Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 1
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525417
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:1-1
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abraham Akkerman
Author-X-Name-First: Abraham
Author-X-Name-Last: Akkerman
Title: A problem in household composition
Abstract:
Distinction made between household-persons and household-markers is
formalized in the notion of nested populations. This leads to an extension
of the Leslie model into a formulation of growth for both population and
households. The extended model involves the matrix presentation of
household composition where ratios of household-persons who are age 0, per
household-marker, function as surrogate values for fertility rates. The
extended model describes change over time in the distribution of
population by age, and in the distribution of households by age of
household-marker, or household-head. The model involves the inversion of a
nonnegative matrix, and is feasible only if it yields, projected over
time, nonnegative entries in vectors representing distribution of
population by age, and distribution of household-heads by age. Conditions
for the feasibility of the extended model are discussed, and a sufficient
condition for feasibility over a single interval is identified.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 3-18
Issue: 1
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Leslie model, household composition, household growth, population growth, fertility, nonnegative matrices,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525418
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:3-18
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Young Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Young
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Robert Schoen
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen
Title: Populations with quadratic exponential growth
Abstract:
Stable population models, based on fertility and mortality rates that do
not change over time, are too unrealistic and inflexible to capture the
dynamics of many observed populations. Dynamic models, which allow vital
rates to change over time, are needed to systematically analyze such
populations. Here we examine dynamic—hyperstable—models with
increasing or decreasing vital rates, providing the first detailed
analysis of a closed form model of monotonic demographic change. Using two
different approaches, we demonstrate how exponentiated quadratic birth
trajectories are related to exponentially increasing vital rates. Focusing
on the plausible assumption of a fixed proportional distribution of births
by age of mother, we show how convergence to hyperstability parallels
convergence to classical stability. Our analysis focuses on net maternity
rates, allowing considerable flexibility in patterns of change in either
fertility or mortality. Under the assumption of constant mortality over
time, we specify the hyperstable population's age structure and its
relationship to its associated stable population at every point in time.
The hyperstable and associated stable populations are in dynamic
equilibrium, as the Kullback distance, which measures the degree the two
age distributions differ, remains constant over time. The exponentiated
quadratic provides a straightforward model of equilibrated change. Its
flexibility and relatively simple structure give it significant potential
as an analytical tool.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 19-33
Issue: 1
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Stability, hyperstability, changing rates, dynamic models, demographic equilibrium,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525419
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:19-33
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Schoen
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen
Author-Name: Young Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Young
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: Stabilization, birth waves, and the surge in the elderly
Abstract:
Substantial regularities characterize the transition to stability that
follows a shift from one set of vital rates to another. The new vital,
rates interact with the population's initial age composition and generate
birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the ratio of
ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable net maternity.
A greater change in growth and a later stable net maternity pattern
produce larger fluctuations in the number of births. Stabilization begins
at the youngest ages and proceeds upward. Sixty years after the shift, the
birth waves have largely disappeared and the proportion under age 15
approximates the stable level implied by the new rates. Those patterns are
manifest in the stabilization of both observed and Coale-Demeny model
stable populations. When fertility falls, the new stable population has a
larger fraction at all ages above (approximately) 30, with greater changes
characterizing the extremes of life. Fifteen years after the fall, there
is a trough in the number at ages 0-14. Sixty years after the fall, when
the largest pre-decline cohort is age 60-74 and the smallest post-decline
cohort is age 45-59, there is a surge in the relative size of the elderly
population. Thus after two generations, the birth waves produced by a
rapid decline in fertility accentuate the effects of population aging.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 35-53
Issue: 1
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Stable population, waves, transition, growth rate,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525420
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:35-53
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: K. N. S. Yadava
Author-X-Name-First: K. N. S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Yadava
Author-Name: S. N. Yadava
Author-X-Name-First: S. N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Yadava
Author-Name: D. Sarin
Author-X-Name-First: D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sarin
Title: Population growth under changed fertility schedule in stability conditions
Abstract:
Some formulae for population projection have been derived under stability
conditions. The proposed formulae are also illustrated with some numerical
values of the parameters involved therein. The merits and shortcomings are
also discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 55-65
Issue: 1
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Stable and stationary populations, birth trajectory, maternity function, fertility schedule, gradual change,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525421
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:1:p:55-65
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Carl Schmertmann
Author-X-Name-First: Carl
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmertmann
Author-Name: Diana Oya Sawyer
Author-X-Name-First: Diana Oya
Author-X-Name-Last: Sawyer
Title: Migration bias in indirect estimates of regional childhood mortality levels
Abstract:
Demographers often use Brass-style indirect methods to obtain childhood
mortality estimates for regions within developing countries. Regional
populations are not closed to migration, however, and mortality reports of
women resident in a certain region on the survey date may contain
information on events and exposure that occurred elsewhere as the mother
migrated. Including this “imported”; mortality information
may cause significant bias in regional estimates. In this paper the
authors: (1) investigate the possible magnitude of migration bias using a
multiregional simulation model, (2) propose a modification to standard
methods which should reduce bias in many circumstances, and (3) apply the
modified technique to data from Brazil's 1980 Census. We find that
migration bias can indeed be significant, and that in the specific case of
Sao Paulo state, imported mortality information may result in
overestimates of local mortality levels of 10-15% when using Brass-style
methods.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 69-93
Issue: 2
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Migration, mortality, indirect estimation methods, Brass methods, Brazil,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525424
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:69-93
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: R. H. Norden
Author-X-Name-First: R. H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Norden
Title: On the distribution of completed parities when fertility is heritable
Abstract:
Over the last one hundred years, there has been, in many developed
countries, a demographic convergence towards the two child family. The
possible implications for population growth of such a tendency are
considered in this paper in terms of both family limitation and also the
intergenerational transmission of fertility. These two effects interact so
that as the proportion of two-child families increases, the possible
influence of mother-daughter fertility associations on population growth
decreases, though even now it could override otherwise significant changes
in either or both of the birth and death intensities. In particular, it is
shown that according as to how fertility is transmitted through
generations, it is still possible to have zero growth rates consistently
with a widely dispersed stable distribution of family size as well as a
typical mortality regime.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 95-128
Issue: 2
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Population, family, limitation, intergenerational, fertility, fecundity,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525425
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:95-128
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Adrian Raftery
Author-X-Name-First: Adrian
Author-X-Name-Last: Raftery
Author-Name: Steven Lewis
Author-X-Name-First: Steven
Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis
Author-Name: Akbar Aghajanian
Author-X-Name-First: Akbar
Author-X-Name-Last: Aghajanian
Author-Name: Michael Kahn
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Kahn
Title: Event history modeling of world fertility survey data
Abstract:
Event history analysis seems ideally suited for the analysis of World
Fertility Survey, WFS, data, which consists of full birth histories and
related information, but it has not been much used for this purpose. This
may be because event history analysis has practical drawbacks for WFS
data, namely partial dates, computational burden, the need to take account
of five clocks at once and the difficulty of interpreting coefficients. We
propose a modeling strategy for the event history analysis of WFS data
which overcomes these problems, and we apply it to the previously
unanalyzed WFS data from Iran. This yields estimates of the time of onset
of fertility decline and the extent to which it was due to compositional
changes in the population. It also enables us to determine whether it was
a period effect, a cohort effect, or both. These results would have been
hard to obtain using other approaches. In addition, the usefulness of ACE
as an exploratory tool for determining the best coding of independent
variables is illustrated.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 129-153
Issue: 2
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: ACE, age-period-cohort analysis, BIC, Iran Fertility Survey, Total Fertility Rate, unobserved heterogeneity,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525426
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:129-153
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alexandra Milik
Author-X-Name-First: Alexandra
Author-X-Name-Last: Milik
Author-Name: Alexia Prskawetz
Author-X-Name-First: Alexia
Author-X-Name-Last: Prskawetz
Title: Slow-fast dynamics in a model of population and resource growth
Abstract:
Models of the interaction of population, the economy, and the environment
often contain nonlinear functional relationships and variables that move
at different speeds. These properties foster apparent unpredictabilities
in system behaviour. Using a simple deterministic model of demographic,
economic and environmental interactions we illustrate the usefulness of
geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental population
economics. In contrast to local stability analysis, the theory of
slow-fast dynamics helps to gain new insights into the global behaviour of
the system. In particular, the knowledge of the basins of attraction of
the stationary states enables one to determine the regions of sustainable
future paths of resources and population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 155-169
Issue: 2
Volume: 6
Year: 1996
Keywords: Slow-fast dynamics, sustainability, Malthusian population growth,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489609525427
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1996:i:2:p:155-169
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 3
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525430
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525430
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:1-1
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Minato Nakazawa
Author-X-Name-First: Minato
Author-X-Name-Last: Nakazawa
Author-Name: Ryutaro Ohtsuka
Author-X-Name-First: Ryutaro
Author-X-Name-Last: Ohtsuka
Title: Analysis of completed parity using microsimulation modeling
Abstract:
Inter-individual relationship is essential for population reproduction in
small-scale populations so that the microsimulation model was constructed
using the processes of death, marriage, and birth. For examination of
sensitivity of the model, 6 parameter sets, based on 3 fertility/mortality
levels and 2 marriage systems, were applied to the completed parity data
of the Gidra, one such a population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 173-186
Issue: 3
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Completed parity, Microsimulation analysis, Papua New Guinea,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525431
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:173-186
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zeng Yi
Author-X-Name-First: Zeng
Author-X-Name-Last: Yi
Author-Name: James Vaupel
Author-X-Name-First: James
Author-X-Name-Last: Vaupel
Author-Name: Wang Zhenglian
Author-X-Name-First: Wang
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhenglian
Title: A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application
Abstract:
This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households
and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the
demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents
and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of
households, their members, and population structure, using data that are
usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional
headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households
with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and
three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where
nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and
three-generation households are both important. The illustrative
application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant
information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and
the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the
elderly.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 187-216
Issue: 3
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Household, Projection, Consistency, Scenarios, Policy, Ageing,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525432
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:187-216
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zhongdong Ma
Author-X-Name-First: Zhongdong
Author-X-Name-Last: Ma
Author-Name: Kao-Lee Liaw
Author-X-Name-First: Kao-Lee
Author-X-Name-Last: Liaw
Title: Explaining hierarchical and interprovincial migrations of Chinese young adults by personal factors and place attributes: A nested logit analysis
Abstract:
This paper uses a two-level nested logit model to explain the
inter-stratum (city, town and rural county) and interprovincial migration
behaviors of the young adults (aged 17-29) in China during a three-year
period (1985-87), based on the micro data of the 1987 National Population
Survey. The migration propensity of each person is represented by a
departure probability and a destination choice probability. These
probabilities are then expressed as functions of personal factors and
place attributes. The main findings are that personal factors are of
paramount importance in explaining the departure behaviors, and that both
departure and destination behaviors responded to market forces in a
sensible way, despite government control on territorial movements.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 217-239
Issue: 3
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Nested logit model, Inter-stratum, Interprovincial migrations, China Communicated by Hisashi Inaba,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525433
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:217-239
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jianfa Shen
Author-X-Name-First: Jianfa
Author-X-Name-Last: Shen
Author-Name: Nigel Spence
Author-X-Name-First: Nigel
Author-X-Name-Last: Spence
Title: Modelling regional population growth in China
Abstract:
This paper develops a forward demographic rates-based multiregional
population model on the basis of a set of multiregional population
accounts. Forward emigration rates and immigration flows are adopted to
describe the external migrations. The model is used to make consistent
multiregional population projections of China at a provincial level. The
model is calibrated using the 1982 census data and 1987 one-percent
population survey data. Other data sources have also been used to estimate
and prepare necessary input data for the multiregional population model.
Three sets of multiregional population projections of China at provincial
level are made for the period 1987-2087. It is found that the national
population trend is a combination of various regional population trends.
Some regions, such as Zhejiang, will reach their population peak as early
as the beginning of the next century while other regions, such as
Xinjiang, will face continuous population growth in the first half of the
next century.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 241-274
Issue: 3
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Multiregional modelling, Forward demographic rates, Population accounts, Population projection, Population model, China,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525434
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:3:p:241-274
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Schoen
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen
Author-Name: Young Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Young
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: Exploring cyclic net reproduction
Abstract:
This paper advances a new approach that provides closed form expressions
for the birth trajectory produced by a regime of changing vital rates. An
exponentiated sinusoidal net maternity function is considered in detail,
as populations with cyclically varying net maternity are of particular
interest because of their connection to the Easterlin hypothesis. The
dynamics of the model are largely determined by the ratio of the
population's generation length (A) to the period of cyclicity (T), and
relatively simple expressions are found for the phase difference and
relative amplification of the birth and net reproduction functions. More
generally, an analytical expression for a population's birth trajectory is
derived that applies whenever net reproductivity can be written as an
exponentiated Fourier series. In the cyclic model, Easterlin's inverse
relationship between cohort size and cohort fertility holds whenever the
phase difference is zero. At other phase differences, the
birth-reproduction equations have the form of predator-prey equations. The
present analytical approach may thus be relevant to analyses of
interacting populations.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 277-290
Issue: 4
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Net maternity, Cyclic populations, Fourier series, Easterlin hypothesis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525437
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:277-290
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: J. H. Pollard
Author-X-Name-First: J. H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Pollard
Author-Name: E. J. Valkovics
Author-X-Name-First: E. J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Valkovics
Title: On the use of the truncated Gompertz distribution and other models to represent the parity progression functions of high fertility populations
Abstract:
The Gompertz distribution, developed from the mortality
“law”; long used by actuaries and demographers promises to
be a useful distribution for many other demographic purposes as well. The
continuous distribution can also be adapted to represent discrete data
commonly encountered in demographic work, and maximum likelihood estimates
of the two parameters are easily calculated using formulae developed in
this paper, whether those data be continuous or discrete, truncated below
or provided with observations in a final open-ended interval. The
distribution is unimodel. The use of the truncated form of the
distribution, however, allows the researcher to fit it to a wider range of
observed distributions, including many for which the density function is
monotonic decreasing. Empirical studies using parity progression data of
two high fertility populations indicate that the truncated Gompertz
distribution in its discrete form provides a good overall picture of the
parity distribution. Interestingly, the simple method of partial sums,
commonly employed to fit the Gompertz function, appears to provide
parameter estimates which are close to those estimated by maximum
likelihood.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 291-305
Issue: 4
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Gompertz, Partial sum, Parity progression table, Truncated Gompertz distribution,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525438
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:291-305
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: German Rodriguez
Author-X-Name-First: German
Author-X-Name-Last: Rodriguez
Author-Name: Dimiter Philipov
Author-X-Name-First: Dimiter
Author-X-Name-Last: Philipov
Title: Fitting the Coale-Trussell model by maximum quasi-likelihood
Abstract:
We describe a method for fitting the Coale-Trussell model to fertility
rates or to counts of births and exposure by single years of age. The
procedure maximizes a quasi-likelihood function and can easily be
implemented using standard software. An extension to handle covariates is
discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 307-317
Issue: 4
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Coale-Trussell model, Quasi-likelihood, Fertility,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525439
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:307-317
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juha Alho
Author-X-Name-First: Juha
Author-X-Name-Last: Alho
Author-Name: Jukka Nyblom
Author-X-Name-First: Jukka
Author-X-Name-Last: Nyblom
Title: Mixed estimation of old-age mortality
Abstract:
The estimation of the mortality of the “oldest old”; is
subject to considerable random error, but important prior information
exists that can be used to make the estimates more robust. Mixed
estimation is a method of incorporating auxiliary information into the
statistical estimation of linear models. We extend the method to cover
general maximum likelihood estimation, and show that the mixed estimator
can be represented approximately as a weighted average of the purely data
based estimator and the auxiliary estimator. The methods can be applied to
the analysis of the old-age mortality via logistic and Poisson regression.
A major advantage of the mixed estimator is the simplicity with which it
can incorporate partial prior information. Moreover, no special software
is needed in the fitting. We show how the targeting methods of Coale and
Kisker can be represented as mixed estimation in a natural way that is
more flexible than the original proposal. We also derive empirical
estimates of the target information based on pooled data from several
countries with high quality data. We consider the mortality of Finland at
ages 80 +, study the reliability of the evidence of mortality crossover,
and derive estimates of life expectancy at age 100.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 319-330
Issue: 4
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
Keywords: Bayesian estimation, Expert judgment, Generalized linear models, Life tables, Logistic regression, Mortality crossover, Poisson regression,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525440
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:319-330
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni
Title: Book review
Abstract:
Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions. by Andrei
Rogers. John Wiley & Sons. 1994. 236 pp. Incl. IBM PC Disk with SPACE
Computer Program.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 331-333
Issue: 4
Volume: 6
Year: 1997
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489709525441
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489709525441
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:6:y:1997:i:4:p:331-333
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Arvind Pandey
Author-X-Name-First: Arvind
Author-X-Name-Last: Pandey
Author-Name: S. N. Dwivedi
Author-X-Name-First: S. N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Dwivedi
Author-Name: R. N. Mishra
Author-X-Name-First: R. N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Mishra
Title: A stochastic model for the study of last closed birth interval with some biosocial components
Abstract:
We present a stochastic model to describe variation in last closed birth
interval for women of a given marriage duration by parity as well as
regardless of parity. The model is derived under some simplified
assumptions relating to human reproduction process accounting for the
non-exposure period in the beginning of the reproductive life caused by
such biosocial components as adolescent sterility and temporary separation
between the partners called as an inoperative period. We illustrate the
model regardless of parity on an observed set of data taken from a rural
area of northern India and estimate the risk of conception before and
after the first birth.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-27
Issue: 1
Volume: 7
Year: 1998
Keywords: Parity, Adolescent sterility, Risk of conception, Truncation bias, Marriage duration,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525444
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jan Barendregt
Author-X-Name-First: Jan
Author-X-Name-Last: Barendregt
Author-Name: Gerrit Van Oortmarssen
Author-X-Name-First: Gerrit
Author-X-Name-Last: Van Oortmarssen
Author-Name: Ben Van Hout
Author-X-Name-First: Ben
Author-X-Name-Last: Van Hout
Author-Name: Jacqueline M. Van Den Bosch
Author-X-Name-First: Jacqueline M. Van Den
Author-X-Name-Last: Bosch
Author-Name: Luc Bonneux
Author-X-Name-First: Luc
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneux
Title: Coping with multiple morbidity in a life table
Abstract:
One of the applications of the multi-state life table is in the field of
Public Health, with states defining various levels of health or functional
ability. Another approach is to model Public Health by looking at the
impact of individual diseases, but, unfortunately, then two practical
problems arise: there are many diseases, and due to comorbidity people may
be in several diseases states simultaneously. Both problems tend to make
the number of states in the life table unpractically large. In this paper
we introduce the proportional multi-state life table. It is especially
designed to cope relatively easily with a large number of diseases
simultaneously, while allowing for comorbidity. We provide proof of
validity and an example implementation for cardiovascular disease.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 29-49
Issue: 1
Volume: 7
Year: 1998
Keywords: Multi-state life table, Illness-death processes, Comorbidity Submitted by C. M. Suchindran,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525445
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525445
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anatoli Yashin
Author-X-Name-First: Anatoli
Author-X-Name-Last: Yashin
Author-Name: Ivan Iachine
Author-X-Name-First: Ivan
Author-X-Name-Last: Iachine
Author-Name: Kirill Andreev
Author-X-Name-First: Kirill
Author-X-Name-Last: Andreev
Author-Name: Ulla Larsen
Author-X-Name-First: Ulla
Author-X-Name-Last: Larsen
Title: Multistate models of postpartum infecundity, fecundability and sterility by age and parity: Methodological issues
Abstract:
How do hidden physiological processes influence estimates of
fecundability and sterility? Does unobserved heterogeneity play a role in
these estimates? To address these questions mathematical models of the
reproductive process are needed. It is not well known how to evaluate
characteristics of reproductive models based on observed reproductive
history data, and such models may not be identifiable without ancillary
information. However, little is known about how to introduce ancillary
information into reproductive models. Furthermore, even if such
information was involved, the use of standard software packages for
maximization of the likelihood function is often not feasible, because the
function cannot be represented in an explicit parametric form. In this
paper we propose an approach which represents the likelihood function in a
form useful for further analysis. This approach is based on multistate
models of the basic physiological processes that influence reproductive
outcomes, and it is suitable in applications where ancillary information
is given in the form of hazard rates. As an alternative, a competing risks
model with incomplete information is discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 51-78
Issue: 1
Volume: 7
Year: 1998
Keywords: Reproductive history models, Unobserved heterogeneity, Fertility Submitted by C.M. Suchindran,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525446
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898489809525446
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:51-78
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicholas Barkalov
Author-X-Name-First: Nicholas
Author-X-Name-Last: Barkalov
Title: On solutions of the cohort parity analysis model
Abstract:
The cohort parity analysis (CPA) model of David et al. (1988) is studied
formally as a three-state parity-progression table. The general solution
is found in a form of convex combination of a finite set of solutions
which are described explicitly. A parameterization is suggested for a
broad subset of solutions which includes two extreme solutions studied in
the original publication and maintains the dimension of the entire set.
The CPA solution is also treated as a random variate distributed uniformly
on the set of all possible solutions. An algorithm is given for computing
the marginal distributions without Monte Carlo simulation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 79-107
Issue: 1
Volume: 7
Year: 1998
Keywords: Cohort parity analysis, Parity-progression table, Stochastic inequality, Uniform distribution on a polytope, Uniform order statistics,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489809525447
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1998:i:1:p:79-107
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maia Martcheva
Author-X-Name-First: Maia
Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva
Author-Name: Fabio Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: A two-sex age-structured population model: Well posedness
Abstract:
In this paper we consider a two-sex population model proposed by
Hoppenstead. We do not assume any special form of the mating function. We
address the problem of existence and uniqueness of continuous and
classical solutions. We give sufficient conditions for continuous
solutions to exist globally and we show that they have in fact a
directional derivative in the direction of the characteristic lines and
satisfy the equations of the model with the directional derivative
replacing the partial derivatives. The existence of classical solutions is
established with mild assumptions on the vital rates.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 111-129
Issue: 2
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Two-sex population model, classical solutions, continuous solutions, directional derivative, sexually transmitted diseases,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525450
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:111-129
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ursula Henz
Author-X-Name-First: Ursula
Author-X-Name-Last: Henz
Author-Name: Johannes Huinink
Author-X-Name-First: Johannes
Author-X-Name-Last: Huinink
Title: Problems concerning the parametric analysis of the age at first birth
Abstract:
The application of parametric split models to analyse the birth of the
first child is discussed by applying the model of Coale and McNeil and the
log-logistic model. We show that serious problems of estimating the final
survival probability may occur when the empirical age distribution of the
analysed event is not fully known and the model deviates considerably from
the empirical distribution. We suggest strategies to handle these problems
in a pragmatic way.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 131-145
Issue: 2
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Parametric split models, Coale-McNeil,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525451
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:131-145
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Frank Denton
Author-X-Name-First: Frank
Author-X-Name-Last: Denton
Author-Name: Byron Spencer
Author-X-Name-First: Byron
Author-X-Name-Last: Spencer
Title: How old is old? Revising the definition based on life table criteria
Abstract:
Sixty-five has long been thought of as the point of entry into
“old age.”; We propose a number of life table criteria for
answering the following questions: If 65 was considered appropriate four
decades ago, what is the corresponding age today? If 65 was (implicitly) a
male-oriented definition four decades ago, as we believe it was, what
would have been the appropriate definition for women at that time, and
what is it today? We address these questions by applying our criteria to
Canada, using 1951 and 1991 life tables, but the criteria could be applied
equally well to other countries. For other developed countries we would
expect broadly similar results.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 147-159
Issue: 2
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Definition of old, life table criteria,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525452
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:147-159
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Shavelle
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Shavelle
Author-Name: David Strauss
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Strauss
Title: A long period multistate life table using micro data
Abstract:
The multistate life table (MLT) has been widely used by demographers for
the past twenty years. However, the pivotal Markov condition upon which
the entire methodology rests is rarely satisfied in practice. We lessen
reliance upon the assumption by computing transition probabilities for
longer periods of time than was previously practical. An extended
Kaplan-Meier estimator accomplishes this task, simultaneously addressing
the issue of censoring. This allows for the construction of a long period
MLT. We provide an illustrative example of a 10-year period MLT, with
comparison to a 1-year period MLT.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 161-177
Issue: 2
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Kaplan-Meier estimator, longitudinal data, micro data,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525453
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:2:p:161-177
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrei Rogers
Author-X-Name-First: Andrei
Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers
Title: Preface
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 3
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525456
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrei Rogers
Author-X-Name-First: Andrei
Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers
Author-Name: James Raymer
Author-X-Name-First: James
Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer
Title: Estimating the regional migration patterns of the foreign-born population in the United States: 1950-1990
Abstract:
The regional distribution of the foreign-born population is determined by
two principal migration processes: internal and external migration,
modified, of course, by the impacts of mortality. (Since the fertility of
the U.S. foreign-borns increases only the population of native-borns, it
only needs to be included in studies of the regional distribution of the
U.S. native-born population.) In this paper, we apply model schedules to
graduate data on the internal and external regional migration patterns of
the foreign-born population for the 1950-1990 period. Prior to the
graduation we “cleanse”; the observed foreign-born data of
obvious inconsistencies and errors arising from a small sample size. No
observed data are available for emigration, forcing us to draw on methods
of indirect estimation to obtain it. To find estimates of the unrecorded
migration flows in-between the four census-defined periods in our study
(that is, for 1950-1955, 1960-1965, 1970-1975, and 1980-1985) we
interpolate between the data of adjacent census time periods. Finally, we
combine the estimated migration data with the corresponding mortality data
to calculate and analyze the multiregional life tables and projections
associated with each five-year time interval.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-216
Issue: 3
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525457
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:181-216
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ge Lin
Author-X-Name-First: Ge
Author-X-Name-Last: Lin
Title: Assessing structural change in U.S. migration patterns: A log-rate modeling approach
Abstract:
A set of log-rate models is proposed to transform Rogers and Wilson's
accounting-based migration models into statistics-oriented migration
models. This study demonstrates not only how log-rate models can be used
to replicate results generated from Rogers-Wilson's cohort and
multi-region mobility models, but also how log-rate models can be used to
make statistical inferences and to derive more parsimonious models.
Estimation issues and model fit are discussed, and case studies with U.S.
mobility and interregional migration data are provided. The flexibility of
log-rate models is emphasized, and possible uses for such models, such as
the testing of various hypotheses and migration projection, are explored.
Potential applications and limitations of log-rate models are also
discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 217-237
Issue: 3
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Log-rate model, Mobility, Multi-region migration, Cohort-change,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525458
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:217-237
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Frans Willekens
Author-X-Name-First: Frans
Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens
Title: Modeling approaches to the indirect estimation of migration flows: From entropy to EM
Abstract:
The paper presents probability models to recover information on migration
flows from incomplete data. Models are used to predict migration and to
combine data from different sources. The parameters of the model are
estimated from the data by the maximum likelihood method. If data are
incomplete, an extension of the maximum likelihood method, the EM
algorithm, may be applied. Two models are considered: the binomial
(multinomial) model, which underlies the logit model and the logistic
regression, and the Poisson model, which underlies the loglinear model,
the log-rate model and the Poisson regression. The binomial model is
viewed in relation to the Poisson model. By way of illustration, the
probabilistic approach and the EM algorithm are applied to two different
missing data problems. The first problem is the prediction of migration
flows using spatial interaction models. The probabilistic approach is
compared to conventional methods, such as the gravity model and entropy
maximization. In fact, spatial interaction models are particular variants
of log-linear models. The second problem is one of unobserved
heterogeneity. A mixture model is applied to determine the relative sizes
of different migrant categories.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 239-278
Issue: 3
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Migration, Missing data, Probability models, Entropy, Maximum likelihood, EM,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525459
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stuart Sweeney
Author-X-Name-First: Stuart
Author-X-Name-Last: Sweeney
Title: Model-based incomplete data analysis with an application to occupational mobility and migration accounts
Abstract:
In many planning and policy research settings available secondary data
sources may be incapable of answering pertinent research questions because
certain variable combinations are unavailable. One solution to this
constraint is to try to construct the desired data using information from
multiple data sources and prior information. Current methods for
accomplishing this task tend to focus predominantly on updating
transaction matrices (input-output tables, transportation flows, or
interregional migration accounts) and emphasize an algorithmic approach to
the problem. This paper attempts to broaden the applications and
generalize the solution by extending the model-based approach to
incomplete data analysis advocated by Willekens (1982). The log-linear
model is presented here as a flexible platform for incomplete data
analysis and a path diagram describes several alternative modeling
approaches; different paths are determined by the level of available
information. The paper concludes with an application to incomplete
occupational migration and mobility tables.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 279-305
Issue: 3
Volume: 7
Year: 1999
Keywords: Incomplete Data, Log-linear models, Generalized linear models, Occupational Migration and Mobility,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898489909525460
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:279-305
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marc Artzrouni
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Artzrouni
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 4
Volume: 7
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525463
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525463
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:1-1
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nan Li
Author-X-Name-First: Nan
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar
Author-X-Name-First: Shripad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar
Title: The solution of time-dependent population models
Abstract:
We analyze the dynamics of age-structured population renewal when vital
rates make a transition in a finite time interval from arbitrary initial
values to any specified final values. The general solution to the renewal
equation in such cases is obtained. This solution describes the birth
sequence explicitly, and also leads to a general formula for population
momentum. We show that the duration of the transition determines the
complexity of the solution for the birth sequence. For transitions that
are completed in a time smaller than the maximum age of reproduction, we
show that the classical Lotka solution found in every textbook also
applies, with a small modification, to the time-dependent case. Our
results substantially extend previous work that has often focused on
instantaneous transitions or on slow and infinitely persistent change in
vital rates.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 311-329
Issue: 4
Volume: 7
Year: 2000
Keywords: Population model, Time-dependent, General solution,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525464
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:311-329
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia Kostaki
Author-X-Name-First: Anastasia
Author-X-Name-Last: Kostaki
Author-Name: Jan Lanke
Author-X-Name-First: Jan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lanke
Title: Degrouping mortality data for the elderly
Abstract:
Proposed in this paper is a technique for estimating, from coarsly
grouped empirical death data, the age-specific numbers of deaths for the
elderly population. This question is primarily of interest in countries
where the empirical data are available only in a grouped form, given
usually in quinquennial age groups and in a large open-ended interval for
the ages 85 and over. The main reason that the official data are given in
such a form in some countries of Southern Europe and in the Third World is
the existence of heaping in the empirical data, i.e. misstatements in age
recording, usually rounding to the nearest integer divisible with five.
Our evaluation of the method on Swedish mortality data shows that the
technique proposed can be efficiently applied to period mortality data.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 331-341
Issue: 4
Volume: 7
Year: 2000
Keywords: Heaping, expansion techniques,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525465
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:331-341
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: A. Prskawetz
Author-X-Name-First: A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Prskawetz
Author-Name: G. Steinmann
Author-X-Name-First: G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Steinmann
Author-Name: G. Feichtinger
Author-X-Name-First: G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Feichtinger
Title: Human capital, technological progress and the demographic transition
Abstract:
We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth
— fertility and mortality - separately, when modeling the mutual
interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that
two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards
the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of
birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a
spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model
implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and
Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium
- as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output
respectively - we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian)
equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress
and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to
escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic
growth.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 343-363
Issue: 4
Volume: 7
Year: 2000
Keywords: population growth, economic growth, non-linear model, capital, equilibrium,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525466
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:343-363
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hisashi Inaba
Author-X-Name-First: Hisashi
Author-X-Name-Last: Inaba
Title: Persistent age distributions for an age-structured two-sex population model
Abstract:
In this paper we formulate an age-structured two-sex population model
which takes into account a monogamous marriage rule and the duration of
marriage. We are mainly concerned with the existence of exponential
solutions with a persistent age distribution. First we provide a semigroup
method to deal with the time-evolution problem of our two-sex population
model. Next, by constructing a fixed point mapping, we prove the existence
of exponential solutions under homogeneity conditions.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 365-398
Issue: 4
Volume: 7
Year: 2000
Keywords: Two-Sex Population Dynamics, Marriage Model, Exponential Solutions, Persistent Age Distributions, Fixed Point Theorem, Semigroups,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525467
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:365-398
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar
Author-X-Name-First: Shripad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar
Title: Preface: New directions in demographic theory
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525470
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525470
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:1-2
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Georgiy Bobashev
Author-X-Name-First: Georgiy
Author-X-Name-Last: Bobashev
Author-Name: Stephen Ellner
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen
Author-X-Name-Last: Ellner
Author-Name: Douglas Nychka
Author-X-Name-First: Douglas
Author-X-Name-Last: Nychka
Author-Name: Bryan Grenfell
Author-X-Name-First: Bryan
Author-X-Name-Last: Grenfell
Title: Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data
Abstract:
Dynamical epidemic studies are often based on the reported number of
cases. For various purposes it would be helpful to have information about
the numbers of susceptibles, but these data are rarely available. We show
that under general theoretical assumptions it is possible to reconstruct,
up to linear scaling parameters, the dynamics of the susceptible class, as
well as the rate of recruitment to the susceptible class, based only on
case report data. We demonstrate that susceptible data reconstructed by
our method improve the performance of forecasting models. Our estimate of
susceptible class dynamics also can be used to estimate the age
distribution of recruitment into the susceptible class, if the birth rate
is known from independent data. Simulation experiments show that the
reconstruction is robust to errors in the reporting scheme. This work was
motivated by measles in large developed-world cities prior to immunization
programs; our theoretical assumptions are empirically justified for
measles but should also be applicable to some other diseases with
permanent immunity.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-29
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Mathematical epidemiology, measles, susceptibility, forecasting, modeling,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525471
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lawrence Carter
Author-X-Name-First: Lawrence
Author-X-Name-Last: Carter
Title: Imparting structural instability to mortality forecasts: Testing for sensitive dependence on initial conditions with innovations
Abstract:
This article explores a nontraditional approach to examining the problem
of forecast uncertainty in extrapolative demographic models. It builds on
prior research on stochastic time series forecast models, but diverges to
examine their deterministic counterparts. The focus here is an examination
of the structural integrity of the Lee-Carter (1992) method applied to
mortality forecasts. I investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the
Lee-Carter method, particularly its sensitive dependence of the forecasts
on the initial conditions of the model. I examine the Lee-Carter nonlinear
demographic model, mx,t — exp (ax+ bxkt + ex,t), which is
decomposed using SVD to derive a single time-varying linear index of
mortality, kt. From a 90 year time series of kt, forty nine 40 year
realizations are sampled. These realizations are modeled and estimated
using Box-Jenkins techniques. The estimated parameters of these
realizations and the first case of each of the samples are the initial
conditions for the iterations of nonlinearized transformation of k, to exp
(kt). The terminal year for each of the 49 iterated series is 2065. The
deterministic nonlinear dynamics of this system of 49 iterated series is
investigated by testing its Lyapunov exponents as a nonparametric
diagnostic of a one dimensional dynamical system. The exponents are all
negative, indicating that chaos is not prevalent in this system. The
nonexistence of chaos suggests stability in the model and reaffirms the
predictability of this one dimensional map. Augmenting the iterations of
the initial conditions with additive stochastic innovations, {et, t
≥ 1}, creates a stochastic dynamical system of the form, kt = kt,-1
— c + ϕ flu +et. Here, et is treated as a surrogate for some
unanticipated time series event (e.g. an epidemic) that impacts the
deterministic map. Gaussian white noise innovations do not move the
iterations far from equilibrium and only for short time intervals. So,
stepping the mean of the innovations by .01 produces stable Lyapunov
exponents until the mean equals .35 where some of the exponents are
positive. At this point, deterministic chaos is evident, implying
instability in the forecasts. The substantive implications of this
instability are discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 31-54
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525472
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: C.Y. Cyrus Chu
Author-X-Name-First: C.Y. Cyrus
Author-X-Name-Last: Chu
Author-Name: Huei-Chung Lu
Author-X-Name-First: Huei-Chung
Author-X-Name-Last: Lu
Title: Predator-prey models with endogenous decisions
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 55-71
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525473
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525473
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:55-71
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Juha Alho
Author-X-Name-First: Juha
Author-X-Name-Last: Alho
Author-Name: Matti Saari
Author-X-Name-First: Matti
Author-X-Name-Last: Saari
Author-Name: Anne Juolevi
Author-X-Name-First: Anne
Author-X-Name-Last: Juolevi
Title: A competing risks approach to the two-sex problem
Abstract:
The measurement of nuptiality rates is complicated by the fact that a
marriage can be attributed both to the woman and the man involved. This is
an example of the so called two-sex problem of mathematical demography.
Several theoretical solutions have been proposed, but none has found
universal acceptance. We introduce an individual level stochastic model
based on competing risks ideas. The model shows explicitly how behavioral
factors influence the accuracy of the various models. Although the product
model is shown to be the only one that is invariant with respect to the
units in which time and age are measured, different behavioral
considerations may lead to different definitions of the population at
risk. We show that the marriage models are only expected to differ
empirically, if the numbers of marriageables vary abruptly in close ages.
In an attempt to use data analysis to determine the best fitting risk
population, we apply moving averages, approximately polynomial models, and
subspace fitting models to Finnish age-specific marriage data, mostly from
1989. The results are conflicting. Depending on the criterium used,
different models provide the best fit. We also study the role of the
models in the forecasting of marriages. In some circumstances, an
erroneous choice of the population at risk model can be compensated by a
particular forecasting method.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-90
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525474
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:73-90
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nan Li
Author-X-Name-First: Nan
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Marcus Feldman
Author-X-Name-First: Marcus
Author-X-Name-Last: Feldman
Author-Name: Shripad Tuljapurkar
Author-X-Name-First: Shripad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tuljapurkar
Title: Sex ratio at birth and son preference
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 91-107
Issue: 1
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525475
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525475
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:1:p:91-107
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martina Morris
Author-X-Name-First: Martina
Author-X-Name-Last: Morris
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 2
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525477
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525477
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:1-2
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martina Morris
Author-X-Name-First: Martina
Author-X-Name-Last: Morris
Author-Name: Mirjam Kretzschmar
Author-X-Name-First: Mirjam
Author-X-Name-Last: Kretzschmar
Title: A microsimulation study of the effect of concurrent partnerships on the spread of HIV in Uganda
Abstract:
This paper examines the potential impact of concurrent partnerships on
HIV spread in Uganda using microsimulation. We represent a population of
individuals, the sexual partnerships that they form and dissolve over
time, and the spread of an infectious disease as a stochastic process.
Data from the 1994 Ugandan sexual network survey are used to establish
baseline outcomes, and the baseline is compared to sequential monogamy,
increased concurrency and increased number of partnerships. The observed
level of concurrency raises the number of infected cases by about 26% at
the end of 5 years compared to sequential monogamy. Increasing both the
number of partnerships and the rate of concurrency together has a stronger
impact than increasing either alone. If risk behaviors were slightly
higher at the start of the Ugandan epidemic, concurrency may have
amplified the prevalence of HIV by a factor of 2 or 3. The public health
implications are that data must be collected properly to measure the
levels of concurrency in a population, and that messages promoting
“one partner at a time”; are as important as messages
promoting fewer partners.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 109-133
Issue: 2
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: HIV, transmission, behavior, microsimulation, Africa, networks,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525478
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525478
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:109-133
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eline Korenromp
Author-X-Name-First: Eline
Author-X-Name-Last: Korenromp
Author-Name: Carina van Vliet
Author-X-Name-First: Carina
Author-X-Name-Last: van Vliet
Author-Name: Roel Bakker
Author-X-Name-First: Roel
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakker
Author-Name: Sake de Vlas
Author-X-Name-First: Sake
Author-X-Name-Last: de Vlas
Author-Name: J. Dik
Author-X-Name-First: J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Dik
Author-Name: F. Habbema
Author-X-Name-First: F.
