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Abstract: This paper builds upon the analysis of Orphanides and Wilcox (1996) to evaluate optimal anti-inflation policy under a broader set of circumstances than considered in their work. We consider a monetary authority with two instruments--the funds rate and the discount rate--with the distinction that only movements of the latter are 'credible' alterations of the Fed's policy stance, reflecting reputational effects. The public forms expectations of inflation given realized inflation and the expected progress toward lower inflation, as evidenced by credible policy moves. Optimal policy is formulated in a stochastic, dynamic setting of the Tinbergen-Theil framework. The presence of a "cost-of-change" penalty on the sequence of discount rate adjustments generates expected trajectories for targets and policy instruments which differ considerably from those lacking such a penalty.
Abstract: This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.
Abstract: The non-negativity constraint on inventories imposed on the rational expectations theory of speculative storage implies that the conditional mean and variance of commodity prices are nonlinear in lagged prices and have a kink at a threshold point. In this paper, the structural parameters of this model are estimated using three simulation based estimators. The finite sample properties of the Simulated Methods of Moments estimator of Duffie and Singleton (1993), the Indirect Inference estimator of Gourieroux, Monfort and Renault (1993), and the matching score estimator of Gallant and Tauchen (1996) are assessed. Exploiting the invariant distribution implied by the theory allows us to assess the error induced by simulations. Our results show that while all three estimators produce reasonably good estimates with properties that stack up well with those of the PMLE, there are tradeoffs among the three estimators in terms of bias, efficiency, and computation demands. Some estimators are more sensitive to the sample size and the number of simulations than others. A careful choice of the moments/auxiliary models can lead to a substantial reduction in bias and an improvement in efficiency. Increasing the number of simulated data points can sometimes reduce the bias and improve the efficiency of the estimates when the sample size is small.
Abstract: This paper compares six term structure estimation methods in terms of actual ex ante price and yield prediction accuracy. Specifically, we examine the models' ability to price Treasuries for one to five trading days ahead. The models' performance differs markedly between in- and out-of-sample predictions. Their relative success also depends on time, the forecast horizon, and whether price or yield errors are compared. We examine the degree of loss in accuracy the modeler incurs by not using the best method: in particular, we compare the more complex splining methods and the parsimonious Nelson-Siegel model.
Abstract: In this paper, we compare the patterns of labor force withdrawal of older workers in seven OECD countries. We find wide variation in retirement patterns and recent trends. In Sweden and the United States, for example, it is relatively common for workers to combine retirement benefits and earnings (i.e., to continue working while "retired"), while in Australia, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and (West) Germany, this is much less common. These countries have also had very different experiences in arresting the postwar trend toward earlier retirement. After significant declines prior to 1985, the labor force participation rates of older men in Australia, West Germany and the United States have been almost unchanged, while the pre-1985 trends have continued unabated in Sweden and Canada. The challenge to researchers is to correlate the diverse public policies in these countries with the very different labor market experiences observed.
Abstract: Ever since the development of the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model (Engle [1982]), testing for the presence of ARCH has become a routine diagnostic. One popular method of testing for ARCH is T times the R^2 from a regression of squared residuals on p of its lags. This test has been shown to have a Lagrange multiplier interpretation and is asymptotically distributed as a Chi^2(p) random variable. Underlying this test is the assumption of a correctly specified conditional mean. In this paper, we consider the properties of the ARCH test when there is a possibly misspecified conditional mean. Examples of misspecification include omitted variables, structural change, and parameter instability. We show that misspecification will lead to overrejection of the null of conditional homoskedasticity. We demonstrate the use of recursive residuals to improve the fit of a first stage conditional mean regression. We illustrate these results via Monte Carlo simulation and consider two empirical examples.
Abstract: It is widely known that when there are negative moving average errors, a high order augmented autoregression is necessary for unit root tests to have good size, but that information criteria such as the AIC and BIC tend to select a truncation lag that is very small. Furthermore, size distortions increase with the number of deterministic terms in the regression. We trace these problems to the fact that information criteria omit important biases induced by a low order augmented autoregression. We consider a class of Modified Information Criteria (MIC) which account for the fact that the bias in the sum of the autoregressive coefficients is highly dependent on the lag order k. Using a local asymptotic framework in which the root of an MA(1) process is local to -1, we show that the MIC allows for added dependence between k and the number of deterministic terms in the regression. Most importantly, the k selected by the recommended MAIC is such that both its level and rate of increase with the sample size are desirable for unit root tests in the local asymptotic framework, whereas the AIC, MBIC and especially the BIC are less attractive in at least one dimension. In monte-carlo experiments, the MAIC is found to yield huge size improvements to the DF(GLS) and the feasible point optimal P(t) test developed in Elliot, Rothenberg and Stock (1996). We also extend the M tests developed in Perron and Ng (1996) to allow for GLS detrending of the data. The M(GLS) tests are shown to have power functions that lie very close to the power envelope. In addition, we recommend using GLS detrended data to estimate the required autoregressive spectral density at frequency zero. This provides more efficient estimates on the one hand, and ensures that the estimate of the spectral density is invariant to the parameters of the deterministic trend function, a property not respected by the estimation procedure currently employed by several studies. The MAIC along with GLS detrended data yield a set of Mbar(GLS) tests with desirable size and power properties.
