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Abstract: We find that U.S. corporations' demand for liquidity is sensitive to two important factors: uncertainty facing the firm and the quality of corporate governance. Following prior research, we find that both factors have important influences on firms' cash holdings. Our results also indicate that the interactions between uncertainty and governance measures are significant. From a policy perspective, these new findings indicate both governance and the nature of uncertainty may play an important role in managing liquidity risks. Policy recommendations may not only be limited to changes in financial policy but may also include changes in corporate governance.
725. Zhijie Xiao and Roger Koenker (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign), "Conditional Quantile Estimation for GARCH Models" (03/2009: PDF)
Abstract: Conditional quantile estimation is an essential ingredient in modern risk management. Although GARCH processes have proven highly successful in modeling financial data it is generally recognized that it would be useful to consider a broader class of processes capable of representing more flexibly both asymmetry and tail behavior of conditional returns distributions. In this paper, we study estimation of conditional quantiles for GARCH models using quantile regression. Quantile regression estimation of GARCH models is highly nonlinear; we propose a simple and effective two-step approach of quantile regression estimation for linear GARCH time series. In the first step, we employ a quan- tile autoregression sieve approximation for the GARCH model by combining information over different quantiles; second stage estimation for the GARCH model is then carried out based on the first stage minimum distance estimation of the scale process of the time series. Asymptotic properties of the sieve approximation, the minimum distance estimators, and the final quantile regression estimators employing generated regressors are studied. These results are of independent interest and have applications in other quantile regression settings. Monte Carlo and empirical application results indicate that the proposed estimation methods outperform some existing conditional quantile estimation methods.
724. Christopher F Baum and Chi Wan (Carleton University) " Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Credit Default Swap Spreads" (11/2009: PDF)
Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the spreads of credit default swaps (CDS). While existing literature acknowledges the importance of the levels of macroeconomic factors in determining CDS spreads, we show that the second moments of these factors--macroeconomic uncertainty--predict CDS spreads even in the presence of traditional macroeconomic factors such as the risk-free rate and the Treasury term spread.
723. Matteo Iacoviello and Marina Pavan (University College Dublin), "Housing and Debt Over the Life Cycle and Over the Business Cycle" (11/2009: PDF)
Abstract: We present an equilibrium life-cycle model of housing where nonconvex adjustment costs lead households to adjust their housing choice infrequently and by large amounts when they do so. In the cross-sectional dimension, the model matches the wealth distribution, the age profiles of consumption, homeownership, and mortgage debt, and data on the frequency of housing adjustment. In the time-series dimension, the model accounts for the procyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and for the procyclical behavior of household debt. We use a calibrated version of our model to ask the following question: what are the consequences for aggregate volatility of an increase in household income risk and a decrease in downpayment requirements? We distinguish between an early period, the 1950s through the 1970s, when household income risk was relatively small and loan-to-value ratios were low, and a late period, the 1980s through today, with high household income risk and high loan-to-value ratios. In the early period, precautionary saving is small, wealth-poor people are close to their maximum borrowing limit, and housing investment, homeownership and household debt closely track aggregate productivity. In the late period, precautionary saving is larger, wealth-poor people borrow less than the maximum and become more cautious in response to aggregate shocks. As a consequence, the correlation between debt and economic activity on the one hand, and the sensitivity of housing investment to aggregate shocks on the other, are lower, as is found the data. Quantitatively, our model can explain: (one) 45 percent of the reduction in the volatility of household investment; (two) the decline in the correlation between household debt and economic activity; (three) about 10 percent of the reduction in the volatility of GDP.