Author-X-Name-Last: Habbema
Title: HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM
Abstract:
We studied how sexual behaviour affects population HIV spread simulating
stylized risk profiles: (1) prostitution, no short relationships
(resembling settings in South-East Asia); (2) prostitution, concurrent
short relationships (resembling South-America and urban sub-Saharan
Africa); (3) no prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling
rural sub-Saharan Africa); (4) prostitution, serial short relationships (a
generic low-risk setting). We explored the impact on HIV prevalence of
prevention programs accomplishing postponement of sexual debut, reduction
in partner change rate and in prostitution. We described the
representation of sexual behaviour in the microsimulation model STDSIM,
comparing it to non-individual-based models. The profiles generate
markedly different time courses of HIV spread. Concentration of risk
causes a rapid initial spread (Profiles 1 and 2), whereas the final
prevalence depends more on the overall extent of risk behaviour in the
general population (highest for Profiles 2 and 3). Effects of partnership
reduction are strongly context dependent. Small decreases in numbers of
partners reduce HIV spread considerably if they reflect decreases in the
contacts of highest risk in that setting. In settings with risk behaviour
dispersed over a large part of the population (Profiles 2 and 3), indirect
effects can cause the impact on HIV to be disproportionately large
compared to the magnitude of behaviour change.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 135-173
Issue: 2
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Models, HIV/AIDS, prevention, sex partners, behaviour change, developing countries,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525479
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hans Hansen
Author-X-Name-First: Hans
Author-X-Name-Last: Hansen
Title: An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda
Abstract:
Many AIDS related population processes are unobservable or very difficult
to record, not least in developing countries. Population processes with
AIDS tend to be highly complex, moreover. In this paper we present a
stochastic one-parent model in continuous time that incorporates
heterogeneity and duration dependence in the hazards, the probabilities of
transition being established by stochastic microsimulation with time and
subsequent life state as the random elements. The model allows for
transition between three stages of infection and disease development (HIV
negative, HIV positive, and full-blown AIDS). The presentation includes
the renewal theory required for obtaining coherent estimates of the stable
growth rate and the age structure of multistate populations with AIDS. The
basic simulation results in terms of a relational database (two tables)
allows of consistent prediction by a wide range of complex demographic
processes at the level of individuals and one-parent families. In an
example based on recent population data from Uganda HIV positive women are
assumed to have fertility rates 20% lower than HIV negative women, while
HIV positive women with AIDS in the terminal state have 60% lower
fertility. Age-specific mortality rates are assumed to be the same for HIV
negative and HIV positive persons until they develop AIDS. The model is
then used to study the demographic changes induced by the epidemic, in
three scenarios differentiated solely by the level of age-specific risk of
infection. Interestingly, the gloomy model-based predictions are not
contradicted by the currently available data fragments on population
development and AIDS in Uganda.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 175-203
Issue: 2
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525480
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525480
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Travis Porco
Author-X-Name-First: Travis
Author-X-Name-Last: Porco
Author-Name: Sally Blower
Author-X-Name-First: Sally
Author-X-Name-Last: Blower
Title: HIV vaccines: The effect of the mode of action on the coexistence of HIV subtypes
Abstract:
We analyze a mathematical model of the simultaneous transmission of two
HIV subtypes and their control by vaccines. Two vaccines are analyzed
which utilize different mechanisms, one in which the vaccine take differs
for each subtype, and the other in which a different level of reduced
infectivity results after infection by each subtype. The equilibrium
outcome is different for each case; equilibrium coexistence of the two
subtypes is possible in the differential take model, but not in the
differential reduced infectivity model. This is a first step in
understanding the interaction of HIV subtypes and differentially effective
vaccines with different modes of action.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 205-229
Issue: 2
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: HIV vaccine, mathematical model, HIV-1 subtype, HIV-1 clade, competitive exclusion,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525481
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:205-229
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martina Morris
Author-X-Name-First: Martina
Author-X-Name-Last: Morris
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 3
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525483
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525483
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:1-2
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martina Morris
Author-X-Name-First: Martina
Author-X-Name-Last: Morris
Author-Name: John O'Gorman
Author-X-Name-First: John
Author-X-Name-Last: O'Gorman
Title: The impact of measurement error on survey estimates of concurrent partnerships
Abstract:
This paper uses simulation to examine the role that measurement error may
play in survey estimates of concurrent partnerships. Concurrent
partnerships accelerate the spread of a sexually transmitted infection,
making data on concurrency important for modeling and public health
purposes. Methods for collecting data on concurrency typically rely on the
reporting of dates. Little is known about the accuracy or reliability of
estimates from such data. We examine the possible impact of two types of
date reporting error here: unit heaping, which is often imposed by the
survey instrument, and recall error. The impact of these errors depends on
the underlying behavior pattern. When the interval that persons spend
single between partners is small compared to the interval when
partnerships overlap, it is easier for errors to create a concurrent
partnership where none exists than to eliminate one that does. Under these
conditions, measurement errors introduce a slight positive bias in
estimates of the prevalence of concurrent partnerships, and a slight
negative bias in the length of the overlap.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 231-249
Issue: 3
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: HIV, transmission, behavior, microsimulation, Africa, networks,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525484
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Geoff Garnett
Author-X-Name-First: Geoff
Author-X-Name-Last: Garnett
Author-Name: Simon Gregson
Author-X-Name-First: Simon
Author-X-Name-Last: Gregson
Title: Monitoring the course of the HIV-1 epidemic: The influence of patterns of fertility on HIV-1 prevalence estimates
Abstract:
An age structured model of heterosexual HIV-1 transmission is used to
explore the impact of observed patterns of fertility on measures of HIV
prevalence derived from child bearing women. Observed reductions in
fertility caused by women being outside sexual unions before the age of 20
years, the influence of bacterial sexually transmitted infections and the
influence of HIV associated morbidity are all included in the model. We
illustrate how the biases in prevalence estimates for a localised epidemic
can change with time since the start of the epidemic. As the average age
of HIV infected women increases, the over-estimate of prevalence from
antenatal clinic samples first increases and then declines. This works in
opposition to the influence of HIV-1 on fertility, which causes HIV-1
prevalence to be under-estimated initially. Additionally a reduction in
fertility associated with bacterial infection in the highest sexual
activity classes causes a substantial under-estimate of HIV prevalence
initially, but with the greater HIV associated mortality in this
population the bias reduces rapidly.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 251-277
Issue: 3
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Human immunodeficiency virus, HIV-1 surveillance, fertility, transmission dynamics, antenatal clinic, sentinel sites,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525485
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:251-277
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Masayuki Kakehashi
Author-X-Name-First: Masayuki
Author-X-Name-Last: Kakehashi
Title: Validity of simple pair formation model for HIV spread with realistic parameter setting
Abstract:
Realistic models have a larger number of parameters than simple models
do. In such realistic models some of the parameter values will be less
realistic because of the availability and the difficulty in estimation. On
the contrary, a simple model with a smaller number of parameters of which
reliable values are available can make reliable prediction if the simple
model has involved the essential structure of phenomena. In this paper we
propose a simple pair formation model for HIV spread by heterosexual
transmission. By setting the parameters involved in the model as close as
the actual situation in Japan, we examined whether the outcome is
consistent with the observation. The outcome suggested plausible range for
some unknown parameters. How to deal with inevitably ambiguous parameters
is discussed. The model is ready to be used for other countries than Japan
and the validity of such an analysis is also discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 279-292
Issue: 3
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: HIV, mathematical model, pair formation, prediction, Japan,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525486
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525486
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:279-292
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Schoen
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen
Author-Name: Young Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Young
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: A dynamic multistate model of robustness and frailty
Abstract:
Dynamic multistate models can show realistic population dynamics over
time, model complex cycles, and encompass the life history of a cohort.
This paper uses a recently developed approach to obtain the analytic
solution of a time-dependent multidimensional differential equation. The
illustrative robust/frail model presented shows that the assumption of
fixed individual frailty can be abandoned in a two living state model that
allows transitions between health statuses and nonproportional hazards of
death.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 293-304
Issue: 4
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Dynamic, multistate, frailty, Markov, heterogeneity, closed form,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525488
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:293-304
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anatoli Yashin
Author-X-Name-First: Anatoli
Author-X-Name-Last: Yashin
Author-Name: Ivan Iachine
Author-X-Name-First: Ivan
Author-X-Name-Last: Iachine
Author-Name: Alexander Begun
Author-X-Name-First: Alexander
Author-X-Name-Last: Begun
Title: Mortality modeling: A review
Abstract:
Looking at survival in terms of biological indicators of aging has given
rise to various models of mortality, some of which we review here. The
most notable models are that of Strehler and Mildvan, which relates the
force of mortality to the ability of organisms to compensate for stress,
and that of Sacher and Trucco, which describes the role played by
homeostatic forces in shaping the age-specific pattern of mortality. The
analysis of longitudinal data in aging studies now incorporates the
notions of heterogeneity and frailty, as well as that of changes in the
“repair capacity”; of organisms. Furthermore, attention is
now being paid to evolutionary theory and to models of senescence. These
models and directions for further research are discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 305-332
Issue: 4
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Heterogeneity, Frailty, Homeostasis, Repair capacity, Antagonistic pleiotropy, Evolution,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525489
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:305-332
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Holger Strulik
Author-X-Name-First: Holger
Author-X-Name-Last: Strulik
Title: On demographic transition, structural change, and economic growth and stagnation
Abstract:
The paper analyzes an economy with an agrarian and an industrial sector.
Demand is determined by Engel's Law. Population growth follows a
non-linear income dependent path according to the theory of demographic
transition. In case of decreasing returns to scale in the agrarian sector
the existence of a stable low-income equilibrium with high population
growth can be shown. If this equilibrium is globally unstable, the system
evolves towards a steady-state of perpetual economic growth and low
population growth. The path of demographic transition coincides with a
path of structural change from an economy specialized in agriculture to a
fully industrialized economy. The introduction of an income dependent
savings rate allows the interpretation of the low-income equilibrium as a
limit cycle and, therefore, the explanation of high fluctuations in
population growth and per capita income in least developed economies.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 333-356
Issue: 4
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Demographic transition, Economic growth, Structural change, Limit cycles,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525490
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525490
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:333-356
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shang-Gong Sun
Author-X-Name-First: Shang-Gong
Author-X-Name-Last: Sun
Title: Estimation of life expectancy — cohort life table
Abstract:
Life tables are traditionally built with linear assumptions for the
survival curve. Here, considering that survivors can remain at the end of
the observation period, the author shows that non linear modeling is more
appropriate. With data on cervix uteri cancer, e0 ≈ 12.5 years with
standard error ≈ 2.8 years with infinite time horizon, but e0
≈ 6.0 years with standard error ≈ 0.1 year in interval with
finite time horizon [0, 12 years]. The average hazard function is
introduced to estimate the life expectancy, and the actuarial estimate of
the hazard function is showed to under-estimate the true hazard values
under the exponential distribution. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the
probabilities of death on the estimation of life expectancy completes the
study.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 357-376
Issue: 4
Volume: 8
Year: 2000
Keywords: Life expectancy, Taylor expansion, Hazard function, Actuarial estimate,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525491
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:4:p:357-376
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jean-Pierre Aubin
Author-X-Name-First: Jean-Pierre
Author-X-Name-Last: Aubin
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Author-Name: Franck Maurin
Author-X-Name-First: Franck
Author-X-Name-Last: Maurin
Title: Non-linear structured population dynamics with co-variates
Abstract:
Co-variates are incorporated into a general model of non-linear
structured population dynamics. The proof of the existence and uniqueness
of the solutions results from those of a special set, the invariance
envelope. It is also valid in presence of state constraints, and solutions
need only to have a closed graph (instead of being weakly differentiable
as requested in semi-group theory). Moreover, this invariance envelope
provides a simple way to build the solutions, either explicitly in the
linear exogenous case, or algo-rithmically in the non-linear case, both
with co-variates. The case of age-structured systems and a model of
demographic transition are discussed for illustration.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-31
Issue: 1
Volume: 9
Year: 2000
Keywords: Lotka-McKendrick, Viability theory Communicated by S. Tuljapurkar,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525493
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:1-31
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco Billari
Author-X-Name-First: Francesco
Author-X-Name-Last: Billari
Author-Name: Piero Manfredi
Author-X-Name-First: Piero
Author-X-Name-Last: Manfredi
Author-Name: Alessandro Valentini
Author-X-Name-First: Alessandro
Author-X-Name-Last: Valentini
Title: Macro-demographic effects of the transition to adulthood: Multistate stable population theory and an application to Italy
Abstract:
We exploit a multistate generalisation of a classical, one-sex, stable
population model to evaluate structural and long-term effects of changes
in the attainment of adulthood. The demographic framework that inspired
this paper is provided by Italy, where a strong delay in the transition to
adulthood and union formation has been observed over the last several
decades. Italy has also experienced very low fertility levels, and the
subsequent ageing problems have become of primary concern. We first
discuss a theoretical framework based on the model developed by Inaba
(1995) and then include the process of transition to adulthood. We
consider explicitly some specifications of the general model, and we
present two distinct empirical applications, one using macrosimulation and
the other one using a linear approximation. Our principal aim is to
evaluate the impact of the delay in the attainment of adulthood on
reproduction and on the age structure of the population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 33-63
Issue: 1
Volume: 9
Year: 2000
Keywords: Stable population theory, multistate demography, transition to adulthood, population ageing, macrosimulation, Italy,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525494
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gunter Steinmann
Author-X-Name-First: Gunter
Author-X-Name-Last: Steinmann
Author-Name: Manfred Jager
Author-X-Name-First: Manfred
Author-X-Name-Last: Jager
Title: Immigration and integration nonlinear dynamics of minorities
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 65-82
Issue: 1
Volume: 9
Year: 2000
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525495
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525495
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:65-82
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anastasia Kostaki
Author-X-Name-First: Anastasia
Author-X-Name-Last: Kostaki
Title: A relational technique for estimating the age-specific mortality pattern from grouped data
Abstract:
This paper presents a new technique of expanding an abridged life table.
This technique is a non-parametric one, which relates the probabilities of
dying of the abridged table to those of a standard complete table. In
order to evaluate the accuracy of the new technique we use it, as well as
two other techniques, for expanding empirical abridged data sets.
According to the results of our calculations the new method proves very
efficient in producing complete life tables from grouped data, in many
cases producing more accurate results than the other two methods in spite
of its simplicity.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 83-95
Issue: 1
Volume: 9
Year: 2000
Keywords: Expansion techniques, probabilities of dying, age pattern of mortality,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525496
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480009525496
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2000:i:1:p:83-95
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Dagsvik
Author-X-Name-First: John
Author-X-Name-Last: Dagsvik
Author-Name: Helge Brunborg
Author-X-Name-First: Helge
Author-X-Name-Last: Brunborg
Author-Name: Ane Flaatten
Author-X-Name-First: Ane
Author-X-Name-Last: Flaatten
Title: A behavioral two-sex marriage model
Abstract:
In this paper we propose a particular marriage model, i.e., a model for
the number of marriages for each age combination as a function of the
vectors of the number of single men and women in each age group. The model
is based on Dagsvik (2000) where it is demonstrated that a general type of
matching behavior imply, under specific assumptions about the distribution
of the preferences of the women and men, a convenient expression for the
corresponding marriage model. Data from the Norwegian Population Register
for nine years are applied to estimate the model. We subsequently test the
hypothesis that, apart from a random “noise”; component, the
age-specific parameters of the model change over time according to a
common trend. We find that the hypothesis is not rejected by our data.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 97-121
Issue: 2
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
Keywords: Two-sex demographic models, Marriage models, Two-sided matching,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525498
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525498
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:97-121
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maia Martcheva
Author-X-Name-First: Maia
Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva
Author-Name: Fabio Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: The mathematics of sex and marriage, revisited
Abstract:
We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two-sex model of
population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and
inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the
performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and
couples during the ten-year period between consecutive U.S. censuses.
Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on
goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various
functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than
the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the
population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently
found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared
with many other functions in the family we use.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-141
Issue: 2
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
Keywords: Two-sex population, Marriage, Modeling, Simulation,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525499
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525499
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:123-141
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sharon Yan
Author-X-Name-First: Sharon
Author-X-Name-Last: Yan
Author-Name: Ulla Larsen
Author-X-Name-First: Ulla
Author-X-Name-Last: Larsen
Title: A non-linear model of fecundability, postpartum amenorrhea, and sterility
Abstract:
This paper proposes a convolution model of fecundability, controling for
the effects of postpartum amenorrhea and unobserved heterogeneity in
fecundability. Simulation analysis was used to assess the validity and
reliability of estimates derived from the model. Analysis showed that the
model captured the mean and standard deviation of age at the onset of
sterility in simulated populations where sterility followed either a
Gompertz, a gamma, or a lognormal distribution. The model performed well
when sterility was specified by either a lognormal or a gamma
distribution. The model also accurately estimated fecundability and
postpartum amenorrhea. Next, the model was found to fit data from 17th and
18th century French Canadian birth histories. In this French Canadian
sample the mean age at sterility was found to be 46.3 years using a gamma
model. The decline in fecundability was almost linear after age 30. Thus,
fecundability at age 40 had declined to about one-third of that observed
at age 30. Variability in individual fecundability was quite high. For
example, women with fecundability one standard deviation above the mean
had about 2.3 times as high fecundability as women one standard deviation
below the mean.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 143-164
Issue: 2
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
Keywords: Convolution model, Gompertz, gamma, and lognormal distributions, Unobserved heterogeneity, Microsimulation, French Canadian birth histories, Reproductive process,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525500
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525500
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:143-164
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: D. A. Freedman
Author-X-Name-First: D. A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Freedman
Author-Name: P. B. Stark
Author-X-Name-First: P. B.
Author-X-Name-Last: Stark
Author-Name: K. W. Wachter
Author-X-Name-First: K. W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Wachter
Title: A probability model for census adjustment
Abstract:
The census can be adjusted using capture-recapture techniques: capture in
the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done
after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System
Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups
called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these
demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability
model for this process, in which several sources of error can be
distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral
differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by
the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to
the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an
example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from
heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in
some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and
variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic
foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used
in discussing that estimator.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 165-180
Issue: 2
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525501
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525501
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:2:p:165-180
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tim Futing Liao
Author-X-Name-First: Tim Futing
Author-X-Name-Last: Liao
Title: How responsive is U.S. population growth to immigration? A situational sensitivity analysis
Abstract:
There has been public concern about the effect of immigration on
population growth in the U.S. But how responsive is population growth to
immigration? This paper examines the sensitivity of intrinsic population
growth to immigration and situates such sensitivity in fertility and
survival changes. The application of second derivatives on a modified
Leslie matrix facilitates the analysis of situational sensitivity of U.S.
population growth to immigration. The results show that the sensitivity to
immigration is not as influential as the sensitivity to fertility, and
that the sensitivity to immigration further depends on changes in
fertility and survival.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 217-229
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
Keywords: Leslie matrix, Sensitivity analysis, Population growth, Immigration, U.S,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525505
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480109525505
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:217-229
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicolas Bacaër
Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas
Author-X-Name-Last: Bacaër
Title: The asymptotic behavior of the McKendrick equation with immigration
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the influence of immigration in a
mathematical model for the evolution of the age structure of a population.
Under a subcritical hypothesis, the age structure converges to a steady
state. A small program simulating the model is presented and used for some
projections concerning the population of France. The link with a more
complex model is also emphasized.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-20
Issue: 1
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306716
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306716
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:1-20
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zheng Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Zheng
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Nan Li
Author-X-Name-First: Nan
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Title: Immigration and the dependency ratio of a host population
Abstract:
This paper examines the long-term impact of constant immigration on the
dependency ratio in an SI population (a stationary population through
constant immigration) in the context of the stable population model. Our
analysis has three main findings. First, in SI populations, a younger
population (a lower aging ratio) does not necessarily have a lower
dependency ratio. An SI population has a lower dependency ratio than a
closed stationary population, provided immigration is concentrated around
the youngest working age in the host population. Second, under the same
condition, selecting high-fertility immigrants increases the dependency
ratio. Third, also under the same condition, substituting working-age
immigrants with young (dependent) immigrants increases the dependency
ratio. Using the United Nations model age structures of immigrants, our
empirical illustration confirms these analytical results.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 21-39
Issue: 1
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306715
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306715
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:21-39
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Salvatore Bertino
Author-X-Name-First: Salvatore
Author-X-Name-Last: Bertino
Author-Name: Eugenio Sonnino
Author-X-Name-First: Eugenio
Author-X-Name-Last: Sonnino
Title: The stochastic inverse projection and the population of Velletri (1590-1870)
Abstract:
A new stochastic method of inverse projection based on the simulation of
age and sex of deaths is proposed. The method is implemented in two
procedures, i.e., SIPAV (forward inverse projection) and SIPIN (backward
inverse projection). The two procedures are used to study the history of
the population of Velletri from 1590 to 1870.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 41-73
Issue: 1
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306717
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306717
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:1:p:41-73
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kao-Lee Liaw
Author-X-Name-First: Kao-Lee
Author-X-Name-Last: Liaw
Author-Name: William Frey
Author-X-Name-First: William
Author-X-Name-Last: Frey
Title: Location of adult children as an attraction for black and white elderly return and onward migrants in the United States: Application of a three-level nested logit model with census data
Abstract:
This article assesses the influence of the location of adult children on
the 1985-90 interstate migration of black and white elderly "nonnatives"
(i.e., those whose state of residence in 1985 was different from their
state of birth) in the United States, based on the application of a
three-level nested logit model with 1990 census data. The model accounts
for (1) the choice between departing and staying put, (2) the choice
between return and onward migration, and (3) the choice of a specific
destination. The main findings are as follows. First, elderly nonnatives
were strongly attracted by the location of their adult children when they
made their migration decisions at all levels of the choice framework, and
this attraction was stronger for the widowed than for those of other
marital statuses. This finding can be taken as empirical support for
Eugene Litwak's theory of the modified extended family. Second, in the
return/onward and destination choice processes, the attraction of the
location of adult children was found to be stronger for whites than for
blacks. This finding is consistent with the finding of Hogan et al. (1993)
that whites had stronger inter-generational connections than did blacks.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 75-98
Issue: 2
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306713
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306713
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:75-98
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert McNown
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: McNown
Title: Cointegration modeling of fertility in the United States
Abstract:
This paper presents estimates of a multiple time series model of
fertility, female labor force participation, women's wages, and the
relative cohort size of younger to older adult males. Cointegration
methods permit modeling of these nonstationary variables, yielding
estimates of the long-run relation among the variables, and the dynamic
response of each variable to displacements from the steady state. The
estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other variables
is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility negatively
related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility responds
to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's relative
income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor market
variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state
relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series
models of fertility.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 99-126
Issue: 2
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306712
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306712
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:99-126
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Dunson
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunson
Title: Incorporating heterogeneous intercourse records into time to pregnancy models
Abstract:
Information on the timing of intercourse relative to ovulation can be
incorporated into time to pregnancy models to improve the power to detect
covariate effects, to estimate the day-specific conception probabilities,
and to distinguish between biological and behavioral effects on
fecundability, and therefore the probability of conception in a menstrual
cycle. In this paper, Bayesian methods are proposed for joint modeling of
intercourse behavior and biologic fecundability. The model accommodates a
sterile subpopulation of couples, general covariate effects, and
heterogeneity among fecund couples in menstrual cycle viability and in
frequency of unprotected intercourse. Methods are described for
incorporating cycles with varying amounts of intercourse information into
a single analysis. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is outlined for
estimation of the posterior distributions of the unknowns. Themethods are
applied to data from a North Carolina study of couples attempting
pregnancy.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 127-143
Issue: 2
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306714
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306714
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:2:p:127-143
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Grimm
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Grimm
Title: Family and economic growth: A review
Abstract:
The interplay between fertility decisions and per capita growth of income
by investment decisions in human capital constitutes the key element of
growth models based on the microeconomic theory of family behavior. A
strategy that raises the fixed cost per child, reduces the cost of
education, stimulates the accumulation of human capital, diminishes the
opportunity cost of parents to send their children to school, encourages
female activity, accelerates economic development and contributes to a
reduction of inequality.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 145-173
Issue: 3
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306719
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306719
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:145-173
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Julien Arino
Author-X-Name-First: Julien
Author-X-Name-Last: Arino
Author-Name: P. van den Driessche
Author-X-Name-First: P. van den
Author-X-Name-Last: Driessche
Title: A multi-city epidemic model
Abstract:
Some analytical results are given for a model that describes the
propagation of a disease in a population of individuals who travel between
n cities. The model is formulated as a system of 2n 2 ordinary
differential equations, with terms accounting for disease transmission,
recovery, birth, death, and travel between cities. The mobility component
is represented as a directed graph with cities as vertices and arcs
determined by outgoing (or return) travel. An explicit formula that can be
used to compute the basic reproduction number, {\cal R}_0 , is obtained,
and explicit bounds on {\cal R}_0 are determined in the case of
homogeneous contacts between individuals within each city. Numerical
simulations indicate that {\cal R}_0 is a sharp threshold, with the
disease dying out if {\cal R}_0 1 .
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 175-193
Issue: 3
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306720
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306720
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:175-193
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Schoen
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Schoen
Title: Dynamic populations with uniform natural increase across states
Abstract:
Multistate populations with changing rates of interstate transfer are an
example of compartment models and depict the experience of persons in
distinct but intercommunicating states. Such models can be used in
analyses of many demographic phenomena, including migration, labor force
participation, and health status. This paper extends present knowledge of
the relationships prevailing in such dynamic models by developing
procedures that yield closed form expressions relating transfer rates to
the state-specific population trajectories that they generate. The focus
is on a subset of multistate models that do not recognize age and that
have restricted variability in rates of transfer and natural increase.
Dynamics in the two state, no-growth case, where the two time-varying
transfer rates always sum to a constant value, are analyzed in depth. In
specified models with any number of intercommunicating states, sine and
cosine fluctuations in the transfer rates are shown to yield sine and
cosine fluctuations in the numbers of persons in each state.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 195-210
Issue: 3
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480306718
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480306718
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:3:p:195-210
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Agnes Lievre
Author-X-Name-First: Agnes
Author-X-Name-Last: Lievre
Author-Name: Nicolas Brouard
Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas
Author-X-Name-Last: Brouard
Author-Name: Christopher Heathcote
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher
Author-X-Name-Last: Heathcote
Title: THE ESTIMATION OF HEALTH EXPECTANCIES FROM CROSS-LONGITUDINAL SURVEYS
Abstract:
The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate parameterized
transition probabilities of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model of
movements between the health states disability-free, disabled, and death.
A complication is that individuals are observed at irregular intervals,
implying that particular attention must be paid to computational issues.
Numerical results including estimated health expectancies and their
standard errors are given for data from the Longitudinal Study on Aging
(LSOA) of 1984-86-88-90 (Kovar et al. 1992). The weak ergodicity of
prevalence on the non-absorbing states is established and supports the
hypothesis of the compression of morbidity.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 211-248
Issue: 4
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
X-DOI: 10.1080/713644739
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713644739
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:211-248
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Harry Haupt
Author-X-Name-First: Harry
Author-X-Name-Last: Haupt
Author-Name: Walter Oberhofer
Author-X-Name-First: Walter
Author-X-Name-Last: Oberhofer
Author-Name: Thomas Reichsthaler
Author-X-Name-First: Thomas
Author-X-Name-Last: Reichsthaler
Title: A VARYING-COEFFICIENT APPROACH TO ESTIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE
Abstract:
Household formation analysis is both a multidimensional economical and
statistical problem of great complexity. Since most of the literature
tries to incorporate multiple economic aspects, there is, considering the
extraordinary practical relevance of the problem, a remarkable gap between
theory and application in this field. This paper tries to diminish this
gap by a comprehensive treatise on the statistical site of the problem.
Thus, we develop a model of household composition, where the evolution of
the household membership rates is captured by a logit link-function and a
multinomial distribution, which automatically fulfills the non-negativity
and adding-up restrictions of the underlying probabilities. We use a
varying-coefficients procedure by polynomially smoothing the household
membership rates over age for every household size class and assuming a
linear predictor in other variables. As an application we estimated and
extrapolated the distribution of household sizes of an autonomous region
using population register data. Our sample consisted of approximately
450,000 people living in about 170,000 households, grouped into nine
different household size classes and classified into age classes from 0 to
90. The data covers a time span of 12 years, from 1986 to 1997. Empirical
results show the robustness of the procedure even in case of low cell
frequencies. Thus, there is no need for regional or age-group
aggregations.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 249-273
Issue: 4
Volume: 10
Year: 2003
Keywords: Generalised linear model, multinomial logit model, nonparametric estimation, varying-coefficient model, local likelihood, household membership rate,
X-DOI: 10.1080/713644740
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713644740
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:10:y:2003:i:4:p:249-273
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gustav Feichtinger
Author-X-Name-First: Gustav
Author-X-Name-Last: Feichtinger
Author-Name: Vladimir Veliov
Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir
Author-X-Name-Last: Veliov
Author-Name: Tsvetomir Tsachev
Author-X-Name-First: Tsvetomir
Author-X-Name-Last: Tsachev
Title: MAXIMUM PRINCIPLE FOR AGE AND DURATION STRUCTURED SYSTEMS: A TOOL FOR OPTIMAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF HIV
Abstract:
Age and duration since infection are considered in a model of optimal
control of the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in countries
with high prevalence. Prevention and medical treatment are selected so as
to maximize an economic objective function.The model extends the classical
McKendrick equation. Necessary optimality conditions in the form of
Pontryagin's global maximum principle and numerical solution based on them
are presented. “Critical” initial prevalence is established
numerically for which there are two optimal medical treatments: one
intense and another less demanding. It is shown that treatment alone can
be counterproductive: increase in treatment must be accompanied by
increase in prevention.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 3-28
Issue: 1
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
Keywords: age-structured systems, population dynamics, McKendrick equation, Pontryagin's maximum principle, infectious diseases, HIV,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422301
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Robert Koyak
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Koyak
Title: AN INVESTIGATION OF GENERALIZED RAKINGIN THE SYNTHETIC ESTIMATION OFPOPULATION SIZE
Abstract:
The problem of counting a population that is cross-classified with
respect to demographic and geographic attributes is considered. A census
is conducted in which individuals are “captured” with
probabilities that are believed to be relatively constant within
demographic categories. The census is followed by a random sample in which
individuals are “recaptured” independently of the census.
Using the two counts, capture-recapture estimates of the demographic
category populations are obtained. A synthetic estimate of population size
for a geographic entity is obtained by summing the corresponding
adjustment factors (capture-recapture estimates divided by census counts)
across all individuals captured by the census in the entity. The use of
generalized raking is considered as a method for smoothing adjustment
factors. It is found that generalized raking differs little from a class
of weighted least squares regression models. This suggests that
generalized raking does not offer an improvement over regression for
smoothing adjustment factors. The efficiency loss of generalized raking
relative to the best regression-based procedures can be substantial.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 29-49
Issue: 1
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
Keywords: raking, smoothing, regression, census adjustment, synthetic estimation, post-stratification,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422310
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Quincy Thomas Stewart
Author-X-Name-First: Quincy Thomas
Author-X-Name-Last: Stewart
Title: BRASS' RELATIONAL MODEL: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Abstract:
Brass' relational model is based on a linear relationship between the
logits of the cumulative probability of dying before age x in a standard
mortality distribution and those observed in any population. In this study
the appropriate way to estimate the linear parameters associated with
Brass' model is clarified. Five methods are presented to estimate the
coefficients associated with Brass' relational model. Each method is
applied to simulated data to examine the efficiencies of each model in
mortality estimation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 51-72
Issue: 1
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490422329
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490422329
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:1:p:51-72
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher Heathcote
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher
Author-X-Name-Last: Heathcote
Author-Name: Tim Higgins
Author-X-Name-First: Tim
Author-X-Name-Last: Higgins
Title: REGRESSION MODELLING OF MORTALITY SURFACES AND THE DECELERATION OF MORTALITY
Abstract:
A mortality surface is a measure of mortality indexed by year and age. A
central limit theorem for aggregate data is established for the mortality
surface defined by the logistic transform of the year and age-specific
probability of death and this is used to postulate and estimate a
regression model. Extra variance may be the result of heterogeneity within
cohorts, and it is shown how the model based on aggregate data could be
decomposed to accommodate sub-cohorts by using proportional odds. In the
absence of disaggregated data, excess variance is modelled as a function
of age and year and estimation is done by maximum likelihood. The
parametric surface so estimated is used to examine deceleration of
mortality at old ages and trends in deceleration are discussed with
reference to selection and heterogeneity. The results are applied to
mortality data from the Netherlands for 1890-1991, ages 50-90.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-91
Issue: 2
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
Keywords: aging, deceleration, heterogeneity, mortality, mortality surface, regression,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490478229
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490478229
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Paola Profeta
Author-X-Name-First: Paola
Author-X-Name-Last: Profeta
Title: AGING, RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY IN A MODEL OF INTEREST GROUPS
Abstract:
What is the influence of aging on the duration of retirement and on
social security transfers? A model of political economy permits to
investigate the duration of retirement and the social security transfer at
equilibrium with the total number of elderly. In an overlapping generation
model with interest groups, an increase in the proportion of elderly tends
to increase the total social security transfers. However, if the pressure
exerted by a group is described by a function with decreasing marginal
returns to size, an increase in the number of elderly decreases the
duration of retirement and may decrease the per head social security
transfer.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 93-120
Issue: 2
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
Keywords: pressure groups, political economy, duration of retirement, social security transfer,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490479002
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490479002
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:93-120
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio Fagiolo
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: Fagiolo
Author-Name: Luigi Marengo
Author-X-Name-First: Luigi
Author-X-Name-Last: Marengo
Author-Name: Marco Valente
Author-X-Name-First: Marco
Author-X-Name-Last: Valente
Title: ENDOGENOUS NETWORKS IN RANDOM POPULATION GAMES
Abstract:
Population learning in dynamic economies traditionally has been studied
in contexts where payoff landscapes are smooth. Here, dynamic population
games take place over “rugged” landscapes, where agents are
uncertain about payoffs from bilateral interactions. Notably, individual
payoffs from playing a binary action against everyone else are uniformly
distributed over [0, 1]. This random population game leads the population
to adapt over time, with agents updating both actions and partners. Agents
evaluate payoffs associated to networks thanks to simple statistics of the
distributions of payoffs associated to all combinations of actions
performed by agents out of the interaction set. Simulations show that: (1)
allowing for endogenous networks implies higher average payoff compared to
static networks; (2) the statistics used to evaluate payoffs affect
convergence to steady-state; and (3) for statistics MIN or MAX, the
likelihood of efficient population learning strongly depends on whether
agents are change-averse or not in discriminating between options
delivering the same expected payoff.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 121-147
Issue: 2
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
Keywords: dynamic population games, bounded rationality, endogenous networks, fitness landscapes, evolutionary environments, adaptive expectations,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490480622
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480490480622
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:121-147
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Laura Temime
Author-X-Name-First: Laura
Author-X-Name-Last: Temime
Author-Name: Pierre-Yves Boëlle
Author-X-Name-First: Pierre-Yves
Author-X-Name-Last: Boëlle
Author-Name: Guy Thomas
Author-X-Name-First: Guy
Author-X-Name-Last: Thomas
Title: Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling of Pneumococcal Resistance to Penicillin
Abstract:
A stochastic compartmental model of the progression of pneumococcal
resistance to penicillin G in a human community is built, through
intra-individual selection and inter-individual transmission. It is
structured by the resistance level of colonizing bacteria and driven by
jump intensity functions. The Markov process associated with the model
tends to the solution of a deterministic system when the size of the
population tends to infinity. The behavior of the stochastic mean sample
path is simulated for small population sizes and compared to the solution
of the limit deterministic system. For populations over 5,000 individuals,
the deterministic solution is a good approximation of the mean stochastic
sample path. Both stochastic and deterministic predictions have proved
useful to understand resistance selection mechanisms and to evaluate
strategies for resistance prevention, such as a reduction in antibiotic
consumption or vaccination.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-16
Issue: 1
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: antibiotic resistance, S. pneumoniae, deterministic models, stochastic models,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902154
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480590902154
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrei Rogers
Author-X-Name-First: Andrei
Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers
Author-Name: Luis Castro
Author-X-Name-First: Luis
Author-X-Name-Last: Castro
Author-Name: Megan Lea
Author-X-Name-First: Megan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lea
Title: Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods
Abstract:
Observed schedules of migration rates exhibit strong regularities in age
patterns. These regularities may be captured and represented by a
mathematical expression known as the multiexponential model migration
schedule. Fitting this function to empirical data requires non-linear
regression methods and often some experimentation with alternative initial
estimates of the parameters. Simpler, linear methods of estimation are
adequate for most applications. These may be carried out with hand
calculators or simple spreadsheet-based calculations on the computer. Such
methods are studied and appear to perform satisfactorily.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 17-38
Issue: 1
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: migration, model schedules, linear estimation, age patterns, parameter transformations, typology of schedules,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902145
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Basel Al-Eideh
Author-X-Name-First: Basel
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Eideh
Title: Estimation of the Parameters of a Survival Process with Downward Jumps in Life Table
Abstract:
Parameters for the birth and death diffusion life table model subject to
downward jumps randomly occurring at a constant rate are estimated. The
jump magnitudes have a beta distribution with support [0, lx], where lx is
the total number of survivors prior to the jump. The estimation method is
maximum likelihood. The Cramer-Rao Lower bound and the asymptotic
distribution for the MLE are derived. The model is applied to the U.S.
men's population from 1900 to 1999.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 39-50
Issue: 1
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: birth and death diffusion process, maximum likelihood estimation, jump process, Cramer Rao lower bound, life table,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590902163
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: I. Akushevich
Author-X-Name-First: I.
Author-X-Name-Last: Akushevich
Author-Name: A. Kulminski
Author-X-Name-First: A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kulminski
Author-Name: K. G. Manton
Author-X-Name-First: K. G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Manton
Title: Life Tables with Covariates: Dynamic Model for Nonlinear Analysis of Longitudinal Data
Abstract:
Life table models based on nonlinear dynamics of risk factors are
developed using stochastic differential Equations for individual changes
and on the resulting Fokker-Planck equation to describe population
changes. Central to the model is a microsimulation strategy developed as a
numerical procedure to represent a mortality effect when analytic
approaches are not applicable. The model is applied to the Framingham
Heart Study 46-year follow-up data. Life table functions and projections
of risk factors are calculated to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on
observable quantities over time. A set of statistically significant
nonlinear contributions to covariate dynamics is identified. Their
synergistic effect on dynamics and use of them as “new” risk
factors are discussed. An important advantage of this approach is the
ability to study the effects of health interventions at the individual
level. This is illustrated in several examples.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 51-80
Issue: 2
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: stochastic differential Equations, quadratic hazard, life table, risk factors, Fokker-Planck equation, longitudinal data,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590932296
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco Billari
Author-X-Name-First: Francesco
Author-X-Name-Last: Billari
Author-Name: Raffaella Piccarreta
Author-X-Name-First: Raffaella
Author-X-Name-Last: Piccarreta
Title: Analyzing Demographic Life Courses through Sequence Analysis
Abstract:
Considering demographic life courses as sequences, non recurrent and
recurrent sequences are distinguished from each other. The description of
life courses in terms of sequences leads to distinguish atomistic from
holistic and static from dynamic approaches. Optimal matching and a
monothetic divisive algorithm for the clustering of sequences of life
courses are shown to be useful tools. The methods are applied to the
sequence analysis of the transition to adulthood from the Italian
Fertility and Family Survey.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 81-106
Issue: 2
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: life course, sequence analysis, monothetic divisive algorithms, optimal matching, multi-state demography, event history analysis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590932287
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:81-106
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Camille Roth
Author-X-Name-First: Camille
Author-X-Name-Last: Roth
Author-Name: Paul Bourgine
Author-X-Name-First: Paul
Author-X-Name-Last: Bourgine
Title: Epistemic Communities: Description and Hierarchic Categorization
Abstract:
Understanding the structure of knowledge communities, and particularly
the organization of “epistemic communities”, or groups of
agents sharing common knowledge concerns, is usually based on either
social relationships or semantic similarity. To link social and semantic
aspects, a formal framework based on Galois lattices (or concept lattices)
categorizes epistemic communities in an automated and hierarchically
structured way. The process rebuilds a whole community structure and
taxonomy, and notably fields and subfields gathering a certain proportion
of agents. It is applied to empirical data to exhibit these alleged
structural properties, successfully compared with categories given by
domain experts.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 107-130
Issue: 2
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: social complex systems, community representation and categorization, scientometrics, applied epistemology, knowledge discovery in databases,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480590931404
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:107-130
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jose Dias
Author-X-Name-First: Jose
Author-X-Name-Last: Dias
Author-Name: Frans Willekens
Author-X-Name-First: Frans
Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens
Title: Model-based Clustering of Sequential Data with an Application to Contraceptive Use Dynamics
Abstract:
Multi-state models describe the transitions people experience as life
unfolds. The transition probabilities depend on sex, age, and attributes
of the person and the context. Empirical evidence suggests that attributes
that cannot be measured directly may at most be inferred from a long list
of observable characteristics. A cluster-based, discrete-time multi-state
model is presented, where transition probabilities are estimated
simultaneously for several subpopulations of a heterogeneous population.
The subpopulations are not defined a priori but are determined on the
basis of similarities in behavior in order to determine which women
exhibit similar characteristics with respect to method choice, method
switch, discontinuation and subsequent resumption of contraceptive use.
