{smcl}
{* 15jul2001}{...}
{hline}
help for {hi:nharvey}{right:(StataList distribution 17 July 2001)}
{hline}
{title:Nyblom-Harvey panel test of common stochastic trends}
{p 8 14}{cmd:nharvey} {it:varname}
[{cmd:if} {it:exp}] [{cmd:in} {it:range}] [ , {cmdab:V:lags({it:numlist})} {cmdab:t:rend}
{cmd:nolrv} ]
{p}{cmd:nharvey} is for use with panel data. You must {cmd:tsset} your
data before using {cmd:nharvey}, using the panel form of {cmd:tsset}; see help {help tsset}.
{p} {it:varname} may contain time-series operators; see help {help varlist}.
{title:Description}
{p}{cmd:nharvey} estimates one form of the test of common stochastic trends developed by
Nyblom and Harvey (NH, 2000). The test is of the validity of a specified value of the rank
of the covariance matrix of the disturbances driving the multivariate random walk. This
rank is equal to the number of common trends, or levels, in the series. As NH show, "this
test is very simple insofar as it does not require any models to be estimated, even if
serial correlation is present." (p.176) The special case calculated by {cmd:nharvey}
is that of the rank ({cmd:K} in NH' terms) equalling zero, which may be taken as a test
that there are no common trends among the variables. NH state that "common trends imply
cointegration, and vice versa." Thus a failure to reject the null hypothesis of zero
common trends is also an indication that the variables do not form a cointegrated
combination.
The test may be considered as a generalization of the Nyblom and Makelainen (1983) and
Kwiatkowski et al. (1992, {help kpss}) univariate tests for stationarity of a series.
Those tests are of the null hypothesis that the series is stationary, or stationary
around a deterministic trend, against the alternative that a random walk component
is present. {cmd:nharvey} considers the same structure in the context of multiple
time series. By default the routine calculates the test statistic for both IID errors
and errors allowed to be serially correlated, using an estimate of the long-run
variance derived from the spectral density matrix at frequency zero.
The critical values for {cmd:nharvey} for the constant and trend case are tabulated
in NH, 2000. They show that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic depends
only on the number of series (N) and the hypothesized number of common trends.
The critical values for ({cmd:K=0}) of NH Tables 1 and 2 have been extended for
additional values of N via simulation of the asymptotic distribution (programs
available on request).
{cmd:nharvey} may be extended to test the hypothesis that the rank of the covariance
matrix, ({cmd:K}) takes on a certain value, less than N (the number of series),
against the alternative that it has a greater value. That extension is left to future
development.
{p}
{title:Options}
{p 0 4}{cmd:trend} includes a time trend in the model (NH Table 2 for K=0).
{p 0 4}{cmd:vlags} specifies a list of lags to be used in calculating the long-run
variance. If this option is not specified, {cmd:m}, the truncation point in NH Eqn. 16,
is calculated as T^0.25. If a list of lags is provided (perhaps with a local macro),
the long-run variance matrix and resulting test statistic is calculated for each value
of vlags.
{p 0 4}{cmd:nolrv} omits the calculation of the statistic using a long-run variance
estimator. For a large sample size (T), the calculation of this statistic involves
a very sizable amount of computation, and the routine will be very slow.
{title:Examples}
{p 8 12}{inp:.} {stata "use http://fmwww.bc.edu/ec-p/data/hayashi/sheston91.dta,clear":use http://fmwww.bc.edu/ec-p/data/hayashi/sheston91.dta,clear}
{p 8 12}{inp:.} {stata "nharvey rgdppc if country<11": nharvey rgdppc if country<11}
{p 8 12}{inp:.} {stata "nharvey rgdppc if country<11, vlag(2(2)6)": nharvey rgdppc if country<11, vlag(2(2)6)}
{p 8 12}{inp:.} {stata "nharvey D.rgdppc if country<11, trend": nharvey D.rgdppc if country<11, trend}
{title:References}
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P. and Y. Shin. Testing the
null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root:
How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of
Econometrics, 54, 1992, 159-178.
Nyblom, Jukka and Andrew Harvey. Tests of common stochastic trends. Econometric
Theory, 16, 2000, 176-199.
Nyblom, Jukka, and T. Makelainen. Comparison of tests for the presence of
random walk coefficients in a simple linear model. Journal of the American
Statistical Association, 78, 1983, 856-864.
{title:Acknowledgements}
We thank Jukka Nyblom for clarifications on the calculation of critical
values for the routine, and pointing out typographical errors in the article. We are
also very grateful to Nina Jones for detecting and diagnosing an error in the
computations and benchmarking our corrected code against her MATLAB code.
Remaining errors are our own.
{title:Authors}
Christopher F Baum, Boston College, USA, baum@bc.edu
Fabian Bornhorst, European University Institute, Italy, Fabian.Bornhorst@iue.it
{title:Also see}
{p 0 19}On-line: {help kpss} (if installed), {help hadrilm} (if installed),
{help madfuller} (if installed), {help levinlin} (if installed)