722. Fabio Ghironi, Jaewoo Lee (IMF) and Alessandro Rebucci (Inter-American Development Bank), "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment" (10/2009, PDF)
Abstract: International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country's net foreign asset position through the "valuation channel" of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country's external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation channel theoretically in a dynamic equilibrium portfolio model with international trade in equity that encompasses complete and incomplete asset market scenarios. By separating asset prices and quantities in the definition of net foreign assets, we can characterize the first-order dynamics of both valuation effects and net foreign equity holdings. First-order excess returns are unanticipated and i.i.d. in our model, but capital gains and losses on equity positions feature persistent, anticipated dynamics in response to productivity shocks. The separation of prices and quantities in net foreign assets also enables us to characterize fully the role of capital gains and losses versus the current account in the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates. Specifically, we disentangle the roles of excess returns, capital gains, and portfolio adjustment for consumption risk sharing when financial markets are incomplete, showing how these different channels contribute to dampening (or amplifying) the impact response of the cross-country consumption differential to shocks and to keeping it constant in subsequent periods.
721. Hideo Konishi and Chiu Yu Ko, "Profit-Maximizing Matchmaker" (10/2009, PDF)
Abstract: This paper considers a matchmaker game in the Shapley-Shubik (1971) (one-to-one) assignment problem. Each firm proposes how much it is willing to pay each worker if they are matched. Each worker also proposes which salary she is willing to accept from each firm if they are matched. The matchmaker chooses a matching to maximize profit (the sum of the difference between the offering and asking salaries from each matched firm-worker). First, we show that Nash equilibrium may generate inefficient outcomes, but the matchmaker's profit is always zero in every Nash equilibrium. Second, we show that the sets of stable assignments and strong Nash equilibria are equivalent. These results extend to the Kelso-Crawford (1982) many-to-one assignment problem. Interestingly, in the one-to-one matching case, our results are closely related to the common agency game by Bernheim and Whinston (1986), while in the many-to-one assignment problem, such relationships break down completely.
720. Anthony Creane (Michigan State University) and Hideo Konishi, "Goldilocks and the Licensing Firm: Choosing a Partner when Rivals are Heterogeneous" (11/2009, PDF)
Abstract: Markets are often characterized with firms of differing capabilities with more efficient firms licensing their technology to lesser firms. We examine the effects that the amount of the technology transferred, and the characteristics of the partner have on this licensing. We find that a partial technology transfer can be the joint-profit minimizing transfer; no such transfer then is superior. However, under weakly concave demand, a complete transfer always increases joint profits so long as there are at least three firms in the industry. We also establish a "Goldilocks" condition in partner selection: it is neither too efficient nor too inefficient. Unfortunately, profitable transfers between sufficiently inefficient firms reduce welfare, while transfers from relatively efficient firms increase welfare. However, an efficient firm might not select the least efficient partner, though it is the social-welfare-maximizing partner.
719. Hideo Konishi and Se-il Mun (Kyoto University), "Carpooling and Congestion Pricing: HOV and HOT Lanes" (11/2009, PDF)
Abstract: It is often argued in the US that HOV (high occupancy vehicle) lanes are wasteful and should be converted to HOT (high occupancy vehicles and toll lanes). In this paper, we construct a simple model of commuters using a highway with multiple lanes, in which commuters are heterogeneous in their carpool organization costs. We first look at the HOV lanes and investigate under what conditions introducing HOV lanes is socially beneficial. Then we examine whether converting HOV lanes to HOT lanes improves the efficiency of road use. It is shown that the result depends on functional form and parameter values. We also discuss the effect of alternative policies: simple congestion pricing without lane division; and congestion pricing with HOV lanes. The analysis using specific functional form is presented to explicitly obtain the conditions determining the rankings of HOV, HOT, and other policies based on aggregate social cost.
718. Muriel Niederle (Stanford University), Alvin E. Roth (Harvard University) and M. Utku Ünver, "Unraveling Results from Comparable Demand and Supply: An Experimental Investigation" (09/2008: PDF)
Abstract: Markets sometimes unravel, with offers becoming inefficiently early. Often this is attributed to competition arising from an imbalance of demand and supply, typically excess demand for workers. However this presents a puzzle, since unraveling can only occur when firms are willing to make early offers and workers are willing to accept them. We present a model and experiment in which workers’ quality becomes known only in the late part of the market. However, in equilibrium, matching can occur (inefficiently) early only when there is comparable demand and supply: a surplus of applicants, but a shortage of high quality applicants.