Abstract: Flexible functional forms of indirect utility and expenditure functions are frequently used in approximating the behavior of utility maximizing consumers to arrive at demand systems that can be easily estimated. A common finding in time series estimations of the Almost Ideal Demand System is strong persistence in the estimated residuals. This paper suggests two explanations for this result. First, the functions used to approximate total expenditure does not allow for the possibility of economic growth. Hence when the data on expenditure have trends, the inadequacy of the approximation results in residuals that are serially correlated. Second, when the economy grows and/or prices trend at different rates, Stone's price index provides a poor approximation to the theoretically appropriate price variable. The consequence is also reflected in the error term. Simulations are used to illustrate these arguments and cointegration is proposed as a guide to model specification.
Abstract: Because currently anticipated Social Security revenues are inadequate to pay for promised benefits, reform of the Social Security program is likely. Several different plans to restore the program to actuarial balance have emerged, and more will arise as the debate continues. Comparison and evaluation of these alternatives require a framework for analysis and criteria along which to judge their strengths and weaknesses. After discussing the goals of the Social Security system, we identify three main criteria (income adequacy, individual equity and economic growth), and propose several other issues for consideration.
Abstract: This paper uses data from the Luxembourg Income Study to explore the role of differences in supply shifts in explaining cross-national differences in the rise in earnings inequality. Changes in returns to age and education are estimated for eight countries using a common specification of earnings functions across years and countries. We find that the small overall increase in earnings inequality in many countries reflects large but offsetting changes in returns to skill and changes in inequality within age education cells. Furthermore, these differences in returns to skill can largely be explained by differences in supply shifts.
Abstract: Threshold regression methods are developed for non-dynamic panels with individual-specific fixed effects. Least squares estimation of the threshold and regression slopes is proposed using fixed-effects transformations. A non-standard asymptotic theory of inference is developed which allows construction of confidence intervals and testing of hypotheses. The methods are applied to a 15-year sample of 565 U.S. firms to test whether financial constraints affect investment decisions.
Abstract: A case is made that today's graduate students in economics must master early on a computational environment suitable for their research needs. The virtues of Mathematica for this purpose are highlighted. Descriptions of its elements that are particularly suited for this need are given along with examples of the kind of economic research successfully accomplished in the environment.
Abstract: In the United States, eradication of persistent federal deficits has won broad bipartisan support. At the same time, political pressures have mounted to strengthen the Federal Reserve's explicit concern with price stability. Proposals under consideration would require a much narrower focus on the part of Fed policymakers, and could be interpreted as targeting the price level rather than a negligible rate of inflation. The deficit-reduction and price-stability policies should be analysed in combination, as reductions in the real interest rate triggered by lower deficits will have an impact on optimal monetary policy with anti-inflation and stabilization objectives. This paper builds upon the analysis of Orphanides and Wilcox (1996) to evaluate optimal anti-inflation policy under a broader set of circumstances than considered in their work. We consider a monetary authority with two instruments--the funds rate (or rate of base money growth) and the discount rate--with the distinction that only movements of the latter are 'credible' alterations of the Fed's policy stance, reflecting reputational effects. The public forms expectations of inflation given realized inflation and the expected progress toward lower inflation, as evidenced by credible policy moves and the gradual eradication of the fiscal deficit. The interaction between deficit reduction policy and the optimal monetary trajectory is analysed, and the implications for the coordination of these strategies considered via stochastic simulations of the model. The impacts of a price level stabilization target on the Fed and a balanced-budget rule on the fiscal authorities are contrasted with their more flexible counterparts: an inflation target and restriction on deficit spending. Our results indicate that these more stringent political constraints on economic policy could have severe consequences on the ability of the monetary and fiscal authorities to mitigate adverse economic shocks.
Abstract:Although officially off the table during the recent Presidential campaign, Social Security finances are very much in the news these days. Any discussion of Federal budget balance raises the topic, because Social Security expenditures are the largest item in the Federal budget. This paper discusses the size and timing of the Social Security funding problem, and asks whether there is a Social Security crisis and whether Social Security can be rescued without radical reform. The options proposed by the President's Social Security Advisory Board are then reviewed, followed by a discussion of some pros and cons of partial privatization, the most controversial component of the reform plans.
Abstract: We test for long memory in 3- and 6-month daily returns series on Eurocurrency deposits denominated in Japanese yen (Euroyen). The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. The conflicting evidence obtained from the application of tests against a unit root as well as tests against stationarity provides the motivation for testing for fractional roots. Significant evidence of positive long-range dependence is found in the Euroyen returns series. The estimated fractional models result in dramatic out-of-sample forecasting improvements over longer horizons compared to benchmark linear models, thus providing strong evidence against the martingale model.