The data are from the life history calendar based on the Brazilian
Demographic and Health Survey 1996. The parameters of the model are
estimated using the EM algorithm. Seven subpopulations with heterogeneous
transition probabilities are identified.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 135-157
Issue: 3
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: finite mixture models, Markov models, unobserved heterogeneity, contraceptive use dynamics, life history calendar,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005168
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Arnaud Valence
Author-X-Name-First: Arnaud
Author-X-Name-Last: Valence
Title: Demand Dynamics in a Psycho-Socio-Economic Evolving Network of Consumers
Abstract:
In a model of demand dynamics, consumers are linked to each other both in
the agent space and in the commodity space and are subject to viability
constraints stipulating that only specific configurations of demand are
possible. The viability of demand is re-established through both
centralized and decentralized, social and learning coordination
mechanisms. The framework leads to different results depending on the
field of application. In market dynamics theory, the framework
characterizes an a posteriori supply and demand law, where social
mechanisms are market prices and learning mechanisms the endogenous
adaptation of supply. In monetary regulation theory, coordination
mechanisms are interest rates and agents' solvability is allowed through
both micro and macro-monetary regulation. In a demand model with
frustration, agents control their frustration using the representative
frustration of society, and the decentralized learning mechanism leads to
a selection of neighbors. In a model with consumer sub-groups, the demand
regulation adds an identity-building process to lifestyles and mimetic
behaviors to lifestyles.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 159-179
Issue: 3
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: consumers, endogenous preferences, reaction functions, evolutionary economics, dynamical networks, connectionist operators,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005177
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:159-179
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Title: A Review of: “Forecasting Product Liability Claims”
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-182
Issue: 3
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480591005186
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480591005186
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:181-182
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: P. Baili
Author-X-Name-First: P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Baili
Author-Name: A. Micheli
Author-X-Name-First: A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Micheli
Author-Name: A. Montanari
Author-X-Name-First: A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Montanari
Author-Name: R. Capocaccia
Author-X-Name-First: R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Capocaccia
Title: Comparison of Four Methods for Estimating Complete Life Tables from Abridged Life Tables Using Mortality Data Supplied to EUROCARE-3
Abstract:
To estimate mortality due to cancer, it is necessary to have mortality
data by year of age in the population of cancer patients. When such data
are not available, estimating one-year (complete) life tables from
five-year (abridged) life tables is necessary. Four such
methods—Elandt-Johnson, Kostaki, Brass logit, and Akima spline
methods—are compared with respect to 782 empirical complete life
tables pertaining to 19 European regions or countries, from 1954 to 2000.
Abridged life tables are first derived from the empirical ones, then used
to produce one-year-life tables by each of the four methods. These
reconstituted complete life tables are then compared with the empirical
complete life tables. Among the four methods, the Elandt-Johnson
demographic method produces the best reconstitutions at adult ages,
specifically those ages at which observed cancer survival needs to be
corrected.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 183-198
Issue: 4
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: abridged life tables, complete life tables, EUROCARE-3, general mortality,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301751
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500301751
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:183-198
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Demongeot
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques
Author-X-Name-Last: Demongeot
Author-Name: Jules Waku
Author-X-Name-First: Jules
Author-X-Name-Last: Waku
Title: Counter-Examples about Lower- and Upper-Bounded Population Growth
Abstract:
For a unimodal growth function f having its maximum at a critical state
xc, the interval bounding the population size asymptotically is usually
presented as being equal to [f○2(xc), f(xc)]. This interval however
does not represent the maximum range within which the population size can
vary, even asymptotically. The actual invariant interval containing the
population size is equal to: [min(x*, f○2(xc)), f(xc)], where x*
denotes the non-zero fixed point, assumed to be unique, of the iteration
of f.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 199-209
Issue: 4
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: interval iteration, invariant domain, population dynamics, growth model, Verhulst model, Ricker model,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301785
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:199-209
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Khalid Kassara
Author-X-Name-First: Khalid
Author-X-Name-Last: Kassara
Title: Feedback Spreading Control Applied to Immunotherapy
Abstract:
How should immunotherapy be controlled so as to eliminate cancer cells
from a tissue? The populations of immune cells, tumor cells, chemokine and
complexes are governed by four semilinear partial differential equations
controlled by both the dosage of effector cells and the therapy zone. The
corresponding control problems are formulated in the framework of feedback
spreading control (FSC) seeking to expand the zones without tumor cells to
the entire tissue. Algorithms for computing FSC laws are used to
demonstrate how the dosage of effector cells and the therapy zones are
determined in order to provide feedback therapy protocols which keep the
patient healthy.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 211-221
Issue: 4
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Keywords: Immunotherapy, mathematical modelling, cell population dynamics, spreading control,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500301819
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500301819
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:211-221
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Piet De Jong
Author-X-Name-First: Piet
Author-X-Name-Last: De Jong
Author-Name: Leonie Tickle
Author-X-Name-First: Leonie
Author-X-Name-Last: Tickle
Title: Extending Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting
Abstract:
The Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting is outlined, discussed
and improved utilizing standard time series approaches. The new framework,
which integrates estimation and forecasting, delivers more robust results
and permits more detailed insight into underlying mortality dynamics. An
application to women's mortality data illustrates the methods.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-18
Issue: 1
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: Lee-Carter method, forecasting, Kalman filtering, mortality,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452109
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500452109
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: David Steinsaltz
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Steinsaltz
Author-Name: Kenneth Wachter
Author-X-Name-First: Kenneth
Author-X-Name-Last: Wachter
Title: Understanding Mortality Rate Deceleration and Heterogeneity
Abstract:
Generic relationships between heterogeneity in population frailty and
flattening of aggregate population hazard functions at extreme ages are
drawn from classical mathematical results on the limiting behavior of
Laplace transforms. In particular, it shows that the population hazard
function converges to a constant precisely when the distribution of
unobserved heterogeneity in initial mortalities behaves asymptotically as
a polynomial near zero.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 19-37
Issue: 1
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: frailty, heterogeneity, biodemography, hazard functions, Laplace transforms, mortality plateaus,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452117
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:1:p:19-37
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giuseppe De Marco
Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe
Author-X-Name-Last: De Marco
Author-Name: Maria Romaniello
Author-X-Name-First: Maria
Author-X-Name-Last: Romaniello
Title: Dynamics of Mixed Coalitions Under Social Cohesion Constraints
Abstract:
The performance to a collective task may require a certain degree of
cooperation among agents. Is cooperation viable in the sense that
individual needs are fulfilled, compromises are possible and the task is
performed? A model of cooperation is presented in which compromises are
also ruled by cohesion among agents. Viability conditions are found
associated with regulation law. They say that cooperation increases with
cohesion. Moreover, reducing the rapidity of change of cooperation and
lowering dissident behavior correct the dynamics so as to turn non viable
states into viable ones.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 39-62
Issue: 1
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: dynamic cooperative game, majority game, mixed coalition, cohesion constraint, viability theory,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500452133
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480500452133
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ahmad Hleihel
Author-X-Name-First: Ahmad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hleihel
Title: Differences in Population Estimates Between an Administrative System and Census: The Case of Israel
Abstract:
The component method of population estimation relies on census counts,
vital statistics, and internal and international migration. In Israel, all
individuals' events are registered. To apply the component method,
individuals' records from the census and the administrative data are
aggregated to give population estimates. However, this method disconnects
individual from aggregated characteristics, and differences appear in
individual characteristics between census and administrative data. The
Israel Central Bureau of Statistics conducted individual follow-ups. The
pros and cons of each method are presented. On average, individual
estimates on statistical areas are larger than aggregate estimates, and
the differences are stable after several years. The individual estimates
are preferable under at least four situations: in conducting a registry of
emigrants; in conducting a census of institutions; where administrative
files are available; and where census method is suitable to this method.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 63-82
Issue: 2
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: statistical areas, population estimates, census, component method, population registry, administrative files,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600619995
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600619995
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:63-82
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Prakash Gorroochurn
Author-X-Name-First: Prakash
Author-X-Name-Last: Gorroochurn
Author-Name: Susan Hodge
Author-X-Name-First: Susan
Author-X-Name-Last: Hodge
Title: Estimating Allele Frequencies and Inbreeding Coefficients in K-Allele Models
Abstract:
Some of the methods of estimation of allele frequencies and inbreeding
coefficients in a K-allele model are examined. A result that has long been
assumed to be true is proved. That is, in the presence of inbreeding, the
maximum likelihood estimators of the allele frequencies and of the
inbreeding coefficient f do not in general equal their observed (or
sample) values (except when K = 2). A least-squares way of
looking at the estimation problem is presented, and simulations are used
to compare the three types of estimators (sample, maximum likelihood, and
least-squares) in a 3-allele model. Probability generating functions are
used to derive exact expressions for the bias of the sample estimator of f
in a 2-allele model for any sample size, and those biases are calculated
for a number of situations. Finally, an approximately unbiased estimator
of the inbreeding coefficient when an allele is rare or common is
proposed, and its bias is compared with that of the sample estimator and
with that of an estimator proposed by Weir (1996).
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 83-103
Issue: 2
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, maximum likelihood, least-squares, probability generating function,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620027
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600620027
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:83-103
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nan Li
Author-X-Name-First: Nan
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Title: The Momentum of Real Population Under Linear Fertility Transition
Abstract:
Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a
demographic transition to its initial size before the transition. For
stable population and instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Keyfitz
found a simple formula for the momentum. Although Keyfitz's formula has
been extended to cover gradual demographic transitions, the stable initial
population, however, is still an obstacle to approaching reality. Using
the solution of the Lotka equation with time-varying vital rates and
extending it to negative values of time, exact and accurate formulae for
the momentum of any initial population that undergoes a linear fertility
transition are expressed. Examples using the data from the United Nations
indicate that the accurate formula works well for the age structures that
are far from stable such as the more and less developed regions, as well
as that close to stable such as the least developed region.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 105-116
Issue: 2
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: momentum, real population, linear fertility transition,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600620035
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600620035
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:105-116
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli
Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo
Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli
Author-Name: Tanya Kostova
Author-X-Name-First: Tanya
Author-X-Name-Last: Kostova
Author-Name: Fabio Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: Epidemics in Wildlife
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 117-118
Issue: 3
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600878500
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600878500
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:117-118
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Frank Hilker
Author-X-Name-First: Frank
Author-X-Name-Last: Hilker
Author-Name: Horst Malchow
Author-X-Name-First: Horst
Author-X-Name-Last: Malchow
Title: Strange Periodic Attractors in a Prey-Predator System with Infected Prey
Abstract:
Strange periodic attractors with complicated, long-lasting transient
dynamics are found in a prey-predator model with disease transmission in
the prey. The model describes viral infection of a phytoplankton
population and grazing by zooplankton. The analysis of the
three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations yields several
semi-trivial stationary states, among them two saddle-foci, and the sudden
(dis-)appearance of a continuum of degenerated nontrivial equilibria.
Along this continuum line, the equilibria undergo a fold-Hopf (zero-pair)
bifurcation (also called zip bifurcation). The continuum only exists in
the bifurcation point of the saddle-foci. Especially interesting is the
emergence of strange periodic attractors, stabilizing themselves after a
repeated torus-like oscillation. This form of coexistence is related to
persistent and permanent ecological communities and to bursting phenomena.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 119-134
Issue: 3
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: Fold-Hopf (zero-pair) bifurcation, permanence, predation, strange periodic attractor, viral plankton infection, zip bifurcation,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788568
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:119-134
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christopher Kribs-Zaleta
Author-X-Name-First: Christopher
Author-X-Name-Last: Kribs-Zaleta
Title: Vector Consumption and Contact Process Saturation in Sylvatic Transmission of T. cruzi
Abstract:
Recent research in the transmission of the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma
cruzi, some strains of which cause Chagas' disease, suggests that
consumption of vectors by sylvatic hosts such as raccoons may play a role
in maintaining the transmission cycle in the wild. As both hosts and
vectors have been observed to invade new ecological niches, it is
important to consider the effect vector consumption may have on vector
density. For this reason a per individual contact rate is employed which
rises roughly linearly for low vector densities and saturates for high
densities. The model under study thus superimposes a predator-prey
structure on a host-vector infection cycle (with first one, and then
multiple, hosts). Outbreak behavior follows classical threshold behavior
through the reproductive number R0, which allows evaluation of the
importance of this transmission avenue relative to the traditional route.
For sufficiently sharp contact rate saturation, two locally stable vector
densities may exist.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 135-152
Issue: 3
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: Chagas' disease, contact rate saturation, predator-prey, vector consumption,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788576
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600788576
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:135-152
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cedric Wolf
Author-X-Name-First: Cedric
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolf
Author-Name: Michel Langlais
Author-X-Name-First: Michel
Author-X-Name-Last: Langlais
Author-Name: Frank Sauvage
Author-X-Name-First: Frank
Author-X-Name-Last: Sauvage
Author-Name: Dominique Pontier
Author-X-Name-First: Dominique
Author-X-Name-Last: Pontier
Title: A Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Periodic Demography, Direct and Indirect Transmission and Variable Maturation Rate
Abstract:
A deterministic epidemic model describes the propagation of Puumala
hantavirus within the bank vole population of Clethrionomys glareolus. The
host population is split into juvenile and adult individuals. Demographic
parameters are time periodic. A further spatial structure is considered
using a multi-patch model. Indirect transmission through environment is
considered. Maturation and dispersion rates for juvenile individuals are
adult density-dependent. Using bifurcation techniques, small periodic
perturbations of constant coefficients are shown to lead to the emergence
of periodic endemic states from locally asymptotically stable stationary
states. Numerical simulations show that in some circumstances the virus is
favored by periodical dynamics compared with constant dynamics.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 153-177
Issue: 3
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: host-parasite system, spatial structure, periodical dynamics, density dependent maturation and dispersal rates, contaminated environment, endemic states,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600788584
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600788584
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:153-177
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli
Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo
Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli
Author-Name: Marek Kimmel
Author-X-Name-First: Marek
Author-X-Name-Last: Kimmel
Title: Facing Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 179-179
Issue: 4
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950432
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950432
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:179-179
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Silvia Martorano Raimundo†
Author-X-Name-First: Silvia Martorano
Author-X-Name-Last: Raimundo†
Author-Name: Hyun Mo Yang†
Author-X-Name-First: Hyun Mo
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang†
Title: Transmission of Tuberculosis with Exogenous Re-infection and Endogenous Reactivation
Abstract:
A theoretical framework to assess the transmission dynamics of
Tuberculosis (TB) is developed. Once infected with Mycobacterium
tuberculosis, individuals can either develop active TB or remain infected
for the rest of their life unless endogenous reactivation or exogenous
re-infection occurs. The effects of vaccination and treatment of active TB
cases suggest that even if these control strategies could have a
significant effect on reducing TB incidence, the exogenous re-infection
and the endogenous reactivation, mainly due to HIV infection, will still
increase the incidence of TB.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-203
Issue: 4
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: endogenous reactivation, exogenous re-infection, mathematical modeling, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950457
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:181-203
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Roberts
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Roberts
Title: Modeling Strategies for Containing an Invading Infection
Abstract:
An integral equation model of Kermack-McKendrick type is proposed for
describing the dynamics of an infectious disease invading a susceptible
population. Modifications of the model, including control strategies based
on the isolation of infectious individuals and targeted vaccination, are
described. In the model the incidence of infection is structured according
to the location of exposure, and parameterization requires some knowledge
of the infectivity kernel and the initial rate of exponential increase of
cases. The model was motivated by the risk to a community from the global
epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, and the
prospect of future epidemics of emerging infections. It is also applicable
where terrorists may use an infectious agent such as smallpox as a weapon.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 205-214
Issue: 4
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950473
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950473
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:205-214
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Claudia Pio Ferreira†
Author-X-Name-First: Claudia Pio
Author-X-Name-Last: Ferreira†
Author-Name: Petronio Pulino
Author-X-Name-First: Petronio
Author-X-Name-Last: Pulino
Author-Name: Hyun Mo Yang†
Author-X-Name-First: Hyun Mo
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang†
Author-Name: Lucy Tiemi Takahashi
Author-X-Name-First: Lucy Tiemi
Author-X-Name-Last: Takahashi
Title: Controlling Dispersal Dynamics of Aedes aegypti
Abstract:
The dengue virus is transmitted in regions previously infested with the
mosquito Aedes aegypti. To assess the spreading and establishment of the
dengue disease vector, a mathematical model is developed that takes into
account the diffusion and advection phenomena. A discrete model based on
the cellular automata approach, which is a good framework to deal with
small populations, is also developed to be compared with the continuous
modeling.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 215-236
Issue: 4
Volume: 13
Year: 2006
Keywords: Aedes aegypti, biological invasion, cellular automata, control, dengue disease, diffusion equation,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480600950515
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480600950515
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:13:y:2006:i:4:p:215-236
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tanya Kostova
Author-X-Name-First: Tanya
Author-X-Name-Last: Kostova
Author-Name: Fabio Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 1
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090618
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480601090618
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nikolaos Sfikas
Author-X-Name-First: Nikolaos
Author-X-Name-Last: Sfikas
Author-Name: David Greenhalgh
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Greenhalgh
Author-Name: Fraser Lewis
Author-X-Name-First: Fraser
Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis
Title: The Basic Reproduction Number and the Vaccination Coverage Required to Eliminate Rubella from England and Wales
Abstract:
Bootstrapping is used to estimate the effectiveness of different
vaccination strategies for rubella in England and Wales. It is assumed
that rubella infection follows the deterministic age-structured model
discussed by Dietz and Schenzle (1985). The bootstrap is used to estimate
percentile confidence intervals for the basic reproductive number and the
minimum elimination proportions under one and two stage vaccination
campaigns for rubella. The results of differing mixing assumptions and the
effects of kernel smoothing are also considered. Previous estimates of the
basic reproduction number and minimum elimination vaccination proportions
for rubella and similar diseases are discussed and the results compared
with those of the article. For homogeneous mixing only, the estimates are
much lower than previous estimates. For more realistic symmetric mixing a
worse 'reasonable' vaccination coverage estimate of around 87% of children
as young as possible is needed to eliminate rubella in England and Wales.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 3-29
Issue: 1
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: basic reproduction number, bootstrap, immunization, minimum elimination vaccination strategy, mixing, rubella,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090634
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: R. Norman
Author-X-Name-First: R.
Author-X-Name-Last: Norman
Author-Name: R. G. Bowers
Author-X-Name-First: R. G.
Author-X-Name-Last: Bowers
Title: A Host-Host-Pathogen Model with Vaccination and its Application to Target and Reservoir Hosts
Abstract:
A simple theoretical framework is presented that addresses the question
of how different vaccination strategies work against a pathogen which
infects two species. This is first studied in purely theoretical terms to
determine which equilibria will be stable for which parameter
combinations. Two special cases are then presented, and the asymptotic
population dynamical consequences of differing vaccination strategies are
determined. In particular systems are described for which there is a
wildlife host reservoir and a domestic (target) host. It is found that
when the target host cannot maintain the disease alone, and the presence
of the reservoir causes the target host to be eradicated by the disease,
vaccinating the target species allows coexistence of the two species with
the pathogen, but will not allow disease eradication. It is then shown
that this result also holds when a proportion of the population is
vaccinated at birth.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 31-56
Issue: 1
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: disease, mathematical model, reservoir, target, vaccination,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090667
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:31-56
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Shu-Fang Hsu Schmitz
Author-X-Name-First: Shu-Fang Hsu
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmitz
Title: The Influence of Treatment- and Vaccination-induced Changes in the Risky Contact Rate on HIV Transmission
Abstract:
The influence of treatment- or vaccination-induced changes in the risky
contact rate (RCR) on HIV transmission in the homosexual population of San
Francisco is investigated, given the heterogeneous susceptibility and
progression rates of the mutant allele CCR5 Δ32. Susceptible
individuals have no, partial, or complete immunity against HIV. Some
susceptible newcomers are vaccinated. Infected individuals have a slow, a
normal, or a rapid progression rate. Some newly infected individuals are
treated. Vaccinated and treated individuals may change the RCR, the
influence of which is quantified by the change in the basic reproductive
numbers obtained from differential equations. If vaccination increases
(decreases) the RCR, the epidemic will decrease (increase). If the
treatment increases (decreases) the RCR, the epidemic will increase
(decrease). The influence of treated individuals is much higher than the
influence of vaccinated individuals. Prophylactic effort should be devoted
more to preventing an increase of the RCR in treated individuals than to
preventing a decrease of the RCR in vaccinated individuals.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 57-76
Issue: 1
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: basic reproductive number, contact rate, HIV transmission, homosexual, treatment, vaccination,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480601090683
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nicolas Brouard
Author-X-Name-First: Nicolas
Author-X-Name-Last: Brouard
Author-Name: Silvia Pontone
Author-X-Name-First: Silvia
Author-X-Name-Last: Pontone
Author-Name: Philippe Scherpereel
Author-X-Name-First: Philippe
Author-X-Name-Last: Scherpereel
Title: Modeling Multisite Activity from Occupational Surveys: Deducing the Number of Anesthesiologists from a Count of Anesthesiology Posts in France
Abstract:
Reliable data on the total number of physicians practicing in France
cannot be obtained from national professional or administrative files
which are not kept to date. From a public health standpoint, the total
number of physicians' posts in establishments matters more than the actual
total number of physicians, although the latter is necessary for
demographic projections and to determine training needs. Shared work in
the same post is sometimes encouraged to avoid closure of the post or even
of the establishment. The relationship between the total number of posts
in an occupation and the total number of individuals working in those
posts depend on the duration of a reference period for the enumeration. An
original model of this relationship is developed and applied to a count of
anesthesiology posts in France with different values of the reference
period. Instead of the usual question “How many anesthesiologists
are currently working in your hospital?” the model suggests that
the right question is “How many anesthesiologists have been working
in your institute since the last 2.5 weeks?”. The total number of
anesthesia and intensive care practitioners estimated by the model is
8,992 which is lower than the direct count of 9,741 posts.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 77-92
Issue: 2
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: anesthesiology, health manpower, mathematical modeling, professional practice, survey analysis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298335
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:77-92
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Warren J. Ewens
Author-X-Name-First: Warren J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Ewens
Author-Name: Arindam Roy Choudhury
Author-X-Name-First: Arindam Roy
Author-X-Name-Last: Choudhury
Author-Name: Richard C. Lewontin
Author-X-Name-First: Richard C.
Author-X-Name-Last: Lewontin
Author-Name: Carsten Wiuf
Author-X-Name-First: Carsten
Author-X-Name-Last: Wiuf
Title: Two Variance Results in Population Genetics Theory
Abstract:
The assessment of the degree of genetic variation in a natural
population, and the nature of that variation, is of central importance in
both theoretical and applied population studies. Two
“variance” results in population genetics theory are
presented. For the first, expressions are found for the expected
difference in the estimates of genetic variation in a population obtained
by two investigators sampling from the same population in the same
generation. The second result concerns the question of whether the degree
of genetic variation in a population is best estimated by using the number
of alleles observed in a sample of genes or by the number of polymorphic
sites observed in the sample. For some combinations of the actual degree
of variation and the sample size the former is preferred while for other
combinations the latter is preferred. The reason for this is discussed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 93-110
Issue: 2
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: alleles, estimation, genetics, optimality, sites, variance,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298376
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:93-110
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nadia Lalam
Author-X-Name-First: Nadia
Author-X-Name-Last: Lalam
Author-Name: Christine Jacob
Author-X-Name-First: Christine
Author-X-Name-Last: Jacob
Title: Bayesian Estimation for Quantification by Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction Under a Branching Process Model of the DNA Molecules Amplification Process
Abstract:
The aim of Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction is to determine the
initial amount X0 of specific nucleic acids from an observed trajectory of
the amplification process, the amplification being achieved through
successive replication cycles. This process depends on the efficiency
{pn}n of replication of the DNA molecules, pn being the probability that a
molecule will duplicate at replication cycle n. Assuming pn = p
for all n, Bayesian estimators of the unknown parameter
θ = (p, X0) are constructed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo
methods under a Bienayme-Galton-Watson branching model of the
amplification process. The Bayesian approach takes into account some prior
information on the parameter. Relying on simulated data, the proposed
Bayesian estimators and their credibility sets are shown to be quite
accurate.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 111-129
Issue: 2
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: 2000 mathematics subject classification: 60J85, 62F10, 92B15, 92D25, bayesian inference, branching processes, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, population dynamics, quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701298418
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:2:p:111-129
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hisashi Inaba
Author-X-Name-First: Hisashi
Author-X-Name-Last: Inaba
Title: Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events
Abstract:
Effects of age shift on the tempo and quantum of non-repeatable
demographic events are examined. The purpose is to develop a period index
theory based on the survival model and to provide a mathematically
consistent interpretation of Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment
arguments. The survival model for non-repeatable events is introduced. In
the time-inhomogeneous case, three types of period survival models are
considered. McKendrick equation is used to formulate the risk population
dynamics. The tempo and quantum indices for three period survival models
are computed when the period age shift occurs for the hazard, the
incidence, and the survival rates. Bongaarts and Feeney's tempo adjustment
arguments are consistently based on the scenario of the period age shift
on the survival rate, and they give translation formulae between period
indices without referring to cohort. Traditional demographic translation
formulae between cohort and period indices are reviewed to clarify
differences between cohort- and period-oriented translation procedures.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 131-168
Issue: 3
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: age shift, non-repeatable event, quantum, survival model, tempo,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426225
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426225
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:131-168
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mimmo Iannelli
Author-X-Name-First: Mimmo
Author-X-Name-Last: Iannelli
Author-Name: Piero Manfredi
Author-X-Name-First: Piero
Author-X-Name-Last: Manfredi
Title: Demographic Change and Immigration in Age-structured Epidemic Models
Abstract:
Immigration might be a remedy against the stress that low fertility
causes to demographic and welfare systems. Sustained immigration, however,
can alter both the demographic and epidemiological profiles of the
receiving population. An age-structured SIR
(susceptible-infective-recovered) model with realistic immigration under
conditions of below replacement fertility is studied. Equilibria and
threshold phenomena are characterized. The immigration profile and the
epidemiological features of immigrants affect the reproduction number and
the force of infection in the receiving population. Finally, an
illustration is given, showing the potential effects of immigration for
rubella control in Italy, by considering how the age profile of
immigration influences the reproduction number of the disease.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 169-191
Issue: 3
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: age-structure, epidemic models, immigration,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426241
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426241
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:169-191
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Li Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Li
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Author-Name: Qingguo Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Qingguo
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Name: Xiangming Xiao
Author-X-Name-First: Xiangming
Author-X-Name-Last: Xiao
Title: Convergence of a Discrete-Time Age-Structured Population Toward a Given Steady State Through Controlled Immigration
Abstract:
To explore the concept of stability in an age-structured population with
migration, a Markov transition matrix model is built, where age classes
can be of different length, and the time step is not necessarily equal to
the length of the age class. The conditions under which a vector of the
model has a steady population structure are identified, as well as those
under which the age structure converges to a given steady state, through a
series of decisions or controls of letting immigrants in or forbidding
them entry into the country. The decisions are expressed as vectors of
proportions of immigrants. In the steady state, when the increment of
population is proportional to its size, the age- or stage-structure
remains unchanged between transitions.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 193-201
Issue: 3
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Keywords: age-structured population, matrix model, stability, target-control,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701426258
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701426258
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:3:p:193-201
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MIRJAM KRETZSCHMAR
Author-X-Name-First: MIRJAM
Author-X-Name-Last: KRETZSCHMAR
Author-Name: JACCO WALLINGA
Author-X-Name-First: JACCO
Author-X-Name-Last: WALLINGA
Title: Editorial
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 203-209
Issue: 4
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612840
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612840
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:203-209
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JOHANNES MÜLER
Author-X-Name-First: JOHANNES
Author-X-Name-Last: MÜLLER
Author-Name: VOLKER HÖSEL
Author-X-Name-First: VOLKER
Author-X-Name-Last: HÖSEL
Title: Estimating the Tracing Probability from Contact History at the Onset of an Epidemic
Abstract:
Contact tracing is believed to be an effective method to
control infectious diseases. If an infected person is noticed (the index
case), one tries to find other infected persons through the contact
history of the index case. The distribution of the total number of
additionally detected persons per index case is derived, partially by
heuristic arguments. The reproduction number influences this distribution
only weakly, and the detection rate of index cases even less. This
distribution depends mainly on the tracing probability. An estimator for
the tracing probability is derived. This estimator is applied to data for
tuberculosis and chlamydia.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 211-236
Issue: 4
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612857
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612857
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:211-236
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: M. C. BOILY
Author-X-Name-First: M. C.
Author-X-Name-Last: BOILY
Author-Name: Z. ASGHAR
Author-X-Name-First: Z.
Author-X-Name-Last: ASGHAR
Author-Name: T. GARSKE
Author-X-Name-First: T.
Author-X-Name-Last: GARSKE
Author-Name: A. C. GHANI
Author-X-Name-First: A. C.
Author-X-Name-Last: GHANI
Author-Name: R. POULIN
Author-X-Name-First: R.
Author-X-Name-Last: POULIN
Title: Influence of Selected Formation Rules for Finite Population Networks with Fixed Macrostructures: Implications for Individual-Based Model of Infectious Diseases
Abstract:
Individual-based network models are increasingly being
applied to understand the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.
Research in this area has mostly focused on networks defined under a
limited set of rules (e.g., preferential attachment, sexual partner
formation and dissolution) that are supposed to mimic the real world but
are often defined heuristically due to lack of empirical knowledge. Here,
two different mechanisms (M- and
λ2-rules) were used to generate a wide range of networks
and to show the extent to which microstructures such as the mean component
size, the size of the giant component and the cumulative nomination
centrality index may vary between networks with fixed predetermined
macrostructure characteristics (size, node degree distribution and mixing
pattern) and influence disease transmission. It is important to carefully
consider the limitations of network models and to appreciate the extent to
which a given degree distribution and mixing pattern will be consistent
with a wide range of underlying network microstructures.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 237-267
Issue: 4
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612873
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612873
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:237-267
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: FREDRIK LILJEROS
Author-X-Name-First: FREDRIK
Author-X-Name-Last: LILJEROS
Author-Name: JOHAN GIESECKE
Author-X-Name-First: JOHAN
Author-X-Name-Last: GIESECKE
Author-Name: PETTER HOLME
Author-X-Name-First: PETTER
Author-X-Name-Last: HOLME
Title: The Contact Network of Inpatients in a Regional Healthcare System. A Longitudinal Case Study
Abstract:
Contact networks are extracted for 295,108 inpatients over a
two-year period from a database used for administering a local public
healthcare system that serves 1.8 million individuals in Stockholm county.
Structural and dynamic properties of the network that are important for
the transmission of contagious diseases are analyzed by methods derived
from network epidemiology. The contact networks are found to be very much
determined by an extreme (age-independent) variation in the duration of
hospital stays and the hospital structure. The structure of contacts
between inpatients are found to exhibit structural properties such as a
high level of transitivity, assortativity, and variation by number of
contacts, which are likely to be of importance for the transmission of
less contagious diseases. If these properties are considered when
designing prevention programs, the risk and effect of epidemic outbreaks
may be decreased.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 269-284
Issue: 4
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612899
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612899
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:269-284
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: Book Review of: "Indirect Sampling" by Pierre Lavallée
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 285-285
Issue: 4
Volume: 14
Year: 2007
Month: 11
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701612907
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480701612907
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:14:y:2007:i:4:p:285-285
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Raouf Boucekkine
Author-X-Name-First: Raouf
Author-X-Name-Last: Boucekkine
Author-Name: Bity Diene
Author-X-Name-First: Bity
Author-X-Name-Last: Diene
Author-Name: Theophile Azomahou
Author-X-Name-First: Theophile
Author-X-Name-Last: Azomahou
Title: Growth Economics of Epidemics: A Review of the Theory
Abstract:
This survey of economic growth theory applied to epidemiology highlights
that Blanchard-Yaari structures involving a Lucas human capital
accumulation are appropriate to study an AIDS-like crisis. Physical
capital accumulation, schooling, health expenditures and supply effects
are put together within a Blanchard two-sector economy to capture
life-cycle effects of AIDS-like epidemics.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-26
Issue: 1
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: AIDS, epidemics, growth theory, health, human capital, life expectancy,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792410
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792410
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:1-26
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Giorgio Fabbri
Author-X-Name-First: Giorgio
Author-X-Name-Last: Fabbri
Title: Viscosity Solutions to Delay Differential Equations in Demo-Economy
Abstract:
Economic and demographic models governed by linear delay differential
equations are expressed as optimal control problems in infinite
dimensions. A general objective function is considered and the concavity
of the Hamiltonian is not required. The value function is a viscosity
solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation and a verification
theorem is proved.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 27-54
Issue: 1
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: delay differential equation, vintage models, viscosity solutions,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792444
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792444
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:27-54
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fima Klebaner
Author-X-Name-First: Fima
Author-X-Name-Last: Klebaner
Author-Name: Robert Liptser
Author-X-Name-First: Robert
Author-X-Name-Last: Liptser
Title: Large Deviations Analysis of Extinction in Branching Models
Abstract:
Cramer's classical theorem is applied to obtain large deviations in
branching processes. This is a new avenue for analysis of models in
discrete and continuous time. For the Galton-Watson process a new formula
for the rate function in terms of the Legendre transform of its offspring
distribution is derived. Further analysis of the approximate path to
extinction produces a new interesting formula.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 55-69
Issue: 1
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: Cramer's theorem, extinction, Galton-Watson process, large deviations, Legendre transform,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480701792477
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480701792477
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:1:p:55-69
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO
Author-X-Name-First: NATALI
Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO
Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO
Author-X-Name-First: YURI
Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 71-72
Issue: 2
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010134
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010134
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:71-72
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JANET DYSON
Author-X-Name-First: JANET
Author-X-Name-Last: DYSON
Author-Name: ROSANNA VILLELLA-BRESSAN
Author-X-Name-First: ROSANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: VILLELLA-BRESSAN
Author-Name: GLENN WEBB
Author-X-Name-First: GLENN
Author-X-Name-Last: WEBB
Title: An Age and Spatially Structured Model of Tumor Invasion with Haptotaxis II
Abstract:
An analysis of a model of tumor growth into surrounding tissue is
continued from an earlier treatment, in which the global existence of
unique solutions to the model was established. The model consists of a
system of nonlinear partial differential equations for the population
densities of tumor cells, extracellular matrix macromolecules, oxygen
concentration, and extracellular matrix degradative enzyme concentration.
The spatial growth of the tumor involves the directed movement of tumor
cells toward the extracellular matrix through haptotaxis. Cell age is used
to track progression of cells through the cell cycle. Regularity,
positivity, and global bounds of the solutions of the model are proved.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-95
Issue: 2
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: analytic semigroup, cell proliferation, degradation enzyme, diffusion, extracellular matrix, fractional power, haptotaxis, tumor cells,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010159
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010159
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:73-95
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO
Author-X-Name-First: NATALI
Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO
Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO
Author-X-Name-First: YURI
Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO
Title: Can Technological Change Sustain Retirement in an Aging Population?
Abstract:
A model of the governmental control of age at retirement uses population
age structures, productivity, employment, and money income. The
sustainability criterion is a sufficient level of individual money income
for all ages. The decision variables are the variable age at retirement
and the intensity of technological change. The model is calibrated on real
data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics between
1950 and 2005 and uses official U.S. population projections for 2006-2050.
