function [tpp, tppsig] = phillips (se2, t2, resid, rss, sigma, obs) %PHILLIPS Phillips-Perron test of the unit-root hypothesis in a Dickey-Fuller regression % % [TPP, TPPSIG] = PHILLIPS (SE2, T2, RESID, RSS, SIGMA, OBS) % % - computes the Phillips-Perron (Phillips, 1987, Phillips & Perron, 1988) % autocorrelation/heteroskedasticity corrected t-ratio TPP on the unit-root % coefficient in a Dickey-Fuller or an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979) regression, and % % - evaluates its significance level TPPSIG, % % using the following arguments from (A)DF the regression (which can be taken from the % output of the author's ADFREG m-function): % % SE2 = the estimated standard errors of the unit-root coefficient % T2 = the corresponding t-ratio % RESID = the (row vector) of residuals % RSS = the residual sum of squares % SIGMA = the estimated standard error of the residuals % OBS = the number of observations of the regression % % Usage: reject the null of a unit root, even in the presence of serial correlation % and/or heteroskedasticity, if tpp is statistically significant. % % REQUIRES the author's DFCRIT m-function to compute TPPSIG. % % The author assumes no responsibility for errors or damage resulting from usage. All % rights reserved. Usage of the programme in applications and alterations of the code % should be referenced. This script may be redistributed if nothing has been added or % removed and nothing is charged. Positive or negative feedback would be appreciated. % Copyright (c) 6 April 1998 by Ludwig Kanzler % Department of Economics, University of Oxford % Postal: Christ Church, Oxford OX1 1DP, U.K. % E-mail: ludwig.kanzler@economics.oxford.ac.uk % Homepage: http://users.ox.ac.uk/~econlrk % $ Revision: 1.03 $$ Date: 15 September 1998 $ % First determine the number of autocovariances of the residuals to be used, using the % "rule of thumb" proposed by Schwert, 1987 (see also Diebold & Nerlove, 1990): covs = fix(4*(obs/100)^0.25); % Then compute the Newey & West (1987) estimator accordingly: nw = rss; for j = 1 : covs nw = nw + 2*(1-j/(covs+1))*(resid(1:end-j)'*resid(j+1:end)); end nw = nw/obs; % Finally, "apply" the NW estimator and some of the above regression output to the % original t-ratio, thus obtaining the Phillips-Perron statistic, which follows the % tabulated Dickey-Fuller distribution, and obtain its statistical significance: tpp = sqrt(rss/obs / nw) * t2 - 1/2* (nw - rss/obs)/sqrt(nw) * obs*se2/sigma; if nargout == 2 tppsig = dfcrit (tpp, obs); end % End of function. % REFERENCES: % % Dickey, David & Wayne Fuller (1979), "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive % Time Series With a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. % 74, no. 366 (June), pp. 427-431 % % Diebold, Francis & Marc Nerlove (1990), "Unit Roots in Economic Time Series: A % Selective Survey", in George Rhodes Jr. & Thomas Fomby, eds., "Advances in % Econometrics: A Research Annual", vol. 8 ("Co-integration, Spurious Regressions, and % Unit Roots"), JAI Press, Greenwich, Connecticut, pp. 3-69 % % Newey, Whitney & Kenneth West (1987), "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, % Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix", Econometrica, % vol. 55, no. 3 (May), pp. 703-708 % % Phillips, Peter (1987), "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root", Econometrica, vol. % 55, no. 2 (March), pp. 277-301 % % Phillips, Peter & Pierre Perron (1988), "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series % Regression", Biometrika, vol. 75, no. 2 (June), pp. 335-346 % % Schwert, William (1989), "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigationī, Journal of % Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 7, no. 2 (April), pp. 147-159 % This implementation of the test follows the theoretical exposition in Hamilton, 1994, % pp. 506-515, and Mills, 1993, pp. 54-55: % % Hamilton, James (1994), "Time Series Analysis", Princeton University Press, Princeton, % New Jersey % % Mills, Terence (1993), "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series", Cambridge % University Press, Cambridge % End of file.