Abstract: There is widespread concern about the effect of the Uruguay Round policy changes on world agricultural prices and consequently upon the welfare of developing countries. Assessing welfare changes with the standard terms of trade effect calculation can be misleading for distorted economies, since the distortion effect operates in addition or in opposition to the terms of trade effect. This study reveals distortion effects which are many times larger than terms of trade effects in a study of the Uruguay Round's impact on 9 agricultural economies. In 3 of 9 cases, the distortion effect reverses the impact of the terms of trade effect. In 2 other cases the distortion effect raises a trivial terms of trade effect up to around 1% of national income.
Abstract: A key provision of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 was prompt corrective action (PCA). PCA emphasized early intervention by bank supervisors and was intended to limit forbearance by making supervisory intervention more timely and less discretionary. However, PCA, as implemented, appears to have been oversold. Had PCA been in place during the recent banking crisis in New England, it would have had little, if any, effect. Since it imposes an essentially nonbinding constraint on bank supervisors, PCA is not likely to play a major role in preventing the next banking crisis.
Abstract : Derivatives have become an essential instrument for hedging risks, yet moral hazard can lead to their misuse by problem banks. Given that the absence of comprehensive data on bank derivatives activities prevents an accurate assessment of bank risk-taking, banks have an opportunity to take unmonitored second bets. Thus, troubled banks have the motive to increase risk, and derivatives provide the means to do so. The role of bank supervisors should be to limit the opportunity through more comprehensive data reporting requirements and closer supervisory scrutiny of derivatives activity at problem banks. Because a relatively large number of banks active in the derivatives market have low capital ratios and are considered institutions with a significant risk of failure by bank supervisors, the possible misuse of derivatives by troubled banks should be of concern to regulators. However, we find no evidence that the volume of derivatives activity at troubled banks affects the probability of formal regulatory intervention or even a downgrade in supervisory rating.
Abstract : One of the more dramatic financial events of the late 1980s and early 1990s was the surge in Japanese stock prices that was immediately followed by a very sharp decline of more than 50 percent. While the unprecedented fluctuations in Japanese stock prices were domestic financial shocks, the unique institutional characteristics of the Japanese economy produce a framework that is particularly suited to the transmission of such shocks to other countries through the behavior of the Japanese banking system. The large size of Japanese bank lending operations in the United States enables us to use U.S. banking data to investigate the extent to which this domestic Japanese financial shock was transmitted to the United States, as well as to identify a supply shock to U.S. bank lending that is independent of U.S. loan demand. We find that binding risk-based capital requirements associated with the decline in the Japanese stock market resulted in a decline in commercial lending by Japanese banks in the United States that was both economically and statistically significant. This finding has added importance given the severe real estate loan problems currently faced by Japanese banks. How Japanese bank regulators decide to resolve these problems will have significant implications for credit availability in the United States as well as in other countries with a significant Japanese bank presence.
Abstract:We test for stochastic long memory in the Greek stock market, an emerging capital market. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. Contrary to findings for major capital markets, significant and robust evidence of positive long-term persistence is found in the Greek stock market. As compared to benchmark linear models, the estimated fractional models provide improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Greek stock returns series over longer forecasting horizons.
Abstract: There are constraints on pricing congestible facilities. First, if heterogeneous users are observationally indistinguishable, then congestion charges must be anonymous. Second, the time variation of congestion charges may be constrained. Do these constraints undermine the feasibility of marginal cost pricing, and hence the applicability of the first-best theory of congestible facilities? We show that if heterogeneous users behave identically when using the congestible facility and if the time variation of congestion charges is unconstrained, then marginal cost pricing is feasible with anonymous congestion charges. If, however, the time variation of congestion charges is constrained, optimal pricing with anonymous congestion charges entails Ramsey pricing.
Abstract: Arnott and Stiglitz (1993) have argued that, in competitive insurance markets with moral hazard, equilibrium may entail firms offering latent policies--policies that are not bought in equilibrium but are kept in place to deter entry. This paper provides an extended example of such an equilibrium, which not only proces that latent policies can be present in equilibrium but also elucidates the mechanism which makes them potentially effective in deterring entry.
Abstract: This paper highlights the role of takeover defenses in the acquisition process. If managerial defensive effort is fixed, the unregulated level of takeover activity is lower than socially desirable since shareholders regard the financial incentives given to raiders to stimulate takeover activity as a cost, while society views them as a transfer. We show that this result no longer holds if defensive effort is variable -- the unregulated market for corporate control will generate excessive takeovers. One implication of our analysis is that in the presence of substantial anti-takeover related expenditures the gains from takeover will be overestimated. These gains include the benefits from dismantling defenses which were installed because of the takeover threat.