The main result is that the extrapolation of current U.S. technological
trends can compensate negative demographic trends in the United States
without increasing the age at retirement.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 96-113
Issue: 2
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: age at retirement, age-structured population, demographic trends, sustainable development, technological change,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010167
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010167
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:96-113
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: LAURA-IULIA ANITA
Author-X-Name-First: LAURA-IULIA
Author-X-Name-Last: ANITA
Author-Name: SEBASTIAN ANITA
Author-X-Name-First: SEBASTIAN
Author-X-Name-Last: ANITA
Title: Asymptotic Behavior of the Solutions to Semi-linear Age-dependent Population Dynamics with Diffusion and Periodic Vital Rates
Abstract:
Ergodicity for a nonlinear age-dependent population model with diffusion
and T-periodic vital rates is investigated. The existence of at most one
non trivial T-periodic and nonnegative separable solution is proved.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 114-122
Issue: 2
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: age-structured population dynamics with diffusion, asymptotic behavior, ergodicity, logistic term, periodic vital rates, separable models,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010175
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010175
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:114-122
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOBUYUKI KATO
Author-X-Name-First: NOBUYUKI
Author-X-Name-Last: KATO
Title: Maximum Principle for Optimal Harvesting in Linear Size-Structured Population
Abstract:
An optimal harvesting problem for linear size-structured population
dynamics is considered. A maximum principle is shown and sufficient
conditions for the optimal control to be bang-bang are given.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-136
Issue: 2
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: bang-bang control, maximum principle, optimal harvesting, size-structured population,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802010241
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802010241
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:2:p:123-136
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: KENNETH MANTON
Author-X-Name-First: KENNETH
Author-X-Name-Last: MANTON
Author-Name: IGOR AKUSHEVICH
Author-X-Name-First: IGOR
Author-X-Name-Last: AKUSHEVICH
Author-Name: ALEXANDER KULMINSKI
Author-X-Name-First: ALEXANDER
Author-X-Name-Last: KULMINSKI
Title: Human Mortality at Extreme Ages: Data from the NLTCS and Linked Medicare Records
Abstract:
An analysis using the 1982-1999 National Long-term Care Survey (NLTCS)
linked to Medicare vital statistics data 1982-2003 focused on deaths at
ages 85 + where deviations from the Gompertz mortality function
are often observed. To model the complex mortality patterns observed at
late age, standard mortality functions were generalized with i) a location
parameter, ii) a fixed heterogeneity distribution, and iii) parameters
expressing heterogeneity in the individuals' rate of aging. The data are
consistent with not only an upper bound to mortality rates but also
declines in the yearly hazard rates at ages 100 + . To determine
if these patterns could be due to errors in age reporting, effects of
plausible age misreporting patterns were simulated. Biases due to age
misreporting at ages 95 to 115 did not materially change this pattern.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 137-159
Issue: 3
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: demographic heterogeneity, dynamic frailty, Medicare Part B data, mortality plateau, National Long-term Care Survey, senescence,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802221665
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802221665
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:137-159
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: FABIO MILNER
Author-X-Name-First: FABIO
Author-X-Name-Last: MILNER
Author-Name: RUIJUN ZHAO
Author-X-Name-First: RUIJUN
Author-X-Name-Last: ZHAO
Title: S-I-R Model with Directed Spatial Diffusion
Abstract:
A S-I-R epidemic model is described in which susceptible individuals move
away from foci of infection, and all individuals move away from
overcrowded regions. It consists of hyperbolic partial differential
equations, the sum of these equations being parabolic. Positivity and
regularity of solutions are discussed and finite time blow-up of some
solutions is illustrated through numerical simulations. A numerical test
of the finite time blow-up of solutions is proposed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 160-181
Issue: 3
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: directed spatial diffusion, finite time blow-up, S-I-R,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802221889
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802221889
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:160-181
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANDREI ROGERS
Author-X-Name-First: ANDREI
Author-X-Name-Last: ROGERS
Author-Name: BRYAN JONES
Author-X-Name-First: BRYAN
Author-X-Name-Last: JONES
Title: Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States
Abstract:
Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau plans to
drop its long-form questionnaire and to replace it with the American
Community Survey (ACS). The resulting absence of the larger sample
provided by the census count will complicate the measurement and analysis
of internal migration flows. In addition, the strategy of averaging
accumulated samples over time will mix changing migration patterns. The
migration question will refer to a one-year time interval instead of the
five-year interval used in the censuses between 1960 and 2000,
complicating historical comparisons and the production of multiregional
projections based on five-year age groups. Consequently, students of
territorial mobility increasingly will find it necessary to complement or
augment possibly inadequate data collected on migration with estimates
obtained by means of “indirect estimation.” A method is
presented that allows one to infer age-specific directional migration
propensities at the regional level from birthplace-specific infant
population data, which approximates infant migration propensities, and
from these infers the migration propensities of all other ages. The method
is applied to at the nine-division spatial scale.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 182-211
Issue: 3
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: indirect estimation, migration, United States,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802222283
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802222283
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:182-211
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE
Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF
Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE
Title: Editorial
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 213-213
Issue: 4
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440778
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440778
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:213-213
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: HIPPOLYTE D'ALBIS
Author-X-Name-First: HIPPOLYTE
Author-X-Name-Last: D'ALBIS
Author-Name: EMMANUELLE AUGERAUD-VERON
Author-X-Name-First: EMMANUELLE
Author-X-Name-Last: AUGERAUD-VERON
Title: Endogenous Retirement and Monetary Cycles
Abstract:
In a model of overlapping generations with a continuum of finitely lived
individuals, the aggregate price dynamics is characterized by a functional
differential equation of mixed type. Delays and advances are exogenous
when age at retirement is mandatory; they become state-dependent when
individuals are allowed to choose their age at retirement. Using the Hopf
bifurcation theorem, periodic solutions in the neighborhood of the
monetary steady state appearing with a mandatory retirement age vanish
with a chosen age.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 214-229
Issue: 4
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: differential equations with state-dependent delays and advances, endogenous fluctuations, Hopf bifurcation, overlapping generations models, retirement,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440786
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440786
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:214-229
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO
Author-X-Name-First: NATALI
Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO
Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO
Author-X-Name-First: YURI
Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO
Title: From Linear to Nonlinear Utility in Vintage Capital Models
Abstract:
Optimization problems with nonlinear utility and endogenous capital
lifetime are investigated in one- and two-sector modifications of the
Solow vintage capital model. Both models have the same balanced growth
path in the case of exponential technological change and labour. Turnpike
theorems in normal form are proved for the optimal capital lifetime in
both models. The differences between the cases of the linear and nonlinear
utility are highlighted.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 230-248
Issue: 4
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: balanced growth path, capital lifetime, nonlinear utility, optimization, turnpike theorems, vintage capital models,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440794
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440794
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:230-248
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: OMAR LICANDRO
Author-X-Name-First: OMAR
Author-X-Name-Last: LICANDRO
Author-Name: LUIS PUCH
Author-X-Name-First: LUIS
Author-X-Name-Last: PUCH
Author-Name: ANTONIO SAMPAYO
Author-X-Name-First: ANTONIO
Author-X-Name-Last: SAMPAYO
Title: A Vintage Model of Trade in Secondhand Markets and the Lifetime of Durable Goods
Abstract:
How is the replacement of durable goods affected by the existence of a
secondhand market? To answer this question, a vintage model of durable
goods replacement is specified where efficient trade in used goods arises
by assuming the existence of two types of consumers differentiated by
income. The resulting steady state optimal replacement decision and
secondhand market price are characterized, stressing the influence of
economic depreciation. Compared to autarky, the consideration of an
efficient secondhand market between high and low income people modifies
the age profile of prices, increasing and decreasing for durable goods
owned by high and low income people, respectively. Moreover, at the age at
which used durable goods are traded, not only ask and bid prices are equal
but also their age derivatives.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 249-266
Issue: 4
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: economic obsolescence, heterogeneous consumers, optimal consumption, replacement, secondhand markets, vintage capital,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440828
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440828
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:249-266
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: GIORGIO FABBRI
Author-X-Name-First: GIORGIO
Author-X-Name-Last: FABBRI
Author-Name: SILVIA FAGGIAN
Author-X-Name-First: SILVIA
Author-X-Name-Last: FAGGIAN
Author-Name: FAUSTO GOZZI
Author-X-Name-First: FAUSTO
Author-X-Name-Last: GOZZI
Title: On Dynamic Programming in Economic Models Governed by DDEs
Abstract:
A family of optimal control problems for economic models, where state
variables are driven by delay differential equations (DDEs) and subject to
constraints, is treated by Bellman's dynamic programming in infinite
dimensional spaces. An existence theorem is provided for the associated
Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation: the value function of the control
problem solves the HJB equation in a suitable sense (although such value
function cannot be computed explicitly). An AK model with vintage capital
and an advertising model with delay effect are taken as examples.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 267-290
Issue: 4
Volume: 15
Year: 2008
Keywords: delay differential equations, dynamic programming,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802440836
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802440836
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:267-290
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE
Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF
Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE
Title: Overlapping-Generations Models
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 1
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619462
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619462
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:1-1
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: DAVID CROIX
Author-X-Name-First: DAVID
Author-X-Name-Last: CROIX
Author-Name: ALESSANDRO SOMMACAL
Author-X-Name-First: ALESSANDRO
Author-X-Name-Last: SOMMACAL
Title: A Theory of Medical Effectiveness, Differential Mortality, Income Inequality and Growth for Pre-Industrial England
Abstract:
The interactions between mortality reductions and income growth are
studied, with a special attention at their relationship prior to the
Industrial Revolution, when income per head was stagnant. The choice of
individual medical spending is modelled, giving a rationale for individual
health expenditures even when medicine is not effective in postponing
death. The rise of effective medicine is then explained by a learning
process function of expenditure on health. The rise in effective medicine
is linked to the economic growth of the eighteenth century through life
expectancy increases which foster capital accumulation. The rise of
effective medicine has also had an effect on the relationship between
growth and inequality and on the intergenerational persistence of
differences in income. These channels are operative through differential
mortality induced by medical effectiveness that turns out to determine a
differential in the propensity to save among income groups.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 2-35
Issue: 1
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: differential mortality, health expenditure, life expectancy, propensity to save,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619538
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619538
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:2-35
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: PHILIPPE MICHEL
Author-X-Name-First: PHILIPPE
Author-X-Name-Last: MICHEL
Author-Name: BERTRAND WIGNIOLLE
Author-X-Name-First: BERTRAND
Author-X-Name-Last: WIGNIOLLE
Title: Pareto-Efficiency and Endogenous Fertility: A Simple Model
Abstract:
Pareto-efficiency of the competitive equilibrium is studied for a simple
economy with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility. For CES
utility and production functions, the properties of the economy are
closely related to the two elasticities of substitution. The competitive
equilibrium exists and is unique if the sum of the two elasticities is not
less than one. For certain parameters, the equilibrium is both in
under-accumulation and inefficient. When the sum of the two elasticities
is greater than two, an equilibrium converging in under-accumulation is
Pareto-efficient.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 36-59
Issue: 1
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: endogenous fertility, Pareto-efficiency,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619587
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619587
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:36-59
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: THIERRY BRECHET
Author-X-Name-First: THIERRY
Author-X-Name-Last: BRECHET
Author-Name: STEPHANE LAMBRECHT
Author-X-Name-First: STEPHANE
Author-X-Name-Last: LAMBRECHT
Title: Family Altruism with Renewable Resource and Population Growth
Abstract:
In an overlapping-generations model with non-constant population growth,
households own a natural renewable resource and have a family-altruism
resource bequest motive. The natural resource can be either extracted and
sold to firms, or bequeathed to children to increase their adult
disposable income. Numerical applications show how family altruism
interplays with population growth to shape the whole economy. The role of
altruism in the case of two negative demographic shocks shows that the
pressure on the natural resource is not necessarily reduced when
population size is lower. Transmission mechanisms between generations and
general equilibrium effects can yield unexpected outcomes. In particular,
family altruism can lead either to preserve or to waste the resource.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 60-78
Issue: 1
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: overlapping generations, population growth, renewable resource,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619645
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619645
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:60-78
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JEAN-PIERRE LAFFARGUE
Author-X-Name-First: JEAN-PIERRE
Author-X-Name-Last: LAFFARGUE
Title: Intergenerational Transfers and the Stability of Public Debt with Short-Lived Governments
Abstract:
Time consistent policies and reforms of intergenerational transfers are
analyzed in an overlapping generation model. Governments have preferences,
which give much weight to the living generations, and they cannot commit
themselves to future taxes and transfers, which will be decided by future
governments with different objectives. The economy follows one of two
equilibrium paths with perfect foresight. On one path, governments finance
the costs of their transfers to the living by increasing public debt
recklessly. Consumers pay more and more taxes to finance the cost of this
debt, and the successive generations will enter a process of
impoverishment. On the other path, in spite of their preference bias,
governments borrow less and put the economy on a path of egalitarian
consumption flows for the successive generations, with a constant ratio of
public debt to national income. The mechanisms, which put an economy on
one or the other equilibrium paths, are unconnected to the fundamentals of
the model.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 79-104
Issue: 1
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: intergenerational transfers, Markov perfect equilibrium, overlapping-generations model, time consistent policies,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480802619686
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480802619686
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:79-104
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: GEBRENEGUS GHILAGABER
Author-X-Name-First: GEBRENEGUS
Author-X-Name-Last: GHILAGABER
Author-Name: JOHAN KOSKINEN
Author-X-Name-First: JOHAN
Author-X-Name-Last: KOSKINEN
Title: Bayesian Adjustment of Anticipatory Covariates in Analyzing Retrospective Data
Abstract:
In retrospective surveys, records on important variables such as the
respondent's educational level and social class refer to what is achieved
by the date of the survey. Such variables are then used as covariates in
investigations of behavior such as marriage and divorce in life segments
that have occurred before the survey. To what extent can any change in the
behavior be attributed to the misclassification of respondents across the
various levels of the anticipatory variable? To what extent do they
reflect real differences in the behavior across the levels? The connection
is obtained by a Bayesian adjustment, by specifying a continuous-time
Markov model for the incompletely observed time-varying anticipatory
covariates, and by implementing standard Bayesian data augmentation
techniques. The issues are illustrated by estimating effects of
educational level on risks of divorce in a multiplicative
piecewise-constant hazard model. Results show that ignoring the
time-inconsistency of anticipatory variables may seriously plague the
analyses because the relative risks across the anticipatory educational
level are overestimated.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 105-130
Issue: 2
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: anticipatory analysis, Bayesian analysis, divorce, education, event-history analysis, MCMC, retrospective surveys,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790171
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790171
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:105-130
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARIANNE JONKER
Author-X-Name-First: MARIANNE
Author-X-Name-Last: JONKER
Title: Estimation of the Life Expectancy of Tenants in the Middle Ages
Abstract:
In England in the Middle Ages, inheritance data were recorded of tenants
who owned land from the Crown. Male adult mortality is estimated from
these data. A tenant was allowed to sell his land. Only if he still owned
land at death, his age at death was observed; so death was right censored
by sell of all the land. The censoring times are not observed because sell
of land was never recorded. This makes the estimation problem nonstandard.
The age at death is left truncated, because a future tenant had to survive
his testator to inherit the title “tenant” and the land and
to appear in the dataset. Life span distribution and life expectancy are
estimated before and during the outbreak of the Black Death, which started
in 1348.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 131-152
Issue: 2
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: adult mortality, left-truncation, maximum likelihood estimators, Middle Ages, right-censoring, survival analysis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790387
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790387
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:131-152
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANNA ZAJACOVA
Author-X-Name-First: ANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: ZAJACOVA
Author-Name: NOREEN GOLDMAN
Author-X-Name-First: NOREEN
Author-X-Name-Last: GOLDMAN
Author-Name: GERMAN RODRIGUEZ
Author-X-Name-First: GERMAN
Author-X-Name-Last: RODRIGUEZ
Title: Unobserved Heterogeneity Can Confound the Effect of Education on Mortality
Abstract:
Two opposing hypotheses were proposed to explain the life course pattern
in the effect of education on mortality: “cumulative
advantage,” where the education effect becomes stronger with age,
and “age-as-leveler,” where the effect becomes weaker in old
age. Most empirical studies bring evidence for the latter hypothesis, but
the observed convergence of mortality patterns could be an artifact of
selective mortality due to unobserved heterogeneity. A simulation shows
that unobserved heterogeneity can bias the estimated effect of education
downward so that the cohort-average effect of education decreases in old
age regardless of the shape of the underlying subject-specific trajectory.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 153-173
Issue: 2
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: age-as-leveler, cumulative advantage, education, heterogeneity, life course, mortality,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480902790528
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480902790528
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:153-173
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: PETER JAGERS
Author-X-Name-First: PETER
Author-X-Name-Last: JAGERS
Title: Extinction
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 175-176
Issue: 3
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034595
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034595
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:175-176
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: PETER JAGERS
Author-X-Name-First: PETER
Author-X-Name-Last: JAGERS
Author-Name: KARIN HARDING
Author-X-Name-First: KARIN
Author-X-Name-Last: HARDING
Title: Viability of Small Populations Experiencing Recurring Catastrophes
Abstract:
Some small populations are characterized by periods of exponential growth
interrupted by sudden drops. These drops can be linked to the population
size itself, for example, through overexploitation of local resources. The
long-term population extinction risk and the time to extinction for such a
repeatedly collapsing population are estimated from general branching
processes. The latter allows realistic modeling of lifespan distributions
and reproduction patterns, litter (or brood or clutch) sizes as long as
individuals reproduce freely and density effects are absent. As the
population grows, the carrying capacity of the habitat increasingly
matters. This is modeled as a drop after reaching a ceiling. The
probability of recovery is then determined by the population size after
the drop and by the risk of extinction of branching processes. The
reproductive behavior of individuals during the periods free of density
effects determines the intrinsic rate of increase of populations close to
the carrying capacity. The details of life history which produce
demographic stochasticity remain important in systems with density
effects. Finally, the time to extinction of a single system with a high
carrying capacity is compared to that of a population distributed over
several small patches. For systems not allowing migration, survival is
favored by a single large habitat rather than by several small habitats.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 177-198
Issue: 3
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: branching processes, carrying capacity, density dependent catastrophes, survival time,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034694
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034694
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:177-198
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: BENJAMIN CAIRNS
Author-X-Name-First: BENJAMIN
Author-X-Name-Last: CAIRNS
Title: Evaluating the Expected Time to Population Extinction with Semi-Stochastic Models
Abstract:
“Semi-stochastic” or
“piecewise-deterministic” Markov processes generalize
continuous-time Markov chains, allowing for deterministic flow between
Markovian jumps. They have been employed as models for the effect of
environmental catastrophes on biological populations, for the progress of
infectious diseases within and between hosts, and for the management of
fisheries. One application is to solve first-exit time problems, which
include calculations of the expected time or of the expected value from
the present to extinction of processes with state-dependent rewards or
costs. A simple and robust numerical method gives the solution of
first-exit time problems for a wide range of semi-stochastic processes.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 199-220
Issue: 3
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: extinction, first-exit time, piecewise-deterministic, population process, semi-stochastic, state-dependent,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903034843
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903034843
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:199-220
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SERGEY KLOKOV
Author-X-Name-First: SERGEY
Author-X-Name-Last: KLOKOV
Title: Upper Estimates of the Mean Extinction Time of a Population with a Constant Carrying Capacity
Abstract:
In a population of individuals with an identical type and nonoverlapping
generations, the number of offspring has a Poisson distribution depending
on the carrying capacity K and the total population size. Upper estimates
of the mean extinction time Eτ are established and essentially have
the form Eτ ≤CecK with some constants C > 0
and c ≈ 0.707.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 221-230
Issue: 3
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: carrying capacity, extinction, Poisson distribution,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903035071
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903035071
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:221-230
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ROBERT SCHOEN
Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT
Author-X-Name-Last: SCHOEN
Author-Name: CLAUDIA NAU
Author-X-Name-First: CLAUDIA
Author-X-Name-Last: NAU
Title: Intrinsically Dynamic Multistate Models
Abstract:
Multistate life table models, which follow persons through more than one
living state, have found increasing use in demographic analyses.
Multistate stable populations, however, are infrequently used because the
constant rate assumption is quite strong and such populations can take
centuries to approach stability. Dynamic models, that is models where the
rates can change over time, are examined to derive a new solution for the
size and composition of a multistate population in terms of the sequence
of underlying population projection matrices (PPMs). Constraints on the
subordinate eigenvalues and the subordinate eigenvectors of the
time-varying PPMs produce a model population that grows according to the
dominant eigenvalues of each time-specific PPM and has a state composition
that depends only on the most recent PPM. The two living state model is
examined in detail, relationships between the PPM elements and the size
and composition of the model are explored, and two illustrative
applications of the model are presented.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 231-247
Issue: 4
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: atomic matrices, dynamic models, eigenstructure, intrinsic growth, multistate population models, population projection matrices,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251496
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251496
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:231-247
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: R. B. CAMPBELL
Author-X-Name-First: R. B.
Author-X-Name-Last: CAMPBELL
Title: Time Since Common Pedigree Ancestors with Two Progeny per Individual
Abstract:
Constraining individuals to two progeny (versus Poisson distribution)
increases the time since a pedigree (nongenetic) common ancestor, but the
time still increases logarithmically in the population size. This is
confirmed by simulations for discrete generations and rigorously for
expected time with a modification of the Moran model. Selfing increases
the expected time since a common ancestor with both the Poisson progeny
distribution and two progeny per individual. As selfing approaches one,
the time since a common ancestor asymptotically approaches infinity with
two progeny per individual, but only twice the population size with the
Poisson progeny distribution. Regular systems of inbreeding with two
progeny per individual can either increase or decrease the time since a
common ancestor as contrasted with random mating with two progeny per
individual.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 248-265
Issue: 4
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: coalescent, fixation time, pedigree, population genetics, progeny distribution,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251520
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251520
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:248-265
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARC ARTZROUNI
Author-X-Name-First: MARC
Author-X-Name-Last: ARTZROUNI
Title: Transmission Probabilities and Reproduction Numbers for Sexually Transmitted Infections with Variable Infectivity: Application to the Spread of HIV Between Low- and High-Activity Populations
Abstract:
Probabilities of transmission and numbers of secondary cases are given
for an infection which is transmitted sexually by individuals engaged in
multiple partnerships with specified durations and timings. The results
applied to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) hinge on a function
which captures the dependence of the per coital act probability of
transmission on the time since disease onset and on the duration of
infection at death. Reproduction numbers are derived in a heterogeneous
population consisting of low- and high-activity men and women. An
expression for the basic reproduction number R0 of this system sheds light
on the role of concurrency, on the timing of the partnerships, and on
bridging effects. A high-activity group can cause a significant epidemic
outbreak no matter how small the bridging effect, as long as it is not 0.
Only if the bridging effect is eliminated altogether can the growth factor
in the low-activity group be reduced independently of what happens in the
high-activity group. The role of the relationship between client and sex
worker and the role of bridging populations in sub-Saharan Africa are
assessed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 266-287
Issue: 4
Volume: 16
Year: 2009
Keywords: basic reproduction number, heterogeneous populations, HIV, transmission probability,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903251538
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903251538
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:16:y:2009:i:4:p:266-287
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: GILBERTO GONZALEZ-PARRA
Author-X-Name-First: GILBERTO
Author-X-Name-Last: GONZALEZ-PARRA
Author-Name: LUCAS JODAR
Author-X-Name-First: LUCAS
Author-X-Name-Last: JODAR
Author-Name: FRANCISCO SANTONJA
Author-X-Name-First: FRANCISCO
Author-X-Name-Last: SANTONJA
Author-Name: RAFAEL VILLANUEVA
Author-X-Name-First: RAFAEL
Author-X-Name-Last: VILLANUEVA
Title: An Age-Structured Model for Childhood Obesity
Abstract:
An age-structured model for childhood obesity at population level is
fitted to empirical data in order to predict the proportion of
overweighted and obese children in the 6-8 and 9-12 year old classes in
the region of Valencia, Spain.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-11
Issue: 1
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: age-structured population, childhood disease, obesity epidemic,
X-DOI: 10.1080/07481180903467218
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07481180903467218
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:1-11
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: GESHAM MAGOMBEDZE
Author-X-Name-First: GESHAM
Author-X-Name-Last: MAGOMBEDZE
Author-Name: WINSTON GARIRA
Author-X-Name-First: WINSTON
Author-X-Name-Last: GARIRA
Author-Name: EDDIE MWENJE
Author-X-Name-First: EDDIE
Author-X-Name-Last: MWENJE
Title: Modeling the TB/HIV-1 Co-Infection and the Effects of Its Treatment
Abstract:
Modeling the interaction of Tuberculosis (TB) and AIDS (HIV) drugs in the
treatment of the TB/HIV co-infection shows that the treatment of Mtb
(Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and AIDS improves. The administration of HIV
drugs without TB drugs during co-infection favors the treatment of HIV,
but the patient will eventually die of the Mtb opportunistic infection.
Reducing the interaction of TB and HIV drugs and increasing the
performance (efficiency of inhibition) of Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors
(RTIs) in CD4+ T cells improves the treatment of HIV and leads to the
preferential replication of HIV particles in macrophages. The simultaneous
administration of TB and HIV drugs is to be recommended for it prevents
patients from dying of the Mtb opportunistic infection.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 12-64
Issue: 1
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: AIDS, co-infection, highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART), Mycobacterium tuberculosis, TB chemotherapy,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903467241
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903467241
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOEL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: Book Review of Cancer Mortality and Morbidity Patterns in the U.S. Population by Kenneth G. Manton, Igor Akushevich, and Julia Kravchenko
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 65-66
Issue: 1
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480903467258
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480903467258
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:1:p:65-66
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: FABIO MILNER
Author-X-Name-First: FABIO
Author-X-Name-Last: MILNER
Title: Disease Control
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 67-68
Issue: 2
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689403
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689403
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:67-68
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARCOS AMAKU
Author-X-Name-First: MARCOS
Author-X-Name-Last: AMAKU
Author-Name: RICARDO DIAS
Author-X-Name-First: RICARDO
Author-X-Name-Last: DIAS
Author-Name: FERNANDO FERREIRA
Author-X-Name-First: FERNANDO
Author-X-Name-Last: FERREIRA
Title: Dynamics and Control of Stray Dog Populations
Abstract:
The population dynamics of stray dogs is simulated to assess the effects
of sterilization and euthanasia. From simulations representing less than 5
years, sterilization is less efficient than euthanasia to reduce the stray
dog population, considering similar rates, but the total number of
sterilized dogs is less than the total number of euthanized dogs per km2
per year. Over 20 years, both strategies have similar efficiency. Beyond a
certain rate of dog abandonment, both strategies are inefficient.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 69-78
Issue: 2
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: control, dynamics, euthanasia, sterilization, stray dog population,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689452
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689452
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:69-78
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: HENRIQUE GAGLIARDI
Author-X-Name-First: HENRIQUE
Author-X-Name-Last: GAGLIARDI
Author-Name: DOMINGOS ALVES
Author-X-Name-First: DOMINGOS
Author-X-Name-Last: ALVES
Title: Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata
Abstract:
The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions
leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending
on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections
create a small-world effect, a model combining short- and long-distance
probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial
heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of
long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the
world shrank in proportion of their total number.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 79-90
Issue: 2
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: automata cellular, epidemic spreading, SIR, SIRS, small-world, transmission rules,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689486
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689486
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:79-90
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARCOS AMAKU
Author-X-Name-First: MARCOS
Author-X-Name-Last: AMAKU
Author-Name: RAYMUNDO AZEVEDO
Author-X-Name-First: RAYMUNDO
Author-X-Name-Last: AZEVEDO
Title: Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella
Abstract:
The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from
surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections
of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy
between results and official notification data before vaccination era
leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80%
of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total
number of infections compared to notification data.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 91-100
Issue: 2
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: incidence, rubella, seroprevalence,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689502
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689502
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:91-100
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: LUIZ HOTTA
Author-X-Name-First: LUIZ
Author-X-Name-Last: HOTTA
Title: Bayesian Melding Estimation of a Stochastic SEIR Model
Abstract:
One of the main problems in estimating stochastic SEIR models is that the
data are not completely observed. In this case, the estimation is usually
done by least squares or by MCMC. The Bayesian melding method is proposed
to estimate SEIR models and to evaluate the likelihood in the presence of
incomplete data. The method is illustrated by estimating a model for
HIV/TB interaction in the population of a prison.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 101-111
Issue: 2
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: Bayesian inference, Bayesian melding, HIV/TB interaction, SEIR model estimation, stochastic epidemic models, stochastic SEIR model,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898481003689528
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898481003689528
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:101-111
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANNICK LESNE
Author-X-Name-First: ANNICK
Author-X-Name-Last: LESNE
Title: Cell Population Dynamics in Cancer Progression
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 113-114
Issue: 3
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490993
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490993
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:113-114
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MORITZ GERSTUNG
Author-X-Name-First: MORITZ
Author-X-Name-Last: GERSTUNG
Author-Name: NIKO BEERENWINKEL
Author-X-Name-First: NIKO
Author-X-Name-Last: BEERENWINKEL
Title: Waiting Time Models of Cancer Progression
Abstract:
Cancer progression is an evolutionary process driven by mutation and
selection in a population of tumor cells. In multistage models of cancer
progression, each stage is associated with the occurrence of genetic
alterations and their fixation in the population. The accumulation of
mutations is described using conjunctive Bayesian networks, an exponential
family of waiting time models in which the occurrence of mutations is
constrained by a partial temporal order. Two opposing limit cases arise if
mutations either follow a linear order or occur independently. Exact
analytical expressions for the waiting time until a specific number of
mutations have accumulated are derived in these limit cases as well as for
the general conjunctive Bayesian network. In a stochastic population
genetics model that accounts for mutation and selection, waves of clonal
expansions sweep through the population at equidistant intervals. An
approximate analytical expression for the waiting time is compared to the
results obtained with conjunctive Bayesian networks.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 115-135
Issue: 3
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: Bayesian network, cancer, genetic progression, multistage theory, Wright-Fisher process,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490994
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490994
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:115-135
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MICHEL MALO
Author-X-Name-First: MICHEL
Author-X-Name-Last: MALO
Author-Name: AMANDINE CARTIER-MICHAUD
Author-X-Name-First: AMANDINE
Author-X-Name-Last: CARTIER-MICHAUD
Author-Name: ELISABETH FABRE-GUILLEVIN
Author-X-Name-First: ELISABETH
Author-X-Name-Last: FABRE-GUILLEVIN
Author-Name: GUILLAUME HUTZLER
Author-X-Name-First: GUILLAUME
Author-X-Name-Last: HUTZLER
Author-Name: FRANCK DELAPLACE
Author-X-Name-First: FRANCK
Author-X-Name-Last: DELAPLACE
Author-Name: GEORGIA BARLOVATZ-MEIMON
Author-X-Name-First: GEORGIA
Author-X-Name-Last: BARLOVATZ-MEIMON
Author-Name: ANNICK LESNE
Author-X-Name-First: ANNICK
Author-X-Name-Last: LESNE
Title: When a Collective Outcome Triggers a Rare Individual Event: A Mode of Metastatic Process in a Cell Population
Abstract:
A model of early metastatic process is based on the role of the protein
PAI-1, which at high enough extracellular concentration promotes the
transition of cancer cells to a state prone to migration. This transition
is described at the single cell level as a bi-stable switch associated
with a subcritical bifurcation. In a multilevel reaction-diffusion
scenario, the micro-environment of the tumor is modified by the
proliferating cell population so as to push the concentration of PAI-1
above the bifurcation threshold. The formulation in terms of partial
differential equations fails to capture spatio-temporal heterogeneity.
Cellular-automata and agent-based simulations of cell populations support
the hypothesis that a randomly localized accumulation of PAI-1 can arise
and trigger the escape of a few isolated cells. Far away from the primary
tumor, these cells experience a reverse transition back to a proliferative
state and could generate a secondary tumor. The suggested role of PAI-1 in
controlling this metastatic cycle is candidate to explain its role in the
progression of cancer.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 136-165
Issue: 3
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: agent-based simulation, cell population, metastastic escape, multilevel model, multistability, reaction-diffusion,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.490996
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.490996
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:136-165
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: STEFAN HOEHME
Author-X-Name-First: STEFAN
Author-X-Name-Last: HOEHME
Author-Name: DIRK DRASDO
Author-X-Name-First: DIRK
Author-X-Name-Last: DRASDO
Title: Biomechanical and Nutrient Controls in the Growth of Mammalian Cell Populations
Abstract:
Growth kinetics and morphologies of growing mammalian cell populations
are part of the growth dynamics of tumors. A biophysical agent-based
simulation model describes a biological cell by a homogeneous elastic
adhesive object able to migrate, grow and divide, and die. A comparison of
simulation results with experimental data shows that the growth kinetics
of growing multicellular spheroids (MCS) over a wide range of nutrient
concentrations is explained by a bio-mechanical form of contact inhibition
between cells. This inhibition mechanism explains the growth kinetics of
the tumor diameter and the cell population size, the size of the necrotic
core, the median cell volume, which decreases when the tumor diameter
increases, and the spatial distribution of cell volumes in the tumor. The
same model is used to predict how cell populations survive in low nutrient
concentrations. Spatial patterns are different for changes of the cell
phenotype by regulation or mutation. The cells appearing in the
simulations decrease cell-cell adhesion, display chemotaxis movement,
increase micro-motility and decrease cell cycle time. Each of these have
been observed in invasive cancers.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 166-187
Issue: 3
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: agent-based simulation, biochemical constraints, growth dynamics, johnson-kendall-roberts theory, nutrient control, tumor,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.491032
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.491032
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:166-187
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: PHU NGUYEN-VAN
Author-X-Name-First: PHU
Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN-VAN
Title: Nonlinearity and Heterogeneity in Sustainable Populations
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 189-190
Issue: 4
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514850
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514850
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:189-190
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NATALI HRITONENKO
Author-X-Name-First: NATALI
Author-X-Name-Last: HRITONENKO
Author-Name: YURI YATSENKO
Author-X-Name-First: YURI
Author-X-Name-Last: YATSENKO
Title: Age-Structured PDEs in Economics, Ecology, and Demography: Optimal Control and Sustainability
Abstract:
Optimal control of partial differential equations arises in population
ecology, economics, and demography. The consistency of mathematical
treatment is demonstrated for the Lotka-McKendrick model and its nonlinear
modifications of increasing complexity. The obtained qualitative optimal
dynamics show that the models have either the bang-bang structure of
optimal controls or follow balanced growth dynamics.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 191-214
Issue: 4
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: age-structured populations, harvesting, medical capital investment, partial differential equations, size-structured populations, vintage capital models,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514851
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514851
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:191-214
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: CUONG LE VAN
Author-X-Name-First: CUONG
Author-X-Name-Last: LE VAN
Author-Name: TU-ANH NGUYEN
Author-X-Name-First: TU-ANH
Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN
Author-Name: MANH-HUNG NGUYEN
Author-X-Name-First: MANH-HUNG
Author-X-Name-Last: NGUYEN
Author-Name: THAI LUONG
Author-X-Name-First: THAI
Author-X-Name-Last: LUONG
Title: New Technology, Human Capital, and Growth in a Developing Country
Abstract:
In a developing country with three sectors—consumption goods, new
technology, and education—the productivity of the consumption goods
depends on new technology and skilled labor used to produce this new
technology. In the first stage of economic growth, the country
concentrates on the production of consumption goods; in the second, the
country must import both physical capital and new technology capital to
produce consumption goods and new technology; in the third, the country
must import capital and invest in the training and education of highly
skilled labor.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 215-241
Issue: 4
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: developing country, human capital, new technology capital, optimal growth model,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514852
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514852
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:215-241
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARC ARTZROUNI
Author-X-Name-First: MARC
Author-X-Name-Last: ARTZROUNI
Author-Name: EVA DEUCHERT
Author-X-Name-First: EVA
Author-X-Name-Last: DEUCHERT
Title: Do Men and Women Have the Same Average Number of Lifetime Partners?
Abstract:
It is generally thought that for sake of consistency men and women must
have the same average number of lifetime partners. However, this is not
the case in general. When men have younger partners, women enter sexual
relationships more quickly than men and have a higher number of lifetime
partners. A male dominant model applied to UK data on the male rate of
entry into a sexual relationship and the male partnership formation
function shows that in a stationary population (zero growth rate) women
have 9.1% more partners than men. In a stable population with an intrinsic
growth rate of -2% and a larger but still plausible difference between the
ages of partners, women have 24.6% more partners than men. Given that in
sex surveys men report more partners than women, the resulting bias in
estimated numbers of partners may therefore be larger than previously
thought.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 242-256
Issue: 4
Volume: 17
Year: 2010
Keywords: lifetime partners, male dominant model, stable population, stationary population, United Kingdom,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2010.514853
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2010.514853
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:17:y:2010:i:4:p:242-256
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SCOTT CARSON
Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT
Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON
Title: Demographic, Residential, and Socioeconomic Effects on the Distribution of the Statures of Whites in the Nineteenth-Century U.S.
Abstract:
Nineteenth-century U.S. state prison records contain information on
European-American stature. The most commonly mentioned reasons for stature
variation were diets, disease, and work effort. The statures of whites
were positively associated with direct sunlight. Stature and insolation
were associated with occupations, and white workers who spent more time
outdoors produced more vitamin D and grew taller. The statures of whites
also decreased throughout the nineteenth century, and this decrease is
observed across the whole stature distribution.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-17
Issue: 1
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: nineteenth-century U.S. statures of whites, quantile regression, solar radiation, vitamin D,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540147
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540147
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MARK BEBBINGTON
Author-X-Name-First: MARK
Author-X-Name-Last: BEBBINGTON
Author-Name: CHIN-DIEW LAI
Author-X-Name-First: CHIN-DIEW
Author-X-Name-Last: LAI
Author-Name: RIcARDAS ZITIKIS
Author-X-Name-First: RIcARDAS
Author-X-Name-Last: ZITIKIS
Title: Modelling Deceleration in Senescent Mortality
Abstract:
Mortality deceleration is the observed but yet to be understood
phenomenon that the increase in the late-life death rate slows down after
a certain species-related advanced age. Various definitions of onsets of
mortality deceleration are examined. A new distribution based on the
Strehler-Mildvan theory of aging takes on the required shapes. The
application is done on mortality data from the 1892 cohort of Swedish
women and on Mediterranean fruit flies.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 18-37
Issue: 1
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: biodemography, Gompertz law, mortality deceleration, mortality rate, onset of late-life mortality, senescent mortality,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540173
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540173
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:18-37
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOEL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: A Review of: “Optimal Control of Age-Structured Populations in Economy, Demography, and the Environment edited by R. Boucekkine, N. Hritonenko, and Y. Yatsenko.”
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 38-42
Issue: 1
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.540176
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.540176
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:38-42
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOEL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOEL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: A Review of: “Les Chemins de la mobilite: Migrants de Tunisie et marche du travail parisien depuis 1956. [Paths of Mobility: Migrants out of Tunisia and the Parisian Labor Market Since 1956] by A.-S. Bruno.”
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 43-46
Issue: 1
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.553175
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.553175
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:43-46
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JANE HEFFERNAN
Author-X-Name-First: JANE
Author-X-Name-Last: HEFFERNAN
Title: Mathematical Immunology of Infectious Diseases
Abstract:
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 47-54
Issue: 2
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564559
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564559
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:47-54
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ASHRAFI NIGER
Author-X-Name-First: ASHRAFI
Author-X-Name-Last: NIGER
Author-Name: ABBA GUMEL
Author-X-Name-First: ABBA
Author-X-Name-Last: GUMEL
Title: Immune Response and Imperfect Vaccine in Malaria Dynamics
Abstract:
The immune response to malaria and the effects of an imperfect vaccine
for this disease are modelled incorporating an n stage parasite life
cycle, immune cells, and antibodies. A globally asymptotically stable
parasite-free equilibrium occurs when the associated reproduction number
is less than unity. An imperfect malaria vaccine that reduces the number
of merozoites released per bursting infected red blood cell (IRBC) and
that boosts immune response can reduce the concentration of IRBCs in vivo.
Numerical simulations show that a vaccine efficacy of at least 87% is
necessary to eliminate IRBC in vivo. The concentration of IRBCs varies
with the capacity of the vaccine to modify the total number of merozoites
released per bursting IRBC.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 55-86
Issue: 2
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: immune response, malaria, ordinary differential equations, vaccine,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564560
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564560
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: STANCA CIUPE
Author-X-Name-First: STANCA
Author-X-Name-Last: CIUPE
Author-Name: ANNE CATLLA
Author-X-Name-First: ANNE
Author-X-Name-Last: CATLLA
Author-Name: JONATHAN FORDE
Author-X-Name-First: JONATHAN
Author-X-Name-Last: FORDE
Author-Name: DAVID SCHAEFFER
Author-X-Name-First: DAVID
Author-X-Name-Last: SCHAEFFER
Title: Dynamics of Hepatitis B Virus Infection: What Causes Viral Clearance?
Abstract:
The virus Hepatitis B infects liver cells, leading to either acute or
chronic liver disease. Immune responses involve both curing and killing of
cells. Stability analyses show that viral clearance depends only on the
strength of the combined killing and curing, independent of the
characteristics of the cured cells.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 87-105
Issue: 2
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: Hepatitis B virus, immune response, stability analysis, viral dynamics,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564563
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564563
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:87-105
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SEYED MOGHADAS
Author-X-Name-First: SEYED
Author-X-Name-Last: MOGHADAS
Title: Emergence of Resistance in Influenza With Compensatory Mutations
Abstract:
Compensatory mutations are evolutionary responses of influenza viruses
resulting in the generation of escape mutants from immune recognition or
in the emergence of highly transmissible drug resistant viruses. Model
simulations show that: (i) resistance is unlikely to develop without
compensation for the large fitness cost associated with the initial rise
of resistant mutants; and (ii) in the absence of virus-specific immune
memory, the beginning of the treatment and the efficacy of drugs in
suppressing viral replication are critical measures in the invasion of
compensated mutants. However, pre-existing immune responses can prevent
the outgrowth of resistance, regardless of treatment regimes. The presence
of immune memory may be a key factor in preventing lethal consequences of
infection.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 106-121
Issue: 2
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: adaptive immunity, compensatory mutations, drug resistance, influenza, viral dynamics,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564565
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564565
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:106-121
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Author-Name: BERNHARD KONRAD
Author-X-Name-First: BERNHARD
Author-X-Name-Last: KONRAD
Author-Name: NAVEEN VAIDYA
Author-X-Name-First: NAVEEN
Author-X-Name-Last: VAIDYA
Author-Name: ROBERT SMITH?
Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT
Author-X-Name-Last: SMITH?
Title: Modelling Mutation to a Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte HIV Vaccine
Abstract:
Resistance to a postinfection HIV vaccine that stimulates cytotoxic
T-lymphocytes (CTLs) depends on the relationship between the vaccine
strength, the fitness cost of the mutant strain, and the rate of mutant
escape. If the vaccine is strong enough, both strains of the virus should
be controlled by administering the vaccine sufficiently often. However, if
escape mutation to the vaccine occurs, then either the wild type or the
mutant can outcompete the other strain. Imperfect adherence may result in
the persistence of the mutant, while fluctuations in the vaccination
time—even if no vaccines are missed—may result in the mutant
outcompeting the wild type.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 122-149
Issue: 2
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: adherence, cytotoxic T-lymphocytes, escape mutation, fitness cost, impulsive differential equations, vaccination,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.564566
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.564566
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:122-149
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Author-Name: RENAN GOETZ
Author-X-Name-First: RENAN
Author-X-Name-Last: GOETZ
Author-Name: ANGELS XABADIA
Author-X-Name-First: ANGELS
Author-X-Name-Last: XABADIA
Author-Name: ELENA CALVO
Author-X-Name-First: ELENA
Author-X-Name-Last: CALVO
Title: Optimal Forest Management in the Presence of Intraspecific Competition
Abstract:
The Escalator Boxcar Train method is used to solve the distributed
optimal control problems of forest management numerically. It takes into
account intraspecific competition for scarce resources such as light,
space, and nutrients during reproduction, growth, and mortality. It
provides an alternative to gradient projection methods and Markov
processes. It is implemented with standard software. The application is on
the optimal forest management regime in the presence of intraspecific
competition.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 151-171
Issue: 3
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: distributed optimal control, Escalator Boxcar Train, forest management, intraspecific competition, numerical methods,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589761
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.589761
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:151-171
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ORLA DEMPSEY
Author-X-Name-First: ORLA
Author-X-Name-Last: DEMPSEY
Author-Name: CATHERINE COMISKEY
Author-X-Name-First: CATHERINE
Author-X-Name-Last: COMISKEY
Title: Estimating the Incidence of Hidden, Untreated Opiate Use
Abstract:
Illegal drug use is a hidden phenomenon, making it extremely difficult to
obtain accurate estimates of untreated use. Yet it is this very estimate
of incidence that is required by policy makers and service providers who
are responsible for allocating increasingly scarce resources in times of
worldwide recession. Using Irish data on more than 6,000 cases of clients
presenting for first treatment, a Gamma incubation period distribution
describing progression to first opiate treatment is fitted. An analytical
solution of the back calculation method and a linear Volterra integral
equation are used to project back and estimate the hidden, untreated
population of opiate users.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 172-188
Issue: 3
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: back calculation, gamma, HIV, incidence, opiates, substance misuse,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589764
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.589764
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:3:p:172-188
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JEAN TEWA
Author-X-Name-First: JEAN
Author-X-Name-Last: TEWA
Author-Name: SAMUEL BOWONG
Author-X-Name-First: SAMUEL
Author-X-Name-Last: BOWONG
Author-Name: BOULCHARD MEWOLI
Author-X-Name-First: BOULCHARD
Author-X-Name-Last: MEWOLI
Author-Name: JURGEN KURTHS
Author-X-Name-First: JURGEN
Author-X-Name-Last: KURTHS
Title: Two-Patch Transmission of Tuberculosis
Abstract:
For a two-patch transmission of tuberculosis (TB), the disease-free
equilibrium and the basic reproduction rate R0 are computed. The
disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic
reproduction rate is less than one. The model can have one or more endemic
equilibria. The increased progression rate from latent to active TB in one
population may play a significant role in the rising prevalence of TB in
the other population. The increased migration from the first to the second
population increases the prevalence level of TB in the second population
and decreases the TB prevalence in the first population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 189-205
Issue: 3
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Keywords: epidemiology, Lyapunov functions, patches, stability, tuberculosis,
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.596757
File-URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08898480.2011.596757
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANATOLY I. YASHIN
Author-X-Name-First: ANATOLY I.
Author-X-Name-Last: YASHIN
Author-Name: IGOR AKUSHEVICH
Author-X-Name-First: IGOR
Author-X-Name-Last: AKUSHEVICH
Author-Name: KONSTANTIN G. ARBEEV
Author-X-Name-First: KONSTANTIN G.
Author-X-Name-Last: ARBEEV
Author-Name: ALEXANDER KULMINSKI
Author-X-Name-First: ALEXANDER
Author-X-Name-Last: KULMINSKI
Author-Name: SVETLANA UKRAINTSEVA
Author-X-Name-First: SVETLANA
Author-X-Name-Last: UKRAINTSEVA
Title: Joint Analysis of Health Histories, Physiological State, and Survival
Abstract:
Data on individual health histories, age trajectories of physiological or
biological variables, and mortality allow for the study of the joint
evolution of health and physiological states and their effects on
mortality. Individual health and physiological trajectories are described
using a stochastic process with two mutually-dependent continuous and
jumping components. The parameters of this process and mortality rate are
identified from the data in which the continuous component is measured in
discrete times, and transitions of jumping process are observed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 207-233
Issue: 4
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614486
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614486
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:207-233
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: QUINCY THOMAS STEWART
Author-X-Name-First: QUINCY THOMAS
Author-X-Name-Last: STEWART
Title: The Cause-Deleted Index: Estimating Cause of Death Contributions to Mortality
Abstract:
Causes underlying mortality disparities are often determined by causal
decomposition. This method is based on the decomposition of differences in
mortality or life expectancy into parameters representing the contribution
of underlying causes. It quantifies disparities as differences in
mortality rates and does not account for the fact that many
underprivileged groups are more likely to die from nearly all causes.
