories. It shows that differences in migration levels are mainly attributable to variation in the extent of repeat movement, which is underpinned by the differences in mean ages at first and last move that together delineate the average length of migration careers. Cohort analysis provides a robust foundation for exploring the demographic mechanisms underpinning variation in migration levels across countries and over time. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 293-311 Issue: 3 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1360932 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1360932 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:293-311 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elyse A. Jennings Author-X-Name-First: Elyse A. Author-X-Name-Last: Jennings Title: Family composition and marital dissolution in rural Nepal, 1945–2008 Abstract: The presence, number, sex, and age composition of children within families can have important influences on couples’ marital outcomes. Children are valued across settings, but their value in settings where there is an absence of formalized social security is distinctive. This paper explores the influences of childlessness, and different number, age, and sex compositions of children, on the odds of marital dissolution among couples in rural Nepal. Results reveal that childless couples face significantly higher odds of dissolution than couples with at least one child, and each additional child—up to three children—reduces couples’ odds of dissolution. Furthermore, having a child aged under two reduces couples’ odds of marital dissolution, but interactions reveal that this age effect only holds at parity one. Surprisingly, despite a history of son preference in this setting, there is no evidence that children’s within-parity sex composition is associated with the odds of marital dissolution. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 229-248 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1282622 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1282622 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:229-248 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Bongaarts Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Bongaarts Author-Name: Barbara S. Mensch Author-X-Name-First: Barbara S. Author-X-Name-Last: Mensch Author-Name: Ann K. Blanc Author-X-Name-First: Ann K. Author-X-Name-Last: Blanc Title: Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education Abstract: Girls’ school participation has expanded considerably in the developing world over the last few decades, a phenomenon expected to have substantial consequences for reproductive behaviour. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 43 countries, this paper examines trends and differentials in the mean ages at three critical life-cycle events for young women: first sexual intercourse, first marriage, and first birth. We measure the extent to which trends in the timing of these events are driven either by the changing educational composition of populations or by changes in behaviour within education groups. Mean ages have risen over time in all regions for all three events, except age at first sex in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results from a decomposition exercise indicate that increases in educational attainment, rather than trends within education groups, are primarily responsible for the overall trends. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 139-154 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:139-154 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte Author-X-Name-First: Jesús J. Author-X-Name-Last: Sánchez-Barricarte Title: Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world Abstract: The classic theory used to explain the demographic transition assumes that mortality is the key explanatory variable influencing the decline in fertility. However, the empirical results obtained in what is known as the Princeton European Fertility Project have led many specialists to question this assumption. Using both national and provincial aggregated data for 25 countries over a long time span, the analysis reported in this paper found that mortality does indeed play a fundamental role in accounting for the main demographic changes that occurred both before and during the transitional period. Others’ research based on individual data has shown clearly that the number of surviving children was indeed an important factor for reproductive decisions. My analysis, using aggregated data, reached largely similar conclusions regarding the role of mortality in changing reproductive trends, via its impact on nuptiality and marital fertility at different stages of the demographic transition. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 155-170 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1294701 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1294701 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:155-170 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Margaret Frye Author-X-Name-First: Margaret Author-X-Name-Last: Frye Author-Name: Lauren Bachan Author-X-Name-First: Lauren Author-X-Name-Last: Bachan Title: The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011 Abstract: This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 187-209 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1304565 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1304565 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:187-209 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Daniel E. Martínez Author-X-Name-First: Daniel E. Author-X-Name-Last: Martínez Author-Name: Jeremy Slack Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy Author-X-Name-Last: Slack Author-Name: Kraig Beyerlein Author-X-Name-First: Kraig Author-X-Name-Last: Beyerlein Author-Name: Prescott Vandervoet Author-X-Name-First: Prescott Author-X-Name-Last: Vandervoet Author-Name: Kristin Klingman Author-X-Name-First: Kristin Author-X-Name-Last: Klingman Author-Name: Paola Molina Author-X-Name-First: Paola Author-X-Name-Last: Molina Author-Name: Shiras Manning Author-X-Name-First: Shiras Author-X-Name-Last: Manning Author-Name: Melissa Burham Author-X-Name-First: Melissa Author-X-Name-Last: Burham Author-Name: Kylie Walzak Author-X-Name-First: Kylie Author-X-Name-Last: Walzak Author-Name: Kristen Valencia Author-X-Name-First: Kristen Author-X-Name-Last: Valencia Author-Name: Lorenzo Gamboa Author-X-Name-First: Lorenzo Author-X-Name-Last: Gamboa Title: The Migrant Border Crossing Study: A methodological overview of research along the Sonora–Arizona border Abstract: Increased border enforcement efforts have redistributed unauthorized Mexican migration to the United States (US) away from traditional points of crossing, such as San Diego and El Paso, and into more remote areas along the US–Mexico border, including southern Arizona. Yet relatively little quantitative scholarly work exists examining Mexican migrants’ crossing, apprehension, and repatriation experiences in southern Arizona. We contend that if scholars truly want to understand the experiences of unauthorized migrants in transit, such migrants should be interviewed either at the border after being removed from the US, or during their trajectories across the border, or both. This paper provides a methodological overview of the Migrant Border Crossing Study (MBCS), a unique data source on Mexican migrants who attempted an unauthorized crossing along the Sonora–Arizona border, were apprehended, and repatriated to Nogales, Sonora in 2007–09. We also discuss substantive and theoretical contributions of the MBCS. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 249-264 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1306093 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1306093 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:249-264 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Søren Kjærgaard Author-X-Name-First: Søren Author-X-Name-Last: Kjærgaard Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Title: Potential support ratios: Cohort versus period perspectives Abstract: The ‘prospective potential support ratio’ has been proposed by researchers as a measure that accurately quantifies the burden of ageing, by identifying the fraction of a population that has passed a certain measure of longevity, for example, 17 years of life expectancy. Nevertheless, the prospective potential support ratio usually focuses on the current mortality schedule, or period life expectancy. Instead, in this paper we look at the actual mortality experienced by cohorts in a population, using cohort life tables. We analyse differences between the two perspectives using mortality models, historical data, and forecasted data. Cohort life expectancy takes future mortality improvements into account, unlike period life expectancy, leading to a higher prospective potential support ratio. Our results indicate that using cohort instead of period life expectancy returns around 0.5 extra younger people per older person among the analysed countries. We discuss the policy implications implied by our cohort measures. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 171-186 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1310919 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1310919 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:171-186 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Laurie F. DeRose Author-X-Name-First: Laurie F. Author-X-Name-Last: DeRose Author-Name: Andrés Salazar-Arango Author-X-Name-First: Andrés Author-X-Name-Last: Salazar-Arango Author-Name: Paúl Corcuera García Author-X-Name-First: Paúl Author-X-Name-Last: Corcuera García Author-Name: Montserrat Gas-Aixendri Author-X-Name-First: Montserrat Author-X-Name-Last: Gas-Aixendri Author-Name: Reynaldo Rivera Author-X-Name-First: Reynaldo Author-X-Name-Last: Rivera Title: Maternal union instability and childhood mortality risk in the Global South, 2010–14 Abstract: Efforts to improve child survival in lower-income countries typically focus on fundamental factors such as economic resources and infrastructure provision, even though research from post-industrial countries confirms that family instability has important health consequences. We tested the association between maternal union instability and children’s mortality risk in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia using children’s actual experience of mortality (discrete-time probit hazard models) as well as their experience of untreated morbidity (probit regression). Children of divorced/separated mothers experience compromised survival chances, but children of mothers who have never been in a union generally do not. Among children of partnered women, those whose mothers have experienced prior union transitions have a higher mortality risk. Targeting children of mothers who have experienced union instability—regardless of current union status—may augment ongoing efforts to reduce childhood mortality, especially in Africa and Latin America where union transitions are common. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 211-228 Issue: 2 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1316866 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1316866 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:211-228 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Silvia Bermúdez Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Author-X-Name-Last: Bermúdez Author-Name: Rafael Blanquero Author-X-Name-First: Rafael Author-X-Name-Last: Blanquero Title: Optimization models for degrouping population data Abstract: In certain countries population data are available in grouped form only, usually as quinquennial age groups plus a large open-ended range for the elderly. However, official statistics call for data by individual age since many statistical operations, such as the calculation of demographic indicators, require the use of ungrouped population data. In this paper a number of mathematical models are proposed which, starting from population data given in age groups, enable these ranges to be degrouped into age-specific population values without leaving a fractional part. Unlike other existing procedures for disaggregating demographic data, ours makes it possible to process several years' data simultaneously in a coherent way, and provides accurate results longitudinally as well as transversally. This procedure is also shown to be helpful in dealing with degrouped population data affected by noise, such as those affected by the age-heaping phenomenon. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 259-272 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1158853 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1158853 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:259-272 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Pieter van Baal Author-X-Name-First: Pieter Author-X-Name-Last: van Baal Author-Name: Frederik Peters Author-X-Name-First: Frederik Author-X-Name-Last: Peters Author-Name: Johan Mackenbach Author-X-Name-First: Johan Author-X-Name-Last: Mackenbach Author-Name: Wilma Nusselder Author-X-Name-First: Wilma Author-X-Name-Last: Nusselder Title: Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education Abstract: Forecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. Of relevance to these debates are inequalities in LE by education. In this paper, we present a method of forecasting LE for different educational groups within a population. As a basic framework we use the Li–Lee model that was developed to forecast mortality coherently for different groups. We adapted this model to distinguish between overall, sex-specific, and education-specific trends in mortality, and extrapolated these time trends in a flexible manner. We illustrate our method for the population aged 65 and over in the Netherlands, using several data sources and spanning different periods. The results suggest that LE is likely to increase for all educational groups, but that differences in LE between educational groups will widen. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the advantages of our proposed method. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 201-216 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1159718 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1159718 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:201-216 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hannaliis Jaadla Author-X-Name-First: Hannaliis Author-X-Name-Last: Jaadla Author-Name: Allan Puur Author-X-Name-First: Allan Author-X-Name-Last: Puur Title: The impact of water supply and sanitation on infant mortality: Individual-level evidence from Tartu, Estonia, 1897–1900 Abstract: Evidence from a number of historical studies has demonstrated a strong impact of the provision of clean water on mortality risks, while no clear effect has been reported in others. We investigated the relationship between water supply, sanitation, and infant survival in Tartu, a university town in Estonia, 1897–1900. Based on data from parish registers, which were linked to the first census of the Russian Empire, the analysis reveals a clear disadvantage for infants in households using surface water, compared with families that acquired water from groundwater or artesian wells. The impact is stronger in the later stages of infancy. Competing-risk analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for deaths caused by diseases of the digestive system. Our findings suggest that it may have been possible to improve the water supply, and consequently reduce infant mortality, before the introduction of piped water and sewage systems. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 163-179 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1176237 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1176237 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:163-179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Murphy Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Murphy Title: The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland Abstract: We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 149-162 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1185140 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1185140 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:149-162 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Peter McDonald Author-X-Name-First: Peter Author-X-Name-Last: McDonald Author-Name: Ian Pool Author-X-Name-First: Ian Author-X-Name-Last: Pool Title: Jack Caldwell 1928–2016 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 141-148 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1189648 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1189648 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:141-148 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nick Parr Author-X-Name-First: Nick Author-X-Name-Last: Parr Author-Name: Jackie Li Author-X-Name-First: Jackie Author-X-Name-Last: Li Author-Name: Leonie Tickle Author-X-Name-First: Leonie Author-X-Name-Last: Tickle Title: A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies Abstract: The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 181-200 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1190029 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1190029 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:181-200 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elina Einiö Author-X-Name-First: Elina Author-X-Name-Last: Einiö Author-Name: Jessica Nisén Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Nisén Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen Author-X-Name-First: Pekka Author-X-Name-Last: Martikainen Title: Number of children and later-life mortality among Finns born 1938–50 Abstract: We investigated the association between number of offspring and later-life mortality of Finnish men and women born 1938–50, and whether the association was explained by living conditions in own childhood and adulthood, chronic conditions, fertility timing, and unobserved characteristics common to siblings. We used a longitudinal 1950 census sample to estimate mortality at ages 50–72. Relative to parents of two children, all-cause mortality is highest among childless men and women, and elevated among those with one child, independently of observed confounders. Fixed-effect models, which control for unobserved characteristics shared by siblings, clearly support these findings among men. Cardiovascular mortality is higher among men with no, one, or at least four children than among those with two. Living conditions in adulthood contribute to the association between the number of children and mortality to a greater extent than childhood background, and chronic conditions contribute to the excess mortality of the childless. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 217-238 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1195506 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1195506 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:217-238 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Barbara S. Okun Author-X-Name-First: Barbara S. Author-X-Name-Last: Okun Title: An investigation of the unexpectedly high fertility of secular, native-born Jews in Israel Abstract: Secular, native-born Jews in Israel enjoy the socio-economic status of many affluent populations living in other democratic countries, but have above-replacement period and cohort fertility. This study revealed a constellation of interrelated factors which together characterize the socio-economic, cultural, and political environment of this fertility behaviour and set it apart from that of other advanced societies. The factors are: a combination of state and family support for childbearing; a dual emphasis on the social importance of women's employment and fertility; policies that support working mothers within a conservative welfare regime; a family system in which parents provide significant financial and caregiving aid to their adult children; relatively egalitarian gender-role attitudes and household behaviour; the continuing importance of familist ideology and of marriage as a social institution; the role of Jewish nationalism and collective behaviour in a religious society characterized by ethno-national conflict; and a discourse which defines women as the biological reproducers of the nation.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1195913 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 239-257 Issue: 2 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1195913 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1195913 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:2:p:239-257 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Heather Joshi Author-X-Name-First: Heather Author-X-Name-Last: Joshi Title: The Life Project: The Extraordinary Story of Our Ordinary Lives Journal: Population Studies Pages: 134-135 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1191811 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1191811 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:134-135 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Title: Sociology as a Population Science Journal: Population Studies Pages: 133-134 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1201269 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1201269 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:133-134 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Dribe Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Dribe Author-Name: Marco Breschi Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Breschi Author-Name: Alain Gagnon Author-X-Name-First: Alain Author-X-Name-Last: Gagnon Author-Name: Danielle Gauvreau Author-X-Name-First: Danielle Author-X-Name-Last: Gauvreau Author-Name: Heidi A. Hanson Author-X-Name-First: Heidi A. Author-X-Name-Last: Hanson Author-Name: Thomas N. Maloney Author-X-Name-First: Thomas N. Author-X-Name-Last: Maloney Author-Name: Stanislao Mazzoni Author-X-Name-First: Stanislao Author-X-Name-Last: Mazzoni Author-Name: Joseph Molitoris Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Molitoris Author-Name: Lucia Pozzi Author-X-Name-First: Lucia Author-X-Name-Last: Pozzi Author-Name: Ken R. Smith Author-X-Name-First: Ken R. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Author-Name: Hélène Vézina Author-X-Name-First: Hélène Author-X-Name-Last: Vézina Title: Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America Abstract: The timings of historical fertility transitions in different regions are well understood by demographers, but much less is known regarding their specific features and causes. In the study reported in this paper, we used longitudinal micro-level data for five local populations in Europe and North America to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and fertility during the fertility transition. Using comparable analytical models and class schemes for each population, we examined the changing socio-economic differences in marital fertility and related these to common theories on fertility behaviour. Our results do not provide support for the hypothesis of universally high fertility among the upper classes in pre-transitional society, but do support the idea that the upper classes acted as forerunners by reducing their fertility before other groups. Farmers and unskilled workers were the latest to start limiting their fertility. Apart from these similarities, patterns of class differences in fertility varied significantly between populations. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 3-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1253857 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1253857 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:3-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Warren B. Miller Author-X-Name-First: Warren B. Author-X-Name-Last: Miller Author-Name: Jennifer S. Barber Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer S. Author-X-Name-Last: Barber Author-Name: Paul Schulz Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Schulz Title: Do perceptions of their partners’ childbearing desires affect young women’s pregnancy risk? Further study of ambivalence Abstract: We explore whether young women’s perceptions of their sexual partners’ childbearing desires contribute to their risk of pregnancy. We used weekly journal data collected from 787 young women to measure their childbearing desires and their perceptions of their partners’ childbearing desires. We then conducted hazard modelling to predict pregnancy risk with variables based on interactions between the women’s desires and their perceived partners’ desires. Models that include perceived partners’ desires perform better than one based on women’s desires alone. The best model contains three significant predictors: one confirms the importance of pronatal, ambivalent, and indifferent desires for pregnancy risk; one indicates that the perceived partners’ antinatal desires reduce women’s pregnancy risk; and one suggests that women who both perceive their partners accurately and are in agreement with them have a lower pregnancy risk. The results indicate that perceived partner data can improve prediction and enhance our understanding of pregnancy risk. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 101-116 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1253858 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1253858 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:101-116 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Scalone Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Scalone Author-Name: Patrizia Agati Author-X-Name-First: Patrizia Author-X-Name-Last: Agati Author-Name: Aurora Angeli Author-X-Name-First: Aurora Author-X-Name-Last: Angeli Author-Name: Annalisa Donno Author-X-Name-First: Annalisa Author-X-Name-Last: Donno Title: Exploring unobserved heterogeneity in perinatal and neonatal mortality risks: The case of an Italian sharecropping community, 1900–39 Abstract: Previous researchers have found that traditional determinants explain only a limited part of the variation in perinatal and infant mortality at the family level. In the study reported in this paper, we explored the factors that make the perinatal/neonatal death risk more heterogeneous across families. We estimated logistic regressions with cluster random effects at the maternal level, using data from the Italian village of Granarolo from 1900 to 1939. We estimated the effects of selected predictors on perinatal/neonatal mortality and unexplained inter-family variation. We found that non-rural skilled and lower-skilled workers experienced higher perinatal and neonatal mortality risks. Unexplained heterogeneity at the maternal level was lower for women living in sharecropper families than for those in landless labourer and non-rural worker families. Unexplained perinatal and neonatal mortality components were also due to socio-economic differences and were not necessarily related only to maternal biological features or shared genetic frailty. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 23-41 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1254812 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1254812 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:23-41 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Kwon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Kwon Author-Name: Augustine Kposowa Author-X-Name-First: Augustine Author-X-Name-Last: Kposowa Title: Shifting racial hierarchies: An analysis of residential segregation among multi-racial and mono-racial groups in the United States Abstract: Multi-racial (mixed-race) people constitute a growing percentage of the United States (US) population. The study reported in this paper used residential segregation measures as a proxy for social distance, to examine whether segregation levels of multi-racial groups differ from those of mono-racial groups in the US in 2010. First, we find that all multi-racial groups considered in the study experience lower levels of segregation at county level than their mono-racial counterparts. However, black-whites and Hispanic-whites experience higher levels of segregation than other multi-racial groups. Second, we find region and minority composition of counties are associated significantly with segregation levels for multi-racial groups, but relative income is not. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 83-99 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1254813 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1254813 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:83-99 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Baranowska-Rataj Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Author-Name: Martin Kolk Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Kolk Title: The effect of number of siblings on adult mortality: Evidence from Swedish registers for cohorts born between 1938 and 1972 Abstract: Demographic research has paid much attention to the impact of childhood conditions on adult mortality. We focus on one of the key aspects of early life conditions, sibling group size, and examine the causal effect of growing up in a large family on mortality. While previous studies have focused on low- or middle-income countries, we examine whether growing up in a large family is a disadvantage in Sweden, a context where most parents have adequate resources, which are complemented by a generous welfare state. We used Swedish register data and frailty models, examining all-cause and cause-specific mortality between the ages of 40 and 74 for the 1938–72 cohorts, and also a quasi-experimental approach that exploited multiple births as a source of exogenous variation in the number of siblings. Overall our results do not indicate that growing up in a large family has a detrimental effect on longevity in Sweden. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 43-63 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1260755 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1260755 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:43-63 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sangeetha Madhavan Author-X-Name-First: Sangeetha Author-X-Name-Last: Madhavan Author-Name: Shelley Clark Author-X-Name-First: Shelley Author-X-Name-Last: Clark Author-Name: Donatien Beguy Author-X-Name-First: Donatien Author-X-Name-Last: Beguy Author-Name: Caroline W. Kabiru Author-X-Name-First: Caroline W. Author-X-Name-Last: Kabiru Author-Name: Mark Gross Author-X-Name-First: Mark Author-X-Name-Last: Gross Title: Moving beyond the household: Innovations in data collection on kinship Abstract: Across settings, it has been shown that the co-residential household is an insufficient measure of family structure and support. However, it continues to be the primary means of population data collection. To address this problem, we developed a new instrument, the Kinship Support Tree (KST), to collect kinship structure and support data on co-residential and non-residential kin and tested it on a sample of 462 single mothers and their children in a slum community in Nairobi, Kenya. This instrument is unique in four important ways: (1) it is not limited to the co-residential household; (2) it distinguishes potential from functional kin; (3) it incorporates multiple geospatial measures; and (4) it collects data on kin relationships specifically for children. In this paper, we describe the KST instrument, assess the data collected in comparison to data from household rosters, and consider the challenges and feasibility of administration of the KST. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 117-132 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1262965 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1262965 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:117-132 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Smallwood Author-X-Name-First: Steve Author-X-Name-Last: Smallwood Title: Dynamic Demographic Analysis Journal: Population Studies Pages: 135-137 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1269973 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1269973 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:135-137 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jona Schellekens Author-X-Name-First: Jona Author-X-Name-Last: Schellekens Title: The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis Abstract: In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age–period–cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925–79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 65-82 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1271140 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1271140 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:65-82 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Thanks to reviewers of papers submitted 2015–2016 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-2 Issue: 1 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1287989 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1287989 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:1-2 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jennifer Lauby Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer Author-X-Name-Last: Lauby Author-Name: Oded Stark Author-X-Name-First: Oded Author-X-Name-Last: Stark Author-Person: pst393 Title: Individual Migration as a Family Strategy: Young Women in the Philippines Abstract: Migration behaviour by individuals, migration decisions and migration outcomes are not neutral to the needs and constraints facing the migrants' families who stay put. In this paper evidence from the Philippines is presented and analysed which suggests that the choice of migrant members and migration destination are largely determined by familial characteristics. Several interesting insights into the migration process are obtained. The standard human-capital approach explains the inverse relationship between the age of migrants and the propensity to migrate through the longer pay-off period facing the young. However, it is found that the young age of migrants can be explained by their greater amenability to familial income needs and familial manipulation. This amenability also seems to explain the preference for daughters over sons as migrants. Likewise, the initial labour-market performance of migrants is accounted for not, as in human-capital theory, by migrants' low skill levels but rather by familial needs which mandate participation in labour-market activities that secure certain if low short-run returns. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 157-173 Issue: 3 Volume: 42 Year: 1988 X-DOI: 10.1080/0032472031000143596 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1411969 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:42:y:1988:i:3:p:157-173 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jonathan Gray Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan Author-X-Name-Last: Gray Author-Name: Jason Hilton Author-X-Name-First: Jason Author-X-Name-Last: Hilton Author-Name: Jakub Bijak Author-X-Name-First: Jakub Author-X-Name-Last: Bijak Title: Choosing the choice: Reflections on modelling decisions and behaviour in demographic agent-based models Abstract: This paper investigates the issues associated with choosing appropriate models of choice for demographic agent-based models. In particular, we discuss the importance of context, time preference, and dealing with uncertainty in decision modelling, as well as the heterogeneity between agents in their decision-making strategies. The paper concludes by advocating empirically driven, modular, and multi-model approaches to designing simulations of human decision-making, given the lack of an agreed strategy for dealing with any of these issues. Furthermore, we suggest that an iterative process of data collection and simulation experiments, with the latter informing future empirical data collection, should form the basis of such an endeavour. The discussion is illustrated with reference to selected demographic agent-based models, with a focus on migration. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 85-97 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1350280 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:85-97 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Klabunde Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Klabunde Author-Name: Sabine Zinn Author-X-Name-First: Sabine Author-X-Name-Last: Zinn Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Author-Name: Matthias Leuchter Author-X-Name-First: Matthias Author-X-Name-Last: Leuchter Title: Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration Abstract: We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 51-67 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1350281 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:51-67 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stefanie Kley Author-X-Name-First: Stefanie Author-X-Name-Last: Kley Title: Facilitators and constraints at each stage of the migration decision process Abstract: Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006–07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 35-49 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1359328 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1359328 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:35-49 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: André Grow Author-X-Name-First: André Author-X-Name-Last: Grow Author-Name: Christine Schnor Author-X-Name-First: Christine Author-X-Name-Last: Schnor Author-Name: Jan Van Bavel Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Van Bavel Title: The reversal of the gender gap in education and relative divorce risks: A matter of alternatives in partner choice? Abstract: Recent evidence from the United States suggests that the reversal of the gender gap in education was associated with changes in relative divorce risks: hypogamous marriages, where the wife was more educated than the husband, used to have a higher divorce risk than hypergamous marriages, where the husband was more educated, but this difference has disappeared. One interpretation holds that this may result from cultural change, involving increasing social acceptance of hypogamy. We propose an alternative mechanism that need not presuppose cultural change: the gender-gap reversal in education has changed the availability of alternatives from which highly educated women and men can choose new partners. This may have lowered the likelihood of women leaving husbands with less education and encouraged men to leave less educated spouses. We applied an agent-based model to twelve European national marriage markets to illustrate that this could be sufficient to create a convergence in divorce risks. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 15-34 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1371477 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1371477 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:15-34 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Author-Name: Jakub Bijak Author-X-Name-First: Jakub Author-X-Name-Last: Bijak Author-Name: Anna Klabunde Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Klabunde Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz Author-X-Name-First: Alexia Author-X-Name-Last: Prskawetz Title: The science of choice: an introduction Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-13 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1376921 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1376921 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:1-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Warnke Author-X-Name-First: Tom Author-X-Name-Last: Warnke Author-Name: Oliver Reinhardt Author-X-Name-First: Oliver Author-X-Name-Last: Reinhardt Author-Name: Anna Klabunde Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Klabunde Author-Name: Frans Willekens Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens Author-Name: Adelinde M. Uhrmacher Author-X-Name-First: Adelinde M. Author-X-Name-Last: Uhrmacher Title: Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives: An approach based on concurrent processes and stochastic race Abstract: Individuals’ decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by networks the individual is part of, such as family ties and other social networks. Central concepts, such as behaviour conditional on agent attributes, age-dependent behaviour, and stochastic waiting times, are tightly integrated in the language. Thereby, alternative decisions are modelled by concurrent processes that compete by stochastic race. Using a migration model, we demonstrate how this allows for compact description of complex decisions, here based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We describe the challenges for the simulation algorithm posed by stochastic race between multiple concurrent complex decisions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 69-83 Issue: 0 Volume: 71 Year: 2017 Month: 10 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1380960 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1380960 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:0:p:69-83 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Margaret Triyana Author-X-Name-First: Margaret Author-X-Name-Last: Triyana Title: The effects of Indonesia's ‘Midwife in the Village’ programme 10 years post-launch Abstract: Data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (1993–2000) were used to examine whether the effects of the Indonesian ‘Midwife in the Village’ programme persisted more than 10 years after its implementation. The study followed up earlier studies of the programme’s effects by estimating its effects on pregnancy outcomes, using propensity-score matching applied to data collected after the 1997 Asian economic crisis. The results indicate that only the programme’s effect on the use of prenatal care services persisted, and that the loss of village midwives during the crisis had no significant effect on pregnancy outcomes. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 365-376 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1145728 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1145728 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:365-376 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alexandre Gori Maia Author-X-Name-First: Alexandre Gori Author-X-Name-Last: Maia Author-Name: Camila Strobl Sakamoto Author-X-Name-First: Camila Strobl Author-X-Name-Last: Sakamoto Title: The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981–2011 Abstract: This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 293-309 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1201588 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1201588 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:293-309 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Eva Beaujouan Author-X-Name-First: Eva Author-X-Name-Last: Beaujouan Author-Name: Zuzanna Brzozowska Author-X-Name-First: Zuzanna Author-X-Name-Last: Brzozowska Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman Author-X-Name-First: Kryštof Author-X-Name-Last: Zeman Title: The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe, women born 1916–65 Abstract: During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 275-291 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1206210 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1206210 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:275-291 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Hoem Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Hoem Author-Name: Lesia Nedoluzhko Author-X-Name-First: Lesia Author-X-Name-Last: Nedoluzhko Title: The dangers of using ‘negative durations’ to estimate pre- and post-migration fertility Abstract: To keep childbearing that occurs before and after migration separate from each other, many analysts apply a technique that uses ‘negative durations’ to estimate the childbearing risks that migrants have before they migrate. This strategy can lead to incorrect results and should be abandoned. In this research note, we use data for births and internal migration in Sweden to highlight how the two types of behaviour can be kept apart conceptually and analytically without use of ‘negative durations’. The procedures used can easily be generalized to any similarly linked pair of behaviours. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 359-363 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1221442 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1221442 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:359-363 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jona Schellekens Author-X-Name-First: Jona Author-X-Name-Last: Schellekens Author-Name: Frans van Poppel Author-X-Name-First: Frans Author-X-Name-Last: van Poppel Title: Early-life conditions and adult mortality decline in Dutch cohorts born 1812–1921 Abstract: Mounting evidence suggests that early-life conditions have an enduring effect on an individual’s mortality risks as an adult. The contribution of improvements in early-life conditions to the overall decline in adult mortality, however, remains a debated issue. We provide an estimate of the contribution of improvements in early-life conditions to mortality decline after age 30 in Dutch cohorts born between 1812 and 1921. We used two proxies for early-life conditions: median height and early-childhood mortality. We estimate that improvements in early-life conditions contributed more than five years or about a third to the rise in women’s life expectancy at age 30. Improvements in early-life conditions contributed almost three years or more than a quarter to the rise in men’s life expectancy at age 30. Height appears to be the more important of the two proxies for early-life conditions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 327-343 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1223336 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1223336 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:327-343 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Tom Wilson Author-X-Name-First: Tom Author-X-Name-Last: Wilson Title: The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61 Abstract: Existing projections of Australia’s Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static–dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011–61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia’s Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 311-326 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1224372 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1224372 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:311-326 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Leena Merdad Author-X-Name-First: Leena Author-X-Name-Last: Merdad Author-Name: Kenneth Hill Author-X-Name-First: Kenneth Author-X-Name-Last: Hill Author-Name: Michael Levin Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Levin Title: Data on survival of recent births as a source of child mortality estimates in the developing world: An assessment of census data Abstract: In many less developed countries, household surveys collect full and summary birth histories to provide estimates of child mortality. However, full birth histories are expensive to collect and cannot provide precise estimates for small areas, and summary birth histories only provide past child mortality trends. A simple method that provides estimates for the most recent past uses questions about the survival of recent births in censuses or large household surveys. This study examines such data collected by 45 censuses and shows that on average they tend to underestimate under-5 mortality in comparison with alternative estimates, albeit with wide variations. In addition, the high non-sampling uncertainty in this approach precludes its use in providing robust estimates of child mortality at the country level. Given these findings, we suggest that questions about the survival of recent births to collect data on child mortality not be included in census questionnaires. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 345-358 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1225786 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1225786 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:345-358 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ian M. Timæus Author-X-Name-First: Ian M. Author-X-Name-Last: Timæus Title: Going online – a tribute to John Simons Journal: Population Studies Pages: 273-274 Issue: 3 Volume: 70 Year: 2016 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1243198 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2016.1243198 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:70:y:2016:i:3:p:273-274 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Author-Name: Kazuyo Machiyama Author-X-Name-First: Kazuyo Author-X-Name-Last: Machiyama Author-Name: John B. Casterline Author-X-Name-First: John B. Author-X-Name-Last: Casterline Title: Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations Abstract: Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-21 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:1-21 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: James Raymer Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer Author-Name: Qing Guan Author-X-Name-First: Qing Author-X-Name-Last: Guan Author-Name: Robert J. Norman Author-X-Name-First: Robert J. Author-X-Name-Last: Norman Author-Name: William Ledger Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Ledger Author-Name: Georgina M. Chambers Author-X-Name-First: Georgina M. Author-X-Name-Last: Chambers Title: Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments Abstract: This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization. The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 23-38 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:23-38 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zsolt Spéder Author-X-Name-First: Zsolt Author-X-Name-Last: Spéder Author-Name: Lívia Murinkó Author-X-Name-First: Lívia Author-X-Name-Last: Murinkó Author-Name: Livia Sz. Oláh Author-X-Name-First: Livia Sz. Author-X-Name-Last: Oláh Title: Cash support vs. tax incentives: The differential impact of policy interventions on third births in contemporary Hungary Abstract: Following steep falls in birth rates in Central and Eastern European countries during the economic and institutional restructuring of the early 1990s, governments made substantial efforts to stop or at least reduce the fertility decline. In Hungary, parents with three or more children could benefit from specific new policy measures: the flat-rate child-rearing support paid from the youngest child's third to eighth birthdays (signalling recognition of stay-at-home motherhood) and a redesigned and upgraded tax relief system. However, the success of these policy measures, if any, is difficult to detect in aggregate statistics. Analysing data from the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey, we rely on event history methods to examine the policies’ effects on third birth risks, especially among different socio-economic groups. The results indicate that while the child-rearing support increased third birth risks among the least educated, the generous tax relief had a similar effect for parents with tertiary education. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 39-54 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1694165 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1694165 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:39-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Esha Chatterjee Author-X-Name-First: Esha Author-X-Name-Last: Chatterjee Author-Name: Christie Sennott Author-X-Name-First: Christie Author-X-Name-Last: Sennott Title: Fertility intentions and maternal health behaviour during and after pregnancy Abstract: This study examines associations between fertility intentions and maternal health behaviours during and after pregnancy among a nationally representative sample of 3,442 women from India. Two waves of data (2005, 2012) from the India Human Development Survey were analyzed to investigate the influence of unwanted births on women’s use of antenatal care, timely postnatal care, and the delivery setting using binary and ordered logistic regression, partial proportional odds models, and propensity score weighting. Fifty-eight per cent of sample births were unwanted. Regression results show that, net of maternal and household characteristics, women with unwanted births were less likely to obtain any antenatal care and had fewer antenatal tests performed. Unwantedness was also associated with a lower likelihood of delivering in an institutional setting and of obtaining timely postnatal care. The relationships between unwantedness and antenatal care, postnatal care, and delivery setting were robust to models accounting for propensity weighting. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 55-74 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1672881 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1672881 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:55-74 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jesús-Adrián Alvarez Author-X-Name-First: Jesús-Adrián Author-X-Name-Last: Alvarez Author-Name: José Manuel Aburto Author-X-Name-First: José Manuel Author-X-Name-Last: Aburto Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Title: Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries Abstract: It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 75-92 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1614651 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1614651 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:75-92 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dorean Nabukalu Author-X-Name-First: Dorean Author-X-Name-Last: Nabukalu Author-Name: Georges Reniers Author-X-Name-First: Georges Author-X-Name-Last: Reniers Author-Name: Kathryn A. Risher Author-X-Name-First: Kathryn A. Author-X-Name-Last: Risher Author-Name: Sylvia Blom Author-X-Name-First: Sylvia Author-X-Name-Last: Blom Author-Name: Emma Slaymaker Author-X-Name-First: Emma Author-X-Name-Last: Slaymaker Author-Name: Chodziwadziwa Kabudula Author-X-Name-First: Chodziwadziwa Author-X-Name-Last: Kabudula Author-Name: Basia Zaba Author-X-Name-First: Basia Author-X-Name-Last: Zaba Author-Name: Fred Nalugoda Author-X-Name-First: Fred Author-X-Name-Last: Nalugoda Author-Name: Godfrey Kigozi Author-X-Name-First: Godfrey Author-X-Name-Last: Kigozi Author-Name: Fred Makumbi Author-X-Name-First: Fred Author-X-Name-Last: Makumbi Author-Name: David Serwadda Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Serwadda Author-Name: Steven J. Reynolds Author-X-Name-First: Steven J. Author-X-Name-Last: Reynolds Author-Name: Milly Marston Author-X-Name-First: Milly Author-X-Name-Last: Marston Author-Name: Jeffrey W. Eaton Author-X-Name-First: Jeffrey W. Author-X-Name-Last: Eaton Author-Name: Ron Gray Author-X-Name-First: Ron Author-X-Name-Last: Gray Author-Name: Maria Wawer Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Wawer Author-Name: Nelson Sewankambo Author-X-Name-First: Nelson Author-X-Name-Last: Sewankambo Author-Name: Tom Lutalo Author-X-Name-First: Tom Author-X-Name-Last: Lutalo Title: Population-level adult mortality following the expansion of antiretroviral therapy in Rakai, Uganda Abstract: There are limited data on the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on population-level adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed data for 2000–14 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, where free ART was scaled up after 2004. Using non-parametric and parametric (Weibull) survival analysis, we estimated trends in average person-years lived between exact ages 15 and 50, per capita life-years lost to HIV, and the mortality hazards of people living with HIV (PLHIV). Between 2000 and 2014, average adult life-years lived before age 50 increased significantly, from 26.4 to 33.5 years for all women and from 28.6 to 33.8 years for all men. As of 2014, life-years lost to HIV had declined significantly, to 1.3 years among women and 0.4 years among men. Following the roll-out of ART, mortality reductions among PLHIV were initially larger in women than men, but this is no longer the case. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 93-102 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1595099 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1595099 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:93-102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna-Maria Eurenius Author-X-Name-First: Anna-Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Eurenius Title: A family affair: Evidence of chain migration during the mass emigration from the county of Halland in Sweden to the United States in the 1890s Abstract: This paper examines the influence of individual and household factors on an individual’s propensity to emigrate from Halland, a region in south-west Sweden, to the United States during the era of mass migration in the late nineteenth century. The study has a case–control design, using individual-level longitudinal data for a group of emigrants (cases) and a group of non-emigrants (controls). Results indicate the importance of a family’s emigration history; individuals whose relatives had previously moved to the United States were more likely to emigrate themselves. In addition, the results also show how this impact varied between groups and how other factors relating to the individual’s life situation affected the migration decision. Thus, this paper shows how chain migration and migration networks play important roles during times of mass migration. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 103-118 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1559945 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1559945 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:103-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Véronique Hertrich Author-X-Name-First: Véronique Author-X-Name-Last: Hertrich Author-Name: Pascaline Feuillet Author-X-Name-First: Pascaline Author-X-Name-Last: Feuillet Author-Name: Olivia Samuel Author-X-Name-First: Olivia Author-X-Name-Last: Samuel Author-Name: Assa Doumbia Gakou Author-X-Name-First: Assa Author-X-Name-Last: Doumbia Gakou Author-Name: Aurélien Dasré Author-X-Name-First: Aurélien Author-X-Name-Last: Dasré Title: Can we study the family environment through census data? A comparison of households, dwellings, and domestic units in rural Mali Abstract: Are ‘statistical households’, as defined in national censuses, able to describe the family environment in Africa? Do they correspond to the family units that individuals identify with? To address this issue, we build on a follow-up survey in south-east Mali, which links national censuses with local censuses at the individual level (N ≈ 28,000 census observations). Three cross-sectional snapshots of family arrangements are compared: households recorded in national censuses, and family economic units and residential units recorded by local censuses. The national census household data appear poorly suited to documenting family living arrangements. They do not account for family economic units or residential units, but are highly conditioned by a normative representation centred on the nuclear family. Therefore, they fail to describe the complexity and diversity of people’s living spaces, making particular types of living arrangements invisible and increasing the likelihood of omitting individuals who do not fit into a nuclear model. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 119-138 Issue: 1 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1694166 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1694166 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:1:p:119-138 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Cem Mete Author-X-Name-First: Cem Author-X-Name-Last: Mete Author-Name: Laurent Bossavie Author-X-Name-First: Laurent Author-X-Name-Last: Bossavie Author-Name: John Giles Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Giles Author-Name: Harold Alderman Author-X-Name-First: Harold Author-X-Name-Last: Alderman Title: Is consanguinity an impediment to child development? Abstract: Marriages between blood relatives—also known as consanguineous unions—are widespread in North Africa, Central and West Asia, and South Asia. Researchers have suggested that consanguinity has adverse effects on child development, but assessing its impact is not straightforward, as the decision to marry a relative might be endogenous to other socio-economic factors. Using a unique data set collected in rural Pakistan, this paper assesses the extent to which consanguinity is linked to children’s cognitive and physical development. It exploits grandfathers’ land ownership (current and past) and maternal grandparent mortality to identify the effect of endogenous consanguinity on child development. Children born into consanguineous unions have lower cognitive scores, lower height-for-age, and a higher likelihood of being severely stunted. More importantly, adverse effects are greater after accounting for the endogeneity of consanguinity, suggesting that impacts on child development are substantial, and likely to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 139-159 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1699942 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1699942 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:139-159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark Gortfelder Author-X-Name-First: Mark Author-X-Name-Last: Gortfelder Author-Name: Allan Puur Author-X-Name-First: Allan Author-X-Name-Last: Puur Title: Survival and sex composition of offspring: Individual-level responses in the quantum and tempo of childbearing during the demographic transition Abstract: Previous studies have documented varying fertility responses to childhood mortality and to the sex composition of the surviving offspring during the demographic transition. We contribute to this literature by applying a mixture cure model to reproductive histories of Estonian women born 1850–99. This model, unlike standard event history models, is capable of separating the effect of the covariates on the propensity of having another birth from their effect on its timing. Child fatalities, not having sons, and to a smaller extent, not having daughters, increased the propensity to have another child and decreased the interval to it. The response was stronger among later cohorts, but only with respect to parity progression. By contrast, the accelerated childbearing response diminished over time. Our findings suggest that behavioural responses in the quantum and tempo of childbearing can occur relatively independently. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 161-177 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1721736 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1721736 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:161-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kathleen Broussard Author-X-Name-First: Kathleen Author-X-Name-Last: Broussard Author-Name: Abigail Weitzman Author-X-Name-First: Abigail Author-X-Name-Last: Weitzman Title: Sibling loss and fertility desires in the high-mortality context of Peru Abstract: Despite demographers’ long-standing preoccupation with the effects of child mortality on women’s fertility desires, scholars continue to know little about the consequences of other pervasive mortality exposures. We use nationally representative data from the high-mortality context of Peru to examine whether the desire to have a(nother) child varies as a function of sibling loss and to assess heterogeneity in this association by women’s current number of children and a range of conditions related to siblings’ deaths. Women who have experienced sibling bereavement and have two or more children report higher odds of desiring another child. These effects are not contingent on the age or sex of the deceased sibling but are only significant if the sibling died during the respondent’s lifetime (not before). These findings highlight the theoretical and empirical import of investigating the relationship between fertility desires and a wider range of familial mortality exposures beyond own child mortality. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-195 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1737188 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1737188 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:179-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alice Reid Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Reid Author-Name: Hannaliis Jaadla Author-X-Name-First: Hannaliis Author-X-Name-Last: Jaadla Author-Name: Eilidh Garrett Author-X-Name-First: Eilidh Author-X-Name-Last: Garrett Author-Name: Kevin Schürer Author-X-Name-First: Kevin Author-X-Name-Last: Schürer Title: Adapting the Own Children Method to allow comparison of fertility between populations with different marriage regimes Abstract: The Own Children Method (OCM) is an indirect procedure for deriving age-specific fertility rates and total fertility from children living with their mothers at a census or survey. The method was designed primarily for the calculation of overall fertility, although there are variants that allow the calculation of marital fertility. In this paper we argue that the standard variants for calculating marital fertility can produce misleading results and require strong assumptions, particularly when applied to social or spatial subgroups. We present two new variants of the method for calculating marital fertility: the first of these allows for the presence of non-marital fertility and the second also permits the more robust calculation of rates for social subgroups of the population. We illustrate and test these using full-count census data for England and Wales in 1911. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 197-218 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1630563 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1630563 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:197-218 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Emily M. D. Grundy Author-X-Name-First: Emily M. D. Author-X-Name-Last: Grundy Author-Name: Sanna Read Author-X-Name-First: Sanna Author-X-Name-Last: Read Author-Name: Heini Väisänen Author-X-Name-First: Heini Author-X-Name-Last: Väisänen Title: Fertility trajectories and later-life depression among parents in England Abstract: We examine pathways between indicators of fertility tempo/quantum and depressive symptoms among parents aged 55+ with at least two children, using three waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Using standard regression approaches and path analysis within the structural equation framework, we also investigate whether fertility trajectories mediated the association between childhood disadvantage and later-life depression. Results provide limited support for direct influences of fertility trajectories on depression, but indicate indirect linkages for both women and men. Associations are mediated by partnership history, social support, wealth, later-life smoking, and functional limitation. Associations between childhood disadvantage and later-life depression are partially mediated by fertility stressors. Results confirm the influence of life course experiences on depression at older ages and demonstrate the interlinked role of family and other life course pathways on later-life well-being. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 219-240 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1649450 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1649450 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:219-240 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Barbara S. Mensch Author-X-Name-First: Barbara S. Author-X-Name-Last: Mensch Author-Name: Monica J. Grant Author-X-Name-First: Monica J. Author-X-Name-Last: Grant Author-Name: Erica Soler-Hampejsek Author-X-Name-First: Erica Author-X-Name-Last: Soler-Hampejsek Author-Name: Christine A. Kelly Author-X-Name-First: Christine A. Author-X-Name-Last: Kelly Author-Name: Satvika Chalasani Author-X-Name-First: Satvika Author-X-Name-Last: Chalasani Author-Name: Paul C. Hewett Author-X-Name-First: Paul C. Author-X-Name-Last: Hewett Title: Does schooling protect sexual health? The association between three measures of education and STIs among adolescents in Malawi Abstract: While multiple studies have documented shifting educational gradients in HIV prevalence, less attention has been given to the effect of school participation and academic skills on infection during adolescence. Using the Malawi Schooling and Adolescent Study, a longitudinal survey that followed 2,649 young people aged 14–17 at baseline from 2007 to 2013, we estimate the effect of three education variables: school enrolment, grade attainment, and academic skills—numeracy and Chichewa literacy—on herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and HIV incidence using interval-censored survival analysis. We find that grade attainment is significantly associated with lower rates of both HSV-2 and HIV among girls, and is negatively associated with HSV-2 but not HIV among boys. School enrolment and academic skills are not significantly associated with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) for boys or girls in our final models. Efforts to encourage school progression in high-prevalence settings in sub-Saharan Africa could well reduce, or at least postpone, acquisition of STIs. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 241-261 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1656282 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1656282 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:241-261 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Felix M. Muchomba Author-X-Name-First: Felix M. Author-X-Name-Last: Muchomba Author-Name: Sangeeta Chatterji Author-X-Name-First: Sangeeta Author-X-Name-Last: Chatterji Title: Disability among children of immigrants from India and China: Is there excess disability among girls? Abstract: We investigate whether there is excess morbidity among daughters of Indian or Chinese immigrants in the US by studying the prevalence of disability among children. We use data from the 2012–14 American Community Surveys on approximately 20,000 US-born children of Indian and Chinese immigrants. Children of US natives are used as a comparison group to account for innate differences in disability between the sexes. Results indicate that there is excess disability among daughters compared with sons among children of Chinese immigrants and children of immigrants from northern or western Indian states; this excess disability declines with younger age at arrival or longer exposure to the host country. Analysis using children of Filipino immigrants as an alternative comparison group yields similar excess disability rates for females.Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1762911 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 263-281 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1762911 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1762911 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:263-281 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Z. Guilmoto Author-X-Name-First: Christophe Z. Author-X-Name-Last: Guilmoto Author-Name: Fengqing Chao Author-X-Name-First: Fengqing Author-X-Name-Last: Chao Author-Name: Purushottam M. Kulkarni Author-X-Name-First: Purushottam M. Author-X-Name-Last: Kulkarni Title: On the estimation of female births missing due to prenatal sex selection Abstract: This research note is prompted by a paper by Kashyap (Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality? Population Studies 73(1): 57–78). Kashyap’s paper, which provides 40 original estimates of missing female births, relies on an alternative definition of missing female births, leading to estimates of about half the magnitude of other estimates. There appears, therefore, a real need to take stock of the concept of missing female births widely used by statisticians around the world for assessing the demographic consequences of prenatal sex selection. This research note starts with a brief review of the history of the concept and the difference between Amartya Sen’s original method and the alternative method found elsewhere to compute missing female births. We then put forward three different arguments (deterministic and probabilistic approaches, and consistency analysis) in support of the original computation procedure based on the number of observed male births and the expected sex ratio at birth. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 283-289 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1762912 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1762912 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:283-289 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Title: The ‘Population Problem’ in Pacific Asia Journal: Population Studies Pages: 291-292 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720177 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720177 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:291-292 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Steve Smallwood Author-X-Name-First: Steve Author-X-Name-Last: Smallwood Title: Analytical Family Demography Journal: Population Studies Pages: 292-294 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720175 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720175 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:292-294 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Lesley A. Hall Author-X-Name-First: Lesley A. Author-X-Name-Last: Hall Title: The Hidden Affliction: Sexually Transmitted Infections and Infertility in History Journal: Population Studies Pages: 294-296 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720179 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1720179 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:294-296 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Leslie King Author-X-Name-First: Leslie Author-X-Name-Last: King Title: Nationalizing Sex: Fertility, Fear, and Power Journal: Population Studies Pages: 296-298 Issue: 2 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 6 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1739195 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1739195 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:2:p:296-298 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marcus Ebeling Author-X-Name-First: Marcus Author-X-Name-Last: Ebeling Author-Name: Roland Rau Author-X-Name-First: Roland Author-X-Name-Last: Rau Author-Name: Annette Baudisch Author-X-Name-First: Annette Author-X-Name-Last: Baudisch Title: Rectangularization of the survival curve reconsidered: The maximum inner rectangle approach Abstract: Rectangularization of the survival curve—a key analytical framework in mortality research—relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the ‘maximum inner rectangle approach’ (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan. Inner rectangularization captures progress in lifespan equality relative to progress in mean lifespan. Empirical applications show that both processes have generally increased since 1850. However, inner rectangularization has displayed country-specific patterns since the onset of sustained old-age mortality declines. Results from separating premature and old-age mortality, using the MIRA, suggest there has been a switch from reducing premature deaths to extending the premature age range; a shift potentially signalling a looming limit to the share of premature deaths. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 369-379 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1414299 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2017.1414299 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:369-379 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alice Goisis Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Goisis Author-Name: Daniel C. Schneider Author-X-Name-First: Daniel C. Author-X-Name-Last: Schneider Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: Secular changes in the association between advanced maternal age and the risk of low birth weight: A cross-cohort comparison in the UK Abstract: Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child health and advanced maternal age. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus on this issue is changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at an advanced age. This is the first study to investigate secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers and in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies, covering births from 1958 to 2001, and use low birth weight (LBW) as a marker for child health. We find that across successive birth cohorts, the negative association between advanced maternal age and LBW becomes progressively weaker; and that this pattern is partially explained by secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers. Our results suggest that associations between maternal age and child outcomes are tied to a specific population and point in time. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 381-397 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1442584 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1442584 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:381-397 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Author-Name: Emma Lundholm Author-X-Name-First: Emma Author-X-Name-Last: Lundholm Author-Name: Gunnar Malmberg Author-X-Name-First: Gunnar Author-X-Name-Last: Malmberg Title: Is spatial mobility on the rise or in decline? An order-specific analysis of the migration of young adults in Sweden Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility over time. Research on ‘new mobilities’ suggests increasing movement of individuals, technology, and information. By contrast, studies of internal migration report declining spatial mobility in recent decades. Using longitudinal register data from Sweden, we calculate annual order-specific migration rates to investigate the spatial mobility of young adults over the last three decades. We standardize mobility rates for educational enrolment, educational level, family status, and place of residence to determine how much changes in individuals’ life domains explain changes in mobility. Young adults’ migration rates increased significantly in the 1990s; although all order-specific migration rates increased, first migration rates increased the most. Changes in population composition, particularly increased enrolment in higher education, accounted for much of the elevated spatial mobility in the 1990s. The analysis supports neither ever increasing mobility nor a long-term rise in rootedness among young adults in Sweden. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 323-337 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1451554 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1451554 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:323-337 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Yan Yu Author-X-Name-First: Yan Author-X-Name-Last: Yu Title: Cohort trends in duration of obesity in the United States, 1925–89: Estimates from cross-sectional data Abstract: This paper introduces the metric ‘mean duration of obesity’ to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population. A procedure was developed to estimate duration from periodic cross-sectional surveys. For annual cohorts born in the United States between 1925 and 1989, I estimated a logit model to derive age-cohort-specific probabilities of overweight and obesity (body mass index 25 to <30 and $\ge$≥30, respectively), and applied life table techniques to convert these into person-years. Duration of obesity by age 50 increased fourfold from 3.58 to 14.35 years. The rate of increase was stronger across the 1945–79 and 1980–89 cohorts than the 1925–44 cohorts. The trend was driven by increased risks of obesity among children: age groups under 20 were responsible for 31 per cent of the duration increase between the 1930 and 1960 cohorts, but 72 per cent between the 1960 and 1985 cohorts. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 399-410 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1467032 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1467032 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:399-410 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: James Raymer Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer Author-Name: Arkadiusz Wiśniowski Author-X-Name-First: Arkadiusz Author-X-Name-Last: Wiśniowski Title: Applying and testing a forecasting model for age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration Abstract: International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia. The performances of the forecasts are compared and assessed with the observed time-series data. The results demonstrate the generality and flexibility of the model and of Bayesian inference for forecasting migration, as well as for further research. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 339-355 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1469784 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1469784 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:339-355 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Danielle Gauvreau Author-X-Name-First: Danielle Author-X-Name-Last: Gauvreau Author-Name: Patrick Sabourin Author-X-Name-First: Patrick Author-X-Name-Last: Sabourin Author-Name: Samuel Vézina Author-X-Name-First: Samuel Author-X-Name-Last: Vézina Author-Name: Benoît Laplante Author-X-Name-First: Benoît Author-X-Name-Last: Laplante Title: The mechanics of the baby boom: Unveiling the role of the epidemiologic transition Abstract: Recent research on the baby boom and its causes has shown that common explanations, such as the recuperation of births following the Great Depression or Second World War, are not sufficient to account for the phenomenon. However, that research has stressed the role of increasing nuptiality. In this paper, we argue that the increase in survivorship of children and young people that resulted from the epidemiologic transition accounted for a large portion of the increased number of births during the baby boom. We use a microsimulation model to assess the respective roles of mortality, nuptiality, fertility, and immigration on the size and dynamics of the boom in Quebec, Canada. Results show that decreasing mortality contributed significantly to the baby boom, along with immigration and nuptiality changes, while fertility rates attenuated the phenomenon. These results substantiate the hypothesis that the epidemiologic transition was an important cause of the baby boom. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 305-321 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1490450 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1490450 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:305-321 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Van Bavel Author-X-Name-First: Jan Author-X-Name-Last: Van Bavel Author-Name: Martin Klesment Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Klesment Author-Name: Eva Beaujouan Author-X-Name-First: Eva Author-X-Name-Last: Beaujouan Author-Name: Zuzanna Brzozowska Author-X-Name-First: Zuzanna Author-X-Name-Last: Brzozowska Author-Name: Author-X-Name-First: Author-X-Name-Last: Author-Name: Allan Puur Author-X-Name-First: Allan Author-X-Name-Last: Puur Author-Name: David Reher Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Reher Author-Name: Miguel Requena Author-X-Name-First: Miguel Author-X-Name-Last: Requena Author-Name: Glenn Sandström Author-X-Name-First: Glenn Author-X-Name-Last: Sandström Author-Name: Tomáš Sobotka Author-X-Name-First: Tomáš Author-X-Name-Last: Sobotka Author-Name: Kryštof Zeman Author-X-Name-First: Kryštof Author-X-Name-Last: Zeman Title: Seeding the gender revolution: Women’s education and cohort fertility among the baby boom generations Abstract: In Europe and the United States, women’s educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women’s education. Over the 1901–45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two children rose steadily and homogeneity in family sizes increased. Progression to a third child and beyond declined in all the countries, continuing the ongoing trends of the fertility transition. In countries with a baby boom, and especially among women with post-primary education, this was compensated for by decreasing childlessness and increasing progression to a second child. These changes, linked to earlier stages of the fertility transition, laid the foundations for later fertility patterns associated with the gender revolution. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 283-304 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1498223 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1498223 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:283-304 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Annemarie Ernsten Author-X-Name-First: Annemarie Author-X-Name-Last: Ernsten Author-Name: David McCollum Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: McCollum Author-Name: Zhiqiang Feng Author-X-Name-First: Zhiqiang Author-X-Name-Last: Feng Author-Name: Dawn Everington Author-X-Name-First: Dawn Author-X-Name-Last: Everington Author-Name: Zengyi Huang Author-X-Name-First: Zengyi Author-X-Name-Last: Huang Title: Using linked administrative and census data for migration research Abstract: Migration is a core component of population change and is both a symptom and a cause of major economic and social phenomena. However, data limitations mean that gaps remain in our understanding of the patterns and processes of mobility. This is particularly the case for internal migration, which remains under-researched, despite being quantitatively much more significant than international migration. Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, this paper evaluates the potential value of General Practitioner administrative health data from the National Health Service that can be linked into census-based longitudinal studies for advancing migration research. Issues relating to data quality are considered and, using the illustrative example of internal migration by country of birth, an argument is developed contending that such approaches can offer novel ways of comprehending internal migration, by shedding additional light on the nature of both movers and the moves that they make. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 357-367 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1502463 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1502463 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:357-367 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Correction Journal: Population Studies Pages: 411-411 Issue: 3 Volume: 72 Year: 2018 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2018.1518201 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2018.1518201 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:72:y:2018:i:3:p:411-411 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: David Reher Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Reher Author-Name: Miguel Requena Author-X-Name-First: Miguel Author-X-Name-Last: Requena Title: Revisiting mid-twentieth-century fertility shifts from a global perspective Abstract: In the developed world, the historic process of fertility decline was interrupted by an unexpected period of increasing fertility called the baby boom. Recent studies suggest that a similar trend change in fertility may have occurred in many less developed nations at approximately the same time. Using cohort fertility data for 26 less developed countries from around the world taken from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International (IPUMS-I), this paper aims to ascertain the extent to which these trend changes occurred in a large sample of countries around the world. It offers convincing proof of the existence of an upward shift in fertility among cohorts born during the 1930s, which was common to many countries in the less developed world. Despite many similarities with the baby boom, there are also differences stemming, mostly, from its timing with respect to the demographic transition. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 299-314 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1783454 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1783454 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:299-314 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Julia Hellstrand Author-X-Name-First: Julia Author-X-Name-Last: Hellstrand Author-Name: Jessica Nisén Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Nisén Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: All-time low period fertility in Finland: Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications Abstract: The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010–17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30–39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85–1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 315-329 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1750677 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1750677 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:315-329 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Liliana Andriano Author-X-Name-First: Liliana Author-X-Name-Last: Andriano Author-Name: Julia Behrman Author-X-Name-First: Julia Author-X-Name-Last: Behrman Title: The effects of growing-season drought on young women’s life course transitions in a sub-Saharan context Abstract: In spite of the vast importance of weather shocks for population processes, limited work has investigated the micro-level processes through which weather shocks influence the transition to adulthood in low-income contexts. This paper provides a conceptual overview and empirical investigation of how weather shocks impact the timing, sequencing, and characteristics of young women’s life course transitions in low-income rural settings. Drawing on the case of Malawi, we combine repeated cross-sections of georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey data with georeferenced climate and crop calendar data to assess how growing-season drought shocks affect young women’s life course transitions. Discrete-time event history analyses indicate that in this context, exposure to growing-season drought in adolescence has an accelerating effect on young women’s transitions into first unions—both marriage and cohabitation—and into first births within unions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 331-350 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1819551 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1819551 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:331-350 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Olufunke Fayehun Author-X-Name-First: Olufunke Author-X-Name-Last: Fayehun Author-Name: Olutobi Adekunle Sanuade Author-X-Name-First: Olutobi Adekunle Author-X-Name-Last: Sanuade Author-Name: Anthony Idowu Ajayi Author-X-Name-First: Anthony Idowu Author-X-Name-Last: Ajayi Author-Name: Uche Isiugo-Abanihe Author-X-Name-First: Uche Author-X-Name-Last: Isiugo-Abanihe Title: Ethnicity, sex composition of living children, and unrealized fertility in Nigeria Abstract: While studies in high-income countries have shown that failure to achieve fertility desires is significantly associated with unfavourable personal circumstances, there is barely any empirical evidence on the factors that influence the pattern of unrealized fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, this paper investigates the roles of ethnicity and the sex composition of living children on unrealized fertility in Nigeria. The results show that the odds of having unrealized fertility were higher among Hausa–Fulani women compared with women of other ethnic groups in Nigeria. Also, having daughters only (no sons) was associated with higher odds of unrealized fertility, after controlling for other important covariates. The findings suggest that cultural norms and pronatalism significantly influence the fertility desires of women in Nigeria, even at the end of their reproductive lifespan. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 351-361 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1779333 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1779333 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:351-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Baranowska-Rataj Author-Name: Martin Kolk Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Kolk Author-Name: Anneli Ivarsson Author-X-Name-First: Anneli Author-X-Name-Last: Ivarsson Title: Interpregnancy intervals and perinatal and child health in Sweden: A comparison within families and across social groups Abstract: A large body of research has shown that children born after especially short or long birth intervals experience an elevated risk of poor perinatal outcomes, but recent work suggests this may be explained by confounding by unobserved family characteristics. We use Swedish population data on cohorts born 1981–2010 and sibling fixed effects to examine whether the length of the birth interval preceding the index child influences the risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, and hospitalization during childhood. We also present analyses stratified by salient social characteristics, such as maternal educational level and maternal country of birth. We find few effects of birth intervals on our outcomes, except for very short intervals (less than seven months) and very long intervals (>60 months). We find few differences in the patterns by maternal educational level or maternal country of origin after stratifying by the mother’s highest educational attainment. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 363-378 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1714701 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1714701 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:363-378 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Priyanka Dixit Author-X-Name-First: Priyanka Author-X-Name-Last: Dixit Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Author-Name: K. S. James Author-X-Name-First: K. S. Author-X-Name-Last: James Title: Sex differences in child health and healthcare: A reappraisal for India Abstract: India has an unenviable reputation as one of the world’s most gender disparate countries. Previous studies of sex bias in childhood have shown large differences between Indian boys and girls in immunization and curative healthcare, but little difference in health status as indicated by anaemia and stunting. India has changed rapidly in past decades, hence we reappraise the situation with the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015–16). We found no evidence of sex differentials in immunization coverage but a small degree of discrimination in favour of boys in medical treatment for common symptoms of infection. This discrimination was no greater in the North and Central regions of India, where severe excess mortality among female children persists. Sex differences in anaemia and stunting were small, with no regional pattern. We found no evidence that healthcare or health status of girls was influenced by the presence of other daughters in the family. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 379-398 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1807042 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1807042 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:379-398 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Stephen Jivraj Author-X-Name-First: Stephen Author-X-Name-Last: Jivraj Author-Name: Alissa Goodman Author-X-Name-First: Alissa Author-X-Name-Last: Goodman Author-Name: Benedetta Pongiglione Author-X-Name-First: Benedetta Author-X-Name-Last: Pongiglione Author-Name: George B. Ploubidis Author-X-Name-First: George B. Author-X-Name-Last: Ploubidis Title: Living longer but not necessarily healthier: The joint progress of health and mortality in the working-age population of England Abstract: Despite improvements in life expectancy, there is uncertainty on whether the increase in years of healthy life expectancy has kept pace. In this paper we explore whether there is empirical support for the expansion of morbidity hypothesis in the population aged 25–64 living in England. Nationally representative cohorts born between 1945 and 1980 are constructed from repeated annual cross-sections of the Health Survey for England, 1991–2014. Later-born cohorts at a given age have the same or higher prevalence of self-reported bad general health and long-term illness, self-reported high blood pressure (in men), self-reported and objectively-measured diabetes, circulatory illnesses, clinical hypertension, and overweight BMI. We also find that healthy life expectancies (in the sense of absence of each of these problems) at age 25 have increased at a slower pace than life expectancy between 1993 and 2013. Our findings lend support to the expansion of morbidity hypothesis and point to increased future demand for specific healthcare services at younger ages. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 399-414 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1767297 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1767297 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:399-414 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sarah E. Patterson Author-X-Name-First: Sarah E. Author-X-Name-Last: Patterson Author-Name: Rachel Margolis Author-X-Name-First: Rachel Author-X-Name-Last: Margolis Author-Name: Ashton M. Verdery Author-X-Name-First: Ashton M. Author-X-Name-Last: Verdery Title: Family embeddedness and older adult mortality in the United States Abstract: Do different operationalizations of family structure offer different understandings of the links between family structure and older adult mortality? Using the American Health and Retirement Study (N = 29,665), we examine mortality risks by three measures of family structure: whether respondents have different family statuses (e.g. married vs. unmarried), volume of family members available (e.g. having one vs. two living immediate family members), and family embeddedness (e.g. having neither spouse nor child vs. having spouse but no child). We focus on three kin types: partner/spouse, children, and siblings. We find that differences in empirical estimates across measures of family structure are not dramatic, but that family embeddedness can show some additional heterogeneity in mortality patterns over family status variables or the volume of ties. This paper tests different ways of operationalizing family structure to study mortality outcomes and advances our understanding of how family functions as a key social determinant of health. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 415-435 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1817529 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1817529 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:415-435 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francesco Grippo Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Grippo Author-Name: Aline Désesquelles Author-X-Name-First: Aline Author-X-Name-Last: Désesquelles Author-Name: Marilena Pappagallo Author-X-Name-First: Marilena Author-X-Name-Last: Pappagallo Author-Name: Luisa Frova Author-X-Name-First: Luisa Author-X-Name-Last: Frova Author-Name: Viviana Egidi Author-X-Name-First: Viviana Author-X-Name-Last: Egidi Author-Name: France Meslé Author-X-Name-First: France Author-X-Name-Last: Meslé Title: Multi-morbidity and frailty at death: A new classification of death records for an ageing world Abstract: Mortality statistics based on underlying cause of death are challenged by increased life expectancy and the growing share of population reaching ages associated with frequent multi-morbidity (with death likely resulting from interactions between multiple diseases). We provide a novel way of analysing causes of death: accounting for all causes mentioned on death certificates and summarizing this information along two dimensions emblematic of ageing populations—multi-morbidity and frailty. We implement this classification for all deaths at ages 50+ in Italy in 2014. Multi-morbid processes represent the majority of deaths, rising from 43 per cent at ages 50–54 to 63 per cent at ages 85–89. Multi-morbidity at death is more frequent among males, although age patterns are identical for both sexes. About one in four deaths involves frailty symptoms, rising to 45 per cent at ages 95+. Mortality rates involving frailty are very similar for both sexes.Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1820558 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 437-449 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1820558 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1820558 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:437-449 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Andrea Monti Author-X-Name-First: Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Monti Author-Name: Sven Drefahl Author-X-Name-First: Sven Author-X-Name-Last: Drefahl Author-Name: Eleonora Mussino Author-X-Name-First: Eleonora Author-X-Name-Last: Mussino Author-Name: Juho Härkönen Author-X-Name-First: Juho Author-X-Name-Last: Härkönen Title: Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates Abstract: Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage—individuals registered but not living in a country—is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 451-469 Issue: 3 Volume: 74 Year: 2020 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:451-469 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Thanks to reviewers Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1886728 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1886728 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Piera Bello Author-X-Name-First: Piera Author-X-Name-Last: Bello Author-Name: Vincenzo Galasso Author-X-Name-First: Vincenzo Author-X-Name-Last: Galasso Title: The politics of ageing and retirement: Evidence from Swiss referenda Abstract: Ageing threatens the financial sustainability of pay-as-you-go pension systems, since it increases the share of retirees to workers. An often-advocated policy response is to increase retirement age. Ironically, however, the political support for this policy may actually be hindered by population ageing. Using Swiss administrative voting data at municipal level from pension reform referenda (and individual survey data), we show in fact that individuals close to retirement tend to oppose policies that postpone retirement, whereas younger and older individuals are more favourable. The current process of population ageing and the associated increase in the size of the cohort of individuals close to retirement may partially explain why a pension reform that increased retirement age for women was approved in two referenda in 1995 and 1998, while a reform that proposed a similar increase in women’s retirement age was defeated in a 2017 referendum. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 3-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1841270 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1841270 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:3-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arnstein Aassve Author-X-Name-First: Arnstein Author-X-Name-Last: Aassve Author-Name: Marco Le Moglie Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Le Moglie Author-Name: Letizia Mencarini Author-X-Name-First: Letizia Author-X-Name-Last: Mencarini Title: Trust and fertility in uncertain times Abstract: Recent studies have shown higher uncertainty to be associated with fertility decline. This study considers the role of social trust as a coping mechanism when general uncertainty increases. We analyse the fertility data of Italian provinces from 2004 to 2013, thereby incorporating the period of economic recession, which unexpectedly and exogenously increased uncertainty across the population. We find a robust and significantly positive impact of social trust on fertility, which is stronger among younger age groups. Moreover, we find that the buffer effect of trust decreases with the level of public childcare provision, suggesting that low trust endowments may be counterbalanced through public policy. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 19-36 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1742927 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1742927 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:19-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Md Juel Rana Author-X-Name-First: Md Juel Author-X-Name-Last: Rana Author-Name: John Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Author-Name: T.V. Sekher Author-X-Name-First: T.V. Author-X-Name-Last: Sekher Author-Name: Sabu S. Padmadas Author-X-Name-First: Sabu S. Author-X-Name-Last: Padmadas Title: Disentangling the effects of reproductive behaviours and fertility preferences on child growth in India Abstract: We analysed population data from the 2015–16 National Family Health Survey to disentangle the intricate underlying effects of reproductive behaviours and fertility preferences on child growth. We expected birth interval length to be more strongly associated with stunting than sibsize and these effects to be moderated by whether the child was wanted or unintended (mistimed/unwanted). Regression analyses showed strong and equal effects of short birth interval and sibsize on stunting, when adjusted for potential confounders and unobserved between-mother heterogeneity. There were no statistical associations between stunting and mistiming/unwantedness of index children, suggesting the absence of discrimination against such children. We conclude that while fertility preferences have no effect, reproductive behaviours exert significant influence on child growth. Sibsize has been falling for many years in India but birth interval lengths have remained largely unchanged. The results underscore the need for strengthening uptake of reversible contraceptives to enable longer birth intervals. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 37-50 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1826564 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1826564 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:37-50 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Berenike Thoma Author-X-Name-First: Berenike Author-X-Name-Last: Thoma Author-Name: Nikkil Sudharsanan Author-X-Name-First: Nikkil Author-X-Name-Last: Sudharsanan Author-Name: Omar Karlsson Author-X-Name-First: Omar Author-X-Name-Last: Karlsson Author-Name: William Joe Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Joe Author-Name: S.V. Subramanian Author-X-Name-First: S.V. Author-X-Name-Last: Subramanian Author-Name: Jan-Walter De Neve Author-X-Name-First: Jan-Walter Author-X-Name-Last: De Neve Title: Children’s education and parental old-age health: Evidence from a population-based, nationally representative study in India Abstract: Previous research has documented intergenerational transmission of human capital from children to parents. Less is known, however, about heterogeneity in this ‘upward transmission’ in low-resource settings. We examine whether co-resident adult children’s education is associated with improved health among older parents in India, using nationally representative data from the 2014 Indian National Sample Survey. Parents of children with tertiary education had a lower probability of reporting poor health than parents of children with less than primary education. The benefits of children’s education persisted after controlling for economic factors, suggesting that non-pecuniary pathways—such as health knowledge or skills—may play an important role. The association was more pronounced among economically dependent parents and those living in the North and West regions. Taken together, our results point to a strong positive association between children’s education and parental health, the role of non-pecuniary pathways, and the importance of subnational heterogeneity in India. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 51-66 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1775873 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1775873 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:51-66 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mikołaj Szołtysek Author-X-Name-First: Mikołaj Author-X-Name-Last: Szołtysek Author-Name: Bartosz Ogórek Author-X-Name-First: Bartosz Author-X-Name-Last: Ogórek Author-Name: Siegfried Gruber Author-X-Name-First: Siegfried Author-X-Name-Last: Gruber Title: Global and local correlations of Hajnal’s household formation markers in historical Europe: A cautionary tale Abstract: Previous scholarship has assumed global correlations between premarital service in husbandry, marriage age, the extent to which marriage coincided with the attainment of household headship, and the nuclear household structure. According to John Hajnal, these were the four core principles of historical household formation systems. However, whether such correlations applied universally across Europe remains uncertain. We test this possibility by applying both global and local (geographically weighted) measures of correlation to data for 256 rural populations from historical Europe. We demonstrate that local correlations diverge considerably from the global results. The mutual associations between household formation markers exhibit considerable spatial drifts and important spatial gradients, and the numbers of joint combinations of these associations far exceed those predicted by Hajnal. We argue that the global relationship patterns that Hajnal promoted may lead to incorrect interpretations of historical family systems, and may detract from our understanding of their actual mechanics. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 67-89 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1832252 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1832252 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:67-89 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Niels van den Berg Author-X-Name-First: Niels Author-X-Name-Last: van den Berg Author-Name: Ingrid K. van Dijk Author-X-Name-First: Ingrid K. Author-X-Name-Last: van Dijk Author-Name: Rick J. Mourits Author-X-Name-First: Rick J. Author-X-Name-Last: Mourits Author-Name: P. Eline Slagboom Author-X-Name-First: P. Eline Author-X-Name-Last: Slagboom Author-Name: Angelique A. P. O. Janssens Author-X-Name-First: Angelique A. P. O. Author-X-Name-Last: Janssens Author-Name: Kees Mandemakers Author-X-Name-First: Kees Author-X-Name-Last: Mandemakers Title: Families in comparison: An individual-level comparison of life-course and family reconstructions between population and vital event registers Abstract: It remains unknown how different types of sources affect the reconstruction of life courses and families in large-scale databases increasingly common in demographic research. Here, we compare family and life-course reconstructions for 495 individuals simultaneously present in two well-known Dutch data sets: LINKS, based on the Zeeland province’s full-population vital event registration data (passive registration), and the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), based on a national sample of birth certificates, with follow-up of individuals in population registers (active registration). We compare indicators of fertility, marriage, mortality, and occupational status, and conclude that reconstructions in the HSN and LINKS reflect each other well: LINKS provides more complete information on siblings and parents, whereas the HSN provides more complete life-course information. We conclude that life-course and family reconstructions based on linked passive registration of individuals constitute a reliable alternative to reconstructions based on active registration, if case selection is carefully considered. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 91-110 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 1 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1718186 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1718186 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:91-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Emmanuel Souza Author-X-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-X-Name-Last: Souza Title: Labour market incorporation of immigrant women in South Africa: Impacts of human capital and family structure Abstract: This paper examines the labour market incorporation of African-born immigrant women in South Africa using data from the 2011 Census. It investigates women’s labour force participation, employment prospects, and access to formal employment, assessing how human capital and household factors explain labour market decisions. Results underscore significant challenges to immigrant incorporation in South Africa. Not only are immigrants less likely to participate in the labour force than black South African women, but for those who participate, employment levels are lower. Although immigrants have an employment edge over South Africans once individual and household factors are held constant, immigrants are over-represented in informal jobs. Returns to human capital are also lower among foreign- than South-African–born women. Together, these results suggest a segmented pattern of incorporation for immigrant women in South Africa. Results by national origin emphasize the importance of egalitarianism and co-ethnic community characteristics in structuring women’s labour force participation. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 111-131 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1838601 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1838601 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:111-131 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Kenneth Aarskaug Wiik Author-X-Name-First: Kenneth Aarskaug Author-X-Name-Last: Wiik Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth Author-X-Name-First: Lars Author-X-Name-Last: Dommermuth Author-Name: Jennifer A. Holland Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer A. Author-X-Name-Last: Holland Title: Partnership transitions among the children of immigrants in Norway: The role of partner choice Abstract: The family life courses of immigrants and their descendants have been widely studied as indicators of societal integration. But largely absent are investigations into the role of cohabitation in the family lives of these subpopulations. Using Norwegian register data on individuals who were either native born or who immigrated before age 18, we analyse the formation of first cohabiting and marital unions. Next, we compare associations between endogamous or exogamous partner choice and transitions from these first unions. Results showed that the children of immigrants were less likely to cohabit endogamously, but overall more likely to cohabit exogamously and to marry than Norwegians without a migration background. Endogamous migrant-background cohabiting unions were least likely to dissolve, whereas cohabiting couples involving one or two majority partners were less marriage prone than endogamous migrant-background couples. Similarly, among those married, endogamous migrant-background couples were less likely to divorce than their exogamous counterparts. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 133-152 Issue: 1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1851749 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1851749 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:133-152 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ester Lazzari Author-X-Name-First: Ester Author-X-Name-Last: Lazzari Author-Name: Ryohei Mogi Author-X-Name-First: Ryohei Author-X-Name-Last: Mogi Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Title: Educational composition and parity contribution to completed cohort fertility change in low-fertility settings Abstract: Extensive literature has documented the contribution of rising women’s education to decreases in completed cohort fertility (CCF). A key question related to the education–fertility relationship is to what extent the decrease in fertility is the result of changes in educational composition vs changes in fertility behaviours within educational categories. This study quantified the effect of educational expansion on fertility levels by decomposing the overall change in CCF into educational composition and education-specific fertility, and explored the changes in parity-specific components of CCF by education for cohorts born between 1940 and 1970. The results show that, despite the decline in CCF being caused mostly by changes in fertility behaviours, educational composition had a considerable impact for some cohorts. The decline in third and higher-order births played a central role in the fall in CCF across educational groups, while the effects of transitions to first and second births varied substantially. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 153-167 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1895291 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1895291 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:153-167 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hendrik P. van Dalen Author-X-Name-First: Hendrik P. Author-X-Name-Last: van Dalen Author-Name: Kène Henkens Author-X-Name-First: Kène Author-X-Name-Last: Henkens Title: When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world Abstract: When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals’ policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 289-303 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1784986 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:289-303 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anne Morse Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Morse Author-Name: Nancy Luke Author-X-Name-First: Nancy Author-X-Name-Last: Luke Title: Foetal loss and feminine sex ratios at birth in sub-Saharan Africa Abstract: A wealth of demographic research has explored the determinants of sex ratios at birth, but few studies have considered the role of foetal loss (spontaneous abortion), in producing feminine sex ratios. One challenge is measuring the occurrence of foetal loss, which is difficult to recognize and report in survey research. This study uses the length of the birth interval as a proxy for foetal loss; foetal loss restarts the clock on time to conception and lengthens the birth interval. We use Demographic and Health Survey data on second births to women in 17 sub-Saharan African countries. Results show that longer second birth intervals are significantly related to lower odds of a male second birth and to feminine sex ratios at birth. These findings suggest that high levels of foetal loss, which could signal underlying poor maternal health in a population, have dramatic effects on the sex ratio at birth. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 239-254 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1877793 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1877793 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:239-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sumit Agarwal Author-X-Name-First: Sumit Author-X-Name-Last: Agarwal Author-Name: Wenlan Qian Author-X-Name-First: Wenlan Author-X-Name-Last: Qian Author-Name: Tien Foo Sing Author-X-Name-First: Tien Foo Author-X-Name-Last: Sing Author-Name: Poh Lin Tan Author-X-Name-First: Poh Lin Author-X-Name-Last: Tan Title: Fortunes of Dragons: Cohort size effects on life outcomes Abstract: This paper examines the long-term effects of birth cohort size on life outcomes. Using administrative data from Singapore, we study the outcomes of large birth cohorts created by the Chinese superstitious practice of zodiac birth timing, where parents prefer to give birth in the year of the Dragon. This practice is followed exclusively by the Chinese majority, with no similar patterns detected among non-Chinese minorities, allowing us to differentiate cohort size effects from confounding year-of-birth effects. Despite government efforts to increase public educational resources for these cohorts, Chinese Dragons earn lower incomes and are less likely to gain admission to national universities. There is also evidence of negative externalities on non-practising populations who happen to enter the labour market at the same time as Chinese Dragons. Our analysis suggests that the adverse life outcomes are not due to selection, but rather reflect the aggregate resource implications of birth cohort size.Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 191-207 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1864458 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:191-207 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bruno Masquelier Author-X-Name-First: Bruno Author-X-Name-Last: Masquelier Author-Name: Mufaro Kanyangarara Author-X-Name-First: Mufaro Author-X-Name-Last: Kanyangarara Author-Name: Gilles Pison Author-X-Name-First: Gilles Author-X-Name-Last: Pison Author-Name: Almamy Malick Kanté Author-X-Name-First: Almamy Malick Author-X-Name-Last: Kanté Author-Name: Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye Author-X-Name-First: Cheikh Tidiane Author-X-Name-Last: Ndiaye Author-Name: Laetitia Douillot Author-X-Name-First: Laetitia Author-X-Name-Last: Douillot Author-Name: Géraldine Duthé Author-X-Name-First: Géraldine Author-X-Name-Last: Duthé Author-Name: Cheikh Sokhna Author-X-Name-First: Cheikh Author-X-Name-Last: Sokhna Author-Name: Valérie Delaunay Author-X-Name-First: Valérie Author-X-Name-Last: Delaunay Author-Name: Stéphane Helleringer Author-X-Name-First: Stéphane Author-X-Name-Last: Helleringer Title: Errors in reported ages and dates in surveys of adult mortality: A record linkage study in Niakhar (Senegal) Abstract: Sibling survival histories are a major source of adult mortality estimates in countries with incomplete death registration. We evaluate age and date reporting errors in sibling histories collected during a validation study in the Niakhar Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Senegal). Participants were randomly assigned to either the Demographic and Health Survey questionnaire or a questionnaire incorporating an event history calendar, recall cues, and increased probing strategies. We linked 60–62 per cent of survey reports of siblings to the reference database using manual and probabilistic approaches. Both questionnaires showed high sensitivity (>96 per cent) and specificity (>97 per cent) in recording siblings’ vital status. Respondents underestimated the age of living siblings, and age at and time since death of deceased siblings. These reporting errors introduced downward biases in mortality estimates. The revised questionnaire improved reporting of age of living siblings but not of age at or timing of deaths. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 269-287 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1854332 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1854332 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:269-287 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ilya Kashnitsky Author-X-Name-First: Ilya Author-X-Name-Last: Kashnitsky Author-Name: Joop De Beer Author-X-Name-First: Joop Author-X-Name-Last: De Beer Author-Name: Leo Van Wissen Author-X-Name-First: Leo Author-X-Name-Last: Van Wissen Title: Unequally ageing regions of Europe: Exploring the role of urbanization Abstract: Since young adults tend to move from rural to urban regions, whereas older adults move from urban to rural regions, we may expect to see increasing differences in population ageing across urban and rural regions. This paper examines whether trends in population ageing across urban and rural NUTS-2 regions of the EU-27 have diverged over the period 2003–13. We use the methodological approach of convergence analysis, quite recently brought to demography from the field of economic research. Unlike classical beta and sigma approaches to convergence, we focus not on any single summary statistic of convergence, but rather analyse the whole cumulative distribution of regions. Such an approach helps to identify which specific group of regions is responsible for the major changes. Our results suggest that, despite expectations, there was no divergence in age structures between urban and rural regions; rather, divergence happened within each of the groups of regions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 221-237 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1788130 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1788130 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:221-237 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Brian Joseph Gillespie Author-X-Name-First: Brian Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Gillespie Author-Name: Clara H. Mulder Author-X-Name-First: Clara H. Author-X-Name-Last: Mulder Author-Name: Michael J. Thomas Author-X-Name-First: Michael J. Author-X-Name-Last: Thomas Title: Migration for family and labour market outcomes in Sweden Abstract: Using information on stated motives for migrating among working-age individuals in the 2007 Swedish Motives for Migration survey (N = 1,852), we use multinomial logistic regression to examine whether and how moves for family reasons are linked to labour market outcomes in ways that differ from migration initiated for other motives, including more overtly labour-related factors. The results indicate that family-based migration is associated with worse labour market outcomes than migration for employment or other reasons. Additionally, family-motivated migrants with co-resident children are more likely to experience labour market deterioration than those without children. Among those who were unemployed before moving, those who reported family as a motive for moving were significantly more likely to be employed after the move. These results help us better assess how families and social networks impact economic outcomes—negatively in some circumstances and positively in others. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 209-219 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1800068 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1800068 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:209-219 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Terje Skjerpen Author-X-Name-First: Terje Author-X-Name-Last: Skjerpen Author-Name: Marianne Tønnessen Author-X-Name-First: Marianne Author-X-Name-Last: Tønnessen Title: Using future age profiles to improve immigration projections Abstract: Young adults migrate more than older people. As populations in many countries get older, this may affect out-migration—and thus immigration to other countries. This is not usually accounted for in projections of future immigration, even though considerable ageing is expected globally. We show how United Nations projections of future age profiles in origin regions can be combined with those regions’ emigration rates by age group to improve national projections of immigration to a destination country, exemplified by Norway. Using various methods for projecting future migration, we show that projected immigration tends to be lower when taking expected ageing in origin regions into account. This may have a considerable effect on population projections: for Norway, taking changing age profiles in origin regions into account in immigration projections would have an effect on the projected population of Norway equivalent to that of reducing the fertility assumptions by 0.1 children per woman. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 255-267 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 5 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1794019 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1794019 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:255-267 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alyce Raybould Author-X-Name-First: Alyce Author-X-Name-Last: Raybould Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: Children of the (gender) revolution: A theoretical and empirical synthesis of how gendered division of labour influences fertility Abstract: Gender equity theories of fertility broadly predict that the lowest fertility in high-income settings will be seen in women facing a ‘dual burden’ of both paid and unpaid labour responsibilities, but that fertility will increase when male partners share domestic labour. Here we provide a critique of some gender equity theories of fertility in demography, and restate the hypothesis in terms of complementarity between partners. Further, we suggest authors use an interdisciplinary approach, such as integrating perspectives from evolutionary theory and the ‘Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour’ framework, to provide some consistency to this diverse literature. Building on this theoretical synthesis, we perform a systematic review of 95 pieces of analysis. This broadly supports the idea that fertility will be low where women face a dual burden, which is particularly evident among macro-level studies, micro-level analyses investigating progression to subsequent children, and studies which do not use gender role attitudes as an independent variable. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 169-190 Issue: 2 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1851748 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1851748 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:2:p:169-190 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Megan N. Reed Author-X-Name-First: Megan N. Author-X-Name-Last: Reed Title: Reproductive transitions and women’s status in Indian households Abstract: Using panel data, this study tracks the impact of reproductive transitions on women’s status in the household in India. Here, status refers to the social benefits that women experience by meeting societal expectations related to childbearing. The analysis shows that becoming a mother is associated with increased freedom of movement and access to enabling resources. The adoption of permanent contraception—a common life course event marking the end of childbearing in India—is associated with increased freedom of movement but has no association with changes in access to enabling resources. Household decision-making, another dimension of women’s status examined in the paper, is less dynamic over time and there is limited evidence of its association with reproductive transitions. The findings illustrate the tight linkages between household power dynamics and the life course in the South Asian context, and highlight the centrality of women’s role as mothers in determining their social position. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 325-341 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1904147 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1904147 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:325-341 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ragui Assaad Author-X-Name-First: Ragui Author-X-Name-Last: Assaad Author-Name: Caroline Krafft Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Krafft Author-Name: Dominique J. Rolando Author-X-Name-First: Dominique J. Author-X-Name-Last: Rolando Title: Evaluating the impact of housing market liberalization on the timing of marriage: Evidence from Egypt Abstract: The transition to adulthood around the world is increasingly characterized by young people’s desire to form independent households. Forming such households in Egypt requires buying or building a dwelling or obtaining a rental unit. Policies governing housing markets, such as rent control, and limited financing options have historically made access to housing for young couples challenging. In this paper, we use a difference-in-difference approach to evaluate how the liberalization of rental markets in Egypt affected the timing of marriage. We find that Egypt’s 1996 rental reforms accelerated marriages and led to a reversal in the trend of rising age at marriage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 343-361 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1914853 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1914853 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:343-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Martin Dribe Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Dribe Author-Name: Christopher D. Smith Author-X-Name-First: Christopher D. Author-X-Name-Last: Smith Title: Social class and fertility: A long-run analysis of Southern Sweden, 1922–2015 Abstract: This paper examines social class differences in fertility, using longitudinal micro-level data for a regional sample in Sweden, 1922–2015. Using discrete-time event history models, we estimated the association between social class and parity-specific duration to next birth, adjusting for household income in separate models. Social class was associated with fertility quite independently from income and the association was both parity-dependent and sex-specific. For transitions to parenthood, higher class position was associated with higher fertility for men and lower fertility for women before 1970, but then converged into a positive association for both sexes after 1990. For continued childbearing, a weak U-shaped relationship before 1947 turned into a positive relationship for second births and a negative relationship for higher-order births in the period after 1990. These patterns likely reflect broader changes in work–family compatibility and are connected to profound shifts in labour markets and institutional arrangements in twentieth-century Sweden. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 305-323 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1810746 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1810746 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:305-323 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alberto Palloni Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Palloni Author-Name: Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez Author-X-Name-First: Hiram Author-X-Name-Last: Beltrán-Sánchez Author-Name: Guido Pinto Author-X-Name-First: Guido Author-X-Name-Last: Pinto Title: Estimation of older-adult mortality from information distorted by systematic age misreporting Abstract: Testing theories about human senescence and longevity demands accurate information on older-adult mortality; this is rare in low- to middle-income countries where raw data may be distorted by defective completeness and systematic age misreporting. For this reason, such populations are frequently excluded from empirical tests of mortality and longevity theories, thus limiting their reach, as they reflect only a small and selected human mortality experience. In this paper we formulate an integrated method to compute estimates of older-adult mortality when vital registration and population counts are defective due to inaccurate coverage and/or systematic age misreporting. The procedure is validated with a simulation study that identifies a strategy to compute adjustments, which, under some assumptions, performs quite well. While the paper focuses on Latin American and Caribbean countries, the method is quite general and, with additional information and some model reformulation, could be applied to other populations with similar problems. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 403-420 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1918752 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1918752 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:403-420 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Emily Treleaven Author-X-Name-First: Emily Author-X-Name-Last: Treleaven Author-Name: Toan Ngoc Pham Author-X-Name-First: Toan Ngoc Author-X-Name-Last: Pham Author-Name: Anh Duy Nguyen Author-X-Name-First: Anh Duy Author-X-Name-Last: Nguyen Author-Name: Nadia Diamond-Smith Author-X-Name-First: Nadia Author-X-Name-Last: Diamond-Smith Title: The list experiment: An approach to measuring stigmatized behaviours related to sex-selective abortion Abstract: Vietnam reports one of the highest levels of abortion globally and an increasingly skewed sex ratio at birth. Abortion and related stigmatized behaviours are notoriously difficult to measure, yet understanding women’s ability and willingness to engage in sex selection is of interest to demographers and policymakers alike. We piloted the list experiment, an indirect questioning method, to estimate the prevalence of prenatal sex determination and sex-selective abortion. Respondents reported the total number of items they had engaged in from a list, reducing non-response and incentives to under-report. Among 900 women sampled at two hospitals in Hanoi, we estimated a high prevalence of prenatal sex determination. We found a low prevalence of sex-selective abortion, but higher prevalence among specific parity and children’s sex composition subgroups. Responses to knowledge and attitudinal questions underscored women’s perceived stigma around sex-selective abortion, suggesting the list experiment is a potentially useful tool for studying son preference. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 363-380 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1900589 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1900589 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:363-380 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Simon Gregson Author-X-Name-First: Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Gregson Author-Name: Constance Nyamukapa Author-X-Name-First: Constance Author-X-Name-Last: Nyamukapa Title: Did sexual behaviour differences between HIV infection and treatment groups offset the preventative biological effects of ART roll-out in Zimbabwe? Abstract: Declines in HIV incidence have been slower than expected during the roll-out of antiretroviral treatment (ART) services in sub-Saharan African populations suffering generalized epidemics. Using data from a population-based, open cohort HIV sero-survey (2004–13), we found evidence for initial reductions in sexual activity and multiple sexual partnerships, followed by increases during the period of ART scale-up in areas of high HIV prevalence in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe. Recent population-level increases in condom use were also recorded, but largely reflected high use by the rapidly growing proportion of HIV-infected individuals on treatment. Sexual risk behaviour increased in susceptible uninfected individuals and in untreated (and therefore more infectious) HIV-infected men, which may have slowed the decline in HIV incidence in this area. Intensified primary HIV prevention programmes, together with strengthened risk screening, referral, and support services following HIV testing, could help to maximize the impact of ‘test-and-treat’ programmes in reducing new infections. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 457-476 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1874043 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1874043 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:457-476 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Guogui Huang Author-X-Name-First: Guogui Author-X-Name-Last: Huang Author-Name: Fei Guo Author-X-Name-First: Fei Author-X-Name-Last: Guo Author-Name: Gong Chen Author-X-Name-First: Gong Author-X-Name-Last: Chen Title: Multidimensional healthy life expectancy of the older population in China Abstract: Research on healthy life expectancy (HLE) that considers cognitive impairment has been inadequate, particularly in the context of less developed countries. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, our study fills this research gap by computing active life expectancy (ALE), cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy (CIFLE), and active and cognitive-impairment-free life expectancy (ACIFLE) for China’s older population, using multistate life tables. Results show that at age 60, the three life expectancies were 19.4 years (ALE), 9.5 years (CIFLE), and 8.8 years (ACIFLE) during the period 2011–13. HLE exhibits significant differentials by sex, urban/rural residence, educational level, marital status, and health status at age 60. Among China’s older people, males and those living in urban areas experience higher CIFLE, and those who live with a spouse, are more educated, and are healthy at age 60 expect more years in good health according to all three HLE measures.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1914854 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 421-442 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1914854 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1914854 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:421-442 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Samson Wasao Author-X-Name-First: Samson Author-X-Name-Last: Wasao Author-Name: Cory Anderson Author-X-Name-First: Cory Author-X-Name-Last: Anderson Author-Name: Christian Mpody Author-X-Name-First: Christian Author-X-Name-Last: Mpody Title: The persistently high fertility of a North American population: A 25-year restudy of parity among the Ohio Amish Abstract: Why do the North American Amish maintain high fertility when surrounding populations have nearly all completed the demographic transition? Using the same theoretical predictors and methods as a 1996 Population Studies paper, we explore fertility changes, specifically changes in mean parity, between 1988 and 2015 among one sizeable Amish population in Ohio. Findings suggest that wealth flow shifts (as measured by a decline in farming families) and institutional changes (reflected in Amish denominational gradations) help to explain a decline in mean parity from 5.3 to 4.85, while ideological pronatalism (represented by higher fertility among church leaders) helps to explain why fertility has not been more responsive to structural incentives to limit family size. While this restudy confirms the trend of a slow decline in Amish fertility, it also invites a more methodologically expansive inquiry into Amish fertility patterns. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 477-486 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1883725 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1883725 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:477-486 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anikó Bíró Author-X-Name-First: Anikó Author-X-Name-Last: Bíró Author-Name: Tamás Hajdu Author-X-Name-First: Tamás Author-X-Name-Last: Hajdu Author-Name: Gábor Kertesi Author-X-Name-First: Gábor Author-X-Name-Last: Kertesi Author-Name: Dániel Prinz Author-X-Name-First: Dániel Author-X-Name-Last: Prinz Title: Life expectancy inequalities in Hungary over 25 years: The role of avoidable deaths Abstract: Using mortality registers and administrative data on income and population, we develop new evidence on the magnitude of life expectancy inequality in Hungary and the scope for health policy in mitigating this. We document considerable inequalities in life expectancy at age 45 across settlement-level income groups, and show that these inequalities have increased between 1991–96 and 2011–16 for both men and women. We show that avoidable deaths play a large role in life expectancy inequality. Income-related inequalities in health behaviours, access to care, and healthcare use are all closely linked to the inequality in life expectancy.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1877332 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 443-455 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1877332 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1877332 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:443-455 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hannaliis Jaadla Author-X-Name-First: Hannaliis Author-X-Name-Last: Jaadla Author-Name: Leigh Shaw-Taylor Author-X-Name-First: Leigh Author-X-Name-Last: Shaw-Taylor Author-Name: Romola Davenport Author-X-Name-First: Romola Author-X-Name-Last: Davenport Title: Height and health in late eighteenth-century England Abstract: Adult stature has become a widely used indicator of childhood nutritional status in historical populations and may provide insights into health inequalities that are not discernible in mortality rates. However, most pre-twentieth-century British data on heights suffer from selection biases. Here we present unique evidence on heights of adult males by occupation from an unbiased sample of adult males in Dorset in 1798–99. The mean height of fully grown (married) men was very similar to that of older military recruits, and our sample therefore confirms the taller stature of English males relative to males of other European countries in the same period. In contrast to previous evidence of negligible or U-shaped socio-economic gradients in mortality in this period, we found a fairly linear gradient in height by socio-economic status, that is similar in magnitude to class differences in adult height among English males born in the mid-twentieth century.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1823011 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 381-401 Issue: 3 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 9 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1823011 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2020.1823011 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:3:p:381-401 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Melinda C. Mills Author-X-Name-First: Melinda C. Author-X-Name-Last: Mills Author-Name: Charles Rahal Author-X-Name-First: Charles Author-X-Name-Last: Rahal Title: Population Studies at 75 years: An empirical review Abstract: Population Studies advances research on fertility, mortality, family, migration, methods, policy, and beyond, yet it lacks a recent, rigorous review. We examine all papers published between 1947 and 2020 (N = 1,901) and their authors, using natural language processing, social network analysis, and mixed methods that combine unsupervised machine learning with qualitative coding. After providing a brief history, we map the evolution in authorship and papers towards shorter, multi-authored papers, also finding that females comprise 33.5 per cent of authorship across the period under study, with varied sex ratios across topics. Most papers examine fertility, mortality, and family, studying groups and change, but topics vary over time. Children are rarely studied, and research on women focuses on family planning, fertility decline, and unions, whereas key domains for research on men are migration, historical demography (war, famine), and employment. Research on Africa and Asia focuses on family planning, with work on fertility decline concentrated on North America and Europe, consistent with theories of demographic transition. Our resulting discussion identifies future directions for demographic research. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 7-25 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1996624 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1996624 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:7-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Svenn-Erik Mamelund Author-X-Name-First: Svenn-Erik Author-X-Name-Last: Mamelund Author-Name: Jessica Dimka Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Dimka Title: Not the great equalizers: Covid-19, 1918–20 influenza, and the need for a paradigm shift in pandemic preparedness Abstract: Despite common perceptions to the contrary, pandemic diseases do not affect populations indiscriminately. In this paper, we review literature produced by demographers, historians, epidemiologists, and other researchers on disparities during the 1918–20 influenza pandemic and the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from these studies demonstrates that lower socio-economic status and minority/stigmatized race or ethnicity are associated with higher morbidity and mortality. However, such research often lacks theoretical frameworks or appropriate data to explain the mechanisms underlying these disparities fully. We suggest using a framework that considers proximal and distal factors contributing to differential exposure, susceptibility, and consequences as one way to move this research forward. Further, current pandemic preparedness plans emphasize medically defined risk groups and epidemiological approaches. Therefore, we conclude by arguing in favour of a transdisciplinary paradigm that recognizes socially defined risk groups, includes input from the social sciences and humanities and other diverse perspectives, and contributes to the reduction of health disparities before a pandemic hits. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-199 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1959630 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1959630 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:179-199 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wendy Sigle Author-X-Name-First: Wendy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigle Title: Demography’s theory and approach: (How) has the view from the margins changed? Abstract: Around the time that Population Studies celebrated its 50th anniversary in 1996, Susan Greenhalgh published ‘An intellectual, institutional, and political history of twentieth-century demography’. Her contribution described a discipline that, when viewed from its margins, prompted scholars in other disciplines to ask the following questions: ‘Why is the field still wedded to many of the assumptions of mid-century modernization theory and why are there no critical … perspectives in the discipline?’ (Greenhalgh 1996, p. 27). Those questions still arise today. Similarly, Greenhalgh’s observation that ‘neither the global political economies of the 1970s, nor the postmodernisms and postcolonialities of the 1980s and 1990s, nor the feminisms of any decade have had much perceptible impact on the field’ (pp. 27–8), remains a fairly accurate depiction of research published in Population Studies and other demography journals. In this contribution, focusing predominantly on feminist research and insights, I discuss how little has changed since 1996 and explain why the continued lack of engagement concerns me. Demographers still often fail to appreciate the impossibility of atheoretical ‘just descriptive’ research. Our methods carry assumptions and so rely on (often) implicit theoretical frameworks. Not making frameworks explicit does not mean they do not exert an important influence. I end by proposing that the training of research students should be part of a strategy to effect change. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 235-251 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1984550 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1984550 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:235-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alice Reid Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Reid Title: Why a long-term perspective is beneficial for demographers Abstract: Although many contemporary demographers pay attention to historical demography, there is often a surprising lack of appreciation of the demographic circumstances and systems of the past, suggesting an implicit assumption that they are not relevant to the present or that the methods, data, and questions addressed by historical and contemporary demographers are different. This paper provides an overview of historical demography as published in Population Studies and how this has developed over time. Drawing on this, I demonstrate that historical and contemporary demography use similar data sources and identical methods, and they often address comparable questions. I argue that an appreciation of demographic patterns and processes is beneficial for all demographers, even those who work on the most recent time periods, and that better integration of historical and contemporary demography would be beneficial to both. The paper also considers three challenges for historical demography as it moves forward. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 157-177 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2002393 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:157-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ronald Skeldon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Skeldon Title: Moving towards the centre or the exit? Migration in population studies and in Population Studies 1996–2021 Abstract: This paper examines the position of migration in population studies, focusing on the period 1996–2021. It considers the reasons why migration remains problematic for demographers, but also how approaches to migration have changed over the last 25 years. While it has arguably become more important to both demography and population studies because of the transition to low fertility and mortality, migration has metamorphosed into a complex field in its own right, almost independently from changes in demography. Both internal and international migration form the subject of this examination and four main themes are pursued: data and measurement; theories and approaches; migration and development; and migration and political demography. The papers published in the journal Population Studies are used to provide a mirror through which to view these changes over the last 25 years. This paper concludes by looking at likely future directions in migration studies, demography, and population studies. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 27-45 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1942178 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1942178 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:27-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rishita Nandagiri Author-X-Name-First: Rishita Author-X-Name-Last: Nandagiri Title: What’s so troubling about ‘voluntary’ family planning anyway? A feminist perspective Abstract: Voluntary family planning is a key mainstay of demographic work and population policies. The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) signalled a decisive shift away from fertility reduction and target-setting to an emphasis on voluntary family planning as intrinsic to reproductive health and women’s empowerment. Yet, criticisms of voluntary family planning programmes persist, interrogating how ‘voluntariness’ is understood and wielded or questioning the instrumentalization of women’s fertilities in the service of economic and developmental goals. In this paper, I reflect on these debates with the aim of troubling the notion of voluntary family planning as an unambiguous good that enables equitable empowerment and development for all. Drawing on literature from cognate disciplines, I highlight how voluntariness is linked to social and structural conditions, and I challenge the instrumentalization of voluntary family planning as a ‘common agenda’ to solve ‘development’ problems. Engaging with this work can contribute to key concepts (e.g. ‘voluntary’) and measurements (e.g. autonomy), strengthening the collective commitment to achieving the ICPD and contributing to reproductive empowerment and autonomy. Through this intervention, I aim to help demographers see why some critics call for a reconsideration of voluntary family planning and encourage a decoupling of interventions from fertility reduction aims, instead centring human rights, autonomy, and reproductive empowerment. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 221-234 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1996623 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1996623 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:221-234 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: John Ermisch Author-X-Name-First: John Author-X-Name-Last: Ermisch Title: Looking to the future of Population Studies Journal: Population Studies Pages: 253-254 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2006444 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2006444 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:253-254 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Wendy Sigle Author-X-Name-First: Wendy Author-X-Name-Last: Sigle Author-Name: Alice Reid Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Reid Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: 75 years of Population Studies: A diamond anniversary special issue Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-5 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2006440 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2006440 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:1-5 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rebecca Sear Author-X-Name-First: Rebecca Author-X-Name-Last: Sear Title: Demography and the rise, apparent fall, and resurgence of eugenics Abstract: Demography was heavily involved in the eugenics movement of the early twentieth century but, along with most other social science disciplines, largely rejected eugenic thinking in the decades after the Second World War. Eugenic ideology never entirely deserted academia, however, and in the twenty-first century, it is re-emerging into mainstream academic discussion. This paper aims, first, to provide a reminder of demography’s early links with eugenics and, second, to raise awareness of this academic resurgence of eugenic ideology. The final aim of the paper is to recommend ways to counter this resurgence: these include more active discussion of demography’s eugenic past, especially when training students; greater emphasis on critical approaches in demography; and greater engagement of demographers (and other social scientists) with biologists and geneticists, in order to ensure that research which combines the biological and social sciences is rigorous. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 201-220 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2009013 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2009013 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:201-220 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Alyson A. van Raalte Author-X-Name-First: Alyson A. Author-X-Name-Last: van Raalte Title: What have we learned about mortality patterns over the past 25 years? Abstract: In this paper, I examine progress in the field of mortality over the past 25 years. I argue that we have been most successful in taking advantage of an increasingly data-rich environment to improve aggregate mortality models and test pre-existing theories. Less progress has been made in relating our estimates of mortality risk at the individual level to broader mortality patterns at the population level while appropriately accounting for contextual differences and compositional change. Overall, I find that the field of mortality continues to be highly visible in demographic journals, including Population Studies. However much of what is published today in field journals could just as easily appear in neighbouring disciplinary journals, as disciplinary boundaries are shrinking. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 105-132 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1967430 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1967430 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:105-132 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elspeth Graham Author-X-Name-First: Elspeth Author-X-Name-Last: Graham Title: Theory and explanation in demography: The case of low fertility in Europe Abstract: In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft’s comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 133-155 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1971742 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1971742 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:133-155 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Raya Muttarak Author-X-Name-First: Raya Author-X-Name-Last: Muttarak Title: Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change Abstract: The human population is at the centre of research on global environmental change. On the one hand, population dynamics influence the environment and the global climate system through consumption-based carbon emissions. On the other hand, the health and well-being of the population are already being affected by climate change. A knowledge of population dynamics and population heterogeneity is thus fundamental to improving our understanding of how population size, composition, and distribution influence global environmental change and how these changes affect population subgroups differentially by demographic characteristics and spatial distribution. The increasing relevance of demographic research on the topic, coupled with availability of theoretical concepts and advancement in data and computing facilities, has contributed to growing engagement of demographers in this field. In the past 25 years, demographic research has enriched climate change research—with the key contribution being in moving beyond the narrow view that population matters only in terms of population size—by putting a greater emphasis on population composition and distribution, through presenting both empirical evidence and advanced population forecasting to account for demographic and spatial heterogeneity. What remains missing in the literature is research that investigates how global environmental change affects current and future demographic processes and, consequently, population trends. If global environmental change does influence fertility, mortality, and migration, then population estimates and forecasts need to adjust for climate feedback in population projections. Indisputably, this is the area of new research that directly requires expertise in population science and contribution from demographers. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 77-104 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1988684 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1988684 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:77-104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ridhi Kashyap Author-X-Name-First: Ridhi Author-X-Name-Last: Kashyap Title: Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem Abstract: Over the past 25 years, technological improvements that have made the collection, transmission, storage, and analysis of data significantly easier and more cost efficient have ushered in what has been described as the ‘big data’ era or the ‘data revolution’. In the social sciences context, the data revolution has often been characterized in terms of increased volume and variety of data, and much excitement has focused on the growing opportunity to repurpose data that are the by-products of the digitalization of social life for research. However, many features of the data revolution are not new for demographers, who have long used large-scale population data and been accustomed to repurposing imperfect data not originally collected for research. Nevertheless, I argue that demography, too, has been affected by the data revolution, and the data ecosystem for demographic research has been significantly enriched. These developments have occurred across two dimensions. The first involves the augmented granularity, variety, and opportunities for linkage that have bolstered the capabilities of ‘old’ big population data sources, such as censuses, administrative data, and surveys. The second involves the growing interest in and use of ‘new’ big data sources, such as ‘digital traces’ generated through internet and mobile phone use, and related to this, the emergence of ‘digital demography’. These developments have enabled new opportunities and offer much promise moving forward, but they also raise important ethical, technical, and conceptual challenges for the field. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 47-75 Issue: S1 Volume: 75 Year: 2021 Month: 12 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1969031 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1969031 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:S1:p:47-75 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Federica Querin Author-X-Name-First: Federica Author-X-Name-Last: Querin Title: Preferences for a mixed-sex composition of offspring: A multigenerational approach Abstract: Parents with two boys or two girls are more likely to have a third child than those with a ‘sex mix’. However, little is known on whether these ‘mixed-sex preferences’ extend beyond the nuclear family. This study leverages the random variation in sex at birth to assess whether the sex of nieces and nephews, in combination with own children, matters for fertility choices. Using three-generational data from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I show that extended families (including grandparents, their children, and their grandchildren) are collectively more likely to have three or more grandchildren when lacking sex mix, whether the first two grandchildren are siblings or cousins. I explore the pathways for these offspring sex preferences, finding support for a preference for an uninterrupted line of male descendants. This multigenerational approach also contributes a new estimation strategy that causally estimates the effects of family sizes on outcomes beyond fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-18 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2027003 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2027003 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:1-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ugofilippo Basellini Author-X-Name-First: Ugofilippo Author-X-Name-Last: Basellini Author-Name: Carlo Giovanni Camarda Author-X-Name-First: Carlo Giovanni Author-X-Name-Last: Camarda Title: Explaining regional differences in mortality during the first wave of Covid-19 in Italy Abstract: Italy was hit harshly by the Covid-19 pandemic, registering more than 35,000 Covid-19 deaths between February and July 2020. During this first wave of the epidemic, the virus spread unequally across the country, with northern regions witnessing more cases and deaths. We investigate demographic and socio-economic factors contributing to the diverse regional impact of the virus during the first wave. Using generalized additive mixed models, we find that Covid-19 mortality at regional level is negatively associated with the degree of intergenerational co-residence, number of intensive care unit beds per capita, and delay in the outbreak of the epidemic. Conversely, we do not find strong associations for several variables highlighted in recent literature, such as population density or the share of the population who are older or have at least one chronic disease. Our results underscore the importance of context-specific analysis for the study of a pandemic. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 99-118 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1984551 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1984551 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:99-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez Author-X-Name-First: Hiram Author-X-Name-Last: Beltrán-Sánchez Author-Name: Alberto Palloni Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Palloni Author-Name: Yiyue Huangfu Author-X-Name-First: Yiyue Author-X-Name-Last: Huangfu Author-Name: Mary McEniry Author-X-Name-First: Mary Author-X-Name-Last: McEniry Title: Population-level impact of adverse early life conditions on adult healthy life expectancy in low- and middle-income countries Abstract: Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggests that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. The bulk of empirical DOHaD literature does not consider the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the population level. In particular, it ignores the distortion of age and cohort patterns of adult health and mortality and the increased load of chronic illness and disability that ensues. In this paper, we use a microsimulation model combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and associated disability in low- and middle-income countries to assess the magnitude of delayed effects on adult healthy life expectancy and on compression (or expansion) of morbidity at older ages. The main goal is to determine if, in what ways, and to what extent delayed effects due to early conditions can influence cohorts’ chronic illness and disability profiles. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 19-36 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1933149 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1933149 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:19-36 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas J. Bollyky Author-X-Name-First: Thomas J. Author-X-Name-Last: Bollyky Author-Name: Nick Graetz Author-X-Name-First: Nick Author-X-Name-Last: Graetz Author-Name: Joseph Dieleman Author-X-Name-First: Joseph Author-X-Name-Last: Dieleman Author-Name: Molly K. Miller-Petrie Author-X-Name-First: Molly K. Author-X-Name-Last: Miller-Petrie Author-Name: Diana Schoder Author-X-Name-First: Diana Author-X-Name-Last: Schoder Author-Name: Sean Joyce Author-X-Name-First: Sean Author-X-Name-Last: Joyce Author-Name: Michel Guillot Author-X-Name-First: Michel Author-X-Name-Last: Guillot Author-Name: Simon I. Hay Author-X-Name-First: Simon I. Author-X-Name-Last: Hay Title: Growing up and moving out: Migration and the demographic transition in low- and middle-income nations Abstract: International migration has increased since 1990, with increasing numbers of migrants originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Efforts to explain this compositional shift have focused on wage gaps and other push and pull factors but have not adequately considered the role of demographic factors. In many LMICs, child mortality has fallen without commensurate economic growth and amid high fertility. This combination increases young adult populations and is associated with greater outmigration: in the poorest countries, we estimate that a one-percentage-point increase in the five-year lagged growth rate of the population of 15–24-year-olds was associated with a 15 per cent increase in all-age outmigrants, controlling for other factors. Increases in growth of young adult populations led to 20.4 million additional outmigrants across 80 countries between 1990 and 2015. Understanding the determinants of these migration shifts should help policymakers in origin and destination countries to maximize their potential positive effects. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 63-80 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2034919 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2034919 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:63-80 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jacek Cypryjański Author-X-Name-First: Jacek Author-X-Name-Last: Cypryjański Title: Are the birthdates of our ancestors real? Date of birth misregistration in twentieth-century Poland Abstract: This study aimed to explore the phenomenon of birthdate misregistration, using birth data from 45,226,875 Polish citizens, that is, all those born 1900–2000 and registered in Poland’s Universal Electronic System for Registration of the Population (PESEL). I transformed the data into a daily series of births, detrended by dividing each value by the daily average for the relevant year. Next, I selected the dates with the highest deviations based on the coefficients of the linear regression model with dummy variables. Finally, I estimated the size of the phenomenon in subsequent years by comparing the numbers of births on selected dates to their expected values. This paper is the first to document the specificity, scale, duration, and probable causes of birthdate misregistration in Poland in the twentieth century. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 157-168 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2034920 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2034920 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:157-168 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marika Jalovaara Author-X-Name-First: Marika Author-X-Name-Last: Jalovaara Author-Name: Linus Andersson Author-X-Name-First: Linus Author-X-Name-Last: Andersson Author-Name: Anneli Miettinen Author-X-Name-First: Anneli Author-X-Name-Last: Miettinen Title: Parity disparity: Educational differences in Nordic fertility across parities and number of reproductive partners Abstract: Most research on trends in socio-economic fertility differences has focused on cohort total fertility and on women. This study aimed to analyse how cohort trends in parity-specific fertility differ across educational segments for men and women and what role multi-partner fertility plays in these trends. We used Finnish and Swedish register data on cohorts born in 1940–73/78. The main analyses used parity progression ratios, comparing ordinary ratios with similar ratios using births to first reproductive partners only. Among the low and medium educated, we observe strengthening parity polarization across cohorts, with increases in both childlessness and births of order three or higher, the latter largely reflecting increases in multi-partner fertility. Highly educated men and women more often have exactly two children. We demonstrate that cohort total fertility can mask significant parity-specific trends across educational groups and that changes in multi-partner fertility can play a part in cohort trends in socio-economic fertility differentials. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 119-136 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1887506 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1887506 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:119-136 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew Wallace Author-X-Name-First: Matthew Author-X-Name-Last: Wallace Author-Name: Ben Wilson Author-X-Name-First: Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Wilson Title: Age variations and population over-coverage: Is low mortality among migrants merely a data artefact? Abstract: The migrant mortality advantage has been observed extensively, but its authenticity is debated. In particular, concerns persist that the advantage is an artefact of the data, generated by the problems of recording mobility among foreign-born populations. Here, we build on the intersection of two recent developments: the first showing substantial age variation in the advantage—a deep U-shaped advantage at peak migration ages—and the second showing high levels of population over-coverage, the principal source of data artefact, at the same ages. We use event history analysis of Sweden’s population registers (2010–15) to test whether this over-coverage can explain age variation in the migrant mortality advantage. We document its U-shape in Sweden and, crucially, demonstrate that large mortality differentials persist after adjusting for estimated over-coverage. Our findings contribute to ongoing debate by demonstrating that the migrant mortality advantage is real and by ruling out one of its primary mechanisms. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 81-98 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1877331 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1877331 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:81-98 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Endale Kebede Author-X-Name-First: Endale Author-X-Name-Last: Kebede Author-Name: Erich Striessnig Author-X-Name-First: Erich Author-X-Name-Last: Striessnig Author-Name: Anne Goujon Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Goujon Title: The relative importance of women’s education on fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis Abstract: Lowering desired family size is a necessary precondition for fertility declines in high-fertility settings. Although accumulated evidence links socio-economic developments to changing fertility desires, little research has disentangled the relative importance of key socio-economic determinants. Combining individual- and community-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys in 34 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, we compare the relative role of different socio-economic factors on fertility desires at the individual, community, and country levels. Results show that at the individual level, women’s education has a stronger effect than household wealth and area of residence. The high levels of reported desired family size in rural parts of SSA are mainly a consequence of relatively lower levels of education. The relative impact of women’s education is even stronger at the community level. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of fertility preferences and strengthen previous findings regarding the relationship between fertility and women’s education. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 137-156 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1892170 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1892170 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:137-156 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ashira Menashe-Oren Author-X-Name-First: Ashira Author-X-Name-Last: Menashe-Oren Author-Name: Bruno Masquelier Author-X-Name-First: Bruno Author-X-Name-Last: Masquelier Title: The shifting rural–urban gap in mortality over the life course in low- and middle-income countries Abstract: Studies have shown that children in rural areas face excess risks of dying, but the little research on spatial inequalities in adult mortality has reached mixed conclusions. We examine rural–urban differences in mortality in 53 low- and middle-income countries. We consider how the rural–urban mortality gap evolves from birth to age 60 by estimating mortality based on birth and sibling histories from 138 Demographic and Health Surveys run between 1992 and 2018. We observe excess rural mortality until age 15, finding the largest differences between urban and rural sectors among 1–59-month-olds. While we cannot claim higher mortality among urban adults than those in rural areas, we find a reduced gap between the sectors over the life course and a diminishing urban advantage in adult mortality with age. This shift over the life course reflects a divergence in the epidemiologic transition between the rural and urban sectors. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 37-61 Issue: 1 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2020326 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2020326 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:1:p:37-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ben Malinga John Author-X-Name-First: Ben Malinga Author-X-Name-Last: John Author-Name: Vissého Adjiwanou Author-X-Name-First: Vissého Author-X-Name-Last: Adjiwanou Title: Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter? Abstract: The interplay between remarriage and fertility is among the most poorly documented subjects in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite remarriage being one of the fundamental aspects of marriage dynamics in this region. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 countries in SSA to document the association between remarriage and fertility during the reproductive years and over the fertility transition. The findings show that in 29 countries, remarried women end up having fewer children than women in intact unions, despite attaining similar or higher levels of fertility at early reproductive ages. However, remarriage is found to have a positive effect on fertility in Sierra Leone. The effects of remarriage on fertility diminish as fertility declines, with smaller effects generally observed in countries that are relatively advanced in their fertility transition and larger effects found elsewhere. These findings shed light on the role that remarriage might play in country-level fertility declines. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 213-233 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1933148 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1933148 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:213-233 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia Author-X-Name-First: Francisco J. Author-X-Name-Last: Beltrán Tapia Author-Name: Michail Raftakis Author-X-Name-First: Michail Author-X-Name-Last: Raftakis Title: Sex ratios and gender discrimination in Modern Greece Abstract: This paper argues that son preference resulted in gender-based discriminatory practices that unduly increased mortality rates for females at birth and throughout infancy and childhood in nineteenth- and early-twentieth-century Greece. The relative numbers of boys and girls at birth was extremely high and under-registration of females cannot on its own explain this result. The infanticide and/or mortal neglect of infant girls was therefore more common than previously acknowledged. Likewise, sex ratios increased as children grew older, thus suggesting that parents continued to treat boys and girls differently throughout childhood. A large body of qualitative evidence (contemporary accounts, folklore traditions, feminist newspapers, and anthropological studies) further supports the conclusion that girls were neglected due to their inferior status in society. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 329-346 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1923787 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1923787 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:329-346 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Maximilian W. Müller Author-X-Name-First: Maximilian W. Author-X-Name-Last: Müller Author-Name: Joan Hamory Author-X-Name-First: Joan Author-X-Name-Last: Hamory Author-Name: Jennifer Johnson-Hanks Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson-Hanks Author-Name: Edward Miguel Author-X-Name-First: Edward Author-X-Name-Last: Miguel Title: The illusion of stable fertility preferences Abstract: Fertility preferences have long played a key role in models of fertility differentials and change. We examine the stability of preferences over time using rich panel data on Kenyan women’s fertility desires, expectations, actual fertility, and recall of desires in three waves over a nine-year period, when respondents were in their 20s. We find that although desired fertility is quite unstable, most women perceive their desires to be stable. Under hypothetical future scenarios, few expect their desired fertility to increase over time but, in fact, such increases in fertility desires are common. Moreover, when asked to recall past desires, most respondents report previously wanting exactly as many children as they desire today. These patterns of bias are consistent with the emerging view that fertility desires are contextual, emotionally laden, and structured by identity. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 169-189 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2057577 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2057577 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:169-189 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Rengin Aktar Author-X-Name-First: Rengin Author-X-Name-Last: Aktar Author-Name: Alberto Palloni Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Palloni Title: Ready–Willing–Able: Early childhood mortality decline in Turkey Abstract: We test a conjecture to explain Turkey’s decades-long ‘underachievement’ in early child mortality improvements. We argue that it is largely a consequence of cultural barriers to embracing available modern medical technology and healthcare practices. The empirical test rests on a reformulation of Coale’s Ready–Willing–Able (RWA) framework for explaining fertility changes, which makes it suitable to understand mortality changes. We use structural equation modelling and Demographic and Health Surveys spanning 1993–2013 to estimate basic parameters of the reformulated framework. These parameters are then used to classify mothers into four groups with different configurations of RWA dimensions and different probabilities of adopting modern medical practices. We find that observed behaviours in these groups were consistent with RWA expectations. In addition, we find that an important contributor to Turkey’s lagging mortality decline was a population distribution biased towards groups more reticent to adopting modern healthcare. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 273-293 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2058596 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2058596 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:273-293 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Batool Zaidi Author-X-Name-First: Batool Author-X-Name-Last: Zaidi Title: Son preference and sex differentials in receipt of key dimensions of children’s healthcare: Evidence from Pakistan Abstract: Almost all research on son preference and the consequent sex differentials in child health has focused on India. Pakistan—a country with the second strongest stated desire for sons, no evidence of sex-selective abortion, and relatively high fertility—offers a different context in which to understand unequal health outcomes for boys and girls. I use three rounds of the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey to examine sex differentials in child healthcare receipt across different family contexts. I find evidence of generalized discrimination: all girls, regardless of sibling composition or birth order, are less likely to receive full immunization or medical treatment. I do not find evidence that girls with older sisters face greater discrimination than other girls. For boys, I find some evidence of selective preferential treatment: among larger families, first sons are more likely to receive healthcare than other sons or daughters. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 309-328 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2032290 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2032290 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:309-328 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Astri Syse Author-X-Name-First: Astri Author-X-Name-Last: Syse Author-Name: Michael Thomas Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Thomas Author-Name: Lars Dommermuth Author-X-Name-First: Lars Author-X-Name-Last: Dommermuth Author-Name: Rannveig Kaldager Hart Author-X-Name-First: Rannveig Kaldager Author-X-Name-Last: Hart Title: Does women’s health matter for fertility? Evidence from Norwegian administrative data Abstract: Women’s health status may affect their opportunities and preferences for children through various mechanisms. We examine the relationship between health and fertility using Norwegian registry data (2004–18). Measuring verifiable and persistent health problems, we use uptake of doctor-certified sickness absence and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. In contrast to the expectation that poor health limits women’s opportunities for children, our results show that sickness absence is positively associated with transitions to parenthood. The uptake of long-term benefits is, however, negatively associated with fertility. The selection of healthy women into parenthood weakens the association for higher-order births. The impact of long-term health indicators on fertility is comparable in magnitude to that observed for more conventional predictors, such as education and income. With continued postponement of childbearing and thus higher maternal ages, the influence of health as a fertility determinant is likely to grow and further research appears warranted.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 191-212 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2041075 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:191-212 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jarl E. Mooyaart Author-X-Name-First: Jarl E. Author-X-Name-Last: Mooyaart Author-Name: Aart C. Liefbroer Author-X-Name-First: Aart C. Author-X-Name-Last: Liefbroer Author-Name: Francesco C. Billari Author-X-Name-First: Francesco C. Author-X-Name-Last: Billari Title: The changing relationship between socio-economic background and family formation in four European countries Abstract: Family formation, a process that includes union formation, fertility, and their timing and order, has become increasingly diverse and complex in Europe. We examine how the relationship between socio-economic background and family formation has changed over time in France, Italy, Romania, and Sweden, using first wave Generations and Gender Survey data. Competing Trajectories Analysis, a procedure which combines event-history analysis with sequence analysis, allows us to examine family formation as a process, capturing differences in both the timing of the start of family formation and the pathways that young adults follow. Regarding timing, socio-economic background differences in France and Sweden have remained relatively small, whereas in Italy and Romania higher parental education has become more strongly associated with postponement. Pathways tend to diverge by socio-economic background, particularly in Sweden and France. These results indicate that while family formation patterns have changed, they continue to be stratified by socio-economic background. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 235-251 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1901969 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1901969 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:235-251 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Georgia Verropoulou Author-X-Name-First: Georgia Author-X-Name-Last: Verropoulou Author-Name: Apostolos Papachristos Author-X-Name-First: Apostolos Author-X-Name-Last: Papachristos Author-Name: George B. Ploubidis Author-X-Name-First: George B. Author-X-Name-Last: Ploubidis Author-Name: Cleon Tsimbos Author-X-Name-First: Cleon Author-X-Name-Last: Tsimbos Title: Quantifying self-rated age Abstract: Chronological age, in conjunction with population life tables, is widely used for estimating future life expectancy. The aims of this study are to estimate a subjective ageing indicator, namely self-rated age, and to evaluate its concurrent validity in comparison with other age indicators: subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. We use data from the Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, Wave 12 of the Health and Retirement Study in the United States, and life tables from the Human Mortality Database. For the statistical analysis we use multinomial regression models. Our results indicate that health status and frequency of physical activities imply similar patterns of self- rated age, subjective survival probabilities, subjective age, and biological age. However, the impact of cognitive function differs by geographical region. Self-rated age can be interpreted as a subjective adjustment that better reflects the ageing process. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 347-361 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2030490 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2030490 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:347-361 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mark C. Long Author-X-Name-First: Mark C. Author-X-Name-Last: Long Author-Name: Elizabeth Pelletier Author-X-Name-First: Elizabeth Author-X-Name-Last: Pelletier Author-Name: Jennifer Romich Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer Author-X-Name-Last: Romich Title: Constructing monthly residential locations of adults using merged state administrative data Abstract: In any month, administrative data collected by government agencies contain a fraction of the polity’s adults, namely those who have interacted with government agencies in that month. For researchers and policymakers who want to evaluate questions that require a spatial location of the whole population of adults at a given time (e.g. job–residence spatial mismatch, impacts of local policies), these fragmentary records are insufficient. Combining administrative data from several agencies in the State of Washington, United States (US), we impute residential histories by parameterizing the ‘decay’ in maintenance of an observed address. This process yields an imputed population whose demography and geographic distribution matches well with survey estimates. This work uses driving licence, voter, social services, and birth records to append address locations to Unemployment Insurance data, a process that could be replicated with administrative records in other US states and countries with sporadic address data from various agencies. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 253-272 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2085776 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2085776 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:253-272 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Filip Dabergott Author-X-Name-First: Filip Author-X-Name-Last: Dabergott Title: The gendered widowhood effect and social mortality gap Abstract: With few exceptions, greater disparities in mortality risk by socio-economic status (SES) have been found among men than among women. Most research has also shown that the higher mortality risk after widowhood (the widowhood effect) is greater for men. However, a different picture appears when examining these associations jointly. Based on Swedish register data, this study shows that widowhood weakens, or even reverses, the sex differences in socio-economic disparities in mortality. The overall findings also indicate that higher SES elevates the widowhood effect for men but diminishes it for women, and that the widowhood effect is greater for women than men in the lowest SES categories. These results imply that men with higher SES are more vulnerable after widowhood, perhaps because of their previous relatively privileged situation. The disadvantage of widows in lower SES categories may reflect exposure to financial strains after spousal loss and inequalities in the healthcare system. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 295-307 Issue: 2 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1892809 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1892809 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:2:p:295-307 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2130965_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Emma Zang Author-X-Name-First: Emma Author-X-Name-Last: Zang Author-Name: Chloe Sariego Author-X-Name-First: Chloe Author-X-Name-Last: Sariego Author-Name: Anirudh Krishnan Author-X-Name-First: Anirudh Author-X-Name-Last: Krishnan Title: The interplay of race/ethnicity and education in fertility patterns Abstract: This study examines the interplay between race/ethnicity and educational attainment in shaping completed fertility in the United States for women born 1961–80. Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth, 2006–17, we apply multilevel, multiprocess hazard models to account for unobserved heterogeneity and to estimate (1) cohort total fertility rates, (2) parity progression ratios, and (3) parity-specific fertility timing, for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic women by educational attainment. We find that compared with their white counterparts, fertility was higher among Black and Hispanic women with less than high school education. However, among college-educated women, fertility levels were lowest among Black women and highest among Hispanic women. The difference in fertility between college-educated Black and white women is driven mainly by the smaller proportion of Black mothers having second births. We find little evidence that the observed racial/ethnic disparities in fertility levels by educational attainment are driven by differences in fertility timing. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 363-385 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2130965 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2130965 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:363-385 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1959943_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Daniel Ciganda Author-X-Name-First: Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Ciganda Author-Name: Nicolas Todd Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas Author-X-Name-Last: Todd Title: Demographic models of the reproductive process: Past, interlude, and future Abstract: After 30 years of active development, mechanistic models of the reproductive process nearly stopped attracting scholarly interest in the early 1980s. In the following decades, fertility research continued to thrive, relying on solid descriptive work and detailed analysis of micro-level data. The absence of systematic modelling efforts, however, has also made the field more fragmented, with empirical research, theory building, and forecasting advancing along largely disconnected channels. In this paper we outline some of the drivers of this process, from the popularization of user-friendly statistical software to the limitations of early family building models. We then describe a series of developments in computational modelling and statistical computing that can contribute to the emergence of a new generation of mechanistic models. Finally, we introduce a concrete example of this new kind of model, and show how they can be used to formulate and test theories coherently and make informed projections. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 495-513 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1959943 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1959943 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:495-513 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1939406_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Arianna Gatta Author-X-Name-First: Arianna Author-X-Name-Last: Gatta Author-Name: Francesco Mattioli Author-X-Name-First: Francesco Author-X-Name-Last: Mattioli Author-Name: Letizia Mencarini Author-X-Name-First: Letizia Author-X-Name-Last: Mencarini Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli Author-X-Name-First: Daniele Author-X-Name-Last: Vignoli Title: Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience? Abstract: The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 387-406 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:387-406 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2094452_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Jacob Ausubel Author-X-Name-First: Jacob Author-X-Name-Last: Ausubel Author-Name: Stephanie Kramer Author-X-Name-First: Stephanie Author-X-Name-Last: Kramer Author-Name: Anne Fengyan Shi Author-X-Name-First: Anne Fengyan Author-X-Name-Last: Shi Author-Name: Conrad Hackett Author-X-Name-First: Conrad Author-X-Name-Last: Hackett Title: Measuring age differences among different-sex couples: Across religions and 130 countries, men are older than their female partners Abstract: Cross-national studies of age patterns among couples have tended to compare the ages at which men and women first marry, but few have analysed age differences between current spouses or cohabiting partners (i.e. partner age gaps). We address this gap in the literature by using recent census and survey data to analyse age differences between current partners in 130 countries. Worldwide, men are an average of 4.2 years older than their wives or cohabiting partners. However, age gaps vary by region, ranging from 8.6 years in sub-Saharan Africa to 2.2 years in North America. The religious group with the largest age gap is Muslims (6.6 years), while the smallest age gap is seen among Jews (2.2 years). Differences between Muslims and non-Muslims remain even after controlling for country-level gender inequality and per-capita GDP.Supplementary material is available for this article at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2094452 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 465-476 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2094452 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2094452 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:465-476 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1984549_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Brienna Perelli-Harris Author-X-Name-First: Brienna Author-X-Name-Last: Perelli-Harris Author-Name: Niels Blom Author-X-Name-First: Niels Author-X-Name-Last: Blom Title: So happy together … Examining the association between relationship happiness, socio-economic status, and family transitions in the UK Abstract: The increases in cohabitation and in childbearing within cohabitation raise questions about who marries. Most studies have found that childbearing within cohabitation is associated with disadvantage; here, we examine the role of relationship happiness and whether it helps to explain this association. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009–17), our competing risk hazard models follow respondents as they transition: (1) from cohabitation into marriage or childbearing; and (2) from marriage or cohabitation into childbearing. We find that marriage risks are highest among individuals who are happiest with their relationship. On average, the association between relationship quality and childbearing operates through marriage: the happiest individuals marry, and those who marry have children. While higher socio-economic status is weakly associated with marriage, conception, and separation, the associations do not differ by relationship happiness. The findings indicate that overall, relationship happiness appears to be most salient for transitions into marriage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 447-464 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1984549 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1984549 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:447-464 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1999485_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Maria Sironi Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Sironi Author-Name: Ridhi Kashyap Author-X-Name-First: Ridhi Author-X-Name-Last: Kashyap Title: Internet access and partnership formation in the United States Abstract: The Internet has fundamentally altered how we communicate and access information and who we can interact with. However, the implications of Internet access for partnership formation are theoretically ambiguous. We examine their association using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) and Current Population Survey (CPS) in the United States. We find that the relationship between Internet access and partnership states (in the NLSY97) or partnership status (in the CPS) is age-dependent. While negative at the youngest adult ages, the association becomes positive as individuals reach their mid- to late 20s, for both same-sex and different-sex partnerships. The results suggest that Internet access is positively associated with union formation when individuals enter the stage in the young adult life course when they feel ready to commit to a long-term partnership. Our study contributes to a growing literature that highlights the implications of digital technologies for demographic processes.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1999485 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 427-445 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1999485 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1999485 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:427-445 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2096319_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Ronald Skeldon Author-X-Name-First: Ronald Author-X-Name-Last: Skeldon Title: Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries Journal: Population Studies Pages: 553-555 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2096319 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2096319 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:553-555 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2080858_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Alaka Malwade Basu Author-X-Name-First: Alaka Malwade Author-X-Name-Last: Basu Author-Name: Sneha Kumar Author-X-Name-First: Sneha Author-X-Name-Last: Kumar Title: Bride price, dowry, and young men with time to kill: A commentary on men’s marriage postponement in India Abstract: Rising numbers of young unmarried men in India reflect a marriage squeeze that goes beyond the shortage of brides created by sex-selective abortion. We describe a decline in men’s marriageability caused by their falling economic prospects at the same time as families of brides are increasingly seeking grooms with stable employment. We group young men into those without jobs or much education, those with education but no work, and the privileged few with education as well as employment. This classification resolves some of the seeming contradictions in the qualitative literature on marriage in India. Some of this literature talks about the rising prevalence of bride price and some about the persistence of dowry, while some papers reflect in general on the costs of being young, male, and aimless. Our commentary includes a review of the growing literature on the physiological and (perhaps) consequently behavioural and health outcomes of men’s anomie. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 515-534 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2080858 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2080858 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:515-534 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2099566_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Matteo Manfredini Author-X-Name-First: Matteo Author-X-Name-Last: Manfredini Author-Name: Marco Breschi Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Breschi Author-Name: Alessio Fornasin Author-X-Name-First: Alessio Author-X-Name-Last: Fornasin Author-Name: Massimo Esposito Author-X-Name-First: Massimo Author-X-Name-Last: Esposito Title: Maternal nutritional status and offspring childlessness: Evidence from the late-nineteenth to early-twentieth centuries in a group of Italian populations Abstract: The role of maternal nutrition in affecting offspring fertility, through alteration of foetal programming, has been demonstrated in animal-based experiments. However, results from human populations appear inconsistent and sometimes contradictory, likely because they have been based on single famine events. In this paper, we adopt a different approach. We combine official annual time series of daily nutrient availability with a sample of women’s reproductive histories from the 1961 Italian Census to investigate the role of maternal nutritional status in pregnancy on offspring childlessness. The analysis therefore covers cohorts of females born between 1861 and 1939. Our results show a negative association between calorie availability in pregnancy and the odds of offspring childlessness, whereas no association is found between protein availability and offspring childlessness. The consequences of poor calorie intake were aggravated during the summer, likely due to the participation of pregnant women in physically demanding work. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 477-493 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2099566 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2099566 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:477-493 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2112746_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Aashish Gupta Author-X-Name-First: Aashish Author-X-Name-Last: Gupta Title: Seasonal variation in infant mortality in India Abstract: Investigating seasonal variation in health helps us understand interactions between population, environment, and disease. Using information on birth month and year, survival status within the first year of life, and age at death (if applicable) of more than 330,000 children observed in four rounds of India’s Demographic and Health Surveys, I estimate period mortality rates between birth and age one (1m0) by calendar month. Relative to spring months, infant mortality is higher in the summer, monsoon, and winter months. If spring mortality conditions had been prevalent throughout the year, mortality below age one would have been lower by 11.4 deaths per 1,000 in the early 1990s and 3.7 deaths per 1,000 in the mid-2010s. Seasonal variation in infant mortality has declined overall but remains higher among disadvantaged children. The results highlight the multiple environmental health threats that Indian infants face and the short time of year when these threats are less salient. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 535-552 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2112746 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2112746 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:535-552 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1953118_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949 Author-Name: Signe Svallfors Author-X-Name-First: Signe Author-X-Name-Last: Svallfors Title: Contraceptive choice as risk reduction? The relevance of local violence for women’s uptake of sterilization in Colombia Abstract: Altered childbearing behaviour has been observed in many settings of violent conflict, but few studies have addressed fertility control. This is the first study to investigate empirically the relationship between local conflict and uptake of sterilization, the only contraceptive method that reflects a definitive stop to childbearing. The study is based on Colombia, a middle-income, low-fertility, and long-term conflict setting. It builds on a mixed methods approach, combining survey and conflict data with expert interviews. Fixed effects regressions show that local conflict is generally associated with an increased sterilization uptake. The interviews suggest that women may opt for sterilization when reversible methods become less accessible because of ongoing violence. Since sterilization is a relatively available contraceptive option in Colombia, it may represent a risk-aversion strategy for women who have completed their fertility goals. These findings can enlighten research and programmes on fertility and family planning in humanitarian contexts. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 407-426 Issue: 3 Volume: 76 Year: 2022 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1953118 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1953118 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:76:y:2022:i:3:p:407-426 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2063933_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal Author-X-Name-First: Øystein Author-X-Name-Last: Kravdal Author-Name: Jonathan Wörn Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan Author-X-Name-Last: Wörn Author-Name: Bjørn-Atle Reme Author-X-Name-First: Bjørn-Atle Author-X-Name-Last: Reme Title: Mental health benefits of cohabitation and marriage: A longitudinal analysis of Norwegian register data Abstract: The aim is to examine how mental health is affected by cohabitation and marriage. Individual fixed-effects models are estimated from Norwegian register data containing information about consultations with a general practitioner because of mental health conditions in 2006–19. Mental health, as indicated by annual number of consultations, improves over several years before cohabitation. For those marrying their cohabiting partner, there is a weak further reduction in consultations until the wedding, but no decline afterwards. In other words, formalization of the union does not seem to confer additional mental health benefits. However, marriage may be considered a marker of favourable earlier development in mental health. In contrast, there is further improvement after direct marriage, as well as stronger improvement over the years just preceding direct marriage. Patterns are quite similar for women and men. Overall, the results suggest that the mental health benefits of cohabitation and marriage are similar.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2063933. Note: numbers in brackets refer to supplementary notes that can be found at the end of the supplementary material. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 91-110 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2063933 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2063933 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:91-110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2020886_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Katherine Keenan Author-X-Name-First: Katherine Author-X-Name-Last: Keenan Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Author-Name: Alice Goisis Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Goisis Title: Health outcomes of only children across the life course: An investigation using Swedish register data Abstract: Only children (with no full biological siblings) are a growing subgroup in many high-income settings. Previous studies have largely focused on the short-term developmental outcomes of only children, but there is limited evidence on their health outcomes. Using Swedish population register data for cohorts born 1940–75, we compare the health of only children with that of children from multi-child sibling groups, taking into account birth order, family size, and presence of half-siblings. Only children showed lower height and fitness scores, were more likely to be overweight/obese in late adolescence, and experienced higher later-life mortality than those with one or two siblings. However, only children without half-siblings were consistently healthier than those with half-siblings, suggesting that parental disruption confers additional disadvantages. The health disadvantage was attenuated but not fully explained by adjustment for parental characteristics and after using within-family maternal cousin comparison designs. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 71-90 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.2020886 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.2020886 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:71-90 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2168036_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Emily Smith-Greenaway Author-X-Name-First: Emily Author-X-Name-Last: Smith-Greenaway Author-Name: Yingyi Lin Author-X-Name-First: Yingyi Author-X-Name-Last: Lin Title: Is the mortality–fertility nexus gendered? A research note on sex differences in the impact of sibling mortality on fertility preferences Abstract: Research guided by demographic transition theory has shown that exposure to mortality influences women’s fertility preferences and behaviours. Despite the myriad contexts, methodological approaches, and linkages featured in past studies, they have shared a focus on women, leaving questions on the gendered salience of mortality exposures for adults’ fertility-related outcomes unanswered. In this research note, we analyse data from three African countries with distinct fertility profiles (Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to examine associations between sibling mortality exposure and ideal family size among women, men, and couples. We also investigate the stability of these associations over time. The associations between adults’ sibling mortality exposure and their own and their spouses’ ideal family sizes vary across countries. However, the gendered nature of the results in every country and evidence of cross-spousal effects uniformly demonstrate the need to incorporate sex differences into the study of the mortality–fertility link. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 141-151 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2168036 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2168036 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:141-151 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2127858_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Miguel Requena Author-X-Name-First: Miguel Author-X-Name-Last: Requena Author-Name: David Reher Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Reher Author-Name: Alberto Sanz-Gimeno Author-X-Name-First: Alberto Author-X-Name-Last: Sanz-Gimeno Title: Fertility and contraception: The experience of Spanish women born in the first half of the twentieth century Abstract: New data based on retrospective interviews with older informants enable us to review the history of contraceptive use among Spanish women over much of the twentieth century. This source is unique because it includes cohorts of women whose reproductive lives took place before, during, and after the baby boom. Traditional contraceptive methods (withdrawal and periodic abstinence) were central to the experience of the first set of women, while the last set made full use of modern as well as some traditional methods. For the first cohorts, traditional methods spearheaded the historic decline in fertility, while among the last set of women modern methods led to a precipitous decline towards the below-replacement fertility that continues in Spain today. There is no evidence that the modest increases in fertility during the baby boom in Spain were the result of a decline in the use of contraception among married women. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 153-162 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2127858 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2127858 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:153-162 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2168035_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ryan K. Masters Author-X-Name-First: Ryan K. Author-X-Name-Last: Masters Title: Sources and severity of bias in estimates of the BMI–mortality association Abstract: Estimates of mortality differences by body mass index (BMI) are likely biased by: (1) confounding bias from heterogeneity in body shape; (2) positive survival bias in high-BMI samples due to recent weight gain; and (3) negative survival bias in low-BMI samples due to recent weight loss. I investigate these sources of bias in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988–94 and 1999–2006 linked to mortality up to 2015 (17,784 cases; 4,468 deaths). I use Cox survival models to estimate BMI differences in all-cause mortality risks among adults aged [45–85) in the United States. I test for age-based differences in BMI–mortality associations and estimate functional forms of the association using nine BMI levels. Estimates of the BMI–mortality association in NHANES data are significantly affected by all three biases, and obesity–mortality associations adjusted for bias are substantively strong at all ages. The mortality consequences of overweight and obesity have likely been underestimated, especially at older ages. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 35-53 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2168035 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2168035 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:35-53 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2155691_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Fabrizio Mazzonna Author-X-Name-First: Fabrizio Author-X-Name-Last: Mazzonna Author-Name: Nicolò Gatti Author-X-Name-First: Nicolò Author-X-Name-Last: Gatti Title: Cultural differences, intergenerational contacts, and the spread of Covid-19: Evidence from Swiss language regions Abstract: The Covid-19 pandemic displayed large variations between and within countries in the speed of contagion and in observed fatality rates. This work sheds light on the role of social ties in old age, exploiting the high cultural variation between German-speaking and Latin- (French- and Italian-) speaking regions in Switzerland. We show that older adults in Latin-speaking regions exhibit a larger social network and more intergenerational contacts than their German-speaking counterparts. These differences are consistent with the heterogeneous incidence of the disease across language regions. Even controlling for several determinants of the contagion, we find large differences in the incidence of Covid-19 among older adults, in both the first and second waves of the pandemic. These findings also hold when exploiting language variations within the three Swiss bilingual cantons. We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by differences in canton-specific policies or in citizens’ compliance with containment measures. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 111-121 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2155691 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2155691 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:111-121 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2049857_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ryohei Mogi Author-X-Name-First: Ryohei Author-X-Name-Last: Mogi Author-Name: Ester Lazzari Author-X-Name-First: Ester Author-X-Name-Last: Lazzari Author-Name: Jessica Nisén Author-X-Name-First: Jessica Author-X-Name-Last: Nisén Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Title: Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons Abstract: This study aims to present an alternative measure of fertility—cross-sectional average length of life by parity (CALP)—which: (1) is a period fertility indicator using all available cohort information; (2) captures the dynamics of parity transitions; and (3) links information on fertility quantum and timing together as part of a single phenomenon. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we calculate CALP for 12 countries in the Global North. Our results show that women spend the longest time at parity zero on average, and in countries where women spend comparatively longer time at parity zero, they spend fewer years at parities one and two. The analysis is extended by decomposing the differences in CALPs between Sweden and the United States, revealing age- and cohort-specific contributions to population-level differences in parity-specific fertility patterns. The decomposition illustrates how high teenage fertility in the United States dominates the differences between these two countries in the time spent at different parities. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-14 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2049857 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049857 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:1-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2134579_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Min Zhou Author-X-Name-First: Min Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou Author-Name: Wei Guo Author-X-Name-First: Wei Author-X-Name-Last: Guo Title: Sooner, later, or never: Changing fertility intentions due to Covid-19 in China’s Covid-19 epicentre Abstract: Using survey data collected from Hubei province, China’s Covid-19 epicentre, in August 2020, this study examines how fertility intentions of Chinese citizens changed during the Covid-19 pandemic. We consider not only whether people changed their fertility plans due to Covid-19 but also distinguish three types of change: bringing forward (‘sooner’), postponing (‘later’), and abandoning (‘never’) planned fertility. Over half of those who planned to have a child intended to change their fertility plans due to Covid-19. Younger individuals, those of non-Han ethnicities, urban residents, those with one child already, and those with ever-infected family members were more likely to change their fertility plans. While the effects of some characteristics seem to be short term, other characteristics such as age and number of children show more consequential influences. Older individuals and those planning their second child were particularly prone to abandoning their childbearing plans due to Covid-19. The pandemic may thus complicate China’s latest efforts to boost its low fertility. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 123-140 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2134579 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2134579 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:123-140 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2049856_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Isaure Delaporte Author-X-Name-First: Isaure Author-X-Name-Last: Delaporte Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Title: Interaction between childbearing and partnership trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in France: An application of multichannel sequence analysis Abstract: While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants’ family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856 Journal: Population Studies Pages: 55-70 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:55-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2182023_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Thanks to the 2021 and 2022 reviewers Journal: Population Studies Pages: iii-iv Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2182023 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2182023 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:iii-iv Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2057576_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Jiaxin Shi Author-X-Name-First: Jiaxin Author-X-Name-Last: Shi Author-Name: José Manuel Aburto Author-X-Name-First: José Manuel Author-X-Name-Last: Aburto Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen Author-X-Name-First: Pekka Author-X-Name-Last: Martikainen Author-Name: Lasse Tarkiainen Author-X-Name-First: Lasse Author-X-Name-Last: Tarkiainen Author-Name: Alyson van Raalte Author-X-Name-First: Alyson Author-X-Name-Last: van Raalte Title: A distributional approach to measuring lifespan stratification Abstract: The study of the mortality differences between groups has traditionally focused on metrics that describe average levels of mortality, for example life expectancy and standardized mortality rates. Additional insights can be gained by using statistical distance metrics to examine differences in lifespan distributions between groups. Here, we use a distance metric, the non-overlap index, to capture the sociological concept of stratification, which emphasizes the emergence of unique, hierarchically layered social strata. We show an application using Finnish registration data that cover the entire population over the period from 1996 to 2017. The results indicate that lifespan stratification and life-expectancy differences between income groups both increased substantially from 1996 to 2008; subsequently, life-expectancy differences declined, whereas stratification stagnated for men and increased for women. We conclude that the non-overlap index uncovers a unique domain of inequalities in mortality and helps to capture important between-group differences that conventional approaches miss. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 15-33 Issue: 1 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2057576 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2057576 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:1:p:15-33 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2104916_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ewa Batyra Author-X-Name-First: Ewa Author-X-Name-Last: Batyra Author-Name: Tiziana Leone Author-X-Name-First: Tiziana Author-X-Name-Last: Leone Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Title: Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: The case of Brazil Abstract: The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)—a measure free from tempo distortions—and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7–0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 179-195 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2104916 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2104916 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:179-195 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2146856_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: The Editors Title: Correction Journal: Population Studies Pages: i-i Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2146856 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2146856 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:i-i Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_1998583_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Caroline Uggla Author-X-Name-First: Caroline Author-X-Name-Last: Uggla Author-Name: Ben Wilson Author-X-Name-First: Ben Author-X-Name-Last: Wilson Title: Parental age gaps among immigrants and their descendants: Adaptation across time and generations? Abstract: Age gaps between partners have undergone dramatic changes in high-income countries over the past century. Yet, there has been little focus on age gaps for immigrants and their descendants. This is an important omission because age gaps can be interpreted as a macro-level indicator of intergenerational adaptation. We examine the age gaps of biological parents (childbearing partners) among immigrants and their descendants in Sweden, a country with high gender equality and a stable mean age gap. Using longitudinal, whole-population data, we examine changes in age gaps for cohorts born 1950–86. Cohort trends in age gaps often follow very different patterns for male and female immigrants, with limited evidence of adaptation across cohorts. However, there is considerable evidence of adaptation towards the Swedish norm among the second generation, including from direct comparison between immigrants and their children. The largest differences between women and men are seen among the first generation with a Swedish-born partner. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 311-333 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2021.1998583 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2021.1998583 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:311-333 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2195847_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Solveig Glestad Christiansen Author-X-Name-First: Solveig Glestad Author-X-Name-Last: Christiansen Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal Author-X-Name-First: Øystein Author-X-Name-Last: Kravdal Title: Number of children and disability pension due to mental and musculoskeletal disorders: A longitudinal register-based study in Norway Abstract: Earlier research has documented a relationship between parity and all-cause mortality, as well as parity and cause-specific mortality (e.g. cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality). Less is known about the relationship between parity and two very common (but less deadly) types of disorder: mental and musculoskeletal. We examine the association between parity and risk of disability pensioning from all causes and due to mental or musculoskeletal disorders, using Norwegian register data. In addition to controlling for adult socio-demographic characteristics, we control for unobserved confounding from family background by estimating sibling fixed-effects models. We find a higher risk of disability pensioning among the childless and those with one child than for parents with two children, both for all causes combined and for mental disorders. Childless men and fathers with one child also experience excess risk of being pensioned due to musculoskeletal disorders. For mental disorders, we find a positive association with high parity, particularly for men. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 335-346 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2195847 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2195847 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:335-346 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2102672_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Lydia Palumbo Author-X-Name-First: Lydia Author-X-Name-Last: Palumbo Author-Name: Ann Berrington Author-X-Name-First: Ann Author-X-Name-Last: Berrington Author-Name: Peter Eibich Author-X-Name-First: Peter Author-X-Name-Last: Eibich Author-Name: Agnese Vitali Author-X-Name-First: Agnese Author-X-Name-Last: Vitali Title: Uncertain steps into adulthood: Does economic precariousness hinder entry into the first co-residential partnership in the UK? Abstract: This study uses prospective data spanning 27 years (1991–2018) to explore the relationship between economic precariousness and transitions to first co-residential partnership among Britons aged 18–34 across three dimensions: age, historical time, and sex. Economic precariousness is measured using eight objective and subjective indicators, including income, employment, housing, and financial perceptions. Our results show that economic precariousness has a strong negative relationship with entering the first co-residential partnership among those aged 20–30, but the pattern is less clear among the youngest and oldest. Objective measures are easier to interpret than subjective measures. Historical analyses suggest that not being employed decreases the probability of union formation more in recessionary periods than in non-recessionary ones. Among working women, low labour income started to be a predictor of union formation in the most recent periods. Labour income is the only indicator presenting trends in line with our hypotheses across all dimensions. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 263-289 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2102672 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2102672 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:263-289 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2128396_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: D. Susie Lee Author-X-Name-First: D. Susie Author-X-Name-Last: Lee Author-Name: Natalie Nitsche Author-X-Name-First: Natalie Author-X-Name-Last: Nitsche Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Title: Body mass index in early adulthood and transition to first birth: Racial/ethnic and sex differences in the United States NLSY79 Cohort Abstract: Studies show that body mass index during early adulthood (‘early BMI’) predicts the transition to first birth, but early childbearers tend to be omitted from such studies. This sample selection distorts the prevalence of childlessness, and particularly the racial/ethnic heterogeneity therein, because first birth timing differs by race/ethnicity. We imputed pre-parenthood early BMI for a larger sample, including early childbearers, for the same United States NLSY79 data used in a previous study and simulated differences in the probability of childlessness at age 40+ using posterior distributions based on the Bayesian framework. Obesity was consistently associated with higher childlessness across racial/ethnic groups in both sexes, but only among obese women were first births delayed until after early adulthood. The overall lower childlessness among the underweight women appeared largely driven by Black women. Our findings on the intersectionality of race/ethnicity and sex in the BMI–childlessness pathways encourage research on the underlying mechanisms and on more recent cohorts across different societies. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 241-261 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2128396 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2128396 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:241-261 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2217789_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Simona Bignami-Van Assche Author-X-Name-First: Simona Author-X-Name-Last: Bignami-Van Assche Author-Name: Daniela Ghio Author-X-Name-First: Daniela Author-X-Name-Last: Ghio Author-Name: Nikolaos I. Stilianakis Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos I. Author-X-Name-Last: Stilianakis Title: Demographic risk factors, healthcare utilization, and mortality during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in Austria, Germany, and Italy Abstract: At the population level, there is limited empirical evidence on the characteristics of individuals who were hospitalized because of Covid-19, the role of hospitalization in mortality risk, and how both evolved over time. Through the analysis of surveillance data for 7 million people in Austria, Germany, and Italy, we investigate: (1) the demographic characteristics and outcomes of individuals hospitalized because of Covid-19; and (2) the role of demographic risk factors and healthcare utilization (as measured by hospitalization) for the individual probability of dying because of Covid-19, in both cases comparing the period February to June 2020 with July 2020 to February 2021. We find that the demographic profile of individuals who were hospitalized or died because of Covid-19 is the same in both periods, except for a younger age profile for hospitalizations in the second period. Mortality differentials across countries result from the interaction of demographic risk factors and hospitalization at the individual level. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 347-358 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2217789 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2217789 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:347-358 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2069848_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Éva Beaujouan Author-X-Name-First: Éva Author-X-Name-Last: Beaujouan Author-Name: Anne Solaz Author-X-Name-First: Anne Author-X-Name-Last: Solaz Title: Polarized adult fertility patterns following early parental death Abstract: Death of a parent during childhood has become rare in developed countries but remains an important life course event that may have consequences for family formation. This paper describes the link between parental death before age 18 and fertility outcomes in adulthood. Using the large national 2011 French Family Survey (INSEE–INED), we focus on the 1946–66 birth cohorts, for whom we observe entire fertility histories. The sample includes 11,854 respondents who have lost at least one parent before age 18. We find a strong polarization of fertility behaviours among orphaned males, more pronounced for those coming from a disadvantaged background. More often childless, particularly when parental death occurred in adolescence, some seem to retreat from parenthood. But orphaned men and women who do become parents seem to embrace family life, by beginning childbearing earlier and having more children, especially when the deceased parent is of the same sex. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 217-239 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2069848 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2069848 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:217-239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2174268_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Maurice Anyawie Author-X-Name-First: Maurice Author-X-Name-Last: Anyawie Author-Name: Daniel T. Lichter Author-X-Name-First: Daniel T. Author-X-Name-Last: Lichter Title: Children of immigrants: Racial assortative mating and the transition to adulthood Abstract: Few studies have followed immigrant-origin individuals from adolescence to adulthood or examined their spousal choices. Using longitudinal data from Add Health, we present a life-course model that examines the differences in racial assortative mating between children of immigrants and non-immigrants. The results reveal substantial variation in racial endogamy from generation to generation. Racial endogamy was highest in the third generation, but this is due entirely to high racial endogamy among whites. Out-marriage was most pronounced among first- and second-generation immigrants. Our life-course approach shows that the effects of race and generation on intermarriage were mediated by family background (e.g. language proficiency and residence) and educational attainment (at time of marriage), a finding largely indicative of processes of marital assimilation that unfold over time and generation. Evidence of acculturation and structural assimilation, however, could not fully account for the large, persistent, and uneven effects of race and generation on interracial marriage. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 291-309 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2174268 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2174268 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:291-309 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2134578_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Martin Kolk Author-X-Name-First: Martin Author-X-Name-Last: Kolk Title: The relationship between life-course accumulated income and childbearing of Swedish men and women born 1940–70 Abstract: This study uses income accumulated over ages 20–60 to examine whether richer or poorer individuals have more children. Income histories are calculated using yearly administrative register data from contemporary Sweden for cohorts born 1940–70. Differences by parity and income distribution are examined separately by sex. There is a strong positive gradient between accumulated disposable income (and to a lesser extent earnings) and fertility for men in all cohorts and a gradual transformation from a negative to a positive gradient for women. In particular, accumulated incomes are substantially lower for childless men and women than those with children. For men, fertility increases monotonically with increasing income, whereas for women much of the positive gradient results from low fertility among women with very low accumulated incomes in later cohorts. Most of the positive income–fertility gradient can be explained by the high incomes of men and women with two to four children. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 197-215 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2134578 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2134578 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:197-215 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2187441_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Tianyu Shen Author-X-Name-First: Tianyu Author-X-Name-Last: Shen Author-Name: Ester Lazzari Author-X-Name-First: Ester Author-X-Name-Last: Lazzari Author-Name: Vladimir Canudas-Romo Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir Author-X-Name-Last: Canudas-Romo Title: The contribution of survival to changes in the net reproduction rate Abstract: The net reproduction rate (NRR) is an alternative fertility measure to the more common total fertility rate (TFR) and accounts for the mortality context of the population studied. This study is the first to compare NRR trends in high- and low-income countries and to decompose NRR changes over time into fertility and survival components. The results show that changes in the NRR have been driven mostly by changes in fertility. Yet improvements in survival have also played an important role in explaining changes in the NRR over the last century and represent a substantial component of change in some low-income countries today. Furthermore, the decomposition of the survival component by age indicates that the survival effect on population reproduction is concentrated mostly in infancy, although the HIV/AIDS epidemic altered this age profile in some populations. The findings highlight the importance of mortality’s effect on reproduction in specific periods and contexts. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 163-178 Issue: 2 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 05 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2187441 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2187441 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:2:p:163-178 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2080247_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Anna Baranowska-Rataj Author-X-Name-First: Anna Author-X-Name-Last: Baranowska-Rataj Author-Name: Kieron Barclay Author-X-Name-First: Kieron Author-X-Name-Last: Barclay Author-Name: Joan Costa-Font Author-X-Name-First: Joan Author-X-Name-Last: Costa-Font Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Author-Name: Berkay Özcan Author-X-Name-First: Berkay Author-X-Name-Last: Özcan Title: Preterm birth and educational disadvantage: Heterogeneous effects Abstract: Although preterm birth is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in advanced economies, evidence about the consequences of prematurity in later life is limited. Using Swedish registers for cohorts born 1982–94 (N  =  1,087,750), we examine the effects of preterm birth on school grades at age 16 using sibling fixed effects models. We further examine how school grades are affected by degree of prematurity and the compensating roles of family socio-economic resources and characteristics of school districts. Our results show that the negative effects of preterm birth are observed mostly among children born extremely preterm (<28 weeks); children born moderately preterm (32–<37 weeks) suffer no ill effects. We do not find any evidence for a moderating effect of parental socio-economic resources. Children born extremely preterm and in the top decile of school districts achieve as good grades as children born at full term in an average school district.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2080247. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 459-474 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2080247 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2080247 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:459-474 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2149845_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Elena Pirani Author-X-Name-First: Elena Author-X-Name-Last: Pirani Author-Name: Daniele Vignoli Author-X-Name-First: Daniele Author-X-Name-Last: Vignoli Title: Childbearing across partnerships in Italy: Prevalence, demographic correlates, and social gradient Abstract: Studies of childbearing across partnerships—having children with more than one partner—have generally focused on countries with relatively high separation rates. We complement this previous research with analyses for Italy using nationally representative, retrospective data and event-history techniques. This study offers three key findings. First, we detected a non-negligible share of childbearing across partnerships, although at substantially lower levels relative to other wealthy countries (5 per cent of parents aged 25–54 with at least two children). Second, multivariate analyses revealed an impressive similarity to the demographic correlates found elsewhere. Finally, we showed that childbearing across partnerships was initiated by the ‘social vanguard’ of new family behaviours but then diffused among the least well-off. Overall, this paper adds to the growing literature on childbearing across partnerships by showing the phenomenon to be demographically and sociologically relevant, even in countries with strong family ties and a limited diffusion of union dissolution. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 379-398 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2149845 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2149845 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:379-398 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2231913_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Aude Bernard Author-X-Name-First: Aude Author-X-Name-Last: Bernard Author-Name: Sergi Vidal Author-X-Name-First: Sergi Author-X-Name-Last: Vidal Title: Linking internal and international migration over the life course: A sequence analysis of individual migration trajectories in Europe Abstract: Because internal and international migration are typically conceptualized and measured separately, empirical evidence on the links between these two forms of population movement remains partial. This paper takes a step towards integration by establishing how internal and international migration precede one another in various sequenced relationships from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries. We apply sequence and cluster analysis to full retrospective migration histories collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2008–09 and 2017, for individuals born between 1950 and 1965. The results show that nearly all international migrants engage in internal mobility at some point in their lives. However, individual migration trajectories are delineated by the order of internal and international moves, the duration and timing of stays abroad, and the extent to which individuals engage in return international migration. Institutional and economic conditions shape the diversity of migration experiences. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 515-537 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2231913 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2231913 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:515-537 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2149844_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Glenn Sandström Author-X-Name-First: Glenn Author-X-Name-Last: Sandström Author-Name: Maria Stanfors Author-X-Name-First: Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Stanfors Title: Socio-economic status and the rise of divorce in Sweden: The case of the 1880–1954 marriage cohorts in Västerbotten Abstract: An established negative association between socio-economic status (SES) and divorce has applied to most Western nations since 1960. We expected a positive association between SES and divorce for low-divorce contexts historically because only individuals in higher social strata had the resources to overcome barriers to divorce. According to Goode’s socio-economic growth theory, this relationship was reversed as industrialization and modernization began removing the economic and normative barriers. Making use of longitudinal data from parish registers, we investigated SES and other micro-level determinants of divorce among men and women in northern Sweden who married between 1880 and 1954. Results indicated a positive association between SES and divorce among those who married 1880–1919, with the middle class, not the elite, featuring the highest divorce risks. This association changed for couples who married in the 1920s, for whom divorce became more common and the working class faced similar divorce risks to the higher social strata. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 417-435 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2149844 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2149844 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:417-435 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2233964_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Ashira Menashe-Oren Author-X-Name-First: Ashira Author-X-Name-Last: Menashe-Oren Author-Name: Guy Stecklov Author-X-Name-First: Guy Author-X-Name-Last: Stecklov Title: Age-specific sex ratios: Examining rural–urban variation within low- and middle-income countries Abstract: The balance of men and women in society, captured by sex ratios, determines key social and demographic phenomena. Previous research has explored sex ratios mainly at birth and up to age five at national level, whereas we address rural–urban gaps in sex ratios for all ages. Our measures are based on the United Nations data on rural and urban populations by age and sex for 112 low- and middle-income countries in 2015. We show that rural sex ratios are higher than urban sex ratios among children and older people, whereas at working ages, urban areas are dominated by males. Our analysis suggests that the urban transition itself is not driving the gap in rural–urban sex ratios. Rather, internal migration seems to be key in shaping rural–urban sex ratio divergence in sub-Saharan Africa, while both internal migration and mortality differentials appear to be the predominant mechanisms driving sex ratio gaps in Latin America. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 539-558 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2233964 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2233964 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:539-558 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2138521_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Miguel González-Leonardo Author-X-Name-First: Miguel Author-X-Name-Last: González-Leonardo Author-Name: Jeroen Spijker Author-X-Name-First: Jeroen Author-X-Name-Last: Spijker Title: The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020–31: A scenario approach Abstract: While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic’s effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain’s age structure. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 497-513 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2138521 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2138521 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:497-513 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2228288_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Letícia J. Marteleto Author-X-Name-First: Letícia J. Author-X-Name-Last: Marteleto Author-Name: Alexandre Gori Maia Author-X-Name-First: Alexandre Gori Author-X-Name-Last: Maia Author-Name: Cristina Guimarães Rodrigues Author-X-Name-First: Cristina Guimarães Author-X-Name-Last: Rodrigues Title: Climate and fertility amid a public health crisis Abstract: One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 437-458 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2228288 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2228288 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:437-458 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2222723_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Jesús-Daniel Zazueta-Borboa Author-X-Name-First: Jesús-Daniel Author-X-Name-Last: Zazueta-Borboa Author-Name: José Manuel Aburto Author-X-Name-First: José Manuel Author-X-Name-Last: Aburto Author-Name: Iñaki Permanyer Author-X-Name-First: Iñaki Author-X-Name-Last: Permanyer Author-Name: Virginia Zarulli Author-X-Name-First: Virginia Author-X-Name-Last: Zarulli Author-Name: Fanny Janssen Author-X-Name-First: Fanny Author-X-Name-Last: Janssen Title: Contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation in Europe Abstract: Much less is known about the sex gap in lifespan variation, which reflects inequalities in the length of life, than about the sex gap in life expectancy (average length of life). We examined the contributions of age groups and causes of death to the sex gap in lifespan variation for 28 European countries, grouped into five European regions. In 2010–15, males in Europe displayed a 6.8-year-lower life expectancy and a 2.3-year-higher standard deviation in lifespan than females, with clear regional differences. Sex differences in lifespan variation are attributable largely to higher external mortality among males aged 30–39, whereas sex differences in life expectancy are due predominantly to higher smoking-related and cardiovascular disease mortality among males aged 60–69. The distinct findings for the sex gap in lifespan variation and the sex gap in life expectancy provide additional insights into the survival differences between the sexes. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 475-496 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2222723 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2222723 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:475-496 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2144639_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Júlia Mikolai Author-X-Name-First: Júlia Author-X-Name-Last: Mikolai Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Title: Partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach Abstract: We study the interrelationships between partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrant women and female descendants of immigrants using the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We propose a novel multistate event history approach to analyse the outcomes of unpartnered, cohabiting, and married women. We find that the partnership and fertility behaviours of immigrants and descendants from European and Western countries are similar to those of native women: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. Those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g. South Asian countries) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean show the weakest link between partnership changes and fertility: some have births outside unions; some form a union and have children thereafter. Family patterns have remained relatively stable across migrant generations and birth cohorts, although marriage is being postponed in all groups. Our findings on immigrants support the socialization hypothesis, whereas those on descendants are in line with the minority subculture hypothesis. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 359-378 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2144639 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2144639 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:359-378 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2152478_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20 Author-Name: Alessandro Di Nallo Author-X-Name-First: Alessandro Author-X-Name-Last: Di Nallo Author-Name: Katya Ivanova Author-X-Name-First: Katya Author-X-Name-Last: Ivanova Author-Name: Nicoletta Balbo Author-X-Name-First: Nicoletta Author-X-Name-Last: Balbo Title: Repartnering of women in the United States: The interplay between motherhood and socio-economic status Abstract: We examine the socio-economic differentials in mothers’ and non-mothers’ repartnering behaviours following the dissolution of a co-residential (marital or cohabiting) union. Based on five waves of the National Survey of Family Growth (N = 11,479), we use discrete-time event history models, jointly modelling exit from a partnership and entry into a new union. Few differences are found for entry into direct marriage, which is a rarely observed event. However, when we examine women’s entry into cohabitation (a possible stepping stone to marriage), we observe: (1) a motherhood gap, where mothers are less likely to repartner than non-mothers; (2) a negative association between educational attainment and repartnering probability; and (3) the motherhood gap existing only for low-educated women. Supplementary analyses on the impact of the Great Recession demonstrate that whereas the economic cycle mattered for the repartnering of low-educated women, it made no difference for more highly educated women. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 399-416 Issue: 3 Volume: 77 Year: 2023 Month: 09 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2152478 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2152478 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:77:y:2023:i:3:p:399-416 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2272991_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Dipanwita Ghatak Author-X-Name-First: Dipanwita Author-X-Name-Last: Ghatak Author-Name: Soham Sahoo Author-X-Name-First: Soham Author-X-Name-Last: Sahoo Author-Name: Sudipa Sarkar Author-X-Name-First: Sudipa Author-X-Name-Last: Sarkar Author-Name: Varun Sharma Author-X-Name-First: Varun Author-X-Name-Last: Sharma Title: Who eats last? Intra-household gender inequality in food allocation among children in educationally backward areas of India Abstract: The practice of women eating after men is a common gender-inequitable food allocation mechanism among adults in Indian households and has been associated with poor health and nutritional outcomes for women. However, empirical evidence on whether a similar practice of girls eating after boys is prevalent among children is scarce. Using primary data from a household survey conducted in educationally backward areas of four Indian states, we provide new evidence of this practice among children. Almost 28 per cent of the sample households follow the mealtime custom of girls eating after boys. Scheduled Tribes and households with higher incomes are less likely to follow this practice. Other relevant factors include children’s relative ages by sex and an interplay between family size and children’s sex composition. While our findings may not be generalizable, they suggest an intersectionality between gender and other dimensions of inequality, namely social identity and economic class. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 63-77 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2272991 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2272991 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:63-77 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2317654_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: The Editors Author-X-Name-First: Author-X-Name-Last: The Editors Title: Anne Shepherd: An appreciation Journal: Population Studies Pages: 1-1 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2317654 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2024.2317654 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:1-1 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2160004_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Tiziana Leone Author-X-Name-First: Tiziana Author-X-Name-Last: Leone Author-Name: Heini Väisänen Author-X-Name-First: Heini Author-X-Name-Last: Väisänen Author-Name: Firman Witoelar Author-X-Name-First: Firman Author-X-Name-Last: Witoelar Title: Women’s fertility and allostatic load in the post-reproductive years: An analysis of the Indonesian Family Life Survey Abstract: We know little about the effects of the reproductive health burden in contexts where unsafe abortions, miscarriages, stillbirths, and low-quality maternal care are common. The aim of this study is to investigate the use of allostatic load to understand the impact of reproductive histories on later-life health. We applied path models to the Indonesian Family Life Survey with a sample of 2,001 women aged 40+. Although number of children was not associated with allostatic load, pregnancies not ending in live birth and parenthood before age 18 were both negatively associated with health. We also identified clear cohort and educational effects and a possible rural advantage. Our contribution is twofold: we highlight the importance of reproductive histories beyond live births on women’s later-life health in a context of increasing population ageing, and we demonstrate the applicability of using allostatic load to measure health outside the Global North. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 127-149 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2022.2160004 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2022.2160004 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:127-149 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2181383_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Ewa Batyra Author-X-Name-First: Ewa Author-X-Name-Last: Batyra Author-Name: Luca Maria Pesando Author-X-Name-First: Luca Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Pesando Title: Increases in child marriage among the poorest in Mali: ‘Reverse policies’ or data quality issues? Abstract: Child marriage is associated with adverse outcomes related to women’s well-being. Many countries have introduced laws banning this practice, and a number of studies have evaluated their impact. Scant research has focused on instances where countries have lowered the legal minimum age at marriage, even though such ‘reverse policies’ could result in stalled or uneven progress in eradicating child marriage. Using visualization techniques, regression analyses, and multiple robustness checks, we document changes in the prevalence of child marriage in Mali, where in 2011 the general minimum age at marriage of 18 was lowered to 16. Since 2011, the prevalence of child marriage has progressively increased among women with no education and women living in communities characterized by low local development. We reflect on the role that data collection processes may play in explaining some of these findings and stress how repealing existing provisions aiming to protect girls can have adverse consequences on the most vulnerable social strata. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 93-111 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2181383 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2181383 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:93-111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2197412_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Guido Alfani Author-X-Name-First: Guido Author-X-Name-Last: Alfani Author-Name: Marco Bonetti Author-X-Name-First: Marco Author-X-Name-Last: Bonetti Author-Name: Mattia Fochesato Author-X-Name-First: Mattia Author-X-Name-Last: Fochesato Title: Pandemics and socio-economic status. Evidence from the plague of 1630 in northern Italy Abstract: This paper investigates the biological, socio-economic, and institutional factors shaping the individual risk of death during a major pre-industrial epidemic. We use a micro-demographic database for an Italian city (Carmagnola) during the 1630 plague to explore in detail the survival dynamics of the population admitted to the isolation hospital (lazzaretto). We develop a theoretical model of admissions to the lazzaretto, for better interpretation of the observational data. We explore how age and sex shaped the individual risk of death, and we provide a one-of-a-kind study of the impact of socio-economic status. We report an inversion of the normal mortality gradient by status for those interned at the lazzaretto. The rich enjoyed a greater ability to make decisions about their hospitalization, but this backfired. Instead, the poor sent to the lazzaretto faced a relatively low risk of death because they enjoyed better conditions than they would have experienced outside the hospital. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 21-42 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2197412 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2197412 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:21-42 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2297687_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Jean Christophe Fotso Author-X-Name-First: Jean Christophe Author-X-Name-Last: Fotso Author-Name: John G. Cleland Author-X-Name-First: John G. Author-X-Name-Last: Cleland Author-Name: Elihou O. Adje Author-X-Name-First: Elihou O. Author-X-Name-Last: Adje Title: Cameroon’s slow fertility transition: A gender perspective Abstract: We interrogate the proposition that men’s attitudes have constrained the fertility transition in Cameroon, where fertility remains high and contraceptive use low despite much socio-economic progress. We use five Demographic and Health Surveys to compare trends in desired family size among young women and men and analyse matched monogamous couple data from the two most recent surveys to examine wives’ and husbands’ desires to stop childbearing and their relative influence on current contraceptive use. In 2018, average desired family size was 5.6 and 5.1, for young men and women respectively, and this difference (half a child) has not changed since 1998. Among matched couples, the proportions wanting to stop childbearing were similar in wives and their husbands, but wives perceived husbands to be much more pronatalist than themselves. Surprisingly, men’s own reported preferences were more closely associated with contraceptive use than wives’ perceptions of husbands’ preferences. We discerned little evidence that men’s attitudes have impeded reproductive change. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 79-91 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2297687 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2297687 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:79-91 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2239772_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Sumonkanti Das Author-X-Name-First: Sumonkanti Author-X-Name-Last: Das Author-Name: Bernard Baffour Author-X-Name-First: Bernard Author-X-Name-Last: Baffour Author-Name: Alice Richardson Author-X-Name-First: Alice Author-X-Name-Last: Richardson Title: Trends in chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh for small domains Abstract: Chronic childhood undernutrition, known as stunting, is an important population health problem with short- and long-term adverse outcomes. Bangladesh has made strides to reduce chronic childhood undernutrition, yet progress is falling short of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals targets. This study estimates trends in age-specific chronic childhood undernutrition in Bangladesh’s 64 districts during 1997–2018, using underlying direct estimates extracted from seven Demographic and Health Surveys in the development of small area time-series models. These models combine cross-sectional, temporal, and spatial data to predict in all districts in both survey and non-survey years. Nationally, there has been a steep decline in stunting from about three in five to one in three children. However, our results highlight significant inequalities in chronic undernutrition, with several districts experiencing less pronounced declines. These differences are more nuanced at the district-by-age level, with only districts in more socio-economically advantaged areas of Bangladesh consistently reporting declines in stunting across all age groups. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 43-61 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2239772 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2239772 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:43-61 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2174267_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Shubhankar Sharma Author-X-Name-First: Shubhankar Author-X-Name-Last: Sharma Author-Name: Jo Mhairi Hale Author-X-Name-First: Jo Mhairi Author-X-Name-Last: Hale Author-Name: Mikko Myrskylä Author-X-Name-First: Mikko Author-X-Name-Last: Myrskylä Author-Name: Hill Kulu Author-X-Name-First: Hill Author-X-Name-Last: Kulu Title: Cognitive impairment and partnership status in the United States, 1998–2016, by sex, race/ethnicity, and education Abstract: Cognitively impaired adults without a partner are highly disadvantaged, as partners constitute an important source of caregiving and emotional support. With the application of innovative multistate models to the Health and Retirement Study, this paper is the first to estimate joint expectancies of cognitive and partnership status at age 50 by sex, race/ethnicity, and education in the United States. We find that women live a decade longer unpartnered than men. Women are also disadvantaged as they experience three more years as both cognitively impaired and unpartnered than men. Black women live over twice as long as cognitively impaired and unpartnered compared with White women. Lower-educated men and women live around three and five years longer, respectively, as cognitively impaired and unpartnered than more highly educated men and women. This study addresses a novel facet of partnership and cognitive status dynamics and examines their variations by key socio-demographic factors. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 167-177 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2174267 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2174267 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:167-177 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2168298_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Adan Silverio-Murillo Author-X-Name-First: Adan Author-X-Name-Last: Silverio-Murillo Author-Name: Lauren Hoehn-Velasco Author-X-Name-First: Lauren Author-X-Name-Last: Hoehn-Velasco Author-Name: Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar Author-X-Name-First: Jose Roberto Author-X-Name-Last: Balmori de la Miyar Author-Name: Judith Senyancen Méndez Méndez Author-X-Name-First: Judith Senyancen Author-X-Name-Last: Méndez Méndez Title: The (temporary) Covid-19 baby bust in Mexico Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether fertility and newborn health changed during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico. We use national administrative data and an event-study design to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on fertility and newborn health characteristics. Our findings suggest that Mexico’s fertility declined temporarily as measured by conceptions that likely occurred during the stay-at-home order. Initially, the general fertility rate fell by 11–12 per cent but quickly rebounded and returned close to its original levels by the end of 2021. Newborn health also deteriorated during the pandemic. Instances of low birthweight and prematurity substantially increased, with both remaining elevated over the entire pandemic period. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 113-126 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2168298 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2168298 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:113-126 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2272983_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Adela Recio Alcaide Author-X-Name-First: Adela Author-X-Name-Last: Recio Alcaide Author-Name: César Pérez López Author-X-Name-First: César Author-X-Name-Last: Pérez López Author-Name: Miguel Ángel Ortega Author-X-Name-First: Miguel Ángel Author-X-Name-Last: Ortega Author-Name: Luisa N. Borrell Author-X-Name-First: Luisa N. Author-X-Name-Last: Borrell Author-Name: Francisco Bolúmar Author-X-Name-First: Francisco Author-X-Name-Last: Bolúmar Title: Is there an association between family members’ season of birth that could influence birth seasonality? Evidence from Spain and France Abstract: The number of births varies by season. Research on birth seasonality has shown that women’s season of birth somehow influences that of their children, but factors underlying the intergenerational transmission of birth seasonality remain unknown. With data from Spain and France, we analysed the possibility of transmission of birth season between generations, testing whether relatives tended to be born in the same season. Results indicated that there was an association—a similarity—between parents’ and children’s birth seasons, partially explaining the stability of seasonal patterns over time. This association also existed between parents’ birth seasons. While parents’ association is directly explained by an excess of marriages with spouses born in the same month, the overall association may be explained by two facts: different socio-demographic groups show differentiated birth patterns, and relatives share socio-demographic features. Birth season seems to be related to family characteristics, which should be controlled for when assessing birth-month effects on subsequent social/health outcomes. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 151-166 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2272983 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2272983 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:151-166 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 # input file: RPST_A_2190151_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a Author-Name: Lina Maria Sanchez-Cespedes Author-X-Name-First: Lina Maria Author-X-Name-Last: Sanchez-Cespedes Author-Name: Douglas Ryan Leasure Author-X-Name-First: Douglas Ryan Author-X-Name-Last: Leasure Author-Name: Natalia Tejedor-Garavito Author-X-Name-First: Natalia Author-X-Name-Last: Tejedor-Garavito Author-Name: Glenn Harry Amaya Cruz Author-X-Name-First: Glenn Harry Author-X-Name-Last: Amaya Cruz Author-Name: Gustavo Adolfo Garcia Velez Author-X-Name-First: Gustavo Adolfo Author-X-Name-Last: Garcia Velez Author-Name: Andryu Enrique Mendoza Author-X-Name-First: Andryu Enrique Author-X-Name-Last: Mendoza Author-Name: Yenny Andrea Marín Salazar Author-X-Name-First: Yenny Andrea Author-X-Name-Last: Marín Salazar Author-Name: Thomas Esch Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Esch Author-Name: Andrew J. Tatem Author-X-Name-First: Andrew J. Author-X-Name-Last: Tatem Author-Name: Mariana Ospina Bohórquez Author-X-Name-First: Mariana Author-X-Name-Last: Ospina Bohórquez Title: Social cartography and satellite-derived building coverage for post-census population estimates in difficult-to-access regions of Colombia Abstract: Effective government services rely on accurate population numbers to allocate resources. In Colombia and globally, census enumeration is challenging in remote regions and where armed conflict is occurring. During census preparations, the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics conducted social cartography workshops, where community representatives estimated numbers of dwellings and people throughout their regions. We repurposed this information, combining it with remotely sensed buildings data and other geospatial data. To estimate building counts and population sizes, we developed hierarchical Bayesian models, trained using nearby full-coverage census enumerations and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. We compared models to assess the relative contributions of community knowledge, remotely sensed buildings, and their combination to model fit. The Community model was unbiased but imprecise; the Satellite model was more precise but biased; and the Combination model was best for overall accuracy. Results reaffirmed the power of remotely sensed buildings data for population estimation and highlighted the value of incorporating local knowledge. Journal: Population Studies Pages: 3-20 Issue: 1 Volume: 78 Year: 2024 Month: 01 X-DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2190151 File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00324728.2023.2190151 File-Format: text/html File-Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers. Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:78:y:2024:i:1:p:3-20