717. Tayfun Sönmez and M. Utku Ünver, "Matching, Allocation, and Exchange of Discrete Resources" (08/2008: PDF)
716. Hervé Crès (Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris) and M. Utku Ünver, "Ideology and Existence of 50%-Majority Equilibria in Multidimensional Spatial Voting Models" (09/2008: PDF)
Abstract: When aggregating individual preferences through the majority rule in an n-dimensional spatial voting model, the 'worst-case' scenario is a social choice configuration where no political equilibrium exists unless a super majority rate as high as 1 − 1/n is adopted. In this paper we assume that a lower d-dimensional (d < n) linear map spans the possible candidates’ platforms. These d 'ideological' dimensions imply some linkages between the n political issues. We randomize over these linkages and show that there almost surely exists a 50%-majority equilibria in the above worst-case scenario, when n grows to infinity. Moreover the equilibrium is the mean voter. The speed of convergence (toward 50%) of the super majority rate guaranteeing existence of equilibrium is computed for d = 1 and 2.
715. Marek Pycia (UCLA) and M. Utku Ünver, "A Theory of House Allocation and Exchange Mechanisms" (09/2009: PDF)
Abstract: We study the allocation and exchange of indivisible objects without monetary transfers. In market design literature, some problems that fall in this category are the house allocation problem with and without existing tenants, and the kidney exchange problem. We introduce a new class of direct mechanisms that we call "trading cycles with brokers and owners," and show that (i) each mechanism in the class is coalitional strategy-proof and Pareto-efficient, and (ii) each coalitional strategy-proof and Pareto-efficient direct mechanism is in the class. As corollaries, we obtain new characterizations in the aforementioned market design problems.
714. Francesco Giavazzi (Bocconi University), Fabio Schiantarelli and Michel Serafinelli (University of California, Berkeley), "Culture, Policies and Labor Market Outcomes" (09/2009: PDF)
Abstract: We study whether cultural attitudes towards gender, the young, and leisure are significant determinants of the evolution over time of the employment rates of women and of the young, and of hours worked in OECD countries. Beyond controlling for a larger menu of policies, institutions and structural characteristics of the economy than has been done so far, our analysis improves upon existing studies of the role of "culture" for labor market outcomes by dealing explicitly with the endogeneity of attitudes, policies and institutions, and by allowing for the persistent nature of labor market outcomes. When we do all this we Önd that culture still matters for women employment rates and for hours worked. However, policies and other institutional or structural characteristics are also important. Attitudes towards youth independence, however, do not appear to be important in explaining the employment rate of the young. In the case of women employment rates, the policy variable that is significant along with attitudes, is the OECD index of employment protection legislation. For hours worked the policy variables that play a role, along with attitudes, are the tax wedge and unemployment benefits. The quantitative impact of these policy variables is such that changes in policies have at least the potential to undo the effect of variations in cultural traits on labor market outcomes.
713. Peter N. Ireland, "Stochastic Growth in the United States and Euro Area" (09/2009: PDF)
Abstract: This paper constructs a two-country stochastic growth model in which neutral and investment-specific technology shocks are nonstationary but cointegrated across economies. It uses this model to interpret data showing that while real investment has grown faster than real consumption in the United States since 1970, the opposite has been true in the Euro Area. The model, when estimated with these data, reveals that the EA missed out on the rapid investment-specific technological change enjoyed in the US during the 1990s; the EA, however, experienced more rapid neutral technological progress while the US economy stagnated during the 1970s.
712. Christopher F Baum, Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield) and Oleksandr Talavera (University of East Anglia), "Corporate Liquidity Management and Future Investment Expenditures" (09/2009: PDF)
Abstract: This paper empirically examines whether additional future fixed capital and R&D investment expenditures induce firms to accumulate cash reserves while considering the role of market imperfections. Implementing a dynamic framework on a panel of US, UK and German companies, we find that firms make larger additions to cash holdings when they plan additional future R&D rather than fixed capital investment expenditures. This behavior is particularly prevalent among small and non-dividend paying firms that are heavily involved in R&D activities. We also show that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is substantially higher for financially constrained firms than for their unconstrained counterparts in the US and the UK, but only marginally higher in Germany.