Results are driven by the frequency of cause of death. Alternatively, the
cause deleted index quantifies the role of underlying causes in mortality
disparities as the change in the relative risk of dying that is related to
deleting a specific cause. The consistency between the methods in
estimating cause of death contributions is analyzed using 2000 U.S.
mortality data and simulated mortality profiles. The two methods often
produce divergent results because causal decomposition relies on the
prevalence of causes of death.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 234-257
Issue: 4
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614496
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614496
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:234-257
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: A Review of Biology's First Law. The Tendency for Diversity and Complexity to Increase in Evolutionary Systems by Daniel W. McShea and Robert N. Brandon
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 258-260
Issue: 4
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.614501
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.614501
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:258-260
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: VLADIMIR KOSTOV
Author-X-Name-First: VLADIMIR
Author-X-Name-Last: KOSTOV
Title: Book Review Essay: A Remarkable Contribution to the History of the Don Cossacks
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 261-263
Issue: 4
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589765
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.589765
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: VLADIMIR KOSTOV
Author-X-Name-First: VLADIMIR
Author-X-Name-Last: KOSTOV
Title: Book Review Essay: The Fabulous Fate of the Don Cossacks
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 264-265
Issue: 4
Volume: 18
Year: 2011
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2011.589768
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2011.589768
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:18:y:2011:i:4:p:264-265
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE
Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF
Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE
Title: Epidemics From the Economic Theory Viewpoint
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-3
Issue: 1
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640857
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640857
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Author-Name: STEFANO BOSI
Author-X-Name-First: STEFANO
Author-X-Name-Last: BOSI
Author-Name: THOMAS SEEGMULLER
Author-X-Name-First: THOMAS
Author-X-Name-Last: SEEGMULLER
Title: Mortality Differential and Growth: What do we Learn From the Barro-Becker Model?
Abstract:
The model of endogenous fertility by Barro and Becker (1989) is augmented
by taking into account the heterogeneity of households in terms of capital
endowments, mortality, and costs per surviving child. There exists a
unique balanced growth path where the population growth rates of all
dynasties are equal. An increase in mortality raises the time cost per
surviving child, and enhances economic growth, while reducing parity and
demographic growth. The mechanism rests on the quantity-quality trade-off
of having children, summarized by the adjustment of the average rearing
cost of a surviving child.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 27-50
Issue: 1
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640866
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640866
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Author-Name: JEAN-PIERRE LAFFARGUE
Author-X-Name-First: JEAN-PIERRE
Author-X-Name-Last: LAFFARGUE
Title: Epidemics and Fertility in a Malthusian Economy
Abstract:
A Malthusian model clarifies the effects of an epidemic on fertility and
on the age structure. An HIV/AIDS epidemic leads to a decrease in
fertility, a result consistent with the case of sub-Saharan Africa but
sensitive to national conditions. The fall of fertility might be limited
to one generation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 4-26
Issue: 1
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640863
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: DOUGLAS GOLLIN
Author-X-Name-First: DOUGLAS
Author-X-Name-Last: GOLLIN
Author-Name: CHRISTIAN ZIMMERMANN
Author-X-Name-First: CHRISTIAN
Author-X-Name-Last: ZIMMERMANN
Title: Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease
Abstract:
How will global climate change affect the prevalence of tropical
diseases? In general, warmer temperatures will expand the areas in which
these diseases are endemic. However, if households can take actions to
protect themselves from disease—such as purchasing bednets or
insecticidal sprays—then economic factors may greatly mitigate the
effects of climate change. These actions are costly, however, and
particularly in poor countries, many households face borrowing
constraints. A model of disease transmission combining the household's
objectives and constraints shows that a temperature increase of 3°C
will induce modest changes in disease prevalence and output. These effects
can be mitigated by improvements in the efficacy of disease prevention.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 51-62
Issue: 1
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640868
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.640868
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MICHAEL NEUGART
Author-X-Name-First: MICHAEL
Author-X-Name-Last: NEUGART
Title: Female Employment and Divorce: Taking Into Account a Social Multiplier
Abstract:
A model of interactions of marriage and labor markets, taking into
account a feedback process from aggregate divorce rates on individuals'
decisions, explains why small changes in men's attitudes towards sharing
the breadwinner role with their wives may change female labor force
participation rates and divorce rates considerably.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 63-72
Issue: 2
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666941
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666941
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:63-72
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MATTEO CERVELLATI
Author-X-Name-First: MATTEO
Author-X-Name-Last: CERVELLATI
Author-Name: UWE SUNDE
Author-X-Name-First: UWE
Author-X-Name-Last: SUNDE
Author-Name: SIMONA VALMORI
Author-X-Name-First: SIMONA
Author-X-Name-Last: VALMORI
Title: The Distribution of Infectious Diseases and Extrinsic Mortality Across Countries
Abstract:
Analysis of the spatial distribution and geographical determinants of
human infectious agents across countries suggests that the total number of
multi-host vector-transmitted diseases provides a useful measure of the
mortality environment. Pathogens of this type are difficult to eradicate
because they multiply in both humans and non-human hosts and are bound to
specific climatological conditions. The count index of multi-host
vector-transmitted diseases that are endemic in a country is a good proxy
of life expectancy and of the likelihood of epidemics. This count is
useful for cross-country empirical comparisons because it is not driven by
demographic and economic conditions.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-93
Issue: 2
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666942
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666942
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:73-93
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: THOMAS BAUDIN
Author-X-Name-First: THOMAS
Author-X-Name-Last: BAUDIN
Title: The Optimal Trade-Off Between Quality and Quantity with Unknown Number of Survivors
Abstract:
In a model of endogenous fertility where individuals know the probability
of child survival but not the final number of survivors, parents do not
always formulate a precautionary demand for children. For some utility
functions, parents have fewer children than what they would have in a
situation in which the number of survivors is known earlier. The
properties of the optimal economic policy depend on the degree to which
the social welfare function takes ignorance into account. If social
welfare is evaluated after parents know how many children survived, the
parental response to uncertainty is socially inefficient. Individual
decisions then should be corrected through tax or transfer on both births
and education. This property helps determine the optimal public response
to mortality crisis in the presence of educational externalities.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 94-113
Issue: 2
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.666943
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.666943
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:94-113
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Author-Name: ABDERRAHMAN IGGIDR
Author-X-Name-First: ABDERRAHMAN
Author-X-Name-Last: IGGIDR
Author-Name: GAUTHIER SALLET
Author-X-Name-First: GAUTHIER
Author-X-Name-Last: SALLET
Author-Name: BERGE TSANOU
Author-X-Name-First: BERGE
Author-X-Name-Last: TSANOU
Title: Global Stability Analysis of a Metapopulation SIS Epidemic Model
Abstract:
The conjecture of Arino and van den Driessche (2003) that a SIS type
model in a mover-stayer epidemic model is globally asymptotically stable
is confirmed analytically. If the basic reproduction number
, then the
disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. If
, then there
exists a unique endemic equilibrium that is globally asymptotically stable
on the nonnegative orthant minus the stable manifold of the disease-free
equilibrium.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 115-129
Issue: 3
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693844
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693844
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:115-129
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SHANKAR DIHIDAR
Author-X-Name-First: SHANKAR
Author-X-Name-Last: DIHIDAR
Title: Distribution of Closed Birth Intervals in a Heterogeneous Population
Abstract:
The probability distribution of parity-specific closed birth intervals in
a heterogeneous population of women is obtained from Biswas' (1980)
concept of gradually decreasing fecundabilities. The distribution of
parity-specific last closed birth intervals and its moments of various
orders are derived for a heterogeneous female population. Simulations are
used to compare with models for a homogeneous female population with
constant fecundability. The consideration of heterogeneity allows a better
fit for empirical closed birth intervals.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 130-146
Issue: 3
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693847
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693847
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:130-146
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SCOTT ALAN CARSON
Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT ALAN
Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON
Title: Demographic, Residential, and Socioeconomic Effects on the Distribution of Nineteenth-Century White Body Mass Index Values
Abstract:
Little research exists on the body mass index (BMI) values of
nineteenth-century Americans of European descent. Examination of a new
body mass index data set and robust statistical analysis yields the
following conclusion: between 1860 and 1880, BMIs decreased across the
distribution; however, after 1880, BMIs in the highest quantiles
increased, while those in lower BMI quantiles continued to decrease. Late
nineteenth- and early twentieth-century white BMIs increased at older ages
in higher quantiles and decreased in lower quantiles, indicating
significant net biological disparity by age. During industrialization,
white BMIs were lower in Kentucky, Missouri, and urban Philadelphia.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 147-157
Issue: 3
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.693849
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.693849
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:147-157
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ALAN P. MATTHEWS
Author-X-Name-First: ALAN P.
Author-X-Name-Last: MATTHEWS
Title: A Comment on Schoen's (1981) Harmonic Mean Marriage Model
Abstract:
Schoen (1981) proposes a two-sex marriage function based on the harmonic
mean of the numbers of men and women at given ages. This is a comment on
the argument provided by Schoen, which shows that it does not in fact lead
to a marriage function based on the harmonic mean but on the product of
the numbers of men and women at given ages. This does not mean that the
harmonic mean is not a valid basis for a marriage function, but only that
the argument used by Schoen is not a demonstration of its validity.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 158-162
Issue: 3
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.708310
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.708310
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:158-162
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: Editorial Note
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 163-163
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718930
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718930
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:163-163
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: OLLIVIER HYRIEN
Author-X-Name-First: OLLIVIER
Author-X-Name-Last: HYRIEN
Author-Name: NIKOLAY M. YANEV
Author-X-Name-First: NIKOLAY M.
Author-X-Name-Last: YANEV
Title: Asymptotic Behavior of Cell Populations Described by Two-Type Reducible Age-Dependent Branching Processes With Non-Homogeneous Immigration
Abstract:
Stem and precursor cells play a critical role in tissue development,
maintenance, and repair throughout the life. Often, experimental
limitations prevent direct observation of the stem cell compartment,
thereby posing substantial challenges to the analysis of such cellular
systems. Two-type age-dependent branching processes with immigration are
proposed to model populations of progenitor cells and their differentiated
progenies. Immigration of cells into the pool of progenitor cells is
formulated as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The asymptotic behavior
of the process is governed by the largest of two Malthusian parameters
associated with embedded Bellman-Harris processes. Asymptotic
approximations to the expectations of the total cell counts are improved
by Markov compensators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 164-176
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718934
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718934
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:164-176
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SHIXIA MA
Author-X-Name-First: SHIXIA
Author-X-Name-Last: MA
Author-Name: MANUEL MOLINA
Author-X-Name-First: MANUEL
Author-X-Name-Last: MOLINA
Author-Name: YONGSHENG XING
Author-X-Name-First: YONGSHENG
Author-X-Name-Last: XING
Title: Two-Sex Branching Populations With Progenitor Couples in a Random Environment
Abstract:
In a two-sex branching model, progenitor couples are affected by random
factors. The probability and the time to extinction are expressed and
simulated.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 177-187
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718937
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718937
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:177-187
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: IBRAHIM RAHIMOV
Author-X-Name-First: IBRAHIM
Author-X-Name-Last: RAHIMOV
Author-Name: GEORGE P. YANEV
Author-X-Name-First: GEORGE P.
Author-X-Name-Last: YANEV
Title: Variance Estimators in Critical Branching Processes With Non-Homogeneous Immigration
Abstract:
The asymptotic normality of conditional least squares estimators for the
offspring variance in critical branching processes with nonhomogeneous
immigration is established, under moment assumptions on both reproduction
and immigration. The proofs use martingale techniques and weak convergence
results in Skorokhod spaces.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 188-199
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718941
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718941
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:188-199
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: CRISTIAN TOMASETTI
Author-X-Name-First: CRISTIAN
Author-X-Name-Last: TOMASETTI
Title: Stochastic Modelling of Multiple Random Genetic Mutations Under the Cancer Stem Cell Hypothesis
Abstract:
The probability distribution for the size of each of the various cancer
cell subpopulations created by random genetic mutations is expressed in
the case of non-exponential growth of cancer and in the case of a
heterogeneous tumor cell population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 200-213
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.725379
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.725379
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:200-213
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Title: Book Review of The Children of Eve: Population and Well-being in History by L. P. Cain and D. G. Paterson
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 214-216
Issue: 4
Volume: 19
Year: 2012
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.718942
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2012.718942
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:4:p:214-216
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SUZANNE S. SINDI
Author-X-Name-First: SUZANNE S.
Author-X-Name-Last: SINDI
Author-Name: PETER OLOFSSON
Author-X-Name-First: PETER
Author-X-Name-Last: OLOFSSON
Title: A Discrete-Time Branching Process Model of Yeast Prion Curing Curves*
Abstract:
The infectious agent of many neurodegenerative disorders is thought to be
aggregates of prion protein, which are transmitted between cells. Recent
work in yeast supports this hypothesis but also suggests that only
aggregates below a critical size are transmitted efficiently. The total
number of transmissible aggregates in a typical cell is a key determinant
of strain infectivity. In a discrete-time branching process model of a
yeast colony with prions, prion aggregates increase in size according to a
Poisson process and only aggregates below a threshold size are transmitted
during cell division. The total number of cells with aggregates in a
growing population of yeast is expressed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-13
Issue: 1
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748566
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748566
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ELENA B. YAROVAYA
Author-X-Name-First: ELENA B.
Author-X-Name-Last: YAROVAYA
Title: Branching Random Walks With Several Sources-super-*
Abstract:
A continuous-time branching random walk on multidimensional lattices with
a finite number of branching sources of three types leads to explicit
conditions for the exponential growth of the total number of particles.
These conditions are expressed in terms of the spectral characteristics of
the operator describing the mean number of particles both at an arbitrary
point and on the entire lattice.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 14-26
Issue: 1
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748571
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748571
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:14-26
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANUJ MUBAYI
Author-X-Name-First: ANUJ
Author-X-Name-Last: MUBAYI
Author-Name: PRISCILLA E. GREENWOOD
Author-X-Name-First: PRISCILLA E.
Author-X-Name-Last: GREENWOOD
Title: Contextual Interventions for Controlling Alcohol Drinking
Abstract:
The dynamics of an alcohol drinking population are subject to
environment-specific control programs. The stochastic model is developed
that includes populations of light, moderate, and heavy drinkers,
interacting in two contrasting risk-level drinking environments. For
colleges with serious drinking problems, the times to disappearance of
serious drinkers show that environment-dependent control programs have
lasting efficacy when they are implemented according to the risk level of
the environments and not by simply focusing on heavy drinking.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 27-53
Issue: 1
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.748588
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.748588
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:1:p:27-53
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MIRANDA I. TEBOH-EWUNGKEM
Author-X-Name-First: MIRANDA I.
Author-X-Name-Last: TEBOH-EWUNGKEM
Title: Special Issue: Malaria Models
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 55-56
Issue: 2
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777234
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777234
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:55-56
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MIRANDA I. TEBOH-EWUNGKEM
Author-X-Name-First: MIRANDA I.
Author-X-Name-Last: TEBOH-EWUNGKEM
Author-Name: GIDEON A. NGWA
Author-X-Name-First: GIDEON A.
Author-X-Name-Last: NGWA
Author-Name: CALISTUS N. NGONGHALA
Author-X-Name-First: CALISTUS N.
Author-X-Name-Last: NGONGHALA
Title: Models and Proposals for Malaria: A Review
Abstract:
Mathematical models to study the dynamics of malaria continue
to be developed and upgraded on the parasite component, which is the
causative agent for malaria; on the human component that serves as a
reservoir of infection for the blood feeding female mosquitoes; on the
disease transmitting vector, the component mostly responsible for the
movement of the parasite agent from one human to another; or on the life
cycle of the malaria parasite as a pathogen both within the human and
vector populations. The consideration of so-far neglected features can be
beneficial for the control of malaria.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 57-81
Issue: 2
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777237
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777237
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:57-81
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: FOLASHADE B. AGUSTO
Author-X-Name-First: FOLASHADE B.
Author-X-Name-Last: AGUSTO
Author-Name: JEAN M. TCHUENCHE
Author-X-Name-First: JEAN M.
Author-X-Name-Last: TCHUENCHE
Title: Control Strategies for the Spread of Malaria in Humans With Variable Attractiveness
Abstract:
The transmission dynamics of malaria in humans with variable
attractiveness is modeled with the possibility of prophylactic measures
such as personal protection and treatment. At the disease-free equilibria,
the basic reproduction number and a measure for effective disease control
are computed. Simulations show that a 10% increase in personal protection
leads to a decrease in secondary transmission, and that a 10% increase in
the treatment rate leads to a 7% reduction in secondary transmission.
Personal protection and effective treatment should be applied together.
Personal protection fails with increasing degree of attractiveness.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 82-100
Issue: 2
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777239
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777239
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:82-100
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ROUMEN ANGUELOV
Author-X-Name-First: ROUMEN
Author-X-Name-Last: ANGUELOV
Author-Name: YVES DUMONT
Author-X-Name-First: YVES
Author-X-Name-Last: DUMONT
Author-Name: JEAN LUBUMA
Author-X-Name-First: JEAN
Author-X-Name-Last: LUBUMA
Author-Name: EUNICE MUREITHI
Author-X-Name-First: EUNICE
Author-X-Name-Last: MUREITHI
Title: Stability Analysis and Dynamics Preserving Nonstandard Finite Difference Schemes for a Malaria Model
Abstract:
When both human and mosquito populations vary, forward
bifurcation occurs if the basic reproduction number R
0 is less than one in the absence of disease-induced
death. When the disease-induced death rate is large enough,
R 0 = 1 is a
subcritical backward bifurcation point. The domain for the study of the
dynamics is reduced to a compact and feasible region, where the system
admits a specific algebraic decomposition into infective and non-infected
humans and mosquitoes. Stability results are extended and the possibility
of backward bifurcation is clarified. A dynamically consistent nonstandard
finite difference scheme is designed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 101-122
Issue: 2
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.777240
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.777240
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:101-122
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: KAJAL DIHIDAR
Author-X-Name-First: KAJAL
Author-X-Name-Last: DIHIDAR
Author-Name: JOYDEEP CHOWDHURY
Author-X-Name-First: JOYDEEP
Author-X-Name-Last: CHOWDHURY
Title: Enhancing a Randomized Response Model to Estimate Population Means to Sensitive Questions
Abstract:
The population means of variables such as expenditure on
alcohol, abortion, amount of dowry are estimated on modifying Gjestvang
and Singh (2009) randomized response model. Instead of simple random
sampling with replacement scheme, the respondents are allowed to be chosen
by any varying probability sampling scheme, which in particular, also
includes simple random sampling with replacement scheme. Whatever the
sampling design, the modified estimators perform better than the usual
estimator.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-136
Issue: 3
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816216
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816216
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:123-136
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: DALKHAT M. EDIEV
Author-X-Name-First: DALKHAT M.
Author-X-Name-Last: EDIEV
Title: Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias, the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression
Abstract:
Formal derivations and empirical evidence, in the framework
of Fries-Kannisto's hypothesis, show that the indicators of mortality
compression based on age-at-death distribution, left-censored at a fixed
old age, may be subject to a bias toward showing mortality decompression
in the case of a mortality decline. The previously reported increasing
variance in ages at death above fixed old ages in developed countries was
mainly the effect of a mortality shift, not decompression. When adjusted
for this bias, the indicators of variance in ages at death show a
compression of period mortality.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 137-154
Issue: 3
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816218
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816218
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:137-154
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MATTHIJS KOOT
Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIJS
Author-X-Name-Last: KOOT
Author-Name: MICHEL MANDJES
Author-X-Name-First: MICHEL
Author-X-Name-Last: MANDJES
Author-Name: GUIDO VAN 'T NOORDENDE
Author-X-Name-First: GUIDO
Author-X-Name-Last: VAN 'T NOORDENDE
Author-Name: CEES DE LAAT
Author-X-Name-First: CEES
Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAAT
Title: A Probabilistic Perspective on Re-Identifiability
Abstract:
A quasi-identifier is a set of attributes that can be used to
re-identify entries in anonymized data sets. A group of individuals is
considered about whom quasi-identifying numerical information is disclosed
such as date of birth, age, weight, and height. The fraction of
individuals is determined whose information is unique in that group and
hence is identifiable unambiguously. Nonuniformity can be captured well by
a single number, the Kullback-Leibler distance. For example sets of real
microdata, given approximations based on Kullback-Leibler distances are
accurate. Second, the effect of disclosing more specific or less specific
information is analyzed experimentally. Third, the effect of correlation
between numerical attributes is measured. A formula gives the
re-identifiability level. The approximations are validated using publicly
available demographic data sets.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 155-171
Issue: 3
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.816222
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.816222
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:3:p:155-171
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: EZIO VENTURINO
Author-X-Name-First: EZIO
Author-X-Name-Last: VENTURINO
Title: Special Issue: Advances in Population Ecology
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 173-174
Issue: 4
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831696
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831696
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:173-174
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: JOSEP L. GARCIA-DOMINGO
Author-X-Name-First: JOSEP L.
Author-X-Name-Last: GARCIA-DOMINGO
Author-Name: JOAN SALDAÑA
Author-X-Name-First: JOAN
Author-X-Name-Last: SALDAÑA
Title: A Pair-Approximation Model for Spatial Patterns in Tree Populations with Asymmetrical Resource Competition
Abstract:
A pair-approximation model for the spatial dynamics of a
height-structured tree population is defined on a regular lattice where
each site can be in 1 of 3 states: empty (gap site), occupied by an
immature tree, and occupied by a mature tree. The nonlinearities are
associated with resource competition effects of mature trees on immature
ones (asymmetric competition) affecting the mortality of the latter but
not their growth. The survival--extinction transition of the forest is
expressed; the early dynamics of colonization are described in terms of
local densities. Predictions of the pair-approximation model are compared
with results from numerical simulations of cellular automata.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 175-191
Issue: 4
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831698
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831698
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:175-191
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NORBERTO ANÍBAL MAIDANA
Author-X-Name-First: NORBERTO ANÍBAL
Author-X-Name-Last: MAIDANA
Author-Name: HYUN MO YANG
Author-X-Name-First: HYUN MO
Author-X-Name-Last: YANG
Title: How Do Bird Migrations Propagate the West Nile virus
Abstract:
The rapid spread of the West Nile virus from New York City
(USA) in 1999 to the West Coast of North America by 2003 is related to
several avian species. The propagation of this virus follows the migratory
routes of these birds.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 192-207
Issue: 4
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831709
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831709
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:192-207
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: HELENA SOFIA RODRIGUES
Author-X-Name-First: HELENA SOFIA
Author-X-Name-Last: RODRIGUES
Author-Name: M. TERESA T. MONTEIRO
Author-X-Name-First: M. TERESA T.
Author-X-Name-Last: MONTEIRO
Author-Name: DELFIM F. M. TORRES
Author-X-Name-First: DELFIM F. M.
Author-X-Name-Last: TORRES
Title: Dengue in Cape Verde: Vector Control and Vaccination
Abstract:
In 2009, for the first time in Cape Verde, an outbreak of
dengue was reported and more than 20,000 people were infected. Only a few
prophylactic measures were taken. The effects of vector control on disease
spreading, such as insecticide (larvicide and adulticide) and mechanical
control, as well as an hypothetical vaccine, are estimated through
simulations with the Cape Verde data.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 208-223
Issue: 4
Volume: 20
Year: 2013
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.831711
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.831711
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:20:y:2013:i:4:p:208-223
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Malay Ghosh
Author-X-Name-First: Malay
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh
Author-Name: Tomasz Żądło
Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz
Author-X-Name-Last: Żądło
Title: Special Issue: Survey Sampling Methods
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-1
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836334
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836334
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:1-1
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Lorenzo Fattorini
Author-X-Name-First: Lorenzo
Author-X-Name-Last: Fattorini
Author-Name: Giulio Ghellini
Author-X-Name-First: Giulio
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghellini
Title: Estimating the Size of Street-Dwelling Populations Using Mark-Resighting Counts
Abstract:
Mark-resighting constitutes an advanced technology for
estimating animal abundance. Joint hypergeometric maximum likelihood,
Minta-Mangel and Bowden estimators are usually adopted with
mark-resighting data. In presence of any tendency of animals to aggregate
into groups, the Bowden estimator is the sole reliable method, providing
that marks are quite evenly distributed among groups. In some cetacean
surveys, marking disturbances are avoided through natural marking. Natural
marking with Bowden criterion is used to estimate the abundance of
street-dwelling populations. The marked individuals are persons identified
and recorded in the initial part of the survey and recognizable in
subsequent occasions. A simulation helps determine the performance of the
Bowden estimator under a wide set of situations, taking into account key
features of street-dwelling populations. When marked individuals are
evenly distributed among groups, the strategy is efficient.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 2-11
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836336
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836336
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:2-11
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wojciech Gamrot
Author-X-Name-First: Wojciech
Author-X-Name-Last: Gamrot
Title: Estimators for the Horvitz-Thompson Statistic Based on Some Posterior Distributions
Abstract:
The knowledge of first-order inclusion probabilities
characterizing a sampling scheme is essential in design-based estimation
of finite population totals. Sometimes the scheme is so complex that these
probabilities cannot be computed exactly. Instead, both inclusion
probabilities and corresponding sampling weights are simulated. One
empirical Horvitz-Thompson estimator for a population total using
simulation-based range-preserving estimates of sampling weights is
obtained by applying the restricted maximum likelihood principle directly
to each inclusion probability. The assumption of a prior distribution and
the assessment of resulting posterior for a weight lead to two other
estimators. One of them is the posterior mean estimator of the
Horvitz-Thompson statistic. In a simulation involving Polish agricultural
census data and a sequential fixed-cost sampling scheme, this estimator
has attractive properties also from a frequentist point of view.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 12-29
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836365
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836365
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:12-29
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tomasz Żądło
Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz
Author-X-Name-Last: Żądło
Title: On the Prediction of the Subpopulation Total Based on Spatially Correlated Longitudinal Data
Abstract:
In a special case of the general linear mixed model, one
random component obeys a spatial autoregressive process and another a
temporal autoregressive process. The population and any affiliations to
subpopulations may change in time. The empirical best linear unbiased
predictor is derived and may be used even if the sample size in the
subpopulation is null in the period of interest. The mean squared error
and its estimator are expressed. The accuracy of the predictor and the
bias of the mean squared error estimator are addressed through
simulations.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 30-44
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836387
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836387
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:30-44
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Santanu Pramanik
Author-X-Name-First: Santanu
Author-X-Name-Last: Pramanik
Title: Selection of Prior for the Variance Component and Approximations for Posterior Moments in the Fay-Herriot Model
Abstract:
In the Fay-Herriot model, a prior distribution for the
variance component allows posterior moments to be approximated with the
Laplace method, avoiding computer intensive Monte Carlo Markov chains. The
extremely skewed posterior distribution of the variance component results
from the asymmetry of the parameter space with variance parameters
constrained to be positive. The prior avoids the extreme skewness of the
posterior in contrast to the commonly used uniform prior. With this prior,
the mean squared error and coverage in the approximate hierarchical Bayes
method are satisfactory when used to estimate small area means.
Computation time is shorter than with Monte Carlo Markov chains. The
approximations give easy interpretations of Bayesian methods and highlight
frequentist properties of the parameters.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 45-64
Issue: 1
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.883879
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.883879
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:1:p:45-64
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ORLA DEMPSEY
Author-X-Name-First: ORLA
Author-X-Name-Last: DEMPSEY
Author-Name: CATHERINE M. COMISKEY
Author-X-Name-First: CATHERINE M.
Author-X-Name-Last: COMISKEY
Title: Estimating the Prevalence of Illegal Drug Use
Abstract:
A generic globally applicable integral equation allows the
estimation of hidden drug use. Formulas for estimating the prevalence of
drug use are provided for both the assumed and known latency period.
Estimates of prevalence of opiate use in Ireland ranging from 7,955
[5,789, 10,122] to 11,986 [8,792, 15,181] with prevalence rates ranging
from 2.7 [2.0, 3.5] per 1,000 to 4.1 [3.0, 5.2] were obtained. The model
can be implemented by service providers and planners if numbers of first
treatments for drug use and the latency period are known or assumed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 65-77
Issue: 2
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836329
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836329
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:65-77
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SCOTT ALAN CARSON
Author-X-Name-First: SCOTT ALAN
Author-X-Name-Last: CARSON
Author-Name: PAUL E. HODGES
Author-X-Name-First: PAUL E.
Author-X-Name-Last: HODGES
Title: The Relationship Among Body Mass, Wealth, and Inequality Across the BMI Distribution: Evidence From Nineteenth-Century Prison Records
Abstract:
Nineteenth-century U.S. Black and White body mass indexes
(BMIs) were distributed symmetrically; neither wasting nor obesity was
common. BMI values were also greater for Blacks than for Whites. During
industrialization in the nineteenth century in the United States, there
was a negative relationship between BMIs and average state-level wealth
and an inverse relationship between BMI and wealth inequality. After
controlling for wealth and inequality, rural agricultural farmers had
greater BMI values than their urban counterparts in other occupations.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 78-94
Issue: 2
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836328
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836328
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:78-94
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: HISASHI INABA
Author-X-Name-First: HISASHI
Author-X-Name-Last: INABA
Title: On a Pandemic Threshold Theorem of the Early Kermack-McKendrick Model with Individual Heterogeneity
Abstract:
A pandemic threshold theorem of the Kermack-McKendrick
epidemic system with individual heterogeneity is proved from the
definition of R 0
by Diekmann, Heesterbeek, and Metz. The early Kermack-McKendrick
epidemic model is extended to recognize individual heterogeneity, where
the state variable indicates an epidemiological state or genetic,
physiological, or behavioral characteristics such as risk of infection.
With the basic reproduction number R
0 for the heterogeneous population,
the final size equation of the limit epidemic starting from a completely
susceptible steady state at t = &minus∞ has a unique positive
solution if and only if R 0
> 1. The main result is that the positive solution of the
final size equation gives the lower bound of the intensity of any epidemic
starting from a host population composed of susceptible and a few infected
individuals who spread on a noncompact domain of the trait variable.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 95-111
Issue: 2
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.891905
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.891905
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:95-111
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: EZRA GAYAWAN
Author-X-Name-First: EZRA
Author-X-Name-Last: GAYAWAN
Author-Name: SAMSON B. ADEBAYO
Author-X-Name-First: SAMSON B.
Author-X-Name-Last: ADEBAYO
Title: Spatial Pattern and Determinants of Age at Marriage in Nigeria Using a Geo-Additive Survival Model
Abstract:
Age at first marriage, after controlling for socio-economic
and demographic variables, varies across regions and districts. A
geo-additive hazard model allows for measuring spatial effects. The
nonlinear and baseline effects are modeled by Bayesian penalized splines;
spatial components are treated as correlated random effects following a
Markov random field. Application is based on data from 1999, 2003, and
2008 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. Age at first marriage is
positively associated with education and urbanization and depends on
religion. It presents a north-south divide.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 112-124
Issue: 2
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.892336
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.892336
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:2:p:112-124
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA
Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA
Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ
Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA
Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ
Title: Delay Differential Equations in Bio-Populations
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 125-126
Issue: 3
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804684
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804684
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:125-126
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA
Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA
Author-Name: MAREK BODNAR
Author-X-Name-First: MAREK
Author-X-Name-Last: BODNAR
Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ
Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA
Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ
Title: Tractable Model of Malignant Gliomas Immunotherapy with Discrete Time Delays
Abstract:
The model of an immune system reaction
against malignant gliomas proposed by Kronik and co-workers is simplified
to the main components of the immune reaction, which are tumor cells and
cytotoxic T-lymphocytes. The system has nonlinear terms with three delays,
but remains tractable. For realistic parameters, time delays have little
influence on the dynamics.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 127-145
Issue: 3
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804690
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804690
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:127-145
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: URSZULA FORYŚ
Author-X-Name-First: URSZULA
Author-X-Name-Last: FORYŚ
Author-Name: JAN POLESZCZUK
Author-X-Name-First: JAN
Author-X-Name-Last: POLESZCZUK
Author-Name: TING LIU
Author-X-Name-First: TING
Author-X-Name-Last: LIU
Title: Logistic Tumor Growth with Delay and Impulsive Treatment
Abstract:
A logistic equation with delay introduced
into net growth describes an initial stage of solid tumor growth. Impulses
describe external interference, such as radiotherapy. Examination of
different treatment protocols showed that the one with constant dosage is
better than with increasing or decreasing dose.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 146-158
Issue: 3
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804688
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804688
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:146-158
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANTONI LEON DAWIDOWICZ
Author-X-Name-First: ANTONI LEON
Author-X-Name-Last: DAWIDOWICZ
Author-Name: ANNA POSKROBKO
Author-X-Name-First: ANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: POSKROBKO
Author-Name: JERZY LESZEK ZALASIŃSKI
Author-X-Name-First: JERZY LESZEK
Author-X-Name-Last: ZALASIŃSKI
Title: A Mathematical Model of the Bioenergetic Processes in Green Plants
Abstract:
The bioenergetic phenomena occurring in
green plants are described by three equations for biomass,
ATP level, and the level of inorganic phosphorus. The
well-posedness of the problem is proved. Simulations show that the
bioenergetic processes are oscillatory with sunlight.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 159-165
Issue: 3
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.804686
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.804686
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:159-165
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MONIKA JOANNA PIOTROWSKA
Author-X-Name-First: MONIKA JOANNA
Author-X-Name-Last: PIOTROWSKA
Author-Name: MAREK BODNAR
Author-X-Name-First: MAREK
Author-X-Name-Last: BODNAR
Title: Logistic Equation with Treatment Function and Discrete Delays
Abstract:
The logistic equation with a periodic or
asymptotically periodic treatment has a delay either in the per head
growth rate or in the net growth rate. When the treatment is constant over
time, there exists at most one supercritical Hopf bifurcation for some
critical value of the delay. We provide conditions that guarantee the
global stability of the trivial steady state when the treatment is an
asymptotically periodic function. For the single delayed model and
asymptotically periodic drug administration, these are necessary and
sufficient conditions. For the double delayed model, given conditions are
only sufficient. Simulations for a pharmacokinetic treatment with various
periods of drug administration show that the double delayed model is more
sensitive than the single delayed model on drug dosage and on the starting
time of treatment.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 166-183
Issue: 3
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.921492
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.921492
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:166-183
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: ANDRÉ DE PALMA
Author-X-Name-First: ANDRÉ
Author-X-Name-Last: DE PALMA
Author-Name: NATHALIE PICARD
Author-X-Name-First: NATHALIE
Author-X-Name-Last: PICARD
Author-Name: MATTHIEU DE LAPPARENT
Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIEU
Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAPPARENT
Title: Risky Time Prospects and Travel Demand
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 185-188
Issue: 4
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836413
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836413
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:185-188
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: MATTHIEU DE LAPPARENT
Author-X-Name-First: MATTHIEU
Author-X-Name-Last: DE LAPPARENT
Author-Name: MOSHE BEN-AKIVA
Author-X-Name-First: MOSHE
Author-X-Name-Last: BEN-AKIVA
Title: Risk Aversion in Travel Mode Choice with Rank-Dependent Utility
Abstract:
Using 2004 stated preference data on travel mode collected in
the Z�rich area, different parametric specifications of the rank-dependent
utility function in a logit mixture model show that commuters are weakly
averse to small-time losses. The results also justify Yaari's dual theory
of choice under risk, that the utility function is linear on outcomes but
that the perception of corresponding probabilities is biased. For leisure
travel, the travelers are risk neutral to small losses of time.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 189-204
Issue: 4
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836415
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836415
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:189-204
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: XUAN LU
Author-X-Name-First: XUAN
Author-X-Name-Last: LU
Author-Name: SONG GAO
Author-X-Name-First: SONG
Author-X-Name-Last: GAO
Author-Name: ERAN BEN-ELIA
Author-X-Name-First: ERAN
Author-X-Name-Last: BEN-ELIA
Author-Name: RYAN POTHERING
Author-X-Name-First: RYAN
Author-X-Name-Last: POTHERING
Title: Travelers' Day-to-Day Route Choice Behavior with Real-Time Information in a Congested Risky Network
Abstract:
Nonrecurring disruptions to traffic systems caused by
incidents or adverse conditions can result in uncertain travel times.
Real-time information allows travelers to adapt to actual traffic
conditions. In a behavior experiment, subjects completed 120 "days" of
repeated route choices in a hypothetical, competitive network submitted to
random capacity reductions. One scenario provided subjects with real-time
information regarding a probable incident and the other did not. A
reinforcement learning model with two scale factors, a discounting rate of
previous experience and a constant term, is estimated by minimizing the
deviation between predicted and observed daily flows. The estimation
combines brute force enumeration and a subsequent stochastic approximation
method. The prediction over 120 runs has a root mean square error of 1.05
per day per route and a bias of 0.14 per route.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 205-219
Issue: 4
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836418
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836418
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:205-219
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NICOLAS COULOMBEL
Author-X-Name-First: NICOLAS
Author-X-Name-Last: COULOMBEL
Author-Name: ANDRÉ DE PALMA
Author-X-Name-First: ANDRÉ
Author-X-Name-Last: DE PALMA
Title: Variability of Travel Time, Congestion, and the Cost of Travel
Abstract:
The variability of travel time modifies the rush hour traffic
and the cost of commuting. The bottleneck model of road congestion with
fixed peak-load demand is augmented of an additive random delay. When
individuals have (α-β-Gamma) preferences,
there exists a unique Nash equilibrium. The variability of travel time
leads to departure rates that are spread more evenly over the rush hour
than when travel times are deterministic. This equilibrium mechanism
mitigates both congestion and the cost of unreliability. This implies that
"single-traveler models," which treat congestion as an exogenous
phenomenon, overestimate the value of reliability for the rush hour. The
application with the uniform or with the exponential distribution helps
appraise the overestimation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 220-242
Issue: 4
Volume: 21
Year: 2014
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836420
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836420
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:21:y:2014:i:4:p:220-242
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andr� de Palma
Author-X-Name-First: Andr�
Author-X-Name-Last: de Palma
Author-Name: Nathalie Picard
Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie
Author-X-Name-Last: Picard
Author-Name: Matthieu de Lapparent
Author-X-Name-First: Matthieu
Author-X-Name-Last: de Lapparent
Title: Risk and Uncertainty in Urban and Transport Economics
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-3
Issue: 1
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836424
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836424
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:1-3
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ignacio A. Inoa
Author-X-Name-First: Ignacio A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Inoa
Author-Name: Nathalie Picard
Author-X-Name-First: Nathalie
Author-X-Name-Last: Picard
Author-Name: Andr� de Palma
Author-X-Name-First: Andr�
Author-X-Name-Last: de Palma
Title: Effect of an Accessibility Measure in a Model for Choice of Residential Location, Workplace, and Type of Employment
Abstract:
A three-level nested logit model for the choice of residential location,
workplace, and type of employment is used to assess the effect of an
individual-specific measure of accessibility to employments that takes
into account the attractiveness of different occupations when the choice
of workplace is anticipated in the decision of residential location. The
model allows for variation in the preferences for types of employment
across individuals and accounts for individual heterogeneity of
preferences at each choice level in education, age, gender, and children.
Using data from the Île-de-France region, the model shows that the
individual-specific accessibility measure is an important determinant of
the choice of residential location and its effect differs along the life
cycle. The attractiveness of the types of employment is a better predictor
of the workplace location than the usual total number of employments.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 4-36
Issue: 1
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925318
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925318
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:4-36
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Wuping Xin
Author-X-Name-First: Wuping
Author-X-Name-Last: Xin
Author-Name: David Levinson
Author-X-Name-First: David
Author-X-Name-Last: Levinson
Title: Stochastic Congestion and Pricing Model with Endogenous Departure Time Selection and Heterogeneous Travelers
Abstract:
In a stochastic roadway congestion and pricing model, one scheme
(omniscient pricing) relies on the full knowledge of each individual
journey cost and of early and late penalties of the traveler. A second
scheme (observable pricing) is based on observed queuing delays only.
