*! version 1.0 31ene2017

Title

pobrezaECU -- Predict poverty and extreme poverty for Ecuador.

Syntax

pobrezaECU year quarter

Arguments*
year represent the year of the survey (only integers greater or equal to 2007)

quarter represent the quarter of the survey (only integers between 1 and 4)

*These arguments are strictly required.

Description

pobrezaECU predicts the income poverty and extreme income poverty, a year
ahead, for the Ecuadorean economy, based on the quaterly household survey "ENEMDU".

Options

Options not allowed.

Remarks

Due to the difficulties of forecasting and/or predicting the evolution of any
variable, pobrezaECU shows four estimates for the poverty and extreme
poverty. Each estimate is related which an specific phase of the
real bussiness cicle of the Ecuadorean economy.

The program has an in-sample average error of 0.67 percent points.

Examples

Example - Predicting poverty for the fourth quarter of 2016

For this example you should use the ENEMDU of december 2015. It can be
downloaded from www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec

. pobrezaECU 2015 4

This command will show the following information:

Pobreza 2015-4T: 23.28

Pobreza 2016-4T:

Recuperacion 23.06
Crecimiento 22.06
Dec. Sobre tendencia 21.52
Dec. bajo tendencia 24.82

This values represent the poverty prediction for 2016-4T

Authors

Daniel Jaramillo Calderonn, jaramillocalderondc@gmail.com
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Ecuador

Sergio Guerra Reyes, sergio_guerra@hks13.harvard.edu
Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Ecuador