711. Sushil Bikhchandani (UCLA) and Uzi Segal, "Transitive Regret" (rev. 10/2009: PDF)
Abstract: Preferences may arise from regret, i.e., from comparisons with alternatives forgone by the decision maker. We ask whether regret-based behavior is consistent with non-expected utility theories of transitive choice. We show that the answer is no. If choices are governed by ex ante regret and elation then non-expected utility preferences must be intransitive.
710. Hideo Konishi, "Efficient Mixed Clubs: Nonlinear-Pricing Equilibria with Entrepreneurial Managers" (rev. 9/2009: PDF; forthcoming, Japanese Economic Review)
Abstract: Scotchmer and Wooders (1987) show that efficient clubs are homogeneous when consumers are divisible in Berglas's (1976) anonymous crowding model. However, if consumers are not divisible or if clubs have multiple facilities with economies of scope, mixed clubs are efficient. In such a model, we consider clubs with multiple membership policies for different types of consumers, and show the existence and efficiency of equilibrium with nonlinear policies. We employ entrepreneurial equilibrium, an equilibrium concept with profit-seeking entrepreneurs. In our model, club managers and members of clubs care only about the members' actions, not their types. The equilibrium is efficient in our adverse selection model due to this "anonymity" of crowding effects. Our theorem can be regarded as showing the existence of a core allocation that satisfies envy-free property in the absence of nonanonymous crowding effects.
709. Ted Juhl (University of Kansas) and Zhijie Xiao, "Tests for Changing Mean with Monotonic Power" (06/2009: PDF)
Abstract: Several widely used tests for a changing mean exhibit nonmonotonic power in finite samples due to "incorrect" estimation of nuisance parameters under the alternative. In this paper, we study the issue of nonmonotonic power in testing for changing mean. We investigate the asymptotic power properties of the tests using a new framework where alternatives are characterized as having "large" changes. The asymptotic analysis provides a theoretical explanation to the power problem. Modified tests that have monotonic power against a wide range of alternatives of structural change are proposed. Instead of estimating the nuisance parameters based on ordinary least squares residuals, the proposed tests use modified estimators based on nonparametric regression residuals. It is shown that tests based on the modified long-run variance estimator provide an improved rate of divergence of the tests under the alternative of a change in mean. Tests for structural breaks based on such an estimator are able to remain consistent while still retaining the same asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of constant mean.
708. Zhijie Xiao, "Quantile Cointegrating Regression" (01/2009: PDF)
Abstract: Quantile regression has important applications in risk management, portfolio optimization, and asset pricing. The current paper studies estimation, inference and financial applications of quantile regression with cointegrated time series. In addition, a new cointegration model with varying coefficients is proposed. In the proposed model, the value of cointegrating coefficients may be affected by the shocks and thus may vary over the innovation quantile. The proposed model may be viewed as a stochastic cointegration model which includes the conventional cointegration model as a special case. It also provides a useful complement to cointegration models with (G)ARCH effects. Asymptotic properties of the proposed model and limiting distribution of the cointegrating regression quantiles are derived. In the presence of endogenous regressors, fully-modified quantile regression estimators and augmented quantile cointegrating regression are proposed to remove the second order bias and nuisance parameters. Regression Wald test are constructed based on the fully modified quantile regression estimators. An empirical application to stock index data highlights the potential of the proposed method.
707. Yingying Dong (California State University, Fullerton) and Arthur Lewbel, "Nonparametric Identification of a Binary Random Factor in Cross Section Data" (06/2009: PDF)
Abstract: Suppose V and U are two independent mean zero random variables, where V has an asymmetric distribution with two mass points and U has a symmetric distribution. We show that the distributions of V and U are nonparametrically identified just from observing the sum V+U, and provide a rate root n estimator. We apply these results to the world income distribution to measure the extent of convergence over time, where the values V can take on correspond to country types, i.e., wealthy versus poor countries. We also extend our results to include covariates X, showing that we can nonparametrically identify and estimate cross section regression models of the form Y=g(X,D*)+U, where D* is an unobserved binary regressor.