Travelers are characterized by late-acceptance levels. The effects of
various late-acceptance levels on congestion patterns with and without
pricing are compared through simulations. The omniscient pricing scheme is
most effective in suppressing the congestion at peak hours and in
distributing travel demands over a longer time horizon. Heterogeneity of
travelers reduces congestion when pricing is imposed, and congestion
pricing becomes more effective when cost structures are diversified rather
than identical. Omniscient pricing better reduces the expected total
social cost; however, more travelers improve welfare individually with
observable pricing. The benefits of a pricing scheme depend on travelers'
cost structures and on the proportion of late-tolerant, late-averse, and
late-neutral travelers in the population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 37-52
Issue: 1
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836423
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836423
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:37-52
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mich�le Cohen
Author-X-Name-First: Mich�le
Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen
Title: Risk Perception, Risk Attitude, and Decision: A Rank-Dependent Analysis
Abstract:
The classical expected utility model of decision under risk has been
criticized from an experimental point of view (Allais' paradox) as well as
for its restrictive lack of explanatory power. The Rank-Dependent Expected
Utility model answers some of these criticisms. The decision maker is
characterized by two functions: a utility function on consequences
measuring preferences over sure outcomes and a probability weighting
function measuring the subjective weighting of probabilities. The model
allows for more diversified types of behavior: it is consistent with the
behavior revealed by the Allais paradox; the decision maker could dislike
risk (prefer its expectation to any lottery) without necessarily avoiding
any increase in risk; diminishing marginal utility may coexist with "weak"
risk-seeking attitudes; decision makers with the same utility function may
differ in their choices between lotteries when they have different
probability weighting functions; furthermore, the same decision maker may
have different, context-dependent, subjective beliefs on events.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 53-70
Issue: 1
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 3
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836425
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836425
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:1:p:53-70
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Morten Brøns
Author-X-Name-First: Morten
Author-X-Name-Last: Brøns
Author-Name: Mathieu Desroches
Author-X-Name-First: Mathieu
Author-X-Name-Last: Desroches
Author-Name: Martin Krupa
Author-X-Name-First: Martin
Author-X-Name-Last: Krupa
Title: Mixed-Mode Oscillations Due to a Singular Hopf Bifurcation in a Forest Pest Model
Abstract:
In a forest pest model, young trees are distinguished from old trees. The
pest feeds on old trees. The pest grows on a fast scale, the young trees
on an intermediate scale, and the old trees on a slow scale. A combination
of a singular Hopf bifurcation and a "weak return" mechanism,
characterized by a small change in one of the variables, determines the
features of the mixed-mode oscillations. Period-doubling and saddle-node
bifurcations lead to closed families (called isolas) of
periodic solutions in a bifurcation corresponding to a singular Hopf
bifurcation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 71-79
Issue: 2
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925344
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925344
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:71-79
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Olivia Ekert-Jaffé
Author-X-Name-First: Olivia
Author-X-Name-Last: Ekert-Jaffé
Author-Name: Shoshana Grossbard
Author-X-Name-First: Shoshana
Author-X-Name-Last: Grossbard
Title: Time Cost of Children as Parents' Foregone Leisure
Abstract:
From the 1998-99 French Insee time use survey, the time cost of children
is estimated in terms of hours of foregone leisure. The focus on couples
with two spouses working full time implies no need to be concerned about
substitution between home production and labor supply. The model accounts
for selection into full-time employment, endogenous wages, and controls
for outside help with home production and child care. The foregone leisure
cost per child under the age of 3 is 1.6 hours for each parent. It is
about half that size for children aged 3 to 14. Children over age 14
involve no leisure cost to parents.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 80-100
Issue: 2
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836332
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836332
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:80-100
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Younga Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Younga
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: Changes in Precarious Employment Among South Korean Women
Abstract:
How does continuity of employment affect precariousness of South Korean
women over their life cycle? A multilevel discrete-time logit model shows
that marriage and the presence of young children do not worsen
precariousness, but poor quality of employment and low occupational status
confine women to precarious statuses. Escaping from precarious employment
comes from higher educational attainment and longer periods of paid
employment.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 101-123
Issue: 2
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 6
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925354
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925354
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:101-123
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: Editorial: Insights into Two-Sex Population Models
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 125-126
Issue: 3
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049106
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049106
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:125-126
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zi Sang
Author-X-Name-First: Zi
Author-X-Name-Last: Sang
Author-Name: Zhipeng Qiu
Author-X-Name-First: Zhipeng
Author-X-Name-Last: Qiu
Author-Name: Zhilan Feng
Author-X-Name-First: Zhilan
Author-X-Name-Last: Feng
Author-Name: Yun Zou
Author-X-Name-First: Yun
Author-X-Name-Last: Zou
Title: Sex-Structured Dynamic of Multi-Group Herpes Simplex Virus 2
Abstract:
A 3(n + l)-dimensional
ordinary differential equation for HSV-2 includes l
groups of men and n groups of women with different risks
of infection. Global Lyapunov functions based on graph theory and on
LaSalle invariance principle show that the model dynamics are completely
determined by the basic reproduction number ℛ0. The
disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when
ℛ0 ≤ 1; a unique endemic equilibrium is
globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region when
ℛ0 > 1.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 127-144
Issue: 3
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925335
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925335
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:127-144
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xue-Zhi Li
Author-X-Name-First: Xue-Zhi
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Sha-Sha Gao
Author-X-Name-First: Sha-Sha
Author-X-Name-Last: Gao
Author-Name: Maia Martcheva
Author-X-Name-First: Maia
Author-X-Name-Last: Martcheva
Title: Modeling and Control of Malaria When Mosquitoes Are Used as Vaccinators
Abstract:
From the idea of turning mosquitoes into vaccinators, a first model of the
transmission of malaria based on standard incidence leads to express the
basic reproduction number R0(ψ) and the
effective reproduction number ℛ(ψ) as a function of the
vaccination rate ψ. The disease-free equilibrium is locally
asymptotically stable if
R0(ψ) > 1. A necessary and
sufficient condition for backward bifurcation is derived. A unique endemic
equilibrium exists if
R0(ψ) > 1. A second model,
based on mass action incidence, leads to express the basic reproduction
number . The
disease-free equilibrium is both locally asymptotically stable and
globally stable if . A unique
endemic equilibrium exists if and is locally
asymptotically stable.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 145-171
Issue: 3
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925322
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925322
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:145-171
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Delphine Picart
Author-X-Name-First: Delphine
Author-X-Name-Last: Picart
Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Author-Name: Denis Thiéry
Author-X-Name-First: Denis
Author-X-Name-Last: Thiéry
Title: Optimal Treatment Schedule in Insect Pest Control in Viticulture
Abstract:
A model for the control of the European grapevine moth Lobesia
botrana includes two control methods: insecticides and mating
disruption. It yields the combination and schedule of application that
minimize cost and losses due to the pest. A simulation is presented for an
experimental situation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 172-181
Issue: 3
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049107
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049107
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:172-181
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Title: Book Review of Demographic Engineering: Population Strategies in Ethnic Conflict by Paul Morland
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 182-185
Issue: 3
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 9
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1049109
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1049109
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:3:p:182-185
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mark McGuinness
Author-X-Name-First: Mark
Author-X-Name-Last: McGuinness
Author-Name: Nokuthaba Sibanda
Author-X-Name-First: Nokuthaba
Author-X-Name-Last: Sibanda
Author-Name: Melissa Welsh
Author-X-Name-First: Melissa
Author-X-Name-Last: Welsh
Title: Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever
Abstract:
Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in
developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature
is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The
incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New
Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or
developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF
history. The critical parameter R0 determines
whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment
protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 187-208
Issue: 4
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925352
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925352
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:187-208
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zhang Zhonghua
Author-X-Name-First: Zhang
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhonghua
Author-Name: Suo Yaohong
Author-X-Name-First: Suo
Author-X-Name-Last: Yaohong
Author-Name: Zhang Juan
Author-X-Name-First: Zhang
Author-X-Name-Last: Juan
Author-Name: Song Xinyu
Author-X-Name-First: Song
Author-X-Name-Last: Xinyu
Title: Stability and Bifurcations in a Model of Bacteria Immunity with Quorum Sensing
Abstract:
Quorum sensing, a widespread phenomenon in bacteria that is used to
coordinate gene expression among local populations, intervenes in the
competition between bacteria and the immune system. The domain of
attraction of the bacteria-free equilibrium results from a linear matrix
inequality optimization with a multivariate polynomial objective under
constraints. The Bogdanov-Takens singularity and bifurcation, including a
saddle-node bifurcation, a Hopf bifurcation, and a homoclinic bifurcation,
are obtained from normal form theory. The normal form of a bifurcation is
a simple dynamical system which is equivalent to all systems exhibiting
this bifurcation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 209-233
Issue: 4
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.999498
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.999498
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:209-233
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sally Abdelfatah
Author-X-Name-First: Sally
Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfatah
Author-Name: Reda Mazloum
Author-X-Name-First: Reda
Author-X-Name-Last: Mazloum
Title: Efficient Estimation in a Two-Stage Randomized Response Model
Abstract:
A two-stage randomized response model is devised to circumvent the lack of
answers to a sensitive question. Respondents who have not answered the
sensitive question in the first stage are requested in the second stage to
either answer the sensitive question (second attempt then) or to draw a
card indicating "yes" or "no". In the latter case, they are required to
report the outcome. This apparently innocent device helps to build a more
efficient estimator of the proportion of the population having a given
sensitive attribute. The procedure also increases the respondents'
cooperation. As other estimators of the proportion of the population
having a given sensitive attribute using randomized response models, this
estimator can formally take values outside the unit interval, a
possibility which should not be allowed. The minimum sample size for which
the frequency of estimates outside [0,1] is small enough is obtained by
simulation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 234-251
Issue: 4
Volume: 22
Year: 2015
Month: 12
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.953897
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.953897
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:22:y:2015:i:4:p:234-251
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Title: Insights into two-sex population models 2
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 1
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1116309
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1116309
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:1-2
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Piermarco Cannarsa
Author-X-Name-First: Piermarco
Author-X-Name-Last: Cannarsa
Author-Name: Giuseppe Da Prato
Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe
Author-X-Name-Last: Da Prato
Title: Positivity of solutions in a perturbed age-structured model
Abstract:
For certain age-structured population models, the cone of positive
functions is preserved when the dynamics is perturbed by white noise.
Solutions can be forced to assume negative values, even when initial
conditions are strictly positive. Necessary and sufficient conditions are
expressed under which the solutions are nonnegative.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 3-16
Issue: 1
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.925340
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.925340
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:3-16
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mi-Young Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Mi-Young
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Tsendayush Selenge
Author-X-Name-First: Tsendayush
Author-X-Name-Last: Selenge
Title: Discontinuous-continuous Galerkin methods for population diffusion with finite life span
Abstract:
Discontinuous-continuous Galerkin methods approximate the solution to a
population diffusion model with finite life span. The regularity of the
solution depends on mortality; it decreases when mortality is high enough.
The numerical solution has strong stability and a priori error estimates
are obtained away from the region where the solution is not smooth. The
error estimates are optimal in order and in regularity. The matrix Eq.
(20) from the discretization satisfies the nonstagnation condition for
generalized minimal residual method. Several numerical examples are
presented.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 17-36
Issue: 1
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836428
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836428
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Daniel Maxin
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Maxin
Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Author-Name: Laurentiu Sega
Author-X-Name-First: Laurentiu
Author-X-Name-Last: Sega
Title: Reduced fertility and asymptotics of the logistic model
Abstract:
This logistic model includes three age groups. Juveniles do not reproduce,
and old individuals reproduce at a lower rate. Pairings between
individuals of different fertility rates may lead to multiple equilibria
and bi-stability: the total population converges to different limits
depending on its initial size. The behavior is correlated with transition
rates from high to low fertility groups and with the frequency of pairing
among the various groups of reproduction level. The proportions of adults
at equilibrium are roots of a quartic polynomial, alternating sinks and
saddles. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of
bi-stability are provided for a simplified model.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 37-49
Issue: 1
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1117270
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1117270
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:37-49
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fabio Augusto Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio Augusto
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Author-Name: Kai Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Kai
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Title: The logistic, age-structured, two-sex population model applied to U.S. demography
Abstract:
The existence and uniqueness of continuous and classical solutions are
established for the logistic, two-sex, age-structured population model,
using a fixed point argument for an equivalent system of integral
equations. Application to the population of the United States from 1980 to
1990, for which marriage functions are tested.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 50-67
Issue: 1
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.953898
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.953898
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:50-67
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Abdessamad Tridane
Author-X-Name-First: Abdessamad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tridane
Title: Population dynamics of Rift Valley fever, sleeping sickness, and vector-borne diseases brought by human migrations
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 69-70
Issue: 2
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1154780
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1154780
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:69-70
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Rachelle E. Miron
Author-X-Name-First: Rachelle E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Miron
Author-Name: Gaël A. Giordano
Author-X-Name-First: Gaël A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Giordano
Author-Name: Alison D. Kealey
Author-X-Name-First: Alison D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kealey
Author-Name: Robert J. Smith?
Author-X-Name-First: Robert J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith?
Title: Multiseason transmission for Rift Valley fever in North America
Abstract:
Rift Valley fever is a vector-borne disease, primarly found in West
Africa, that is transmitted to humans and domestic livestock. Its
similarities to the West Nile virus suggest that establishment in the
developed world may be possible. Rift Valley fever has the potential to
invade North America, where seasons play a role in disease persistence.
The values for the basic reproductive number show that, in order to
eradicate the disease, the survival time of mosquitoes must decrease below
8.67 days. Mechanisms such as aggressive spraying that decreases the
mosquito population can contain an outbreak. Otherwise, Rift Valley fever
is likely to establish itself as a recurring seasonal outbreak. Rift
Valley fever poses a potential threat to North America that would require
aggressive interventions in order to prevent a recurring seasonal
outbreak.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 71-94
Issue: 2
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836426
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836426
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Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yasmine Samia
Author-X-Name-First: Yasmine
Author-X-Name-Last: Samia
Author-Name: Alison Kealey
Author-X-Name-First: Alison
Author-X-Name-Last: Kealey
Author-Name: Robert J. Smith?
Author-X-Name-First: Robert J.
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith?
Title: A mathematical model of a theoretical sleeping sickness vaccine
Abstract:
Human African sleeping sickness is found throughout sub-Saharan Africa. It
affects up to 70,000 individuals per year, primarily the poor. Existing
treatments are limited, costly, and often toxic. Recent evidence suggests
that a vaccine may be viable. Potential vaccines against Rhodesian
sleeping sickness may be imperfect, may only be delivered to some
proportion of the population, may wane over time, and may not always mount
an immunogenic response in the individual receiving it. The potential
effects of such a vaccine are addressed and compared to vector control.
The basic reproductive ratio for both unvaccinated and vaccinated
individuals is derived. The fitness ratio is used to show that vaccines
that grant longer life must be accompanied by a corresponding reduction in
transmissibility. A sensitivity analysis shows that control of tsetse
flies through insecticide is superior to an idealized vaccine. Such a
vaccine is unlikely to eradicate the disease, even if delivered to 100% of
the population. Consequently, efforts to control sleeping sickness that do
not incorporate vector control may be flawed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 95-122
Issue: 2
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836427
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836427
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:95-122
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sehjeong Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Sehjeong
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Author-Name: Abdessamad Tridane
Author-X-Name-First: Abdessamad
Author-X-Name-Last: Tridane
Author-Name: Dong Eui Chang
Author-X-Name-First: Dong Eui
Author-X-Name-Last: Chang
Title: Human migrations and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa
Abstract:
The efficacy of border screening as a prophylactic measure against
mosquito-borne diseases in Africa depends on the value of the lower bound
of the basic reproduction number. If this lower bound is greater than one,
then border screening may be ineffective. In this case, the best
prophylaxis is to isolate and treat patients in their region of residence.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-146
Issue: 2
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054221
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054221
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:2:p:123-146
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zofia Mielecka-Kubien
Author-X-Name-First: Zofia
Author-X-Name-Last: Mielecka-Kubien
Title: On the estimation of the distribution of alcohol consumption
Abstract:
The parameters of the distribution of alcohol consumption are estimated from the population mean and the mode of the log-normal distribution, separately for each sex. The lack of representativeness of the sample due to the failure to reach heavy drinkers is overcome. The distributions of alcohol consumption show a tight relationship between mean and standard deviation.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-19
Issue: 1
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348749
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348749
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:1-19
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luca Bartoli
Author-X-Name-First: Luca
Author-X-Name-Last: Bartoli
Author-Name: Maria Chiara Pagliarella
Author-X-Name-First: Maria Chiara
Author-X-Name-Last: Pagliarella
Author-Name: Carlo Russo
Author-X-Name-First: Carlo
Author-X-Name-Last: Russo
Author-Name: Renato Salvatore
Author-X-Name-First: Renato
Author-X-Name-Last: Salvatore
Title: Small-area estimation in the presence of area-level correlated responses
Abstract:
The Fay-Herriot area-level model for correlated response data is augmented with a between-groups-of-domains effect. Correlated-response parameters of small-area estimates no longer need the assumption of spatial contiguity. A simulation shows that area-level correlated-response observations increase the efficiency of the estimates, but do not reduce the biases.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 20-40
Issue: 1
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1408354
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1408354
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:20-40
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Younga Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Younga
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: Precarious employment among South Korean women: Insights from a comparison to France
Abstract:
Family responsibilities for women are often associated with precarious employment. This relation varies depending on whether women can reconcile family life and work or not. Based on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study from 1998 to 2008 and on the French part of the European Community Household Panel between 1998 and 2001, a multiple correspondence analysis shows that precariousness in employment is correlated with family life and levels of education. The better conditions of work-family balance in France enable young mothers to combine family life with stable employment of good quality, which is not the case for South Korean women. The comparison of the two countries highlights the necessary reforms in favor of women’s better being.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 41-61
Issue: 1
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1408356
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1408356
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:1:p:41-61
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vera Toepoel
Author-X-Name-First: Vera
Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel
Author-Name: Matthias Schonlau
Author-X-Name-First: Matthias
Author-X-Name-Last: Schonlau
Title: Dealing with nonresponse: Strategies to increase participation and methods for postsurvey adjustments
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 79-83
Issue: 2
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1299988
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1299988
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:79-83
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Angelo Mazza
Author-X-Name-First: Angelo
Author-X-Name-Last: Mazza
Author-Name: Antonio Punzo
Author-X-Name-First: Antonio
Author-X-Name-Last: Punzo
Title: Dealing with omitted answers in a survey on social integration of immigrants in Italy
Abstract:
Surveys are used to infer the level of social integration of immigrants. Item response theory helps to describe the relationship among responses to test items and latent traits of interest. However, in the presence of nonignorable missing data, which are omitted responses depending on the latent traits to be measured, estimates of the model parameters are biased. To account for nonignorable missing data, the quantity and quality of contacts between immigrants and natives (so called “social integration”) are taken into account through a linear function of the response propensity. Higher education, no intention to migrate again, young age, Albanian nationality, and declaring a non-Muslim religion or none, comparatively favor social integration.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 84-102
Issue: 2
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271648
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271648
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:84-102
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Caroline Vandenplas
Author-X-Name-First: Caroline
Author-X-Name-Last: Vandenplas
Author-Name: Michèle Ernst Stähli
Author-X-Name-First: Michèle Ernst
Author-X-Name-Last: Stähli
Author-Name: Dominique Joye
Author-X-Name-First: Dominique
Author-X-Name-Last: Joye
Author-Name: Alexandre Pollien
Author-X-Name-First: Alexandre
Author-X-Name-Last: Pollien
Title: Adjustment for nonresponse with variables from different sources: Bias correction and precision loss, with application to the Swiss European Social Survey 2012
Abstract:
Adjustment for nonresponse should reduce the nonresponse bias without decreasing the precision of the estimates. Adjustment for nonresponses are commonly based on socio-demographic variables, although these variables may be poorly correlated with response propensities and with variables of interest. Such variables nevertheless have the advantage of being available for all sample units, whether or not they are participating in the survey. Alternatively, adjustment for nonresponse can be obtained from a follow-up survey aimed at sample units which did not participate in the survey and from which the variables are designed to be correlated with response propensities. However, information collected through these follow-up surveys is not available for people in the sample who participated neither in the survey nor in its nonresponse follow-up. These two sets of variables when used in a nonresponse model for the Swiss European Social Survey 2012 differ only slightly with regard to their effect on bias correction and on the precision of estimates. The variables from the follow-up are performing slightly better. In both cases, the adjustment for nonresponse performs poorly.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 103-125
Issue: 2
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271656
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271656
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:103-125
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Annamaria Bianchi
Author-X-Name-First: Annamaria
Author-X-Name-Last: Bianchi
Author-Name: Silvia Biffignandi
Author-X-Name-First: Silvia
Author-X-Name-Last: Biffignandi
Title: Representativeness in panel surveys
Abstract:
A panel is a set of units recruited and used in successive surveys. When the sample unit is the household, so-called R-indicators together with the comparison of distributions of certain variables to those known in the total population help to measure the representativeness of the panel. The method is applied to Understanding Society, a U.K. household longitudinal study. At each wave, under- and over-represented groups of individuals are identified. This allows the implementation of better survey designs and procedures to reduce the bias of nonresponse.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 126-143
Issue: 2
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1271650
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1271650
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:126-143
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir Kostov
Author-X-Name-First: Vladimir
Author-X-Name-Last: Kostov
Title: , by Anatoli I. Agafonov
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 144-145
Issue: 2
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1299989
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1299989
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:144-145
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 149-150
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513571
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513571
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:149-150
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: RAOUF BOUCEKKINE
Author-X-Name-First: RAOUF
Author-X-Name-Last: BOUCEKKINE
Author-Name: DAVID CROIX
Author-X-Name-First: DAVID
Author-X-Name-Last: CROIX
Author-Name: OMAR LICANDRO
Author-X-Name-First: OMAR
Author-X-Name-Last: LICANDRO
Title: MODELLING VINTAGE STRUCTURES WITH DDEs: PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS
Abstract: A comprehensive study of the linkages between demographic and economic variables should not only account for vintage specificity but also incorporate the relevant economic and demographic decisions in a complete optimal control set-up. A methodological set-up allowing to reach these objectives is described. In this framework, time is continuous but agents take discrete timing decisions. The mixture of continuous and discrete time yields differential-difference equations (DDEs). It is clearly shown that the approach allows for a relatively complete and rigorous analytical exploration in some special cases (mainly linear or quasi linear models), and for an easy computational appraisal in the general case.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 151-179
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480890513580
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480890513580
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:151-179
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL*
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL*
Author-Name: ROMINA BOARINI
Author-X-Name-First: ROMINA
Author-X-Name-Last: BOARINI
Title: PRESERVING TRANSFER BENEFIT FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE GENERATIONS
Abstract: How should governmental policy be adjusted to guarantee a positive account for each generation, taking into account welfare and equity across age classes? Such a contract depends on the dynamic maintenance of a positive account for every present and future generation and can be achieved by manipulating both pension and education spending. The ensuing dynamic tradeoff between generational benefit and equity implies an optimal interest rate in human capital and attenuates the link that long-term pension sustainability necessarily depends on positive population growth.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-203
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513599
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513599
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:181-203
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: OLLI TAHVONEN
Author-X-Name-First: OLLI
Author-X-Name-Last: TAHVONEN
Title: OPTIMAL HARVESTING OF FOREST AGE CLASSES: A SURVEY OF SOME RECENT RESULTS
Abstract: Dynamic optimization problems with vintage or age class structures involve complexities that are not encountered in economic models with fewer state variables. These problems have been faced for centuries in forest harvesting decisions, and the earliest ideas for tackling them date from the early 15th century. However, only recently has the harvesting problem with multiple age classes been specified in a form that is fruitful for economic analysis. This survey discusses some of the main properties of the nonlinear discrete time forestry model, which has proven to be tractable in analytical studies and has been used in empirical policy-oriented research. It is shown that the model's stationary state is represented by a set of cyclic solutions and that the maximum radius of the cycle depends on the period length applied in the model specification. The result suggests that it is essential to note that implications of using continuous or discrete variables in specifying time and age structure in age class models with economic optimization.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 205-232
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513616
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513616
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:205-232
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: SILVIA FAGGIAN*
Author-X-Name-First: SILVIA
Author-X-Name-Last: FAGGIAN*
Author-Name: FAUSTO GOZZI
Author-X-Name-First: FAUSTO
Author-X-Name-Last: GOZZI
Title: ON THE DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH FOR OPTIMAL CONTROL PROBLEMS OF PDE'S WITH AGE STRUCTURE
Abstract: A survey and some new results are presented concerning the dynamic programming for a class of optimal control problems of partial differential equations with age-structure and of delay systems that include some applied examples from economic theory and from population dynamics. A general optimal control problem in Hilbert spaces applying to all examples is investigated, with particular stress on one family of applications: optimal investment models with vintage capital. Some new results are given for the case of constrained investments, including a study of the properties of the optimal trajectories.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 233-270
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 11
Year: 2004
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480490513625
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480490513625
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:11:y:2004:i:3-4:p:233-270
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov
Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav
Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov
Author-Name: Joseph Whitmeyer
Author-X-Name-First: Joseph
Author-X-Name-Last: Whitmeyer
Title: Stationary distributions in Kolmogorov-Petrovski- Piskunov-type models with an infinite number of particles
Abstract:
A model of population dynamics in continuous time on the lattice contains the Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov equation as a special case. A limit distribution exists. The first three moments and the correlation function are expressed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 147-160
Issue: 3
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330010
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330010
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:147-160
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vera Toepoel
Author-X-Name-First: Vera
Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel
Author-Name: Hannah Emerson
Author-X-Name-First: Hannah
Author-X-Name-Last: Emerson
Title: Using experts’ consensus (the Delphi method) to evaluate weighting techniques in web surveys not based on probability schemes
Abstract:
Weighting techniques in web surveys based on no probability schemes are devised to correct biases due to self-selection, undercoverage, and nonresponse. In an interactive panel, 38 survey experts addressed weighting techniques and auxiliary variables in web surveys. Most of them corrected all biases jointly and applied calibration and propensity score adjustments. Although they claimed that sociodemographic and web-related variables are the most useful auxiliary variables to employ in adjustments, they considered only sociodemographic variables to correct biases because of their availability.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 161-171
Issue: 3
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330012
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330012
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:161-171
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel Zimmermann
Author-X-Name-First: Pavel
Author-X-Name-Last: Zimmermann
Title: Modeling mortality at old age with time-varying parameters
Abstract:
Several models of old age mortality with time-varying parameters are expressed in a single formula. In these models, the existence of an age threshold above which mortality increases over time and below which mortality decreases over time is problematic. The conditions of appearance of this threshold are expressed and shown on logistic and exponential models with empirical data. The conditions of appearance of the threshold reflect actual situations in developed countries. Richards’ curve avoids the appearance of the threshold with empirical data.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 172-180
Issue: 3
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330013
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330013
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:172-180
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Title: Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization: Sensitivity analysis
Abstract:
The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length of the reconstruction period, and to variations in the actual demographic flows.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-189
Issue: 3
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330014
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330014
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:181-189
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Title: Sensible Moyen Âge, une histoire des émotions dans l’Occident médiéval [Sensitive Middle Ages, a History of Emotions in the Medieval West], by Damien Bocquet and Piroska Nagy
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 190-195
Issue: 3
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1330017
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1330017
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:3:p:190-195
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews
Title: Methods and applications in spatial demography
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 183-184
Issue: 4
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1653058
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1653058
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:183-184
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews
Title: In memoriam: Jennifer Buher Kane (1979–2019)
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 185-185
Issue: 4
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1669363
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1669363
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:185-185
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jennifer B. Kane
Author-X-Name-First: Jennifer B.
Author-X-Name-Last: Kane
Author-Name: Ehsan Farshchi
Author-X-Name-First: Ehsan
Author-X-Name-Last: Farshchi
Title: Neighborhood affluence protects against antenatal smoking: Evidence from a spatial multiple membership model
Abstract:
A spatial multiple membership model formalizes the effect of neighborhood affluence on antenatal smoking. The data are geocoded New Jersey birth certificate records linked to United States census tract-level data from 1999 to 2007. Neighborhood affluence shows significant spatial autocorrelation and local clustering. Better model fit is observed when incorporating the spatial clustering of neighborhood affluence into multivariate analyses. Relative to the spatial multiple membership model, the multilevel model that ignores spatial clustering produced downwardly biased standard errors; the effective sample size of the key parameter of interest (neighborhood affluence) is also lower. Residents of communities located in high-high affluence clusters likely have better access to health-promoting institutions that regulate antenatal smoking behaviors.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 186-207
Issue: 4
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553399
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553399
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:186-207
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonathan Daw
Author-X-Name-First: Jonathan
Author-X-Name-Last: Daw
Author-Name: Ashton M. Verdery
Author-X-Name-First: Ashton M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Verdery
Author-Name: Sarah E. Patterson
Author-X-Name-First: Sarah E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Patterson
Title: Beyond household walls: the spatial structure of American extended kinship networks
Abstract:
How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same census tract. Multivariate regression tests show that family structure, educational attainment, and age are closely associated with kin proximity. Fixed-effects models demonstrate that family formation shapes spatial relations between kin.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 208-237
Issue: 4
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1592637
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1592637
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:4:p:208-237
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zawar Hussain
Author-X-Name-First: Zawar
Author-X-Name-Last: Hussain
Author-Name: Mashail M. Al-Sobhi
Author-X-Name-First: Mashail M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Sobhi
Author-Name: Bander Al-Zahrani
Author-X-Name-First: Bander
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Zahrani
Author-Name: Housila P. Singh
Author-X-Name-First: Housila P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Singh
Author-Name: Tanveer A. Tarray
Author-X-Name-First: Tanveer A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Tarray
Title: Improved randomized response in additive scrambling models
Abstract:
Randomized response models deal with stigmatizing variables appearing in health surveys. Additive and subtractive scrambling in split sample and double response yield unbiased mean and sensitivity estimators of high precision. The split sample method is protective of privacy. The double response method is as protective only conditionally. To achieve the maximum efficiency, the scrambling variables must be similar to each other and the probability of obtaining a true response must be as large as possible. The randomized response procedures yield more efficient estimates of the average total number of classes missed by university students.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 205-221
Issue: 4
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1087773
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1087773
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:205-221
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sally Abdelfatah
Author-X-Name-First: Sally
Author-X-Name-Last: Abdelfatah
Author-Name: Reda Mazloum
Author-X-Name-First: Reda
Author-X-Name-Last: Mazloum
Title: An efficient two-stage randomized response model under stratified random sampling
Abstract:
A two-stage randomized response model is extended to stratified random sampling in order to find out more efficient estimators of proportions built from sensitive questions, which respondents may not answer truthfully, in a population divided into homogeneous subgroups. In each subgroup, the respondents who have not answered the sensitive question in the first stage are requested in the second stage to either answer the sensitive question (second attempt then) or to draw a card indicating “yes” or “no”. In the latter case, they are required to report the outcome. Such extension provides a more efficient estimator of the proportion of the population having a given sensitive attribute than its counterpart in simple random sampling. The extended two-stage randomized response model is more efficient than the stratified randomized response model, where respondents must answer the sensitive question either in the first or in the second stage. Moreover, it increases the respondents’ cooperation. When strata weights are unknown, they are estimated by the double sampling method.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 222-238
Issue: 4
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1222222
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1222222
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:222-238
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tao Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Tao
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Title: Socioeconomic determinants of obesity and hypertension at the county level in China
Abstract:
In a nationally representative database, the risk of obesity and hypertension in China is significantly associated with age and the socioeconomic environment. Women in China are more likely obese and less likely to have hypertension than men. Education mitigates the risks of obesity and hypertension.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 239-252
Issue: 4
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1222223
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1222223
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:239-252
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: EOV Editorial Board
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: ebi-ebi
Issue: 4
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2016.1253953
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2016.1253953
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:4:p:ebi-ebi
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Seyed M. Moghadas
Author-X-Name-First: Seyed M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Moghadas
Title: Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-2
Issue: 1
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054222
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054222
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:1-2
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yali Yang
Author-X-Name-First: Yali
Author-X-Name-Last: Yang
Author-Name: Jianhong Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Jianhong
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Jianquan Li
Author-X-Name-First: Jianquan
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Xiaxia Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaxia
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Title: Tuberculosis with relapse: A model
Abstract:
In a model of tuberculosis with relapse, the basic reproduction number R0 includes new and relapse infections. Lyapunov functions help to prove that the global dynamic is completely determined by R0. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling shows that early diagnosis and treatment are more efficient when relapse cases are considered.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 3-20
Issue: 1
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.998550
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.998550
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:3-20
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marie Varughese
Author-X-Name-First: Marie
Author-X-Name-Last: Varughese
Author-Name: Richard Long
Author-X-Name-First: Richard
Author-X-Name-Last: Long
Author-Name: Michael Y. Li
Author-X-Name-First: Michael Y.
