FAIR.DES year V I DPER DUR g3 p15 n g2 gYR p8 p2YR Ig2 Ip8 demwins In d Id Ig3 Ip151md In1md demvote incum gnews inf partyWH pWHgnews pWHinf 1. year 1916 to 1992, by 4 2. V prop. dem. vote 3. I =1 if Dem. in White House, -1 if Rep. 4. DPER incumbent running 5. DUR duration 6. g3 avg ann grwth rte, prev 3 qrts 7. p15 avg ann inf rate, prev 15 qtrs 8. n quarters of good news 9. g2 avg ann grwth rte, prev 2 qrts 10. gYR ann grwth rte, prev year 11. p8 avg ann inf rate, prev 8 qtrs 12. p2YR inf rte over 2 yr period 13. Ig2 I*g2 14. Ip8 I*p8 15. demwins =1 if V > .5 16. In I*n 17. d =1 in 1920, 1944,1948 18. Id I*d 19. Ig3 I*g3 20. Ip151md I*p15*(1-d) 21. In1md I*n*(1-d) 22. demvote = V 23. incum = DPER 24. gnews = n 25. inf = p15 26. partyWH = I 27. pWHgnews partyWH*gnews 28. pWHinf partyWH*inf