706. Eyal Dvir and Ken Rogoff (Harvard University), "The Three Epochs of Oil" (04/2009: PDF)
Abstract: We test for changes in price behavior in the longest crude oil price series available (1861-2008). We find strong evidence for changes in persistence and in volatility of price across three well defined periods. We argue that historically, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world economy coincided with uncertainty regarding access to supply. We present a modified commodity storage model that fully incorporates demand, and further can accommodate both transitory and permanent shocks. We show that the role of storage when demand is subject to persistent growth shocks is speculative, instead of its classic mitigating role. This result helps to account for the increased volatility of oil price we observe in these periods.
705. Christopher F Baum, Mustafa Caglayan (University of Sheffield) and Oleksandr Talavera (University of East Anglia), "Parliamentary Election Cycles and the Turkish Banking Sector" (rev. 11/2009: PDF)
Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of parliamentary election cycles on the Turkish banking system. Using annual bank-level data representing all banks in Turkey during 1963-2005, we find that there are meaningful differences in the structure of assets, liabilities and financial performance across different stages of the parliamentary election cycle. However, we find that government-owned banks operate similarly to both domestic and foreign-owned private sector banks before, during and after elections. Our estimates also show that government-owned banks underperform their domestic and foreign-owned private sector counterparts.
704. Eugene Choo (University of Calgary), Shannon Seitz and Aloysius Siow (University of Toronto), "The Collective Marriage Matching Model: Identification, Estimation and Testing" (08/2008)
Abstract: We develop and estimate an empirical collective model with endogenous marriage formation, participation, and family labor supply. Intra-household transfers arise endogenously as the transfers that clear the marriage market. The intra-household allocation can be recovered from observations on marriage decisions. Introducing the marriage market in the collective model allows us to independently estimate transfers from labor supplies and from marriage decisions. We esti- mate a semi-parametric version of our model using 2000 US Census data. Estimates of the model using marriage data are much more consistent with the theoretical predictions than estimates derived from labor supply.
703. James E. Anderson, "Commercial Policy in a Predatory World" (05/2008)
Abstract: Predation---extortion or theft---imposes significant endogenous costs on trade, with rich implications for trade policy. The model of this paper shows that the response of trade to liberalization depends on the strength of enforcement against predators. Efficient commercial policy may either tax or subsidize trade. The Mercantilist predilection for trade monopoly and for subsidy has a rationale. Insecurity induces an international externality alternative that of the standard terms of trade effect. Tolerance or intolerance of smuggling can be rational depending on the weakness or strength of enforcement, illustrated by the switch from the former to the latter by Britain in regard to its North American colonies.
702. James E. Anderson, "Consistent Trade Policy Aggregation" (02/2008; forthcoming, International Economic Review)
Abstract: Much empirical work requires the aggregation of policies. This paper provides methods of policy aggregation that are consistent with two common objectives of empirical work. One is to preserve real income. The other is to preserve the real volume of activity in one or more parts of the economy. Trade policy aggregation is an acute example of the aggregation problem with thousands of highly dispersed trade barriers to be aggregated. An application to India shows that the standard atheoretic method of aggregation is seriously misleading compared to the consistent method.
701. James E. Anderson, "Terrorism, Trade and Public Policy" (12/2008)
Abstract: Are bigger markets safer? How should government policy respond to terrorist threats? Trade draws potential terrorists and economic predators into productive activity, but trade also draws terrorist attacks. Larger trade reduces the risk of terrorist attack when the wage elasticity is high, associated with low ratios of predators to prey and high wages; but it may increase the risk of terrorist attack when the wage elasticity is low, associated with high ratios of predators to prey. Anti-terrorist trade policy should always promote trade in simultaneous play. Government first mover advantage and inelastic wage may imply trade restriction. Tolerance of smuggling may improve security. Better enforcement should ordinarily be provided for bigger, inherently safer and higher wage markets.
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