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Title: Efficacy of screening and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection
Abstract:
Sixty-three percent of the total active tuberculosis cases in Canada were diagnosed among foreign-born individuals, representing 20% of the total population. The majority of these cases occur from the reactivation of tuberculosis infections acquired prior to immigration. A preventive policy consisting of screening and treating new immigrants for latent tuberculosis infection is evaluated on its efficacy for reducing the total number of tuberculosis cases, using tuberculosis incidence data between 1986 and 1995 from the Canadian tuberculosis reporting system. The most effective intervention is to screen for and treat latent tuberculosis infection among arriving immigrants from countries of birth with a tuberculosis incidence rate greater than 15 cases per 100,000.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 21-36
Issue: 1
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2014.998546
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2014.998546
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:21-36
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yimin Du
Author-X-Name-First: Yimin
Author-X-Name-Last: Du
Author-Name: Jianhong Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Jianhong
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Jane M. Heffernan
Author-X-Name-First: Jane M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Heffernan
Title: A simple in-host model for Mycobacterium tuberculosis that captures all infection outcomes
Abstract:
Tuberculosis infection can result in clearance, latent infection, or active disease, with slow or fast progression. A four-dimensional model of in-host tuberculosis infection includes macrophages, T lymphocytes, tuberculosis bacteria, and their interactions. Changes in the infection rate, cell-mediated immunity rate, macrophage loss rate, and bacteria killing rate most affect disease outcomes. Simulations show that a periodic solution can occur. When the infected macrophage killing rate is constant, a backward bifurcation exists and the system is globally stable.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 37-63
Issue: 1
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054220
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054220
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:37-63
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Fred Brauer
Author-X-Name-First: Fred
Author-X-Name-Last: Brauer
Author-Name: Yanyu Xiao
Author-X-Name-First: Yanyu
Author-X-Name-Last: Xiao
Author-Name: Seyed M. Moghadas
Author-X-Name-First: Seyed M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Moghadas
Title: Drug resistance in an age-of-infection model
Abstract:
In the case of a disease spreading over a time-scale comparable to the average lifetime in a host population, when the infectiousness of individuals depends on the tine since the onset of infection and when infections involve both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains of a pathogen, resistance may develop during the treatment of drug-sensitive strains. If increasing the treatment rate reduces the reproduction number of the drug-sensitive strain to a value below the reproduction number of the drug-resistant strain, then the disease may persist at a boundary equilibrium where only drug-resistant infection is present.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 64-78
Issue: 1
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1054216
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1054216
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:1:p:64-78
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Natalja Menold
Author-X-Name-First: Natalja
Author-X-Name-Last: Menold
Author-Name: Christof Wolf
Author-X-Name-First: Christof
Author-X-Name-Last: Wolf
Author-Name: Kathrin Bogner
Author-X-Name-First: Kathrin
Author-X-Name-Last: Bogner
Title: Design aspects of rating scales in questionnaires
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 63-65
Issue: 2
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439240
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439240
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:63-65
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Diana Zavala-Rojas
Author-X-Name-First: Diana
Author-X-Name-Last: Zavala-Rojas
Author-Name: Raül Tormos
Author-X-Name-First: Raül
Author-X-Name-Last: Tormos
Author-Name: Wiebke Weber
Author-X-Name-First: Wiebke
Author-X-Name-Last: Weber
Author-Name: Melanie Revilla
Author-X-Name-First: Melanie
Author-X-Name-Last: Revilla
Title: Designing response scales with multi-trait-multi-method experiments
Abstract:
Split-ballot multi-trait-multi-method experiments are used to evaluate the quality of measurement of different response scales of survey items gauging “evaluation of government services” and “political trust.” The response scales differ by agree/disagree scales, item-specific scales, total number of categories, and the presence of fixed reference points on their constructing extreme items. The Center for Opinion Studies of the Catalan government in Spain conducted the survey in 2011. The best response scale depends on the complexity of the topic and of the formulation of the question. For simple topics and formulations, the format of the response scale has no effect on the quality of measurement.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 66-81
Issue: 2
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439241
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439241
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:66-81
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stefanie Eifler
Author-X-Name-First: Stefanie
Author-X-Name-Last: Eifler
Author-Name: Natalja Menold
Author-X-Name-First: Natalja
Author-X-Name-Last: Menold
Title: Linearity, symmetry, and equidistance in semantic differential scales for measuring images of self and images of others
Abstract:
Violations of linearity, symmetry, and equidistance of scale points in semantic differential scales may be due to respondents failing to figure out antonyms, to a positivity bias, or to respondents curtailing their reading the options. Multiple correspondence analysis on data provided by a randomized between-subjects experiment (split-ballot), using a web survey of 537 German residents, shows that bipolar semantic differential scales allow for linear measurement and conceal no positivity bias, and that using not suitable adjective pairs in semantic differential scales destroys symmetry.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 82-98
Issue: 2
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439242
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439242
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:82-98
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kathrin Bogner
Author-X-Name-First: Kathrin
Author-X-Name-Last: Bogner
Author-Name: Klaus Pforr
Author-X-Name-First: Klaus
Author-X-Name-Last: Pforr
Author-Name: Natalja Menold
Author-X-Name-First: Natalja
Author-X-Name-Last: Menold
Title: Attitude strength moderates adverse effects to questionnaire design
Abstract:
The presentation and visual design of the “don’t know” category in rating scales on respondents’ behavior may have ambivalent effects. The hypothesis is that attitude strength toward the topic influences the respondents’ sensitivity to the graphical design of the scale. A paper-and-pencil questionnaire conducted among 307 German university students contained an experimental variation of the presentation of a “don’t know” category and its visual design. A multinomial logistic regression shows that presenting a “don’t know” category drives respondents toward extreme categories. The visual design of the “don’t know” category influences the distribution of responses, all the more that the respondents’ attitudes toward the item topic are weak.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 99-111
Issue: 2
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439244
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439244
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:99-111
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vera Toepoel
Author-X-Name-First: Vera
Author-X-Name-Last: Toepoel
Author-Name: Frederik Funke
Author-X-Name-First: Frederik
Author-X-Name-Last: Funke
Title: Sliders, visual analogue scales, or buttons: Influence of formats and scales in mobile and desktop surveys
Abstract:
In an experiment dealing with the use of personal computer, tablet, or mobile, scale points (up to 5, 7, or 11) and response formats (bars or buttons) are varied to examine differences in mean scores and nonresponse. The total number of “not applicable” answers does not vary significantly. Personal computer has the lowest item nonresponse, followed by mobile and tablet, and a lower mean score than for mobile. Slider bars showed lower mean scores and more nonresponses than buttons, indicating that they are more prone to bias and difficult in use. Sider bars, which work with a drag-and-drop principle, perform worse than visual analogue scales working with a point-and-click principle and buttons. Five-point scales have more nonresponses than eleven-point scales. Respondents evaluate 11-point scales more positively than shorter scales.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 112-122
Issue: 2
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1439245
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1439245
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:2:p:112-122
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Guillaume Chauvet
Author-X-Name-First: Guillaume
Author-X-Name-Last: Chauvet
Title: Variance estimation for the 2006 French housing survey
Abstract:
In the 2006 French housing survey, information is collected on many aspects of housing to describe the housing stock in France and the housing conditions of French households. The basic national sample results from a multistage sampling design. Complementary samples were selected to perform accurate estimations for socio-demographic domains. Some French regions proceeded to a regional and local extension of the national sample. The variance is estimated for a region with a regional and local extension of the basic national sample.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 147-163
Issue: 3
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2013.836401
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2013.836401
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:147-163
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Thierry E. Huillet
Author-X-Name-First: Thierry E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Huillet
Title: Random walk Green kernels in the neutral Moran model conditioned on survivors at a random time to origin
Abstract:
In the theory of finite discrete-time birth and death chains with absorbing endpoint boundaries, the evaluation of both additive and multiplicative path functionals is made possible by their Green and λ–potential kernels. These computations are addressed in the context of such Markov chains. The application to the neutral Moran model of population genetics yields first hitting and return times. A neutral Moran bridge model, forward and backward in time, for a given total number x of survivors of a single common ancestor at some random time T to the origin of times, yields the age of a mutant allele currently observed to have x copies of itself. This forward theory of age, made possible by Green kernels, is comparable to Watterson’s backward theory of age, which makes use of the reversibility of the Moran chain.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 164-200
Issue: 3
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1087775
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1087775
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:164-200
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Title: , by Andreas Wagner
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 201-203
Issue: 3
Volume: 23
Year: 2016
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2015.1080053
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2015.1080053
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:23:y:2016:i:3:p:201-203
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Biagio Aragona
Author-X-Name-First: Biagio
Author-X-Name-Last: Aragona
Author-Name: Rosanna De Rosa
Author-X-Name-First: Rosanna
Author-X-Name-Last: De Rosa
Title: Big data in policy making
Abstract:
A review of studies based on big data shows that big data advantageously complete surveys and censuses, nurture policy making, and highlight effects of a given policy in real time.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 107-113
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418113
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418113
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:107-113
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Angela Chieppa
Author-X-Name-First: Angela
Author-X-Name-Last: Chieppa
Author-Name: Gerardo Gallo
Author-X-Name-First: Gerardo
Author-X-Name-Last: Gallo
Author-Name: Valeria Tomeo
Author-X-Name-First: Valeria
Author-X-Name-Last: Tomeo
Author-Name: Francesco Borrelli
Author-X-Name-First: Francesco
Author-X-Name-Last: Borrelli
Author-Name: Stefania Di Domenico
Author-X-Name-First: Stefania
Author-X-Name-Last: Di Domenico
Title: Knowledge discovery for inferring the usually resident population from administrative registers
Abstract:
From 2018 onward, the population census in Italy will leave the traditional “door-to-door” enumeration for a “register-based” system combining administrative data and surveys. An integrated system of registers makes it possible to identify patterns and groups among huge amounts of administrative data. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) carried out a trial to compute the usually resident population by using administrative data and identify patterns, leading to classify individuals and constitute groups, in order to prepare the register-based census.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 92-106
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418114
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418114
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:92-106
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luis Martinez-Uribe
Author-X-Name-First: Luis
Author-X-Name-Last: Martinez-Uribe
Title: Digital archives as Big data
Abstract:
Digital archives contribute to Big data. Combining social network analysis, coincidence analysis, data reduction, and visual analytics leads to better characterize topics over time, publishers’ main themes and best authors of all times, according to the British newspaper The Guardian and from the 3 million records of the British National Bibliography.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 69-79
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1418116
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1418116
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:69-79
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Maria Michela Dickson
Author-X-Name-First: Maria Michela
Author-X-Name-Last: Dickson
Author-Name: Anton Grafström
Author-X-Name-First: Anton
Author-X-Name-Last: Grafström
Author-Name: Diego Giuliani
Author-X-Name-First: Diego
Author-X-Name-Last: Giuliani
Author-Name: Giuseppe Espa
Author-X-Name-First: Giuseppe
Author-X-Name-Last: Espa
Title: Efficiency and feasibility of sampling schemes in establishment surveys
Abstract:
When conducting firm-level surveys, a relevant aspect in sampling design is to guarantee that the selected sample of business units is representative of the population. Stratified sampling design is used to obtain a representative sample. However, stratification of the main characteristics of establishments may not always be computationally feasible, due to the high number of small and empty strata occurring when the population is highly stratified. A simulation with common sampling designs allows the comparison of the local pivotal method and spatially correlated Poisson sampling in terms of spatial balance and efficiency in estimation. These spatial designs are efficient, whereas stratification is no longer feasible.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 114-122
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553411
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553411
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:114-122
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alessandra Righi
Author-X-Name-First: Alessandra
Author-X-Name-Last: Righi
Title: Assessing migration through social media: a review
Abstract:
Social media can be used not only for evaluating migration flows almost in real time and the degree of integration in the destination countries but also for the understanding of public opinion sentiment about immigration. Experiences based on scraping social media are reviewed, and the use of geo-located data and advertising platforms turns out to be the most promising opportunities supplied by these sources. The current challenge is to measure the sentiment of Italian-speaking twitterers toward migration.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 80-91
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1565271
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1565271
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:80-91
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Enrica Amaturo
Author-X-Name-First: Enrica
Author-X-Name-Last: Amaturo
Author-Name: Biagio Aragona
Author-X-Name-First: Biagio
Author-X-Name-Last: Aragona
Title: Methods for big data in social sciences
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 65-68
Issue: 2
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1597577
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1597577
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:2:p:65-68
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Enrico Fabrizi
Author-X-Name-First: Enrico
Author-X-Name-Last: Fabrizi
Author-Name: Tomasz Ża̧dło
Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz
Author-X-Name-Last: Ża̧dło
Title: Survey sampling and small-area estimation
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-183
Issue: 4
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1507580
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1507580
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:181-183
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mauno Keto
Author-X-Name-First: Mauno
Author-X-Name-Last: Keto
Author-Name: Jussi Hakanen
Author-X-Name-First: Jussi
Author-X-Name-Last: Hakanen
Author-Name: Erkki Pahkinen
Author-X-Name-First: Erkki
Author-X-Name-Last: Pahkinen
Title: Register data in sample allocations for small-area estimation
Abstract:
The inadequate control of sample sizes in surveys using stratified sampling and area estimation may occur when the overall sample size is small or auxiliary information is insufficiently used. Very small sample sizes are possible for some areas. The proposed allocation based on multi-objective optimization uses a small-area model and estimation method and semi-collected empirical data annually collected empirical data. The assessment of its performance at the area and at the population levels is based on design-based sample simulations. Five previously developed allocations serve as references. The model-based estimator is more accurate than the design-based Horvitz–Thompson estimator and the model-assisted regression estimator. Two trade-off issues are between accuracy and bias and between the area- and the population-level qualities of estimates. If the survey uses model-based estimation, the sampling design should incorporate the underlying model and the estimation method.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 184-214
Issue: 4
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1437318
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1437318
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:184-214
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tomasz Bąk
Author-X-Name-First: Tomasz
Author-X-Name-Last: Bąk
Title: Drawn-by-drawn sampling based on neighborhood matrix
Abstract:
In drawn-by-drawn sampling, elements are drawn one after another and drawing can be stopped at any time. It leads to ordered samples. This method is convenient to obtain spatially balanced samples. However, sampling may not need to be unordered. This is the case of Wywiał sampling designs, which are based on a neighborhood matrix. Their adaptation to drawn-by-drawn sampling has the merit to be of simple use. It requires defining the sampling plan, the sampling scheme, and the first-order probabilities of inclusion. Application to a sampling from a grid of squares.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 215-226
Issue: 4
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1508189
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1508189
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:215-226
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Barbara Kowalczyk
Author-X-Name-First: Barbara
Author-X-Name-Last: Kowalczyk
Author-Name: Dorota Juszczak
Author-X-Name-First: Dorota
Author-X-Name-Last: Juszczak
Title: Composite estimator based on the recursive ratio for an arbitrary rotation scheme
Abstract:
Partial replacement of units in repeated surveys increases the efficiency of the estimation of the population mean. The composite estimator with constant coefficients, based on the recursive ratio, is useful in surveys with many variables. The mean square error of this estimator is obtained for an arbitrary rotation scheme. Comparisons indicate that it is more efficient than the sample mean for various rotation schemes. Simulations show that it performs better than other composite estimators in surveys with many variables changing differently over time.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 227-247
Issue: 4
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477385
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477385
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:227-247
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Correction
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 248-248
Issue: 4
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1511136
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1511136
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:4:p:248-248
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xiaojie Mu
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaojie
Author-X-Name-Last: Mu
Author-Name: Qimin Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Qimin
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Author-Name: Han Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Han
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Xining Li
Author-X-Name-First: Xining
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Title: Ergodicity and extinction in a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with influence of information
Abstract:
An epidemic model with stochastic contact transmission coefficient takes into account white noise and the influence of information. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the disease are expressed. The existence of a stationary distribution and the ergodic property are proved. The peak of infected population can be decreased by information. The analytical results are showed by simulations and the influence of white noise and information on the dynamics of epidemics are evaluated.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-26
Issue: 1
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493869
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493869
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:1-26
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Akbar Abravesh
Author-X-Name-First: Akbar
Author-X-Name-Last: Abravesh
Author-Name: Masoud Ganji
Author-X-Name-First: Masoud
Author-X-Name-Last: Ganji
Author-Name: Behdad Mostafaiy
Author-X-Name-First: Behdad
Author-X-Name-Last: Mostafaiy
Title: Estimation of reliability P(X > Y) for distributions with power hazard function based on upper record values
Abstract:
For $$X$$X and $$Y$$Y two independent random variables, upper values from the family of distributions with power hazard function are used to obtain the maximum likelihood and the Bayes estimators of $$P(X \gt Y)$$P(X>Y). The Bayes estimator relies on the squared-error loss function given informative and non-informative prior distributions. It is obtained by either Lindley’s approximation, Tierney and Kadane’s method, or Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation and Tierney and Kadane’s method have smaller mean squared errors than both Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimator. The application for lung cancer data shows that the mortality risk by lung cancer is 40% lower for men than for women. The application for lifetimes of steels shows that steel specimen are 40% more likely to break up under 35.0 stress amplitude than under 35.5.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 27-46
Issue: 1
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493867
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493867
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:27-46
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elena Chernousova
Author-X-Name-First: Elena
Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova
Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov
Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav
Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov
Title: Steady state and intermittency in the critical branching random walk with arbitrary total number of offspring
Abstract:
For the critical branching random walk on the lattice $${{\mathbb Z}^d}$$Zd, in the case of an arbitrary total number of produced offspring spreading on the lattice from the parental particle, the existence of a limit distribution (which corresponds to a steady state (or statistical equilibrium)) of the population is proved. If the second factorial moment of the total number of offspring is much larger than the square of the first factorial moment, then the limit particle field displays strong deviations from the uniformity: this is intermittency.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 47-63
Issue: 1
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1493868
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1493868
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:1:p:47-63
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pierre Bernhard
Author-X-Name-First: Pierre
Author-X-Name-Last: Bernhard
Author-Name: Marc Deschamps
Author-X-Name-First: Marc
Author-X-Name-Last: Deschamps
Title: Kalman 1960: The birth of modern system theory
Abstract:
Rudolph E. Kalman is mainly known for the Kalman filter, first published in 1960. In this year, he published two equally important contributions, one about linear state space system theory and the other about linear quadratic optimal control theory. These three domains are intertwined in the later theory of linear quadratic Gaussian control. An extended version of linear quadratic optimal control is put into practice in an example of cooperation in population ecology.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-145
Issue: 3
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553393
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553393
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:123-145
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Natali Hritonenko
Author-X-Name-First: Natali
Author-X-Name-Last: Hritonenko
Author-Name: Yuri Yatsenko
Author-X-Name-First: Yuri
Author-X-Name-Last: Yatsenko
Author-Name: Askar Boranbayev
Author-X-Name-First: Askar
Author-X-Name-Last: Boranbayev
Title: Generalized functions in the qualitative study of heterogeneous populations
Abstract:
Solutions from non-smooth functional spaces, including generalized functions and measures, often appear in optimal control theory but are avoided in applications. They are however useful in finding the optimal distribution of investments into new and old capital equipment under improving technology. The corresponding economic problem involves optimal control in a linear Lotka-McKendrik model of age-structured population. Optimal solutions do not exist in normal functional classes and, so, generalized functions are used to construct the solutions. The optimal age-distributions of capital and investment include the Dirac function and are interpreted as instantaneous investment in equipment of certain age. A numerical simulation completes the presentation of the dynamics.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 146-162
Issue: 3
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553395
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553395
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:146-162
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Iram Saleem
Author-X-Name-First: Iram
Author-X-Name-Last: Saleem
Author-Name: Aamir Sanaullah
Author-X-Name-First: Aamir
Author-X-Name-Last: Sanaullah
Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif
Title: Double-sampling regression-cum-exponential estimator of the mean of a sensitive variable
Abstract:
A flexible scrambled response model using a randomization device for quantitative sensitive data is used to evaluate the protection of respondents’ privacy. A double-sampling regression-cum-exponential estimator is used to estimate the mean of a sensitive variable using the mean of a nonsensitive auxiliary variable under scrambled response. The expected bias, the expected mean square error, and the minimum mean square error of this exponential-type estimator are expressed. Simulations and empirical results show that the proposed estimator under scrambled response model has a lower mean square error and a lower bias than the ratio and the exponential estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 163-182
Issue: 3
Volume: 26
Year: 2019
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1565273
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1565273
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:163-182
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Joel E. Cohen
Author-X-Name-First: Joel E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Cohen
Author-Name: Daniel Courgeau
Author-X-Name-First: Daniel
Author-X-Name-Last: Courgeau
Title: Modeling distances between humans using Taylor’s law and geometric probability
Abstract:
Taylor’s law states that the variance of the distribution of distance between two randomly chosen individuals is a power function of the mean distance. It applies to the distances between two randomly chosen points in various geometric shapes, subject to a few conditions. In Réunion Island and metropolitan France, at some spatial scales, the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances are predicted accurately by the theoretical frequency distributions of inter-point distances in models of geometric probability under a uniform distribution of points. When these models fail to predict the empirical frequency distributions of inter-individual distances, they provide baselines against which to highlight the spatial distribution of population concentrations.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 197-218
Issue: 4
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1289049
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1289049
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:197-218
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Demongeot
Author-X-Name-First: Jacques
Author-X-Name-Last: Demongeot
Author-Name: Mariem Jelassi
Author-X-Name-First: Mariem
Author-X-Name-Last: Jelassi
Author-Name: Carla Taramasco
Author-X-Name-First: Carla
Author-X-Name-Last: Taramasco
Title: From susceptibility to frailty in social networks: The case of obesity
Abstract:
The obesity pandemic is represented by a discrete-time Hopfield Boolean network embedded in continuous-time population dynamics. The influence of the social environment passes through a system of differential equations, whereby obesity spreads by imitation of the most influential neighbors, those who have the highest centrality indices in the network. This property is called “homophily.” Susceptibility and frailty are redefined using network properties. Projections of the spread of obesity are validated on data collected in a French high school.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 219-245
Issue: 4
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348718
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348718
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:219-245
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Nina Daskalova
Author-X-Name-First: Nina
Author-X-Name-Last: Daskalova
Title: Expectation maximization estimates of the offspring probabilities in a class of multitype branching processes with binary family trees
Abstract:
When proliferating cells are counted in several independent colonies at some time points, the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the multitype branching process are obtained trough an expectation maximization algorithm. In the case of an offspring distribution governed by a Markov branching process with binary family trees, this method, relying then on a partial knowledge of the tree, yields the same estimates as those computed with the complete knowledge of the tree.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 246-256
Issue: 4
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1348723
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1348723
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:246-256
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial Board EOV
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: ebi-ebi
Issue: 4
Volume: 24
Year: 2017
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2017.1411084
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2017.1411084
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:ebi-ebi
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: The Editors
Title: Editorial board
Journal:
Pages: ebi-ebii
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525502
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525502
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:ebi-ebii
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marcia de Castro
Author-X-Name-First: Marcia
Author-X-Name-Last: de Castro
Title: Changes in mortality and life expectancy: Some methodological issues
Abstract: Measuring and explaining the effects of mortality changes on life expectancy has been discussed for the past three decades. Different approaches have been proposed using discrete or continuous methods. Two basic ideas underlie these approaches. The first compares two different mortality schedules and quantifies the contribution of each age group to the increase in life expectancy. The second analyzes how the progress in the mortality schedule translates into progress in life expectancy. This paper discusses and compares the approaches proposed by the United Nations (1982), Arriaga (1984), Pollard (1982, 1988), and Vaupel (1986), identifying their problems, advantages, and the types of situations where each one can best be applied.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 181-208
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525503
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525503
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:181-208
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: T. P. Hutchinson
Author-X-Name-First: T. P.
Author-X-Name-Last: Hutchinson
Title: Calculation of the expected lifetime lost due to an extra risk
Abstract: Methods are given for estimating the average years of life lost when a person is discovered to be at risk from an extra hazard. The methods use the probability per year of the extra risk striking, and the mean and standard deviation of lifetime in the absence of the risk. The formulae are simple enough that only a hand‐held calculator is needed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 209-216
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525504
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525504
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:209-216
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrei Rogers
Author-X-Name-First: Andrei
Author-X-Name-Last: Rogers
Author-Name: Frans Willekens
Author-X-Name-First: Frans
Author-X-Name-Last: Willekens
Author-Name: And Raymer
Author-X-Name-First: And
Author-X-Name-Last: Raymer
Title: Modeling interregional migration flows: Continuity and change
Abstract: This paper addresses the question of how to formally represent the spatial structure of an observed origin‐destination‐specific pattern of interregional migration flows. Such a representation allows an analyst to compare the spatial structures of different migration regimes and contrast their changes over time. It also facilitates the indirect estimation of migration flows, in the absence of such data, by allowing the analyst to impose a particular age or spatial structure when observed flow data are inadequate, partial, or completely nonexistent. In this paper, we focus on the level and allocation aspects (or the generation and distribution components) of age‐specific interregional migration flows. We find that over time these flows exhibit strong regularities that can be captured by generalized linear models, which can then be used in situations where data are inadequate or missing to indirectly estimate interregional migration patterns.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 231-263
Issue: 3-4
Volume: 9
Year: 2001
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480109525506
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480109525506
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:9:y:2001:i:3-4:p:231-263
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Stephen A. Matthews
Author-X-Name-First: Stephen A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Matthews
Title: Methods and applications in spatial demography: 2
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-7
Issue: 1
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1715123
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1715123
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:1-7
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gillian Dunn
Author-X-Name-First: Gillian
Author-X-Name-Last: Dunn
Author-Name: Glen D. Johnson
Author-X-Name-First: Glen D.
Author-X-Name-Last: Johnson
Author-Name: Deborah L. Balk
Author-X-Name-First: Deborah L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Balk
Author-Name: Grace Sembajwe
Author-X-Name-First: Grace
Author-X-Name-Last: Sembajwe
Title: Spatially varying relationships between risk factors and child diarrhea in West Africa, 2008-2013
Abstract:
Diarrhea is a major contributor to child morbidity and mortality in West Africa. Non-spatial regression and geographically weighted Poisson regression applied to data from 10 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in West Africa from 2008 to 2013 show that water source, toilet type, mother’s education, latitude, temperature, rainfall, altitude, and population density influence the risk of diarrhea. The risk associated with these factors is dependent on location and may be higher or lower than the rest of the study area. Areas with increased relative risk for diarrhea include several urban centers, low-elevation areas (coastal and along rivers), remote areas such as western Mali, and conflict zones (northeast Nigeria).
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 8-33
Issue: 1
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1592638
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1592638
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:8-33
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Hongwei Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Hongwei
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Title: Prevalence of left-handedness in China 2011: small-area estimates
Abstract:
Nationally representative survey data and small-area estimation techniques are used to assess the geographic prevalence of left-handedness in China 2011. Measures of individuals’ handedness are their self-reported dominant hand and their hand grip strength, which yield four estimates of left-handed prevalence, and these statistics are recorded at the provincial level. These estimates concord with one another. There are several geographic clusters of high-prevalence rates of left-handers located in ethnic minority-designated autonomous areas or historically revolutionary base areas, which may reflect a deep-rooted sense of defiance to authorities and promote such cultural values as individual autonomy and equality among local people.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 34-45
Issue: 1
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553412
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553412
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:34-45
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zack W. Almquist
Author-X-Name-First: Zack W.
Author-X-Name-Last: Almquist
Author-Name: Nathaniel E. Helwig
Author-X-Name-First: Nathaniel E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Helwig
Author-Name: Yun You
Author-X-Name-First: Yun
Author-X-Name-Last: You
Title: Connecting Continuum of Care point-in-time homeless counts to United States Census areal units
Abstract:
In 2007, the Department of Housing and Urban Development initiated a point-in-time count of the homeless across the United States. The counts are administered by the Continuum of Care Program, which provides spatial and temporal data for the homeless population over the last decade. Unfortunately, this administrative spatial unit does not align with the more common areal units defined by the United States Census Bureau, which limits usability of these data. To unify these two areal units, spatial disaggregation, matching, and imputation allow for aligning Continuum of Care data with county data. The resulting county-level homeless counts for the years 2005 to 2017 are provided as an R package. The county-level data display more spatial precision and more temporal variation than the Continuum of Care-level data. Nonparametric regression analyses reveal that the spatiotemporal variation in the data can be well approximated by additive spatial and temporal effects at both the county and Continuum of Care level.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 46-58
Issue: 1
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1636574
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1636574
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:1:p:46-58
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andrius Čiginas
Author-X-Name-First: Andrius
Author-X-Name-Last: Čiginas
Author-Name: Dalius Pumputis
Author-X-Name-First: Dalius
Author-X-Name-Last: Pumputis
Title: Calibrated Edgeworth expansions of finite population L-statistics
Abstract:
A short Edgeworth expansion is approximated for the distribution function of a Studentized linear combination of order statistics computed on a random sample drawn without replacement from a finite population, and using auxiliary data available for the population units. Simulations show an improvement over the usual Gaussian approximation and previous empirical Edgeworth expansions. Naive synthetic estimates of the distribution function, based on the auxiliary data only, yield accurate results when the auxiliary variable is well correlated with the study variable.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 59-80
Issue: 2
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553408
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553408
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:59-80
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Garib N. Singh
Author-X-Name-First: Garib N.
Author-X-Name-Last: Singh
Author-Name: Surbhi Suman
Author-X-Name-First: Surbhi
Author-X-Name-Last: Suman
Author-Name: Chandraketu Singh
Author-X-Name-First: Chandraketu
Author-X-Name-Last: Singh
Title: Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in two-stage sampling using a randomized response model under Poisson distribution
Abstract:
Unbiased estimation procedures of the mean total number of persons with a rare sensitive attribute apply for a clustered population under two-stage and stratified two-stage sampling schemes. Randomized response model is used to obtain the estimators, when the parameter of an unrelated rare non-sensitive attribute is either known or unknown. The variances of the resultant estimators are derived and their unbiased estimates are expressed. Numerical comparisons show that dispersions in the estimates are lower than other contemporary estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 81-114
Issue: 2
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553404
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553404
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:81-114
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jeanne Prades
Author-X-Name-First: Jeanne
Author-X-Name-Last: Prades
Title: Constructions and uses of laïcité (French secularism) in French public discourses
Abstract:
Discourse analysis of six actors’ political lines, their conceptions, and their uses of French secularism (laïcité) between 2013 and 2018 shows that mobilization of laïcité as a value is correlated to the construction of Islam and Muslims as objects of security in France. Perception of military and identity insecurities goes along with mobilization of laïcité as a shield-value of the French Republic that manifests into the desire to reinterpret the French 1905 law on separation of the Churches and the State, in reaction to Muslim practices or religious symbols. Since 1989, laïcité as a value has emerged both as the socially accepted representation of French secularism and the privileged discursive response to contemporary identity and security challenges posed by Islam, while laïcité as a principle has appeared as a counter-discourse defending the liberal spirit of the 1905 law.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 115-137
Issue: 2
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 4
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553410
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553410
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:2:p:115-137
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Malay Ghosh
Author-X-Name-First: Malay
Author-X-Name-Last: Ghosh
Author-Name: Jiyoun Myung
Author-X-Name-First: Jiyoun
Author-X-Name-Last: Myung
Author-Name: Paduthol Godan Sankaran
Author-X-Name-First: Paduthol Godan
Author-X-Name-Last: Sankaran
Title: Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimation of the population median, with application in finite-population sampling
Abstract:
Nonparametric Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of the population median are provided under Dirichlet process priors. The finite-population sampling is used to estimate the finite-population median under Dirichlet process priors. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained from a frequentist perspective.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 159-167
Issue: 3
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1428469
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1428469
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:159-167
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: María Luz Gámiz
Author-X-Name-First: María Luz
Author-X-Name-Last: Gámiz
Author-Name: María Dolores Martinez-Miranda
Author-X-Name-First: María Dolores
Author-X-Name-Last: Martinez-Miranda
Author-Name: Rocío Raya-Miranda
Author-X-Name-First: Rocío
Author-X-Name-Last: Raya-Miranda
Title: Graphical goodness-of-fit test for mortality models
Abstract:
Candidate parametric mortality models are tested graphically. If the model is correct, the transformed data are distributed exponentially. The graphical test is based on scale and space inference. It involves smoothing of the hazard rate and simultaneous confidence intervals. It is applied to a frailty model used to set annuity reserves. Simulation and the comparison with other non-graphical tests shows that the graphical test helps localize discrepancies of empirical data with respect to the tested model.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-142
Issue: 3
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477381
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477381
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:123-142
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Pavel Polyakov
Author-X-Name-First: Pavel
Author-X-Name-Last: Polyakov
Title: Termination of the ice bucket challenge
Abstract:
The ice bucket challenge is a social game aimed at encouraging donations to the amyotrophic lateral sclerosis association. The rules imply that each participant challenges each recruited follower to dump a bucket of ice water on his or her head. The network of who has nominated whom has a tree structure. The short duration of the ice bucket challenge is explained by using the reproduction number $${R_0}$$R0
, under the assumption that the capacity to recruit followers varies with the participant. The epidemic lasts until the interruption of the transmission tree occurring well before the depletion of susceptible followers. Such a tree is reconstructed from publicly available contact data and the interest in this game.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 143-158
Issue: 3
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477384
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477384
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:143-158
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Morgan M. Millar
Author-X-Name-First: Morgan M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Millar
Author-Name: Patricia Schmuhl
Author-X-Name-First: Patricia
Author-X-Name-Last: Schmuhl
Author-Name: Kent Page
Author-X-Name-First: Kent
Author-X-Name-Last: Page
Author-Name: Andrea L. Genovesi
Author-X-Name-First: Andrea L.
Author-X-Name-Last: Genovesi
Author-Name: Michael Ely
Author-X-Name-First: Michael
Author-X-Name-Last: Ely
Author-Name: Craig Hemingway
Author-X-Name-First: Craig
Author-X-Name-Last: Hemingway
Author-Name: Lenora M. Olson
Author-X-Name-First: Lenora M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Olson
Title: Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods
Abstract:
The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 168-179
Issue: 3
Volume: 25
Year: 2018
Month: 7
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1477386
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1477386
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:25:y:2018:i:3:p:168-179
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xavier Bry
Author-X-Name-First: Xavier
Author-X-Name-Last: Bry
Author-Name: Théo Simac
Author-X-Name-First: Théo
Author-X-Name-Last: Simac
Author-Name: Salah Eddine El Ghachi
Author-X-Name-First: Salah Eddine
Author-X-Name-Last: El Ghachi
Author-Name: Philippe Antoine
Author-X-Name-First: Philippe
Author-X-Name-Last: Antoine
Title: Bridging data exploration and modeling in event-history analysis: the supervised-component Cox regression
Abstract:
In event-history analysis with many possibly collinear regressors, Cox’s proportional hazard model, like all generalized linear models, can fail to be identified. Dimension-reduction and regularization are therefore needed. Penalty-based methods such as the ridge and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) provide a regularized linear predictor, but fail to highlight the predictive structures. This is the gap filled by the supervised-component Cox regression (SCCoxR). Its principle is to compute a sequence of orthogonal explanatory components, which both rely on the strong correlation structures of regressors and optimize the goodness-of-fit of the model. One of its parameters tunes the balance between component strength and goodness of fit, thus bridging the gap between classical Cox regression with Cox regression on principal components. A second parameter allows the focus on subsets of highly correlated explanatory variables. A third parameter tunes the regularization of the model coefficients, leading to more robust estimates. Simulations show how to tune the parameters. The method is applied to the case study of polygamy in Dakar, Senegal.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 139-174
Issue: 3
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553413
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553413
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:139-174
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ayman Baklizi
Author-X-Name-First: Ayman
Author-X-Name-Last: Baklizi
Title: Interval estimation of quantiles and reliability in the two – parameter exponential distribution based on records
Abstract:
In the estimation, using confidence intervals, of quantiles and reliability of the two – parameter exponential distribution based on record data, a pivot is defined and its exact cumulative distribution function and probability density function are computed. Confidence intervals using critical values from the cumulative distribution function of the pivot are obtained. Applications to crushed rock sizes and concentration of Sulfur dioxide from Long Beach, California.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 175-183
Issue: 3
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553429
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553429
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:175-183
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Guihua Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Guihua
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Li Qi
Author-X-Name-First: Li
Author-X-Name-Last: Qi
Author-Name: Min Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Min
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Yingan Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Yingan
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Title: Triple-source estimator for estimating the net error in census coverage
Abstract:
The triple-source estimator avoids the correlation bias inherent in the double-source estimator, which has been a popular estimator of population size for assessing the quality of a census. The triple-source estimator relies on the census list, the quality-assessment survey list, and the administrative record list. It also provides an estimate of the net census coverage error. It is established in population strata of equal probability of being drawn and based on a sample. The triple-source estimator provides an unbiased estimate of the net error.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 184-198
Issue: 3
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2018.1553415
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2018.1553415
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:3:p:184-198
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elena Chernousova
Author-X-Name-First: Elena
Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova
Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv
Author-X-Name-First: Ostap
Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv
Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov
Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav
Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov
Title: Population model with immigration in continuous space
Abstract:
In a population model in continuous space, individuals evolve independently as branching random walks subject to immigration. If the underlying branching mechanism is subcritical, the model has a unique steady state for each value of the immigration intensity. Convergence to the equilibrium is exponentially fast. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior does not change under suitable perturbations of the main parameters of the model.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 199-215
Issue: 4
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626189
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626189
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:199-215
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Saurav Guha
Author-X-Name-First: Saurav
Author-X-Name-Last: Guha
Author-Name: Hukum Chandra
Author-X-Name-First: Hukum
Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra
Title: Improved chain-ratio type estimator for population total in double sampling
Abstract:
Chain-ratio estimators are often used to improve the efficiency of the estimation of the population total or the mean using two auxiliary variables, available in two different phases. An improved chain-ratio estimator for the population total based on double sampling is proposed when auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. The bias and the mean square error of this estimator are obtained for a large sample. Empirical evaluations using both model-based and design-based simulations show that the proposed estimator performs better than the ratio, the regression, and the difference estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 216-231
Issue: 4
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626635
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626635
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:216-231
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Chouaib Beldjoudi
Author-X-Name-First: Chouaib
Author-X-Name-Last: Beldjoudi
Author-Name: Tewfik Kernane
Author-X-Name-First: Tewfik
Author-X-Name-Last: Kernane
Author-Name: Hamid El Maroufy
Author-X-Name-First: Hamid
Author-X-Name-Last: El Maroufy
Title: Bayesian inference for a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic model with data augmentation
Abstract:
A Bayesian data-augmentation method allows estimating the parameters in a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model, which is formulated as a continuous-time Markov process and approximated by a diffusion process using the convergence of the master equation. The estimation was carried out with latent data points between every pair of observations simulated through the Euler-Maruyama scheme, which involves imputing the missing data in addition to the model parameters. The missing data and parameters are treated as random variables, and a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo algorithm updates the missing data and the parameter values. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed Markov-chain Monte-Carlo algorithm.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 232-258
Issue: 4
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1656491
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1656491
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:232-258
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Xiaoni Li
Author-X-Name-First: Xiaoni
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Xining Li
Author-X-Name-First: Xining
Author-X-Name-Last: Li
Author-Name: Qimin Zhang
Author-X-Name-First: Qimin
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang
Title: Time to extinction and stationary distribution of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with vaccination under Markov switching
Abstract:
A stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model with vaccination includes stochastic variation in its parameters. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and the existence of the stationary distribution of the population are proved.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 259-274
Issue: 4
Volume: 27
Year: 2020
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1626633
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1626633
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:27:y:2020:i:4:p:259-274
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Magdy E. El-Adll
Author-X-Name-First: Magdy E.
Author-X-Name-Last: El-Adll
Title: Inference for the two-parameter exponential distribution with generalized order statistics
Abstract:
Inferences about estimation and prediction of the two-parameter exponential distribution are based on generalized order statistics. Point and interval estimates are used for scale and location parameters. Unbiased point predictors and reconstructors are based upon pivotal quantities. The mean square error and Pitman’s measure help assess the closeness of estimators and predictors. Point estimators of scale and location parameters and point predictors of future observations are computed in the application of durations until remission of 20 leukemia patients and in the application until failure of air-conditioning systems.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-23
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1681187
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1681187
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:1-23
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Saurav Guha
Author-X-Name-First: Saurav
Author-X-Name-Last: Guha
Author-Name: Hukum Chandra
Author-X-Name-First: Hukum
Author-X-Name-Last: Chandra
Title: Improved estimation of finite population mean in two-phase sampling with subsampling of the nonrespondents
Abstract:
Improved chain-ratio estimators for the population mean based on two-phase sampling are proposed when the study variable and two auxiliary variables comprise non-response. Auxiliary information is available for the first variable and not available for the second variable. Their biases and mean square errors are estimated under large sample approximation. Their efficiencies are compared with Hansen and Hurwitz’s estimator, the ratio and regression estimators for a single auxiliary variable, and Singh and Kumar’s estimators for two auxiliary variables. Empirical evaluations using both model-based and design-based simulations show that these estimators perform better than Hansen and Hurwitz’s estimator, the ratio and the regression estimators, and Singh and Kumar’s estimator.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 24-44
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2019.1694325
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2019.1694325
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:24-44
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Guihua Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Guihua
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Jinpen Liao
Author-X-Name-First: Jinpen
Author-X-Name-Last: Liao
Author-Name: Jianfan Peng
Author-X-Name-First: Jianfan
Author-X-Name-Last: Peng
Author-Name: Ting Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Ting
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Shushan Fan
Author-X-Name-First: Shushan
Author-X-Name-Last: Fan
Author-Name: Baohong Ye
Author-X-Name-First: Baohong
Author-X-Name-Last: Ye
Title: Estimation of census content error
Abstract:
The ratio content error estimators recommended by the United Nations Statistics Division for censuses do not cover content errors resulting from erroneous enumerations and omissions; thus they underestimate content errors. The “complete content error estimator” covers all content errors and is unbiased. It applies to any category of population.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 45-60
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1738802
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1738802
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:45-60
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Younga Kim
Author-X-Name-First: Younga
Author-X-Name-Last: Kim
Title: 아픔이 길이 되려면: 정의로운 건강을 찾아 질병의 사회적 책임을 묻다 [When Pain Should be the Way: Social Responsibility Committed to the Pursuit of Righteous Health]
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 61-62
Issue: 1
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1872944
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1872944
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:1:p:61-62
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elena Chernousova
Author-X-Name-First: Elena
Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova
Author-Name: Yaqin Feng
Author-X-Name-First: Yaqin
Author-X-Name-Last: Feng
Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv
Author-X-Name-First: Ostap
Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv
Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov
Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav
Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov
Author-Name: Joseph Whitmeyer
Author-X-Name-First: Joseph
Author-X-Name-Last: Whitmeyer
Title: Steady states of lattice population models with immigration
Abstract:
In a lattice population model where individuals evolve as subcritical branching random walks subject to external immigration, the cumulants are estimated and the existence of the steady state is proved. The resulting dynamics are Lyapunov stable in that their qualitative behavior does not change under suitable perturbations of the main parameters of the model. An explicit formula of the limit distribution is derived in the solvable case of no birth. Monte Carlo simulation shows the limit distribution in the solvable case.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 63-80
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767411
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767411
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:63-80
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Yibeltal Adane Terefe
Author-X-Name-First: Yibeltal Adane
Author-X-Name-Last: Terefe
Title: A sex-structured model for the transmission of trichomoniasis with possible reinfection
Abstract:
Trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted disease caused by an infection from the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis. A model of its transmission shows a backward bifurcation when the basic reproduction number $${{\mathcal R}_0}$$R0 is less than one. A stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium with the consequence that the disease may invade the population even when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \lt 1$$R0<1. The backward bifurcation is due to reinfection among the people who have recovered. In the absence of a backward bifurcation and when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \lt 1$$R0<1, the disease-free equilibrium has global asymptotic stability. In the absence of reinfection, the model has a unique global asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when $${{\mathcal R}_0} \gt 1$$R0>1. Contact rates are the major parameters in the persistence of the disease, compared to rates of recovery after treatment, infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals, and rates of reinfection.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 81-103
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767416
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767416
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:81-103
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tolga Zaman
Author-X-Name-First: Tolga
Author-X-Name-Last: Zaman
Title: An efficient exponential estimator of the mean under stratified random sampling
Abstract:
Stratification of population is a probability sampling design used to increase the precision of estimation. An efficient exponential ratio estimator allows estimating the population mean in stratified random sampling using an auxiliary variable. Its expected bias, expected mean square error, and minimum mean square error are expressed. The conditions for which the estimator is more efficient are obtained. The proposed estimators under stratified random sampling have a lower mean square error than the ratio and the exponential estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 104-121
Issue: 2
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767420
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767420
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:2:p:104-121
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ekaterina Vl. Bulinskaya
Author-X-Name-First: Ekaterina Vl.
Author-X-Name-Last: Bulinskaya
Title: Catalytic branching random walk with semi-exponential increments
Abstract:
In a catalytic branching random walk on a multidimensional lattice, with arbitrary finite total number of catalysts, in supercritical regime, when the vector coordinates of the random walk jump are assumed independent (or close to independent) to one another and have semi-exponential distributions, a limit theorem provides the almost sure normalized locations of the particles at the boundary between populated and empty areas. Contrary to the case of random walk increments with light distribution tails, the normalizing factor grows faster than linearly over time. The limit shape of the front in the case of semi-exponential tails is no longer convex, as it is in the case of light tails.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 123-153
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767424
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767424
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:123-153
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Usman Shahzad
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad
Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Name: Evrim Oral
Author-X-Name-First: Evrim
Author-X-Name-Last: Oral
Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif
Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie
Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah
Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie
Title: Estimation of the population mean by successive use of an auxiliary variable in median ranked set sampling
Abstract:
Median ranked set sampling is a sampling procedure used to estimate the population mean when the variable of interest is difficult or costly to measure. Two estimators for the population mean based on the minimum and maximum values of the auxiliary variable are built upon a successive use of ranks, second raw moments, and the linearly transformed auxiliary variable. The biases and the mean square errors of the estimators are derived. The proposed estimators under median ranked set sampling have higher efficiencies than the ratio, regression, difference-cum-ratio, and exponential estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 176-199
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1816703
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1816703
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:176-199
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Haroon M. Barakat
Author-X-Name-First: Haroon M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Barakat
Author-Name: El-Sayed M. Nigm
Author-X-Name-First: El-Sayed M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Nigm
Author-Name: Islam A. Husseiny
Author-X-Name-First: Islam A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Husseiny
Title: Measures of information in order statistics and their concomitants for the single iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution
Abstract:
The Fisher information matrix related to an order statistic and its concomitant used to order a bivariate random sample are obtained in the case of the shape-parameter vector of an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. They contain information conveyed by singly or multiply censored bivariate samples drawn from an iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution. Fisher information is computed for the mean of the exponential distribution in the concomitant of an order statistic. Shannon entropy in the order statistics and their concomitants based on the iterated Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate distribution are derived.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 154-175
Issue: 3
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1767926
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1767926
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:154-175
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Guihua Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Guihua
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Shushan Fan
Author-X-Name-First: Shushan
Author-X-Name-Last: Fan
Author-Name: Jiwei Su
Author-X-Name-First: Jiwei
Author-X-Name-Last: Su
Author-Name: Lujie Chi
Author-X-Name-First: Lujie
Author-X-Name-Last: Chi
Author-Name: Jing Zhou
Author-X-Name-First: Jing
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou
Title: Estimation of erroneous enumerations in the census
Abstract:
Erroneous enumerations in the census include multiple enumerations and other errors. The linear estimator for estimating these errors currently used in several countries leads to underestimation when the sample used for the estimation comprises few of these errors. The “ratio estimator” of the total number of erroneous enumerations overcomes this difficulty. This is the one used by China for the 2020 census. Empirical analysis shows that the ratio estimator provides a smaller sampling error than the linear estimator.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 243-258
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1855021
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1855021
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:243-258
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ali Akbar Jafari
Author-X-Name-First: Ali Akbar
Author-X-Name-Last: Jafari
Author-Name: Saeede Bafekri
Author-X-Name-First: Saeede
Author-X-Name-Last: Bafekri
Title: Inference on stress-strength reliability for the two-parameter exponential distribution based on generalized order statistics
Abstract:
Stress-strength reliability is a measure to compare the lifetimes of two systems. It is inferred for the two-parameter exponential distribution using generalized order statistics first without constraint on the location and scale parameters, second when the scale parameters are equal. A generalized confidence interval, bootstrap confidence intervals, a Bayesian interval, and a highest posterior density interval are computed for the stress-strength parameter. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that generalized confidence intervals provide more accurate average lengths of confidence intervals and higher probabilities to contain the true value of the parameter. Application: Confidence intervals for the time to remission of 20 leukemic patients treated with one of two drugs are approximately the same in most generalized statistical models. In addition, the time to remission for patients with the first drug is tested to be shorter than for patients with the second drug.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 201-227
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1872230
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1872230
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:201-227
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mohamed El Fatini
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed
Author-X-Name-Last: El Fatini
Author-Name: Mohamed El Khalifi
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed
Author-X-Name-Last: El Khalifi
Author-Name: Richard Gerlach
Author-X-Name-First: Richard
Author-X-Name-Last: Gerlach
Author-Name: Roger Pettersson
Author-X-Name-First: Roger
Author-X-Name-Last: Pettersson
Title: Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy
Abstract:
In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes’ theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 228-242
Issue: 4
Volume: 28
Year: 2021
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:28:y:2021:i:4:p:228-242
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato
Author-X-Name-First: Alessia
Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato
Author-Name: Federico Benassi
Author-X-Name-First: Federico
Author-X-Name-Last: Benassi
Title: World population densities: convergence, stability, or divergence?
Abstract:
Taylor’s law states that the variance of population density in a given set of areas is a power function of its mean. When the exponent is equal to 2, the distribution of population densities between areas remains unchanged; when it is less than 2, the distribution converges toward the uniform distribution; when it is greater than 2, the densities become increasingly different from each other over time. The exponent takes the value 2 for East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia. It takes a value greater than 2 for sub-Saharan Africa because the ongoing demographic transition and intense urbanization are redistributing the population over the territories. The exponent is lower than 2 for the other regions of the world, which have completed their demographic transition and where the rural exodus has been completed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 17-30
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1827854
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2020.1827854
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:17-30
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Li Qi
Author-X-Name-First: Li
Author-X-Name-Last: Qi
Author-Name: Min Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Min
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Lujie Chi
Author-X-Name-First: Lujie
Author-X-Name-Last: Chi
Author-Name: Jinpen Liao
Author-X-Name-First: Jinpen
Author-X-Name-Last: Liao
Title: Estimated total number of second children based on three sources: the case of the city of Chengdu, Sichuan, China, for the year 2018
Abstract:
The total number of registered second children may be underestimated due to repetitions, omissions, and counting errors. The three-source estimator provides a more accurate value. It is based on the household registration list, a sample survey list, and the hospital birth list. It avoids the correlation bias inherent in the estimator based on a sample survey and household registration or hospital births. Its expression is adapted to the estimation of the total number of second children. In the case of Chengdu, it allows for estimating the total number of second children at 99,633, which is substantially higher than the reported number of 96,105 obtained by counting registrations alone.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-16
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1915638
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1915638
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:1-16
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Usman Shahzad
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad
Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie
Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah
Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie
Author-Name: Nursel Koyuncu
Author-X-Name-First: Nursel
Author-X-Name-Last: Koyuncu
Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif
Title: Variance estimation based on L-moments and auxiliary information
Abstract:
The presence of extreme values in a data set reduces the efficiency of variance estimators. L-moments are based on the ordered form of a random variable to estimate the variance of the population. The two variance estimators are used for calibration to a stratified random sampling design and relying on an auxiliary variable. The proposed estimators use the properties of L-moments, such as the L-mean, also called L-location, the L-standard deviation, also called L-scaling, and the L-coefficient of variation, which is a measure of variation. The use of these properties allows for providing better estimators. A simulation proves the better efficiency of these estimators.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 31-46
Issue: 1
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1949923
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1949923
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:1:p:31-46
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ezra Gayawan
Author-X-Name-First: Ezra
Author-X-Name-Last: Gayawan
Author-Name: Olamide Seyi Orunmoluyi
Author-X-Name-First: Olamide Seyi
Author-X-Name-Last: Orunmoluyi
Author-Name: Oyelola A. Adegboye
Author-X-Name-First: Oyelola A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Adegboye
Title: Geostatistical patterns of comorbidity of diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and stunting among under-five children in Nigeria
Abstract:
Among children under five in Nigeria, in the year 2018, the prevalence of diarrhea was 13%, that of acute respiratory infections 3%, and that of stunting 37%. A shared-component model highlights geographic variations in the comorbidities of these diseases. The data are from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The majority of states in northern Nigeria presented clusters of higher risk for comorbidities of any pair of the three diseases. Compared with mothers with primary education or less, mothers with secondary education were 1.4 times less likely to have two or three of these diseases at the same time, and women with tertiary education 2.0 times less. Compared to childless women of the same age, mothers were 1.6 times less when aged 20–29, 1.9 times less when aged 30–39, and 2.0 times less when aged 40–49. Access to a protected water source reduced the risk by a factor of 1.3. Girls under age five were 1.2 times less likely than boys of that age to have two or three of these diseases at the same time. This factor was the same for breastfed children compared to those who were not breastfed.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 58-72
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1942654
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1942654
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:58-72
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Igor Lazov
Author-X-Name-First: Igor
Author-X-Name-Last: Lazov
Author-Name: Petar Lazov
Author-X-Name-First: Petar
Author-X-Name-Last: Lazov
Title: Entropy-based estimation of the birth-death ratio
Abstract:
A population is modeled by a birth-death process in a finite state space. Its stationary distribution is indexed by its birth-death ratio. A sample of values taken by the population size has an elastic sample mean (mean of the observations), an additional sample mean (mean of the logarithms of the observations transformed by a given function), and a synchronizing sample mean (combination of the previous means). When the last two means are zero, then, by definition, information is linear in population size. This is only the case when the population size is geometrically distributed. Equalizing the entropy of a distribution to the entropy calculated on any sample involves the three sample means and allows for estimating the birth-death ratio. Only in the case of information linear in population size, this procedure reduces to maximum likelihood estimation, which involves only the elastic sample mean. The procedure is demonstrated on information that is no longer linear in population size, such as a binomial distribution of population size, where the last two means are not zero, but just equal, and a Pascal distribution and a Poisson distribution, where the last two means are neither zero nor equal.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-94
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1988351
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1988351
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:73-94
Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zofia Mielecka-Kubień
Author-X-Name-First: Zofia
Author-X-Name-Last: Mielecka-Kubień
Author-Name: Mariusz Toniszewski
Author-X-Name-First: Mariusz
Author-X-Name-Last: Toniszewski
Title: Estimation of illicit drug use among high school students in the Silesian voivodship (Poland) with the use of the randomized response technique
Abstract:
The prevalence of illicit drug use among high school students living in the Silesian voivodship (Poland) is estimated using either the random response techniques of forced response design or the Liu-Chow method. Respondents answer a sensitive question only with a certain probability, thus ensuring anonymity. These methods provide correct estimates of prevalence, unlike interviews based on anonymous questionnaires, which can lead to underestimate the prevalence. Compared with those obtained with anonymous questionnaires, the results obtained with the forced response method are that 10.7 times more high school students used the new psychoactive substances, 6.0 times more amphetamines, methamphetamines, and others, 3.1 times more heroin or morphine, and 1.6 times more marijuana or hashish. The Liu-Chow method provides an estimate of 10.7% of respondents who reported using new psychoactive substances, while the estimate by the anonymous questionnaire is only 1.5%. In the case of marijuana or hashish, the Liu-Chow method gives an estimate of 37.0% of users, while the estimate with anonymous questionnaires is only 22.0%.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 47-57
Issue: 2
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1893009
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1893009
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:2:p:47-57
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# input file: catalog-resolver1775570553311997666.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004
Author-Name: Islam M. Elbaz
Author-X-Name-First: Islam M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Elbaz
Title: Reduced oviposition period promotes blowfly population extinction in Nicholson’s model
Abstract:
Blowflies use open wounds or the accumulation of feces or urine in wool to lay their eggs. The larvae that emerge cause lesions in the host sheep, which can lead to death. They are found in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Nicholson’s model describes the population dynamics of the Australian blowfly (Lucilia Cuprina). It incorporates environmental variation. The extinction of these flies depends on the time to oviposition and the time between generations. The Lyapunov function, which is positive with a negative derivative, provides the condition for the stability of the equilibrium point: the oviposition period must be sufficiently short, because the shorter it is, the more it favors the extinction of the species. The zero solution is the only equilibrium point, synonymous with the extinction of the population. Another species of blowfly, Lucilia Sericata, also attacks sheep in Australia. Both blowflies are ectoparasites of warm-blooded vertebrates, particularly domestic sheep. These two blowflies are related to share same mitochondrial DNA sequences, although the two species are distinct. Presumably to avoid competition between them. the egg-laying time of each species does not occur at the same time of year: L. Sericata prefers warmer months, thus in summer, while L. Cuprina is mainly active in autumn. Laying of eggs in different months allows avoiding competition between these species. This also binds them together. A sufficiently small egg-laying delay then leads to the rapid extinction of both blowfly populations, provided they do not adapt.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 158-171
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2051367
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2051367
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:158-171
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# input file: catalog-resolver7911635046989533208.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004
Author-Name: Hanis Nasir
Author-X-Name-First: Hanis
Author-X-Name-Last: Nasir
Author-Name: Auni Aslah Mat Daud
Author-X-Name-First: Auni Aslah
Author-X-Name-Last: Mat Daud
Title: Population models of diabetes mellitus by ordinary differential equations: a review
Abstract:
Population models of diabetes using ordinary differential equations are reviewed. They are refined by incorporating non-diabetics, prediabetics, low awareness prediabetics, awareness prediabetics, and awareness programs. However, they may involve products and fractions that do not reflect what is known about reality or ignore the presence of time lags in the development of diabetes. No model takes into account the limited medical treatments considered. This review shows the need to consider finer specifications of interactions, time delays, and budget constraints in epidemiological modeling of diabetes.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 95-127
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1959817
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1959817
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:95-127
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# input file: catalog-resolver1704847622881012368.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220713T202513 git hash: 99d3863004
Author-Name: Branda Goncalves
Author-X-Name-First: Branda
Author-X-Name-Last: Goncalves
Author-Name: Thiery E. Huillet
Author-X-Name-First: Thiery E.
Author-X-Name-Last: Huillet
Title: Keeping random walks safe from extinction and overpopulation in the presence of life-taking disasters
Abstract:
Recurrence and transience conditions are made explicit in discrete-time Markov chain population models for which random stationary growth alternates with disastrous random life-taking events. These events either have moderate stationary magnitudes or lead to an abrupt population decline. The probability of their occurrence may or may not depend on the population size. These conditions are based on the existence or not of a “weak” carrying capacity, where “weak” means that the carrying capacity can be exceeded, temporarily. In this framework, the population is threatened with extinction, an event whose probability is expressed, as well as the law of the time remaining until this deadline. On the other hand, the population is also threatened by overpopulation, an event whose time to reach a given threshold is expressed, as well as the difference between the population size and the carrying capacity. The theory is that of extreme values for Markov chains and is based on the control of the spectral properties of the northwest truncation of the transition matrix of the original Markov chain with life-taking disasters. The article presents an extension to the case where the process of life-taking disasters is no longer geometric and to the case where the probability of occurrence of a disaster depends on the population size. Both the time to extinction and the time to a given threshold have geometrically decaying distribution tails. The use of the extremal Markov chain in the calculation of the time to overpopulation is innovative.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 128-157
Issue: 3
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1976476
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1976476
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:3:p:128-157
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# input file: GMPS_A_1997466_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Kanisa Chodjuntug
Author-X-Name-First: Kanisa
Author-X-Name-Last: Chodjuntug
Author-Name: Nuanpan Lawson
Author-X-Name-First: Nuanpan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lawson
Title: Imputation for estimating the population mean in the presence of nonresponse, with application to fine particle density in Bangkok
Abstract:
Air pollution in Bangkok, Thailand, is mainly due to fine particles emitted in exhaust gases. However, many data on fine particle concentrations are missing, a fact which may bias the statistics. Exponential-type imputation minimizing the mean square error allows for estimating the missing values of these concentrations and provides an estimate with smaller mean square error of the mean concentration levels. The bias and mean square error of the proposed estimator are calculated. Simulation shows that the relative efficiency is 5% higher up to 50 observations, 12% higher for 100 observations, and 25% higher for 200 observations. Application to the measurement of fine particle concentration in Bangkok yields a mean square error of 0.73 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 47.40 micrograms per cubic meter, while the mean square error by the best alternative estimator selected is 0.90 micrograms per cubic meter squared, for a mean level of 48.20 micrograms per cubic meter.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 204-225
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1997466
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1997466
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:204-225
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# input file: GMPS_A_1983323_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Christine Brasic
Author-X-Name-First: Christine
Author-X-Name-Last: Brasic
Author-Name: Latimer Harris-Ward
Author-X-Name-First: Latimer
Author-X-Name-Last: Harris-Ward
Author-Name: Fabio A. Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Author-Name: Carlos Bustamante-Orellana
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Bustamante-Orellana
Author-Name: Jordy Cevallos-Chavez
Author-X-Name-First: Jordy
Author-X-Name-Last: Cevallos-Chavez
Author-Name: Leon Arriola
Author-X-Name-First: Leon
Author-X-Name-Last: Arriola
Title: Lead toxicity in the bald eagle population of the Great Lakes region
Abstract:
Ingestion of lead-based ammunition is one of the leading causes of the mortality of bald eagles. Their primary source is unretrieved carrion contaminated with lead from hunters’ ammunition. Lead toxicity can have serious clinical consequences, including reduced fertility and consumption. A model with ordinary differential equations describes the dynamics of available contaminated carrion and the progression of eagles through stages of lead poisoning. Nonnegative solutions exist and equilibrium points are stable for certain parameter ranges. Sensitivity analysis shows that the bald eagle population in the Great Lakes region is primarily dependent on the rate of entry of contaminated carrion in the environment, more so than on retrieval or on the rate of treatment of eagles. Estimates of financial costs of each of these three measures show that the most effective measure is to find a substitute for lead cartridges.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 173-203
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1983323
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1983323
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:173-203
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# input file: GMPS_A_2051988_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Haydar Koç
Author-X-Name-First: Haydar
Author-X-Name-Last: Koç
Author-Name: Caner Tanış
Author-X-Name-First: Caner
Author-X-Name-Last: Tanış
Author-Name: Tolga Zaman
Author-X-Name-First: Tolga
Author-X-Name-Last: Zaman
Title: Poisson regression-ratio estimators of the population mean under double sampling, with application to Covid-19
Abstract:
Poisson regression is used to deal with count data. The Poisson regression ratio estimator of the population mean is extended from single to double sampling. This is made possible by the provision of the population mean of an auxiliary variable. The mean square errors of the proposed estimators are expressed up to the first order. Theoretical and numerical results demonstrate that the proposed double-sampling Poisson-regression ratio estimator has a lower mean square error than the double-ratio and the single-sampling estimator. For Covid-19, the minimum mean square errors yielded by the proposed estimator of the total number of cases are 0.095 cases per day and 67.8 cases, compared with 0.112 cases per day and 84.8 cases with the double-ratio estimator.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 226-240
Issue: 4
Volume: 29
Year: 2022
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2051988
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2051988
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:29:y:2022:i:4:p:226-240
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# input file: GMPS_A_139117_J.xml processed with: repec_from_tfjats.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: NOËL BONNEUIL
Author-X-Name-First: NOËL
Author-X-Name-Last: BONNEUIL
Author-Name: ROBERT CHUNG
Author-X-Name-First: ROBERT
Author-X-Name-Last: CHUNG
Title: Applied Mathematical Demography
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 223-228
Issue: 4
Volume: 12
Year: 2005
Month: 1
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480500391349
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480500391349
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:223-228
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# input file: GMPS_A_1996822_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Shuo Wang
Author-X-Name-First: Shuo
Author-X-Name-Last: Wang
Author-Name: Wangxue Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Wangxue
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Author-Name: Meng Chen
Author-X-Name-First: Meng
Author-X-Name-Last: Chen
Author-Name: Yawen Zhou
Author-X-Name-First: Yawen
Author-X-Name-Last: Zhou
Title: Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution using maximum rank set sampling with unequal samples
Abstract:
Maximum ranked set sampling with unequal samples is a sampling procedure used to reduce the error of ranking of observations and increase the efficiency of statistical inference. It is used for maximum likelihood estimation of the location and shape parameters of the inverse Gaussian distribution. Its asymptotic efficiency is at least 1.4 times higher than those of estimators based on simple random sampling. It is useful in reliability studies and in Bayesian statistics involving the inverse Gaussian distribution.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-21
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1996822
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2021.1996822
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:1-21
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# input file: GMPS_A_2075166_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Guihua Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Guihua
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Ting Wen
Author-X-Name-First: Ting
Author-X-Name-Last: Wen
Author-Name: Yuhuan Liu
Author-X-Name-First: Yuhuan
Author-X-Name-Last: Liu
Title: Determining the sample size of a post-enumeration survey: The case of China, 2020
Abstract:
Post-enumeration surveys are used to assess the quality of censuses. To set up such a survey, the size of the sample to be surveyed must be determined. If the sample design requires several strata, the design effect, which is the ratio of the variance of the two-source estimator to the variance of the single-source estimator for a given sample size, allows an indirect calculation. Another method is to use the sampling variance formula for a given sample size. The sample must have a sufficient total number of geographic subdivisions that are too small. A complete calculation of the sample size is implemented on an example from the 2020 Chinese post-enumeration survey.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 22-52
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2075166
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2075166
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:22-52
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# input file: GMPS_A_2029074_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20220907T060133 git hash: 85d61bd949
Author-Name: Noël Bonneuil
Author-X-Name-First: Noël
Author-X-Name-Last: Bonneuil
Author-Name: Elena Fursa
Author-X-Name-First: Elena
Author-X-Name-Last: Fursa
Title: Seasonal fluctuations of age classes, with application to South Russia, 1896-1897
Abstract:
Seasonal variations in age class sizes involve those of births and those of mortality across ages. They affect censuses and, consequently, rates involving numbers by age. As their analytical expression becomes inextricable, a simulation of aging cohorts by months of age shows that mortality oscillations for human populations are not sufficient to prevent age classes from oscillating approximately like associated births, contrary to what previous literature suggests. The amplification converges after damping, and the level reached depends on the amplification of mortality oscillations relative to births between 0 and 6 months of age. The damping rate depends mainly on the amplification of the mortality of 0–5 months compared to births. The application to 1896 South Russian data shows that age class sizes vary during the year like the births of the associated cohorts and that the numbers counted at the census vary strongly according to the month of the census.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 53-72
Issue: 1
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2029074
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2029074
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:1:p:53-72
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# input file: GMPS_A_2055870_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Siraj Muneer
Author-X-Name-First: Siraj
Author-X-Name-Last: Muneer
Author-Name: Alamgir Khalil
Author-X-Name-First: Alamgir
Author-X-Name-Last: Khalil
Author-Name: Javid Shabbir
Author-X-Name-First: Javid
Author-X-Name-Last: Shabbir
Title: Multivariate ratio exponential estimators of the population mean under stratified double sampling
Abstract:
To estimate the population mean when sampling a heterogeneous population and in the absence of a priori information on auxiliary variables, exponential-ratio multivariate estimators are associated under double stratified sampling with two auxiliary variables. Their biases and mean square errors are expressed and simulated. These mean square errors are smaller (the efficiencies are higher) than those of the sample mean estimator and those of other ratio estimators when the correlation between the study and the auxiliary variables exceeds 0.1 in absolute value. In particular, the proposed estimators are more efficient for low correlations between the study and the auxiliary variables. The gain in efficiency reaches a factor of 230.4% on an empirical dataset where the study variable is weakly correlated with each of the two auxiliary variables, and 182.1% on another empirical dataset where it is strongly correlated.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 122-141
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2055870
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2055870
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:122-141
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# input file: GMPS_A_2043067_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Liangping Qi
Author-X-Name-First: Liangping
Author-X-Name-Last: Qi
Author-Name: Guowei Zong
Author-X-Name-First: Guowei
Author-X-Name-Last: Zong
Title: Positive piecewise continuous quasi-periodic solutions to logistic impulsive differential equations
Abstract:
To prove the existence of piecewise continuous solutions to a logistic quasi-periodic differential system with impulses (whose coefficients have rationally independent periods), this system is divided into a differential equation and a difference equation. The quasi-periodicity of a function is proved by showing that this function is the uniform limit of a series of trigonometric polynomials with a finite total number of frequencies. The asymptotically stable quasi-periodic positive and piecewise continuous solution is proved to exist and to be unique. Quasi-periodic variation of the environment leads to a quasi-periodic growth of the population size in the sense that the rationally independent frequencies of the system are also frequencies of the quasi-periodic solution. The positive solutions have a repeated behavior similar to that of the quasi-periodic solution for a sufficiently long time due to asymptotical stability. The separation of the continuous-discrete system into a differential equation and a difference equation is a method of proving the existence of a quasi-periodic solution with perturbed coefficients of the impulsive system.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 95-121
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2043067
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2043067
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:95-121
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# input file: GMPS_A_2140561_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Elena Chernousova
Author-X-Name-First: Elena
Author-X-Name-Last: Chernousova
Author-Name: Ostap Hryniv
Author-X-Name-First: Ostap
Author-X-Name-Last: Hryniv
Author-Name: Stanislav Molchanov
Author-X-Name-First: Stanislav
Author-X-Name-Last: Molchanov
Title: Branching random walk in a random time-independent environment
Abstract:
In a lattice population model, particles move randomly from one site to another as independent random walks, split into two offspring, or die. If duplication and mortality rates are equal and take the same value over all lattice sites, the resulting model is a critical branching random walk (characterized by a mean total number of offspring equal to $$1$$1). There exists an asymptotical statistical equilibrium, also called steady state. In contrast, when duplication and mortality rates take independent random values drawn from a common nondegenerate distribution (so that the difference between duplication and mortality rates has nonzero variance), then the steady state no longer exists. Simultaneously, at all lattice sites, if the difference between duplication and mortality rates takes strictly positive values with strictly positive probability, the total number of particles grows exponentially. The lattice $${{\mathbb Z}^d}$$Zd includes large connected sets where the duplication rate exceeds the mortality rate by a positive constant amount, and these connected sets provide the growth of the total population. This is the supercritical regime of branching processes. On the other hand, if the difference between duplication and mortality rates is almost surely negative or null except when it is almost surely zero, then the total number of particles vanishes asymptotically. The steady state can be reached only if the difference between duplication and mortality rates is almost surely zero.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 73-94
Issue: 2
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2140561
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2140561
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:73-94
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# input file: GMPS_A_2133850_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Mehdi Bazyar
Author-X-Name-First: Mehdi
Author-X-Name-Last: Bazyar
Author-Name: Einolah Deiri
Author-X-Name-First: Einolah
Author-X-Name-Last: Deiri
Author-Name: Ezzatallah Baloui Jamkhaneh
Author-X-Name-First: Ezzatallah Baloui
Author-X-Name-Last: Jamkhaneh
Title: Parameter estimation for the Moore-Bilikam distribution under progressive type-II censoring, with application to failure times
Abstract:
The Moore-Bilikam distribution is convenient for survival analysis. The estimation of its parameters and its reliability function is performed by maximum likelihood, expectation-maximization, stochastic expectation-maximization, and the Bayesian method. The data are progressively censored of type II (samples are removed randomly from the experiment). Simulation shows that the expectation-maximization estimator of the parameter and the Bayesian-shrinkage estimator of the reliability function are the most efficient (with the minimum mean square error) when they are based on the Weibull and the Pareto distributions, which are specific cases of the Moore-Bilikam distribution. Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimations using the Moore-Bilikam distribution under type-II progressive censoring allow for fitting empirical failure times of an insulating fluid between two electrodes and the resistance of single carbon fibers. The associated reliability functions are estimated by each method.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 143-179
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2133850
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2133850
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:143-179
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# input file: GMPS_A_2139072_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Usman Shahzad
Author-X-Name-First: Usman
Author-X-Name-Last: Shahzad
Author-Name: Ishfaq Ahmad
Author-X-Name-First: Ishfaq
Author-X-Name-Last: Ahmad
Author-Name: Nadia H. Al-Noor
Author-X-Name-First: Nadia H.
Author-X-Name-Last: Al-Noor
Author-Name: Muhammad Hanif
Author-X-Name-First: Muhammad
Author-X-Name-Last: Hanif
Author-Name: Ibrahim Mufrah Almanjahie
Author-X-Name-First: Ibrahim Mufrah
Author-X-Name-Last: Almanjahie
Title: Robust estimation of the population mean using quantile regression under systematic sampling
Abstract:
Regression ratio mean estimators of a study variable $$Y$$Y are defined as the coefficients provided by the ordinary least-squares regression of $$Y$$Y on a given auxiliary variable $$X$$X. They can be improved by using the coefficient of variation and the coefficient of kurtosis of $$X$$X. The influence of outliers on the estimates of the population mean of $$Y$$Y is neutralized by calculating robust regression coefficients, obtained by the method of either least absolute deviations, Huber-M, Huber-MM, Hampel-M, Tukey-M, or adjusted least squares. These robust coefficients are used to estimate the population mean of $$Y$$Y under simple random sampling. Extension to systematic sampling—which is a probability sampling in which every element of the population has equal probability of inclusion to be drawn—using the coefficients provided by quantile regression—whose coefficients result from the minimization of the sum of absolute deviations rather than from the square deviations from the regression line—requires ratio estimators of the population mean of $$Y$$Y. The mean square errors of these estimators are expressed analytically. If the quantile regression coefficient is greater than the ratio of the covariance between the study and the auxiliary variables to the variance of the auxiliary variable minus a function of the mean or the coefficient of variation, skewness, or kurtosis of $$X$$X and $$Y$$Y, then the proposed robust quantile regression mean estimator of $$Y$$Y is more efficient than the ratio estimators in the presence of outliers under systematic sampling. The reason is that these estimators only use regression coefficients and not the ratio between the population mean and sample means of the auxiliary variable $$X$$X. The aforementioned condition occurs with the values of the case study. For empirical data of 176 forest strips, the proposed estimate of the volume of timber is over 30% more efficient than the ratio estimates based on quantile regression coefficients.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 195-207
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2139072
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2139072
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:195-207
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# input file: GMPS_A_2145790_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Natthapat Thongsak
Author-X-Name-First: Natthapat
Author-X-Name-Last: Thongsak
Author-Name: Nuanpan Lawson
Author-X-Name-First: Nuanpan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lawson
Title: Bias and mean square error reduction by changing the shape of the distribution of an auxiliary variable: application to air pollution data in Nan, Thailand
Abstract:
The proposed estimator of the population mean is based on a modification of the shape of the distribution of an auxiliary variable. If the theoretical correlation between the study and the auxiliary variables is less than a term that is proportional to the coefficient of variation of the auxiliary variable divided by the coefficient of variation of the study variable, then the modification of the distribution of the auxiliary variable reduces the bias and the mean square error of the estimator. A simulation confirms the analytical results. Application to air pollution data in Nan, Thailand, shows that on average, the biases of the estimators based on the modified auxiliary variable are reduced by 70% to 98% and the mean square errors by 91% to 100% compared to the estimators based on the unmodified auxiliary variable.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 180-194
Issue: 3
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 07
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2145790
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2145790
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:3:p:180-194
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# input file: GMPS_A_2165338_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Layla Basri
Author-X-Name-First: Layla
Author-X-Name-Last: Basri
Author-Name: Driss Bouggar
Author-X-Name-First: Driss
Author-X-Name-Last: Bouggar
Author-Name: Mohamed El Fatini
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed
Author-X-Name-Last: El Fatini
Author-Name: Mohamed El Khalifi
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed
Author-X-Name-Last: El Khalifi
Author-Name: Aziz Laaribi
Author-X-Name-First: Aziz
Author-X-Name-Last: Laaribi
Title: Extinction and persistence in a stochastic Nicholson’s model of blowfly population with delay and Lévy noise
Abstract:
Existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution are proved for a stochastic Nicholson’s equation of a blowfly population with delay and Lévy noise. The first-order moment of the solution is bounded and the mean of its second moment is finite. A threshold quantity $${{\cal T}\!_j}$$Tj depending on the parameters is involved in the drift, the diffusion parameter, and the magnitude and distribution of jumps. The blowfly population goes extinct exponentially fast when $${{\cal T}\!_j} \lt 1$$Tj<1. It persists when $${{\cal T}\!_j} \gt 1.$$Tj>1. The case $${{\cal T}\!_s} = 1$$Ts=1 does not allow for knowing whether the population goes extinct or not.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 209-228
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2165338
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2165338
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:209-228
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# input file: GMPS_A_2191562_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Héctor Saib Maravillo Gomez
Author-X-Name-First: Héctor Saib
Author-X-Name-Last: Maravillo Gomez
Author-Name: Gilberto Calvillo Vives
Author-X-Name-First: Gilberto
Author-X-Name-Last: Calvillo Vives
Author-Name: Erick Treviño Aguilar
Author-X-Name-First: Erick
Author-X-Name-Last: Treviño Aguilar
Title: The population sizes of Mexican cities follow a power-law distribution
Abstract:
Geography, for example because of the presence of rivers, ravines, or peaks, can subdivide a city. These subdivisions raise the question of identifying the area occupied by the city, of deciding whether or not they are aggregates of distinct built-up areas, and whether or not geographical separations are merely asperities in a certain continuum of built-up areas. The city as a union of administrative units allows for jurisdictional practices, but for public policy in health for example, identification by built-up areas is more operational. The study of urban populations thus requires that cities be circumscribed on objective criteria. Circumscribing a city requires knowledge of commuting flows, but in the absence of this piece of information, circumscribing it relies on the fact that it is made up of close built-up areas. This is reflected in the intersection of the convex envelopes of the spatial extent of these built-up areas. The algorithm treats coordinates of the vertices of polygons encompassing built-up areas provided by the Census Bureau for the United States or the National Institute of Statistics and Geography for Mexico. It allows for computing whether convex hulls of polygons intersect or not. If they do, then the built-up areas circumscribed by these polygons are part of the same city. The result is that cities now reflect the geographic extent of urban areas rather than their administrative areas. With this delineation method applied to Mexico’s 2020 census data, the population sizes of urban areas with at least 2,126 inhabitants follow a power law, with exponent 0.954 (standard deviation = 0.016), whereas this is no longer the case when considering only the administrative extents of cities with more than 15,000 inhabitants.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 249-268
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2191562
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2191562
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:249-268
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# input file: GMPS_A_2155415_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20230119T200553 git hash: 724830af20
Author-Name: Federico Benassi
Author-X-Name-First: Federico
Author-X-Name-Last: Benassi
Author-Name: Alessia Naccarato
Author-X-Name-First: Alessia
Author-X-Name-Last: Naccarato
Author-Name: Meng Xu
Author-X-Name-First: Meng
Author-X-Name-Last: Xu
Title: Daily Covid-19 infected population densities in Italian provinces follow Taylor’s law
Abstract:
Taylor’s law states that the spatial variance of the population density varies as the power function of the mean population density. This law is tested on daily Covid-19 infection density for five periods between February 25, 2020 and March 15, 2021. The Italian provinces are grouped by geography into three ensembles. A simultaneous-equation model accounts for correlations between the ensembles, between Italian provinces within each ensemble, and for temporal autocorrelations. The selected periods show ensembles with all Taylor’s law slopes below 2 (reflecting State interventions at the national level), or all above 2 (reflecting interventions at the local level), or some ensembles above while others were below. Slope of Taylor’s law and average density trend indicate whether the infection density is highly concentrated in a few provinces (when the slope is greater than 2 with increasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with decreasing density) or spread evenly among all provinces in an ensemble (when the slope is greater than 2 with decreasing density, and when the slope is less than 2 with increasing density), which allows the government and epidemiologists to design disease control policies for targeted provinces and ensembles in Italy.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 229-248
Issue: 4
Volume: 30
Year: 2023
Month: 10
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2022.2155415
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2022.2155415
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:30:y:2023:i:4:p:229-248
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# input file: GMPS_A_2251852_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Mohammad Hossein Zarinkolah
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Hossein
Author-X-Name-Last: Zarinkolah
Author-Name: Hadi Jabbari
Author-X-Name-First: Hadi
Author-X-Name-Last: Jabbari
Author-Name: Mohammad Mehdi Saber
Author-X-Name-First: Mohammad Mehdi
Author-X-Name-Last: Saber
Title: Optimal estimators of the population mean of a skewed distribution using auxiliary variables in median ranked-set sampling
Abstract:
In an asymmetric population, individuals are concentrated toward one tail of the distribution. An estimator of the population mean in this asymmetric case is constructed on the basis of median ranked-set sampling, that is, the population is divided into subsets of equal size and the intersections of these sets depend on the chosen order of ranking according to a known auxiliary variable. Ranking individuals according to this auxiliary variable should approximate their ranking with respect to the unknown variable of interest. This procedure is a cost-effective way of selecting the sample when the variable of interest is unknown. To do this, the auxiliary variable must be at least weakly correlated with the variable of interest. The proposed estimator extends that constructed with extreme ranked-set sampling, whose principle is to divide the population into subsets whose intersections depend on the extreme values of the auxiliary variable. The mean square error of the estimator is expressed analytically. A simulation allows for comparing the proposed estimator with estimators based on simple random sampling and with those based on sampling sets of extreme values. A simulation shows that when the response variable is correlated with both auxiliary variables, even if these correlations are weak, around 0.5 in absolute value, then the mean square error of the proposed estimator is at least 175% lower than the mean square error of estimators based either on simple random or on extreme ranked-set samplings. A first application focuses on household incomes in the Iranian provinces of Fars and Khuzestan in 2022, first with the single gross income, which is the total income that an individual or household earns before tax as auxiliary variable and then with the two auxiliary variables of total gross household income and wages paid year-round to heads of households through the banking network. In this application, the mean square error of the proposed estimator with median ranked-set sampling is at least 60% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings. In the application of the physical preparation score with runners’ track records as an auxiliary variable concerning 160 Iranian athletes in 2022 with sample sizes of 6, 8, 10, 25, and 30, the mean square error of the proposed estimator with median ranked-set sampling is at least 50% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings. In the third application of the COVID-19 mean mortality rate in 2022 in the USA, Iran, Turkey, and Germany, with sample sizes of 6, 8, 10, 25, and 30, estimations of the mean mortality rate are based on new cases. In each of the four countries, the mean square error of the proposed estimator under median ranked-set sampling is at least 60% lower than that obtained with simple random and extreme ranked-set samplings.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 62-85
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2251852
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2251852
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:1:p:62-85
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# input file: GMPS_A_2244358_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Yanhua Huang
Author-X-Name-First: Yanhua
Author-X-Name-Last: Huang
Author-Name: Guihua Hu
Author-X-Name-First: Guihua
Author-X-Name-Last: Hu
Author-Name: Di Wu
Author-X-Name-First: Di
Author-X-Name-Last: Wu
Author-Name: Renjing Zheng
Author-X-Name-First: Renjing
Author-X-Name-Last: Zheng
Title: Estimation of the net error rate of population size in China’s household registration
Abstract:
A combined three-source estimator is used to estimate the net error rate of population size in household registration. It avoids the bias in the two-source estimator due to the fact that the registration of an individual on one list affects his or her registration on another list. It makes better use of frequencies than the ordinary three-source estimator. It yields an estimated net error rate that is closest to 1% of error. The combined three-source estimator combines missing-cell estimators of ordinary three-source estimators working on the contingency table of presence or absence in the census population list, the post-enumeration survey population list, and the household population list. Matching of these three registration lists is filled into the seven non-missing cells of the contingency table. The missing-cell estimator involved in the combined three-source estimator is based on the missing-cell estimators of the ordinary three-source estimators. It requires that the three population lists fully register the post-strata population. In the case of sample registration, it is based on the sampling weights and population sizes of the sampled small census areas. It provides a lower mean square error than the ordinary three-source estimator, which itself provides a lower mean square error than the two-source estimator. The estimated 0.96% net under-registration rate of population size for the country as a whole in household registration is close to the 1.00% rate found in the rectification of household registration carried out by China’s Ministry of Public Security between May 15, 2010, and September 30, 2010. Despite the bias coming from the residual heterogeneity of individuals in each post-stratum, as the sample can only accommodate a limited total number of post-strata, the combined three-source estimator should yield a smaller mean square error than the ordinary three-source estimator of the net error rate of population size in household registration.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 40-61
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2244358
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2244358
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:1:p:40-61
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# input file: GMPS_A_2225349_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20231214T103247 git hash: d7a2cb0857
Author-Name: Yajie Tian
Author-X-Name-First: Yajie
Author-X-Name-Last: Tian
Author-Name: Yingna Liang
Author-X-Name-First: Yingna
Author-X-Name-Last: Liang
Author-Name: Wenhao Gui
Author-X-Name-First: Wenhao
Author-X-Name-Last: Gui
Title: Inference and optimal censoring scheme for a competing-risks model with type-II progressive censoring
Abstract:
For statistical inference of competing risks under type-II progressive censoring, lifetimes are modeled by an inverted exponential Rayleigh distribution, which allows the use of a non-monotonic hazard function. Maximum-likelihood estimators for all parameters exist and are unique. The Newton-Raphson algorithm and maximum stochastic expectation each provide estimates. Confidence intervals result from the Fisher matrix and the asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimators. For small samples, the Bootstrap estimators of the parameters do not need to be asymptotically normal. In addition, the Monte Carlo method with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and importance sampling allow for Bayesian estimation, with the associated highest posterior-density intervals. The Bayesian method takes account of prior information, contrary to the frequentist method. The Bootstrap method improves the precision of the estimation, especially in the case of small sample sizes. The estimated range obtained by Bootstrap is between 20% and 60% smaller than that obtained by maximum likelihood. Frequentist and Bayesian estimations using the inverted exponentiated Rayleigh distribution under type-II progressive censoring allow for fitting empirical mouse mortality data and obtaining parameter estimates of this distribution. A quantile-dependent criterion and a quantile-independent criterion are used to determine the optimal censoring and to design the experiment.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 1-39
Issue: 1
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 01
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2225349
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2225349
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# input file: GMPS_A_2301868_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Carlos Bustamante Orellana
Author-X-Name-First: Carlos
Author-X-Name-Last: Bustamante Orellana
Author-Name: Jordan Lyerla
Author-X-Name-First: Jordan
Author-X-Name-Last: Lyerla
Author-Name: Aaron Martin
Author-X-Name-First: Aaron
Author-X-Name-Last: Martin
Author-Name: Fabio Milner
Author-X-Name-First: Fabio
Author-X-Name-Last: Milner
Author-Name: Elisha Smith
Author-X-Name-First: Elisha
Author-X-Name-Last: Smith
Title: Estimating the structure by age and sex of the US sexually active population
Abstract:
A model combines demographic data provided by the United States Census Bureau for 2021 with survey data on sexual activity from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the structure by age and sex of the sexually active population in the United States. It also provides the proportions of newly sexually active people by age and sex. The model is based on percentages of sexually active people by age and sex, and on an ordinary differential equation formalizing a “learning process” for the years 2009 to 2019. The data produced fit well with the empirical data for each age and sex.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 105-115
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2024.2301868
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2024.2301868
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:2:p:105-115
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# input file: GMPS_A_2301865_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Hassan S. Bakouch
Author-X-Name-First: Hassan S.
Author-X-Name-Last: Bakouch
Author-Name: Fatemeh Gharari
Author-X-Name-First: Fatemeh
Author-X-Name-Last: Gharari
Author-Name: Kadir Karakaya
Author-X-Name-First: Kadir
Author-X-Name-Last: Karakaya
Author-Name: Yunus Akdoğan
Author-X-Name-First: Yunus
Author-X-Name-Last: Akdoğan
Title: Fractional Lindley distribution generated by time scale theory, with application to discrete-time lifetime data
Abstract:
The fractional Lindley distribution is used to model the distribution of perturbations in count data regressions, which allow for dealing with widely dispersed data. It is obtained from the non-fractional Lindley distribution by replacing the support $\mathbb{T} = {\mathbb{R}^ + }$T=R+ by ${\mathbb{T}} = {\mathbb{N}}\backslash \{ 0\} $T=N∖{0} and applying time scale theory, whose ambition is to unify the theories of difference equations and differential equations, integral and differential calculus, and the calculus of finite differences. It thus provides a framework for the study of dynamical systems in discrete-continuous time. Delta moments are discrete-time Laplace transforms of the frequency function of the fractional Lindley distribution. The parameter of the fractional Lindley distribution is estimated by least squares, weighted least squares, maximum likelihood, moments, and proportions. The moment estimator always exists, so that delta moments result from the nabla Laplace transform of the frequency function of the fractional Lindley distribution. The maximum likelihood estimates have the least mean-square errors. The proportion method works satisfactorily only when the mode of the distribution is null and the proportion of zeros is high. A simulation allows for quantifying the mean-square errors associated with the estimators. A count regression based on the fractional Lindley distribution with data on the total number of stays after hospital admission among U.S. residents aged 65 and over shows that the Akaike information criteria is significantly lower than with the uniform Poisson and Poisson regressions.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 116-146
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2024.2301865
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2024.2301865
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# input file: GMPS_A_2264662_J.xml processed with: repec_from_jats12.xsl darts-xml-transformations-20240209T083504 git hash: db97ba8e3a
Author-Name: Islam M. Elbaz
Author-X-Name-First: Islam M.
Author-X-Name-Last: Elbaz
Author-Name: Mohamed A. Sohaly
Author-X-Name-First: Mohamed A.
Author-X-Name-Last: Sohaly
Author-Name: Hamdy A. El-Metwally
Author-X-Name-First: Hamdy A.
Author-X-Name-Last: El-Metwally
Title: Optimizing criterion for the upper limit of the signal response of brain neurons
Abstract:
In a model of signal transmission between brain neurons, the Lyapunov functions associated with the “no signal” solution are positive and have a negative derivative with respect to the response. The solution is stable for a response range. Noise added to signal transmission and response enhances stability by allowing the system to escape tricky equilibria. It amplifies weak signals, improves detection and distinction of significant signals from background noise, and generates appropriate and adaptive responses to detected signals. It causes random fluctuations, allowing more parameter values to be tried out and thus optimizing the behavior of the system, enabling it to transmit and respond effectively to signals in the presence of the variability inherent in biological networks. The deterministic model is thus enhanced by its stochastic extension.
Journal: Mathematical Population Studies
Pages: 87-104
Issue: 2
Volume: 31
Year: 2024
Month: 04
X-DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2023.2264662
File-URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08898480.2023.2264662
File-Format: text/html
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Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:31:y:2024:i:2:p:87-104